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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the day of Johnson’s Brexit plan the latest polling on how

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  • isamisam Posts: 41,221

    On hearing one engine on a plane has failed, resulting in a 1 hour delay to the flight, a Derby County fan turns to his neighbour and says “if the other one goes we’ll be up here all night...."

    Better?
    Change it to ‘leave voter’ and the BBC will give you a 6 show series
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,282

    With this shambles of a proposal from Boris getting laughed out in Brussels, and public opinion now swinging strongly against Brexit, maybe we should consider the possibility that Brexit will never happen?

    What's taken you so long? :wink:
  • Yeah, Boris’s deal is a complete dud, but Dom realised he had to submit some nonsense to facilitate the ensuing blame game. Oh well.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,188
    edited October 2019
    AndyJS said:

    ...the BBC's iconic 1992 election night coverage, regarded by many psephological anoraks as one of the best ever election shows...

    February 1974: hold my beer.

    1) They still had bookies in the program then
    2) They had to interrupt the program because of bombs detonated in Belfast
    3) The favorite did not win
    4) No David Bloody Dimbleby

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nRBbmeoghNI

  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    Smuggling across the Irish border ? Glad there is none of that now.


    🤷‍♂️
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705
    TGOHF2 said:

    I’ve seen less twat tweets mocking Dom’s war games though - may just be coincidence..
    I've seen exactly the same number (excluding the 2,000,150 retweets on here today).

    A big fat zero. Not having a twitter account has many advantages.
  • TGOHF2 said:
    Indeed.

    Conservatives 288
    DUP 10
    Lib Dem 1
    Former Conservatives 10-15
    Labour Leavers and Deal supporters (Kinnock etc) 10-20

    Total: 319 - 334

    Should be enough.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,133
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    TGOHF2 said:

    I’ve seen less twat tweets mocking Dom’s war games though - may just be coincidence..
    Why do you use sectarian iconography in your avatar?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1179483414153576453?s=19

    A view from an Irish journalist reporting on discussions
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705
    TGOHF2 said:
    That will help with the minimum pricing.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    TGOHF2 said:

    Smuggling across the Irish border ? Glad there is none of that now.


    🤷‍♂️

    What’s the thinking behind your using sectarian iconography in your avatar?
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584

    What’s the thinking behind your using sectarian iconography in your avatar?
    What a ridiculous comment.
  • The Boris admirers need to await another day. It’s still possible he could thwart Benn and leave 31 October with No Deal. Borisism isn’t dead yet!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Indeed.

    Conservatives 288
    DUP 10
    Lib Dem 1
    Former Conservatives 10-15
    Labour Leavers and Deal supporters (Kinnock etc) 10-20

    Total: 319 - 334

    Should be enough.
    There’s no doubt a majority in the Commons for the sun shining every day next summer too.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,133
    philiph said:

    That will help with the minimum pricing.
    I think it is BoZos mate across the pond with the tariffs. No effect on prices here, at least until the EU retaliated.

    What the world needs now is a tariff war...
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705
    Foxy said:

    I think it is BoZos mate across the pond with the tariffs. No effect on prices here, at least until the EU retaliated.

    What the world needs now is a tariff war...
    You are right.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    isam said:

    Change it to ‘leave voter’ and the BBC will give you a 6 show series
    The Mark Report!
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    egg said:
    Checking your privilege as you climax
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705
    Foxy said:

    I think it is BoZos mate across the pond with the tariffs. No effect on prices here, at least until the EU retaliated.

    What the world needs now is a tariff war...
    Good for cutting greenhouse gases.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,461
    egg said:
    Hard to know which of the two looks the least impressed with the notion!
  • Why do you use sectarian iconography in your avatar?
    He doesn't. William of Orange is a symbol of the triumph of Parliamentary sovereignty. Stop being a twat. .
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,188
    philiph said:

    Good for cutting greenhouse gases.
    If you like tariffs, perhaps you would like to pay mine. Because I'd rather not pay them.
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    Foxy said:

    I think it is BoZos mate across the pond with the tariffs. No effect on prices here, at least until the EU retaliated.

    What the world needs now is a tariff war...
    https://twitter.com/the_chrisshaw/status/1179420839650955266?s=21
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584

    He doesn't. William of Orange is a symbol of the triumph of Parliamentary sovereignty. Stop being a twat. .
    I blame the schools.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    Hard to know which of the two looks the least impressed with the notion!
    Boris as always looks like a drowned version of Donald Trump.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,133
    TGOHF2 said:

    https://twitter.com/the_chrisshaw/status/1179420839650955266?s=21
    Though in a few months the EU will be bringing in punitive tariffs because of illegal subsidies to Boeing...

    https://www.ft.com/content/9a2c5af6-e51c-11e9-9743-db5a370481bc
  • TGOHF2 said:
    Have the Scots already made the jump? Didn't even notice.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    He doesn't. William of Orange is a symbol of the triumph of Parliamentary sovereignty. Stop being a twat. .
    Ah. A Dick abusing a twat.

    Welcome Richard it’s pun night. This will cheer you up.

    Was chatting to a lovely Blonde the other day, Ruth she said her name was.

    When she asked my name I said ‘Egg, but everyone calls me Dick for short’

    ‘How do you get Dick from Egg’ she asked

    I replied ‘just Ask nicely!’

    Okay, seriously, exploring what you said there about Parliament winning, a counterfactual of what happens next if Orange lost?
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    philiph said:
    Meanwhile on c4 Mogg elaborates on the super secret by saying we are going to challenge it in the courts.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,204
    Con Hold Guildford. Possible Lib Dem target this time round ?
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    News update from the Egg desk.

    Bernie Sanders is still alive.

    “Mr Sanders had earlier announced his campaign had raised over $25m (£20m).”

    What happens to all the money raised when people bow out these campaigns?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,746
    TGOHF2 said:
    It inhibits us from indulging your urge to grovel to Trump?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,399
    Noo said:
    She looks a bit like him. How many daughters has he got?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    He doesn't. William of Orange is a symbol of the triumph of Parliamentary sovereignty. Stop being a twat. .
    Richard, if you think this poster is using this image to indicate “a triumph of parliamentary sovereignty” you are far more credulous than I ever took you for.
  • egg said:

    Ah. A Dick abusing a twat.

    Welcome Richard it’s pun night. This will cheer you up.

    Was chatting to a lovely Blonde the other day, Ruth she said her name was.

    When she asked my name I said ‘Egg, but everyone calls me Dick for short’

    ‘How do you get Dick from Egg’ she asked

    I replied ‘just Ask nicely!’

    Okay, seriously, exploring what you said there about Parliament winning, a counterfactual of what happens next if Orange lost?
    It wasn't a case of Orange losing. He was there at the invitation of Parliament as a result of James having suspended Parliament. James basically wanted to reverse the result of the ECW and the Restoration settlement. The most likely result of William losing would have been a slide into another civil war. No Bill of Rights and eventually the sort of revolution we saw in France.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,399
    edited October 2019
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    I have no idea whether the DUP had a hand in the actual formulation of this plan but it looks like something Nigel Dodds would have come up with.

    If he did have a role in it, it certainly gives credence to the claim that all politics is local.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    TGOHF2 said:

    I blame the schools.
    That avatar is a deliberate piece of sectarian iconography, as you know full well. If you spent less time exhibiting bigoted anti-Irish, anti-catholic views, I’d be more inclined to accept you were just stupid.

    But, you know what you are doing.

    https://www.google.com/search?q=king+billy+mural&client=safari&prmd=isnv&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwikjdCHy_7kAhXHSxUIHc60AaUQ_AUoAXoECA4QAQ&biw=414&bih=613&dpr=3
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,272
    edited October 2019
    TGOHF2 said:

    https://twitter.com/the_chrisshaw/status/1179420839650955266?s=21
    The WTO has already decided that the US has also illegally subsidised Boeing, and in January will announce how much the EU can retaliate.

    The EU, the US, the Canadians, the Russians, the South Koreans, the Chinese, the Japanese and oh yes, the British government, all subsidise aircraft manufacture in one way or another.

    For a long time, there was this general view that - as everyone was doing it - it was best ignored. But President Trump has changed that. On the one hand, he believes it is the US's duty to have procurement rules designed to funnel cash to Boeing. But if Canada or the EU does the same, then that's illegal subsidies.

    During the financial crisis, there was a huge amount of pressure put on state owned banks (in both the US and the EU) to only lend for new planes if they were "local". It was an insane, ridiculous subsidy that distorted the market. But they both did it.

    And don't think we're immune. That lovely factory making wings in Wales. That had a bunch of regional development susbidies attached to it.

    So, we're going to see a trade war. And we're all going to lose.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    That avatar is a deliberate piece of sectarian iconography, as you know full well. If you spent less time exhibiting bigoted anti-Irish, anti-catholic views, I’d be more inclined to accept you were just stupid.

    But, you know what you are doing.

    https://www.google.com/search?q=king+billy+mural&client=safari&prmd=isnv&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwikjdCHy_7kAhXHSxUIHc60AaUQ_AUoAXoECA4QAQ&biw=414&bih=613&dpr=3
    The leader of the Glorious Revolution, celebrated as the birth of parliamentary sovereignty, is now off limits? That is like callling the Union Jack a racist avatar because it was used by the BNP.
  • That avatar is a deliberate piece of sectarian iconography, as you know full well. If you spent less time exhibiting bigoted anti-Irish, anti-catholic views, I’d be more inclined to accept you were just stupid.

    But, you know what you are doing.

    https://www.google.com/search?q=king+billy+mural&client=safari&prmd=isnv&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwikjdCHy_7kAhXHSxUIHc60AaUQ_AUoAXoECA4QAQ&biw=414&bih=613&dpr=3
    You really do come over as a complete lunatic.
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584

    That avatar is a deliberate piece of sectarian iconography, as you know full well. If you spent less time exhibiting bigoted anti-Irish, anti-catholic views, I’d be more inclined to accept you were just stupid.

    But, you know what you are doing.

    https://www.google.com/search?q=king+billy+mural&client=safari&prmd=isnv&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwikjdCHy_7kAhXHSxUIHc60AaUQ_AUoAXoECA4QAQ&biw=414&bih=613&dpr=3
    Calm down dear.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    It appears being a Protestant is now a problem.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,746
    TGOHF2 said:

    Calm down dear.
    I think you, @Richard_Tyndall, and @Gabs2 are all just hoping for a continental intervention to back our parliament against the dark forces ranged against it.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,188
    Y0kel said:

    It appears being a Protestant is now a problem.

    And I assume your choice of avatar is also coincidental?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,399

    Indeed.

    Conservatives 288
    DUP 10
    Lib Dem 1
    Former Conservatives 10-15
    Labour Leavers and Deal supporters (Kinnock etc) 10-20

    Total: 319 - 334

    Should be enough.
    Pity you're negotiating with the EU not parliament.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    Y0kel said:

    It appears being a Protestant is now a problem.

    Really? Why?
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    viewcode said:

    And I assume your choice of avatar is also coincidental?
    That's my nation's flag, you know like the Welsh have a flag and the Scots have a flag. Even the English have one but apparently its bad form to show it for some reason.

    I believe my nation's right to exist as an entity and choose what state it wishes to attach itself to is actually explicit in something called the Good Friday Agreement which an awful of people seem to be going on about at the moment.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,272

    I think you, @Richard_Tyndall, and @Gabs2 are all just hoping for a continental intervention to back our parliament against the dark forces ranged against it.
    Very good.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,895
    YouGov finds 58% of voters support restoring the death penalty for murder as part of a terrorist act, 57% for multiple murders and 53% for murder of a child.

    Though only 34% support restoring the death penalty in all cases of murder

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/legal/articles-reports/2019/10/01/brits-want-harsher-punishments-criminals
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    You really do come over as a complete lunatic.
    It’s a shame you think that Richard as I respect you as a poster. You don’t denote any sectarian dog whistling on here from certain posters? None at all?
  • Indeed.

    Conservatives 288
    DUP 10
    Lib Dem 1
    Former Conservatives 10-15
    Labour Leavers and Deal supporters (Kinnock etc) 10-20

    Total: 319 - 334

    Should be enough.

    There is no deal Johnson can put in front of the Commons that the ERG will vote for. Therein lies the problem.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,399

    Really? Why?
    They've run out of bowler hats
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    Y0kel said:

    That's my nation's flag, you know like the Welsh have a flag and the Scots have a flag. Even the English have one but apparently its bad form to show it for some reason.

    I believe my nation's right to exist as an entity and choose what state it wishes to attach itself to is actually explicit in something called the Good Friday Agreement which an awful of people seem to be going on about at the moment.
    Actually, the Ulster flag has no official status. The correct flag is the Union Flag aka The Union Jack
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307

    Really? Why?
    Well its King William isnt it, anything to do with him is automatically sectarian which means Protestants who in anyway see any association between them and this historical figure are also sectarian.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,399
    edited October 2019
    TGOHF2 said:
    The EU are quaking in their boots....More tales from the Telegraph tomorrow night.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307

    Actually, the Ulster flag has no official status. The correct flag is the Union Flag aka The Union Jack
    There you fail to understand that flags are associated to by people. Those who claim it as theirs and their nation's flag are no less legitimate than those who claim another flag which has official status or not.

    I associate with it, plenty of others do. So its ours and we use it and no official status makes one ounce of difference.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Y0kel said:

    Well its King William isnt it, anything to do with him is automatically sectarian which means Protestants who in anyway see any association between them and this historical figure are also sectarian.
    Pictures of ‘King Billy’ are classic sectarian iconography, as you know full well. Are you actually denying this?

    https://www.google.com/search?q=king+billy+mural&client=safari&prmd=isnv&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwikjdCHy_7kAhXHSxUIHc60AaUQ_AUoAXoECA4QAQ&biw=414&bih=613&dpr=3
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    Y0kel said:

    Well its King William isnt it, anything to do with him is automatically sectarian which means Protestants who in anyway see any association between them and this historical figure are also sectarian.
    Well, it probably does nnot help when the Orange Lodges go charging through Short Strand with large banners of King Billy riding a white horse across the Boyne and waving a sword in the air.

    That sort of thing makes an impression....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,746
    Y0kel said:

    There you fail to understand that flags are associated to by people. Those who claim it as theirs and their nation's flag are no less legitimate than those who claim another flag which has official status or not.

    I associate with it, plenty of others do. So its ours and we use it and no official status makes one ounce of difference.
    Do you identify as Northern Irish first, British second?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Well, it probably does nnot help when the Orange Lodges go charging through Short Strand with large banners of King Billy riding a white horse across the Boyne and waving a sword in the air.

    That sort of thing makes an impression....
    Nothing to see here...
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192

    Do you identify as Northern Irish first, British second?
    Who? Me or Yokel?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Y0kel said:

    That's my nation's flag, you know like the Welsh have a flag and the Scots have a flag. Even the English have one but apparently its bad form to show it for some reason.

    I believe my nation's right to exist as an entity and choose what state it wishes to attach itself to is actually explicit in something called the Good Friday Agreement which an awful of people seem to be going on about at the moment.
    Actually it's not. It was only ever the flag of the *government* of Northern Ireland and was never officially adopted as the flag of Northern Ireland itself.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,746

    Who? Me or Yokel?
    Yokel. I'm just curious as he described Northern Ireland as a nation.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307

    Nothing to see here...
    As do sectarian actions the other way. It works both sides and the only way things will work is accept that people have their icons and thats all there is to it.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Y0kel said:

    As do sectarian actions the other way. It works both sides and the only way things will work is accept that people have their icons and thats all there is to it.
    Progress. At least you accept it is a sectarian icon.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    edited October 2019

    Do you identify as Northern Irish first, British second?
    My statehood is British my nationality is Northern Irish. Which comes first depends on the situation. Its one of the glorious delights that I can claim, according to the census, to be a bit of anything I want.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192

    Yokel. I'm just curious as he described Northern Ireland as a nation.
    Well, it is legally a country, although many who live there call it "The Province"
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    I’m reminded of a previous does of the vapours - from Lady Nugee


    https://twitter.com/stigabell/status/684528231643492353?s=21
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,746
    Y0kel said:

    My statehood is British my nationality is Northern Irish. Which comes first depends on the situation. Its one the glorious delights that I can claim, according to the census, to a bit of anything I want.
    In a united Ireland, would you still say your nationality was Northern Irish, or something else?
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307

    Progress. At least you accept it is a sectarian icon.
    According to some people, not others. Its called tolerance, not creating hierarchies or one sided victimhood or offense. History exists, leave at the door or keep rehashing it and trawling it up as a political weapon. Trawling it up does fuck all in this place that I live, just resentment on resentment.
  • The EU will never reject Johnson’s proposal outright and will say let’s keep talking, so at some point in the Blame Game game Johnson will have to walk away to No Deal. That will be an interesting moment.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    HYUFD said:
    wE wiLL NevEr ReoPen ThE WitHdrAWal AgReEmenT
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,906

    The EU will never reject Johnson’s proposal outright and will say let’s keep talking, so at some point in the Blame Game game Johnson will have to walk away to No Deal. That will be an interesting moment.

    Particularly if he walks away while writing a letter asking for an extension.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    edited October 2019

    @williamglenn

    Northern Irish, but I'd not live in the Republic of Ireland anyway, my entire, cultural, political, and whatever you care to mention, immersion as a person is in a Northern Irish and British context. Thats my association by both choice and wish.

    There is something that the simplification types elsewhere in the UK and in the Republic of Ireland have missed about this place and its the idea of Northern Irishness. Its a thing.

    2011 census

    • 40% of usual residents had a British only national identity
    • 25% had Irish only national identity
    • 21% had Northern Irish only national identity

    • 48% of people included British as a national identity
    • 29% included Northern Irish as a national identity
    • 28 % included Irish as a national identity
  • Chris said:

    Particularly if he walks away while writing a letter asking for an extension.

    Walking away when the EU is saying a deal is not dead would be a thing. Presumably Cummings has wargamed it.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    You know that using an 'Irishman' as a signifier for stupidity is quite offensive @Charles?
    What should i use? Most countries use a neighbouring province or country (and I’m Irish myself)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,895

    The EU will never reject Johnson’s proposal outright and will say let’s keep talking, so at some point in the Blame Game game Johnson will have to walk away to No Deal. That will be an interesting moment.

    Except he can't without a Tory majority, if Boris gets that Tory majority then a Deal can be done if the EU dither for now
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TGOHF2 said:

    And they have blown it - got too greedy.
    Yes. They could have had a fabulous outcome and there’s a decent chance they will end up with No Deal.

    I was in Dublin today - a lot of people are pissed at Varadkar but not saying so publicly. They are also deeply worried about access to the U.K. land bridge being cut off.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,673
    Y0kel said:


    @williamglenn

    Northern Irish, but I'd not live in the Republic of Ireland anyway, my entire, cultural, political, and whatever you care to mention, immersion as a person is in a Northern Irish and British context. Thats my association by both choice and wish.

    There is something that the simplification types elsewhere in the UK and in the Republic of Ireland have missed about this place and its the idea of Northern Irishness. Its a thing.

    2011 census

    • 40% of usual residents had a British only national identity
    • 25% had Irish only national identity
    • 21% had Northern Irish only national identity

    • 48% of people included British as a national identity
    • 29% included Northern Irish as a national identity
    • 28 % included Irish as a national identity

    Quite mixed, in fact. I'm not sure what conclusions you draw from these figures? You'd get the same sort of variation in England (are you English, British, a Yorkshireman, a European, a citizen of nowhere, whatever).
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,746
    edited October 2019
    Y0kel said:


    @williamglenn

    Northern Irish, but I'd not live in the Republic of Ireland anyway, my entire, cultural, political, and whatever you care to mention, immersion as a person is in a Northern Irish and British context. Thats my association by both choice and wish.

    There is something that the simplification types elsewhere in the UK and in the Republic of Ireland have missed about this place and its the idea of Northern Irishness. Its a thing.

    2011 census

    • 40% of usual residents had a British only national identity
    • 25% had Irish only national identity
    • 21% had Northern Irish only national identity

    • 48% of people included British as a national identity
    • 29% included Northern Irish as a national identity
    • 28 % included Irish as a national identity

    What if there were no longer a British state and England, Scotland and Wales were independent. How do you think British/unionist identity would find expression?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Charles said:

    Yes. They could have had a fabulous outcome and there’s a decent chance they will end up with No Deal.

    I was in Dublin today - a lot of people are pissed at Varadkar but not saying so publicly. They are also deeply worried about access to the U.K. land bridge being cut off.
    Irish business people who spoke to me were certainly not happy with the EU
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,906
    Surely it won't be too long before the president of the USA is placed in psychiatric care?
This discussion has been closed.