Leavers really think any of this is going to change anyones minds? Views are cemented. We are split pretty much 50/50.
Remainers obstructing isnt going to lose any votes. If anything they’d lose votes if they didn’t.
Just like Boris being Boris is not going to lose any votes.
Dubious, won’t change people’s minds on the core question of “Brexit right or wrong”. Might change people’s minds in relation to the political parties. For example what does a person think who was
1) a eurosceptic remainer 2) thinks we should probably leave because of the referendum result 3) but not without a deal, certainly not a crash out one 4) doesn’t want another referendum 5) but would probably vote remain if we did
Well then they’re already supporting the deal?
Could argue this particular deal increases the chance of crashout nodeal - just in 14 months time. Especially as with the Irish issue “resolved” the EU will have less of a problem with it (the big contradiction in their position was always that by playing hardball on the Irish border they were threatening a hard Irish border now to avoid the possibility of one in 2 years time).
But anyway, this is irrelevant as I was talking about how this plays out for the parties in a subsequent election.
Far from it, the Boris Deal avoids a hard border in Ireland with the Republic of Ireland and the Catholic backlash and keeps Northern Ireland in the UK customs area which is why even former UUP Leader Lord Trimble backs it
Canadian politics has always been very interesting, they've had a much longer history of multi party politics under FPTP. Looks this time like the Liberals benefited from their status as Not The Tories, which has cost the NDP from breaking through. If anything the results could be seen as mildly encouraging for Labour and worrying for the LIB dems. Being Not The Tories will always be a very powerful weapon.
The opposite, the Liberals are the LDs sister party, the NDP are Labour's sister party.
The Bloc Quebecois also overtook the NDP for third in terms of seats which may be good for the SNP as the Bloc are their sister party.
The UK Tories will be disappointed their sister party lost but encouraged it did at least win the popular vote
The key point now is how this sets up the aftermath. Boris and the Conservatives own this outright. They have forced this through. If all is well they will benefit, but if the land of Brexit milk and honey fails to materialise they’ll have problems.
Which is why BoZo still needs an election before any of the ordure meets the spinny thing...
I expect he will win, but the Tories will probably spend the next five years regretting it in a rerun of 92-97 or 07-10.
Hardly, delivering Brexit and beating Corbyn and a 4th Tory term in office is key but you can only stretch the elastic so far
You have promised the world. Only fair you deliver it.
The consensus view seems to be that there probably is a majority for Johnson's deal but not by 31st October.
Woe betide those MPs that the public perceive are delaying Brexit just to get it past the 31st October so they can go nur-nur na nur-nur to the Prime Minister.....
I’m not sure opposition MPs realise how nakedly transparent that play is to the general public.
They won’t profit by it. It just looks petulant at the country’s expense.
So you’ve read and analysed the entire bill and think it should be passed with minimal scrutiny ? One of the blank cheque Boris brigade.
I speed read the main Bill last night in about 20 minutes. Easily done. It’s 40 pages of clauses with about 70 of schedules and annexes.
The rest is hokum. The Deal has been on the table for almost a year. MPs have debated the WA exhaustively...
What aspects of this settlement for NI have been debated for an entire year ?
What about the cliff edge Dec 2020 for a FTA agreement has been debated for an entire year ?
Far from it, the Boris Deal avoids a hard border in Ireland with the Republic of Ireland and the Catholic backlash and keeps Northern Ireland in the UK customs area which is why even former UUP Leader Lord Trimble backs it
Lord Trimble takes the Conservative whip. BTW how does NI benefit from remaining in the UK customs area if they now have all the transaction costs that customs unions are designed to avoid?
Are the ERG really going to hold their noses and vote for this?
The lesson Boris has correctly learned from Trump is that if you can create enough polarization, the people on your side will support whatever you tell them to, as long as it annoys the other side.
Are the ERG really going to hold their noses and vote for this?
The lesson Boris has correctly learned from Trump is that if you can create enough polarization, the people on your side will support whatever you tell them to, as long as it annoys the other side.
Divide and conquer. It’s the oldest trick in the book. Terrible for the country. But Boris and Trump don’t care about anyone else.
Are the ERG really going to hold their noses and vote for this?
So we’re going from frictionless trade across the whole of Europe to not even frictionless trade within our own country? Heh.
Very amusing comment this morning from Pascal Lamy on R4: usually trade talks are about making trade between two territories more easy; these talks will be different as they will be about making trade more difficult.
Far from it, the Boris Deal avoids a hard border in Ireland with the Republic of Ireland and the Catholic backlash and keeps Northern Ireland in the UK customs area which is why even former UUP Leader Lord Trimble backs it
Lord Trimble takes the Conservative whip. BTW how does NI benefit from remaining in the UK customs area if they now have all the transaction costs that customs unions are designed to avoid?
Lord Trimble was the architect of the Good Friday Agreement and knows how damaging a return to terrorism with a hard border in Ireland would be, the IRA would be back bombing without question
The consensus view seems to be that there probably is a majority for Johnson's deal but not by 31st October.
Woe betide those MPs that the public perceive are delaying Brexit just to get it past the 31st October so they can go nur-nur na nur-nur to the Prime Minister.....
I’m not sure opposition MPs realise how nakedly transparent that play is to the general public.
They won’t profit by it. It just looks petulant at the country’s expense.
So you’ve read and analysed the entire bill and think it should be passed with minimal scrutiny ? One of the blank cheque Boris brigade.
I speed read the main Bill last night in about 20 minutes. Easily done. It’s 40 pages of clauses with about 70 of schedules and annexes.
The rest is hokum. The Deal has been on the table for almost a year. MPs have debated the WA exhaustively.
The delaying tactics are very obvious, and rather desperate.
I don't disagree with you on (some of) the tactics. However it's perfectly reasonable to give it decent scrutiny. I've long thought a border in the Irish sea was a possible solution but I'm not overly comfortable with how this has been foisted upon Northern Ireland.
The Ashcroft poll yesterday was also very striking. The fact that people seem no more concerned with keeping Scotland in the union rather than Northern Ireland shocked me and should be a serious worry to scottish unionists.
The key point now is how this sets up the aftermath. Boris and the Conservatives own this outright. They have forced this through. If all is well they will benefit, but if the land of Brexit milk and honey fails to materialise they’ll have problems.
Which is why BoZo still needs an election before any of the ordure meets the spinny thing...
I expect he will win, but the Tories will probably spend the next five years regretting it in a rerun of 92-97 or 07-10.
Hardly, delivering Brexit and beating Corbyn and a 4th Tory term in office is key but you can only stretch the elastic so far
Seeing off Corbyn and his anti-semitic clown troupe is the prize - for the betterment of the whole UK.
The consensus view seems to be that there probably is a majority for Johnson's deal but not by 31st October.
Woe betide those MPs that the public perceive are delaying Brexit just to get it past the 31st October so they can go nur-nur na nur-nur to the Prime Minister.....
I’m not sure opposition MPs realise how nakedly transparent that play is to the general public.
They won’t profit by it. It just looks petulant at the country’s expense.
So you’ve read and analysed the entire bill and think it should be passed with minimal scrutiny ? One of the blank cheque Boris brigade.
I speed read the main Bill last night in about 20 minutes. Easily done. It’s 40 pages of clauses with about 70 of schedules and annexes.
The rest is hokum. The Deal has been on the table for almost a year. MPs have debated the WA exhaustively.
The delaying tactics are very obvious, and rather desperate.
I don't disagree with you on (some of) the tactics. However it's perfectly reasonable to give it decent scrutiny. I've long thought a border in the Irish sea was a possible solution but I'm not overly comfortable with how this has been foisted upon Northern Ireland.
The Ashcroft poll yesterday was also very striking. The fact that people seem no more concerned with keeping Scotland in the union rather than Northern Ireland shocked me and should be a serious worry to scottish unionists.
Voters as a whole preferred keeping Scotland and Northern Ireland in the Union over Brecit but Leavers preferred Brecit to keeping them in the Union.
However it is a false choice for as long as No Deal is avoided the Union likely stays intact and the Tories will of course block indyref2 at least until the 2021 Holyrood elections anyway
The key point now is how this sets up the aftermath. Boris and the Conservatives own this outright. They have forced this through. If all is well they will benefit, but if the land of Brexit milk and honey fails to materialise they’ll have problems.
Which is why BoZo still needs an election before any of the ordure meets the spinny thing...
I expect he will win, but the Tories will probably spend the next five years regretting it in a rerun of 92-97 or 07-10.
Hardly, delivering Brexit and beating Corbyn and a 4th Tory term in office is key but you can only stretch the elastic so far
You have promised the world. Only fair you deliver it.
To be fair, I don’t think HYUFD has. The one thing he has been fairly consistent on is that the Conservatives must deliver Brexit (because referendum) and think they will lose any post Brexit/Corbyn election.
Canadian politics has always been very interesting, they've had a much longer history of multi party politics under FPTP. Looks this time like the Liberals benefited from their status as Not The Tories, which has cost the NDP from breaking through. If anything the results could be seen as mildly encouraging for Labour and worrying for the LIB dems. Being Not The Tories will always be a very powerful weapon.
The opposite, the Liberals are the LDs sister party, the NDP are Labour's sister party.
The Bloc Quebecois also overtook the NDP for third in terms of seats which may be good for the SNP as the Bloc are their sister party.
The UK Tories will be disappointed their sister party lost but encouraged it did at least win the popular vote
Yes in policy terms, but in electoral terms no, the Liberals are the historic "centre/centre left party". The NDP the traditional "third party". Other than 2011 where the NDP actually overtook the Liberals
Far from it, the Boris Deal avoids a hard border in Ireland with the Republic of Ireland and the Catholic backlash and keeps Northern Ireland in the UK customs area which is why even former UUP Leader Lord Trimble backs it
Whereas it more closely aligns north and south Ireland and distances both from Great Britain. As you yourself acknowledged in your post yesterday.
The lesson Boris has correctly learned from Trump is that if you can create enough polarization, the people on your side will support whatever you tell them to, as long as it annoys the other side.
Except they will be voting against people on their own side, to annoy people on their own side...
The consensus view seems to be that there probably is a majority for Johnson's deal but not by 31st October.
Woe betide those MPs that the public perceive are delaying Brexit just to get it past the 31st October so they can go nur-nur na nur-nur to the Prime Minister.....
I’m not sure opposition MPs realise how nakedly transparent that play is to the general public.
They won’t profit by it. It just looks petulant at the country’s expense.
So you’ve read and analysed the entire bill and think it should be passed with minimal scrutiny ? One of the blank cheque Boris brigade.
I speed read the main Bill last night in about 20 minutes. Easily done. It’s 40 pages of clauses with about 70 of schedules and annexes.
The rest is hokum. The Deal has been on the table for almost a year. MPs have debated the WA exhaustively.
The delaying tactics are very obvious, and rather desperate.
I don't disagree with you on (some of) the tactics. However it's perfectly reasonable to give it decent scrutiny. I've long thought a border in the Irish sea was a possible solution but I'm not overly comfortable with how this has been foisted upon Northern Ireland.
The Ashcroft poll yesterday was also very striking. The fact that people seem no more concerned with keeping Scotland in the union rather than Northern Ireland shocked me and should be a serious worry to scottish unionists.
Voters as a whole preferred keeping Scotland and Northern Ireland in the Union over Brecit but Leavers preferred Brecit to keeping them in the Union.
However it is a false choice for as long as No Deal is avoided the Union likely stays intact and the Tories will of course block indyref2 at least until the 2021 Holyrood elections anyway
Interesting that you substitute your judgment for that of the electorate when it suits you.
The consensus view seems to be that there probably is a majority for Johnson's deal but not by 31st October.
Woe betide those MPs that the public perceive are delaying Brexit just to get it past the 31st October so they can go nur-nur na nur-nur to the Prime Minister.....
I’m not sure opposition MPs realise how nakedly transparent that play is to the general public.
They won’t profit by it. It just looks petulant at the country’s expense.
So you’ve read and analysed the entire bill and think it should be passed with minimal scrutiny ? One of the blank cheque Boris brigade.
I speed read the main Bill last night in about 20 minutes. Easily done. It’s 40 pages of clauses with about 70 of schedules and annexes.
The rest is hokum. The Deal has been on the table for almost a year. MPs have debated the WA exhaustively.
The delaying tactics are very obvious, and rather desperate.
So how many items did you pick out of it that MPs (of various shades) will dislike or will it just sail through?
I ask as my quick scan through picked up a lot of items Parliament is going to hate and fight over.
And just as an example, the need for paperwork for all exports from NI to GB really wasn't made clear until it was written down. Likewise the checks on live animal exports from NI to Ireland,
Not much. Most of it is dull technocratic stuff that translates the WA into law by modifying the EU withdrawal act (2018) and carrying over EU law and EEA EFTA arrangements through the implementation period. NI may be a sticking point for some, but that’s fundamental to the whole Deal and already priced in.
Personally, I think the greatest interest will come in Clause 31 (pages 33 and 34) that relate to Parliamentary oversight of negotiation of the full FTA. I think MPs won’t want to be fully bound by the political declaration of 17th October by law and nor do I think they’ll be happy with the Government keeping fairly shtum about it until a maximum of 30 Commons sitting days from the end of the implementation period.
The consensus view seems to be that there probably is a majority for Johnson's deal but not by 31st October.
Woe betide those MPs that the public perceive are delaying Brexit just to get it past the 31st October so they can go nur-nur na nur-nur to the Prime Minister.....
I’m not sure opposition MPs realise how nakedly transparent that play is to the general public.
They won’t profit by it. It just looks petulant at the country’s expense.
So you’ve read and analysed the entire bill and think it should be passed with minimal scrutiny ? One of the blank cheque Boris brigade.
I speed read the main Bill last night in about 20 minutes. Easily done. It’s 40 pages of clauses with about 70 of schedules and annexes.
The rest is hokum. The Deal has been on the table for almost a year. MPs have debated the WA exhaustively.
The delaying tactics are very obvious, and rather desperate.
I don't disagree with you on (some of) the tactics. However it's perfectly reasonable to give it decent scrutiny. I've long thought a border in the Irish sea was a possible solution but I'm not overly comfortable with how this has been foisted upon Northern Ireland.
The Ashcroft poll yesterday was also very striking. The fact that people seem no more concerned with keeping Scotland in the union rather than Northern Ireland shocked me and should be a serious worry to scottish unionists.
Voters as a whole preferred keeping Scotland and Northern Ireland in the Union over Brecit but Leavers preferred Brecit to keeping them in the Union.
However it is a false choice for as long as No Deal is avoided the Union likely stays intact and the Tories will of course block indyref2 at least until the 2021 Holyrood elections anyway
The proposed method of the Union which would allow NI in both parts of GB and EU will end up tearing up the Union as Scotland is directly disadvantaged by such a deal, and would likely leave the UK to rejoin the EU. I also think a border down the Irish Sea makes Irish reunification more likely.
The key point now is how this sets up the aftermath. Boris and the Conservatives own this outright. They have forced this through. If all is well they will benefit, but if the land of Brexit milk and honey fails to materialise they’ll have problems.
Which is why BoZo still needs an election before any of the ordure meets the spinny thing...
I expect he will win, but the Tories will probably spend the next five years regretting it in a rerun of 92-97 or 07-10.
Hardly, delivering Brexit and beating Corbyn and a 4th Tory term in office is key but you can only stretch the elastic so far
You have promised the world. Only fair you deliver it.
To be fair, I don’t think HYUFD has. The one thing he has been fairly consistent on is that the Conservatives must deliver Brexit (because referendum) and think they will lose any post Brexit/Corbyn election.
They are going, amongst other things, invest £350M a week into the NHS, none of us will be a penny worse off with this deal and they will make the U.K. the best place to live on the planet.
The key point now is how this sets up the aftermath. Boris and the Conservatives own this outright. They have forced this through. If all is well they will benefit, but if the land of Brexit milk and honey fails to materialise they’ll have problems.
Which is why BoZo still needs an election before any of the ordure meets the spinny thing...
I expect he will win, but the Tories will probably spend the next five years regretting it in a rerun of 92-97 or 07-10.
Hardly, delivering Brexit and beating Corbyn and a 4th Tory term in office is key but you can only stretch the elastic so far
You have promised the world. Only fair you deliver it.
To be fair, I don’t think HYUFD has. The one thing he has been fairly consistent on is that the Conservatives must deliver Brexit (because referendum) and think they will lose any post Brexit/Corbyn election.
They are going, amongst other things, invest £350M a week into the NHS, none of us will be a penny worse off with this deal and they will make the U.K. the best place to live on the planet.
The UK is already the best place to live on the planet. And let's do the sums which fall out of a Corbyn manifesto, shall we?
Presumably something requiring a request for an extension to transition period if trade deal not concluded by Dec 2020.
As far as I can tell all this deal really does is reset time to Jan 2018, just with no MEPs/representation and with potential no deal switching the border issue in NI from the Irish mainland to the Irish Sea. Oh, and no UK threat to refuse to pay the exit bill - also settled.
Oh, and the “People’s vote” campaign (to rejoin) now legitimate in the eyes of leavers
The key point now is how this sets up the aftermath. Boris and the Conservatives own this outright. They have forced this through. If all is well they will benefit, but if the land of Brexit milk and honey fails to materialise they’ll have problems.
Which is why BoZo still needs an election before any of the ordure meets the spinny thing...
I expect he will win, but the Tories will probably spend the next five years regretting it in a rerun of 92-97 or 07-10.
Hardly, delivering Brexit and beating Corbyn and a 4th Tory term in office is key but you can only stretch the elastic so far
You have promised the world. Only fair you deliver it.
To be fair, I don’t think HYUFD has. The one thing he has been fairly consistent on is that the Conservatives must deliver Brexit (because referendum) and think they will lose any post Brexit/Corbyn election.
They are going, amongst other things, invest £350M a week into the NHS, none of us will be a penny worse off with this deal and they will make the U.K. the best place to live on the planet.
The UK is already the best place to live on the planet.
Not according to Boris. He is going to create paradise.
Corbyn is irrelevant. Boris is in power. It is getting time for us to cash in all the promises he and the Tories have made.
Are the ERG really going to hold their noses and vote for this?
The lesson Boris has correctly learned from Trump is that if you can create enough polarization, the people on your side will support whatever you tell them to, as long as it annoys the other side.
That is the modus operandi of Labour for generations. The most tribalist party by far that has an MP who couldn't be friends with a Tory.
Leavers really think any of this is going to change anyones minds? Views are cemented. We are split pretty much 50/50.
Remainers obstructing isnt going to lose any votes. If anything they’d lose votes if they didn’t.
Just like Boris being Boris is not going to lose any votes.
Dubious, won’t change people’s minds on the core question of “Brexit right or wrong”. Might change people’s minds in relation to the political parties. For example what does a person think who was
1) a eurosceptic remainer 2) thinks we should probably leave because of the referendum result 3) but not without a deal, certainly not a crash out one 4) doesn’t want another referendum 5) but would probably vote remain if we did
Speaking for myself as I think I meet all your criteria:
I think the Liberal Democrats will have my vote at the next election.
The key point now is how this sets up the aftermath. Boris and the Conservatives own this outright. They have forced this through. If all is well they will benefit, but if the land of Brexit milk and honey fails to materialise they’ll have problems.
Which is why BoZo still needs an election before any of the ordure meets the spinny thing...
I expect he will win, but the Tories will probably spend the next five years regretting it in a rerun of 92-97 or 07-10.
Hardly, delivering Brexit and beating Corbyn and a 4th Tory term in office is key but you can only stretch the elastic so far
You have promised the world. Only fair you deliver it.
To be fair, I don’t think HYUFD has. The one thing he has been fairly consistent on is that the Conservatives must deliver Brexit (because referendum) and think they will lose any post Brexit/Corbyn election.
They are going, amongst other things, invest £350M a week into the NHS, none of us will be a penny worse off with this deal and they will make the U.K. the best place to live on the planet.
The UK is already the best place to live on the planet.
Not according to Boris. He is going to create paradise.
Corbyn is irrelevant. Boris is in power. It is getting time for us to cash in all the promises he and the Tories have made.
Best place on the planet doesn't have to be paradise. Yet.
And Corbyn is wholly central to the whole debate. We live in a parliamentary democracy (Leavers pls note). If one side is not in power the/another is. So scrutiny of one side cannot take place without the context and equal scrutiny of the alternative.
A united Ireland is long overdue. You and your ideas are part of the problem not the solution.
Richard, I don't disagree with the fundamental endpoint of a united Ireland; I suspect it's where most reasonable people sit, including Beverley. The trouble is there are a lot headbangers in the North (and some in Scotland) who will raise merry hell. The GFA was an effective way to de-escalate the conflict, park it for a generation or three, and hope that a permanent solution would become less disruptive.
It is the Brexiteers who are blowing up the status quo. Some don't seem to care that they might end up with blood on their hands. Others indulge in unicornery. Your solution, while admirably logical and moral, is not practical.
No, it’s Leo’s fault
Brexit was a fact. Leo has a choice to work in a collaborative manner - in the spirit of the GFA - or to use the leverage to gain tactical advantage
The result is one community feels wronged (either the unionists with this deal or the nationalists with a hard border).
And he has awoken demons better left sleeping
***PLEASE can everyone stop conflating Loyalists and Unionists. This is exactly what Loyalists like to do. They are evil murdering bastards and shouldn’t be given any credence. They do not represent the Unionist community ***
Apparently the Tory rebels in discussion with 10 Downing Street over more parliamentary oversight during trade negotiations.
I really do think all of this is irrelevant, if the Tories win a decent majority they’ll have enough lobby fodder to get anything through .
Putting that aside I do sense some Remainers who applauded the 21 rebels for trying to stop no deal are now moving the goalposts . Judging by the comments across social media .
I have no problem with those rebels supporting the deal , they said they were against no deal.
My biggest fear was no deal , I do feel that’s off the table now regardless of Goves protestations.
The key point now is how this sets up the aftermath. Boris and the Conservatives own this outright. They have forced this through. If all is well they will benefit, but if the land of Brexit milk and honey fails to materialise they’ll have problems.
Which is why BoZo still needs an election before any of the ordure meets the spinny thing...
I expect he will win, but the Tories will probably spend the next five years regretting it in a rerun of 92-97 or 07-10.
Hardly, delivering Brexit and beating Corbyn and a 4th Tory term in office is key but you can only stretch the elastic so far
You have promised the world. Only fair you deliver it.
If the gov loses amendments on CU and second ref the bill will be pulled. If they win on those amendments they will face a VONC.
I speculated the labour leavers would abstain at least for now given they are possibly ending their careers to back the bill but everyone seems certain they'll back the party in a VONC.
Meaning is there any chance of the bill passing? If amended cons will drop it. If not amended the opposition have to no confidence the Gov even if they fear an election - their base will not forgive Brexit happening.
Presumably something requiring a request for an extension to transition period if trade deal not concluded by Dec 2020.
As far as I can tell all this deal really does is reset time to Jan 2018, just with no MEPs/representation and with potential no deal switching the border issue in NI from the Irish mainland to the Irish Sea. Oh, and no UK threat to refuse to pay the exit bill - also settled.
Oh, and the “People’s vote” campaign (to rejoin) now legitimate in the eyes of leavers
You can see why the EU like it!
I hadn't thought about that last point... no more cries of "implement the first ref before you have another one!"
The consensus view seems to be that there probably is a majority for Johnson's deal but not by 31st October.
Woe betide those MPs that the public perceive are delaying Brexit just to get it past the 31st October so they can go nur-nur na nur-nur to the Prime Minister.....
I’m not sure opposition MPs realise how nakedly transparent that play is to the general public.
They won’t profit by it. It just looks petulant at the country’s expense.
So you’ve read and analysed the entire bill and think it should be passed with minimal scrutiny ? One of the blank cheque Boris brigade.
I speed read the main Bill last night in about 20 minutes. Easily done. It’s 40 pages of clauses with about 70 of schedules and annexes.
The rest is hokum. The Deal has been on the table for almost a year. MPs have debated the WA exhaustively.
The delaying tactics are very obvious, and rather desperate.
I don't disagree with you on (some of) the tactics. However it's perfectly reasonable to give it decent scrutiny. I've long thought a border in the Irish sea was a possible solution but I'm not overly comfortable with how this has been foisted upon Northern Ireland.
The Ashcroft poll yesterday was also very striking. The fact that people seem no more concerned with keeping Scotland in the union rather than Northern Ireland shocked me and should be a serious worry to scottish unionists.
I think a few days is fine.
If this Bill is substantially amended (except for arrangements in the implementation period) the whole Deal collapses.
The consensus view seems to be that there probably is a majority for Johnson's deal but not by 31st October.
Woe betide those MPs that the public perceive are delaying Brexit just to get it past the 31st October so they can go nur-nur na nur-nur to the Prime Minister.....
I’m not sure opposition MPs realise how nakedly transparent that play is to the general public.
They won’t profit by it. It just looks petulant at the country’s expense.
So you’ve read and analysed the entire bill and think it should be passed with minimal scrutiny ? One of the blank cheque Boris brigade.
I speed read the main Bill last night in about 20 minutes. Easily done. It’s 40 pages of clauses with about 70 of schedules and annexes.
The rest is hokum. The Deal has been on the table for almost a year. MPs have debated the WA exhaustively.
The delaying tactics are very obvious, and rather desperate.
So how many items did you pick out of it that MPs (of various shades) will dislike or will it just sail through?
I ask as my quick scan through picked up a lot of items Parliament is going to hate and fight over.
And just as an example, the need for paperwork for all exports from NI to GB really wasn't made clear until it was written down. Likewise the checks on live animal exports from NI to Ireland,
Not much. Most of it is dull technocratic stuff that translates the WA into law by modifying the EU withdrawal act (2018) and carrying over EU law and EEA EFTA arrangements through the implementation period. NI may be a sticking point for some, but that’s fundamental to the whole Deal and already priced in.
Personally, I think the greatest interest will come in Clause 31 (pages 33 and 34) that relate to Parliamentary oversight of negotiation of the full FTA. I think MPs won’t want to be fully bound by the political declaration of 17th October by law and nor do I think they’ll be happy with the Government keeping fairly shtum about it until a maximum of 30 Commons sitting days from the end of the implementation period.
They’ll want oversight and input throughout.
Agreed, if I was an MP just about willing to accept the deal but with zero trust in the PM then ensuring parliamentary involvement in the FTA is the biggest concession I could see passing both the commons and the govt.
I dont think the majority is there for a customs union and it is messy for a legislature to significantly change a treaty. 2nd ref could be closer but the govt wouldnt go ahead with it.
The key point now is how this sets up the aftermath. Boris and the Conservatives own this outright. They have forced this through. If all is well they will benefit, but if the land of Brexit milk and honey fails to materialise they’ll have problems.
Which is why BoZo still needs an election before any of the ordure meets the spinny thing...
I expect he will win, but the Tories will probably spend the next five years regretting it in a rerun of 92-97 or 07-10.
Hardly, delivering Brexit and beating Corbyn and a 4th Tory term in office is key but you can only stretch the elastic so far
You have promised the world. Only fair you deliver it.
To be fair, I don’t think HYUFD has. The one thing he has been fairly consistent on is that the Conservatives must deliver Brexit (because referendum) and think they will lose any post Brexit/Corbyn election.
They are going, amongst other things, invest £350M a week into the NHS, none of us will be a penny worse off with this deal and they will make the U.K. the best place to live on the planet.
The UK is already the best place to live on the planet.
Not according to Boris. He is going to create paradise.
Corbyn is irrelevant. Boris is in power. It is getting time for us to cash in all the promises he and the Tories have made.
Best place on the planet doesn't have to be paradise. Yet.
And Corbyn is wholly central to the whole debate. We live in a parliamentary democracy (Leavers pls note). If one side is not in power the/another is. So scrutiny of one side cannot take place without the context and equal scrutiny of the alternative.
Time for the government lot to stop playing the victim and blaming others. Grow up and take responsibility for the promises you have made. You have promised the world. Time to deliver it. You should start with that 350M a week.
The key point now is how this sets up the aftermath. Boris and the Conservatives own this outright. They have forced this through. If all is well they will benefit, but if the land of Brexit milk and honey fails to materialise they’ll have problems.
Which is why BoZo still needs an election before any of the ordure meets the spinny thing...
I expect he will win, but the Tories will probably spend the next five years regretting it in a rerun of 92-97 or 07-10.
Hardly, delivering Brexit and beating Corbyn and a 4th Tory term in office is key but you can only stretch the elastic so far
You have promised the world. Only fair you deliver it.
To be fair, I don’t think HYUFD has. The one thing he has been fairly consistent on is that the Conservatives must deliver Brexit (because referendum) and think they will lose any post Brexit/Corbyn election.
They are going, amongst other things, invest £350M a week into the NHS, none of us will be a penny worse off with this deal and they will make the U.K. the best place to live on the planet.
The UK is already the best place to live on the planet.
Not according to Boris. He is going to create paradise.
Corbyn is irrelevant. Boris is in power. It is getting time for us to cash in all the promises he and the Tories have made.
Best place on the planet doesn't have to be paradise. Yet.
And Corbyn is wholly central to the whole debate. We live in a parliamentary democracy (Leavers pls note). If one side is not in power the/another is. So scrutiny of one side cannot take place without the context and equal scrutiny of the alternative.
Time for the government lot to stop playing the victim and blaming others. Grow up and take responsibility for the promises you have made. You have promised the world. Time to deliver it. You should start with that 350M a week.
Well let them have the opportunity to deliver it then.
Sorry to spoil the fun from Canada. But barring something extraordinary the Second Reading vote for Brexit will finally take place at 7pm today!
[E X C I T E D] [C L A P] [C L A P]
I guess the expectation is that this passes but that the timetabling motion fails, due to grumpy Philip Hammond types? Or are there enough Labour rebels to see it over the line, in James Forsythe's words "to rip the plaster off quickly"?
With amendments for neither the customs union nor Second People's Confirmatory Vote looking likely to pass at the present time, should we be calibrating the base case to be Brexit on 30 November, the day before Sabine's delayed accession to Commission President?
And then a post Xmas general election in roughly March, once Boris has lost a few more votes in Parliament (including on the negotiating mandate for the free trade agreement)?
MPs putting down amendments for a second referendum and a customs union is going to sink the entire bill from what I've heard.
I don’t think the second referendum vote will go through. The customs union is trickier for the government but about 50/50 at this stage, id say.
Even if the DUP only abstain rather than vote against customs union, where does it get the numbers from?
The only wrecking amendment I can potentially see working at the moment is a VONC and even that looks more likely to fail than not.
That said it’s a very fragile and unlikely coalition that the govt has built. That’s why they’re want things dealt this week and why the Remain At All Cost gang are desperate to drag out the process.
So the key question is how many votes will the govt lose between Second Reading and the timetabling motion.
I see The Times has Labour to abstain on second reading. First they block a vote from taking place. Then when a vote finally happens, they decline to express an opinion. What a shower.
Surely not? That would be bonkers, even from them.
The second vote doesn't matter - it's a formality.
The timetable afterwards does matter as does any amendments they add in committee.
You could say the same thing about a Meaningful Vote but Grieve and Labour still schemed to make that formally a part of the legislative process for this bill.
Labour's cynical ploys are nakedly transparent to anyone that is paying an interest, which judging by the weekend viewing figures for Parliament's session seems to be an extraordinarily large number of people.
Mr. Northstar, I agree. The second game's just more polished, I think.
DA2 was obviously rushed. But, given that, it's not bad.
Sadly, given what's happened, my hopes for DA4 are pretty minimal.
Wouldn't be surprised if Bioware ended up being shut down.
Very sad as they were great. DA: I is brilliant and a poor end to that series would be a gut punch, the lore development in it is the best I've ever seen. DA2 is rushed but is actually really good story wise, I've replayed it like 8 times. Ending issues aside MA3 is a rare thing - a genuinely emotional game, not in a mawkish sense, but powerful, but still peppered with humour amidst darkness.
The key point now is how this sets up the aftermath. Boris and the Conservatives own this outright. They have forced this through. If all is well they will benefit, but if the land of Brexit milk and honey fails to materialise they’ll have problems.
Which is why BoZo still needs an election before any of the ordure meets the spinny thing...
I expect he will win, but the Tories will probably spend the next five years regretting it in a rerun of 92-97 or 07-10.
Hardly, delivering Brexit and beating Corbyn and a 4th Tory term in office is key but you can only stretch the elastic so far
You have promised the world. Only fair you deliver it.
To be fair, I don’t think HYUFD has. The one thing he has been fairly consistent on is that the Conservatives must deliver Brexit (because referendum) and think they will lose any post Brexit/Corbyn election.
They are going, amongst other things, invest £350M a week into the NHS, none of us will be a penny worse off with this deal and they will make the U.K. the best place to live on the planet.
The UK is already the best place to live on the planet.
Not according to Boris. He is going to create paradise.
Corbyn is irrelevant. Boris is in power. It is getting time for us to cash in all the promises he and the Tories have made.
Best place on the planet doesn't have to be paradise. Yet.
And Corbyn is wholly central to the whole debate. We live in a parliamentary democracy (Leavers pls note). If one side is not in power the/another is. So scrutiny of one side cannot take place without the context and equal scrutiny of the alternative.
Time for the government lot to stop playing the victim and blaming others. Grow up and take responsibility for the promises you have made. You have promised the world. Time to deliver it. You should start with that 350M a week.
Well let them have the opportunity to deliver it then.
The key point now is how this sets up the aftermath. Boris and the Conservatives own this outright. They have forced this through. If all is well they will benefit, but if the land of Brexit milk and honey fails to materialise they’ll have problems.
Which is why BoZo still needs an election before any of the ordure meets the spinny thing...
I expect he will win, but the Tories will probably spend the next five years regretting it in a rerun of 92-97 or 07-10.
Hardly, delivering Brexit and beating Corbyn and a 4th Tory term in office is key but you can only stretch the elastic so far
You have promised the world. Only fair you deliver it.
To be fair, I don’t think HYUFD has. The one thing he has been fairly consistent on is that the Conservatives must deliver Brexit (because referendum) and think they will lose any post Brexit/Corbyn election.
They are going, amongst other things, invest £350M a week into the NHS, none of us will be a penny worse off with this deal and they will make the U.K. the best place to live on the planet.
The UK is already the best place to live on the planet.
Not according to Boris. He is going to create paradise.
Corbyn is irrelevant. Boris is in power. It is getting time for us to cash in all the promises he and the Tories have made.
Best place on the planet doesn't have to be paradise. Yet.
And Corbyn is wholly central to the whole debate. We live in a parliamentary democracy (Leavers pls note). If one side is not in power the/another is. So scrutiny of one side cannot take place without the context and equal scrutiny of the alternative.
Time for the government lot to stop playing the victim and blaming others. Grow up and take responsibility for the promises you have made. You have promised the world. Time to deliver it. You should start with that 350M a week.
If the gov loses amendments on CU and second ref the bill will be pulled. If they win on those amendments they will face a VONC.
I speculated the labour leavers would abstain at least for now given they are possibly ending their careers to back the bill but everyone seems certain they'll back the party in a VONC.
Meaning is there any chance of the bill passing? If amended cons will drop it. If not amended the opposition have to no confidence the Gov even if they fear an election - their base will not forgive Brexit happening.
I am not at all sure a vonc would pass when that would delay brexit
The fury in the country would be uncontained and labour decimated
The key point now is how this sets up the aftermath. Boris and the Conservatives own this outright. They have forced this through. If all is well they will benefit, but if the land of Brexit milk and honey fails to materialise they’ll have problems.
Which is why BoZo still needs an election before any of the ordure meets the spinny thing...
I expect he will win, but the Tories will probably spend the next five years regretting it in a rerun of 92-97 or 07-10.
Hardly, delivering Brexit and beating Corbyn and a 4th Tory term in office is key but you can only stretch the elastic so far
You have promised the world. Only fair you deliver it.
To be fair, I don’t think HYUFD has. The one thing he has been fairly consistent on is that the Conservatives must deliver Brexit (because referendum) and think they will lose any post Brexit/Corbyn election.
They are going, amongst other things, invest £350M a week into the NHS, none of us will be a penny worse off with this deal and they will make the U.K. the best place to live on the planet.
The UK is already the best place to live on the planet.
Not according to Boris. He is going to create paradise.
Corbyn is irrelevant. Boris is in power. It is getting time for us to cash in all the promises he and the Tories have made.
Best place on the planet doesn't have to be paradise. Yet.
And Corbyn is wholly central to the whole debate. We live in a parliamentary democracy (Leavers pls note). If one side is not in power the/another is. So scrutiny of one side cannot take place without the context and equal scrutiny of the alternative.
Time for the government lot to stop playing the victim and blaming others. Grow up and take responsibility for the promises you have made. You have promised the world. Time to deliver it. You should start with that 350M a week.
Well let them have the opportunity to deliver it then.
They’ve had nine years so far.
This government hasn’t had nine years. And no promises made about Brexit can be fulfilled as it hasn’t happened. So let them get on with it if you’re sure they’re wrong.
The key point now is how this sets up the aftermath. Boris and the Conservatives own this outright. They have forced this through. If all is well they will benefit, but if the land of Brexit milk and honey fails to materialise they’ll have problems.
Which is why BoZo still needs an election before any of the ordure meets the spinny thing...
I expect he will win, but the Tories will probably spend the next five years regretting it in a rerun of 92-97 or 07-10.
Hardly, delivering Brexit and beating Corbyn and a 4th Tory term in office is key but you can only stretch the elastic so far
You have promised the world. Only fair you deliver it.
To be fair, I don’t think HYUFD has. The one thing he has been fairly consistent on is that the Conservatives must deliver Brexit (because referendum) and think they will lose any post Brexit/Corbyn election.
They are going, amongst other things, invest £350M a week into the NHS, none of us will be a penny worse off with this deal and they will make the U.K. the best place to live on the planet.
The UK is already the best place to live on the planet.
Not according to Boris. He is going to create paradise.
Corbyn is irrelevant. Boris is in power. It is getting time for us to cash in all the promises he and the Tories have made.
Best place on the planet doesn't have to be paradise. Yet.
And Corbyn is wholly central to the whole debate. We live in a parliamentary democracy (Leavers pls note). If one side is not in power the/another is. So scrutiny of one side cannot take place without the context and equal scrutiny of the alternative.
Time for the government lot to stop playing the victim and blaming others. Grow up and take responsibility for the promises you have made. You have promised the world. Time to deliver it. You should start with that 350M a week.
It wasn't the government that promised that.
The prime minister did. He has not disowned his promise. Come on chaps. Get on with it.
Apparently the Tory rebels in discussion with 10 Downing Street over more parliamentary oversight during trade negotiations.
I really do think all of this is irrelevant, if the Tories win a decent majority they’ll have enough lobby fodder to get anything through .
Putting that aside I do sense some Remainers who applauded the 21 rebels for trying to stop no deal are now moving the goalposts . Judging by the comments across social media .
I have no problem with those rebels supporting the deal , they said they were against no deal.
My biggest fear was no deal , I do feel that’s off the table now regardless of Goves protestations.
No Deal remains a real possibility at the end of 2020 under this WAB.
Trying to work out which groups would prefer a GE before an exit...
I would say it would be to the LD's benefit.
Certainly the SNP's.
The Tories will be happy of course.
Labour would most certainly not be happy.
The line of least resistance to me looks like a GE rather than the WA passing.
I certainly agree SNP and LD. I certainly agree Labour DON'T want an election.
I'm not sure about the Conservatives. It could easily be seat gains for them, but they are likely to lose quite a few in Scotland (which won't help their Unionist protestations) and to the LD in the South West. Probably net seat gains, but it involves throwing about thirty MPs under a bus (a phrase used a lot lately). IF (and its a big IF) the BXP can get traction, it could all go so horribly wrong for them.
Doubt the DUP want an election. Not sure about Sinn Fein. Probably don't care. Greens and Plaid probably don't care for one either.
I don't think the LibDems will gain many Conservative seats in the South West. They'll probably get St Ives, and maybe they'll hold Totnes, but it's slim pickings after that.
Their chances are much better in suburban Remainia, places like Richmond Park, and in the market towns of South East England where they used to do very well.
Totnes is staying Conservative.
Is Sarah Wollaston not standing for them there? I'd reckon she's a 25-30% chance of holding if she does.
Totnes is very slightly more Leave than the median seat (53.9% vs 53.6%). The median Leave seats are:
Tewkesbury - Laurence Robertson, Conservative, majority 22,574. Wells - James Heappey, Conservative, majority 7,582. Basingstoke - Maria Miller, Conservative, majority 9,466. Banff and Buchan - David Duguid, Conservative, majority 3,693.
The consensus view seems to be that there probably is a majority for Johnson's deal but not by 31st October.
Woe betide those MPs that the public perceive are delaying Brexit just to get it past the 31st October so they can go nur-nur na nur-nur to the Prime Minister.....
I’m not sure opposition MPs realise how nakedly transparent that play is to the general public.
They won’t profit by it. It just looks petulant at the country’s expense.
So you’ve read and analysed the entire bill and think it should be passed with minimal scrutiny ? One of the blank cheque Boris brigade.
I speed read the main Bill last night in about 20 minutes. Easily done. It’s 40 pages of clauses with about 70 of schedules and annexes.
The rest is hokum. The Deal has been on the table for almost a year. MPs have debated the WA exhaustively.
The delaying tactics are very obvious, and rather desperate.
I don't disagree with you on (some of) the tactics. However it's perfectly reasonable to give it decent scrutiny. I've long thought a border in the Irish sea was a possible solution but I'm not overly comfortable with how this has been foisted upon Northern Ireland.
The Ashcroft poll yesterday was also very striking. The fact that people seem no more concerned with keeping Scotland in the union rather than Northern Ireland shocked me and should be a serious worry to scottish unionists.
The Conservative and Unionist party have been taken over, I thought Blukip was a more accurate representation than conservative, but actually they are not a UK party either, it is an English nationalist party who see long term tactical political advantage by removing 59 MPs that tend to the left.
Whilst I think most of the rest of us would be keen for Scotland to stay in we would also respect their right to decide their own fate. Without an effective Conservative and Unionist party the bonds to keep Scotland within the UK would need to come almost entirely from the Scottish side.
A united Ireland is long overdue. You and your ideas are part of the problem not the solution.
Richard, I don't disagree with the fundamental endpoint of a united Ireland; I suspect it's where most reasonable people sit, including Beverley. The trouble is there are a lot headbangers in the North (and some in Scotland) who will raise merry hell. The GFA was an effective way to de-escalate the conflict, park it for a generation or three, and hope that a permanent solution would become less disruptive.
It is the Brexiteers who are blowing up the status quo. Some don't seem to care that they might end up with blood on their hands. Others indulge in unicornery. Your solution, while admirably logical and moral, is not practical.
No, it’s Leo’s fault
Brexit was a fact. Leo has a choice to work in a collaborative manner - in the spirit of the GFA - or to use the leverage to gain tactical advantage
The result is one community feels wronged (either the unionists with this deal or the nationalists with a hard border).
And he has awoken demons better left sleeping
***PLEASE can everyone stop conflating Loyalists and Unionists. This is exactly what Loyalists like to do. They are evil murdering bastards and shouldn’t be given any credence. They do not represent the Unionist community ***
No. Brexit, as we are seeing and have seen for the past three years, most certainly wasn't and now isn't a fact. It is all up for negotiation. And Leo has a political mandate, as does Boris Johnson. As head of a foreign state I find it interesting that you come close to prescribe how he should behave.
The sleeping demons were awoken by the UK voting to leave the EU. Some of those voting leave were evidently too dumb to understand the implications for NI.
Neither community would have felt particularly wronged with, say, an EEA solution. Which is Brexit.
Benn's objection seems bizarre considering he is the author of the Benn Act. The part of the legislation he has highlighted seems little different in reality to Article 50(3) seeking an extension to the Article 50 period.
If in the future Parliament wanted to force an extension onto the government what is to stop it passing a future equivalent of the Benn Act? And if the future Parliament didn't want to force an extension then its moot.
The key point now is how this sets up the aftermath. Boris and the Conservatives own this outright. They have forced this through. If all is well they will benefit, but if the land of Brexit milk and honey fails to materialise they’ll have problems.
Which is why BoZo still needs an election before any of the ordure meets the spinny thing...
I expect he will win, but the Tories will probably spend the next five years regretting it in a rerun of 92-97 or 07-10.
Hardly, delivering Brexit and beating Corbyn and a 4th Tory term in office is key but you can only stretch the elastic so far
You have promised the world. Only fair you deliver it.
To be fair, I don’t think HYUFD has. The one thing he has been fairly consistent on is that the Conservatives must deliver Brexit (because referendum) and think they will lose any post Brexit/Corbyn election.
They are going, amongst other things, invest £350M a week into the NHS, none of us will be a penny worse off with this deal and they will make the U.K. the best place to live on the planet.
The UK is already the best place to live on the planet.
Not according to Boris. He is going to create paradise.
Corbyn is irrelevant. Boris is in power. It is getting time for us to cash in all the promises he and the Tories have made.
Best place on the planet doesn't have to be paradise. Yet.
And Corbyn is wholly central to the whole debate. We live in a parliamentary democracy (Leavers pls note). If one side is not in power the/another is. So scrutiny of one side cannot take place without the context and equal scrutiny of the alternative.
Time for the government lot to stop playing the victim and blaming others. Grow up and take responsibility for the promises you have made. You have promised the world. Time to deliver it. You should start with that 350M a week.
If the gov loses amendments on CU and second ref the bill will be pulled. If they win on those amendments they will face a VONC.
I speculated the labour leavers would abstain at least for now given they are possibly ending their careers to back the bill but everyone seems certain they'll back the party in a VONC.
Meaning is there any chance of the bill passing? If amended cons will drop it. If not amended the opposition have to no confidence the Gov even if they fear an election - their base will not forgive Brexit happening.
I am not at all sure a vonc would pass when that would delay brexit
The fury in the country would be uncontained and labour decimated
If the votes are there for the bill a VONC is the last roll of the dice for remainers. While the timetabling is dumb and sure to fail, I can see the appeal as we get to see if any of the amendments will fly this week.
As it is end of November looks like the earliest possible leave date? They're going to be discussing this for bloody weeks at least.
Because when I post twitter threads most people only read the one I posted rather than clicking on it and reading the whole thread; the interesting parts of this thread
A united Ireland is long overdue. You and your ideas are part of the problem not the solution.
Richard, I don't disagree with the fundamental endpoint of a united Ireland; I suspect it's where most reasonable people sit, including Beverley. The trouble is there are a lot headbangers in the North (and some in Scotland) who will raise merry hell. The GFA was an effective way to de-escalate the conflict, park it for a generation or three, and hope that a permanent solution would become less disruptive.
It is the Brexiteers who are blowing up the status quo. Some don't seem to care that they might end up with blood on their hands. Others indulge in unicornery. Your solution, while admirably logical and moral, is not practical.
No, it’s Leo’s fault
Brexit was a fact. Leo has a choice to work in a collaborative manner - in the spirit of the GFA - or to use the leverage to gain tactical advantage
The result is one community feels wronged (either the unionists with this deal or the nationalists with a hard border).
And he has awoken demons better left sleeping
***PLEASE can everyone stop conflating Loyalists and Unionists. This is exactly what Loyalists like to do. They are evil murdering bastards and shouldn’t be given any credence. They do not represent the Unionist community ***
Yet the Unionists vote for the DUP which was (as shown in the BBC Spotlight on the Troubles secret history series) founded to represent the Loyalists viewpoint. The links between Ian Paisley and the UVF I will leave to the program.
I thought it was obvious to people that NI politics has moved to the extremes. Heck the Unionists don't really have a centralist unionist party now the UUP has gone - most centralists Unionists I know vote Alliance.
The bill also sets aside the provisions of the Constitutional Reform and Governance Act (Crag) of 2010, which requires that international treaties be before Parliament for a minimum of 21 sitting days before ratification.
Which is another blank cheque detail its enthusiasts failed to mention.
I absolutely despise that woman . Wanting a no deal Brexit is truly appalling .
Why do you despise someone for holding a different view?
I never think that is a good way to approach differences with people, it leads to entrenchment in opposing views and makes rapprochement more difficult.
Because when I post twitter threads most people only read the one I posted rather than clicking on it and reading the whole thread; the interesting parts of this thread
Hes right, although people don't seem to have a problem pronouncing on the implications and thus overall worthiness of the bill sooner than 2 weeks when they already oppose it.
Apparently the Tory rebels in discussion with 10 Downing Street over more parliamentary oversight during trade negotiations.
I really do think all of this is irrelevant, if the Tories win a decent majority they’ll have enough lobby fodder to get anything through .
Putting that aside I do sense some Remainers who applauded the 21 rebels for trying to stop no deal are now moving the goalposts . Judging by the comments across social media .
I have no problem with those rebels supporting the deal , they said they were against no deal.
My biggest fear was no deal , I do feel that’s off the table now regardless of Goves protestations.
No Deal remains a real possibility at the end of 2020 under this WAB.
On a purely personal note, my dual nationality should be sorted by then.
Apparently the Tory rebels in discussion with 10 Downing Street over more parliamentary oversight during trade negotiations.
I really do think all of this is irrelevant, if the Tories win a decent majority they’ll have enough lobby fodder to get anything through .
Putting that aside I do sense some Remainers who applauded the 21 rebels for trying to stop no deal are now moving the goalposts . Judging by the comments across social media .
I have no problem with those rebels supporting the deal , they said they were against no deal.
My biggest fear was no deal , I do feel that’s off the table now regardless of Goves protestations.
No Deal remains a real possibility at the end of 2020 under this WAB.
Technically yes, but realistically why would a govt choose that option? The only way it was going to happen was if the govt was completely boxed in by its own rhetoric, which they tried their best to do. As much as I think the PM is completely unsuitable to his role, there is little to suggest he actually wants no deal or the immense responsibility that trying to deliver it in a stable way would bring.
The prime minister did. He has not disowned his promise. Come on chaps. Get on with it.
You're right. But wait. There is no majority. Obviously you don't expect a government to be able to deliver on its promises without a majority to do so. Hence let's have an election to see just who the public wants to run the country and deliver on its many promises.
I wouldn't get hung up on the £350m for the NHS btw because once that is allocated then your argument has nowhere else to go.
Tories already trying to wriggle off the hook for the promises they have made. Can’t say I’m surprised. The job of the opposition is now to hold them to account. They will blame the whole world.
Benn's objection seems bizarre considering he is the author of the Benn Act. The part of the legislation he has highlighted seems little different in reality to Article 50(3) seeking an extension to the Article 50 period.
If in the future Parliament wanted to force an extension onto the government what is to stop it passing a future equivalent of the Benn Act? And if the future Parliament didn't want to force an extension then its moot.
Indeed. Or they could use the old fashioned way of doing a VONC in the government. Benn and others have become rather silly.
The prime minister did. He has not disowned his promise. Come on chaps. Get on with it.
You're right. But wait. There is no majority. Obviously you don't expect a government to be able to deliver on its promises without a majority to do so. Hence let's have an election to see just who the public wants to run the country and deliver on its many promises.
I wouldn't get hung up on the £350m for the NHS btw because once that is allocated then your argument has nowhere else to go.
Because when I post twitter threads most people only read the one I posted rather than clicking on it and reading the whole thread; the interesting parts of this thread
Hes right, although people don't seem to have a problem pronouncing on the implications and thus overall worthiness of the bill sooner than 2 weeks when they already oppose it.
But you can oppose the bill because you can't understand it's implications. "I refuse to vote for a thing we cannot currently comprehend" is a good reason to not vote for a thing.
I get a sense that Boris has the momentum and he is taking the Country with him
5 live did a vox pop this morning from London and everyone interviewed was furious demanding the mps get this done. The following phone in mirrored the London vox pop and it did surprise me as you would expect some dissenting voices especially in London
The media highlighting Labour's furious attempts to derail the deal is just bad politics
Labour are in danger of turning brexit into their poll tax
I understand the one nation conservatives are now firmly in the Boris camp so we have the extraordinary fact that Boris has united all parts of the party and which is in fine shape for a GE
A united Ireland is long overdue. You and your ideas are part of the problem not the solution.
Richard, I don't disagree with the fundamental endpoint of a united Ireland; I suspect it's where most reasonable people sit, including Beverley. The trouble is there are a lot headbangers in the North (and some in Scotland) who will raise merry hell. The GFA was an effective way to de-escalate the conflict, park it for a generation or three, and hope that a permanent solution would become less disruptive.
It is the Brexiteers who are blowing up the status quo. Some don't seem to care that they might end up with blood on their hands. Others indulge in unicornery. Your solution, while admirably logical and moral, is not practical.
No, it’s Leo’s fault
Brexit was a fact. Leo has a choice to work in a collaborative manner - in the spirit of the GFA - or to use the leverage to gain tactical advantage
The result is one community feels wronged (either the unionists with this deal or the nationalists with a hard border).
And he has awoken demons better left sleeping
***PLEASE can everyone stop conflating Loyalists and Unionists. This is exactly what Loyalists like to do. They are evil murdering bastards and shouldn’t be given any credence. They do not represent the Unionist community ***
No. Brexit, as we are seeing and have seen for the past three years, most certainly wasn't and now isn't a fact. It is all up for negotiation. And Leo has a political mandate, as does Boris Johnson. As head of a foreign state I find it interesting that you come close to prescribe how he should behave.
The sleeping demons were awoken by the UK voting to leave the EU. Some of those voting leave were evidently too dumb to understand the implications for NI.
Neither community would have felt particularly wronged with, say, an EEA solution. Which is Brexit.
I’m not prescribing how he should have behaved. I’m saying he fucked up big time and should have pursues Enda Kenny’s strategy. That’s just political comment
The prime minister did. He has not disowned his promise. Come on chaps. Get on with it.
You're right. But wait. There is no majority. Obviously you don't expect a government to be able to deliver on its promises without a majority to do so. Hence let's have an election to see just who the public wants to run the country and deliver on its many promises.
I wouldn't get hung up on the £350m for the NHS btw because once that is allocated then your argument has nowhere else to go.
Excuses. Get on with it.
How strange for someone commenting on a political website not to understand how politics works.
The prime minister did. He has not disowned his promise. Come on chaps. Get on with it.
You're right. But wait. There is no majority. Obviously you don't expect a government to be able to deliver on its promises without a majority to do so. Hence let's have an election to see just who the public wants to run the country and deliver on its many promises.
I wouldn't get hung up on the £350m for the NHS btw because once that is allocated then your argument has nowhere else to go.
Excuses. Get on with it.
The democratically elected representatives of our parliament = excuses?
Seriously, many leavers seem to just want a benevolent (in their eyes) dictator to "get on with it". We are an adversarial parliamentary democracy.
It is the job of parliament to legislate and government to govern. When the governing party is gifted a majority by the voting populace, they legislate as they can pass votes within their party. When refused a majority, the governing party has to work with the parliament they have.
Why ignore the democratic vote of the people that provided this split parliament? People obviously didn't trust the Tories brand of Brexit and wanted it frustrated, otherwise they wouldn't have voted how they did. May and Johnson should have reached across the aisle, not tried government by executive overreach, as they have done consistently.
Benn's objection seems bizarre considering he is the author of the Benn Act. The part of the legislation he has highlighted seems little different in reality to Article 50(3) seeking an extension to the Article 50 period.
If in the future Parliament wanted to force an extension onto the government what is to stop it passing a future equivalent of the Benn Act? And if the future Parliament didn't want to force an extension then its moot.
Indeed. Or they could use the old fashioned way of doing a VONC in the government. Benn and others have become rather silly.
That is because VONC could lead to Corbyn PM, which is a no no for Benn and his ilk.
A united Ireland is long overdue. You and your ideas are part of the problem not the solution.
Richard, I don't disagree with the fundamental endpoint of a united Ireland; I suspect it's where most reasonable people sit, including Beverley. The trouble is there are a lot headbangers in the North (and some in Scotland) who will raise merry hell. The GFA was an effective way to de-escalate the conflict, park it for a generation or three, and hope that a permanent solution would become less disruptive.
It is the Brexiteers who are blowing up the status quo. Some don't seem to care that they might end up with blood on their hands. Others indulge in unicornery. Your solution, while admirably logical and moral, is not practical.
No, it’s Leo’s fault
Brexit was a fact. Leo has a choice to work in a collaborative manner - in the spirit of the GFA - or to use the leverage to gain tactical advantage
The result is one community feels wronged (either the unionists with this deal or the nationalists with a hard border).
And he has awoken demons better left sleeping
***PLEASE can everyone stop conflating Loyalists and Unionists. This is exactly what Loyalists like to do. They are evil murdering bastards and shouldn’t be given any credence. They do not represent the Unionist community ***
No. Brexit, as we are seeing and have seen for the past three years, most certainly wasn't and now isn't a fact. It is all up for negotiation. And Leo has a political mandate, as does Boris Johnson. As head of a foreign state I find it interesting that you come close to prescribe how he should behave.
The sleeping demons were awoken by the UK voting to leave the EU. Some of those voting leave were evidently too dumb to understand the implications for NI.
Neither community would have felt particularly wronged with, say, an EEA solution. Which is Brexit.
I’m not prescribing how he should have behaved. I’m saying he fucked up big time and should have pursues Enda Kenny’s strategy. That’s just political comment
Enda Kenny didn't say as much as people wish he did. In particular the increased level of smuggling he envisaged was and has proved problematic. Whether that is a good thing or not is up for debate but I can see why it would have done.
The consensus view seems to be that there probably is a majority for Johnson's deal but not by 31st October.
Woe betide those MPs that the public perceive are delaying Brexit just to get it past the 31st October so they can go nur-nur na nur-nur to the Prime Minister.....
I’m not sure opposition MPs realise how nakedly transparent that play is to the general public.
They won’t profit by it. It just looks petulant at the country’s expense.
So you’ve read and analysed the entire bill and think it should be passed with minimal scrutiny ? One of the blank cheque Boris brigade.
I speed read the main Bill last night in about 20 minutes. Easily done. It’s 40 pages of clauses with about 70 of schedules and annexes.
The rest is hokum. The Deal has been on the table for almost a year. MPs have debated the WA exhaustively.
The delaying tactics are very obvious, and rather desperate.
I don't disagree with you on (some of) the tactics. However it's perfectly reasonable to give it decent scrutiny. I've long thought a border in the Irish sea was a possible solution but I'm not overly comfortable with how this has been foisted upon Northern Ireland.
The Ashcroft poll yesterday was also very striking. The fact that people seem no more concerned with keeping Scotland in the union rather than Northern Ireland shocked me and should be a serious worry to scottish unionists.
Voters as a whole preferred keeping Scotland and Northern Ireland in the Union over Brecit but Leavers preferred Brecit to keeping them in the Union.
However it is a false choice for as long as No Deal is avoided the Union likely stays intact and the Tories will of course block indyref2 at least until the 2021 Holyrood elections anyway
The proposed method of the Union which would allow NI in both parts of GB and EU will end up tearing up the Union as Scotland is directly disadvantaged by such a deal, and would likely leave the UK to rejoin the EU. I also think a border down the Irish Sea makes Irish reunification more likely.
Wrong. The only polls putting Yes ahead in Scotland are with No Deal which the Boris Deal avoids, indeed the latest polling has only a minority of Scots opposed to the Boris Deal.
In Northern Ireland meanwhile the only polls giving a majority for a united Ireland are in the event of a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, which the Boris Deal also avoids.
The prime minister did. He has not disowned his promise. Come on chaps. Get on with it.
You're right. But wait. There is no majority. Obviously you don't expect a government to be able to deliver on its promises without a majority to do so. Hence let's have an election to see just who the public wants to run the country and deliver on its many promises.
I wouldn't get hung up on the £350m for the NHS btw because once that is allocated then your argument has nowhere else to go.
Mr. kle4, aye, the lore of Dragon Age is great. A shame that the Tevinter gang heists planned for DA4 seem to have been scuttled in favour of live service piffle, but we'll see what happens.
On-topic: suppose only a second referendum amendment gets tacked on. Does the Government pull the deal?
Because when I post twitter threads most people only read the one I posted rather than clicking on it and reading the whole thread; the interesting parts of this thread
Hes right, although people don't seem to have a problem pronouncing on the implications and thus overall worthiness of the bill sooner than 2 weeks when they already oppose it.
Examples of such people include Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees Mogg who within 5 minutes of their leaders WA (95% the same as their one) managed to work out how terrible they thought it was. Nothing to do with their own ambitions for the top jobs of course......
The consensus view seems to be that there probably is a majority for Johnson's deal but not by 31st October.
Woe betide those MPs that the public perceive are delaying Brexit just to get it past the 31st October so they can go nur-nur na nur-nur to the Prime Minister.....
I’m not sure opposition MPs realise how nakedly transparent that play is to the general public.
They won’t profit by it. It just looks petulant at the country’s expense.
So you’ve read and analysed the entire bill and think it should be passed with minimal scrutiny ? One of the blank cheque Boris brigade.
I speed read the main Bill last night in about 20 minutes. Easily done. It’s 40 pages of clauses with about 70 of schedules and annexes.
The rest is hokum. The Deal has been on the table for almost a year. MPs have debated the WA exhaustively.
The delaying tactics are very obvious, and rather desperate.
I don't disagree with you on (some of) the tactics. However it's perfectly reasonable to give it decent scrutiny. I've long thought a border in the Irish sea was a possible solution but I'm not overly comfortable with how this has been foisted upon Northern Ireland.
The Ashcroft poll yesterday was also very striking. The fact that people seem no more concerned with keeping Scotland in the union rather than Northern Ireland shocked me and should be a serious worry to scottish unionists.
The Conservative and Unionist party have been taken over, I thought Blukip was a more accurate representation than conservative, but actually they are not a UK party either, it is an English nationalist party who see long term tactical political advantage by removing 59 MPs that tend to the left.
Whilst I think most of the rest of us would be keen for Scotland to stay in we would also respect their right to decide their own fate. Without an effective Conservative and Unionist party the bonds to keep Scotland within the UK would need to come almost entirely from the Scottish side.
The Scottish Conservative and Unionist party is still polling a strong second in Scotland.
Because when I post twitter threads most people only read the one I posted rather than clicking on it and reading the whole thread; the interesting parts of this thread
Hes right, although people don't seem to have a problem pronouncing on the implications and thus overall worthiness of the bill sooner than 2 weeks when they already oppose it.
But you can oppose the bill because you can't understand it's implications. "I refuse to vote for a thing we cannot currently comprehend" is a good reason to not vote for a thing.
That depends if the lack of understanding is genuine or an excuse.
I imagined plenty of it is genuine, but also that plenty will not be
Because when I post twitter threads most people only read the one I posted rather than clicking on it and reading the whole thread; the interesting parts of this thread
Hes right, although people don't seem to have a problem pronouncing on the implications and thus overall worthiness of the bill sooner than 2 weeks when they already oppose it.
Examples of such people include Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees Mogg who within 5 minutes of their leaders WA (95% the same as their one) managed to work out how terrible they thought it was. Nothing to do with their own ambitions for the top jobs of course......
Absolutely, they behaved disgracefully. Their opponents employ the same tactics and that's crappy too.
Because when I post twitter threads most people only read the one I posted rather than clicking on it and reading the whole thread; the interesting parts of this thread
Hes right, although people don't seem to have a problem pronouncing on the implications and thus overall worthiness of the bill sooner than 2 weeks when they already oppose it.
A mystery of our time is why Fleet Street's go-to British constitutional law expert is David Allen Green, a noted media solicitor.
Wrong. The only polls putting Yes ahead in Scotland are with No Deal which the Boris Deal avoids, indeed the latest polling has only a minority of Scots opposed to the Boris Deal.
In Northern Ireland meanwhile the only polls giving a majority for a united Ireland are in the event of a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, which the Boris Deal also avoids.
I suspect you are going to be very surprised.
When reality hits NI is going to realise they are second class UK citizens so may as well join Ireland - I suspect that reality will be obvious by December 2020.
And Scotland will once again elect 50+ SNP MPs who will either have no say in things or be keeping Labour in power. If the former resentment will grow until the Tories lose seats and Labour take power with SNP support. And then a second referendum will be held
Hence I believe both NI and Scotland leaving the UK is now inevitable.
Bit keep looking at polls - I'm sure you can always find a sub-sub sample that proves your point.
I get a sense that Boris has the momentum and he is taking the Country with him
5 live did a vox pop this morning from London and everyone interviewed was furious demanding the mps get this done. The following phone in mirrored the London vox pop and it did surprise me as you would expect some dissenting voices especially in London
The media highlighting Labour's furious attempts to derail the deal is just bad politics
Labour are in danger of turning brexit into their poll tax
I understand the one nation conservatives are now firmly in the Boris camp so we have the extraordinary fact that Boris has united all parts of the party and which is in fine shape for a GE
I distrust vox pox and the editor who chooses them. Just as I distrust QT and the producer who chooses the audience.
Whenever a vox pox comes on the TV or radio I tune out. I don't care what some random bloke thinks, or worse some non-random bloke or blokess.
Wrong. The only polls putting Yes ahead in Scotland are with No Deal which the Boris Deal avoids, indeed the latest polling has only a minority of Scots opposed to the Boris Deal.
In Northern Ireland meanwhile the only polls giving a majority for a united Ireland are in the event of a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, which the Boris Deal also avoids.
I suspect you are going to be very surprised.
When reality hits NI is going to realise they are second class UK citizens so may as well join Ireland - I suspect that reality will be obvious by December 2020.
And Scotland will once again elect 50+ SNP MPs who will either have no say in things or be keeping Labour in power. If the former resentment will grow until the Tories lose seats and Labour take power with SNP support. And then a second referendum will be held
Hence I believe both NI and Scotland leaving the UK is now inevitable.
Bit keep looking at polls - I'm sure you can always find a sub-sub sample that proves your point.
@HYUFD himself has accepted that Great Britain and Northern Ireland are diverging.
The proposed method of the Union which would allow NI in both parts of GB and EU will end up tearing up the Union as Scotland is directly disadvantaged by such a deal, and would likely leave the UK to rejoin the EU. I also think a border down the Irish Sea makes Irish reunification more likely.
Wrong. The only polls putting Yes ahead in Scotland are with No Deal which the Boris Deal avoids, indeed the latest polling has only a minority of Scots opposed to the Boris Deal.
In Northern Ireland meanwhile the only polls giving a majority for a united Ireland are in the event of a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, which the Boris Deal also avoids.
Once the economic imbalance of NI v Scotland come into focus, I think Scotland will vote to leave. I also think that polls are snapshots of the current state of play, not necessarily immutable positions; as some politicians put it targets to beat, not reality to meet. That's what campaigns are for.
Indyref 2 will not have Cameron heading the "Stay together" campaign, and Labour will be unwilling to work with Conservatives on the issue. Johnson, Mogg and the current crop of leading Tories will not have the Cameroonian disposition to sway a certain section of swing voters.
If Scotland leaves the Union, the Northern Irish question becomes more existential; is the Union still the Union without Scotland? I think that question alone will lead to a border poll; add onto it any of the myriad externalities created by Brexit, and I think it is fair to say the Union is odds on to be 2 countries down within my lifetime.
I get a sense that Boris has the momentum and he is taking the Country with him
5 live did a vox pop this morning from London and everyone interviewed was furious demanding the mps get this done. The following phone in mirrored the London vox pop and it did surprise me as you would expect some dissenting voices especially in London
The media highlighting Labour's furious attempts to derail the deal is just bad politics
Labour are in danger of turning brexit into their poll tax
I understand the one nation conservatives are now firmly in the Boris camp so we have the extraordinary fact that Boris has united all parts of the party and which is in fine shape for a GE
I distrust vox pox and the editor who chooses them. Just as I distrust QT and the producer who chooses the audience.
Whenever a vox pox comes on the TV or radio I tune out. I don't care what some random bloke thinks, or worse some non-random bloke or blokess.
I trust vox pop o the doorstep if I'm doing the canvassing and I know who they supported last time. That's real information. The rest is just chaff mediated by the media to create a story rather than provide information.
Comments
But anyway, this is irrelevant as I was talking about how this plays out for the parties in a subsequent election.
The Bloc Quebecois also overtook the NDP for third in terms of seats which may be good for the SNP as the Bloc are their sister party.
The UK Tories will be disappointed their sister party lost but encouraged it did at least win the popular vote
What about the cliff edge Dec 2020 for a FTA agreement has been debated for an entire year ?
Hokum indeed.
The Ashcroft poll yesterday was also very striking. The fact that people seem no more concerned with keeping Scotland in the union rather than Northern Ireland shocked me and should be a serious worry to scottish unionists.
However it is a false choice for as long as No Deal is avoided the Union likely stays intact and the Tories will of course block indyref2 at least until the 2021 Holyrood elections anyway
Personally, I think the greatest interest will come in Clause 31 (pages 33 and 34) that relate to Parliamentary oversight of negotiation of the full FTA. I think MPs won’t want to be fully bound by the political declaration of 17th October by law and nor do I think they’ll be happy with the Government keeping fairly shtum about it until a maximum of 30 Commons sitting days from the end of the implementation period.
They’ll want oversight and input throughout.
As far as I can tell all this deal really does is reset time to Jan 2018, just with no MEPs/representation and with potential no deal switching the border issue in NI from the Irish mainland to the Irish Sea. Oh, and no UK threat to refuse to pay the exit bill - also settled.
Oh, and the “People’s vote” campaign (to rejoin) now legitimate in the eyes of leavers
You can see why the EU like it!
Corbyn is irrelevant. Boris is in power. It is getting time for us to cash in all the promises he and the Tories have made.
The most tribalist party by far that has an MP who couldn't be friends with a Tory.
And Corbyn is wholly central to the whole debate. We live in a parliamentary democracy (Leavers pls note). If one side is not in power the/another is. So scrutiny of one side cannot take place without the context and equal scrutiny of the alternative.
Brexit was a fact. Leo has a choice to work in a collaborative manner - in the spirit of the GFA - or to use the leverage to gain tactical advantage
The result is one community feels wronged (either the unionists with this deal or the nationalists with a hard border).
And he has awoken demons better left sleeping
***PLEASE can everyone stop conflating Loyalists and Unionists. This is exactly what Loyalists like to do. They are evil murdering bastards and shouldn’t be given any credence. They do not represent the Unionist community ***
I really do think all of this is irrelevant, if the Tories win a decent majority they’ll have enough lobby fodder to get anything through .
Putting that aside I do sense some Remainers who applauded the 21 rebels for trying to stop no deal are now moving the goalposts . Judging by the comments across social media .
I have no problem with those rebels supporting the deal , they said they were against no deal.
My biggest fear was no deal , I do feel that’s off the table now regardless of Goves protestations.
I speculated the labour leavers would abstain at least for now given they are possibly ending their careers to back the bill but everyone seems certain they'll back the party in a VONC.
Meaning is there any chance of the bill passing? If amended cons will drop it. If not amended the opposition have to no confidence the Gov even if they fear an election - their base will not forgive Brexit happening.
If this Bill is substantially amended (except for arrangements in the implementation period) the whole Deal collapses.
I dont think the majority is there for a customs union and it is messy for a legislature to significantly change a treaty. 2nd ref could be closer but the govt wouldnt go ahead with it.
We'll be arguing about this throughout a generation of decline, sadly.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1186548020978036736
The fury in the country would be uncontained and labour decimated
Whilst I think most of the rest of us would be keen for Scotland to stay in we would also respect their right to decide their own fate. Without an effective Conservative and Unionist party the bonds to keep Scotland within the UK would need to come almost entirely from the Scottish side.
The sleeping demons were awoken by the UK voting to leave the EU. Some of those voting leave were evidently too dumb to understand the implications for NI.
Neither community would have felt particularly wronged with, say, an EEA solution. Which is Brexit.
If in the future Parliament wanted to force an extension onto the government what is to stop it passing a future equivalent of the Benn Act? And if the future Parliament didn't want to force an extension then its moot.
But that commitment has already been honoured.
As it is end of November looks like the earliest possible leave date? They're going to be discussing this for bloody weeks at least.
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1186538899176382465
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1186541953149747201
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1186542264908161024
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1186543125625561088
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1186546234250665984
I thought it was obvious to people that NI politics has moved to the extremes. Heck the Unionists don't really have a centralist unionist party now the UUP has gone - most centralists Unionists I know vote Alliance.
Which is another blank cheque detail its enthusiasts failed to mention.
I never think that is a good way to approach differences with people, it leads to entrenchment in opposing views and makes rapprochement more difficult.
I wouldn't get hung up on the £350m for the NHS btw because once that is allocated then your argument has nowhere else to go.
5 live did a vox pop this morning from London and everyone interviewed was furious demanding the mps get this done. The following phone in mirrored the London vox pop and it did surprise me as you would expect some dissenting voices especially in London
The media highlighting Labour's furious attempts to derail the deal is just bad politics
Labour are in danger of turning brexit into their poll tax
I understand the one nation conservatives are now firmly in the Boris camp so we have the extraordinary fact that Boris has united all parts of the party and which is in fine shape for a GE
Seriously, many leavers seem to just want a benevolent (in their eyes) dictator to "get on with it". We are an adversarial parliamentary democracy.
It is the job of parliament to legislate and government to govern. When the governing party is gifted a majority by the voting populace, they legislate as they can pass votes within their party. When refused a majority, the governing party has to work with the parliament they have.
Why ignore the democratic vote of the people that provided this split parliament? People obviously didn't trust the Tories brand of Brexit and wanted it frustrated, otherwise they wouldn't have voted how they did. May and Johnson should have reached across the aisle, not tried government by executive overreach, as they have done consistently.
In Northern Ireland meanwhile the only polls giving a majority for a united Ireland are in the event of a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, which the Boris Deal also avoids.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/prime-minister-sets-out-5-year-nhs-funding-plan
On-topic: suppose only a second referendum amendment gets tacked on. Does the Government pull the deal?
I imagined plenty of it is genuine, but also that plenty will not be Absolutely, they behaved disgracefully. Their opponents employ the same tactics and that's crappy too.
When reality hits NI is going to realise they are second class UK citizens so may as well join Ireland - I suspect that reality will be obvious by December 2020.
And Scotland will once again elect 50+ SNP MPs who will either have no say in things or be keeping Labour in power. If the former resentment will grow until the Tories lose seats and Labour take power with SNP support. And then a second referendum will be held
Hence I believe both NI and Scotland leaving the UK is now inevitable.
Bit keep looking at polls - I'm sure you can always find a sub-sub sample that proves your point.
Whenever a vox pox comes on the TV or radio I tune out. I don't care what some random bloke thinks, or worse some non-random bloke or blokess.
Indyref 2 will not have Cameron heading the "Stay together" campaign, and Labour will be unwilling to work with Conservatives on the issue. Johnson, Mogg and the current crop of leading Tories will not have the Cameroonian disposition to sway a certain section of swing voters.
If Scotland leaves the Union, the Northern Irish question becomes more existential; is the Union still the Union without Scotland? I think that question alone will lead to a border poll; add onto it any of the myriad externalities created by Brexit, and I think it is fair to say the Union is odds on to be 2 countries down within my lifetime.
Star Wars tickets booked