The attitude of ChangeUK will depend on events. At what point is Johnson seen as the greater evil? I suspect that for Anna Soubry that moment has already arrived.
To expect mps who quit labour over anti semitism to vote for Corbyn to be PM is frankly ludicrous. Theyll vote for someone else of course, but not Corbyn. It is entirely fanciful to see Corbyn in number 10 before a GE. He does not have the numbers. Period. The LDs will not support him but they would someone else. The SNP arent enough.
You may be right, but attitudes evolve. Sources say that the private discussions between all the non-Tory/DUP leaders (including Soubry) have been "surprisingly cordial and unproblematic". I used to be pretty anti-LD as I found them quite unscrupulous in Broxtowe elections, but since I've been working closely with them in Surrey I've modified my views. After October 17, everyone will be staring down the barrel of the No Deal gun, and it's brave to be dogmatic about who will work with whom then.
The basic lesson of the current situation: assume nothing.
The attitude of ChangeUK will depend on events. At what point is Johnson seen as the greater evil? I suspect that for Anna Soubry that moment has already arrived.
To expect mps who quit labour over anti semitism to vote for Corbyn to be PM is frankly ludicrous. Theyll vote for someone else of course, but not Corbyn. It is entirely fanciful to see Corbyn in number 10 before a GE. He does not have the numbers. Period. The LDs will not support him but they would someone else. The SNP arent enough.
You may be right, but attitudes evolve. Sources say that the private discussions between all the non-Tory/DUP leaders (including Soubry) have been "surprisingly cordial and unproblematic". I used to be pretty anti-LD as I found them quite unscrupulous in Broxtowe elections, but since I've been working closely with them in Surrey I've modified my views. After October 17, everyone will be staring down the barrel of the No Deal gun, and it's brave to be dogmatic about who will work with whom then.
The basic lesson of the current situation: assume nothing.
Yes. The whole Brexit debacle has seen the weight of punditry proved wrong time and time again.
* The UK would not vote to leave the EU * Article 50 would not be triggered without a plan for withdrawal * The 2017 election would be a Tory walkover * May would agree a deal with the EU which would get through Parliament with the support of Labour leavers * Corbyn was secretly plotting to bring about a no deal Brexit * Parliament could not stop Johnson pushing through no deal
All of which proved to be completely wrong.
I think many of today's assumptions - not least that there will be a pre-Christmas general election - are likely to be proved just as wrong.
Comments
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/27/voters-so-promiscuous-the-pollsters-working-to-predict-next-election
The basic lesson of the current situation: assume nothing.
* The UK would not vote to leave the EU
* Article 50 would not be triggered without a plan for withdrawal
* The 2017 election would be a Tory walkover
* May would agree a deal with the EU which would get through Parliament with the support of Labour leavers
* Corbyn was secretly plotting to bring about a no deal Brexit
* Parliament could not stop Johnson pushing through no deal
All of which proved to be completely wrong.
I think many of today's assumptions - not least that there will be a pre-Christmas general election - are likely to be proved just as wrong.