Life is strange I have just had to take my last dog to be put to sleep, I took my wife with me so that maybe , just maybe, she will remember why and when, but it’s a sad moment and although life will now be easier there will be a gap.
You have my condolences. It is a wretched thing to go through.
I suspect that the SW seats - other than St Ives - are unlikely. I also don't know how realistic Ceridigion is as a prospect.
Eastbourne will be held by the independent.
North Norfolk loses its incumbent, and was Leave voting so that may not be an easy hold.
Richmond Park will be an easy LibDem gain. Sheffield Hallam will, I suspect, fall to the LDs. Other likely gains are St Ives, Cheltenham and St Albans. Beyond there is gets a bit difficult for the LDs.
Not persuaded re- St Albans - though agree about the others.Fife NE is likely surely.
It was an England and Wales list. But yes, I agree that Fife NE is a likely gain, because Unionist tactical voting will kick in.
The LDs did an incredible job with Daisy Cooper in St Albans in 2017. The LDs leapfrogged Labour in an election where they were being squeezed hard.
She's continued to work the seat incredibly hard in the interim, and the LibDems did really well in the local elections there earlier this year, getting 50% more votes than the Conservatives.
There are no "gimmies", but I would have thought that's a seat where Labour will get squeezed, where (in most seats) it will be the LDs that suffer.
I do believe there will be a few left field seats where the LDs come from nowhere and win..that will be the fun of the night.
I think the LibDems might be in for a rude awkening - discovering that Jo Swinson is not anywhere near as popular as they think......
I suspect that the SW seats - other than St Ives - are unlikely. I also don't know how realistic Ceridigion is as a prospect.
Eastbourne will be held by the independent.
North Norfolk loses its incumbent, and was Leave voting so that may not be an easy hold.
Richmond Park will be an easy LibDem gain. Sheffield Hallam will, I suspect, fall to the LDs. Other likely gains are St Ives, Cheltenham and St Albans. Beyond there is gets a bit difficult for the LDs.
Not persuaded re- St Albans - though agree about the others.Fife NE is likely surely.
It was an England and Wales list. But yes, I agree that Fife NE is a likely gain, because Unionist tactical voting will kick in.
The LDs did an incredible job with Daisy Cooper in St Albans in 2017. The LDs leapfrogged Labour in an election where they were being squeezed hard.
She's continued to work the seat incredibly hard in the interim, and the LibDems did really well in the local elections there earlier this year, getting 50% more votes than the Conservatives.
There are no "gimmies", but I would have thought that's a seat where Labour will get squeezed, where (in most seats) it will be the LDs that suffer.
I do believe there will be a few left field seats where the LDs come from nowhere and win..that will be the fun of the night.
I think the LibDems might be in for a rude awkening - discovering that Jo Swinson is not anywhere near as popular as they think......
Apropos of nothing except today is St Crispin's day and this is a wonderful bit of Shakespeare.
"We few, we happy few, we band of brothers; For he to-day that sheds his blood with me Shall be my brother; be he ne'er so vile, This day shall gentle his condition; And gentlemen in England now a-bed Shall think themselves accurs'd they were not here, And hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks That fought with us upon Saint Crispin's day."
So how is the PB Band of Brothers this wet St Crispin's evening?
Due to some bad occurrences, many trains are considerably disrupted. However I am reasonably familiar with the network and, thanks to WiFi and www.realtimetrains.co.uk I managed to plot a plan B without bothering the flustered staff and will now still arrive tonight, albeit 90 minutes late. Since in previous disasters I have had to go find a taxi driver and give him the thick end of £100, I am paradoxically feeling quite smug.
If it rains on St Crispins do we get lineker for forty days and forty nights? With rumbles of Mariah Carey?
It rained on Brexit day. I was in London for a conference. All the trains were disrupted. Cashpoint. Mr Taxi Driver was very pleased. 9:30pm I was in front of telly with stinky cheese and nibbles. Seven hours later I was 2.5k up and hurling - not the result, the cheese was a bit too stinky. Eee, those were the days...
That was a canny post HY. Just one picture of the bananaman was all it needed to put Oms crazy thoughts to bed and tucked in with the light out.
We need this man!
I'd love to see him listed in the 3:30 at Haydock Park!
As usual I'd assess his form. I have to say I've found myself laying rather than backing him when he's been listed, but I almost find myself a greater fan for that very reason.
Are you serious?
Or have I stumbled in halfway through some bizarre alternative comedy night?
I'm serious as to needing him in betting markets where I can simply lay him to be next pope or whatever.
So far as I can imagine he's no chance of having any importance in British politics in the future.
According to BF though he has 2.5% chance of being the next Labour leader.
As a judgement as to the man, David Milliband is ok though, I've nothing against him.
Nothing against him? You sure?
What about the haircut. He’s never sorted it out.
Well in that he and I share something. A certain blokeishness from actually just not caring - at least that's the way I justify my own barnet shortcomings.
I'm 100% sure I have not even the slightest animosity to David Milliband. (Other than the usual big boss of humanitarian stuff doing well when people are starving thing. which is horrible but inevitable)
I suspect that the SW seats - other than St Ives - are unlikely. I also don't know how realistic Ceridigion is as a prospect.
Eastbourne will be held by the independent.
North Norfolk loses its incumbent, and was Leave voting so that may not be an easy hold.
Richmond Park will be an easy LibDem gain. Sheffield Hallam will, I suspect, fall to the LDs. Other likely gains are St Ives, Cheltenham and St Albans. Beyond there is gets a bit difficult for the LDs.
Not persuaded re- St Albans - though agree about the others.Fife NE is likely surely.
It was an England and Wales list. But yes, I agree that Fife NE is a likely gain, because Unionist tactical voting will kick in.
The LDs did an incredible job with Daisy Cooper in St Albans in 2017. The LDs leapfrogged Labour in an election where they were being squeezed hard.
She's continued to work the seat incredibly hard in the interim, and the LibDems did really well in the local elections there earlier this year, getting 50% more votes than the Conservatives.
There are no "gimmies", but I would have thought that's a seat where Labour will get squeezed, where (in most seats) it will be the LDs that suffer.
I do believe there will be a few left field seats where the LDs come from nowhere and win..that will be the fun of the night.
I think the LibDems might be in for a rude awkening - discovering that Jo Swinson is not anywhere near as popular as they think......
I suspect that the SW seats - other than St Ives - are unlikely. I also don't know how realistic Ceridigion is as a prospect.
Eastbourne will be held by the independent.
North Norfolk loses its incumbent, and was Leave voting so that may not be an easy hold.
Richmond Park will be an easy LibDem gain. Sheffield Hallam will, I suspect, fall to the LDs. Other likely gains are St Ives, Cheltenham and St Albans. Beyond there is gets a bit difficult for the LDs.
Not persuaded re- St Albans - though agree about the others.Fife NE is likely surely.
It was an England and Wales list. But yes, I agree that Fife NE is a likely gain, because Unionist tactical voting will kick in.
The LDs did an incredible job with Daisy Cooper in St Albans in 2017. The LDs leapfrogged Labour in an election where they were being squeezed hard.
She's continued to work the seat incredibly hard in the interim, and the LibDems did really well in the local elections there earlier this year, getting 50% more votes than the Conservatives.
There are no "gimmies", but I would have thought that's a seat where Labour will get squeezed, where (in most seats) it will be the LDs that suffer.
I do believe there will be a few left field seats where the LDs come from nowhere and win..that will be the fun of the night.
I think the LibDems might be in for a rude awkening - discovering that Jo Swinson is not anywhere near as popular as they think......
I suspect that the SW seats - other than St Ives - are unlikely. I also don't know how realistic Ceridigion is as a prospect.
Eastbourne will be held by the independent.
North Norfolk loses its incumbent, and was Leave voting so that may not be an easy hold.
Richmond Park will be an easy LibDem gain. Sheffield Hallam will, I suspect, fall to the LDs. Other likely gains are St Ives, Cheltenham and St Albans. Beyond there is gets a bit difficult for the LDs.
Not persuaded re- St Albans - though agree about the others.Fife NE is likely surely.
It was an England and Wales list. But yes, I agree that Fife NE is a likely gain, because Unionist tactical voting will kick in.
The LDs did an incredible job with Daisy Cooper in St Albans in 2017. The LDs leapfrogged Labour in an election where they were being squeezed hard.
She's continued to work the seat incredibly hard in the interim, and the LibDems did really well in the local elections there earlier this year, getting 50% more votes than the Conservatives.
There are no "gimmies", but I would have thought that's a seat where Labour will get squeezed, where (in most seats) it will be the LDs that suffer.
I do believe there will be a few left field seats where the LDs come from nowhere and win..that will be the fun of the night.
I think the LibDems might be in for a rude awkening - discovering that Jo Swinson is not anywhere near as popular as they think......
I suspect that the SW seats - other than St Ives - are unlikely. I also don't know how realistic Ceridigion is as a prospect.
Eastbourne will be held by the independent.
North Norfolk loses its incumbent, and was Leave voting so that may not be an easy hold.
Richmond Park will be an easy LibDem gain. Sheffield Hallam will, I suspect, fall to the LDs. Other likely gains are St Ives, Cheltenham and St Albans. Beyond there is gets a bit difficult for the LDs.
Not persuaded re- St Albans - though agree about the others.Fife NE is likely surely.
It was an England and Wales list. But yes, I agree that Fife NE is a likely gain, because Unionist tactical voting will kick in.
The LDs did an incredible job with Daisy Cooper in St Albans in 2017. The LDs leapfrogged Labour in an election where they were being squeezed hard.
She's continued to work the seat incredibly hard in the interim, and the LibDems did really well in the local elections there earlier this year, getting 50% more votes than the Conservatives.
There are no "gimmies", but I would have thought that's a seat where Labour will get squeezed, where (in most seats) it will be the LDs that suffer.
I do believe there will be a few left field seats where the LDs come from nowhere and win..that will be the fun of the night.
I think the LibDems might be in for a rude awkening - discovering that Jo Swinson is not anywhere near as popular as they think......
(I've never even seen her speak. I suspect, though, that her resolute Remainery will resonate with around a fifth of voters next time around.)
What about the full on identity politics turning off soft Tories?
There will be someone in the LDs that can help her.
Her current style has some slight risk of being totally disastrous. She's not that daft and the collective wisdom of the LDs definitely isn't that daft.
Meanwhile the Tories have counted all the Barnsley chickens before they have hatched.
Not Barnsley. But places like Coventry and Wolverhampton could be fun.....
FWIW (which ain't much, I have all the predictive powers of Mystic Meg,) I don't fancy the chances of a Tory majority. I don't think that the total number of losses to the SNP (because there aren't that many Scottish Tories to begin with) and to the Lib Dems (because they're mostly working against hefty Tory majorities in non-Remainiac seats) will be huge, but gains from Labour still won't be sufficient to compensate.
I suspect that the cumulative effect of Labour's tribal loyalty vote, strong Leave but "never Tory" voters in Labour areas either sticking with Labour or spaffing their votes away on the Brexit Party, and an election campaign that gives Corbyn the opportunity to remind poorer electors that they'll get more handouts under a Labour Government, will be enough for Labour not to go too far backwards. For all of those reasons, I also think it's likely that the current opinion polls showing particularly awful Labour figures may be disguising a "shy Labour" vote.
I reckon that, even assuming that the Conservatives win back all the seats of the whipless rebels, they'll still need at least 20 gains from Labour to compensate for losses to the SNP and LDs, in order to reach 320 and a working majority of one. This is doable in theory - there are about thirty Lab-Con marginals that can fall on a swing of less than 3% - but I'm not so sure about their getting across the winning line in practice.
After the 2017 election, I feel very much once bitten, twice shy when it comes to predictions of disaster for the Labour Party (except in Scotland, where they've had their chips.)
Isn’t there always a case where despite a good game you also lose a few against the head?
Meanwhile the Tories have counted all the Barnsley chickens before they have hatched.
Not Barnsley. But places like Coventry and Wolverhampton could be fun.....
FWIW (which ain't much, I have all the predictive powers of Mystic Meg,) I don't fancy the chances of a Tory majority. I don't think that the total number of losses to the SNP (because there aren't that many Scottish Tories to begin with) and to the Lib Dems (because they're mostly working against hefty Tory majorities in non-Remainiac seats) will be huge, but gains from Labour still won't be sufficient to compensate.
I suspect that the cumulative effect of Labour's tribal loyalty vote, strong Leave but "never Tory" voters in Labour areas either sticking with Labour or spaffing their votes away on the Brexit Party, and an election campaign that gives Corbyn the opportunity to remind poorer electors that they'll get more handouts under a Labour Government, will be enough for Labour not to go too far backwards. For all of those reasons, I also think it's likely that the current opinion polls showing particularly awful Labour figures may be disguising a "shy Labour" vote.
I reckon that, even assuming that the Conservatives win back all the seats of the whipless rebels, they'll still need at least 20 gains from Labour to compensate for losses to the SNP and LDs, in order to reach 320 and a working majority of one. This is doable in theory - there are about thirty Lab-Con marginals that can fall on a swing of less than 3% - but I'm not so sure about their getting across the winning line in practice.
After the 2017 election, I feel very much once bitten, twice shy when it comes to predictions of disaster for the Labour Party (except in Scotland, where they've had their chips.)
Isn’t there always a case where despite a good game you also lose a few against the head?
Meanwhile the Tories have counted all the Barnsley chickens before they have hatched.
Not Barnsley. But places like Coventry and Wolverhampton could be fun.....
FWIW (which ain't much, I have all the predictive powers of Mystic Meg,) I don't fancy the chances of a Tory majority. I don't think that the total number of losses to the SNP (because there aren't that many Scottish Tories to begin with) and to the Lib Dems (because they're mostly working against hefty Tory majorities in non-Remainiac seats) will be huge, but gains from Labour still won't be sufficient to compensate.
I suspect that the cumulative effect of Labour's tribal loyalty vote, strong Leave but "never Tory" voters in Labour areas either sticking with Labour or spaffing their votes away on the Brexit Party, and an election campaign that gives Corbyn the opportunity to remind poorer electors that they'll get more handouts under a Labour Government, will be enough for Labour not to go too far backwards. For all of those reasons, I also think it's likely that the current opinion polls showing particularly awful Labour figures may be disguising a "shy Labour" vote.
I reckon that, even assuming that the Conservatives win back all the seats of the whipless rebels, they'll still need at least 20 gains from Labour to compensate for losses to the SNP and LDs, in order to reach 320 and a working majority of one. This is doable in theory - there are about thirty Lab-Con marginals that can fall on a swing of less than 3% - but I'm not so sure about their getting across the winning line in practice.
After the 2017 election, I feel very much once bitten, twice shy when it comes to predictions of disaster for the Labour Party (except in Scotland, where they've had their chips.)
Isn’t there always a case where despite a good game you also lose a few against the head?
Yes. Welcome to the world of probability and statistics.
I suspect that the SW seats - other than St Ives - are unlikely. I also don't know how realistic Ceridigion is as a prospect.
Eastbourne will be held by the independent.
North Norfolk loses its incumbent, and was Leave voting so that may not be an easy hold.
Richmond Park will be an easy LibDem gain. Sheffield Hallam will, I suspect, fall to the LDs. Other likely gains are St Ives, Cheltenham and St Albans. Beyond there is gets a bit difficult for the LDs.
Not persuaded re- St Albans - though agree about the others.Fife NE is likely surely.
It was an England and Wales list. But yes, I agree that Fife NE is a likely gain, because Unionist tactical voting will kick in.
The LDs did an incredible job with Daisy Cooper in St Albans in 2017. The LDs leapfrogged Labour in an election where they were being squeezed hard.
She's continued to work the seat incredibly hard in the interim, and the LibDems did really well in the local elections there earlier this year, getting 50% more votes than the Conservatives.
There are no "gimmies", but I would have thought that's a seat where Labour will get squeezed, where (in most seats) it will be the LDs that suffer.
I do believe there will be a few left field seats where the LDs come from nowhere and win..that will be the fun of the night.
I think the LibDems might be in for a rude awkening - discovering that Jo Swinson is not anywhere near as popular as they think......
(I've never even seen her speak. I suspect, though, that her resolute Remainery will resonate with around a fifth of voters next time around.)
What about the full on identity politics turning off soft Tories?
What do you see as the LD's "full on identity politics" ?
Jo Swinsons remark about the election being decided by a small bunch of old white men struck me as particularly gratuitous. For a politician seeking election, implying that you think one age/sex/colour combo is inherently wrong does put those people off from voting for you.
That was a canny post HY. Just one picture of the bananaman was all it needed to put Oms crazy thoughts to bed and tucked in with the light out.
We need this man!
I'd love to see him listed in the 3:30 at Haydock Park!
As usual I'd assess his form. I have to say I've found myself laying rather than backing him when he's been listed, but I almost find myself a greater fan for that very reason.
Are you serious?
Or have I stumbled in halfway through some bizarre alternative comedy night?
I'm serious as to needing him in betting markets where I can simply lay him to be next pope or whatever.
So far as I can imagine he's no chance of having any importance in British politics in the future.
According to BF though he has 2.5% chance of being the next Labour leader.
As a judgement as to the man, David Milliband is ok though, I've nothing against him.
Nothing against him? You sure?
What about the haircut. He’s never sorted it out.
Well in that he and I share something. A certain blokeishness from actually just not caring - at least that's the way I justify my own barnet shortcomings.
I'm 100% sure I have not even the slightest animosity to David Milliband. (Other than the usual big boss of humanitarian stuff doing well when people are starving thing. which is horrible but inevitable)
Meanwhile the Tories have counted all the Barnsley chickens before they have hatched.
Not Barnsley. But places like Coventry and Wolverhampton could be fun.....
FWIW (which ain't much, I have all the predictive powers of Mystic Meg,) I don't fancy the chances of a Tory majority. I don't think that the total number of losses to the SNP (because there aren't that many Scottish Tories to begin with) and to the Lib Dems (because they're mostly working against hefty Tory majorities in non-Remainiac seats) will be huge, but gains from Labour still won't be sufficient to compensate.
I suspect that the cumulative effect of Labour's tribal loyalty vote, strong Leave but "never Tory" voters in Labour areas either sticking with Labour or spaffing their votes away on the Brexit Party, and an election campaign that gives Corbyn the opportunity to remind poorer electors that they'll get more handouts under a Labour Government, will be enough for Labour not to go too far backwards. For all of those reasons, I also think it's likely that the current opinion polls showing particularly awful Labour figures may be disguising a "shy Labour" vote.
I reckon that, even assuming that the Conservatives win back all the seats of the whipless rebels, they'll still need at least 20 gains from Labour to compensate for losses to the SNP and LDs, in order to reach 320 and a working majority of one. This is doable in theory - there are about thirty Lab-Con marginals that can fall on a swing of less than 3% - but I'm not so sure about their getting across the winning line in practice.
After the 2017 election, I feel very much once bitten, twice shy when it comes to predictions of disaster for the Labour Party (except in Scotland, where they've had their chips.)
Isn’t there always a case where despite a good game you also lose a few against the head?
Those will be to the Lib Dems and SNP though.
I was thinking to Labour. Surely some metropolitansry remainery areas with Tory MP and Labour close behind. Or some previously labour for ever a Tories narrowly took last time.
I suspect that the SW seats - other than St Ives - are unlikely. I also don't know how realistic Ceridigion is as a prospect.
Eastbourne will be held by the independent.
North Norfolk loses its incumbent, and was Leave voting so that may not be an easy hold.
Richmond Park will be an easy LibDem gain. Sheffield Hallam will, I suspect, fall to the LDs. Other likely gains are St Ives, Cheltenham and St Albans. Beyond there is gets a bit difficult for the LDs.
Not persuaded re- St Albans - though agree about the others.Fife NE is likely surely.
It was an England and Wales list. But yes, I agree that Fife NE is a likely gain, because Unionist tactical voting will kick in.
The LDs did an incredible job with Daisy Cooper in St Albans in 2017. The LDs leapfrogged Labour in an election where they were being squeezed hard.
She's continued to work the seat incredibly hard in the interim, and the LibDems did really well in the local elections there earlier this year, getting 50% more votes than the Conservatives.
There are no "gimmies", but I would have thought that's a seat where Labour will get squeezed, where (in most seats) it will be the LDs that suffer.
I do believe there will be a few left field seats where the LDs come from nowhere and win..that will be the fun of the night.
I think that as well.
Meanwhile the Tories have counted all the Barnsley chickens before they have hatched.
That was a canny post HY. Just one picture of the bananaman was all it needed to put Oms crazy thoughts to bed and tucked in with the light out.
We need this man!
I'd love to see him listed in the 3:30 at Haydock Park!
As usual I'd assess his form. I have to say I've found myself laying rather than backing him when he's been listed, but I almost find myself a greater fan for that very reason.
Are you serious?
Or have I stumbled in halfway through some bizarre alternative comedy night?
I'm serious as to needing him in betting markets where I can simply lay him to be next pope or whatever.
So far as I can imagine he's no chance of having any importance in British politics in the future.
According to BF though he has 2.5% chance of being the next Labour leader.
As a judgement as to the man, David Milliband is ok though, I've nothing against him.
Nothing against him? You sure?
What about the haircut. He’s never sorted it out.
Well in that he and I share something. A certain blokeishness from actually just not caring - at least that's the way I justify my own barnet shortcomings.
I'm 100% sure I have not even the slightest animosity to David Milliband. (Other than the usual big boss of humanitarian stuff doing well when people are starving thing. which is horrible but inevitable)
When he had his chance he had no gravitas.
Whereas our current PM is just marinated in gravitas.
Apropos of nothing except today is St Crispin's day and this is a wonderful bit of Shakespeare.
"We few, we happy few, we band of brothers; For he to-day that sheds his blood with me Shall be my brother; be he ne'er so vile, This day shall gentle his condition; And gentlemen in England now a-bed Shall think themselves accurs'd they were not here, And hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks That fought with us upon Saint Crispin's day."
So how is the PB Band of Brothers this wet St Crispin's evening?
Due to some bad occurrences, many trains are considerably disrupted. However I am reasonably familiar with the network and, thanks to WiFi and www.realtimetrains.co.uk I managed to plot a plan B without bothering the flustered staff and will now still arrive tonight, albeit 90 minutes late. Since in previous disasters I have had to go find a taxi driver and give him the thick end of £100, I am paradoxically feeling quite smug.
If it rains on St Crispins do we get lineker for forty days and forty nights? With rumbles of Mariah Carey?
It rained on Brexit day.
Talk 'bout rain, oh, my Lord Didn't it, didn't it, didn't it, oh, my Lord? Didn't it rain?
That was a canny post HY. Just one picture of the bananaman was all it needed to put Oms crazy thoughts to bed and tucked in with the light out.
We need this man!
I'd love to see him listed in the 3:30 at Haydock Park!
As usual I'd assess his form. I have to say I've found myself laying rather than backing him when he's been listed, but I almost find myself a greater fan for that very reason.
Are you serious?
Or have I stumbled in halfway through some bizarre alternative comedy night?
I'm serious as to needing him in betting markets where I can simply lay him to be next pope or whatever.
So far as I can imagine he's no chance of having any importance in British politics in the future.
According to BF though he has 2.5% chance of being the next Labour leader.
As a judgement as to the man, David Milliband is ok though, I've nothing against him.
Nothing against him? You sure?
What about the haircut. He’s never sorted it out.
Well in that he and I share something. A certain blokeishness from actually just not caring - at least that's the way I justify my own barnet shortcomings.
I'm 100% sure I have not even the slightest animosity to David Milliband. (Other than the usual big boss of humanitarian stuff doing well when people are starving thing. which is horrible but inevitable)
When he had his chance he had no gravitas.
Whereas our current PM is just marinated in gravitas.
Well, marinated in something, that's for sure...
The one thing Boris actually and certainly has going for him is gravitas. It's also the one thing that without doubt Corbyn will never have.
Makes no real difference at all, other than Corbyn is simply not a populist, and will never be a popular leader.
In case anyone else hadn't seen that before, apparently "butt-dialing" means accidentally making a phone call with your buttocks when your mobile phone is in your back trouser pocket.
I suspect that the SW seats - other than St Ives - are unlikely. I also don't know how realistic Ceridigion is as a prospect.
Eastbourne will be held by the independent.
North Norfolk loses its incumbent, and was Leave voting so that may not be an easy hold.
Richmond Park will be an easy LibDem gain. Sheffield Hallam will, I suspect, fall to the LDs. Other likely gains are St Ives, Cheltenham and St Albans. Beyond there is gets a bit difficult for the LDs.
Not persuaded re- St Albans - though agree about the others.Fife NE is likely surely.
It was an England and Wales list. But yes, I agree that Fife NE is a likely gain, because Unionist tactical voting will kick in.
The LDs did an incredible job with Daisy Cooper in St Albans in 2017. The LDs leapfrogged Labour in an election where they were being squeezed hard.
She's continued to work the seat incredibly hard in the interim, and the LibDems did really well in the local elections there earlier this year, getting 50% more votes than the Conservatives.
There are no "gimmies", but I would have thought that's a seat where Labour will get squeezed, where (in most seats) it will be the LDs that suffer.
I do believe there will be a few left field seats where the LDs come from nowhere and win..that will be the fun of the night.
I have a very strong suspicion the Lib Dems are going to cause an upset in the Cotswolds.
I would argue that the Labour Party needs to have an election: it either needs to be told that Corbynism is a no-go or that it has a chance of capturing the public imagination. I don’t think that holding on and on, coming up with any old excuse, is doing them any favours at all.
They should take comfort from 2017 and go for it. I agree with their position in refusing to back an election on Monday though if the EU hasn’t come back to confirm the length of extension: to be fair, that is internally consistent.
That was a canny post HY. Just one picture of the bananaman was all it needed to put Oms crazy thoughts to bed and tucked in with the light out.
We ne
Are you serious?
Or have I stumbled in halfway through some bizarre alternative comedy night?
I'm serious as to needing him in betting markets where I can simply lay him to be next pope or whatever.
So far as I can imagine he's no chance of having any importance in British politics in the future.
According to BF though he has 2.5% chance of being the next Labour leader.
As a judgement as to the man, David Milliband is ok though, I've nothing against him.
Nothing against him? You sure?
What about the haircut. He’s never sorted it out.
Well in that he and I share something. A certain blokeishness from actually just not caring - at least that's the way I justify my own barnet shortcomings.
I'm 100% sure I have not even the slightest animosity to David Milliband. (Other than the usual big boss of humanitarian stuff doing well when people are starving thing. which is horrible but inevitable)
When he had his chance he had no gravitas.
Whereas our current PM is just marinated in gravitas.
Well, marinated in something, that's for sure...
The one thing Boris actually and certainly has going for him is gravitas. It's also the one thing that without doubt Corbyn will never have.
Makes no real difference at all, other than Corbyn is simply not a populist, and will never be a popular leader.
I don't know that Boris does have gravitas. He has charisma, to be sure, but when I think of the typical definitions of gravitas Boris is not the first thing that springs to mind. It's a shame for Tory attackers that the 'entitled' line gets so overused, because Boris's petulance certainly seems to spring from a place of entitlement.
Corbyn has a certain level of gravitas, in a quiet manner kind of way, but not much presence to speak of outside of highly specific situations, and is no stranger to a petulant attitude himself.
Martin Lewis "the money saving expert" advises to renew car insurance 21 days before the due date as people who leave it until later are charged more apparently. Maybe too late for this renewal but next year it may mean a lower price. Apparently the same dynamic works for house insurance as well.
Very easy to check - just alter the start date on the comparison site and run the various quotes. Have my doubts about this, more pertinent is the fact that premiums change on a frequent(weekly?) basis.
Interesting. Certainly it's a jungle full of manipulative characters.
I don't know that Boris does have gravitas. He has charisma, to be sure, but when I think of the typical definitions of gravitas Boris is not the first thing that springs to mind. It's a shame for Tory attackers that the 'entitled' line gets so overused, because Boris's petulance certainly seems to spring from a place of entitlement.
Corbyn has a certain level of gravitas, in a quiet manner kind of way, but not much presence to speak of outside of highly specific situations, and is no stranger to a petulant attitude himself.
Sure - I wouldn't quibble with anything you wrote.
Both Boris and Corbyn are at least in part what we see, and what we see are two different men. Neither intrinsically better than the other.
Do you miss the MP tag? Did you get mileage out of it in these sort of daft things at the time?
You're far too straightforward and honest to ever misuse the MP tag, but I imagine you've previously wanted to communicate it at some point. Restaurant table or the like. Easyish if you phone up - online though title, name, surname... hang on no box for 'MP' !
Is there an obvious way?
I don't know - I'd have been embarrassed to try that. I was too busy with politics to do much in London (the original nerd MP) - I went to the theatre once in 13 years. I was well-known in Broxtowe and restaurant managers were usually professionally cordial (in fairness they still are), but I never consciously got or wanted any benefits - my dubious self-image of devoted people's commissar would have taken a knock.
Yeah, I agree with this. I would vote for David Cameron a million times over Boris Johnson. I disagree with Cameron over most things, but at least he has some kind of moral compass and sense of decency. Johnson is a monster.
In case anyone else hadn't seen that before, apparently "butt-dialing" means accidentally making a phone call with your buttocks when your mobile phone is in your back trouser pocket.
There is also nut calling as a friend in NYC told me after doing same.
I suspect that the SW seats - other than St Ives - are unlikely. I also don't know how realistic Ceridigion is as a prospect.
Eastbourne will be held by the independent.
North Norfolk loses its incumbent, and was Leave voting so that may not be an easy hold.
Richmond Park will be an easy LibDem gain. Sheffield Hallam will, I suspect, fall to the LDs. Other likely gains are St Ives, Cheltenham and St Albans. Beyond there is gets a bit difficult for the LDs.
Not persuaded re- St Albans - though agree about the others.Fife NE is likely surely.
It was an England and Wales list. But yes, I agree that Fife NE is a likely gain, because Unionist tactical voting will kick in.
The LDs did an incredible job with Daisy Cooper in St Albans in 2017. The LDs leapfrogged Labour in an election where they were being squeezed hard.
She's continued to work the seat incredibly hard in the interim, and the LibDems did really well in the local elections there earlier this year, getting 50% more votes than the Conservatives.
There are no "gimmies", but I would have thought that's a seat where Labour will get squeezed, where (in most seats) it will be the LDs that suffer.
I do believe there will be a few left field seats where the LDs come from nowhere and win..that will be the fun of the night.
I have a very strong suspicion the Lib Dems are going to cause an upset in the Cotswolds.
That's understandable. It was one of the few non-metropolitan constituencies to vote Remain. Cirencester and Stroud have large sandal-wearing populations. And didn't the sitting MP make a bit of an arse of himself at the Tory Party Conference?
Will certainly be worth looking at the odds when Shadsy puts them up.
Meanwhile the Tories have counted all the Barnsley chickens before they have hatched.
Not Barnsley. But places like Coventry and Wolverhampton could be fun.....
FWIW (which ain't much, I have all the predictive powers of Mystic Meg,) I don't fancy the chances of a Tory majority. I don't think that the total number of losses to the SNP (because there aren't that many Scottish Tories to begin with) and to the Lib Dems (because they're mostly working against hefty Tory majorities in non-Remainiac seats) will be huge, but gains from Labour still won't be sufficient to compensate.
I suspect that the cumulative effect of Labour's tribal loyalty vote, strong Leave but "never Tory" voters in Labour areas either sticking with Labour or spaffing their votes away on the Brexit Party, and an election campaign that gives Corbyn the opportunity to remind poorer electors that they'll get more handouts under a Labour Government, will be enough for Labour not to go too far backwards. For all of those reasons, I also think it's likely that the current opinion polls showing particularly awful Labour figures may be disguising a "shy Labour" vote.
I reckon that, even assuming that the Conservatives win back all the seats of the whipless rebels, they'll still need at least 20 gains from Labour to compensate for losses to the SNP and LDs, in order to reach 320 and a working majority of one. This is doable in theory - there are about thirty Lab-Con marginals that can fall on a swing of less than 3% - but I'm not so sure about their getting across the winning line in practice.
After the 2017 election, I feel very much once bitten, twice shy when it comes to predictions of disaster for the Labour Party (except in Scotland, where they've had their chips.)
The only reason an overall Tory majority is even being discussed is because of our electoral system. Under the electoral system used anywhere else in Europe the Tories wouldn't have a prayer of an overall majority.
I know those are the rules and the 2 dinosaurs that benefit from them are never going to change them but that doesn't make it right. .
O/T: it's car insurance renewal time. I went to a comparison website, applied for a reasonable-looking policy from Bewise insurance, got no documentation or response after several days, so assumed it hadn't gone through and took out insurance with someone else (who has promptly sent all the documentation). I now see they've taken my money. Is there a cooling-off period so I can get it back? The renewal doesn't actually kick in till the 30th.
Just call up and cancel. They'll be obliged to return any unused premium.
Although they may charge a cancelleation fee, I believe.
Distance Selling Regulations should apply - a 14 day cooling off period with auto right to cancel. So try that if they try to do you for a cancellation fee.
In case anyone else hadn't seen that before, apparently "butt-dialing" means accidentally making a phone call with your buttocks when your mobile phone is in your back trouser pocket.
There is also nut calling as a friend in NYC told me after doing same.
I suspect that the SW seats - other than St Ives - are unlikely. I also don't know how realistic Ceridigion is as a prospect.
Eastbourne will be held by the independent.
North Norfolk loses its incumbent, and was Leave voting so that may not be an easy hold.
Richmond Park will be an easy LibDem gain. Sheffield Hallam will, I suspect, fall to the LDs. Other likely gains are St Ives, Cheltenham and St Albans. Beyond there is gets a bit difficult for the LDs.
Not persuaded re- St Albans - though agree about the others.Fife NE is likely surely.
It was an England and Wales list. But yes, I agree that Fife NE is a likely gain, because Unionist tactical voting will kick in.
The LDs did an incredible job with Daisy Cooper in St Albans in 2017. The LDs leapfrogged Labour in an election where they were being squeezed hard.
She's continued to work the seat incredibly hard in the interim, and the LibDems did really well in the local elections there earlier this year, getting 50% more votes than the Conservatives.
There are no "gimmies", but I would have thought that's a seat where Labour will get squeezed, where (in most seats) it will be the LDs that suffer.
I do believe there will be a few left field seats where the LDs come from nowhere and win..that will be the fun of the night.
I think that as well.
Meanwhile the Tories have counted all the Barnsley chickens before they have hatched.
They're not taking Barnsley lol
What about Pennistone and Stocksbridge?
It's going Tory on UNS at the moment.
Lib Dems won 4 of the 6 wards in May. They have a dynamic candidate in Hannah Kitchen and Sheffield Lib Dems are piling in.
I suspect that the SW seats - other than St Ives - are unlikely. I also don't know how realistic Ceridigion is as a prospect.
Eastbourne will be held by the independent.
North Norfolk loses its incumbent, and was Leave voting so that may not be an easy hold.
Richmond Park will be an easy LibDem gain. Sheffield Hallam will, I suspect, fall to the LDs. Other likely gains are St Ives, Cheltenham and St Albans. Beyond there is gets a bit difficult for the LDs.
Not persuaded re- St Albans - though agree about the others.Fife NE is likely surely.
It was an England and Wales list. But yes, I agree that Fife NE is a likely gain, because Unionist tactical voting will kick in.
The LDs did an incredible job with Daisy Cooper in St Albans in 2017. The LDs leapfrogged Labour in an election where they were being squeezed hard.
She's continued to work the seat incredibly hard in the interim, and the LibDems did really well in the local elections there earlier this year, getting 50% more votes than the Conservatives.
There are no "gimmies", but I would have thought that's a seat where Labour will get squeezed, where (in most seats) it will be the LDs that suffer.
I do believe there will be a few left field seats where the LDs come from nowhere and win..that will be the fun of the night.
I think that as well.
Meanwhile the Tories have counted all the Barnsley chickens before they have hatched.
They're not taking Barnsley lol
What about Pennistone and Stocksbridge?
It's going Tory on UNS at the moment.
Lib Dems won 4 of the 6 wards in May. They have a dynamic candidate in Hannah Kitchen and Sheffield Lib Dems are piling in.
Life is strange I have just had to take my last dog to be put to sleep, I took my wife with me so that maybe , just maybe, she will remember why and when, but it’s a sad moment and although life will now be easier there will be a gap.
Damn. Sorry Nichomar. That is a tough paragraph to read from start to finish. Thinking of you very kindly tonight.
Why not more honest than working for UK Pravda BBC unit. Helps us get some real news rather than the fake stuff we are used to.
There's a difference. RT is the mouthpiece of a fascist regime. However bad Westminster is -- and it's bad, no mistake -- it's not fascist or even close. Yes the BBC is a pile of shit. It's that bad I've cancelled my TV license cos I refuse to pay a penny for it. Yes it's narrow, biased, blind, deferential to elites and every so often racist. But there's a qualitative difference between the British and Russian governments they speak up for. I think Salmond has made a profound mistake in signing up with RT.
So have you junked all your TVs?
No. But I don't watch live TV or BBC iPlayer. You can legally use a TV without a license.
Do you suffer from a small period of fear on the evenings you watch a dvd on your TV when it blindly shows you bbc1 when you turn it on?
I've long thought tv detector vans were/are an elaborate myth. Or at least their ability to actually detect.
Nonetheless I happily pay my license, and would do so for a tenth of the content. (I watch little TV, and it's mainly the radio I like - I've got a transistor one you know... much like the wireless but smaller! )
My TV is incapable of receiving a TV signal unaided (without being plugged into an aerial, or a box of some sort, or both, probably), so that isn't a concern.
Exactly the same here. I've genuinely not watched any live tv for a long time, apart from when I've been a pub or friends' or relatives' houses.
I'm actually getting a bit sad about it. Series 1 of Star Trek Discovery has been sold to Channel 4 and I am thinking of watching it, but it's been so long since I switched the telly on I've forgotten the start-up procedure (y'know, it involves remotes and two buttons). The BBC remake of War of the Worlds ( butchers the book but oddly good) has been leaked to YouTube so I've already watched it, so when it's shown (Xmas time?) I might miss it. Life is changing fast...
Switch of your tv! Then suddenly a change, the passing of something — knew not what — and then a stillness that could be felt. Nothing but this gaunt quiet.
Why not more honest than working for UK Pravda BBC unit. Helps us get some real news rather than the fake stuff we are used to.
There's a difference. RT is the mouthpiece of a fascist regime. However bad Westminster is -- and it's bad, no mistake -- it's not fascist or even close. Yes the BBC is a pile of shit. It's that bad I've cancelled my TV license cos I refuse to pay a penny for it. Yes it's narrow, biased, blind, deferential to elites and every so often racist. But there's a qualitative difference between the British and Russian governments they speak up for. I think Salmond has made a profound mistake in signing up with RT.
Is he doing that at the moment? I would have thought he had other things on his mind given what’s coming up next month.
Admittedly, he probably needs the money.
I doubt that , he made a quick £500K+ profit on the first round , given the disaster and chums involved and what we have seen/heard so far it may well be he makes much more in later rounds.
Not a profit - just his legal costs paid for him without quibble or trimming of the usual margin.
But there were obviously some serious procedural issues exposed. Whether those feed on into later court action I wouldn't like to say.
Carnyx, he got double money , almost unheard of as it has to be real bad for them to pay that out without even a check. I suspect any case against him must be comprised by the way it has been handled , whether true or not.
Comments
Make of that what you will.
(I've never even seen her speak. I suspect, though, that her resolute Remainery will resonate with around a fifth of voters next time around.)
I'm 100% sure I have not even the slightest animosity to David Milliband. (Other than the usual big boss of humanitarian stuff doing well when people are starving thing. which is horrible but inevitable)
Her current style has some slight risk of being totally disastrous. She's not that daft and the collective wisdom of the LDs definitely isn't that daft.
Her best bet would be to get Clegg to help her.
So far as I can see her next best bet is OGH
https://theweek.com/articles/873324/why-democratic-primary-seems-primed-dark-horse
Is that your gut feel, or are u not sure.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/joe-biden-tells-60-minutes-im-the-frontrunner-as-democratic-race-tightens/
He only has $9million.
Well, marinated in something, that's for sure...
It's also the one thing that without doubt Corbyn will never have.
Makes no real difference at all, other than Corbyn is simply not a populist, and will never be a popular leader.
They should take comfort from 2017 and go for it. I agree with their position in refusing to back an election on Monday though if the EU hasn’t come back to confirm the length of extension: to be fair, that is internally consistent.
https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1187813181500149761?s=19
Corbyn has a certain level of gravitas, in a quiet manner kind of way, but not much presence to speak of outside of highly specific situations, and is no stranger to a petulant attitude himself.
Both Boris and Corbyn are at least in part what we see, and what we see are two different men. Neither intrinsically better than the other.
He wasn't allowed to explicitly say so.
Will certainly be worth looking at the odds when Shadsy puts them up.
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1187480582458138634
I know those are the rules and the 2 dinosaurs that benefit from them are never going to change them but that doesn't make it right. .
Decided it will vote for an election
(although which date remains unclear).Then suddenly a change, the passing of something — knew not what — and then a stillness that could be felt. Nothing but this gaunt quiet.
And read.