I have just been looking at Labour Majorities in london and a lot of them are vast. In some seats where you would think the Lib dems may have a sniff they polled in the hundreds last time versus majs of 30k
Yes it's in the peripheries and West Country that the LDs have the best prospects. London itself is pretty solidly Labour.
Other than St Ives, I would have thought the West Country would be far from easy territory for the libdems.
Cheltenham? Wells? Bath? Even the Cotswolds if its Blimpish MP cooperates.
I think they'll do OK, but it's outer London and surrounds that offer most chances.
Bath is a good call.
I'm not sure the Cotswolds count as the West Country
The Lib Dems already hold Bath...
I'm not sure even the most LD-sceptic is predicting them to lose seats they already hold (except North Norfolk if Norman Lamb is standing down?).
In terms of gains, I'd only say they're favourites in Sheffield Hallam, Richmond Park and Cheltenham. Maybe St Albans and Lewes at a push. I think St Ives will be a tough nut to crack, despite the small majority.
If Labour get hammered perhaps Magic Grandpa will retire...
The alternative is the hard Left perceiving the loss as being due to their not being "Pure enough" and starting a purge of anyone who is not to the far left of Stalin or Lenin.
This is of course the second significant outcome likely from the election based on the current numbers - the first being a landslide for Johnson and the Conservatives.
How will Corbyn and Labour respond to a fourth defeat? Well, they lost four times from 1979 to 1992 but in 1992 they got close enough to clearly show they were a credible alternative and with Blair in charge from 1994 even more so (I think Labour would have won handsomely in 1997 had Smith still been leader).
If Labour fall back significantly (their post war nadir was 209 in 1983), it's going to be hard to argue against a generational shift as it will look like at least a decade away from power. I suspect one of the younger female Corbyn supporters will inherit (Long-Bailey is 40, Pidcock is 32) and then move away from the Corbyn agenda back towards a centrist platform. In 2024/25 Johnson will have a Government record to defend and some broken promises to explain so I would expect a significant Labour and LD comeback.
I have just been looking at Labour Majorities in london and a lot of them are vast. In some seats where you would think the Lib dems may have a sniff they polled in the hundreds last time versus majs of 30k
Consider Hornsey and Wood Green. Labour's current majority is 30,738 over the Liberal Democrats in second place. Rock-solid you might think, but look at the history.
1997: Labour majority of 20,499 over the Conservatives in second place. 2010: Liberal Democrat majority of 6,875 over Labour. 2016: 75% Remain vote (17th highest in country) 2019: 32,218 signatures on the "revoke article 50" petition.
That has to be a good shout for a Liberal Democrat gain from Labour.
I think that's a fair bet for an LD gain.
When Labour MPs with a 30k majority are at serious risk of losing their seat, you can see why they might be looking for excuses to avoid an election!
What is the record for the largest majority overturned in a GE I wonder?
Portillo was 15,300, Neil Hamilton 15,800
Any advances on those? (At a GE not a by-election, where the incumbent MP stood and was defeated).
Another difference which runs counter to that narrative is that not many of the Lib Dem v Tory and Labour v Tory battles overlap, so the potential for a genuine realignment is much greater.
I agree with IanB2's analysis, and in principle with this. The problem is seats like Portsmouth South where it's objectively a Lab-Con marginal (held by Labour) but the LibDems are putting a lot of effort in which may well deliver the seat to the Tories. How the parties allocate their national effort will be very important, and if the LibDems basically go for everywhere they're likely to really be Boris's little helpers. Labour is pretty clear that this is a defensive election - we're not trying hard in many places outside the seats we already hold.
But on the ground Ports South is rather like Hallam - a Tory/LibDem marginal where Labour did exceptionally well to come through the middle in the unusual circumstances of 2017. I'd put money on Labour being third in both of those seats next time.
Where I agree with you is that Labour's campaign is essentially defensive and wont be looking for many gains. It follows from this that anyone concerned about Brexit who doesn't live in a Labour held seat should be looking to vote LibDem (or for the Remain Alliance, if there is one)
The electoral dynamics of Portsmouth South have changed with Labour likely to enjof first term incumbency. Pre-2017 Mike Hancock relied on tactical Labour votes to win there. No reason for them not to vote Labour now.
I have just been looking at Labour Majorities in london and a lot of them are vast. In some seats where you would think the Lib dems may have a sniff they polled in the hundreds last time versus majs of 30k
Consider Hornsey and Wood Green. Labour's current majority is 30,738 over the Liberal Democrats in second place. Rock-solid you might think, but look at the history.
1997: Labour majority of 20,499 over the Conservatives in second place. 2010: Liberal Democrat majority of 6,875 over Labour. 2016: 75% Remain vote (17th highest in country) 2019: 32,218 signatures on the "revoke article 50" petition.
That has to be a good shout for a Liberal Democrat gain from Labour.
I think that's a fair bet for an LD gain.
When Labour MPs with a 30k majority are at serious risk of losing their seat, you can see why they might be looking for excuses to avoid an election!
What is the record for the largest majority overturned in a GE I wonder?
If Labour get hammered perhaps Magic Grandpa will retire...
The alternative is the hard Left perceiving the loss as being due to their not being "Pure enough" and starting a purge of anyone who is not to the far left of Stalin or Lenin.
This is of course the second significant outcome likely from the election based on the current numbers - the first being a landslide for Johnson and the Conservatives.
How will Corbyn and Labour respond to a fourth defeat? Well, they lost four times from 1979 to 1992 but in 1992 they got close enough to clearly show they were a credible alternative and with Blair in charge from 1994 even more so (I think Labour would have won handsomely in 1997 had Smith still been leader).
If Labour fall back significantly (their post war nadir was 209 in 1983), it's going to be hard to argue against a generational shift as it will look like at least a decade away from power. I suspect one of the younger female Corbyn supporters will inherit (Long-Bailey is 40, Pidcock is 32) and then move away from the Corbyn agenda back towards a centrist platform. In 2024/25 Johnson will have a Government record to defend and some broken promises to explain so I would expect a significant Labour and LD comeback.
You think "insurgency" Pidcock will tack towards a centrist platform?
I have just been looking at Labour Majorities in london and a lot of them are vast. In some seats where you would think the Lib dems may have a sniff they polled in the hundreds last time versus majs of 30k
Yes it's in the peripheries and West Country that the LDs have the best prospects. London itself is pretty solidly Labour.
Other than St Ives, I would have thought the West Country would be far from easy territory for the libdems.
Cheltenham? Wells? Bath? Even the Cotswolds if its Blimpish MP cooperates.
I think they'll do OK, but it's outer London and surrounds that offer most chances.
Bath is a good call.
I'm not sure the Cotswolds count as the West Country
The Lib Dems already hold Bath...
I'm not sure even the most LD-sceptic is predicting them to lose seats they already hold (except North Norfolk if Norman Lamb is standing down?).
In terms of gains, I'd only say they're favourites in Sheffield Hallam, Richmond Park and Cheltenham. Maybe St Albans and Lewes at a push. I think St Ives will be a tough nut to crack, despite the small majority.
In St Albans we have been delivering Daisy leaflets throughout the summer and Autumn.
I have just been looking at Labour Majorities in london and a lot of them are vast. In some seats where you would think the Lib dems may have a sniff they polled in the hundreds last time versus majs of 30k
Yes it's in the peripheries and West Country that the LDs have the best prospects. London itself is pretty solidly Labour.
Other than St Ives, I would have thought the West Country would be far from easy territory for the libdems.
Cheltenham? Wells? Bath? Even the Cotswolds if its Blimpish MP cooperates.
I think they'll do OK, but it's outer London and surrounds that offer most chances.
Bath is a good call.
I'm not sure the Cotswolds count as the West Country
The Lib Dems already hold Bath...
I'm not sure even the most LD-sceptic is predicting them to lose seats they already hold (except North Norfolk if Norman Lamb is standing down?).
In terms of gains, I'd only say they're favourites in Sheffield Hallam, Richmond Park and Cheltenham. Maybe St Albans and Lewes at a push. I think St Ives will be a tough nut to crack, despite the small majority.
In St Albans we have been delivering Daisy leaflets throughout the summer and Autumn.
Sophy Ridge did a vox pops there a few weeks ago; looked very rosy for the LibDems.
If there is an election (as looks likely now) there’s still a fair chance that it won’t be one centred on Brexit. I remember that last time round it was supposed to be a Brexit election and well....that turned out not to be the case. Brexit fatigue now is probably a lot more set in amongst the public than was the case in 2017. That said, the biggest problem for Labour is that even if the public is sympathetic to their messages on public services, austerity etc the incompetence of those within their set up (bar McDonnell) undermines their chances anyway.
I have to say though, I don’t really rate Swinson at all. Corbyn and Boris’ flaws do not make her look great by default. If anything, the Peoples Vote campaign has lost steam since she’s been LD leader and ‘revoke’ is hardly going to be a position that will cast her as as a ‘sensible moderate.’
Boris has been talked up as being better at politics than May, but since he’s come into office he has hardly demonstrated great political acumen. Really, none of these people should be anywhere near power.
kinabalu said: "My strong sense is that Farage is (for now) in retreat. The people who like him tend to also like Blondie and they trust him on Leave."
Dura_Ace said: "People who like Farage also tend to like Blondi."
Another difference which runs counter to that narrative is that not many of the Lib Dem v Tory and Labour v Tory battles overlap, so the potential for a genuine realignment is much greater.
I agree with IanB2's analysis, and in principle with this. The problem is seats like Portsmouth South where it's objectively a Lab-Con marginal (held by Labour) but the LibDems are putting a lot of effort in which may well deliver the seat to the Tories. How the parties allocate their national effort will be very important, and if the LibDems basically go for everywhere they're likely to really be Boris's little helpers. Labour is pretty clear that this is a defensive election - we're not trying hard in many places outside the seats we already hold.
But on the ground Ports South is rather like Hallam - a Tory/LibDem marginal where Labour did exceptionally well to come through the middle in the unusual circumstances of 2017. I'd put money on Labour being third in both of those seats next time.
Where I agree with you is that Labour's campaign is essentially defensive and wont be looking for many gains. It follows from this that anyone concerned about Brexit who doesn't live in a Labour held seat should be looking to vote LibDem (or for the Remain Alliance, if there is one)
The electoral dynamics of Portsmouth South have changed with Labour likely to enjof first term incumbency. Pre-2017 Mike Hancock relied on tactical Labour votes to win there. No reason for them not to vote Labour now.
First term incumbency could be a reducing asset.
As the general public are moving towards a stronger dislike of politicians the first time incumbency bonus could reduce.
Indeed the very fact that you are defending your seat, and therefore one of the despised class of MPs, could soon become neutral to negative for many incumbents, first time or of other duration in the job.
If Labour get hammered perhaps Magic Grandpa will retire...
The alternative is the hard Left perceiving the loss as being due to their not being "Pure enough" and starting a purge of anyone who is not to the far left of Stalin or Lenin.
This is of course the second significant outcome likely from the election based on the current numbers - the first being a landslide for Johnson and the Conservatives.
How will Corbyn and Labour respond to a fourth defeat? Well, they lost four times from 1979 to 1992 but in 1992 they got close enough to clearly show they were a credible alternative and with Blair in charge from 1994 even more so (I think Labour would have won handsomely in 1997 had Smith still been leader).
If Labour fall back significantly (their post war nadir was 209 in 1983), it's going to be hard to argue against a generational shift as it will look like at least a decade away from power. I suspect one of the younger female Corbyn supporters will inherit (Long-Bailey is 40, Pidcock is 32) and then move away from the Corbyn agenda back towards a centrist platform. In 2024/25 Johnson will have a Government record to defend and some broken promises to explain so I would expect a significant Labour and LD comeback.
You think "insurgency" Pidcock will tack towards a centrist platform?
quite.
In any case, even a loss like in 2017 - many, many seats from being even remotely in contention - should see a good bout of defenestrations.
1. Boris throwing the DUP under a bus quite so effortlessly. 2. The immediacy of the forgiveness of Boris by Leavers for failing to deliver his do or die pledge.
Things I have not been surprised at:
1. Arsenal spaffing a two goal lead after going ahead early on.
I have just been looking at Labour Majorities in london and a lot of them are vast. In some seats where you would think the Lib dems may have a sniff they polled in the hundreds last time versus majs of 30k
Consider Hornsey and Wood Green. Labour's current majority is 30,738 over the Liberal Democrats in second place. Rock-solid you might think, but look at the history.
1997: Labour majority of 20,499 over the Conservatives in second place. 2010: Liberal Democrat majority of 6,875 over Labour. 2016: 75% Remain vote (17th highest in country) 2019: 32,218 signatures on the "revoke article 50" petition.
That has to be a good shout for a Liberal Democrat gain from Labour.
I think that's a fair bet for an LD gain.
When Labour MPs with a 30k majority are at serious risk of losing their seat, you can see why they might be looking for excuses to avoid an election!
What is the record for the largest majority overturned in a GE I wonder?
Portillo was 15,300, Neil Hamilton 15,800
Any advances on those? (At a GE not a by-election, where the incumbent MP stood and was defeated).
I have just been looking at Labour Majorities in london and a lot of them are vast. In some seats where you would think the Lib dems may have a sniff they polled in the hundreds last time versus majs of 30k
Yes it's in the peripheries and West Country that the LDs have the best prospects. London itself is pretty solidly Labour.
Other than St Ives, I would have thought the West Country would be far from easy territory for the libdems.
Cheltenham? Wells? Bath? Even the Cotswolds if its Blimpish MP cooperates.
I think they'll do OK, but it's outer London and surrounds that offer most chances.
Bath is a good call.
I'm not sure the Cotswolds count as the West Country
The Lib Dems already hold Bath...
I'm not sure even the most LD-sceptic is predicting them to lose seats they already hold (except North Norfolk if Norman Lamb is standing down?).
In terms of gains, I'd only say they're favourites in Sheffield Hallam, Richmond Park and Cheltenham. Maybe St Albans and Lewes at a push. I think St Ives will be a tough nut to crack, despite the small majority.
I think St Albans and St Ives will be fairly easy libdem gains. Lewes will be harder.
If Labour get hammered perhaps Magic Grandpa will retire...
The alternative is the hard Left perceiving the loss as being due to their not being "Pure enough" and starting a purge of anyone who is not to the far left of Stalin or Lenin.
This is of course the second significant outcome likely from the election based on the current numbers - the first being a landslide for Johnson and the Conservatives.
How will Corbyn and Labour respond to a fourth defeat? Well, they lost four times from 1979 to 1992 but in 1992 they got close enough to clearly show they were a credible alternative and with Blair in charge from 1994 even more so (I think Labour would have won handsomely in 1997 had Smith still been leader).
If Labour fall back significantly (their post war nadir was 209 in 1983), it's going to be hard to argue against a generational shift as it will look like at least a decade away from power. I suspect one of the younger female Corbyn supporters will inherit (Long-Bailey is 40, Pidcock is 32) and then move away from the Corbyn agenda back towards a centrist platform. In 2024/25 Johnson will have a Government record to defend and some broken promises to explain so I would expect a significant Labour and LD comeback.
You think "insurgency" Pidcock will tack towards a centrist platform?
Is there any evidence that Piddock is popular with members in the first place? Although what counts as ‘centrist’ is not a fixed thing. Centrism is not a concept that is forever stuck in the mid 90s. Back in 2010, questioning the government’s policy on welfare/universal credit wasn’t seen as very mainstream or centrist, now in the last few years it’s become more mainstream to do so.
Mr. Above, not convinced Farage will harm Johnson much. In fact, he could help the PM by making him look rather more centrist.
It will be interesting to see how much of a fuss the Brexit Ultras, whether BXP or Conservative, and the Brexit newspapers make about the transition period - paying into EU budget, following EU rules, FoM, having no say etc. I can imagine them making any extension of transition beyond December 2020 just as divisive as extensions of Brexit are now.
That's what I think too. Except I don't think people will even wait until the transition is extended; I think as soon as we leave the EU, when people notice that nothing changes immediately, people are going to immediately start up again with their "we've been betrayed" and "the politicians won't listen to us". But this time there'll be an added dash of "they're laughing at us, they think we're so stupid that we wouldn't notice they've kept everything the same even after we left the EU".
I think the crucial time will be in the run-up to the end of June, when Boris will have to ask for an extension to the transition period. That is going to cause serious trouble in the Conservative Party, and give Farage a perfect attack line.
Topping said: "The immediacy of the forgiveness of Boris by Leavers for failing to deliver his do or die pledge."
That`s easy - they recognise (correctly) that it wasn`t his fault and that he busted a gut to make it happen. Blame is being - at last - correctly placed at the remain MPs feet (esp Labour).
I'm trying to model the effect of concentration of support. We can see the concentration effect vividly with the SNP on only 4% of the vote with 35 seats. But what about the concentration of LibDem support and effort?
Suppose, for the sake of illustration,that the LibDems have moved from 7% last time to 14% now. UNS is an arithmetic adjustment. In this case it adds 7% to the LibDem share everywhere ignoring the concentration effect. A share of 2% would move to 9%. A share of 30% would move to 37%. It would be like adding 1% to the SNP share in every constituency in the UK if the SNP moved from 4% to 5%!
I think there may be a multiplicative effect as well. In the example above, the LibDem share has doubled nationally so assume it has doubled in each constituency. From 2% to 4% in one constituency and from 30% to 60% in another.
On my model, the LibDems get 31 seats on the additive assumption and 64 on the multiplicative assumption. It makes a big difference.
I use a mix of 75% additive and 25% multiplicative giving 39 LibDems seats (plus an extra 8 from tactical voting assumptions) making 47.
For what's it's worth, my tactical model with 75% additive and 25% multiplicative gives:
Con 310 (302-321) Lab 223 (228-216) LD 47 (50-43) SNP 51
This is before the campaign has started. The figures in brackets show the effect of the Tories losing 2% to BXP and gaining 2% from BXP.
If there is an election (as looks likely now) there’s still a fair chance that it won’t be one centred on Brexit. I remember that last time round it was supposed to be a Brexit election and well....that turned out not to be the case. Brexit fatigue now is probably a lot more set in amongst the public than was the case in 2017. That said, the biggest problem for Labour is that even if the public is sympathetic to their messages on public services, austerity etc the incompetence of those within their set up (bar McDonnell) undermines their chances anyway.
Tbh, I don't really see this competence in McDonnell that others see. He takes Corbyn's flaws to the opposite extreme: where Corbyn is painfully slow to react to things and goes weeks barely saying anything of substance, McDonnell talks too much and says a ton of contradictory things which need to be U-turned on.
La Thornberry is the closest thing to a competent operator in Labour's top team IMO.
If there is an election (as looks likely now) there’s still a fair chance that it won’t be one centred on Brexit. I remember that last time round it was supposed to be a Brexit election and well....that turned out not to be the case. ...
I think Brexit was a massive factor at GE2017 and saw Remain voters rally to Labour to prevent Theresa May from winning a free hand to implement a hard Brexit.
"Get it done" vs "dither and delay" could win Johnson victory in our second Brexit election, for all that the slogan is inaccurate.
If Labour get hammered perhaps Magic Grandpa will retire...
The alternative is the hard Left perceiving the loss as being due to their not being "Pure enough" and starting a purge of anyone who is not to the far left of Stalin or Lenin.
This is of course the second significant outcome likely from the election based on the current numbers - the first being a landslide for Johnson and the Conservatives.
How will Corbyn and Labour respond to a fourth defeat? Well, they lost four times from 1979 to 1992 but in 1992 they got close enough to clearly show they were a credible alternative and with Blair in charge from 1994 even more so (I think Labour would have won handsomely in 1997 had Smith still been leader).
If Labour fall back significantly (their post war nadir was 209 in 1983), it's going to be hard to argue against a generational shift as it will look like at least a decade away from power. I suspect one of the younger female Corbyn supporters will inherit (Long-Bailey is 40, Pidcock is 32) and then move away from the Corbyn agenda back towards a centrist platform. In 2024/25 Johnson will have a Government record to defend and some broken promises to explain so I would expect a significant Labour and LD comeback.
You think "insurgency" Pidcock will tack towards a centrist platform?
Is there any evidence that Piddock is popular with members in the first place? Although what counts as ‘centrist’ is not a fixed thing. Centrism is not a concept that is forever stuck in the mid 90s. Back in 2010, questioning the government’s policy on welfare/universal credit wasn’t seen as very mainstream or centrist, now in the last few years it’s become more mainstream to do so.
JohnOwls has said it will be Pidcock on a number of threads if I am not mistaken.
Topping said: "The immediacy of the forgiveness of Boris by Leavers for failing to deliver his do or die pledge."
That`s easy - they recognise (correctly) that it wasn`t his fault and that he busted a gut to make it happen. Blame is being - at last - correctly placed at the remain MPs feet (esp Labour).
What changed between him making his pledge and him failing to see his pledge through? Did the Labour party undergo a huge transformation which meant he could no longer rely on their support?
If there is an election (as looks likely now) there’s still a fair chance that it won’t be one centred on Brexit. I remember that last time round it was supposed to be a Brexit election and well....that turned out not to be the case. Brexit fatigue now is probably a lot more set in amongst the public than was the case in 2017. That said, the biggest problem for Labour is that even if the public is sympathetic to their messages on public services, austerity etc the incompetence of those within their set up (bar McDonnell) undermines their chances anyway.
Tbh, I don't really see this competence in McDonnell that others see. He takes Corbyn's flaws to the opposite extreme: where Corbyn is painfully slow to react to things and goes weeks barely saying anything of substance, McDonnell talks too much and says a ton of contradictory things which need to be U-turned on.
La Thornberry is the closest thing to a competent operator in Labour's top team IMO.
From what I’ve seen he’s been fairly consistent in being more sympathetic to a second referendum/Pro Remain position. That said, as you’re a much more closer observer of Labour than I’ve been in the last year or so, I will take your word for it re McDonnell’s flaws. I did think his comments on Blair in that recent Campbell interview were ill-advised.
As the last leader of one of the three main parties to lose his seat was Archibald Sinclair in 1945, I can't see this happening much though it may be desired/wanted.
I think Heath came quite close to losing his seat in 1966 but was still comfortable enough. It just doesn't happen.
Thorpe nearly lost in 1970 - as indeed did Farron in 2017.
I have just been looking at Labour Majorities in london and a lot of them are vast. In some seats where you would think the Lib dems may have a sniff they polled in the hundreds last time versus majs of 30k
Yes it's in the peripheries and West Country that the LDs have the best prospects. London itself is pretty solidly Labour.
Other than St Ives, I would have thought the West Country would be far from easy territory for the libdems.
Cheltenham? Wells? Bath? Even the Cotswolds if its Blimpish MP cooperates.
I think they'll do OK, but it's outer London and surrounds that offer most chances.
Bath is a good call.
I'm not sure the Cotswolds count as the West Country
The Lib Dems already hold Bath...
I'm not sure even the most LD-sceptic is predicting them to lose seats they already hold (except North Norfolk if Norman Lamb is standing down?).
In terms of gains, I'd only say they're favourites in Sheffield Hallam, Richmond Park and Cheltenham. Maybe St Albans and Lewes at a push. I think St Ives will be a tough nut to crack, despite the small majority.
In St Albans we have been delivering Daisy leaflets throughout the summer and Autumn.
Sophy Ridge did a vox pops there a few weeks ago; looked very rosy for the LibDems.
I think she'll take it at a canter: (1) Daisy avoided the squeeze in 2017 (indeed managed a reverse squeeze), and has been working really hard, (2) The LDs had a stellar local election performance in the St Albans this year, and (3) on UNS it's an easy gain anway.
If the LibDems have a bit of dosh to spare, can I respectfully suggest that they divert a tiny bit of it into paying for a decent hairdresser for Ms Swinson?
Jo Swinson on R4. Her strategy is becoming clearer. She wants to shaft Corbyn. "19 of his MPs oted with the Tories. They can't be relied on"
She's growing on me. She seems honest and I know from my small dealings with her party some years ago that she will have some very smart marketing people on board. The ad industry polled something like 98% Remain.
I'd expect the Johnson character question to be central to her campaign.
The LDs could win 100 seats I think, about 40 from each of the main parties. That's if they have a good campaign.
25 seats much more likely.
Even 25 is a more than doubling from last time around.
Of course, in these febrile times, they could get 100. But they could also find themselves still in the teens.
There are really only four or five "nailed on" libdem gains in the country.
Jo Swinson on R4. Her strategy is becoming clearer. She wants to shaft Corbyn. "19 of his MPs oted with the Tories. They can't be relied on"
She's growing on me. She seems honest and I know from my small dealings with her party some years ago that she will have some very smart marketing people on board. The ad industry polled something like 98% Remain.
I'd expect the Johnson character question to be central to her campaign.
The LDs could win 100 seats I think, about 40 from each of the main parties. That's if they have a good campaign.
25 seats much more likely.
The problem Labour has is that if the polls continue to show a Labour rout then the steady flow to the LDs could become a flood. Once the rationale for a tactical vote goes Labour is in deep trouble.
They rely on non-Labour voters backing them solely to keep the Tories out. If it becomes obvious that Labour are not going to keep the Tories out you may as well vote for a party you actually want.
If the LibDems have a bit of dosh to spare, can I respectfully suggest that they divert a tiny bit of it into paying for a decent hairdresser for Ms Swinson?
As long as she avoids the one Bozo uses she should be OK.
If there is an election (as looks likely now) there’s still a fair chance that it won’t be one centred on Brexit. I remember that last time round it was supposed to be a Brexit election and well....that turned out not to be the case. ...
I think Brexit was a massive factor at GE2017 and saw Remain voters rally to Labour to prevent Theresa May from winning a free hand to implement a hard Brexit.
"Get it done" vs "dither and delay" could win Johnson victory in our second Brexit election, for all that the slogan is inaccurate.
That’s a good point - although it appeared that Corbyn’s popularity grew the more he was talking about public services and other non Brexit related matters.
I agree that given Brexit fatigue the ‘get it done’ message could deliver for Johnson. The biggest obstacle for the Remain parties is explaining why Brexit will never simply be ‘over’ but will be a long process that goes on even after we leave. I fear that people will have to see it in order to believe it first.
If the LibDems have a bit of dosh to spare, can I respectfully suggest that they divert a tiny bit of it into paying for a decent hairdresser for Ms Swinson?
That's an unnecessarily waspish jibe. How is that of any relevance to anything?
Topping said: "What changed between him making his pledge and him failing to see his pledge through? Did the Labour party undergo a huge transformation which meant he could no longer rely on their support?"
Well, Bercow made rules up on the hoof and remainer MPs took control and implemented the Benn Act. Boris can hardly be blamed for this. He gets A++ for effort.
Congratulations to William and commiserations to Sean on their longstanding £1,000 wager – surely the most famous PB peer-to-peer bet of all time?
I have no doubt Sean will pay up by the way (I saw some posts earlier about 'tracking him down') – he is not a welcher IMO.
It ain't over till it's over: the bet was, still in on 31/12.
Brexit has been extended until 31 Jan – that's the earliest we will be leaving IMO.
I expect Boris will campaign to leave on the 31st December, making the 1st January 2020 brexit day as permitted under the EU agreement on the extension
I am not betting on Boris winning a majority but
'Lets get this done and start 2020 having left the EU. No more delay - it is done'
Is a powerful message
Which of course we know it is not done by a long distance but many do not understand the implications
If the LibDems have a bit of dosh to spare, can I respectfully suggest that they divert a tiny bit of it into paying for a decent hairdresser for Ms Swinson?
That's an unnecessarily waspish jibe. How is that of any relevance to anything?
It's not waspish, it's genuine advice. Her hair looks awful, particularly with the way she sweeps it behind her ears. It looks as though she hasn't washed it for weeks.
At some stage is any politician going to point out that these delays to Brexit are making no substantive difference other than eating into negotiation time in the transition? We had always expected to be de facto (non-voting) members at the minute. We’re not extending Brexit so much as losing time to negotiate the new deal. Surely that next phase, and further (real) extensions has to be a key part of the election campaign?
Actually, no, I’ve met the general public. It won’t be.
I'm trying to model the effect of concentration of support. We can see the concentration effect vividly with the SNP on only 4% of the vote with 35 seats. But what about the concentration of LibDem support and effort?
Suppose, for the sake of illustration,that the LibDems have moved from 7% last time to 14% now. UNS is an arithmetic adjustment. In this case it adds 7% to the LibDem share everywhere ignoring the concentration effect. A share of 2% would move to 9%. A share of 30% would move to 37%. It would be like adding 1% to the SNP share in every constituency in the UK if the SNP moved from 4% to 5%!
I think there may be a multiplicative effect as well. In the example above, the LibDem share has doubled nationally so assume it has doubled in each constituency. From 2% to 4% in one constituency and from 30% to 60% in another.
On my model, the LibDems get 31 seats on the additive assumption and 64 on the multiplicative assumption. It makes a big difference.
I use a mix of 75% additive and 25% multiplicative giving 39 LibDems seats (plus an extra 8 from tactical voting assumptions) making 47.
For what's it's worth, my tactical model with 75% additive and 25% multiplicative gives:
Con 310 (302-321) Lab 223 (228-216) LD 47 (50-43) SNP 51
This is before the campaign has started. The figures in brackets show the effect of the Tories losing 2% to BXP and gaining 2% from BXP.
Interesting, less volatility there in the Tory BXP swings than I would have assumed.
The 2017 election was not a Brexit election, as there was nothing between Labour and the Tories, so the long campaign quickly wandered off to other things.
This will be a Brexit election. No ifs and buts.
Rewriting history there. May was absolutely clear what the election was about when she called. It was only once she lost her majority that leavers started telling us it was nothing to do with Brexit.
People vote for many different reasons but substantial numbers of remainers held their nose and voted for Corbyn in 2017 in response to May's clarion call to give her a big majority to carry out her version of Brexit.
Who will Johnson propose as the UK candidate to be an EU commissioner?
I would laugh if it was David Cameron...
Ironically, it's the type of role at which DC would excel. They'd probably stick him somewhere irrelevant and out of the way like ECHO. There is no way the UK will retain the HOME commission even after we decide to revoke.
Topping said: "What changed between him making his pledge and him failing to see his pledge through? Did the Labour party undergo a huge transformation which meant he could no longer rely on their support?"
Well, Bercow made rules up on the hoof and remainer MPs took control and implemented the Benn Act. Boris can hardly be blamed for this. He gets A++ for effort.
Surely he and Dom wargamed all that? Please don't tell me this is not all part of the master plan?
A do or die pledge (and I can't believe I am saying this) is something that should only be rolled out when there is certainty of execution. Not as in a vague let's hope so I hope they don't gang up on us but the might because they are the opposition, after all and I don't have a majority kind of way.
Topping said: "What changed between him making his pledge and him failing to see his pledge through? Did the Labour party undergo a huge transformation which meant he could no longer rely on their support?"
Well, Bercow made rules up on the hoof and remainer MPs took control and implemented the Benn Act. Boris can hardly be blamed for this. He gets A++ for effort.
He can absolutely be blamed for not anticipating it when he made a promise he couldn't keep
2. The immediacy of the forgiveness of Boris by Leavers for failing to deliver his do or die pledge.
It's too early to judge that. Many people will only notice when we're still in the EU in November, and some not even then.
Well I think we can use Mark Francois as our go to pulse of the leaver guy. Has he said anything? Apart from anything else it all makes him look like a(n even more super duper no holds barred) twat.
I have just been looking at Labour Majorities in london and a lot of them are vast. In some seats where you would think the Lib dems may have a sniff they polled in the hundreds last time versus majs of 30k
Yes it's in the peripheries and West Country that the LDs have the best prospects. London itself is pretty solidly Labour.
Other than St Ives, I would have thought the West Country would be far from easy territory for the libdems.
Cheltenham? Wells? Bath? Even the Cotswolds if its Blimpish MP cooperates.
I think they'll do OK, but it's outer London and surrounds that offer most chances.
Bath is a good call.
I'm not sure the Cotswolds count as the West Country
The Lib Dems already hold Bath...
I'm not sure even the most LD-sceptic is predicting them to lose seats they already hold (except North Norfolk if Norman Lamb is standing down?).
In terms of gains, I'd only say they're favourites in Sheffield Hallam, Richmond Park and Cheltenham. Maybe St Albans and Lewes at a push. I think St Ives will be a tough nut to crack, despite the small majority.
Electoral Calculus gives them the following gains:
Bermondsey & Old Southwark - personally view, Lab hold Cambridge - probable Lab Hold Ceredigion - probable LD gain Cheadle - also a good shout for an LD gain Cheltenham - probable LD gain Cornwall North - Con hold Devon North - Con hold Fife NE - probably LD gain Hazel Grove - probable LD gain Leeds NW - Lab hold Lewes - Con hold Richmond Park - nailed on LD gain Sheffield Hallam - likely LD gain Southport - Con hold St Albans - likely LD gain St Ives - likely LD gain Thornbury & Yate - likely Con hold Wells - likely Con hold Winchester - TCTC
I would also add Cambridgeshire South as a likely LD gain. The seat has been trending LD for a good while now, is super Remain-y, and has Heidi Allen as MP.
In London, the City of London seat is a possible, as is Hornsey & Wood Green. Finchley and Golders Greens is also unlikely but possible.
So, I'd reckon there are probably ten seats that the LDs don't hold right now, where I'd make them them the favourites.
1) Hammond doesn`t get whip back 2) He runs in GE as an independent 3) Conservatives run with a different candidate 4) LibDems and Labour decide not to contest the seat
Congratulations to William and commiserations to Sean on their longstanding £1,000 wager – surely the most famous PB peer-to-peer bet of all time?
I have no doubt Sean will pay up by the way (I saw some posts earlier about 'tracking him down') – he is not a welcher IMO.
It ain't over till it's over: the bet was, still in on 31/12.
Brexit has been extended until 31 Jan – that's the earliest we will be leaving IMO.
I expect Boris will campaign to leave on the 31st December, making the 1st January 2020 brexit day as permitted under the EU agreement on the extension
I am not betting on Boris winning a majority but
'Lets get this done and start 2020 having left the EU. No more delay - it is done'
Is a powerful message
Which of course we know it is not done by a long distance but many do not understand the implications
31st December is still very tight for getting the legislation through by Xmas even if the election is on the LibDem/SNP suggested date of the 9th December (and remember that the European parliament also has to ratify, which they won't do until the UK parliament has).
If the LibDems have a bit of dosh to spare, can I respectfully suggest that they divert a tiny bit of it into paying for a decent hairdresser for Ms Swinson?
As long as she avoids the one Bozo uses she should be OK.
On the subject of referendums, latish last night the role of the electoral commission and Parliament was discussed and that it is for Parliament to instruct the electoral commission on the options for consideration and that the electoral commission decides on the format, and not that the electoral commision are able to include no deal etc as it is beyond Parliaments mandate.
The discussion convinced me I was wrong in saying the electoral commission could force no deal onto the ballot and it is a demonstration of PB at it's best when a sensible argument can change an opinion.
I hold my hands up to this one. I was wrong.
Notwithstanding these comments I still believe the pressure in the new HOC to give a three choice option in a referendum, if that were to come about, would be convincing
Parliament can legislate for whatever it likes
But excluding no deal would undermine the perceived legitimacy of the result
And hence it would not be a stable end point
I've got some sympathy for that, but it's the same undefined option as the original leave vote. If the public votes for no deal, then what? There ill ultimately be deals, some kind of FTA, mini deals to keep things moving a bit in the short term. Some people will see those or some of those deals as betrayal.
It would need to be set very specifically in terms of red lines, e.g. - Option 1 - remain (with state before referendum) - Option 2 - Boris deal (for withdrawal, future relationship negotiations will go on) - Option 3 - Immediately on exit day no ongoing payments (beyond already agreed liabilities), no ECJ jurisdiction, no freedom of movement, other deals will be made as government desires, including some ultimate FTA (with explicit warning that this will take years) - Possible other options for May's deal, Norway etc
No deal is literally just “leave the EU without a WA”.
There is no restriction on future deals because we live in a world where there are other countries.
I have just been looking at Labour Majorities in london and a lot of them are vast. In some seats where you would think the Lib dems may have a sniff they polled in the hundreds last time versus majs of 30k
Yes it's in the peripheries and West Country that the LDs have the best prospects. London itself is pretty solidly Labour.
Other than St Ives, I would have thought the West Country would be far from easy territory for the libdems.
Cheltenham? Wells? Bath? Even the Cotswolds if its Blimpish MP cooperates.
I think they'll do OK, but it's outer London and surrounds that offer most chances.
Bath is a good call.
I'm not sure the Cotswolds count as the West Country
Bath already is LibDem isn't it?
Yes. My apologies. I was thinking of Yeovil and misthunk.
Don't want to get into a geographical spat. The two main towns in the Cotswolds constituency are Cirencester and Stroud. Rightly or wrobnly I tend to think of both as West Country, but I am sure the good folk of Somerset have their own views.
Jo Swinson on R4. Her strategy is becoming clearer. She wants to shaft Corbyn. "19 of his MPs oted with the Tories. They can't be relied on"
She's growing on me. She seems honest and I know from my small dealings with her party some years ago that she will have some very smart marketing people on board. The ad industry polled something like 98% Remain.
I'd expect the Johnson character question to be central to her campaign.
The LDs could win 100 seats I think, about 40 from each of the main parties. That's if they have a good campaign.
25 seats much more likely.
The problem Labour has is that if the polls continue to show a Labour rout then the steady flow to the LDs could become a flood. Once the rationale for a tactical vote goes Labour is in deep trouble.
They rely on non-Labour voters backing them solely to keep the Tories out. If it becomes obvious that Labour are not going to keep the Tories out you may as well vote for a party you actually want.
If the LibDems want to supplant Labour as one of the two main parties, then they have to covet every single vote. One of the big two collects votes from others tactically, but it will not donate them.
Encouraging your supporters to vote tactically strengthens your nearest challenger and weakens you. Until Libdems grow beyond the adolescent stage of vote donors they won't grow into an adult party that is one of the main two.
If the LibDems have a bit of dosh to spare, can I respectfully suggest that they divert a tiny bit of it into paying for a decent hairdresser for Ms Swinson?
As long as she avoids the one Bozo uses she should be OK.
On the subject of referendums, latish last night the role of the electoral commission and Parliament was discussed and that it is for Parliament to instruct the electoral commission on the options for consideration and that the electoral commission decides on the format, and not that the electoral commision are able to include no deal etc as it is beyond Parliaments mandate.
The discussion convinced me I was wrong in saying the electoral commission could force no deal onto the ballot and it is a demonstration of PB at it's best when a sensible argument can change an opinion.
I hold my hands up to this one. I was wrong.
Notwithstanding these comments I still believe the pressure in the new HOC to give a three choice option in a referendum, if that were to come about, would be convincing
Parliament can legislate for whatever it likes
But excluding no deal would undermine the perceived legitimacy of the result
And hence it would not be a stable end point
I've got some sympathy for that, but it's the same undefined option as the original leave vote. If the public votes for no deal, then what? There ill ultimately be deals, some kind of FTA, mini deals to keep things moving a bit in the short term. Some people will see those or some of those deals as betrayal.
It would need to be set very specifically in terms of red lines, e.g. - Option 1 - remain (with state before referendum) - Option 2 - Boris deal (for withdrawal, future relationship negotiations will go on) - Option 3 - Immediately on exit day no ongoing payments (beyond already agreed liabilities), no ECJ jurisdiction, no freedom of movement, other deals will be made as government desires, including some ultimate FTA (with explicit warning that this will take years) - Possible other options for May's deal, Norway etc
No deal is literally just “leave the EU without a WA”.
There is no restriction on future deals because we live in a world where there are other countries.
So WAII coming to a table near you the UK-EU negotiators in short order.
You think "insurgency" Pidcock will tack towards a centrist platform?
Unfortunately like most political novices you're making the mistake of not looking at the bigger picture. Many if not most politicians aspire to Government because power and power means being able to get done the things you want done (whether your motives are benign or malevolent).
The next Labour leader will quickly realise going down the hard Left route is a dead end and will be in a position where over time and with care they can move the Party back to more centrist policy positions. The Neil Kinnock of 1992 was a world away from the Neil Kinnock of 1983 - time and the possibility of office will do that.
Assuming Laura Pidcock isn't a complete idiot (please, leave out the sarky one liners, they demean this site and the numpties who post them), she will realise the route to power requires compromise and will be in a position (given her ideological roots) to bring that about.
By 2025 she could look a very different political figure. For the record, I think Rebecca Long-Bailey is the more credible candidate.
The voters aren't going to give Bozo an overall majority but our unfair electoral system probably will. When it comes to claiming mandates there is a difference. The only government in recent memory that could actually claim a real mandate for its programme is the Cameron-Clegg coalition.
As the last leader of one of the three main parties to lose his seat was Archibald Sinclair in 1945, I can't see this happening much though it may be desired/wanted.
I think Heath came quite close to losing his seat in 1966 but was still comfortable enough. It just doesn't happen.
Thorpe nearly lost in 1970 - as indeed did Farron in 2017.
Not a main three, I know, but Trimble lost in 2005.
2. The immediacy of the forgiveness of Boris by Leavers for failing to deliver his do or die pledge.
It's too early to judge that. Many people will only notice when we're still in the EU in November, and some not even then.
Ever since he was elected it's been an amusing sport for Leavers to watch Remainers discussing amongst themselves why each twist of events turned out not to be the expected final straw that caused Leavers to turn on Johnson.
2. The immediacy of the forgiveness of Boris by Leavers for failing to deliver his do or die pledge.
It's too early to judge that. Many people will only notice when we're still in the EU in November, and some not even then.
Ever since he was elected it's been an amusing sport for Leavers to watch Remainers discussing amongst themselves why each twist of events turned out not to be the expected final straw that caused Leavers to turn on Johnson.
True, people under-estimated Leavers' gullibility.
If the LibDems have a bit of dosh to spare, can I respectfully suggest that they divert a tiny bit of it into paying for a decent hairdresser for Ms Swinson?
I have just been looking at Labour Majorities in london and a lot of them are vast. In some seats where you would think the Lib dems may have a sniff they polled in the hundreds last time versus majs of 30k
Yes it's in the peripheries and West Country that the LDs have the best prospects. London itself is pretty solidly Labour.
Other than St Ives, I would have thought the West Country would be far from easy territory for the libdems.
Cheltenham? Wells? Bath? Even the Cotswolds if its Blimpish MP cooperates.
I think they'll do OK, but it's outer London and surrounds that offer most chances.
Bath is a good call.
I'm not sure the Cotswolds count as the West Country
The Lib Dems already hold Bath...
I'm not sure even the most LD-sceptic is predicting them to lose seats they already hold (except North Norfolk if Norman Lamb is standing down?).
In terms of gains, I'd only say they're favourites in Sheffield Hallam, Richmond Park and Cheltenham. Maybe St Albans and Lewes at a push. I think St Ives will be a tough nut to crack, despite the small majority.
Electoral Calculus gives them the following gains:
Bermondsey & Old Southwark - personally view, Lab hold Cambridge - probable Lab Hold Ceredigion - probable LD gain Cheadle - also a good shout for an LD gain Cheltenham - probable LD gain Cornwall North - Con hold Devon North - Con hold Fife NE - probably LD gain Hazel Grove - probable LD gain Leeds NW - Lab hold Lewes - Con hold Richmond Park - nailed on LD gain Sheffield Hallam - likely LD gain Southport - Con hold St Albans - likely LD gain St Ives - likely LD gain Thornbury & Yate - likely Con hold Wells - likely Con hold Winchester - TCTC
I would also add Cambridgeshire South as a likely LD gain. The seat has been trending LD for a good while now, is super Remain-y, and has Heidi Allen as MP.
In London, the City of London seat is a possible, as is Hornsey & Wood Green. Finchley and Golders Greens is also unlikely but possible.
So, I'd reckon there are probably ten seats that the LDs don't hold right now, where I'd make them them the favourites.
Good point on South Cambridgeshire, I'd agree with you on that.
I think Bermondsey only falls if the LDs top 20% nationally. Simon Hughes's personal vote wearing off would probably almost cancel out a modest "natural" swing to the LibDems there I think. Cheadle and Hazel Grove are plausible LD gains, I guess.
I'd actually say Southport is possibly the most likely Labour gain in the country (though still not that likely).
My understanding is that the Lib Dems now have more than twice the war chest that they had in 2017 and is growing by the day. This is showing up not only in the deluge of literature going out but also in a larger on line presence.
My understanding is that the Lib Dems now have more than twice the war chest that they had in 2017 and is growing by the day. This is showing up not only in the deluge of literature going out but also in a larger on line presence.
Yes, and they are very sensibly spending it on upping their profile in target seats before the spending limits kick in.
So Macron doesn't ride to the leavers' rescue. What a shock!
I was sceptical of the stories about that, the Brexit supporting media like to perpetuate a 'them against us' narrotive that then gets reported in other media outlets less sympathetic to Brexit. On the same note I did not think the UK would leave on 31st Oct 2019 either and I held this view back in the early summer. lol to those who were taken in by "do or die" - being gullible is not a good look!
I have just been looking at Labour Majorities in london and a lot of them are vast. In some seats where you would think the Lib dems may have a sniff they polled in the hundreds last time versus majs of 30k
Yes it's in the peripheries and West Country that the LDs have the best prospects. London itself is pretty solidly Labour.
Other than St Ives, I would have thought the West Country would be far from easy territory for the libdems.
Cheltenham? Wells? Bath? Even the Cotswolds if its Blimpish MP cooperates.
I think they'll do OK, but it's outer London and surrounds that offer most chances.
Bath is a good call.
I'm not sure the Cotswolds count as the West Country
The Lib Dems already hold Bath...
I'm not sure even the most LD-sceptic is predicting them to lose seats they already hold (except North Norfolk if Norman Lamb is standing down?).
In terms of gains, I'd only say they're favourites in Sheffield Hallam, Richmond Park and Cheltenham. Maybe St Albans and Lewes at a push. I think St Ives will be a tough nut to crack, despite the small majority.
There is talk of Zac Goldsmith moving to Sam Gymiahs seat
Judging by labour spokespeople this morning and McDonnell just now, the lib dems have blindsided them and they are incandescent with rage
If this gets out of control labour and lib dems will be in full on battle to win the propaganda war and Boris slips through the midddle
There is a danger for the lib dems in as much it may secure a 5 year Boris government in which case the tuition fee debacle will look like a walk in the park
However, if it goes well and the lib dems hold the balance of power they get their referendum and will have won a spectacular result
Fair play to Jo Swinson and her advisors, they have gambled big time on this
Good point on South Cambridgeshire, I'd agree with you on that.
I think Bermondsey only falls if the LDs top 20% nationally. Simon Hughes's personal vote wearing off would probably almost cancel out a modest "natural" swing to the LibDems there I think. Cheadle and Hazel Grove are plausible LD gains, I guess.
I'd actually say Southport is possibly the most likely Labour gain in the country (though still not that likely).
I don't think Bermondsey falls unless the LDs are really close to Labour in national vote share. It's not really fertile LD territory, and the LDs only gained a single extra councillor in 2018 when they were surging in other parts of London. I'd be pretty surprised if they won that.
I think they'll do better in the inner suburbs: Hampstead is likely to become a three way marginal again, they'll surge (but likely fall short) in Finchley & Golders Green, and Hornsey & Wood Green is also likely become more yellow. I don't have the LDs as favourites in any of these, but in the scenario where they make it to 20% nationally, then they're in with a shout.
If the LibDems have a bit of dosh to spare, can I respectfully suggest that they divert a tiny bit of it into paying for a decent hairdresser for Ms Swinson?
What do you recommend @Richard_Nabavi ? Bangs? Layers? Sweep bob? Graduated fringe?
2. The immediacy of the forgiveness of Boris by Leavers for failing to deliver his do or die pledge.
It's too early to judge that. Many people will only notice when we're still in the EU in November, and some not even then.
Ever since he was elected it's been an amusing sport for Leavers to watch Remainers discussing amongst themselves why each twist of events turned out not to be the expected final straw that caused Leavers to turn on Johnson.
True, people under-estimated Leavers' gullibility.
I admit that the constant insults get a bit wearing, but you come to expect it here.
Comments
I'm not sure even the most LD-sceptic is predicting them to lose seats they already hold (except North Norfolk if Norman Lamb is standing down?).
In terms of gains, I'd only say they're favourites in Sheffield Hallam, Richmond Park and Cheltenham. Maybe St Albans and Lewes at a push. I think St Ives will be a tough nut to crack, despite the small majority.
How will Corbyn and Labour respond to a fourth defeat? Well, they lost four times from 1979 to 1992 but in 1992 they got close enough to clearly show they were a credible alternative and with Blair in charge from 1994 even more so (I think Labour would have won handsomely in 1997 had Smith still been leader).
If Labour fall back significantly (their post war nadir was 209 in 1983), it's going to be hard to argue against a generational shift as it will look like at least a decade away from power. I suspect one of the younger female Corbyn supporters will inherit (Long-Bailey is 40, Pidcock is 32) and then move away from the Corbyn agenda back towards a centrist platform. In 2024/25 Johnson will have a Government record to defend and some broken promises to explain so I would expect a significant Labour and LD comeback.
https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1188777686539345922
"As a non-Conservative, the question to ask is how do you counter Johnson?"
As a non-Conservative, the question to ask is how do you counter Corbyn?
I have to say though, I don’t really rate Swinson at all. Corbyn and Boris’ flaws do not make her look great by default. If anything, the Peoples Vote campaign has lost steam since she’s been LD leader and ‘revoke’ is hardly going to be a position that will cast her as as a ‘sensible moderate.’
Boris has been talked up as being better at politics than May, but since he’s come into office he has hardly demonstrated great political acumen. Really, none of these people should be anywhere near power.
"My strong sense is that Farage is (for now) in retreat. The people who like him tend to also like Blondie and they trust him on Leave."
Dura_Ace said: "People who like Farage also tend to like Blondi."
Dura_Ace hits it out the park again.
As the general public are moving towards a stronger dislike of politicians the first time incumbency bonus could reduce.
Indeed the very fact that you are defending your seat, and therefore one of the despised class of MPs, could soon become neutral to negative for many incumbents, first time or of other duration in the job.
In any case, even a loss like in 2017 - many, many seats from being even remotely in contention - should see a good bout of defenestrations.
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1188781157434957824
1. Boris throwing the DUP under a bus quite so effortlessly.
2. The immediacy of the forgiveness of Boris by Leavers for failing to deliver his do or die pledge.
Things I have not been surprised at:
1. Arsenal spaffing a two goal lead after going ahead early on.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kirkcaldy_and_Cowdenbeath_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
I think Scotland 2015 is definitely the right place to go looking for these.
That`s easy - they recognise (correctly) that it wasn`t his fault and that he busted a gut to make it happen. Blame is being - at last - correctly placed at the remain MPs feet (esp Labour).
Suppose, for the sake of illustration,that the LibDems have moved from 7% last time to 14% now. UNS is an arithmetic adjustment. In this case it adds 7% to the LibDem share everywhere ignoring the concentration effect. A share of 2% would move to 9%. A share of 30% would move to 37%. It would be like adding 1% to the SNP share in every constituency in the UK if the SNP moved from 4% to 5%!
I think there may be a multiplicative effect as well. In the example above, the LibDem share has doubled nationally so assume it has doubled in each constituency. From 2% to 4% in one constituency and from 30% to 60% in another.
On my model, the LibDems get 31 seats on the additive assumption and 64 on the multiplicative assumption. It makes a big difference.
I use a mix of 75% additive and 25% multiplicative giving 39 LibDems seats (plus an extra 8 from tactical voting assumptions) making 47.
For what's it's worth, my tactical model with 75% additive and 25% multiplicative gives:
Con 310 (302-321)
Lab 223 (228-216)
LD 47 (50-43)
SNP 51
This is before the campaign has started. The figures in brackets show the effect of the Tories losing 2% to BXP and gaining 2% from BXP.
I have no idea how fundraising has gone on for any of the parties over the last 6 months or so.
La Thornberry is the closest thing to a competent operator in Labour's top team IMO.
"Get it done" vs "dither and delay" could win Johnson victory in our second Brexit election, for all that the slogan is inaccurate.
They rely on non-Labour voters backing them solely to keep the Tories out. If it becomes obvious that Labour are not going to keep the Tories out you may as well vote for a party you actually want.
I agree that given Brexit fatigue the ‘get it done’ message could deliver for Johnson. The biggest obstacle for the Remain parties is explaining why Brexit will never simply be ‘over’ but will be a long process that goes on even after we leave. I fear that people will have to see it in order to believe it first.
Well, Bercow made rules up on the hoof and remainer MPs took control and implemented the Benn Act. Boris can hardly be blamed for this. He gets A++ for effort.
I am not betting on Boris winning a majority but
'Lets get this done and start 2020 having left the EU. No more delay - it is done'
Is a powerful message
Which of course we know it is not done by a long distance but many do not understand the implications
Actually, no, I’ve met the general public. It won’t be.
People vote for many different reasons but substantial numbers of remainers held their nose and voted for Corbyn in 2017 in response to May's clarion call to give her a big majority to carry out her version of Brexit.
A do or die pledge (and I can't believe I am saying this) is something that should only be rolled out when there is certainty of execution. Not as in a vague let's hope so I hope they don't gang up on us but the might because they are the opposition, after all and I don't have a majority kind of way.
Bermondsey & Old Southwark - personally view, Lab hold
Cambridge - probable Lab Hold
Ceredigion - probable LD gain
Cheadle - also a good shout for an LD gain
Cheltenham - probable LD gain
Cornwall North - Con hold
Devon North - Con hold
Fife NE - probably LD gain
Hazel Grove - probable LD gain
Leeds NW - Lab hold
Lewes - Con hold
Richmond Park - nailed on LD gain
Sheffield Hallam - likely LD gain
Southport - Con hold
St Albans - likely LD gain
St Ives - likely LD gain
Thornbury & Yate - likely Con hold
Wells - likely Con hold
Winchester - TCTC
I would also add Cambridgeshire South as a likely LD gain. The seat has been trending LD for a good while now, is super Remain-y, and has Heidi Allen as MP.
In London, the City of London seat is a possible, as is Hornsey & Wood Green. Finchley and Golders Greens is also unlikely but possible.
So, I'd reckon there are probably ten seats that the LDs don't hold right now, where I'd make them them the favourites.
1) Hammond doesn`t get whip back
2) He runs in GE as an independent
3) Conservatives run with a different candidate
4) LibDems and Labour decide not to contest the seat
Who wins? Hammond as Independant or the CP?
There is no restriction on future deals because we live in a world where there are other countries.
Don't want to get into a geographical spat. The two main towns in the Cotswolds constituency are Cirencester and Stroud. Rightly or wrobnly I tend to think of both as West Country, but I am sure the good folk of Somerset have their own views.
Encouraging your supporters to vote tactically strengthens your nearest challenger and weakens you. Until Libdems grow beyond the adolescent stage of vote donors they won't grow into an adult party that is one of the main two.
youthe UK-EU negotiators in short order.The next Labour leader will quickly realise going down the hard Left route is a dead end and will be in a position where over time and with care they can move the Party back to more centrist policy positions. The Neil Kinnock of 1992 was a world away from the Neil Kinnock of 1983 - time and the possibility of office will do that.
Assuming Laura Pidcock isn't a complete idiot (please, leave out the sarky one liners, they demean this site and the numpties who post them), she will realise the route to power requires compromise and will be in a position (given her ideological roots) to bring that about.
By 2025 she could look a very different political figure. For the record, I think Rebecca Long-Bailey is the more credible candidate.
Betting PostF1: backed Verstappen at 10 (10.5 with boost) each way to win in the US. That's a fifth the odds top three, so green if it's a podium.
I was hugely surprised by the pace of the Red Bull in both qualifying and the race. His odds should be rather shorter, I think.
The voters aren't going to give Bozo an overall majority but our unfair electoral system probably will. When it comes to claiming mandates there is a difference. The only government in recent memory that could actually claim a real mandate for its programme is the Cameron-Clegg coalition.
Mexico is special, though... as is young Max’s ability to encounter other cars on the track.
I think Bermondsey only falls if the LDs top 20% nationally. Simon Hughes's personal vote wearing off would probably almost cancel out a modest "natural" swing to the LibDems there I think. Cheadle and Hazel Grove are plausible LD gains, I guess.
I'd actually say Southport is possibly the most likely Labour gain in the country (though still not that likely).
https://twitter.com/titaniamcgrath/status/1188778954179727360?s=21
Insulting people who currently prefer the LDs to Corbyn is not a great strategy for winning them back
https://twitter.com/peoplesvote_uk/status/1188787791158755328?s=21
If this gets out of control labour and lib dems will be in full on battle to win the propaganda war and Boris slips through the midddle
There is a danger for the lib dems in as much it may secure a 5 year Boris government in which case the tuition fee debacle will look like a walk in the park
However, if it goes well and the lib dems hold the balance of power they get their referendum and will have won a spectacular result
Fair play to Jo Swinson and her advisors, they have gambled big time on this
I think they'll do better in the inner suburbs: Hampstead is likely to become a three way marginal again, they'll surge (but likely fall short) in Finchley & Golders Green, and Hornsey & Wood Green is also likely become more yellow. I don't have the LDs as favourites in any of these, but in the scenario where they make it to 20% nationally, then they're in with a shout.
Yes indeed. Pretty obvious play by Swinson though.
LibDems and SNP would be barmy not to want an election asap. And Labour would be barmy to want one.
This is why Corbyn keeps going on about how he wants a GE whilst voting not to have one.
I await with breathless anticipation.....
What weird names some constituencies have