Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ladbrokes make it 6/4 that there’ll be another Brexit referend

13567

Comments

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,779
    Nigelb said:

    If that's really the case, which is... unlikely, then it would probably take a good few hours to make sure it really is the WA, and not something similar with a few strange clauses sneaked in.
    any half decent lawyer or civil servant would issue a marked up copy with the changes and brief the relevant parties in advance.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Chris said:

    Can anyone really be so stupid?

    You have to read it to know what's in it.
    But you don't really. Someone has to read it, politicians are rarely the person who does.

    In fact, the details are not what is important here - it is the politics which are, the broad strokes. For the rest, the politicians trust the civil servants to get the legalities right.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,902
    Nigelb said:

    If that's really the case, which is... unlikely, then it would probably take a good few hours to make sure it really is the WA, and not something similar with a few strange clauses sneaked in.
    Given that the whole point of these negotiations is an alternative to the backstop, I think "unlikely" is the understatement of the millennium.

    Does everyone know there was something called the backstop in Theresa May's Withdrawal Agreement, or am I assuming too much knowledge?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,396

    This sounds suspiciously like Tony Wilson's interpretation of praxis:
    Given that Factory Records went spectacularly bust after sending the Happy Mondays to Barbados to discover crack cocaine, I'm not sure this is a great precedent.

    They had to go to Barbados to discover crack cocaine?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,902
    MTimT said:

    In fact, the details are not what is important here ...

    I give up.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,243

    They had to go to Barbados to discover crack cocaine?
    I think the logic was "Shaun Ryder is hooked on heroin. We need a new album. Let's send him to Barbados. There's no heroin there."

    Whoops.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Give peas a chance, "3 officers to arrest a Broccoli just think how many would be needed for a bag of sprouts"

    https://twitter.com/Journotopia/status/1183430912748466178
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    edited October 2019

    This sounds suspiciously like Tony Wilson's interpretation of praxis:
    Given that Factory Records went spectacularly bust after sending the Happy Mondays to Barbados to discover crack cocaine, I'm not sure this is a great precedent.


    Praxis as I understand it is something completely different - it is deliberate doing in order to create a habit. It is not post hoc justification for any action.

    If you seriously want to engage in this subject matter, reading up on Agile is a good start, then perhaps Managing in the Age of Uncertainty. Where I would agree somewhat with Wilson is that, in complex adaptive systems, you cannot know the whole system because of its complexity and because of the phenomenon of emergent properties, so the only way to learn about the system is doing and observing and iterating that process.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,396

    And how will these voters prove their identity to the council, and why can't this alternative proof be used at the polling station?
    More to the point, how many will bother. Another way to slowly kill democracy.
  • viewcode said:

    4/1 is 20%. It's d/(n+d), so 1/(4+1) = 1/5 = 0.2
    1/4 is 80%. It's d/(n+d), so 4/(1+4) = 4/5 = 0.8
    Don;t tell him! He thinks all evens bets are certainties ;-)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,430

    Empty your bowels ?
    in certain circumstances, that might be the same thing...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,025
    Chris said:

    ?
    They've had "months and months" to read an agreement that hasn't been reached yet, let alone written down?

    You are a follower of the late Dr J. B. Rhine, I presume?
    I have cruised on the Rhine
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393
    148grss said:

    The issue is pardoning Turkeys is fine for Thanksgiving and Xmas. Pomp and circumstance when we're apparently on the constitutional knife edge just seems like fiddling whilst Rome burns.
    They've had years and plenty of debate. An hour of ceremony doesnt affect a damn thing.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,025
    Nigelb said:

    < /irony >
    Nigel, that is all that will be on offer, so it is either all day in the bar or try to polish the turd that has been through 3 failed polishes so far.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,845

    And how will these voters prove their identity to the council, and why can't this alternative proof be used at the polling station?
    The same way they do in NI. Where there is no evidence that this sort of voter ID system has resulted in targeted disenfranchisement.

    People need to look at the reality of how things work before jumping on the outrage bus.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,133

    More to the point, how many will bother. Another way to slowly kill democracy.
    Anything that disenfranchises someone who intended to vote for Corbyn can't be all that bad.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393

    I think Hammond and Grieve have burned their bridges. Having said that they wint vote for Brexit anyway so its not I guess
    Hammond has voted for Brexit. Probably not again though.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,396

    Anything that disenfranchises someone who intended to vote for Corbyn can't be all that bad.
    Slippery slope that one.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,025

    any half decent lawyer or civil servant would issue a marked up copy with the changes and brief the relevant parties in advance.
    Exactly , only changes will be date and Theresa May deleted / Boris Buffoon inserted
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,993

    More to the point, how many will bother. Another way to slowly kill democracy.
    Every voter is on the electoral register with his/her address.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,025
    MTimT said:

    But you don't really. Someone has to read it, politicians are rarely the person who does.

    In fact, the details are not what is important here - it is the politics which are, the broad strokes. For the rest, the politicians trust the civil servants to get the legalities right.
    Most of the politicians would not understand it even if they did read it, most would struggle to tie their shoelaces.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Not really. It's been policy for years and is standard practice in much of the world.
    how does the ERS come up with the claim that it will cost £20m to implement at each election?
  • dyingswandyingswan Posts: 189
    To those seeking a second referendum, could you please tell us the answers to the following.
    1. What will the question be?
    2.What level of turnout will validate the result? 2016- 72pc
    3.What margin of victory will validate the result? 2016-4pc
    4.How long will the enabling legislation take?2016-7 months
    5.How long will it be from passing the Act to the referendum itself? 2016-6 months
    6.Why should the losers consent to the outcome this time?
    7.Wil we all be driven insane in the meantime?
  • Chris said:

    Can anyone really be so stupid?

    You have to read it to know what's in it.
    And yet Ken Clarke was happy to claim he never read any of the EU Treaties that he thought were so good for the UK and argued so strongly for in Parliament.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,396

    Give peas a chance, "3 officers to arrest a Broccoli just think how many would be needed for a bag of sprouts"

    https://twitter.com/Journotopia/status/1183430912748466178

    Sounds a bit like Not the Nine Oclock News's "being arrested for wearing a loud shirt in a built up area"!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,133

    Slippery slope that one.
    Permenant inch-perfect government from Cummings and Boris, what's not to like?
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584

    Not really. It's been policy for years and is standard practice in much of the world.
    They do it all over Europe.

    But in the Uk it’s wacist.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,779
    edited October 2019
    malcolmg said:

    Exactly , only changes will be date and Theresa May deleted / Boris Buffoon inserted
    theyll probably have some changes re NI if reports are correct, but since Parliament is stuffed with lawyers from the DUP at one end Grieve at the other theyll just have to make their mind up.

    And if its really that earth shattering the can always vote to wotk the whole weekend

    Fat chance.
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    Remember kids - guns don’t kill people - rappers do.


    https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1183756554933170178?s=21

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TGOHF2 said:

    They do it all over Europe.

    But in the Uk it’s wacist.

    They have ID cards all over Europe

    I thought you wanted Brexit so we didn't have to do that...

    Oh.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Chris said:

    She just pointed out it would take about 5 hours to read it.
    you're assuming people will read it before they decide
  • Noo said:

    I've been coming to the conclusion that people who are still in favour of Brexit are a strong distillation of people who don't understand why processes are important. It's a strong overlap with the traditional right-wing approach to things: criminals? Hang em! Baddies in foreign lands? Nuke em! Don't like the ECJ? Leave without a deal!
    Complex issues, simple answers that don't work. And if it's shown to not* be working, fuck it, go faster.

    * split infinitive especially for LuckyGuy1883
    I have been coming to the conclusion that Remainers are a bunch of arrogant fuckwits who would sell their own children into sex slavery for the sake of a few extra quid.

    You see its easy to write provocative and unfounded attacks on websites. Easy, but not necessarily wise.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    And how will these voters prove their identity to the council, and why can't this alternative proof be used at the polling station?
    Speed of throughput. Do you want to be held up at the polling booth while the voter in front of you disputes whether a year old photocopy of his landlord's gas bill is evidence of identity?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,779
    Charles said:

    you're assuming people will read it before they decide
    quite

    most of them will just do as their whips tell them
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Voter ID: an interesting debate.

    1. I think we should wait to carefully critique the proposals when they are published, rather than immediately jumping to American talking points on both sides. There’s literally a hundred other systems out there that are not what happens in the USA. See healthcare for another example of this phenomenon.

    2. There have been several court cases of voter fraud, but from memory these were mostly registration and postal voting fraud rather than impersonation at polling stations. Will the proposals address these problems as well?

    3. The implementation needs to be careful in that it doesn’t unduly burden people with paperwork, so for example all existing verified welfare claimants and pensioners should be automatically sent a card.

    4. The concept of voter identification is already in use in other countries, including many which don’t have a Compulsory national ID card Scheme. It would be good to read and observe how things work abroad to design a best practice at home.

    5. Ignore all mentions of the USA with regard to voter ID. Did I mention that one before? Twitter today is full of Americans talking about this.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    I have been coming to the conclusion that Remainers are a bunch of arrogant fuckwits who would sell their own children into sex slavery for the sake of a few extra quid.

    You see its easy to write provocative and unfounded attacks on websites. Easy, but not necessarily wise.
    Wrong again.
    We sell our own children into sex slavery for the sake of a few extra Euros.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,133
    Scott_P said:

    They have ID cards all over Europe

    I thought you wanted Brexit so we didn't have to do that...

    Oh.
    I can feel a vanity by election coming shortly in Haltemprice and Howden.
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    Scott_P said:

    They have ID cards all over Europe

    I thought you wanted Brexit so we didn't have to do that...

    Oh.
    I can see why most of your posts are other people’s tweets - your own though process resembles spaghetti after being in a blender.
  • Noo said:

    Wrong again.
    We sell our own children into sex slavery for the sake of a few extra Euros.
    So you value your kids even less than I thought...
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    So you value your kids even less than I thought...
    Absolutely. I'd have paid to get rid of them. I'm just amazed to get anything at all.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,133
    TGOHF2 said:

    I can see why most of your posts are other people’s tweets - your own though process resembles spaghetti after being in a blender.
    Smooth and easy to digest?
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    edited October 2019



    Smooth and easy to digest?

    Popular with toddlers ?
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,956
    malcolmg said:

    You moron , the Spanish Government has already stated many times that it is none of their business and that they would NOT veto Scotland joining EU if it met the joining rules.
    Are you seriously suggesting there will be no negotiations about access to fishing grounds etc etc. The negotiations would be long and arduous and the EU would have Scotland over a barrel. Only a moron would be incapable of seeing that.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    edited October 2019
    malcolmg said:

    Most of the politicians would not understand it even if they did read it, most would struggle to tie their shoelaces.
    Not sure I would understand everything in my car insurance policy, and sure as hell I don't understand everything in my health insurance policy, yet it does not stop me from buying them.

    PS And no, I have not read either of them.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,226
    Re voter ID, the solution is simple.

    If you have no photo ID, then the staff at the polling station take a photo of you.

    Not many criminals are Keen to have photos of themselves committing crimes. And those who do not have photo id are not disenfranchised.

    Problem solved.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    TGOHF2 said:

    I can see why most of your posts are other people’s tweets - your own though process resembles spaghetti after being in a blender.
    TGOHF2 is on the rampage today. PB's flower beds at strong risk of a pretty vicious nibbling.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    rcs1000 said:

    Re voter ID, the solution is simple.

    If you have no photo ID, then the staff at the polling station take a photo of you.

    Not many criminals are Keen to have photos of themselves committing crimes. And those who do not have photo id are not disenfranchised.

    Problem solved.

    There's a point at which genius and insanity meet, and you have found it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,833
    edited October 2019
    WingsoverScotland turning against the EU this afternoon after it fails to stand up for the jailed Catalan nationalists against the Spanish government.

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/faith-is-always-blind/

    If the SNP then follow suit and back the Catalans against Spain, the EU and Spanish government will then have no complaint when Boris blocks indyref2 and will show no enthusiasm for an Independent Scotland joining the EU either
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,430
    Noo said:

    There's a point at which genius and insanity meet, and you have found it.
    I like it.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    TGOHF2 said:

    Remember kids - guns don’t kill people - rappers do.


    https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1183756554933170178?s=21

    If he wants an answer to that, my mother in law could let him know since she knew Paul Flynn from her childhood days in Cardiff.
  • So you value your kids even less than I thought...
    Not really Richard, I think thanks to Brexit one Euro will soon be worth more than £1 !!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,133
    rcs1000 said:

    Re voter ID, the solution is simple.

    If you have no photo ID, then the staff at the polling station take a photo of you.

    Not many criminals are Keen to have photos of themselves committing crimes. And those who do not have photo id are not disenfranchised.

    Problem solved.

    Nice idea but if the whole point is to disenfranchise those not voting for Boris it doesn't work.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Are you seriously suggesting there will be no negotiations about access to fishing grounds etc etc. The negotiations would be long and arduous and the EU would have Scotland over a barrel. Only a moron would be incapable of seeing that.
    Oh god. Fish. Again.
    Does everyone on here really give a flying fuck about national fishing grounds? If you told me Spanish trawlers can fish off the coast of Aberdeenshire, and Scottish ones can fish in Galician waters, am I meant to care about this? Serious question, I've no idea why everyone gets so animated about this issue.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,263
    rcs1000 said:

    Re voter ID, the solution is simple.

    If you have no photo ID, then the staff at the polling station take a photo of you.

    Not many criminals are Keen to have photos of themselves committing crimes. And those who do not have photo id are not disenfranchised.

    Problem solved.

    Brilliant.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,956
    HYUFD said:

    WingsoverScotland turning against the EU this afternoon after it fails to stand up for the jailed Catalan nationalists against the Spanish government.

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/faith-is-always-blind/

    If the SNP then follow suit and back the Catalans against Spain, the EU and Spanish government will then have no complaint when Boris blocks indyref2 and will show no enthusiasm for an Independent Scotland joining the EU either

    The SNP, by backing the Catalans, have already poisoned their relationship with the Spanish - who will royally screw them if an independent Scotland ever came knocking at the EU's door seeking entry. Fishing rights would only be the start.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,828
    Andy_JS said:
    Scot's voters thinking about the General Election?
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Nigelb said:

    I like it.
    So do I. But it's also bonkers.
  • It's a solution in search of a problem. It will result in far more people being prevented from voting than the cases of voter fraud that currently exist. The only sensible inference is that it is being introduced for political advantage.
    I cannot think of any rational argument against having voters ID properly checked. People use ID for everything else. If they wish to participate then they should provide proper ID. I would also like to see scrapping of postal votes except in very exceptional circumstances. And any more referenda on complex issues should require an IQ certificate (only kidding on the last one...well, maybe!)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,263
    RobD said:

    I was looking for this stat earlier. Do you have a source (apologies if it was cut off your quote)
    "There is publicly available data on coverage of individual data sources. For example, we know there are 38 million driving licences issued in Great Britain, which is 78% of the mid year 2013 estimate of the population of Great Britain over the age of 18. We know from Her Majesty’s Passport Office that 80% of England and Wales residents have a UK passport. What we don’t know from this data is how many people have either a UK passport or a GB driving licence."

    https://identityassurance.blog.gov.uk/2016/01/25/estimating-what-proportion-of-the-public-will-be-able-to-use-gov-uk-verify/
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,025

    Are you seriously suggesting there will be no negotiations about access to fishing grounds etc etc. The negotiations would be long and arduous and the EU would have Scotland over a barrel. Only a moron would be incapable of seeing that.
    England gave away all our fishing grounds previously so that will make beggar all difference, the few that are left have mainly been sold to EU boats in any case. Fishing is a minor part of the discussion apart from a few Tory millionaire boat owners.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,226
    @MTimT

    Re management, rapid iteration is absolutely the right way to run a business. You are more likely to find the right solution by focusing on key metrics and then using a/b testing to move in the right direction by a process of trial and error.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    rcs1000 said:

    Re voter ID, the solution is simple.

    If you have no photo ID, then the staff at the polling station take a photo of you.

    Not many criminals are Keen to have photos of themselves committing crimes. And those who do not have photo id are not disenfranchised.

    Problem solved.

    What about the shocking problem of voter fraud by identical twins and triplets in Fife North East !!
  • Are you seriously suggesting there will be no negotiations about access to fishing grounds etc etc. The negotiations would be long and arduous and the EU would have Scotland over a barrel. Only a moron would be incapable of seeing that.
    You mean Scotland might sell out its fishermen for a better deal from the EU? There's no precedent for any government doing that sort of thing is there?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,696

    Nice idea but if the whole point is to disenfranchise those not voting for Boris it doesn't work.
    Given that Tory support has shifted away from ABC1s, any voter suppression aspect could work against them.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,263

    Nice idea but if the whole point is to disenfranchise those not voting for Boris it doesn't work.
    You could argue that young people in cities are more likely to have photo ID than elderly people in rural areas. So it might hurt the Tories and help Labour.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,956
    Not exactly on the slide but well down on the 50% vote share in 2015, so little danger of another whitewash. Unionist voters now more savvy when it comes to tactical voting as well so you will see differing trends from seat to seat.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    HYUFD said:

    WingsoverScotland turning against the EU this afternoon after it fails to stand up for the jailed Catalan nationalists against the Spanish government.

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/faith-is-always-blind/

    If the SNP then follow suit and back the Catalans against Spain, the EU and Spanish government will then have no complaint when Boris blocks indyref2 and will show no enthusiasm for an Independent Scotland joining the EU either

    The EU and the Spanish government would already be silent about it, if that's what a British PM decides to do.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,396
    Any mortgage mums on PB this afternoon?

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1183745166265458691
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,451
    Mr. Glenn, but does the party or the EU-centric identity matter more?

    And will the latter fade over time or start to become a permanent rival to parties when it comes to determining voter behaviour?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    I cannot think of any rational argument against having voters ID properly checked. People use ID for everything else. If they wish to participate then they should provide proper ID. I would also like to see scrapping of postal votes except in very exceptional circumstances. And any more referenda on complex issues should require an IQ certificate (only kidding on the last one...well, maybe!)
    The rational argument against is simple. If we want to encourage people to vote, we should be making it as easy as possible.

    There is no evidence of any substantial voter fraud. Introducing new methods of voter identification will reduce the numbers of voters. This will affect some groups disproportionately.

    If there was evidence of substantial voter fraud, the answer would be different. But there isn't.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,133

    Given that Tory support has shifted away from ABC1s, any voter suppression aspect could work against them.
    It might have had a major bearing on EURef1!
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,845

    I cannot think of any rational argument against having voters ID properly checked. People use ID for everything else. If they wish to participate then they should provide proper ID. I would also like to see scrapping of postal votes except in very exceptional circumstances. And any more referenda on complex issues should require an IQ certificate (only kidding on the last one...well, maybe!)
    Given that it is currently harder to get a bus pass or library card than it is to vote, then the system needs a bit of work. Adopting what is, from all we can tell, essentially the one that has been operating successfully in NI for decades is a perfectly legitimate way to operate a voter registration system.

    As long as the legislation also does all it can to eliminate postal vote fraud, we will have a better system at the end of the process than we do now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,833

    The SNP, by backing the Catalans, have already poisoned their relationship with the Spanish - who will royally screw them if an independent Scotland ever came knocking at the EU's door seeking entry. Fishing rights would only be the start.
    Yes, in that sense Boris can happily play Spain off against the SNP and ignore Sturgeon
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,396
    Re: mortgage mums.

    I knew Kinnock had lost in '92 on GE day, when I was told by two mate's wives separately that they had voted Tory. Both absolute swing voters. Both worried about mortgage and tax.

    Which struck me as odd, since Major had managed to get interest rates to something like 15% at one point. But there you go.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    The rational argument against is simple. If we want to encourage people to vote, we should be making it as easy as possible.

    There is no evidence of any substantial voter fraud. Introducing new methods of voter identification will reduce the numbers of voters. This will affect some groups disproportionately.

    If there was evidence of substantial voter fraud, the answer would be different. But there isn't.
    Thank goodness for a sensible comment (and others of its ilk).
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,655
    GIN1138 said:

    LOL! Basically the doors are going to be locked and they're not being let out until something is agreed! :D
    Careful, the Guardian and its readers won't like any talk of doors being locked.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    The NI dual identity case has been decided - rather strange.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/oct/14/uk-court-rules-against-derry-woman-in-irish-identity-case

    "People born in Northern Ireland are legally British, unless they register a change in citizenship, even if they identify as Irish under rights granted in the Good Friday agreement, a UK court has ruled."
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    rcs1000 said:

    Re voter ID, the solution is simple.

    If you have no photo ID, then the staff at the polling station take a photo of you.

    Not many criminals are Keen to have photos of themselves committing crimes. And those who do not have photo id are not disenfranchised.

    Problem solved.

    In some countries they dip fingers in ink to stop you voting twice. Certainly more than 10 times is unlikely outside of Norfolk.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    HYUFD said:

    Yes, in that sense Boris can happily play Spain off against the SNP and ignore Sturgeon
    But the question is, why? Why would he want to do that? The Scottish Parliament clearly voted for a referendum. Why wouldn't we grant one?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,622
    MTimT said:

    Cyclefree, you know I respect you. However, pretty much everyone is in entrenched positions and it will not take much more than a nano second for everyone to decide which side of the fence they sit on.

    The more I research the issue of dealing with risk in complex adaptive systems, them more I appreciate the damage of analysis paralysis. Surely, we've been past that point in the UK where inaction and uncertainty is what is causing the bulk of the damage for at least a year, perhaps more like two.

    There is a growing body of management science and systems science saying that the best way forward in complex adaptive systems is simply to act, and then react to what the action results in, rather than seek to analyze and plan in detail. We may well be riven as to what action should be taken, but we may also be at a point where any action is better than continued paralysis.
    Well I respect you too. But with the greatest respect that sounds like the stupidest way possible to decide something complex with far-reaching implications for us all.

    The alternative is not paralysis. It is to take time to read and understand properly the implications of whatever new deal is arrived to and then explain it to the voters and then take a decision and explain that to the voters.

    It is precisely because the country is divided that this effort, however hard and time-consuming it may be, is essential.

    That is what politics is - an attempt to find the ground on which a decision can be made. It is precisely the opposite of what May’s government did and doubling down on what she did - trying to bully something through on the basis of exhaustion and exasperation is catastrophically stupid. All that means is that at the first whiff of a problem any consent for it will vanish.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,025
    Unionist Fruitcakes are out in force today, must be sent delusion pills by CCHQ. This place is turning into a cesspit for whining jessie boy unionists
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    HYUFD said:

    Yes, in that sense Boris can happily play Spain off against the SNP and ignore Sturgeon
    Gibraltar?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,025
    HYUFD said:

    Yes, in that sense Boris can happily play Spain off against the SNP and ignore Sturgeon
    Dear God, we can only hope these loons don't breed with each other
  • Carnyx said:

    The NI dual identity case has been decided - rather strange.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/oct/14/uk-court-rules-against-derry-woman-in-irish-identity-case

    "People born in Northern Ireland are legally British, unless they register a change in citizenship, even if they identify as Irish under rights granted in the Good Friday agreement, a UK court has ruled."

    UK OK

    Good Friday Agreement pretty much defunked now. Time for the shinners to pick up their rifles again and we can get back to business as usual.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    malcolmg said:

    Dear God, we can only hope these loons don't breed with each other
    Afternoon, Malky. What I don't understand is the notion that the Tories post-Brexit and the Spanish Gmt will be on tdhe same side, like Mr Cameron and Sr Rajoy were. Has anything been agreed with/about Gibraltar, for instance? Or fishing?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    UK OK

    Good Friday Agreement pretty much defunked now. Time for the shinners to pick up their rifles again and we can get back to business as usual.
    I hope you are being ironic.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,025
    Noo said:

    But the question is, why? Why would he want to do that? The Scottish Parliament clearly voted for a referendum. Why wouldn't we grant one?
    You are wasting your time asking that Tory fruitcake an intelligent question
  • Carnyx said:

    I hope you are being ironic.
    I've had a few pints - so, no.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    malcolmg said:

    You are wasting your time asking that Tory fruitcake an intelligent question
    You ain't wrong
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,133

    UK OK

    Good Friday Agreement pretty much defunked now. Time for the shinners to pick up their rifles again and we can get back to business as usual.
    Perhaps your ridiculous comments might have more credibility if your spelling didn't suggest you are not too smart.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,627
    6/4 but isn't ref 2 essentially a proxy for Lab minority govt?
    Which is available at longer odds I think.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,025
    Carnyx said:

    Afternoon, Malky. What I don't understand is the notion that the Tories post-Brexit and the Spanish Gmt will be on tdhe same side, like Mr Cameron and Sr Rajoy were. Has anything been agreed with/about Gibraltar, for instance? Or fishing?
    Afternoon Carnyx, I just laugh nowadays, the unionist fruitcakes on here are doolally and have no grasp of reality.
  • Noo said:

    But the question is, why? Why would he want to do that? The Scottish Parliament clearly voted for a referendum. Why wouldn't we grant one?
    It's a mystery, the likes of HYUFD are insistent that indy would lose again and surely such a second loss (à la Quebec) would kill the issue stone dead.
This discussion has been closed.