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Comments
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Popular vote now Liberals 34.3%, Conservatives 33.5%, NDP 14.6%.AndyJS said:Conservatives only 50,000 votes behind in the popular vote now.
82% of votes still to be counted.
Seat total Liberals 148, Conservatives 117, BQ 35, NDP 25
https://enr.elections.ca/National.aspx?lang=e0 -
Only about 10 seats would have to switch from what the TV networks are currently saying for it to be a dead heat in terms of seats.1
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Sorry to spoil the fun from Canada. But barring something extraordinary the Second Reading vote for Brexit will finally take place at 7pm today!
[E X C I T E D]
[C L A P]
[C L A P]
I guess the expectation is that this passes but that the timetabling motion fails, due to grumpy Philip Hammond types? Or are there enough Labour rebels to see it over the line, in James Forsythe's words "to rip the plaster off quickly"?
With amendments for neither the customs union nor Second People's Confirmatory Vote looking likely to pass at the present time, should we be calibrating the base case to be Brexit on 30 November, the day before Sabine's delayed accession to Commission President?
And then a post Xmas general election in roughly March, once Boris has lost a few more votes in Parliament (including on the negotiating mandate for the free trade agreement)?0 -
MPs putting down amendments for a second referendum and a customs union is going to sink the entire bill from what I've heard.moonshine said:Sorry to spoil the fun from Canada. But barring something extraordinary the Second Reading vote for Brexit will finally take place at 7pm today!
[E X C I T E D]
[C L A P]
[C L A P]
I guess the expectation is that this passes but that the timetabling motion fails, due to grumpy Philip Hammond types? Or are there enough Labour rebels to see it over the line, in James Forsythe's words "to rip the plaster off quickly"?
With amendments for neither the customs union nor Second People's Confirmatory Vote looking likely to pass at the present time, should we be calibrating the base case to be Brexit on 30 November, the day before Sabine's delayed accession to Commission President?
And then a post Xmas general election in roughly March, once Boris has lost a few more votes in Parliament (including on the negotiating mandate for the free trade agreement)?1 -
Right definitely back to bed now, night all0
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Canada, latest popular vote figures:
Con 4,065,822
Lib 3,934,080
NDP 1,828,230
BQ 1,006,873
Grn 725,932
PPC 197,725
https://enr.elections.ca/National.aspx?lang=e0 -
The referendum was well short in the indicative votes, I don't see how it would get there at this point.AndyJS said:
MPs putting down amendments for a second referendum and a customs union is going to sink the entire bill from what I've heard.moonshine said:Sorry to spoil the fun from Canada. But barring something extraordinary the Second Reading vote for Brexit will finally take place at 7pm today!
[E X C I T E D]
[C L A P]
[C L A P]
I guess the expectation is that this passes but that the timetabling motion fails, due to grumpy Philip Hammond types? Or are there enough Labour rebels to see it over the line, in James Forsythe's words "to rip the plaster off quickly"?
With amendments for neither the customs union nor Second People's Confirmatory Vote looking likely to pass at the present time, should we be calibrating the base case to be Brexit on 30 November, the day before Sabine's delayed accession to Commission President?
And then a post Xmas general election in roughly March, once Boris has lost a few more votes in Parliament (including on the negotiating mandate for the free trade agreement)?
The CU was closer but it'll probably lose a bunch of Tories who want a deal done and see it as a poison pill. There was a thought that the DUP might help push it over the edge but apparently they're a NO NO NO.
So I don't get how either of those pass; They can do lots of little things on timing and procedure that'll kick the thing past the extension date, and there might be a VONC after that which stops the thing passing pending an election, and maybe stuff on workers rights etc, but that's less likely to lose Boris the ERG.0 -
It's also madness to attempt to scrutinise such a complicated document in a matter of hours.0
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Definitely. I remember the TMay plan expected this part to take several months. Utterly batshit to try to do it with 10 days until brexit day, oh and fuck everything let's just throw in a Queen's Speech as well so we can tell everyone how much we care about the NHS.AndyJS said:It's also madness to attempt to scrutinise such a complicated document in a matter of hours.
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It’s as though Brexiteer Tories would only be satisfied by maximum confusion and disruption. A return to “if it’s not hurting, it isn’t working” ?edmundintokyo said:
Definitely. I remember the TMay plan expected this part to take several months. Utterly batshit to try to do it with 10 days until brexit day, oh and fuck everything let's just throw in a Queen's Speech as well so we can tell everyone how much we care about the NHS.AndyJS said:It's also madness to attempt to scrutinise such a complicated document in a matter of hours.
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Good morning Canadian election fans. Still looks still too close to call, Liberals probably with most seats but well short of a majority.
Agree with those annoyed at journalists trying to 'predict' seat results before they're declared. One advantage of the UK system is that nothing is revealed until the official declaration, there's no dripping out of vote numbers.0 -
I wonder whether it's getting to the stage where politicians on all sides decide to put everything off until the New Year, so at least they can get some rest over the Christmas period and have time to read all the documents properly.edmundintokyo said:
Definitely. I remember the TMay plan expected this part to take several months. Utterly batshit to try to do it with 10 days until brexit day, oh and fuck everything let's just throw in a Queen's Speech as well so we can tell everyone how much we care about the NHS.AndyJS said:It's also madness to attempt to scrutinise such a complicated document in a matter of hours.
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Share price off 10% in the last 48 hours, it's going to cost them well into the billions to sort this out.Nigelb said:
Analysts on the radio this morning suggesting that at some point it's worth buying in though - the company isn't going to be allowed to go bust, and the global aviation market is still rapidly expanding.0 -
Trudeau is now a quarter of million votes behind in the popular vote. This is a pretty lukewarm result for him, although he's probably going stay in power with a minority government.
https://enr.elections.ca/National.aspx?lang=e0 -
Totnes is staying Conservative.rcs1000 said:
I don't think the LibDems will gain many Conservative seats in the South West. They'll probably get St Ives, and maybe they'll hold Totnes, but it's slim pickings after that.TheValiant said:
I certainly agree SNP and LD.SunnyJim said:Trying to work out which groups would prefer a GE before an exit...
I would say it would be to the LD's benefit.
Certainly the SNP's.
The Tories will be happy of course.
Labour would most certainly not be happy.
The line of least resistance to me looks like a GE rather than the WA passing.
I certainly agree Labour DON'T want an election.
I'm not sure about the Conservatives. It could easily be seat gains for them, but they are likely to lose quite a few in Scotland (which won't help their Unionist protestations) and to the LD in the South West. Probably net seat gains, but it involves throwing about thirty MPs under a bus (a phrase used a lot lately).
IF (and its a big IF) the BXP can get traction, it could all go so horribly wrong for them.
Doubt the DUP want an election. Not sure about Sinn Fein. Probably don't care.
Greens and Plaid probably don't care for one either.
Their chances are much better in suburban Remainia, places like Richmond Park, and in the market towns of South East England where they used to do very well.0 -
Sorry, Greta.Sandpit said:
the global aviation market is still rapidly expanding.1 -
The Liberal vote looks to be incredibly efficient at delivering seats.Sandpit said:Good morning Canadian election fans. Still looks still too close to call, Liberals probably with most seats but well short of a majority.
Agree with those annoyed at journalists trying to 'predict' seat results before they're declared. One advantage of the UK system is that nothing is revealed until the official declaration, there's no dripping out of vote numbers.0 -
It boils down to the fact they did exceptionally well at winning the marginals in Toronto and Montreal.MarqueeMark said:
The Liberal vote looks to be incredibly efficient at delivering seats.Sandpit said:Good morning Canadian election fans. Still looks still too close to call, Liberals probably with most seats but well short of a majority.
Agree with those annoyed at journalists trying to 'predict' seat results before they're declared. One advantage of the UK system is that nothing is revealed until the official declaration, there's no dripping out of vote numbers.0 -
Is Sarah Wollaston not standing for them there? I'd reckon she's a 25-30% chance of holding if she does.MarqueeMark said:
Totnes is staying Conservative.rcs1000 said:
I don't think the LibDems will gain many Conservative seats in the South West. They'll probably get St Ives, and maybe they'll hold Totnes, but it's slim pickings after that.TheValiant said:
I certainly agree SNP and LD.SunnyJim said:Trying to work out which groups would prefer a GE before an exit...
I would say it would be to the LD's benefit.
Certainly the SNP's.
The Tories will be happy of course.
Labour would most certainly not be happy.
The line of least resistance to me looks like a GE rather than the WA passing.
I certainly agree Labour DON'T want an election.
I'm not sure about the Conservatives. It could easily be seat gains for them, but they are likely to lose quite a few in Scotland (which won't help their Unionist protestations) and to the LD in the South West. Probably net seat gains, but it involves throwing about thirty MPs under a bus (a phrase used a lot lately).
IF (and its a big IF) the BXP can get traction, it could all go so horribly wrong for them.
Doubt the DUP want an election. Not sure about Sinn Fein. Probably don't care.
Greens and Plaid probably don't care for one either.
Their chances are much better in suburban Remainia, places like Richmond Park, and in the market towns of South East England where they used to do very well.0 -
Even if it did go bust, the company would still exist, just with new owners.Sandpit said:
Share price off 10% in the last 48 hours, it's going to cost them well into the billions to sort this out.Nigelb said:
Analysts on the radio this morning suggesting that at some point it's worth buying in though - the company isn't going to be allowed to go bust, and the global aviation market is still rapidly expanding.0 -
It is quite strange that after decades of wanting to leave the European Union, the leavers are prepared to rush the leaving process through as quickly as possible. Proper scruitiny of the Withdrawal Agreement must surely be in the best interests of the leave side to get a better Brexit.AndyJS said:
I wonder whether it's getting to the stage where politicians on all sides decide to put everything off until the New Year, so at least they can get some rest over the Christmas period and have time to read all the documents properly.edmundintokyo said:
Definitely. I remember the TMay plan expected this part to take several months. Utterly batshit to try to do it with 10 days until brexit day, oh and fuck everything let's just throw in a Queen's Speech as well so we can tell everyone how much we care about the NHS.AndyJS said:It's also madness to attempt to scrutinise such a complicated document in a matter of hours.
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Yep. Pretty much a dead heat in votes, but 20-25% more seats for the Libs.MarqueeMark said:
The Liberal vote looks to be incredibly efficient at delivering seats.Sandpit said:Good morning Canadian election fans. Still looks still too close to call, Liberals probably with most seats but well short of a majority.
Agree with those annoyed at journalists trying to 'predict' seat results before they're declared. One advantage of the UK system is that nothing is revealed until the official declaration, there's no dripping out of vote numbers.
I guess a similar things would happen to Labour in the UK - even at a 20% GB share there's a lot of seats in cities that would stay bright red.0 -
I don’t think the second referendum vote will go through. The customs union is trickier for the government but about 50/50 at this stage, id say.AndyJS said:
MPs putting down amendments for a second referendum and a customs union is going to sink the entire bill from what I've heard.moonshine said:Sorry to spoil the fun from Canada. But barring something extraordinary the Second Reading vote for Brexit will finally take place at 7pm today!
[E X C I T E D]
[C L A P]
[C L A P]
I guess the expectation is that this passes but that the timetabling motion fails, due to grumpy Philip Hammond types? Or are there enough Labour rebels to see it over the line, in James Forsythe's words "to rip the plaster off quickly"?
With amendments for neither the customs union nor Second People's Confirmatory Vote looking likely to pass at the present time, should we be calibrating the base case to be Brexit on 30 November, the day before Sabine's delayed accession to Commission President?
And then a post Xmas general election in roughly March, once Boris has lost a few more votes in Parliament (including on the negotiating mandate for the free trade agreement)?
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Oh she's standing for the LibDems. And she'll do well in Totnes town itself. But that is not remotely representative of the constituency, which also contains the town of Brixham - now the most important fishing port in England and Wales. Good luck finding Wollaston supporters there. And as I have been finding recently, there is no movement from previous Tory voters to the LibDems in the larger villages that dot the South Hams.rcs1000 said:
Is Sarah Wollaston not standing for them there? I'd reckon she's a 25-30% chance of holding if she does.MarqueeMark said:
Totnes is staying Conservative.rcs1000 said:
I don't think the LibDems will gain many Conservative seats in the South West. They'll probably get St Ives, and maybe they'll hold Totnes, but it's slim pickings after that.TheValiant said:
I certainly agree SNP and LD.SunnyJim said:Trying to work out which groups would prefer a GE before an exit...
I would say it would be to the LD's benefit.
Certainly the SNP's.
The Tories will be happy of course.
Labour would most certainly not be happy.
The line of least resistance to me looks like a GE rather than the WA passing.
I certainly agree Labour DON'T want an election.
I'm not sure about the Conservatives. It could easily be seat gains for them, but they are likely to lose quite a few in Scotland (which won't help their Unionist protestations) and to the LD in the South West. Probably net seat gains, but it involves throwing about thirty MPs under a bus (a phrase used a lot lately).
IF (and its a big IF) the BXP can get traction, it could all go so horribly wrong for them.
Doubt the DUP want an election. Not sure about Sinn Fein. Probably don't care.
Greens and Plaid probably don't care for one either.
Their chances are much better in suburban Remainia, places like Richmond Park, and in the market towns of South East England where they used to do very well.
Tory by at least 5,000 I'd say.0 -
Interesting that both the United States and Canada now have leaders that lost the popular vote.0
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A 'better Brexit' for many of them is one in which they can do what they want without a light being shone on their activities.eristdoof said:
It is quite strange that after decades of wanting to leave the European Union, the leavers are prepared to rush the leaving process through as quickly as possible. Proper scruitiny of the Withdrawal Agreement must surely be in the best interests of the leave side to get a better Brexit.AndyJS said:
I wonder whether it's getting to the stage where politicians on all sides decide to put everything off until the New Year, so at least they can get some rest over the Christmas period and have time to read all the documents properly.edmundintokyo said:
Definitely. I remember the TMay plan expected this part to take several months. Utterly batshit to try to do it with 10 days until brexit day, oh and fuck everything let's just throw in a Queen's Speech as well so we can tell everyone how much we care about the NHS.AndyJS said:It's also madness to attempt to scrutinise such a complicated document in a matter of hours.
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Wouldn't want to be holding the worthless paper if that's what happens though!rcs1000 said:
Even if it did go bust, the company would still exist, just with new owners.Sandpit said:
Share price off 10% in the last 48 hours, it's going to cost them well into the billions to sort this out.Nigelb said:
Analysts on the radio this morning suggesting that at some point it's worth buying in though - the company isn't going to be allowed to go bust, and the global aviation market is still rapidly expanding.
I think the argument was more that the White House would make sure a few billion in 'defence contracts' found their way to Boeing if there was any chance of them going under. Trump wouldn't want such a high-profile failure in election year, and Boeing is way more strategic to national security than the auto makers.0 -
The consensus view seems to be that there probably is a majority for Johnson's deal but not by 31st October.0
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Even if the DUP only abstain rather than vote against customs union, where does it get the numbers from?numbertwelve said:
I don’t think the second referendum vote will go through. The customs union is trickier for the government but about 50/50 at this stage, id say.AndyJS said:
MPs putting down amendments for a second referendum and a customs union is going to sink the entire bill from what I've heard.moonshine said:Sorry to spoil the fun from Canada. But barring something extraordinary the Second Reading vote for Brexit will finally take place at 7pm today!
[E X C I T E D]
[C L A P]
[C L A P]
I guess the expectation is that this passes but that the timetabling motion fails, due to grumpy Philip Hammond types? Or are there enough Labour rebels to see it over the line, in James Forsythe's words "to rip the plaster off quickly"?
With amendments for neither the customs union nor Second People's Confirmatory Vote looking likely to pass at the present time, should we be calibrating the base case to be Brexit on 30 November, the day before Sabine's delayed accession to Commission President?
And then a post Xmas general election in roughly March, once Boris has lost a few more votes in Parliament (including on the negotiating mandate for the free trade agreement)?
The only wrecking amendment I can potentially see working at the moment is a VONC and even that looks more likely to fail than not.
That said it’s a very fragile and unlikely coalition that the govt has built. That’s why they’re want things dealt this week and why the Remain At All Cost gang are desperate to drag out the process.
So the key question is how many votes will the govt lose between Second Reading and the timetabling motion.0 -
What was the rubbish the Chancellor was going on about how businesses can move on and start making plans for new investment with certainty if the bill goes through?
They’ll just have to begin their new contingency planning for no deal at the end of next year.0 -
I see The Times has Labour to abstain on second reading. First they block a vote from taking place. Then when a vote finally happens, they decline to express an opinion. What a shower.moonshine said:
Even if the DUP only abstain rather than vote against customs union, where does it get the numbers from?numbertwelve said:
I don’t think the second referendum vote will go through. The customs union is trickier for the government but about 50/50 at this stage, id say.AndyJS said:
MPs putting down amendments for a second referendum and a customs union is going to sink the entire bill from what I've heard.moonshine said:Sorry to spoil the fun from Canada. But barring something extraordinary the Second Reading vote for Brexit will finally take place at 7pm today!
[E X C I T E D]
[C L A P]
[C L A P]
I guess the expectation is that this passes but that the timetabling motion fails, due to grumpy Philip Hammond types? Or are there enough Labour rebels to see it over the line, in James Forsythe's words "to rip the plaster off quickly"?
With amendments for neither the customs union nor Second People's Confirmatory Vote looking likely to pass at the present time, should we be calibrating the base case to be Brexit on 30 November, the day before Sabine's delayed accession to Commission President?
And then a post Xmas general election in roughly March, once Boris has lost a few more votes in Parliament (including on the negotiating mandate for the free trade agreement)?
The only wrecking amendment I can potentially see working at the moment is a VONC and even that looks more likely to fail than not.
That said it’s a very fragile and unlikely coalition that the govt has built. That’s why they’re want things dealt this week and why the Remain At All Cost gang are desperate to drag out the process.
So the key question is how many votes will the govt lose between Second Reading and the timetabling motion.1 -
Good morning, everyone.
One day we'll return to calm politics, but not for a while.
Finished my partial re-watch (seasons 2-4) of Babylon 5 yesterday. Really rather good.0 -
I think the timetabling motion comes directly after the second reading vote.moonshine said:
Even if the DUP only abstain rather than vote against customs union, where does it get the numbers from?numbertwelve said:
I don’t think the second referendum vote will go through. The customs union is trickier for the government but about 50/50 at this stage, id say.AndyJS said:
MPs putting down amendments for a second referendum and a customs union is going to sink the entire bill from what I've heard.moonshine said:Sorry to spoil the fun from Canada. But barring something extraordinary the Second Reading vote for Brexit will finally take place at 7pm today!
[E X C I T E D]
[C L A P]
[C L A P]
I guess the expectation is that this passes but that the timetabling motion fails, due to grumpy Philip Hammond types? Or are there enough Labour rebels to see it over the line, in James Forsythe's words "to rip the plaster off quickly"?
With amendments for neither the customs union nor Second People's Confirmatory Vote looking likely to pass at the present time, should we be calibrating the base case to be Brexit on 30 November, the day before Sabine's delayed accession to Commission President?
And then a post Xmas general election in roughly March, once Boris has lost a few more votes in Parliament (including on the negotiating mandate for the free trade agreement)?
The only wrecking amendment I can potentially see working at the moment is a VONC and even that looks more likely to fail than not.
That said it’s a very fragile and unlikely coalition that the govt has built. That’s why they’re want things dealt this week and why the Remain At All Cost gang are desperate to drag out the process.
So the key question is how many votes will the govt lose between Second Reading and the timetabling motion.
Key will be by how many votes it passes at second reading. If it’s very slim, then a couple of switchers could make the difference on timetabling. If it’s a little more sturdy, they’ll probably have a bit more luck.
Never bet against the Commons wanting more time to make a decision though. If there’s a can, they’ll kick it. The question is whether this time there is enough pressure that they feel it’s crunch time. Saturday would say no, but we’re now a few days nearer and on the legislative stage, so we’ll see.1 -
"Boris Johnson could scrap his Brexit deal as John Bercow blocks vote and Remainers plot to wreck it"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/21/boris-johnson-could-scrap-brexit-deal-john-bercow-blocks-vote/0 -
Woe betide those MPs that the public perceive are delaying Brexit just to get it past the 31st October so they can go nur-nur na nur-nur to the Prime Minister.....AndyJS said:The consensus view seems to be that there probably is a majority for Johnson's deal but not by 31st October.
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MarqueeMark said:
Woe betide those MPs that the public perceive are delaying Brexit just to get it past the 31st October so they can go nur-nur na nur-nur to the Prime Minister.....AndyJS said:The consensus view seems to be that there probably is a majority for Johnson's deal but not by 31st October.
If I thought my solicitor was just giving a quick flick-though to the deeds of my new house, rather than reading them properly, I'd be somewhat miffed. Especially if something went wrong shortly after I'd signed.MarqueeMark said:
Woe betide those MPs that the public perceive are delaying Brexit just to get it past the 31st October so they can go nur-nur na nur-nur to the Prime Minister.....AndyJS said:The consensus view seems to be that there probably is a majority for Johnson's deal but not by 31st October.
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Surely not? That would be bonkers, even from them.moonshine said:
I see The Times has Labour to abstain on second reading. First they block a vote from taking place. Then when a vote finally happens, they decline to express an opinion. What a shower.moonshine said:
Even if the DUP only abstain rather than vote against customs union, where does it get the numbers from?numbertwelve said:
I don’t think the second referendum vote will go through. The customs union is trickier for the government but about 50/50 at this stage, id say.AndyJS said:
MPs putting down amendments for a second referendum and a customs union is going to sink the entire bill from what I've heard.moonshine said:Sorry to spoil the fun from Canada. But barring something extraordinary the Second Reading vote for Brexit will finally take place at 7pm today!
[E X C I T E D]
[C L A P]
[C L A P]
I guess the expectation is that this passes but that the timetabling motion fails, due to grumpy Philip Hammond types? Or are there enough Labour rebels to see it over the line, in James Forsythe's words "to rip the plaster off quickly"?
With amendments for neither the customs union nor Second People's Confirmatory Vote looking likely to pass at the present time, should we be calibrating the base case to be Brexit on 30 November, the day before Sabine's delayed accession to Commission President?
And then a post Xmas general election in roughly March, once Boris has lost a few more votes in Parliament (including on the negotiating mandate for the free trade agreement)?
The only wrecking amendment I can potentially see working at the moment is a VONC and even that looks more likely to fail than not.
That said it’s a very fragile and unlikely coalition that the govt has built. That’s why they’re want things dealt this week and why the Remain At All Cost gang are desperate to drag out the process.
So the key question is how many votes will the govt lose between Second Reading and the timetabling motion.
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I’m not sure opposition MPs realise how nakedly transparent that play is to the general public.MarqueeMark said:
Woe betide those MPs that the public perceive are delaying Brexit just to get it past the 31st October so they can go nur-nur na nur-nur to the Prime Minister.....AndyJS said:The consensus view seems to be that there probably is a majority for Johnson's deal but not by 31st October.
They won’t profit by it. It just looks petulant at the country’s expense.1 -
The second vote doesn't matter - it's a formality.numbertwelve said:
Surely not? That would be bonkers, even from them.moonshine said:
I see The Times has Labour to abstain on second reading. First they block a vote from taking place. Then when a vote finally happens, they decline to express an opinion. What a shower.moonshine said:
Even if the DUP only abstain rather than vote against customs union, where does it get the numbers from?numbertwelve said:
I don’t think the second referendum vote will go through. The customs union is trickier for the government but about 50/50 at this stage, id say.AndyJS said:
MPs putting down amendments for a second referendum and a customs union is going to sink the entire bill from what I've heard.moonshine said:Sorry to spoil the fun from Canada. But barring something extraordinary the Second Reading vote for Brexit will finally take place at 7pm today!
[E X C I T E D]
[C L A P]
[C L A P]
I guess the expectation is that this passes but that the timetabling motion fails, due to grumpy Philip Hammond types? Or are there enough Labour rebels to see it over the line, in James Forsythe's words "to rip the plaster off quickly"?
With amendments for neither the customs union nor Second People's Confirmatory Vote looking likely to pass at the present time, should we be calibrating the base case to be Brexit on 30 November, the day before Sabine's delayed accession to Commission President?
And then a post Xmas general election in roughly March, once Boris has lost a few more votes in Parliament (including on the negotiating mandate for the free trade agreement)?
The only wrecking amendment I can potentially see working at the moment is a VONC and even that looks more likely to fail than not.
That said it’s a very fragile and unlikely coalition that the govt has built. That’s why they’re want things dealt this week and why the Remain At All Cost gang are desperate to drag out the process.
So the key question is how many votes will the govt lose between Second Reading and the timetabling motion.
The timetable afterwards does matter as does any amendments they add in committee.0 -
Is that in Canada?MarqueeMark said:
Totnes is staying Conservative.rcs1000 said:
I don't think the LibDems will gain many Conservative seats in the South West. They'll probably get St Ives, and maybe they'll hold Totnes, but it's slim pickings after that.TheValiant said:
I certainly agree SNP and LD.SunnyJim said:Trying to work out which groups would prefer a GE before an exit...
I would say it would be to the LD's benefit.
Certainly the SNP's.
The Tories will be happy of course.
Labour would most certainly not be happy.
The line of least resistance to me looks like a GE rather than the WA passing.
I certainly agree Labour DON'T want an election.
I'm not sure about the Conservatives. It could easily be seat gains for them, but they are likely to lose quite a few in Scotland (which won't help their Unionist protestations) and to the LD in the South West. Probably net seat gains, but it involves throwing about thirty MPs under a bus (a phrase used a lot lately).
IF (and its a big IF) the BXP can get traction, it could all go so horribly wrong for them.
Doubt the DUP want an election. Not sure about Sinn Fein. Probably don't care.
Greens and Plaid probably don't care for one either.
Their chances are much better in suburban Remainia, places like Richmond Park, and in the market towns of South East England where they used to do very well.1 -
Babylon 5 hasn’t been equalled since, except via Mass Effect. Watched the Expanse the other day and was just cursing it the whole way through for not being B5. Thats no way to live.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
One day we'll return to calm politics, but not for a while.
Finished my partial re-watch (seasons 2-4) of Babylon 5 yesterday. Really rather good.0 -
Scheer has energised his base but didn’t really convinced marginal swing voters.AndyJS said:Interesting that both the United States and Canada now have leaders that lost the popular vote.
I’m not an expert on Canadian politics but whilst he got the “cost of living” right, I’m not sure the more Republican-style noises on climate change and abortion were the right play.
He should have instead offered a progressive Conservative solution on the environment, and a long term target, and emphasised the importance of family whilst being non-committal on issues like abortion.0 -
If you think we've had problems after a 52:48 EU exit referendum I'd hate to see what would happen after a 52:48 border poll in favour of reunification.Richard_Tyndall said:
Definitely time for a Border Poll.Beibheirli_C said:
Like I said on here last night, the DUP are simple beasts. A United Ireland is the one thing they will NOT tolerate under any circumstance.nico67 said:
Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .RobD said:
Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.nico67 said:I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .
A martyr election might suit him .
One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .
The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .
The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.
The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.
I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !
That is why the EU and the GFA are so powerful. They allow both sides to live with the fiction that they have both won and the other side has lost/given up.0 -
Mr. Northstar, Mass Effect, particularly the second game, is quite fantastic.
Such a shame that Bioware's fallen off a cliff. Just glad that Obsidian, Larian, and CD Projekt Red appear to be making great games to help fill the void.0 -
Sounds familiar!Casino_Royale said:
Scheer has energised his base but didn’t really convinced marginal swing votersAndyJS said:Interesting that both the United States and Canada now have leaders that lost the popular vote.
0 -
The Tories need to win in Ontario to form a Government.MarqueeMark said:
The Liberal vote looks to be incredibly efficient at delivering seats.Sandpit said:Good morning Canadian election fans. Still looks still too close to call, Liberals probably with most seats but well short of a majority.
Agree with those annoyed at journalists trying to 'predict' seat results before they're declared. One advantage of the UK system is that nothing is revealed until the official declaration, there's no dripping out of vote numbers.
They didn’t win in Ontario. Both their national image and that of Doug Ford’s provincial government hurt them.0 -
Quite. I never got the hate for ME2 I thought it was unbelievably good. ME3 was great until the last third, which was frankly more aggravating than Brexit.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Northstar, Mass Effect, particularly the second game, is quite fantastic.
Such a shame that Bioware's fallen off a cliff. Just glad that Obsidian, Larian, and CD Projekt Red appear to be making great games to help fill the void.1 -
Yet if those deeds were largely pro forma and he had been sat on them for an age, you'd equally be somewhat miffed if he was telling you that moving into your new couldn't happen for months and months......OldKingCole said:MarqueeMark said:
Woe betide those MPs that the public perceive are delaying Brexit just to get it past the 31st October so they can go nur-nur na nur-nur to the Prime Minister.....AndyJS said:The consensus view seems to be that there probably is a majority for Johnson's deal but not by 31st October.
If I thought my solicitor was just giving a quick flick-though to the deeds of my new house, rather than reading them properly, I'd be somewhat miffed. Especially if something went wrong shortly after I'd signed.MarqueeMark said:
Woe betide those MPs that the public perceive are delaying Brexit just to get it past the 31st October so they can go nur-nur na nur-nur to the Prime Minister.....AndyJS said:The consensus view seems to be that there probably is a majority for Johnson's deal but not by 31st October.
0 -
On topic, I agree with @david_herdson. Boris Johnson has been a duplicitous, treacherous, disloyal bastard for far more than the last four months.0
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You could say the same thing about a Meaningful Vote but Grieve and Labour still schemed to make that formally a part of the legislative process for this bill.eek said:
The second vote doesn't matter - it's a formality.numbertwelve said:
Surely not? That would be bonkers, even from them.moonshine said:
I see The Times has Labour to abstain on second reading. First they block a vote from taking place. Then when a vote finally happens, they decline to express an opinion. What a shower.moonshine said:
Even if the DUP only abstain rather than vote against customs union, where does it get the numbers from?numbertwelve said:
I don’t think the second referendum vote will go through. The customs union is trickier for the government but about 50/50 at this stage, id say.AndyJS said:
MPs putting down amendments for a second referendum and a customs union is going to sink the entire bill from what I've heard.moonshine said:Sorry to spoil the fun from Canada. But barring something extraordinary the Second Reading vote for Brexit will finally take place at 7pm today!
[E X C I T E D]
[C L A P]
[C L A P]
I guess the expectation is that this passes but that the timetabling motion fails, due to grumpy Philip Hammond types? Or are there enough Labour rebels to see it over the line, in James Forsythe's words "to rip the plaster off quickly"?
With amendments for neither the customs union nor Second People's Confirmatory Vote looking likely to pass at the present time, should we be calibrating the base case to be Brexit on 30 November, the day before Sabine's delayed accession to Commission President?
And then a post Xmas general election in roughly March, once Boris has lost a few more votes in Parliament (including on the negotiating mandate for the free trade agreement)?
The only wrecking amendment I can potentially see working at the moment is a VONC and even that looks more likely to fail than not.
That said it’s a very fragile and unlikely coalition that the govt has built. That’s why they’re want things dealt this week and why the Remain At All Cost gang are desperate to drag out the process.
So the key question is how many votes will the govt lose between Second Reading and the timetabling motion.
The timetable afterwards does matter as does any amendments they add in committee.
Labour's cynical ploys are nakedly transparent to anyone that is paying an interest, which judging by the weekend viewing figures for Parliament's session seems to be an extraordinarily large number of people.0 -
Depends if the old house was beautiful and the new house is a crack den.MarqueeMark said:
Yet if those deeds were largely pro forma and he had been sat on them for an age, you'd equally be somewhat miffed if he was telling you that moving into your new couldn't happen for months and months......OldKingCole said:MarqueeMark said:
Woe betide those MPs that the public perceive are delaying Brexit just to get it past the 31st October so they can go nur-nur na nur-nur to the Prime Minister.....AndyJS said:The consensus view seems to be that there probably is a majority for Johnson's deal but not by 31st October.
If I thought my solicitor was just giving a quick flick-though to the deeds of my new house, rather than reading them properly, I'd be somewhat miffed. Especially if something went wrong shortly after I'd signed.MarqueeMark said:
Woe betide those MPs that the public perceive are delaying Brexit just to get it past the 31st October so they can go nur-nur na nur-nur to the Prime Minister.....AndyJS said:The consensus view seems to be that there probably is a majority for Johnson's deal but not by 31st October.
0 -
Mr. Northstar, being a Playstation player I was late to the Mass Effect party. I'm well aware of the dislike for the end of the third instalment, and I do prefer the second game, but had never heard of dislike for the second. What did people think was wrong with it?0
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“Sat on them for an age...” - and just when was the Withdrawal Bill published ?MarqueeMark said:
Yet if those deeds were largely pro forma and he had been sat on them for an age, you'd equally be somewhat miffed if he was telling you that moving into your new couldn't happen for months and months......OldKingCole said:MarqueeMark said:
Woe betide those MPs that the public perceive are delaying Brexit just to get it past the 31st October so they can go nur-nur na nur-nur to the Prime Minister.....AndyJS said:The consensus view seems to be that there probably is a majority for Johnson's deal but not by 31st October.
If I thought my solicitor was just giving a quick flick-though to the deeds of my new house, rather than reading them properly, I'd be somewhat miffed. Especially if something went wrong shortly after I'd signed.MarqueeMark said:
Woe betide those MPs that the public perceive are delaying Brexit just to get it past the 31st October so they can go nur-nur na nur-nur to the Prime Minister.....AndyJS said:The consensus view seems to be that there probably is a majority for Johnson's deal but not by 31st October.
It is only this morning that commentators are beginning to work out the detailed implications for NI, for example.
This is merely an extreme version of May’s tactics - keep everything to yourself, without consultation, and then critique your opponents for not rubber stamping whatever you might reveal shortly ahead of a self-imposed deadline.0 -
And yet Leave parties still can’t claim the support of a majority of people. Funny that.moonshine said:
You could say the same thing about a Meaningful Vote but Grieve and Labour still schemed to make that formally a part of the legislative process for this bill.eek said:
The second vote doesn't matter - it's a formality.numbertwelve said:
Surely not? That would be bonkers, even from them.moonshine said:
I see The Times has Labour to abstain on second reading. First they block a vote from taking place. Then when a vote finally happens, they decline to express an opinion. What a shower.moonshine said:
Even get the numbers from?numbertwelve said:
I don’t think the second referendum vote will go through. The customs union is trickier for the government but about 50/50 at this stage, id say.AndyJS said:
MPs putting down amendments for a second referendum and a customs union is going to sink the entire bill from what I've heard.moonshine said:Sorry to spoil the fun from Canada. But barring something extraordinary the Second Reading vote for Brexit will finally take place at 7pm today!
[E X C I T E D]
[C L A P]
[C L A P]
I guess the expectation is that this passes but that the timetabling motion fails, due to grumpy Philip Hammond types? Or are there enough Labour rebels to see it over the line, in James Forsythe's words "to rip the plaster off quickly"?
With amendments for neither the customs union nor Second People's Confirmatory Vote looking likely to pass at the present time, should we be calibrating the base case to be Brexit on 30 November, the day before Sabine's delayed accession to Commission President?
And then a post Xmas general election in roughly March, once Boris has lost a few more votes in Parliament (including on the negotiating mandate for the free trade agreement)?
The only wrecking amendment I can potentially see working at the moment is a VONC and even that looks more likely to fail than not.
That said it’s a very fragile and unlikely coalition that the govt has built. That’s why they’re want things dealt this week and why the Remain At All Cost gang are desperate to drag out the process.
So the key question is how many votes will the govt lose between Second Reading and the timetabling motion.
The timetable afterwards does matter as does any amendments they add in committee.
Labour's cynical ploys are nakedly transparent to anyone that is paying an interest, which judging by the weekend viewing figures for Parliament's session seems to be an extraordinarily large number of people.0 -
Who says they are largely pro-forma? My solicitor?MarqueeMark said:
Yet if those deeds were largely pro forma and he had been sat on them for an age, you'd equally be somewhat miffed if he was telling you that moving into your new couldn't happen for months and months......OldKingCole said:MarqueeMark said:
Woe betide those MPs that the public perceive are delaying Brexit just to get it past the 31st October so they can go nur-nur na nur-nur to the Prime Minister.....AndyJS said:The consensus view seems to be that there probably is a majority for Johnson's deal but not by 31st October.
If I thought my solicitor was just giving a quick flick-though to the deeds of my new house, rather than reading them properly, I'd be somewhat miffed. Especially if something went wrong shortly after I'd signed.MarqueeMark said:
Woe betide those MPs that the public perceive are delaying Brexit just to get it past the 31st October so they can go nur-nur na nur-nur to the Prime Minister.....AndyJS said:The consensus view seems to be that there probably is a majority for Johnson's deal but not by 31st October.
0 -
So you’ve read and analysed the entire bill and think it should be passed with minimal scrutiny ?Casino_Royale said:
I’m not sure opposition MPs realise how nakedly transparent that play is to the general public.MarqueeMark said:
Woe betide those MPs that the public perceive are delaying Brexit just to get it past the 31st October so they can go nur-nur na nur-nur to the Prime Minister.....AndyJS said:The consensus view seems to be that there probably is a majority for Johnson's deal but not by 31st October.
They won’t profit by it. It just looks petulant at the country’s expense.
One of the blank cheque Boris brigade.0 -
"This is a really fantastic deal but I want you to pass it in three days without reading it or assessing its economic impact" said no trustworthy person ever.Nigelb said:
So you’ve read and analysed the entire bill and think it should be passed with minimal scrutiny ?Casino_Royale said:
I’m not sure opposition MPs realise how nakedly transparent that play is to the general public.MarqueeMark said:
Woe betide those MPs that the public perceive are delaying Brexit just to get it past the 31st October so they can go nur-nur na nur-nur to the Prime Minister.....AndyJS said:The consensus view seems to be that there probably is a majority for Johnson's deal but not by 31st October.
They won’t profit by it. It just looks petulant at the country’s expense.
One of the blank cheque Boris brigade.0 -
I speed read the main Bill last night in about 20 minutes. Easily done. It’s 40 pages of clauses with about 70 of schedules and annexes.Nigelb said:
So you’ve read and analysed the entire bill and think it should be passed with minimal scrutiny ?Casino_Royale said:
I’m not sure opposition MPs realise how nakedly transparent that play is to the general public.MarqueeMark said:
Woe betide those MPs that the public perceive are delaying Brexit just to get it past the 31st October so they can go nur-nur na nur-nur to the Prime Minister.....AndyJS said:The consensus view seems to be that there probably is a majority for Johnson's deal but not by 31st October.
They won’t profit by it. It just looks petulant at the country’s expense.
One of the blank cheque Boris brigade.
The rest is hokum. The Deal has been on the table for almost a year. MPs have debated the WA exhaustively.
The delaying tactics are very obvious, and rather desperate.0 -
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Since anyone who says the first five words is patently lying...OnlyLivingBoy said:
"This is a really fantastic deal but I want you to pass it in three days without reading it or assessing its economic impact" said no trustworthy person ever.Nigelb said:
So you’ve read and analysed the entire bill and think it should be passed with minimal scrutiny ?Casino_Royale said:
I’m not sure opposition MPs realise how nakedly transparent that play is to the general public.MarqueeMark said:
Woe betide those MPs that the public perceive are delaying Brexit just to get it past the 31st October so they can go nur-nur na nur-nur to the Prime Minister.....AndyJS said:The consensus view seems to be that there probably is a majority for Johnson's deal but not by 31st October.
They won’t profit by it. It just looks petulant at the country’s expense.
One of the blank cheque Boris brigade.
0 -
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Purists who loved the first game thought it was too simplistic, and hated the fact that the overheating mechanic was ditched in favour of heat sink clips. I also came to the series late so played 2 first with no preconceptions and thought 1 was good but the game mechanics were a bit rickety.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Northstar, being a Playstation player I was late to the Mass Effect party. I'm well aware of the dislike for the end of the third instalment, and I do prefer the second game, but had never heard of dislike for the second. What did people think was wrong with it?
It’s much the same argument against Dragon Age Origins and DA2, except there it’s true!0 -
It has echoes of GE2005 here, albeit Blair did win a small majority.Gallowgate said:
Sounds familiar!Casino_Royale said:
Scheer has energised his base but didn’t really convinced marginal swing votersAndyJS said:Interesting that both the United States and Canada now have leaders that lost the popular vote.
0 -
Totnes is very slightly more Leave than the median seat (53.9% vs 53.6%). The median Leave seats are:rcs1000 said:
Is Sarah Wollaston not standing for them there? I'd reckon she's a 25-30% chance of holding if she does.MarqueeMark said:
Totnes is staying Conservative.rcs1000 said:
I don't think the LibDems will gain many Conservative seats in the South West. They'll probably get St Ives, and maybe they'll hold Totnes, but it's slim pickings after that.TheValiant said:
I certainly agree SNP and LD.SunnyJim said:Trying to work out which groups would prefer a GE before an exit...
I would say it would be to the LD's benefit.
Certainly the SNP's.
The Tories will be happy of course.
Labour would most certainly not be happy.
The line of least resistance to me looks like a GE rather than the WA passing.
I certainly agree Labour DON'T want an election.
I'm not sure about the Conservatives. It could easily be seat gains for them, but they are likely to lose quite a few in Scotland (which won't help their Unionist protestations) and to the LD in the South West. Probably net seat gains, but it involves throwing about thirty MPs under a bus (a phrase used a lot lately).
IF (and its a big IF) the BXP can get traction, it could all go so horribly wrong for them.
Doubt the DUP want an election. Not sure about Sinn Fein. Probably don't care.
Greens and Plaid probably don't care for one either.
Their chances are much better in suburban Remainia, places like Richmond Park, and in the market towns of South East England where they used to do very well.
Tewkesbury - Laurence Robertson, Conservative, majority 22,574.
Wells - James Heappey, Conservative, majority 7,582.
Basingstoke - Maria Miller, Conservative, majority 9,466.
Banff and Buchan - David Duguid, Conservative, majority 3,693.0 -
Latest polls in Spanish GE show parties of left and right on 155 seats each. Balance of power with independistas! If this stays the same so does the chaos.0
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Yes, I think I agree with most of that.Scott_P said:0 -
Those familiar with the documents.....OldKingCole said:
Who says they are largely pro-forma? My solicitor?MarqueeMark said:
Yet if those deeds were largely pro forma and he had been sat on them for an age, you'd equally be somewhat miffed if he was telling you that moving into your new couldn't happen for months and months......OldKingCole said:MarqueeMark said:
Woe betide those MPs that the public perceive are delaying Brexit just to get it past the 31st October so they can go nur-nur na nur-nur to the Prime Minister.....AndyJS said:The consensus view seems to be that there probably is a majority for Johnson's deal but not by 31st October.
If I thought my solicitor was just giving a quick flick-though to the deeds of my new house, rather than reading them properly, I'd be somewhat miffed. Especially if something went wrong shortly after I'd signed.MarqueeMark said:
Woe betide those MPs that the public perceive are delaying Brexit just to get it past the 31st October so they can go nur-nur na nur-nur to the Prime Minister.....AndyJS said:The consensus view seems to be that there probably is a majority for Johnson's deal but not by 31st October.
0 -
So how many items did you pick out of it that MPs (of various shades) will dislike or will it just sail through?Casino_Royale said:
I speed read the main Bill last night in about 20 minutes. Easily done. It’s 40 pages of clauses with about 70 of schedules and annexes.Nigelb said:
So you’ve read and analysed the entire bill and think it should be passed with minimal scrutiny ?Casino_Royale said:
I’m not sure opposition MPs realise how nakedly transparent that play is to the general public.MarqueeMark said:
Woe betide those MPs that the public perceive are delaying Brexit just to get it past the 31st October so they can go nur-nur na nur-nur to the Prime Minister.....AndyJS said:The consensus view seems to be that there probably is a majority for Johnson's deal but not by 31st October.
They won’t profit by it. It just looks petulant at the country’s expense.
One of the blank cheque Boris brigade.
The rest is hokum. The Deal has been on the table for almost a year. MPs have debated the WA exhaustively.
The delaying tactics are very obvious, and rather desperate.
I ask as my quick scan through picked up a lot of items Parliament is going to hate and fight over.
And just as an example, the need for paperwork for all exports from NI to GB really wasn't made clear until it was written down. Likewise the checks on live animal exports from NI to Ireland,0 -
Feeble.Gallowgate said:
Depends if the old house was beautiful and the new house is a crack den.MarqueeMark said:
Yet if those deeds were largely pro forma and he had been sat on them for an age, you'd equally be somewhat miffed if he was telling you that moving into your new couldn't happen for months and months......OldKingCole said:MarqueeMark said:
Woe betide those MPs that the public perceive are delaying Brexit just to get it past the 31st October so they can go nur-nur na nur-nur to the Prime Minister.....AndyJS said:The consensus view seems to be that there probably is a majority for Johnson's deal but not by 31st October.
If I thought my solicitor was just giving a quick flick-though to the deeds of my new house, rather than reading them properly, I'd be somewhat miffed. Especially if something went wrong shortly after I'd signed.MarqueeMark said:
Woe betide those MPs that the public perceive are delaying Brexit just to get it past the 31st October so they can go nur-nur na nur-nur to the Prime Minister.....AndyJS said:The consensus view seems to be that there probably is a majority for Johnson's deal but not by 31st October.
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Those rushing Brexit through had better hope everything goes absolutely swimmingly, because if it doesn’t you’re really going to own every single problem.0
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I was just about to cite that as what is surely going to be the major stumbling block.eek said:
So how many items did you pick out of it that MPs (of various shades) will dislike or will it just sail through?Casino_Royale said:
I speed read the main Bill last night in about 20 minutes. Easily done. It’s 40 pages of clauses with about 70 of schedules and annexes.Nigelb said:
So you’ve read and analysed the entire bill and think it should be passed with minimal scrutiny ?Casino_Royale said:
I’m not sure opposition MPs realise how nakedly transparent that play is to the general public.MarqueeMark said:
Woe betide those MPs that the public perceive are delaying Brexit just to get it past the 31st October so they can go nur-nur na nur-nur to the Prime Minister.....AndyJS said:The consensus view seems to be that there probably is a majority for Johnson's deal but not by 31st October.
They won’t profit by it. It just looks petulant at the country’s expense.
One of the blank cheque Boris brigade.
The rest is hokum. The Deal has been on the table for almost a year. MPs have debated the WA exhaustively.
The delaying tactics are very obvious, and rather desperate.
I ask as my quick scan through picked up a lot of items Parliament is going to hate and fight over.
And just as an example, the need for paperwork for all exports from NI to GB really wasn't made clear until it was written down. Likewise the checks on live animal exports from NI to Ireland,
It is also of course the key reason why this is a worse deal than May’s was.0 -
Leavers really think any of this is going to change anyones minds? Views are cemented. We are split pretty much 50/50.
Remainers obstructing isnt going to lose any votes. If anything they’d lose votes if they didn’t.
Just like Boris being Boris is not going to lose any votes.0 -
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1186535530655371264
Are the ERG really going to hold their noses and vote for this?0 -
So we’re going from frictionless trade across the whole of Europe to not even frictionless trade within our own country? Heh.Scott_P said:https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1186535530655371264
Are the ERG really going to hold their noses and vote for this?0 -
The key point now is how this sets up the aftermath. Boris and the Conservatives own this outright. They have forced this through. If all is well they will benefit, but if the land of Brexit milk and honey fails to materialise they’ll have problems.Gallowgate said:Leavers really think any of this is going to change anyones minds? Views are cemented. We are split pretty much 50/50.
Remainers obstructing isnt going to lose any votes. If anything they’d lose votes if they didn’t.
Just like Boris being Boris is not going to lose any votes.0 -
Mr. Northstar, I agree. The second game's just more polished, I think.
DA2 was obviously rushed. But, given that, it's not bad.
Sadly, given what's happened, my hopes for DA4 are pretty minimal.
Wouldn't be surprised if Bioware ended up being shut down.0 -
I don't trust Boris. but I trust very few MPs, and that's based on their actions over the last three years.
Very few voters with a brain do now. Why do we elect a bunch a bunch of shysters to rule - or should that misrule - over us?
On a scale of respect, they come below journalists and estate agents and just above child molesters. And even below liars who don't have the powers MPs possess.
When they're forced into facing the people, I'll vote for one whose pants aren't burning yet.
0 -
Canadian politics has always been very interesting, they've had a much longer history of multi party politics under FPTP. Looks this time like the Liberals benefited from their status as Not The Tories, which has cost the NDP from breaking through. If anything the results could be seen as mildly encouraging for Labour and worrying for the LIB dems. Being Not The Tories will always be a very powerful weapon.0
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Yes.Scott_P said:https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1186535530655371264
Are the ERG really going to hold their noses and vote for this?
Just as Labour members opposed welfare cuts when Harriet Harman was leader and enthusiastically support them under Corbyn.
It’s the messenger they listen to, not the message.0 -
The devil is in the detail - clearly you haven't read the act yet as if you had you would be able to point things out like:-MarqueeMark said:
Feeble.Gallowgate said:
Depends if the old house was beautiful and the new house is a crack den.MarqueeMark said:
Yet if those deeds were largely pro forma and he had been sat on them for an age, you'd equally be somewhat miffed if he was telling you that moving into your new couldn't happen for months and months......OldKingCole said:MarqueeMark said:
Woe betide those MPs that the public perceive are delaying Brexit just to get it past the 31st October so they can go nur-nur na nur-nur to the Prime Minister.....AndyJS said:The consensus view seems to be that there probably is a majority for Johnson's deal but not by 31st October.
If I thought my solicitor was just giving a quick flick-though to the deeds of my new house, rather than reading them properly, I'd be somewhat miffed. Especially if something went wrong shortly after I'd signed.MarqueeMark said:
Woe betide those MPs that the public perceive are delaying Brexit just to get it past the 31st October so they can go nur-nur na nur-nur to the Prime Minister.....AndyJS said:The consensus view seems to be that there probably is a majority for Johnson's deal but not by 31st October.
NI has paperwork for all exports to the uk
Oh and animals into Southern Ireland (so the all ireland agriculture deal really worked for Bois)
We still pay into the European Development Fund after 2020
We can't bail out companies that Brexit damages...
And that's from my first quick glance - I'm sure far more and far worse nasties exist in the document.0 -
Perhaps won’t change people’s minds on the core question of “Brexit right or wrong”. Might change people’s minds in relation to the political parties. For example what does a person think who wasGallowgate said:Leavers really think any of this is going to change anyones minds? Views are cemented. We are split pretty much 50/50.
Remainers obstructing isnt going to lose any votes. If anything they’d lose votes if they didn’t.
Just like Boris being Boris is not going to lose any votes.
1) a eurosceptic remainer
2) thinks we should probably leave because of the referendum result
3) but not without a deal, certainly not a crash out one
4) doesn’t want another referendum
5) but would probably vote remain if we did0 -
Which is why BoZo still needs an election before any of the ordure meets the spinny thing...Jonathan said:The key point now is how this sets up the aftermath. Boris and the Conservatives own this outright. They have forced this through. If all is well they will benefit, but if the land of Brexit milk and honey fails to materialise they’ll have problems.
0 -
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Well then they’re already supporting the deal?alex. said:
Dubious, won’t change people’s minds on the core question of “Brexit right or wrong”. Might change people’s minds in relation to the political parties. For example what does a person think who wasGallowgate said:Leavers really think any of this is going to change anyones minds? Views are cemented. We are split pretty much 50/50.
Remainers obstructing isnt going to lose any votes. If anything they’d lose votes if they didn’t.
Just like Boris being Boris is not going to lose any votes.
1) a eurosceptic remainer
2) thinks we should probably leave because of the referendum result
3) but not without a deal, certainly not a crash out one
4) doesn’t want another referendum
5) but would probably vote remain if we did0 -
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Speaking for myself as I think I meet all your criteria:alex. said:
Dubious, won’t change people’s minds on the core question of “Brexit right or wrong”. Might change people’s minds in relation to the political parties. For example what does a person think who wasGallowgate said:Leavers really think any of this is going to change anyones minds? Views are cemented. We are split pretty much 50/50.
Remainers obstructing isnt going to lose any votes. If anything they’d lose votes if they didn’t.
Just like Boris being Boris is not going to lose any votes.
1) a eurosceptic remainer
2) thinks we should probably leave because of the referendum result
3) but not without a deal, certainly not a crash out one
4) doesn’t want another referendum
5) but would probably vote remain if we did
I think the Liberal Democrats will have my vote at the next election.0 -
And keeps the Brexit sore openPulpstar said:Also Benn finds something to his dislike in the WAIB - what were the chances of that
!
Firstly it will undermine the negotiating position (you must sign this deal!) and there will be endless agonising in Parliament about it
Far better to let the Executive handle it subject to parliamentary oversight
If you really think necessary have an in camera committee to be briefed on progress0 -
Not if they fight. Yes if they roll.nico67 said:I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .
A martyr election might suit him .
One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .
The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .0 -
Cameron failed to apply the limits on immigration that we currently have, why would the EU give us more powers when we weren't using the ones we currently have?Nemtynakht said:
I didnt say Cameron asked for a looser trading arrangement. He wanted to stay a member. You are right to say he wanted reasonable measures on deregulation, immigration and jobs. As the EU didn’t think we would vote Leave they didn’t see these proposals as a proper negotiation and therefore left Cameron out on a limb.edmundintokyo said:
Cameron didn't ask for a loose trading relationship. When he announced the referendum thing he said he wanted deregulation and job creation, then after the election he stuck with the referendum promise but changed the request to more control of immigration.Nemtynakht said:That’s immediately incorrect. The EU is also negotiating a more distant trade relationship with its biggest trading partner.
https://fullfact.org/europe/where-does-eu-export/#
In fact if they had given Cameron something when he wanted a looser relationship within the EU we would never have had to have had the referendum.
He was committed to the referendum either way, so it would still have been held regardless of what he'd negotiated. Arguably there were some changes which, had the EU agreed to them, would have changed the outcome of the referendum, but I think it would probably have gone the way it did whatever he'd brought back; The Leave side ran on immigration from Turkey, which the UK already had a veto on.0 -
Do you think there may be a lack of trust in MPs willingness to pass any Brexit measure in a timely fashion?Beibheirli_C said:
Indeed, and the simple fact that he appears to be trying to avoid scrutiny is why everything he does must be checked and rechecked.david_herdson said:Anyone who thinks Johnson's actions since becoming PM are out of character is a naive fool. It's not his actions since becoming PM that have led to him being totally mistrusted and disbelieved; it's his actions of the last 40 years.
Has the Tory Party always been this myopic?0 -
United Ireland here we come !0
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+1Casino_Royale said:
Yes, I think I agree with most of that.Scott_P said:0 -
Helloalex. said:
Perhaps won’t change people’s minds on the core question of “Brexit right or wrong”. Might change people’s minds in relation to the political parties. For example what does a person think who wasGallowgate said:Leavers really think any of this is going to change anyones minds? Views are cemented. We are split pretty much 50/50.
Remainers obstructing isnt going to lose any votes. If anything they’d lose votes if they didn’t.
Just like Boris being Boris is not going to lose any votes.
1) a eurosceptic remainer
2) thinks we should probably leave because of the referendum result
3) but not without a deal, certainly not a crash out one
4) doesn’t want another referendum
5) but would probably vote remain if we did0 -
I expect he will win, but the Tories will probably spend the next five years regretting it in a rerun of 92-97 or 07-10.Scott_P said:
Which is why BoZo still needs an election before any of the ordure meets the spinny thing...Jonathan said:The key point now is how this sets up the aftermath. Boris and the Conservatives own this outright. They have forced this through. If all is well they will benefit, but if the land of Brexit milk and honey fails to materialise they’ll have problems.
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Ditto, FWIW.ydoethur said:
Speaking for myself as I think I meet all your criteria:alex. said:
Dubious, won’t change people’s minds on the core question of “Brexit right or wrong”. Might change people’s minds in relation to the political parties. For example what does a person think who wasGallowgate said:Leavers really think any of this is going to change anyones minds? Views are cemented. We are split pretty much 50/50.
Remainers obstructing isnt going to lose any votes. If anything they’d lose votes if they didn’t.
Just like Boris being Boris is not going to lose any votes.
1) a eurosceptic remainer
2) thinks we should probably leave because of the referendum result
3) but not without a deal, certainly not a crash out one
4) doesn’t want another referendum
5) but would probably vote remain if we did
I think the Liberal Democrats will have my vote at the next election.0 -
Hardly, delivering Brexit and beating Corbyn and a 4th Tory term in office is key but you can only stretch the elastic so farJonathan said:
I expect he will win, but the Tories will probably spend the next five years regretting it in a rerun of 92-97 or 07-10.Scott_P said:
Which is why BoZo still needs an election before any of the ordure meets the spinny thing...Jonathan said:The key point now is how this sets up the aftermath. Boris and the Conservatives own this outright. They have forced this through. If all is well they will benefit, but if the land of Brexit milk and honey fails to materialise they’ll have problems.
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