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SystemSystem Posts: 12,127
edited October 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson’s problem is that his actions since becoming PM have led to him being totally mistrusted and disbelieved

Clause 30 of the EU (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill. What happens if the Government doesn’t propose an extension? Parliament would have no say and we would exit the transition period on the 31 Dec 2020 even if a trade agreement hadn’t been reached by then with the EU; ie no deal. pic.twitter.com/mbCAsrX0eB

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Comments

  • Whatever,
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    whenever
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,824
    Whoever
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,872
    Whyever?
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    unanimity?
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    However.......
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,824
    Whatsoever!
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Trevor?
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    God forbid - forever
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,678
    Anyone who thinks Johnson's actions since becoming PM are out of character is a naive fool. It's not his actions since becoming PM that have led to him being totally mistrusted and disbelieved; it's his actions of the last 40 years.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,892
    Theresa May was also NOWHERE near getting a majority for her deal
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    someone had to I suppose
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,892
    Also Benn finds something to his dislike in the WAIB - what were the chances of that :o !
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    I'm certainly no fan of BJ but "nothing's moving" is certainly more interesting now than under TM.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    Pulpstar said:

    Also Benn finds something to his dislike in the WAIB - what were the chances of that :o !

    Next up will be some highly informative opinion from Owen Jones on why it’s no good.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Pulpstar said:

    Also Benn finds something to his dislike in the WAIB - what were the chances of that :o !

    I was wondering about his motivation - who trusts Benn?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,824
    Pulpstar said:

    Also Benn finds something to his dislike in the WAIB - what were the chances of that :o !

    I've been waiting for any clangers, but the main concerns seem to be on this rather procedural point. An easy concession, especially if there's going to be another election which renders legislation like this moot.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,892
    Also the opposition outnumbers the Gov't - even if you include the ex Tories in the Gov't numbers. They should stick in another PM if they don't like the WAIB and negotiate their own bloody deal or revoke or whatever
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Pulpstar said:

    Also Benn finds something to his dislike in the WAIB - what were the chances of that :o !

    Next up will be some highly informative opinion from Owen Jones on why it’s no good.
    What opinion from OJ could possibly tell us anything we didn't already know about him. It's well known he's an arse wipe.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

    A martyr election might suit him .

    One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

    The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,824
    nico67 said:

    I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

    A martyr election might suit him .

    One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

    The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

    Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Also Benn finds something to his dislike in the WAIB - what were the chances of that :o !

    I've been waiting for any clangers, but the main concerns seem to be on this rather procedural point. An easy concession, especially if there's going to be another election which renders legislation like this moot.
    Election you say? What’s that? Is that when a new government can be formed which can
    make any changes if they have a majority of MP’s? Hmmm. Sounds like an exotic mechanism.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    Anyone who thinks Johnson's actions since becoming PM are out of character is a naive fool. It's not his actions since becoming PM that have led to him being totally mistrusted and disbelieved; it's his actions of the last 40 years.

    Indeed, and the simple fact that he appears to be trying to avoid scrutiny is why everything he does must be checked and rechecked.

    Has the Tory Party always been this myopic?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Canada election night show:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GYrY_945co0
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Pulpstar said:

    Also the opposition outnumbers the Gov't - even if you include the ex Tories in the Gov't numbers. They should stick in another PM if they don't like the WAIB and negotiate their own bloody deal or revoke or whatever

    That'll never catch on in the Commons
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    nico67 said:

    I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

    A martyr election might suit him .

    One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

    The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

    This is a very tough game to call for the DUP. Without the Tory Unionists they would be nigh on friendless in HoC.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Also Benn finds something to his dislike in the WAIB - what were the chances of that :o !

    I've been waiting for any clangers, but the main concerns seem to be on this rather procedural point. An easy concession, especially if there's going to be another election which renders legislation like this moot.
    Election you say? What’s that? Is that when a new government can be formed which can
    make any changes if they have a majority of MP’s? Hmmm. Sounds like an exotic mechanism.
    old fashioned but hardly exotic
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Just for fun:

    Why is it Johnsons date?

    T May - she got the extension to 31/10
    EU - They extended to 31/10

    Johnson said get it done by the date that is in the legislation, you could justifiably take his stance to mean "I will bust a gut to comply with the current law and get Brexit over the line by 31/10."

    In reality that was the only responsible action, as a further extension was not a certainty. (And still isn't if the Dicks keep Dicking around.)
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    nico67 said:

    I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

    A martyr election might suit him .

    One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

    The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

    This is a very tough game to call for the DUP. Without the Tory Unionists they would be nigh on friendless in HoC.
    It would probably suit the DUP more to be martyrs. Gives them a reason for existing.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Anyone who thinks Johnson's actions since becoming PM are out of character is a naive fool. It's not his actions since becoming PM that have led to him being totally mistrusted and disbelieved; it's his actions of the last 40 years.

    Indeed, and the simple fact that he appears to be trying to avoid scrutiny is why everything he does must be checked and rechecked.

    Has the Tory Party always been this myopic?
    Through Irish eyes, probably?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

    A martyr election might suit him .

    One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

    The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

    Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.
    Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

    The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

    The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

    I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,824
    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

    A martyr election might suit him .

    One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

    The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

    Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.
    Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

    The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

    The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

    I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

    The DUP were pretty explicit about rejecting the customs union amendment. That, and the one about the extension mechanism, seem to be the biggest issues so far. I don't think the second referendum amendment has much of a chance.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    Anyone who thinks Johnson's actions since becoming PM are out of character is a naive fool. It's not his actions since becoming PM that have led to him being totally mistrusted and disbelieved; it's his actions of the last 40 years.

    Indeed, and the simple fact that he appears to be trying to avoid scrutiny is why everything he does must be checked and rechecked.

    Has the Tory Party always been this myopic?
    Through Irish eyes, probably?
    Yes. Why not?
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    philiph said:

    Just for fun:

    Why is it Johnsons date?

    T May - she got the extension to 31/10
    EU - They extended to 31/10

    Johnson said get it done by the date that is in the legislation, you could justifiably take his stance to mean "I will bust a gut to comply with the current law and get Brexit over the line by 31/10."

    In reality that was the only responsible action, as a further extension was not a certainty. (And still isn't if the Dicks keep Dicking around.)

    That seems sensible - no need to duck
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,872
    nico67 said:

    I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

    A martyr election might suit him .

    One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

    The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

    I think he definitely wants it through. Despite the confidence that this time it will be different as its him in charge, he should know very well that poll leads can disappear in a campaign, and he knows his bridges are burned with Farage by getting a deal - whe lots of BXP wont listen to Farage on this its still easy for the man to take even a few % off Boris and cost crucial seats.

    Moreover he defied expectations to deliver a deal and mostly unite his party, regardless of the merits of that deal. Hes staked so much on this deal happening I just dont think he is soft pedalling things so he can be a martyr.

    I think the silly timetable is an attempt to make even a short extension look like more of a parliament forced betrayal. If he said he wanted 7 days and they extended it to 14 that's bad enough, but if he says we can do it in 3 and they extend 14 days it's much worse.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

    A martyr election might suit him .

    One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

    The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

    Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.
    Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

    The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

    The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

    I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

    I'm out of date on Irish politics.

    Are the UUP still a more moderate Unionist party than the DUP?

    It all got confused for me when Paisley found he could be best buddies with McGuiness.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

    A martyr election might suit him .

    One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

    The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

    Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.
    Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

    The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

    The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

    I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

    https://twitter.com/qnewsdesk/status/1186382372008349696
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

    A martyr election might suit him .

    One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

    The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

    Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.
    Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

    The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

    The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

    I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

    Like I said on here last night, the DUP are simple beasts. A United Ireland is the one thing they will NOT tolerate under any circumstance.

    That is why the EU and the GFA are so powerful. They allow both sides to live with the fiction that they have both won and the other side has lost/given up.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,872
    edited October 2019
    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

    A martyr election might suit him .

    One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

    The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

    Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.
    Have they actually said that or just that a CU is unacceptable? Because they're not the same thing.

    Vote for CU and maybe Boris pulls the bill maybe he doesnt. If he doesnt it wont pass anyway as ERG will flip and DUP and others still vote to down. And if it still looks like passing VONC. DUP are the heroes of remain, temporarily, and dont get a CU from backing it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,892
    I'm not sure it matters if the bill passes or not now. Well obviously does but I think either scenario can work for the Tories electorally.
    Right now they're getting De Facto confidence and supply from ex Labour MPs, the Lib Dems and the DUP all of who dislike them but find the idea of Corbyn in power even worse !
  • Canada

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GYrY_945co0

    First polls close at midnight UK time in Newfoundland, Quebec/Ontario at 2.30 am UK

    Thanks!

    DC
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    nico67 said:

    I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

    A martyr election might suit him .

    One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

    The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

    This is a very tough game to call for the DUP. Without the Tory Unionists they would be nigh on friendless in HoC.
    It would probably suit the DUP more to be martyrs. Gives them a reason for existing.
    I can't see the sense behind playing to the home crowd when you're playing the actual game away. I think the DUP is actually a very savvy organisation - NI is in play without British political support.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

    A martyr election might suit him .

    One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

    The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

    Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.
    Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

    The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

    The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

    I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

    The DUP were pretty explicit about rejecting the customs union amendment. That, and the one about the extension mechanism, seem to be the biggest issues so far. I don't think the second referendum amendment has much of a chance.
    That was before Barclaygate! The way the DUP see it they don’t care if Johnson does his martyr election .

    If they’re seen to have helped wreck the deal they can say they did what they had to . They can’t be seen to help facilitate this deal in any way .

    I’m not saying the deal won’t still go through . It might still , I think there’s a majority for it at the moment .

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2019
    I don't think any deal is ever going to be acceptable to a majority of people and/or MPs. So it's going to eventually come down to Remain or No Deal, but that probably won't happen for a while.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    edited October 2019
    philiph said:

    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

    A martyr election might suit him .

    One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

    The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

    Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.
    Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

    The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

    The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

    I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

    I'm out of date on Irish politics.

    Are the UUP still a more moderate Unionist party than the DUP?

    It all got confused for me when Paisley found he could be best buddies with McGuiness.
    The UUP is a shadow of its former self. A few Council seats and some Assembly seats, but it is definitely second fiddle to the DUP. Compared to the DUP, everyone is a moderate.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm not sure it matters if the bill passes or not now. Well obviously does but I think either scenario can work for the Tories electorally.
    Right now they're getting De Facto confidence and supply from ex Labour MPs, the Lib Dems and the DUP all of who dislike them but find the idea of Corbyn in power even worse !

    Haven’t the SNP indicated they’re up for allowing an election?
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Anyone who thinks Johnson's actions since becoming PM are out of character is a naive fool. It's not his actions since becoming PM that have led to him being totally mistrusted and disbelieved; it's his actions of the last 40 years.

    Indeed, and the simple fact that he appears to be trying to avoid scrutiny is why everything he does must be checked and rechecked.

    Has the Tory Party always been this myopic?
    Through Irish eyes, probably?
    Yes. Why not?
    I can quite see why.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    Anyone who thinks Johnson's actions since becoming PM are out of character is a naive fool. It's not his actions since becoming PM that have led to him being totally mistrusted and disbelieved; it's his actions of the last 40 years.

    Indeed, and the simple fact that he appears to be trying to avoid scrutiny is why everything he does must be checked and rechecked.

    Has the Tory Party always been this myopic?
    Through Irish eyes, probably?
    Yes. Why not?
    I can quite see why.
    :)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tonight is a very exciting night because it's election night. In Canada on this occasion.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm not sure it matters if the bill passes or not now. Well obviously does but I think either scenario can work for the Tories electorally.
    Right now they're getting De Facto confidence and supply from ex Labour MPs, the Lib Dems and the DUP all of who dislike them but find the idea of Corbyn in power even worse !

    Do not make that mistake about the DUP. They might dislike Corbyn, but if they think that Corbyn will not put a border down the Irish Sea they will support him in a heartbeat.

    Remember that they held their noses and worked with Sinn Fein for years. Do you think that they could not manage to find a way to tolerate Corbyn?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    philiph said:

    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

    A martyr election might suit him .

    One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

    The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

    Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.
    Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

    The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

    The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

    I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

    I'm out of date on Irish politics.

    Are the UUP still a more moderate Unionist party than the DUP?

    It all got confused for me when Paisley found he could be best buddies with McGuiness.
    The UUP is a shadow of its former self. A few Council seats and some Assembly seats, but it is definitely second fiddle to the DUP. Compared to the DUP, everyone is a moderate.

    I seem to remember the demise of the UUP was another of those rapid extinctions of a dominant political party.

    Add to Labour in Scotland as an example of how quickly change can come.

    Supporters who think it can't happen here need to wake up.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,121
    Did anyone else sing the first four post to Shakira?

    On topic, the opposition would always find some other reason to delay. Against a minority Govt they refuse to VONC, "we don't have confidence the government will do xyz"is a pretty weak one.
  • nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

    A martyr election might suit him .

    One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

    The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

    Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.
    Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

    The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

    The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

    I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

    Like I said on here last night, the DUP are simple beasts. A United Ireland is the one thing they will NOT tolerate under any circumstance.

    That is why the EU and the GFA are so powerful. They allow both sides to live with the fiction that they have both won and the other side has lost/given up.
    Definitely time for a Border Poll.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    kle4 said:

    nico67 said:

    I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

    A martyr election might suit him .

    One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

    The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

    I think he definitely wants it through. Despite the confidence that this time it will be different as its him in charge, he should know very well that poll leads can disappear in a campaign, and he knows his bridges are burned with Farage by getting a deal - whe lots of BXP wont listen to Farage on this its still easy for the man to take even a few % off Boris and cost crucial seats.

    Moreover he defied expectations to deliver a deal and mostly unite his party, regardless of the merits of that deal. Hes staked so much on this deal happening I just dont think he is soft pedalling things so he can be a martyr.

    I think the silly timetable is an attempt to make even a short extension look like more of a parliament forced betrayal. If he said he wanted 7 days and they extended it to 14 that's bad enough, but if he says we can do it in 3 and they extend 14 days it's much worse.
    Tactically I reckon he figures that closing a deal is a big win and being seen as having been prevented from closing a deal by those bastard Remainers is a not so big win
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,872

    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

    A martyr election might suit him .

    One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

    The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

    Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.
    Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

    The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

    The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

    I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

    https://twitter.com/qnewsdesk/status/1186382372008349696
    I cannot imagine how depressing the NI situation must have been during the troubles, as its depressing enough that their politics is so entrenched and sectarian now. Brexit or no Brexit can they get back on track?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,892
    Trudeau to win and do a banana boat rendition at his victory rally.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,872
    Drutt said:

    Did anyone else sing the first four post to Shakira?

    No.

    Not out loud anyway.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    kle4 said:

    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

    A martyr election might suit him .

    One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

    The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

    Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.
    Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

    The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

    The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

    I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

    https://twitter.com/qnewsdesk/status/1186382372008349696
    I cannot imagine how depressing the NI situation must have been during the troubles, as its depressing enough that their politics is so entrenched and sectarian now. Brexit or no Brexit can they get back on track?
    You want us back on track? Remain or EEA.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

    A martyr election might suit him .

    One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

    The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

    Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.
    Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

    The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

    The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

    I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

    Like I said on here last night, the DUP are simple beasts. A United Ireland is the one thing they will NOT tolerate under any circumstance.

    That is why the EU and the GFA are so powerful. They allow both sides to live with the fiction that they have both won and the other side has lost/given up.
    Definitely time for a Border Poll.
    That will not solve anything. It will just fire up the hotheads on the losing side.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,872
    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

    A martyr election might suit him .

    One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

    The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

    Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.
    Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

    The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

    The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

    I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

    The DUP were pretty explicit about rejecting the customs union amendment. That, and the one about the extension mechanism, seem to be the biggest issues so far. I don't think the second referendum amendment has much of a chance.
    That was before Barclaygate! The way the DUP see it they don’t care if Johnson does his martyr election .

    If they’re seen to have helped wreck the deal they can say they did what they had to . They can’t be seen to help facilitate this deal in any way .

    I’m not saying the deal won’t still go through . It might still , I think there’s a majority for it at the moment .

    Give it a week and that'll no longer be the case.

    On Canada I'd assume Trudeau will cling on in post. Be pretty embarrassing to only get 1 term.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

    A martyr election might suit him .

    One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

    The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

    Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.
    Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

    The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

    The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

    I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

    The DUP were pretty explicit about rejecting the customs union amendment. That, and the one about the extension mechanism, seem to be the biggest issues so far. I don't think the second referendum amendment has much of a chance.
    That was before Barclaygate! The way the DUP see it they don’t care if Johnson does his martyr election .

    If they’re seen to have helped wreck the deal they can say they did what they had to . They can’t be seen to help facilitate this deal in any way .

    I’m not saying the deal won’t still go through . It might still , I think there’s a majority for it at the moment .

    The DUP has to have British friends. As I've said, a difficult call tactically
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,872

    kle4 said:

    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

    A martyr election might suit him .

    One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

    The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

    Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.
    Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

    The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

    The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

    I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

    https://twitter.com/qnewsdesk/status/1186382372008349696
    I cannot imagine how depressing the NI situation must have been during the troubles, as its depressing enough that their politics is so entrenched and sectarian now. Brexit or no Brexit can they get back on track?
    You want us back on track? Remain or EEA.
    I do want to remain, on balance (I remain content with a deal exit) but while they were working together for plenty of years from the outside the sectarian nature of the politics still looks ingrained.
  • nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

    A martyr election might suit him .

    One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

    The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

    Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.
    Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

    The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

    The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

    I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

    Like I said on here last night, the DUP are simple beasts. A United Ireland is the one thing they will NOT tolerate under any circumstance.

    That is why the EU and the GFA are so powerful. They allow both sides to live with the fiction that they have both won and the other side has lost/given up.
    Definitely time for a Border Poll.
    That will not solve anything. It will just fire up the hotheads on the losing side.
    Tough. It is written into both the GFA and the Irish Constitution and is long overdue. Long term it is the only rational solution anyway.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm not sure it matters if the bill passes or not now. Well obviously does but I think either scenario can work for the Tories electorally.
    Right now they're getting De Facto confidence and supply from ex Labour MPs, the Lib Dems and the DUP all of who dislike them but find the idea of Corbyn in power even worse !

    Do not make that mistake about the DUP. They might dislike Corbyn, but if they think that Corbyn will not put a border down the Irish Sea they will support him in a heartbeat.

    Remember that they held their noses and worked with Sinn Fein for years. Do you think that they could not manage to find a way to tolerate Corbyn?
    Could the DUP ever trust Corbyn? Genuine question.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,707
    kle4 said:


    I think he definitely wants it through. Despite the confidence that this time it will be different as its him in charge, he should know very well that poll leads can disappear in a campaign, and he knows his bridges are burned with Farage by getting a deal - whe lots of BXP wont listen to Farage on this its still easy for the man to take even a few % off Boris and cost crucial seats.

    Moreover he defied expectations to deliver a deal and mostly unite his party, regardless of the merits of that deal. Hes staked so much on this deal happening I just dont think he is soft pedalling things so he can be a martyr.

    I think the silly timetable is an attempt to make even a short extension look like more of a parliament forced betrayal. If he said he wanted 7 days and they extended it to 14 that's bad enough, but if he says we can do it in 3 and they extend 14 days it's much worse.

    There's that, but also, he's currently riding on momentum from getting a deal that the ERG liked against the odds, which has marginalized Farage and any other opposition. More time will give his opponents a chance to regroup and hit him from both ends: The costs and complexities involved in dealing with the GB-NI when-is-a-border-not-a-border and the harder brexit, and various demagogue-able details that the Faragists will start circulating on facebook, which will leave right-wing voters wondering why the Daily Mail isn't telling them about them.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Alternative Canadian election show to CBC:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ykJtEiOT9SI
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    AndyJS said:

    Alternative Canadian election show to CBC:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ykJtEiOT9SI

    Has there been an exit poll?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm not sure it matters if the bill passes or not now. Well obviously does but I think either scenario can work for the Tories electorally.
    Right now they're getting De Facto confidence and supply from ex Labour MPs, the Lib Dems and the DUP all of who dislike them but find the idea of Corbyn in power even worse !

    Do not make that mistake about the DUP. They might dislike Corbyn, but if they think that Corbyn will not put a border down the Irish Sea they will support him in a heartbeat.

    Remember that they held their noses and worked with Sinn Fein for years. Do you think that they could not manage to find a way to tolerate Corbyn?
    Could the DUP ever trust Corbyn? Genuine question.
    All things are relative. I would expect that anyone is more trustable than Johnson. Like all politicians, Corbyn may be economical with the truth and spin things, but Johnson has shown himself to be utterly untrustworthy.

    If you had to choose, Corbyn might be the winner.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,892
    Hull, Whitby, Newmarket all seats lol
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,892
    What system does Canada use for their ridings - FPTP or ?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

    A martyr election might suit him .

    One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

    The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

    Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.
    Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

    The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

    The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

    I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

    Like I said on here last night, the DUP are simple beasts. A United Ireland is the one thing they will NOT tolerate under any circumstance.

    That is why the EU and the GFA are so powerful. They allow both sides to live with the fiction that they have both won and the other side has lost/given up.
    Definitely time for a Border Poll.
    That will not solve anything. It will just fire up the hotheads on the losing side.
    Tough. It is written into both the GFA and the Irish Constitution and is long overdue. Long term it is the only rational solution anyway.
    No. Long term the solution is the same as the solution for Brexit. Let the older generation die off and allow the younger generation to move forward and unite in common endeavour with neighbouring countries.

    Hiding behind walls is the way of the past.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    Pulpstar said:

    What system does Canada use for their ridings - FPTP or ?

    Pretty sure they use FPTP.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,707
    kle4 said:


    I cannot imagine how depressing the NI situation must have been during the troubles, as its depressing enough that their politics is so entrenched and sectarian now. Brexit or no Brexit can they get back on track?

    Sure they can, just stay in the EU and wait 80 years.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    edited October 2019
    Apparently if Boris loses the timetable motion tomorrow he'll pull the bill and push for a general election.

    SNP was showing some leg to Boris on an election today (yesterday) and Jezza is on record as saying he'll agree to an election if Boris sends the surrender letter (which has happened) so it looks like by this time tomorrow we could be well on our way to an election for 5th December?
  • nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

    A martyr election might suit him .

    One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

    The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

    Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.
    Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

    The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

    The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

    I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

    Like I said on here last night, the DUP are simple beasts. A United Ireland is the one thing they will NOT tolerate under any circumstance.

    That is why the EU and the GFA are so powerful. They allow both sides to live with the fiction that they have both won and the other side has lost/given up.
    Definitely time for a Border Poll.
    That will not solve anything. It will just fire up the hotheads on the losing side.
    Tough. It is written into both the GFA and the Irish Constitution and is long overdue. Long term it is the only rational solution anyway.
    No. Long term the solution is the same as the solution for Brexit. Let the older generation die off and allow the younger generation to move forward and unite in common endeavour with neighbouring countries.

    Hiding behind walls is the way of the past.
    You are the one wanting to hide behind walls. A united Ireland is long overdue. You and your ideas are part of the problem not the solution.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,892
    These early voting numbers are hilariously low in the Canadian election. Sparse areas !
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    GIN1138 said:

    Apparently if Boris loses the timetable motion tomorrow he'll pull the bill and push for a general election.

    SNP was showing some leg to Boris on an election today (yesterday) and Jezza is on record as saying he'll agree to an election if Boris sends the surrender letter (which has happened) so it looks like by this time tomorrow we could be well on our way to an election for 5th December?

    Why? Surely he has the votes for his deal now? And if he goes for a GE without any extension agreed why would Labour agree to a GE?

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,892
    Cyclefree said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Apparently if Boris loses the timetable motion tomorrow he'll pull the bill and push for a general election.

    SNP was showing some leg to Boris on an election today (yesterday) and Jezza is on record as saying he'll agree to an election if Boris sends the surrender letter (which has happened) so it looks like by this time tomorrow we could be well on our way to an election for 5th December?

    Why? Surely he has the votes for his deal now? And if he goes for a GE without any extension agreed why would Labour agree to a GE?

    Not up to Labour if the SNP agree to it "notwithstanding" the FTPA.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320

    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

    A martyr election might suit him .

    One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

    The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

    Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.
    Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

    The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

    The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

    I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

    Like I said on here last night, the DUP are simple beasts. A United Ireland is the one thing they will NOT tolerate under any circumstance.

    That is why the EU and the GFA are so powerful. They allow both sides to live with the fiction that they have both won and the other side has lost/given up.
    Definitely time for a Border Poll.
    That will not solve anything. It will just fire up the hotheads on the losing side.
    Tough. It is written into both the GFA and the Irish Constitution and is long overdue. Long term it is the only rational solution anyway.
    No. Long term the solution is the same as the solution for Brexit. Let the older generation die off and allow the younger generation to move forward and unite in common endeavour with neighbouring countries.

    Hiding behind walls is the way of the past.
    You are the one wanting to hide behind walls. A united Ireland is long overdue. You and your ideas are part of the problem not the solution.
    You are the one wanting to hide behind walls. A united Europe is long overdue. You and your ideas are part of the problem not the solution.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm not sure it matters if the bill passes or not now. Well obviously does but I think either scenario can work for the Tories electorally.
    Right now they're getting De Facto confidence and supply from ex Labour MPs, the Lib Dems and the DUP all of who dislike them but find the idea of Corbyn in power even worse !

    Do not make that mistake about the DUP. They might dislike Corbyn, but if they think that Corbyn will not put a border down the Irish Sea they will support him in a heartbeat.

    Remember that they held their noses and worked with Sinn Fein for years. Do you think that they could not manage to find a way to tolerate Corbyn?
    Could the DUP ever trust Corbyn? Genuine question.
    All things are relative. I would expect that anyone is more trustable than Johnson. Like all politicians, Corbyn may be economical with the truth and spin things, but Johnson has shown himself to be utterly untrustworthy.

    If you had to choose, Corbyn might be the winner.
    I suspect some wishful thinking in there. Nevertheless, thank you.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    Cyclefree said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Apparently if Boris loses the timetable motion tomorrow he'll pull the bill and push for a general election.

    SNP was showing some leg to Boris on an election today (yesterday) and Jezza is on record as saying he'll agree to an election if Boris sends the surrender letter (which has happened) so it looks like by this time tomorrow we could be well on our way to an election for 5th December?

    Why? Surely he has the votes for his deal now? And if he goes for a GE without any extension agreed why would Labour agree to a GE?

    I guess if the government lose the timetable for this then a 31st October Brexit is gone and at that point there's no reason not to have an extension long enough to cover a general election?
  • GIN1138 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Alternative Canadian election show to CBC:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ykJtEiOT9SI

    Has there been an exit poll?
    Pretty sure there's no public exit polling in Canada.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,873
    Drutt said:

    Did anyone else sing the first four post to Shakira

    Yes.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

    A martyr election might suit him .

    One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

    The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

    Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.
    Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

    The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

    The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

    I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

    Like I said on here last night, the DUP are simple beasts. A United Ireland is the one thing they will NOT tolerate under any circumstance.

    That is why the EU and the GFA are so powerful. They allow both sides to live with the fiction that they have both won and the other side has lost/given up.
    Definitely time for a Border Poll.
    That will not solve anything. It will just fire up the hotheads on the losing side.
    Tough. It is written into both the GFA and the Irish Constitution and is long overdue. Long term it is the only rational solution anyway.
    No. Long term the solution is the same as the solution for Brexit. Let the older generation die off and allow the younger generation to move forward and unite in common endeavour with neighbouring countries.

    Hiding behind walls is the way of the past.
    You are the one wanting to hide behind walls. A united Ireland is long overdue. You and your ideas are part of the problem not the solution.
    Brexit is about building walls. That is what is so wrong about it.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    GIN1138 said:

    Apparently if Boris loses the timetable motion tomorrow he'll pull the bill and push for a general election.

    SNP was showing some leg to Boris on an election today (yesterday) and Jezza is on record as saying he'll agree to an election if Boris sends the surrender letter (which has happened) so it looks like by this time tomorrow we could be well on our way to an election for 5th December?

    Believe it when I see it
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm not sure it matters if the bill passes or not now. Well obviously does but I think either scenario can work for the Tories electorally.
    Right now they're getting De Facto confidence and supply from ex Labour MPs, the Lib Dems and the DUP all of who dislike them but find the idea of Corbyn in power even worse !

    Do not make that mistake about the DUP. They might dislike Corbyn, but if they think that Corbyn will not put a border down the Irish Sea they will support him in a heartbeat.

    Remember that they held their noses and worked with Sinn Fein for years. Do you think that they could not manage to find a way to tolerate Corbyn?
    Could the DUP ever trust Corbyn? Genuine question.
    All things are relative. I would expect that anyone is more trustable than Johnson. Like all politicians, Corbyn may be economical with the truth and spin things, but Johnson has shown himself to be utterly untrustworthy.

    If you had to choose, Corbyn might be the winner.
    I suspect some wishful thinking in there. Nevertheless, thank you.
    Thank you. I think their backs might be to the wall before they make that choice, but Johnson is beyond the pale.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,824

    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

    A martyr election might suit him .

    One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

    The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

    Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.
    Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

    The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

    The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

    I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

    Like I said on here last night, the DUP are simple beasts. A United Ireland is the one thing they will NOT tolerate under any circumstance.

    That is why the EU and the GFA are so powerful. They allow both sides to live with the fiction that they have both won and the other side has lost/given up.
    Definitely time for a Border Poll.
    That will not solve anything. It will just fire up the hotheads on the losing side.
    Tough. It is written into both the GFA and the Irish Constitution and is long overdue. Long term it is the only rational solution anyway.
    No. Long term the solution is the same as the solution for Brexit. Let the older generation die off and allow the younger generation to move forward and unite in common endeavour with neighbouring countries.

    Hiding behind walls is the way of the past.
    You are the one wanting to hide behind walls. A united Ireland is long overdue. You and your ideas are part of the problem not the solution.
    Brexit is about building walls. That is what is so wrong about it.
    And the walls surrounding the EU don’t count?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    No exit poll AFAIK.

    This is going to be a real nail-biter. Polls put the parties neck-and-neck.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

    A martyr election might suit him .

    One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

    The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

    Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.
    Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

    The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

    The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

    I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

    Like I said on here last night, the DUP are simple beasts. A United Ireland is the one thing they will NOT tolerate under any circumstance.

    That is why the EU and the GFA are so powerful. They allow both sides to live with the fiction that they have both won and the other side has lost/given up.
    Definitely time for a Border Poll.
    That will not solve anything. It will just fire up the hotheads on the losing side.
    Tough. It is written into both the GFA and the Irish Constitution and is long overdue. Long term it is the only rational solution anyway.
    No. Long term the solution is the same as the solution for Brexit. Let the older generation die off and allow the younger generation to move forward and unite in common endeavour with neighbouring countries.

    Hiding behind walls is the way of the past.
    You are the one wanting to hide behind walls. A united Ireland is long overdue. You and your ideas are part of the problem not the solution.
    Brexit is about building walls. That is what is so wrong about it.
    And the walls surrounding the EU don’t count?
    They will count when we put ourselves outside them.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,892
    Isn't this Trudeuax majority vs Trudeaux minority (With NDP) ?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    edited October 2019
    Also Nick Watt was saying Labout thinks the numbers are moving away from them on a second referendum.

    If that aveune is closed then the PLP have no other avenues to stop Brexit other than winning a general election and replacing the government?
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

    A martyr election might suit him .

    One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

    The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

    Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.
    Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

    The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

    The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

    I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

    Like I said on here last night, the DUP are simple beasts. A United Ireland is the one thing they will NOT tolerate under any circumstance.

    That is why the EU and the GFA are so powerful. They allow both sides to live with the fiction that they have both won and the other side has lost/given up.
    Definitely time for a Border Poll.
    That will not solve anything. It will just fire up the hotheads on the losing side.
    Tough. It is written into both the GFA and the Irish Constitution and is long overdue. Long term it is the only rational solution anyway.
    No. Long term the solution is the same as the solution for Brexit. Let the older generation die off and allow the younger generation to move forward and unite in common endeavour with neighbouring countries.

    Hiding behind walls is the way of the past.
    You are the one wanting to hide behind walls. A united Ireland is long overdue. You and your ideas are part of the problem not the solution.
    From an English perspective, I believe the Irish have always been a pain in the bum (the obverse is I'm sure also true). I'm sure the DUP is on top of this.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Cyclefree said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Apparently if Boris loses the timetable motion tomorrow he'll pull the bill and push for a general election.

    SNP was showing some leg to Boris on an election today (yesterday) and Jezza is on record as saying he'll agree to an election if Boris sends the surrender letter (which has happened) so it looks like by this time tomorrow we could be well on our way to an election for 5th December?

    Why? Surely he has the votes for his deal now? And if he goes for a GE without any extension agreed why would Labour agree to a GE?

    I think BJ would go for an election whenever he was allowed to.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Goodnight from the Emerald Isle :+1:
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,873
    Am I right in thinking that the only solutions which don't breach the Belfast agreement are either:

    EEA + CU (And it should be EEA - I would suggest the UK joins EFTA to give more power to that organisation); or
    EEA + FTA (very comprehensive)

    Further, that any FTA between the UK and EU could actually be written very quickly in terms of physical goods (I know people say it would take a decade or more to negotiate, but that's only because those jobs for the boys won't create themselves).

    The FTA needs to cover all physical goods, and have no tariffs applied on either side (non-physical stuff, like services, could be negotiated later) but broadly to me, that the only way to get a seamless border in NI.

    Is there any other way?
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

    A martyr election might suit him .

    One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

    The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

    Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.
    Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

    The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

    The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

    I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

    Like I said on here last night, the DUP are simple beasts. A United Ireland is the one thing they will NOT tolerate under any circumstance.

    That is why the EU and the GFA are so powerful. They allow both sides to live with the fiction that they have both won and the other side has lost/given up.
    Definitely time for a Border Poll.
    That will not solve anything. It will just fire up the hotheads on the losing side.
    Tough. It is written into both the GFA and the Irish Constitution and is long overdue. Long term it is the only rational solution anyway.
    No. Long term the solution is the same as the solution for Brexit. Let the older generation die off and allow the younger generation to move forward and unite in common endeavour with neighbouring countries.

    Hiding behind walls is the way of the past.
    You are the one wanting to hide behind walls. A united Ireland is long overdue. You and your ideas are part of the problem not the solution.
    Brexit is about building walls. That is what is so wrong about it.
    The EU is one big fortress
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2019
    So far there's been a 20% swing in the popular vote from Liberal to Conservative in Newfoundland and Labrador. But that's only with about 15% counted.

    Last time it was 65% to 10%. Currently running at 51% to 35%.
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613

    philiph said:

    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .

    A martyr election might suit him .

    One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .

    The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .

    Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.
    Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .

    The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.

    The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.

    I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !

    I'm out of date on Irish politics.

    Are the UUP still a more moderate Unionist party than the DUP?

    It all got confused for me when Paisley found he could be best buddies with McGuiness.
    The UUP is a shadow of its former self. A few Council seats and some Assembly seats, but it is definitely second fiddle to the DUP. Compared to the DUP, everyone is a moderate.
    Interesting situation the DUP are in re their MPs. They really are at a high water mark - there's only Herman's seat in South Down that could be considered a target for them. (SF's majority in F&ST is tight, but the DUP typically don't stand there and let the UUP or Independents try to get it)

    Of their own seats they are probably already in big trouble in pro remain South Belfast, and might need a strong turnout to hold Belfast North (vs SF) and Belfast East (from the Alliance). The social conservative part of their base will have just seen abortion and gay marriage made legal in NI, so the last thing they need is to dissilusion the "No Surrender" wing. Hence the rally round the fleg.
This discussion has been closed.