politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the day of Johnson’s Brexit plan the latest polling on how
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the day of Johnson’s Brexit plan the latest polling on how voters view the referendum decision
This is YouGov’s tracker which has been asked least twice a month since the referendum in June 2016. The format of the question has been unchanged and in the early day just about all the findings had Brexit being “right”.
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https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/what-is-brexit-psychosis/ar-AAI9Vil
The truth is that Brexit has already destroyed the UK. It is becoming a pale shadow of the country it was 5 years ago.
Lets say this is the sequence:
QS on 14th October.
Boris gets his deal on 17th/18th October.
Boris presents his deal to Parliament on 21st October. Passes. 31st October is secured as date we leave.
QS is voted on 21st/22nd October. It fails.
One line election bill is presented to Parliament 23rd October. Passes with Con + DUP + SNP + Lib-Dem votes
Election held on 28th November or 5th December.
It's bloody nearly impossible.
I voted remain. I did give it serious thought, because there was nothing about Cameron’s deal getting EU to agree there’s different lanes with different speeds, and in many ways we weren’t entirely in the EU project and never will be. That would have nailed me onto accept his deal without serious thought
But if we brexit this year or next, and honour 2016 referendum, not a shred of doubt in my mind in 8 years time we will be right back in again.
No one believes brexit is for keeps with the electorate morphing and knowledge of brexit shifting do they?
Dominoes
Big problem for the EU and Ireland is this effectively gives the DUP a veto . There’s no way they’ll agree to that .
I would also estimate that while agreement is moving from possible to likely. It is still only a 50-60% chance. There are still hurdles here, both foreign and domestic.
I think there is a little hyperbole here. For 99.9% of the population life is continuing in the UK pretty much as before.
And removing it will therefore always become something for another day.
I would also like to point out that this is almost exactly what I predicted, and which I was poopooed about on here.
EU clearly looking on with interest.
Labours reaction is entirely unsurprising
They don’t give a rats backside about Corbyn who’ll nationalise the utilities many of the EU States own. None of them want a Communist UK next door. They can’t afford the eventual food drops and economic aid for one.
Tick tock.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/02/johnsons-new-plan-for-border-disastrous-say-northern-irish-leaders
https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1179438575491911681
I would compare it to going out drinking with your mates, having a right good laugh, coming home 8 hours late, then being put in the doghouse for a month... I bet a significant minority of men would say it wasnt worth it. The difference is that voting Leave wasnt something to be put in the doghouse for
The irony is that Sinn Fein would have mitigate the power that the DUP appear to have if they took their seats in the commons. Not because of the numbers, although that would matter, but because the government would have to take their opinions into account. as they do not, the government can, to a certain extent, ignore them.
Lib Dem’s should have pushed for that election...
Says tinker with and agree to me
He’s still 25-30 short. Needs a few expelled Tories to party and probably another good 15-20 Labour MPs.
The public probably in the same place . And the EU are fed up and sick of Brexit and want to move on .
If the EU and UK can sort out the governance part which stops the DUP from having a veto then I’m hopeful of a deal , however of course trying to keep the DUP onside then is another matter .
I’m even more hopeful of a deal after that .
Stock up on canned goods.
Check out the comments. Brexit alliance fracturing. Nigel looking like he is over reaching
If the agreement was finalised now, we would probably make it on October 31st. Realistically, though, we're likely to come to an agreement on about the 18th or 19th, and it will take three weeks to get this into tight legal agreement and through the various parliaments.
Maybe that’s too harsh.
“Nigel” is too distracted by his hatred for Cummings to think rationally.
It’s the ERG wing of his Brexit party voting alliance that might defect and he has to worry about.
Of course, that does depend on the Spartans coming out for it first.
What about the level playing field commitments?
This gives the DUP the ability to hold out a begging bowl develop a compelling proposition for economic development investment every 4 years from now until eternity
Farages betrayal narrative will soon be overtaken by the fact that the UK has actually left.
I don’t like Johnson however if we leave with an orderly exit and a deal then I’ll say well done.
The only difference between Mrs May's deal and this one is that the backstop is timelimited to four years unless the Northern Irish wish it otherwise. (Which they will. The reality is, of course, that Northern Ireland would have left the backstop under Mrs May's deal, but never will under this one.)
Something that happens in negotiations all the time.
All part of the game.
That’s the difference.
On the contrary, the Irish have had the power in the negotiation with the UK this time around (which is pretty unusual for relations between the two countries), and have used it to their advantage by demanding more than we feel comfortable.
They have stated what they want, and they are sincere in those demands. They know the consequences of No Deal. It's our job to call their bluff (or not).
That's not bad faith.