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I leafleted and canvassed for the LDs in this seat in 2010 when it was a marginal with Lab. Can't say I picked up much nationalist sentiment but I was probably quite a shit canvasser. If the SNP can win here it really is all to play for come #indyref2 but the value must be with the ConsStuartDickson said:SNP shortening again in Con-held Aberdeen South:
SNP 2/5 (from 1/2)
Con 7/4
LD 25/1
Lab 100/1
(Shadsy)
Note: Labour held this seat, with respectable majorities, until 2015. Amazing to remember how far and how fast they have fallen.0 -
That's with SNP 40 to 42% rangesarissa said:
Does this assumes an unchanged SNP vote? IMO, the crucial measure is the SNP lead over SCon - anything over 14% starts a steady stream of seats falling, but extinction (except for Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk) needs an lead of 25% or more.dyedwoolie said:Ok I'm going to have a go at the Scot Tory prospects and what they would need to hold some, or any of their seats. I'm working on the assumption that if the Tories get the following % in Scotland, they can try and hold as follows (I expect labour to be wiped out bar Ed south and LDs to hold 4 and toss up in Fife, so this is where I see betting interest)
16% - hold Berwickshire
18% - Mundell holds
20% - hold Aberdeenshire
22% - hold Banff
23% - hold Aberdeen South
Any higher and they have chances of holding Renfrewshire, Dumfries and Galloway, Angus and Moray and taking Perth
I expect them to poll between 15 and 20%0 -
I fully respect the UN but I disagree with it.....TOPPING said:
The UN definition of a child is under 18. It was and is very relevant when dealing with actual child soldiers and the problems thereof.noneoftheabove said:
Still you are not a child (imo). You are generally capable of independent living.TOPPING said:
You can't go on operations at that age.noneoftheabove said:
That is crazy considering you can join the army at 16. Perhaps someone will take the MoD to court for encouraging child soldiers!Martin_Kinsella said:
16 and 17 year olds are, now, legally children so extending the franchise to them would be problematic.Martin_Kinsella said:
Labour would go for the former not the latter.Stereotomy said:By the way, has anyone discussed the possibility that a LAB, LD, SNP supported temporary government might change electoral law in their favour before calling an election? Like lowering voter age or (much less likely) changing from FPTP to something that neutralises the vote-splitting problem that LD and Lab have right now?
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The following excerpt from an article (HuffPost) made me raise an eyebrow by 1/4 of an inch.
At a meeting of the “political” cabinet last night (held in No.10, but no civil servants allowed), Tory co-chairman Ben Elliot announced that this month had been the party’s most successful September fundraising month. Ever.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/how-money-and-messaging-could-win-johnson-his-no-surrender-election/ar-AAHTAhW?ocid=spartanntp0 -
People at private school don't need to vote, since they all end up running the country anyway.kinabalu said:
Votes at 16 - unless you are at private school.Stereotomy said:By the way, has anyone discussed the possibility that a LAB, LD, SNP supported temporary government might change electoral law in their favour before calling an election? Like lowering voter age or (much less likely) changing from FPTP to something that neutralises the vote-splitting problem that LD and Lab have right now?
That would bring 2 policy initiatives together quite neatly.0 -
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Given our enemies these days think the Manchester Arena or a place of worship are legitimate targets, I think that distinction is redundant.SouthamObserver said:
Being in the Army would put you somewhere that is a legitimate military target in any conflict, though, wouldn't it?TOPPING said:
You can't go on operations at that age.noneoftheabove said:
That is crazy considering you can join the army at 16. Perhaps someone will take the MoD to court for encouraging child soldiers!Martin_Kinsella said:
16 and 17 year olds are, now, legally children so extending the franchise to them would be problematic.Martin_Kinsella said:
Labour would go for the former not the latter.Stereotomy said:By the way, has anyone discussed the possibility that a LAB, LD, SNP supported temporary government might change electoral law in their favour before calling an election? Like lowering voter age or (much less likely) changing from FPTP to something that neutralises the vote-splitting problem that LD and Lab have right now?
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Not necessarily. Revoking Article 50 simply stops the ticking clock. It is an essential part in two of the three reasonable solutions to the crisis.Byronic said:
Revoke is extraordinarily irresponsible. It's the sort of breezy constitutional wheeze David Cameron might have devised, to get himself out of a fix.
Even revoking and sweeping the whole thing under the carpet, while unlikely to solve the generic rage, might provide space for other political processes. And you can't fault the Lib Dems on their clarity. They know where they stand on this issue.0 -
At least at that point there were actual women on PB defending Cameron, including, if you can get your head round it, Plato. I think at one point she breathlessly announced that she'd marry him in a heartbeat.GIN1138 said:
Takes me back to PBs glory days and Tim posting 24/7 about Cameron's "woman problem" from 2012 to 2015.AlastairMeeks said:Further to my comments earlier:
https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1177481719739375621
The BJ fans on here nowadays seem uniformly XY.0 -
I was under the impression that Independent Conservative (like independent labour or liberal) is not allowed as a party name anymore according to the electoral commission. I may be wrong....willing to be shot down here.MarqueeMark said:
Anywhere offers better prospects than Hastings, eh?williamglenn said:
I suspect she might choose Westminster, to help Chuka.....0 -
Change UK may be less opposed to such a move on a Caretaker basis - particularly when faced with the alternative of continuing with Johnson. Hopkins and Williamson would also vote for Corbyn.dyedwoolie said:
Lab plus ld (in the wholly unlikely scenario Chuka and Berger vote for someone they detest) plus plaid plus Lucas plus SNP = 305, add Bebb and Clarke 307 minus mann 306justin124 said:
Bebb and Clarke have indicated - whilst still Tory MPs - that they might vote forCorbyn. Berger and Umunna would surely be bound now by the LD Whip. Not impossible that a dozen ex-Tory MPs would abstain.dyedwoolie said:
Luciana and Chuka would never support him even if the Lds did, of the indies Austin is a definite no, Mann would vote no, change would vote no, see Gapes excoriating tweets about him, Lady Hermon is a no, Kate Hoey may abstain and Frank Field almost certainly a no. The non change ex change indies are a no except possibly Heidi Allen. The ex t8ries would at best abstain. He hasn't got the numbers other indies also likely to be nojustin124 said:
Can ChangeUK and Nick Boles be persuaded? How many of the ex-Tories who had the Whip withdrawn might support Corbyn - or abstain. Bebb and Clarke are possibilities - maybe Greening too now that she is standing down?spudgfsh said:
That's stating the obvious isn't it. The problem is Jo Swinson won't go for Jeremy Corbyn (and neither will any of the Tory independents) but Jeremy Corbyn won't go for anyone but himself. It also doesn't do much to prevent a no-deal at the end of January from a (potential) Tory majority.williamglenn said:
Tories plus DUP plus change = 303. Add in hermon, Austin, Lewis, mann, elphicke = 308. He needs active support from indies, most of whom despise him0 -
I think we need to factor in the personal aspect of the dreadful Ross Thomson. They don't call him 'SNP Gain' for nothing.JBriskinindyref2 said:
I leafleted and canvassed for the LDs in this seat in 2010 when it was a marginal with Lab. Can't say I picked up much nationalist sentiment but I was probably quite a shit canvasser. If the SNP can win here it really is all to play for come #indyref2 but the value must be with the ConsStuartDickson said:SNP shortening again in Con-held Aberdeen South:
SNP 2/5 (from 1/2)
Con 7/4
LD 25/1
Lab 100/1
(Shadsy)
Note: Labour held this seat, with respectable majorities, until 2015. Amazing to remember how far and how fast they have fallen.
I live in Berwickshire, and BRS is probably the most likely to hold for the Tories, albeit with a massively reduced majority.0 -
Cummings is heading for a fall. This much is certain. When even the Telegraph makes him look like Mephistopheles the writing is on the wall............TheScreamingEagles said:
(Memo To HYUFD. A vacancy might be opening up)1 -
Nor the right wing and its problems with both.Philip_Thompson said:
Leavers?Gallowgate said:
The leavers will be along soon to tell them they had it coming.williamglenn said:
As a leaver I abhor racism I don't wish to be associated with the left and the Labour parties hatred of Jews and "Soros".
Most of the venom aimed at Soros I have seen has come from right wingers. Some of the stuff around the inspirational Greta Thunberg has been appalling and it is predominantly right wingers who claim Soros is a malign global controller using Thunberg to achieve his aims when all she is, really, is a well meaning kid trying to save the planet.
Still, its all Corbyn, innit.
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It is bonkers, I agree.noneoftheabove said:
That is crazy considering you can join the army at 16. Perhaps someone will take the MoD to court for encouraging child soldiers!Martin_Kinsella said:
16 and 17 year olds are, now, legally children so extending the franchise to them would be problematic.Martin_Kinsella said:
Labour would go for the former not the latter.Stereotomy said:By the way, has anyone discussed the possibility that a LAB, LD, SNP supported temporary government might change electoral law in their favour before calling an election? Like lowering voter age or (much less likely) changing from FPTP to something that neutralises the vote-splitting problem that LD and Lab have right now?
Legally two 16 year olds can enjoy intimacy but if they take pictures of each other in intimate poses then that is classed as child pornography.0 -
Admittedly I don't go hunting for this stuff, but you are the first person I've seen draw a connection between Soros and Thunberg.Martin_Kinsella said:
Nor the right wing and its problems with both.Philip_Thompson said:
Leavers?Gallowgate said:
The leavers will be along soon to tell them they had it coming.williamglenn said:
As a leaver I abhor racism I don't wish to be associated with the left and the Labour parties hatred of Jews and "Soros".
Most of the venom aimed at Soros I have seen has come from right wingers. Some of the stuff around the inspirational Greta Thunberg has been appalling and it is predominantly right wingers who claim Soros is a malign global controller using Thunberg to achieve his aims when all she is, really, is a well meaning kid trying to save the planet.
Still, its all Corbyn, innit.0 -
Since you have to persuade incumbents to pass the change and nobody wants to vote themselves out of a job, it might be easier to keep the same seats and quadruple the number of MPs.OblitusSumMe said:
I'm not advocating this, but if you wanted to change to STV in a hurry you could do so without a full boundary review by simply grouping existing seats together as an interim measure until a full boundary review was completed.dyedwoolie said:Changing from FPTP impossible unless they firm a full term coalition, theres no time to arrange things on a different system, if moving to STV, theres probably no chance of the boundary review being ready for 2022
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Actually, to correct you, I have not drawn a link others have I have merely reported it.tlg86 said:
Admittedly I don't go hunting for this stuff, but you are the first person I've seen draw a connection between Soros and Thunberg.Martin_Kinsella said:
Nor the right wing and its problems with both.Philip_Thompson said:
Leavers?Gallowgate said:
The leavers will be along soon to tell them they had it coming.williamglenn said:
As a leaver I abhor racism I don't wish to be associated with the left and the Labour parties hatred of Jews and "Soros".
Most of the venom aimed at Soros I have seen has come from right wingers. Some of the stuff around the inspirational Greta Thunberg has been appalling and it is predominantly right wingers who claim Soros is a malign global controller using Thunberg to achieve his aims when all she is, really, is a well meaning kid trying to save the planet.
Still, its all Corbyn, innit.
Facebook politics groups and twitter is full of it. All from right wingers. It's vile.
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The chances of Change voting for Corbyn are zero. They might abstain, that's very unlikely.justin124 said:
Change UK may be less opposed to such a move on a Caretaker basis - particularly when faced with the alternative of continuing with Johnson. Hopkins and Williamson would also vote for Corbyn.dyedwoolie said:
Lab plus ld (in the wholly unlikely scenario Chuka and Berger vote for someone they detest) plus plaid plus Lucas plus SNP = 305, add Bebb and Clarke 307 minus mann 306justin124 said:
Bebb and Clarke have indicated - whilst still Tory MPs - that they might vote forCorbyn. Berger and Umunna would surely be bound now by the LD Whip. Not impossible that a dozen ex-Tory MPs would abstain.dyedwoolie said:
Luciana and Chuka would never support him even if the Lds did, of the indies Austin is a definite no, Mann would vote no, change would vote no, see Gapes excoriating tweets about him, Lady Hermon is a no, Kate Hoey may abstain and Frank Field almost certainly a no. The non change ex change indies are a no except possibly Heidi Allen. The ex t8ries would at best abstain. He hasn't got the numbers other indies also likely to be nojustin124 said:
Can ChangeUK and Nick Boles be persuaded? How many of the ex-Tories who had the Whip withdrawn might support Corbyn - or abstain. Bebb and Clarke are possibilities - maybe Greening too now that she is standing down?spudgfsh said:
That's stating the obvious isn't it. The problem is Jo Swinson won't go for Jeremy Corbyn (and neither will any of the Tory independents) but Jeremy Corbyn won't go for anyone but himself. It also doesn't do much to prevent a no-deal at the end of January from a (potential) Tory majority.williamglenn said:
Tories plus DUP plus change = 303. Add in hermon, Austin, Lewis, mann, elphicke = 308. He needs active support from indies, most of whom despise him
And tbh there's no way luciana Berger votes in favour of Corbyn. Nor chuka. They'd abstain or vote against.0 -
And don't forget YouTube, totally ignored by commentators and in some ways a much more powerful radicalizing medium.Martin_Kinsella said:
Actually, to correct you, I have not drawn a link others have I have merely reported it.
Facebook politics groups and twitter is full of it. All from right wingers. It's vile.0 -
Perhaps given some of the ****s people have voted for, the age of criminal responsibility should be in line with voting age.noneoftheabove said:
That is crazy considering you can join the army at 16. Perhaps someone will take the MoD to court for encouraging child soldiers!Martin_Kinsella said:
16 and 17 year olds are, now, legally children so extending the franchise to them would be problematic.Martin_Kinsella said:
Labour would go for the former not the latter.Stereotomy said:By the way, has anyone discussed the possibility that a LAB, LD, SNP supported temporary government might change electoral law in their favour before calling an election? Like lowering voter age or (much less likely) changing from FPTP to something that neutralises the vote-splitting problem that LD and Lab have right now?
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It is certainly a very odd argument that it wouldn't be OK for a LibDem majority government to revoke Article 50 having put that in their manifesto, but that it is OK for a Boris government with a majority of -43 to crash us out with No Deal having not advocated that in any election.1
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Ref Corbyn caretaker. I think he only goes for it if they promise to support him for a few months. Hes not going to become the shortest serving PM in history just to extend article 50.
Spoiler- they wont0 -
Cummings is doing fine by me and Boris is going to keep himRoger said:
Cummings is heading for a fall. This much is certain. When even the Telegraph makes him look like Mephistopheles the writing is on the wall............TheScreamingEagles said:
(Memo To HYUFD. A vacancy might be opening up)0 -
Thank you, you are absolutely right and I saw something recently that had Youtube, if it was a TV station, would be the third highest watched in the UK behind BBC1 and ITV1.edmundintokyo said:
And don't forget YouTube, totally ignored by commentators and in some ways a much more powerful radicalizing medium.Martin_Kinsella said:
Actually, to correct you, I have not drawn a link others have I have merely reported it.
Facebook politics groups and twitter is full of it. All from right wingers. It's vile.
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I agree here, if Swinson gets a majority we revoke. I'd accept that even if I think it'd be a stinker.Richard_Nabavi said:It is certainly a very odd argument that it wouldn't be OK for a LibDem majority government to revoke Article 50 having put that in their manifesto, but is is OK for a Boris government with a majority of -43 to crash us out with No Deal having not advocated that in any election.
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Yes but is Cummings going to keep Boris?HYUFD said:
Cummings is doing fine by me and Boris is going to keep himRoger said:
Cummings is heading for a fall. This much is certain. When even the Telegraph makes him look like Mephistopheles the writing is on the wall............TheScreamingEagles said:
(Memo To HYUFD. A vacancy might be opening up)0 -
Who's arguing this? If it's in the manifesto then that's fine. I also think Boris's position of wanting to "get Brexit done" is also fine given the 2016 refRichard_Nabavi said:It is certainly a very odd argument that it wouldn't be OK for a LibDem majority government to revoke Article 50 having put that in their manifesto, but is is OK for a Boris government with a majority of -43 to crash us out with No Deal having not advocated that in any election.
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Agree entirely on Youtube.
I mostly watch it for history and gaming nonsense, and spend far more time watching that than actual TV.1 -
The conservative base is energised behind Boris in a way it was not behind May post extension, that is whyphiliph said:The following excerpt from an article (HuffPost) made me raise an eyebrow by 1/4 of an inch.
At a meeting of the “political” cabinet last night (held in No.10, but no civil servants allowed), Tory co-chairman Ben Elliot announced that this month had been the party’s most successful September fundraising month. Ever.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/how-money-and-messaging-could-win-johnson-his-no-surrender-election/ar-AAHTAhW?ocid=spartanntp0 -
Yeah its fair enough, cant see why it wouldn't be really.dyedwoolie said:
I agree here, if Swinson gets a majority we revoke. I'd accept that even if I think it'd be a stinker.Richard_Nabavi said:It is certainly a very odd argument that it wouldn't be OK for a LibDem majority government to revoke Article 50 having put that in their manifesto, but is is OK for a Boris government with a majority of -43 to crash us out with No Deal having not advocated that in any election.
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Cummings doing a good job of being the lightning rod/pantomime villain. Especially as hes off in a month.......0
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Dominic Cummings is due to leave soon anyway so is a convenient fall guy.Roger said:
Cummings is heading for a fall. This much is certain. When even the Telegraph makes him look like Mephistopheles the writing is on the wall............TheScreamingEagles said:
(Memo To HYUFD. A vacancy might be opening up)0 -
https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1177479707148767233dyedwoolie said:Cummings doing a good job of being the lightning rod/pantomime villain. Especially as hes off in a month.......
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No way the LDs vote for Corbyn as PM anyway as Swinson and Davey have made clearjustin124 said:
Change UK may be less opposed to such a move on a Caretaker basis - particularly when faced with the alternative of continuing with Johnson. Hopkins and Williamson would also vote for Corbyn.dyedwoolie said:
Lab plus ld (in the wholly unlikely scenario Chuka and Berger vote for someone they detest) plus plaid plus Lucas plus SNP = 305, add Bebb and Clarke 307 minus mann 306justin124 said:
Bebb and Clarke have indicated - whilst still Tory MPs - that they might vote forCorbyn. Berger and Umunna would surely be bound now by the LD Whip. Not impossible that a dozen ex-Tory MPs would abstain.dyedwoolie said:
Luciana and Chuka would never support him even if the Lds did, of the indies Austin is a definite no, Mann would vote no, change would vote no, see Gapes excoriating tweets about him, Lady Hermon is a no, Kate Hoey may abstain and Frank Field almost certainly a no. The non change ex change indies are a no except possibly Heidi Allen. The ex t8ries would at best abstain. He hasn't got the numbers other indies also likely to be nojustin124 said:
Can ChangeUK and Nick Boles be persuaded? How many of the ex-Tories who had the Whip withdrawn might support Corbyn - or abstain. Bebb and Clarke are possibilities - maybe Greening too now that she is standing down?spudgfsh said:
That's stating the obvious isn't it. The problem is Jo Swinson won't go for Jeremy Corbyn (and neither will any of the Tory independents) but Jeremy Corbyn won't go for anyone but himself. It also doesn't do much to prevent a no-deal at the end of January from a (potential) Tory majority.williamglenn said:
Tories plus DUP plus change = 303. Add in hermon, Austin, Lewis, mann, elphicke = 308. He needs active support from indies, most of whom despise him0 -
Oh no he isn't !!!!dyedwoolie said:Cummings doing a good job of being the lightning rod/pantomime villain. Especially as hes off in a month.......
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QuiteScott_P said:
https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1177479707148767233dyedwoolie said:Cummings doing a good job of being the lightning rod/pantomime villain. Especially as hes off in a month.......
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LOL...
https://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2019/09/26/cuomo-alongside-christie-says-leftists-forced-impeachment-inquiry-1212363
Just before the transcript was released, Christie — a former U.S. attorney in New Jersey — said on ABC News that it would be bad if the president had said, “listen, do me a favor, go investigate Joe Biden.” It turned out the president had, in fact, asked Zelensky to do him a favor before making his requests, according to that partial transcript.
Christie called it a “coincidence” that he had used those words, but then backed off of his suggestion that such phrasing may have justified the sort of investigation now being undertaken...0 -
Probably about as well as George W Bush did with Karl Rove before his 2004 re electionScott_P said:0 -
Careful, hes behind you!Martin_Kinsella said:
Oh no he isn't !!!!dyedwoolie said:Cummings doing a good job of being the lightning rod/pantomime villain. Especially as hes off in a month.......
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New avatar to celebrate me making it to 401
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On the latest Yougov Scottish subsample of SNP 35% SNP and 21% Tory the Scottish Tories would only lose 3 MPsStuartDickson said:
Yes HY, 40% is much worse than 10%. Much, much worse.HYUFD said:
The grim news is for the SNP on just 35% and 40% with Yougov and Comres ie below or barely above 2017 despite Brexit and BorisStuartDickson said:And fantastic news for the Liberal Democrats in Scotland: the latest ComRes split shows Jo Swinson’s team more than doubling their support, to 16%. This ought to be enough for them to re-take NE Fife and comfortably hold their 4 current seats.
SNP will be pleased too. And SLab relieved to be back in 2nd spot. albeit a very distant 2nd.
However, the party formerly known as “Ruth Davidson’s Candidates” appear to be in freefall: 5th place, on just 10% of the vote. No wonder Ruth did not want her reputation tarnished by The Clown.
HYUFD was bigging up YouGov yesterday, which had the SCon’s still above 20%, just. But none of the other pollsters are remotely as comforting for spluttering British nationalists. We await the first full-sample Scottish VI poll since Ruth’s resignation, but all indications are that it will be very grim indeed for Tories.
https://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/The-Telegraph-Tables-Snap-Poll-Sept-2019.pdf
You are a psephological genius and I worship the ground you walk on. Less is more, and crap is great, and leaderless in the wilderness is better than having an FM and a functioning government with the confidence of Her Majesty and parliament.0 -
This pic has a certain caught-in-the-act air to it, with BJ hastily pulling his breeks up.dyedwoolie said:
Careful, hes behind you!Martin_Kinsella said:
Oh no he isn't !!!!dyedwoolie said:Cummings doing a good job of being the lightning rod/pantomime villain. Especially as hes off in a month.......
https://twitter.com/M0by_Duck/status/1176253143757262848?s=200 -
..dyedwoolie said:
The chances of Change voting for Corbyn are zero. They might abstain, that's very unlikely.justin124 said:
Change UK may be less opposed to such a move on a Caretaker basis - particularly when faced with the alternative of continuing with Johnson. Hopkins and Williamson would also vote for Corbyn.dyedwoolie said:
Lab plus ld (in the wholly unlikely scenario Chuka and Berger vote for someone they detest) plus plaid plus Lucas plus SNP = 305, add Bebb and Clarke 307 minus mann 306justin124 said:
Bebb and Clarke have indicated - whilst still Tory MPs - that they might vote forCorbyn. Berger and Umunna would surely be bound now by the LD Whip. Not impossible that a dozen ex-Tory MPs would abstain.dyedwoolie said:
Luciana and Chuka would never support him even if the Lds did, of the indies Austin is a definite no, Mann would vote no, change would vote no, see Gapes excoriating tweets about him, Lady Hermon is a no, Kate Hoey may abstain and Frank Field almost certainly a no. The non change ex change indies are a no except possibly Heidi Allen. The ex t8ries would at best abstain. He hasn't got the numbers other indies also likely to be nojustin124 said:
Can ChangeUK and Nick Boles be persuaded? How many of the ex-Tories who had the Whip withdrawn might support Corbyn - or abstain. Bebb and Clarke are possibilities - maybe Greening too now that she is standing down?spudgfsh said:
That's stating the obvious isn't it. The problem is Jo Swinson won't go for Jeremy Corbyn (and neither will any of the Tory independents) but Jeremy Corbyn won't go for anyone but himself. It also doesn't do much to prevent a no-deal at the end of January from a (potential) Tory majority.williamglenn said:
Tories plus DUP plus change = 303. Add in hermon, Austin, Lewis, mann, elphicke = 308. He needs active support from indies, most of whom despise him
And tbh there's no way luciana Berger votes in favour of Corbyn. Nor chuka. They'd abstain or vote against.0 -
They were just having a special hugTheuniondivvie said:
This pic has a certain caught-in-the-act air to it, with BJ hastily pulling his breeks up.dyedwoolie said:
Careful, hes behind you!Martin_Kinsella said:
Oh no he isn't !!!!dyedwoolie said:Cummings doing a good job of being the lightning rod/pantomime villain. Especially as hes off in a month.......
https://twitter.com/M0by_Duck/status/1176253143757262848?s=200 -
Morning all.
Had to re-register due to 'Captain Buzzkill' not playing the log-in game.
Unless I was banned this morning?0 -
Testdyedwoolie said:
They were just having a special hugTheuniondivvie said:
This pic has a certain caught-in-the-act air to it, with BJ hastily pulling his breeks up.dyedwoolie said:
Careful, hes behind you!Martin_Kinsella said:
Oh no he isn't !!!!dyedwoolie said:Cummings doing a good job of being the lightning rod/pantomime villain. Especially as hes off in a month.......
https://twitter.com/M0by_Duck/status/1176253143757262848?s=20
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I would expect him to stick around for the GE assuming it all goes to 'plan'.dyedwoolie said:Cummings doing a good job of being the lightning rod/pantomime villain. Especially as hes off in a month.......
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To be pedantic, you haven't re-registered, just reverted to your previous incarnation.SunnyJim said:Morning all.
Had to re-register due to 'Captain Buzzkill' not playing the log-in game.
Unless I was banned this morning?0 -
Mr. Indyref2, congratulations on your ongoing survival
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https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1177553347798274053?s=19
We all fear the dark events of November 31
The sneaky bugger had deleted it! It was genius journalist Sam Coates referencing November 310 -
Not pedantic at all, used an old log-in.Theuniondivvie said:
To be pedantic, you haven't re-registered, just reverted to your previous incarnation.SunnyJim said:Morning all.
Had to re-register due to 'Captain Buzzkill' not playing the log-in game.
Unless I was banned this morning?
Are you a mod?
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Here you are. And antifa! And ISIS!! It's a secret ecological-Jewish-Islamic-leftist conspiracy, you see.tlg86 said:
Admittedly I don't go hunting for this stuff, but you are the first person I've seen draw a connection between Soros and Thunberg.Martin_Kinsella said:
Nor the right wing and its problems with both.Philip_Thompson said:
Leavers?Gallowgate said:
The leavers will be along soon to tell them they had it coming.williamglenn said:
As a leaver I abhor racism I don't wish to be associated with the left and the Labour parties hatred of Jews and "Soros".
Most of the venom aimed at Soros I have seen has come from right wingers. Some of the stuff around the inspirational Greta Thunberg has been appalling and it is predominantly right wingers who claim Soros is a malign global controller using Thunberg to achieve his aims when all she is, really, is a well meaning kid trying to save the planet.
Still, its all Corbyn, innit.
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/greta-thunberg-soros-isis-antifa/0 -
50.2% of 18 to 30s have now undertaken higher education
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/finally-half-of-young-people-at-university-x7jrd6j2h?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR30_FzKuZFIDvh2BBoRodtHpPvVixdpaPiXtIdWy_gn3w1TxBIub6cfpjM#Echobox=15695411220 -
Fitting words for our times.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Indyref2, congratulations on your ongoing survival
0 -
We doing subsamples now? Slippery slope, next you'll be quoting LBC phone-ins, then using the word "clearly"...HYUFD said:
On the latest Yougov Scottish subsample of SNP 35% SNP and 21% Tory the Scottish Tories would only lose 3 MPsStuartDickson said:
Yes HY, 40% is much worse than 10%. Much, much worse.HYUFD said:
The grim news is for the SNP on just 35% and 40% with Yougov and Comres ie below or barely above 2017 despite Brexit and BorisStuartDickson said:And fantastic news for the Liberal Democrats in Scotland: the latest ComRes split shows Jo Swinson’s team more than doubling their support, to 16%. This ought to be enough for them to re-take NE Fife and comfortably hold their 4 current seats.
SNP will be pleased too. And SLab relieved to be back in 2nd spot. albeit a very distant 2nd.
However, the party formerly known as “Ruth Davidson’s Candidates” appear to be in freefall: 5th place, on just 10% of the vote. No wonder Ruth did not want her reputation tarnished by The Clown.
HYUFD was bigging up YouGov yesterday, which had the SCon’s still above 20%, just. But none of the other pollsters are remotely as comforting for spluttering British nationalists. We await the first full-sample Scottish VI poll since Ruth’s resignation, but all indications are that it will be very grim indeed for Tories.
https://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/The-Telegraph-Tables-Snap-Poll-Sept-2019.pdf
You are a psephological genius and I worship the ground you walk on. Less is more, and crap is great, and leaderless in the wilderness is better than having an FM and a functioning government with the confidence of Her Majesty and parliament.
0 -
Thanks Morris, that means lot to me0
-
If Brexit delivered no, if not delivered then yesSunnyJim said:
I would expect him to stick around for the GE assuming it all goes to 'plan'.dyedwoolie said:Cummings doing a good job of being the lightning rod/pantomime villain. Especially as hes off in a month.......
0 -
Don’t get me wrong, I know you are not racist nor want to be associated with anti semitism or anything despicable like that so I apologize if I gave that impression.Philip_Thompson said:
Leavers?Gallowgate said:
The leavers will be along soon to tell them they had it coming.williamglenn said:
As a leaver I abhor racism I don't wish to be associated with the left and the Labour parties hatred of Jews and "Soros".
I was merely contrasting the talk over the last few days over violence and hatred towards those not signed up to Boris’s project and how it should be ‘expected’.0 -
We have had a general eleciton since then and the majority of votes went to parties that explicitly rejected No Deal.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Who's arguing this? If it's in the manifesto then that's fine. I also think Boris's position of wanting to "get Brexit done" is also fine given the 2016 refRichard_Nabavi said:It is certainly a very odd argument that it wouldn't be OK for a LibDem majority government to revoke Article 50 having put that in their manifesto, but is is OK for a Boris government with a majority of -43 to crash us out with No Deal having not advocated that in any election.
0 -
Hey, just being helpful, I'd hate to see you labouring under the misapprehension that re-registering means using an old log in. You might confuse Byronic.SunnyJim said:
Not pedantic at all, used an old log-in.Theuniondivvie said:
To be pedantic, you haven't re-registered, just reverted to your previous incarnation.SunnyJim said:Morning all.
Had to re-register due to 'Captain Buzzkill' not playing the log-in game.
Unless I was banned this morning?
Are you a mod?2 -
Remarkable.NickPalmer said:
Here you are. And antifa! And ISIS!! It's a secret ecological-Jewish-Islamic-leftist conspiracy, you see.tlg86 said:
Admittedly I don't go hunting for this stuff, but you are the first person I've seen draw a connection between Soros and Thunberg.Martin_Kinsella said:
Nor the right wing and its problems with both.Philip_Thompson said:
Leavers?Gallowgate said:
The leavers will be along soon to tell them they had it coming.williamglenn said:
As a leaver I abhor racism I don't wish to be associated with the left and the Labour parties hatred of Jews and "Soros".
Most of the venom aimed at Soros I have seen has come from right wingers. Some of the stuff around the inspirational Greta Thunberg has been appalling and it is predominantly right wingers who claim Soros is a malign global controller using Thunberg to achieve his aims when all she is, really, is a well meaning kid trying to save the planet.
Still, its all Corbyn, innit.
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/greta-thunberg-soros-isis-antifa/0 -
Yes. Well done on failing the "dying" part. May you continue to fail to die for some time yetJBriskinindyref2 said:Thanks Morris, that means lot to me
0 -
Or preventing an mutually beneficial agreement at the end of January negotiated in the knowledge that with a (potential) Tory majority the UK would be leaving come what may and the EU would need to give ground if it wished to avoid its worst case scenario.spudgfsh said:
That's stating the obvious isn't it. The problem is Jo Swinson won't go for Jeremy Corbyn (and neither will any of the Tory independents) but Jeremy Corbyn won't go for anyone but himself. It also doesn't do much to prevent a no-deal at the end of January from a (potential) Tory majority.
0 -
The vast majority of votes went to Con and Lab, who both wanted to leave with deal (in labour's case a labour deal). Manifestos are aspirational. Leaving no-deal on the table is a perfectly acceptable negotiating strategy. Labour are frankly all over the place.SouthamObserver said:
We have had a general eleciton since then and the majority of votes went to parties that explicitly rejected No Deal.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Who's arguing this? If it's in the manifesto then that's fine. I also think Boris's position of wanting to "get Brexit done" is also fine given the 2016 refRichard_Nabavi said:It is certainly a very odd argument that it wouldn't be OK for a LibDem majority government to revoke Article 50 having put that in their manifesto, but is is OK for a Boris government with a majority of -43 to crash us out with No Deal having not advocated that in any election.
0 -
Thanks viewcode!viewcode said:
Yes. Well done on failing the "dying" part. May you continue to fail to die for some time yetJBriskinindyref2 said:Thanks Morris, that means lot to me
0 -
The problem is that, even if it could be cobbled together, a GNU would not last long enough to do much more than get an extension.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Or preventing an mutually beneficial agreement at the end of January negotiated in the knowledge that with a (potential) Tory majority the UK would be leaving come what may and the EU would need to give ground if it wished to avoid its worst case scenario.spudgfsh said:
That's stating the obvious isn't it. The problem is Jo Swinson won't go for Jeremy Corbyn (and neither will any of the Tory independents) but Jeremy Corbyn won't go for anyone but himself. It also doesn't do much to prevent a no-deal at the end of January from a (potential) Tory majority.0 -
If it comes to it, I suspect any GNU timetable would be:
First attempt one with Corbyn as PM - the Noes have it
Then attempt one with senior Labour figure (Harman, Beckett) as PM with Tory as deputy - the Ayes have it
Corbyn would have to accept that now as he cannot afford to do anything more to alienate Remain voters.
2 -
Comres has SNP on 40% Lab 17% Con 10%HYUFD said:
On the latest Yougov Scottish subsample of SNP 35% SNP and 21% Tory the Scottish Tories would only lose 3 MPsStuartDickson said:
Yes HY, 40% is much worse than 10%. Much, much worse.HYUFD said:
The grim news is for the SNP on just 35% and 40% with Yougov and Comres ie below or barely above 2017 despite Brexit and BorisStuartDickson said:And fantastic news for the Liberal Democrats in Scotland: the latest ComRes split shows Jo Swinson’s team more than doubling their support, to 16%. This ought to be enough for them to re-take NE Fife and comfortably hold their 4 current seats.
SNP will be pleased too. And SLab relieved to be back in 2nd spot. albeit a very distant 2nd.
However, the party formerly known as “Ruth Davidson’s Candidates” appear to be in freefall: 5th place, on just 10% of the vote. No wonder Ruth did not want her reputation tarnished by The Clown.
HYUFD was bigging up YouGov yesterday, which had the SCon’s still above 20%, just. But none of the other pollsters are remotely as comforting for spluttering British nationalists. We await the first full-sample Scottish VI poll since Ruth’s resignation, but all indications are that it will be very grim indeed for Tories.
https://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/The-Telegraph-Tables-Snap-Poll-Sept-2019.pdf
You are a psephological genius and I worship the ground you walk on. Less is more, and crap is great, and leaderless in the wilderness is better than having an FM and a functioning government with the confidence of Her Majesty and parliament.0 -
Well we had a Comres Scottish subsample gleefully posted by LDs and Nats earlierviewcode said:
We doing subsamples now? Slippery slope, next you'll be quoting LBC phone-ins, then using the word "clearly"...HYUFD said:
On the latest Yougov Scottish subsample of SNP 35% SNP and 21% Tory the Scottish Tories would only lose 3 MPsStuartDickson said:
Yes HY, 40% is much worse than 10%. Much, much worse.HYUFD said:
The grim news is for the SNP on just 35% and 40% with Yougov and Comres ie below or barely above 2017 despite Brexit and BorisStuartDickson said:And fantastic news for the Liberal Democrats in Scotland: the latest ComRes split shows Jo Swinson’s team more than doubling their support, to 16%. This ought to be enough for them to re-take NE Fife and comfortably hold their 4 current seats.
SNP will be pleased too. And SLab relieved to be back in 2nd spot. albeit a very distant 2nd.
However, the party formerly known as “Ruth Davidson’s Candidates” appear to be in freefall: 5th place, on just 10% of the vote. No wonder Ruth did not want her reputation tarnished by The Clown.
HYUFD was bigging up YouGov yesterday, which had the SCon’s still above 20%, just. But none of the other pollsters are remotely as comforting for spluttering British nationalists. We await the first full-sample Scottish VI poll since Ruth’s resignation, but all indications are that it will be very grim indeed for Tories.
https://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/The-Telegraph-Tables-Snap-Poll-Sept-2019.pdf
You are a psephological genius and I worship the ground you walk on. Less is more, and crap is great, and leaderless in the wilderness is better than having an FM and a functioning government with the confidence of Her Majesty and parliament.0 -
Conservative manifesto = leave with an orderly deal. They may be aspirational (as indeed the referendum was "advisory") but it allows conclusions to be drawn. They wanted a deal to leave; they did not want no deal to leave is what we can say with certainty. Otherwise they would have put it or words to that effect in the manifesto.JBriskinindyref2 said:
The vast majority of votes went to Con and Lab, who both wanted to leave with deal (in labour's case a labour deal). Manifestos are aspirational. Leaving no-deal on the table is a perfectly acceptable negotiating strategy. Labour are frankly all over the place.SouthamObserver said:
We have had a general eleciton since then and the majority of votes went to parties that explicitly rejected No Deal.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Who's arguing this? If it's in the manifesto then that's fine. I also think Boris's position of wanting to "get Brexit done" is also fine given the 2016 refRichard_Nabavi said:It is certainly a very odd argument that it wouldn't be OK for a LibDem majority government to revoke Article 50 having put that in their manifesto, but is is OK for a Boris government with a majority of -43 to crash us out with No Deal having not advocated that in any election.
0 -
I was looking at the 2017 Conservative Party manifesto this morning and this is the key passage:SouthamObserver said:
We have had a general eleciton since then and the majority of votes went to parties that explicitly rejected No Deal.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Who's arguing this? If it's in the manifesto then that's fine. I also think Boris's position of wanting to "get Brexit done" is also fine given the 2016 refRichard_Nabavi said:It is certainly a very odd argument that it wouldn't be OK for a LibDem majority government to revoke Article 50 having put that in their manifesto, but is is OK for a Boris government with a majority of -43 to crash us out with No Deal having not advocated that in any election.
The negotiations will undoubtedly be tough, and there will be give and take on both sides, but we continue to believe that no deal is better than a bad deal for the UK. But we will enter the negotiations in a spirit of sincere cooperation and committed to getting the best deal for Britain.
Therefore if Boris brings back a deal that he considers ‘the best deal for Britain’ then as per the above there is no mandate for ‘no deal’, even if it is rejected.
It says no deal is better than a bad deal but it does not say that no deal is better than any deal.0 -
Yougov has SNP 35% Con 21% LD 14% Lab 13%justin124 said:
Comres has SNP on 40% Lab 17% Con 10%HYUFD said:
On the latest Yougov Scottish subsample of SNP 35% SNP and 21% Tory the Scottish Tories would only lose 3 MPsStuartDickson said:
Yes HY, 40% is much worse than 10%. Much, much worse.HYUFD said:
The grim news is for the SNP on just 35% and 40% with Yougov and Comres ie below or barely above 2017 despite Brexit and BorisStuartDickson said:And fantastic news for the Liberal Democrats in Scotland: the latest ComRes split shows Jo Swinson’s team more than doubling their support, to 16%. This ought to be enough for them to re-take NE Fife and comfortably hold their 4 current seats.
SNP will be pleased too. And SLab relieved to be back in 2nd spot. albeit a very distant 2nd.
However, the party formerly known as “Ruth Davidson’s Candidates” appear to be in freefall: 5th place, on just 10% of the vote. No wonder Ruth did not want her reputation tarnished by The Clown.
HYUFD was bigging up YouGov yesterday, which had the SCon’s still above 20%, just. But none of the other pollsters are remotely as comforting for spluttering British nationalists. We await the first full-sample Scottish VI poll since Ruth’s resignation, but all indications are that it will be very grim indeed for Tories.
https://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/The-Telegraph-Tables-Snap-Poll-Sept-2019.pdf
You are a psephological genius and I worship the ground you walk on. Less is more, and crap is great, and leaderless in the wilderness is better than having an FM and a functioning government with the confidence of Her Majesty and parliament.0 -
I think one of the former Tories may take up a deputy post.SouthamObserver said:If it comes to it, I suspect any GNU timetable would be:
First attempt one with Corbyn as PM - the Noes have it
Then attempt one with senior Labour figure (Harman, Beckett) as PM with Tory as deputy - the Ayes have it
Corbyn would have to accept that now as he cannot afford to do anything more to alienate Remain voters.
I'd be very surprised if a current one did.0 -
It's bad form on PB, save for the various incarnations of @SeanT, to refer to your weekly sexual activities.JBriskinindyref2 said:New avatar to celebrate me making it to 40
2 -
The vast majority of people (especially labour voters) didn't vote for labour because of brexit. in fact labours policy at the last election was fence sitting which people could read what they wanted to in it. it won't be the same this timeJBriskinindyref2 said:
The vast majority of votes went to Con and Lab, who both wanted to leave with deal (in labour's case a labour deal). Manifestos are aspirational. Leaving no-deal on the table is a perfectly acceptable negotiating strategy. Labour are frankly all over the place.SouthamObserver said:
We have had a general eleciton since then and the majority of votes went to parties that explicitly rejected No Deal.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Who's arguing this? If it's in the manifesto then that's fine. I also think Boris's position of wanting to "get Brexit done" is also fine given the 2016 refRichard_Nabavi said:It is certainly a very odd argument that it wouldn't be OK for a LibDem majority government to revoke Article 50 having put that in their manifesto, but is is OK for a Boris government with a majority of -43 to crash us out with No Deal having not advocated that in any election.
0 -
Amber Rudd is skin stretched tight over ambition.noneoftheabove said:
Wtf was she thinking joining his cabinet?williamglenn said:0 -
The attitude of ChangeUK will depend on events. At what point is Johnson seen as the greater evil? I suspect that for Anna Soubry that moment has already arrived.dyedwoolie said:
The chances of Change voting for Corbyn are zero. They might abstain, that's very unlikely.justin124 said:
Change UK may be less opposed to such a move on a Caretaker basis - particularly when faced with the alternative of continuing with Johnson. Hopkins and Williamson would also vote for Corbyn.dyedwoolie said:
Lab plus ld (in the wholly unlikely scenario Chuka and Berger vote for someone they detest) plus plaid plus Lucas plus SNP = 305, add Bebb and Clarke 307 minus mann 306justin124 said:
Bebb and Clarke have indicated - whilst still Tory MPs - that they might vote forCorbyn. Berger and Umunna would surely be bound now by the LD Whip. Not impossible that a dozen ex-Tory MPs would abstain.dyedwoolie said:
Luciana and Chuka would never support him even if the Lds did, of the indies Austin is a definite no, Mann would vote no, change would vote no, see Gapes excoriating tweets about him, Lady Hermon is a no, Kate Hoey may abstain and Frank Field almost certainly a no. The non change ex change indies are a no except possibly Heidi Allen. The ex t8ries would at best abstain. He hasn't got the numbers other indies also likely to be nojustin124 said:
Can ChangeUK and Nick Boles be persuaded? How many of the ex-Tories who had the Whip withdrawn might support Corbyn - or abstain. Bebb and Clarke are possibilities - maybe Greening too now that she is standing down?spudgfsh said:
That's stating the obvious isn't it. The problem is Jo Swinson won't go for Jeremy Corbyn (and neither will any of the Tory independents) but Jeremy Corbyn won't go for anyone but himself. It also doesn't do much to prevent a no-deal at the end of January from a (potential) Tory majority.williamglenn said:
Tories plus DUP plus change = 303. Add in hermon, Austin, Lewis, mann, elphicke = 308. He needs active support from indies, most of whom despise him
And tbh there's no way luciana Berger votes in favour of Corbyn. Nor chuka. They'd abstain or vote against.0 -
For my PB research I actually looked up the labour manifesto - I shalln't be doing the same for the Con one ins this case.TOPPING said:
Conservative manifesto = leave with an orderly deal. They may be aspirational (as indeed the referendum was "advisory") but it allows conclusions to be drawn. They wanted a deal to leave; they did not want no deal to leave is what we can say with certainty. Otherwise they would have put it or words to that effect in the manifesto.JBriskinindyref2 said:
The vast majority of votes went to Con and Lab, who both wanted to leave with deal (in labour's case a labour deal). Manifestos are aspirational. Leaving no-deal on the table is a perfectly acceptable negotiating strategy. Labour are frankly all over the place.SouthamObserver said:
We have had a general eleciton since then and the majority of votes went to parties that explicitly rejected No Deal.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Who's arguing this? If it's in the manifesto then that's fine. I also think Boris's position of wanting to "get Brexit done" is also fine given the 2016 refRichard_Nabavi said:It is certainly a very odd argument that it wouldn't be OK for a LibDem majority government to revoke Article 50 having put that in their manifesto, but is is OK for a Boris government with a majority of -43 to crash us out with No Deal having not advocated that in any election.
0 -
No chance a current one would, not if they want to remain in the Tory party. There wouldn't be a deputy, a caretakers job would be to extend and dissolve for a GE, literally a two day job then babysit till election day. Leaves a problem of who exactly are the cabinet in this scenario?SunnyJim said:
I think one of the former Tories may take up a deputy post.SouthamObserver said:If it comes to it, I suspect any GNU timetable would be:
First attempt one with Corbyn as PM - the Noes have it
Then attempt one with senior Labour figure (Harman, Beckett) as PM with Tory as deputy - the Ayes have it
Corbyn would have to accept that now as he cannot afford to do anything more to alienate Remain voters.
I'd be very surprised if a current one did.0 -
Which is why there is little point in relying on subsamples - for Scotland or anywhere else.HYUFD said:
Yougov has SNP 35% Con 21% LD 14% Lab 13%justin124 said:
Comres has SNP on 40% Lab 17% Con 10%HYUFD said:
On the latest Yougov Scottish subsample of SNP 35% SNP and 21% Tory the Scottish Tories would only lose 3 MPsStuartDickson said:
Yes HY, 40% is much worse than 10%. Much, much worse.HYUFD said:
The grim news is for the SNP on just 35% and 40% with Yougov and Comres ie below or barely above 2017 despite Brexit and BorisStuartDickson said:And fantastic news for the Liberal Democrats in Scotland: the latest ComRes split shows Jo Swinson’s team more than doubling their support, to 16%. This ought to be enough for them to re-take NE Fife and comfortably hold their 4 current seats.
SNP will be pleased too. And SLab relieved to be back in 2nd spot. albeit a very distant 2nd.
However, the party formerly known as “Ruth Davidson’s Candidates” appear to be in freefall: 5th place, on just 10% of the vote. No wonder Ruth did not want her reputation tarnished by The Clown.
HYUFD was bigging up YouGov yesterday, which had the SCon’s still above 20%, just. But none of the other pollsters are remotely as comforting for spluttering British nationalists. We await the first full-sample Scottish VI poll since Ruth’s resignation, but all indications are that it will be very grim indeed for Tories.
https://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/The-Telegraph-Tables-Snap-Poll-Sept-2019.pdf
You are a psephological genius and I worship the ground you walk on. Less is more, and crap is great, and leaderless in the wilderness is better than having an FM and a functioning government with the confidence of Her Majesty and parliament.0 -
And how is "we continue to believe that no deal is better than a bad deal" (Conservative 2017 manifesto) explicitly rejecting no deal?JBriskinindyref2 said:
The vast majority of votes went to Con and Lab, who both wanted to leave with deal (in labour's case a labour deal). Manifestos are aspirational. Leaving no-deal on the table is a perfectly acceptable negotiating strategy. Labour are frankly all over the place.SouthamObserver said:
We have had a general eleciton since then and the majority of votes went to parties that explicitly rejected No Deal.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Who's arguing this? If it's in the manifesto then that's fine. I also think Boris's position of wanting to "get Brexit done" is also fine given the 2016 refRichard_Nabavi said:It is certainly a very odd argument that it wouldn't be OK for a LibDem majority government to revoke Article 50 having put that in their manifesto, but is is OK for a Boris government with a majority of -43 to crash us out with No Deal having not advocated that in any election.
0 -
Why is a GE a problem? Remainers should be content to have kicked the can further still down the road. Leavers reconciled to Brexit being blocked by this parliament should be content that the GE will test whether MPs can continue doing so.spudgfsh said:
The problem is that, even if it could be cobbled together, a GNU would not last long enough to do much more than get an extension.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Or preventing an mutually beneficial agreement at the end of January negotiated in the knowledge that with a (potential) Tory majority the UK would be leaving come what may and the EU would need to give ground if it wished to avoid its worst case scenario.spudgfsh said:
That's stating the obvious isn't it. The problem is Jo Swinson won't go for Jeremy Corbyn (and neither will any of the Tory independents) but Jeremy Corbyn won't go for anyone but himself. It also doesn't do much to prevent a no-deal at the end of January from a (potential) Tory majority.0 -
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Is BJ skin stretched tight over blubber and ambition?MarqueeMark said:
Amber Rudd is skin stretched tight over ambition.noneoftheabove said:
Wtf was she thinking joining his cabinet?williamglenn said:0 -
It really wouldn't matter.dyedwoolie said:
No chance a current one would, not if they want to remain in the Tory party. There wouldn't be a deputy, a caretakers job would be to extend and dissolve for a GE, literally a two day job then babysit till election day. Leaves a problem of who exactly are the cabinet in this scenario?
They could put all the remainer MPs names in a hat and draw out the winners.
I don't know what the financial benefits of being a member of cabinet are, or indeed if there is a qualifying period, but I am sure all those selected will be keen to turn down any gain from such a false appointment.
Especially with a GE to immediately follow.0 -
Ambitious for what? She’s just quit the cabinet and the party. Hardly career enhancementMarqueeMark said:
Amber Rudd is skin stretched tight over ambition.noneoftheabove said:
Wtf was she thinking joining his cabinet?williamglenn said:0 -
New thread0
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We have also had a one hour learned discussion on R4 chaired by D Aaronivitch in which Lord Norton, David Allen Green and many more seemed to consider overall that the referendum didn't conform to parliamentary norms. In these MPs debate and set out proposed constitutional changes in detail, it gets formal approval and voters go to the polls.SouthamObserver said:
We have had a general eleciton since then and the majority of votes went to parties that explicitly rejected No Deal.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Who's arguing this? If it's in the manifesto then that's fine. I also think Boris's position of wanting to "get Brexit done" is also fine given the 2016 refRichard_Nabavi said:It is certainly a very odd argument that it wouldn't be OK for a LibDem majority government to revoke Article 50 having put that in their manifesto, but is is OK for a Boris government with a majority of -43 to crash us out with No Deal having not advocated that in any election.
Perhaps they do it in a referendum, although if figures like Attlee, Heath and Thatcher thought that these were abominations then I'm inclined to be cautious about ever having them again. I'd rather have PR and parliamentary decisions.
Anyway, if so, a referendum would have been on the precise legal terms of leaving, not on the vague principle.
This programme answered some of my concern about the validity of the 2016 referendum. Added to the electoral fraud, it has to be nullified, because it conflicts with so much else. Unfortunately, I doubt that even MPs listen to such debate much.1 -
"Dominic Cummings says news 'almost all bull****' when asked about Brexit language row"
https://news.sky.com/video/cummings-calls-news-as-almost-all-bull-when-pressed-about-his-masterplan-118204810 -
I agree. But It doesn’t really mean anything either. It’s just vacuous buzz wording.TrèsDifficile said:
And how is "we continue to believe that no deal is better than a bad deal" (Conservative 2017 manifesto) explicitly rejecting no deal?JBriskinindyref2 said:
The vast majority of votes went to Con and Lab, who both wanted to leave with deal (in labour's case a labour deal). Manifestos are aspirational. Leaving no-deal on the table is a perfectly acceptable negotiating strategy. Labour are frankly all over the place.SouthamObserver said:
We have had a general eleciton since then and the majority of votes went to parties that explicitly rejected No Deal.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Who's arguing this? If it's in the manifesto then that's fine. I also think Boris's position of wanting to "get Brexit done" is also fine given the 2016 refRichard_Nabavi said:It is certainly a very odd argument that it wouldn't be OK for a LibDem majority government to revoke Article 50 having put that in their manifesto, but is is OK for a Boris government with a majority of -43 to crash us out with No Deal having not advocated that in any election.
0 -
Boris Johnson is flab cascading loosely over incompetence.MarqueeMark said:
Amber Rudd is skin stretched tight over ambition.noneoftheabove said:
Wtf was she thinking joining his cabinet?williamglenn said:2 -
Soubry has made clear there are no circumstances whatsoever she will ever make Corbyn PM, Beckett or Harman maybe but not Corbynjustin124 said:
The attitude of ChangeUK will depend on events. At what point is Johnson seen as the greater evil? I suspect that for Anna Soubry that moment has already arrived.dyedwoolie said:
The chances of Change voting for Corbyn are zero. They might abstain, that's very unlikely.justin124 said:
Change UK may be less opposed to such a move on a Caretaker basis - particularly when faced with the alternative of continuing with Johnson. Hopkins and Williamson would also vote for Corbyn.dyedwoolie said:
Lab plus ld (in the wholly unlikely scenario Chuka and Berger vote for someone they detest) plus plaid plus Lucas plus SNP = 305, add Bebb and Clarke 307 minus mann 306justin124 said:
Bebb and Clarke have indicated - whilst still Tory MPs - that they might vote forCorbyn. Berger and Umunna would surely be bound now by the LD Whip. Not impossible that a dozen ex-Tory MPs would abstain.dyedwoolie said:
Luciana and Chuka would never support him even if the Lds did, of the indies Austin is a definite no, Mann would vote no, change would vote no, see Gapes excoriating tweets about him, Lady Hermon is a no, Kate Hoey may abstain and Frank Field almost certainly a no. The non change ex change indies are a no except possibly Heidi Allen. The ex t8ries would at best abstain. He hasn't got the numbers other indies also likely to be nojustin124 said:
Can ChangeUK and Nick Boles be persuaded? How many of the ex-Tories who had the Whip withdrawn might support Corbyn - or abstain. Bebb and Clarke are possibilities - maybe Greening too now that she is standing down?spudgfsh said:
That's stating the obvious isn't it. The problem is Jo Swinson won't go for Jeremy Corbyn (and neither will any of the Tory independents) but Jeremy Corbyn won't go for anyone but himself. It also doesn't do much to prevent a no-deal at the end of January from a (potential) Tory majority.williamglenn said:
Tories plus DUP plus change = 303. Add in hermon, Austin, Lewis, mann, elphicke = 308. He needs active support from indies, most of whom despise him
And tbh there's no way luciana Berger votes in favour of Corbyn. Nor chuka. They'd abstain or vote against.0 -
We were talking about why she joined it in the first place.DougSeal said:
Ambitious for what? She’s just quit the cabinet and the party. Hardly career enhancementMarqueeMark said:
Amber Rudd is skin stretched tight over ambition.noneoftheabove said:
Wtf was she thinking joining his cabinet?williamglenn said:
There was never a good outcome for her doing so. Unless the plan had been to flounce at a moment of high drama - for maximum impact. But Boris canning 21 MPs made that rather redunadant....0 -
To expect mps who quit labour over anti semitism to vote for Corbyn to be PM is frankly ludicrous. Theyll vote for someone else of course, but not Corbyn. It is entirely fanciful to see Corbyn in number 10 before a GE. He does not have the numbers. Period. The LDs will not support him but they would someone else. The SNP arent enough.justin124 said:
The attitude of ChangeUK will depend on events. At what point is Johnson seen as the greater evil? I suspect that for Anna Soubry that moment has already arrived.dyedwoolie said:
The chances of Change voting for Corbyn are zero. They might abstain, that's very unlikely.justin124 said:
Change UK may be less opposed to such a move on a Caretaker basis - particularly when faced with the alternative of continuing with Johnson. Hopkins and Williamson would also vote for Corbyn.dyedwoolie said:
Lab plus ld (in the wholly unlikely scenario Chuka and Berger vote for someone they detest) plus plaid plus Lucas plus SNP = 305, add Bebb and Clarke 307 minus mann 306justin124 said:
Bebb and Clarke have indicated - whilst still Tory MPs - that they might vote forCorbyn. Berger and Umunna would surely be bound now by the LD Whip. Not impossible that a dozen ex-Tory MPs would abstain.dyedwoolie said:
Luciana and Chuka would never support him even if the Lds did, of the indies Austin is a definite no, Mann would vote no, change would vote no, see Gapes excoriating tweets about him, Lady Hermon is a no, Kate Hoey may abstain and Frank Field almost certainly a no. The non change ex change indies are a no except possibly Heidi Allen. The ex t8ries would at best abstain. He hasn't got the numbers other indies also likely to be nojustin124 said:
Can ChangeUK and Nick Boles be persuaded? How many of the ex-Tories who had the Whip withdrawn might support Corbyn - or abstain. Bebb and Clarke are possibilities - maybe Greening too now that she is standing down?spudgfsh said:
That's stating the obvious isn't it. The problem is Jo Swinson won't go for Jeremy Corbyn (and neither will any of the Tory independents) but Jeremy Corbyn won't go for anyone but himself. It also doesn't do much to prevent a no-deal at the end of January from a (potential) Tory majority.williamglenn said:
Tories plus DUP plus change = 303. Add in hermon, Austin, Lewis, mann, elphicke = 308. He needs active support from indies, most of whom despise him
And tbh there's no way luciana Berger votes in favour of Corbyn. Nor chuka. They'd abstain or vote against.1 -
Wulfrun_Phil said:
...and set up a new referendum. Which will probably be at least as valuable as an extension. And even a reasonable prospect of one will make getting an extension easierspudgfsh said:
The problem is that, even if it could be cobbled together, a GNU would not last long enough to do much more than get an extension.0 -
dyedwoolie said:
They forgot the hande hoch optionAlastairMeeks said:
I think you underestimate how little Corbyn cares about alienating Remain voters. The last three years show multiple examples of thisSouthamObserver said:If it comes to it, I suspect any GNU timetable would be:
First attempt one with Corbyn as PM - the Noes have it
Then attempt one with senior Labour figure (Harman, Beckett) as PM with Tory as deputy - the Ayes have it
Corbyn would have to accept that now as he cannot afford to do anything more to alienate Remain voters.0 -
But most of those MPs quit Labour on account of his failure to be sufficiently anti-Brexit at a time he was not clearly advocating a second Referendum. Luciana Berger was an exception to that re-anti-Semitism.Labour's relationship with the SNP has in the past been very bitter - but such differences are being set aside in seeking a common goal.dyedwoolie said:
To expect mps who quit labour over anti semitism to vote for Corbyn to be PM is frankly ludicrous. Theyll vote for someone else of course, but not Corbyn. It is entirely fanciful to see Corbyn in number 10 before a GE. He does not have the numbers. Period. The LDs will not support him but they would someone else. The SNP arent enough.justin124 said:
The attitude of ChangeUK will depend on events. At what point is Johnson seen as the greater evil? I suspect that for Anna Soubry that moment has already arrived.dyedwoolie said:justin124 said:
Change UK may be less opposed to such a move on a Caretaker basis - particularly when faced with the alternative of continuing with Johnson. Hopkins and Williamson would also vote for Corbyn.dyedwoolie said:
Lab plus ld (in the wholly unlikely scenario Chuka and Berger vote for someone they detest) plus plaid plus Lucas plus SNP = 305, add Bebb and Clarke 307 minus mann 306justin124 said:
Bebb and Clarke have indicated - whilst still Tory MPs - that they might vote forCorbyn. Berger and Umunna would surely be bound now by the LD Whip. Not impossible that a dozen ex-Tory MPs would abstain.dyedwoolie said:
Luciana and Chuka would never support him even if the Lds did, of the indies Austin is a definite no, Mann would vote no, change would vote no, see Gapes excoriating tweets about him, Lady Hermon is a no, Kate Hoey may abstain and Frank Field almost certainly a no. The non change ex change indies are a no except possibly Heidi Allen. The ex t8ries would at best abstain. He hasn't got the numbers other indies also likely to be nojustin124 said:
Can ChangeUK and Nick Boles be persuaded? How many of the ex-Tories who had the Whip withdrawn might support Corbyn - or abstain. Bebb and Clarke are possibilities - maybe Greening too now that she is standing down?spudgfsh said:
Tories plus DUP plus change = 303. Add in hermon, Austin, Lewis, mann, elphicke = 308. He needs active support from indies, most of whom despise him0 -
I note the SNP, or at least Sturgeon seems to be practically the only MP on the "remain" side more interested in actually preventing 'No Deal' than pathetic political game playing most seem to be indulging in.
Good for her.1 -
It’s not impossible she mistakenly believed she might influence things.MarqueeMark said:
We were talking about why she joined it in the first place.DougSeal said:
Ambitious for what? She’s just quit the cabinet and the party. Hardly career enhancementMarqueeMark said:
Amber Rudd is skin stretched tight over ambition.noneoftheabove said:
Wtf was she thinking joining his cabinet?williamglenn said:
There was never a good outcome for her doing so. Unless the plan had been to flounce at a moment of high drama - for maximum impact. But Boris canning 21 MPs made that rather redunadant....
Who knows, perhaps Boris’s brother felt the same ?0
