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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the betting markets a December general election is now even

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  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    timmo said:

    Danny565 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    timmo said:

    I have just been looking at Labour Majorities in london and a lot of them are vast.
    In some seats where you would think the Lib dems may have a sniff they polled in the hundreds last time versus majs of 30k

    Yes it's in the peripheries and West Country that the LDs have the best prospects. London itself is pretty solidly Labour.
    Other than St Ives, I would have thought the West Country would be far from easy territory for the libdems.
    Cheltenham? Wells? Bath? Even the Cotswolds if its Blimpish MP cooperates.

    I think they'll do OK, but it's outer London and surrounds that offer most chances.
    Bath is a good call.

    I'm not sure the Cotswolds count as the West Country
    The Lib Dems already hold Bath...

    I'm not sure even the most LD-sceptic is predicting them to lose seats they already hold (except North Norfolk if Norman Lamb is standing down?).

    In terms of gains, I'd only say they're favourites in Sheffield Hallam, Richmond Park and Cheltenham. Maybe St Albans and Lewes at a push. I think St Ives will be a tough nut to crack, despite the small majority.
    There is talk of Zac Goldsmith moving to Sam Gymiahs seat
    Sam Gymiah has a majority of 23,914 in East Surrey. I wonder if Zac can lose that to a LibDem. He lost his majority of 23,015 in Richmond Park to Sarah Olney (majority 1,872) in the Richmond Park by election in 2016 so he certainly has the talent to do so.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    Stocky said:

    justin124 said: "That - if successful - would push Polling Day back to 17th December."

    Yes - 14 days plus 25 days - I`m banking on 2019 being impossible hence my 2020 + GE bets.

    Taking account of St Andrews Day , perhaps a successful VNOC pushes it back to 18th December!
    Didn’t the QS pass with a reasonable majority? Not sure why you think a VONC would succeed.
    It wouldn't succeed now I think. DUP would back Gov't and so would the ex Tory indies. Numbers very similar to QS.
    There were about 10 Labour MPs absent for the QS vote . They would be present for a VNOC. Change UK also abstained.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    letter (with SSAE for me to reply), asking things like "Will you help us get Brexit over the line?" and "Will you donate £50 to stop Jeremy Corbyn?" I've not asked them to desist - it adds a little amusement to each week.

    You should support the Royal Mail. And if they're paying the postage it would be rude not to send a response.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Deep thought: You might think, "surely this can't go on until May, 2022". But it could, couldn't it?
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