politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson’s phantom majority: why we’re heading for a Christmas
Comments
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God Blackford is a bore.0
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He always see me 'mute' the tvDavidL said:God Blackford is a bore.
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The DUP now chatting with the Labour Chief Whip Nick Brown !0
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If the DUP abstain on Letwin they are nuts.
Although we knew that already...0 -
Worse than a KinnockDavidL said:God Blackford is a bore.
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I voted Remain, then advocated for SM+CU, then advocated for May's deal, then advocated for any deal, then advocated for Boris' deal. Maybe if my fellow Remainers weren't such undemocratic fools we wouldn't keep losing so much. So perhaps reflect on your own behaviour before making up lies about others.kinabalu said:
But you fib relentlessly on here about having voted Remain.Gabs2 said:Caroline Flint has stood up against bigotry and racism many times while most of the Labour Party tacitly endorsed bigotry and anti-Semitism. I would return to voting Labour in an instant if she was leader, rather than the terrorist supporting bigots of Corbyn and McDonnell.
So, you know, pinch of ...0 -
No I don't think he's a tool. Was a comment purely in jest. He's a bit dull, but he's thoughtful, and I think he's worth listening to. I do think he's being a bit disingenuous for political reasons.kinabalu said:
No, he's good. Objectively, he is.Omnium said:He's not very good though if its his specialist subject. Doomed on the general knowledge I'd guess.
Loved your 'tool' comment - very witty - but TBH if you genuinely think he's a tool, you are allowing political bias to cloud your judgement.
Which is understandable. I can usually avoid that, but it's quite a rare thing.
PS. So objectively (as it seems to me) I think he's quite poor.0 -
Flint still fired up.
Now giving a Socialist justification for Brexit.0 -
Spin suspended and came back - prolyl took a bit hit on the sell Ayes.
I wonder what they'd do if someone bet £1k sells, Letwin passes, Tories abstain, and number of Ayes ends up at something like 10 (ie 300k profit). Guessing they'd void …. which is why I didn't touch it.0 -
Did likewise.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He always see me 'mute' the tvDavidL said:God Blackford is a bore.
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Where is the best place to buy an All Blacks shirt?0
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New windbag king.Alanbrooke said:
Worse than a KinnockDavidL said:God Blackford is a bore.
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And the Tories will declare it illegitimate and win a General Election on Leaving anyway. Unified Ireland is forever.williamglenn said:
The DUP can trump that by backing a second referendum on Brexit.MarqueeMark said:Boris shortly to tell the DUP that he is all that is stopping a referendum for a unified Ireland.
Lets play a game of "Who has whose bollocks in a vice".....0 -
Would the DUP be chatting with Nick Brown if this was just about abstaining .0
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I wonder whether the DUP are saying we’ll back Letwin if you support some amendments for us next week .0
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Invercargill. Off you go......Scott_P said:Where is the best place to buy an All Blacks shirt?
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So, just to summarise:
* There are several votes this afternoon.
* Each will affect the other.
* The final outcome will affect the betting markets and the currency.
* But we do not know the outcome nor the effect
* Given the lack of useful information and a low signal-to-noise ratio, I can't glean anything useful from this.
* So I will go out for the afternoon and will return in the evening.
Laters, alligators0 -
She's impressive.SandyRentool said:Flint still fired up.
Now giving a Socialist justification for Brexit.0 -
Fair point.StuartDickson said:
England 1983, yes.SouthamObserver said:For the UK left this feels very like 1983. It is divided, impotent, disastrously led and faced with a Prime Minister in complete charge of his own party and with 40% of the country solidly and unwaveringly behind him.
Scotland 1983, no.
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TM giving another statesperson speech and rejects Letwin0
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Yep - and then we come down to priorities, don't we?Gabs2 said:
Not if 35% of the public are willing to vote for a party opposing it.SouthamObserver said:
It only needs 35% of the electorate to vote for it.GIN1138 said:
But that's going to be a decision for the electorate ultimatelyScott_P said:
If the electorate decide they want workers rights and consumer protections "downgraded" then they'll vote for that.
I'd be surprised if they do personally and I can't see any government winning an election on such a platform...
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Johnson might lose the battle today but Labour knows whats coming in time.........0
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Go Tezza!0
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England are in for a hiding next weekend if New Zealand play like that again.0
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Have you already the attempt to shut down Parliament for 5 weeks?Big_G_NorthWales said:
He has surprised me and I give him credit for the way he is conducting himselfisam said:We watched Saturday at the commons from our bed...
Boris was the best I’ve seen him, no mumbling or bumbling. Sounded open, positive and serious, I didn’t think he had it in him.0 -
I see Mrs May is still putting Party before Country...0
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That was wrong though it was 4 days in truth but politics has moved on and it is decision time nowjustin124 said:
Have you already the attempt to shut down Parliament for 5 weeks?Big_G_NorthWales said:
He has surprised me and I give him credit for the way he is conducting himselfisam said:We watched Saturday at the commons from our bed...
Boris was the best I’ve seen him, no mumbling or bumbling. Sounded open, positive and serious, I didn’t think he had it in him.0 -
Which Country?Beibheirli_C said:I see Mrs May is still putting Party before Country...
Hat's off to Mrs May in my view.0 -
Some would say she is putting the Country firstBeibheirli_C said:I see Mrs May is still putting Party before Country...
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Given the trouble Letwin and Grieve caused her I doubt there's much love lost...Big_G_NorthWales said:TM giving another statesperson speech and rejects Letwin
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DublinScott_P said:Where is the best place to buy an All Blacks shirt?
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Hopefully they got their utterly unstoppable performance out of the way today. When the ABs play like that, no team in the world stands a chance against them.FrancisUrquhart said:England are in for a hiding next weekend if New Zealand play like that again.
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I expect a Party loyalist like you to say no less.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Some would say she is putting the Country firstBeibheirli_C said:I see Mrs May is still putting Party before Country...
She (like Boris) said there should be no border in the Irish Sea and now she is backing exactly that.0 -
They would be wrong.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Some would say she is putting the Country firstBeibheirli_C said:I see Mrs May is still putting Party before Country...
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There is no border in the Irish Sea. The Customs territory border is at the ROI border. There will just be checks at ports, just like there are right now. Plus Northern Ireland can leave the arrangement every four years if it proves to be disliked.Beibheirli_C said:
I expect a Party loyalist like you to say no less.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Some would say she is putting the Country firstBeibheirli_C said:I see Mrs May is still putting Party before Country...
She (like Boris) said there should be no border in the Irish Sea and now she is backing exactly that.
This is why David Trimble can support it.0 -
Does anyone know the expected timings of the actual votes on this?0
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Clarke “this is a very bad deal”0
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Matthew Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) Tweeted:
Theresa May:
"When we voted overwhelmingly to give the choice of EU membership to the British people did we really mean it?
When we voted to trigger Article 50 did we really mean it?
When the two main parties stood on manifestos to deliver #Brexit did we really mean it?"0 -
Trimble takes the Conservative Whip.Gabs2 said:
There is no border in the Irish Sea. The Customs territory border is at the ROI border. There will just be checks at ports, just like there are right now. Plus Northern Ireland can leave the arrangement every four years if it proves to be disliked.Beibheirli_C said:
I expect a Party loyalist like you to say no less.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Some would say she is putting the Country firstBeibheirli_C said:I see Mrs May is still putting Party before Country...
She (like Boris) said there should be no border in the Irish Sea and now she is backing exactly that.
This is why David Trimble can support it.1 -
Can't trust a Tory.Beibheirli_C said:
I expect a Party loyalist like you to say no less.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Some would say she is putting the Country firstBeibheirli_C said:I see Mrs May is still putting Party before Country...
She (like Boris) said there should be no border in the Irish Sea and now she is backing exactly that.0 -
When she said no border in the Irish Sea, did she mean it?CarlottaVance said:Matthew Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) Tweeted:
Theresa May:
"When we voted overwhelmingly to give the choice of EU membership to the British people did we really mean it?
When we voted to trigger Article 50 did we really mean it?
When the two main parties stood on manifestos to deliver #Brexit did we really mean it?"0 -
Which means nothing in the Lords. As proved by the fact he opposed May's deal.SandyRentool said:
Trimble takes the Conservative Whip.Gabs2 said:
There is no border in the Irish Sea. The Customs territory border is at the ROI border. There will just be checks at ports, just like there are right now. Plus Northern Ireland can leave the arrangement every four years if it proves to be disliked.Beibheirli_C said:
I expect a Party loyalist like you to say no less.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Some would say she is putting the Country firstBeibheirli_C said:I see Mrs May is still putting Party before Country...
She (like Boris) said there should be no border in the Irish Sea and now she is backing exactly that.
This is why David Trimble can support it.0 -
No there won't be. The Agreement literally says that Northern Ireland is recognised as part of the United Kingdom's customs territory.Beibheirli_C said:
I expect a Party loyalist like you to say no less.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Some would say she is putting the Country firstBeibheirli_C said:I see Mrs May is still putting Party before Country...
She (like Boris) said there should be no border in the Irish Sea and now she is backing exactly that.
All there will be is some special arrangements controlled by devolution to Stormont. I don't see anyone who backs devolution can oppose that.
Do you support abolition of Stormont, Holyrood and the Welsh Assembly? Or are you ok with differences agreed by devolved assemblies or Parliaments?0 -
Ah Ken Clarke. We really missed out not having him as PM. Hard to disagree with anything he said. For all his reservations, however, he backs the deal. Also backs Letwin, unfortunately.0
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So did most of the current cabinet.Gabs2 said:
Which means nothing in the Lords. As proved by the fact he opposed May's deal.SandyRentool said:
Trimble takes the Conservative Whip.Gabs2 said:
There is no border in the Irish Sea. The Customs territory border is at the ROI border. There will just be checks at ports, just like there are right now. Plus Northern Ireland can leave the arrangement every four years if it proves to be disliked.Beibheirli_C said:
I expect a Party loyalist like you to say no less.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Some would say she is putting the Country firstBeibheirli_C said:I see Mrs May is still putting Party before Country...
She (like Boris) said there should be no border in the Irish Sea and now she is backing exactly that.
This is why David Trimble can support it.0 -
If Johnson's deal fails by only a few votes, or the Lettwin amendment is carried by only a few votes, I think there is a good prospect that the EU will formally reject the request for an extension in order to force parliament to go back and adopt Johnson's deal. It is even conceivable that we could leave on 31st October without a deal, only to see the deal adopted in the first days of November.
The latest polls showing the public swinging further behind Johnson will I think harden the EU's resolve to try and nail down Johnson's deal now rather than leave things up in the air until after a GE.0 -
You voted Leave.Gabs2 said:I voted Remain, then advocated for SM+CU, then advocated for May's deal, then advocated for any deal, then advocated for Boris' deal. Maybe if my fellow Remainers weren't such undemocratic fools we wouldn't keep losing so much. So perhaps reflect on your own behaviour before making up lies about others.
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First time I've ever seen Little-Piggy speak in Parliament.0
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I thought today's session was due to end at 2.30? And it takes 15 minutes per vote with 4 votes due? So shouldn't they be voting by now?0
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Even the DUP can see more clearly than you and I think you know that I am no friend of themPhilip_Thompson said:
No there won't be. The Agreement literally says that Northern Ireland is recognised as part of the United Kingdom's customs territory.Beibheirli_C said:
I expect a Party loyalist like you to say no less.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Some would say she is putting the Country firstBeibheirli_C said:I see Mrs May is still putting Party before Country...
She (like Boris) said there should be no border in the Irish Sea and now she is backing exactly that.
All there will be is some special arrangements controlled by devolution to Stormont. I don't see anyone who backs devolution can oppose that.
Do you support abolition of Stormont, Holyrood and the Welsh Assembly? Or are you ok with differences agreed by devolved assemblies or Parliaments?0 -
The agreement imposed a de facto customs border separating NI from the rest of the UK.Philip_Thompson said:
No there won't be. The Agreement literally says that Northern Ireland is recognised as part of the United Kingdom's customs territory.Beibheirli_C said:
I expect a Party loyalist like you to say no less.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Some would say she is putting the Country firstBeibheirli_C said:I see Mrs May is still putting Party before Country...
She (like Boris) said there should be no border in the Irish Sea and now she is backing exactly that.
All there will be is some special arrangements controlled by devolution to Stormont. I don't see anyone who backs devolution can oppose that....
That might not matter to you (or indeed to me, FWIW), but as someone who was rather absolutist in their view of May’s deal, you ought to be able to recognise its unacceptability to those for whom it does matter. They are similarly unshakeably convinced of their rectitude.0 -
OKOmnium said:No I don't think he's a tool. Was a comment purely in jest. He's a bit dull, but he's thoughtful, and I think he's worth listening to. I do think he's being a bit disingenuous for political reasons.
PS. So objectively (as it seems to me) I think he's quite poor.
But how do you know you're being objective?
I have a special button that I press.0 -
I thought the voting was due to start at 2:30Philip_Thompson said:I thought today's session was due to end at 2.30? And it takes 15 minutes per vote with 4 votes due? So shouldn't they be voting by now?
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If they can keep talking till midnight, the Benn Act will be triggered anyway ...Philip_Thompson said:I thought today's session was due to end at 2.30? And it takes 15 minutes per vote with 4 votes due? So shouldn't they be voting by now?
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Hasn’t someone got a train to Liverpool to catch?Philip_Thompson said:I thought today's session was due to end at 2.30? And it takes 15 minutes per vote with 4 votes due? So shouldn't they be voting by now?
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Another stunning intervention from Chris Grayling.0
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“Objectively as it seems to me...”. LOL.kinabalu said:
OKOmnium said:No I don't think he's a tool. Was a comment purely in jest. He's a bit dull, but he's thoughtful, and I think he's worth listening to. I do think he's being a bit disingenuous for political reasons.
PS. So objectively (as it seems to me) I think he's quite poor.
But how do you know you're being objective?
I have a special button that I press.
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So the first consequence of the Tory rupture with unionism in Northern Ireland could be Johnson having to ask for an extension.0
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If Cons vote to abstain. doesn't that make the risk on this market v assymetrical ( which isn't reflected in the numbers?MikeSmithson said:
Or has that plan been changed?0 -
I've no way of knowing that I'm being objective of course. I know when I'm not being so, and as I know there's a difference then I know that when I think I'm being objective there's a good chance that I'm being closer to objective than I usually am.kinabalu said:
OKOmnium said:No I don't think he's a tool. Was a comment purely in jest. He's a bit dull, but he's thoughtful, and I think he's worth listening to. I do think he's being a bit disingenuous for political reasons.
PS. So objectively (as it seems to me) I think he's quite poor.
But how do you know you're being objective?
I have a special button that I press.
I have a mathematical hat, and I think that sort of helps in giving me some sort of lodestone as to objectivity.
Alas I have no special button.0 -
I have just seen Nigel Evans say he has never "worked" on a Saturday since becoming an MP
Poor him... unlike millions of others0 -
I'm going against the crowd and the media pundits on this. I reckon the Letwin amendment makes an October 31st exit with the deal more likely, indeed very likely.
The reason I say this is that I think that people are missing one small but hugely important point about how the EU would react to a request today under the Benn Act for an extension. There is no chance of them giving an instant answer. They have no obligation to respond promptly to an Article 50 request. Even in 'normal' circumstances, it would take them some time to go through the procedures of consultation followed by a formal Council summit (even if the latter is done by conference call).
But these are not normal circumstances at all. They can see the parliamentary position as well as we can. They want to get this deal done, if only in the hope of moving on from the debilitating psychodrama, but also to end the business uncertainty for a while at least. They know that accepting the extension would quite possibly mean that things drag on. Equally they know that refusing the extension might lead to the disaster of a no-deal crash out. So what do they do?
Answer: nothing. They reply to Boris saying they note the request, and will respond once they've made a decision. And then sit on their hands. After all, they have over a week before they have to make a decision. They will also probably repeat that they hope the UK can agree the deal in time for the 31st. Macron and perhaps a few others say they are minded to refuse an extension.
Meanwhile, Boris tries again to get his deal through parliament. This time, with the extension issue in the EU's hands, MPs have a straight decision: back the deal, or either a no-deal crash out or an extension might happen, completely outside parliament's control by this stage. Letwin and the rebel alliance have shot their bolt, admittedly having obtained an insurance policy to stop no-deal, but it's an insurance policy which they can't be sure will be honoured. At the same time, Boris can address the concern which Letwin was worried about, by introducing the full legislation to ratify. Crucially, the EU don't need to respond to the extension request until AFTER that legislation is in place (or definitively rejected). That uncertainty makes the deal more likely to pass.2 -
kinabalu said:
OKOmnium said:No I don't think he's a tool. Was a comment purely in jest. He's a bit dull, but he's thoughtful, and I think he's worth listening to. I do think he's being a bit disingenuous for political reasons.
PS. So objectively (as it seems to me) I think he's quite poor.
But how do you know you're being objective?
I have a special button that I press.
Good one!0 -
Very good points.Richard_Nabavi said:I'm going against the crowd and the media pundits on this. I reckon the Letwin amendment makes an October 31st exit with the deal more likely, indeed very likely.
The reason I say this is that I think that people are missing one small but hugely important point about how the EU would react to a request today under the Benn Act for an extension. There is no chance of them giving an instant answer. They have no obligation to respond promptly to an Article 50 request. Even in 'normal' circumstances, it would take them some time to go through the procedures of consultation followed by a formal Council summit (even if the latter is done by conference call).
But these are not normal circumstances at all. They can see the parliamentary position as well as we can. They want to get this deal done, if only in the hope of moving on from the debilitating psychodrama, but also to end the business uncertainty for a while at least. They know that accepting the extension would quite possibly mean that things drag on. Equally they know that refusing the extension might lead to the disaster of a no-deal crash out. So what do they do?
Answer: nothing. They reply to Boris saying they note the request, and will respond once they've made a decision. And then sit on their hands. After all, they have over a week before they have to make a decision. They will also probably repeat that they hope the UK can agree the deal in time for the 31st. Macron and perhaps a few others say they are minded to refuse an extension.
Meanwhile, Boris tries again to get his deal through parliament. This time, with the extension issue in the EU's hands, MPs have a straight decision: back the deal, or either a no-deal crash out or an extension might happen, completely outside parliament's control by this stage. Letwin and the rebel alliance have shot their bolt, admittedly having obtained an insurance policy to stop no-deal, but it's an insurance policy which they can't be sure will be honoured. At the same time, Boris can address the concern which Letwin was worried about, by introducing the full legislation to ratify. Crucially, the EU don't need to respond to the extension request until AFTER that legislation is in place (or definitively rejected). That uncertainty makes the deal more likely to pass.
The EU now have a far better deal than they did previously, the Irish especially, so they will do everything they can to see it pass.
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I think that's exactly right.Richard_Nabavi said:I'm going against the crowd and the media pundits on this. I reckon the Letwin amendment makes an October 31st exit with the deal more likely, indeed very likely.
The reason I say this is that I think that people are missing one small but hugely important point about how the EU would react to a request today under the Benn Act for an extension. There is no chance of them giving an instant answer. They have no obligation to respond promptly to an Article 50 request. Even in 'normal' circumstances, it would take them some time to go through the procedures of consultation followed by a formal Council summit (even if the latter is done by conference call).
But these are not normal circumstances at all. They can see the parliamentary position as well as we can. They want to get this deal done, if only in the hope of moving on from the debilitating psychodrama, but also to end the business uncertainty for a while at least. They know that accepting the extension would quite possibly mean that things drag on. Equally they know that refusing the extension might lead to the disaster of a no-deal crash out. So what do they do?
Answer: nothing. They reply to Boris saying they note the request, and will respond once they've made a decision. And then sit on their hands. After all, they have over a week before they have to make a decision. They will also probably repeat that they hope the UK can agree the deal in time for the 31st. Macron and perhaps a few others say they are minded to refuse an extension.
Meanwhile, Boris tries again to get his deal through parliament. This time, with the extension issue in the EU's hands, MPs have a straight decision: back the deal, or either a no-deal crash out or an extension might happen, completely outside parliament's control by this stage. Letwin and the rebel alliance have shot their bolt, admittedly having obtained an insurance policy to stop no-deal, but it's an insurance policy which they can't be sure will be honoured. At the same time, Boris can address the concern which Letwin was worried about, by introducing the full legislation to ratify. Crucially, the EU don't need to respond to the extension request until AFTER that legislation is in place (or definitively rejected). That uncertainty makes the deal more likely to pass.1 -
I find Grieve incredibly disingenuous4
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I think I'd be very confused if I got an extension request from the UK now as a european leader.Richard_Nabavi said:I'm going against the crowd and the media pundits on this. I reckon the Letwin amendment makes an October 31st exit with the deal more likely, indeed very likely.
The reason I say this is that I think that people are missing one small but hugely important point about how the EU would react to a request today under the Benn Act for an extension. There is no chance of them giving an instant answer. They have no obligation to respond promptly to an Article 50 request. Even in 'normal' circumstances, it would take them some time to go through the procedures of consultation followed by a formal Council summit (even if the latter is done by conference call).
But these are not normal circumstances at all. They can see the parliamentary position as well as we can. They want to get this deal done, if only in the hope of moving on from the debilitating psychodrama, but also to end the business uncertainty for a while at least. They know that accepting the extension would quite possibly mean that things drag on. Equally they know that refusing the extension might lead to the disaster of a no-deal crash out. So what do they do?
Answer: nothing. They reply to Boris saying they note the request, and will respond once they've made a decision. And then sit on their hands. After all, they have over a week before they have to make a decision. They will also probably repeat that they hope the UK can agree the deal in time for the 31st. Macron and perhaps a few others say they are minded to refuse an extension.
Meanwhile, Boris tries again to get his deal through parliament. This time, with the extension issue in the EU's hands, MPs have a straight decision: back the deal, or either a no-deal crash out or an extension might happen, completely outside parliament's control by this stage. Letwin and the rebel alliance have shot their bolt, admittedly having obtained an insurance policy to stop no-deal, but it's an insurance policy which they can't be sure will be honoured. At the same time, Boris can address the concern which Letwin was worried about, by introducing the full legislation to ratify. Crucially, the EU don't need to respond to the extension request until AFTER that legislation is in place (or definitively rejected). That uncertainty makes the deal more likely to pass.0 -
Would Boris even be hurt by an extension any more? Grieve, Starmer, Swinson and Farage have all advocated for one.SouthamObserver said:So the first consequence of the Tory rupture with unionism in Northern Ireland could be Johnson having to ask for an extension.
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Good afternoon, everyone.
Do England play New Zealand next?0 -
That’s a very good point. The EU can play hardball by saying nothing, and work with Boris to wait until Letwin and co blink.Richard_Nabavi said:I'm going against the crowd and the media pundits on this. I reckon the Letwin amendment makes an October 31st exit with the deal more likely, indeed very likely.
The reason I say this is that I think that people are missing one small but hugely important point about how the EU would react to a request today under the Benn Act for an extension. There is no chance of them giving an instant answer. They have no obligation to respond promptly to an Article 50 request. Even in 'normal' circumstances, it would take them some time to go through the procedures of consultation followed by a formal Council summit (even if the latter is done by conference call).
But these are not normal circumstances at all. They can see the parliamentary position as well as we can. They want to get this deal done, if only in the hope of moving on from the debilitating psychodrama, but also to end the business uncertainty for a while at least. They know that accepting the extension would quite possibly mean that things drag on. Equally they know that refusing the extension might lead to the disaster of a no-deal crash out. So what do they do?
Answer: nothing. They reply to Boris saying they note the request, and will respond once they've made a decision. And then sit on their hands. After all, they have over a week before they have to make a decision. They will also probably repeat that they hope the UK can agree the deal in time for the 31st. Macron and perhaps a few others say they are minded to refuse an extension.
Meanwhile, Boris tries again to get his deal through parliament. This time, with the extension issue in the EU's hands, MPs have a straight decision: back the deal, or either a no-deal crash out or an extension might happen, completely outside parliament's control by this stage. Letwin and the rebel alliance have shot their bolt, admittedly having obtained an insurance policy to stop no-deal, but it's an insurance policy which they can't be sure will be honoured. At the same time, Boris can address the concern which Letwin was worried about, by introducing the full legislation to ratify. Crucially, the EU don't need to respond to the extension request until AFTER that legislation is in place (or definitively rejected). That uncertainty makes the deal more likely to pass.
On a similar basis, Boris probably therefore should have sent the letter last night, and wielded the “we’ll think about it” letter today.0 -
When she voted against implementing Scottish and Welsh devolution did she really mean it.Jonathan said:
When she said no border in the Irish Sea, did she mean it?CarlottaVance said:Matthew Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) Tweeted:
Theresa May:
"When we voted overwhelmingly to give the choice of EU membership to the British people did we really mean it?
When we voted to trigger Article 50 did we really mean it?
When the two main parties stood on manifestos to deliver #Brexit did we really mean it?"0 -
It's got to be a sell. Limited risk of it going way over, but an HMG abstention if the Letwin amendment passes means you're in the big bucksTheWhiteRabbit said:
If Cons vote to abstain. doesn't that make the risk on this market v assymetrical ( which isn't reflected in the numbers?MikeSmithson said:
Or has that plan been changed?0 -
No, I don't think it matters. From here the only thing that could scupper him electorally is a no deal in which Tory MPs are complicit.Gabs2 said:
Would Boris even be hurt by an extension any more? Grieve, Starmer, Swinson and Farage have all advocated for one.SouthamObserver said:So the first consequence of the Tory rupture with unionism in Northern Ireland could be Johnson having to ask for an extension.
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I accept the principle that the British people voted to leave but I reject each deal that the UK government has been able to negotiate and leaving without a deal at all.numbertwelve said:I find Grieve incredibly disingenuous
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Yes, next Saturday morning.Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, everyone.
Do England play New Zealand next?0 -
Actually that's another reason why they'll be reluctant to respond if they can avoid doing so. As per normal procedure, they really want to deal with the UK government, not parliament. A mess where parliament wants one thing and the government the opposite is a mess where they'd try to avoid taking sides, if they can.Pulpstar said:
I think I'd be very confused if I got an extension request from the UK now as a european leader.0 -
He could hardly do it before the debate but I understand Boris will not send the letter but the UK Ambassador to the EU will and it will be discussed at a meeting of all EU Ambassadors tomorrow (Sunday)Time_to_Leave said:
That’s a very good point. The EU can play hardball by saying nothing, and work with Boris to wait until Letwin and co blink.Richard_Nabavi said:I'm going against the crowd and the media pundits on this. I reckon the Letwin amendment makes an October 31st exit with the deal more likely, indeed very likely.
The reason I say this is that I think that people are missing one small but hugely important point about how the EU would react to a request today under the Benn Act for an extension. There is no chance of them giving an instant answer. They have no obligation to respond promptly to an Article 50 request. Even in 'normal' circumstances, it would take them some time to go through the procedures of consultation followed by a formal Council summit (even if the latter is done by conference call).
But these are not normal circumstances at all. They can see the parliamentary position as well as we can. They want to get this deal done, if only in the hope of moving on from the debilitating psychodrama, but also to end the business uncertainty for a while at least. They know that accepting the extension would quite possibly mean that things drag on. Equally they know that refusing the extension might lead to the disaster of a no-deal crash out. So what do they do?
Answer: nothing. They reply to Boris saying they note the request, and will respond once they've made a decision. And then sit on their hands. After all, they have over a week before they have to make a decision. They will also probably repeat that they hope the UK can agree the deal in time for the 31st. Macron and perhaps a few others say they are minded to refuse an extension.
Meanwhile, Boris tries again to get his deal through parliament. This time, with the extension issue in the EU's hands, MPs have a straight decision: back the deal, or either a no-deal crash out or an extension might happen, completely outside parliament's control by this stage. Letwin and the rebel alliance have shot their bolt, admittedly having obtained an insurance policy to stop no-deal, but it's an insurance policy which they can't be sure will be honoured. At the same time, Boris can address the concern which Letwin was worried about, by introducing the full legislation to ratify. Crucially, the EU don't need to respond to the extension request until AFTER that legislation is in place (or definitively rejected). That uncertainty makes the deal more likely to pass.
On a similar basis, Boris probably therefore should have sent the letter last night, and wielded the “we’ll think about it” letter today.0 -
Cash supports deal0
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Talking heads on BBC think MV will fail0
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Trying to work out the numbers for votes that will actually matter next week, I suspect, but as you say the ayes cannot be considered certain if Letwin passes.GIN1138 said:
Why are people bothering to try and work out the numbers?CarlottaVance said:
If Letwin passes it doesn't matter if the deal passes as its not a meanginful vote and those "Aye's" can still become "No's" on another day.
The whole thing is a total waste of time - just like waste of space Letwin!
It would be amusing if the DUP votes are the crucial ones for the Letwin amendment. I can see no reason they would play ball with the goverment on that issue - what do they care if this parliament seeks to use the extra time to tack on a referendum or just remain?0 -
You must have been asleep when he said he’d vote for the deal.DavidL said:
I accept the principle that the British people voted to leave but I reject each deal that the UK government has been able to negotiate and leaving without a deal at all.numbertwelve said:I find Grieve incredibly disingenuous
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Laura K says they can effectively prevent the vote from going ahead by presenting no "yes" tellers. Make of that what you will... (couldn't Lab appoint 2 just to be difficult?)Drutt said:
It's got to be a sell. Limited risk of it going way over, but an HMG abstention if the Letwin amendment passes means you're in the big bucksTheWhiteRabbit said:
If Cons vote to abstain. doesn't that make the risk on this market v assymetrical ( which isn't reflected in the numbers?MikeSmithson said:
Or has that plan been changed?0 -
I was absolutist against May's Deal because there was no democratic controls. Democracy was in perpetuity outsourced to Brussels with no unilateral exit. That was unacceptable absolutely.Nigelb said:
The agreement imposed a de facto customs border separating NI from the rest of the UK.Philip_Thompson said:
No there won't be. The Agreement literally says that Northern Ireland is recognised as part of the United Kingdom's customs territory.Beibheirli_C said:
I expect a Party loyalist like you to say no less.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Some would say she is putting the Country firstBeibheirli_C said:I see Mrs May is still putting Party before Country...
She (like Boris) said there should be no border in the Irish Sea and now she is backing exactly that.
All there will be is some special arrangements controlled by devolution to Stormont. I don't see anyone who backs devolution can oppose that....
That might not matter to you (or indeed to me, FWIW), but as someone who was rather absolutist in their view of May’s deal, you ought to be able to recognise its unacceptability to those for whom it does matter. They are similarly unshakeably convinced of their rectitude.
Now control will be devolved to Stormont. If the controls continue it will be for only as long as the voters of NI vote for it to continue on an ongoing basis.1 -
Led out !!!rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/IsabelHardman/status/1185539036263399424
Now up to billions in double figures?0 -
If, for any reason, Boris loses power over this and the EU puts our backs to the wall, the remaining nuclear button to avoid No Deal is the Revoke option, even if it is only to buy more time.Richard_Nabavi said:I'm going against the crowd and the media pundits on this. I reckon the Letwin amendment makes an October 31st exit with the deal more likely, indeed very likely.
The reason I say this is that I think that people are missing one small but hugely important point about how the EU would react to a request today under the Benn Act for an extension. There is no chance of them giving an instant answer. They have no obligation to respond promptly to an Article 50 request. Even in 'normal' circumstances, it would take them some time to go through the procedures of consultation followed by a formal Council summit (even if the latter is done by conference call).
But these are not normal circumstances at all. They can see the parliamentary position as well as we can. They want to get this deal done, if only in the hope of moving on from the debilitating psychodrama, but also to end the business uncertainty for a while at least. They know that accepting the extension would quite possibly mean that things drag on. Equally they know that refusing the extension might lead to the disaster of a no-deal crash out. So what do they do?
Answer: nothing. They reply to Boris saying they note the request, and will respond once they've made a decision. And then sit on their hands. After all, they have over a week before they have to make a decision. They will also probably repeat that they hope the UK can agree the deal in time for the 31st. Macron and perhaps a few others say they are minded to refuse an extension.
Meanwhile, Boris tries again to get his deal through parliament. This time, with the extension issue in the EU's hands, MPs have a straight decision: back the deal, or either a no-deal crash out or an extension might happen, completely outside parliament's control by this stage. Letwin and the rebel alliance have shot their bolt, admittedly having obtained an insurance policy to stop no-deal, but it's an insurance policy which they can't be sure will be honoured. At the same time, Boris can address the concern which Letwin was worried about, by introducing the full legislation to ratify. Crucially, the EU don't need to respond to the extension request until AFTER that legislation is in place (or definitively rejected). That uncertainty makes the deal more likely to pass.0 -
For most of them its a free vote - they can always change their mind on the important votes if they really want, so Letwin is no brainer.nico67 said:Garett Snell supporting the Letwin Amendment.
Given he’s a Labour dealer then I’d expect his sentiments to be shared by other Labour MPs who want to vote for this deal .
In which case they won't want an election and won't table a VONC, but if the government make time for someone elses's proposal for a VONC, will they give the government confidence?SouthamObserver said:I suspect the Labour civil war is going to go nuclear next week. Once Brexit is voted through a lot of what was keeping things relatively calm is not going to be there anymore.
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Jenkyns and Bridgen ?rottenborough said:Cash supports deal
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Surely as soon as extension letter goes in we're into VONC territory & that affects how the EU respond ?0
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I'm getting a strong sense that the EU holds quite a lot of the cards.SouthamObserver said:
Very good points.Richard_Nabavi said:I'm going against the crowd and the media pundits on this. I reckon the Letwin amendment makes an October 31st exit with the deal more likely, indeed very likely.
The reason I say this is that I think that people are missing one small but hugely important point about how the EU would react to a request today under the Benn Act for an extension. There is no chance of them giving an instant answer. They have no obligation to respond promptly to an Article 50 request. Even in 'normal' circumstances, it would take them some time to go through the procedures of consultation followed by a formal Council summit (even if the latter is done by conference call).
But these are not normal circumstances at all. They can see the parliamentary position as well as we can. They want to get this deal done, if only in the hope of moving on from the debilitating psychodrama, but also to end the business uncertainty for a while at least. They know that accepting the extension would quite possibly mean that things drag on. Equally they know that refusing the extension might lead to the disaster of a no-deal crash out. So what do they do?
Answer: nothing. They reply to Boris saying they note the request, and will respond once they've made a decision. And then sit on their hands. After all, they have over a week before they have to make a decision. They will also probably repeat that they hope the UK can agree the deal in time for the 31st. Macron and perhaps a few others say they are minded to refuse an extension.
Meanwhile, Boris tries again to get his deal through parliament. This time, with the extension issue in the EU's hands, MPs have a straight decision: back the deal, or either a no-deal crash out or an extension might happen, completely outside parliament's control by this stage. Letwin and the rebel alliance have shot their bolt, admittedly having obtained an insurance policy to stop no-deal, but it's an insurance policy which they can't be sure will be honoured. At the same time, Boris can address the concern which Letwin was worried about, by introducing the full legislation to ratify. Crucially, the EU don't need to respond to the extension request until AFTER that legislation is in place (or definitively rejected). That uncertainty makes the deal more likely to pass.
The EU now have a far better deal than they did previously, the Irish especially, so they will do everything they can to see it pass.0 -
Both voting yesPulpstar said:
Jenkyns and Bridgen ?rottenborough said:Cash supports deal
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If the MV fails, Boris will have lost it when Geoffrey Cox opened that infamous debate.numbertwelve said:Talking heads on BBC think MV will fail
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