Judging by labour spokespeople this morning and McDonnell just now, the lib dems have blindsided them and they are incandescent with rage
If this gets out of control labour and lib dems will be in full on battle to win the propaganda war and Boris slips through the midddle
There is a danger for the lib dems in as much it may secure a 5 year Boris government in which case the tuition fee debacle will look like a walk in the park
However, if it goes well and the lib dems hold the balance of power they get their referendum and will have won a spectacular result
Fair play to Jo Swinson and her advisors, they have gambled big time on this
Under the FTPA a Parliament elected in December this year will be dissolved at the end of March 2024 - ie 4 years and 3 months! Polling Day would be first week of May 2024.
Judging by labour spokespeople this morning and McDonnell just now, the lib dems have blindsided them and they are incandescent with rage
If this gets out of control labour and lib dems will be in full on battle to win the propaganda war and Boris slips through the midddle
There is a danger for the lib dems in as much it may secure a 5 year Boris government in which case the tuition fee debacle will look like a walk in the park
However, if it goes well and the lib dems hold the balance of power they get their referendum and will have won a spectacular result
Fair play to Jo Swinson and her advisors, they have gambled big time on this
Under the FTPA a Parliament elected in December this year will be dissolved at the end of March 2024 - ie 4 years and 3 months! Polling Day would be first week of May 2024.
Good point on South Cambridgeshire, I'd agree with you on that.
I think Bermondsey only falls if the LDs top 20% nationally. Simon Hughes's personal vote wearing off would probably almost cancel out a modest "natural" swing to the LibDems there I think. Cheadle and Hazel Grove are plausible LD gains, I guess.
I'd actually say Southport is possibly the most likely Labour gain in the country (though still not that likely).
Both Cheadle and Hazel Grove are in the Stockport council area, and the LDs did very well there this year, doubling their seat count, almost entirely at the expense of the Conservatives. Cheadle is also very Remainy.
I'd reckon in the former, the LDs would be good favourites, and in the latter, narrow ones.
2. The immediacy of the forgiveness of Boris by Leavers for failing to deliver his do or die pledge.
It's too early to judge that. Many people will only notice when we're still in the EU in November, and some not even then.
Ever since he was elected it's been an amusing sport for Leavers to watch Remainers discussing amongst themselves why each twist of events turned out not to be the expected final straw that caused Leavers to turn on Johnson.
True, people under-estimated Leavers' gullibility.
I admit that the constant insults get a bit wearing, but you come to expect it here.
It's not an insult, it's true. I am quite happy to admit that I underestimated the gullibility of people who believed the brain-dead do-or-die promise. It was plain as a pikestaff that it wasn't in his power to deliver it, and yet it won him the premiership. Leavers are now meekly accepting the line that he didn't really promise that, and pretending instead that he promised he'd do his best to deliver it.
If the LibDems have a bit of dosh to spare, can I respectfully suggest that they divert a tiny bit of it into paying for a decent hairdresser for Ms Swinson?
What do you recommend @Richard_Nabavi ? Bangs? Layers? Sweep bob? Graduated fringe?
I await with breathless anticipation.....
I've no idea, that's why I suggest getting a decent hairdresser!
2. The immediacy of the forgiveness of Boris by Leavers for failing to deliver his do or die pledge.
It's too early to judge that. Many people will only notice when we're still in the EU in November, and some not even then.
Ever since he was elected it's been an amusing sport for Leavers to watch Remainers discussing amongst themselves why each twist of events turned out not to be the expected final straw that caused Leavers to turn on Johnson.
True, people under-estimated Leavers' gullibility.
I admit that the constant insults get a bit wearing, but you come to expect it here.
The opposite. We thought you had more integrity and sense of shame so when you lap up every lie Boris tells it genuinely surprises us.
If the LibDems have a bit of dosh to spare, can I respectfully suggest that they divert a tiny bit of it into paying for a decent hairdresser for Ms Swinson?
What do you recommend @Richard_Nabavi ? Bangs? Layers? Sweep bob? Graduated fringe?
I await with breathless anticipation.....
I've no idea, that's why I suggest getting a decent hairdresser!
I dont think her hair is a problem. Compare her hair to BJ or NS (SNP) and you realise who needs the hairdresser!
Judging by labour spokespeople this morning and McDonnell just now, the lib dems have blindsided them and they are incandescent with rage
If this gets out of control labour and lib dems will be in full on battle to win the propaganda war and Boris slips through the midddle
There is a danger for the lib dems in as much it may secure a 5 year Boris government in which case the tuition fee debacle will look like a walk in the park
However, if it goes well and the lib dems hold the balance of power they get their referendum and will have won a spectacular result
Fair play to Jo Swinson and her advisors, they have gambled big time on this
Labour always assume Lib Dems are their puppets to be pushed around and act with shock and horror whenever they stand up for themselves.
The Lib Dems have a chance of removing the Brexiteers from Downing Street, getting a mandate from the electorate for a second referendum and maybe even holding the balance of power - why on earth should they hide behind the sofa with Labour?
Judging by labour spokespeople this morning and McDonnell just now, the lib dems have blindsided them and they are incandescent with rage
If this gets out of control labour and lib dems will be in full on battle to win the propaganda war and Boris slips through the midddle
There is a danger for the lib dems in as much it may secure a 5 year Boris government in which case the tuition fee debacle will look like a walk in the park
However, if it goes well and the lib dems hold the balance of power they get their referendum and will have won a spectacular result
Fair play to Jo Swinson and her advisors, they have gambled big time on this
Labour always assume Lib Dems are their puppets to be pushed around and act with shock and horror whenever they stand up for themselves.
The Lib Dems have a chance of removing the Brexiteers from Downing Street, getting a mandate from the electorate for a second referendum and maybe even holding the balance of power - why on earth should they hide behind the sofa with Labour?
If the LibDems have a bit of dosh to spare, can I respectfully suggest that they divert a tiny bit of it into paying for a decent hairdresser for Ms Swinson?
That's an unnecessarily waspish jibe. How is that of any relevance to anything?
It's not waspish, it's genuine advice. Her hair looks awful, particularly with the way she sweeps it behind her ears. It looks as though she hasn't washed it for weeks.
The transformation of the blessed Margaret by means of the bulletproof hairdo has perhaps overcoloured your views on this. But you might have a point.
If the LibDems have a bit of dosh to spare, can I respectfully suggest that they divert a tiny bit of it into paying for a decent hairdresser for Ms Swinson?
What do you recommend @Richard_Nabavi ? Bangs? Layers? Sweep bob? Graduated fringe?
I await with breathless anticipation.....
I've no idea, that's why I suggest getting a decent hairdresser!
Powdered wigs are all the rage in select parts of Bedford ....
Judging by labour spokespeople this morning and McDonnell just now, the lib dems have blindsided them and they are incandescent with rage
If this gets out of control labour and lib dems will be in full on battle to win the propaganda war and Boris slips through the midddle
There is a danger for the lib dems in as much it may secure a 5 year Boris government in which case the tuition fee debacle will look like a walk in the park
However, if it goes well and the lib dems hold the balance of power they get their referendum and will have won a spectacular result
Fair play to Jo Swinson and her advisors, they have gambled big time on this
Does winning the propaganda war matter? So what if it is Jo Swinson who has out-manoeuvred Jeremy Corbyn or was it Boris to bugger up Christmas? I doubt most voters are following this very closely. It's been going on for months and every week there are crucial developments yet plus c'est la même chose.
I have just been looking at Labour Majorities in london and a lot of them are vast. In some seats where you would think the Lib dems may have a sniff they polled in the hundreds last time versus majs of 30k
Yes it's in the peripheries and West Country that the LDs have the best prospects. London itself is pretty solidly Labour.
Other than St Ives, I would have thought the West Country would be far from easy territory for the libdems.
Cheltenham? Wells? Bath? Even the Cotswolds if its Blimpish MP cooperates.
I think they'll do OK, but it's outer London and surrounds that offer most chances.
Bath is a good call.
I'm not sure the Cotswolds count as the West Country
The Lib Dems already hold Bath...
I'm not sure even the most LD-sceptic is predicting them to lose seats they already hold (except North Norfolk if Norman Lamb is standing down?).
In terms of gains, I'd only say they're favourites in Sheffield Hallam, Richmond Park and Cheltenham. Maybe St Albans and Lewes at a push. I think St Ives will be a tough nut to crack, despite the small majority.
There is talk of Zac Goldsmith moving to Sam Gymiahs seat
I can understand why, but that would be awfully embarrassing if Sam actually holds the seat against the odds.
Mr. B, Verstappen's been driving well for almost the whole year. The race was bad, but also a bit unlucky. The previous encounter (Leclerc) wasn't Verstappen's fault.
My understanding is that the Lib Dems now have more than twice the war chest that they had in 2017 and is growing by the day. This is showing up not only in the deluge of literature going out but also in a larger on line presence.
Yes, the LibDem deluge has already started. It is entirely counter-productive. I was stuffing my letter from Swinson in the bin on Saturday.
Maybe you could get them to stop sending the bloody stuff to YBarddCwsc?
Judging by labour spokespeople this morning and McDonnell just now, the lib dems have blindsided them and they are incandescent with rage
If this gets out of control labour and lib dems will be in full on battle to win the propaganda war and Boris slips through the midddle
There is a danger for the lib dems in as much it may secure a 5 year Boris government in which case the tuition fee debacle will look like a walk in the park
However, if it goes well and the lib dems hold the balance of power they get their referendum and will have won a spectacular result
Fair play to Jo Swinson and her advisors, they have gambled big time on this
Labour always assume Lib Dems are their puppets to be pushed around and act with shock and horror whenever they stand up for themselves.
The Lib Dems have a chance of removing the Brexiteers from Downing Street, getting a mandate from the electorate for a second referendum and maybe even holding the balance of power - why on earth should they hide behind the sofa with Labour?
Because the chance is only about 1% according to the betting markets.
MarqueeMark said: "Giving Boris a majority makes this nightmare end.You know what you have to do!"
If he does get a majority there will be an internal Tory party fight as to whether to leave with a deal or without. I think ERG will pivot from supporting his deal to preferring No Deal and some other Tory MPs will argue that May`s deal is better!
If he wins a majority he will be the all conquering hero and get a deal
My understanding is that the Lib Dems now have more than twice the war chest that they had in 2017 and is growing by the day. This is showing up not only in the deluge of literature going out but also in a larger on line presence.
Yes, the LibDem deluge has already started. It is entirely counter-productive. I was stuffing my letter from Swinson in the bin on Saturday.
Maybe you could get them to stop sending the bloody stuff to YBarddCwsc?
The golden rule - when they complain you know it is working.
MarqueeMark said: "Giving Boris a majority makes this nightmare end.You know what you have to do!"
If he does get a majority there will be an internal Tory party fight as to whether to leave with a deal or without. I think ERG will pivot from supporting his deal to preferring No Deal and some other Tory MPs will argue that May`s deal is better!
If he wins a majority he will be the all conquering hero and get a deal
Good point on South Cambridgeshire, I'd agree with you on that.
I think Bermondsey only falls if the LDs top 20% nationally. Simon Hughes's personal vote wearing off would probably almost cancel out a modest "natural" swing to the LibDems there I think. Cheadle and Hazel Grove are plausible LD gains, I guess.
I'd actually say Southport is possibly the most likely Labour gain in the country (though still not that likely).
I don't think Bermondsey falls unless the LDs are really close to Labour in national vote share. It's not really fertile LD territory, and the LDs only gained a single extra councillor in 2018 when they were surging in other parts of London. I'd be pretty surprised if they won that.
I think they'll do better in the inner suburbs: Hampstead is likely to become a three way marginal again, they'll surge (but likely fall short) in Finchley & Golders Green, and Hornsey & Wood Green is also likely become more yellow. I don't have the LDs as favourites in any of these, but in the scenario where they make it to 20% nationally, then they're in with a shout.
I think the LDs could take Finchley, Kensington, Chelsea and Fulham, Putney and Cities of London and Westminster, Southwark and Bermondsey and Vauxhall, Richmond Park. Outside London though the LD gains will be few and far between, maybe Cambridge, Lewes, St Albans, Cheltenham, Sheffield Hallam and Brecon and Radnor (a hold from the by election) while losing Norfolk North to the Tories with Norman Lamb standing down
Judging by labour spokespeople this morning and McDonnell just now, the lib dems have blindsided them and they are incandescent with rage
If this gets out of control labour and lib dems will be in full on battle to win the propaganda war and Boris slips through the midddle
There is a danger for the lib dems in as much it may secure a 5 year Boris government in which case the tuition fee debacle will look like a walk in the park
However, if it goes well and the lib dems hold the balance of power they get their referendum and will have won a spectacular result
Fair play to Jo Swinson and her advisors, they have gambled big time on this
Labour always assume Lib Dems are their puppets to be pushed around and act with shock and horror whenever they stand up for themselves.
The Lib Dems have a chance of removing the Brexiteers from Downing Street, getting a mandate from the electorate for a second referendum and maybe even holding the balance of power - why on earth should they hide behind the sofa with Labour?
Because the chance is only about 1% according to the betting markets.
The chance of No Overall Majority is 1%?
If you'll give me 100:1 on No Overall Majority I'd like to bet with you on that! How much are you willing to lay? Or what bookie can you link to that is offering those odds?
My understanding is that the Lib Dems now have more than twice the war chest that they had in 2017 and is growing by the day. This is showing up not only in the deluge of literature going out but also in a larger on line presence.
Yes, the LibDem deluge has already started. It is entirely counter-productive. I was stuffing my letter from Swinson in the bin on Saturday.
Counterproductive suggests you might otherwise have voted for them. That seems mildly unlikely.
I'm trying to model the effect of concentration of support. We can see the concentration effect vividly with the SNP on only 4% of the vote with 35 seats. But what about the concentration of LibDem support and effort?
Suppose, for the sake of illustration,that the LibDems have moved from 7% last time to 14% now. UNS is an arithmetic adjustment. In this case it adds 7% to the LibDem share everywhere ignoring the concentration effect. A share of 2% would move to 9%. A share of 30% would move to 37%. It would be like adding 1% to the SNP share in every constituency in the UK if the SNP moved from 4% to 5%!
I think there may be a multiplicative effect as well. In the example above, the LibDem share has doubled nationally so assume it has doubled in each constituency. From 2% to 4% in one constituency and from 30% to 60% in another.
On my model, the LibDems get 31 seats on the additive assumption and 64 on the multiplicative assumption. It makes a big difference.
I use a mix of 75% additive and 25% multiplicative giving 39 LibDems seats (plus an extra 8 from tactical voting assumptions) making 47.
For what's it's worth, my tactical model with 75% additive and 25% multiplicative gives:
Con 310 (302-321) Lab 223 (228-216) LD 47 (50-43) SNP 51
This is before the campaign has started. The figures in brackets show the effect of the Tories losing 2% to BXP and gaining 2% from BXP.
Nicola's speech next weekend at the Glasgow Indy rally is beginning to look crucial both for timing and content - she and the SNP can't afford a re-run of the lacklustre 2017 campaign.
My understanding is that the Lib Dems now have more than twice the war chest that they had in 2017 and is growing by the day. This is showing up not only in the deluge of literature going out but also in a larger on line presence.
Yes, the LibDem deluge has already started. It is entirely counter-productive. I was stuffing my letter from Swinson in the bin on Saturday.
Maybe you could get them to stop sending the bloody stuff to YBarddCwsc?
The golden rule - when they complain you know it is working.
Once upon a time, over the hills and far away, in an otherwise blameless life, I voted LibDem.
Somehow, despite selling all my belongings, burning my house down, changing my name, undergoing face-changing plastic surgery and moving to one of the remotest parts of Wales, the LibDems have tracked me down.
My understanding is that the Lib Dems now have more than twice the war chest that they had in 2017 and is growing by the day. This is showing up not only in the deluge of literature going out but also in a larger on line presence.
Yes, the LibDem deluge has already started. It is entirely counter-productive. I was stuffing my letter from Swinson in the bin on Saturday.
Maybe you could get them to stop sending the bloody stuff to YBarddCwsc?
The golden rule - when they complain you know it is working.
Have not had even a sausage from the Lib Dems :-), other than Dr Pack's newsletter, and quite a lot of editorial on PB!
Judging by labour spokespeople this morning and McDonnell just now, the lib dems have blindsided them and they are incandescent with rage
If this gets out of control labour and lib dems will be in full on battle to win the propaganda war and Boris slips through the midddle
There is a danger for the lib dems in as much it may secure a 5 year Boris government in which case the tuition fee debacle will look like a walk in the park
However, if it goes well and the lib dems hold the balance of power they get their referendum and will have won a spectacular result
Fair play to Jo Swinson and her advisors, they have gambled big time on this
Labour always assume Lib Dems are their puppets to be pushed around and act with shock and horror whenever they stand up for themselves.
The Lib Dems have a chance of removing the Brexiteers from Downing Street, getting a mandate from the electorate for a second referendum and maybe even holding the balance of power - why on earth should they hide behind the sofa with Labour?
Because the chance is only about 1% according to the betting markets.
And how often are the betting markets correct? Look at that graph at the top of the header - 2019 election has been near-certain to near-never and everywhere in-between. The betting markets said Remain would win, etc etc
Judging by labour spokespeople this morning and McDonnell just now, the lib dems have blindsided them and they are incandescent with rage
If this gets out of control labour and lib dems will be in full on battle to win the propaganda war and Boris slips through the midddle
There is a danger for the lib dems in as much it may secure a 5 year Boris government in which case the tuition fee debacle will look like a walk in the park
However, if it goes well and the lib dems hold the balance of power they get their referendum and will have won a spectacular result
Fair play to Jo Swinson and her advisors, they have gambled big time on this
Given the electorates in Lab-Tory marginals and LD-Tory marginals are very different isnt a bit of tension between Lab-LD needed for remain alliance success?
As I understand it, there will not be many three way marginals even if those are amongst the seats that get the most attention.
My understanding is that the Lib Dems now have more than twice the war chest that they had in 2017 and is growing by the day. This is showing up not only in the deluge of literature going out but also in a larger on line presence.
Yes, the LibDem deluge has already started. It is entirely counter-productive. I was stuffing my letter from Swinson in the bin on Saturday.
Maybe you could get them to stop sending the bloody stuff to YBarddCwsc?
The golden rule - when they complain you know it is working.
Have not had even a sausage from the Lib Dems :-)
I think a sausage might be considered bribery and a hell of a nuisance to get through the letter box.
If the LibDems have a bit of dosh to spare, can I respectfully suggest that they divert a tiny bit of it into paying for a decent hairdresser for Ms Swinson?
As long as she avoids the one Bozo uses she should be OK.
Does Boris even go to a hairdresser?
I thought that, contrary to appearances, his hair is carefully arranged to look like that. It's all part of the slightly dishevelled 'too busy on matters of state to look tidy' image that he's trying to convey.
My understanding is that the Lib Dems now have more than twice the war chest that they had in 2017 and is growing by the day. This is showing up not only in the deluge of literature going out but also in a larger on line presence.
Yes, the LibDem deluge has already started. It is entirely counter-productive. I was stuffing my letter from Swinson in the bin on Saturday.
Maybe you could get them to stop sending the bloody stuff to YBarddCwsc?
The golden rule - when they complain you know it is working.
Once upon a time, over the hills and far away, in an otherwise blameless life, I voted LibDem.
Somehow, despite selling all my belongings, burning my house down, changing my name, undergoing face-changing plastic surgery and moving to one of the remotest parts of Wales, the LibDems have tracked me down.
My understanding is that the Lib Dems now have more than twice the war chest that they had in 2017 and is growing by the day. This is showing up not only in the deluge of literature going out but also in a larger on line presence.
Yes, the LibDem deluge has already started. It is entirely counter-productive. I was stuffing my letter from Swinson in the bin on Saturday.
Counterproductive suggests you might otherwise have voted for them. That seems mildly unlikely.
I had actually decided not to vote in the forthcoming GE -- as I can't throw up enough to give my actual opinion of any of the candidates.
If this literature continues to pursue me, I may cast a vote simply to thwart the LibDem's chances !
If the LibDems have a bit of dosh to spare, can I respectfully suggest that they divert a tiny bit of it into paying for a decent hairdresser for Ms Swinson?
What do you recommend @Richard_Nabavi ? Bangs? Layers? Sweep bob? Graduated fringe?
I await with breathless anticipation.....
I've no idea, that's why I suggest getting a decent hairdresser!
I dont think her hair is a problem. Compare her hair to BJ or NS (SNP) and you realise who needs the hairdresser!
What Richard means is that he does not like her hairstyle and would rather she chose one he preferred, probably something elaborate that takes hours to style instead of something she can just run a brush through and then get on with her day.
Beth Rigby FTPA vote almost certain to fail. Understand No 10 is instead planning to introduce a Bill similar to LD/SNP one Tues in order to try push for pre-Xmas elec > But if one line Bill, it’s amendable. LDs said wouldn’t amend bill. But Lab surely will & does it then become unfeasible
2. The immediacy of the forgiveness of Boris by Leavers for failing to deliver his do or die pledge.
It's too early to judge that. Many people will only notice when we're still in the EU in November, and some not even then.
Ever since he was elected it's been an amusing sport for Leavers to watch Remainers discussing amongst themselves why each twist of events turned out not to be the expected final straw that caused Leavers to turn on Johnson.
True, people under-estimated Leavers' gullibility.
I admit that the constant insults get a bit wearing, but you come to expect it here.
The opposite. We thought you had more integrity and sense of shame so when you lap up every lie Boris tells it genuinely surprises us.
Gullibility doesn't necessarily equate to a lack of integrity, rather more the opposite, it is a rather quaint form of stupidity. Many Leavers are quite sincere in their belief in a flat earth, Father Christmas and the fairies at the end of the garden. They also believe Boris Johnson tells the truth, at all times.
Good point on South Cambridgeshire, I'd agree with you on that.
I think Bermondsey only falls if the LDs top 20% nationally. Simon Hughes's personal vote wearing off would probably almost cancel out a modest "natural" swing to the LibDems there I think. Cheadle and Hazel Grove are plausible LD gains, I guess.
I'd actually say Southport is possibly the most likely Labour gain in the country (though still not that likely).
I don't think Bermondsey falls unless the LDs are really close to Labour in national vote share. It's not really fertile LD territory, and the LDs only gained a single extra councillor in 2018 when they were surging in other parts of London. I'd be pretty surprised if they won that.
I think they'll do better in the inner suburbs: Hampstead is likely to become a three way marginal again, they'll surge (but likely fall short) in Finchley & Golders Green, and Hornsey & Wood Green is also likely become more yellow. I don't have the LDs as favourites in any of these, but in the scenario where they make it to 20% nationally, then they're in with a shout.
I think the LDs could take Finchley, Kensington, Chelsea and Fulham, Putney and Cities of London and Westminster, Southwark and Bermondsey and Vauxhall, Richmond Park. Outside London though the LD gains will be few and far between, maybe Cambridge, Lewes, Cheltenham, Sheffield Hallam and Brecon and Radnor (a good from the by election) while losing Norfolk North to the Tories with Norman Lamb standing down
I don't think the LDs will be quite so all conquering in London. My basic rule of thumb is to look at the following factors:
1. What happens on UNS? 2. How Remainy is the seat? 3. How did the LDs do in council elections? 4. How squeeze resistant are the LDs?
That gives me about 10 gains, with another 15 or so "chances".
So, in the case of St Albans (for example), the answers are:
1. LD gain 2. Very 3. Extremly well 4. They bucked the national trend in 2017 there, so I'd go for well
Those four factors point to it being a fairly easy LD gain.
Good point on South Cambridgeshire, I'd agree with you on that.
I think Bermondsey only falls if the LDs top 20% nationally. Simon Hughes's personal vote wearing off would probably almost cancel out a modest "natural" swing to the LibDems there I think. Cheadle and Hazel Grove are plausible LD gains, I guess.
I'd actually say Southport is possibly the most likely Labour gain in the country (though still not that likely).
Both Cheadle and Hazel Grove are in the Stockport council area, and the LDs did very well there this year, doubling their seat count, almost entirely at the expense of the Conservatives. Cheadle is also very Remainy.
I'd reckon in the former, the LDs would be good favourites, and in the latter, narrow ones.
I`m still backing Next GE "2020 or later" on Betfair at 2.62 or thereabouts.
- FTPA GE no chance - LibDem/SNP Bill for 9/12 (or Tory similar bill) will probably pass as it only needs 50% + 1 BUT Labour will be naughty with amendments surely.
Small chance that Labour will surprise us and go for VONC so that they can get credit for bringing down the government??
Beth Rigby FTPA vote almost certain to fail. Understand No 10 is instead planning to introduce a Bill similar to LD/SNP one Tues in order to try push for pre-Xmas elec > But if one line Bill, it’s amendable. LDs said wouldn’t amend bill. But Lab surely will & does it then become unfeasible
As Conservatives and LDs and SNP outnumber Labour by a country mile, why won't they just vote down the amendments?
2. The immediacy of the forgiveness of Boris by Leavers for failing to deliver his do or die pledge.
It's too early to judge that. Many people will only notice when we're still in the EU in November, and some not even then.
Ever since he was elected it's been an amusing sport for Leavers to watch Remainers discussing amongst themselves why each twist of events turned out not to be the expected final straw that caused Leavers to turn on Johnson.
True, people under-estimated Leavers' gullibility.
I admit that the constant insults get a bit wearing, but you come to expect it here.
It's not an insult, it's true. I am quite happy to admit that I underestimated the gullibility of people who believed the brain-dead do-or-die promise. It was plain as a pikestaff that it wasn't in his power to deliver it, and yet it won him the premiership. Leavers are now meekly accepting the line that he didn't really promise that, and pretending instead that he promised he'd do his best to deliver it.
Yes ‘Boris Didn’t Promise It’ will be the new ‘Boris Didn’t Send It’
Judging by labour spokespeople this morning and McDonnell just now, the lib dems have blindsided them and they are incandescent with rage
If this gets out of control labour and lib dems will be in full on battle to win the propaganda war and Boris slips through the midddle
There is a danger for the lib dems in as much it may secure a 5 year Boris government in which case the tuition fee debacle will look like a walk in the park
However, if it goes well and the lib dems hold the balance of power they get their referendum and will have won a spectacular result
Fair play to Jo Swinson and her advisors, they have gambled big time on this
Labour always assume Lib Dems are their puppets to be pushed around and act with shock and horror whenever they stand up for themselves.
The Lib Dems have a chance of removing the Brexiteers from Downing Street, getting a mandate from the electorate for a second referendum and maybe even holding the balance of power - why on earth should they hide behind the sofa with Labour?
Because the chance is only about 1% according to the betting markets.
Near evens on betfair. If you can get 100/1 then grab it!
I would price it 3/1 NOM myself, but let's see how BoZo goes in to bat for his crap deal, vs BXP No Dealers.
Beth Rigby FTPA vote almost certain to fail. Understand No 10 is instead planning to introduce a Bill similar to LD/SNP one Tues in order to try push for pre-Xmas elec > But if one line Bill, it’s amendable. LDs said wouldn’t amend bill. But Lab surely will & does it then become unfeasible
As Conservatives and LDs and SNP outnumber Labour by a country mile, why won't they just vote down the amendments?
If the LibDems have a bit of dosh to spare, can I respectfully suggest that they divert a tiny bit of it into paying for a decent hairdresser for Ms Swinson?
What do you recommend @Richard_Nabavi ? Bangs? Layers? Sweep bob? Graduated fringe?
I await with breathless anticipation.....
I've no idea, that's why I suggest getting a decent hairdresser!
I dont think her hair is a problem. Compare her hair to BJ or NS (SNP) and you realise who needs the hairdresser!
What Richard means is that he does not like her hairstyle and would rather she chose one he preferred, probably something elaborate that takes hours to style instead of something she can just run a brush through and then get on with her day.
Long hair does not style itself.
Thank you, you have put your finger on it - long hair doesn't style itself. So she should either take more care over styling it (which no doubt would take time she hasn't got), or wear it shorter. Either way, like any would-be senior politician, she needs to smarten up. Even Jeremy Corbyn was prevailed upon to take the sound advice of Mrs Cameron senior.
4 men and 2 women in very traditional roles - what were they thinking?
Its probably just (a) representative and (b) gives the average voter a warm fuzzy feeling rather than present them with something more challenging
In Scotland, that leaflet will carry resonances of Ruth's 2017 campaign - and the subsequent allegiance and voting of the 13 SCon MPs could be weaponised against the LDems.
I`m still backing Next GE "2020 or later" on Betfair at 2.62 or thereabouts.
- FTPA GE no chance - LibDem/SNP Bill for 9/12 (or Tory similar bill) will probably pass as it only needs 50% + 1 BUT Labour will be naughty with amendments surely.
Small chance that Labour will surprise us and go for VONC so that they can get credit for bringing down the government??
Strategically a VONC that is instigated by Labour is the best route IMO. Boris looks like a loser!
2. The immediacy of the forgiveness of Boris by Leavers for failing to deliver his do or die pledge.
It's too early to judge that. Many people will only notice when we're still in the EU in November, and some not even then.
Ever since he was elected it's been an amusing sport for Leavers to watch Remainers discussing amongst themselves why each twist of events turned out not to be the expected final straw that caused Leavers to turn on Johnson.
True, people under-estimated Leavers' gullibility.
I admit that the constant insults get a bit wearing, but you come to expect it here.
It's not an insult, it's true. I am quite happy to admit that I underestimated the gullibility of people who believed the brain-dead do-or-die promise. It was plain as a pikestaff that it wasn't in his power to deliver it, and yet it won him the premiership. Leavers are now meekly accepting the line that he didn't really promise that, and pretending instead that he promised he'd do his best to deliver it.
Good afternoon all. Leavers are not meekly accepting anything. They recognise that Boris is their best chance of achieving Brexit, despite the barbs of those who thought him lazy and unserious.
Disappointing to see you criticising Jo Swinson's appearance. Poor show.
Judging by labour spokespeople this morning and McDonnell just now, the lib dems have blindsided them and they are incandescent with rage
If this gets out of control labour and lib dems will be in full on battle to win the propaganda war and Boris slips through the midddle
There is a danger for the lib dems in as much it may secure a 5 year Boris government in which case the tuition fee debacle will look like a walk in the park
However, if it goes well and the lib dems hold the balance of power they get their referendum and will have won a spectacular result
Fair play to Jo Swinson and her advisors, they have gambled big time on this
I think the LDs will be pleased by Labour's reaction, which rather plays into the LDs hands given that across all political groupings the electorate appears to be strongly in favour of an immediate general election.
Nor do I think the LDs will be too bothered if they end up with around 50 seats and in a strong second place in another 100+, even if Labour gets hammered we end up out of the EU. That outcome would be consistent with a long term strategic goal of replacing Labour as the main opposition to the Conservatives.
My understanding is that the Lib Dems now have more than twice the war chest that they had in 2017 and is growing by the day. This is showing up not only in the deluge of literature going out but also in a larger on line presence.
Yes, the LibDem deluge has already started. It is entirely counter-productive. I was stuffing my letter from Swinson in the bin on Saturday.
Maybe you could get them to stop sending the bloody stuff to YBarddCwsc?
The golden rule - when they complain you know it is working.
Have not had even a sausage from the Lib Dems :-)
I think a sausage might be considered bribery and a hell of a nuisance to get through the letter box.
A sausage through the letterbox sounds more like a euphemism than a bribe....
Beth Rigby FTPA vote almost certain to fail. Understand No 10 is instead planning to introduce a Bill similar to LD/SNP one Tues in order to try push for pre-Xmas elec > But if one line Bill, it’s amendable. LDs said wouldn’t amend bill. But Lab surely will & does it then become unfeasible
As Conservatives and LDs and SNP outnumber Labour by a country mile, why won't they just vote down the amendments?
That would take time. Also easier to delay in the Lords.Also suggested that Dissolution would have to occur this week. Maybe the St Andrews BH in Scotland is a factor there? No Sitting planned for Friday.
Good point on South Cambridgeshire, I'd agree with you on that.
I think Bermondsey only falls if the LDs top 20% nationally. Simon Hughes's personal vote wearing off would probably almost cancel out a modest "natural" swing to the LibDems there I think. Cheadle and Hazel Grove are plausible LD gains, I guess.
I'd actually say Southport is possibly the most likely Labour gain in the country (though still not that likely).
Both Cheadle and Hazel Grove are in the Stockport council area, and the LDs did very well there this year, doubling their seat count, almost entirely at the expense of the Conservatives. Cheadle is also very Remainy.
I'd reckon in the former, the LDs would be good favourites, and in the latter, narrow ones.
If the LibDems have a bit of dosh to spare, can I respectfully suggest that they divert a tiny bit of it into paying for a decent hairdresser for Ms Swinson?
What do you recommend @Richard_Nabavi ? Bangs? Layers? Sweep bob? Graduated fringe?
I await with breathless anticipation.....
I've no idea, that's why I suggest getting a decent hairdresser!
I dont think her hair is a problem. Compare her hair to BJ or NS (SNP) and you realise who needs the hairdresser!
What Richard means is that he does not like her hairstyle and would rather she chose one he preferred, probably something elaborate that takes hours to style instead of something she can just run a brush through and then get on with her day.
Long hair does not style itself.
Thank you, you have put your finger on it - long hair doesn't style itself. So she should either take more care over styling it (which no doubt would take time she hasn't got), or wear it shorter. Either way, like any would-be senior politician, she needs to smarten up. Even Jeremy Corbyn was prevailed upon to take the sound advice of Mrs Cameron senior.
It is truly a weird world when Corbo is considered the smartest of the three main party leaders.
No 10 announces that if their vote fails today they will introduce a bill tomorrow based on the lib dem-snp one to enable the election that is so needed
They continue by saying this afternoon is labour's last chance to come on board the election
2. The immediacy of the forgiveness of Boris by Leavers for failing to deliver his do or die pledge.
It's too early to judge that. Many people will only notice when we're still in the EU in November, and some not even then.
Ever since he was elected it's been an amusing sport for Leavers to watch Remainers discussing amongst themselves why each twist of events turned out not to be the expected final straw that caused Leavers to turn on Johnson.
True, people under-estimated Leavers' gullibility.
I admit that the constant insults get a bit wearing, but you come to expect it here.
It's not an insult, it's true. I am quite happy to admit that I underestimated the gullibility of people who believed the brain-dead do-or-die promise. It was plain as a pikestaff that it wasn't in his power to deliver it, and yet it won him the premiership. Leavers are now meekly accepting the line that he didn't really promise that, and pretending instead that he promised he'd do his best to deliver it.
Good afternoon all. Leavers are not meekly accepting anything. They recognise that Boris is their best chance of achieving Brexit, despite the barbs of those who thought him lazy and unserious.
Disappointing to see you criticising Jo Swinson's appearance. Poor show.
He is lazy and unserious, and he probably is your best chance. Boris Johnson sums up the infantile "philosophy" that is Brexit.
Stocky said: "I`m still backing Next GE "2020 or later" on Betfair at 2.62 or thereabouts.
- FTPA GE no chance - LibDem/SNP Bill for 9/12 (or Tory similar bill) will probably pass as it only needs 50% + 1 BUT Labour will be naughty with amendments surely.
Small chance that Labour will surprise us and go for VONC so that they can get credit for bringing down the government??"
The_Taxman said:"Strategically a VONC that is instigated by Labour is the best route IMO. Boris looks like a loser!"
Yes I agree. If I were Corbyn I`d wait until Boris loses the vote this afternoon and then immediately table a VONC. Not only would this embarrass the government it would shoot the LD/SNP fox.
Mr. B, Verstappen's been driving well for almost the whole year. The race was bad, but also a bit unlucky. The previous encounter (Leclerc) wasn't Verstappen's fault.
Stocky said: "I`m still backing Next GE "2020 or later" on Betfair at 2.62 or thereabouts.
- FTPA GE no chance - LibDem/SNP Bill for 9/12 (or Tory similar bill) will probably pass as it only needs 50% + 1 BUT Labour will be naughty with amendments surely.
Small chance that Labour will surprise us and go for VONC so that they can get credit for bringing down the government??"
The_Taxman said:"Strategically a VONC that is instigated by Labour is the best route IMO. Boris looks like a loser!"
Yes I agree. If I were Corbyn I`d wait until Boris loses the vote this afternoon and then immediately table a VONC. Not only would this embarrass the government it would shoot the LD/SNP fox.
That - if successful - would push Polling Day back to 17th December.
Another difference which runs counter to that narrative is that not many of the Lib Dem v Tory and Labour v Tory battles overlap, so the potential for a genuine realignment is much greater.
True.
ght be peeled away, unlocking a fair few seats in the south.
The wae same to Labour.
I - both in their fifties.
We need to put less emphasis on how big majorities are this time I think.
I think uns might be out the window this time. More about how strong remain vs strong leave
Another difference which runs counter to that narrative is that not many of the Lib Dem v Tory and Labour v Tory battles overlap, so the potential for a genuine realignment is much greater.
True.
Although in a Brexit election given Labour's track record on Brexit and its current leader, ling back from 2017 levels, making many of its targets unwinnable.
The opportunity the LibDems have is of peeling away the Tory remainers in the Home Counties, many of whom (from the polling) appear currently to be sticking with the Tories on the basis that Brexit is inevitable. If the LibDems can galvanize a campaign to reverse the 2016 vote they might be peeled away, unlocking a fair few seats in the south.
The way I see realignment happening is the Lib Dems making inroads into traditional Tory seats and demographics, while the Tories do the same to Labour.
I was reluctant to post this earlier because I dislike anecdotal posts but I've been prompted so here goes.
Dinner party in Hampstead last nite (yes, I know....) and two regular Labour voters saying they would vote LD, largely because of Corbyn. I pointed out the local MP, Tulip Siddiq, is a good constituency MP and no Corbymista. Didn't cut any ice.
Siddiq has a big majority but on that evidence even she could be in trouble. One of the two was unemployed, the other an NHS Doctor - both in their fifties.
We need to put less emphasis on how big majorities are this time I think.
I think uns might be out the window this time. More about how strong remain vs strong leave
Agreed. Hampstead is in the heart of Remainia. I fear for Tulip.
May be she could ask her aunts advice on elections?
MattW said: "Just political position to say "we got the Tories to change the date"? Is it about both getting half a pound of flesh?"
Some talk about student voting numbers but I think it is really because they need to differentiate their plan to the governments and kill the WA (at least for the time being).
Stocky said: "I`m still backing Next GE "2020 or later" on Betfair at 2.62 or thereabouts.
- FTPA GE no chance - LibDem/SNP Bill for 9/12 (or Tory similar bill) will probably pass as it only needs 50% + 1 BUT Labour will be naughty with amendments surely.
Small chance that Labour will surprise us and go for VONC so that they can get credit for bringing down the government??"
The_Taxman said:"Strategically a VONC that is instigated by Labour is the best route IMO. Boris looks like a loser!"
Yes I agree. If I were Corbyn I`d wait until Boris loses the vote this afternoon and then immediately table a VONC. Not only would this embarrass the government it would shoot the LD/SNP fox.
Not a good idea. He will not win it and makes things even worse for him if that is possible
Big_G said: "Not a good idea. He will not win it and makes things even worse for him if that is possible"
Why? Would get LD and SNP - they could hardly vote against. Some Tory MPs may even vote in favour but I think it possible that all Tory party would abstain thus ensuring the VONC motion wins.
I'm trying to model the effect of concentration of support. We can see the concentration effect vividly with the SNP on only 4% of the vote with 35 seats. But what about the concentration of LibDem support and effort?
Suppose, for the sake of illustration,that the LibDems have moved from 7% last time to 14% now. UNS is an arithmetic adjustment. In this case it adds 7% to the LibDem share everywhere ignoring the concentration effect. A share of 2% would move to 9%. A share of 30% would move to 37%. It would be like adding 1% to the SNP share in every constituency in the UK if the SNP moved from 4% to 5%!
I think there may be a multiplicative effect as well. In the example above, the LibDem share has doubled nationally so assume it has doubled in each constituency. From 2% to 4% in one constituency and from 30% to 60% in another.
On my model, the LibDems get 31 seats on the additive assumption and 64 on the multiplicative assumption. It makes a big difference.
I use a mix of 75% additive and 25% multiplicative giving 39 LibDems seats (plus an extra 8 from tactical voting assumptions) making 47.
For what's it's worth, my tactical model with 75% additive and 25% multiplicative gives:
Con 310 (302-321) Lab 223 (228-216) LD 47 (50-43) SNP 51
This is before the campaign has started. The figures in brackets show the effect of the Tories losing 2% to BXP and gaining 2% from BXP.
Nicola's speech next weekend at the Glasgow Indy rally is beginning to look crucial both for timing and content - she and the SNP can't afford a re-run of the lacklustre 2017 campaign.
This is why Jo Swinson is safe. Tory voters will vote tactically for her to keep SNP out. For many Scottish Tories the Union trumps Brexit. Incidentally the Westminster leader most likely to lose is Ian Blackford who will be defending a seat formerly held by Charles Kennedy. It's an outside chance but conceivable if LibDems chuck enough resources at it.
The St Andrews Day Bank Holiday - Monday 2nd December.- in Scotland makes matters a bit more difficult. Such days are excluded when calculating the period from Dissolution to Polling Day. Because Parliament is not scheduled to sit this Friday, it apparently neans that Dissolution would have to take place on Thursday this week. If Labour intends to scupper this, probably can delay.
I'm trying to model the effect of concentration of support. We can see the concentration effect vividly with the SNP on only 4% of the vote with 35 seats. But what about the concentration of LibDem support and effort?
Suppose, for the sake of illustration,that the LibDems have moved from 7% last time to 14% now. UNS is an arithmetic adjustment. In this case it adds 7% to the LibDem share everywhere ignoring the concentration effect. A share of 2% would move to 9%. A share of 30% would move to 37%. It would be like adding 1% to the SNP share in every constituency in the UK if the SNP moved from 4% to 5%!
I think there may be a multiplicative effect as well. In the example above, the LibDem share has doubled nationally so assume it has doubled in each constituency. From 2% to 4% in one constituency and from 30% to 60% in another.
On my model, the LibDems get 31 seats on the additive assumption and 64 on the multiplicative assumption. It makes a big difference.
I use a mix of 75% additive and 25% multiplicative giving 39 LibDems seats (plus an extra 8 from tactical voting assumptions) making 47.
For what's it's worth, my tactical model with 75% additive and 25% multiplicative gives:
Con 310 (302-321) Lab 223 (228-216) LD 47 (50-43) SNP 51
This is before the campaign has started. The figures in brackets show the effect of the Tories losing 2% to BXP and gaining 2% from BXP.
Nicola's speech next weekend at the Glasgow Indy rally is beginning to look crucial both for timing and content - she and the SNP can't afford a re-run of the lacklustre 2017 campaign.
This is why Jo Swinson is safe. Tory voters will vote tactically for her to keep SNP out. For many Scottish Tories the Union trumps Brexit. Incidentally the Westminster leader most likely to lose is Ian Blackford who will be defending a seat formerly held by Charles Kennedy. It's an outside chance but conceivable if LibDems chuck enough resources at it.
Isn't Soubry the leader most likely to lose? Or will she have moved party by then? Or is she standing down?
2. The immediacy of the forgiveness of Boris by Leavers for failing to deliver his do or die pledge.
It's too early to judge that. Many people will only notice when we're still in the EU in November, and some not even then.
Ever since he was elected it's been an amusing sport for Leavers to watch Remainers discussing amongst themselves why each twist of events turned out not to be the expected final straw that caused Leavers to turn on Johnson.
True, people under-estimated Leavers' gullibility.
I admit that the constant insults get a bit wearing, but you come to expect it here.
It's not an insult, it's true. I am quite happy to admit that I underestimated the gullibility of people who believed the brain-dead do-or-die promise. It was plain as a pikestaff that it wasn't in his power to deliver it, and yet it won him the premiership. Leavers are now meekly accepting the line that he didn't really promise that, and pretending instead that he promised he'd do his best to deliver it.
A promise to "brain-dead" Leavers.
I dare you to try and argue the substance of a point without demeaning those you disagree with.
Big_G said: "Not a good idea. He will not win it and makes things even worse for him if that is possible"
Why? Would get LD and SNP - they could hardly vote against. Some Tory MPs may even vote in favour but I think it possible that all Tory party would abstain thus ensuring the VONC motion wins.
With respect that is a pipe dream. The lib dems, snp, dup and others are backing the one line bill tomorrow for the GE. They would not let Corbyn near power and it would be pointless as it would delay an election to January with campaigning over christmas and new year.
Big_G said: "Not a good idea. He will not win it and makes things even worse for him if that is possible"
Why? Would get LD and SNP - they could hardly vote against. Some Tory MPs may even vote in favour but I think it possible that all Tory party would abstain thus ensuring the VONC motion wins.
With respect that is a pipe dream. The lib dems, snp, dup and others are backing the one line bill tomorrow for the GE. They would not let Corbyn near power and it would be pointless as it would delay an election to January with campaigning over christmas and new year.
4 men and 2 women in very traditional roles - what were they thinking?
Are the female engineer and female doctor in traditional roles?
A female Dr is absolutely traditional - for Drs under 55 or so it is pretty much 50:50. Though it looks more like a nurse with a stethoscope than a Dr, and the greater female Dr tendency to work part time has caused big problems iirc.
In the Hospital Hierarchy Drs get to go in mufti whenever I see them, which is a lot recently - unless in theatre or not very senior.
Dr Fox might elucidate.
Not sure where we are with female engineers, or whether the percentage of population is a suitable metric.
Female leaders in politics is a traditional role only amongst the Tories and minor parties :-D .
Isn't Soubry the leader most likely to lose? Or will she have moved party by then? Or is she standing down?
She's standing, and so when I last heard are the LibDems in that seat. As are Labour, Tories, BXP and possibly Greens. It should be quite a show.
Thanks; I just hope it doesn't get too nasty. I don't agree with Soubry (and she does come over to me as very strident) but she deserves to have a fair hearing and a safe campaign.
My understanding is that the Lib Dems now have more than twice the war chest that they had in 2017 and is growing by the day. This is showing up not only in the deluge of literature going out but also in a larger on line presence.
Yes, the LibDem deluge has already started. It is entirely counter-productive. I was stuffing my letter from Swinson in the bin on Saturday.
Maybe you could get them to stop sending the bloody stuff to YBarddCwsc?
The party has done extensive research on this. The more contact with an elector the more likely they are to vote for you; the more personal the contact the better. In some campaigns it has been shown that it is only when you get to 8 leaflets that virtually all target voters get the message. I believe in the Richmond Park by-election the Lib Dems were delivering a morning and an evening leaflet on some days. I can't personally stop sending the 'bloody stuff' but if you contact the party they will delete you from their database.
My understanding is that the Lib Dems now have more than twice the war chest that they had in 2017 and is growing by the day. This is showing up not only in the deluge of literature going out but also in a larger on line presence.
Yes, the LibDem deluge has already started. It is entirely counter-productive. I was stuffing my letter from Swinson in the bin on Saturday.
Maybe you could get them to stop sending the bloody stuff to YBarddCwsc?
The golden rule - when they complain you know it is working.
Once upon a time, over the hills and far away, in an otherwise blameless life, I voted LibDem.
Somehow, despite selling all my belongings, burning my house down, changing my name, undergoing face-changing plastic surgery and moving to one of the remotest parts of Wales, the LibDems have tracked me down.
They are worse than LinkedIn.
They never let go.
It sounds a little more targeted than the Tories, who are bombarding me by email (to both home and work addresses) and letter (with SSAE for me to reply), asking things like "Will you help us get Brexit over the line?" and "Will you donate £50 to stop Jeremy Corbyn?" I've not asked them to desist - it adds a little amusement to each week.
Musing on why LDs suggested a Monday election in December.
Just political position to say "we got the Tories to change the date"? Is it about both getting half a pound of flesh?
Students in university towns rather than spread out across the country.
Must be a tiny effect.
All those University towns are mainly in Labour hands already, and with uber-Remain Labour MPs.
I don't see many of them changing hands at the election.
It depends what agreements and targets may still be in play as Remain Alliance seats, if the parties can stay united. I've just been looking around at possibles beyond the normal LD reach.
Of course Wales is fertile ground, even if, as you say, harvesting Remain Alliance votes would not be a perfect science, but there will be good seats to do this in England as well. For all PC / LD stay at homes you lost, the shininess of a new player might also attract a few.
As an example Sheffield Central predicted (from memory) in Electoral Calculus as Lab 35, LD 16, Grn 16. In no way an obvious front line Lib Dem gain, but how soft is that Lab student vote to a credible Remain rival? (btw, I've not checked either what candidates are lined up there or if an agreement is in the offing, the example is purely illustrative)
If you have identified 2 dozen seats like that and several are studenty, it makes sense to push those buttons.
Meanwhile, I see that 65% of younger voters (Gen Z + Millennials) tell YouGov that are somewhat or extremely likely to vote for a socialist candidate, and around 40% of all US voters seem to say this. At present, socialism in the US largely comes down to backing Sanders and AOC, but I wonder if a wider renaissance is possible.
The poll was commissioned by something called the Victims of Communism Foundation, who don't sound like the sort of people who would necessarily feel this was good news.
My understanding is that the Lib Dems now have more than twice the war chest that they had in 2017 and is growing by the day. This is showing up not only in the deluge of literature going out but also in a larger on line presence.
Yes, the LibDem deluge has already started. It is entirely counter-productive. I was stuffing my letter from Swinson in the bin on Saturday.
Maybe you could get them to stop sending the bloody stuff to YBarddCwsc?
The party has done extensive research on this. The more contact with an elector the more likely they are to vote for you; the more personal the contact the better. In some campaigns it has been shown that it is only when you get to 8 leaflets that virtually all target voters get the message. I believe in the Richmond Park by-election the Lib Dems were delivering a morning and an evening leaflet on some days. I can't personally stop sending the 'bloody stuff' but if you contact the party they will delete you from their database.
No matter which party is keen to contact me I treat unsolicited information through the letter box in the same way I treat all the junk mail.
It is no more than advertising. I know it will throw a distorted light on the product for sale. Rather than assiduously reading it I am reliable in recycling it in unread and in pristine condition.
Meanwhile, I see that 65% of younger voters (Gen Z + Millennials) tell YouGov that are somewhat or extremely likely to vote for a socialist candidate, and around 40% of all US voters seem to say this. At present, socialism in the US largely comes down to backing Sanders and AOC, but I wonder if a wider renaissance is possible.
The poll was commissioned by something called the Victims of Communism Foundation, who don't sound like the sort of people who would necessarily feel this was good news.
I wonder if there’s a potential tipping point in the US, where they elect a congress or president (or even both in some circumstances) labelled socialist by the republicans and the world doesn’t fall in? Dispel the bad connotations and that society has to be ripe for some of what we think of as basic, but has been labelled extreme socialist in the US.
My understanding is that the Lib Dems now have more than twice the war chest that they had in 2017 and is growing by the day. This is showing up not only in the deluge of literature going out but also in a larger on line presence.
Yes, the LibDem deluge has already started. It is entirely counter-productive. I was stuffing my letter from Swinson in the bin on Saturday.
Maybe you could get them to stop sending the bloody stuff to YBarddCwsc?
The golden rule - when they complain you know it is working.
Once upon a time, over the hills and far away, in an otherwise blameless life, I voted LibDem.
Somehow, despite selling all my belongings, burning my house down, changing my name, undergoing face-changing plastic surgery and moving to one of the remotest parts of Wales, the LibDems have tracked me down.
They are worse than LinkedIn.
They never let go.
It sounds a little more targeted than the Tories, who are bombarding me by email (to both home and work addresses) and letter (with SSAE for me to reply), asking things like "Will you help us get Brexit over the line?" and "Will you donate £50 to stop Jeremy Corbyn?" I've not asked them to desist - it adds a little amusement to each week.
The only campaign-type literature I'm seeing is from one of the Indies who won a District Council seat from the Tories last May. There's a bit of Green activity on the local Facebook site but that's about it. Even Priti seems to have gone quiet since she became Home Sec.
Isn't Soubry the leader most likely to lose? Or will she have moved party by then? Or is she standing down?
She's standing, and so when I last heard are the LibDems in that seat. As are Labour, Tories, BXP and possibly Greens. It should be quite a show.
Thanks; I just hope it doesn't get too nasty. I don't agree with Soubry (and she does come over to me as very strident) but she deserves to have a fair hearing and a safe campaign.
Yes, of course. I think it should be OK - Broxtowe is a very calm sort of place, with chin-stroking intellectuals mixed with prosperous retirees. I never encountered any serious aggro in 13 years.
Comments
I'd reckon in the former, the LDs would be good favourites, and in the latter, narrow ones.
IIRC
The Lib Dems have a chance of removing the Brexiteers from Downing Street, getting a mandate from the electorate for a second referendum and maybe even holding the balance of power - why on earth should they hide behind the sofa with Labour?
But you might have a point.
Maybe you could get them to stop sending the bloody stuff to YBarddCwsc?
Labour will lose up to 100 seats, with the LDs up about 20+ and the SNP up about 10.
It looks like the Commons will vote for a December 9th general election this week with Tory votes added to SNP and LD votes to amend the FTPA
If you'll give me 100:1 on No Overall Majority I'd like to bet with you on that! How much are you willing to lay? Or what bookie can you link to that is offering those odds?
That seems mildly unlikely.
Somehow, despite selling all my belongings, burning my house down, changing my name, undergoing face-changing plastic surgery and moving to one of the remotest parts of Wales, the LibDems have tracked me down.
They are worse than LinkedIn.
Dark times indeed ....
As I understand it, there will not be many three way marginals even if those are amongst the seats that get the most attention.
If this literature continues to pursue me, I may cast a vote simply to thwart the LibDem's chances !
Long hair does not style itself.
Beth Rigby
FTPA vote almost certain to fail. Understand No 10 is instead planning to introduce a Bill similar to LD/SNP one Tues in order to try push for pre-Xmas elec > But if one line Bill, it’s amendable. LDs said wouldn’t amend bill. But Lab surely will & does it then become unfeasible
https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/28/bernie-sanders-andrew-yang-gang-2020-057985
1. What happens on UNS?
2. How Remainy is the seat?
3. How did the LDs do in council elections?
4. How squeeze resistant are the LDs?
That gives me about 10 gains, with another 15 or so "chances".
So, in the case of St Albans (for example), the answers are:
1. LD gain
2. Very
3. Extremly well
4. They bucked the national trend in 2017 there, so I'd go for well
Those four factors point to it being a fairly easy LD gain.
- FTPA GE no chance
- LibDem/SNP Bill for 9/12 (or Tory similar bill) will probably pass as it only needs 50% + 1 BUT Labour will be naughty with amendments surely.
Small chance that Labour will surprise us and go for VONC so that they can get credit for bringing down the government??
I would price it 3/1 NOM myself, but let's see how BoZo goes in to bat for his crap deal, vs BXP No Dealers.
Disappointing to see you criticising Jo Swinson's appearance. Poor show.
Nor do I think the LDs will be too bothered if they end up with around 50 seats and in a strong second place in another 100+, even if Labour gets hammered we end up out of the EU. That outcome would be consistent with a long term strategic goal of replacing Labour as the main opposition to the Conservatives.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/10/23/more-two-one-britons-support-holding-general-elect
Easy Tory hold
2. How Remainy is the seat?
Very
3. How did the LDs do in council elections?
Improved their position, but not well.
4. How squeeze resistant are the LDs?
Coming from third, so not good.
rcs1000 says... Tory hold.
No 10 announces that if their vote fails today they will introduce a bill tomorrow based on the lib dem-snp one to enable the election that is so needed
They continue by saying this afternoon is labour's last chance to come on board the
election
Gauntlet thrown down
If the general election is BREXIT dominated, likely but not an absolute given, then the European election numbers are also relevant.
https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1188802953995522048
"I`m still backing Next GE "2020 or later" on Betfair at 2.62 or thereabouts.
- FTPA GE no chance
- LibDem/SNP Bill for 9/12 (or Tory similar bill) will probably pass as it only needs 50% + 1 BUT Labour will be naughty with amendments surely.
Small chance that Labour will surprise us and go for VONC so that they can get credit for bringing down the government??"
The_Taxman said:"Strategically a VONC that is instigated by Labour is the best route IMO. Boris looks like a loser!"
Yes I agree. If I were Corbyn I`d wait until Boris loses the vote this afternoon and then immediately table a VONC. Not only would this embarrass the government it would shoot the LD/SNP fox.
Just political position to say "we got the Tories to change the date"? Is it about both getting half a pound of flesh?
Jo Swinson just announced she will support the bill tomorrow if it is similar and will not back any amendments
Some talk about student voting numbers but I think it is really because they need to differentiate their plan to the governments and kill the WA (at least for the time being).
Yes - 14 days plus 25 days - I`m banking on 2019 being impossible hence my 2020 + GE bets.
Why? Would get LD and SNP - they could hardly vote against. Some Tory MPs may even vote in favour but I think it possible that all Tory party would abstain thus ensuring the VONC motion wins.
I dare you to try and argue the substance of a point without demeaning those you disagree with.
Not me, I'm done with you.
All those University towns are mainly in Labour hands already, and with uber-Remain Labour MPs.
I don't see many of them changing hands at the election.
It is not going to happen
In the Hospital Hierarchy Drs get to go in mufti whenever I see them, which is a lot recently - unless in theatre or not very senior.
Dr Fox might elucidate.
Not sure where we are with female engineers, or whether the percentage of population is a suitable metric.
Female leaders in politics is a traditional role only amongst the Tories and minor parties :-D .
Of course Wales is fertile ground, even if, as you say, harvesting Remain Alliance votes would not be a perfect science, but there will be good seats to do this in England as well. For all PC / LD stay at homes you lost, the shininess of a new player might also attract a few.
As an example Sheffield Central predicted (from memory) in Electoral Calculus as Lab 35, LD 16, Grn 16. In no way an obvious front line Lib Dem gain, but how soft is that Lab student vote to a credible Remain rival? (btw, I've not checked either what candidates are lined up there or if an agreement is in the offing, the example is purely illustrative)
If you have identified 2 dozen seats like that and several are studenty, it makes sense to push those buttons.
The poll was commissioned by something called the Victims of Communism Foundation, who don't sound like the sort of people who would necessarily feel this was good news.
It is no more than advertising. I know it will throw a distorted light on the product for sale. Rather than assiduously reading it I am reliable in recycling it in unread and in pristine condition.
Even Priti seems to have gone quiet since she became Home Sec.
Edited: spelling.