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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’m betting that Farage’s Brexit party will get fewer than

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited October 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’m betting that Farage’s Brexit party will get fewer than 4 MPs

Even at a time when Brexit totally dominating the news we are not seeing much of Nigel Farage who appears to be keeping a low profile at the moment. He’s opposed to the deal which has not endeared him to many of the party’s followers.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Spreadbetting. Yuk. At least you've found a sensible trade.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,099
    That sounds like a solid professional punt.
  • I agree they will almost certainly get below four (and probably zero). The trouble is the downside risk... it is just conceivable that the vote splits four ways and they pick up a few dozen seats. Is it likely? Not at all. But the loss if they did would be crippling, whereas the gains are limited by the fact they can't get fewer than zero.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,916
    After the May Deal and May extended the Brexit Party were polling about 20 to 25%+ and could have got 50 to 100 seats if not more.

    With Boris and the Boris Deal though which more Leavers support than the May Deal and the refusal of Boris to ask for an extension himself, the Brexit Party are now polling at UKIP 2015 levels ie about 11% and unlikely to get more than the 1 seat UKIP got then
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,099

    I agree they will almost certainly get below four (and probably zero). The trouble is the downside risk... it is just conceivable that the vote splits four ways and they pick up a few dozen seats. Is it likely? Not at all. But the loss if they did would be crippling, whereas the gains are limited by the fact they can't get fewer than zero.

    Absolutely. That's why it's a bet for professionals not recreationals. Selling often is.
  • I'll sell SNP at 47 at a quid a seat if any of you boasty Separatists want to Buy at that level with me.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Surely the big sell is UKIP at 0.25...
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    I would be selling the Tory/Lib dem.spread at 269 based off that
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    timmo said:

    Surely the big sell is UKIP at 0.25...

    UKIP under 100,000 votes must be a near certainty. I cant see them standing in more than 100 seats at most and will get under 1000 in most if not all of them
  • A sound bet, with the proviso that @SirNorfolkPassmore has already pointed out. In fact, betting that UKIP get less than a quarter of a seat is probably even safer!

    Otherwise I don't immediately see any compelling trades at these prices. Maybe a buy of the LibDems at 48?
  • It's a brave investment that could come badly unstuck if the Tories feel the need to cut a deal with Farage. Johnson has already indicated his refusal to do so, which ought to be warning enough.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    It's a brave investment that could come badly unstuck if the Tories feel the need to cut a deal with Farage. Johnson has already indicated his refusal to do so, which ought to be warning enough.

    Yep, for example the Tories wont unseat Yvette but if they stood aside the BXP might
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited October 2019
    The Tories bear a high share of responsibility for the present impasse which owes a lot to their decision to choose such a compulsive liar as their leader. Few trust him.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    HYUFD said:

    After the May Deal and May extended the Brexit Party were polling about 20 to 25%+ and could have got 50 to 100 seats if not more.

    With Boris and the Boris Deal though which more Leavers support than the May Deal and the refusal of Boris to ask for an extension himself, the Brexit Party are now polling at UKIP 2015 levels ie about 11% and unlikely to get more than the 1 seat UKIP got then

    Presumably the risk to the Tories here is that once the Johnson deal becomes better understood there will be a move back towards BXP by those who rejected the May deal on grounds of perceived surrender of sovereignty and the inability of NI to leave fully - given that it still falls foul of those purity tests. Or maybe not - perhaps those objections are essentially driven by the spin machine that Johnson now owns, and BXP won’t be able to get the airtime any more.

    Incidentally, this whole thing about Boris not asking for an extension: it does seem that you’re saying that he hasn’t complied with the Benn Act, which may become a bit problematic when the Scottish court reconvenes. Would your preference be for him to be found in contempt for not complying, or to not be found in contempt because the court is of the view that he did in fact comply by sending a letter seeking an extension?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,236
    Good spot. I think the number for the Brexit party is very likely to be zero. 4 gives a very considerable margin of comfort. Is UKIP even going to be standing in more than a handful of seats?

    Labour seats looks quite mean to me. I don't think I would be selling at 205.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469

    A sound bet, with the proviso that @SirNorfolkPassmore has already pointed out. In fact, betting that UKIP get less than a quarter of a seat is probably even safer!

    Otherwise I don't immediately see any compelling trades at these prices. Maybe a buy of the LibDems at 48?

    If you want to do that SKy bets line is Lib dems over 40.5 at 5/6 which I think is cracking
  • LD,s look like a sell to me there. Labour will squeeze them and I can't see them taking more than 15 off the tories
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    edited October 2019
    "This brings me to my latest general election spread bet. The current SportingIndex speads are above and I’ve just sold Brexit party seats at the 4 level. This means I win my stake multiplied by how far short of 4 the party gets in terms of seats."

    Strange to explain the potential upside of the bet (to laymen I presume) and not mention the downside

    I guess selling at 4 could be seen as a good bet, my question would be why do it now when BXP are keeping their powder dry? Do we think the price will be significantly lower nearer the time? Farage could be all over the tv come the GE campaign and the price might artificially shoot up
  • I'll sell SNP at 47 at a quid a seat if any of you boasty Separatists want to Buy at that level with me.

    Did anyone see my MP Kirsty Blackman on All Out Politics?

    What an embarrassment - bra straps for all to see.

    Heaven level - Silly Samuel
    Purgatory level - Cooper
    Hell level - Kirsty Blackman
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,709
    My sole sale in this market is UKIP. There is a small chance of copping a huge tail risk with BXP sale though it's negligible with UKIP (Even their Youtubers are barely onboard these days).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,916
    justin124 said:

    The Tories bear a high share of responsibility for the present impasse which owes a lot to their decision to choose such a compulsive liar as their leader. Few trust him.

    As opposed to Labour who have chosen the most untrustworthy and unpopular leader of the opposition since the War
  • timmo said:

    Surely the big sell is UKIP at 0.25...

    You underestimate Dick Braine at your peril.
  • Presumably Mike doesn't think that voters will believe that the PM has "surrendered" by sending-the-letter/not-sending-the-letter mandated by the Benn/Surrender Act.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    The Tories bear a high share of responsibility for the present impasse which owes a lot to their decision to choose such a compulsive liar as their leader. Few trust him.

    As opposed to Labour who have chosen the most untrustworthy and unpopular leader of the opposition since the War
    Regardless of his lack of popularity, Corbyn is not viewed as a compulsive liar - not even by his opponents.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,938
    edited October 2019
    justin124 said:

    The Tories bear a high share of responsibility for the present impasse which owes a lot to their decision to choose such a compulsive liar as their leader. Few trust him.

    The "we don't trust Boris" line is bullshit. Labour would find a reason not to trust St. Teresa of Calcutta if that stopped them getting their arses handed to them in an election.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,948

    timmo said:

    Surely the big sell is UKIP at 0.25...

    You underestimate Dick Braine at your peril.
    I misspell Dick Braine at even worse peril... :)
  • timmo said:

    A sound bet, with the proviso that @SirNorfolkPassmore has already pointed out. In fact, betting that UKIP get less than a quarter of a seat is probably even safer!

    Otherwise I don't immediately see any compelling trades at these prices. Maybe a buy of the LibDems at 48?

    If you want to do that SKy bets line is Lib dems over 40.5 at 5/6 which I think is cracking
    I've just noticed Ladbrokes have the line at 37.5.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,916
    Polruan said:

    HYUFD said:

    After the May Deal and May extended the Brexit Party were polling about 20 to 25%+ and could have got 50 to 100 seats if not more.

    With Boris and the Boris Deal though which more Leavers support than the May Deal and the refusal of Boris to ask for an extension himself, the Brexit Party are now polling at UKIP 2015 levels ie about 11% and unlikely to get more than the 1 seat UKIP got then

    Presumably the risk to the Tories here is that once the Johnson deal becomes better understood there will be a move back towards BXP by those who rejected the May deal on grounds of perceived surrender of sovereignty and the inability of NI to leave fully - given that it still falls foul of those purity tests. Or maybe not - perhaps those objections are essentially driven by the spin machine that Johnson now owns, and BXP won’t be able to get the airtime any more.

    Incidentally, this whole thing about Boris not asking for an extension: it does seem that you’re saying that he hasn’t complied with the Benn Act, which may become a bit problematic when the Scottish court reconvenes. Would your preference be for him to be found in contempt for not complying, or to not be found in contempt because the court is of the view that he did in fact comply by sending a letter seeking an extension?
    There won't, as as long as GB leaves the EU, the single market and customs union most Leavers don't care if the backstop stays for Northern Ireland even if the DUP do.

    The court can say what it wants, Boris has already won the political war as the polling shows as Leavers still back him and by next week it will be irrelevant anyway as the EU will already have decided the new extension date whether Macron vetoes a longer extension or not
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,938
    DavidL said:

    Good spot. I think the number for the Brexit party is very likely to be zero. 4 gives a very considerable margin of comfort. Is UKIP even going to be standing in more than a handful of seats?

    Labour seats looks quite mean to me. I don't think I would be selling at 205.

    Zero means Farage not winning again......
  • Presumably Mike doesn't think that voters will believe that the PM has "surrendered" by sending-the-letter/not-sending-the-letter mandated by the Benn/Surrender Act.

    Not necessarily. He may just feel that the Brexit Party's ceiling is too low for them to pick up serious numbers of seats, even if they do serious harm to the Tories by taking 15-20% in quite a few places.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 27,914
    HYUFD said:

    Polruan said:

    HYUFD said:

    After the May Deal and May extended the Brexit Party were polling about 20 to 25%+ and could have got 50 to 100 seats if not more.

    With Boris and the Boris Deal though which more Leavers support than the May Deal and the refusal of Boris to ask for an extension himself, the Brexit Party are now polling at UKIP 2015 levels ie about 11% and unlikely to get more than the 1 seat UKIP got then

    Presumably the risk to the Tories here is that once the Johnson deal becomes better understood there will be a move back towards BXP by those who rejected the May deal on grounds of perceived surrender of sovereignty and the inability of NI to leave fully - given that it still falls foul of those purity tests. Or maybe not - perhaps those objections are essentially driven by the spin machine that Johnson now owns, and BXP won’t be able to get the airtime any more.

    Incidentally, this whole thing about Boris not asking for an extension: it does seem that you’re saying that he hasn’t complied with the Benn Act, which may become a bit problematic when the Scottish court reconvenes. Would your preference be for him to be found in contempt for not complying, or to not be found in contempt because the court is of the view that he did in fact comply by sending a letter seeking an extension?
    There won't, as as long as GB leaves the EU, the single market and customs union most Leavers don't care if the backstop stays for Northern Ireland even if the DUP do.

    The court can say what it wants, Boris has already won the political war as the polling shows as Leavers still back him and by next week it will be irrelevant anyway as the EU will already have decided the new extension date whether Macron vetoes a longer extension or not
    You haven't answered the question.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,938
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    The Tories bear a high share of responsibility for the present impasse which owes a lot to their decision to choose such a compulsive liar as their leader. Few trust him.

    As opposed to Labour who have chosen the most untrustworthy and unpopular leader of the opposition since the War
    Regardless of his lack of popularity, Corbyn is not viewed as a compulsive liar - not even by his opponents.
    Oh, he is by many. Wreath-laying, anybody?
  • timmo said:

    Surely the big sell is UKIP at 0.25...

    You underestimate Dick Braine at your peril.

    UKIP leader suspended over data theft allegations
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50125853
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,610
    edited October 2019
    On topic: "This brings me to my latest general election spread bet. The current SportingIndex speads are above and I’ve just sold Brexit party seats at the 4 level. This means I win my stake multiplied by how far short of 4 the party gets in terms of seats."

    Betfair`s BXP Seats market has 0-9 seats is 1/5. Buying money - but I can`t be arsed to bet as far odds on as that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,916
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    The Tories bear a high share of responsibility for the present impasse which owes a lot to their decision to choose such a compulsive liar as their leader. Few trust him.

    As opposed to Labour who have chosen the most untrustworthy and unpopular leader of the opposition since the War
    Regardless of his lack of popularity, Corbyn is not viewed as a compulsive liar - not even by his opponents.
    Corbyn is viewed as anti Semitic and untrustworthy by his opponents, as well as incompetent
  • timmo said:

    Surely the big sell is UKIP at 0.25...

    You underestimate Dick Braine at your peril.

    UKIP leader suspended over data theft allegations
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50125853
    A trivial bump in the road for Dick Braine.
  • justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    The Tories bear a high share of responsibility for the present impasse which owes a lot to their decision to choose such a compulsive liar as their leader. Few trust him.

    As opposed to Labour who have chosen the most untrustworthy and unpopular leader of the opposition since the War
    Regardless of his lack of popularity, Corbyn is not viewed as a compulsive liar - not even by his opponents.
    filing for posterity.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,873
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Polruan said:

    HYUFD said:

    After the May Deal and May extended the Brexit Party were polling about 20 to 25%+ and could have got 50 to 100 seats if not more.

    With Boris and the Boris Deal though which more Leavers support than the May Deal and the refusal of Boris to ask for an extension himself, the Brexit Party are now polling at UKIP 2015 levels ie about 11% and unlikely to get more than the 1 seat UKIP got then

    Presumably the risk to the Tories here is that once the Johnson deal becomes better understood there will be a move back towards BXP by those who rejected the May deal on grounds of perceived surrender of sovereignty and the inability of NI to leave fully - given that it still falls foul of those purity tests. Or maybe not - perhaps those objections are essentially driven by the spin machine that Johnson now owns, and BXP won’t be able to get the airtime any more.

    Incidentally, this whole thing about Boris not asking for an extension: it does seem that you’re saying that he hasn’t complied with the Benn Act, which may become a bit problematic when the Scottish court reconvenes. Would your preference be for him to be found in contempt for not complying, or to not be found in contempt because the court is of the view that he did in fact comply by sending a letter seeking an extension?
    There won't, as as long as GB leaves the EU, the single market and customs union most Leavers don't care if the backstop stays for Northern Ireland even if the DUP do.

    The court can say what it wants, Boris has already won the political war as the polling shows as Leavers still back him and by next week it will be irrelevant anyway as the EU will already have decided the new extension date whether Macron vetoes a longer extension or not
    You haven't answered the question.
    HYUFD never does. He just posts something else in response.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 27,914
    kjh said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Polruan said:

    HYUFD said:

    After the May Deal and May extended the Brexit Party were polling about 20 to 25%+ and could have got 50 to 100 seats if not more.

    With Boris and the Boris Deal though which more Leavers support than the May Deal and the refusal of Boris to ask for an extension himself, the Brexit Party are now polling at UKIP 2015 levels ie about 11% and unlikely to get more than the 1 seat UKIP got then

    Presumably the risk to the Tories here is that once the Johnson deal becomes better understood there will be a move back towards BXP by those who rejected the May deal on grounds of perceived surrender of sovereignty and the inability of NI to leave fully - given that it still falls foul of those purity tests. Or maybe not - perhaps those objections are essentially driven by the spin machine that Johnson now owns, and BXP won’t be able to get the airtime any more.

    Incidentally, this whole thing about Boris not asking for an extension: it does seem that you’re saying that he hasn’t complied with the Benn Act, which may become a bit problematic when the Scottish court reconvenes. Would your preference be for him to be found in contempt for not complying, or to not be found in contempt because the court is of the view that he did in fact comply by sending a letter seeking an extension?
    There won't, as as long as GB leaves the EU, the single market and customs union most Leavers don't care if the backstop stays for Northern Ireland even if the DUP do.

    The court can say what it wants, Boris has already won the political war as the polling shows as Leavers still back him and by next week it will be irrelevant anyway as the EU will already have decided the new extension date whether Macron vetoes a longer extension or not
    You haven't answered the question.
    HYUFD never does. He just posts something else in response.
    I would still have liked to know his reasons for disregarding a court of law.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,610
    Latest BXP Email to those who enrolled below. From Farage himself:

    "After more than three years of delays and parliamentary games there is a powerful sense of wanting to ‘just get Brexit done’. Feelings of Brexit fatigue have led some Leavers to welcome Boris Johnson’s deal as the best we are likely to get.

    That is understandable. But it is a mistake. The Prime Minister’s deal is not a proper Brexit. It is far removed from what 17.4m of us voted for in 2016.

    I can only suppose that pro-Brexit MPs backing the deal have not actually read the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) and the important Political Declaration (PD) that goes with it. These make up a new European Treaty that reheats 95 per cent of Theresa May’s deal. "
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662
    The trouble with this market is that we don't know when the election will be. You could be tying your money in for a long time and you might find the election circumstances are very different. For example, a messy much-amended Brexit deal that is ultimately pulled by Boris might result in a lot more BXP seats than 4.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,709
    Stocky said:

    Latest BXP Email to those who enrolled below. From Farage himself:

    "After more than three years of delays and parliamentary games there is a powerful sense of wanting to ‘just get Brexit done’. Feelings of Brexit fatigue have led some Leavers to welcome Boris Johnson’s deal as the best we are likely to get.

    That is understandable. But it is a mistake. The Prime Minister’s deal is not a proper Brexit. It is far removed from what 17.4m of us voted for in 2016.

    I can only suppose that pro-Brexit MPs backing the deal have not actually read the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) and the important Political Declaration (PD) that goes with it. These make up a new European Treaty that reheats 95 per cent of Theresa May’s deal. "

    Colour me shocked, no Brexit will ever be good enough for Farage.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,610
    edited October 2019
    "HYUFD never does. He just posts something else in response."

    Would make a good politician.

    Maybe he/she IS a politician??
  • Whatever,
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    The Tories bear a high share of responsibility for the present impasse which owes a lot to their decision to choose such a compulsive liar as their leader. Few trust him.

    As opposed to Labour who have chosen the most untrustworthy and unpopular leader of the opposition since the War
    Regardless of his lack of popularity, Corbyn is not viewed as a compulsive liar - not even by his opponents.
    Corbyn is viewed as anti Semitic and untrustworthy by his opponents, as well as incompetent
    Johnson has a compulsive aversion to telling the truth and is rarely believed - even by many in his own party.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    The Tories bear a high share of responsibility for the present impasse which owes a lot to their decision to choose such a compulsive liar as their leader. Few trust him.

    As opposed to Labour who have chosen the most untrustworthy and unpopular leader of the opposition since the War
    Regardless of his lack of popularity, Corbyn is not viewed as a compulsive liar - not even by his opponents.
    Only every time he says he desperately wants an election - or is doing everything he can to avoid a no deal - or will do everything he can to get rid of this terrible Tory government.... Oh!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,916
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    The Tories bear a high share of responsibility for the present impasse which owes a lot to their decision to choose such a compulsive liar as their leader. Few trust him.

    As opposed to Labour who have chosen the most untrustworthy and unpopular leader of the opposition since the War
    Regardless of his lack of popularity, Corbyn is not viewed as a compulsive liar - not even by his opponents.
    Corbyn is viewed as anti Semitic and untrustworthy by his opponents, as well as incompetent
    Johnson has a compulsive aversion to telling the truth and is rarely believed - even by many in his own party.
    Corbyn is viewed as anti Semitic and untrustworthy and incompetent even by most Labour MPs
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,938

    timmo said:

    Surely the big sell is UKIP at 0.25...

    UKIP under 100,000 votes must be a near certainty. I cant see them standing in more than 100 seats at most and will get under 1000 in most if not all of them
    It's is surely going to be far fewer than 100. Given that they will likely lose their deposits in all seats where they stand, that is a lot of cash to spaff up a wall on a vanity project.

    Brexit Party deposits saved will be an interesting market....
  • I'll sell SNP at 47 at a quid a seat if any of you boasty Separatists want to Buy at that level with me.

    You've changed your tune, you were suggesting the SNP might go below their current 35 a few weeks ago.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,873
    edited October 2019
    Carnyx said:

    kjh said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Polruan said:

    HYUFD said:

    After the May Deal and May extended the Brexit Party were polling about 20 to 25%+ and could have got 50 to 100 seats if not more.

    With Boris and the Boris Deal though which more Leavers support than the May Deal and the refusal of Boris to ask for an extension himself, the Brexit Party are now polling at UKIP 2015 levels ie about 11% and unlikely to get more than the 1 seat UKIP got then

    Presumably the risk to the Tories here is that once the Johnson deal becomes better understood there will be a move back towards BXP by those who rejected the May deal on grounds of perceived surrender of sovereignty and the inability of NI to leave fully - given that it still falls foul of those purity tests. Or maybe not - perhaps those objections are essentially driven by the spin machine that Johnson now owns, and BXP won’t be able to get the airtime any more.

    Incidentally, this whole thing about Boris not asking for an extension: it does seem that you’re saying that he hasn’t complied with the Benn Act, which may become a bit problematic when the Scottish court reconvenes. Would your preference be for him to be found in contempt for not complying, or to not be found in contempt because the court is of the view that he did in fact comply by sending a letter seeking an extension?
    There won't, as as long as GB leaves the EU, the single market and customs union most Leavers don't care if the backstop stays for Northern Ireland even if the DUP do.

    The court can say what it wants, Boris has already won the political war as the polling shows as Leavers still back him and by next week it will be irrelevant anyway as the EU will already have decided the new extension date whether Macron vetoes a longer extension or not
    You haven't answered the question.
    HYUFD never does. He just posts something else in response.
    I would still have liked to know his reasons for disregarding a court of law.
    I would as well. I don't know whether you noticed but I actually 'liked' the question as I thought it a good point.

    However HYFUD either, deliberately, or because he doesn't understand, does not do this. A while ago when IanB2 was frustrated by this I converted the conversation into mathematical logic connotation so as to show it was irrational and posted it.

    HYFUD took it that I was criticising his style, which I do, but not in this case. He has a complete inability to argue a point. As I said that might be deliberate to wind people up, or he may just have not even the basic understanding of logic.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    HYUFD said:

    Polruan said:

    HYUFD said:

    After the May Dealn

    Presumably the risk to the Tories here is that once the Johnson deal becomes better understood there will be a move back towards BXP by those who rejected the May deal on grounds of perceived surrender of sovereignty and the inability of NI to leave fully - given that it still falls foul of those purity tests. Or maybe not - perhaps those objections are essentially driven by the spin machine that Johnson now owns, and BXP won’t be able to get the airtime any more.

    Incidentally, this whole thing about Boris not asking for an extension: it does seem that you’re saying that he hasn’t complied with the Benn Act, which may become a bit problematic when the Scottish court reconvenes. Would your preference be for him to be found in contempt for not complying, or to not be found in contempt because the court is of the view that he did in fact comply by sending a letter seeking an extension?
    There won't, as as long as GB leaves the EU, the single market and customs union most Leavers don't care if the backstop stays for Northern Ireland even if the DUP do.

    The court can say what it wants, Boris has already won the political war as the polling shows as Leavers still back him and by next week it will be irrelevant anyway as the EU will already have decided the new extension date whether Macron vetoes a longer extension or not
    Not sure on your first point - it will be interesting to see who wins the spin war. Farage seems to be getting surprisingly less airtime on BBC suddenly (that’s perception, not data and I might be wrong) which suggests that BXP will struggle to drive the narrative as they did pre-Boris.

    My gut feeling is that a court holding him in contempt would be a little bit challenging. And he wouldn’t be well advised to claim he didn’t do the thing which a court said he did in clearing him. Perhaps your view of the importance of objective fact is a bit more up to date than mine though.
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    The Tories bear a high share of responsibility for the present impasse which owes a lot to their decision to choose such a compulsive liar as their leader. Few trust him.

    As opposed to Labour who have chosen the most untrustworthy and unpopular leader of the opposition since the War
    Regardless of his lack of popularity, Corbyn is not viewed as a compulsive liar - not even by his opponents.
    Corbyn is viewed as anti Semitic and untrustworthy by his opponents, as well as incompetent
    On balance, wouldn’t the incompetence be seen as a plus in the context of the other two characteristics?
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819

    timmo said:

    Surely the big sell is UKIP at 0.25...

    You underestimate Dick Braine at your peril.

    UKIP leader suspended over data theft allegations
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50125853
    He's been shafted by his party
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,414
    justin124 said:

    The Tories bear a high share of responsibility for the present impasse which owes a lot to their decision to choose such a compulsive liar as their leader. Few trust him.

    The Tories are 100% responsible for the whole Brexit shitshow - Cameron, May and Johnson - what have we done to deserve this?
  • I'll sell SNP at 47 at a quid a seat if any of you boasty Separatists want to Buy at that level with me.

    You've changed your tune, you were suggesting the SNP might go below their current 35 a few weeks ago.
    Yes and we tried to agree terms, but like the UK and EU we were unable to (you needed me to travel to Glasgow ffs if I lost)

    Post by cheque is my terms (I know terribly old fashioned)
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469

    timmo said:

    A sound bet, with the proviso that @SirNorfolkPassmore has already pointed out. In fact, betting that UKIP get less than a quarter of a seat is probably even safer!

    Otherwise I don't immediately see any compelling trades at these prices. Maybe a buy of the LibDems at 48?

    If you want to do that SKy bets line is Lib dems over 40.5 at 5/6 which I think is cracking
    I've just noticed Ladbrokes have the line at 37.5.
    Tks
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,036
    "We are not seeing much of Nigel Farage who appears to be keeping a low profile at the moment. He’s opposed to the deal which has not endeared him to many of the party’s followers."

    This goes to show how much of politics is down to sentiment. The Brexit Party was a child of May's WA. Boris's WA is almost identical and yet a lot of Hard Brexiters are inclined to side with Boris.

    Farage is right - he's the one who's being consistent - but people don't think or act consistently.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,284
    edited October 2019

    I'll sell SNP at 47 at a quid a seat if any of you boasty Separatists want to Buy at that level with me.

    You've changed your tune, you were suggesting the SNP might go below their current 35 a few weeks ago.
    Yes and we tried to agree terms, but like the UK and EU we were unable to (you needed me to travel to Glasgow ffs if I lost)

    Post by cheque is my terms (I know terribly old fashioned)
    I'll be chuffed if the SNP get 47+ seats so it's a no deal for me, thanks anyway.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,003
    It looks a good value wager, with the proviso that the gearing has the potential to be brutal in the other direction.
    It is possible (even if exceedingly unlikely) that some unforeseen set of circumstances sees a significant number of Tory voters decide they have to vote Brexit, and you lose many times your stake.
    So understand the risk before committing; it its not like putting your money in the bank...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,938

    justin124 said:

    The Tories bear a high share of responsibility for the present impasse which owes a lot to their decision to choose such a compulsive liar as their leader. Few trust him.

    The Tories are 100% responsible for the whole Brexit shitshow - Cameron, May and Johnson - what have we done to deserve this?
    Well, start with "you didn't get off your arses and make a believable case for the EU's merits with the voters".....
  • I'll sell SNP at 47 at a quid a seat if any of you boasty Separatists want to Buy at that level with me.

    You've changed your tune, you were suggesting the SNP might go below their current 35 a few weeks ago.
    Yes and we tried to agree terms, but like the UK and EU we were unable to (you needed me to travel to Glasgow ffs if I lost)

    Post by cheque is my terms (I know terribly old fashioned)
    I'll be chuffed if the SNP get 47+ seats, so it's a no deal for me.
    LOL - chicken like Corbyn (or wisely avoiding spreadbetting)
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,873

    justin124 said:

    The Tories bear a high share of responsibility for the present impasse which owes a lot to their decision to choose such a compulsive liar as their leader. Few trust him.

    The Tories are 100% responsible for the whole Brexit shitshow - Cameron, May and Johnson - what have we done to deserve this?
    Agree but I think Corbyn deserves a bit of blame for not turning up for the referendum.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,538
    edited October 2019
    kjh said:

    justin124 said:

    The Tories bear a high share of responsibility for the present impasse which owes a lot to their decision to choose such a compulsive liar as their leader. Few trust him.

    The Tories are 100% responsible for the whole Brexit shitshow - Cameron, May and Johnson - what have we done to deserve this?
    Agree but I think Corbyn deserves a bit of blame for not turning up for the referendum.
    A bit? That was decisive.

    In fact it was worse than not turning up, he (or more probably Seumas Milne) actively and repeatedly sabotaged the Labour side of the Remain campaign, as extensively document in Tim Shipman's book.
  • I expect you are pretty much nailed on for 400% of your wager being your profit on this one Mike! Good bet.

    If it was a line bet and not a spread bet I'd lay BXP at 0.5
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,873

    kjh said:

    justin124 said:

    The Tories bear a high share of responsibility for the present impasse which owes a lot to their decision to choose such a compulsive liar as their leader. Few trust him.

    The Tories are 100% responsible for the whole Brexit shitshow - Cameron, May and Johnson - what have we done to deserve this?
    Agree but I think Corbyn deserves a bit of blame for not turning up for the referendum.
    A bit? That was decisive.

    In fact it was worse than not turning up, he (or more probably Seumas Milne) actively and repeatedly sabotaged the Labour side of the Remain campaign, as extensively document in Tim Shipman's book.
    I was feeling kind.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,003

    kjh said:

    justin124 said:

    The Tories bear a high share of responsibility for the present impasse which owes a lot to their decision to choose such a compulsive liar as their leader. Few trust him.

    The Tories are 100% responsible for the whole Brexit shitshow - Cameron, May and Johnson - what have we done to deserve this?
    Agree but I think Corbyn deserves a bit of blame for not turning up for the referendum.
    A bit? That was decisive.

    In fact it was worse than not turning up, he (or more probably Seumas Milne) actively and repeatedly sabotaged the Labour side of the Remain campaign, as extensively document in Tim Shipman's book.
    It was the decisive bit.
  • I'll sell SNP at 47 at a quid a seat if any of you boasty Separatists want to Buy at that level with me.

    You've changed your tune, you were suggesting the SNP might go below their current 35 a few weeks ago.
    Yes and we tried to agree terms, but like the UK and EU we were unable to (you needed me to travel to Glasgow ffs if I lost)

    Post by cheque is my terms (I know terribly old fashioned)
    I'll be chuffed if the SNP get 47+ seats, so it's a no deal for me.
    LOL - chicken like Corbyn (or wisely avoiding spreadbetting)
    If want to sell at 35 (your recent benchmark) I'll take it, mon petit poulet.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,938

    kjh said:

    justin124 said:

    The Tories bear a high share of responsibility for the present impasse which owes a lot to their decision to choose such a compulsive liar as their leader. Few trust him.

    The Tories are 100% responsible for the whole Brexit shitshow - Cameron, May and Johnson - what have we done to deserve this?
    Agree but I think Corbyn deserves a bit of blame for not turning up for the referendum.
    A bit? That was decisive.

    In fact it was worse than not turning up, he (or more probably Seumas Milne) actively and repeatedly sabotaged the Labour side of the Remain campaign, as extensively document in Tim Shipman's book.
    Labour Leave had the best campaign of the Refrendum. Not hard to believe Jeremy was quietly cheering them on....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,003
    In other markets, Vettel looks good value at 7 on Betfair to win the Mexican GP.
    The disparity with favourite Leclerc at 2.8 looks much too wide.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,609
    Selling Brexit party probably + EV, but it's a hell of a downside risk in case they suddenly do really well!

    I think I'd want to know when the next election is for certain before betting.
  • justin124 said:

    The Tories bear a high share of responsibility for the present impasse which owes a lot to their decision to choose such a compulsive liar as their leader. Few trust him.

    The "we don't trust Boris" line is bullshit. Labour would find a reason not to trust St. Teresa of Calcutta if that stopped them getting their arses handed to them in an election.
    Are we going to have 2.5 more years of Labour hiding away from the voters?

    If so lay Labour on the spreads. There
  • I'll sell SNP at 47 at a quid a seat if any of you boasty Separatists want to Buy at that level with me.

    You've changed your tune, you were suggesting the SNP might go below their current 35 a few weeks ago.
    Yes and we tried to agree terms, but like the UK and EU we were unable to (you needed me to travel to Glasgow ffs if I lost)

    Post by cheque is my terms (I know terribly old fashioned)
    I'll be chuffed if the SNP get 47+ seats, so it's a no deal for me.
    LOL - chicken like Corbyn (or wisely avoiding spreadbetting)
    If want to sell at 35 (your recent benchmark) I'll take it, mon petit poulet.
    I'm not spreadbetting at 35 - in fact since I'm all about the profit I try not to remember that incident.

    You and your stupid terms - you'd have been most likely a tenner up come election night.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Spread betting is the most dangerous betting form...
    Had my backside handed to me on a couple of occasions especially in 2015 when I was all over Lib Dem seats at 33 in 100 a seat...we all know where that settled.
    Worse time though was on cricket in the early nineties(it was the night Fred West died)
    Eng vs Aus out there. Overnight England were 170 odd for seven. In all the other tests our tail had been skittled.
    Sold England runs at 214..cut out at 308 in 40 a run..learnt a big lesson
  • Dadge said:

    "We are not seeing much of Nigel Farage who appears to be keeping a low profile at the moment. He’s opposed to the deal which has not endeared him to many of the party’s followers."

    This goes to show how much of politics is down to sentiment. The Brexit Party was a child of May's WA. Boris's WA is almost identical and yet a lot of Hard Brexiters are inclined to side with Boris.

    Farage is right - he's the one who's being consistent - but people don't think or act consistently.

    No you make two mistakes.

    Firstly Boris's WA has key differences to May's WA.

    Secondly May in March voluntarily voted to extend A50. Boris voted against extending A50 in both March and September. May was rightly not trusted to take us out as she would refuse to leave without a deal as her choosing to extend A50 demonstrated. Boris didn't choose to extend A50 he had no choice in the matter.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 1,447
    Dadge said:

    "We are not seeing much of Nigel Farage who appears to be keeping a low profile at the moment. He’s opposed to the deal which has not endeared him to many of the party’s followers."

    This goes to show how much of politics is down to sentiment. The Brexit Party was a child of May's WA. Boris's WA is almost identical and yet a lot of Hard Brexiters are inclined to side with Boris.

    Farage is right - he's the one who's being consistent - but people don't think or act consistently.

    I wonder if the media relationship has changed, though. The media have their posh fake populist in Johnson, now, so what need is there to put Farage on the telly? I've noticed his absence recently, and wonder how much of that is his own choice or the choice of producers and staffers. After the article earlier in the week by Peter Oborne, I see no reason why Farage's dimming star is not being caused by the same sort of relationships.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,938
    timmo said:

    Spread betting is the most dangerous betting form...
    Had my backside handed to me on a couple of occasions especially in 2015 when I was all over Lib Dem seats at 33 in 100 a seat...we all know where that settled.

    I was telling you - from the SW front line!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 27,914
    edited October 2019
    kjh said:

    Carnyx said:

    kjh said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    [snip]

    There won't, as as long as GB leaves the EU, the single market and customs union most Leavers don't care if the backstop stays for Northern Ireland even if the DUP do.

    The court can say what it wants, Boris has already won the political war as the polling shows as Leavers still back him and by next week it will be irrelevant anyway as the EU will already have decided the new extension date whether Macron vetoes a longer extension or not

    You haven't answered the question.
    HYUFD never does. He just posts something else in response.
    I would still have liked to know his reasons for disregarding a court of law.
    I would as well. I don't know whether you noticed but I actually 'liked' the question as I thought it a good point.

    However HYFUD either, deliberately, or because he doesn't understand, does not do this. A while ago when IanB2 was frustrated by this I converted the conversation into mathematical logic connotation so as to show it was irrational and posted it.

    HYFUD took it that I was criticising his style, which I do, but not in this case. He has a complete inability to argue a point. As I said that might be deliberate to wind people up, or he may just have not even the basic understanding of logic.
    Can't see any 'like' but thanks anyway!

    The court case does seem to have been forgotten, perhaps because it is in Edinburgh and somehow not seen as proper law for freeborn Englishmen to worry about - judginf from some of the comments here and elsewhere at the time oft he original case. But it has real potential to explode given the chaotic nature of politics at the moment, and the very firm assurances given (twice, I think) by HMG's advocate.

    Given the general tone of the references byt Messrs Johnson, Rees-Mogg, et al to the Scots in recent days, I really do wonder what would happen in that situation.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,284
    edited October 2019
    Don't think he's quite thought through his own acquiescence in 'sexual harassment and assault allegations that have been deliberately sat upon by people on power'.

    https://twitter.com/JohnMannMP/status/1187490790764957696?s=20
    Stupid ****.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    TudorRose said:

    The trouble with this market is that we don't know when the election will be. You could be tying your money in for a long time and you might find the election circumstances are very different. For example, a messy much-amended Brexit deal that is ultimately pulled by Boris might result in a lot more BXP seats than 4.

    One thing to bear in mind is that for a new party FPTP is terribly difficult. You have no track record with which to convince the public you have a chance of winning. You have limited data to work out where your supporters are. It is very hard to convert votes to seats.

    The Alliance won 13 seats on 26.4% of the vote in 1983.

    Some of the circumstances are different and more favourable to the Brexit Party, but not all of them are.

    It's worth noting that the Leave vote is not as extremely concentrated as the Remain vote. Only 21 seats voted by more than 70% for Leave compared to 38 for Remain. I haven't looked in detail, but I suspect a number of otherwise promising targets are currently held by ERG stalwarts.

    I suspect that OGH's long experience with parties outside the big two failing to win seats in numbers to match the polling and hype is reassuring him that the downside risk on the bet is more modest then you might think.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    TudorRose said:

    The trouble with this market is that we don't know when the election will be. You could be tying your money in for a long time and you might find the election circumstances are very different. For example, a messy much-amended Brexit deal that is ultimately pulled by Boris might result in a lot more BXP seats than 4.

    One thing to bear in mind is that for a new party FPTP is terribly difficult. You have no track record with which to convince the public you have a chance of winning. You have limited data to work out where your supporters are. It is very hard to convert votes to seats.

    The Alliance won 13 seats on 26.4% of the vote in 1983.
    I thought the Alliance won 23 seats in 1983. The point you are making holds good, of course. But nobody wants to belittle the achievements of the Alliance. Farage`s company will not do that well.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,938

    Don't think he's quite thought through his own acquiescence in 'sexual harassment and assault allegations that have been deliberately sat upon by people on power'.

    https://twitter.com/JohnMannMP/status/1187490790764957696?s=20
    Stupid ****.

    Not that stupid if he still has Parliamentary privilege for his accusations.

    Might be a few MPs not seeking re-election?
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,210
    edited October 2019
    148grss said:

    Dadge said:

    "We are not seeing much of Nigel Farage who appears to be keeping a low profile at the moment. He’s opposed to the deal which has not endeared him to many of the party’s followers."

    This goes to show how much of politics is down to sentiment. The Brexit Party was a child of May's WA. Boris's WA is almost identical and yet a lot of Hard Brexiters are inclined to side with Boris.

    Farage is right - he's the one who's being consistent - but people don't think or act consistently.

    I wonder if the media relationship has changed, though. The media have their posh fake populist in Johnson, now, so what need is there to put Farage on the telly? I've noticed his absence recently, and wonder how much of that is his own choice or the choice of producers and staffers.
    I think this is key.

    The Lib Dems usually enjoy an uptick over the course of an election campaign because, thanks to election impartiality laws, people are reminded they exist. At other times the broadcasters generally ignore them.

    Historically no-one could accuse the BBC of ignoring Farage. But over the past few months he has indeed been more notable by his absence.

    If BXP are fielding a candidate in every constituency, then their status as winner of the most recent national poll (the Euros) should merit them considerable airtime.

    So I wouldn't bet on this one as it's simply too unpredictable. They will probably not reach four seats. But don't rule it out.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I’m not spread betting yet. Politics is way too volatile just now. When the election date is fixed I’ll reconsider.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,252
    I have compared these spread bets with my tactical model.

    My predictions are all within the spread except for Con and Lab. I'd sell Con at 317 and buy Lab at 213. (I'm not going to because of the risks in this type of bet).
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Don't think he's quite thought through his own acquiescence in 'sexual harassment and assault allegations that have been deliberately sat upon by people on power'.

    https://twitter.com/JohnMannMP/status/1187490790764957696?s=20
    Stupid ****.

    Not that stupid if he still has Parliamentary privilege for his accusations.

    Might be a few MPs not seeking re-election?
    I thought Parliamentary privilege only applies to statements made in the chamber. Subsequent dissemination in print / writing would be covered, but if he just writes letters without first making the allegations in the Commons he wouldn't be.
  • Barnesian said:

    I have compared these spread bets with my tactical model.

    My predictions are all within the spread except for Con and Lab. I'd sell Con at 317 and buy Lab at 213. (I'm not going to because of the risks in this type of bet).

    Sounds like quite a model you've got there...
  • What's remarkable is how unremarkable the Labour Spread is. Sell at 205 or Buy at 213 ... who could have imagined that after the 2017 election?

    That ought to be the best Buy since Apple stock in the nineties but I don't think anyone is saying it is?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 46,938
    rpjs said:

    Don't think he's quite thought through his own acquiescence in 'sexual harassment and assault allegations that have been deliberately sat upon by people on power'.

    https://twitter.com/JohnMannMP/status/1187490790764957696?s=20
    Stupid ****.

    Not that stupid if he still has Parliamentary privilege for his accusations.

    Might be a few MPs not seeking re-election?
    I thought Parliamentary privilege only applies to statements made in the chamber. Subsequent dissemination in print / writing would be covered, but if he just writes letters without first making the allegations in the Commons he wouldn't be.
    Well, there's no other business going on, so he might get a full day!
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,873

    148grss said:

    Dadge said:

    "We are not seeing much of Nigel Farage who appears to be keeping a low profile at the moment. He’s opposed to the deal which has not endeared him to many of the party’s followers."

    This goes to show how much of politics is down to sentiment. The Brexit Party was a child of May's WA. Boris's WA is almost identical and yet a lot of Hard Brexiters are inclined to side with Boris.

    Farage is right - he's the one who's being consistent - but people don't think or act consistently.

    I wonder if the media relationship has changed, though. The media have their posh fake populist in Johnson, now, so what need is there to put Farage on the telly? I've noticed his absence recently, and wonder how much of that is his own choice or the choice of producers and staffers.
    I think this is key.

    The Lib Dems usually enjoy an uptick over the course of an election campaign because, thanks to election impartiality laws, people are reminded they exist. At other times the broadcasters generally ignore them.

    Historically no-one could accuse the BBC of ignoring Farage. But over the past few months he has indeed been more notable by his absence.

    If BXP are fielding a candidate in every constituency, then their status as winner of the most recent national poll (the Euros) should merit them considerable airtime.

    So I wouldn't bet on this one as it's simply too unpredictable. They will probably not reach four seats. But don't rule it out.
    I must admit I have noticed his and their absence and I am surprised but I guess it is due to the Johnson show taking up the airtime.
  • Nigelb said:

    In other markets, Vettel looks good value at 7 on Betfair to win the Mexican GP.
    The disparity with favourite Leclerc at 2.8 looks much too wide.

    Had a perusal. Layed Bottas
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,934
    Pulpstar said:

    Stocky said:

    Latest BXP Email to those who enrolled below. From Farage himself:

    "After more than three years of delays and parliamentary games there is a powerful sense of wanting to ‘just get Brexit done’. Feelings of Brexit fatigue have led some Leavers to welcome Boris Johnson’s deal as the best we are likely to get.

    That is understandable. But it is a mistake. The Prime Minister’s deal is not a proper Brexit. It is far removed from what 17.4m of us voted for in 2016.

    I can only suppose that pro-Brexit MPs backing the deal have not actually read the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) and the important Political Declaration (PD) that goes with it. These make up a new European Treaty that reheats 95 per cent of Theresa May’s deal. "

    Colour me shocked, no Brexit will ever be good enough for Farage.
    I think he's trying to end up in the same political space as Le Pen and Salvini, and distance himself from Brexit and the idea of leaving the EU.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,984
    edited October 2019
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/seatsixtyone/status/1187696722849476608

    Quite distasteful
  • Pulpstar said:

    Stocky said:

    Latest BXP Email to those who enrolled below. From Farage himself:

    "After more than three years of delays and parliamentary games there is a powerful sense of wanting to ‘just get Brexit done’. Feelings of Brexit fatigue have led some Leavers to welcome Boris Johnson’s deal as the best we are likely to get.

    That is understandable. But it is a mistake. The Prime Minister’s deal is not a proper Brexit. It is far removed from what 17.4m of us voted for in 2016.

    I can only suppose that pro-Brexit MPs backing the deal have not actually read the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) and the important Political Declaration (PD) that goes with it. These make up a new European Treaty that reheats 95 per cent of Theresa May’s deal. "

    Colour me shocked, no Brexit will ever be good enough for Farage.
    I think he's trying to end up in the same political space as Le Pen and Salvini, and distance himself from Brexit and the idea of leaving the EU.
    First past the post kills off that space.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,749

    justin124 said:

    The Tories bear a high share of responsibility for the present impasse which owes a lot to their decision to choose such a compulsive liar as their leader. Few trust him.

    The "we don't trust Boris" line is bullshit. Labour would find a reason not to trust St. Teresa of Calcutta if that stopped them getting their arses handed to them in an election.
    Half the Tory party don't trust Bozo let alone the opposition. Roll up all those that bought the "do or die by Oct 31" line or the "lying in front of a bulldozer to stop the Heathrow expansion" line

    Labour will probably get whacked at the next GE but it certainly won't be down to the genius of Bozo, replace Corbyn with Hilary Benn and Bozo's toast.

  • CatManCatMan Posts: 1,811
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/seatsixtyone/status/1187696722849476608

    Quite distasteful
    Snowflake ;)
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,187
    The EU should go for a long extension, to April 2023 or some such.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    PClipp said:

    TudorRose said:

    The trouble with this market is that we don't know when the election will be. You could be tying your money in for a long time and you might find the election circumstances are very different. For example, a messy much-amended Brexit deal that is ultimately pulled by Boris might result in a lot more BXP seats than 4.

    One thing to bear in mind is that for a new party FPTP is terribly difficult. You have no track record with which to convince the public you have a chance of winning. You have limited data to work out where your supporters are. It is very hard to convert votes to seats.

    The Alliance won 13 seats on 26.4% of the vote in 1983.
    I thought the Alliance won 23 seats in 1983. The point you are making holds good, of course. But nobody wants to belittle the achievements of the Alliance. Farage`s company will not do that well.
    I managed not to realise that I was looking at the Wiki page for the results of the UK general election in England. Ooops. You are completely right.
This discussion has been closed.