I'm not sure it matters if the bill passes or not now. Well obviously does but I think either scenario can work for the Tories electorally. Right now they're getting De Facto confidence and supply from ex Labour MPs, the Lib Dems and the DUP all of who dislike them but find the idea of Corbyn in power even worse !
Do not make that mistake about the DUP. They might dislike Corbyn, but if they think that Corbyn will not put a border down the Irish Sea they will support him in a heartbeat.
Remember that they held their noses and worked with Sinn Fein for years. Do you think that they could not manage to find a way to tolerate Corbyn?
Could the DUP ever trust Corbyn? Genuine question.
All things are relative. I would expect that anyone is more trustable than Johnson. Like all politicians, Corbyn may be economical with the truth and spin things, but Johnson has shown himself to be utterly untrustworthy.
If you had to choose, Corbyn might be the winner.
I suspect some wishful thinking in there. Nevertheless, thank you.
Thank you. I think their backs might be to the wall before they make that choice, but Johnson is beyond the pale.
Wow — the Conservatives are challenging strongly in Bonavista despite it going Liberal by 82% to 10% in 2015. (There's been a by-election in the meantime).
Am I right in thinking that the only solutions which don't breach the Belfast agreement are either:
EEA + CU (And it should be EEA - I would suggest the UK joins EFTA to give more power to that organisation); or EEA + FTA (very comprehensive)
Further, that any FTA between the UK and EU could actually be written very quickly in terms of physical goods (I know people say it would take a decade or more to negotiate, but that's only because those jobs for the boys won't create themselves).
The FTA needs to cover all physical goods, and have no tariffs applied on either side (non-physical stuff, like services, could be negotiated later) but broadly to me, that the only way to get a seamless border in NI.
Is there any other way?
No, you are not right. There is no clause in the Belfast Agreement that forbids a hard border, so pretty much all conceivable Brexits do not breach it.
I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .
A martyr election might suit him .
One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .
The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .
Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.
Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .
The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.
The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.
I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !
Wow — the Conservatives are challenging strongly in Bonavista despite it going Liberal by 82% to 10% in 2015. (There's been a by-election in the meantime).
The UK will be the first and only country in history to try to negotiate a more distant trade relationship with its biggest export market .
The future relationship envisaged by Johnson is a very hard Brexit, absolutely nothing on services and at least May had a much better deal for manufacturers. In the Bozo plan manufacturers are thrown under a bus .
It’s really economic vandalism of the highest order and when you have a Chancellor who thinks belief alone will lead to success then the country really is fucked !
The UK will be the first and only country in history to try to negotiate a more distant trade relationship with its biggest export market .
The future relationship envisaged by Johnson is a very hard Brexit, absolutely nothing on services and at least May had a much better deal for manufacturers. In the Bozo plan manufacturers are thrown under a bus .
It’s really economic vandalism of the highest order and when you have a Chancellor who thinks belief alone will lead to success then the country really is fucked !
Political unions have broken up in the past. You make it sound as though countries have always grown closer, never further apart.
I still can’t work out whether Johnson wants this deal to go through or not .
A martyr election might suit him .
One things for sure the DUP are going to vote for any amendment that causes the government problems .
The DUP are in big trouble if this deal goes through .
Really? I thought they weren't going to vote for the customs union amendment.
Apparently according to the lady from the Belfast Telegraph on Newsnight it’s basically all out war now .
The last straw I think was the Barclay admission at the HOL committee re customs . It’s really something when the Brexit Secretary doesn’t know what he’s negotiated.
The DUP must wreck this deal before any election , if this deal goes through before that then they’re going to be in big trouble against the UUP.
I can see why Leo Varadkar loves this deal , it’s almost a United Ireland without having to pick up the tab !
The UK will be the first and only country in history to try to negotiate a more distant trade relationship with its biggest export market .
The future relationship envisaged by Johnson is a very hard Brexit, absolutely nothing on services and at least May had a much better deal for manufacturers. In the Bozo plan manufacturers are thrown under a bus .
It’s really economic vandalism of the highest order and when you have a Chancellor who thinks belief alone will lead to success then the country really is fucked !
Political unions have broken up in the past. You make it sound as though countries have always grown closer, never further apart.
Absolutely Mike. The smugness and hubris of the Johnson/Cummings double act have been damaging beyond words. I can only conclude that they're a pair of political and intellectual lightweights who thought that aping Trump would pay dividends. Sorry children but we're a bit more sophisticated over here.
The UK will be the first and only country in history to try to negotiate a more distant trade relationship with its biggest export market .
The future relationship envisaged by Johnson is a very hard Brexit, absolutely nothing on services and at least May had a much better deal for manufacturers. In the Bozo plan manufacturers are thrown under a bus .
It’s really economic vandalism of the highest order and when you have a Chancellor who thinks belief alone will lead to success then the country really is fucked !
Political unions have broken up in the past. You make it sound as though countries have always grown closer, never further apart.
I’m not talking about political unions . The UK could leave those aspects of the EU and not harm it’s economy .
It’s the economic dislocation that’s the big issue.
The UK will be the first and only country in history to try to negotiate a more distant trade relationship with its biggest export market .
The future relationship envisaged by Johnson is a very hard Brexit, absolutely nothing on services and at least May had a much better deal for manufacturers. In the Bozo plan manufacturers are thrown under a bus .
It’s really economic vandalism of the highest order and when you have a Chancellor who thinks belief alone will lead to success then the country really is fucked !
Political unions have broken up in the past. You make it sound as though countries have always grown closer, never further apart.
I’m not talking about political unions . The UK could leave those aspects of the EU and not harm it’s economy .
It’s the economic dislocation that’s the big issue.
The breakup of said unions led to a renegotiated trade relationship that was often more distant. Any country that gained independence has done the same thing.
The UK will be the first and only country in history to try to negotiate a more distant trade relationship with its biggest export market .
The future relationship envisaged by Johnson is a very hard Brexit, absolutely nothing on services and at least May had a much better deal for manufacturers. In the Bozo plan manufacturers are thrown under a bus .
It’s really economic vandalism of the highest order and when you have a Chancellor who thinks belief alone will lead to success then the country really is fucked !
Political unions have broken up in the past. You make it sound as though countries have always grown closer, never further apart.
I’m not talking about political unions . The UK could leave those aspects of the EU and not harm it’s economy .
It’s the economic dislocation that’s the big issue.
The breakup of said unions led to a renegotiated trade relationship that was often more distant. Any country that gained independence has done the same thing.
The UK will be the first and only country in history to try to negotiate a more distant trade relationship with its biggest export market .
The future relationship envisaged by Johnson is a very hard Brexit, absolutely nothing on services and at least May had a much better deal for manufacturers. In the Bozo plan manufacturers are thrown under a bus .
It’s really economic vandalism of the highest order and when you have a Chancellor who thinks belief alone will lead to success then the country really is fucked !
Political unions have broken up in the past. You make it sound as though countries have always grown closer, never further apart.
I’m not talking about political unions . The UK could leave those aspects of the EU and not harm it’s economy .
It’s the economic dislocation that’s the big issue.
The breakup of said unions led to a renegotiated trade relationship that was often more distant. Any country that gained independence has done the same thing.
The last time I looked the UK was independent.
That doesn’t change my point. And yeah, it could always leave (or so we are told), but a whole chunk of sovereignty was transferred to Brussels.
A united Ireland is long overdue. You and your ideas are part of the problem not the solution.
Richard, I don't disagree with the fundamental endpoint of a united Ireland; I suspect it's where most reasonable people sit, including Beverley. The trouble is there are a lot headbangers in the North (and some in Scotland) who will raise merry hell. The GFA was an effective way to de-escalate the conflict, park it for a generation or three, and hope that a permanent solution would become less disruptive.
It is the Brexiteers who are blowing up the status quo. Some don't seem to care that they might end up with blood on their hands. Others indulge in unicornery. Your solution, while admirably logical and moral, is not practical.
Also Nick Watt was saying Labout thinks the numbers are moving away from them on a second referendum.
If that aveune is closed then the PLP have no other avenues to stop Brexit other than winning a general election and replacing the government?
I don't think stopping Brexit is that PLP's main goal but in theory they could replace the government without first winning an election. It's not easy, though - the numbers are tight now that the pro-deal ex-Cons have a deal to be pro.
However this will change in the event that the deal crashes and burns. (I don't think it will.)
The UK will be the first and only country in history to try to negotiate a more distant trade relationship with its biggest export market .
The future relationship envisaged by Johnson is a very hard Brexit, absolutely nothing on services and at least May had a much better deal for manufacturers. In the Bozo plan manufacturers are thrown under a bus .
It’s really economic vandalism of the highest order and when you have a Chancellor who thinks belief alone will lead to success then the country really is fucked !
Political unions have broken up in the past. You make it sound as though countries have always grown closer, never further apart.
I’m not talking about political unions . The UK could leave those aspects of the EU and not harm it’s economy .
It’s the economic dislocation that’s the big issue.
That’s immediately incorrect. The EU is also negotiating a more distant trade relationship with its biggest trading partner.
The UK will be the first and only country in history to try to negotiate a more distant trade relationship with its biggest export market .
The future relationship envisaged by Johnson is a very hard Brexit, absolutely nothing on services and at least May had a much better deal for manufacturers. In the Bozo plan manufacturers are thrown under a bus .
It’s really economic vandalism of the highest order and when you have a Chancellor who thinks belief alone will lead to success then the country really is fucked !
Political unions have broken up in the past. You make it sound as though countries have always grown closer, never further apart.
I’m not talking about political unions . The UK could leave those aspects of the EU and not harm it’s economy .
It’s the economic dislocation that’s the big issue.
That’s immediately incorrect. The EU is also negotiating a more distant trade relationship with its biggest trading partner.
In fact if they had given Cameron something when he wanted a looser relationship within the EU we would never have had to have had the referendum.
In 2019, the US is probably going to exceed the UK as the largest destination for EU (ex-UK) exports. (A consequence of a strong US Dollar and a weak GBP)
In fact if they had given Cameron something when he wanted a looser relationship within the EU we would never have had to have had the referendum.
Cameron didn't ask for a loose trading relationship. When he announced the referendum thing he said he wanted deregulation and job creation, then after the election he stuck with the referendum promise but changed the request to more control of immigration.
He was committed to the referendum either way, so it would still have been held regardless of what he'd negotiated. Arguably there were some changes which, had the EU agreed to them, would have changed the outcome of the referendum, but I think it would probably have gone the way it did whatever he'd brought back; The Leave side ran on immigration from Turkey, which the UK already had a veto on.
On topic I have to take issue with the framing of the deadline as self imposed by Johnson. You can criticise him for a lot of things but the EU and May agreed to delay until 31 October
In fact if they had given Cameron something when he wanted a looser relationship within the EU we would never have had to have had the referendum.
Cameron didn't ask for a loose trading relationship. When he announced the referendum thing he said he wanted deregulation and job creation, then after the election he stuck with the referendum promise but changed the request to more control of immigration.
He was committed to the referendum either way, so it would still have been held regardless of what he'd negotiated. Arguably there were some changes which, had the EU agreed to them, would have changed the outcome of the referendum, but I think it would probably have gone the way it did whatever he'd brought back; The Leave side ran on immigration from Turkey, which the UK already had a veto on.
I didnt say Cameron asked for a looser trading arrangement. He wanted to stay a member. You are right to say he wanted reasonable measures on deregulation, immigration and jobs. As the EU didn’t think we would vote Leave they didn’t see these proposals as a proper negotiation and therefore left Cameron out on a limb.
The UK will be the first and only country in history to try to negotiate a more distant trade relationship with its biggest export market .
The future relationship envisaged by Johnson is a very hard Brexit, absolutely nothing on services and at least May had a much better deal for manufacturers. In the Bozo plan manufacturers are thrown under a bus .
It’s really economic vandalism of the highest order and when you have a Chancellor who thinks belief alone will lead to success then the country really is fucked !
Every country that has left a larger political bloc has negotiated a more distant trade relationship with (usually) their biggest export market. There is a tradeoff between national self determination, and the centralised regulation required for a single market between nations. It was the case with the British Empire - nationalist movements prioritising their self determination before their access to British markets. Today, it's the same with the European Union - a British nationalist movement prioritising self determination over access to the Single Market.
I'm not trying to equate decolonisation with Brexit, before anyone accuses me of that; just that it clearly isn't true to state that the UK is the only country in history to try and negotiate greater political control of its affairs in exchange for weaker economic access to foreign markets.
Trying to work out which groups would prefer a GE before an exit...
I would say it would be to the LD's benefit.
Certainly the SNP's.
The Tories will be happy of course.
Labour would most certainly not be happy.
The line of least resistance to me looks like a GE rather than the WA passing.
I certainly agree SNP and LD. I certainly agree Labour DON'T want an election.
I'm not sure about the Conservatives. It could easily be seat gains for them, but they are likely to lose quite a few in Scotland (which won't help their Unionist protestations) and to the LD in the South West. Probably net seat gains, but it involves throwing about thirty MPs under a bus (a phrase used a lot lately). IF (and its a big IF) the BXP can get traction, it could all go so horribly wrong for them.
Doubt the DUP want an election. Not sure about Sinn Fein. Probably don't care. Greens and Plaid probably don't care for one either.
The UK will be the first and only country in history to try to negotiate a more distant trade relationship with its biggest export market .
The future relationship envisaged by Johnson is a very hard Brexit, absolutely nothing on services and at least May had a much better deal for manufacturers. In the Bozo plan manufacturers are thrown under a bus .
It’s really economic vandalism of the highest order and when you have a Chancellor who thinks belief alone will lead to success then the country really is fucked !
Political unions have broken up in the past. You make it sound as though countries have always grown closer, never further apart.
I’m not talking about political unions . The UK could leave those aspects of the EU and not harm it’s economy .
It’s the economic dislocation that’s the big issue.
That’s immediately incorrect. The EU is also negotiating a more distant trade relationship with its biggest trading partner.
In fact if they had given Cameron something when he wanted a looser relationship within the EU we would never have had to have had the referendum.
In 2019, the US is probably going to exceed the UK as the largest destination for EU (ex-UK) exports. (A consequence of a strong US Dollar and a weak GBP)
Yes but when the negotiations started we were the biggest. Therefore rather than being the first we are one of 28 that immediately come to mind. That said I am a pretty sure we are not the first. It might just take a while to demonstrate that in history another country past or present has negotiated a less close trading arrangement. Depending on the status of America then 1773 seems a good example. Whilst trying to push for fairer taxes and asking for better representation at a distant power the Boston tea party was in effect a terrorist act to support this aim. Discussed recently on http://revisionisthistory.com/episodes/33-tempest-in-a-teacup
Trying to work out which groups would prefer a GE before an exit...
I would say it would be to the LD's benefit.
Certainly the SNP's.
The Tories will be happy of course.
Labour would most certainly not be happy.
The line of least resistance to me looks like a GE rather than the WA passing.
I certainly agree SNP and LD. I certainly agree Labour DON'T want an election.
I'm not sure about the Conservatives. It could easily be seat gains for them, but they are likely to lose quite a few in Scotland (which won't help their Unionist protestations) and to the LD in the South West. Probably net seat gains, but it involves throwing about thirty MPs under a bus (a phrase used a lot lately). IF (and its a big IF) the BXP can get traction, it could all go so horribly wrong for them.
Doubt the DUP want an election. Not sure about Sinn Fein. Probably don't care. Greens and Plaid probably don't care for one either.
I don't think the LibDems will gain many Conservative seats in the South West. They'll probably get St Ives, and maybe they'll hold Totnes, but it's slim pickings after that.
Their chances are much better in suburban Remainia, places like Richmond Park, and in the market towns of South East England where they used to do very well.
I don't think the LibDems will gain many Conservative seats in the South West. They'll probably get St Ives, and maybe they'll hold Totnes, but it's slim pickings after that.
The key province to watch at the moment is New Brunswick, in 2011 it was very close to the national average with the Conservatives on 43% there to 39% nationally and the Liberals on 22% there to 18% nationally and the NDP on 29% there to 30% nationally. In 2015 it was more Liberal leaning but still closer to the national average than NS and NL (whose results are also coming in) which were more heavily Liberal.
Currently the voteshares in New Brunswick are Liberal 36%, Conservatives 35.6% and NDP 9% which suggests it is neck and neck nationally in the popular vote with the Liberals maybe a shade in front but nothing in it really
There's been a 14% swing in Atlantic Canada so far. If you project that across the country you get a pretty big Conservative majority.
The Conservatives won 8 seats in New Brunswick in 2011 when they last won a majority across the country and the Liberals 1 and the NDP 1. Currently the Liberals lead in 5 seats in New Brunswick, the Conservatives lead in 4 and the NDP lead in 1.
So no that suggests a hung parliament, not a Conservative majority nationwide (the Liberals are also leading in 10 seats in Nova Scotia to 1 for the Conservatives and the Liberals lead in 6 seats in Newfoundland to 0 for the Conservatives too).
There's been a 14% swing in Atlantic Canada so far. If you project that across the country you get a pretty big Conservative majority.
The Conservatives won 8 seats in New Brunswick in 2011 when they last won a majority across the country and the Liberals 1 and the NDP 1. Currently the Liberals lead in 5 seats in New Brunswick, the Conservatives lead in 4 and the NDP lead in 1.
So no that suggests a hung parliament, not a Conservative majority nationwide (the Liberals are also leading in 10 seats in Nova Scotia to 1 for the Conservatives and the Liberals lead in 6 seats in Newfoundland to 0 for the Conservatives too).
Well yes, you wouldn't project that 14% swing across the country because there are usually bigger than average swings in Atlantic Canada at each election.
There's been a 14% swing in Atlantic Canada so far. If you project that across the country you get a pretty big Conservative majority.
The Conservatives won 8 seats in New Brunswick in 2011 when they last won a majority across the country and the Liberals 1 and the NDP 1. Currently the Liberals lead in 5 seats in New Brunswick, the Conservatives lead in 4 and the NDP lead in 1.
So no that suggests a hung parliament, not a Conservative majority nationwide (the Liberals are also leading in 10 seats in Nova Scotia to 1 for the Conservatives and the Liberals lead in 6 seats in Newfoundland to 0 for the Conservatives too).
Well yes, you wouldn't project that 14% swing across the country because there are usually bigger than average swings in Atlantic Canada at each election.
The key swing provinces in Canada ie those which went Conservative in 2011 but Liberal in 2015 are New Brunswick, Ontario, Manitoba, British Columbia, Nunavut and Yukon.
So far of those we have New Brunswick in and it is neck and neck between the Conservatives and Liberals, suggesting it is tied nationally too with maybe the Liberals a fraction ahead on seats
First results from the West in Manitoba looking good for the Conservatives, currently Conservatives 43%, Liberals 14% and NDP 35%. In Alberta too, as expected the Conservatives well ahead on 70% to 13% for the NDP and just 8% for the Liberals. In Saskatchewan the Conservatives are ahead on 39% to 25% for the NDP and 23% for the Liberals.
In Quebec the Bloc Quebecois have an early lead in votes with 33% and 6 seats, the Liberals are close behind on 31% and lead on seats with 13 and the Conservatives are on 25% and 3 seats.
In the key swing province of Ontario it is close with Liberals on 38% and lead in 10 seats, with the Conservatives on 40% and ahead in 11 seats. The NDP are on 14% and ahead in 3 seats.
TV networks in both the US and Canada are far too quick to call election results IMO. We saw that in the year 2000 with Florida being called for Gore early in the night.
TV networks in both the US and Canada are far too quick to call election results IMO. We saw that in the year 2000 with Florida being called for Gore early in the night.
TV networks in both the US and Canada are far too quick to call election results IMO. We saw that in the year 2000 with Florida being called for Gore early in the night.
pb.com (& rcs in particular) called Florida for Clinton in 2016.
It is part of human nature to want to be first (& wrong).
TV networks in both the US and Canada are far too quick to call election results IMO. We saw that in the year 2000 with Florida being called for Gore early in the night.
NDP majority government nailed on?
SINGH SURGE.
It is all looking a bit 'I agree with Nick' for the NDP.
TV networks in both the US and Canada are far too quick to call election results IMO. We saw that in the year 2000 with Florida being called for Gore early in the night.
pb.com (& rcs in particular) called Florida for Clinton in 2016.
It is part of human nature to want to be first (& wrong).
Thank goodness that in the UK we actually wait for the final declaration in each constituency.
TV networks in both the US and Canada are far too quick to call election results IMO. We saw that in the year 2000 with Florida being called for Gore early in the night.
pb.com (& rcs in particular) called Florida for Clinton in 2016.
It is part of human nature to want to be first (& wrong).
Currently the Liberals lead on 138 seats to 100 Conservative, 32 BQ, 20 NDP and 1 other. So that would be Liberals largest party but without a majority
Apparently if Boris loses the timetable motion tomorrow he'll pull the bill and push for a general election.
SNP was showing some leg to Boris on an election today (yesterday) and Jezza is on record as saying he'll agree to an election if Boris sends the surrender letter (which has happened) so it looks like by this time tomorrow we could be well on our way to an election for 5th December?
Believe it when I see it
very outside chance if they guaranteed a new referendum for 2020, otherwise no chance
It'd be surprised if the Conservatives don't win the popular vote tonight. They've already matched their average latest opinion poll rating of 31.6% with just 5% counted.
CBC showing a projection for a Lib victory for a riding with fewer than 500 votes counted.
This is no way to run an election night programme. *tuts audibly*
It's how they always do it in the US and Canada.
I know, but it is annoying. Count the votes, then tell us.
Calling it for no Lib majority now. Lots of seats neck and neck.
10% of votes counted. I prefer to wait for 100%.
It is like they don't know how to fill the three desperate hours between the Canadian equivalent of Sunderland South being declared and the start of most results.
It is a broadcasting masterclass from the UK channels.
It'd be surprised if the Conservatives don't win the popular vote tonight. They've already matched their average latest opinion poll rating of 31.6% with just 5% counted.
Yes, looks like Canada 2019 could be a reversal of the US 2016 ie the Conservatives might win the popular vote but the Liberals should win most seats
I don't know how they can say Trudeau is definitely going to head a minority government when if you add up the currently projected number of seats for the Liberals, NDP and Greens you're still short of the magic 170 figure.
It'd be surprised if the Conservatives don't win the popular vote tonight. They've already matched their average latest opinion poll rating of 31.6% with just 5% counted.
Yes, looks like Canada 2019 could be a reversal of the US 2016 ie the Conservatives might win the popular vote but the Liberals should win most seats
I was convinced the opinion polls were underestimating the Conservatives at this election and it looks like that's going to happen.
Comments
Current votes:
Lib 1,825
Con 1,693
55 of 260 reporting.
https://enr.elections.ca/ElectoralDistricts.aspx?lang=e
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bonavista—Burin—Trinity#Election_results
Wait a second.......
Something to ponder .
The UK will be the first and only country in history to try to negotiate a more distant trade relationship with its biggest export market .
The future relationship envisaged by Johnson is a very hard Brexit, absolutely nothing on services and at least May had a much better deal for manufacturers. In the Bozo plan manufacturers are thrown under a bus .
It’s really economic vandalism of the highest order and when you have a Chancellor who thinks belief alone will lead to success then the country really is fucked !
At least you knew who your enemy was!
It’s the economic dislocation that’s the big issue.
I would say it would be to the LD's benefit.
Certainly the SNP's.
The Tories will be happy of course.
Labour would most certainly not be happy.
The line of least resistance to me looks like a GE rather than the WA passing.
It is the Brexiteers who are blowing up the status quo. Some don't seem to care that they might end up with blood on their hands. Others indulge in unicornery. Your solution, while admirably logical and moral, is not practical.
However this will change in the event that the deal crashes and burns. (I don't think it will.)
https://fullfact.org/europe/where-does-eu-export/#
In fact if they had given Cameron something when he wanted a looser relationship within the EU we would never have had to have had the referendum.
He was committed to the referendum either way, so it would still have been held regardless of what he'd negotiated. Arguably there were some changes which, had the EU agreed to them, would have changed the outcome of the referendum, but I think it would probably have gone the way it did whatever he'd brought back; The Leave side ran on immigration from Turkey, which the UK already had a veto on.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/47891232
Newfoundland & Labrador:
2019: (41% of polls reporting)
Lib 46.7%
Con 30.7%
2015:
Lib 64.5%
Con 10.3%
Swing: 19.1% to Con
New Brunswick:
2019: (5% of polls reporting)
Lib 39.5%
Con 34.5%
2015:
Lib 51.6%
Con 25.3%
Swing: 10.6% to Con
Nova Scotia:
2019: (6% of polls reporting)
Lib 37.6%
Con 33.1%
2015:
Lib 61.9%
Con 17.9%
Swing: 19.7% to Con
Prince Edward Island:
2019: (10% of polls reporting)
Lib 44.6%
Con 29.3%
2015:
Lib 58.3%
Con 19.3%
Swing: 11.8% to Con
Liberals 24
Conservatives 6
NDP 1
Voteshares
Liberals 43.5%
Conservatives 30.8%
NDP 16.9%
21% in (but so far only Liberal leading Atlantic Canada)
I'm not trying to equate decolonisation with Brexit, before anyone accuses me of that; just that it clearly isn't true to state that the UK is the only country in history to try and negotiate greater political control of its affairs in exchange for weaker economic access to foreign markets.
I certainly agree Labour DON'T want an election.
I'm not sure about the Conservatives. It could easily be seat gains for them, but they are likely to lose quite a few in Scotland (which won't help their Unionist protestations) and to the LD in the South West. Probably net seat gains, but it involves throwing about thirty MPs under a bus (a phrase used a lot lately).
IF (and its a big IF) the BXP can get traction, it could all go so horribly wrong for them.
Doubt the DUP want an election. Not sure about Sinn Fein. Probably don't care.
Greens and Plaid probably don't care for one either.
http://revisionisthistory.com/episodes/33-tempest-in-a-teacup
Their chances are much better in suburban Remainia, places like Richmond Park, and in the market towns of South East England where they used to do very well.
Currently the voteshares in New Brunswick are Liberal 36%, Conservatives 35.6% and NDP 9% which suggests it is neck and neck nationally in the popular vote with the Liberals maybe a shade in front but nothing in it really
The result in 2015 in Atlantic Canada was:
Lib 58.8%
Con 19.0%
NDP 17.9%
Grn 3.5%
Latest result (with about 50% reporting):
Lib 41.9%
Con 30.0%
NDP 16.7%
Grn 9.3%
Changes:
Lib -16.9%
Con +11.0%
NDP -1.2%
Grn+5.8%
So no that suggests a hung parliament, not a Conservative majority nationwide (the Liberals are also leading in 10 seats in Nova Scotia to 1 for the Conservatives and the Liberals lead in 6 seats in Newfoundland to 0 for the Conservatives too).
Thanks for the updates.
So far of those we have New Brunswick in and it is neck and neck between the Conservatives and Liberals, suggesting it is tied nationally too with maybe the Liberals a fraction ahead on seats
Come on, MPs, give us an election. I need some psephological fun.
Followed by everyone in my living room going 'WHAT THE HELL IS THAT?'. Ah, 2017.
In Quebec the Bloc Quebecois have an early lead in votes with 33% and 6 seats, the Liberals are close behind on 31% and lead on seats with 13 and the Conservatives are on 25% and 3 seats.
In the key swing province of Ontario it is close with Liberals on 38% and lead in 10 seats, with the Conservatives on 40% and ahead in 11 seats. The NDP are on 14% and ahead in 3 seats.
https://enr.elections.ca/Provinces.aspx?lang=e
They do that Yank thing of calling seats after a fraction of the votes have been counted, which is irritating.
Yes, they start calling seats asap, hence the seat count total is going up and down like a fiddler's elbow.
Bloc Quebecois back in a big way.
It is part of human nature to want to be first (& wrong).
It is all looking a bit 'I agree with Nick' for the NDP.
https://enr.elections.ca/Provinces.aspx?lang=e
This is no way to run an election night programme. *tuts audibly*
About 90% of votes haven't been counted yet.
https://enr.elections.ca/Provinces.aspx?lang=e
Calling it for no Lib majority now. Lots of seats neck and neck.
https://enr.elections.ca/Provinces.aspx?lang=e
https://enr.elections.ca/Provinces.aspx?lang=e
https://enr.elections.ca/Provinces.aspx?lang=e
It is a broadcasting masterclass from the UK channels.
Lib 35.4%
Con 32.5%
NDP 14.4%
BQ 7.7%
Grn 7.6%
PPC 1.6%
https://enr.elections.ca/National.aspx?lang=e
Conservatives lead in 11 seats there to 7 each for the Liberals and NDP
https://enr.elections.ca/Provinces.aspx?lang=e
82% of votes still to be counted.