I think politicians need to remember that whatever happens, fairly soon they'll have to justify their actions to electors on the doorstep. These manoeuvrings are getting very difficult to understand, let alone justify.
Yep...people are looking at this and seeing just game playing, which disgusts everyone.
Boris is clear.. Boris wants an election, that's a strong position to hammer home. Clear argument, clear positions are what's needed.
Have we seen any real evidence that a three-month extension isn't going to satisfy Corbyn's condition of taking No Deal off the table before he agrees to an election?
Unfortunately the EU not being able to decide how long the extension will be, clearly won't.
Israel is going to probably ggo through ANOTHER election shortly. It's probably in a healthier place than us though right now.
The problem is Isreal elections will always lean towards nationalism because the the Jews in the occupied West Bank and Golan Heights are able to vote, and they will always vote for the hard right/nationalist parties.
I have a Jewish Israeli friend living in London who felt so passionately about it that she flew from the UK to Israel specifically to vote against Netanyahu. She might have to repeat the trip.
Why can't she just vote proxy?
Don't know. She was all fired up. I'll ask her next time I see her.
I think politicians need to remember that whatever happens, fairly soon they'll have to justify their actions to electors on the doorstep. These manoeuvrings are getting very difficult to understand, let alone justify.
Yep...people are looking at this and seeing just game playing, which disgusts everyone.
Boris is clear.. Boris wants an election, that's a strong position to hammer home. Clear argument, clear positions are what's needed.
Have we seen any real evidence that a three-month extension isn't going to satisfy Corbyn's condition of taking No Deal off the table before he agrees to an election?
Unfortunately the EU not being able to decide how long the extension will be, clearly won't.
A weekend poll with a narrowing Tory lead or evidence of BXP resurgence, even in some hypotheticals, and a “you can have an extension if you do something with it” from the EU and you’d think Corbyn would roll the dice.
But I don’t have his best interests at heart so I’m biased and don’t trust my instincts enough to bet on it.
You can also get 33/1 on a Labour/Libdem&SNP coalition in next govt. Considering that pretty much what we have now that seems a decent price
I wonder if the period of inability of a functioning majority government will cause voters to swing to the opposite and vote in a majority of one sort or another. Boris, Jeremy or Jo could be smiling, while two of them are deposed.
Your mistake there is to think of 'the voters' as a single entity; we might all want a majority government but if we are evenly split on which party should have that majority, it probably ain't happening.
In which case we’re back to a boycott with a very legitimate grievance.
Approximately how many of the 17 million do we think voted with a strong desire for us to trade with the EU on basic WTO terms rather than with a free trade deal?
Back to the topic, looking at the numbers (and if allowed to take positions based on the financial reserves of the big players on here).
BUY Conservative seats at 325 - IF the polls are right and the Conservatives lead by 12-15% a landslide is inevitable even if the vote is well distributed which it won't be. I could easily see if the Conservatives are polling in the high 30s with the opposition in the 20s the Conservatives winning close to 400 seats.
Labour: don't get involved - 209 was the historic post-war low for Labour in 1983 and while it's possible some unlikely Labour seats will go, the Tories ain't winning East Ham so I don't see much margin for a sell at 205.
SELL LD seats at 43 - I'm an LD, I'd love us to win 443 seats but that probably won't happen. The Party won 46 seats in 1997 on 18% of the vote and while some of those have been regained or are close (St Ives, Cheltenham Fife NE), I don't quite see where the rest come from and the party starts, let's be honest, at 13 not 18 or 19 despite the defections. A realistic number for me looks to be in the low 30s.
I don't know enough about Scottish or Welsh politics to have a view on the SNP and Plaid performances and I don't see the second Green seat though someone may have a better view on that.
Have we seen any real evidence that a three-month extension isn't going to satisfy Corbyn's condition of taking No Deal off the table before he agrees to an election?
Unfortunately the EU not being able to decide how long the extension will be, clearly won't.
If the extension comes back until 31/01 then I am not sure what other reassurances Corbyn could be given about ND being off the table.
We all know it is just about avoiding a GE which is why Abbott look so flummoxed when she was asked what Labour were actually looking for.
My feeling is their requirements will be deliberately unattainable so as to give Corbyn at least something to hide behind.
I thought LDs have said very clearly they won't go into coalition with anyone.
And it's surely inconceivable they would ever go into coalition with SNP - given their views on the Union are the complete opposite.
If the numbers were there it's far more likely there would be a Lab Minority Govt with LD and SNP supporting on vote by vote basis.
1 - The LDs said that they would never increase student loans. Changing your mind is part of the horse trading necessary when trying to make government work
2 - The SNP will demand their 2nd referendum as part of any deal - whether formal or informal. Hard for the LDs to deny them that.
Have we seen any real evidence that a three-month extension isn't going to satisfy Corbyn's condition of taking No Deal off the table before he agrees to an election?
Unfortunately the EU not being able to decide how long the extension will be, clearly won't.
If the extension comes back until 31/01 then I am not sure what other reassurances Corbyn could be given about ND being off the table.
We all know it is just about avoiding a GE which is why Abbott look so flummoxed when she was asked what Labour were actually looking for.
My feeling is their requirements will be deliberately unattainable so as to give Corbyn at least something to hide behind.
Corbyn will keep making up new reasons to hide from voters
Back to the topic, looking at the numbers (and if allowed to take positions based on the financial reserves of the big players on here).
BUY Conservative seats at 325 - IF the polls are right and the Conservatives lead by 12-15% a landslide is inevitable even if the vote is well distributed which it won't be. I could easily see if the Conservatives are polling in the high 30s with the opposition in the 20s the Conservatives winning close to 400 seats.
Labour: don't get involved - 209 was the historic post-war low for Labour in 1983 and while it's possible some unlikely Labour seats will go, the Tories ain't winning East Ham so I don't see much margin for a sell at 205.
SELL LD seats at 43 - I'm an LD, I'd love us to win 443 seats but that probably won't happen. The Party won 46 seats in 1997 on 18% of the vote and while some of those have been regained or are close (St Ives, Cheltenham Fife NE), I don't quite see where the rest come from and the party starts, let's be honest, at 13 not 18 or 19 despite the defections. A realistic number for me looks to be in the low 30s.
I don't know enough about Scottish or Welsh politics to have a view on the SNP and Plaid performances and I don't see the second Green seat though someone may have a better view on that.
How easily can you trade out on this market? The downside risk has usually scared me.
I ask the question because I think the Tory numbers will dip at some stage around and about an election off the back of a short run of tight polls. My problem is deciding who will look like the beneficiary....
If the extension comes back until 31/01 then I am not sure what other reassurances Corbyn could be given about ND being off the table.
We all know it is just about avoiding a GE which is why Abbott look so flummoxed when she was asked what Labour were actually looking for.
My feeling is their requirements will be deliberately unattainable so as to give Corbyn at least something to hide behind.
Passing the WA with the current transition timetable means we have to agree an FTA with the EU by 31/12/20 or we leave on WTO rules - i.e: crash out as some want us to on 31/10/19.
The WA does not prevent or stop No deal - it postpones it and there have been plenty saying agreeing a comprehensive FTA with the EU in 12 months is impossible so we will be back to a further extension of transition sometime around July 2020.
Were we to have a Johnson majority Government at the time, his sheep would all vote as he tells them so they would rule out an extension and we could crash out on 31/12/20 at the end of transition.
While this Parliament could be bound by a guarantee not to exit transition without a comprehensive FTA in place, a future Parliament wouldn't be bound by it so Johnson wants his GE and his majority - it's long past being about the WA it's now about an FTA.
Very strong position for Macron now. If he can help the UK out of the EU he's in pole position to become the dominant force within it. Germany is enfeebled with a chancellor on her last legs politically, a parliament that's almost as divided and dysfunctional as ours and an economy that is clearly struggling. Macron will never have a better chance to progress his vision for the EU.
In his position, and with his apparent sense of destiny, why would he give the UK a further 3 months to fanny about unless there's a defined purpose e.g. a GE. It's quite clear that this remainer parliament will do whatever it takes to thwart Brexit, and Macron knows it. He wants us out, and unless he points a gun at this parliament it won't oblige him.
In which case we’re back to a boycott with a very legitimate grievance.
Approximately how many of the 17 million do we think voted with a strong desire for us to trade with the EU on basic WTO terms rather than with a free trade deal?
Not relevant to the point I was making. I was replying to a post suggesting a referendum without EC involvement. One like that is crying out for a boycott rather than even bothering to fight it.
1 - The LDs said that they would never increase student loans. Changing your mind is part of the horse trading necessary when trying to make government work
2 - The SNP will demand their 2nd referendum as part of any deal - whether formal or informal. Hard for the LDs to deny them that.
3. The Conservatives under David Cameron said before the 2010 GE they would not go into coalition with the Liberal Democrats.
As you say, what someone says BEFORE an election and what someone says AFTER are two different things.
Back to the topic, looking at the numbers (and if allowed to take positions based on the financial reserves of the big players on here).
BUY Conservative seats at 325 - IF the polls are right and the Conservatives lead by 12-15% a landslide is inevitable even if the vote is well distributed which it won't be. I could easily see if the Conservatives are polling in the high 30s with the opposition in the 20s the Conservatives winning close to 400 seats.
Labour: don't get involved - 209 was the historic post-war low for Labour in 1983 and while it's possible some unlikely Labour seats will go, the Tories ain't winning East Ham so I don't see much margin for a sell at 205.
SELL LD seats at 43 - I'm an LD, I'd love us to win 443 seats but that probably won't happen. The Party won 46 seats in 1997 on 18% of the vote and while some of those have been regained or are close (St Ives, Cheltenham Fife NE), I don't quite see where the rest come from and the party starts, let's be honest, at 13 not 18 or 19 despite the defections. A realistic number for me looks to be in the low 30s.
I don't know enough about Scottish or Welsh politics to have a view on the SNP and Plaid performances and I don't see the second Green seat though someone may have a better view on that.
How easily can you trade out on this market? The downside risk has usually scared me.
I ask the question because I think the Tory numbers will dip at some stage around and about an election off the back of a short run of tight polls. My problem is deciding who will look like the beneficiary....
I messed up the spreads last election, bought Tory seats at 380. Spread betting is a very easy way to lose a lot of money, tread carefully! Oh, and they have a habit of suspending markets for 're-evaluation' whenever a major story breaks, so unlike Betfair it's difficult to make money by being ahead of the news.
Corbyn will keep making up new reasons to hide from voters
Frit. Frit. And more Frit
The opposite. He is hot to Trot but is being restrained by influential others. One thing he is not is afraid of the voters.
You're 'frit' of HIM, though, aren't you?
So the "leader" wants an election but his followers don't, so he decides to lead by ... following them?!
You think Tories are frit? We'd love an election so that we can send the vampire of socialism back to its crypt for another generation and get on with running the country properly.
Passing the WA with the current transition timetable means we have to agree an FTA with the EU by 31/12/20 or we leave on WTO rules - i.e: crash out as some want us to on 31/10/19.
The WA does not prevent or stop No deal - it postpones it and there have been plenty saying agreeing a comprehensive FTA with the EU in 12 months is impossible so we will be back to a further extension of transition sometime around July 2020.
Were we to have a Johnson majority Government at the time, his sheep would all vote as he tells them so they would rule out an extension and we could crash out on 31/12/20 at the end of transition.
While this Parliament could be bound by a guarantee not to exit transition without a comprehensive FTA in place, a future Parliament wouldn't be bound by it so Johnson wants his GE and his majority - it's long past being about the WA it's now about an FTA.
If the only amendment to the WA was an extension of the transition to 2021/22 then that wouldn't seem like an insurmountable obstacle to passing the WAB.
I'm assuming in that case it would be a rubber stamping exercise in Brussels which could be done this side of Christmas.
Back to the topic, looking at the numbers (and if allowed to take positions based on the financial reserves of the big players on here).
BUY Conservative seats at 325 - IF the polls are right and the Conservatives lead by 12-15% a landslide is inevitable even if the vote is well distributed which it won't be. I could easily see if the Conservatives are polling in the high 30s with the opposition in the 20s the Conservatives winning close to 400 seats.
Labour: don't get involved - 209 was the historic post-war low for Labour in 1983 and while it's possible some unlikely Labour seats will go, the Tories ain't winning East Ham so I don't see much margin for a sell at 205.
SELL LD seats at 43 - I'm an LD, I'd love us to win 443 seats but that probably won't happen. The Party won 46 seats in 1997 on 18% of the vote and while some of those have been regained or are close (St Ives, Cheltenham Fife NE), I don't quite see where the rest come from and the party starts, let's be honest, at 13 not 18 or 19 despite the defections. A realistic number for me looks to be in the low 30s.
I don't know enough about Scottish or Welsh politics to have a view on the SNP and Plaid performances and I don't see the second Green seat though someone may have a better view on that.
How easily can you trade out on this market? The downside risk has usually scared me.
I ask the question because I think the Tory numbers will dip at some stage around and about an election off the back of a short run of tight polls. My problem is deciding who will look like the beneficiary....
I messed up the spreads last election, bought Tory seats at 380. Spread betting is a very easy way to lose a lot of money, tread carefully! Oh, and they have a habit of suspending markets for 're-evaluation' whenever a major story breaks, so unlike Betfair it's difficult to make money by being ahead of the news.
Thanks. Yes they scare me - think I’ll trust that instinct.
Not relevant to the point I was making. I was replying to a post suggesting a referendum without EC involvement. One like that is crying out for a boycott rather than even bothering to fight it.
Ah OK, sorry. I thought you meant the boycott would come if any Ref2 did not have WTO Brexit on the ballot (EC or no EC).
Are you sure that's not what you meant?
No, don't answer that, let us assume it wasn't what you meant but you do ALSO think this, so as to get my question back into play -
Approximately how many of the 17 million do we think voted with a strong desire for us to trade with the EU on basic WTO terms rather than with a free trade deal?
Not satisfied with devaluing our currency with their incompetence, Brexiteers are now minting ridiculous coins to "commemorate" their policy of national self harm, and now they have to halt them. Which bunch of morons in government signed this off?
Not relevant to the point I was making. I was replying to a post suggesting a referendum without EC involvement. One like that is crying out for a boycott rather than even bothering to fight it.
Ah OK, sorry. I thought you meant the boycott would come if any Ref2 did not have WTO Brexit on the ballot (EC or no EC).
Are you sure that's not what you meant?
No, don't answer that, let us assume it wasn't what you meant but you do ALSO think this, so as to get my question back into play -
Approximately how many of the 17 million do we think voted with a strong desire for us to trade with the EU on basic WTO terms rather than with a free trade deal?
Sorry why are you asking me? I’d rather not have another referendum because I don’t want Remain to win it. No other reason. I also accept this deal vs. remain would be entirely fair. I just don’t want it to happen because, again, I don’t want remain to win and it might do.
We’re not on Question Time and we’re not politicians - I’m happy to be honest.
Edit - There’s a difference between what I want and what I think will happen or others will do. I assume the latter is more interesting on a betting website. Surely none of us are here to convince each other - we’re here to make cash.
Edit two - I’m not superhuman and sometimes I’ll slip and fight an argument.
Back to the topic, looking at the numbers (and if allowed to take positions based on the financial reserves of the big players on here).
BUY Conservative seats at 325 - IF the polls are right and the Conservatives lead by 12-15% a landslide is inevitable even if the vote is well distributed which it won't be. I could easily see if the Conservatives are polling in the high 30s with the opposition in the 20s the Conservatives winning close to 400 seats.
Labour: don't get involved - 209 was the historic post-war low for Labour in 1983 and while it's possible some unlikely Labour seats will go, the Tories ain't winning East Ham so I don't see much margin for a sell at 205.
SELL LD seats at 43 - I'm an LD, I'd love us to win 443 seats but that probably won't happen. The Party won 46 seats in 1997 on 18% of the vote and while some of those have been regained or are close (St Ives, Cheltenham Fife NE), I don't quite see where the rest come from and the party starts, let's be honest, at 13 not 18 or 19 despite the defections. A realistic number for me looks to be in the low 30s.
I don't know enough about Scottish or Welsh politics to have a view on the SNP and Plaid performances and I don't see the second Green seat though someone may have a better view on that.
How easily can you trade out on this market? The downside risk has usually scared me.
I ask the question because I think the Tory numbers will dip at some stage around and about an election off the back of a short run of tight polls. My problem is deciding who will look like the beneficiary....
I messed up the spreads last election, bought Tory seats at 380. Spread betting is a very easy way to lose a lot of money, tread carefully! Oh, and they have a habit of suspending markets for 're-evaluation' whenever a major story breaks, so unlike Betfair it's difficult to make money by being ahead of the news.
Yes, not my cup of tea either. In 2017, Ionly had a minor dabble, but didn't like the gearing. We have had a lot of unpredictable elections recently. To me these markets violate the advice of to not bet more than you can afford to lose.
Israel is going to probably ggo through ANOTHER election shortly. It's probably in a healthier place than us though right now.
The problem is Isreal elections will always lean towards nationalism because the the Jews in the occupied West Bank and Golan Heights are able to vote, and they will always vote for the hard right/nationalist parties.
I have a Jewish Israeli friend living in London who felt so passionately about it that she flew from the UK to Israel specifically to vote against Netanyahu. She might have to repeat the trip.
Why can't she just vote proxy?
Not everywhere has proxy voting. I'm not sure if any US states have it, but we don't in New York. All we have in NYS is absentee voting by post (must be for a specific reason although this is not verified in practice) and, starting this year, early voting at select locations.
If we do crash out it will be because the opposition decided ND was a preferable choice to the deal that is available now.
There would be a delicious irony in Corbyn, Swinson and Blackford causing an unnecessary no deal exit.
The only people who have caused it are the incompetent and lying toads that advocated the whole ridiculous idea in the first place. Yes I am talking about the bullshitter-in-chief, who is also our Prime minister, God preserve us
Sorry why are you asking me? I’d rather not have another referendum because I don’t want Remain to win it. No other reason. I also accept this deal vs. remain would be entirely fair. I just don’t want it to happen because, again, I don’t want remain to win and it might do.
We’re not on Question Time and we’re not politicians - I’m happy to be honest.
I'm sure there will not be another referendum. And of course you do not have to reply to my question. I will not pose it again. Well, not to you anyway.
Very strong position for Macron now. If he can help the UK out of the EU he's in pole position to become the dominant force within it. Germany is enfeebled with a chancellor on her last legs politically, a parliament that's almost as divided and dysfunctional as ours and an economy that is clearly struggling. Macron will never have a better chance to progress his vision for the EU.
In his position, and with his apparent sense of destiny, why would he give the UK a further 3 months to fanny about unless there's a defined purpose e.g. a GE. It's quite clear that this remainer parliament will do whatever it takes to thwart Brexit, and Macron knows it. He wants us out, and unless he points a gun at this parliament it won't oblige him.
You certainly have an appropriate nom de plume. Unless you were of very small brain (not a prerequisite for all Leavers) you would realise that the "remainer" parliament has not been the primary reason Brexit has been "thwarted", if it indeed has. It will be because the headbanging frothing morons that make up the Tory right didn't think that the TMay deal was "pure" enough for them and their DUP chums. Had they done so it would all be on to next stage by now.
I messed up the spreads last election, bought Tory seats at 380. Spread betting is a very easy way to lose a lot of money, tread carefully! Oh, and they have a habit of suspending markets for 're-evaluation' whenever a major story breaks, so unlike Betfair it's difficult to make money by being ahead of the news.
Yep, playing with fire.
The only proper spreadbet I have had was selling the Iceland goal time when we played them in Euro 16.
I'll sell SNP at 47 at a quid a seat if any of you boasty Separatists want to Buy at that level with me.
You've changed your tune, you were suggesting the SNP might go below their current 35 a few weeks ago.
Yes and we tried to agree terms, but like the UK and EU we were unable to (you needed me to travel to Glasgow ffs if I lost)
Post by cheque is my terms (I know terribly old fashioned)
I'll be chuffed if the SNP get 47+ seats, so it's a no deal for me.
LOL - chicken like Corbyn (or wisely avoiding spreadbetting)
Given there is no chance SNP will get less seats surely it is just 12 quid at stake either way. Starting at 47 is a bit cheeky though, show how confident you are.
Mr. Indyref2, should work out, Red Bull have been a bit slow lately.
...
...Vettel takes out Hamilton, Bottas and Leclerc at the start.
btw, the Renault engine might not be as effective this year, as it's said that they've shrunk the turbo in an effort to match Mercedes/Ferrari on the rest of the circuits.
The only people who have caused it are the incompetent and lying toads that advocated the whole ridiculous idea in the first place. Yes I am talking about the bullshitter-in-chief, who is also our Prime minister, God preserve us
That may or may not be true depending on your perspective but here we are anyway.
There is a deal sat waiting to be passed and there is absolutely no good reason for the opposition to risk a no deal exit.
It would be lunacy...and would let the Tories off the hook for any subsequent negative consequences.
Sorry why are you asking me? I’d rather not have another referendum because I don’t want Remain to win it. No other reason. I also accept this deal vs. remain would be entirely fair. I just don’t want it to happen because, again, I don’t want remain to win and it might do.
We’re not on Question Time and we’re not politicians - I’m happy to be honest.
I'm sure there will not be another referendum. And of course you do not have to reply to my question. I will not pose it again. Well, not to you anyway.
Sorry forgot to actually answer and very happy to! More than half won’t have thought about it, and of those that did almost all of them will have assumed some sort of trade deal. Most, like me, will have skimmed over the NI question. So clearly the answer to your question is almost none.
I am aware I got a leave result by voting alongside probably every racist in the country. I feel a bit dirty but I think the final end state will be something like EFTA/EEA. In fact in a perfect world I think us in EFTA would open the door to a much bigger EEA that spanned most of Europe and into bits of Asia and the Middle East.
I’m sorry to say but Corbyns position is falling apart on an election .
It’s impossible to rule out no deal at the end of the transition period unless Labour win an election .
Regardless of what law is passed now that can be changed in the future if the Tories win an election .
It’s impossible for this government to last until July 2020 which is the date at which any further extension to the transition period needs to be agreed by.
Johnson is playing stupid games but Labour aren’t exactly ones to moralize too much on this issue .
Macron is getting on many people’s nerves but he does have a point , clearly if no election is called soon it will then be impossible to have one before the end of January 2020.
And then the EU will have to put up with more Commons psychodrama .
Have we seen any real evidence that a three-month extension isn't going to satisfy Corbyn's condition of taking No Deal off the table before he agrees to an election?
Unfortunately the EU not being able to decide how long the extension will be, clearly won't.
If the extension comes back until 31/01 then I am not sure what other reassurances Corbyn could be given about ND being off the table.
We all know it is just about avoiding a GE which is why Abbott look so flummoxed when she was asked what Labour were actually looking for.
My feeling is their requirements will be deliberately unattainable so as to give Corbyn at least something to hide behind.
I think whether Labour wants to avoid an election will depend partly on whether postponing it and at the same time blocking the deal will improve or worsen their prospects. I would have thought the latter.
Back to the topic, looking at the numbers (and if allowed to take positions based on the financial reserves of the big players on here).
BUY Conservative seats at 325 - IF the polls are right and the Conservatives lead by 12-15% a landslide is inevitable even if the vote is well distributed which it won't be. I could easily see if the Conservatives are polling in the high 30s with the opposition in the 20s the Conservatives winning close to 400 seats.
Labour: don't get involved - 209 was the historic post-war low for Labour in 1983 and while it's possible some unlikely Labour seats will go, the Tories ain't winning East Ham so I don't see much margin for a sell at 205.
SELL LD seats at 43 - I'm an LD, I'd love us to win 443 seats but that probably won't happen. The Party won 46 seats in 1997 on 18% of the vote and while some of those have been regained or are close (St Ives, Cheltenham Fife NE), I don't quite see where the rest come from and the party starts, let's be honest, at 13 not 18 or 19 despite the defections. A realistic number for me looks to be in the low 30s.
I don't know enough about Scottish or Welsh politics to have a view on the SNP and Plaid performances and I don't see the second Green seat though someone may have a better view on that.
A fair assessment, but unless I'm going to commit to regularly updating my stakes, I'll probably stay clear. The Tory total could easily end up much higher or somewhat lower, depending on how savvy the "remain alliance" is in its tactical voting, and what role Farage takes in the election - the BXP vote could be anything from 10% to 20%.
The LibDem total is also hard to predict. I'd tend to say that if the Tories are doing reasonably well, the number of LD seats is depressed, but it could be that Brexit has changed that. Local election results have shown that the 18-22% national support for the LDs is more unevenly distributed than it used to be, with levels more like 40% in south central England, where I expect them to achieve some big swings and several gains.
The 2nd Green seat might be the IOW, especially if BXP stand.
I'll sell SNP at 47 at a quid a seat if any of you boasty Separatists want to Buy at that level with me.
You've changed your tune, you were suggesting the SNP might go below their current 35 a few weeks ago.
Yes and we tried to agree terms, but like the UK and EU we were unable to (you needed me to travel to Glasgow ffs if I lost)
Post by cheque is my terms (I know terribly old fashioned)
I'll be chuffed if the SNP get 47+ seats, so it's a no deal for me.
LOL - chicken like Corbyn (or wisely avoiding spreadbetting)
Given there is no chance SNP will get less seats surely it is just 12 quid at stake either way. Starting at 47 is a bit cheeky though, show how confident you are.
I'll sell SNP at 47 at a quid a seat if any of you boasty Separatists want to Buy at that level with me.
You've changed your tune, you were suggesting the SNP might go below their current 35 a few weeks ago.
Yes and we tried to agree terms, but like the UK and EU we were unable to (you needed me to travel to Glasgow ffs if I lost)
Post by cheque is my terms (I know terribly old fashioned)
I'll be chuffed if the SNP get 47+ seats, so it's a no deal for me.
LOL - chicken like Corbyn (or wisely avoiding spreadbetting)
Given there is no chance SNP will get less seats surely it is just 12 quid at stake either way. Starting at 47 is a bit cheeky though, show how confident you are.
Let us all pause and reflect at the haunting dying words of despair of the young woman in the back of the trailer to her family as she died, having paid £30,000 to the smugglers. Her last words were to apologise to her family
The texts are so upsetting it is difficult to think of the agonies that young woman and her family suffered.
So, have the government stopped pouting and agreed to continue trying to see us Brexit even if denied an election, or are they still insisting that they love Brexit so much they will stop trying to Brexit in protest?
So, have the government stopped pouting and agreed to continue trying to see us Brexit even if denied an election, or are they still insisting that they love Brexit so much they will stop trying to Brexit in protest?
There's really no point in the government "trying to Brexit" as unless something significant occurs this remainer parliament will find whatever reasons, whatever devices and whatever procedures it needs to thwart Brexit. Trying to overcome such obstacles will be a waste of time.
That all changes of course if Macron reduces the extension in the absence of the GE vote being carried on Monday.
Back to the topic, looking at the numbers (and if allowed to take positions based on the financial reserves of the big players on here).
BUY Conservative seats at 325 - IF the polls are right and the Conservatives lead by 12-15% a landslide is inevitable even if the vote is well distributed which it won't be. I could easily see if the Conservatives are polling in the high 30s with the opposition in the 20s the Conservatives winning close to 400 seats.
Labour: don't get involved - 209 was the historic post-war low for Labour in 1983 and while it's possible some unlikely Labour seats will go, the Tories ain't winning East Ham so I don't see much margin for a sell at 205.
SELL LD seats at 43 - I'm an LD, I'd love us to win 443 seats but that probably won't happen. The Party won 46 seats in 1997 on 18% of the vote and while some of those have been regained or are close (St Ives, Cheltenham Fife NE), I don't quite see where the rest come from and the party starts, let's be honest, at 13 not 18 or 19 despite the defections. A realistic number for me looks to be in the low 30s.
I don't know enough about Scottish or Welsh politics to have a view on the SNP and Plaid performances and I don't see the second Green seat though someone may have a better view on that.
A fair assessment, but unless I'm going to commit to regularly updating my stakes, I'll probably stay clear. The Tory total could easily end up much higher or somewhat lower, depending on how savvy the "remain alliance" is in its tactical voting, and what role Farage takes in the election - the BXP vote could be anything from 10% to 20%.
The LibDem total is also hard to predict. I'd tend to say that if the Tories are doing reasonably well, the number of LD seats is depressed, but it could be that Brexit has changed that. Local election results have shown that the 18-22% national support for the LDs is more unevenly distributed than it used to be, with levels more like 40% in south central England, where I expect them to achieve some big swings and several gains.
The 2nd Green seat might be the IOW, especially if BXP stand.
The difficulty with LD Green and PC is how effective the Remain Alliance is, and how much the BXP takes off the Tory vote. Until closer to the election,and some idea of circumstances, not a market for me.
I wonder how close to a breakdown some MPs are over all this. Labour leavers are under two sets of immense pressure in particular.
Crying through the Aye lobby on third reading anyone ?
The stress must be unbearable
However, they decided to play games with the second reading and programme motion in a move designed to change the deal to a customs union and referendum, but how it has backfired
In both TM deal and Boris's they tried to be too clever and how they must now be regretting their decisions
I wonder how close to a breakdown the PM is over all this.
The stress must be unbearable
However, he decided to play games with the second reading and programme motion in a move designed bulldoze the WAB through with inadequate scrutiny but how it has backfired
In both TM deal and Boris's they tried to be too clever and how they must now be regretting their decisions
A days work would kill him, this is just mincing about. Stressful my arse, stupidity more like.
So, have the government stopped pouting and agreed to continue trying to see us Brexit even if denied an election, or are they still insisting that they love Brexit so much they will stop trying to Brexit in protest?
There's really no point in the government "trying to Brexit" as unless something significant occurs this remainer parliament will find whatever reasons, whatever devices and whatever procedures it needs to thwart Brexit. Trying to overcome such obstacles will be a waste of time.
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No, it demonstrates that Boris wants to Brexit but is being thwarted. That's a more powerful message than just saying that they till thwart you. Trying to overcome such obstacles is only a waste of time if the governments think it will fail, is unable to overcome them, and thus is an admission of weakness.
Particularly when the government's spin was they had the numbers to pass it, which would make them either weak now, or lying then.
Indeed, trying but failing to Brexit has helped Boris in the polls - he would be advised to continue that, rather than sulk, as it would help his polling even more.
Let us all pause and reflect at the haunting dying words of despair of the young woman in the back of the trailer to her family as she died, having paid £30,000 to the smugglers. Her last words were to apologise to her family
The texts are so upsetting it is difficult to think of the agonies that young woman and her family suffered.
May she rest in peace
They are pretty grim. So is the whole case, for the matter of that.
I’m sorry to say but Corbyns position is falling apart on an election .
It’s impossible to rule out no deal at the end of the transition period unless Labour win an election .
Regardless of what law is passed now that can be changed in the future if the Tories win an election .
It’s impossible for this government to last until July 2020 which is the date at which any further extension to the transition period needs to be agreed by.
Johnson is playing stupid games but Labour aren’t exactly ones to moralize too much on this issue .
Macron is getting on many people’s nerves but he does have a point , clearly if no election is called soon it will then be impossible to have one before the end of January 2020.
And then the EU will have to put up with more Commons psychodrama .
Once the election attempt under the FTPA doesn't pass, is a second go then ruled out of order by Bercow upon hearing the EU extension news because he'd expect the "PM to be the law" ? Or is it allowed because we don't KNOW on Monday if the EU is going to grant an extension and hence the terms ?
It should be b) but I can see him saving Labour's bacon by going for i.
Anyway Labour is looking preposterous, the goalposts have been moved to Mars politically speaking.
Have we seen any real evidence that a three-month extension isn't going to satisfy Corbyn's condition of taking No Deal off the table before he agrees to an election?
Unfortunately the EU not being able to decide how long the extension will be, clearly won't.
If the extension comes back until 31/01 then I am not sure what other reassurances Corbyn could be given about ND being off the table.
We all know it is just about avoiding a GE which is why Abbott look so flummoxed when she was asked what Labour were actually looking for.
My feeling is their requirements will be deliberately unattainable so as to give Corbyn at least something to hide behind.
I think whether Labour wants to avoid an election will depend partly on whether postponing it and at the same time blocking the deal will improve or worsen their prospects. I would have thought the latter.
It is not just about improving or worsening it is also about volatility. If they are in for 215 MPs with a 5% chance of a majority in Dec 2019, but in for 185 MPs but with added volatility through events a 15% chance of a majority in Dec 2020 then they may think the expected loss of number MPs a price worth paying for a shot at the bigger prize of a majority.
Apropos of nothing except today is St Crispin's day and this is a wonderful bit of Shakespeare.
"We few, we happy few, we band of brothers; For he to-day that sheds his blood with me Shall be my brother; be he ne'er so vile, This day shall gentle his condition; And gentlemen in England now a-bed Shall think themselves accurs'd they were not here, And hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks That fought with us upon Saint Crispin's day."
So how is the PB Band of Brothers this wet St Crispin's evening?
I’m sorry to say but Corbyns position is falling apart on an election .
It’s impossible to rule out no deal at the end of the transition period unless Labour win an election .
Regardless of what law is passed now that can be changed in the future if the Tories win an election .
It’s impossible for this government to last until July 2020 which is the date at which any further extension to the transition period needs to be agreed by.
Johnson is playing stupid games but Labour aren’t exactly ones to moralize too much on this issue .
Macron is getting on many people’s nerves but he does have a point , clearly if no election is called soon it will then be impossible to have one before the end of January 2020.
And then the EU will have to put up with more Commons psychodrama .
Once the election attempt under the FTPA doesn't pass, is a second go then ruled out of order by Bercow upon hearing the EU extension news because he'd expect the "PM to be the law" ? Or is it allowed because we don't KNOW on Monday if the EU is going to grant an extension and hence the terms ?
It should be b) but I can see him saving Labour's bacon by going for i.
Anyway Labour is looking preposterous, the goalposts have been moved to Mars politically speaking.
The timing of the next election is under Corbyn's control more than Johnson's.
I expect it to be the VONC route rather than FTPA. VONC will see Johnson step down as PM and Corbyn become PM. I know he will be immediately VONCed but he will still be PM going into the election. It's a much better route that FTPA which leaves Johnson as PM.
This means it's going to take seven weeks minimum. A January election with Corbyn as PM.
Why not more honest than working for UK Pravda BBC unit. Helps us get some real news rather than the fake stuff we are used to.
There's a difference. RT is the mouthpiece of a fascist regime. However bad Westminster is -- and it's bad, no mistake -- it's not fascist or even close. Yes the BBC is a pile of shit. It's that bad I've cancelled my TV license cos I refuse to pay a penny for it. Yes it's narrow, biased, blind, deferential to elites and every so often racist. But there's a qualitative difference between the British and Russian governments they speak up for. I think Salmond has made a profound mistake in signing up with RT.
Apropos of nothing except today is St Crispin's day and this is a wonderful bit of Shakespeare.
"We few, we happy few, we band of brothers; For he to-day that sheds his blood with me Shall be my brother; be he ne'er so vile, This day shall gentle his condition; And gentlemen in England now a-bed Shall think themselves accurs'd they were not here, And hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks That fought with us upon Saint Crispin's day."
So how is the PB Band of Brothers this wet St Crispin's evening?
Why not more honest than working for UK Pravda BBC unit. Helps us get some real news rather than the fake stuff we are used to.
There's a difference. RT is the mouthpiece of a fascist regime. However bad Westminster is -- and it's bad, no mistake -- it's not fascist or even close. Yes the BBC is a pile of shit. It's that bad I've cancelled my TV license cos I refuse to pay a penny for it. Yes it's narrow, biased, blind, deferential to elites and every so often racist. But there's a qualitative difference between the British and Russian governments they speak up for. I think Salmond has made a profound mistake in signing up with RT.
Is he doing that at the moment? I would have thought he had other things on his mind given what’s coming up next month.
Apropos of nothing except today is St Crispin's day and this is a wonderful bit of Shakespeare.
"We few, we happy few, we band of brothers; For he to-day that sheds his blood with me Shall be my brother; be he ne'er so vile, This day shall gentle his condition; And gentlemen in England now a-bed Shall think themselves accurs'd they were not here, And hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks That fought with us upon Saint Crispin's day."
So how is the PB Band of Brothers this wet St Crispin's evening?
not sure about "holding their manhoods...."
Donald Trump spends much time holding his manhood if his twitter account is any guide. But I don’t think he sells it cheap.
Apropos of nothing except today is St Crispin's day and this is a wonderful bit of Shakespeare.
"We few, we happy few, we band of brothers; For he to-day that sheds his blood with me Shall be my brother; be he ne'er so vile, This day shall gentle his condition; And gentlemen in England now a-bed Shall think themselves accurs'd they were not here, And hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks That fought with us upon Saint Crispin's day."
So how is the PB Band of Brothers this wet St Crispin's evening?
not sure about "holding their manhoods...."
Tis quite a common practice I hear in parts of the South.
So, have the government stopped pouting and agreed to continue trying to see us Brexit even if denied an election, or are they still insisting that they love Brexit so much they will stop trying to Brexit in protest?
There's really no point in the government "trying to Brexit" as unless something significant occurs this remainer parliament will find whatever reasons, whatever devices and whatever procedures it needs to thwart Brexit. Trying to overcome such obstacles will be a waste of time.
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No, it demonstrates that Boris wants to Brexit but is being thwarted. That's a more powerful message than just saying that they till thwart you. Trying to overcome such obstacles is only a waste of time if the governments think it will fail, is unable to overcome them, and thus is an admission of weakness.
Particularly when the government's spin was they had the numbers to pass it, which would make them either weak now, or lying then.
Indeed, trying but failing to Brexit has helped Boris in the polls - he would be advised to continue that, rather than sulk, as it would help his polling even more.
That Boris wants to Brexit but is being thwarted has been demonstrated more than adequately already. The government knows it will fail to overcome the obstacles as has been proven with the Programme Motion this week. Winning the vote on the WAIB was pyrrhic as by the time the 3rd reading comes forward parliament will have found a reason to defeat it.
Apropos of nothing except today is St Crispin's day and this is a wonderful bit of Shakespeare.
"We few, we happy few, we band of brothers; For he to-day that sheds his blood with me Shall be my brother; be he ne'er so vile, This day shall gentle his condition; And gentlemen in England now a-bed Shall think themselves accurs'd they were not here, And hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks That fought with us upon Saint Crispin's day."
So how is the PB Band of Brothers this wet St Crispin's evening?
Cry God for England, Boris and no more extension! (at least beyond November)
I thought LDs have said very clearly they won't go into coalition with anyone.
And it's surely inconceivable they would ever go into coalition with SNP - given their views on the Union are the complete opposite.
If the numbers were there it's far more likely there would be a Lab Minority Govt with LD and SNP supporting on vote by vote basis.
1 - The LDs said that they would never increase student loans. Changing your mind is part of the horse trading necessary when trying to make government work
2 - The SNP will demand their 2nd referendum as part of any deal - whether formal or informal. Hard for the LDs to deny them that.
The LDs will stop both a Corbyn and Boris Premiership and indyref2 and Brexit as Swinson has made clear
I thought LDs have said very clearly they won't go into coalition with anyone.
And it's surely inconceivable they would ever go into coalition with SNP - given their views on the Union are the complete opposite.
If the numbers were there it's far more likely there would be a Lab Minority Govt with LD and SNP supporting on vote by vote basis.
1 - The LDs said that they would never increase student loans. Changing your mind is part of the horse trading necessary when trying to make government work
2 - The SNP will demand their 2nd referendum as part of any deal - whether formal or informal. Hard for the LDs to deny them that.
The LDs will block both a Corbyn Premiership and indyref2 as Swinson has made clear
It is not just about improving or worsening it is also about volatility. If they are in for 215 MPs with a 5% chance of a majority in Dec 2019, but in for 185 MPs but with added volatility through events a 15% chance of a majority in Dec 2020 then they may think the expected loss of number MPs a price worth paying for a shot at the bigger prize of a majority.
Exactly it. We can't win now but in a while perhaps we can. One in the bush beats two in the hand in this case.
I’m sorry to say but Corbyns position is falling apart on an election .
It’s impossible to rule out no deal at the end of the transition period unless Labour win an election .
Regardless of what law is passed now that can be changed in the future if the Tories win an election .
It’s impossible for this government to last until July 2020 which is the date at which any further extension to the transition period needs to be agreed by.
Johnson is playing stupid games but Labour aren’t exactly ones to moralize too much on this issue .
Macron is getting on many people’s nerves but he does have a point , clearly if no election is called soon it will then be impossible to have one before the end of January 2020.
And then the EU will have to put up with more Commons psychodrama .
Once the election attempt under the FTPA doesn't pass, is a second go then ruled out of order by Bercow upon hearing the EU extension news because he'd expect the "PM to be the law" ? Or is it allowed because we don't KNOW on Monday if the EU is going to grant an extension and hence the terms ?
It should be b) but I can see him saving Labour's bacon by going for i.
Anyway Labour is looking preposterous, the goalposts have been moved to Mars politically speaking.
Some seem to think Macron couldn’t care if there’s no deal by his current intransigence. However this belies the fact that what he wants the most is for the deal to go through .
Labour Remainers seem unable to understand what’s going on . Currently Macron is isolated amongst the 27 but if MPs don’t support an election on the 12 th of December or a bit earlier then his position won’t be isolated . He will say to the others look it’s clear that a longer extension is going to be a waste of time and MPs will drag this on and then another extension will be needed .
At which point more members will agree . Macron won’t veto an extension , regardless of the rhetoric coming out of Paris but a shorter extension is likely to be the end result.
After the May Deal and May extended the Brexit Party were polling about 20 to 25%+ and could have got 50 to 100 seats if not more.
With Boris and the Boris Deal though which more Leavers support than the May Deal and the refusal of Boris to ask for an extension himself, the Brexit Party are now polling at UKIP 2015 levels ie about 11% and unlikely to get more than the 1 seat UKIP got then
Presumably the risk to the Tories here is that once the Johnson deal becomes better understood there will be a move back towards BXP by those who rejected the May deal on grounds of perceived surrender of sovereignty and the inability of NI to leave fully - given that it still falls foul of those purity tests. Or maybe not - perhaps those objections are essentially driven by the spin machine that Johnson now owns, and BXP won’t be able to get the airtime any more.
Incidentally, this whole thing about Boris not asking for an extension: it does seem that you’re saying that he hasn’t complied with the Benn Act, which may become a bit problematic when the Scottish court reconvenes. Would your preference be for him to be found in contempt for not complying, or to not be found in contempt because the court is of the view that he did in fact comply by sending a letter seeking an extension?
There won't, as as long as GB leaves the EU, the single market and customs union most Leavers don't care if the backstop stays for Northern Ireland even if the DUP do.
The court can say what it wants, Boris has already won the political war as the polling shows as Leavers still back him and by next week it will be irrelevant anyway as the EU will already have decided the new extension date whether Macron vetoes a longer extension or not
You haven't answered the question.
HYUFD never does. He just posts something else in response.
I would still have liked to know his reasons for disregarding a court of law.
I would as well. I don't know whether you noticed but I actually 'liked' the question as I thought it a good point.
However HYFUD either, deliberately, or because he doesn't understand, does not do this. A while ago when IanB2 was frustrated by this I converted the conversation into mathematical logic connotation so as to show it was irrational and posted it.
HYFUD took it that I was criticising his style, which I do, but not in this case. He has a complete inability to argue a point. As I said that might be deliberate to wind people up, or he may just have not even the basic understanding of logic.
No, I just have better things to do to than to bow and scrape to pompous bores like you
Why not more honest than working for UK Pravda BBC unit. Helps us get some real news rather than the fake stuff we are used to.
There's a difference. RT is the mouthpiece of a fascist regime. However bad Westminster is -- and it's bad, no mistake -- it's not fascist or even close. Yes the BBC is a pile of shit. It's that bad I've cancelled my TV license cos I refuse to pay a penny for it. Yes it's narrow, biased, blind, deferential to elites and every so often racist. But there's a qualitative difference between the British and Russian governments they speak up for. I think Salmond has made a profound mistake in signing up with RT.
Big_G said: "Both of you are missing the point that the electoral commission would have to work out the wording to including no deal. As in everything brexit it is not as simple as it seems"
Why would No Deal have to be an option?
A constitutional expert clearly stated that any referendum has to include all options including no deal as the electoral commission have to be even handed with all opinions and there is considerable support for no deal
However, if someone can get a constitutional expert to disprove this I would be very interested to see their reasoning
‘No deal’ doesn't mean anything. Everyone who supports it has a different idea of what it means.
That is not democracy.
WAB is not a deal , just an exit plan whilst the "DEAL" discussion has yet to start, all complete bollox, whilst we pay 600+ wobbly jellies a fortune to be unable to make up their minds for fear of being ripped away from the trough.
SELL LD seats at 43 - I'm an LD, I'd love us to win 443 seats but that probably won't happen. The Party won 46 seats in 1997 on 18% of the vote and while some of those have been regained or are close (St Ives, Cheltenham Fife NE), I don't quite see where the rest come from and the party starts, let's be honest, at 13 not 18 or 19 despite the defections. A realistic number for me looks to be in the low 30s.
I agree that, sadly, the Lib Dems winning 443 seats is unlikely to happen!
As for 43... though it's a stretch, I wouldn't necessarily rule it out. Looking at http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat (which is crudely sorted by swing from 2017, but a useful starting point), there are seats in the 40s which the LDs certainly won't win, but also seats in the 60s which I think they might. There are also wildcards like Cities of London & Westminster and Finchley & Golders Green, which don't feature anywhere in this 100 but which are nonetheless in play.
(It would be fascinating to develop a crowdsourced prediction site which gathers PBers' local knowledge to make predictions for individual seats.)
So, have the government stopped pouting and agreed to continue trying to see us Brexit even if denied an election, or are they still insisting that they love Brexit so much they will stop trying to Brexit in protest?
There's really no point in the government "trying to Brexit" as unless something significant occurs this remainer parliament will find whatever reasons, whatever devices and whatever procedures it needs to thwart Brexit. Trying to overcome such obstacles will be a waste of time.
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No, it demonstrates that Boris wants to Brexit but is being thwarted. That's a more powerful message than just saying that they till thwart you. Trying to overcome such obstacles is only a waste of time if the governments think it will fail, is unable to overcome them, and thus is an admission of weakness.
Particularly when the government's spin was they had the numbers to pass it, which would make them either weak now, or lying then.
Indeed, trying but failing to Brexit has helped Boris in the polls - he would be advised to continue that, rather than sulk, as it would help his polling even more.
That Boris wants to Brexit but is being thwarted has been demonstrated more than adequately already. The government knows it will fail to overcome the obstacles as has been proven with the Programme Motion this week. Winning the vote on the WAIB was pyrrhic as by the time the 3rd reading comes forward parliament will have found a reason to defeat it.
All the Programme Motion proves is that a majority of MPs wanted more time to scrutinise it (some for that reason and some to thwart Brexit). Can't say how many of each.
Sure lots of people will believe that "Brexit is being thwarted has been demonstrated more than adequately already" but they are confirmed Tory voters; what about marginal voters?
Surely Boris's plan was to be a man with a plan which silly MPs blocked. Now he is failing to follow through on demonstrating this and looks like he is refusing to even try instead.
I’m afraid for Remainers that the so called alliance hasn’t amounted to much .
They might have put the brakes on no deal but have been inept at working out how to get another vote and even now when offered a chance re an election many Labour Remainers are still desperate to avoid reality .
The only way to a second vote is an election where Labour win , that’s still a tall order but better than the zero chance otherwise .
Bizarely Corbyn who wants an election turns out to be the Remainers last chance whilst the so called majority of pro second vote Labour MPs are intent on not having an election and thereby losing any chance of a chance to stop Brexit.
Comments
Unfortunately the EU not being able to decide how long the extension will be, clearly won't.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6d6M_yi_oHk
Edit: fixed the tweet link
And it's surely inconceivable they would ever go into coalition with SNP - given their views on the Union are the complete opposite.
If the numbers were there it's far more likely there would be a Lab Minority Govt with LD and SNP supporting on vote by vote basis.
But I don’t have his best interests at heart so I’m biased and don’t trust my instincts enough to bet on it.
Back to the topic, looking at the numbers (and if allowed to take positions based on the financial reserves of the big players on here).
BUY Conservative seats at 325 - IF the polls are right and the Conservatives lead by 12-15% a landslide is inevitable even if the vote is well distributed which it won't be. I could easily see if the Conservatives are polling in the high 30s with the opposition in the 20s the Conservatives winning close to 400 seats.
Labour: don't get involved - 209 was the historic post-war low for Labour in 1983 and while it's possible some unlikely Labour seats will go, the Tories ain't winning East Ham so I don't see much margin for a sell at 205.
SELL LD seats at 43 - I'm an LD, I'd love us to win 443 seats but that probably won't happen. The Party won 46 seats in 1997 on 18% of the vote and while some of those have been regained or are close (St Ives, Cheltenham Fife NE), I don't quite see where the rest come from and the party starts, let's be honest, at 13 not 18 or 19 despite the defections. A realistic number for me looks to be in the low 30s.
I don't know enough about Scottish or Welsh politics to have a view on the SNP and Plaid performances and I don't see the second Green seat though someone may have a better view on that.
We all know it is just about avoiding a GE which is why Abbott look so flummoxed when she was asked what Labour were actually looking for.
My feeling is their requirements will be deliberately unattainable so as to give Corbyn at least something to hide behind.
2 - The SNP will demand their 2nd referendum as part of any deal - whether formal or informal. Hard for the LDs to deny them that.
** smugly checks pasta supplies cupboard **
Frit. Frit. And more Frit
There would be a delicious irony in Corbyn, Swinson and Blackford causing an unnecessary no deal exit.
I ask the question because I think the Tory numbers will dip at some stage around and about an election off the back of a short run of tight polls. My problem is deciding who will look like the beneficiary....
The WA does not prevent or stop No deal - it postpones it and there have been plenty saying agreeing a comprehensive FTA with the EU in 12 months is impossible so we will be back to a further extension of transition sometime around July 2020.
Were we to have a Johnson majority Government at the time, his sheep would all vote as he tells them so they would rule out an extension and we could crash out on 31/12/20 at the end of transition.
While this Parliament could be bound by a guarantee not to exit transition without a comprehensive FTA in place, a future Parliament wouldn't be bound by it so Johnson wants his GE and his majority - it's long past being about the WA it's now about an FTA.
Very strong position for Macron now. If he can help the UK out of the EU he's in pole position to become the dominant force within it. Germany is enfeebled with a chancellor on her last legs politically, a parliament that's almost as divided and dysfunctional as ours and an economy that is clearly struggling. Macron will never have a better chance to progress his vision for the EU.
In his position, and with his apparent sense of destiny, why would he give the UK a further 3 months to fanny about unless there's a defined purpose e.g. a GE. It's quite clear that this remainer parliament will do whatever it takes to thwart Brexit, and Macron knows it. He wants us out, and unless he points a gun at this parliament it won't oblige him.
https://twitter.com/labour_first/status/1187730533742022657?s=21
You're 'frit' of HIM, though, aren't you?
As you say, what someone says BEFORE an election and what someone says AFTER are two different things.
You think Tories are frit? We'd love an election so that we can send the vampire of socialism back to its crypt for another generation and get on with running the country properly.
I'm assuming in that case it would be a rubber stamping exercise in Brussels which could be done this side of Christmas.
That would leave a January election.
Are you sure that's not what you meant?
No, don't answer that, let us assume it wasn't what you meant but you do ALSO think this, so as to get my question back into play -
Approximately how many of the 17 million do we think voted with a strong desire for us to trade with the EU on basic WTO terms rather than with a free trade deal?
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/brexit/production-of-brexit-50p-coin-paused-amid-exit-uncertainty/ar-AAJl5Es?ocid=spartanntp
Not sure whether they are taking something out or putting something in.
We’re not on Question Time and we’re not politicians - I’m happy to be honest.
Edit - There’s a difference between what I want and what I think will happen or others will do. I assume the latter is more interesting on a betting website. Surely none of us are here to convince each other - we’re here to make cash.
Edit two - I’m not superhuman and sometimes I’ll slip and fight an argument.
The only proper spreadbet I have had was selling the Iceland goal time when we played them in Euro 16.
The winnings put me off that type of betting.
...Vettel takes out Hamilton, Bottas and Leclerc at the start.
btw, the Renault engine might not be as effective this year, as it's said that they've shrunk the turbo in an effort to match Mercedes/Ferrari on the rest of the circuits.
Mexico is *special*.
There is a deal sat waiting to be passed and there is absolutely no good reason for the opposition to risk a no deal exit.
It would be lunacy...and would let the Tories off the hook for any subsequent negative consequences.
I am aware I got a leave result by voting alongside probably every racist in the country. I feel a bit dirty but I think the final end state will be something like EFTA/EEA. In fact in a perfect world I think us in EFTA would open the door to a much bigger EEA that spanned most of Europe and into bits of Asia and the Middle East.
It’s impossible to rule out no deal at the end of the transition period unless Labour win an election .
Regardless of what law is passed now that can be changed in the future if the Tories win an election .
It’s impossible for this government to last until July 2020 which is the date at which any further extension to the transition period needs to be agreed by.
Johnson is playing stupid games but Labour aren’t exactly ones to moralize too much on this issue .
Macron is getting on many people’s nerves but he does have a point , clearly if no election is called soon it will then be impossible to have one before the end of January 2020.
And then the EU will have to put up with more Commons psychodrama .
The LibDem total is also hard to predict. I'd tend to say that if the Tories are doing reasonably well, the number of LD seats is depressed, but it could be that Brexit has changed that. Local election results have shown that the 18-22% national support for the LDs is more unevenly distributed than it used to be, with levels more like 40% in south central England, where I expect them to achieve some big swings and several gains.
The 2nd Green seat might be the IOW, especially if BXP stand.
I took the 47 from Sporting Index,
Let's see how confident you are.
I'll sell at 40 - you buy at 40 - quid a seat?
I had imagined that you make all your pasta fresh.
The texts are so upsetting it is difficult to think of the agonies that young woman and her family suffered.
May she rest in peace
That all changes of course if Macron reduces the extension in the absence of the GE vote being carried on Monday.
Particularly when the government's spin was they had the numbers to pass it, which would make them either weak now, or lying then.
Indeed, trying but failing to Brexit has helped Boris in the polls - he would be advised to continue that, rather than sulk, as it would help his polling even more.
Or is it allowed because we don't KNOW on Monday if the EU is going to grant an extension and hence the terms ?
It should be b) but I can see him saving Labour's bacon by going for i.
Anyway Labour is looking preposterous, the goalposts have been moved to Mars politically speaking.
"We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
For he to-day that sheds his blood with me
Shall be my brother; be he ne'er so vile,
This day shall gentle his condition;
And gentlemen in England now a-bed
Shall think themselves accurs'd they were not here,
And hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks
That fought with us upon Saint Crispin's day."
So how is the PB Band of Brothers this wet St Crispin's evening?
I expect it to be the VONC route rather than FTPA. VONC will see Johnson step down as PM and Corbyn become PM. I know he will be immediately VONCed but he will still be PM going into the election. It's a much better route that FTPA which leaves Johnson as PM.
This means it's going to take seven weeks minimum. A January election with Corbyn as PM.
Yes the BBC is a pile of shit. It's that bad I've cancelled my TV license cos I refuse to pay a penny for it. Yes it's narrow, biased, blind, deferential to elites and every so often racist. But there's a qualitative difference between the British and Russian governments they speak up for. I think Salmond has made a profound mistake in signing up with RT.
Admittedly, he probably needs the money.
Or to put it another way -
https://youtu.be/rIE2GAqnFGw
Labour Remainers seem unable to understand what’s going on . Currently Macron is isolated amongst the 27 but if MPs don’t support an election on the 12 th of December or a bit earlier then his position won’t be isolated . He will say to the others look it’s clear that a longer extension is going to be a waste of time and MPs will drag this on and then another extension will be needed .
At which point more members will agree . Macron won’t veto an extension , regardless of the rhetoric coming out of Paris but a shorter extension is likely to be the end result.
As for 43... though it's a stretch, I wouldn't necessarily rule it out. Looking at http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat (which is crudely sorted by swing from 2017, but a useful starting point), there are seats in the 40s which the LDs certainly won't win, but also seats in the 60s which I think they might. There are also wildcards like Cities of London & Westminster and Finchley & Golders Green, which don't feature anywhere in this 100 but which are nonetheless in play.
(It would be fascinating to develop a crowdsourced prediction site which gathers PBers' local knowledge to make predictions for individual seats.)
Sure lots of people will believe that "Brexit is being thwarted has been demonstrated more than adequately already" but they are confirmed Tory voters; what about marginal voters?
Surely Boris's plan was to be a man with a plan which silly MPs blocked. Now he is failing to follow through on demonstrating this and looks like he is refusing to even try instead.
They might have put the brakes on no deal but have been inept at working out how to get another vote and even now when offered a chance re an election many Labour Remainers are still desperate to avoid reality .
The only way to a second vote is an election where Labour win , that’s still a tall order but better than the zero chance otherwise .
Bizarely Corbyn who wants an election turns out to be the Remainers last chance whilst the so called majority of pro second vote Labour MPs are intent on not having an election and thereby losing any chance of a chance to stop Brexit.