Wrong. The only polls putting Yes ahead in Scotland are with No Deal which the Boris Deal avoids, indeed the latest polling has only a minority of Scots opposed to the Boris Deal.
In Northern Ireland meanwhile the only polls giving a majority for a united Ireland are in the event of a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, which the Boris Deal also avoids.
I suspect you are going to be very surprised.
When reality hits NI is going to realise they are second class UK citizens so may as well join Ireland - I suspect that reality will be obvious by December 2020.
And Scotland will once again elect 50+ SNP MPs who will either have no say in things or be keeping Labour in power. If the former resentment will grow until the Tories lose seats and Labour take power with SNP support. And then a second referendum will be held
Hence I believe both NI and Scotland leaving the UK is now inevitable.
Bit keep looking at polls - I'm sure you can always find a sub-sub sample that proves your point.
No they are not, it is a compromise that suits moderates on both sides and Antrim Protestants will of course never accept being part of the Republic.
Labour will need LD support not just SNP support to form a Government and the LDs also oppose indyref2 and indeed latest Holyrood polls suggest the SNP will lose its majority even with the Greens in 2021.
Sir Edric, blessed with the virtue of expendability, is dispatched south to scout strange reports from Lake Longsoul. Accompanied by his trusty manservant Dog, and the squabbling mages Drusilla and Cecil, the knight finds himself confronting untold and ancient evil. Caught between the perilous terrors of undead hordes and the vengeful attention of a murderous elven prince, it is not only Sir Edric’s survival at stake, but that of the world itself…
It's incredibly politically correct, with a diverse cast, and some dialogue by William Shakespeare. And, quite frankly, it's a much better use of one's time than listening to most of the dross on the news.
The proposed method of the Union which would allow NI in both parts of GB and EU will end up tearing up the Union as Scotland is directly disadvantaged by such a deal, and would likely leave the UK to rejoin the EU. I also think a border down the Irish Sea makes Irish reunification more likely.
Wrong. The only polls putting Yes ahead in Scotland are with No Deal which the Boris Deal avoids, indeed the latest polling has only a minority of Scots opposed to the Boris Deal.
In Northern Ireland meanwhile the only polls giving a majority for a united Ireland are in the event of a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, which the Boris Deal also avoids.
Once the economic imbalance of NI v Scotland come into focus, I think Scotland will vote to leave. I also think that polls are snapshots of the current state of play, not necessarily immutable positions; as some politicians put it targets to beat, not reality to meet. That's what campaigns are for.
Indyref 2 will not have Cameron heading the "Stay together" campaign, and Labour will be unwilling to work with Conservatives on the issue. Johnson, Mogg and the current crop of leading Tories will not have the Cameroonian disposition to sway a certain section of swing voters.
If Scotland leaves the Union, the Northern Irish question becomes more existential; is the Union still the Union without Scotland? I think that question alone will lead to a border poll; add onto it any of the myriad externalities created by Brexit, and I think it is fair to say the Union is odds on to be 2 countries down within my lifetime.
The Tories will of course block indyref2, even if they do not yet arrest nationalists as the Spanish are in Catalonia or send in the troops and the riot police as the Chinese are in Hong Kong.
If you wish to be a traitor though by wishing the end of the Union that is up to you
Wrong. The only polls putting Yes ahead in Scotland are with No Deal which the Boris Deal avoids, indeed the latest polling has only a minority of Scots opposed to the Boris Deal.
In Northern Ireland meanwhile the only polls giving a majority for a united Ireland are in the event of a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, which the Boris Deal also avoids.
I suspect you are going to be very surprised.
When reality hits NI is going to realise they are second class UK citizens so may as well join Ireland - I suspect that reality will be obvious by December 2020.
And Scotland will once again elect 50+ SNP MPs who will either have no say in things or be keeping Labour in power. If the former resentment will grow until the Tories lose seats and Labour take power with SNP support. And then a second referendum will be held
Hence I believe both NI and Scotland leaving the UK is now inevitable.
Bit keep looking at polls - I'm sure you can always find a sub-sub sample that proves your point.
@HYUFD himself has accepted that Great Britain and Northern Ireland are diverging.
On the contrary, NI could now have a new key reason for being, Cromwell and William III excepted, in perpetuity. This could secure its future within the UK for good.
If the gov loses amendments on CU and second ref the bill will be pulled. If they win on those amendments they will face a VONC.
I speculated the labour leavers would abstain at least for now given they are possibly ending their careers to back the bill but everyone seems certain they'll back the party in a VONC.
Meaning is there any chance of the bill passing? If amended cons will drop it. If not amended the opposition have to no confidence the Gov even if they fear an election - their base will not forgive Brexit happening.
I am not at all sure a vonc would pass when that would delay brexit
The fury in the country would be uncontained and labour decimated
If the votes are there for the bill a VONC is the last roll of the dice for remainers. While the timetabling is dumb and sure to fail, I can see the appeal as we get to see if any of the amendments will fly this week.
As it is end of November looks like the earliest possible leave date? They're going to be discussing this for bloody weeks at least.
It needs to be scheduled in Parliament for twelve hours a day, six days a week until it's done. Let those who are just playing for time actually turn up and debate the Bill.
A united Ireland is long overdue. You and your ideas are part of the problem not the solution.
Richard, I don't disagree with the fundamental endpoint of a united Ireland; I suspect it's where most reasonable people sit, including Beverley. The trouble is there are a lot headbangers in the North (and some in Scotland) who will raise merry hell. The GFA was an effective way to de-escalate the conflict, park it for a generation or three, and hope that a permanent solution would become less disruptive.
It is the Brexiteers who are blowing up the status quo. Some don't seem to care that they might end up with blood on their hands. Others indulge in unicornery. Your solution, while admirably logical and moral, is not practical.
No, it’s Leo’s fault
Brexit was a fact. Leo has a choice to work in a collaborative manner - in the spirit of the GFA - or to use the leverage to gain tactical advantage
The result is one community feels wronged (either the unionists with this deal or the nationalists with a hard border).
And he has awoken demons better left sleeping
***PLEASE can everyone stop conflating Loyalists and Unionists. This is exactly what Loyalists like to do. They are evil murdering bastards and shouldn’t be given any credence. They do not represent the Unionist community ***
Yet the Unionists vote for the DUP which was (as shown in the BBC Spotlight on the Troubles secret history series) founded to represent the Loyalists viewpoint. The links between Ian Paisley and the UVF I will leave to the program.
I thought it was obvious to people that NI politics has moved to the extremes. Heck the Unionists don't really have a centralist unionist party now the UUP has gone - most centralists Unionists I know vote Alliance.
The DUP are closer than I would like to the Loyalists. I thought it was a shame that John McCallister didn’t win the UUP leadership, but now they have shifted to the right and NI21 has flopped Alliance is all that’s left
The proposed method of the Union which would allow NI in both parts of GB and EU will end up tearing up the Union as Scotland is directly disadvantaged by such a deal, and would likely leave the UK to rejoin the EU. I also think a border down the Irish Sea makes Irish reunification more likely.
Wrong. The only polls putting Yes ahead in Scotland are with No Deal which the Boris Deal avoids, indeed the latest polling has only a minority of Scots opposed to the Boris Deal.
In Northern Ireland meanwhile the only polls giving a majority for a united Ireland are in the event of a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, which the Boris Deal also avoids.
Once the economic imbalance of NI v Scotland come into focus, I think Scotland will vote to leave. I also think that polls are snapshots of the current state of play, not necessarily immutable positions; as some politicians put it targets to beat, not reality to meet. That's what campaigns are for.
Indyref 2 will not have Cameron heading the "Stay together" campaign, and Labour will be unwilling to work with Conservatives on the issue. Johnson, Mogg and the current crop of leading Tories will not have the Cameroonian disposition to sway a certain section of swing voters.
If Scotland leaves the Union, the Northern Irish question becomes more existential; is the Union still the Union without Scotland? I think that question alone will lead to a border poll; add onto it any of the myriad externalities created by Brexit, and I think it is fair to say the Union is odds on to be 2 countries down within my lifetime.
If you wish to be a traitor though by wishing the end of the Union that is up to you
I don't really understand this viewpoint. If I was asked for my view I'd say I'd rather Scotland stayed part of Britain as I think there's more that unites us than divides us.
But if a majority want to go there own way, then best of wishes. I'm not sure it's really much of my business to tell them otherwise.
Northern Ireland, I doubt beyond the atypicals that become members of political parties, there are many in England that wouldn't gratefully accept a united Ireland if it made the problem Dublin's rather than London's. But the reality is that the problems would unlikely be limited to the mainland if they started again and self determination means that the Northern Irish are welcome as part of the UK as long as the majority wish it.
As for Wales, sorry any Welshies but let's face it, there was barely a unified state called Wales before the Black Prince did his thing. I think you're stuck with us annoying English in E&W Land.
A united Ireland is long overdue. You and your ideas are part of the problem not the solution.
Richard, I don't disagree with the fundamental endpoint of a united Ireland; I suspect it's where most reasonable people sit, including Beverley. The trouble is there are a lot headbangers in the North (and some in Scotland) who will raise merry hell. The GFA was an effective way to de-escalate the conflict, park it for a generation or three, and hope that a permanent solution would become less disruptive.
It is the Brexiteers who are blowing up the status quo. Some don't seem to care that they might end up with blood on their hands. Others indulge in unicornery. Your solution, while admirably logical and moral, is not practical.
No, it’s Leo’s fault
Brexit was a fact. Leo has a choice to work in a collaborative manner - in the spirit of the GFA - or to use the leverage to gain tactical advantage
The result is one community feels wronged (either the unionists with this deal or the nationalists with a hard border).
And he has awoken demons better left sleeping
***PLEASE can everyone stop conflating Loyalists and Unionists. This is exactly what Loyalists like to do. They are evil murdering bastards and shouldn’t be given any credence. They do not represent the Unionist community ***
No. Brexit, as we are seeing and have seen for the past three years, most certainly wasn't and now isn't a fact. It is all up for negotiation. And Leo has a political mandate, as does Boris Johnson. As head of a foreign state I find it interesting that you come close to prescribe how he should behave.
The sleeping demons were awoken by the UK voting to leave the EU. Some of those voting leave were evidently too dumb to understand the implications for NI.
Neither community would have felt particularly wronged with, say, an EEA solution. Which is Brexit.
I’m not prescribing how he should have behaved. I’m saying he fucked up big time and should have pursues Enda Kenny’s strategy. That’s just political comment
Enda Kenny didn't say as much as people wish he did. In particular the increased level of smuggling he envisaged was and has proved problematic. Whether that is a good thing or not is up for debate but I can see why it would have done.
Better than upsetting the balance of the Belfast Agreement
The proposed method of the Union which would allow NI in both parts of GB and EU will end up tearing up the Union as Scotland is directly disadvantaged by such a deal, and would likely leave the UK to rejoin the EU. I also think a border down the Irish Sea makes Irish reunification more likely.
Wrong. The only polls putting Yes ahead in Scotland are with No Deal which the Boris Deal avoids, indeed the latest polling has only a minority of Scots opposed to the Boris Deal.
In Northern Ireland meanwhile the only polls giving a majority for a united Ireland are in the event of a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, which the Boris Deal also avoids.
Once the economic imbalance of NI v Scotland come into focus, I think Scotland will vote to leave. I also think that polls are snapshots of the current state of play, not necessarily immutable positions; as some politicians put it targets to beat, not reality to meet. That's what campaigns are for.
Indyref 2 will not have Cameron heading the "Stay together" campaign, and Labour will be unwilling to work with Conservatives on the issue. Johnson, Mogg and the current crop of leading Tories will not have the Cameroonian disposition to sway a certain section of swing voters.
If Scotland leaves the Union, the Northern Irish question becomes more existential; is the Union still the Union without Scotland? I think that question alone will lead to a border poll; add onto it any of the myriad externalities created by Brexit, and I think it is fair to say the Union is odds on to be 2 countries down within my lifetime.
The Tories will of course block indyref2, even if they do not yet arrest nationalists as the Spanish are in Catalonia or send in the troops and the riot police as the Chinese are in Hong Kong.
If you wish to be a traitor though by wishing the end of the Union that is up to you
It isn't treason to wish the end of the Union, or to think that comparisons to dictatorships are absurd.
Is it treason to support Brexit and to wish the end of that Union?
A united Ireland is long overdue. You and your ideas are part of the problem not the solution.
Richard, I don't disagree with the fundamental endpoint of a united Ireland; I suspect it's where most reasonable people sit, including Beverley. The trouble is there are a lot headbangers in the North (and some in Scotland) who will raise merry hell. The GFA was an effective way to de-escalate the conflict, park it for a generation or three, and hope that a permanent solution would become less disruptive.
It is the Brexiteers who are blowing up the status quo. Some don't seem to care that they might end up with blood on their hands. Others indulge in unicornery. Your solution, while admirably logical and moral, is not practical.
No, it’s Leo’s fault
Brexit was a fact. Leo has a choice to work in a collaborative manner - in the spirit of the GFA - or to use the leverage to gain tactical advantage
The result is one community feels wronged (either the unionists with this deal or the nationalists with a hard border).
And he has awoken demons better left sleeping
***PLEASE can everyone stop conflating Loyalists and Unionists. This is exactly what Loyalists like to do. They are evil murdering bastards and shouldn’t be given any credence. They do not represent the Unionist community ***
No. Brexit, as we are seeing and have seen for the past three years, most certainly wasn't and now isn't a fact. It is all up for negotiation. And Leo has a political mandate, as does Boris Johnson. As head of a foreign state I find it interesting that you come close to prescribe how he should behave.
The sleeping demons were awoken by the UK voting to leave the EU. Some of those voting leave were evidently too dumb to understand the implications for NI.
Neither community would have felt particularly wronged with, say, an EEA solution. Which is Brexit.
I’m not prescribing how he should have behaved. I’m saying he fucked up big time and should have pursues Enda Kenny’s strategy. That’s just political comment
Enda Kenny didn't say as much as people wish he did. In particular the increased level of smuggling he envisaged was and has proved problematic. Whether that is a good thing or not is up for debate but I can see why it would have done.
Better than upsetting the balance of the Belfast Agreement
Absolutely. I don't understand why anyone would prefer upsetting the Belfast Agreement rather than the risk of a bit of smuggling [which already occurs] that can be tackled by the legal system.
Mr. Moonshine, I find your lack of taste disturbing.
Just so we're clear, I meant The Last Jedi and not Solo.
I re-watched all 10 of them earlier this year (not in one go obvs) and when put in that context without all the nostalgia and hype, TLJ is a superior albeit imperfect entry
I have seen The Last Jedi. Whilst not quite the abomination others have said it remains a very poor film. The tone is all over the place (dreadfully serious war situation/slapstick idiocy hopelessly intermingled early on, for example). Not to mention the jarring dialogue in the throne room scene for the 'twist'.
And that's before we get to the insanity of a trilogy that's not even planned as a trilogy.
The proposed method of the Union which would allow NI in both parts of GB and EU will end up tearing up the Union as Scotland is directly disadvantaged by such a deal, and would likely leave the UK to rejoin the EU. I also think a border down the Irish Sea makes Irish reunification more likely.
Wrong. The only polls putting Yes ahead in Scotland are with No Deal which the Boris Deal avoids, indeed the latest polling has only a minority of Scots opposed to the Boris Deal.
In Northern Ireland meanwhile the only polls giving a majority for a united Ireland are in the event of a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, which the Boris Deal also avoids.
Once the economic imbalance of NI v Scotland come into focus, I think Scotland will vote to leave. I also think that polls are snapshots of the current state of play, not necessarily immutable positions; as some politicians put it targets to beat, not reality to meet. That's what campaigns are for.
Indyref 2 will not have Cameron heading the "Stay together" campaign, and Labour will be unwilling to work with Conservatives on the issue. Johnson, Mogg and the current crop of leading Tories will not have the Cameroonian disposition to sway a certain section of swing voters.
If Scotland leaves the Union, the Northern Irish question becomes more existential; is the Union still the Union without Scotland? I think that question alone will lead to a border poll; add onto it any of the myriad externalities created by Brexit, and I think it is fair to say the Union is odds on to be 2 countries down within my lifetime.
The Tories will of course block indyref2, even if they do not yet arrest nationalists as the Spanish are in Catalonia or send in the troops and the riot police as the Chinese are in Hong Kong.
If you wish to be a traitor though by wishing the end of the Union that is up to you
It’s not treacherous to wish the end of the Union. Things have moved on.
And I’m disturbed that you think “yet” is relevant in your second last paragraph
The key point now is how this sets up the aftermath. Boris and the Conservatives own this outright. They have forced this through. If all is well they will benefit, but if the land of Brexit milk and honey fails to materialise they’ll have problems.
I doubt it. There's no accountability in this country. Particularly for posh boys.
Is there anything about Brexit said by leavers that’s turned out to be true?
We hold all the cards Exact same benefits I will not ask for an extension There will be no EU elections There will be no running commentary It will be the row of the summer I will confide entirely in paragraph 5b £350m a week for the NHS The prorogation is for the Queen’s Speech We need a 5 week prorogation We do not have the power to revoke The power to trigger Article 50 lies with the Executive There will be no customs border in the Irish Sea
Is there anything about Brexit said by leavers that’s turned out to be true?
We hold all the cards Exact same benefits I will not ask for an extension There will be no EU elections There will be no running commentary It will be the row of the summer I will confide entirely in paragraph 5b £350m a week for the NHS The prorogation is for the Queen’s Speech We need a 5 week prorogation We do not have the power to revoke The power to trigger Article 50 lies with the Executive There will be no customs border in the Irish Sea
Others?
I believe the £350m has gone to the NHS but was done so badly no-one has noticed
Is there anything about Brexit said by leavers that’s turned out to be true?
We hold all the cards Exact same benefits I will not ask for an extension There will be no EU elections There will be no running commentary It will be the row of the summer I will confide entirely in paragraph 5b £350m a week for the NHS The prorogation is for the Queen’s Speech We need a 5 week prorogation We do not have the power to revoke The power to trigger Article 50 lies with the Executive There will be no customs border in the Irish Sea
Others?
I believe the £350m has gone to the NHS but was done so badly no-one has noticed
Comments
Labour will need LD support not just SNP support to form a Government and the LDs also oppose indyref2 and indeed latest Holyrood polls suggest the SNP will lose its majority even with the Greens in 2021.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B07YN4DBB9/
https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/961013
Sir Edric, blessed with the virtue of expendability, is dispatched south to scout strange reports from Lake Longsoul. Accompanied by his trusty manservant Dog, and the squabbling mages Drusilla and Cecil, the knight finds himself confronting untold and ancient evil. Caught between the perilous terrors of undead hordes and the vengeful attention of a murderous elven prince, it is not only Sir Edric’s survival at stake, but that of the world itself…
It's incredibly politically correct, with a diverse cast, and some dialogue by William Shakespeare. And, quite frankly, it's a much better use of one's time than listening to most of the dross on the news.
If you wish to be a traitor though by wishing the end of the Union that is up to you
But if a majority want to go there own way, then best of wishes. I'm not sure it's really much of my business to tell them otherwise.
Northern Ireland, I doubt beyond the atypicals that become members of political parties, there are many in England that wouldn't gratefully accept a united Ireland if it made the problem Dublin's rather than London's. But the reality is that the problems would unlikely be limited to the mainland if they started again and self determination means that the Northern Irish are welcome as part of the UK as long as the majority wish it.
As for Wales, sorry any Welshies but let's face it, there was barely a unified state called Wales before the Black Prince did his thing. I think you're stuck with us annoying English in E&W Land.
Is it treason to support Brexit and to wish the end of that Union?
I re-watched all 10 of them earlier this year (not in one go obvs) and when put in that context without all the nostalgia and hype, TLJ is a superior albeit imperfect entry
I have seen The Last Jedi. Whilst not quite the abomination others have said it remains a very poor film. The tone is all over the place (dreadfully serious war situation/slapstick idiocy hopelessly intermingled early on, for example). Not to mention the jarring dialogue in the throne room scene for the 'twist'.
And that's before we get to the insanity of a trilogy that's not even planned as a trilogy.
And I’m disturbed that you think “yet” is relevant in your second last paragraph
We hold all the cards
Exact same benefits
I will not ask for an extension
There will be no EU elections
There will be no running commentary
It will be the row of the summer
I will confide entirely in paragraph 5b
£350m a week for the NHS
The prorogation is for the Queen’s Speech
We need a 5 week prorogation
We do not have the power to revoke
The power to trigger Article 50 lies with the Executive
There will be no customs border in the Irish Sea
Others?
Why? How?