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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ladbrokes make it 6/4 that there’ll be another Brexit referend
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ladbrokes make it 6/4 that there’ll be another Brexit referendum before the end of next year
Given how difficult Johnson has had in winning votes in the House of Commons this morning’s Queen’s Speech had a touch a fantasy about it. His Government is in a minority and thanks to the Fixed-Term Parliament Act he is unable to call a general election to ameliorate the situation.
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https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2019/10/14/hillary-clinton-says-she-fears-for-britain-under-boris-johnson/
If MPs don't like him having a QS, they should have given him the GE he wanted.
The McDonnell camp is telling radio the exact opposite.
Next step let's complaining about the US president pardoning Turkeys.
Nowhere near long enough surely?
Still, it's a side-show really.
(I suspect there will be a deal now, though it won’t be anything like what the ERG and the DUP hope for).
Someone mentioned on here that the EU might say “here’s the deal, no more extensions except to implement it.” I think that could well happen. It will force the Commons into deal or revoke (we all know it will not back no deal).
Ladbrokes: Man Utd home win at Old Trafford this weekend: 18/5
Does this mean Ladbrokes are rating a second referendum as roughly three times as likely as Manchester United to win at home?
The time for talking is over. None of them have anything new to say.
"That's not really an issue. Hall bookings are cancelled all the time - I have had a number of rehearsals cancelled/moved because of bookings for elections. A way is always found - venues will always put the needs of an election ahead of regular hall users."
Given in the pre-FTPA era, elections were called at much shorter notice than we get now, this was never an issue then and won't be an issue now.
They haven't yet spent a single day talking about what the government is proposing, because nobody knows WTF the government is proposing. It's ridiculous to say that the government needs three and a half years to work out an acceptable proposal, but then they can't even spare a few weeks for parliament to ask them what it'll mean in practice.
Counts can take place in a wide range of spaces. Councils will find large enough venues. If really isn't a big job
Given the polls show a small but consistent Remain majority, why is this?
(BTW 4/1 corresponds to a 20% chance).
Maybe there can be some kind of deal in principle, but the indications don't look promising.
Surely there is going to be an extension now.
1/4 is 80%. It's d/(n+d), so 4/(1+4) = 4/5 = 0.8
https://twitter.com/UncleDuke1969/status/1056173795034185728
https://twitter.com/josepgoded/status/1183647496226164736
Interesting odds.
It should be even shorter. But that does require MPs to actually act coherently. So far they've been much better at opposing everything.
Sadly, nothing will come of it of course, until possibly a new government pardons them in future. The EU should act but won't, long sentences like this for sedition are not compatible with basic human rights given that we're not talking about people trying to overthrow the government by physical force.
https://twitter.com/murdo_fraser/status/1183712603803136000?s=20.
Some of the replies from the Unionist fraternity are a joy to behold.
The line the SNP take on Scotland being "automatically" an EU state isn't sound. Madrid could potentially push back on it, pour encourager les Catalans.
Independent Scotland might well end up an independent EU state but it's not guaranteed. It also gives London a tremendous amount of power, no Section 30 => UDI = No EU membership for Scotland for sure.
Vote for it and you are reinstated and the official conservative candidate at the GE
maybe a bit of pressure is what they need.
Does that make me an honorary Nit?
Hard thinking for Hammond and Grieve but Letwin is standing down anyway
The sentences are extraordinary. I would comment that I have voted SNP when I lived in Scotland, but did not and do not support independence
Best I can see, after this mess is sorted, is that (absent a GE) the Cons might be able to convince most to return and crawl back to 303 seats or so. A mere 19 short of a majority. WINNER!
If you think TMay's proposed deal was a good one and MPs should have supported it then fair enough, but don't blame them for what Theresa May and Boris Johnson pissed away 3+ years on.
It has been the case since the Benn Act but 41% supporting no deal in today's YouGov and more blaming the EU than UK if talks fail he may well be in a better political place than many think
There's a painful echo here of the moronic way the British punished the rebels of the 1916 Easter Rising. If they'd been treated reasonably, and cleverly, the fires of Irish nationalism might have gone out. Instead the British executed almost all of them, even the ones who were so badly wounded they had to be tied to a chair, so as to be shot.
I get the feeling Madrid would like to shoot the Calatan rebels, if only it was permitted. This will not end well.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1183682529502601216/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^embeddedtimeline|twterm^profile:britainelects&ref_url=http://britainelects.com/
Has anyone here tracked down the full tables? Any ideas as to why the full VI has not been published? TBH I was expecting that we would see the results released as a Sunday Times poll yesterday.
You don’t even know what the fucking deal is let alone its implications. It would probably take 5 hours to read let alone understand the legal text and any Bill implementing it. But hey let’s vote on it on the basis of total ignorance and screw those who are affected by it.
Jesus wept.