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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Johnson’s phantom majority: why we’re heading for a Christmas

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  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Gabs2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Well done Theresa May for speaking in favour of the Boris Deal, if it passes much of the credit must still go to her for negotiating most of it

    Classic hard cop soft cop.

    May cuts a tough deal then Johnson plays the nice guy and compromises.
    Lol. After months of saying that the EU would never accept Northern Ireland outside being full members of the Customs Union, it is now a softer deal.
    The EU always said that alternative arrangements could replace the backstop. Johnson gave up on the alternative arrangements and chose a permanent framework that separates Northern Ireland.
    The alternative arrangements they wanted was NI in the single market for everything (not just agriculture and industrial goods) and customs territory (not the UK's), and with no right to leave.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Boris is going to be forced to ask for a delay, kicking and screaming.

    It will be glorious.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited October 2019
    isam said:

    It is incredible that parliament would even think of delaying Brexit yet again. Have they no idea what the public think of them?

    Which public do you mean ?

    Is that the public that are 6%, on average, more behind Remain than 2016 ?

    Some on PB do need to get out of their comfort zone a little more often, I'm afraid to report.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    edited October 2019
    kinabalu said:

    So we are back to see what Macron et al have to say.

    No, forget the detail, the momentum is with this Deal. It will pass either today or very soon.
    Agree. But does he have to write the letter?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    HYUFD said:

    Boris says he will stick to committing to delivering the Deal and will refuse to ask for an extension.

    Go Boris!!!!

    Go to jail do not pas go
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,387

    Boris is going to be forced to ask for a delay, kicking and screaming.

    It will be glorious.

    He says he is not compelled by law so to do???
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    When in doubt, delay - the motto of the UK Parliament.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    The deal is now irrelevant. What is relevant is amendments to the withdrawal bill.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Boris is going to be forced to ask for a delay, kicking and screaming.

    It will be glorious.

    If you think this makes our politicians look anything other than complete dicks you are wrong.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    It is incredible that parliament would even think of delaying Brexit yet again. Have they no idea what the public think of them?

    Which public do you mean ?

    Is that the public that are 6%, on average, more behind Remain than 2016 ?

    Some on PB do need to get out of their comfort zone a little more often, I'm afraid to report.
    I mean the public, not political obsessives who are the material of opinion polls
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    edited October 2019

    Boris is going to be forced to ask for a delay, kicking and screaming.

    It will be glorious.

    He says he is not compelled by law so to do???
    He also said his prorogation of Parliament was lawful.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865

    Boris

    I will not seek a delay

    He must send the letter. He has no choice. We can only hope the EU say no.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    kle4 said:

    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    Chris said:

    DavidL said:

    Can we tell what the DUP did on Letwin? Sammy sounded as if he was opposed.

    The BBC is taking his comment "We would be failing in our duty if we did not use every strategy" to defeat the deal as an indication they would back Letwin.
    Well Letwin is a way to defeat the deal, that's why Labour are backing it, so their taking it that way makes sense.
    To you, maybe.
    Well we shall in a few minutes if that was right - given their comments about using every strategy to defeat the deal, we will know if they voted for Letwin it was because they view it as a way to defeat the deal. I will happily apologise for being wrong about Letwin being a strategy to defeat the deal as far as the opposition is concerned if the DUP vote for it. If they don't then we take them at their word, and I was right it was used as a strategy to defeat the deal.
    The point is that passing the Letwin amendment is not a way of defeating the deal. The deal will either go ahead next week, or else there will be an election and it will go ahead afterwards.
    It's a strategy to ensure it is not approved today, and they hope they can defeat it later. I'll take them at their word that they see it as a way of defeating the deal, or rather trying to defeat it. Are they liars? Just because they might not be able to stop does not mean it is not a strategy to attempt to defeat it. Anything that delays its approval is a strategy to attempt to defeat it.
    It does nothing to delay ratification, except for the few hours needed to have a final meaningful vote after the WAIB is passed.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    The Indecisive Parliament once again doing sterling work avoiding actually making a bloody decision.

    I do worry that public contempt for Parliament is going to reach alarmingly high levels.

    Exactly
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    isam said:

    isam said:

    It is incredible that parliament would even think of delaying Brexit yet again. Have they no idea what the public think of them?

    Which public do you mean ?

    Is that the public that are 6%, on average, more behind Remain than 2016 ?

    Some on PB do need to get out of their comfort zone a little more often, I'm afraid to report.
    I mean the public, not political obsessives who are the material of opinion polls
    The public do not care mate.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Boris is going to be forced to ask for a delay, kicking and screaming.

    It will be glorious.

    Remainerism has been reduced to childish hurting of individuals they dislike. It is so pathetic.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Boris is going to be forced to ask for a delay, kicking and screaming.

    It will be glorious.

    He says he is not compelled by law so to do???
    He said he’s not compelled to *negotiate* an extension. I guess that means he can send the letter saying “gizzus an extension” but when the EU says “for what?” he doesn’t answer.
  • Does he have to write the letter today ?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    The deal is now irrelevant. What is relevant is amendments to the withdrawal bill.

    It's about to get a lot more complicated, and Mr Herdson's scenarios are in play. Not sure that Boris can wrangle all the Labour deal supporters through debate on various amendments and add ons.
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438
    Is there a school of thought this is a mistake by Boris, his best chance of winning it today, momentum will move against it in coming days not for it!
  • The deal is now irrelevant. What is relevant is amendments to the withdrawal bill.

    No - The EU now becomes the focus of attention
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Boris

    I will not seek a delay

    I think I agree with him, sort it out now.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Oh dear . The DUP obviousiy aren’t going to be pushed around .
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Boris can’t be surprised that people do not give him the benefit of the doubt.
  • Boris not backing Benn???

    Doesn't have to. Amended motion passed. There is a deal. Benn was anti no-deal.

    See you in court, Jolyon.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Boris absolutely should follow the law, but if a court is going to send the letter for him if he refuses, from his POV why would he not refuse to send it? His supporters care more about his wanting to Brexit than if he followed the letter of the law.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    rpjs said:


    He said he’s not compelled to *negotiate* an extension. I guess that means he can send the letter saying “gizzus an extension” but when the EU says “for what?” he doesn’t answer.

    I think you're probably right - the word negotiate seems to have been carefully chosen.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited October 2019
    isam said:

    isam said:

    It is incredible that parliament would even think of delaying Brexit yet again. Have they no idea what the public think of them?

    Which public do you mean ?

    Is that the public that are 6%, on average, more behind Remain than 2016 ?

    Some on PB do need to get out of their comfort zone a little more often, I'm afraid to report.
    I mean the public, not political obsessives who are the material of opinion polls
    It's the reverse. The public is often apathetic to get this nuisance over in whichever way, which the Tories have cleverly retranslated from "let it be over" to to "get it done".
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Jonathan said:

    Boris can’t be surprised that people do not give him the benefit of the doubt.

    He respected the decision of the Supreme Court as soon as it was made.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    isam said:

    isam said:

    It is incredible that parliament would even think of delaying Brexit yet again. Have they no idea what the public think of them?

    Which public do you mean ?

    Is that the public that are 6%, on average, more behind Remain than 2016 ?

    Some on PB do need to get out of their comfort zone a little more often, I'm afraid to report.
    I mean the public, not political obsessives who are the material of opinion polls
    The public do not care mate.
    Oh they do
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    edited October 2019
    This thread has been amended, substantively negatived and the matter delayed to the next thread.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    Zephyr said:

    Is there a school of thought this is a mistake by Boris, his best chance of winning it today, momentum will move against it in coming days not for it!

    The public is now behind the Boris Deal in all the polls, we now move towards a Tory landslide
  • HYUFD said:

    Ayes 322 Noes 306

    Letwin passes

    Presumably all 306 are for the deal? It doesn't sound like anyone voted No were against the deal?

    In which case 9 who voted for Letwin need to vote for the deal to pass the deal surely? It sounds like there were at least 9 who voted for Letwin who said they would vote for the deal?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    rpjs said:

    Boris is going to be forced to ask for a delay, kicking and screaming.

    It will be glorious.

    He says he is not compelled by law so to do???
    He said he’s not compelled to *negotiate* an extension. I guess that means he can send the letter saying “gizzus an extension” but when the EU says “for what?” he doesn’t answer.
    The EU has said time and again, that they would if there is an election or a referendum...nothing else.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    HYUFD said:

    Zephyr said:

    Is there a school of thought this is a mistake by Boris, his best chance of winning it today, momentum will move against it in coming days not for it!

    The public is now behind the Boris Deal in all the polls, we now move towards a Tory landslide
    TBH - it is hard to see how he ends up a loser out of this

  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    Does he have to write the letter today ?

    Yes.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    Chris said:

    DavidL said:

    Can we tell what the DUP did on Letwin? Sammy sounded as if he was opposed.

    The BBC is taking his comment "We would be failing in our duty if we did not use every strategy" to defeat the deal as an indication they would back Letwin.
    Well Letwin is a way to defeat the deal, that's why Labour are backing it, so their taking it that way makes sense.
    To you, maybe.
    Well we shall in a few minutes if that was right - given their comments about using every strategy to defeat the deal, we will know if they voted for Letwin it was because they view it as a way to defeat the deal. I will happily apologise for being wrong about Letwin being a strategy to defeat the deal as far as the opposition is concerned if the DUP vote for it. If they don't then we take them at their word, and I was right it was used as a strategy to defeat the deal.
    The point is that passing the Letwin amendment is not a way of defeating the deal. The deal will either go ahead next week, or else there will be an election and it will go ahead afterwards.
    It's a strategy to ensure it is not approved today, and they hope they can defeat it later. I'll take them at their word that they see it as a way of defeating the deal, or rather trying to defeat it. Are they liars? Just because they might not be able to stop does not mean it is not a strategy to attempt to defeat it. Anything that delays its approval is a strategy to attempt to defeat it.
    It does nothing to delay ratification, except for the few hours needed to have a final meaningful vote after the WAIB is passed.
    It probably won't. But the DUP and the other opposition parties think it gives them the chance to delay it. I don't know what the problem here is. The fight for remain is still live, none of the opposition would deny that. If they can unite around a referendum I'd even support that.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    edited October 2019
    As the motion has passed (albeit amended) I think this satisfies Benn Act and therefore he no longer needs to send letter. Is this correct?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Boris is going to be forced to ask for a delay, kicking and screaming.

    It will be glorious.

    It depends whether the public blame him for seeking a delay. The polling shows that quite a lot of people won't blame him personally.
  • Does he have to write the letter today ?

    Surely the letter is already written?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    New thread
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Corbyn should go for an election now, it won't get any better. Boris caught BXP on the hop for a news cycle but he won't be able to maintain that for a whole campaign.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    Chris said:

    DavidL said:

    Can we tell what the DUP did on Letwin? Sammy sounded as if he was opposed.

    The BBC is taking his comment "We would be failing in our duty if we did not use every strategy" to defeat the deal as an indication they would back Letwin.
    Well Letwin is a way to defeat the deal, that's why Labour are backing it, so their taking it that way makes sense.
    To you, maybe.
    Well we shall in a few minutes if that was right - given their comments about using every strategy to defeat the deal, we will know if they voted for Letwin it was because they view it as a way to defeat the deal. I will happily apologise for being wrong about Letwin being a strategy to defeat the deal as far as the opposition is concerned if the DUP vote for it. If they don't then we take them at their word, and I was right it was used as a strategy to defeat the deal.
    The point is that passing the Letwin amendment is not a way of defeating the deal. The deal will either go ahead next week, or else there will be an election and it will go ahead afterwards.
    It's a strategy to ensure it is not approved today, and they hope they can defeat it later. I'll take them at their word that they see it as a way of defeating the deal, or rather trying to defeat it. Are they liars? Just because they might not be able to stop does not mean it is not a strategy to attempt to defeat it. Anything that delays its approval is a strategy to attempt to defeat it.
    It does nothing to delay ratification, except for the few hours needed to have a final meaningful vote after the WAIB is passed.
    It’s purely about trying to embarrass the PM. It doesn’t achieve anything practical
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Stocky said:

    As the motion has passed (albeit amended) I think this satisfies Benn Act and therefore he no longer needs to send letter. Is this correct?

    No , the deal wasn’t passed . The motion was amended to say it withholds approval .
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Jonathan said:

    Boris can’t be surprised that people do not give him the benefit of the doubt.

    Strange - the polls say otherwise - its mp's that are the problem
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    AndyJS said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris can’t be surprised that people do not give him the benefit of the doubt.

    He respected the decision of the Supreme Court as soon as it was made.
    He lost trust when Geoffrey Cox went to war. Playing nice today was too little too late.

    He approach reminds me of those infamous people in Oxford who trash restaurants and Play nice, pay for the damage and expect to get away with it.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    Remain fight on.

    It's not over till it's over.

    But it's nearly over.
  • Letwin now full on support for Boris as remainers jaws drop
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,993
    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    So we are back to see what Macron et al have to say.

    No, forget the detail, the momentum is with this Deal. It will pass either today or very soon.
    Agree. But does he have to write the letter?
    Presumably if he doesn’t, the judges in the noble officium case will rule that someone else will have to do so?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,003
    edited October 2019
    Gabs2 said:

    Boris is going to be forced to ask for a delay, kicking and screaming.

    It will be glorious.

    Remainerism has been reduced to childish hurting of individuals they dislike. It is so pathetic.
    Yup, shocking that they've descended to the level of the 'delicious tears of Libtard diehard remoaner scum' brigade.
  • AndyJS said:

    Jonathan said:

    Boris can’t be surprised that people do not give him the benefit of the doubt.

    He respected the decision of the Supreme Court as soon as it was made.
    Indeed and the important point is that the Protogation was not unlawful until it was declared so by the Supreme Court. Boris would only have been breaking the law had he ignored their ruling.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    HYUFD said:

    Ayes 322 Noes 306

    Letwin passes

    Presumably all 306 are for the deal? It doesn't sound like anyone voted No were against the deal?

    In which case 9 who voted for Letwin need to vote for the deal to pass the deal surely? It sounds like there were at least 9 who voted for Letwin who said they would vote for the deal?
    As I understand it if the legislation passes next week the bill can come back and we're out.

    The complication is the letter and the EU's response.

    Unless.... He says to the EU hold off on the decision until after next week and next week the deal passes.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    kle4 said:

    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    Chris said:

    DavidL said:

    Can we tell what the DUP did on Letwin? Sammy sounded as if he was opposed.

    The BBC is taking his comment "We would be failing in our duty if we did not use every strategy" to defeat the deal as an indication they would back Letwin.
    Well Letwin is a way to defeat the deal, that's why Labour are backing it, so their taking it that way makes sense.
    To you, maybe.
    Well we shall in a few minutes if that was right - given their comments about using every strategy to defeat the deal, we will know if they voted for Letwin it was because they view it as a way to defeat the deal. I will happily apologise for being wrong about Letwin being a strategy to defeat the deal as far as the opposition is concerned if the DUP vote for it. If they don't then we take them at their word, and I was right it was used as a strategy to defeat the deal.
    The point is that passing the Letwin amendment is not a way of defeating the deal. The deal will either go ahead next week, or else there will be an election and it will go ahead afterwards.
    It's a strategy to ensure it is not approved today, and they hope they can defeat it later. I'll take them at their word that they see it as a way of defeating the deal, or rather trying to defeat it. Are they liars? Just because they might not be able to stop does not mean it is not a strategy to attempt to defeat it. Anything that delays its approval is a strategy to attempt to defeat it.
    It does nothing to delay ratification, except for the few hours needed to have a final meaningful vote after the WAIB is passed.
    It probably won't. But the DUP and the other opposition parties think it gives them the chance to delay it. I don't know what the problem here is. The fight for remain is still live, none of the opposition would deny that. If they can unite around a referendum I'd even support that.
    The only problem will be if there isn't a majority for the deal. That would have been a problem in any case.

    If there isn't a majority for the deal now, I'm sure there will be one after a general election.
  • sarissa said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    So we are back to see what Macron et al have to say.

    No, forget the detail, the momentum is with this Deal. It will pass either today or very soon.
    Agree. But does he have to write the letter?
    Presumably if he doesn’t, the judges in the noble officium case will rule that someone else will have to do so?
    I think the EU UK Ambassador serves it to their meeting tomorrow morning

    Conservatives walk out on Joanna Cherry
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ayes 322 Noes 306

    Letwin passes

    Presumably all 306 are for the deal? It doesn't sound like anyone voted No were against the deal?

    In which case 9 who voted for Letwin need to vote for the deal to pass the deal surely? It sounds like there were at least 9 who voted for Letwin who said they would vote for the deal?
    As I understand it if the legislation passes next week the bill can come back and we're out.

    The complication is the letter and the EU's response.

    Unless.... He says to the EU hold off on the decision until after next week and next week the deal passes.
    The timescale that's been suggested for an EU decision is the week after next in any case.
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438
    Floater said:

    HYUFD said:

    Zephyr said:

    Is there a school of thought this is a mistake by Boris, his best chance of winning it today, momentum will move against it in coming days not for it!

    The public is now behind the Boris Deal in all the polls, we now move towards a Tory landslide
    TBH - it is hard to see how he ends up a loser out of this

    There’s a lot of just get it out of my life built into those polls isn’t there? Would it win a Boris deal v revoke plebiscite?
  • nico67 said:

    Oh dear . The DUP obviousiy aren’t going to be pushed around .

    I'm curious as to why the DUP aren't in uproar about the all Ireland team which played rugby today.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    Who were the Labour MPs who voted against the Letwin amendment?
This discussion has been closed.