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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A 3% return in a little over two months?

This market from Paddy Power seems to me a guaranteed way to get a 3% return in a little over two months.
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Like the Ref which will not be happening at any time, let alone 2019.
EDIT -
Has been my best political betting market, this one. A great lay. It was trading at around 3 at one time a few months ago.
They are whipping themselves up into a grievance cascade, which will justify doing anything to punish Boris. Whinging is what they love best.
Just a case of Remainers getting past the first stage of grief. They've been stuck in the first stage for a while.
'What a disgusting racist thing to say. This is a classic example of rampant anti-Semitism in the Labour Party. Labour MPs under a Tory government are ABSOLUTELY NOTHING LIKE the Jews in Nazi Germany. Six million of us were deliberately slaughtered in the biggest genocide in human history. You are a stain of a human being.'
Don't be so stupid! Those Labour MPs would be enhancing the agenda and electoral interests of a thoroughly evil man who will bring misery to those they claim to represent.
Will you be emailing to Labour MPs in general, or just Jewish ones?
And if they're keen on referendums, I'm sure there are others that can be thought of.....
Will it be enough? I think it will, but it is very close. Boris has proven cannier than many of gave him credit for (even if some will say only in his ruthlessness is ditching the DUP) and gotten his deal, and if he is careful and smart he can carry the votes. But it will be a knock down fight on many amendments.
And of course you are just the type to turn around and claim there is no anti-Semitism in Corbynism.
Imagine a border poll with the UK and Irish governments in favour of reunification? And a Tory Party thoroughly pissed off at the DUP?
My God, Labour is now so awash in anti-Semitism, their supporters can't even recognize it any more.
https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/1185912626691346432?s=20
Edit - and you repeated it having said it days ago. That speaks volumes
Post a list of names and I'm sure the PB Brains Trust will advise....
That the legislation deserved and deserves proper scrutiny is of course true, but one does have to question how much scrutiny will be going on vs simply trying to defeat it/change it beyond all recognition. Which are legitimate aims, but scrutiny it is not.
I suspect Mr Powell is mistaken - the DUP are in the "Do [you] feel lucky? Do you punk?" territory....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uD_aMZ6moxE
My guess is the deal goes through, unamended, but a bit after the 31st Oct, and after the extension has kicked in. And we don't get an election for atleast another year.
But there we go, it's been said, you stand by it, the world moves on.
The DUP are under huge pressure from the UUP, if the deal goes through then they’ll still going to be blamed to some extent .
The problem is it’s not in Labours interests to have an election given their dire polling numbers .
Aswell as this the Lib Dems will have a clean slate , all their MPs will have voted against the deal .
Swinson will clearly point out that Corbyn always wanted Brexit and has gone easy on Labour MPs voting for the deal.
There are no good options for Labour only degrees of awfulness .
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1185918594401656834?s=20
Withdrawal Agreement plus Customs Union for the UK would of course be very close to May's Withdrawal Agreement, so she could end up having the last laugh after all! However at a general election while it would also be close to Corbyn's original Brexit plan without a confirmatory referendum v Remain attached Corbyn Labour would then get squeezed at a general election between the LDs backing rejoin and the Tories backing the Boris Deal still if they win a majority.
- While Northern Ireland will remain part of the customs territory of the UK, customs checks and controls will apply for goods moving from Great Britain to Northern Ireland. That sort of thing, generally, only happens at a border.
- The Joint Committee (which will meet 'in camera') will decide on detailed criteria for what goods are “at risk” of being shipped on to the EU and will therefore have to pay a EU tariff. The definition of “at risk”, which will be agreed during the transition, will determine the volume of GB–NI trade where checks are required. For goods like agri-food, these checks are likely to be significant.
- The UK has agreed that the European Commission and the CJEU will have jurisdiction to enforce EU rules in Northern Ireland. However, UK bodies will often be tasked with enforcement duties on the ground. This is the same as the current position throughout the UK, but in future it will only apply to NI and in future European Commission will have greater rights to ask for information and intervene in the way UK enforcement bodies are acting in NI.
- The agreement also states that NI's "consent" will be provided by simple majority. However, it is not clear if a petition of concern – which could give one community a veto – could be triggered on the decision, or whether UK legislation will override normal Assembly procedures. If this is the case NI will never leave.
I am personally delighted that this is a United Ireland in all but name but Tories best be prepared for the absolute fury that is about to be unleashed from Unionists. There is a new border and it is sophistry to pretend otherwise.
https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1185919848964132864?s=20
https://twitter.com/dli_odoir/status/1185638124338270213?s=20
It was the likes of my family that arrived in the 1100s and we were burnt out in 1923
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1185923025251770368?s=20
It’s a committee appointed by the government and the EU
The ultra-Remainers don't believe their tactical interest is served by 'softening' the Brexit option that's on the table; their strategy all along has been to torch any possible compromise option, in order to leave the final showdown as No Deal vs Remain, in the belief Remain would be guaranteed to win. Maybe they'll change tack now that they've sen their crazily high-stakes strategy came so close to actually delivering No Deal, but I won't bank on it.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1185924379856777218?s=20
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12181385/Wages-for-British-workers-will-rise-in-the-event-of-a-Brexit-head-of-in-campaign-says.html
If the deal doesn't get through parliament, I'm sure Johnson will be only too keen to have an election. And even more so if it does.
I do not normally say this but he is really causing distress
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1185895759633420288?s=21
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1185895759633420288?s=21 Boris was childish but so is this nonsense coming from remainers. The letter was served, Tusk has received it, and is actioning it
Time remainers acted like grown ups as well
What makes you so sure that remain MPs won`t, in the end and reluctantly, accept a VONC and GNU led by Corbyn?