You're translating Varadkar wrong everyone. He's saying F off
Stock up on canned goods.
That depends entirely on whether the EU consider the proposals reasonable and if they therefore consider Ireland is being unreasonable. I make no judgement on that but I do know that if the EU decide this should be the deal then Ireland are very unlikely to be able to stop it since the decision woukd be by QMV.
You're translating Varadkar wrong everyone. He's saying F off
Stock up on canned goods.
That depends entirely on whether the EU consider the proposals reasonable and if they therefore consider Ireland is being unreasonable. I make no judgement on that but I do know that if the EU decide this should be the deal then Ireland are very unlikely to be able to stop it since the decision woukd be by QMV.
Or Ireland just ask the EU to drop the nonsense with Apple as quid pro quo.
I believe that post-Prorogation the first Parliamentary vote will be on the Queens Speech. If defeated , a VNOC will take place the next day without the Deal having been presented.
Isn't there a Queens Spech "debate" that lasts a few days before they vote on it?
You're translating Varadkar wrong everyone. He's saying F off
Stock up on canned goods.
That depends entirely on whether the EU consider the proposals reasonable and if they therefore consider Ireland is being unreasonable. I make no judgement on that but I do know that if the EU decide this should be the deal then Ireland are very unlikely to be able to stop it since the decision woukd be by QMV.
Not sure it works like that - all 27 have to sign off on it don't they?
I believe that post-Prorogation the first Parliamentary vote will be on the Queens Speech. If defeated , a VNOC will take place the next day without the Deal having been presented.
Isn't there a Queens Spech "debate" that lasts a few days before thye vote on it?
You're translating Varadkar wrong everyone. He's saying F off
Stock up on canned goods.
That depends entirely on whether the EU consider the proposals reasonable and if they therefore consider Ireland is being unreasonable. I make no judgement on that but I do know that if the EU decide this should be the deal then Ireland are very unlikely to be able to stop it since the decision woukd be by QMV.
The UK's proposal (while unfinished) is broadly a good one. It explicitly hands sovereignty to the people of Northern Ireland to choose whether or not to remain in something akin to the backstop.
Now, there is much that is left undecided by this exit. But that's the nature of negotiating the final arrangements in the transition period.
All-in-all, it's a small but positive improvement on Mrs May's deal and we, the EU and the RoI should take it.
"The Queen’s Speech is the centrepiece of the State Opening of Parliament: the official start of the new session. It normally takes place in May, but this can vary, particularly in a year when a general election is held.
The speech itself is written by the Government and is delivered by the Queen in the Chamber of the House of Lords. Its main function is to announce the Government’s priorities and to list the bills that they plan to introduce in the coming session.
MPs are summoned to the Lords Chamber by Black Rod (a Lords official) to watch the Queen deliver her speech.
When the ceremony is complete, MPs return to the Commons Chamber and begin debating the contents of the speech. The debate usually takes place over six days, with each day being assigned to a policy area, such as ‘the economy’ or ‘home affairs’."
I believe that post-Prorogation the first Parliamentary vote will be on the Queens Speech. If defeated , a VNOC will take place the next day without the Deal having been presented.
Isn't there a Queens Spech "debate" that lasts a few days before they vote on it?
Lets say boris does get a deal, does his poll rating go up or down?
Up !
Farages betrayal narrative will soon be overtaken by the fact that the UK has actually left.
I don’t like Johnson however if we leave with an orderly exit and a deal then I’ll say well done.
Or down, the header shows most people do not want to Leave. Why would they be impressed?
It wont go down because of that....as all those who are fired up.remainers arent voting tory at the moment. I think it is more those who think boris has sold them a pup.
Another question, what if boris gets a deal but HoC vote it down...
Lets say boris does get a deal, does his poll rating go up or down?
Up !
Farages betrayal narrative will soon be overtaken by the fact that the UK has actually left.
I don’t like Johnson however if we leave with an orderly exit and a deal then I’ll say well done.
Or down, the header shows most people do not want to Leave. Why would they be impressed?
Before all this, 'Europe' usually came well down the issues list. Most people now seem to think that the Leave vote was a mistake, but they may be happy just to see it over. However, it won't be - and the repercussions will all be 'sub-optimal'.
You're translating Varadkar wrong everyone. He's saying F off
Stock up on canned goods.
That depends entirely on whether the EU consider the proposals reasonable and if they therefore consider Ireland is being unreasonable. I make no judgement on that but I do know that if the EU decide this should be the deal then Ireland are very unlikely to be able to stop it since the decision woukd be by QMV.
Not sure it works like that - all 27 have to sign off on it don't they?
The WA is by QMV, any FTA is all 27 parliaments plus some regional ones.
In practice though the EU prized consensus so the distinction is rather theoretical.
You're translating Varadkar wrong everyone. He's saying F off
Stock up on canned goods.
That depends entirely on whether the EU consider the proposals reasonable and if they therefore consider Ireland is being unreasonable. I make no judgement on that but I do know that if the EU decide this should be the deal then Ireland are very unlikely to be able to stop it since the decision woukd be by QMV.
Not sure it works like that - all 27 have to sign off on it don't they?
Not on the Withdrawal Agreement. That is by QMV. Any subsequent trade deal or new arrangements not in the WA are by unanimity. Basically if we piss the Irish off too much they could block whatever they like after we leave.
You're translating Varadkar wrong everyone. He's saying F off
Stock up on canned goods.
That depends entirely on whether the EU consider the proposals reasonable and if they therefore consider Ireland is being unreasonable. I make no judgement on that but I do know that if the EU decide this should be the deal then Ireland are very unlikely to be able to stop it since the decision woukd be by QMV.
Not sure it works like that - all 27 have to sign off on it don't they?
No, the Withdrawal Agreement is QMV, while a deal post exit requires unanimity. It's why it's a whole bunch easier to reach consensus now than later.
I believe that post-Prorogation the first Parliamentary vote will be on the Queens Speech. If defeated , a VNOC will take place the next day without the Deal having been presented.
Isn't there a Queens Spech "debate" that lasts a few days before they vote on it?
Indeed so - but I don't believe Parliament votes on other matters in advance of it.
You're translating Varadkar wrong everyone. He's saying F off
Stock up on canned goods.
That depends entirely on whether the EU consider the proposals reasonable and if they therefore consider Ireland is being unreasonable. I make no judgement on that but I do know that if the EU decide this should be the deal then Ireland are very unlikely to be able to stop it since the decision woukd be by QMV.
The UK's proposal (while unfinished) is broadly a good one. It explicitly hands sovereignty to the people of Northern Ireland to choose whether or not to remain in something akin to the backstop.
Now, there is much that is left undecided by this exit. But that's the nature of negotiating the final arrangements in the transition period.
All-in-all, it's a small but positive improvement on Mrs May's deal and we, the EU and the RoI should take it.
I agree. I would have voted for May's deal but this one is miles better if only because it seems to have a realistic chsnce of getting through Parliament.
Lets say boris does get a deal, does his poll rating go up or down?
Up !
Farages betrayal narrative will soon be overtaken by the fact that the UK has actually left.
I don’t like Johnson however if we leave with an orderly exit and a deal then I’ll say well done.
Or down, the header shows most people do not want to Leave. Why would they be impressed?
It wont go down because of that....as all those who are fired up.remainers arent voting tory at the moment. I think it is more those who think boris has sold them a pup.
Another question, what if boris gets a deal but HoC vote it down...
May got a deal the HOC voted it down so no difference there. The real problem in my mind is it gives a minority in NI the ability to control the outcome which is a disgrace and I bet will not go down well in Congress.
Johnson actually meaningfully moves towards compromise and Varadlar digs his heels in. The Irishman has been completely uncompromising and unreasonable for the entire Brexit process. Enda Kenny seemed like a fair better partner.
If we go to No Deal now, Varadkar will own the bulk of the blame.
I believe that post-Prorogation the first Parliamentary vote will be on the Queens Speech. If defeated , a VNOC will take place the next day without the Deal having been presented.
Isn't there a Queens Spech "debate" that lasts a few days before they vote on it?
Indeed so - but I don't believe Parliament votes on other matters in advance of it.
Given Parliament is so worried about No Deal I'm sure there can be "flexability" in the timing if the Speaker and MPs so wish it.
Lets say boris does get a deal, does his poll rating go up or down?
Up !
Farages betrayal narrative will soon be overtaken by the fact that the UK has actually left.
I don’t like Johnson however if we leave with an orderly exit and a deal then I’ll say well done.
Or down, the header shows most people do not want to Leave. Why would they be impressed?
It wont go down because of that....as all those who are fired up.remainers arent voting tory at the moment. I think it is more those who think boris has sold them a pup.
Another question, what if boris gets a deal but HoC vote it down...
May got a deal the HOC voted it down so no difference there. The real problem in my mind is it gives a minority in NI the ability to control the outcome which is a disgrace and I bet will not go down well in Congress.
No, i meant on poll ratings. Does it torpedo boris / tories or does it play well to his narrative...
At times like this there can be a surge of optimism about a deal which ends up imploding a few days later .
We’ve been here before !
The thing is that expectations are so low that any positive news makes people positive. I think that the 'leaking' of the 'non-papers' was a deliberate ploy to lower expectations on what Boris was going to propose so that anything other than flat no would be greeted warmly. (or at least not like a dose of cold sick)
I believe that post-Prorogation the first Parliamentary vote will be on the Queens Speech. If defeated , a VNOC will take place the next day without the Deal having been presented.
Isn't there a Queens Spech "debate" that lasts a few days before they vote on it?
Indeed so - but I don't believe Parliament votes on other matters in advance of it.
Given Parliament is so worried about No Deal I'm sure there can be "flexability" in the timing if the Speaker and MPs so wish it.
I doubt it - to present any Deal Johnson will have to survive the Queens Speech first.
My conclusion from this week: Boris and Co spent a long time planning their October general election campaign.
The idea that the election was somehow forced upon them was always laughable. They did everything they could precipitate it and are still running the campaign.
It is interesting to reflect on where we (the polls) would be now if there was an Election Day looming.
What a crying shame for them that a black swan swam along. I wonder when the next one is due.
Bearing in mind that the European Union (Withdrawal) (No. 2) Act states that Parliament must have approved a deal (or no deal) before the 19th October otherwise the Prime Minister must request an extension - where is the parliamentary time going to come from?
Bearing in mind that the European Union (Withdrawal) (No. 2) Act states that Parliament must have approved a deal (or no deal) before the 19th October otherwise the Prime Minister must request an extension - where is the parliamentary time going to come from?
I believe that post-Prorogation the first Parliamentary vote will be on the Queens Speech. If defeated , a VNOC will take place the next day without the Deal having been presented.
Isn't there a Queens Spech "debate" that lasts a few days before they vote on it?
Indeed so - but I don't believe Parliament votes on other matters in advance of it.
Given Parliament is so worried about No Deal I'm sure there can be "flexability" in the timing if the Speaker and MPs so wish it.
I doubt it - to present any Deal Johnson will have to survive the Queens Speech first.
If there's a deal that would be lost if the Queen's Speech was voted down - then there will be enough abstentions to see it home. Ken Clark today on R5 said "if Boris gets I deal, I will vote for it."
My conclusion from this week: Boris and Co spent a long time planning their October general election campaign.
The idea that the election was somehow forced upon them was always laughable. They did everything they could precipitate it and are still running the campaign.
It is interesting to reflect on where we (the polls) would be now if there was an Election Day looming.
What a crying shame for them that a black swan swam along. I wonder when the next one is due.
Quite probable that the opposition won’t support an election locking Johnson in a position where he can’t do anything and sit back waiting for the inevitable Johnson scandal
You're translating Varadkar wrong everyone. He's saying F off
Stock up on canned goods.
That depends entirely on whether the EU consider the proposals reasonable and if they therefore consider Ireland is being unreasonable. I make no judgement on that but I do know that if the EU decide this should be the deal then Ireland are very unlikely to be able to stop it since the decision woukd be by QMV.
Not sure it works like that - all 27 have to sign off on it don't they?
No, the Withdrawal Agreement is QMV, while a deal post exit requires unanimity. It's why it's a whole bunch easier to reach consensus now than later.
It is QMV but politically I cannot see the EU forcing Ireland into the resolution of an issue that is deeply important to it, and really only effects it, against its wishes. The EU is not monolithic - it realises the damage done to its Project by the way it was perceived to have treated Greece. It needs its small countries on board. If Ireland says no, however unreasonably, it will be hard for the rest of the EU to override them. And to my mind there are precious few votes in Ireland in saying yes to this.
Bearing in mind that the European Union (Withdrawal) (No. 2) Act states that Parliament must have approved a deal (or no deal) before the 19th October otherwise the Prime Minister must request an extension - where is the parliamentary time going to come from?
Make the deal part of the QS.
But the Act states it must be a “motion”. I don’t know if that is compatible with a QS.
So, QS is 14th October. With five or six days of debate that means the vote will be around 21st/22nd October.
Boris very likely to be presenting a new Brexit deal to Parliament on 21st October.
Brexit passes > QS fails > Election.
I don't think he can present the Deal before the Queens Speech.
Can't the Speaker/MPs "adjourn" the QS debate for a few hours to pass other, more important legislation?
As we've seen in recent months there's a surprising amount of "flexability" within Parliamentary procedure when there needs to be.
I really don't think so - but am happy to be corrected!
Found this:
"What happens to other parliamentary business while the Loyal Address is being debated?
Substantive parliamentary business cannot begin until the new session has formally opened, following the delivery of the Queen’s Speech.
In the Commons, ministers can make statements, the regular schedule of oral questions can begin, and the government can begin to introduce bills. Secondary legislation can also be considered – but the time allocated to the debate on the address takes precedence. However, the debate on the address can be temporarily postponed in order to deal with urgent business – which last happened in 2006 with an emergency bill relating to Northern Ireland – or interrupted by an emergency debate held under Standing Order Number 24.
However, ways and means motions, which relate to money, and Westminster Hall debates cannot be held until the end of debates on the address unless MPs vote to suspend existing rules. This means that a Budget cannot be held until after the debate on the address has finished."
So, QS is 14th October. With five or six days of debate that means the vote will be around 21st/22nd October.
Boris very likely to be presenting a new Brexit deal to Parliament on 21st October.
Brexit passes > QS fails > Election.
I don't think he can present the Deal before the Queens Speech.
Can't the Speaker/MPs "adjourn" the QS debate for a few hours to pass other, more important legislation?
As we've seen in recent months there's a surprising amount of "flexability" within Parliamentary procedure when there needs to be.
I really don't think so - but am happy to be corrected!
Found this:
"What happens to other parliamentary business while the Loyal Address is being debated?
Substantive parliamentary business cannot begin until the new session has formally opened, following the delivery of the Queen’s Speech.
In the Commons, ministers can make statements, the regular schedule of oral questions can begin, and the government can begin to introduce bills. Secondary legislation can also be considered – but the time allocated to the debate on the address takes precedence. However, the debate on the address can be temporarily postponed in order to deal with urgent business – which last happened in 2006 with an emergency bill relating to Northern Ireland – or interrupted by an emergency debate held under Standing Order Number 24.
However, ways and means motions, which relate to money, and Westminster Hall debates cannot be held until the end of debates on the address unless MPs vote to suspend existing rules. This means that a Budget cannot be held until after the debate on the address has finished."
You're translating Varadkar wrong everyone. He's saying F off
Stock up on canned goods.
That depends entirely on whether the EU consider the proposals reasonable and if they therefore consider Ireland is being unreasonable. I make no judgement on that but I do know that if the EU decide this should be the deal then Ireland are very unlikely to be able to stop it since the decision woukd be by QMV.
The UK's proposal (while unfinished) is broadly a good one. It explicitly hands sovereignty to the people of Northern Ireland to choose whether or not to remain in something akin to the backstop.
Now, there is much that is left undecided by this exit. But that's the nature of negotiating the final arrangements in the transition period.
All-in-all, it's a small but positive improvement on Mrs May's deal and we, the EU and the RoI should take it.
We can deduce the EU really do want a Deal that can end this and get through the UK Parliament too.
It looks like the splits may be more on their side this time. I expect, particularly, between France, Germany and Ireland.
Johnson actually meaningfully moves towards compromise and Varadlar digs his heels in. The Irishman has been completely uncompromising and unreasonable for the entire Brexit process. Enda Kenny seemed like a fair better partner.
If we go to No Deal now, Varadkar will own the bulk of the blame.
No deal will always be Johnson fault no one else he will make that decision so it can only be his fault.
So, QS is 14th October. With five or six days of debate that means the vote will be around 21st/22nd October.
Boris very likely to be presenting a new Brexit deal to Parliament on 21st October.
Brexit passes > QS fails > Election.
I don't think he can present the Deal before the Queens Speech.
Can't the Speaker/MPs "adjourn" the QS debate for a few hours to pass other, more important legislation?
As we've seen in recent months there's a surprising amount of "flexability" within Parliamentary procedure when there needs to be.
I really don't think so - but am happy to be corrected!
Erskine May says at para. 18.23: "The transaction of public business is carried on while the proceedings on the Address are in progress, bills being introduced, committees appointed, and statutory instruments considered. The debate on the Address is normally given precedence but it has occasionally been postponed in favour of urgent business including a motion of censure and passage of government bills, and it may be interrupted in the course of a sitting by an emergency debate under Standing Order No 24 (see para 19.22 ). Under Standing Order No 10, Westminster Hall cannot sit until the Address is agreed."
So the Queen's Speech does not prevent other business being taken or voted on. The reference to SO 24 is particularly important.
Bearing in mind that the European Union (Withdrawal) (No. 2) Act states that Parliament must have approved a deal (or no deal) before the 19th October otherwise the Prime Minister must request an extension - where is the parliamentary time going to come from?
17th and 18th October are Thursday and Friday so maybe we''ll have a rare Saturday sitting on Saturday 19th?
Realistically though if its clear Boris has a deal and the numbers for Parliament to approve it I'm sure Monday 21st would be fine.
Bernie Sanders has been hospitalized in Las Vegas after suffering "chest discomfort". He's been diagnosed with one blocked coronary artery and has had two stents fitted. All engagements cancelled until further notice.
My conclusion from this week: Boris and Co spent a long time planning their October general election campaign.
The idea that the election was somehow forced upon them was always laughable. They did everything they could precipitate it and are still running the campaign.
It is interesting to reflect on where we (the polls) would be now if there was an Election Day looming.
What a crying shame for them that a black swan swam along. I wonder when the next one is due.
Very astute. They are still running their original grid. They are now trying to make events fit the grid rather than the grid fit events. You can only do that for so long.
Very generous people in Newcastle. They gave us 5 goals just a few days ago...
On my very first trip to Newcastle, 30 years ago, I got off the train, met my mate, walked into the nearest pub. It was packed (Friday). I asked someone if they would excuse me as I got past them with my rather full weekend bag.
I am concerned that an incoming no-deal Tory leader could checkmate any Remain/soft-Brexit resistance in three moves. If Boris is ensuring that he wants to leave on 31 Oct, this scenario feels like his only option.
After an August of no progress in Europe, PM Boris calls a general election in September looking for a mandate for No Deal. Corbyn agrees. Parliament is dissolved.
The Brexit party steps aside from all Tory MPs supporting the manifesto, but challenges Labour, Soubry etc.
The election campaign is helpfully long, with poling day mid-October undermining this parliament's ability to oppose.
The outcome of the election is determined by FPTP. The remain vote is split as it was in May, but with the Brexit party choosing where to stand we end up with the Tories as the largest party, with a handful of Brexit party MPs providing the majority.
Very generous people in Newcastle. They gave us 5 goals just a few days ago...
On my very first trip to Newcastle, 30 years ago, I got off the train, met my mate, walked into the nearest pub. It was packed (Friday). I asked someone if they would excuse me as I got past them with my rather full weekend bag.
Check out the comments. Brexit alliance fracturing. Nigel looking like he is over reaching
I’d say he was over reaching. Winning the referendum wasn’t the green light for the most eurosceptic form of Brexit.
I don’t know about an alliance fracturing though, there never has been one.
Also I don’t go with the meme that Farage wants to derail Brexit to stay in the spotlight. He will be in the media spotlight for the rest of his days anyway, should he want to be
No, Trump actually wants to run against the left liberal Warren rather than the centrist, charismatic Biden but hopes to persuade Democrats through statements like this not to pick the candidate he most fears
Not sure why the Tories need a QS . If there’s a GE coming it seems pointless , although of course they get loads of free media coverage!
Because the opposition will vote it down and Boris will be all over the airways with "I wanted to invest stop knife crime, spend more on the nHS, pay teachers more, etc. What have the opposition got against this?"
So, QS is 14th October. With five or six days of debate that means the vote will be around 21st/22nd October.
Boris very likely to be presenting a new Brexit deal to Parliament on 21st October.
Brexit passes > QS fails > Election.
I don't think he can present the Deal before the Queens Speech.
Can't the Speaker/MPs "adjourn" the QS debate for a few hours to pass other, more important legislation?
As we've seen in recent months there's a surprising amount of "flexability" within Parliamentary procedure when there needs to be.
I really don't think so - but am happy to be corrected!
Erskine May says at para. 18.23: "The transaction of public business is carried on while the proceedings on the Address are in progress, bills being introduced, committees appointed, and statutory instruments considered. The debate on the Address is normally given precedence but it has occasionally been postponed in favour of urgent business including a motion of censure and passage of government bills, and it may be interrupted in the course of a sitting by an emergency debate under Standing Order No 24 (see para 19.22 ). Under Standing Order No 10, Westminster Hall cannot sit until the Address is agreed."
So the Queen's Speech does not prevent other business being taken or voted on. The reference to SO 24 is particularly important.
Ok - but it seems unlikely that an emergency debate would be allowed simply to pre-empt the possibility of defeat on the Queens Speech.
if you look at some of the underlying numbers it's been coming for a while. Unfortunately they won't be able to cut interest rates this time to prop up the economy.
We have had 39 months of parliamentary chaos thanks to MPs refusing to back any form of us leaving, relentless media on how awful it is going to be if we do leave, is it any wonder that some people are beginning to wish it had never happened?
I would compare it to going out drinking with your mates, having a right good laugh, coming home 8 hours late, then being put in the doghouse for a month... I bet a significant minority of men would say it wasnt worth it. The difference is that voting Leave wasnt something to be put in the doghouse for
And come next month, they'd still vote to do it all again!
Yes I don’t think that split for ‘it was a mistake’ should be an interpreted as ‘definite Remain next time’
Lets say boris does get a deal, does his poll rating go up or down?
Up !
Farages betrayal narrative will soon be overtaken by the fact that the UK has actually left.
I don’t like Johnson however if we leave with an orderly exit and a deal then I’ll say well done.
Or down, the header shows most people do not want to Leave. Why would they be impressed?
It wont go down because of that....as all those who are fired up.remainers arent voting tory at the moment. I think it is more those who think boris has sold them a pup.
Another question, what if boris gets a deal but HoC vote it down...
Boris has ensured he got DUP and ERG approval for his proposals first, unlike May, precisely to ensure the Commons would not vote it down if the EU agreed to it, given Tories plus DUP plus Labour and Independent MPs who voted for the Withdrawal Agreement are still more than anti Withdrawal Agreement Labour plus SNP plus LDs plus CUK plus Green plus Plaid
You're translating Varadkar wrong everyone. He's saying F off
Stock up on canned goods.
That depends entirely on whether the EU consider the proposals reasonable and if they therefore consider Ireland is being unreasonable. I make no judgement on that but I do know that if the EU decide this should be the deal then Ireland are very unlikely to be able to stop it since the decision woukd be by QMV.
The UK's proposal (while unfinished) is broadly a good one. It explicitly hands sovereignty to the people of Northern Ireland to choose whether or not to remain in something akin to the backstop.
Now, there is much that is left undecided by this exit. But that's the nature of negotiating the final arrangements in the transition period.
All-in-all, it's a small but positive improvement on Mrs May's deal and we, the EU and the RoI should take it.
It hands the DUP a veto over whether the Good Friday Agreement continues to be respected, an Agreement the DUP has always opposed. It creates a customs border in Ireland, when the UK had committed to no border. The Irish would be crazy to agree to it and I would be pretty surprised if they do. I think this is a deal that is designed to be rejected, teeing up an election where Johnson blames everyone but the Tory party for the hole the Tory party has landed us in. Who knows, it might well work.
You're translating Varadkar wrong everyone. He's saying F off
Stock up on canned goods.
Verhofstadt has said that there would be a point by point dismantling of, sorry response to, the proposal and why it doesn't meet the objectives tomorrow. We'll know for sure tomorrow.
They (Dublin especially) have been bad faith negotiators all along - why would they change?
Not Dublin, just Varadkar. he's enjoyed having the power over the UK.
I wonder what his chances are if he has to go to the voters saying "the EU made me do it...."?
So, QS is 14th October. With five or six days of debate that means the vote will be around 21st/22nd October.
Boris very likely to be presenting a new Brexit deal to Parliament on 21st October.
Brexit passes > QS fails > Election.
I don't think he can present the Deal before the Queens Speech.
Can't the Speaker/MPs "adjourn" the QS debate for a few hours to pass other, more important legislation?
As we've seen in recent months there's a surprising amount of "flexability" within Parliamentary procedure when there needs to be.
I really don't think so - but am happy to be corrected!
Erskine May says at para. 18.23: "The transaction of public business is carried on while the proceedings on the Address are in progress, bills being introduced, committees appointed, and statutory instruments considered. The debate on the Address is normally given precedence but it has occasionally been postponed in favour of urgent business including a motion of censure and passage of government bills, and it may be interrupted in the course of a sitting by an emergency debate under Standing Order No 24 (see para 19.22 ). Under Standing Order No 10, Westminster Hall cannot sit until the Address is agreed."
So the Queen's Speech does not prevent other business being taken or voted on. The reference to SO 24 is particularly important.
Ok - but it seems unlikely that an emergency debate would be allowed simply to pre-empt the possibility of defeat on the Queens Speech.
That's up to the Speaker. But it does mean that the government can't run down the clock by using up days for the Queen's Speech. It would still be possible, for example, to use SO 24 to create time to put through a bill reinforcing or clarifying the Benn Act or to vote on a motion of no confidence.
Maybe Boris wants enough Labour MPs to say they will back the deal if the EU agree to then shaft the DUP when the EU come back asking for a referendum in NI instead of Stormont approval.
Queens speech is a massive playground for the Con manifesto- no brainer to have one.
Tax cuts and NHS bungs - which Labour will vote down - the fools.
I am sure the Opposition would welcome the opportunity to expose their hypocrisy and to remind voters of the decade of Austerity. Their own proposals will also be aired.
Not sure why the Tories need a QS . If there’s a GE coming it seems pointless , although of course they get loads of free media coverage!
I think they are banking on passing a deal (say on 19th or 21st) so we leave on 31st (or as good as) then having their QS voted down (say on 21st or 22nd) then having an election on 28th November or 5th December.
I alwasys thought it was odd they would have a QS on 14th with EU summit on 17th and 18th but it's starting to make sense...
So, QS is 14th October. With five or six days of debate that means the vote will be around 21st/22nd October.
Boris very likely to be presenting a new Brexit deal to Parliament on 21st October.
Brexit passes > QS fails > Election.
I don't think he can present the Deal before the Queens Speech.
Can't the Speaker/MPs "adjourn" the QS debate for a few hours to pass other, more important legislation?
As we've seen in recent months there's a surprising amount of "flexability" within Parliamentary procedure when there needs to be.
I really don't think so - but am happy to be corrected!
Erskine May says at para. 18.23: "The transaction of public business is carried on while the proceedings on the Address are in progress, bills being introduced, committees appointed, and statutory instruments considered. The debate on the Address is normally given precedence but it has occasionally been postponed in favour of urgent business including a motion of censure and passage of government bills, and it may be interrupted in the course of a sitting by an emergency debate under Standing Order No 24 (see para 19.22 ). Under Standing Order No 10, Westminster Hall cannot sit until the Address is agreed."
So the Queen's Speech does not prevent other business being taken or voted on. The reference to SO 24 is particularly important.
Ok - but it seems unlikely that an emergency debate would be allowed simply to pre-empt the possibility of defeat on the Queens Speech.
That's up to the Speaker. But it does mean that the government can't run down the clock by using up days for the Queen's Speech. It would still be possible, for example, to use SO 24 to create time to put through a bill reinforcing or clarifying the Benn Act or to vote on a motion of no confidence.
Thanks for that. I had not appreciated that a VNOC could be tabled in advance of the Queens Speech vote.
Queens speech is a massive playground for the Con manifesto- no brainer to have one.
Tax cuts and NHS bungs - which Labour will vote down - the fools.
I am sure the Opposition would welcome the opportunity to expose their hypocrisy and to remind voters of the decade of Austerity. Their own proposals will also be aired.
I am surprised to learn the Opposition would be anxious to tell people of their hypocrisy.
You're translating Varadkar wrong everyone. He's saying F off
Stock up on canned goods.
That depends entirely on whether the EU consider the proposals reasonable and if they therefore consider Ireland is being unreasonable. I make no judgement on that but I do know that if the EU decide this should be the deal then Ireland are very unlikely to be able to stop it since the decision woukd be by QMV.
The UK's proposal (while unfinished) is broadly a good one. It explicitly hands sovereignty to the people of Northern Ireland to choose whether or not to remain in something akin to the backstop.
Now, there is much that is left undecided by this exit. But that's the nature of negotiating the final arrangements in the transition period.
All-in-all, it's a small but positive improvement on Mrs May's deal and we, the EU and the RoI should take it.
It hands the DUP a veto over whether the Good Friday Agreement continues to be respected, an Agreement the DUP has always opposed. It creates a customs border in Ireland, when the UK had committed to no border. The Irish would be crazy to agree to it and I would be pretty surprised if they do. I think this is a deal that is designed to be rejected, teeing up an election where Johnson blames everyone but the Tory party for the hole the Tory party has landed us in. Who knows, it might well work.
Too many people think the DUP are NI but they are not this is where it fails and rightly so.
You're translating Varadkar wrong everyone. He's saying F off
Stock up on canned goods.
That depends entirely on whether the EU consider the proposals reasonable and if they therefore consider Ireland is being unreasonable. I make no judgement on that but I do know that if the EU decide this should be the deal then Ireland are very unlikely to be able to stop it since the decision woukd be by QMV.
The UK's proposal (while unfinished) is broadly a good one. It explicitly hands sovereignty to the people of Northern Ireland to choose whether or not to remain in something akin to the backstop.
Now, there is much that is left undecided by this exit. But that's the nature of negotiating the final arrangements in the transition period.
All-in-all, it's a small but positive improvement on Mrs May's deal and we, the EU and the RoI should take it.
It hands the DUP a veto over whether the Good Friday Agreement continues to be respected, an Agreement the DUP has always opposed. It creates a customs border in Ireland, when the UK had committed to no border. The Irish would be crazy to agree to it and I would be pretty surprised if they do. I think this is a deal that is designed to be rejected, teeing up an election where Johnson blames everyone but the Tory party for the hole the Tory party has landed us in. Who knows, it might well work.
Too many people think the DUP are NI but they are not this is where it fails and rightly so.
I'm puzzled by this proposal given the likelihood of massive ructions sooner or later with the DUP tail wagging the two states' dogs. I did find myself wondering if Mr Johnson is trying to resolve the Brexit problem by pushing Ireland into reunification.
You're translating Varadkar wrong everyone. He's saying F off
Stock up on canned goods.
That depends entirely on whether the EU consider the proposals reasonable and if they therefore consider Ireland is being unreasonable. I make no judgement on that but I do know that if the EU decide this should be the deal then Ireland are very unlikely to be able to stop it since the decision woukd be by QMV.
The UK's proposal (while unfinished) is broadly a good one. It explicitly hands sovereignty to the people of Northern Ireland to choose whether or not to remain in something akin to the backstop.
Now, there is much that is left undecided by this exit. But that's the nature of negotiating the final arrangements in the transition period.
All-in-all, it's a small but positive improvement on Mrs May's deal and we, the EU and the RoI should take it.
It hands the DUP a veto over whether the Good Friday Agreement continues to be respected, an Agreement the DUP has always opposed. It creates a customs border in Ireland, when the UK had committed to no border. The Irish would be crazy to agree to it and I would be pretty surprised if they do. I think this is a deal that is designed to be rejected, teeing up an election where Johnson blames everyone but the Tory party for the hole the Tory party has landed us in. Who knows, it might well work.
Too many people think the DUP are NI but they are not this is where it fails and rightly so.
I'm puzzled by this proposal given the likelihood of massive ructions sooner or later with the DUP tail wagging the two states' dogs. I did find myself wondering if Mr Johnson is trying to resolve the Brexit problem by pushing Ireland into reunification.
You're translating Varadkar wrong everyone. He's saying F off
Stock up on canned goods.
That depends entirely on whether the EU consider the proposals reasonable and if they therefore consider Ireland is being unreasonable. I make no judgement on that but I do know that if the EU decide this should be the deal then Ireland are very unlikely to be able to stop it since the decision woukd be by QMV.
The UK's proposal (while unfinished) is broadly a good one. It explicitly hands sovereignty to the people of Northern Ireland to choose whether or not to remain in something akin to the backstop.
Now, there is much that is left undecided by this exit. But that's the nature of negotiating the final arrangements in the transition period.
All-in-all, it's a small but positive improvement on Mrs May's deal and we, the EU and the RoI should take it.
It hands the DUP a veto over whether the Good Friday Agreement continues to be respected, an Agreement the DUP has always opposed. It creates a customs border in Ireland, when the UK had committed to no border. The Irish would be crazy to agree to it and I would be pretty surprised if they do. I think this is a deal that is designed to be rejected, teeing up an election where Johnson blames everyone but the Tory party for the hole the Tory party has landed us in. Who knows, it might well work.
Too many people think the DUP are NI but they are not this is where it fails and rightly so.
Yet the SNP are never challenged that they aren’t Scotland.
Comments
Now, there is much that is left undecided by this exit. But that's the nature of negotiating the final arrangements in the transition period.
All-in-all, it's a small but positive improvement on Mrs May's deal and we, the EU and the RoI should take it.
"The Queen’s Speech is the centrepiece of the State Opening of Parliament: the official start of the new session. It normally takes place in May, but this can vary, particularly in a year when a general election is held.
The speech itself is written by the Government and is delivered by the Queen in the Chamber of the House of Lords. Its main function is to announce the Government’s priorities and to list the bills that they plan to introduce in the coming session.
MPs are summoned to the Lords Chamber by Black Rod (a Lords official) to watch the Queen deliver her speech.
When the ceremony is complete, MPs return to the Commons Chamber and begin debating the contents of the speech. The debate usually takes place over six days, with each day being assigned to a policy area, such as ‘the economy’ or ‘home affairs’."
https://beta.parliament.uk/articles/jbJM4p4H
"A couple of hours after the speech has been given, MPs reassemble in the House of Commons to begin debating its contents.
After introductory speeches by two MPs, the prime minister will "sell" the speech to the Commons, setting out their vision for the country.
The leader of the opposition then gets their chance to respond, before other MPs are allowed to contribute.
The debate on what is known as the "Humble Address" normally lasts about five days.
At the end of the debate there is a vote. It's normally seen as symbolic, as it is extremely rare for a government to lose it."
Another question, what if boris gets a deal but HoC vote it down...
Most people now seem to think that the Leave vote was a mistake, but they may be happy just to see it over.
However, it won't be - and the repercussions will all be 'sub-optimal'.
In practice though the EU prized consensus so the distinction is rather theoretical.
We’ve been here before !
Boris very likely to be presenting a new Brexit deal to Parliament on 21st October.
Brexit passes > QS fails > Election.
If we go to No Deal now, Varadkar will own the bulk of the blame.
https://twitter.com/visitneengland/status/1179343722582024193?s=21
"because it seems to have a realistic chance of getting through Parliament."
How? Labour won't vote for it because it's a Tory deal. The other opposition parties won't because they can smell total victory, as can the EU.
As we've seen in recent months there's a surprising amount of "flexability" within Parliamentary procedure when there needs to be.
The idea that the election was somehow forced upon them was always laughable. They did everything they could precipitate it and are still running the campaign.
It is interesting to reflect on where we (the polls) would be now if there was an Election Day looming.
What a crying shame for them that a black swan swam along. I wonder when the next one is due.
Most of these places people describe as “friendly” are absolutely ghastly.
"What happens to other parliamentary business while the Loyal Address is being debated?
Substantive parliamentary business cannot begin until the new session has formally opened, following the delivery of the Queen’s Speech.
In the Commons, ministers can make statements, the regular schedule of oral questions can begin, and the government can begin to introduce bills. Secondary legislation can also be considered – but the time allocated to the debate on the address takes precedence. However, the debate on the address can be temporarily postponed in order to deal with urgent business – which last happened in 2006 with an emergency bill relating to Northern Ireland – or interrupted by an emergency debate held under Standing Order Number 24.
However, ways and means motions, which relate to money, and Westminster Hall debates cannot be held until the end of debates on the address unless MPs vote to suspend existing rules. This means that a Budget cannot be held until after the debate on the address has finished."
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/queen-speech
I think though that the Tories have retoxified themselves in English Remania as they did a couple of decades ago in Scotland.
It looks like the splits may be more on their side this time. I expect, particularly, between France, Germany and Ireland.
No deal will always be Johnson fault no one else he will make that decision so it can only be his fault.
"The transaction of public business is carried on while the proceedings on the Address are in progress, bills being introduced, committees appointed, and statutory instruments considered. The debate on the Address is normally given precedence but it has occasionally been postponed in favour of urgent business including a motion of censure and passage of government bills, and it may be interrupted in the course of a sitting by an emergency debate under Standing Order No 24 (see para 19.22 ). Under Standing Order No 10, Westminster Hall cannot sit until the Address is agreed."
So the Queen's Speech does not prevent other business being taken or voted on. The reference to SO 24 is particularly important.
Realistically though if its clear Boris has a deal and the numbers for Parliament to approve it I'm sure Monday 21st would be fine.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/02/us/politics/bernie-sanders-health.html
Tempting to lay. It seems way too early for her to be home and dry for the nomination.
"No. Fuck off."
Tax cuts and NHS bungs - which Labour will vote down - the fools.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49912390
I don’t know about an alliance fracturing though, there never has been one.
Also I don’t go with the meme that Farage wants to derail Brexit to stay in the spotlight. He will be in the media spotlight for the rest of his days anyway, should he want to be
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election/trump-biden-2020-election-democrat-primary-gop-a8887496.html
If there is a next time
I alwasys thought it was odd they would have a QS on 14th with EU summit on 17th and 18th but it's starting to make sense...
Hmmmmm
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-49908660