There is a Batfair market entitled: "UK - Brexit - How many MPs will vote 'Aye' on Brexit motion?" Odds are curiously low on 199 or less (10/1). 200-209 = 100/1.
"For the purpose of this market any vote on amendments do not count."
Oh goody, Rebecca Long-Bailey winding up for Labour
She's a bit lightweight isn't she ?
a bit?
Complete and utter. How anyone can view her as the potential leader of a Brownie pack let alone a political party I have no idea.
I was going to type 'major political party' but if she is the best that Labour can offer, it has ceased to be a major anything other than an embarrassment
She just read out her speech. Compare with Gove in action now.
Night and day. Her presentational style is appalling.
If Labour lose the next general election and Corbyn goes and Long-Bailey replaces him hard to see the LDs not overtaking them
I always find it amusing when Bercow calls a vote! It seems to be a quirk of our parliament. I wonder what people from other countries think when the hear him bellow "clear the lobbies"?
That's that then - shake hands to close play early, and come back on Monday?
Next step is to see how No.10 play this - it is a stop brexit amendment (not from Letwin, but from most of the others backing it), so how apoplectic will they play it?
There is a Batfair market entitled: "UK - Brexit - How many MPs will vote 'Aye' on Brexit motion?" Odds are curiously low on 199 or less (10/1). 200-209 = 100/1.
"For the purpose of this market any vote on amendments do not count."
Total opposite to the main MV market today :-)
That just means that the number of votes is on the substantive motion, whether or not it gets amended - rather than the votes for the amendment.
Labour MUST call a VONC if Letwin passes. Now or never.
I think barring a very unexpected accident this deal will be ratified now. Possibly after a general election. But I think Brexit has won and Boris Johnson has won.
Well done Theresa May for speaking in favour of the Boris Deal, if it passes much of the credit must still go to her for negotiating most of it
Classic hard cop soft cop.
May cuts a tough deal then Johnson plays the nice guy and compromises.
Lol. After months of saying that the EU would never accept Northern Ireland outside being full members of the Customs Union, it is now a softer deal.
The EU always said that alternative arrangements could replace the backstop. Johnson gave up on the alternative arrangements and chose a permanent framework that separates Northern Ireland.
which was in exchange for Varadkars very large concession on allowing for consent to be included.
Can we tell what the DUP did on Letwin? Sammy sounded as if he was opposed.
The BBC is taking his comment "We would be failing in our duty if we did not use every strategy" to defeat the deal as an indication they would back Letwin.
"For the purpose of this market any vote on amendments do not count."
Total opposite to the main MV market today :-) That just means that the number of votes is on the substantive motion, whether or not it gets amended - rather than the votes for the amendment."
Yes, Sandpit, that`s how I understood it. Hence, if government walks out prior to vote on the mothion the number voting "aye" will certainly be less than 199 - which explains the odds anamoly that I pointed out.
Labour MUST call a VONC if Letwin passes. Now or never.
I think barring a very unexpected accident this deal will be ratified now. Possibly after a general election. But I think Brexit has won and Boris Johnson has won.
Brexit has won. 17.4 million votes.
It only depends upon whether Remainer MPs honour democracy or not. They have no excuse of blaming Leavers for rejecting a deal anymore.
Can we tell what the DUP did on Letwin? Sammy sounded as if he was opposed.
The BBC is taking his comment "We would be failing in our duty if we did not use every strategy" to defeat the deal as an indication they would back Letwin.
Well Letwin is a way to defeat the deal, that's why Labour are backing it, so their taking it that way makes sense.
"For the purpose of this market any vote on amendments do not count."
Total opposite to the main MV market today :-) That just means that the number of votes is on the substantive motion, whether or not it gets amended - rather than the votes for the amendment."
Yes, Sandpit, that`s how I understood it. Hence, if government walks out prior to vote on the mothion the number voting "aye" will certainly be less than 199 - which explains the odds anamoly that I pointed out.
Yes, I see it the same way. No to the substantive motion is now 1.6 on BF Ex - if the amendment passes it should go a lot shorter.
100 Tory abstentions will of course make your 199 or fewer a winner too.
"For the purpose of this market any vote on amendments do not count."
Total opposite to the main MV market today :-) That just means that the number of votes is on the substantive motion, whether or not it gets amended - rather than the votes for the amendment."
Yes, Sandpit, that`s how I understood it. Hence, if government walks out prior to vote on the mothion the number voting "aye" will certainly be less than 199 - which explains the odds anamoly that I pointed out.
Laura K suggested earlier there will quite literally not be a vote, not necessarily one with absentions
Can we tell what the DUP did on Letwin? Sammy sounded as if he was opposed.
The BBC is taking his comment "We would be failing in our duty if we did not use every strategy" to defeat the deal as an indication they would back Letwin.
Well Letwin is a way to defeat the deal, that's why Labour are backing it, so their taking it that way makes sense.
I think barring a very unexpected accident this deal will be ratified now. Possibly after a general election. But I think Brexit has won and Boris Johnson has won.
Oh goody, Rebecca Long-Bailey winding up for Labour
She's a bit lightweight isn't she ?
a bit?
Complete and utter. How anyone can view her as the potential leader of a Brownie pack let alone a political party I have no idea.
I was going to type 'major political party' but if she is the best that Labour can offer, it has ceased to be a major anything other than an embarrassment
She just read out her speech. Compare with Gove in action now.
Night and day. Her presentational style is appalling.
If Labour lose the next general election and Corbyn goes and Long-Bailey replaces him hard to see the LDs not overtaking them
You’re optimistic. Hard to see the Greens and the Official Monster Raving Loony Party not overtaking them.
I think barring a very unexpected accident this deal will be ratified now. Possibly after a general election. But I think Brexit has won and Boris Johnson has won.
Yes, this is clear.
Because the Tory party appears to be united behind the deal now - including the ex-Tories who were expelled over the Benn Act - with very few exceptions. The big problem in executing Brexit all along has been the fact that the Tories were so divided. That doesn't apply now.
Can we tell what the DUP did on Letwin? Sammy sounded as if he was opposed.
The BBC is taking his comment "We would be failing in our duty if we did not use every strategy" to defeat the deal as an indication they would back Letwin.
Well Letwin is a way to defeat the deal, that's why Labour are backing it, so their taking it that way makes sense.
To you, maybe.
Well we shall in a few minutes if that was right - given their comments about using every strategy to defeat the deal, we will know if they voted for Letwin it was because they view it as a way to defeat the deal. I will happily apologise for being wrong about Letwin being a strategy to defeat the deal as far as the opposition is concerned if the DUP vote for it. If they don't then we take them at their word, and I was right it was used as a strategy to defeat the deal.
So we are back to see what Macron et al have to say.
No, forget the detail, the momentum is with this Deal. It will pass either today or very soon.
Well I think that is the public sentiment, but we will now need Macron et al to come up with yet another plan to stop MPs playing silly buggers yet again. Another unconditional extension won't solve this but ones with conditions could also anger the pubic / enable MPs to piss about again.
Can we tell what the DUP did on Letwin? Sammy sounded as if he was opposed.
The BBC is taking his comment "We would be failing in our duty if we did not use every strategy" to defeat the deal as an indication they would back Letwin.
Well Letwin is a way to defeat the deal, that's why Labour are backing it, so their taking it that way makes sense.
To you, maybe.
Well we shall in a few minutes if that was right - given their comments about using every strategy to defeat the deal, we will know if they voted for Letwin it was because they view it as a way to defeat the deal. I will happily apologise for being wrong about Letwin being a strategy to defeat the deal as far as the opposition is concerned if the DUP vote for it. If they don't then we take them at their word, and I was right it was used as a strategy to defeat the deal.
The point is that passing the Letwin amendment is not a way of defeating the deal. The deal will either go ahead next week, or else there will be an election and it will go ahead afterwards.
So they are going to refuse to vote for anything yet again. I am so sick of this and this Parliament.
All on the EU. If they only grant a short extension or refuse one then MPs will have to vote for something next week.
If they grant until January 2020 then they can kick the can a bit more.
I think Macron will be against a January 2020 agreement. If Parliament had rejected Boris's MV or amended it to include a referendum then they may have agreed, but to not even take a division on it - no, get serious.
So we are back to see what Macron et al have to say.
No, forget the detail, the momentum is with this Deal. It will pass either today or very soon.
Well I think that is the public sentiment, but we will now need Macron et al to come up with yet another plan to stop MPs playing silly buggers yet again. Another unconditional extension won't solve this but ones with conditions could also anger the pubic / enable MPs to piss about again.
It's simple enough from the EU if they want to do that - Letwin says his amendment was about supporting the deal, just an insurance against no deal. Therefore if it passed as expected they could reasonably say that they reject the suggested date of January and propose one of Novemebr 14th, or something, since MPs have indicated they support.
But it was the EU bar Macron and a few others who wanted to extend until early 2020 in the first place back in April.
Can we tell what the DUP did on Letwin? Sammy sounded as if he was opposed.
The BBC is taking his comment "We would be failing in our duty if we did not use every strategy" to defeat the deal as an indication they would back Letwin.
Well Letwin is a way to defeat the deal, that's why Labour are backing it, so their taking it that way makes sense.
To you, maybe.
Well we shall in a few minutes if that was right - given their comments about using every strategy to defeat the deal, we will know if they voted for Letwin it was because they view it as a way to defeat the deal. I will happily apologise for being wrong about Letwin being a strategy to defeat the deal as far as the opposition is concerned if the DUP vote for it. If they don't then we take them at their word, and I was right it was used as a strategy to defeat the deal.
The point is that passing the Letwin amendment is not a way of defeating the deal. The deal will either go ahead next week, or else there will be an election and it will go ahead afterwards.
It might be if Corbyn then calls a VONC supported by the DUP.
Can we tell what the DUP did on Letwin? Sammy sounded as if he was opposed.
The BBC is taking his comment "We would be failing in our duty if we did not use every strategy" to defeat the deal as an indication they would back Letwin.
Well Letwin is a way to defeat the deal, that's why Labour are backing it, so their taking it that way makes sense.
To you, maybe.
Well we shall in a few minutes if that was right - given their comments about using every strategy to defeat the deal, we will know if they voted for Letwin it was because they view it as a way to defeat the deal. I will happily apologise for being wrong about Letwin being a strategy to defeat the deal as far as the opposition is concerned if the DUP vote for it. If they don't then we take them at their word, and I was right it was used as a strategy to defeat the deal.
The point is that passing the Letwin amendment is not a way of defeating the deal. The deal will either go ahead next week, or else there will be an election and it will go ahead afterwards.
It's a strategy to ensure it is not approved today, and they hope they can defeat it later. I'll take them at their word that they see it as a way of defeating the deal, or rather trying to defeat it. Are they liars? Just because they might not be able to stop does not mean it is not a strategy to attempt to defeat it. Anything that delays its approval is a strategy to attempt to defeat it.
I think some gold desks in the elysee palace will be getting thumped...something along the lines of the f##king British say they want to leave, then every time we show the door, they turn around and say "just one more thing"....
So they are going to refuse to vote for anything yet again. I am so sick of this and this Parliament.
All on the EU. If they only grant a short extension or refuse one then MPs will have to vote for something next week.
If they grant until January 2020 then they can kick the can a bit more.
I think Macron will be against a January 2020 agreement. If Parliament had rejected Boris's MV or amended it to include a referendum then they may have agreed, but to not even take a division on it - no, get serious.
Oh I'm sure Macron will be against that - he was against it before and argued them down to October, though I think he wanted even less time. I just don't know how they will react, and whether the idea they essentially don't say right away that they will grant it is a valid approach, in that parliament then has to really face up to the votes next week as potentially being deal or no deal as the EU have not agreed yet. If they do that Letwin has held ensure proper scrutiny of legislation with no harm.
Comments
"For the purpose of this market any vote on amendments do not count."
Total opposite to the main MV market today :-)
Next step is to see how No.10 play this - it is a stop brexit amendment (not from Letwin, but from most of the others backing it), so how apoplectic will they play it?
"Andrew said:
» show previous quotes
"For the purpose of this market any vote on amendments do not count."
Total opposite to the main MV market today :-)
That just means that the number of votes is on the substantive motion, whether or not it gets amended - rather than the votes for the amendment."
Yes, Sandpit, that`s how I understood it. Hence, if government walks out prior to vote on the mothion the number voting "aye" will certainly be less than 199 - which explains the odds anamoly that I pointed out.
It only depends upon whether Remainer MPs honour democracy or not. They have no excuse of blaming Leavers for rejecting a deal anymore.
No to the substantive motion is now 1.6 on BF Ex - if the amendment passes it should go a lot shorter.
100 Tory abstentions will of course make your 199 or fewer a winner too.
Too late to pull vote surely. Even if it does get pulled worst case scenario on that Beftfair market would be a void bet I think.
... usually behind a flute band.
This rotten and indecisive Parliament doesn’t deserve to continue.
If they grant until January 2020 then they can kick the can a bit more.
Surely it's not a tie, if the DUP are Noes?
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.154849135
But it was the EU bar Macron and a few others who wanted to extend until early 2020 in the first place back in April.
"2.94 on December election looks tasty if this amendment passes.
This rotten and indecisive Parliament doesn’t deserve to continue."
What is the mechanism to call a GE? As I keep saying Corbyn has all the power here and I don`t believe he will table VONC
Noes 306
Ayes 322
Noes 306
Letwin passes
Go Boris!!!!
I will not seek a delay
I do worry that public contempt for Parliament is going to reach alarmingly high levels.