I think the other big change from GE2017 for the stability of a Tory government will be what happens in Scotland.
The likely motivators for a Boris Bounce in England ("he seems like a good bloke", "he's socking it to those remainers", "he's promising more money for my hospital - in England") seem likely to play exactly in reverse in Scotland. And the party there seems to be feeling a bit cut off and disillusioned from Head Office (sorry.. its federal partner), manifested by Ruth jacking it in. I shouldn't imagine many surviving Scots Tories will be as nailed-on in the Brexit lobbies as the loyalists being lined up in the south.
TMay made 12 gains in Scotland on a distinctly sub-optimal night for her in 2017. Given the likelihood of a churn of seats holding back any English Tory gains (ie they'll win some and lose some), a big anti-Tory swing in Scotland could be fatal.
The latest Scotland only poll has the Tories holding 5 seats in Scotland, more than Cameron got in 2015 when he won a majority
Wales may hold the key to the Tories getting a majority, if things are tight. I think Labour is going to get an historic drubbing in the Midlands/Yorks/NW though.
If Wales gives the Tories a majority, will Corbyn feel sheepish?
I think the other big change from GE2017 for the stability of a Tory government will be what happens in Scotland.
The likely motivators for a Boris Bounce in England ("he seems like a good bloke", "he's socking it to those remainers", "he's promising more money for my hospital - in England") seem likely to play exactly in reverse in Scotland. And the party there seems to be feeling a bit cut off and disillusioned from Head Office (sorry.. its federal partner), manifested by Ruth jacking it in. I shouldn't imagine many surviving Scots Tories will be as nailed-on in the Brexit lobbies as the loyalists being lined up in the south.
TMay made 12 gains in Scotland on a distinctly sub-optimal night for her in 2017. Given the likelihood of a churn of seats holding back any English Tory gains (ie they'll win some and lose some), a big anti-Tory swing in Scotland could be fatal.
The latest Scotland only poll has the Tories holding 5 seats in Scotland, more than Cameron got in 2015 when he won a majority
Wales may hold the key to the Tories getting a majority, if things are tight. I think Labour is going to get an historic drubbing in the Midlands/Yorks/NW though.
I get a stronger sense today that any election will be in the New Year.Unlikely before 23rd January.
But that means we'll need another extension as Boris probably won't be able to get his WAIB through in time even if he wins.
It is matter of logistics really. Even if any extension is limited to 30th November, it will by that date be too late to hold an election before Christmas. Possible Dissolution circa 18th December for GE on 30th January.
"[Google's] Sycamore quantum processor was able to perform a specific task in 200 seconds that would take the world's best supercomputers 10,000 years to complete."
Yes, now about those supposedly unbreakable encryption devices...
Yes, when governments suddenly stop whining about "unbreakable encryption" then we'll know the spooks have this tech, and the hackers will have it soon after.
From what I understand, it would seem that using quantum computing to encrypt things has the interesting property that if it is broken, then the intended recipient won't be able to de-crypt, which means they will know they've been compromised.
"[Google's] Sycamore quantum processor was able to perform a specific task in 200 seconds that would take the world's best supercomputers 10,000 years to complete."
In classical computers, the unit of information is called a "bit" and can have a value of either 1 or 0. But its equivalent in a quantum system - the qubit (quantum bit) - can be both 1 and 0 at the same time.
Sounds a lot like many MPs....claiming being for Brexit, but at the same time always against it.
That wave function collapses at the doors of the lobby, but MPs' double eigenstates are superimposed again when speaking to lobby journalists. Poor form, but makes for a hilarious interview with Richard Burgon every now and then.
May i say for my first entry that PB has become essential reading for too long to not contribute. Secondly let me state at the outset that i have a deep loathing for virtually all politicians but still find the Parliamentary cesspit fascinating. Is there something wrong with me?
That depends on your opinion regarding pineapple on pizza.
The one nation group of conservative mps endorsed the deal and voted for the programme motion hence my decision to rejoin. The party is uniting and I can understand some will not like it, but heyhoe
While I respect and accept you change of heart. I'm afraid I could never vote for Johnson even if he pushed a wheelbarrow full of £50 notes down my garden path.
Put bluntly, I do not like him and I do not trust him.
His record as London Mayor speaks volumes - yes, we had the Olympics though much of the ground work was started by Livingstone and we have the bikes but he made disappointingly little progress on house building for example.
However, he also took far more power into the Mayor's office than Livingstone such as the running of the Metropolitan Police and Transport for London while he persistently and consistently evaded or ignored the proper scrutiny of the Greater London Assembly to whom he was nominally accountable.
I fear a Johnson majority Government will see a concentration of power within No.10 (we have already seen this) with the Cabinet and other levers of accountability ignored or by-passed. I agree Johnson is not a nationalist nor he is an authoritarian but he enjoys power and control and doesn't enjoy being challenged or questioned.
The golden rule with Johnson is he says whatever he thinks the audience in front of him wants to hear. The DUP have found this out the hard way but he may win an election by saying the right things to enough people.
I don't want him to succeed and it will be a disaster for the country if he is afforded untrammelled power via a large majority.
Passing a Brexit deal and not being given an early election, or at least putting it off until middle of next year, would be the best way to deny him a majority (maybe - I'm not as convinced as others he will win big come December).
The one nation group of conservative mps endorsed the deal and voted for the programme motion hence my decision to rejoin. The party is uniting and I can understand some will not like it, but heyhoe
While I respect and accept you change of heart. I'm afraid I could never vote for Johnson even if he pushed a wheelbarrow full of £50 notes down my garden path.
Put bluntly, I do not like him and I do not trust him.
His record as London Mayor speaks volumes - yes, we had the Olympics though much of the ground work was started by Livingstone and we have the bikes but he made disappointingly little progress on house building for example.
However, he also took far more power into the Mayor's office than Livingstone such as the running of the Metropolitan Police and Transport for London while he persistently and consistently evaded or ignored the proper scrutiny of the Greater London Assembly to whom he was nominally accountable.
I fear a Johnson majority Government will see a concentration of power within No.10 (we have already seen this) with the Cabinet and other levers of accountability ignored or by-passed. I agree Johnson is not a nationalist nor he is an authoritarian but he enjoys power and control and doesn't enjoy being challenged or questioned.
The golden rule with Johnson is he says whatever he thinks the audience in front of him wants to hear. The DUP have found this out the hard way but he may win an election by saying the right things to enough people.
I don't want him to succeed and it will be a disaster for the country if he is afforded untrammelled power via a large majority.
I would say I do not want a large majority
A working majority is fine and he gets brexit through seeing off no deal
He also has a good domestic policy agenda but the principle reason for supporting the party is to see Corbyn never gets near to power. He makes Boris look a saint and that is something
The one nation group of conservative mps endorsed the deal and voted for the programme motion hence my decision to rejoin. The party is uniting and I can understand some will not like it, but heyhoe
While I respect and accept you change of heart. I'm afraid I could never vote for Johnson even if he pushed a wheelbarrow full of £50 notes down my garden path.
Put bluntly, I do not like him and I do not trust him.
His record as London Mayor speaks volumes - yes, we had the Olympics though much of the ground work was started by Livingstone and we have the bikes but he made disappointingly little progress on house building for example.
However, he also took far more power into the Mayor's office than Livingstone such as the running of the Metropolitan Police and Transport for London while he persistently and consistently evaded or ignored the proper scrutiny of the Greater London Assembly to whom he was nominally accountable.
I fear a Johnson majority Government will see a concentration of power within No.10 (we have already seen this) with the Cabinet and other levers of accountability ignored or by-passed. I agree Johnson is not a nationalist nor he is an authoritarian but he enjoys power and control and doesn't enjoy being challenged or questioned.
The golden rule with Johnson is he says whatever he thinks the audience in front of him wants to hear. The DUP have found this out the hard way but he may win an election by saying the right things to enough people.
I don't want him to succeed and it will be a disaster for the country if he is afforded untrammelled power via a large majority.
Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak · 41m PM has pulled out of appearing in front of MPs tmrw - this will go down extremely badly with MPs
Pulled out at last minute If only he had done that before he fathered all those Kids
Presumably, he's got more important peole to talk to. You know, those who can actually get their shit together about Brexit....
The committees cannot expect Boris to turn up when he is in the middle of the biggest crisis since the 1950's
And Wollaston has some gall in view of her switching opinions and parties. She is hardly a neutral observer
He is so busy he can go campaigning around the country (hence picture at the top with a bull) but cannot find a morning or afternoon to attend MPs? I don't buy it at all. People talk about Corbyn being frit of elections but why is BJ so afraid of scrutiny by MPs? MPs job description involves the scrutiny of the executive, he is not working within the democratic system but against it...
I think the other big change from GE2017 for the stability of a Tory government will be what happens in Scotland.
The likely motivators for a Boris Bounce in England ("he seems like a good bloke", "he's socking it to those remainers", "he's promising more money for my hospital - in England") seem likely to play exactly in reverse in Scotland. And the party there seems to be feeling a bit cut off and disillusioned from Head Office (sorry.. its federal partner), manifested by Ruth jacking it in. I shouldn't imagine many surviving Scots Tories will be as nailed-on in the Brexit lobbies as the loyalists being lined up in the south.
TMay made 12 gains in Scotland on a distinctly sub-optimal night for her in 2017. Given the likelihood of a churn of seats holding back any English Tory gains (ie they'll win some and lose some), a big anti-Tory swing in Scotland could be fatal.
The latest Scotland only poll has the Tories holding 5 seats in Scotland, more than Cameron got in 2015 when he won a majority
Wales may hold the key to the Tories getting a majority, if things are tight. I think Labour is going to get an historic drubbing in the Midlands/Yorks/NW though.
The behaviour of Tribal Labour voters is the other great potential disruptor of UNS. If they fall back in because they usually do, it's game on for Lab. (They were hardly natural Blair supporters either). If they switch to Boris as they did to Thatcher in the 80s, he's probably heading for a win as long as they unseat a few Lab MPs rather than just reducing majorities.
IMO disillusioned voters often end up voting for whoever lines their pockets the most. In that respect if the rumour of no significant tax cuts from an incoming Boris Govt is true, he will have to come up with a different bag of 'goodies'.
More money for the NHS, a higher minimum wage and more money for the police under Boris and tax cuts will be proposed too to contrast with Corbyn's tax rises, there will be no repeat of May's 'dementia tax' disaster
I think the other big change from GE2017 for the stability of a Tory government will be what happens in Scotland.
The likely motivators for a Boris Bounce in England ("he seems like a good bloke", "he's socking it to those remainers", "he's promising more money for my hospital - in England") seem likely to play exactly in reverse in Scotland. And the party there seems to be feeling a bit cut off and disillusioned from Head Office (sorry.. its federal partner), manifested by Ruth jacking it in. I shouldn't imagine many surviving Scots Tories will be as nailed-on in the Brexit lobbies as the loyalists being lined up in the south.
TMay made 12 gains in Scotland on a distinctly sub-optimal night for her in 2017. Given the likelihood of a churn of seats holding back any English Tory gains (ie they'll win some and lose some), a big anti-Tory swing in Scotland could be fatal.
The latest Scotland only poll has the Tories holding 5 seats in Scotland, more than Cameron got in 2015 when he won a majority
Wales may hold the key to the Tories getting a majority, if things are tight. I think Labour is going to get an historic drubbing in the Midlands/Yorks/NW though.
The latest Wales only poll has the Tories ahead
Indeed. Truly horrible news for the Labour fiefdom....
The one nation group of conservative mps endorsed the deal and voted for the programme motion hence my decision to rejoin. The party is uniting and I can understand some will not like it, but heyhoe
While I respect and accept you change of heart. I'm afraid I could never vote for Johnson even if he pushed a wheelbarrow full of £50 notes down my garden path.
Put bluntly, I do not like him and I do not trust him.
His record as London Mayor speaks volumes - yes, we had the Olympics though much of the ground work was started by Livingstone and we have the bikes but he made disappointingly little progress on house building for example.
However, he also took far more power into the Mayor's office than Livingstone such as the running of the Metropolitan Police and Transport for London while he persistently and consistently evaded or ignored the proper scrutiny of the Greater London Assembly to whom he was nominally accountable.
I fear a Johnson majority Government will see a concentration of power within No.10 (we have already seen this) with the Cabinet and other levers of accountability ignored or by-passed. I agree Johnson is not a nationalist nor he is an authoritarian but he enjoys power and control and doesn't enjoy being challenged or questioned.
The golden rule with Johnson is he says whatever he thinks the audience in front of him wants to hear. The DUP have found this out the hard way but he may win an election by saying the right things to enough people.
I don't want him to succeed and it will be a disaster for the country if he is afforded untrammelled power via a large majority.
Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak · 41m PM has pulled out of appearing in front of MPs tmrw - this will go down extremely badly with MPs
MPs don't trust him, won't believe his answers and as a majority won't pass his deal anyway, what does it matter if it goes down badly with them? It's petty and childish again, but the effect seems negligible.
Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak · 41m PM has pulled out of appearing in front of MPs tmrw - this will go down extremely badly with MPs
Pulled out at last minute If only he had done that before he fathered all those Kids
His letter to Wollaston is actually illegible in his own hand writing, so it’s impossible to discern why.
Dear Sarah. I promised that I will come to the Liaison Committe and I will keep that promise but I am afraid I must now focus on delivering Brexit in these difficult circumstances in which we find ourselves. I believe I would be of greater value if I could postpone to a fixed date nearer 5 or 6 months after I became PM, so that my appearence took place after roughly the same period in office as Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Theresa May. I do hope you will understand. Best wishes as ever, Boris.
He thinks they are being mean by wanting him there earlier than Brown, Cameron and May went, plus Brexit.
He was quite polite. He could have just written; Dear Sarah, I will present myself for accountability to you when you do the same for your constituents. See you later, BoJo.
I think the other big change from GE2017 for the stability of a Tory government will be what happens in Scotland.
The likely motivators for a Boris Bounce in England ("he seems like a good bloke", "he's socking it to those remainers", "he's promising more money for my hospital - in England") seem likely to play exactly in reverse in Scotland. And the party there seems to be feeling a bit cut off and disillusioned from Head Office (sorry.. its federal partner), manifested by Ruth jacking it in. I shouldn't imagine many surviving Scots Tories will be as nailed-on in the Brexit lobbies as the loyalists being lined up in the south.
TMay made 12 gains in Scotland on a distinctly sub-optimal night for her in 2017. Given the likelihood of a churn of seats holding back any English Tory gains (ie they'll win some and lose some), a big anti-Tory swing in Scotland could be fatal.
The latest Scotland only poll has the Tories holding 5 seats in Scotland, more than Cameron got in 2015 when he won a majority
Wales may hold the key to the Tories getting a majority, if things are tight. I think Labour is going to get an historic drubbing in the Midlands/Yorks/NW though.
If Wales gives the Tories a majority, will Corbyn feel sheepish?
How do they describe a leisure center in Cardiff?
Wool you be thinking something offensive?
Not at all only to the lamp post
That’s OK then. We needed some light relief.
You are required to wear Wellington boots to participate so I’m told but I have to declare I’m enjoying and excellent Faustino Rioja Crianza 2016 at the moment which was €6.5 and watching Liverpool try to win an away game in Champions League
I think the other big change from GE2017 for the stability of a Tory government will be what happens in Scotland.
The likely motivators for a Boris Bounce in England ("he seems like a good bloke", "he's socking it to those remainers", "he's promising more money for my hospital - in England") seem likely to play exactly in reverse in Scotland. And the party there seems to be feeling a bit cut off and disillusioned from Head Office (sorry.. its federal partner), manifested by Ruth jacking it in. I shouldn't imagine many surviving Scots Tories will be as nailed-on in the Brexit lobbies as the loyalists being lined up in the south.
TMay made 12 gains in Scotland on a distinctly sub-optimal night for her in 2017. Given the likelihood of a churn of seats holding back any English Tory gains (ie they'll win some and lose some), a big anti-Tory swing in Scotland could be fatal.
The latest Scotland only poll has the Tories holding 5 seats in Scotland, more than Cameron got in 2015 when he won a majority
Wales may hold the key to the Tories getting a majority, if things are tight. I think Labour is going to get an historic drubbing in the Midlands/Yorks/NW though.
The behaviour of Tribal Labour voters is the other great potential disruptor of UNS. If they fall back in because they usually do, it's game on for Lab. (They were hardly natural Blair supporters either). If they switch to Boris as they did to Thatcher in the 80s, he's probably heading for a win as long as they unseat a few Lab MPs rather than just reducing majorities.
IMO disillusioned voters often end up voting for whoever lines their pockets the most. In that respect if the rumour of no significant tax cuts from an incoming Boris Govt is true, he will have to come up with a different bag of 'goodies'.
More money for the NHS, a higher minimum wage and more money for the police under Boris and tax cuts will be proposed too to contrast with Corbyn's tax rises, there will be no repeat of May's 'dementia tax' disaster
The one nation group of conservative mps endorsed the deal and voted for the programme motion hence my decision to rejoin. The party is uniting and I can understand some will not like it, but heyhoe
While I respect and accept you change of heart. I'm afraid I could never vote for Johnson even if he pushed a wheelbarrow full of £50 notes down my garden path.
Put bluntly, I do not like him and I do not trust him.
His record as London Mayor speaks volumes - yes, we had the Olympics though much of the ground work was started by Livingstone and we have the bikes but he made disappointingly little progress on house building for example.
However, he also took far more power into the Mayor's office than Livingstone such as the running of the Metropolitan Police and Transport for London while he persistently and consistently evaded or ignored the proper scrutiny of the Greater London Assembly to whom he was nominally accountable.
I fear a Johnson majority Government will see a concentration of power within No.10 (we have already seen this) with the Cabinet and other levers of accountability ignored or by-passed. I agree Johnson is not a nationalist nor he is an authoritarian but he enjoys power and control and doesn't enjoy being challenged or questioned.
The golden rule with Johnson is he says whatever he thinks the audience in front of him wants to hear. The DUP have found this out the hard way but he may win an election by saying the right things to enough people.
I don't want him to succeed and it will be a disaster for the country if he is afforded untrammelled power via a large majority.
Correct. And this is one factor why Johnson will not do as well at an election as his many fans on here predict. Just as in 2017, the prospect of a large Tory majority will drive voters to turn to Labour and the Lib Dems in the belief that Corbyn cannot win and so it is safe to vote Labour to deny Johnson a large majority.
Soon they’ll want guarantees an asteroid won’t hit the planet !
Perhaps their supporters should ask this question , if Labour are so worried about this deal the only way to stop it is to have an election and win that or at least form a minority government .
Their Remain voters need to ask , an election is the absolute last chance to stop Brexit .
Sticking some EU ref on the deal means zip if there’s no government willing to enact the legislation.
As a Remainer and normal Labour voter one things for sure the Lib Dems even if Brexit happens are going to make hay out of this .
Firstly the deal gets over the line because of Labour votes .
Secondly , Labour had the chance to have an election and stop Brexit but stood by and watched as the deal went through .
The one nation group of conservative mps endorsed the deal and voted for the programme motion hence my decision to rejoin. The party is uniting and I can understand some will not like it, but heyhoe
While I respect and accept you change of heart. I'm afraid I could never vote for Johnson even if he pushed a wheelbarrow full of £50 notes down my garden path.
Put bluntly, I do not like him and I do not trust him.
His record as London Mayor speaks volumes - yes, we had the Olympics though much of the ground work was started by Livingstone and we have the bikes but he made disappointingly little progress on house building for example.
However, he also took far more power into the Mayor's office than Livingstone such as the running of the Metropolitan Police and Transport for London while he persistently and consistently evaded or ignored the proper scrutiny of the Greater London Assembly to whom he was nominally accountable.
I fear a Johnson majority Government will see a concentration of power within No.10 (we have already seen this) with the Cabinet and other levers of accountability ignored or by-passed. I agree Johnson is not a nationalist nor he is an authoritarian but he enjoys power and control and doesn't enjoy being challenged or questioned.
The golden rule with Johnson is he says whatever he thinks the audience in front of him wants to hear. The DUP have found this out the hard way but he may win an election by saying the right things to enough people.
I don't want him to succeed and it will be a disaster for the country if he is afforded untrammelled power via a large majority.
Correct. And this is one factor why Johnson will not do as well at an election as his many fans on here predict. Just as in 2017, the prospect of a large Tory majority will drive voters to turn to Labour and the Lib Dems in the belief that Corbyn cannot win and so it is safe to vote Labour to deny Johnson a large majority.
"[Google's] Sycamore quantum processor was able to perform a specific task in 200 seconds that would take the world's best supercomputers 10,000 years to complete."
Yes, now about those supposedly unbreakable encryption devices...
Yes, when governments suddenly stop whining about "unbreakable encryption" then we'll know the spooks have this tech, and the hackers will have it soon after.
From what I understand, it would seem that using quantum computing to encrypt things has the interesting property that if it is broken, then the intended recipient won't be able to de-crypt, which means they will know they've been compromised.
The possibilities for AI are also more than somewhat intimidating.
The one nation group of conservative mps endorsed the deal and voted for the programme motion hence my decision to rejoin. The party is uniting and I can understand some will not like it, but heyhoe
While I respect and accept you change of heart. I'm afraid I could never vote for Johnson even if he pushed a wheelbarrow full of £50 notes down my garden path.
Put bluntly, I do not like him and I do not trust him.
His record as London Mayor speaks volumes - yes, we had the Olympics though much of the ground work was started by Livingstone and we have the bikes but he made disappointingly little progress on house building for example.
However, he also took far more power into the Mayor's office than Livingstone such as the running of the Metropolitan Police and Transport for London while he persistently and consistently evaded or ignored the proper scrutiny of the Greater London Assembly to whom he was nominally accountable.
I fear a Johnson majority Government will see a concentration of power within No.10 (we have already seen this) with the Cabinet and other levers of accountability ignored or by-passed. I agree Johnson is not a nationalist nor he is an authoritarian but he enjoys power and control and doesn't enjoy being challenged or questioned.
The golden rule with Johnson is he says whatever he thinks the audience in front of him wants to hear. The DUP have found this out the hard way but he may win an election by saying the right things to enough people.
I don't want him to succeed and it will be a disaster for the country if he is afforded untrammelled power via a large majority.
Correct. And this is one factor why Johnson will not do as well at an election as his many fans on here predict. Just as in 2017, the prospect of a large Tory majority will drive voters to turn to Labour and the Lib Dems in the belief that Corbyn cannot win and so it is safe to vote Labour to deny Johnson a large majority.
The one nation group of conservative mps endorsed the deal and voted for the programme motion hence my decision to rejoin. The party is uniting and I can understand some will not like it, but heyhoe
While I respect and accept you change of heart. I'm afraid I could never vote for Johnson even if he pushed a wheelbarrow full of £50 notes down my garden path.
Put bluntly, I do not like him and I do not trust him.
His record as London Mayor speaks volumes - yes, we had the Olympics though much of the ground work was started by Livingstone and we have the bikes but he made disappointingly little progress on house building for example.
However, he also took far more power into the Mayor's office than Livingstone such as the running of the Metropolitan Police and Transport for London while he persistently and consistently evaded or ignored the proper scrutiny of the Greater London Assembly to whom he was nominally accountable.
I fear a Johnson majority Government will see a concentration of power within No.10 (we have already seen this) with the Cabinet and other levers of accountability ignored or by-passed. I agree Johnson is not a nationalist nor he is an authoritarian but he enjoys power and control and doesn't enjoy being challenged or questioned.
The golden rule with Johnson is he says whatever he thinks the audience in front of him wants to hear. The DUP have found this out the hard way but he may win an election by saying the right things to enough people.
I don't want him to succeed and it will be a disaster for the country if he is afforded untrammelled power via a large majority.
Correct. And this is one factor why Johnson will not do as well at an election as his many fans on here predict. Just as in 2017, the prospect of a large Tory majority will drive voters to turn to Labour and the Lib Dems in the belief that Corbyn cannot win and so it is safe to vote Labour to deny Johnson a large majority.
Could be an interesting polling question - Would you vote for a party if you thought that they had little chance of winning(but didnt like the alternative(s))?
I think the other big change from GE2017 for the stability of a Tory government will be what happens in Scotland.
The likely motivators for a Boris Bounce in England ("he seems like a good bloke", "he's socking it to those remainers", "he's promising more money for my hospital - in England") seem likely to play exactly in reverse in Scotland. And the party there seems to be feeling a bit cut off and disillusioned from Head Office (sorry.. its federal partner), manifested by Ruth jacking it in. I shouldn't imagine many surviving Scots Tories will be as nailed-on in the Brexit lobbies as the loyalists being lined up in the south.
TMay made 12 gains in Scotland on a distinctly sub-optimal night for her in 2017. Given the likelihood of a churn of seats holding back any English Tory gains (ie they'll win some and lose some), a big anti-Tory swing in Scotland could be fatal.
The latest Scotland only poll has the Tories holding 5 seats in Scotland, more than Cameron got in 2015 when he won a majority
Wales may hold the key to the Tories getting a majority, if things are tight. I think Labour is going to get an historic drubbing in the Midlands/Yorks/NW though.
The behaviour of Tribal Labour voters is the other great potential disruptor of UNS. If they fall back in because they usually do, it's game on for Lab. (They were hardly natural Blair supporters either). If they switch to Boris as they did to Thatcher in the 80s, he's probably heading for a win as long as they unseat a few Lab MPs rather than just reducing majorities.
IMO disillusioned voters often end up voting for whoever lines their pockets the most. In that respect if the rumour of no significant tax cuts from an incoming Boris Govt is true, he will have to come up with a different bag of 'goodies'.
More money for the NHS, a higher minimum wage and more money for the police under Boris and tax cuts will be proposed too to contrast with Corbyn's tax rises, there will be no repeat of May's 'dementia tax' disaster
And scrap HS2
That is subject to an ongoing review so expect a fudge
Soon they’ll want guarantees an asteroid won’t hit the planet !
If it did, the correct course would be to station Corbyn, Long Bailey, Pidcock, Lavery and Burgon directly in its path so it bounces off the mass of bone in their heads.
The one nation group of conservative mps endorsed the deal and voted for the programme motion hence my decision to rejoin. The party is uniting and I can understand some will not like it, but heyhoe
While I respect and accept you change of heart. I'm afraid I could never vote for Johnson even if he pushed a wheelbarrow full of £50 notes down my garden path.
Put bluntly, I do not like him and I do not trust him.
His record as London Mayor speaks volumes - yes, we had the Olympics though much of the ground work was started by Livingstone and we have the bikes but he made disappointingly little progress on house building for example.
However, he also took far more power into the Mayor's office than Livingstone such as the running of the Metropolitan Police and Transport for London while he persistently and consistently evaded or ignored the proper scrutiny of the Greater London Assembly to whom he was nominally accountable.
I fear a Johnson majority Government will see a concentration of power within No.10 (we have already seen this) with the Cabinet and other levers of accountability ignored or by-passed. I agree Johnson is not a nationalist nor he is an authoritarian but he enjoys power and control and doesn't enjoy being challenged or questioned.
The golden rule with Johnson is he says whatever he thinks the audience in front of him wants to hear. The DUP have found this out the hard way but he may win an election by saying the right things to enough people.
I don't want him to succeed and it will be a disaster for the country if he is afforded untrammelled power via a large majority.
Correct. And this is one factor why Johnson will not do as well at an election as his many fans on here predict. Just as in 2017, the prospect of a large Tory majority will drive voters to turn to Labour and the Lib Dems in the belief that Corbyn cannot win and so it is safe to vote Labour to deny Johnson a large majority.
Could be an interesting polling question - Would you vote for a party if you thought that they had little chance of winning(but didnt like the alternative(s))?
I think the other big change from GE2017 for the stability of a Tory government will be what happens in Scotland.
The likely motivators for a Boris Bounce in England ("he seems like a good bloke", "he's socking it to those remainers", "he's promising more money for my hospital - in England") seem likely to play exactly in reverse in Scotland. And the party there seems to be feeling a bit cut off and disillusioned from Head Office (sorry.. its federal partner), manifested by Ruth jacking it in. I shouldn't imagine many surviving Scots Tories will be as nailed-on in the Brexit lobbies as the loyalists being lined up in the south.
TMay made 12 gains in Scotland on a distinctly sub-optimal night for her in 2017. Given the likelihood of a churn of seats holding back any English Tory gains (ie they'll win some and lose some), a big anti-Tory swing in Scotland could be fatal.
The latest Scotland only poll has the Tories holding 5 seats in Scotland, more than Cameron got in 2015 when he won a majority
Wales may hold the key to the Tories getting a majority, if things are tight. I think Labour is going to get an historic drubbing in the Midlands/Yorks/NW though.
The behaviour of Tribal Labour voters is the other great potential disruptor of UNS. If they fall back in because they usually do, it's game on for Lab. (They were hardly natural Blair supporters either). If they switch to Boris as they did to Thatcher in the 80s, he's probably heading for a win as long as they unseat a few Lab MPs rather than just reducing majorities.
IMO disillusioned voters often end up voting for whoever lines their pockets the most. In that respect if the rumour of no significant tax cuts from an incoming Boris Govt is true, he will have to come up with a different bag of 'goodies'.
More money for the NHS, a higher minimum wage and more money for the police under Boris and tax cuts will be proposed too to contrast with Corbyn's tax rises, there will be no repeat of May's 'dementia tax' disaster
And scrap HS2
That is subject to an ongoing review so expect a fudge
Fudging or worse, scrapping it would lose them any chance of gaining seats in the North, although it might help win a couple in Stoke and Warwickshire.
Soon they’ll want guarantees an asteroid won’t hit the planet !
If it did, the correct course would be to station Corbyn, Long Bailey, Pidcock, Lavery and Burgon directly in its path so it bounces off the mass of bone in their heads.
To be fair you should add Marcus Fysh, Steve Baker and some other ERGers to ensure our continued survival
I think the other big change from GE2017 for the stability of a Tory government will be what happens in Scotland.
The likely motivators for a Boris Bounce in England ("he seems like a good bloke", "he's socking it to those remainers", "he's promising more money for my hospital - in England") seem likely to play exactly in reverse in Scotland. And the party there seems to be feeling a bit cut off and disillusioned from Head Office (sorry.. its federal partner), manifested by Ruth jacking it in. I shouldn't imagine many surviving Scots Tories will be as nailed-on in the Brexit lobbies as the loyalists being lined up in the south.
TMay made 12 gains in Scotland on a distinctly sub-optimal night for her in 2017. Given the likelihood of a churn of seats holding back any English Tory gains (ie they'll win some and lose some), a big anti-Tory swing in Scotland could be fatal.
The latest Scotland only poll has the Tories holding 5 seats in Scotland, more than Cameron got in 2015 when he won a majority
Wales may hold the key to the Tories getting a majority, if things are tight. I think Labour is going to get an historic drubbing in the Midlands/Yorks/NW though.
The behaviour of Tribal Labour voters is the other great potential disruptor of UNS. If they fall back in because they usually do, it's game on for Lab. (They were hardly natural Blair supporters either). If they switch to Boris as they did to Thatcher in the 80s, he's probably heading for a win as long as they unseat a few Lab MPs rather than just reducing majorities.
IMO disillusioned voters often end up voting for whoever lines their pockets the most. In that respect if the rumour of no significant tax cuts from an incoming Boris Govt is true, he will have to come up with a different bag of 'goodies'.
More money for the NHS, a higher minimum wage and more money for the police under Boris and tax cuts will be proposed too to contrast with Corbyn's tax rises, there will be no repeat of May's 'dementia tax' disaster
Plus Priti will go hard on crime. The Great British public is more hang em and flog em than the politicians.
Soon they’ll want guarantees an asteroid won’t hit the planet !
If it did, the correct course would be to station Corbyn, Long Bailey, Pidcock, Lavery and Burgon directly in its path so it bounces off the mass of bone in their heads.
To be fair you should add Marcus Fysh, Steve Baker and some other ERGers to ensure our continued survival
"[Google's] Sycamore quantum processor was able to perform a specific task in 200 seconds that would take the world's best supercomputers 10,000 years to complete."
Yes, now about those supposedly unbreakable encryption devices...
Yes, when governments suddenly stop whining about "unbreakable encryption" then we'll know the spooks have this tech, and the hackers will have it soon after.
From what I understand, it would seem that using quantum computing to encrypt things has the interesting property that if it is broken, then the intended recipient won't be able to de-crypt, which means they will know they've been compromised.
The possibilities for AI are also more than somewhat intimidating.
At last someone else calling Johnson by his given first name 😊
Soon they’ll want guarantees an asteroid won’t hit the planet !
If it did, the correct course would be to station Corbyn, Long Bailey, Pidcock, Lavery and Burgon directly in its path so it bounces off the mass of bone in their heads.
To be fair you should add Marcus Fysh, Steve Baker and some other ERGers to ensure our continued survival
And the entirety of the DUP...
Most of the DUP MPs are morally limited but not stupid. There are exceptions...
Labour’s best strategy is to hold off on an election until after Christmas and see what comes up. No point going all in now when they are holding the equivalent of 7-2 off suit.
I still can't quite get over how either side in recent weeks has contrived to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
One month ago, on the 24th September, Lady Hale delivered the Supreme Court's damming verdict on prorogation. In the days that immediately followed, Johnson was on the ropes. Had the Opposition of got their act together they would probably have won a VONC and booted Johnson from office. They chose instead to dangle him over the precipice and have some fun at his expense.
Fools: because Johnson achieved the highly improbable feat of securing a Brexit deal. He returned triumphant, the right wing press in adoration and awe and suddenly the country, indeed Europe, was genuflecting before him. Until that nice Mr Oliver Letwin came up with the bright idea of an amendment which put an enormous spanner in the works. Still, all might not have been lost. Even up until two days ago, Johnson still had it in the bag. His deal was close to being voted through. All he needed to do was swallow a little pride over his self-imposed deadline, seek a technical extension and let the Opposition have a few amendments, some of which would never have succeeded anyway.
But, no. Of course not. Compromise and magnanimity are not words that have made it onto Johnson's otherwise large lexicon. He couldn't bring himself graciously to let the deadline slip by a couple of weeks, nor to let scrutiny take place in Parliament. He had a tantrum instead (how Trump-esque).
Fool. He is now overseeing the singularly bizarre phenomenon of Jeremy Corbyn being the one pushing for Brexit to get done with the deal that, erm, Boris Johnson negotiated, whilst Johnson appears to be the one delaying Brexit.
I get a stronger sense today that any election will be in the New Year.Unlikely before 23rd January.
Yes, the campaign wouldn't be able to properly start until the second week of January. So probably even later — the middle of February. You can't run an election campaign between Christmas and the New Year.
I think the other big change from GE2017 for the stability of a Tory government will be what happens in Scotland.
The likely motivators for a Boris Bounce in England ("he seems like a good bloke", "he's socking it to those remainers", "he's promising more money for my hospital - in England") seem likely to play exactly in reverse in Scotland. And the party there seems to be feeling a bit cut off and disillusioned from Head Office (sorry.. its federal partner), manifested by Ruth jacking it in. I shouldn't imagine many surviving Scots Tories will be as nailed-on in the Brexit lobbies as the loyalists being lined up in the south.
TMay made 12 gains in Scotland on a distinctly sub-optimal night for her in 2017. Given the likelihood of a churn of seats holding back any English Tory gains (ie they'll win some and lose some), a big anti-Tory swing in Scotland could be fatal.
The latest Scotland only poll has the Tories holding 5 seats in Scotland, more than Cameron got in 2015 when he won a majority
Wales may hold the key to the Tories getting a majority, if things are tight. I think Labour is going to get an historic drubbing in the Midlands/Yorks/NW though.
The behaviour of Tribal Labour voters is the other great potential disruptor of UNS. If they fall back in because they usually do, it's game on for Lab. (They were hardly natural Blair supporters either). If they switch to Boris as they did to Thatcher in the 80s, he's probably heading for a win as long as they unseat a few Lab MPs rather than just reducing majorities.
IMO disillusioned voters often end up voting for whoever lines their pockets the most. In that respect if the rumour of no significant tax cuts from an incoming Boris Govt is true, he will have to come up with a different bag of 'goodies'.
More money for the NHS, a higher minimum wage and more money for the police under Boris and tax cuts will be proposed too to contrast with Corbyn's tax rises, there will be no repeat of May's 'dementia tax' disaster
And scrap HS2
That is subject to an ongoing review so expect a fudge
Fudging or worse, scrapping it would lose them any chance of gaining seats in the North, although it might help win a couple in Stoke and Warwickshire.
I can think of no one here (Cheshire) who supports HS2
Now, I would hesistate to guess at what the founding fathers intended from their system, and of course in many ways they created a very robust system, but in a system about accountability of different parts of government, why would they have intended someone be immune from prosecution while in office?
It’s a stupid strategy. On that subject, has there ever been any conclusive ruling on a US President’s immunity? I know it’s certainly been discussed since the days of Nixon, but it seems to be a foggy area constitutionally. I guess the impeachment clause is used to say that the constitution provides a different way to hold a president to account, and therefore in theory at least that could demonstrate there wasn’t an intention for a president to be prosecuted whilst in office.
I think the other big change from GE2017 for the stability of a Tory government will be what happens in Scotland.
The likely motivators for a Boris Bounce in England ("he seems like a good bloke", "he's socking it to those remainers", "he's promising more money for my hospital - in England") seem likely to play exactly in reverse in Scotland. And the party there seems to be feeling a bit cut off and disillusioned from Head Office (sorry.. its federal partner), manifested by Ruth jacking it in. I shouldn't imagine many surviving Scots Tories will be as nailed-on in the Brexit lobbies as the loyalists being lined up in the south.
TMay made 12 gains in Scotland on a distinctly sub-optimal night for her in 2017. Given the likelihood of a churn of seats holding back any English Tory gains (ie they'll win some and lose some), a big anti-Tory swing in Scotland could be fatal.
The latest Scotland only poll has the Tories holding 5 seats in Scotland, more than Cameron got in 2015 when he won a majority
Wales may hold the key to the Tories getting a majority, if things are tight. I think Labour is going to get an historic drubbing in the Midlands/Yorks/NW though.
The behaviour of Tribal Labour voters is the other great potential disruptor of UNS. If they fall back in because they usually do, it's game on for Lab. (They were hardly natural Blair supporters either). If they switch to Boris as they did to Thatcher in the 80s, he's probably heading for a win as long as they unseat a few Lab MPs rather than just reducing majorities.
IMO disillusioned voters often end up voting for whoever lines their pockets the most. In that respect if the rumour of no significant tax cuts from an incoming Boris Govt is true, he will have to come up with a different bag of 'goodies'.
More money for the NHS, a higher minimum wage and more money for the police under Boris and tax cuts will be proposed too to contrast with Corbyn's tax rises, there will be no repeat of May's 'dementia tax' disaster
And scrap HS2
That is subject to an ongoing review so expect a fudge
Fudging or worse, scrapping it would lose them any chance of gaining seats in the North, although it might help win a couple in Stoke and Warwickshire.
Now, I would hesistate to guess at what the founding fathers intended from their system, and of course in many ways they created a very robust system, but in a system about accountability of different parts of government, why would they have intended someone be immune from prosecution while in office?
They aren't immune, they can be tried by Congress.
I think the other big change from GE2017 for the stability of a Tory government will be what happens in Scotland.
TMay made 12 gains in Scotland on a distinctly sub-optimal night for her in 2017. Given the likelihood of a churn of seats holding back any English Tory gains (ie they'll win some and lose some), a big anti-Tory swing in Scotland could be fatal.
The latest Scotland only poll has the Tories holding 5 seats in Scotland, more than Cameron got in 2015 when he won a majority
Wales may hold the key to the Tories getting a majority, if things are tight. I think Labour is going to get an historic drubbing in the Midlands/Yorks/NW though.
The behaviour of Tribal Labour voters is the other great potential disruptor of UNS. If they fall back in because they usually do, it's game on for Lab. (They were hardly natural Blair supporters either). If they switch to Boris as they did to Thatcher in the 80s, he's probably heading for a win as long as they unseat a few Lab MPs rather than just reducing majorities.
IMO disillusioned voters often end up voting for whoever lines their pockets the most. In that respect if the rumour of no significant tax cuts from an incoming Boris Govt is true, he will have to come up with a different bag of 'goodies'.
More money for the NHS, a higher minimum wage and more money for the police under Boris and tax cuts will be proposed too to contrast with Corbyn's tax rises, there will be no repeat of May's 'dementia tax' disaster
And scrap HS2
That is subject to an ongoing review so expect a fudge
Fudging or worse, scrapping it would lose them any chance of gaining seats in the North, although it might help win a couple in Stoke and Warwickshire.
Not at all. It is a project to benefit London. In the north we want investment to improve connectivity between northern cities. Leeds to Manchester takes twice as long as Reading to London. For the same distance. Leeds to Nottingham takes as long as Leeds to London. Pacers will continue into 2020. Get that sorted.
Now, I would hesistate to guess at what the founding fathers intended from their system, and of course in many ways they created a very robust system, but in a system about accountability of different parts of government, why would they have intended someone be immune from prosecution while in office?
They aren't immune, they can be tried by Congress.
And they thought that would be sufficient? When politics is at play? No one can forsee every outcome, but that sounds really dumb.
I still can't quite get over how either side in recent weeks has contrived to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
One month ago, on the 24th September, Lady Howe delivered the Supreme Court's damming verdict on prorogation. In the days that immediately followed, Johnson was on the ropes. Had the Opposition of got their act together they would probably have won a VONC and booted Johnson from office. They chose instead to dangle him over the precipice and have some fun at his expense.
Fools. Because Johnson achieved the highly improbable feat of securing a Brexit deal. He returned triumphant, the right wing press in adoration and awe and suddenly the country, indeed Europe, was genuflecting before him. Until that nice Mr Oliver Letwin came up with the bright idea of an amendment which put an enormous spanner in the works. Still, all might not have been lost. Even up until two days ago, Johnson still had it in the bag. His deal was close to being voted through. All he needed to do was swallow a little pride over his self-imposed deadline, seek a technical extension and let the Opposition have a few amendments, some of which would never have succeeded anyway.
But, no. Of course not. Compromise and magnanimity are not words that have made it onto Johnson's otherwise large lexicon. He couldn't bring himself graciously to let the deadline slip by a couple of weeks, nor to let scrutiny take place in Parliament. He had a tantrum instead (how Trump-esque).
Fool. He is now overseeing the singularly bizarre phenomenon of Jeremy Corbyn being the one pushing for Brexit to get done with the deal that, erm, Boris Johnson negotiated, whilst Johnson appears to be the one delaying Brexit.
You cannot make this up.
I keep saying it but the WA is poor but the WAIB is terrible. It may eventually be better for both to pass and the authors have to live with the outcome but there are some serious anti democratic elements of the WAIB.
I think the other big change from GE2017 for the stability of a Tory government will be what happens in Scotland.
The likely motivators for a Boris Bounce in England ("he seems like a good bloke", "he's socking it to those remainers", "he's promising more money for my hospital - in England") seem likely to play exactly in reverse in Scotland. And the party there seems to be feeling a bit cut off and disillusioned from Head Office (sorry.. its federal partner), manifested by Ruth jacking it in. I shouldn't imagine many surviving Scots Tories will be as nailed-on in the Brexit lobbies as the loyalists being lined up in the south.
TMay made 12 gains in Scotland on a distinctly sub-optimal night for her in 2017. Given the likelihood of a churn of seats holding back any English Tory gains (ie they'll win some and lose some), a big anti-Tory swing in Scotland could be fatal.
The latest Scotland only poll has the Tories holding 5 seats in Scotland, more than Cameron got in 2015 when he won a majority
Wales may hold the key to the Tories getting a majority, if things are tight. I think Labour is going to get an historic drubbing in the Midlands/Yorks/NW though.
The behaviour of Tribal Labour voters is the other great potential disruptor of UNS. If they fall back in because they usually do, it's game on for Lab. (They were hardly natural Blair supporters either). If they switch to Boris as they did to Thatcher in the 80s, he's probably heading for a win as long as they unseat a few Lab MPs rather than just reducing majorities.
IMO disillusioned voters often end up voting for whoever lines their pockets the most. In that respect if the rumour of no significant tax cuts from an incoming Boris Govt is true, he will have to come up with a different bag of 'goodies'.
More money for the NHS, a higher minimum wage and more money for the police under Boris and tax cuts will be proposed too to contrast with Corbyn's tax rises, there will be no repeat of May's 'dementia tax' disaster
And scrap HS2
That is subject to an ongoing review so expect a fudge
What the Tories will win in retained votes (and I suspect the seats are safe anyway) in the home counties would be lost in northern constituencies who still want HS2.
I think the other big change from GE2017 for the stability of a Tory government will be what happens in Scotland.
The likely motivators for a Boris Bounce in England ("he seems like a good bloke", "he's socking it to those remainers", "he's promising more money for my hospital - in England") seem likely to play exactly in reverse in Scotland. And the party there seems to be feeling a bit cut off and disillusioned from Head Office (sorry.. its federal partner), manifested by Ruth jacking it in. I shouldn't imagine many surviving Scots Tories will be as nailed-on in the Brexit lobbies as the loyalists being lined up in the south.
TMay made 12 gains in Scotland on a distinctly sub-optimal night for her in 2017. Given the likelihood of a churn of seats holding back any English Tory gains (ie they'll win some and lose some), a big anti-Tory swing in Scotland could be fatal.
The latest Scotland only poll has the Tories holding 5 seats in Scotland, more than Cameron got in 2015 when he won a majority
Wales may hold the key to the Tories getting a majority, if things are tight. I think Labour is going to get an historic drubbing in the Midlands/Yorks/NW though.
The behaviour of Tribal Labour voters is the other great potential disruptor of UNS. If they fall back in because they usually do, it's game on for Lab. (They were hardly natural Blair supporters either). If they switch to Boris as they did to Thatcher in the 80s, he's probably heading for a win as long as they unseat a few Lab MPs rather than just reducing majorities.
IMO disillusioned voters often end up voting for whoever lines their pockets the most. In that respect if the rumour of no significant tax cuts from an incoming Boris Govt is true, he will have to come up with a different bag of 'goodies'.
More money for the NHS, a higher minimum wage and more money for the police under Boris and tax cuts will be proposed too to contrast with Corbyn's tax rises, there will be no repeat of May's 'dementia tax' disaster
Plus Priti will go hard on crime. The Great British public is more hang em and flog em than the politicians.
Especially those who are the most likely to be the victims of crime.
Labour’s best strategy is to hold off on an election until after Christmas and see what comes up. No point going all in now when they are holding the equivalent of 7-2 off suit.
If the EU says 31st January and there is no clear path to the deal Boris and the SNP will call the election
And if Macron wins in the Council it is academic for a GE as he wants the 30th November, take it or leave it
I can think of no one here (Cheshire) who supports HS2
Cheshire is not really where I was thinking of, anyway, even though it will of course have one of the HS2 hubs in it. I was thinking of the semi-urban areas around Manchester and Leeds which will benefit from it.
It isn’t a hot-button issue round here outside Rugeley, which it will run past. But we do need it badly. We’ve just had major cuts to our local services due to capacity issues on the WCML south of Rugby.
I think the other big change from GE2017 for the stability of a Tory government will be what happens in Scotland.
TMay made 12 gains in Scotland on a distinctly sub-optimal night for her in 2017. Given the likelihood of a churn of seats holding back any English Tory gains (ie they'll win some and lose some), a big anti-Tory swing in Scotland could be fatal.
The latest Scotland only poll has the Tories holding 5 seats in Scotland, more than Cameron got in 2015 when he won a majority
Wales may hold the key to the Tories getting a majority, if things are tight. I think Labour is going to get an historic drubbing in the Midlands/Yorks/NW though.
The behaviour of Tribal Labour voters is the other great potential disruptor of UNS. If they fall back in because they usually do, it's game on for Lab. (They were hardly natural Blair supporters either). If they switch to Boris as they did to Thatcher in the 80s, he's probably heading for a win as long as they unseat a few Lab MPs rather than just reducing majorities.
IMO disillusioned voters often end up voting for whoever lines their pockets the most. In that respect if the rumour of no significant tax cuts from an incoming Boris Govt is true, he will have to come up with a different bag of 'goodies'.
More money for the NHS, a higher minimum wage and more money for the police under Boris and tax cuts will be proposed too to contrast with Corbyn's tax rises, there will be no repeat of May's 'dementia tax' disaster
And scrap HS2
That is subject to an ongoing review so expect a fudge
Fudging or worse, scrapping it would lose them any chance of gaining seats in the North, although it might help win a couple in Stoke and Warwickshire.
Not at all. It is a project to benefit London. In the north we want investment to improve connectivity between northern cities. Leeds to Manchester takes twice as long as Reading to London. For the same distance. Leeds to Nottingham takes as long as Leeds to London. Pacers will continue into 2020. Get that sorted.
You do know that part of it is building links between the northern cities, don’t you?
Labour’s best strategy is to hold off on an election until after Christmas and see what comes up. No point going all in now when they are holding the equivalent of 7-2 off suit.
I get a stronger sense today that any election will be in the New Year.Unlikely before 23rd January.
Yes, the campaign wouldn't be able to properly start until the second week of January. So probably even later — the middle of February. You can't run an election campaign between Christmas and the New Year.
1973-74 was considered a national emergency, after OPEC and the miners together caused a severe energy shortage. But we didn't have an election until 28th Feb. = roughly when the light returns (i.e. day length is similar to mid October).
Brex(sh)it is totally self-inflicted. As such, to try to force voters with winter blues - 30% reportedly suffer - to go to a polling station is cruel and unusual punishment.
I think the other big change from GE2017 for the stability of a Tory government will be what happens in Scotland.
The likely motivators for a Boris Bounce in England ("he seems like a good bloke", "he's socking it to those remainers", "he's promising more money for my hospital - in England") seem likely to play exactly in reverse in Scotland. And the party there seems to be feeling a bit cut off and disillusioned from Head Office (sorry.. its federal partner), manifested by Ruth jacking it in. I shouldn't imagine many surviving Scots Tories will be as nailed-on in the Brexit lobbies as the loyalists being lined up in the south.
TMay made 12 gains in Scotland on a distinctly sub-optimal night for her in 2017. Given the likelihood of a churn of seats holding back any English Tory gains (ie they'll win some and lose some), a big anti-Tory swing in Scotland could be fatal.
The latest Scotland only poll has the Tories holding 5 seats in Scotland, more than Cameron got in 2015 when he won a majority
Wales may hold the key to the Tories getting a majority, if things are tight. I think Labour is going to get an historic drubbing in the Midlands/Yorks/NW though.
The behaviour of Tribal Labour voters is the other great potential disruptor of UNS. If they fall back in because they usually do, it's game on for Lab. (They were hardly natural Blair supporters either). If they switch to Boris as they did to Thatcher in the 80s, he's probably heading for a win as long as they unseat a few Lab MPs rather than just reducing majorities.
IMO disillusioned voters often end up voting for whoever lines their pockets the most. In that respect if the rumour of no significant tax cuts from an incoming Boris Govt is true, he will have to come up with a different bag of 'goodies'.
More money for the NHS, a higher minimum wage and more money for the police under Boris and tax cuts will be proposed too to contrast with Corbyn's tax rises, there will be no repeat of May's 'dementia tax' disaster
And scrap HS2
That is subject to an ongoing review so expect a fudge
What the Tories will win in retained votes (and I suspect the seats are safe anyway) in the home counties would be lost in northern constituencies who still want HS2.
HS2 retention will win ZERO votes. Cancellation = thousands.
Apparently there will be no special EU summit to discuss the extension .
A decision will be made by EU ambassadors on Friday .
I’m mildly surprised, given how closely EU officialdom claim to be attuned to British politics, that they haven’t realised how logistically awkward that is as a date for making a decision.
I get a stronger sense today that any election will be in the New Year.Unlikely before 23rd January.
Yes, the campaign wouldn't be able to properly start until the second week of January. So probably even later — the middle of February. You can't run an election campaign between Christmas and the New Year.
In the distant past we did have January elections in 1906 and 1910. More recently , we had an election on 28th February in 1974.Heath very nearly called the election for 7th February before changing his mind in mid-January. On the other hand, a mere 3 weeks notice was required at the time.
Now, I would hesistate to guess at what the founding fathers intended from their system, and of course in many ways they created a very robust system, but in a system about accountability of different parts of government, why would they have intended someone be immune from prosecution while in office?
They aren't immune, they can be tried by Congress.
And they thought that would be sufficient? When politics is at play? No one can forsee every outcome, but that sounds really dumb.
They made it clear that impeachment was to be a political rather than judicial process. If Trumo shoots someone on Fifth Avenue (memo to self, steer clear of the Trump Tower), is impeached by the House but the Senate decides not to remove him from office, then that is in accordance with what the Founding Fathers intended.
Apparently there will be no special EU summit to discuss the extension .
A decision will be made by EU ambassadors on Friday .
No that is so wrong.
The decision is not the Ambassadors, it is the leaders and it is hoped it will be done in exchange of letters between them and Tusk by friday, otherwise a full council meeting will be arranged
Macron is digging in with unnamed others but hopefully the details will be announced by Tusk, following his formal written response ( signed !!!! ) to the PM is received
What I do know is that for Corbyn to become PM he will need to be perched on top of the most volatile, disparate collection of 'partners' that will ever have been assembled to form a government.
You don't 'know' that. You may or may not prove correct but you don't know it. That's not me being pernickety for the sake of it. The whole thing is currently up in the air and I could see one perfectly plausible Labour coalition that would be a lot more stable the current situation.
Welcome Sir Clive. Pb.com is indeed essential reading. It's my go-to for informed political news these days alongside half a dozen very good journalists on twitter.
Shall we compare notes on the latter? My top 6 in no particular order are:
Lewis Goodall Tom Newton Dunn Beth Rigby Sam Coates Sky Robert Peston Laura Kunesberg
Is Lewis Goodall meant to be a straight news person or a commentator or something in between ? Genuine Q as I don't get Sky. I find his tweets interesting, but am always confused as to whether he is reporting or giving his own views.
I think the other big change from GE2017 for the stability of a Tory government will be what happens in Scotland.
TMay made 12 gains in Scotland on a distinctly sub-optimal night for her in 2017. Given the likelihood of a churn of seats holding back any English Tory gains (ie they'll win some and lose some), a big anti-Tory swing in Scotland could be fatal.
The latest Scotland only poll has the Tories holding 5 seats in Scotland, more than Cameron got in 2015 when he won a majority
Wales may hold the key to the Tories getting a majority, if things are tight. I think Labour is going to get an historic drubbing in the Midlands/Yorks/NW though.
.
IMO disillusioned voters often end up voting for whoever lines their pockets the most. In that respect if the rumour of no significant tax cuts from an incoming Boris Govt is true, he will have to come up with a different bag of 'goodies'.
More money for the NHS, a higher minimum wage and more money for the police under Boris and tax cuts will be proposed too to contrast with Corbyn's tax rises, there will be no repeat of May's 'dementia tax' disaster
And scrap HS2
That is subject to an ongoing review so expect a fudge
Fudging or worse, scrapping it would lose them any chance of gaining seats in the North, although it might help win a couple in Stoke and Warwickshire.
Not at all. It is a project to benefit London. In the north we want investment to improve connectivity between northern cities. Leeds to Manchester takes twice as long as Reading to London. For the same distance. Leeds to Nottingham takes as long as Leeds to London. Pacers will continue into 2020. Get that sorted.
You do know that part of it is building links between the northern cities, don’t you?
It won't reduce the journey time to Nottingham when the station will be at Toton and you will have to connect onto a local dmu or a tram to get into the city. And trans-Pennine journeys will not benefit at all.
And while it might be quicker to get to Birmingham, the trains will stop at a separate station, so getting a conection to anywhere else will be a balls ache, so you might as well stick with the normal services.
Apparently there will be no special EU summit to discuss the extension .
A decision will be made by EU ambassadors on Friday .
I’m mildly surprised, given how closely EU officialdom claim to be attuned to British politics, that they haven’t realised how logistically awkward that is as a date for making a decision.
It seems to be the usual thing of we're waiting for them to make the next move and they're waiting for us to make the next move and in the interim nothing really happens which is no advantage to anyone.
I think the other big change from GE2017 for the stability of a Tory government will be what happens in Scotland.
The likely motivators for a Boris Bounce in England ("he seems like a good bloke", "he's socking it to those remainers", "he's promising more money for my hospital - in England") seem likely to play exactly in reverse in Scotland. And the party there seems to be feeling a bit cut off and disillusioned from Head Office (sorry.. its federal partner), manifested by Ruth jacking it in. I shouldn't imagine many surviving Scots Tories will be as nailed-on in the Brexit lobbies as the loyalists being lined up in the south.
TMay made 12 gains in Scotland on a distinctly sub-optimal night for her in 2017. Given the likelihood of a churn of seats holding back any English Tory gains (ie they'll win some and lose some), a big anti-Tory swing in Scotland could be fatal.
The latest Scotland only poll has the Tories holding 5 seats in Scotland, more than Cameron got in 2015 when he won a majority
Wales may hold the key to the Tories getting a majority, if things are tight. I think Labour is going to get an historic drubbing in the Midlands/Yorks/NW though.
The behaviour of Tribal Labour voters is the other great potential disruptor of UNS. If they fall back in because they usually do, it's game on for Lab. (They were hardly natural Blair supporters either). If they switch to Boris as they did to Thatcher in the 80s, he's probably heading for a win as long as they unseat a few Lab MPs rather than just reducing majorities.
IMO disillusioned voters often end up voting for whoever lines their pockets the most. In that respect if the rumour of no significant tax cuts from an incoming Boris Govt is true, he will have to come up with a different bag of 'goodies'.
More money for the NHS, a higher minimum wage and more money for the police under Boris and tax cuts will be proposed too to contrast with Corbyn's tax rises, there will be no repeat of May's 'dementia tax' disaster
And scrap HS2
That is subject to an ongoing review so expect a fudge
What the Tories will win in retained votes (and I suspect the seats are safe anyway) in the home counties would be lost in northern constituencies who still want HS2.
Apparently there will be no special EU summit to discuss the extension .
A decision will be made by EU ambassadors on Friday .
I’m mildly surprised, given how closely EU officialdom claim to be attuned to British politics, that they haven’t realised how logistically awkward that is as a date for making a decision.
Which suggests they’ll agree to the 31st January with some flexibility as Johnson is then legally obliged to accept that .
What I do know is that for Corbyn to become PM he will need to be perched on top of the most volatile, disparate collection of 'partners' that will ever have been assembled to form a government.
You don't 'know' that. You may or may not prove correct but you don't know it. That's not me being pernickety for the sake of it. The whole thing is currently up in the air and I could see one perfectly plausible Labour coalition that would be a lot more stable the current situation.
Welcome Sir Clive. Pb.com is indeed essential reading. It's my go-to for informed political news these days alongside half a dozen very good journalists on twitter.
Shall we compare notes on the latter? My top 6 in no particular order are:
Lewis Goodall Tom Newton Dunn Beth Rigby Sam Coates Sky Robert Peston Laura Kunesberg
Is Lewis Goodall meant to be a straight news person or a commentator or something in between ? Genuine Q as I don't get Sky. I find his tweets interesting, but am always confused as to whether he is reporting or giving his own views.
I watch sky news most of the time but find Steven Dixon the most biased presenter they have he is appalling and interviews with that bias blatantly visible.
Apparently there will be no special EU summit to discuss the extension .
A decision will be made by EU ambassadors on Friday .
I’m mildly surprised, given how closely EU officialdom claim to be attuned to British politics, that they haven’t realised how logistically awkward that is as a date for making a decision.
It seems to be the usual thing of we're waiting for them to make the next move and they're waiting for us to make the next move and in the interim nothing really happens which is no advantage to anyone.
It’s like the diplomatic version of a slow bicycle race.
That is subject to an ongoing review so expect a fudge Fudging or worse, scrapping it would lose them any chance of gaining seats in the North, although it might help win a couple in Stoke and Warwickshire.
Just say that
1. HS2 is scrapped, as the economic case made at the time it was commissioned no longer stacks up and
2. An East-West fast service in the north will be commissioned instead, assuming that an economic case can be made, linking Newcastle/Leeds/Sheffield/Manchester/Liverpool
Apparently there will be no special EU summit to discuss the extension .
A decision will be made by EU ambassadors on Friday .
I’m mildly surprised, given how closely EU officialdom claim to be attuned to British politics, that they haven’t realised how logistically awkward that is as a date for making a decision.
Which suggests they’ll agree to the 31st January with some flexibility as Johnson is then legally obliged to accept that .
The Brexit deadlock and delay from us and the EU can often come down to 'which option is easiest?' I will be astonished if they don't go with the date our law requested and which takes away any further arguing over if it will be accepted or not.
Apparently there will be no special EU summit to discuss the extension .
A decision will be made by EU ambassadors on Friday .
I’m mildly surprised, given how closely EU officialdom claim to be attuned to British politics, that they haven’t realised how logistically awkward that is as a date for making a decision.
It seems to be the usual thing of we're waiting for them to make the next move and they're waiting for us to make the next move and in the interim nothing really happens which is no advantage to anyone.
It’s like the diplomatic version of a slow bicycle race.
Apparently there will be no special EU summit to discuss the extension .
A decision will be made by EU ambassadors on Friday .
I’m mildly surprised, given how closely EU officialdom claim to be attuned to British politics, that they haven’t realised how logistically awkward that is as a date for making a decision.
Sky did say that if Tusk gives the leaders response on friday it would be when the HOC are not sitting
Apparently there will be no special EU summit to discuss the extension .
A decision will be made by EU ambassadors on Friday .
I’m mildly surprised, given how closely EU officialdom claim to be attuned to British politics, that they haven’t realised how logistically awkward that is as a date for making a decision.
Sky did say that if Tusk gives the leaders response on friday it would be when the HOC are not sitting
That gives Parliament four working days to get to a 5 December election. They won’t manage it.
I get a stronger sense today that any election will be in the New Year.Unlikely before 23rd January.
Yes, the campaign wouldn't be able to properly start until the second week of January. So probably even later — the middle of February. You can't run an election campaign between Christmas and the New Year.
1973-74 was considered a national emergency, after OPEC and the miners together caused a severe energy shortage. But we didn't have an election until 28th Feb. = roughly when the light returns (i.e. day length is similar to mid October).
Brex(sh)it is totally self-inflicted. As such, to try to force voters with winter blues - 30% reportedly suffer - to go to a polling station is cruel and unusual punishment.
Labour’s best strategy is to hold off on an election until after Christmas and see what comes up. No point going all in now when they are holding the equivalent of 7-2 off suit.
Something will turn up.
Yes, we could see a socialist country making a really good go and providing higher living standards than comparable capitalist neighbours, settling the economic argument in Corbyn's favour.
Or the Equality and Human Rights Commission might turn up with a report saying Labour are ocean-going, copper-bottomed, Berger-deselecting, Yaqoob-endorsing antisemites, and the ensuing litigation could bankrupt the party.
Apparently there will be no special EU summit to discuss the extension .
A decision will be made by EU ambassadors on Friday .
No that is so wrong.
The decision is not the Ambassadors, it is the leaders and it is hoped it will be done in exchange of letters between them and Tusk by friday, otherwise a full council meeting will be arranged
Macron is digging in with unnamed others but hopefully the details will be announced by Tusk, following his formal written response ( signed !!!! ) to the PM is received
This is way above Ambassadors pay grade
I know that , the EU ambassadors are there to basically agree through their bosses . Macron is away at the moment in Reunion which complicates matters .
Purely from a media point , it’s easier to agree the 3 month request whilst not being at a summit .
Those summits have a lot of coverage . I really don’t think 27 EU leaders are in the mood to change their plans to turn up to a summit to just deal with an extension request .
Apparently there will be no special EU summit to discuss the extension .
A decision will be made by EU ambassadors on Friday .
No that is so wrong.
The decision is not the Ambassadors, it is the leaders and it is hoped it will be done in exchange of letters between them and Tusk by friday, otherwise a full council meeting will be arranged
Macron is digging in with unnamed others but hopefully the details will be announced by Tusk, following his formal written response ( signed !!!! ) to the PM is received
This is way above Ambassadors pay grade
But your ABDPJohnson is an ill-mannered oaf, who does not even have the courtesy to sign his own letters. Why should the other heads of government give up good time for the likes of him?
In 2016, Hillary owned the DNC. She locked up the superdelegates. Her people were in positions of control throughout the party.
Now, they're all gone.
She is the woman who lost to Donald Trump. She is aged and increasingly infirm, and wouldn't want to put herself through a bruising election campaign again. She's hated by a substantial minority in the Democratic Party. She has no organisation in Iowa or New Hampshire. She has no money.
She would get null delegates in Iowa. None. Zero. Nada. Zilch.
Anyone who is backing her - even at 80-1 - is throwing their money down the toilet.
Does take two to make a market, though.
I think some people are assuming that because she fought Obama in 2008, and lost, and fought Trump in 2016, and lost, she’s a bit obsessed by it, crazy and arrogant enough to want to run again and, y’know, third time lucky and all that.
Even if she wanted to run again, which she doesn't, she'd get slaughtered in the Primaries.
She's not new and shiny (Buttigieg) or untainted by defeat to Trump (Biden) or in tune with party activists (Warren and Sanders).
She's a scandal ridden old lady with appalling negatives, who can't campaign to save her life, and who no longer has any sway in the Democratic Party.
Look at who gets invited to DNC leadership events. Five years ago, Hillary was the star speaker. Now she's forgotten. There are new relationships in place. Nowadays Cory Booker and Mitch Landrieu are the guys who get invited. She's a nobody in the Democratic Party, a nonperson who's existence has been erased.
Those who put money on her might as well take the cash, douse it in petrol and burn it. The money would then at least provide something useful (heat, light and moderate entertainment).
To play devils advocate, the argument would be that she still has close relationships with a lot of Democratic megadonors, especially Wall St ones, who really don't want Warren to be President. If things really start going off the rails with Biden (and let's face it he hasn't been impressive thus far) then they need a Plan B
If Hillary got in, she would just through name recognition easily clear debate and fundraising thresholds and be a top tier candidate on entry. And if Biden wasn't in the race, she'd pick up much of his support and probably bounce Klobuchar at least out of the race. None of this is to say she doesn't have her failings, but if you were looking for a credible not Warren candidate at short notice then she could fit the bill.
I think the other big change from GE2017 for the stability of a Tory government will be what happens in Scotland.
The likely motivators for a Boris Bounce in England ("he seems like a good bloke", "he's socking it to those remainers", "he's promising more money for my hospital - in England") seem likely to play exactly in reverse in Scotland. And the party there seems to be feeling a bit cut off and disillusioned from Head Office (sorry.. its federal partner), manifested by Ruth jacking it in. I shouldn't imagine many surviving Scots Tories will be as nailed-on in the Brexit lobbies as the loyalists being lined up in the south.
TMay made 12 gains in Scotland on a distinctly sub-optimal night for her in 2017. Given the likelihood of a churn of seats holding back any English Tory gains (ie they'll win some and lose some), a big anti-Tory swing in Scotland could be fatal.
The latest Scotland only poll has the Tories holding 5 seats in Scotland, more than Cameron got in 2015 when he won a majority
Wales may hold the key to the Tories getting a majority, if things are tight. I think Labour is going to get an historic drubbing in the Midlands/Yorks/NW though.
The behaviour of Tribal Labour voters is the other great potential disruptor of UNS. If they fall back in because they usually do, it's game on for Lab. (They were hardly natural Blair supporters either). If they switch to Boris as they did to Thatcher in the 80s, he's probably heading for a win as long as they unseat a few Lab MPs rather than just reducing majorities.
IMO disillusioned voters often end up voting for whoever lines their pockets the most. In that respect if the rumour of no significant tax cuts from an incoming Boris Govt is true, he will have to come up with a different bag of 'goodies'.
More money for the NHS, a higher minimum wage and more money for the police under Boris and tax cuts will be proposed too to contrast with Corbyn's tax rises, there will be no repeat of May's 'dementia tax' disaster
And scrap HS2
That is subject to an ongoing review so expect a fudge
What the Tories will win in retained votes (and I suspect the seats are safe anyway) in the home counties would be lost in northern constituencies who still want HS2.
I know of nobody here in northern England who wants HS2 (and it is a conversation I have very regularly). Everyone thinks it is a giant waste of money. I really do not think it is a vote loser.
I think the other big change from GE2017 for the stability of a Tory government will be what happens in Scotland.
The likely motivators for a Boris Bounce in England ("he seems like a good bloke", "he's socking it to those remainers", "he's promising more money for my hospital - in England") seem likely to play exactly in reverse in Scotland. And the party there seems to be feeling a bit cut off and disillusioned from Head Office (sorry.. its federal partner), manifested by Ruth jacking it in. I shouldn't imagine many surviving Scots Tories will be as nailed-on in the Brexit lobbies as the loyalists being lined up in the south.
TMay made 12 gains in Scotland on a distinctly sub-optimal night for her in 2017. Given the likelihood of a churn of seats holding back any English Tory gains (ie they'll win some and lose some), a big anti-Tory swing in Scotland could be fatal.
The latest Scotland only poll has the Tories holding 5 seats in Scotland, more than Cameron got in 2015 when he won a majority
Wales may hold the key to the Tories getting a majority, if things are tight. I think Labour is going to get an historic drubbing in the Midlands/Yorks/NW though.
The behaviour of Tribal Labour voters is the other great potential disruptor of UNS. If they fall back in because they usually do, it's game on for Lab. (They were hardly natural Blair supporters either). If they switch to Boris as they did to Thatcher in the 80s, he's probably heading for a win as long as they unseat a few Lab MPs rather than just reducing majorities.
IMO disillusioned voters often end up voting for whoever lines their pockets the most. In that respect if the rumour of no significant tax cuts from an incoming Boris Govt is true, he will have to come up with a different bag of 'goodies'.
More money for the NHS, a higher minimum wage and more money for the police under Boris and tax cuts will be proposed too to contrast with Corbyn's tax rises, there will be no repeat of May's 'dementia tax' disaster
And scrap HS2
That is subject to an ongoing review so expect a fudge
Fudging or worse, scrapping it would lose them any chance of gaining seats in the North, although it might help win a couple in Stoke and Warwickshire.
What I do know is that for Corbyn to become PM he will need to be perched on top of the most volatile, disparate collection of 'partners' that will ever have been assembled to form a government.
You don't 'know' that. You may or may not prove correct but you don't know it. That's not me being pernickety for the sake of it. The whole thing is currently up in the air and I could see one perfectly plausible Labour coalition that would be a lot more stable the current situation.
Welcome Sir Clive. Pb.com is indeed essential reading. It's my go-to for informed political news these days alongside half a dozen very good journalists on twitter.
Shall we compare notes on the latter? My top 6 in no particular order are:
Lewis Goodall Tom Newton Dunn Beth Rigby Sam Coates Sky Robert Peston Laura Kunesberg
Is Lewis Goodall meant to be a straight news person or a commentator or something in between ? Genuine Q as I don't get Sky. I find his tweets interesting, but am always confused as to whether he is reporting or giving his own views.
He has a track record on the left and usually talks nonsense. He is very poor, others on Sky are better including Sam Coates
Apparently there will be no special EU summit to discuss the extension .
A decision will be made by EU ambassadors on Friday .
No that is so wrong.
The decision is not the Ambassadors, it is the leaders and it is hoped it will be done in exchange of letters between them and Tusk by friday, otherwise a full council meeting will be arranged
Macron is digging in with unnamed others but hopefully the details will be announced by Tusk, following his formal written response ( signed !!!! ) to the PM is received
This is way above Ambassadors pay grade
But your ABDPJohnson is an ill-mannered oaf, who does not even have the courtesy to sign his own letters. Why should the other heads of government give up good time for the likes of him?
Yawn. As it happens there are reports that he gets on quite well with several EU Heads of Government who have complimented him.
Apparently there will be no special EU summit to discuss the extension .
A decision will be made by EU ambassadors on Friday .
I’m mildly surprised, given how closely EU officialdom claim to be attuned to British politics, that they haven’t realised how logistically awkward that is as a date for making a decision.
Sky did say that if Tusk gives the leaders response on friday it would be when the HOC are not sitting
That gives Parliament four working days to get to a 5 December election. They won’t manage it.
They can move very fast when they feel they need to. What's the alternative to not agreeing to December 5th in 4 days? Agreeing to do something useful and not have a GE? Fat chance.
Labour’s best strategy is to hold off on an election until after Christmas and see what comes up. No point going all in now when they are holding the equivalent of 7-2 off suit.
If the EU says 31st January and there is no clear path to the deal Boris and the SNP will call the election
And if Macron wins in the Council it is academic for a GE as he wants the 30th November, take it or leave it
As I asked earlier, show your working. Show me how we get an election this side of Christmas (don’t just parrot some over excitable hack or hackette from Sky News).
I still can't quite get over how either side in recent weeks has contrived to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
One month ago, on the 24th September, Lady Howe delivered the Supreme Court's damming verdict on prorogation. In the days that immediately followed, Johnson was on the ropes. Had the Opposition of got their act together they would probably have won a VONC and booted Johnson from office. They chose instead to dangle him over the precipice and have some fun at his expense.
Fools. Because Johnson achieved the highly improbable feat of securing a Brexit deal. He returned triumphant, the right wing press in adoration and awe and suddenly the country, indeed Europe, was genuflecting before him. Until that nice Mr Oliver Letwin came up with the bright idea of an amendment which put an enormous spanner in the works. Still, all might not have been lost. Even up until two days ago, Johnson still had it in the bag. His deal was close to being voted through. All he needed to do was swallow a little pride over his self-imposed deadline, seek a technical extension and let the Opposition have a few amendments, some of which would never have succeeded anyway.
But, no. Of course not. Compromise and magnanimity are not words that have made it onto Johnson's otherwise large lexicon. He couldn't bring himself graciously to let the deadline slip by a couple of weeks, nor to let scrutiny take place in Parliament. He had a tantrum instead (how Trump-esque).
Fool. He is now overseeing the singularly bizarre phenomenon of Jeremy Corbyn being the one pushing for Brexit to get done with the deal that, erm, Boris Johnson negotiated, whilst Johnson appears to be the one delaying Brexit.
You cannot make this up.
I keep saying it but the WA is poor but the WAIB is terrible. It may eventually be better for both to pass and the authors have to live with the outcome but there are some serious anti democratic elements of the WAIB.
The most sensible explanation for all this would be that the principal actors in this show have these intentions: Boris: Remain and stay PM. Letwin: Remain. Corbyn; Don't care if Remain or Leave but must avoid being PM. What they have in common is that most of these aims have to be kept secret.
Labour’s best strategy is to hold off on an election until after Christmas and see what comes up. No point going all in now when they are holding the equivalent of 7-2 off suit.
Something will turn up.
Maybe. Not sure I have your confidence. But I have been short stacked on the bubble and landed KK, so who knows?
That is subject to an ongoing review so expect a fudge
Fudging or worse, scrapping it would lose them any chance of gaining seats in the North, although it might help win a couple in Stoke and Warwickshire.
Just say that
1. HS2 is scrapped, as the economic case made at the time it was commissioned no longer stacks up and
2. An East-West fast service in the north will be commissioned instead, assuming that an economic case can be made, linking Newcastle/Leeds/Sheffield/Manchester/Liverpool
Everybody happy.
Whilst I know nothing about railways beyond long distance commuting for eight years is the problem actually capacity needed for local and freight services between London and the midlands and beyond?
Apparently there will be no special EU summit to discuss the extension .
A decision will be made by EU ambassadors on Friday .
No that is so wrong.
The decision is not the Ambassadors, it is the leaders and it is hoped it will be done in exchange of letters between them and Tusk by friday, otherwise a full council meeting will be arranged
Macron is digging in with unnamed others but hopefully the details will be announced by Tusk, following his formal written response ( signed !!!! ) to the PM is received
This is way above Ambassadors pay grade
But your ABDPJohnson is an ill-mannered oaf, who does not even have the courtesy to sign his own letters. Why should the other heads of government give up good time for the likes of him?
Are you really trying to suggest his lack of signing of the extension request letter has any relevance at all to EU leaders? His ill manners are pretty obvious, but I'm to believe hard nosed fellow leaders and hardened diplomatic animals will alter their intended behaviour one iota because he lacked the 'courtesy' to sign his own letters? We'd best hope he never emails anyone, the lack of courtesy from no signature would drive them mad!
Comments
"I guess I just care too much.."
From what I understand, it would seem that using quantum computing to encrypt things has the interesting property that if it is broken, then the intended recipient won't be able to de-crypt, which means they will know they've been compromised.
Welcome!
A working majority is fine and he gets brexit through seeing off no deal
He also has a good domestic policy agenda but the principle reason for supporting the party is to see Corbyn never gets near to power. He makes Boris look a saint and that is something
And ideologies presumably - conservative one minute and liberal the next. And I always thought it was voters that are fickle.
Soon they’ll want guarantees an asteroid won’t hit the planet !
Perhaps their supporters should ask this question , if Labour are so worried about this deal the only way to stop it is to have an election and win that or at least form a minority government .
Their Remain voters need to ask , an election is the absolute last chance to stop Brexit .
Sticking some EU ref on the deal means zip if there’s no government willing to enact the legislation.
As a Remainer and normal Labour voter one things for sure the Lib Dems even if Brexit happens are going to make hay out of this .
Firstly the deal gets over the line because of Labour votes .
Secondly , Labour had the chance to have an election and stop Brexit but stood by and watched as the deal went through .
https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1187030746973769729?s=19
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/10/23/stonewall-splits-accused-promoting-trans-agenda-expense-gay/
Pretty sure I got that one right.
One month ago, on the 24th September, Lady Hale delivered the Supreme Court's damming verdict on prorogation. In the days that immediately followed, Johnson was on the ropes. Had the Opposition of got their act together they would probably have won a VONC and booted Johnson from office. They chose instead to dangle him over the precipice and have some fun at his expense.
Fools: because Johnson achieved the highly improbable feat of securing a Brexit deal. He returned triumphant, the right wing press in adoration and awe and suddenly the country, indeed Europe, was genuflecting before him. Until that nice Mr Oliver Letwin came up with the bright idea of an amendment which put an enormous spanner in the works. Still, all might not have been lost. Even up until two days ago, Johnson still had it in the bag. His deal was close to being voted through. All he needed to do was swallow a little pride over his self-imposed deadline, seek a technical extension and let the Opposition have a few amendments, some of which would never have succeeded anyway.
But, no. Of course not. Compromise and magnanimity are not words that have made it onto Johnson's otherwise large lexicon. He couldn't bring himself graciously to let the deadline slip by a couple of weeks, nor to let scrutiny take place in Parliament. He had a tantrum instead (how Trump-esque).
Fool. He is now overseeing the singularly bizarre phenomenon of Jeremy Corbyn being the one pushing for Brexit to get done with the deal that, erm, Boris Johnson negotiated, whilst Johnson appears to be the one delaying Brexit.
You cannot make this up.
Now, I would hesistate to guess at what the founding fathers intended from their system, and of course in many ways they created a very robust system, but in a system about accountability of different parts of government, why would they have intended someone be immune from prosecution while in office?
Never on PB.
☺️
A decision will be made by EU ambassadors on Friday .
And if Macron wins in the Council it is academic for a GE as he wants the 30th November, take it or leave it
It isn’t a hot-button issue round here outside Rugeley, which it will run past. But we do need it badly. We’ve just had major cuts to our local services due to capacity issues on the WCML south of Rugby.
Brex(sh)it is totally self-inflicted. As such, to try to force voters with winter blues - 30% reportedly suffer - to go to a polling station is cruel and unusual punishment.
Let Johnson simmer gently ...
The decision is not the Ambassadors, it is the leaders and it is hoped it will be done in exchange of letters between them and Tusk by friday, otherwise a full council meeting will be arranged
Macron is digging in with unnamed others but hopefully the details will be announced by Tusk, following his formal written response ( signed !!!! ) to the PM is received
This is way above Ambassadors pay grade
And while it might be quicker to get to Birmingham, the trains will stop at a separate station, so getting a conection to anywhere else will be a balls ache, so you might as well stick with the normal services.
Just say that
1. HS2 is scrapped, as the economic case made at the time it was commissioned no longer stacks up and
2. An East-West fast service in the north will be commissioned instead, assuming that an economic case can be made, linking Newcastle/Leeds/Sheffield/Manchester/Liverpool
Everybody happy.
Or the Equality and Human Rights Commission might turn up with a report saying Labour are ocean-going, copper-bottomed, Berger-deselecting, Yaqoob-endorsing antisemites, and the ensuing litigation could bankrupt the party.
That might turn up too. Roll the dice.
Purely from a media point , it’s easier to agree the 3 month request whilst not being at a summit .
Those summits have a lot of coverage . I really don’t think 27 EU leaders are in the mood to change their plans to turn up to a summit to just deal with an extension request .
If Hillary got in, she would just through name recognition easily clear debate and fundraising thresholds and be a top tier candidate on entry. And if Biden wasn't in the race, she'd pick up much of his support and probably bounce Klobuchar at least out of the race. None of this is to say she doesn't have her failings, but if you were looking for a credible not Warren candidate at short notice then she could fit the bill.
Just say that
1. HS2 is scrapped, as the economic case made at the time it was commissioned no longer stacks up and
2. An East-West fast service in the north will be commissioned instead, assuming that an economic case can be made, linking Newcastle/Leeds/Sheffield/Manchester/Liverpool
Everybody happy.
Whilst I know nothing about railways beyond long distance commuting for eight years is the problem actually capacity needed for local and freight services between London and the midlands and beyond?