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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’m betting that Farage’s Brexit party will get fewer than 4 MPs
Even at a time when Brexit totally dominating the news we are not seeing much of Nigel Farage who appears to be keeping a low profile at the moment. He’s opposed to the deal which has not endeared him to many of the party’s followers.
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With Boris and the Boris Deal though which more Leavers support than the May Deal and the refusal of Boris to ask for an extension himself, the Brexit Party are now polling at UKIP 2015 levels ie about 11% and unlikely to get more than the 1 seat UKIP got then
Otherwise I don't immediately see any compelling trades at these prices. Maybe a buy of the LibDems at 48?
Labour seats looks quite mean to me. I don't think I would be selling at 205.
Incidentally, this whole thing about Boris not asking for an extension: it does seem that you’re saying that he hasn’t complied with the Benn Act, which may become a bit problematic when the Scottish court reconvenes. Would your preference be for him to be found in contempt for not complying, or to not be found in contempt because the court is of the view that he did in fact comply by sending a letter seeking an extension?
Strange to explain the potential upside of the bet (to laymen I presume) and not mention the downside
I guess selling at 4 could be seen as a good bet, my question would be why do it now when BXP are keeping their powder dry? Do we think the price will be significantly lower nearer the time? Farage could be all over the tv come the GE campaign and the price might artificially shoot up
What an embarrassment - bra straps for all to see.
Heaven level - Silly Samuel
Purgatory level - Cooper
Hell level - Kirsty Blackman
The court can say what it wants, Boris has already won the political war as the polling shows as Leavers still back him and by next week it will be irrelevant anyway as the EU will already have decided the new extension date whether Macron vetoes a longer extension or not
UKIP leader suspended over data theft allegations
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50125853
Betfair`s BXP Seats market has 0-9 seats is 1/5. Buying money - but I can`t be arsed to bet as far odds on as that.
"After more than three years of delays and parliamentary games there is a powerful sense of wanting to ‘just get Brexit done’. Feelings of Brexit fatigue have led some Leavers to welcome Boris Johnson’s deal as the best we are likely to get.
That is understandable. But it is a mistake. The Prime Minister’s deal is not a proper Brexit. It is far removed from what 17.4m of us voted for in 2016.
I can only suppose that pro-Brexit MPs backing the deal have not actually read the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) and the important Political Declaration (PD) that goes with it. These make up a new European Treaty that reheats 95 per cent of Theresa May’s deal. "
Would make a good politician.
Maybe he/she IS a politician??
Brexit Party deposits saved will be an interesting market....
However HYFUD either, deliberately, or because he doesn't understand, does not do this. A while ago when IanB2 was frustrated by this I converted the conversation into mathematical logic connotation so as to show it was irrational and posted it.
HYFUD took it that I was criticising his style, which I do, but not in this case. He has a complete inability to argue a point. As I said that might be deliberate to wind people up, or he may just have not even the basic understanding of logic.
My gut feeling is that a court holding him in contempt would be a little bit challenging. And he wouldn’t be well advised to claim he didn’t do the thing which a court said he did in clearing him. Perhaps your view of the importance of objective fact is a bit more up to date than mine though. On balance, wouldn’t the incompetence be seen as a plus in the context of the other two characteristics?
Post by cheque is my terms (I know terribly old fashioned)
This goes to show how much of politics is down to sentiment. The Brexit Party was a child of May's WA. Boris's WA is almost identical and yet a lot of Hard Brexiters are inclined to side with Boris.
Farage is right - he's the one who's being consistent - but people don't think or act consistently.
It is possible (even if exceedingly unlikely) that some unforeseen set of circumstances sees a significant number of Tory voters decide they have to vote Brexit, and you lose many times your stake.
So understand the risk before committing; it its not like putting your money in the bank...
In fact it was worse than not turning up, he (or more probably Seumas Milne) actively and repeatedly sabotaged the Labour side of the Remain campaign, as extensively document in Tim Shipman's book.
If it was a line bet and not a spread bet I'd lay BXP at 0.5
The disparity with favourite Leclerc at 2.8 looks much too wide.
I think I'd want to know when the next election is for certain before betting.
If so lay Labour on the spreads. There
You and your stupid terms - you'd have been most likely a tenner up come election night.
Had my backside handed to me on a couple of occasions especially in 2015 when I was all over Lib Dem seats at 33 in 100 a seat...we all know where that settled.
Worse time though was on cricket in the early nineties(it was the night Fred West died)
Eng vs Aus out there. Overnight England were 170 odd for seven. In all the other tests our tail had been skittled.
Sold England runs at 214..cut out at 308 in 40 a run..learnt a big lesson
Firstly Boris's WA has key differences to May's WA.
Secondly May in March voluntarily voted to extend A50. Boris voted against extending A50 in both March and September. May was rightly not trusted to take us out as she would refuse to leave without a deal as her choosing to extend A50 demonstrated. Boris didn't choose to extend A50 he had no choice in the matter.
The court case does seem to have been forgotten, perhaps because it is in Edinburgh and somehow not seen as proper law for freeborn Englishmen to worry about - judginf from some of the comments here and elsewhere at the time oft he original case. But it has real potential to explode given the chaotic nature of politics at the moment, and the very firm assurances given (twice, I think) by HMG's advocate.
Given the general tone of the references byt Messrs Johnson, Rees-Mogg, et al to the Scots in recent days, I really do wonder what would happen in that situation.
https://twitter.com/JohnMannMP/status/1187490790764957696?s=20
Stupid ****.
The Alliance won 13 seats on 26.4% of the vote in 1983.
Some of the circumstances are different and more favourable to the Brexit Party, but not all of them are.
It's worth noting that the Leave vote is not as extremely concentrated as the Remain vote. Only 21 seats voted by more than 70% for Leave compared to 38 for Remain. I haven't looked in detail, but I suspect a number of otherwise promising targets are currently held by ERG stalwarts.
I suspect that OGH's long experience with parties outside the big two failing to win seats in numbers to match the polling and hype is reassuring him that the downside risk on the bet is more modest then you might think.
Might be a few MPs not seeking re-election?
The Lib Dems usually enjoy an uptick over the course of an election campaign because, thanks to election impartiality laws, people are reminded they exist. At other times the broadcasters generally ignore them.
Historically no-one could accuse the BBC of ignoring Farage. But over the past few months he has indeed been more notable by his absence.
If BXP are fielding a candidate in every constituency, then their status as winner of the most recent national poll (the Euros) should merit them considerable airtime.
So I wouldn't bet on this one as it's simply too unpredictable. They will probably not reach four seats. But don't rule it out.
My predictions are all within the spread except for Con and Lab. I'd sell Con at 317 and buy Lab at 213. (I'm not going to because of the risks in this type of bet).
That ought to be the best Buy since Apple stock in the nineties but I don't think anyone is saying it is?
Labour will probably get whacked at the next GE but it certainly won't be down to the genius of Bozo, replace Corbyn with Hilary Benn and Bozo's toast.
https://twitter.com/kenklippenstein/status/1183938620962594819?fbclid=IwAR2kprADwjaRt-U81mV8uljjJrSsU206i-N-ROVDO7mpNC8NE9TJTT6EW_E