Another difference which runs counter to that narrative is that not many of the Lib Dem v Tory and Labour v Tory battles overlap, so the potential for a genuine realignment is much greater.
True.
Although in a Brexit election given Labour's track record on Brexit and its current leader, it will be harder for them to get LibDems to vote tactically, than vice versa. Particularly if the narrative is of Labour's vote falling back from 2017 levels, making many of its targets unwinnable.
The opportunity the LibDems have is of peeling away the Tory remainers in the Home Counties, many of whom (from the polling) appear currently to be sticking with the Tories on the basis that Brexit is inevitable. If the LibDems can galvanize a campaign to reverse the 2016 vote they might be peeled away, unlocking a fair few seats in the south.
The way I see realignment happening is the Lib Dems making inroads into traditional Tory seats and demographics, while the Tories do the same to Labour.
I was reluctant to post this earlier because I dislike anecdotal posts but I've been prompted so here goes.
Dinner party in Hampstead last nite (yes, I know....) and two regular Labour voters saying they would vote LD, largely because of Corbyn. I pointed out the local MP, Tulip Siddiq, is a good constituency MP and no Corbymista. Didn't cut any ice.
Siddiq has a big majority but on that evidence even she could be in trouble. One of the two was unemployed, the other an NHS Doctor - both in their fifties.
Ptp. Somewhat at odds with Nick Palmer’s anecdotal experience!
I seem to recall, many moons ago, that Roger had some Dutch friends who he felt were a reliable bellwether for the state of uk politics. Roger, can you take some soundings.
😃
Dutch Bellweather? Is this some sort of crossword clue, or a new contraceptive device of which I am unaware?
Nice to hear from you again. Will you be appearing a little more regularly now that Villa are back in the elite and you need no longer feel ashamed?
Thanks Peter. You too. I’m likely to pop in here more often if this election gets off the ground.
Another difference which runs counter to that narrative is that not many of the Lib Dem v Tory and Labour v Tory battles overlap, so the potential for a genuine realignment is much greater.
True.
Although in a Brexit election given Labour's track record on Brexit and its current leader, it will be harder for them to get LibDems to vote tactically, than vice versa. Particularly if the narrative is of Labour's vote falling back from 2017 levels, making many of its targets unwinnable.
The opportunity the LibDems have is of peeling away the Tory remainers in the Home Counties, many of whom (from the polling) appear currently to be sticking with the Tories on the basis that Brexit is inevitable. If the LibDems can galvanize a campaign to reverse the 2016 vote they might be peeled away, unlocking a fair few seats in the south.
The way I see realignment happening is the Lib Dems making inroads into traditional Tory seats and demographics, while the Tories do the same to Labour.
I was reluctant to post this earlier because I dislike anecdotal posts but I've been prompted so here goes.
Dinner party in Hampstead last nite (yes, I know....) and two regular Labour voters saying they would vote LD, largely because of Corbyn. I pointed out the local MP, Tulip Siddiq, is a good constituency MP and no Corbynista. Didn't cut any ice.
Siddiq has a big majority but on that evidence even she could be in trouble. One of the two was unemployed, the other an NHS Doctor - both in their fifties.
The LD/Labour battles within London - where the Tories are mostly out of the running - are going to be something to witness.
I find it amazing the Tories still have an MP in Wimbledon
Well be amazed no more! Wimbledon is currently represented by the Independent MP Stephen Hammond.
I don't think he's said what he's doing at the election.
Is the PM going to commit to leaving do or die on Jan 31? If so will the media actually get him to answer what this means? Resignation? If not, it opens up another attack line for Farage - the last one was a bluff and you cant trust the tories to deliver.....
He'll commit to leaving well before 31st January (as long as GBP gives him a majority to do so)
So weaker than his original and failed pledge.....
Another difference which runs counter to that narrative is that not many of the Lib Dem v Tory and Labour v Tory battles overlap, so the potential for a genuine realignment is much greater.
I agree with IanB2's analysis, and in principle with this. The problem is seats like Portsmouth South where it's objectively a Lab-Con marginal (held by Labour) but the LibDems are putting a lot of effort in which may well deliver the seat to the Tories. How the parties allocate their national effort will be very important, and if the LibDems basically go for everywhere they're likely to really be Boris's little helpers. Labour is pretty clear that this is a defensive election - we're not trying hard in many places outside the seats we already hold.
For far too long Labour has relied on our duopoly electoral system to get people to vote for them tactically. Simply insulting voters like myself who will vote Lib Dem as "Tories little helpers" isn't going to blackmail me into voting Labour this time even though I live in a Lab-Con marginal. Sometimes it's not enough to simply not be the Tory Party.
If the Tories win a substantial majority there will only be one person to blame, Jeremy Corbyn. At least an electoral pounding will see the end of Corbyn, Milne etc.
It will then depend on whether the members learn any lessons from the last few years or choose a mini-Corbyn as the next leader. Labour could not have had a worse leader throughout this whole Brexit process and it will be a long time before I am persuaded back into the fold to vote Labour let alone rejoin.
Another difference which runs counter to that narrative is that not many of the Lib Dem v Tory and Labour v Tory battles overlap, so the potential for a genuine realignment is much greater.
True.
ght be peeled away, unlocking a fair few seats in the south.
The wae same to Labour.
I - both in their fifties.
We need to put less emphasis on how big majorities are this time I think.
I think uns might be out the window this time. More about how strong remain vs strong leave
Another difference which runs counter to that narrative is that not many of the Lib Dem v Tory and Labour v Tory battles overlap, so the potential for a genuine realignment is much greater.
True.
Although in a Brexit election given Labour's track record on Brexit and its current leader, ling back from 2017 levels, making many of its targets unwinnable.
The opportunity the LibDems have is of peeling away the Tory remainers in the Home Counties, many of whom (from the polling) appear currently to be sticking with the Tories on the basis that Brexit is inevitable. If the LibDems can galvanize a campaign to reverse the 2016 vote they might be peeled away, unlocking a fair few seats in the south.
The way I see realignment happening is the Lib Dems making inroads into traditional Tory seats and demographics, while the Tories do the same to Labour.
I was reluctant to post this earlier because I dislike anecdotal posts but I've been prompted so here goes.
Dinner party in Hampstead last nite (yes, I know....) and two regular Labour voters saying they would vote LD, largely because of Corbyn. I pointed out the local MP, Tulip Siddiq, is a good constituency MP and no Corbymista. Didn't cut any ice.
Siddiq has a big majority but on that evidence even she could be in trouble. One of the two was unemployed, the other an NHS Doctor - both in their fifties.
We need to put less emphasis on how big majorities are this time I think.
I think uns might be out the window this time. More about how strong remain vs strong leave
Agreed. Hampstead is in the heart of Remainia. I fear for Tulip.
She will be gone...
Her Remain credentials couldn't be better but Corbyn's equivocations have rather undermined candidates like her.
Mr. Above, not convinced Farage will harm Johnson much. In fact, he could help the PM by making him look rather more centrist.
It will be interesting to see how much of a fuss the Brexit Ultras, whether BXP or Conservative, and the Brexit newspapers make about the transition period - paying into EU budget, following EU rules, FoM, having no say etc. I can imagine them making any extension of transition beyond December 2020 just as divisive as extensions of Brexit are now.
Given the lack of time for anything more complicated, the FTA Dec 2020 cliff-edge could become another choice between something like No-Deal, something like BINO, or even trying to rejoin...
OTOH, I suspect the billionaire press barons will be given reassurances by Johnson that their concerns will be met, and the issue might not be so prominent.
On the other hand, Swinson herself might be in trouble. Some of her majority is Tory tactical votes; can't see those holding up.
ALL the pan-British party leaders - bar Caroline Lucas - are in trouble. Uxbridge has a v strong anti-Johnson campaign, and was a marginal in 2017 anyway. The LDs won Corbyn's seat in May, a swing to the SNP could unseat Swinson, and Farage always loses anyway. This is going to be a great election for Portillo moments - but lousy if you've got any meetings the following morning
Lucas alone is safe - because the LDs aren't standing against her. It'd be ironic if she became the sole beneficiary of tactical voting
Jo Swinson on R4. Her strategy is becoming clearer. She wants to shaft Corbyn. "19 of his MPs oted with the Tories. They can't be relied on"
She's growing on me. She seems honest and I know from my small dealings with her party some years ago that she will have some very smart marketing people on board. The ad industry polled something like 98% Remain.
I'd expect the Johnson character question to be central to her campaign.
The LDs could win 100 seats I think, about 40 from each of the main parties. That's if they have a good campaign.
I expect the next election to be dominated by Johnson for similar reasons and that will prevent the Opposition from communicating a positive message to the electorate. It's a trap they need to work hard to avoid.
Why are you so confident of this when we don`t know the extent of BXP involvement? If BXP field a candidate in every constituency I`ll make the bold claim now that the Tories have no chance - nil - of achieving a majority.
If BXP do not fight this election then I agree with you.
My strong sense is that Farage is (for now) in retreat. The people who like him tend to also like Blondie and they trust him on Leave.
This has surprised me - I rate Farage highly as a politician - but it is what I detect occurring.
Perhaps he will be back one day gaining traction at the head of some new and deeply reprehensible movement but not for Dec 9th.
Mr. Above, not convinced Farage will harm Johnson much. In fact, he could help the PM by making him look rather more centrist.
It will be interesting to see how much of a fuss the Brexit Ultras, whether BXP or Conservative, and the Brexit newspapers make about the transition period - paying into EU budget, following EU rules, FoM, having no say etc. I can imagine them making any extension of transition beyond December 2020 just as divisive as extensions of Brexit are now.
Given the lack of time for anything more complicated, the FTA Dec 2020 cliff-edge could become another choice between something like No-Deal, something like BINO, or even trying to rejoin...
OTOH, I suspect the billionaire press barons will be given reassurances by Johnson that their concerns will be met, and the issue might not be so prominent.
More fool anyone who believes Johnson's assurances!
And good morning all, on a bright sunny morning, where my car had, at 8am ice on the windscreen (it is kept outside.)!
I have just been looking at Labour Majorities in london and a lot of them are vast. In some seats where you would think the Lib dems may have a sniff they polled in the hundreds last time versus majs of 30k
Mr. Above, not convinced Farage will harm Johnson much. In fact, he could help the PM by making him look rather more centrist.
It will be interesting to see how much of a fuss the Brexit Ultras, whether BXP or Conservative, and the Brexit newspapers make about the transition period - paying into EU budget, following EU rules, FoM, having no say etc. I can imagine them making any extension of transition beyond December 2020 just as divisive as extensions of Brexit are now.
That's what I think too. Except I don't think people will even wait until the transition is extended; I think as soon as we leave the EU, when people notice that nothing changes immediately, people are going to immediately start up again with their "we've been betrayed" and "the politicians won't listen to us". But this time there'll be an added dash of "they're laughing at us, they think we're so stupid that we wouldn't notice they've kept everything the same even after we left the EU".
The 2017 election was not a Brexit election, as there was nothing between Labour and the Tories, so the long campaign quickly wandered off to other things.
On the other hand, Swinson herself might be in trouble. Some of her majority is Tory tactical votes; can't see those holding up.
ALL the pan-British party leaders - bar Caroline Lucas - are in trouble. Uxbridge has a v strong anti-Johnson campaign, and was a marginal in 2017 anyway. The LDs won Corbyn's seat in May, a swing to the SNP could unseat Swinson, and Farage always loses anyway. This is going to be a great election for Portillo moments - but lousy if you've got any meetings the following morning
Lucas alone is safe - because the LDs aren't standing against her. It'd be ironic if she became the sole beneficiary of tactical voting
Uxbridge must be vulnerable, even if the Arcuri thing remains quiet.
I have just been looking at Labour Majorities in london and a lot of them are vast. In some seats where you would think the Lib dems may have a sniff they polled in the hundreds last time versus majs of 30k
Yes it's in the peripheries and West Country that the LDs have the best prospects. London itself is pretty solidly Labour.
As a non-Conservative, the question to ask is how do you counter Johnson?
The election will be on two fronts - Brexit (obviously), where I suspect Johnson would prefer the tent to be pitched and the domestic agenda which seems all about Johnson promising everything to everyone from more money for the Police, NHS and the Armed Forces along with public sector workers to tax cuts.
Combining the two is the vision thing as we try to imagine a 2020s post-EU Britain. The Johnson vision will be a land of milk and honey where nobody will have the wobbles and Britain will be "the greatest place on Earth" attracting the best and brightest from round the world.
Now, optimism and aspiration are important and they will help but if you have to wait a month to see a GP - not a problem if you have other means of course - you may feel "the greatest place on Earth" is a little overdone and if the price of milk and honey is stagnating living standards for the many and ever-increasing borrowing and deficit that may be expensive milk and manuka.
The centre left has a chance to seize the banner of fiscal conservatism and has a strong message around the environment and climate change. We've also heard little about the "I" word but that's bound to get an airing as the points-based system is forensically examined to see if there is no institutional buias therein.
I suspect the other hope must be to get Johnson rattled in the debates - he has a record to defend and a few inconsistencies to address. We've seen how once cornered he retreats into blustering which may not sit well with all his army of admirers.
The golden rule of Johnson is he will always say whatever he thinks the audience in front of him wants to hear.
Is it Corbyn who has a decision to make now? He goes along with 12th December, hardish Brexit is probably delivered, which he would like, but which he will be recognised as a midwife for.
Or he rejects 12th, gives the Tories a chance to go for 9th, pre-Brexit, or to dig in, but it out of his control and LD/SNP get the electoral consequence of the deal not going through.
Or tables a VNOC to enable an election on 17th December.
Why are you so confident of this when we don`t know the extent of BXP involvement? If BXP field a candidate in every constituency I`ll make the bold claim now that the Tories have no chance - nil - of achieving a majority.
If BXP do not fight this election then I agree with you.
My strong sense is that Farage is (for now) in retreat. The people who like him tend to also like Blondie and they trust him on Leave.
Mr. Above, not convinced Farage will harm Johnson much. In fact, he could help the PM by making him look rather more centrist.
It will be interesting to see how much of a fuss the Brexit Ultras, whether BXP or Conservative, and the Brexit newspapers make about the transition period - paying into EU budget, following EU rules, FoM, having no say etc. I can imagine them making any extension of transition beyond December 2020 just as divisive as extensions of Brexit are now.
That's what I think too. Except I don't think people will even wait until the transition is extended; I think as soon as we leave the EU, when people notice that nothing changes immediately, people are going to immediately start up again with their "we've been betrayed" and "the politicians won't listen to us". But this time there'll be an added dash of "they're laughing at us, they think we're so stupid that we wouldn't notice they've kept everything the same even after we left the EU".
I agree. It will make any extension to the transition period to allow more time for a FTA to be negotiated very difficult. And of course from the other side, the EU will have a bit less to lose next year by refusing an extension - or extracting a price for one. It would be reasonable I guess to agree a longer extension now, so for sure that won't happen.
I have just been looking at Labour Majorities in london and a lot of them are vast. In some seats where you would think the Lib dems may have a sniff they polled in the hundreds last time versus majs of 30k
Yes it's in the peripheries and West Country that the LDs have the best prospects. London itself is pretty solidly Labour.
Revise the SW downwards for the LibDems. Revoke has done them no favours.
On the other hand, Swinson herself might be in trouble. Some of her majority is Tory tactical votes; can't see those holding up.
ALL the pan-British party leaders - bar Caroline Lucas - are in trouble. Uxbridge has a v strong anti-Johnson campaign, and was a marginal in 2017 anyway. The LDs won Corbyn's seat in May, a swing to the SNP could unseat Swinson, and Farage always loses anyway. This is going to be a great election for Portillo moments - but lousy if you've got any meetings the following morning
Lucas alone is safe - because the LDs aren't standing against her. It'd be ironic if she became the sole beneficiary of tactical voting
Given everything that's happened in the last two years, it could be that a forthcoming election gives some very unpredictable results indeed.
There were large clearouts of MPs in 1997 and again in 2010, but those elections mostly followed the UNS model. I'm not sure anyone will be betting on UNS numbers this time around, Peter Snow's famous Swingometer is pretty much broken.
Mr. Above, not convinced Farage will harm Johnson much. In fact, he could help the PM by making him look rather more centrist.
It will be interesting to see how much of a fuss the Brexit Ultras, whether BXP or Conservative, and the Brexit newspapers make about the transition period - paying into EU budget, following EU rules, FoM, having no say etc. I can imagine them making any extension of transition beyond December 2020 just as divisive as extensions of Brexit are now.
Given the lack of time for anything more complicated, the FTA Dec 2020 cliff-edge could become another choice between something like No-Deal, something like BINO, or even trying to rejoin...
OTOH, I suspect the billionaire press barons will be given reassurances by Johnson that their concerns will be met, and the issue might not be so prominent.
More fool anyone who believes Johnson's assurances!
And good morning all, on a bright sunny morning, where my car had, at 8am ice on the windscreen (it is kept outside.)!
A Bugatti owner allegedly wrote to Ettore Bugatti to say that he had cold starting issues. He was told that people who can't afford heated garages can't afford Bugattis.
Jo Swinson on R4. Her strategy is becoming clearer. She wants to shaft Corbyn. "19 of his MPs oted with the Tories. They can't be relied on"
She's growing on me. She seems honest and I know from my small dealings with her party some years ago that she will have some very smart marketing people on board. The ad industry polled something like 98% Remain.
I'd expect the Johnson character question to be central to her campaign.
The LDs could win 100 seats I think, about 40 from each of the main parties. That's if they have a good campaign.
25 seats much more likely.
They are going to lose a bunch of the seats of defectors, so need to make a number of gains just to stand still.
On the other hand, Swinson herself might be in trouble. Some of her majority is Tory tactical votes; can't see those holding up.
ALL the pan-British party leaders - bar Caroline Lucas - are in trouble. Uxbridge has a v strong anti-Johnson campaign, and was a marginal in 2017 anyway. The LDs won Corbyn's seat in May, a swing to the SNP could unseat Swinson, and Farage always loses anyway. This is going to be a great election for Portillo moments - but lousy if you've got any meetings the following morning
Lucas alone is safe - because the LDs aren't standing against her. It'd be ironic if she became the sole beneficiary of tactical voting
It would be a hoot if the Tories won the election and Boris lost his seat.....
I still think there’s residual value in Labour majority bets. Not because I think it will happen but because there’s space for a bubble when Corbyn does ok in a debate, at which point I can take my winnings and look elsewhere.
As a trading bet, yes. In fact I've done that myself at the silly (IMO) price of 30. As you say, there should be layback opportunities. The 30 will also look very good if we don't get the Dec election, if the impasse drags on well into 2020 with Johnson not resigning, no GE, and Brexit not delivered. In that case Johnson's broken promise for 31 Oct 2019 will IMO start to hurt him. If the GE is now, it looks like it won't. It's just a short delay and he appears to the unwary eye to be busting a gut to get us out.
As an example of Government promises versus reality, the Government recently put forward a £2.8 billion NHS infrastructure plan - the problem is the backlog of necessary repair work in the NHS Estate stands at £6.6 billion.
On the other hand, Swinson herself might be in trouble. Some of her majority is Tory tactical votes; can't see those holding up.
ALL the pan-British party leaders - bar Caroline Lucas - are in trouble. Uxbridge has a v strong anti-Johnson campaign, and was a marginal in 2017 anyway. The LDs won Corbyn's seat in May, a swing to the SNP could unseat Swinson, and Farage always loses anyway. This is going to be a great election for Portillo moments - but lousy if you've got any meetings the following morning
Lucas alone is safe - because the LDs aren't standing against her. It'd be ironic if she became the sole beneficiary of tactical voting
It would be a hoot if the Tories won the election and Boris lost his seat.....
The Labour candidate there is a walking disaster.....
On the other hand, Swinson herself might be in trouble. Some of her majority is Tory tactical votes; can't see those holding up.
ALL the pan-British party leaders - bar Caroline Lucas - are in trouble. Uxbridge has a v strong anti-Johnson campaign, and was a marginal in 2017 anyway. The LDs won Corbyn's seat in May, a swing to the SNP could unseat Swinson, and Farage always loses anyway. This is going to be a great election for Portillo moments - but lousy if you've got any meetings the following morning
Lucas alone is safe - because the LDs aren't standing against her. It'd be ironic if she became the sole beneficiary of tactical voting
It would be a hoot if the Tories won the election and Boris lost his seat.....
On the other hand, Swinson herself might be in trouble. Some of her majority is Tory tactical votes; can't see those holding up.
ALL the pan-British party leaders - bar Caroline Lucas - are in trouble. Uxbridge has a v strong anti-Johnson campaign, and was a marginal in 2017 anyway. The LDs won Corbyn's seat in May, a swing to the SNP could unseat Swinson, and Farage always loses anyway. This is going to be a great election for Portillo moments - but lousy if you've got any meetings the following morning
Lucas alone is safe - because the LDs aren't standing against her. It'd be ironic if she became the sole beneficiary of tactical voting
It would be a hoot if the Tories won the election and Boris lost his seat.....
On the other hand, Swinson herself might be in trouble. Some of her majority is Tory tactical votes; can't see those holding up.
ALL the pan-British party leaders - bar Caroline Lucas - are in trouble. Uxbridge has a v strong anti-Johnson campaign, and was a marginal in 2017 anyway. The LDs won Corbyn's seat in May, a swing to the SNP could unseat Swinson, and Farage always loses anyway. This is going to be a great election for Portillo moments - but lousy if you've got any meetings the following morning
Lucas alone is safe - because the LDs aren't standing against her. It'd be ironic if she became the sole beneficiary of tactical voting
It would be a hoot if the Tories won the election and Boris lost his seat.....
A propos nothing but the post delivered a snapshot of the times:-
1) A Lib Dem booklet (admittedly twice the length it would be elsewhere because it’s bilngual, but leaflet would be understating it in all fairness), proclaims our next Prime Minister, Jo Swinson.
2) A homeless charity Xmas appeal.
3) A flyer from McDonalds asking if anybody wanted to work in their new restaurant (sic), two miles up the road.
So, Libs seemingly organised and going for it in Cardiff Central, which they held till 2015 but fell to third last time.(Very university seat, but cannot see they have a prayer, it’s a huge Labour majority with an uber remain MP in an ultra remain seat. But you’ve got to admire the effort).
Homelessness is visibly more of an issue in Cardiff than it was and has been in the news a bit, so you’d have thought meat and drink for the Labour MP to highlight.
There are plentiful jobs with employers apparently sending out search parties for workers. Can’t be bad for Boris.
Something for all there!
The argument will be that voting Labour is voting for the Labour whip rather than the individual MP. Which, in all but the exceptional case, given the way Labour operates is likely to be true.
Indeed. But the sitting MP got 62% of the vote the Libs 13% and the Tories 19%. They’ve got to come from third and overturn a 20k deficit. Not going to happen this side of a cosmic accident, at least here.
This seat is now safer than some Valleys seats.
Larger majority does not always mean the same as safer in practice.
Valleys seats have been Labour for generations - the electorate is very stable (not a lot of people moving in or out), voting Labour is a way of life, and it'd take an earthquake to shift people.
Cardiff Central has a big student vote, a big young professionals vote. For a start that means very high turnover of voters, but these are also people who haven't settled into a particular pattern of voting, and are quite fickle. And the seat voted a very different way quite recently.
I don't know enough about the situation on the ground to know if it's likely to switch this time. I do know it's much more likely to do so than is a seat with a more settled electorate, even if the majority is bigger and therefore it is "safer" on paper.
I'm new to the LibDems as you all know. But I do appreciate good politics when I see it, and the Swinson/Blackford accord is genius: 1. Both parties set to make gains in an election 2. Both parties happy to demonstrate the fright and hypocrisy on Labour benches of wanting an election but refusing to vote for an election 3. A pre-Brexit referendum leaves Johnson wide open to attack. Do or die / die in a ditch liar, rehashed 90% of May's deal, magic money tree. Or vote for proper Brexit under Farage. If you're remain your opportunity is a split leave vote and that means an election before Brexit 4. A lot of problems in a snap December Election. But neutralised by all parties facing same, and Labour/Tory still bitterly divided and arguing vs LibDem/SNP/PC/Green etc ready to go 5. "Shell enable Johnson" hardly a concern when Corbyn as bad. Only way to emasculate both big parties is elect as many non Lab/Con MPs as possible.
Fun times...
Well, I'm in a seat which is on the LibDem target list as they came top in the local elections and the Euros. I know a lot of people who voted LibDem tactically, some of them (pssst!) Labour party members. They are nearly all predominantly motivated by stopping Brexit. They are increasingly repelled by Swinson's tactics, which seem to them to be prioritising party success over the Remain cause; they were unhappy with her refusal to countenance a transitional Corbyn PM arrangement, they all disagreed with the commitment to Revoke (as did some LibDem friends), and the three who I've spoken with since she offered to facilitate an early election say they are appalled and absolutely won't vote LibDem again - "she is going to be the midwife of a Tory landslide, just so she can say she won 20 seats", says one.
You might be picking up dissident Tory votes instead? But certainly you're putting off the tactical Labour vote, and I suspect that's why the LibDem score in most polls is off the boil.
On the other hand, Swinson herself might be in trouble. Some of her majority is Tory tactical votes; can't see those holding up.
ALL the pan-British party leaders - bar Caroline Lucas - are in trouble. Uxbridge has a v strong anti-Johnson campaign, and was a marginal in 2017 anyway. The LDs won Corbyn's seat in May, a swing to the SNP could unseat Swinson, and Farage always loses anyway. This is going to be a great election for Portillo moments - but lousy if you've got any meetings the following morning
Lucas alone is safe - because the LDs aren't standing against her. It'd be ironic if she became the sole beneficiary of tactical voting
It would be a hoot if the Tories won the election and Boris lost his seat.....
It would be perfect for Boris. All of the plaudits but none of the responsibility for anything going wrong later. He’d be back.
On the other hand, Swinson herself might be in trouble. Some of her majority is Tory tactical votes; can't see those holding up.
ALL the pan-British party leaders - bar Caroline Lucas - are in trouble. Uxbridge has a v strong anti-Johnson campaign, and was a marginal in 2017 anyway. The LDs won Corbyn's seat in May, a swing to the SNP could unseat Swinson, and Farage always loses anyway. This is going to be a great election for Portillo moments - but lousy if you've got any meetings the following morning
Lucas alone is safe - because the LDs aren't standing against her. It'd be ironic if she became the sole beneficiary of tactical voting
It would be a hoot if the Tories won the election and Boris lost his seat.....
That would be the best political Karma possible. It would be even better if Mr. Thicky also lost his! (though the latter is v unlikely sadly)
On the other hand, Swinson herself might be in trouble. Some of her majority is Tory tactical votes; can't see those holding up.
ALL the pan-British party leaders - bar Caroline Lucas - are in trouble. Uxbridge has a v strong anti-Johnson campaign, and was a marginal in 2017 anyway. The LDs won Corbyn's seat in May, a swing to the SNP could unseat Swinson, and Farage always loses anyway. This is going to be a great election for Portillo moments - but lousy if you've got any meetings the following morning
Lucas alone is safe - because the LDs aren't standing against her. It'd be ironic if she became the sole beneficiary of tactical voting
It would be a hoot if the Tories won the election and Boris lost his seat.....
The Labour candidate there is a walking disaster.....
Country before party remember. Not my fault that your party has rendered itself completely irrelevant to the real needs unelectable. The rest of us have to work really hard to provide a balance against the Tory landslide that #jc4pm chanters would still proclaim as a triumph because look how many Blairites lost their seats and now the proles will suffer the true injustice of capitalism and embrace True Socialism.
Screw that.
So you rush to call an election when the Tories are miles ahead, and call it "country before party"? That's cobblers, and your new romance is blinding you to it - the LibDems are obviously trying to maximise their seats as their first priority. Most parties do that most of the time, so it's not Original Sin, but it's delusional to pretend otherwise.
We won't agree, but my point is that Swinson is alienating the tacfical vote. You don't need to believe me, obviously, and I'm not a tactical voter, but there have been lots of them round here, and they're being alienated by your tactics. So not only are you putting party before country, but you're doing it in a way that makes it unlikely to even work for your party. It's silly.
I agree with this. I think the stupid move just opens up old wounds about the Coalition, which many Labour voters had now just about forgiven, if not quite forgotten. Dumb play from Jo.
On the other hand, Swinson herself might be in trouble. Some of her majority is Tory tactical votes; can't see those holding up.
ALL the pan-British party leaders - bar Caroline Lucas - are in trouble. Uxbridge has a v strong anti-Johnson campaign, and was a marginal in 2017 anyway. The LDs won Corbyn's seat in May, a swing to the SNP could unseat Swinson, and Farage always loses anyway. This is going to be a great election for Portillo moments - but lousy if you've got any meetings the following morning
Lucas alone is safe - because the LDs aren't standing against her. It'd be ironic if she became the sole beneficiary of tactical voting
It would be a hoot if the Tories won the election and Boris lost his seat.....
On the other hand, Swinson herself might be in trouble. Some of her majority is Tory tactical votes; can't see those holding up.
ALL the pan-British party leaders - bar Caroline Lucas - are in trouble. Uxbridge has a v strong anti-Johnson campaign, and was a marginal in 2017 anyway. The LDs won Corbyn's seat in May, a swing to the SNP could unseat Swinson, and Farage always loses anyway. This is going to be a great election for Portillo moments - but lousy if you've got any meetings the following morning
Lucas alone is safe - because the LDs aren't standing against her. It'd be ironic if she became the sole beneficiary of tactical voting
It would be a hoot if the Tories won the election and Boris lost his seat.....
You won't get extraordinarily long odds on that.
You think it's likely??? Wow!
I was just thinking of a greek-hubris / karma sort of outcome....
I still think there’s residual value in Labour majority bets. Not because I think it will happen but because there’s space for a bubble when Corbyn does ok in a debate, at which point I can take my winnings and look elsewhere.
As a trading bet, yes. In fact I've done that myself at the silly (IMO) price of 30. As you say, there should be layback opportunities. The 30 will also look very good if we don't get the Dec election, if the impasse drags on well into 2020 with Johnson not resigning, no GE, and Brexit not delivered. In that case Johnson's broken promise for 31 Oct 2019 will IMO start to hurt him. If the GE is now, it looks like it won't. It's just a short delay and he appears to the unwary eye to be busting a gut to get us out.
I agree on all counts. Labour is seemingly always underrated, and then hurriedly overrated - there was money to be make trading into (and then out of) a Labour led Gvt in the 24 hours after polling day in 2017. Made up for my Tory majority losses that way.
On the other hand, Swinson herself might be in trouble. Some of her majority is Tory tactical votes; can't see those holding up.
ALL the pan-British party leaders - bar Caroline Lucas - are in trouble. Uxbridge has a v strong anti-Johnson campaign, and was a marginal in 2017 anyway. The LDs won Corbyn's seat in May, a swing to the SNP could unseat Swinson, and Farage always loses anyway. This is going to be a great election for Portillo moments - but lousy if you've got any meetings the following morning
Lucas alone is safe - because the LDs aren't standing against her. It'd be ironic if she became the sole beneficiary of tactical voting
It would be a hoot if the Tories won the election and Boris lost his seat.....
It would be perfect for Boris. All of the plaudits but none of the responsibility for anything going wrong later. He’d be back.
You could well be correct, but the difficulty would be getting back. Any Tory with a safe seat will not be keen on standing aside and I do not think that Boris would have the nerve to stand in a marginal in case he lost. He seems to have a lot of ego to manage....
As the last leader of one of the three main parties to lose his seat was Archibald Sinclair in 1945, I can't see this happening much though it may be desired/wanted.
I think Heath came quite close to losing his seat in 1966 but was still comfortable enough. It just doesn't happen.
All talk of how each party will fair based on Brexit alone is a tad early IMO. Let's see the Manifestos for god's sake and then the turd throwing can really start!!
A propos nothing but the post delivered a snapshot of the times:-
1) A Lib Dem booklet (admittedly twice the length it would be elsewhere because it’s bilngual, but leaflet would be understating it in all fairness), proclaims our next Prime Minister, Jo Swinson.
2) A homeless charity Xmas appeal.
3) A flyer from McDonalds asking if anybody wanted to work in their new restaurant (sic), two miles up the road.
So, Libs seemingly organised and going for it in Cardiff Central, which they held till 2015 but fell to third last time.(Very university seat, but cannot see they have a prayer, it’s a huge Labour majority with an uber remain MP in an ultra remain seat. But you’ve got to admire the effort).
Homelessness is visibly more of an issue in Cardiff than it was and has been in the news a bit, so you’d have thought meat and drink for the Labour MP to highlight.
There are plentiful jobs with employers apparently sending out search parties for workers. Can’t be bad for Boris.
Something for all there!
The argument will be that voting Labour is voting for the Labour whip rather than the individual MP. Which, in all but the exceptional case, given the way Labour operates is likely to be true.
Indeed. But the sitting MP got 62% of the vote the Libs 13% and the Tories 19%. They’ve got to come from third and overturn a 20k deficit. Not going to happen this side of a cosmic accident, at least here.
This seat is now safer than some Valleys seats.
Larger majority does not always mean the same as safer in practice.
Valleys seats have been Labour for generations - the electorate is very stable (not a lot of people moving in or out), voting Labour is a way of life, and it'd take an earthquake to shift people.
Cardiff Central has a big student vote, a big young professionals vote. For a start that means very high turnover of voters, but these are also people who haven't settled into a particular pattern of voting, and are quite fickle. And the seat voted a very different way quite recently.
I don't know enough about the situation on the ground to know if it's likely to switch this time. I do know it's much more likely to do so than is a seat with a more settled electorate, even if the majority is bigger and therefore it is "safer" on paper.
Yes this is true.
It’s a bit of a split old seat. Loads and loads of students, quite a high Asian background vote (for Wales), some classic working class parts, and some seriously leafy bits with some of the highest property prices in Wales. Parts of it are very transient and yes that is very different from the Cynon Valley say, but others parts are classic forever homes where people buy and are carried out in a box decades later.
Jo Swinson on R4. Her strategy is becoming clearer. She wants to shaft Corbyn. "19 of his MPs oted with the Tories. They can't be relied on"
She's growing on me. She seems honest and I know from my small dealings with her party some years ago that she will have some very smart marketing people on board. The ad industry polled something like 98% Remain.
I'd expect the Johnson character question to be central to her campaign.
The LDs could win 100 seats I think, about 40 from each of the main parties. That's if they have a good campaign.
25 seats much more likely.
Even 25 is a more than doubling from last time around.
Of course, in these febrile times, they could get 100. But they could also find themselves still in the teens.
There are really only four or five "nailed on" libdem gains in the country.
Congratulations to William and commiserations to Sean on their longstanding £1,000 wager – surely the most famous PB peer-to-peer bet of all time?
I have no doubt Sean will pay up by the way (I saw some posts earlier about 'tracking him down') – he is not a welcher IMO.
Wasn't it until the end of the year? IIUC it's a flextension and Boris will win points with leavers from bringing it forward, so don't write that off yet...
I have just been looking at Labour Majorities in london and a lot of them are vast. In some seats where you would think the Lib dems may have a sniff they polled in the hundreds last time versus majs of 30k
Yes it's in the peripheries and West Country that the LDs have the best prospects. London itself is pretty solidly Labour.
Other than St Ives, I would have thought the West Country would be far from easy territory for the libdems.
On the other hand, Swinson herself might be in trouble. Some of her majority is Tory tactical votes; can't see those holding up.
ALL the pan-British party leaders - bar Caroline Lucas - are in trouble. Uxbridge has a v strong anti-Johnson campaign, and was a marginal in 2017 anyway. The LDs won Corbyn's seat in May, a swing to the SNP could unseat Swinson, and Farage always loses anyway. This is going to be a great election for Portillo moments - but lousy if you've got any meetings the following morning
Lucas alone is safe - because the LDs aren't standing against her. It'd be ironic if she became the sole beneficiary of tactical voting
None of the big three - Johnson, Corbyn, Swinson - will lose. It's pure fantasy in all three cases.
Johnson is PM (which historically local voters like) and represents a Leave constituency. The campaign against him is likely to galvanise his support, and he can throw resources in if it looks tight.
Corbyn is a popular constituency MP who always wins by a mile. So what if the Lib Dems took it in an exceptional, low turnout Euro election where Corbyn himself wasn't standing? It means next to nothing.
Swinson is the leader of a party polling between two and three times the level it achieved in 2017. She regained her seat with a 10% majority in 2017 - pretty healthy in a four party set up. Again, her profile will help.
It's all very beguiling for enthusiastic party activists to go for this decapitation stuff. All involved would be best focusing on much more winnable seats nearby.
I have just been looking at Labour Majorities in london and a lot of them are vast. In some seats where you would think the Lib dems may have a sniff they polled in the hundreds last time versus majs of 30k
Consider Hornsey and Wood Green. Labour's current majority is 30,738 over the Liberal Democrats in second place. Rock-solid you might think, but look at the history.
1997: Labour majority of 20,499 over the Conservatives in second place. 2010: Liberal Democrat majority of 6,875 over Labour. 2016: 75% Remain vote (17th highest in country) 2019: 32,218 signatures on the "revoke article 50" petition.
That has to be a good shout for a Liberal Democrat gain from Labour.
On the other hand, Swinson herself might be in trouble. Some of her majority is Tory tactical votes; can't see those holding up.
ALL the pan-British party leaders - bar Caroline Lucas - are in trouble. Uxbridge has a v strong anti-Johnson campaign, and was a marginal in 2017 anyway. The LDs won Corbyn's seat in May, a swing to the SNP could unseat Swinson, and Farage always loses anyway. This is going to be a great election for Portillo moments - but lousy if you've got any meetings the following morning
Lucas alone is safe - because the LDs aren't standing against her. It'd be ironic if she became the sole beneficiary of tactical voting
It would be a hoot if the Tories won the election and Boris lost his seat.....
That would be the best political Karma possible. It would be even better if Mr. Thicky also lost his! (though the latter is v unlikely sadly)
If Labour get hammered perhaps Magic Grandpa will retire...
The alternative is the hard Left perceiving the loss as being due to their not being "Pure enough" and starting a purge of anyone who is not to the far left of Stalin or Lenin.
On the other hand, Swinson herself might be in trouble. Some of her majority is Tory tactical votes; can't see those holding up.
ALL the pan-British party leaders - bar Caroline Lucas - are in trouble. Uxbridge has a v strong anti-Johnson campaign, and was a marginal in 2017 anyway. The LDs won Corbyn's seat in May, a swing to the SNP could unseat Swinson, and Farage always loses anyway. This is going to be a great election for Portillo moments - but lousy if you've got any meetings the following morning
Lucas alone is safe - because the LDs aren't standing against her. It'd be ironic if she became the sole beneficiary of tactical voting
It would be a hoot if the Tories won the election and Boris lost his seat.....
On the other hand, Swinson herself might be in trouble. Some of her majority is Tory tactical votes; can't see those holding up.
ALL the pan-British party leaders - bar Caroline Lucas - are in trouble. Uxbridge has a v strong anti-Johnson campaign, and was a marginal in 2017 anyway. The LDs won Corbyn's seat in May, a swing to the SNP could unseat Swinson, and Farage always loses anyway. This is going to be a great election for Portillo moments - but lousy if you've got any meetings the following morning
Lucas alone is safe - because the LDs aren't standing against her. It'd be ironic if she became the sole beneficiary of tactical voting
It would be a hoot if the Tories won the election and Boris lost his seat.....
You won't get extraordinarily long odds on that.
You think it's likely??? Wow!
I was just thinking of a greek-hubris / karma sort of outcome....
Stodge doesn't agree with me and he's one of the shrewdest punters on this Site, but I'm kind of hoping his view prevails for a bit as I am hoping for decent odds on Boris losing his seat. I think there's a lot going against him - and I'm assuming Arcuri is locked up for the time being.
On the other hand, Swinson herself might be in trouble. Some of her majority is Tory tactical votes; can't see those holding up.
ALL the pan-British party leaders - bar Caroline Lucas - are in trouble. Uxbridge has a v strong anti-Johnson campaign, and was a marginal in 2017 anyway. The LDs won Corbyn's seat in May, a swing to the SNP could unseat Swinson, and Farage always loses anyway. This is going to be a great election for Portillo moments - but lousy if you've got any meetings the following morning
Lucas alone is safe - because the LDs aren't standing against her. It'd be ironic if she became the sole beneficiary of tactical voting
It would be a hoot if the Tories won the election and Boris lost his seat.....
It would be perfect for Boris. All of the plaudits but none of the responsibility for anything going wrong later. He’d be back.
You could well be correct, but the difficulty would be getting back. Any Tory with a safe seat will not be keen on standing aside and I do not think that Boris would have the nerve to stand in a marginal in case he lost. He seems to have a lot of ego to manage....
It's simple. You just put someone with a big majority in the Lords. And Boris doesn't have to go anywhere. You don't have to be in Parliament to be Prime Minister.
All talk of how each party will fair based on Brexit alone is a tad early IMO. Let's see the Manifestos for god's sake and then the turd throwing can really start!!
The starting pistol for turd-throwing is a first post on here!
I have just been looking at Labour Majorities in london and a lot of them are vast. In some seats where you would think the Lib dems may have a sniff they polled in the hundreds last time versus majs of 30k
Consider Hornsey and Wood Green. Labour's current majority is 30,738 over the Liberal Democrats in second place. Rock-solid you might think, but look at the history.
1997: Labour majority of 20,499 over the Conservatives in second place. 2010: Liberal Democrat majority of 6,875 over Labour. 2016: 75% Remain vote (17th highest in country) 2019: 32,218 signatures on the "revoke article 50" petition.
That has to be a good shout for a Liberal Democrat gain from Labour.
I have just been looking at Labour Majorities in london and a lot of them are vast. In some seats where you would think the Lib dems may have a sniff they polled in the hundreds last time versus majs of 30k
Yes it's in the peripheries and West Country that the LDs have the best prospects. London itself is pretty solidly Labour.
Other than St Ives, I would have thought the West Country would be far from easy territory for the libdems.
Cheltenham? Wells? Bath? Even the Cotswolds if its Blimpish MP cooperates.
I think they'll do OK, but it's outer London and surrounds that offer most chances.
I have just been looking at Labour Majorities in london and a lot of them are vast. In some seats where you would think the Lib dems may have a sniff they polled in the hundreds last time versus majs of 30k
Consider Hornsey and Wood Green. Labour's current majority is 30,738 over the Liberal Democrats in second place. Rock-solid you might think, but look at the history.
1997: Labour majority of 20,499 over the Conservatives in second place. 2010: Liberal Democrat majority of 6,875 over Labour. 2016: 75% Remain vote (17th highest in country) 2019: 32,218 signatures on the "revoke article 50" petition.
That has to be a good shout for a Liberal Democrat gain from Labour.
I think that's a fair bet for an LD gain.
When Labour MPs with a 30k majority are at serious risk of losing their seat, you can see why they might be looking for excuses to avoid an election!
What is the record for the largest majority overturned in a GE I wonder?
All talk of how each party will fair based on Brexit alone is a tad early IMO. Let's see the Manifestos for god's sake and then the turd throwing can really start!!
The starting pistol for turd-throwing is a first post on here!
What will be the craziest/worst/insane/criticized policy of any party?(apart from Brexit obvs..)
I have just been looking at Labour Majorities in london and a lot of them are vast. In some seats where you would think the Lib dems may have a sniff they polled in the hundreds last time versus majs of 30k
Consider Hornsey and Wood Green. Labour's current majority is 30,738 over the Liberal Democrats in second place. Rock-solid you might think, but look at the history.
1997: Labour majority of 20,499 over the Conservatives in second place. 2010: Liberal Democrat majority of 6,875 over Labour. 2016: 75% Remain vote (17th highest in country) 2019: 32,218 signatures on the "revoke article 50" petition.
That has to be a good shout for a Liberal Democrat gain from Labour.
I think that's a fair bet for an LD gain.
When Labour MPs with a 30k majority are at serious risk of losing their seat, you can see why they might be looking for excuses to avoid an election!
What is the record for the largest majority overturned in a GE I wonder?
Portillo was 15,300, Neil Hamilton 15,800
Any advances on those? (At a GE not a by-election, where the incumbent MP stood and was defeated).
I have just been looking at Labour Majorities in london and a lot of them are vast. In some seats where you would think the Lib dems may have a sniff they polled in the hundreds last time versus majs of 30k
Yes it's in the peripheries and West Country that the LDs have the best prospects. London itself is pretty solidly Labour.
Other than St Ives, I would have thought the West Country would be far from easy territory for the libdems.
Cheltenham? Wells? Bath? Even the Cotswolds if its Blimpish MP cooperates.
I think they'll do OK, but it's outer London and surrounds that offer most chances.
Bath is a good call.
I'm not sure the Cotswolds count as the West Country
I have just been looking at Labour Majorities in london and a lot of them are vast. In some seats where you would think the Lib dems may have a sniff they polled in the hundreds last time versus majs of 30k
Yes it's in the peripheries and West Country that the LDs have the best prospects. London itself is pretty solidly Labour.
Other than St Ives, I would have thought the West Country would be far from easy territory for the libdems.
Cheltenham? Wells? Bath? Even the Cotswolds if its Blimpish MP cooperates.
I think they'll do OK, but it's outer London and surrounds that offer most chances.
Bath is a good call.
I'm not sure the Cotswolds count as the West Country
I have just been looking at Labour Majorities in london and a lot of them are vast. In some seats where you would think the Lib dems may have a sniff they polled in the hundreds last time versus majs of 30k
Consider Hornsey and Wood Green. Labour's current majority is 30,738 over the Liberal Democrats in second place. Rock-solid you might think, but look at the history.
1997: Labour majority of 20,499 over the Conservatives in second place. 2010: Liberal Democrat majority of 6,875 over Labour. 2016: 75% Remain vote (17th highest in country) 2019: 32,218 signatures on the "revoke article 50" petition.
That has to be a good shout for a Liberal Democrat gain from Labour.
I think that's a fair bet for an LD gain.
When Labour MPs with a 30k majority are at serious risk of losing their seat, you can see why they might be looking for excuses to avoid an election!
What is the record for the largest majority overturned in a GE I wonder?
Portillo was 15,300, Neil Hamilton 15,800
Any advances on those? (At a GE not a by-election, where the incumbent MP stood and was defeated).
Comments
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1188766160067743744
I don't think he's said what he's doing at the election.
If the Tories win a substantial majority there will only be one person to blame, Jeremy Corbyn. At least an electoral pounding will see the end of Corbyn, Milne etc.
It will then depend on whether the members learn any lessons from the last few years or choose a mini-Corbyn as the next leader. Labour could not have had a worse leader throughout this whole Brexit process and it will be a long time before I am persuaded back into the fold to vote Labour let alone rejoin.
It's an EU rebate when you've already paid.
Isn't it Byronic? Don't you think?
Given the lack of time for anything more complicated, the FTA Dec 2020 cliff-edge could become another choice between something like No-Deal, something like BINO, or even trying to rejoin...
OTOH, I suspect the billionaire press barons will be given reassurances by Johnson that their concerns will be met, and the issue might not be so prominent.
Lucas alone is safe - because the LDs aren't standing against her. It'd be ironic if she became the sole beneficiary of tactical voting
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/28/right-trolling-posts-political-opponents
I expect the next election to be dominated by Johnson for similar reasons and that will prevent the Opposition from communicating a positive message to the electorate. It's a trap they need to work hard to avoid.
This has surprised me - I rate Farage highly as a politician - but it is what I detect occurring.
Perhaps he will be back one day gaining traction at the head of some new and deeply reprehensible movement but not for Dec 9th.
And good morning all, on a bright sunny morning, where my car had, at 8am ice on the windscreen (it is kept outside.)!
In some seats where you would think the Lib dems may have a sniff they polled in the hundreds last time versus majs of 30k
This will be a Brexit election. No ifs and buts.
The extension is happening and they apparently can't stop the election, so don't they now make a virtue of necessity and vote for it?
The election will be on two fronts - Brexit (obviously), where I suspect Johnson would prefer the tent to be pitched and the domestic agenda which seems all about Johnson promising everything to everyone from more money for the Police, NHS and the Armed Forces along with public sector workers to tax cuts.
Combining the two is the vision thing as we try to imagine a 2020s post-EU Britain. The Johnson vision will be a land of milk and honey where nobody will have the wobbles and Britain will be "the greatest place on Earth" attracting the best and brightest from round the world.
Now, optimism and aspiration are important and they will help but if you have to wait a month to see a GP - not a problem if you have other means of course - you may feel "the greatest place on Earth" is a little overdone and if the price of milk and honey is stagnating living standards for the many and ever-increasing borrowing and deficit that may be expensive milk and manuka.
The centre left has a chance to seize the banner of fiscal conservatism and has a strong message around the environment and climate change. We've also heard little about the "I" word but that's bound to get an airing as the points-based system is forensically examined to see if there is no institutional buias therein.
I suspect the other hope must be to get Johnson rattled in the debates - he has a record to defend and a few inconsistencies to address. We've seen how once cornered he retreats into blustering which may not sit well with all his army of admirers.
The golden rule of Johnson is he will always say whatever he thinks the audience in front of him wants to hear.
(Give her time though!)
There were large clearouts of MPs in 1997 and again in 2010, but those elections mostly followed the UNS model. I'm not sure anyone will be betting on UNS numbers this time around, Peter Snow's famous Swingometer is pretty much broken.
Valleys seats have been Labour for generations - the electorate is very stable (not a lot of people moving in or out), voting Labour is a way of life, and it'd take an earthquake to shift people.
Cardiff Central has a big student vote, a big young professionals vote. For a start that means very high turnover of voters, but these are also people who haven't settled into a particular pattern of voting, and are quite fickle. And the seat voted a very different way quite recently.
I don't know enough about the situation on the ground to know if it's likely to switch this time. I do know it's much more likely to do so than is a seat with a more settled electorate, even if the majority is bigger and therefore it is "safer" on paper.
I was just thinking of a greek-hubris / karma sort of outcome....
I have no doubt Sean will pay up by the way (I saw some posts earlier about 'tracking him down') – he is not a welcher IMO.
I think Heath came quite close to losing his seat in 1966 but was still comfortable enough. It just doesn't happen.
It’s a bit of a split old seat. Loads and loads of students, quite a high Asian background vote (for Wales), some classic working class parts, and some seriously leafy bits with some of the highest property prices in Wales. Parts of it are very transient and yes that is very different from the Cynon Valley say, but others parts are classic forever homes where people buy and are carried out in a box decades later.
Of course, in these febrile times, they could get 100. But they could also find themselves still in the teens.
There are really only four or five "nailed on" libdem gains in the country.
It is only 10% of Sean's favourite boutielle du vin so I am sure he will cope
Johnson is PM (which historically local voters like) and represents a Leave constituency. The campaign against him is likely to galvanise his support, and he can throw resources in if it looks tight.
Corbyn is a popular constituency MP who always wins by a mile. So what if the Lib Dems took it in an exceptional, low turnout Euro election where Corbyn himself wasn't standing? It means next to nothing.
Swinson is the leader of a party polling between two and three times the level it achieved in 2017. She regained her seat with a 10% majority in 2017 - pretty healthy in a four party set up. Again, her profile will help.
It's all very beguiling for enthusiastic party activists to go for this decapitation stuff. All involved would be best focusing on much more winnable seats nearby.
1997: Labour majority of 20,499 over the Conservatives in second place.
2010: Liberal Democrat majority of 6,875 over Labour.
2016: 75% Remain vote (17th highest in country)
2019: 32,218 signatures on the "revoke article 50" petition.
That has to be a good shout for a Liberal Democrat gain from Labour.
The alternative is the hard Left perceiving the loss as being due to their not being "Pure enough" and starting a purge of anyone who is not to the far left of Stalin or Lenin.
Christmas doesn't involve Brexit talk, presents for all!
Fais des bêtises sur Brexit. (2e personne du pluriel impératif)
FFS.
https://twitter.com/WelshDalaiLama/status/1186757361442140160?s=19
Interesting to see what happens on the 31st, Rmebet their polling going off the cliff after the last missed deadline?
I think they'll do OK, but it's outer London and surrounds that offer most chances.
What is the record for the largest majority overturned in a GE I wonder?
Dementia Tax anyone??
Any advances on those? (At a GE not a by-election, where the incumbent MP stood and was defeated).
I'm not sure the Cotswolds count as the West Country