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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A 3% return in a little over two months?

SystemSystem Posts: 12,556
edited October 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A 3% return in a little over two months?

This market from Paddy Power seems to me a guaranteed way to get a 3% return in a little over two months.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,052
    edited October 2019
    Second!

    Like the Ref which will not be happening at any time, let alone 2019.

    EDIT -

    Has been my best political betting market, this one. A great lay. It was trading at around 3 at one time a few months ago.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Remainers are trying to constantly misrepresent the deal. A border is the separation between two territories. Northern Ireland will be in the UK's Customs Territory, paying UK tariffs arrangements. There will be checks in GB and NI ports (although not for households) but not a border.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,037
    justin124 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Johnson's majority for the deal is already slipping away.

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1185847410720985090

    I did say to keep an eye on Skinner. He is a Eurosceptic who wants to leave the EU but viscerally hates Tories and could spontaneously combust if he walked into an AYE lobby with a Tory government.
    To repeat a view I recently expressed, Labour MPs who vote in favour of Johnson's Deal will find themselves behaving in the same way as a Jewish member of the Reichstag voting for Hitler's Enabling Act in March 1933.
    I am minded to email a few of them to that effect.
    That will help the person screening their emails to know to put it immediately in the junk mail folder then.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,092
    Gabs2 said:

    Remainers are trying to constantly misrepresent the deal. A border is the separation between two territories. Northern Ireland will be in the UK's Customs Territory, paying UK tariffs arrangements. There will be checks in GB and NI ports (although not for households) but not a border.

    The DUP are Remainers?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,037
    edited October 2019
    williamglenn said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Remainers are trying to constantly misrepresent the deal. A border is the separation between two territories. Northern Ireland will be in the UK's Customs Territory, paying UK tariffs arrangements. There will be checks in GB and NI ports (although not for households) but not a border.

    The DUP are Remainers?
    They will be very soon, in effect.

    They are whipping themselves up into a grievance cascade, which will justify doing anything to punish Boris. Whinging is what they love best.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,037
    FPT:
    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    So what do the EU do if parliament votes for a referendum amendment? Say 'tough, you've got one more week'?

    Unless there is appetite to put Jeremy Corbyn in as PM for long enough to deliver it, insisting on a Ref2 means GE. Which as things stand probably means Con majority and back to this Deal.
    What other choice is there? Remain has to do something in the next few weeks or leave wins. As Saturday shows, deferring the decision in the hope something will come up is a very viable path for them. Probable defeat tomorrow beats certain defeat today.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Johnson's majority for the deal is already slipping away.

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1185847410720985090

    I did say to keep an eye on Skinner. He is a Eurosceptic who wants to leave the EU but viscerally hates Tories and could spontaneously combust if he walked into an AYE lobby with a Tory government.
    To repeat a view I recently expressed, Labour MPs who vote in favour of Johnson's Deal will find themselves behaving in the same way as a Jewish member of the Reichstag voting for Hitler's Enabling Act in March 1933.
    I am minded to email a few of them to that effect.
    That will help the person screening their emails to know to put it immediately in the junk mail folder then.
    Cant imagine why anyone would want to not on,y make but then repeat their spectacularly wrongheaded Jews in the Reichstag analogy!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,623
    kle4 said:

    williamglenn said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Remainers are trying to constantly misrepresent the deal. A border is the separation between two territories. Northern Ireland will be in the UK's Customs Territory, paying UK tariffs arrangements. There will be checks in GB and NI ports (although not for households) but not a border.

    The DUP are Remainers?
    They will be very soon, in effect.

    They are whipping themselves up into a grievance cascade, which will justify doing anything to punish Boris. Whinging is what they love best.
    The DUP made the former IRA Chief of Staff Deputy First Minister, they can make Jeremy Corbyn PM in their anger.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kle4 said:

    FPT:

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    So what do the EU do if parliament votes for a referendum amendment? Say 'tough, you've got one more week'?

    Unless there is appetite to put Jeremy Corbyn in as PM for long enough to deliver it, insisting on a Ref2 means GE. Which as things stand probably means Con majority and back to this Deal.
    What other choice is there? Remain has to do something in the next few weeks or leave wins. As Saturday shows, deferring the decision in the hope something will come up is a very viable path for them. Probable defeat tomorrow beats certain defeat today.
    Leave won. 17.4m votes said so.

    Just a case of Remainers getting past the first stage of grief. They've been stuck in the first stage for a while.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Gabs2 said:

    'What a disgusting racist thing to say. This is a classic example of rampant anti-Semitism in the Labour Party. Labour MPs under a Tory government are ABSOLUTELY NOTHING LIKE the Jews in Nazi Germany. Six million of us were deliberately slaughtered in the biggest genocide in human history. You are a stain of a human being.'

    Don't be so stupid! Those Labour MPs would be enhancing the agenda and electoral interests of a thoroughly evil man who will bring misery to those they claim to represent.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    justin124 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Johnson's majority for the deal is already slipping away.

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1185847410720985090

    I did say to keep an eye on Skinner. He is a Eurosceptic who wants to leave the EU but viscerally hates Tories and could spontaneously combust if he walked into an AYE lobby with a Tory government.
    Labour MPs who vote in favour of Johnson's Deal will find themselves behaving in the same way as a Jewish member of the Reichstag voting for Hitler's Enabling Act in March 1933.
    I am minded to email a few of them to that effect.
    I will be interested in the replies you get.

    Will you be emailing to Labour MPs in general, or just Jewish ones?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    williamglenn said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Remainers are trying to constantly misrepresent the deal. A border is the separation between two territories. Northern Ireland will be in the UK's Customs Territory, paying UK tariffs arrangements. There will be checks in GB and NI ports (although not for households) but not a border.

    The DUP are Remainers?
    They will be very soon, in effect.

    They are whipping themselves up into a grievance cascade, which will justify doing anything to punish Boris. Whinging is what they love best.
    The DUP made the former IRA Chief of Staff Deputy First Minister, they can make Jeremy Corbyn PM in their anger.

    And if they're keen on referendums, I'm sure there are others that can be thought of.....
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    justin124 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    'What a disgusting racist thing to say. This is a classic example of rampant anti-Semitism in the Labour Party. Labour MPs under a Tory government are ABSOLUTELY NOTHING LIKE the Jews in Nazi Germany. Six million of us were deliberately slaughtered in the biggest genocide in human history. You are a stain of a human being.'

    Don't be so stupid! Those Labour MPs would be enhancing the agenda and electoral interests of a thoroughly evil man who will bring misery to those they claim to represent.

    Go on then Justin, you email them and tell them they are like Jews in the Reichstag. And then sit by your front door waiting for the rozzers to knock
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,052
    edited October 2019
    kle4 said:

    What other choice is there? Remain has to do something in the next few weeks or leave wins. As Saturday shows, deferring the decision in the hope something will come up is a very viable path for them. Probable defeat tomorrow beats certain defeat today.

    Remain's best shot is to replace Johnson with Corbyn and support that temporary administration for long enough to deliver Ref2 on the Johnson Deal. 10% chance at best of pulling that off IMO.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,037
    Philip_Thompson said:

    kle4 said:

    FPT:

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    So what do the EU do if parliament votes for a referendum amendment? Say 'tough, you've got one more week'?

    Unless there is appetite to put Jeremy Corbyn in as PM for long enough to deliver it, insisting on a Ref2 means GE. Which as things stand probably means Con majority and back to this Deal.
    What other choice is there? Remain has to do something in the next few weeks or leave wins. As Saturday shows, deferring the decision in the hope something will come up is a very viable path for them. Probable defeat tomorrow beats certain defeat today.
    Leave won. 17.4m votes said so.

    Just a case of Remainers getting past the first stage of grief. They've been stuck in the first stage for a while.
    Remain MPs won't get past that first stage until they believe victory is impossible. Boris might have the votes to make them realise that next week, or the week after. But until then they will try anything - the DUP have come on board and will now be acceptable to work with, I imagine Swinson will soon drop the objection to working with Corbyn, people who don't a referendum but really really don't want to leave will finally be forced to pick the former to avoid the latter.

    Will it be enough? I think it will, but it is very close. Boris has proven cannier than many of gave him credit for (even if some will say only in his ruthlessness is ditching the DUP) and gotten his deal, and if he is careful and smart he can carry the votes. But it will be a knock down fight on many amendments.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    CarlottaVance said:

    justin124 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Johnson's majority for the deal is already slipping away.

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1185847410720985090

    I did say to keep an eye on Skinner. He is a Eurosceptic who wants to leave the EU but viscerally hates Tories and could spontaneously combust if he walked into an AYE lobby with a Tory government.
    Labour MPs who vote in favour of Johnson's Deal will find themselves behaving in the same way as a Jewish member of the Reichstag voting for Hitler's Enabling Act in March 1933.
    I am minded to email a few of them to that effect.
    I will be interested in the replies you get.

    Will you be emailing to Labour MPs in general, or just Jewish ones?
    Only the likely rebels.It is bonkers to describe such a message as Anti- Semitic. Indeed - it is really the opposite . Any Jewish or Communist or Socialist member of the Reichstag would have been completely mad to support the Enabling Act.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    justin124 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    justin124 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Johnson's majority for the deal is already slipping away.

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1185847410720985090

    I did say to keep an eye on Skinner. He is a Eurosceptic who wants to leave the EU but viscerally hates Tories and could spontaneously combust if he walked into an AYE lobby with a Tory government.
    Labour MPs who vote in favour of Johnson's Deal will find themselves behaving in the same way as a Jewish member of the Reichstag voting for Hitler's Enabling Act in March 1933.
    I am minded to email a few of them to that effect.
    I will be interested in the replies you get.

    Will you be emailing to Labour MPs in general, or just Jewish ones?
    Only the likely rebels.
    How many of them are Jewish?
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    edited October 2019
    justin124 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    'What a disgusting racist thing to say. This is a classic example of rampant anti-Semitism in the Labour Party. Labour MPs under a Tory government are ABSOLUTELY NOTHING LIKE the Jews in Nazi Germany. Six million of us were deliberately slaughtered in the biggest genocide in human history. You are a stain of a human being.'

    Don't be so stupid! Those Labour MPs would be enhancing the agenda and electoral interests of a thoroughly evil man who will bring misery to those they claim to represent.

    I am not being stupid. I am someone who has had three grandparents die in the Holocaust. You are a disgusting human using the suffering of my people to make banal political points for partisan advantage.

    And of course you are just the type to turn around and claim there is no anti-Semitism in Corbynism.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    dyedwoolie said:

    justin124 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    'What a disgusting racist thing to say. This is a classic example of rampant anti-Semitism in the Labour Party. Labour MPs under a Tory government are ABSOLUTELY NOTHING LIKE the Jews in Nazi Germany. Six million of us were deliberately slaughtered in the biggest genocide in human history. You are a stain of a human being.'

    Don't be so stupid! Those Labour MPs would be enhancing the agenda and electoral interests of a thoroughly evil man who will bring misery to those they claim to represent.

    Go on then Justin, you email them and tell them they are like Jews in the Reichstag. And then sit by your front door waiting for the rozzers to knock
    Are you suggesting that it would have been anything other than mad for a member of the Reichstag who happened to be Jewish to vote for that Enabling Act? Ditto Communists and Socialists.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    CarlottaVance said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    williamglenn said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Remainers are trying to constantly misrepresent the deal. A border is the separation between two territories. Northern Ireland will be in the UK's Customs Territory, paying UK tariffs arrangements. There will be checks in GB and NI ports (although not for households) but not a border.

    The DUP are Remainers?
    They will be very soon, in effect.

    They are whipping themselves up into a grievance cascade, which will justify doing anything to punish Boris. Whinging is what they love best.
    The DUP made the former IRA Chief of Staff Deputy First Minister, they can make Jeremy Corbyn PM in their anger.

    And if they're keen on referendums, I'm sure there are others that can be thought of.....
    I suspect that is pretty likely with a Corbyn government and he can't be trusted otherwise.

    Imagine a border poll with the UK and Irish governments in favour of reunification? And a Tory Party thoroughly pissed off at the DUP?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,037
    On topic, yeah, surprised the market is still up even at those odds.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    kle4 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    kle4 said:

    FPT:

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    So what do the EU do if parliament votes for a referendum amendment? Say 'tough, you've got one more week'?

    Unless there is appetite to put Jeremy Corbyn in as PM for long enough to deliver it, insisting on a Ref2 means GE. Which as things stand probably means Con majority and back to this Deal.
    What other choice is there? Remain has to do something in the next few weeks or leave wins. As Saturday shows, deferring the decision in the hope something will come up is a very viable path for them. Probable defeat tomorrow beats certain defeat today.
    Leave won. 17.4m votes said so.

    Just a case of Remainers getting past the first stage of grief. They've been stuck in the first stage for a while.
    Remain MPs won't get past that first stage until they believe victory is impossible.
    They've been getting their own way for nigh on half a century - no wonder it's taking time to adapt.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    justin124 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    justin124 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Johnson's majority for the deal is already slipping away.

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1185847410720985090

    I did say to keep an eye on Skinner. He is a Eurosceptic who wants to leave the EU but viscerally hates Tories and could spontaneously combust if he walked into an AYE lobby with a Tory government.
    Labour MPs who vote in favour of Johnson's Deal will find themselves behaving in the same way as a Jewish member of the Reichstag voting for Hitler's Enabling Act in March 1933.
    I am minded to email a few of them to that effect.
    I will be interested in the replies you get.

    Will you be emailing to Labour MPs in general, or just Jewish ones?
    Only the likely rebels.It is bonkers to describe such a message as Anti- Semitic. Indeed - it is really the opposite . Any Jewish or Communist or Socialist member of the Reichstag would have been completely mad to support the Enabling Act.
    Yeah, you are actually pushing a pro-Jewish message here. Jewish people should welcome it unless they are ungrateful fools.

    My God, Labour is now so awash in anti-Semitism, their supporters can't even recognize it any more.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,092
    CarlottaVance said:

    kle4 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    kle4 said:

    FPT:

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    So what do the EU do if parliament votes for a referendum amendment? Say 'tough, you've got one more week'?

    Unless there is appetite to put Jeremy Corbyn in as PM for long enough to deliver it, insisting on a Ref2 means GE. Which as things stand probably means Con majority and back to this Deal.
    What other choice is there? Remain has to do something in the next few weeks or leave wins. As Saturday shows, deferring the decision in the hope something will come up is a very viable path for them. Probable defeat tomorrow beats certain defeat today.
    Leave won. 17.4m votes said so.

    Just a case of Remainers getting past the first stage of grief. They've been stuck in the first stage for a while.
    Remain MPs won't get past that first stage until they believe victory is impossible.
    They've been getting their own way for nigh on half a century - no wonder it's taking time to adapt.
    Why are we not in the Euro then?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    justin124 said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    justin124 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    'What a disgusting racist thing to say. This is a classic example of rampant anti-Semitism in the Labour Party. Labour MPs under a Tory government are ABSOLUTELY NOTHING LIKE the Jews in Nazi Germany. Six million of us were deliberately slaughtered in the biggest genocide in human history. You are a stain of a human being.'

    Don't be so stupid! Those Labour MPs would be enhancing the agenda and electoral interests of a thoroughly evil man who will bring misery to those they claim to represent.

    Go on then Justin, you email them and tell them they are like Jews in the Reichstag. And then sit by your front door waiting for the rozzers to knock
    a member of the Reichstag who happened to be Jewish
    How many of them were?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    There go Bruno's Remainer friends!

    https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/1185912626691346432?s=20
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    CarlottaVance said:

    justin124 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    justin124 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Johnson's majority for the deal is already slipping away.

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1185847410720985090

    I did say to keep an eye on Skinner. He is a Eurosceptic who wants to leave the EU but viscerally hates Tories and could spontaneously combust if he walked into an AYE lobby with a Tory government.
    Labour MPs who vote in favour of Johnson's Deal will find themselves behaving in the same way as a Jewish member of the Reichstag voting for Hitler's Enabling Act in March 1933.
    I am minded to email a few of them to that effect.
    I will be interested in the replies you get.

    Will you be emailing to Labour MPs in general, or just Jewish ones?
    Only the likely rebels.
    How many of them are Jewish?
    Absolutely no idea. But in what way can such a statement be construed as being anti- semitic? The point is that those most at risk from the Nazis should have been the last people to open the door to such evil.Far from doing that, they should have acted in every way possible to defend themselves.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited October 2019
    justin124 said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    justin124 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    'What a disgusting racist thing to say. This is a classic example of rampant anti-Semitism in the Labour Party. Labour MPs under a Tory government are ABSOLUTELY NOTHING LIKE the Jews in Nazi Germany. Six million of us were deliberately slaughtered in the biggest genocide in human history. You are a stain of a human being.'

    Don't be so stupid! Those Labour MPs would be enhancing the agenda and electoral interests of a thoroughly evil man who will bring misery to those they claim to represent.

    Go on then Justin, you email them and tell them they are like Jews in the Reichstag. And then sit by your front door waiting for the rozzers to knock
    Are you suggesting that it would have been anything other than mad for a member of the Reichstag who happened to be Jewish to vote for that Enabling Act? Ditto Communists and Socialists.
    Like I said, you send the emails and see what happens. And you didn't pick communists and socialists did you? You picked Jews. We can all make up our minds as to why.
    Edit - and you repeated it having said it days ago. That speaks volumes
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    justin124 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    justin124 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    justin124 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Johnson's majority for the deal is already slipping away.

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1185847410720985090

    I did say to keep an eye on Skinner. He is a Eurosceptic who wants to leave the EU but viscerally hates Tories and could spontaneously combust if he walked into an AYE lobby with a Tory government.
    Labour MPs who vote in favour of Johnson's Deal will find themselves behaving in the same way as a Jewish member of the Reichstag voting for Hitler's Enabling Act in March 1933.
    I am minded to email a few of them to that effect.
    I will be interested in the replies you get.

    Will you be emailing to Labour MPs in general, or just Jewish ones?
    Only the likely rebels.
    How many of them are Jewish?
    Absolutely no idea.
    Then perhaps a little research before you email them might be wise?

    Post a list of names and I'm sure the PB Brains Trust will advise....
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    dyedwoolie said:

    justin124 said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    justin124 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    'What a disgusting racist thing to say. This is a classic example of rampant anti-Semitism in the Labour Party. Labour MPs under a Tory government are ABSOLUTELY NOTHING LIKE the Jews in Nazi Germany. Six million of us were deliberately slaughtered in the biggest genocide in human history. You are a stain of a human being.'

    Don't be so stupid! Those Labour MPs would be enhancing the agenda and electoral interests of a thoroughly evil man who will bring misery to those they claim to represent.

    Go on then Justin, you email them and tell them they are like Jews in the Reichstag. And then sit by your front door waiting for the rozzers to knock
    Are you suggesting that it would have been anything other than mad for a member of the Reichstag who happened to be Jewish to vote for that Enabling Act? Ditto Communists and Socialists.
    Like I said, you send the emails and see what happens. And you didn't pick communists and socialists did you? You picked Jews. We can all make up our minds as to why.
    I mentioned the Jews because they were the most obvious victims - and had most to fear. The Communists , Socialists , Trade Unionists , homosexuals were also obviously in great danger.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    What other choice is there? Remain has to do something in the next few weeks or leave wins. As Saturday shows, deferring the decision in the hope something will come up is a very viable path for them. Probable defeat tomorrow beats certain defeat today.

    Remain's best shot is to replace Johnson with Corbyn and support that temporary administration for long enough to deliver Ref2 on the Johnson Deal. 10% chance at best of pulling that off IMO.
    One excellent thing the Boris Deal has done is to destroy the idea that MPs need to install Corbyn to avoid No Deal. While No Deal was still a threat, he had perhaps a 25% chance of becoming emergency PM. Now if Parliament installs Corbyn it's because they actually want him in charge, and there ain't no majority for that!
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,180
    The shine has definitely started to come off Boris's deal. There was a mad panic yesterday and many were swept up in the moment. In the cold light of day, it's looking more like an ill-conceived and destabilizing hotchpotch whose only real purpose was to secure Boris some crazily sycophantic headlines. Sir Oliver is proving to be a wise old head. We need to consider these matters calmly.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,720
    CarlottaVance said:

    kle4 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    kle4 said:

    FPT:

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    So what do the EU do if parliament votes for a referendum amendment? Say 'tough, you've got one more week'?

    Unless there is appetite to put Jeremy Corbyn in as PM for long enough to deliver it, insisting on a Ref2 means GE. Which as things stand probably means Con majority and back to this Deal.
    What other choice is there? Remain has to do something in the next few weeks or leave wins. As Saturday shows, deferring the decision in the hope something will come up is a very viable path for them. Probable defeat tomorrow beats certain defeat today.
    Leave won. 17.4m votes said so.

    Just a case of Remainers getting past the first stage of grief. They've been stuck in the first stage for a while.
    Remain MPs won't get past that first stage until they believe victory is impossible.
    They've been getting their own way for nigh on half a century - no wonder it's taking time to adapt.
    I thought you were talking about the DUP there - they and their forbears have been getting their way in Northern Ireland since at least the 1600s and arguably the 1100s...
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    Stark_Dawning said:

    The shine has definitely started to come off Boris's deal. There was a mad panic yesterday and many were swept up in the moment. In the cold light of day, it's looking more like an ill-conceived and destabilizing hotchpotch whose only real purpose was to secure Boris some crazily sycophantic headlines. Sir Oliver is proving to be a wise old head. We need to consider these matters calmly.

    Let's have an election and we can find out just how popular these stalling tactics really are, eh?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,037
    Stark_Dawning said:

    The shine has definitely started to come off Boris's deal. There was a mad panic yesterday and many were swept up in the moment. In the cold light of day, it's looking more like an ill-conceived and destabilizing hotchpotch whose only real purpose was to secure Boris some crazily sycophantic headlines. Sir Oliver is proving to be a wise old head. We need to consider these matters calmly.

    Except Sir Oliver wants it to pass, so he is not wise if the delay prevents that.

    That the legislation deserved and deserves proper scrutiny is of course true, but one does have to question how much scrutiny will be going on vs simply trying to defeat it/change it beyond all recognition. Which are legitimate aims, but scrutiny it is not.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    CarlottaVance said:

    justin124 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    justin124 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    justin124 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Johnson's majority for the deal is already slipping away.

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1185847410720985090

    I did say to keep an eye on Skinner. He is a Eurosceptic who wants to leave the EU but viscerally hates Tories and could spontaneously combust if he walked into an AYE lobby with a Tory government.
    Labour MPs who vote in favour of Johnson's Deal will find themselves behaving in the same way as a Jewish member of the Reichstag voting for Hitler's Enabling Act in March 1933.
    I am minded to email a few of them to that effect.
    I will be interested in the replies you get.

    Will you be emailing to Labour MPs in general, or just Jewish ones?
    Only the likely rebels.
    How many of them are Jewish?
    Absolutely no idea.
    Then perhaps a little research before you email them might be wise?

    Post a list of names and I'm sure the PB Brains Trust will advise....
    Having had the response of people here, I might amend to include Communists , Socialists etc.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    justin124 said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    justin124 said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    justin124 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    'What a disgusting racist thing to say. This is a classic example of rampant anti-Semitism in the Labour Party. Labour MPs under a Tory government are ABSOLUTELY NOTHING LIKE the Jews in Nazi Germany. Six million of us were deliberately slaughtered in the biggest genocide in human history. You are a stain of a human being.'

    Don't be so stupid! Those Labour MPs would be enhancing the agenda and electoral interests of a thoroughly evil man who will bring misery to those they claim to represent.

    Go on then Justin, you email them and tell them they are like Jews in the Reichstag. And then sit by your front door waiting for the rozzers to knock
    Are you suggesting that it would have been anything other than mad for a member of the Reichstag who happened to be Jewish to vote for that Enabling Act? Ditto Communists and Socialists.
    Like I said, you send the emails and see what happens. And you didn't pick communists and socialists did you? You picked Jews. We can all make up our minds as to why.
    I mentioned the Jews because they were the most obvious victims - and had most to fear. The Communists , Socialists , Trade Unionists , homosexuals were also obviously in great danger.
    Like I said, we know what you said and can draw our own conclusions. You should withdraw the analogy in my opinion and apologise but there's really nothing more to discuss
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,779
    Philip_Thompson said:

    kle4 said:

    FPT:

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    So what do the EU do if parliament votes for a referendum amendment? Say 'tough, you've got one more week'?

    Unless there is appetite to put Jeremy Corbyn in as PM for long enough to deliver it, insisting on a Ref2 means GE. Which as things stand probably means Con majority and back to this Deal.
    What other choice is there? Remain has to do something in the next few weeks or leave wins. As Saturday shows, deferring the decision in the hope something will come up is a very viable path for them. Probable defeat tomorrow beats certain defeat today.
    Leave won. 17.4m votes said so.

    Just a case of Remainers getting past the first stage of grief. They've been stuck in the first stage for a while.
    Leave lost even more so as they are not getting what was promised. Leavers are getting a deal with gives the CJEU a say in the United Kingdom's internal market, internal customs controls within the UK, a border that will be policed by a secret committee half appointed by the EU. I didn't read any of that in the Leave manifesto.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    edited October 2019
    https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1185875206142939136?s=20

    I suspect Mr Powell is mistaken - the DUP are in the "Do [you] feel lucky? Do you punk?" territory....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,092
    CarlottaVance said:

    There go Bruno's Remainer friends!

    https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/1185912626691346432?s=20

    Bruno's an ardent lefty Brexiteer.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uD_aMZ6moxE
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,830
    williamglenn said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Remainers are trying to constantly misrepresent the deal. A border is the separation between two territories. Northern Ireland will be in the UK's Customs Territory, paying UK tariffs arrangements. There will be checks in GB and NI ports (although not for households) but not a border.

    The DUP are Remainers?
    If you ignore words and look at deeds there is no doubt DUP are for Remain.

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited October 2019
    Gabs2 said:

    justin124 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    justin124 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    williamglenn said:

    Johnson's majority for the deal is already slipping away.

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1185847410720985090

    I did say to keep an eye on Skinner. He is a Eurosceptic who wants to leave the EU but viscerally hates Tories and could spontaneously combust if he walked into an AYE lobby with a Tory government.
    Labour MPs who vote in favour of Johnson's Deal will find themselves behaving in the same way as a Jewish member of the Reichstag voting for Hitler's Enabling Act in March 1933.
    I am minded to email a few of them to that effect.
    I will be interested in the replies you get.

    Will you be emailing to Labour MPs in general, or just Jewish ones?
    Only the likely rebels.It is bonkers to describe such a message as Anti- Semitic. Indeed - it is really the opposite . Any Jewish or Communist or Socialist member of the Reichstag would have been completely mad to support the Enabling Act.
    Yeah, you are actually pushing a pro-Jewish message here. Jewish people should welcome it unless they are ungrateful fools.

    My God, Labour is now so awash in anti-Semitism, their supporters can't even recognize it any more.
    Margaret Hodge made use of a similar analogy. We can safely assume she is not antisemitic. The thing is, the zeitgeist has changed so that some things which might previously have been regarded as wrong but harmless are now seen as antisemitic. Maybe the traditional turkeys voting for Christmas might be safer, or trades unionists voting for Mrs Thatcher.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    dyedwoolie said:

    justin124 said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    justin124 said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    justin124 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    'What a disgusting racist thing to say. This is a classic example of rampant anti-Semitism in the Labour Party. Labour MPs under a Tory government are ABSOLUTELY NOTHING LIKE the Jews in Nazi Germany. Six million of us were deliberately slaughtered in the biggest genocide in human history. You are a stain of a human being.'

    Don't be so stupid! Those Labour MPs would be enhancing the agenda and electoral interests of a thoroughly evil man who will bring misery to those they claim to represent.

    Go on then Justin, you email them and tell them they are like Jews in the Reichstag. And then sit by your front door waiting for the rozzers to knock
    Are you suggesting that it would have been anything other than mad for a member of the Reichstag who happened to be Jewish to vote for that Enabling Act? Ditto Communists and Socialists.
    Like I said, you send the emails and see what happens. And you didn't pick communists and socialists did you? You picked Jews. We can all make up our minds as to why.
    I mentioned the Jews because they were the most obvious victims - and had most to fear. The Communists , Socialists , Trade Unionists , homosexuals were also obviously in great danger.
    Like I said, we know what you said and can draw our own conclusions. You should withdraw the analogy in my opinion and apologise but there's really nothing more to discuss
    I am actually a member of the Jewish Labour Movement - though have not been a party member since the end of 1996. I joined 2 years ago specifically to support those seeking to root out anti-semitism in the party.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,180
    kle4 said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    The shine has definitely started to come off Boris's deal. There was a mad panic yesterday and many were swept up in the moment. In the cold light of day, it's looking more like an ill-conceived and destabilizing hotchpotch whose only real purpose was to secure Boris some crazily sycophantic headlines. Sir Oliver is proving to be a wise old head. We need to consider these matters calmly.

    Except Sir Oliver wants it to pass, so he is not wise if the delay prevents that.

    That the legislation deserved and deserves proper scrutiny is of course true, but one does have to question how much scrutiny will be going on vs simply trying to defeat it/change it beyond all recognition. Which are legitimate aims, but scrutiny it is not.
    Sir Oliver isn't claiming omniscience. Whatever his personal preference, he knows that only a broad and rigorous analysis will determine whether Boris's deal satisfies the requirements of all concerned parties. He may even have second thoughts himself once the analysis is concluded and will be entitled to do so.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited October 2019
    Unfortunately, I think the Customs Union amendment passing is unlikely. The Lib Dems and a few ultra-Remain Labour MPs (David Lammy, etc.) are going to start squawking about how they won't dirty their hands by voting for any form of Brexit, and thus they'll end up with their worst scenario because of their refusal to compromise.

    My guess is the deal goes through, unamended, but a bit after the 31st Oct, and after the extension has kicked in. And we don't get an election for atleast another year.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    justin124 said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    justin124 said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    justin124 said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    justin124 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    'What a disgusting racist thing to say. This is a classic example of rampant anti-Semitism in the Labour Party. Labour MPs under a Tory government are ABSOLUTELY NOTHING LIKE the Jews in Nazi Germany. Six million of us were deliberately slaughtered in the biggest genocide in human history. You are a stain of a human being.'

    Don't be so stupid! Those Labour MPs would be enhancing the agenda and electoral interests of a thoroughly evil man who will bring misery to those they claim to represent.

    Go on then Justin, you email them and tell them they are like Jews in the Reichstag. And then sit by your front door waiting for the rozzers to knock
    Are you suggesting that it would have been anything other than mad for a member of the Reichstag who happened to be Jewish to vote for that Enabling Act? Ditto Communists and Socialists.
    Like I said, you send the emails and see what happens. And you didn't pick communists and socialists did you? You picked Jews. We can all make up our minds as to why.
    I mentioned the Jews because they were the most obvious victims - and had most to fear. The Communists , Socialists , Trade Unionists , homosexuals were also obviously in great danger.
    Like I said, we know what you said and can draw our own conclusions. You should withdraw the analogy in my opinion and apologise but there's really nothing more to discuss
    I am actually a member of the Jewish Labour Movement - though have not been a party member since the end of 1996. I joined 2 years ago specifically to support those seeking to root out anti-semitism in the party.
    Then I am surprised you do not see the problem with what you wrote (twice)
    But there we go, it's been said, you stand by it, the world moves on.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,606
    The DUP will never support Corbyn as PM even for one day but they would VONC to just force an election .

    The DUP are under huge pressure from the UUP, if the deal goes through then they’ll still going to be blamed to some extent .

    The problem is it’s not in Labours interests to have an election given their dire polling numbers .

    Aswell as this the Lib Dems will have a clean slate , all their MPs will have voted against the deal .

    Swinson will clearly point out that Corbyn always wanted Brexit and has gone easy on Labour MPs voting for the deal.

    There are no good options for Labour only degrees of awfulness .
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,623
    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1185875206142939136?s=20

    I suspect Mr Powell is mistaken - the DUP are in the "Do [you] feel lucky? Do you punk?" territory....

    Gosh, it is lucky that Boris Johnson didn't use terms like 'The Surrender Bill' or saying a border down the Irish Sea would be a betrayal.
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    On the 1/33, even if there were a majority for a second referendum, would there be any incentive to not just have the vote in January 2020 ? Who might try to accelerate it into 2019 (assuming there were ways and means of fast tracking the process) ?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,180
    blueblue said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    The shine has definitely started to come off Boris's deal. There was a mad panic yesterday and many were swept up in the moment. In the cold light of day, it's looking more like an ill-conceived and destabilizing hotchpotch whose only real purpose was to secure Boris some crazily sycophantic headlines. Sir Oliver is proving to be a wise old head. We need to consider these matters calmly.

    Let's have an election and we can find out just how popular these stalling tactics really are, eh?
    Sorry, but we can't have a general election every time the government sulks because it isn't getting its own way. Let parliament do its job. What's good for the career of Boris Johnson will just have to wait another day.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    No! Surely not!

    https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1185918594401656834?s=20
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,601
    edited October 2019
    I cannot see another referendum passing even if the Boris Deal fails, indeed in the indicative votes staying in a Customs Union was closer to a majority than another referendum and of course over 300 MPs voted to stay in a Customs Union last year and only 280 voted for EUref2 in the indicative votes. Labour MPs from Leave seats and the DUP ie the key swing voters in the current Commons are also more likely to back the UK staying in a Customs Union than EUref2.

    Withdrawal Agreement plus Customs Union for the UK would of course be very close to May's Withdrawal Agreement, so she could end up having the last laugh after all! However at a general election while it would also be close to Corbyn's original Brexit plan without a confirmatory referendum v Remain attached Corbyn Labour would then get squeezed at a general election between the LDs backing rejoin and the Tories backing the Boris Deal still if they win a majority.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Stark_Dawning said:

    blueblue said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    The shine has definitely started to come off Boris's deal. There was a mad panic yesterday and many were swept up in the moment. In the cold light of day, it's looking more like an ill-conceived and destabilizing hotchpotch whose only real purpose was to secure Boris some crazily sycophantic headlines. Sir Oliver is proving to be a wise old head. We need to consider these matters calmly.

    Let's have an election and we can find out just how popular these stalling tactics really are, eh?
    Sorry, but we can't have a general election every time the government sulks because it isn't getting its own way. Let parliament do its job. What's good for the career of Boris Johnson will just have to wait another day.
    Every delaying tactic just makes my Sunderland Central goes blue benchmark that bit more achievable
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Danny565 said:

    Unfortunately, I think the Customs Union amendment passing is unlikely. The Lib Dems and a few ultra-Remain Labour MPs (David Lammy, etc.) are going to start squawking about how they won't dirty their hands by voting for any form of Brexit, and thus they'll end up with their worst scenario because of their refusal to compromise.

    My guess is the deal goes through, unamended, but a bit after the 31st Oct, and after the extension has kicked in. And we don't get an election for atleast another year.

    We are closer to the brink now , and that might make the LDs and Change UK more flexible than last Spring.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,623
    https://twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/1185920850161258497
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,779
    Gabs2 said:

    Remainers are trying to constantly misrepresent the deal. A border is the separation between two territories. Northern Ireland will be in the UK's Customs Territory, paying UK tariffs arrangements. There will be checks in GB and NI ports (although not for households) but not a border.

    Rubbish. It is a border in all but name. For these reasons -

    - While Northern Ireland will remain part of the customs territory of the UK, customs checks and controls will apply for goods moving from Great Britain to Northern Ireland. That sort of thing, generally, only happens at a border.
    - The Joint Committee (which will meet 'in camera') will decide on detailed criteria for what goods are “at risk” of being shipped on to the EU and will therefore have to pay a EU tariff. The definition of “at risk”, which will be agreed during the transition, will determine the volume of GB–NI trade where checks are required. For goods like agri-food, these checks are likely to be significant.
    - The UK has agreed that the European Commission and the CJEU will have jurisdiction to enforce EU rules in Northern Ireland. However, UK bodies will often be tasked with enforcement duties on the ground. This is the same as the current position throughout the UK, but in future it will only apply to NI and in future European Commission will have greater rights to ask for information and intervene in the way UK enforcement bodies are acting in NI.
    - The agreement also states that NI's "consent" will be provided by simple majority. However, it is not clear if a petition of concern – which could give one community a veto – could be triggered on the decision, or whether UK legislation will override normal Assembly procedures. If this is the case NI will never leave.

    I am personally delighted that this is a United Ireland in all but name but Tories best be prepared for the absolute fury that is about to be unleashed from Unionists. There is a new border and it is sophistry to pretend otherwise.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,020
    Stark_Dawning said:

    blueblue said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    The shine has definitely started to come off Boris's deal. There was a mad panic yesterday and many were swept up in the moment. In the cold light of day, it's looking more like an ill-conceived and destabilizing hotchpotch whose only real purpose was to secure Boris some crazily sycophantic headlines. Sir Oliver is proving to be a wise old head. We need to consider these matters calmly.

    Let's have an election and we can find out just how popular these stalling tactics really are, eh?
    Sorry, but we can't have a general election every time the government sulks because it isn't getting its own way. Let parliament do its job. What's good for the career of Boris Johnson will just have to wait another day.
    Indeed I detect no desire or enthusiasm for a GE with the general public. Anyone calling one may well get the two fingers.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Speccie goes off-message:

    https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1185919848964132864?s=20
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    justin124 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    'What a disgusting racist thing to say. This is a classic example of rampant anti-Semitism in the Labour Party. Labour MPs under a Tory government are ABSOLUTELY NOTHING LIKE the Jews in Nazi Germany. Six million of us were deliberately slaughtered in the biggest genocide in human history. You are a stain of a human being.'

    Don't be so stupid! Those Labour MPs would be enhancing the agenda and electoral interests of a thoroughly evil man who will bring misery to those they claim to represent.

    Please stop using this analogy. It is disgusting to compare the suffering of the Jews to leaving the EU. Those Jews were signing a death warrant. Labour MPs will have to get in a different queue at customs. Please get a grip.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,623
    CarlottaVance said:

    Speccie goes off-message:

    https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1185919848964132864?s=20

    Boris Johnson must have French ancestry.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,180
    dyedwoolie said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    blueblue said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    The shine has definitely started to come off Boris's deal. There was a mad panic yesterday and many were swept up in the moment. In the cold light of day, it's looking more like an ill-conceived and destabilizing hotchpotch whose only real purpose was to secure Boris some crazily sycophantic headlines. Sir Oliver is proving to be a wise old head. We need to consider these matters calmly.

    Let's have an election and we can find out just how popular these stalling tactics really are, eh?
    Sorry, but we can't have a general election every time the government sulks because it isn't getting its own way. Let parliament do its job. What's good for the career of Boris Johnson will just have to wait another day.
    Every delaying tactic just makes my Sunderland Central goes blue benchmark that bit more achievable
    I'm not really interested in whether Boris Johnson can win Sunderland Central. These things - rather like the careers of politicians - tend to look rather ephemeral away from the moment. But we could be living with the consequences of a botched Brexit arrangement for many decades. So there's no rush in my view.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    Foxy said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    blueblue said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    The shine has definitely started to come off Boris's deal. There was a mad panic yesterday and many were swept up in the moment. In the cold light of day, it's looking more like an ill-conceived and destabilizing hotchpotch whose only real purpose was to secure Boris some crazily sycophantic headlines. Sir Oliver is proving to be a wise old head. We need to consider these matters calmly.

    Let's have an election and we can find out just how popular these stalling tactics really are, eh?
    Sorry, but we can't have a general election every time the government sulks because it isn't getting its own way. Let parliament do its job. What's good for the career of Boris Johnson will just have to wait another day.
    Indeed I detect no desire or enthusiasm for a GE with the general public. Anyone calling one may well get the two fingers.
    I'm sure that knowing you'd lose it badly has no influence on your ability to detect said desire and enthusiasm...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,037
    Danny565 said:

    Unfortunately, I think the Customs Union amendment passing is unlikely. The Lib Dems and a few ultra-Remain Labour MPs (David Lammy, etc.) are going to start squawking about how they won't dirty their hands by voting for any form of Brexit, and thus they'll end up with their worst scenario because of their refusal to compromise.

    My guess is the deal goes through, unamended, but a bit after the 31st Oct, and after the extension has kicked in. And we don't get an election for atleast another year.

    But surely the plan could be to vote for the Customs Union amendment, and still oppose the overall bill, as the purpose of the amendment would be to piss off the ERG and so on? It wouldn't be voting for any form of Brexit, just messing with Boris's plans to get his Brexit through.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Stark_Dawning said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    blueblue said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    The shine has definitely started to come off Boris's deal. There was a mad panic yesterday and many were swept up in the moment. In the cold light of day, it's looking more like an ill-conceived and destabilizing hotchpotch whose only real purpose was to secure Boris some crazily sycophantic headlines. Sir Oliver is proving to be a wise old head. We need to consider these matters calmly.

    Let's have an election and we can find out just how popular these stalling tactics really are, eh?
    Sorry, but we can't have a general election every time the government sulks because it isn't getting its own way. Let parliament do its job. What's good for the career of Boris Johnson will just have to wait another day.
    Every delaying tactic just makes my Sunderland Central goes blue benchmark that bit more achievable
    I'm not really interested in whether Boris Johnson can win Sunderland Central. These things - rather like the careers of politicians - tend to look rather ephemeral away from the moment. But we could be living with the consequences of a botched Brexit arrangement for many decades. So there's no rush in my view.
    We all have our own interests. The damage delay is doing to faith in democracy is far worse than a short term GDP hit (should such a thing even occur)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,037
    blueblue said:

    Foxy said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    blueblue said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    The shine has definitely started to come off Boris's deal. There was a mad panic yesterday and many were swept up in the moment. In the cold light of day, it's looking more like an ill-conceived and destabilizing hotchpotch whose only real purpose was to secure Boris some crazily sycophantic headlines. Sir Oliver is proving to be a wise old head. We need to consider these matters calmly.

    Let's have an election and we can find out just how popular these stalling tactics really are, eh?
    Sorry, but we can't have a general election every time the government sulks because it isn't getting its own way. Let parliament do its job. What's good for the career of Boris Johnson will just have to wait another day.
    Indeed I detect no desire or enthusiasm for a GE with the general public. Anyone calling one may well get the two fingers.
    I'm sure that knowing you'd lose it badly has no influence on your ability to detect said desire and enthusiasm...
    I would think Dr Foxy personally would not mind it, as the LDs are likely to make gains.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    justin124 said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    justin124 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    'What a disgusting racist thing to say. This is a classic example of rampant anti-Semitism in the Labour Party. Labour MPs under a Tory government are ABSOLUTELY NOTHING LIKE the Jews in Nazi Germany. Six million of us were deliberately slaughtered in the biggest genocide in human history. You are a stain of a human being.'

    Don't be so stupid! Those Labour MPs would be enhancing the agenda and electoral interests of a thoroughly evil man who will bring misery to those they claim to represent.

    Go on then Justin, you email them and tell them they are like Jews in the Reichstag. And then sit by your front door waiting for the rozzers to knock
    Are you suggesting that it would have been anything other than mad for a member of the Reichstag who happened to be Jewish to vote for that Enabling Act? Ditto Communists and Socialists.
    That’s like comparing going outside in a war zone when snipers are killing people off to going outside here without a jumper and possibly getting a cold
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,601
    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1185875206142939136?s=20

    I suspect Mr Powell is mistaken - the DUP are in the "Do [you] feel lucky? Do you punk?" territory....

    Powell is wrong, No Deal and a hard border in Ireland would have made Scottish independence and a united Ireland more likely, the Boris Deal does not
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Foxy said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    blueblue said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    The shine has definitely started to come off Boris's deal. There was a mad panic yesterday and many were swept up in the moment. In the cold light of day, it's looking more like an ill-conceived and destabilizing hotchpotch whose only real purpose was to secure Boris some crazily sycophantic headlines. Sir Oliver is proving to be a wise old head. We need to consider these matters calmly.

    Let's have an election and we can find out just how popular these stalling tactics really are, eh?
    Sorry, but we can't have a general election every time the government sulks because it isn't getting its own way. Let parliament do its job. What's good for the career of Boris Johnson will just have to wait another day.
    Indeed I detect no desire or enthusiasm for a GE with the general public. Anyone calling one may well get the two fingers.
    It's the same as how the second referendum idea has still not really caught the public imagination. As fashionable as it is to slate politicians for being unable to make decisions on Brexit, IMO the public are really not keen to be given the opportunity to make the decisions (and, thus, to have responsibility for the outcome if it goes wrong) themselves.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,037
    edited October 2019
    justin124 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Unfortunately, I think the Customs Union amendment passing is unlikely. The Lib Dems and a few ultra-Remain Labour MPs (David Lammy, etc.) are going to start squawking about how they won't dirty their hands by voting for any form of Brexit, and thus they'll end up with their worst scenario because of their refusal to compromise.

    My guess is the deal goes through, unamended, but a bit after the 31st Oct, and after the extension has kicked in. And we don't get an election for atleast another year.

    We are closer to the brink now , and that might make the LDs and Change UK more flexible than last Spring.
    I'm watching carefully to see if Swinson reverses position on temporarily supporting Corbyn, that would be key.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,218
    Never order something without knowing the price.

    https://twitter.com/dli_odoir/status/1185638124338270213?s=20
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,720
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/1185920850161258497

    At Chez Pulpstar, my better half has picked ours and made a great crumble with them.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    kle4 said:

    blueblue said:

    Foxy said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    blueblue said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    The shine has definitely started to come off Boris's deal. There was a mad panic yesterday and many were swept up in the moment. In the cold light of day, it's looking more like an ill-conceived and destabilizing hotchpotch whose only real purpose was to secure Boris some crazily sycophantic headlines. Sir Oliver is proving to be a wise old head. We need to consider these matters calmly.

    Let's have an election and we can find out just how popular these stalling tactics really are, eh?
    Sorry, but we can't have a general election every time the government sulks because it isn't getting its own way. Let parliament do its job. What's good for the career of Boris Johnson will just have to wait another day.
    Indeed I detect no desire or enthusiasm for a GE with the general public. Anyone calling one may well get the two fingers.
    I'm sure that knowing you'd lose it badly has no influence on your ability to detect said desire and enthusiasm...
    I would think Dr Foxy personally would not mind it, as the LDs are likely to make gains.
    "You" in my sentence means "the Remain Alliance" as a whole. The post-election Conservative MPs would be (a) united, (b) probably increased in number, which is the one outcome the Remain Alliance cannot tolerate.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,779
    HYUFD said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1185875206142939136?s=20

    I suspect Mr Powell is mistaken - the DUP are in the "Do [you] feel lucky? Do you punk?" territory....

    Powell is wrong, No Deal and a hard border in Ireland would have made Scottish independence and a united Ireland more likely, the Boris Deal does not
    The Boris deal introduces detailed and intrusive customs checks between two parts of the UK. If the Boris deal works, and those checks are seamless, then introducing such checks between Eng and Sco becomes a lot less scary and Scots Independence more likely. If they don't work...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Pulpstar said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    kle4 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    kle4 said:

    FPT:

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    So what do the EU do if parliament votes for a referendum amendment? Say 'tough, you've got one more week'?

    Unless there is appetite to put Jeremy Corbyn in as PM for long enough to deliver it, insisting on a Ref2 means GE. Which as things stand probably means Con majority and back to this Deal.
    What other choice is there? Remain has to do something in the next few weeks or leave wins. As Saturday shows, deferring the decision in the hope something will come up is a very viable path for them. Probable defeat tomorrow beats certain defeat today.
    Leave won. 17.4m votes said so.

    Just a case of Remainers getting past the first stage of grief. They've been stuck in the first stage for a while.
    Remain MPs won't get past that first stage until they believe victory is impossible.
    They've been getting their own way for nigh on half a century - no wonder it's taking time to adapt.
    I thought you were talking about the DUP there - they and their forbears have been getting their way in Northern Ireland since at least the 1600s and arguably the 1100s...
    The DUPs forebears only arrived in the 1500s

    It was the likes of my family that arrived in the 1100s and we were burnt out in 1923
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Can I have some of what he's on?

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1185923025251770368?s=20
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    DougSeal said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    kle4 said:

    FPT:

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    So what do the EU do if parliament votes for a referendum amendment? Say 'tough, you've got one more week'?

    Unless there is appetite to put Jeremy Corbyn in as PM for long enough to deliver it, insisting on a Ref2 means GE. Which as things stand probably means Con majority and back to this Deal.
    What other choice is there? Remain has to do something in the next few weeks or leave wins. As Saturday shows, deferring the decision in the hope something will come up is a very viable path for them. Probable defeat tomorrow beats certain defeat today.
    Leave won. 17.4m votes said so.

    Just a case of Remainers getting past the first stage of grief. They've been stuck in the first stage for a while.
    Leave lost even more so as they are not getting what was promised. Leavers are getting a deal with gives the CJEU a say in the United Kingdom's internal market, internal customs controls within the UK, a border that will be policed by a secret committee half appointed by the EU. I didn't read any of that in the Leave manifesto.
    Describing it as a “secret committee” is just shit stirring

    It’s a committee appointed by the government and the EU
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,218
    HYUFD said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1185875206142939136?s=20

    I suspect Mr Powell is mistaken - the DUP are in the "Do [you] feel lucky? Do you punk?" territory....

    Powell is wrong, No Deal and a hard border in Ireland would have made Scottish independence and a united Ireland more likely, the Boris Deal does not
    *Explores alternative history where HYUFD says No Deal and a hard border in Ireland make Scottish independence and a united Ireland less likely. Also explores other alternative histories where HYUFD says different outcomes would also make Scottish independence and a united Ireland less likely.*
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,344
    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1185875206142939136?s=20

    I suspect Mr Powell is mistaken - the DUP are in the "Do [you] feel lucky? Do you punk?" territory....

    Powell is wrong, No Deal and a hard border in Ireland would have made Scottish independence and a united Ireland more likely, the Boris Deal does not
    The Boris deal introduces detailed and intrusive customs checks between two parts of the UK. If the Boris deal works, and those checks are seamless, then introducing such checks between Eng and Sco becomes a lot less scary and Scots Independence more likely. If they don't work...
    What intrusive checks are there that enforce the very distinctive abortion laws in NI?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited October 2019
    kle4 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Unfortunately, I think the Customs Union amendment passing is unlikely. The Lib Dems and a few ultra-Remain Labour MPs (David Lammy, etc.) are going to start squawking about how they won't dirty their hands by voting for any form of Brexit, and thus they'll end up with their worst scenario because of their refusal to compromise.

    My guess is the deal goes through, unamended, but a bit after the 31st Oct, and after the extension has kicked in. And we don't get an election for atleast another year.

    But surely the plan could be to vote for the Customs Union amendment, and still oppose the overall bill, as the purpose of the amendment would be to piss off the ERG and so on? It wouldn't be voting for any form of Brexit, just messing with Boris's plans to get his Brexit through.
    Yes, in theory, but they had the opportunity to do that in the spring (vote for the Customs Union option or the 'Common Market 2.0' in the indicative votes process, while still making clear that they would vote against any actual Brexit deal even if it included a CU or the CM) but they didn't do it.

    The ultra-Remainers don't believe their tactical interest is served by 'softening' the Brexit option that's on the table; their strategy all along has been to torch any possible compromise option, in order to leave the final showdown as No Deal vs Remain, in the belief Remain would be guaranteed to win. Maybe they'll change tack now that they've sen their crazily high-stakes strategy came so close to actually delivering No Deal, but I won't bank on it.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    https://twitter.com/ianbirrell/status/1185827338900119553?s=19
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    So much for "The EU has to extend anyway":

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1185924379856777218?s=20
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,601
    edited October 2019
    CarlottaVance said:

    Speccie goes off-message:

    https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1185919848964132864?s=20

    The key was Boris did not sign his photocopy of the Benn Act sent to the EU, he only signed his letter saying the government did not agree with Parliaments request for extension, which should be enough to reassure Tory and Brexit Party waverers
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,218
    CarlottaVance said:

    Can I have some of what he's on?

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1185923025251770368?s=20

    Randolph?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,601
    edited October 2019
    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1185875206142939136?s=20

    I suspect Mr Powell is mistaken - the DUP are in the "Do [you] feel lucky? Do you punk?" territory....

    Powell is wrong, No Deal and a hard border in Ireland would have made Scottish independence and a united Ireland more likely, the Boris Deal does not
    The Boris deal introduces detailed and intrusive customs checks between two parts of the UK. If the Boris deal works, and those checks are seamless, then introducing such checks between Eng and Sco becomes a lot less scary and Scots Independence more likely. If they don't work...
    The only polls giving Yes a majority in Scotland are in a No Deal scenario, avoid No Deal and it becomes less likely, though of course Boris and Westminster will block indyref2 for the foreseeable future anyway
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,344
    Theuniondivvie said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Can I have some of what he's on?

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1185923025251770368?s=20

    Randolph?
    Aw yessssssssssssss......
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Freggles said:

    https://twitter.com/ianbirrell/status/1185827338900119553?s=19

    Another "wages too low" shocker!

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12181385/Wages-for-British-workers-will-rise-in-the-event-of-a-Brexit-head-of-in-campaign-says.html
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,344
    Freggles said:

    https://twitter.com/ianbirrell/status/1185827338900119553?s=19

    Because they won't pay enough?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,676
    HYUFD said:



    CarlottaVance said:

    Speccie goes off-message:

    https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1185919848964132864?s=20

    The key was Boris did not sign his photocopy of the Benn Act sent to the EU, he only signed his letter saying the government did not agree with Parliaments request for extension, which should be enough to reassure Tory and Brexit Party waverers
    Semantics. But I don’t think sending the request will harm Johnson now. He has clearly been forced into it and not because he is gunning for a no deal - in fact, he has a deal on the table.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,039
    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Unfortunately, I think the Customs Union amendment passing is unlikely. The Lib Dems and a few ultra-Remain Labour MPs (David Lammy, etc.) are going to start squawking about how they won't dirty their hands by voting for any form of Brexit, and thus they'll end up with their worst scenario because of their refusal to compromise.

    My guess is the deal goes through, unamended, but a bit after the 31st Oct, and after the extension has kicked in. And we don't get an election for atleast another year.

    We are closer to the brink now , and that might make the LDs and Change UK more flexible than last Spring.
    I'm watching carefully to see if Swinson reverses position on temporarily supporting Corbyn, that would be key.
    I thought the main point of all those schemes was to request an extension and then have an election.

    If the deal doesn't get through parliament, I'm sure Johnson will be only too keen to have an election. And even more so if it does.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,779
    Charles said:

    DougSeal said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    kle4 said:

    FPT:

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    So what do the EU do if parliament votes for a referendum amendment? Say 'tough, you've got one more week'?

    Unless there is appetite to put Jeremy Corbyn in as PM for long enough to deliver it, insisting on a Ref2 means GE. Which as things stand probably means Con majority and back to this Deal.
    What other choice is there? Remain has to do something in the next few weeks or leave wins. As Saturday shows, deferring the decision in the hope something will come up is a very viable path for them. Probable defeat tomorrow beats certain defeat today.
    Leave won. 17.4m votes said so.

    Just a case of Remainers getting past the first stage of grief. They've been stuck in the first stage for a while.
    Leave lost even more so as they are not getting what was promised. Leavers are getting a deal with gives the CJEU a say in the United Kingdom's internal market, internal customs controls within the UK, a border that will be policed by a secret committee half appointed by the EU. I didn't read any of that in the Leave manifesto.
    Describing it as a “secret committee” is just shit stirring

    It’s a committee appointed by the government and the EU
    It is not "shit stirring". Decisions of the Joint Committee will be legally binding at lest until the end of transition (which it will be able to extend) and yet there is no requirement to publish them. The default position (see Rule 10) is that their meetings will be confidential aka secret. So we have a law making body meeting in secret. It's therefore a secret committee. And yet Brexiteers trumpet this abject agreement as some form of victory?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,011
    Nemtynakht said:

    justin124 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    'What a disgusting racist thing to say. This is a classic example of rampant anti-Semitism in the Labour Party. Labour MPs under a Tory government are ABSOLUTELY NOTHING LIKE the Jews in Nazi Germany. Six million of us were deliberately slaughtered in the biggest genocide in human history. You are a stain of a human being.'

    Don't be so stupid! Those Labour MPs would be enhancing the agenda and electoral interests of a thoroughly evil man who will bring misery to those they claim to represent.

    Please stop using this analogy. It is disgusting to compare the suffering of the Jews to leaving the EU. Those Jews were signing a death warrant. Labour MPs will have to get in a different queue at customs. Please get a grip.
    As someone who as a young child was greatly disturbed by the pictures coming out of the concentration camps I think Justin is pushing the boundaries of decency and the moderators may need to consider this

    I do not normally say this but he is really causing distress
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,092
    HYUFD said:



    CarlottaVance said:

    Speccie goes off-message:

    https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1185919848964132864?s=20

    The key was Boris did not sign his photocopy of the Benn Act sent to the EU, he only signed his letter saying the government did not agree with Parliaments request for extension, which should be enough to reassure Tory and Brexit Party waverers
    It wasn’t a photocopy. It turns out that was a lie.

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1185895759633420288?s=21
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,037
    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Unfortunately, I think the Customs Union amendment passing is unlikely. The Lib Dems and a few ultra-Remain Labour MPs (David Lammy, etc.) are going to start squawking about how they won't dirty their hands by voting for any form of Brexit, and thus they'll end up with their worst scenario because of their refusal to compromise.

    My guess is the deal goes through, unamended, but a bit after the 31st Oct, and after the extension has kicked in. And we don't get an election for atleast another year.

    We are closer to the brink now , and that might make the LDs and Change UK more flexible than last Spring.
    I'm watching carefully to see if Swinson reverses position on temporarily supporting Corbyn, that would be key.
    I thought the main point of all those schemes was to request an extension and then have an election.

    If the deal doesn't get through parliament, I'm sure Johnson will be only too keen to have an election. And even more so if it does.
    Hence why the scheme may switch to a referendum, which would need months of a different government before an election. It's fraught with difficulties, but if they think that Boris would win a GE, it's a better option. Although a GE would be the next on the list as at the least it delays Brexit.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,676
    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Unfortunately, I think the Customs Union amendment passing is unlikely. The Lib Dems and a few ultra-Remain Labour MPs (David Lammy, etc.) are going to start squawking about how they won't dirty their hands by voting for any form of Brexit, and thus they'll end up with their worst scenario because of their refusal to compromise.

    My guess is the deal goes through, unamended, but a bit after the 31st Oct, and after the extension has kicked in. And we don't get an election for atleast another year.

    We are closer to the brink now , and that might make the LDs and Change UK more flexible than last Spring.
    I'm watching carefully to see if Swinson reverses position on temporarily supporting Corbyn, that would be key.
    I thought the main point of all those schemes was to request an extension and then have an election.

    If the deal doesn't get through parliament, I'm sure Johnson will be only too keen to have an election. And even more so if it does.
    The Benn act was predicated on the assumption that the renegotiation would fail and we’d be casting around frantically now for whatever extension the EU would bestow to avoid a crash out. Because Boris actually brought a deal home, he’s upset the apple cart a bit and the law looks a bit pithy now.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,180
    CarlottaVance said:

    Can I have some of what he's on?

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1185923025251770368?s=20

    Weird. I can't believe the Telegraph 'journalists' actually believe the stuff they spout about Boris Johnson but nor can I believe that its hoary, world-weary, sceptical readership would particularly enjoy it. So what gives?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,020
    blueblue said:

    Foxy said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    blueblue said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    The shine has definitely started to come off Boris's deal. There was a mad panic yesterday and many were swept up in the moment. In the cold light of day, it's looking more like an ill-conceived and destabilizing hotchpotch whose only real purpose was to secure Boris some crazily sycophantic headlines. Sir Oliver is proving to be a wise old head. We need to consider these matters calmly.

    Let's have an election and we can find out just how popular these stalling tactics really are, eh?
    Sorry, but we can't have a general election every time the government sulks because it isn't getting its own way. Let parliament do its job. What's good for the career of Boris Johnson will just have to wait another day.
    Indeed I detect no desire or enthusiasm for a GE with the general public. Anyone calling one may well get the two fingers.
    I'm sure that knowing you'd lose it badly has no influence on your ability to detect said desire and enthusiasm...
    On the contrary, I expect my party to significantly increase its seats numbers.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,830
    Freggles said:

    https://twitter.com/ianbirrell/status/1185827338900119553?s=19

    Meanwhile we are still in the EU with complete freedom of movement and have a million unemployed workers.....

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,011
    edited October 2019

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1185895759633420288?s=21
    williamglenn said:

    HYUFD said:



    CarlottaVance said:

    Speccie goes off-message:

    https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1185919848964132864?s=20

    The key was Boris did not sign his photocopy of the Benn Act sent to the EU, he only signed his letter saying the government did not agree with Parliaments request for extension, which should be enough to reassure Tory and Brexit Party waverers
    It wasn’t a photocopy. It turns out that was a lie.

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1185895759633420288?s=21
    Boris was childish but so is this nonsense coming from remainers. The letter was served, Tusk has received it, and is actioning it

    Time remainers acted like grown ups as well
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,335
    Kinabalu said "Remain's best shot is to replace Johnson with Corbyn and support that temporary administration for long enough to deliver Ref2 on the Johnson Deal. "

    What makes you so sure that remain MPs won`t, in the end and reluctantly, accept a VONC and GNU led by Corbyn?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,779
    HYUFD said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1185875206142939136?s=20

    I suspect Mr Powell is mistaken - the DUP are in the "Do [you] feel lucky? Do you punk?" territory....

    Powell is wrong, No Deal and a hard border in Ireland would have made Scottish independence and a united Ireland more likely, the Boris Deal does not
    The Boris deal introduces detailed and intrusive customs checks between two parts of the UK. If the Boris deal works, and those checks are seamless, then introducing such checks between Eng and Sco becomes a lot less scary and Scots Independence more likely. If they don't work...
    The only polls giving Yes a majority in Scotland are in a No Deal scenario, avoid No Deal and it becomes less likely, though of course Boris and Westminster will block indyref2 for the foreseeable future anyway
    Polls are not static. They react to circumstances. And you're making a very big assumption in saying that Boris will be in a position to block anything.
This discussion has been closed.