DUP sources complaining no one treats them as super special enough, shocker.
Yes, they've been thrown under the bus, but they are so bloody self righteous, they act like how could anyone possibly act other than they want them to, when they just sit there and bellow out no over and over again.
I'm going against the crowd and the media pundits on this. I reckon the Letwin amendment makes an October 31st exit with the deal more likely, indeed very likely.
The reason I say this is that I think that people are missing one small but hugely important point about how the EU would react to a request today under the Benn Act for an extension. There is no chance of them giving an instant answer. They have no obligation to respond promptly to an Article 50 request. Even in 'normal' circumstances, it would take them some time to go through the procedures of consultation followed by a formal Council summit (even if the latter is done by conference call).
But these are not normal circumstances at all. They can see the parliamentary position as well as we can. They want to get this deal done, if only in the hope of moving on from the debilitating psychodrama, but also to end the business uncertainty for a while at least. They know that accepting the extension would quite possibly mean that things drag on. Equally they know that refusing the extension might lead to the disaster of a no-deal crash out. So what do they do?
Answer: nothing. They reply to Boris saying they note the request, and will respond once they've made a decision. And then sit on their hands. After all, they have over a week before they have to make a decision. They will also probably repeat that they hope the UK can agree the deal in time for the 31st. Macron and perhaps a few others say they are minded to refuse an extension.
Meanwhile, Boris tries again to get his deal through parliament. This time, with the extension issue in the EU's hands, MPs have a straight decision: back the deal, or either a no-deal crash out or an extension might happen, completely outside parliament's control by this stage. Letwin and the rebel alliance have shot their bolt, admittedly having obtained an insurance policy to stop no-deal, but it's an insurance policy which they can't be sure will be honoured. At the same time, Boris can address the concern which Letwin was worried about, by introducing the full legislation to ratify. Crucially, the EU don't need to respond to the extension request until AFTER that legislation is in place (or definitively rejected). That uncertainty makes the deal more likely to pass.
The argument against that is that Boris, despite having very much a minority government and despite disappointing the DUP, has somehow managed to build a momentum behind this deal and the desire to get this done. If he loses today on the Letwin amendment I find it almost impossible to believe that he could rebuild that momentum for next week. The fragile confluence of interests that he has put together would not hold. He needs to win today or he will not win before a GE.
If Johnson's deal fails by only a few votes, or the Lettwin amendment is carried by only a few votes, I think there is a good prospect that the EU will formally reject the request for an extension in order to force parliament to go back and adopt Johnson's deal. It is even conceivable that we could leave on 31st October without a deal, only to see the deal adopted in the first days of November.
The latest polls showing the public swinging further behind Johnson will I think harden the EU's resolve to try and nail down Johnson's deal now rather than leave things up in the air until after a GE.
The Great British Public is, as the saying goes, fed up to the left tit with the whole business. When it was asked it voted, albeit by a small majority, to Leave. Since then, as far as it is concerned the House of Commons has farted about and got nowhere. I voted Remain, I’d happily Revoke the Article 50 letter, but I fully understand why people want it over. Somehow. If out is the only way forward, then out. Since I don’t trust Boris, Rees-Mogg, Patel et al further than I can spit upwind I expect that Leaving under their, and especially Boris’ ‘leadership’ is almost certain to be a total disaster for anyone not involved in financial shenanigans. However I fear that our only course is to Leave, with the hope of Rejoining when the majority realises what an awful mess we are in.
I accept the principle that the British people voted to leave but I reject each deal that the UK government has been able to negotiate and leaving without a deal at all.
disingenuous and incoherent (edit: not you but DG of course!)
Trying to somehow cheat the referendum isn't the way to go. The LDs actually now have a sensible policy. Stand for what you believe, and that stance is to override the referendum explicitly.
I accept the principle that the British people voted to leave but I reject each deal that the UK government has been able to negotiate and leaving without a deal at all.
disingenuous and incoherent
Just plain dishonest. I would have more respect if he simply admitted that his position is that the people got it wrong and he knew better.
What do we reckon, that it passes if the amendment falls, and vice versa?
If Letwin passes it sounds like the BF market will void as there will be no motion put due to lack of a teller or something vaguely victorian like that.
If Letwin passes it sounds like the BF market will void as there will be no motion put due to lack of a teller or something vaguely victorian like that.
Depends - the initial threat on Letwin was the Tories would pull the vote or abstain. However they'll have been phoning various European/EU leaders since, and if they get a commitment to delay an extension reply until later next week, the vote probably goes ahead. They can pass the various bits of legislation next week under the threat of no extension.
One of the positives of the next Parliament is that Anna Soubry will not be in it.
A most unpleasant woman. Was she the one bemoaning "the posh boys" Osborne and Cameron? I wonder if she yearns now for the days before Brexit when they were in charge?
One of the positives of the next Parliament is that Anna Soubry will not be in it.
A most unpleasant woman. Was she the one bemoaning "the posh boys" Osborne and Cameron? I wonder if she yearns now for the days before Brexit when they were in charge?
Be nice if Letwin is a tie and Bercow has to vote against it
"Has to" is doing a lot of heavy lifting there.
Speaker Dennisons Rule is crystal clear on that point! If he were to break that rule at that point it would be a constitutional outrage greater than any he has done yet.
One of the positives of the next Parliament is that Anna Soubry will not be in it.
A most unpleasant woman. Was she the one bemoaning "the posh boys" Osborne and Cameron? I wonder if she yearns now for the days before Brexit when they were in charge?
No, you’re confusing her with Nadine Dorries.
You're right thanks. Another unpleasant individual.
Oh goody, Rebecca Long-Bailey winding up for Labour
She's a bit lightweight isn't she ?
a bit?
Complete and utter. How anyone can view her as the potential leader of a Brownie pack let alone a political party I have no idea.
I was going to type 'major political party' but if she is the best that Labour can offer, it has ceased to be a major anything other than an embarrassment
I'm going against the crowd and the media pundits on this. I reckon the Letwin amendment makes an October 31st exit with the deal more likely, indeed very likely.
The reason I say this is that I think that people are missing one small but hugely important point about how the EU would react to a request today under the Benn Act for an extension. There is no chance of them giving an instant answer. They have no obligation to respond promptly to an Article 50 request. Even in 'normal' circumstances, it would take them some time to go through the procedures of consultation followed by a formal Council summit (even if the latter is done by conference call).
But these are not normal circumstances at all. They can see the parliamentary position as well as we can. They want to get this deal done, if only in the hope of moving on from the debilitating psychodrama, but also to end the business uncertainty for a while at least. They know that accepting the extension would quite possibly mean that things drag on. Equally they know that refusing the extension might lead to the disaster of a no-deal crash out. So what do they do?
Answer: nothing. They reply to Boris saying they note the request, and will respond once they've made a decision. And then sit on their hands. After all, they have over a week before they have to make a decision. They will also probably repeat that they hope the UK can agree the deal in time for the 31st. Macron and perhaps a few others say they are minded to refuse an extension.
Meanwhile, Boris tries again to get his deal through parliament. This time, with the extension issue in the EU's hands, MPs have a straight decision: back the deal, or either a no-deal crash out or an extension might happen, completely outside parliament's control by this stage. Letwin and the rebel alliance have shot their bolt, admittedly having obtained an insurance policy to stop no-deal, but it's an insurance policy which they can't be sure will be honoured. At the same time, Boris can address the concern which Letwin was worried about, by introducing the full legislation to ratify. Crucially, the EU don't need to respond to the extension request until AFTER that legislation is in place (or definitively rejected). That uncertainty makes the deal more likely to pass.
I think that's a bit too convoluted to be a plan - the sides in this react with a focus on 5 minutes from now, no more.
Oh goody, Rebecca Long-Bailey winding up for Labour
She's a bit lightweight isn't she ?
a bit?
Complete and utter. How anyone can view her as the potential leader of a Brownie pack let alone a political party I have no idea.
I was going to type 'major political party' but if she is the best that Labour can offer, it has ceased to be a major anything other than an embarrassment
She just read out her speech. Compare with Gove in action now.
Oh goody, Rebecca Long-Bailey winding up for Labour
She's a bit lightweight isn't she ?
a bit?
Complete and utter. How anyone can view her as the potential leader of a Brownie pack let alone a political party I have no idea.
I was going to type 'major political party' but if she is the best that Labour can offer, it has ceased to be a major anything other than an embarrassment
Disagree, it’s a major shambles as well as embarrassment.
Oh goody, Rebecca Long-Bailey winding up for Labour
She's a bit lightweight isn't she ?
a bit?
Complete and utter. How anyone can view her as the potential leader of a Brownie pack let alone a political party I have no idea.
I was going to type 'major political party' but if she is the best that Labour can offer, it has ceased to be a major anything other than an embarrassment
She just read out her speech. Compare with Gove in action now.
Night and day. Her presentational style is appalling.
Does anyone have the exact wording of the Letwin amendment to hand?
Amendment (a) Sir Oliver Letwin Hilary Benn Jo Swinson Liz Saville Roberts Stephen Gethins Mr David Gauke Margaret Beckett Dr Phillip Lee Nick Boles Mr Sam Gyimah Tom Brake Mr Dominic Grieve Mr Philip Hammond Anna Soubry Line 3, leave out from “deal,” to end and add “this House has considered the matter but withholds approval unless and until implementing legislation is passed.”.
Gove smacking it out the park. Won't change anything of course but he's good.
Beauty, as always, seems to be in the eye of the beholder.
I am really talking about the style than the substance. Of course we have different views on that but as a public speaker the contrast between this and RLB is just painful.
Oh goody, Rebecca Long-Bailey winding up for Labour
She's a bit lightweight isn't she ?
a bit?
Complete and utter. How anyone can view her as the potential leader of a Brownie pack let alone a political party I have no idea.
I was going to type 'major political party' but if she is the best that Labour can offer, it has ceased to be a major anything other than an embarrassment
She just read out her speech. Compare with Gove in action now.
Does anyone have the exact wording of the Letwin amendment to hand?
Amendment (a) Sir Oliver Letwin Hilary Benn Jo Swinson Liz Saville Roberts Stephen Gethins Mr David Gauke Margaret Beckett Dr Phillip Lee Nick Boles Mr Sam Gyimah Tom Brake Mr Dominic Grieve Mr Philip Hammond Anna Soubry Line 3, leave out from “deal,” to end and add “this House has considered the matter but withholds approval unless and until implementing legislation is passed.”.
Yes, I see what Letwin means about the motion still being indicative approval when that is added. Makes total sense.
Does anyone have the exact wording of the Letwin amendment to hand?
Amendment (a) Sir Oliver Letwin Hilary Benn Jo Swinson Liz Saville Roberts Stephen Gethins Mr David Gauke Margaret Beckett Dr Phillip Lee Nick Boles Mr Sam Gyimah Tom Brake Mr Dominic Grieve Mr Philip Hammond Anna Soubry Line 3, leave out from “deal,” to end and add “this House has considered the matter but withholds approval unless and until implementing legislation is passed.”.
There is a Batfair market entitled: "UK - Brexit - How many MPs will vote 'Aye' on Brexit motion?" Odds are curiously low on 199 or less (10/1). 200-209 = 100/1.
Is there an opportunity here? - I think some smart punters have twigged that if Tories leave the chamber the MV vote still proceeds and "aye" will consequently be very low.
Oh goody, Rebecca Long-Bailey winding up for Labour
She's a bit lightweight isn't she ?
a bit?
Complete and utter. How anyone can view her as the potential leader of a Brownie pack let alone a political party I have no idea.
I was going to type 'major political party' but if she is the best that Labour can offer, it has ceased to be a major anything other than an embarrassment
She just read out her speech. Compare with Gove in action now.
Night and day. Her presentational style is appalling.
She gives the impression of not understanding what she’s reading, she’s just saying what’s on the page in front of her. Big contrast with Michael Gove, who’s always very good on his feet.
By my reckoning the Letwin Amendment will pass - anyone disagree?
It would be very surprising if it doesn't pass.
Following this thread there were a few comments it might not, but from when it was announced there seemed little doubt among the general view of the commentariat. Unless the DUP actively vote it down it looks like a pass to me, and I don't know why they would do that nor were they even stated to be considering it. I look forward to being proven wrong.
Well done Theresa May for speaking in favour of the Boris Deal, if it passes much of the credit must still go to her for negotiating most of it
Classic hard cop soft cop.
May cuts a tough deal then Johnson plays the nice guy and compromises.
Lol. After months of saying that the EU would never accept Northern Ireland outside being full members of the Customs Union, it is now a softer deal.
The EU always said that alternative arrangements could replace the backstop. Johnson gave up on the alternative arrangements and chose a permanent framework that separates Northern Ireland.
Comments
Yes, they've been thrown under the bus, but they are so bloody self righteous, they act like how could anyone possibly act other than they want them to, when they just sit there and bellow out no over and over again.
I voted Remain, I’d happily Revoke the Article 50 letter, but I fully understand why people want it over. Somehow. If out is the only way forward, then out.
Since I don’t trust Boris, Rees-Mogg, Patel et al further than I can spit upwind I expect that Leaving under their, and especially Boris’ ‘leadership’ is almost certain to be a total disaster for anyone not involved in financial shenanigans. However I fear that our only course is to Leave, with the hope of Rejoining when the majority realises what an awful mess we are in.
Stopping say 'source' when we can all tell from the belligerent nature of the words that it has to be Cummings.
(edit: not you but DG of course!)
Trying to somehow cheat the referendum isn't the way to go. The LDs actually now have a sensible policy. Stand for what you believe, and that stance is to override the referendum explicitly.
If Japan can beat the Springboks, they'll be up against Wales or France, and have a chance of beating either. Hope they can do well.
What do we reckon, that it passes if the amendment falls, and vice versa?
The xtra one over the FT estimate makes up for loss of Norman Lamb.
So all down to whether there are more Lab and/or whether all indie conservatives back it (so far Greening and Letwin out I think)?
The DUP votes against Letwin and against the deal
😂
"Be nice if Letwin is a tie and Bercow has to vote against it"
imagine the uproar if he broke president and voted for it! Wouldn`t put it past him.
So indeed he might break the rule.
May cuts a tough deal then Johnson plays the nice guy and compromises.
Complete and utter. How anyone can view her as the potential leader of a Brownie pack let alone a political party I have no idea.
I was going to type 'major political party' but if she is the best that Labour can offer, it has ceased to be a major anything other than an embarrassment
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/19/ukip-attempts-to-suspend-leader-amid-fresh-power-struggle-within-party-richard-braine
Sir Oliver Letwin
Hilary Benn
Jo Swinson
Liz Saville Roberts
Stephen Gethins
Mr David Gauke
Margaret Beckett Dr Phillip Lee Nick Boles
Mr Sam Gyimah Tom Brake Mr Dominic Grieve
Mr Philip Hammond Anna Soubry
Line 3, leave out from “deal,” to end and add “this House has considered the matter
but withholds approval unless and until implementing legislation is passed.”.
twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1185108039889805312/photo/1
Is there an opportunity here? - I think some smart punters have twigged that if Tories leave the chamber the MV vote still proceeds and "aye" will consequently be very low.
Thoughts?
Letwin first
Edit: wizardry from JB below.