Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’m betting that Farage’s Brexit party will get fewer than

2456

Comments

  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    The EU should go for a long extension, to April 2023 or some such.

    31st November will be good enough for me
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,215

    The EU should go for a long extension, to April 2023 or some such.

    They might go for one till July 2022 - with the option to terminate at any time by the UK.
  • Pulpstar said:

    The EU should go for a long extension, to April 2023 or some such.

    They might go for one till July 2022 - with the option to terminate at any time by the UK.
    The French want a short technical extension.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    One of the defining themes of this week has been the government threatening to do something dramatic, before manifestly not carrying out that threat. We’ve had No. 10 sources claiming Boris Johnson would pull his Withdrawal Agreement Bill if MPs voted down the programme motion, only for the Prime Minister to announce he is ‘pausing’ it, before then making a bid to the Labour Party to resurrect the legislation with a longer timetable.

    We’ve also seen the demise of Johnson’s claim that he would rather be found ‘dead in a ditch’ than delay Brexit beyond 31 October. Though the Prime Minister hasn’t openly acknowledged that he’s missing the deadline, his 12 December election bid was an attempt to move the conversation straight past an awkward admission.

    we are rapidly entering the territory of a government crying wolf while trying to look in control.


    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/10/number-10-drops-its-threat-to-go-on-strike/
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    What if Johnson and Macron are colluding to force parliament to revoke?
  • What if Johnson and Macron are colluding to force parliament to revoke?
    Keep dreaming - even this Remainer Parliament ain't revoking.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    The Tories bear a high share of responsibility for the present impasse which owes a lot to their decision to choose such a compulsive liar as their leader. Few trust him.

    As opposed to Labour who have chosen the most untrustworthy and unpopular leader of the opposition since the War
    Regardless of his lack of popularity, Corbyn is not viewed as a compulsive liar - not even by his opponents.
    No, he's viewed as a racist supporter of terrorists and terrorism by his opponents.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Pulpstar said:

    The EU should go for a long extension, to April 2023 or some such.

    They might go for one till July 2022 - with the option to terminate at any time by the UK.
    The French want a short technical extension.
    https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1187728547462500352?s=21
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Pulpstar said:

    The EU should go for a long extension, to April 2023 or some such.

    They might go for one till July 2022 - with the option to terminate at any time by the UK.
    The French want a short technical extension.
    https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1187728547462500352?s=21
    Perhaps if they don’t get what they want they'll just veto?
  • Pulpstar said:

    The EU should go for a long extension, to April 2023 or some such.

    They might go for one till July 2022 - with the option to terminate at any time by the UK.
    The French want a short technical extension.
    https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1187728547462500352?s=21
    Stock up on canned goods
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    The EU should go for a long extension, to April 2023 or some such.

    I thought that they would go for an extension to the end of the original transition period. But I was wrong. I don't think there's been any talk, informally from EU sources, of an extension longer than January 31st since Johnson requested the extension.

    They've agreed two different deals with us. They don't understand why we're incapable of getting on with it (or decisively changing our minds not to do it). They want it over.

    They certainly do not want another UK government turning up in Brussels trying to start another renegotiation of the Withdrawal Agreement. This is something that a long extension would invite.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited October 2019
    Macron clearly wants rid of us.

    Logically if Parliament agrees to an election then an extension to 31 January makes sense.

    If Parliament rejects an election then nothing is going to change so Macron should veto the extension, or give just a week extra to pass the deal.
  • Putin loving it. Well done all useful idiots helping him.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616

    The EU should go for a long extension, to April 2023 or some such.

    I thought that they would go for an extension to the end of the original transition period. But I was wrong. I don't think there's been any talk, informally from EU sources, of an extension longer than January 31st since Johnson requested the extension.

    They've agreed two different deals with us. They don't understand why we're incapable of getting on with it (or decisively changing our minds not to do it). They want it over.

    They certainly do not want another UK government turning up in Brussels trying to start another renegotiation of the Withdrawal Agreement. This is something that a long extension would invite.
    31st January isn't Johnson's extension. It's a shite Benn Act compromise because anything longer wouldn't have got HoC support, but it kills the chance of a second referendum so there's still a big chunk of MPs who feel frustrated. But by their own actions. Pillocks.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The EU should go for a long extension, to April 2023 or some such.

    They might go for one till July 2022 - with the option to terminate at any time by the UK.
    The French want a short technical extension.
    https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1187728547462500352?s=21
    Perhaps if they don’t get what they want they'll just veto?
    https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1187731851387064320?s=20
  • Pulpstar said:

    The EU should go for a long extension, to April 2023 or some such.

    They might go for one till July 2022 - with the option to terminate at any time by the UK.
    The French want a short technical extension.
    https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1187728547462500352?s=21
    We had this last time, it is yet more theatre.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The EU should go for a long extension, to April 2023 or some such.

    They might go for one till July 2022 - with the option to terminate at any time by the UK.
    The French want a short technical extension.
    https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1187728547462500352?s=21
    Perhaps if they don’t get what they want they'll just veto?
    Get the MPs back for a weekend sitting to go through the Boris Deal. As a precaution against No Deal.

    Then let's see how much scrutiny they want to give it. And no, they won't have the rugby on in the bars.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The EU should go for a long extension, to April 2023 or some such.

    They might go for one till July 2022 - with the option to terminate at any time by the UK.
    The French want a short technical extension.
    https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1187728547462500352?s=21
    Perhaps if they don’t get what they want they'll just veto?
    https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1187731851387064320?s=20
    HMG and the French government are of one mind.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    MarqueeMark said: " 31st January isn't Johnson's extension. It's a shite Benn Act compromise because anything longer wouldn't have got HoC support, but it kills the chance of a second referendum so there's still a big chunk of MPs who feel frustrated. But by their own actions. Pillocks."

    Government are on the back foot and I wonder whether this may end up in a deal with opposition parties for a GE + confirmatory referendum (or vice versa).
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    Pulpstar said:

    The EU should go for a long extension, to April 2023 or some such.

    They might go for one till July 2022 - with the option to terminate at any time by the UK.
    The French want a short technical extension.
    https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1187728547462500352?s=21
    We had this last time, it is yet more theatre.
    End up with no extension, announced mid morning on Tuesday 29th, giving 2.5 days to get WA through parliament.

    That is highly unlikely but would be highly amusing on one or two levels.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,003
    edited October 2019

    Don't think he's quite thought through his own acquiescence in 'sexual harassment and assault allegations that have been deliberately sat upon by people on power'.

    https://twitter.com/JohnMannMP/status/1187490790764957696?s=20
    Stupid ****.

    Not that stupid if he still has Parliamentary privilege for his accusations.

    Might be a few MPs not seeking re-election?
    I thought that only applied to to speaking in parliament? 'Letters' sounds pretty solidly defamatory unless very well founded (his own arse-sitting on these allegations notwithstanding).
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The EU should go for a long extension, to April 2023 or some such.

    They might go for one till July 2022 - with the option to terminate at any time by the UK.
    The French want a short technical extension.
    https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1187728547462500352?s=21
    Perhaps if they don’t get what they want they'll just veto?
    https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1187731851387064320?s=20
    HMG and the French government are of one mind.
    Boris Johnson is collaborating with the French.

    Lock the traitor up.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,215
    I wonder how close to a breakdown some MPs are over all this. Labour leavers are under two sets of immense pressure in particular.

    Crying through the Aye lobby on third reading anyone ?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The EU should go for a long extension, to April 2023 or some such.

    They might go for one till July 2022 - with the option to terminate at any time by the UK.
    The French want a short technical extension.
    Perhaps if they don’t get what they want they'll just veto?
    https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1187731851387064320?s=20
    The word justified is the relevant term.

    I take that to mean agree the election and it will be 31/01, otherwise November sometime.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,132
    edited October 2019
    It looks as if Macron is digging in. No extension without a purpose.

    Boris wants the deal passed unamended and/or a GE. Clear and concise

    However, I understand that the EU have taken to Boris as someone they can do business with and in particular a friendship has grown between Boris and Macron

    The EU are becoming increasingly frustrated with Corbyn and in the end I expect they will confirm a short extension to mid November to pass the deal or the option to the 31st January to hold a GE.

    They will not let this 'game playing' continue, they have very big problems themselves and I believe they are now ready to cut us adrift and move on

    I also genuinely believe labour are causing immense damage to their brand and should the SNP and Lib Dems move to back a GE with the proviso that if it does not get the 434 needed they will support a one line motion for the GE and without delaying amendments

    The winners in that scenario are the SNP, Lib Dems and Boris with labour holed below the waterline

    Of course it may not happen but if the SNP and Lib Dems take this opportunity they should benefit with considerable increased support
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    philiph said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The EU should go for a long extension, to April 2023 or some such.

    They might go for one till July 2022 - with the option to terminate at any time by the UK.
    The French want a short technical extension.
    https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1187728547462500352?s=21
    We had this last time, it is yet more theatre.
    End up with no extension, announced mid morning on Tuesday 29th, giving 2.5 days to get WA through parliament.

    That is highly unlikely but would be highly amusing on one or two levels.
    Doesn’t the WA still need to be ratified by the European Parliament as well?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Macron clearly wants rid of us.

    Logically if Parliament agrees to an election then an extension to 31 January makes sense.

    If Parliament rejects an election then nothing is going to change so Macron should veto the extension, or give just a week extra to pass the deal.

    The one thing that will most annoy the French would be if we were to revoke Article 50.
  • An hour after sunset on 29th February would seem to be appropriate for a leap in the dark.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The EU should go for a long extension, to April 2023 or some such.

    They might go for one till July 2022 - with the option to terminate at any time by the UK.
    The French want a short technical extension.
    https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1187728547462500352?s=21
    Perhaps if they don’t get what they want they'll just veto?
    https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1187731851387064320?s=20
    HMG and the French government are of one mind.
    Boris Johnson is collaborating with the French.

    Lock the traitor up.
    Hang on, I thought you loved the Europeans controlling our affairs?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    edited October 2019
    I really wish French officials would stop talking nonsense .

    Are we really supposed to believe Macron against the 26 other EU leaders is going to veto an extension.

    Throwing Ireland under a bus and causing economic problems for other member states.

    Macron is seriously beginning to piss off the rest of the EU with his showboating .
  • Pulpstar said:

    The EU should go for a long extension, to April 2023 or some such.

    They might go for one till July 2022 - with the option to terminate at any time by the UK.
    The French want a short technical extension.
    https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1187728547462500352?s=21
    We had this last time, it is yet more theatre.
    Don't bank on it
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The EU should go for a long extension, to April 2023 or some such.

    They might go for one till July 2022 - with the option to terminate at any time by the UK.
    The French want a short technical extension.
    https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1187728547462500352?s=21
    Perhaps if they don’t get what they want they'll just veto?
    https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1187731851387064320?s=20
    HMG and the French government are of one mind.
    Boris Johnson is collaborating with the French.

    Lock the traitor up.
    I always knew the French were jolly good eggs.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Polruan said:

    philiph said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The EU should go for a long extension, to April 2023 or some such.

    They might go for one till July 2022 - with the option to terminate at any time by the UK.
    The French want a short technical extension.
    https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1187728547462500352?s=21
    We had this last time, it is yet more theatre.
    End up with no extension, announced mid morning on Tuesday 29th, giving 2.5 days to get WA through parliament.

    That is highly unlikely but would be highly amusing on one or two levels.
    Doesn’t the WA still need to be ratified by the European Parliament as well?
    Yes, I think it will have to. I'm sure they can ratify and backdate to our date :)

    Still, not going to happen on Oct 31.
  • nico67 said:

    I really wish French officials would stop talking nonsense .

    Are we really supposed to believe Macron against the 26 other EU leaders is going to veto an extension.

    Throwing Ireland under a bus and causing economic problems for other member states.

    Macron is seriously beginning to piss off the rest of the EU with his showboating .

    It is probably agreed with the EU leaders that Macron gets to play the tough guy. Good for his domestic audience and encourages the UK to believe the EU might reject a future extension. It is just theatre, the EU will not choose no deal.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited October 2019
    Scott_P said:
    Which implies if the purpose doesn't warrant the timescale the timescale can be adjusted to suit the purpose.

    So all agreed except it can all change.
  • Pulpstar said:

    I wonder how close to a breakdown some MPs are over all this. Labour leavers are under two sets of immense pressure in particular.

    Crying through the Aye lobby on third reading anyone ?

    The stress must be unbearable

    However, they decided to play games with the second reading and programme motion in a move designed to change the deal to a customs union and referendum, but how it has backfired

    In both TM deal and Boris's they tried to be too clever and how they must now be regretting their decisions
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,132
    edited October 2019

    An hour after sunset on 29th February would seem to be appropriate for a leap in the dark.

    And on my birthday
  • Pulpstar said:

    I wonder how close to a breakdown some MPs are over all this. Labour leavers are under two sets of immense pressure in particular.

    Crying through the Aye lobby on third reading anyone ?

    The stress must be unbearable

    However, they decided to play games with the second reading and programme motion in a move designed to change the deal to a customs union and referendum, but how it has backfired

    In both TM deal and Boris's they tried to be too clever and how they must now be regretting their decisions
    Scrutiny was not about customs union or referendum, as those never had the votes to win. Im not sure either would have got within 20.

    It was about parliamanetary oversight of the future FTA, which dear leader felt was an affront to his power so threw his toys out of the pram.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited October 2019
    nico67 said:

    I really wish French officials would stop talking nonsense .

    Are we really supposed to believe Macron against the 26 other EU leaders is going to veto an extension.

    Throwing Ireland under a bus and causing economic problems for other member states.

    Macron is seriously beginning to piss off the rest of the EU with his showboating .

    Yes Macron would go against 26 others
    Probably wouldn't throw Ireland under a bus.
    I didn't think Brexit caused economic issues for other EU states.
    Macron wants the French vision of the EU to be dominate the EU for the next phase of it development.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Prisoners can't vote, so locking up 71% of Leave voters for GBH should ensure a handy victory for Remain in the second referendum. Can't believe no-one thought of it before.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,215
    It's very clear Macron wants us, by hook or crook, OUT.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605

    Pulpstar said:

    I wonder how close to a breakdown some MPs are over all this. Labour leavers are under two sets of immense pressure in particular.

    Crying through the Aye lobby on third reading anyone ?

    The stress must be unbearable

    However, they decided to play games with the second reading and programme motion in a move designed to change the deal to a customs union and referendum, but how it has backfired

    In both TM deal and Boris's they tried to be too clever and how they must now be regretting their decisions
    I wonder how close to a breakdown the PM is over all this.

    The stress must be unbearable

    However, he decided to play games with the second reading and programme motion in a move designed bulldoze the WAB through with inadequate scrutiny but how it has backfired

    In both TM deal and Boris's they tried to be too clever and how they must now be regretting their decisions
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    philiph said:

    nico67 said:

    I really wish French officials would stop talking nonsense .

    Are we really supposed to believe Macron against the 26 other EU leaders is going to veto an extension.

    Throwing Ireland under a bus and causing economic problems for other member states.

    Macron is seriously beginning to piss off the rest of the EU with his showboating .

    Yes Macron would go against 26 others
    Probably wouldn't throw Ireland under a bus.
    I didn't think Brexit caused economic issues for other EU states.
    Macron wants the French vision of the EU to be dominant the EU for the next phase of it development.
    Changing the official language, for starters.
  • Pulpstar said:

    It's very clear Macron wants us, by hook or crook, OUT.

    Of course he does, Boris conceded on key demands, its a good deal for the EU, yes they want it signed before we change our minds.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    edited October 2019
    Stocky said:

    Government are on the back foot and I wonder whether this may end up in a deal with opposition parties for a GE + confirmatory referendum (or vice versa).

    I don't see Ref2 myself but at least it does work now as a proposition (setting aside the question of whether it is 'democratic' or not). Why? Because we now have a Leave option - the Boris Deal - which is deliverable AND backed by Leavers. That against Remain would be a legitimate match-up where both sides would have a decent chance of winning. We're talking Federer Nadal on a hard court.
  • Prisoners can't vote, so locking up 71% of Leave voters for GBH should ensure a handy victory for Remain in the second referendum. Can't believe no-one thought of it before.
    As long as Sturgeon's locked up for sedition I'm not picking any sides in this civil war.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I wonder how close to a breakdown some MPs are over all this. Labour leavers are under two sets of immense pressure in particular.

    Crying through the Aye lobby on third reading anyone ?

    The stress must be unbearable

    However, they decided to play games with the second reading and programme motion in a move designed to change the deal to a customs union and referendum, but how it has backfired

    In both TM deal and Boris's they tried to be too clever and how they must now be regretting their decisions
    I wonder how close to a breakdown the PM is over all this.

    The stress must be unbearable

    However, he decided to play games with the second reading and programme motion in a move designed bulldoze the WAB through with inadequate scrutiny but how it has backfired

    In both TM deal and Boris's they tried to be too clever and how they must now be regretting their decisions
    Probably further away from one than you are?
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    Pulpstar said:

    I wonder how close to a breakdown some MPs are over all this. Labour leavers are under two sets of immense pressure in particular.

    Crying through the Aye lobby on third reading anyone ?

    The stress must be unbearable

    However, they decided to play games with the second reading and programme motion in a move designed to change the deal to a customs union and referendum, but how it has backfired

    In both TM deal and Boris's they tried to be too clever and how they must now be regretting their decisions
    Although parliamentary process and game playing are always going to go together as long as we have the current adversarial system, I don’t think it’s fair or accurate to describe as ‘too clever’ MPs wanting time to understand and seek to amend the massive executive power grab set out in the WAB, and to insist on tighter protections in relation to the no-deal cliff edge being legislated for Dec 2020.

    Legislation has consequences and bad legislation done in a hurry has bad unforeseen consequences - something that we are all discussing every day as a result of the FTPA, for example.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    Pulpstar said:

    It's very clear Macron wants us, by hook or crook, OUT.

    I think that if the election gets voted down the extension is going to be a fortnight tops - it's deal or no deal, up to you Jeremy.
  • RobD said:

    philiph said:

    nico67 said:

    I really wish French officials would stop talking nonsense .

    Are we really supposed to believe Macron against the 26 other EU leaders is going to veto an extension.

    Throwing Ireland under a bus and causing economic problems for other member states.

    Macron is seriously beginning to piss off the rest of the EU with his showboating .

    Yes Macron would go against 26 others
    Probably wouldn't throw Ireland under a bus.
    I didn't think Brexit caused economic issues for other EU states.
    Macron wants the French vision of the EU to be dominant the EU for the next phase of it development.
    Changing the official language, for starters.
    German is more widely understood than French across the modern EU.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Polruan said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I wonder how close to a breakdown some MPs are over all this. Labour leavers are under two sets of immense pressure in particular.

    Crying through the Aye lobby on third reading anyone ?

    The stress must be unbearable

    However, they decided to play games with the second reading and programme motion in a move designed to change the deal to a customs union and referendum, but how it has backfired

    In both TM deal and Boris's they tried to be too clever and how they must now be regretting their decisions
    Although parliamentary process and game playing are always going to go together as long as we have the current adversarial system, I don’t think it’s fair or accurate to describe as ‘too clever’ MPs wanting time to understand and seek to amend the massive executive power grab set out in the WAB, and to insist on tighter protections in relation to the no-deal cliff edge being legislated for Dec 2020.

    Legislation has consequences and bad legislation done in a hurry has bad unforeseen consequences - something that we are all discussing every day as a result of the FTPA, for example.
    Regrettably a lot of very bad legislation is done slowly as well.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    EICIPM Forecast


    Con 299
    Lab 255
    LD 21
    PC 4
    SNP 51
    Grn 1
    BXP 1
    NI 18

    BREXIT IS BUGGERED
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124

    The EU should go for a long extension, to April 2023 or some such.

    If parliament passed that, HMG would revoke and retrigger A50 to cut 18 months off
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,215
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    It's very clear Macron wants us, by hook or crook, OUT.

    I think that if the election gets voted down the extension is going to be a fortnight tops - it's deal or no deal, up to you Jeremy.
    He'd love "No Deal" !!!!!! :o :O :O ! :o
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    It's very clear Macron wants us, by hook or crook, OUT.

    I think that if the election gets voted down the extension is going to be a fortnight tops - it's deal or no deal, up to you Jeremy.
    Shit Tory Deal please
  • Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I wonder how close to a breakdown some MPs are over all this. Labour leavers are under two sets of immense pressure in particular.

    Crying through the Aye lobby on third reading anyone ?

    The stress must be unbearable

    However, they decided to play games with the second reading and programme motion in a move designed to change the deal to a customs union and referendum, but how it has backfired

    In both TM deal and Boris's they tried to be too clever and how they must now be regretting their decisions
    I wonder how close to a breakdown the PM is over all this.

    The stress must be unbearable

    However, he decided to play games with the second reading and programme motion in a move designed bulldoze the WAB through with inadequate scrutiny but how it has backfired

    In both TM deal and Boris's they tried to be too clever and how they must now be regretting their decisions
    Messing with my posts is not very original. It is verging on plagiarism
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    philiph said:

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I wonder how close to a breakdown some MPs are over all this. Labour leavers are under two sets of immense pressure in particular.

    Crying through the Aye lobby on third reading anyone ?

    The stress must be unbearable

    However, they decided to play games with the second reading and programme motion in a move designed to change the deal to a customs union and referendum, but how it has backfired

    In both TM deal and Boris's they tried to be too clever and how they must now be regretting their decisions
    I wonder how close to a breakdown the PM is over all this.

    The stress must be unbearable

    However, he decided to play games with the second reading and programme motion in a move designed bulldoze the WAB through with inadequate scrutiny but how it has backfired

    In both TM deal and Boris's they tried to be too clever and how they must now be regretting their decisions
    Probably further away from one than you are?
    :) I'm really very relaxed and enjoying this. Better than a box set. My bets generally are green. I'm loving it actually. Can't wait for the GE, knocking on doors.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    It’s pretty clear what the French want .

    A way to end this . If an election happens they expect Johnson to win and so the deal goes through .

    If there’s no sign of an election then the deal gets ratified otherwise it’s no deal .

    Not sure this is particularly controversial.
  • kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    Government are on the back foot and I wonder whether this may end up in a deal with opposition parties for a GE + confirmatory referendum (or vice versa).

    I don't see Ref2 myself but at least it does work now as a proposition (setting aside the question of whether it is 'democratic' or not). Why? Because we now have a Leave option - the Boris Deal - which is deliverable AND backed by Leavers. That against Remain would be a legitimate match-up where both sides would have a decent chance of winning. We're talking Federer Nadal on a hard court.
    No deal is and will be the third choice as confirmed by a consitutional expert recently. The electoral commission has to assess the wording and the referendum must include all opinions. TBP has 29 meps and 5 million plus votes (not any of mine) and their sole policy is no deal
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    It's very clear Macron wants us, by hook or crook, OUT.

    I think that if the election gets voted down the extension is going to be a fortnight tops - it's deal or no deal, up to you Jeremy.
    It's no deal or revoke, up to you Boris.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    Barnesian said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    It's very clear Macron wants us, by hook or crook, OUT.

    I think that if the election gets voted down the extension is going to be a fortnight tops - it's deal or no deal, up to you Jeremy.
    It's no deal or revoke, up to you Boris.
    You want to give him that choice?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Inclined to agree with the premise of the thread. Farage has shown a remarkable capacity to underperform at FPTP elections and to fail to learn from the repeated mistakes.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I wonder how close to a breakdown some MPs are over all this. Labour leavers are under two sets of immense pressure in particular.

    Crying through the Aye lobby on third reading anyone ?

    The stress must be unbearable

    However, they decided to play games with the second reading and programme motion in a move designed to change the deal to a customs union and referendum, but how it has backfired

    In both TM deal and Boris's they tried to be too clever and how they must now be regretting their decisions
    I wonder how close to a breakdown the PM is over all this.

    The stress must be unbearable

    However, he decided to play games with the second reading and programme motion in a move designed bulldoze the WAB through with inadequate scrutiny but how it has backfired

    In both TM deal and Boris's they tried to be too clever and how they must now be regretting their decisions
    Messing with my posts is not very original. It is verging on plagiarism
    It's a mirror designed to show there are always two sides to an argument.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    Bit of an uptick for Harris in South Carolina - back up at 11%, as Biden's lock on the state continues gradually to erode very slowly.

    It's not earth shattering, but the first piece of positive news for her in a while.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    edited October 2019
    Kinabalu said: "I don't see Ref2 myself but at least it does work now as a proposition. Why? Because we now have a Leave option - the Boris Deal - which is deliverable AND backed by Leavers. That against Remain would be a legitimate match-up"

    That`s a good point - now we have a Leave option - i.e. a method of leaving which Brexiters can support and therefore counts as leaving.

    The problem is that it will get amended and I suspect that remainer MPs will craft amendments deliberately to make Boris`s deal no longer attractive to Brexiter MPs!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Inclined to agree with the premise of the thread. Farage has shown a remarkable capacity to underperform at FPTP elections and to fail to learn from the repeated mistakes.

    Dry but cold and overcast in Mexico, P1 about to get underway.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I wonder how close to a breakdown some MPs are over all this. Labour leavers are under two sets of immense pressure in particular.

    Crying through the Aye lobby on third reading anyone ?

    The stress must be unbearable

    However, they decided to play games with the second reading and programme motion in a move designed to change the deal to a customs union and referendum, but how it has backfired

    In both TM deal and Boris's they tried to be too clever and how they must now be regretting their decisions
    I wonder how close to a breakdown the PM is over all this.

    The stress must be unbearable

    However, he decided to play games with the second reading and programme motion in a move designed bulldoze the WAB through with inadequate scrutiny but how it has backfired

    In both TM deal and Boris's they tried to be too clever and how they must now be regretting their decisions
    Messing with my posts is not very original. It is verging on plagiarism
    https://www.plagiarism.org/blog/2018/07/24/why-isnt-parody-considered-plagiarism
  • Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I wonder how close to a breakdown some MPs are over all this. Labour leavers are under two sets of immense pressure in particular.

    Crying through the Aye lobby on third reading anyone ?

    The stress must be unbearable

    However, they decided to play games with the second reading and programme motion in a move designed to change the deal to a customs union and referendum, but how it has backfired

    In both TM deal and Boris's they tried to be too clever and how they must now be regretting their decisions
    I wonder how close to a breakdown the PM is over all this.

    The stress must be unbearable

    However, he decided to play games with the second reading and programme motion in a move designed bulldoze the WAB through with inadequate scrutiny but how it has backfired

    In both TM deal and Boris's they tried to be too clever and how they must now be regretting their decisions
    Messing with my posts is not very original. It is verging on plagiarism
    It's a mirror designed to show there are always two sides to an argument.
    You could try to be more original
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    Sandpit said:

    Barnesian said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    It's very clear Macron wants us, by hook or crook, OUT.

    I think that if the election gets voted down the extension is going to be a fortnight tops - it's deal or no deal, up to you Jeremy.
    It's no deal or revoke, up to you Boris.
    You want to give him that choice?
    Yes I'd love to. In practice he'd ask for another extension which would be granted. But I'd certainly call his bluff.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Sandpit, I'd forgotten how late Mexico starts. It's 7pm for qualifying and just after (the following day, of course) for the race.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I wonder how close to a breakdown some MPs are over all this. Labour leavers are under two sets of immense pressure in particular.

    Crying through the Aye lobby on third reading anyone ?

    The stress must be unbearable

    However, they decided to play games with the second reading and programme motion in a move designed to change the deal to a customs union and referendum, but how it has backfired

    In both TM deal and Boris's they tried to be too clever and how they must now be regretting their decisions
    I wonder how close to a breakdown the PM is over all this.

    The stress must be unbearable

    However, he decided to play games with the second reading and programme motion in a move designed bulldoze the WAB through with inadequate scrutiny but how it has backfired

    In both TM deal and Boris's they tried to be too clever and how they must now be regretting their decisions
    Messing with my posts is not very original. It is verging on plagiarism
    :D You pompous old fart
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    rpjs said:

    Don't think he's quite thought through his own acquiescence in 'sexual harassment and assault allegations that have been deliberately sat upon by people on power'.

    https://twitter.com/JohnMannMP/status/1187490790764957696?s=20
    Stupid ****.

    Not that stupid if he still has Parliamentary privilege for his accusations.

    Might be a few MPs not seeking re-election?
    I thought Parliamentary privilege only applies to statements made in the chamber. Subsequent dissemination in print / writing would be covered, but if he just writes letters without first making the allegations in the Commons he wouldn't be.
    It depends who he writes the letters to and how. No one would or could be held liable for writing, without malice, to the police, for example, if they had legitimate reason to believe an offence had been committed - that would merit public interest privilege. If the person has a duty to recipients and the recipients have an interest in receiving the letter then that would merit qualified privilege. Absolute privilege also attaches to papers circulated by order of the House.

    Writing to a newspaper is a completely different kettle of fish of course.
  • Stocky said:

    Kinabalu said: "I don't see Ref2 myself but at least it does work now as a proposition. Why? Because we now have a Leave option - the Boris Deal - which is deliverable AND backed by Leavers. That against Remain would be a legitimate match-up"

    That`s a good point - now we have a Leave option - i.e. a method of leaving which Brexiters can support and therefore counts as leaving.

    The problem is that it will get amended and I suspect that remainer MPs will craft amendments deliberately to make Boris`s deal no longer attractive to Brexiter MPs!

    Both of you are missing the point that the electoral commission would have to work out the wording to including no deal. As in everything brexit it is not as simple as it seems
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    Noo said:

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I wonder how close to a breakdown some MPs are over all this. Labour leavers are under two sets of immense pressure in particular.

    Crying through the Aye lobby on third reading anyone ?

    The stress must be unbearable

    However, they decided to play games with the second reading and programme motion in a move designed to change the deal to a customs union and referendum, but how it has backfired

    In both TM deal and Boris's they tried to be too clever and how they must now be regretting their decisions
    I wonder how close to a breakdown the PM is over all this.

    The stress must be unbearable

    However, he decided to play games with the second reading and programme motion in a move designed bulldoze the WAB through with inadequate scrutiny but how it has backfired

    In both TM deal and Boris's they tried to be too clever and how they must now be regretting their decisions
    Messing with my posts is not very original. It is verging on plagiarism
    :D You pompous old fart
    :D I thought that too, but I'm too polite to say it.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Barnesian said:

    philiph said:

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I wonder how close to a breakdown some MPs are over all this. Labour leavers are under two sets of immense pressure in particular.

    Crying through the Aye lobby on third reading anyone ?

    The stress must be unbearable

    However, they decided to play games with the second reading and programme motion in a move designed to change the deal to a customs union and referendum, but how it has backfired

    In both TM deal and Boris's they tried to be too clever and how they must now be regretting their decisions
    I wonder how close to a breakdown the PM is over all this.

    The stress must be unbearable

    However, he decided to play games with the second reading and programme motion in a move designed bulldoze the WAB through with inadequate scrutiny but how it has backfired

    In both TM deal and Boris's they tried to be too clever and how they must now be regretting their decisions
    Probably further away from one than you are?
    :) I'm really very relaxed and enjoying this. Better than a box set. My bets generally are green. I'm loving it actually. Can't wait for the GE, knocking on doors.
    I guess you should either give up knocking on doors or stop insinuating people are on the verge of a breakdown if you want to rescue any shred of credibility or be of use while knocking on doors.

    Life is generally better than a box set.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I wonder how close to a breakdown some MPs are over all this. Labour leavers are under two sets of immense pressure in particular.

    Crying through the Aye lobby on third reading anyone ?

    The stress must be unbearable

    However, they decided to play games with the second reading and programme motion in a move designed to change the deal to a customs union and referendum, but how it has backfired

    In both TM deal and Boris's they tried to be too clever and how they must now be regretting their decisions
    I wonder how close to a breakdown the PM is over all this.

    The stress must be unbearable

    However, he decided to play games with the second reading and programme motion in a move designed bulldoze the WAB through with inadequate scrutiny but how it has backfired

    In both TM deal and Boris's they tried to be too clever and how they must now be regretting their decisions
    Messing with my posts is not very original. It is verging on plagiarism
    Don't be absurd.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627

    Mr. Sandpit, I'd forgotten how late Mexico starts. It's 7pm for qualifying and just after (the following day, of course) for the race.

    Yes, and USA will be the same times next weekend. Brazil's a couple of hours earlier. Abu Dhabi is of course at usual European race times, but the race starts as dusk local time - and I'll be there! :D
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,215
    Lol, more SO24 nonsense. Letwin's last mad plan has pushed us closer to "No deal" than everyone would like.
  • Brom said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The EU should go for a long extension, to April 2023 or some such.

    They might go for one till July 2022 - with the option to terminate at any time by the UK.
    The French want a short technical extension.
    https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1187728547462500352?s=21
    Perhaps if they don’t get what they want they'll just veto?
    https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1187731851387064320?s=20
    HMG and the French government are of one mind.
    Boris Johnson is collaborating with the French.

    Lock the traitor up.
    Hang on, I thought you loved the Europeans controlling our affairs?
    Fake News, the EU is like the Seventh Coalition with us at the heart of it, cf the creation of the Single Market and the Eastern expansion, all British ideas.

    Leavers like you are the modern day Halifaxes.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    philiph said:

    Barnesian said:

    philiph said:

    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I wonder how close to a breakdown some MPs are over all this. Labour leavers are under two sets of immense pressure in particular.

    Crying through the Aye lobby on third reading anyone ?

    The stress must be unbearable

    However, they decided to play games with the second reading and programme motion in a move designed to change the deal to a customs union and referendum, but how it has backfired

    In both TM deal and Boris's they tried to be too clever and how they must now be regretting their decisions
    I wonder how close to a breakdown the PM is over all this.

    The stress must be unbearable

    However, he decided to play games with the second reading and programme motion in a move designed bulldoze the WAB through with inadequate scrutiny but how it has backfired

    In both TM deal and Boris's they tried to be too clever and how they must now be regretting their decisions
    Probably further away from one than you are?
    :) I'm really very relaxed and enjoying this. Better than a box set. My bets generally are green. I'm loving it actually. Can't wait for the GE, knocking on doors.
    I guess you should either give up knocking on doors or stop insinuating people are on the verge of a breakdown if you want to rescue any shred of credibility or be of use while knocking on doors.

    Life is generally better than a box set.
    Look through this thread to find who first introduced the idea of breakdown and stress. It certainly wasn't me. I just mirrored it.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    LOL at Remainers pushing the WAIB through the Commons. Johnson a master of reverse psychology?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Pulpstar said:

    Lol, more SO24 nonsense. Letwin's last mad plan has pushed us closer to "No deal" than everyone would like.

    Right now 6 days. By Monday 4 days away (including Monday).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,215
    Nigelb said:

    Bit of an uptick for Harris in South Carolina - back up at 11%, as Biden's lock on the state continues gradually to erode very slowly.

    It's not earth shattering, but the first piece of positive news for her in a while.

    Buttigieg 9% same poll.
  • Sandpit said:

    Mr. Sandpit, I'd forgotten how late Mexico starts. It's 7pm for qualifying and just after (the following day, of course) for the race.

    Yes, and USA will be the same times next weekend. Brazil's a couple of hours earlier. Abu Dhabi is of course at usual European race times, but the race starts as dusk local time - and I'll be there! :D
    Enjoy! My Bro's been to lot's of foreign ones but we both started at sliverstone. I don't travel very well.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    That's absolutely not what the poll says.
  • JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,775
    edited October 2019
    My Bottas lay went unmatched so it's game on. I've got about 25 quid to play with and I'm open to all suggestions.
  • Alistair said:

    That's absolutely not what the poll says.
    Is Alex Salmond still taking RT’s rouble?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    philiph said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lol, more SO24 nonsense. Letwin's last mad plan has pushed us closer to "No deal" than everyone would like.

    Right now 6 days. By Monday 4 days away (including Monday).
    The countdown on RTÉ news is becoming alarming.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    TudorRose said:

    The trouble with this market is that we don't know when the election will be. You could be tying your money in for a long time and you might find the election circumstances are very different. For example, a messy much-amended Brexit deal that is ultimately pulled by Boris might result in a lot more BXP seats than 4.

    One thing to bear in mind is that for a new party FPTP is terribly difficult. You have no track record with which to convince the public you have a chance of winning. You have limited data to work out where your supporters are. It is very hard to convert votes to seats.

    The Alliance won 13 seats on 26.4% of the vote in 1983.

    Some of the circumstances are different and more favourable to the Brexit Party, but not all of them are.

    It's worth noting that the Leave vote is not as extremely concentrated as the Remain vote. Only 21 seats voted by more than 70% for Leave compared to 38 for Remain. I haven't looked in detail, but I suspect a number of otherwise promising targets are currently held by ERG stalwarts.

    I suspect that OGH's long experience with parties outside the big two failing to win seats in numbers to match the polling and hype is reassuring him that the downside risk on the bet is more modest then you might think.
    The Alliance actually won 23 seats in 1983.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237

    Both of you are missing the point that the electoral commission would have to work out the wording to including no deal. As in everything brexit it is not as simple as it seems

    Given the Boris Deal is 'true leave' for most Leavers the absence of No Deal from the Ref2* ballot paper would not be such a big problem as it would if the Leave option were, say, the May Deal

    * That's the Ref2 that remains IMO very much a Not Happening event.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,215
    Who is going to seize the SO24 to push the WAIB through the Commons though. Surely Benn etc won't want to have their hands on that ?
    It's a money bill too - I doubt even Bercow wants to break the rules THAT much.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Indyref, should be good for Ferrari.

    I've put a tiny bit on McLaren to get a podium (think that was Mr. Sandpit's idea).
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Barnesian said:


    It's no deal or revoke, up to you Boris.

    If the opposition parties were left with the choice of an unamended WAB or no deal, why would they choose the latter?

    It makes no sense and is why the Tories can be relaxed about focusing on domestic policy until remainer MPs come to their senses and realise that attaching wrecking amendments to the bill will just get it pulled.

  • Alistair said:

    That's absolutely not what the poll says.
    It is Russia Today. Of course it is propoganda. Not helped by the Guardian. Or the UK public. Or the UK politicians and journalists who have led us down the path Putin desired.
  • I’m calling it now, a panic stricken Commons facing a No Deal Brexit on Thursday will revoke Article 50.

    Lord knows where we go after that.
This discussion has been closed.