Caroline Flint has stood up against bigotry and racism many times while most of the Labour Party tacitly endorsed bigotry and anti-Semitism. I would return to voting Labour in an instant if she was leader, rather than the terrorist supporting bigots of Corbyn and McDonnell.
But you fib relentlessly on here about having voted Remain.
So, you know, pinch of ...
I voted Remain, then advocated for SM+CU, then advocated for May's deal, then advocated for any deal, then advocated for Boris' deal. Maybe if my fellow Remainers weren't such undemocratic fools we wouldn't keep losing so much. So perhaps reflect on your own behaviour before making up lies about others.
He's not very good though if its his specialist subject. Doomed on the general knowledge I'd guess.
No, he's good. Objectively, he is.
Loved your 'tool' comment - very witty - but TBH if you genuinely think he's a tool, you are allowing political bias to cloud your judgement.
Which is understandable. I can usually avoid that, but it's quite a rare thing.
No I don't think he's a tool. Was a comment purely in jest. He's a bit dull, but he's thoughtful, and I think he's worth listening to. I do think he's being a bit disingenuous for political reasons.
PS. So objectively (as it seems to me) I think he's quite poor.
Spin suspended and came back - prolyl took a bit hit on the sell Ayes.
I wonder what they'd do if someone bet £1k sells, Letwin passes, Tories abstain, and number of Ayes ends up at something like 10 (ie 300k profit). Guessing they'd void …. which is why I didn't touch it.
* There are several votes this afternoon. * Each will affect the other. * The final outcome will affect the betting markets and the currency. * But we do not know the outcome nor the effect * Given the lack of useful information and a low signal-to-noise ratio, I can't glean anything useful from this. * So I will go out for the afternoon and will return in the evening.
For the UK left this feels very like 1983. It is divided, impotent, disastrously led and faced with a Prime Minister in complete charge of his own party and with 40% of the country solidly and unwaveringly behind him.
England are in for a hiding next weekend if New Zealand play like that again.
Hopefully they got their utterly unstoppable performance out of the way today. When the ABs play like that, no team in the world stands a chance against them.
I see Mrs May is still putting Party before Country...
Some would say she is putting the Country first
I expect a Party loyalist like you to say no less.
She (like Boris) said there should be no border in the Irish Sea and now she is backing exactly that.
There is no border in the Irish Sea. The Customs territory border is at the ROI border. There will just be checks at ports, just like there are right now. Plus Northern Ireland can leave the arrangement every four years if it proves to be disliked.
Matthew Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) Tweeted: Theresa May:
"When we voted overwhelmingly to give the choice of EU membership to the British people did we really mean it? When we voted to trigger Article 50 did we really mean it? When the two main parties stood on manifestos to deliver #Brexit did we really mean it?"
I see Mrs May is still putting Party before Country...
Some would say she is putting the Country first
I expect a Party loyalist like you to say no less.
She (like Boris) said there should be no border in the Irish Sea and now she is backing exactly that.
There is no border in the Irish Sea. The Customs territory border is at the ROI border. There will just be checks at ports, just like there are right now. Plus Northern Ireland can leave the arrangement every four years if it proves to be disliked.
Matthew Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) Tweeted: Theresa May:
"When we voted overwhelmingly to give the choice of EU membership to the British people did we really mean it? When we voted to trigger Article 50 did we really mean it? When the two main parties stood on manifestos to deliver #Brexit did we really mean it?"
When she said no border in the Irish Sea, did she mean it?
I see Mrs May is still putting Party before Country...
Some would say she is putting the Country first
I expect a Party loyalist like you to say no less.
She (like Boris) said there should be no border in the Irish Sea and now she is backing exactly that.
There is no border in the Irish Sea. The Customs territory border is at the ROI border. There will just be checks at ports, just like there are right now. Plus Northern Ireland can leave the arrangement every four years if it proves to be disliked.
This is why David Trimble can support it.
Trimble takes the Conservative Whip.
Which means nothing in the Lords. As proved by the fact he opposed May's deal.
Ah Ken Clarke. We really missed out not having him as PM. Hard to disagree with anything he said. For all his reservations, however, he backs the deal. Also backs Letwin, unfortunately.
I see Mrs May is still putting Party before Country...
Some would say she is putting the Country first
I expect a Party loyalist like you to say no less.
She (like Boris) said there should be no border in the Irish Sea and now she is backing exactly that.
There is no border in the Irish Sea. The Customs territory border is at the ROI border. There will just be checks at ports, just like there are right now. Plus Northern Ireland can leave the arrangement every four years if it proves to be disliked.
This is why David Trimble can support it.
Trimble takes the Conservative Whip.
Which means nothing in the Lords. As proved by the fact he opposed May's deal.
If Johnson's deal fails by only a few votes, or the Lettwin amendment is carried by only a few votes, I think there is a good prospect that the EU will formally reject the request for an extension in order to force parliament to go back and adopt Johnson's deal. It is even conceivable that we could leave on 31st October without a deal, only to see the deal adopted in the first days of November.
The latest polls showing the public swinging further behind Johnson will I think harden the EU's resolve to try and nail down Johnson's deal now rather than leave things up in the air until after a GE.
I voted Remain, then advocated for SM+CU, then advocated for May's deal, then advocated for any deal, then advocated for Boris' deal. Maybe if my fellow Remainers weren't such undemocratic fools we wouldn't keep losing so much. So perhaps reflect on your own behaviour before making up lies about others.
I see Mrs May is still putting Party before Country...
Some would say she is putting the Country first
I expect a Party loyalist like you to say no less.
She (like Boris) said there should be no border in the Irish Sea and now she is backing exactly that.
No there won't be. The Agreement literally says that Northern Ireland is recognised as part of the United Kingdom's customs territory.
All there will be is some special arrangements controlled by devolution to Stormont. I don't see anyone who backs devolution can oppose that....
The agreement imposed a de facto customs border separating NI from the rest of the UK. That might not matter to you (or indeed to me, FWIW), but as someone who was rather absolutist in their view of May’s deal, you ought to be able to recognise its unacceptability to those for whom it does matter. They are similarly unshakeably convinced of their rectitude.
No I don't think he's a tool. Was a comment purely in jest. He's a bit dull, but he's thoughtful, and I think he's worth listening to. I do think he's being a bit disingenuous for political reasons.
PS. So objectively (as it seems to me) I think he's quite poor.
No I don't think he's a tool. Was a comment purely in jest. He's a bit dull, but he's thoughtful, and I think he's worth listening to. I do think he's being a bit disingenuous for political reasons.
PS. So objectively (as it seems to me) I think he's quite poor.
No I don't think he's a tool. Was a comment purely in jest. He's a bit dull, but he's thoughtful, and I think he's worth listening to. I do think he's being a bit disingenuous for political reasons.
PS. So objectively (as it seems to me) I think he's quite poor.
OK
But how do you know you're being objective?
I have a special button that I press.
I've no way of knowing that I'm being objective of course. I know when I'm not being so, and as I know there's a difference then I know that when I think I'm being objective there's a good chance that I'm being closer to objective than I usually am.
I have a mathematical hat, and I think that sort of helps in giving me some sort of lodestone as to objectivity.
I'm going against the crowd and the media pundits on this. I reckon the Letwin amendment makes an October 31st exit with the deal more likely, indeed very likely.
The reason I say this is that I think that people are missing one small but hugely important point about how the EU would react to a request today under the Benn Act for an extension. There is no chance of them giving an instant answer. They have no obligation to respond promptly to an Article 50 request. Even in 'normal' circumstances, it would take them some time to go through the procedures of consultation followed by a formal Council summit (even if the latter is done by conference call).
But these are not normal circumstances at all. They can see the parliamentary position as well as we can. They want to get this deal done, if only in the hope of moving on from the debilitating psychodrama, but also to end the business uncertainty for a while at least. They know that accepting the extension would quite possibly mean that things drag on. Equally they know that refusing the extension might lead to the disaster of a no-deal crash out. So what do they do?
Answer: nothing. They reply to Boris saying they note the request, and will respond once they've made a decision. And then sit on their hands. After all, they have over a week before they have to make a decision. They will also probably repeat that they hope the UK can agree the deal in time for the 31st. Macron and perhaps a few others say they are minded to refuse an extension.
Meanwhile, Boris tries again to get his deal through parliament. This time, with the extension issue in the EU's hands, MPs have a straight decision: back the deal, or either a no-deal crash out or an extension might happen, completely outside parliament's control by this stage. Letwin and the rebel alliance have shot their bolt, admittedly having obtained an insurance policy to stop no-deal, but it's an insurance policy which they can't be sure will be honoured. At the same time, Boris can address the concern which Letwin was worried about, by introducing the full legislation to ratify. Crucially, the EU don't need to respond to the extension request until AFTER that legislation is in place (or definitively rejected). That uncertainty makes the deal more likely to pass.
No I don't think he's a tool. Was a comment purely in jest. He's a bit dull, but he's thoughtful, and I think he's worth listening to. I do think he's being a bit disingenuous for political reasons.
PS. So objectively (as it seems to me) I think he's quite poor.
I'm going against the crowd and the media pundits on this. I reckon the Letwin amendment makes an October 31st exit with the deal more likely, indeed very likely.
The reason I say this is that I think that people are missing one small but hugely important point about how the EU would react to a request today under the Benn Act for an extension. There is no chance of them giving an instant answer. They have no obligation to respond promptly to an Article 50 request. Even in 'normal' circumstances, it would take them some time to go through the procedures of consultation followed by a formal Council summit (even if the latter is done by conference call).
But these are not normal circumstances at all. They can see the parliamentary position as well as we can. They want to get this deal done, if only in the hope of moving on from the debilitating psychodrama, but also to end the business uncertainty for a while at least. They know that accepting the extension would quite possibly mean that things drag on. Equally they know that refusing the extension might lead to the disaster of a no-deal crash out. So what do they do?
Answer: nothing. They reply to Boris saying they note the request, and will respond once they've made a decision. And then sit on their hands. After all, they have over a week before they have to make a decision. They will also probably repeat that they hope the UK can agree the deal in time for the 31st. Macron and perhaps a few others say they are minded to refuse an extension.
Meanwhile, Boris tries again to get his deal through parliament. This time, with the extension issue in the EU's hands, MPs have a straight decision: back the deal, or either a no-deal crash out or an extension might happen, completely outside parliament's control by this stage. Letwin and the rebel alliance have shot their bolt, admittedly having obtained an insurance policy to stop no-deal, but it's an insurance policy which they can't be sure will be honoured. At the same time, Boris can address the concern which Letwin was worried about, by introducing the full legislation to ratify. Crucially, the EU don't need to respond to the extension request until AFTER that legislation is in place (or definitively rejected). That uncertainty makes the deal more likely to pass.
Very good points.
The EU now have a far better deal than they did previously, the Irish especially, so they will do everything they can to see it pass.
I'm going against the crowd and the media pundits on this. I reckon the Letwin amendment makes an October 31st exit with the deal more likely, indeed very likely.
The reason I say this is that I think that people are missing one small but hugely important point about how the EU would react to a request today under the Benn Act for an extension. There is no chance of them giving an instant answer. They have no obligation to respond promptly to an Article 50 request. Even in 'normal' circumstances, it would take them some time to go through the procedures of consultation followed by a formal Council summit (even if the latter is done by conference call).
But these are not normal circumstances at all. They can see the parliamentary position as well as we can. They want to get this deal done, if only in the hope of moving on from the debilitating psychodrama, but also to end the business uncertainty for a while at least. They know that accepting the extension would quite possibly mean that things drag on. Equally they know that refusing the extension might lead to the disaster of a no-deal crash out. So what do they do?
Answer: nothing. They reply to Boris saying they note the request, and will respond once they've made a decision. And then sit on their hands. After all, they have over a week before they have to make a decision. They will also probably repeat that they hope the UK can agree the deal in time for the 31st. Macron and perhaps a few others say they are minded to refuse an extension.
Meanwhile, Boris tries again to get his deal through parliament. This time, with the extension issue in the EU's hands, MPs have a straight decision: back the deal, or either a no-deal crash out or an extension might happen, completely outside parliament's control by this stage. Letwin and the rebel alliance have shot their bolt, admittedly having obtained an insurance policy to stop no-deal, but it's an insurance policy which they can't be sure will be honoured. At the same time, Boris can address the concern which Letwin was worried about, by introducing the full legislation to ratify. Crucially, the EU don't need to respond to the extension request until AFTER that legislation is in place (or definitively rejected). That uncertainty makes the deal more likely to pass.
I'm going against the crowd and the media pundits on this. I reckon the Letwin amendment makes an October 31st exit with the deal more likely, indeed very likely.
The reason I say this is that I think that people are missing one small but hugely important point about how the EU would react to a request today under the Benn Act for an extension. There is no chance of them giving an instant answer. They have no obligation to respond promptly to an Article 50 request. Even in 'normal' circumstances, it would take them some time to go through the procedures of consultation followed by a formal Council summit (even if the latter is done by conference call).
But these are not normal circumstances at all. They can see the parliamentary position as well as we can. They want to get this deal done, if only in the hope of moving on from the debilitating psychodrama, but also to end the business uncertainty for a while at least. They know that accepting the extension would quite possibly mean that things drag on. Equally they know that refusing the extension might lead to the disaster of a no-deal crash out. So what do they do?
Answer: nothing. They reply to Boris saying they note the request, and will respond once they've made a decision. And then sit on their hands. After all, they have over a week before they have to make a decision. They will also probably repeat that they hope the UK can agree the deal in time for the 31st. Macron and perhaps a few others say they are minded to refuse an extension.
Meanwhile, Boris tries again to get his deal through parliament. This time, with the extension issue in the EU's hands, MPs have a straight decision: back the deal, or either a no-deal crash out or an extension might happen, completely outside parliament's control by this stage. Letwin and the rebel alliance have shot their bolt, admittedly having obtained an insurance policy to stop no-deal, but it's an insurance policy which they can't be sure will be honoured. At the same time, Boris can address the concern which Letwin was worried about, by introducing the full legislation to ratify. Crucially, the EU don't need to respond to the extension request until AFTER that legislation is in place (or definitively rejected). That uncertainty makes the deal more likely to pass.
I think I'd be very confused if I got an extension request from the UK now as a european leader.
I'm going against the crowd and the media pundits on this. I reckon the Letwin amendment makes an October 31st exit with the deal more likely, indeed very likely.
The reason I say this is that I think that people are missing one small but hugely important point about how the EU would react to a request today under the Benn Act for an extension. There is no chance of them giving an instant answer. They have no obligation to respond promptly to an Article 50 request. Even in 'normal' circumstances, it would take them some time to go through the procedures of consultation followed by a formal Council summit (even if the latter is done by conference call).
But these are not normal circumstances at all. They can see the parliamentary position as well as we can. They want to get this deal done, if only in the hope of moving on from the debilitating psychodrama, but also to end the business uncertainty for a while at least. They know that accepting the extension would quite possibly mean that things drag on. Equally they know that refusing the extension might lead to the disaster of a no-deal crash out. So what do they do?
Answer: nothing. They reply to Boris saying they note the request, and will respond once they've made a decision. And then sit on their hands. After all, they have over a week before they have to make a decision. They will also probably repeat that they hope the UK can agree the deal in time for the 31st. Macron and perhaps a few others say they are minded to refuse an extension.
Meanwhile, Boris tries again to get his deal through parliament. This time, with the extension issue in the EU's hands, MPs have a straight decision: back the deal, or either a no-deal crash out or an extension might happen, completely outside parliament's control by this stage. Letwin and the rebel alliance have shot their bolt, admittedly having obtained an insurance policy to stop no-deal, but it's an insurance policy which they can't be sure will be honoured. At the same time, Boris can address the concern which Letwin was worried about, by introducing the full legislation to ratify. Crucially, the EU don't need to respond to the extension request until AFTER that legislation is in place (or definitively rejected). That uncertainty makes the deal more likely to pass.
That’s a very good point. The EU can play hardball by saying nothing, and work with Boris to wait until Letwin and co blink.
On a similar basis, Boris probably therefore should have sent the letter last night, and wielded the “we’ll think about it” letter today.
Matthew Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) Tweeted: Theresa May:
"When we voted overwhelmingly to give the choice of EU membership to the British people did we really mean it? When we voted to trigger Article 50 did we really mean it? When the two main parties stood on manifestos to deliver #Brexit did we really mean it?"
When she said no border in the Irish Sea, did she mean it?
When she voted against implementing Scottish and Welsh devolution did she really mean it.
I accept the principle that the British people voted to leave but I reject each deal that the UK government has been able to negotiate and leaving without a deal at all.
I think I'd be very confused if I got an extension request from the UK now as a european leader.
Actually that's another reason why they'll be reluctant to respond if they can avoid doing so. As per normal procedure, they really want to deal with the UK government, not parliament. A mess where parliament wants one thing and the government the opposite is a mess where they'd try to avoid taking sides, if they can.
I'm going against the crowd and the media pundits on this. I reckon the Letwin amendment makes an October 31st exit with the deal more likely, indeed very likely.
The reason I say this is that I think that people are missing one small but hugely important point about how the EU would react to a request today under the Benn Act for an extension. There is no chance of them giving an instant answer. They have no obligation to respond promptly to an Article 50 request. Even in 'normal' circumstances, it would take them some time to go through the procedures of consultation followed by a formal Council summit (even if the latter is done by conference call).
But these are not normal circumstances at all. They can see the parliamentary position as well as we can. They want to get this deal done, if only in the hope of moving on from the debilitating psychodrama, but also to end the business uncertainty for a while at least. They know that accepting the extension would quite possibly mean that things drag on. Equally they know that refusing the extension might lead to the disaster of a no-deal crash out. So what do they do?
Answer: nothing. They reply to Boris saying they note the request, and will respond once they've made a decision. And then sit on their hands. After all, they have over a week before they have to make a decision. They will also probably repeat that they hope the UK can agree the deal in time for the 31st. Macron and perhaps a few others say they are minded to refuse an extension.
Meanwhile, Boris tries again to get his deal through parliament. This time, with the extension issue in the EU's hands, MPs have a straight decision: back the deal, or either a no-deal crash out or an extension might happen, completely outside parliament's control by this stage. Letwin and the rebel alliance have shot their bolt, admittedly having obtained an insurance policy to stop no-deal, but it's an insurance policy which they can't be sure will be honoured. At the same time, Boris can address the concern which Letwin was worried about, by introducing the full legislation to ratify. Crucially, the EU don't need to respond to the extension request until AFTER that legislation is in place (or definitively rejected). That uncertainty makes the deal more likely to pass.
That’s a very good point. The EU can play hardball by saying nothing, and work with Boris to wait until Letwin and co blink.
On a similar basis, Boris probably therefore should have sent the letter last night, and wielded the “we’ll think about it” letter today.
He could hardly do it before the debate but I understand Boris will not send the letter but the UK Ambassador to the EU will and it will be discussed at a meeting of all EU Ambassadors tomorrow (Sunday)
Why are people bothering to try and work out the numbers?
If Letwin passes it doesn't matter if the deal passes as its not a meanginful vote and those "Aye's" can still become "No's" on another day.
The whole thing is a total waste of time - just like waste of space Letwin!
Trying to work out the numbers for votes that will actually matter next week, I suspect, but as you say the ayes cannot be considered certain if Letwin passes.
It would be amusing if the DUP votes are the crucial ones for the Letwin amendment. I can see no reason they would play ball with the goverment on that issue - what do they care if this parliament seeks to use the extra time to tack on a referendum or just remain?
I accept the principle that the British people voted to leave but I reject each deal that the UK government has been able to negotiate and leaving without a deal at all.
You must have been asleep when he said he’d vote for the deal.
If Cons vote to abstain. doesn't that make the risk on this market v assymetrical ( which isn't reflected in the numbers?
Or has that plan been changed?
It's got to be a sell. Limited risk of it going way over, but an HMG abstention if the Letwin amendment passes means you're in the big bucks
Laura K says they can effectively prevent the vote from going ahead by presenting no "yes" tellers. Make of that what you will... (couldn't Lab appoint 2 just to be difficult?)
I see Mrs May is still putting Party before Country...
Some would say she is putting the Country first
I expect a Party loyalist like you to say no less.
She (like Boris) said there should be no border in the Irish Sea and now she is backing exactly that.
No there won't be. The Agreement literally says that Northern Ireland is recognised as part of the United Kingdom's customs territory.
All there will be is some special arrangements controlled by devolution to Stormont. I don't see anyone who backs devolution can oppose that....
The agreement imposed a de facto customs border separating NI from the rest of the UK. That might not matter to you (or indeed to me, FWIW), but as someone who was rather absolutist in their view of May’s deal, you ought to be able to recognise its unacceptability to those for whom it does matter. They are similarly unshakeably convinced of their rectitude.
I was absolutist against May's Deal because there was no democratic controls. Democracy was in perpetuity outsourced to Brussels with no unilateral exit. That was unacceptable absolutely.
Now control will be devolved to Stormont. If the controls continue it will be for only as long as the voters of NI vote for it to continue on an ongoing basis.
I'm going against the crowd and the media pundits on this. I reckon the Letwin amendment makes an October 31st exit with the deal more likely, indeed very likely.
The reason I say this is that I think that people are missing one small but hugely important point about how the EU would react to a request today under the Benn Act for an extension. There is no chance of them giving an instant answer. They have no obligation to respond promptly to an Article 50 request. Even in 'normal' circumstances, it would take them some time to go through the procedures of consultation followed by a formal Council summit (even if the latter is done by conference call).
But these are not normal circumstances at all. They can see the parliamentary position as well as we can. They want to get this deal done, if only in the hope of moving on from the debilitating psychodrama, but also to end the business uncertainty for a while at least. They know that accepting the extension would quite possibly mean that things drag on. Equally they know that refusing the extension might lead to the disaster of a no-deal crash out. So what do they do?
Answer: nothing. They reply to Boris saying they note the request, and will respond once they've made a decision. And then sit on their hands. After all, they have over a week before they have to make a decision. They will also probably repeat that they hope the UK can agree the deal in time for the 31st. Macron and perhaps a few others say they are minded to refuse an extension.
Meanwhile, Boris tries again to get his deal through parliament. This time, with the extension issue in the EU's hands, MPs have a straight decision: back the deal, or either a no-deal crash out or an extension might happen, completely outside parliament's control by this stage. Letwin and the rebel alliance have shot their bolt, admittedly having obtained an insurance policy to stop no-deal, but it's an insurance policy which they can't be sure will be honoured. At the same time, Boris can address the concern which Letwin was worried about, by introducing the full legislation to ratify. Crucially, the EU don't need to respond to the extension request until AFTER that legislation is in place (or definitively rejected). That uncertainty makes the deal more likely to pass.
If, for any reason, Boris loses power over this and the EU puts our backs to the wall, the remaining nuclear button to avoid No Deal is the Revoke option, even if it is only to buy more time.
I suspect the Labour civil war is going to go nuclear next week. Once Brexit is voted through a lot of what was keeping things relatively calm is not going to be there anymore.
In which case they won't want an election and won't table a VONC, but if the government make time for someone elses's proposal for a VONC, will they give the government confidence?
I'm going against the crowd and the media pundits on this. I reckon the Letwin amendment makes an October 31st exit with the deal more likely, indeed very likely.
The reason I say this is that I think that people are missing one small but hugely important point about how the EU would react to a request today under the Benn Act for an extension. There is no chance of them giving an instant answer. They have no obligation to respond promptly to an Article 50 request. Even in 'normal' circumstances, it would take them some time to go through the procedures of consultation followed by a formal Council summit (even if the latter is done by conference call).
But these are not normal circumstances at all. They can see the parliamentary position as well as we can. They want to get this deal done, if only in the hope of moving on from the debilitating psychodrama, but also to end the business uncertainty for a while at least. They know that accepting the extension would quite possibly mean that things drag on. Equally they know that refusing the extension might lead to the disaster of a no-deal crash out. So what do they do?
Answer: nothing. They reply to Boris saying they note the request, and will respond once they've made a decision. And then sit on their hands. After all, they have over a week before they have to make a decision. They will also probably repeat that they hope the UK can agree the deal in time for the 31st. Macron and perhaps a few others say they are minded to refuse an extension.
Meanwhile, Boris tries again to get his deal through parliament. This time, with the extension issue in the EU's hands, MPs have a straight decision: back the deal, or either a no-deal crash out or an extension might happen, completely outside parliament's control by this stage. Letwin and the rebel alliance have shot their bolt, admittedly having obtained an insurance policy to stop no-deal, but it's an insurance policy which they can't be sure will be honoured. At the same time, Boris can address the concern which Letwin was worried about, by introducing the full legislation to ratify. Crucially, the EU don't need to respond to the extension request until AFTER that legislation is in place (or definitively rejected). That uncertainty makes the deal more likely to pass.
Very good points.
The EU now have a far better deal than they did previously, the Irish especially, so they will do everything they can to see it pass.
I'm getting a strong sense that the EU holds quite a lot of the cards.
Comments
Although we knew that already...
PS. So objectively (as it seems to me) I think he's quite poor.
Now giving a Socialist justification for Brexit.
I wonder what they'd do if someone bet £1k sells, Letwin passes, Tories abstain, and number of Ayes ends up at something like 10 (ie 300k profit). Guessing they'd void …. which is why I didn't touch it.
* There are several votes this afternoon.
* Each will affect the other.
* The final outcome will affect the betting markets and the currency.
* But we do not know the outcome nor the effect
* Given the lack of useful information and a low signal-to-noise ratio, I can't glean anything useful from this.
* So I will go out for the afternoon and will return in the evening.
Laters, alligators
Hat's off to Mrs May in my view.
She (like Boris) said there should be no border in the Irish Sea and now she is backing exactly that.
This is why David Trimble can support it.
Theresa May:
"When we voted overwhelmingly to give the choice of EU membership to the British people did we really mean it?
When we voted to trigger Article 50 did we really mean it?
When the two main parties stood on manifestos to deliver #Brexit did we really mean it?"
All there will be is some special arrangements controlled by devolution to Stormont. I don't see anyone who backs devolution can oppose that.
Do you support abolition of Stormont, Holyrood and the Welsh Assembly? Or are you ok with differences agreed by devolved assemblies or Parliaments?
The latest polls showing the public swinging further behind Johnson will I think harden the EU's resolve to try and nail down Johnson's deal now rather than leave things up in the air until after a GE.
That might not matter to you (or indeed to me, FWIW), but as someone who was rather absolutist in their view of May’s deal, you ought to be able to recognise its unacceptability to those for whom it does matter. They are similarly unshakeably convinced of their rectitude.
But how do you know you're being objective?
I have a special button that I press.
Or has that plan been changed?
I have a mathematical hat, and I think that sort of helps in giving me some sort of lodestone as to objectivity.
Alas I have no special button.
Poor him... unlike millions of others
The reason I say this is that I think that people are missing one small but hugely important point about how the EU would react to a request today under the Benn Act for an extension. There is no chance of them giving an instant answer. They have no obligation to respond promptly to an Article 50 request. Even in 'normal' circumstances, it would take them some time to go through the procedures of consultation followed by a formal Council summit (even if the latter is done by conference call).
But these are not normal circumstances at all. They can see the parliamentary position as well as we can. They want to get this deal done, if only in the hope of moving on from the debilitating psychodrama, but also to end the business uncertainty for a while at least. They know that accepting the extension would quite possibly mean that things drag on. Equally they know that refusing the extension might lead to the disaster of a no-deal crash out. So what do they do?
Answer: nothing. They reply to Boris saying they note the request, and will respond once they've made a decision. And then sit on their hands. After all, they have over a week before they have to make a decision. They will also probably repeat that they hope the UK can agree the deal in time for the 31st. Macron and perhaps a few others say they are minded to refuse an extension.
Meanwhile, Boris tries again to get his deal through parliament. This time, with the extension issue in the EU's hands, MPs have a straight decision: back the deal, or either a no-deal crash out or an extension might happen, completely outside parliament's control by this stage. Letwin and the rebel alliance have shot their bolt, admittedly having obtained an insurance policy to stop no-deal, but it's an insurance policy which they can't be sure will be honoured. At the same time, Boris can address the concern which Letwin was worried about, by introducing the full legislation to ratify. Crucially, the EU don't need to respond to the extension request until AFTER that legislation is in place (or definitively rejected). That uncertainty makes the deal more likely to pass.
Good one!
The EU now have a far better deal than they did previously, the Irish especially, so they will do everything they can to see it pass.
Do England play New Zealand next?
On a similar basis, Boris probably therefore should have sent the letter last night, and wielded the “we’ll think about it” letter today.
Now up to billions in double figures?
It would be amusing if the DUP votes are the crucial ones for the Letwin amendment. I can see no reason they would play ball with the goverment on that issue - what do they care if this parliament seeks to use the extra time to tack on a referendum or just remain?
Now control will be devolved to Stormont. If the controls continue it will be for only as long as the voters of NI vote for it to continue on an ongoing basis.