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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » An overnight local election result that highlights how difficu

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » An overnight local election result that highlights how difficult it will be to call GE2019

Icknield (Luton) result:

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • PendduPenddu Posts: 265
    I need to get out more...
  • PendduPenddu Posts: 265
    edited September 2019
    A lot has been said about Cummings 'gaming' the different opions around Brexit, but this still relies on winning votes in Parliament or the Courts - something Boris has so far failed at spectacularly.

    The end-game is near - whatever that might be...
  • PendduPenddu Posts: 265
    edited September 2019
    . Duplicate

  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,788
    None of this matters, because - when the general election comes - the 17.4 million good decent sensible patriotic Leave voters (i.e. the people who believe in freedom and self-government, and who understand how democracy works) will rise up in a united frenzy of patriotic fervour and will vote en masse for the Conservative Party under our great historic liberator, Boris Johnson.

    The Brexit Party supporters will do their own electoral pact in the sanctity of the polling booth (regardless of whether there is a Brexit Party candidate standing in their constituency), will avoid splitting the vote, and will also vote Conservative, knowing that the Conservative Party is the only party which can be trusted to deliver Brexit.

    The tiny minority of 16.1 million weird undemocratic anti-democratic Remain voters, Remoaners, Remoaniacs, saboteurs, anti-patriots, and people who want to live under the tyrannical yoke of an undemocratic unaccountable wasteful corrupt foreign bureaucracy of dictators, meddlers, regulators, and impertinent interferers, and who are willing to extract billions of pounds a year from ordinary normal decent hard-working UK taxpayers in order to pay the membership fee, will split their votes in several directions and lose seats accordingly.

    The ordinary centre-left weirdoes who do not want their whole existence to be taxed, nationalised, collectivised and regulated by a frenzied gang of extreme-left Maoists under Corbyn, but who are happy for their children to be indoctrinated into yellowism and forced to eat tofu in a politically-correct gulag, will defect from Labour and will vote for the Illiberal Anti-Democrats.

    The anti-everything weirdoes of the left who want the whole of civilisation to be abolished will vote for the Green Party or the SNP; and the tiny minority of extreme lefties who want their entire lives to be regimented and controlled in a network of worker-peasant collective slave-camps, will vote for the Labour Party.

    The net result is that in the strongest Remain areas, Labour will lose lots of votes and seats to the (il)Lib (anti)Dems, and in the suburbs and swing marginals, a split vote will result in the election of Conservative MPs.

    The result will be something like
    Con 600 Lab 10 LD 10 SNP 10 Northern Ireland 18 Green 1 PC 1
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,985
    JohnLoony said:

    None of this matters, because - when the general election comes - the 17.4 million good decent sensible patriotic Leave voters (i.e. the people who believe in freedom and self-government, and who understand how democracy works) will rise up in a united frenzy of patriotic fervour and will vote en masse for the Conservative Party under our great historic liberator, Boris Johnson.

    The Brexit Party supporters will do their own electoral pact in the sanctity of the polling booth (regardless of whether there is a Brexit Party candidate standing in their constituency), will avoid splitting the vote, and will also vote Conservative, knowing that the Conservative Party is the only party which can be trusted to deliver Brexit.

    The tiny minority of 16.1 million weird undemocratic anti-democratic Remain voters, Remoaners, Remoaniacs, saboteurs, anti-patriots, and people who want to live under the tyrannical yoke of an undemocratic unaccountable wasteful corrupt foreign bureaucracy of dictators, meddlers, regulators, and impertinent interferers, and who are willing to extract billions of pounds a year from ordinary normal decent hard-working UK taxpayers in order to pay the membership fee, will split their votes in several directions and lose seats accordingly.

    The ordinary centre-left weirdoes who do not want their whole existence to be taxed, nationalised, collectivised and regulated by a frenzied gang of extreme-left Maoists under Corbyn, but who are happy for their children to be indoctrinated into yellowism and forced to eat tofu in a politically-correct gulag, will defect from Labour and will vote for the Illiberal Anti-Democrats.

    The anti-everything weirdoes of the left who want the whole of civilisation to be abolished will vote for the Green Party or the SNP; and the tiny minority of extreme lefties who want their entire lives to be regimented and controlled in a network of worker-peasant collective slave-camps, will vote for the Labour Party.

    The net result is that in the strongest Remain areas, Labour will lose lots of votes and seats to the (il)Lib (anti)Dems, and in the suburbs and swing marginals, a split vote will result in the election of Conservative MPs.

    The result will be something like
    Con 600 Lab 10 LD 10 SNP 10 Northern Ireland 18 Green 1 PC 1

    Bercow gone? I’ll take it. :p
  • And fantastic news for the Liberal Democrats in Scotland: the latest ComRes split shows Jo Swinson’s team more than doubling their support, to 16%. This ought to be enough for them to re-take NE Fife and comfortably hold their 4 current seats.

    SNP will be pleased too. And SLab relieved to be back in 2nd spot. albeit a very distant 2nd.

    However, the party formerly known as “Ruth Davidson’s Candidates” appear to be in freefall: 5th place, on just 10% of the vote. No wonder Ruth did not want her reputation tarnished by The Clown.

    HYUFD was bigging up YouGov yesterday, which had the SCon’s still above 20%, just. But none of the other pollsters are remotely as comforting for spluttering British nationalists. We await the first full-sample Scottish VI poll since Ruth’s resignation, but all indications are that it will be very grim indeed for Tories.

    https://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/The-Telegraph-Tables-Snap-Poll-Sept-2019.pdf
  • PendduPenddu Posts: 265
    So gaming it....possible outcomes are:
    1. No Deal - initially 0% (but see below)
    2. Deal agreed with EU - 30%..but needs parliamentary approval, so
    2a - deal agreed by parliament - 50% - so 15% overall
    2b - deal rejected by Parliament - 50% - what next?
    3. Boris submits extension request - 10%
    4. Boris resigns or VONCd- 20% - replaced by caretaker PM or GONU - extension request submitted
    5. Cummings has another trick...40%. ...the known unknown...

    In case of 5 the lawyers and judges will be on speed dial -

    What happens in 2b?


  • PendduPenddu Posts: 265
    Dominic Cummings & Boris Johnson...

    DomBo ?
  • Something for the Conservative posters to think about:

    https://twitter.com/stephentall/status/1177350553799667712?s=21

    FWIW I am not sure what I would do in the final forced choice, though I see Stephen Tall’s logic in his follow-up tweet.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,286
    Johnson is a mere piker in the scofflaw stakes.

    Trump is seeking to overturn US v. Nixon....
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/09/trump-imperial-presidency-investigation-immunity-nixon.html
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,753
    The period since the Scottish referendum in 2014 has been probably the most confused and confusing in British political history. We've seen:

    - the eclipse of Scottish Labour
    = the ascendary of Scottish Nationalists
    - the collapse of the Liberal Democrats
    - an avowed Marxist taking over Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition
    - two indecisive general elections including a partial Conservative revival in Scotland
    - a new party (Change UK/TIG - remember them) being set up and basically falling apart
    - a Government depriving itself of a majority
    - maybe the rebirth of the Liberal Democrats
    - the discreditation of the Speaker in the eyes of many MPs

    I'm trying to think of a stranger period in our history and I can only think of:
    - the years of crisis between the loss of the American War of Independence and the establishment of the Pitt the Younger ministry
    - the 1840s and the party convulsions following the repeal of the Corn Laws
    - the Conservatives' self-destruction then partial revival before the First World War
    - the Liberals' annihilation between the Wars

    but nothing really comes close. Going further back, there was a very strange political period between the Nine Years' War and the War of Spanish Succession,
    but we do not have the data to know what went on then.

    It's mostly traceable to the fact that our majoritarian system doesn't really work if one Party doesn't have a clear majority in Parliament. It is arguable that giving the winning party a bonus of 100 party list MPs to get it there could give us the functioning government we used to have. And/or repealing the FTPA, which requires governments to limp on without the confidence of Parliament. But without that, we'll just have to get used to living with Governments in office but not in power.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042
    Penddu said:

    Dominic Cummings & Boris Johnson...

    DomBo ?

    They'd probably take that over BJ-Cum......
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,033
    edited September 2019

    And fantastic news for the Liberal Democrats in Scotland: the latest ComRes split shows Jo Swinson’s team more than doubling their support, to 16%. This ought to be enough for them to re-take NE Fife and comfortably hold their 4 current seats.

    Stu and his Scottish subsamples LOL.

    Total numbers of Scots sampled to give these results: total = 101.

    Total numbers expressing an intention to Vote Lib Dem after exclusion of DK etc ... er, 12 afaics - increased from what would around 6.

    That'll be reliable :-) What's the error margin, Stu?

    https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1177450647915909121
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,453
    JohnLoony said:

    None of this matters, because - when the general election comes - the 17.4 million good decent sensible patriotic Leave voters (i.e. the people who believe in freedom and self-government, and who understand how democracy works) will rise up in a united frenzy of patriotic fervour and will vote en masse for the Conservative Party under our great historic liberator, Boris Johnson.

    The Brexit Party supporters will do their own electoral pact in the sanctity of the polling booth (regardless of whether there is a Brexit Party candidate standing in their constituency), will avoid splitting the vote, and will also vote Conservative, knowing that the Conservative Party is the only party which can be trusted to deliver Brexit.

    The tiny minority of 16.1 million weird undemocratic anti-democratic Remain voters, Remoaners, Remoaniacs, saboteurs, anti-patriots, and people who want to live under the tyrannical yoke of an undemocratic unaccountable wasteful corrupt foreign bureaucracy of dictators, meddlers, regulators, and impertinent interferers, and who are willing to extract billions of pounds a year from ordinary normal decent hard-working UK taxpayers in order to pay the membership fee, will split their votes in several directions and lose seats accordingly.

    The ordinary centre-left weirdoes who do not want their whole existence to be taxed, nationalised, collectivised and regulated by a frenzied gang of extreme-left Maoists under Corbyn, but who are happy for their children to be indoctrinated into yellowism and forced to eat tofu in a politically-correct gulag, will defect from Labour and will vote for the Illiberal Anti-Democrats.

    The anti-everything weirdoes of the left who want the whole of civilisation to be abolished will vote for the Green Party or the SNP; and the tiny minority of extreme lefties who want their entire lives to be regimented and controlled in a network of worker-peasant collective slave-camps, will vote for the Labour Party.

    The net result is that in the strongest Remain areas, Labour will lose lots of votes and seats to the (il)Lib (anti)Dems, and in the suburbs and swing marginals, a split vote will result in the election of Conservative MPs.

    The result will be something like
    Con 600 Lab 10 LD 10 SNP 10 Northern Ireland 18 Green 1 PC 1

    Bravo
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042
    Penddu said:

    So gaming it....possible outcomes are:
    1. No Deal - initially 0% (but see below)
    2. Deal agreed with EU - 30%..but needs parliamentary approval, so
    2a - deal agreed by parliament - 50% - so 15% overall
    2b - deal rejected by Parliament - 50% - what next?
    3. Boris submits extension request - 10%
    4. Boris resigns or VONCd- 20% - replaced by caretaker PM or GONU - extension request submitted
    5. Cummings has another trick...40%. ...the known unknown...

    In case of 5 the lawyers and judges will be on speed dial -

    What happens in 2b?


    The interesting one is where 5 is a thing that can still deliver No Deal. The EU know that 5 is a thing that can deliver No Deal. They would rather a Deal. So they give Boris an improved Deal. Boris then goes to Step 2 knowing that 2a is the only realistic option.

    Which is where we would have been without the fuckwittery of the Benn Act. An Act so stupidly treacherous as to blast away at the legs of the UK negotiators with high-calibre weaponry. In the most important commercial negotiation this country has ever undertaken.

    And so it deserves to be subject to 5 being a thing, however much it will cause Remain heads to explode.....

    But is 5 a thing?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,033
    Penddu said:

    I need to get out more...

    This morning it is gym at 6:30 or PB and ordering bathroom fittings.

    Gym lost.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,620

    Penddu said:

    So gaming it....possible outcomes are:
    1. No Deal - initially 0% (but see below)
    2. Deal agreed with EU - 30%..but needs parliamentary approval, so
    2a - deal agreed by parliament - 50% - so 15% overall
    2b - deal rejected by Parliament - 50% - what next?
    3. Boris submits extension request - 10%
    4. Boris resigns or VONCd- 20% - replaced by caretaker PM or GONU - extension request submitted
    5. Cummings has another trick...40%. ...the known unknown...

    In case of 5 the lawyers and judges will be on speed dial -

    What happens in 2b?


    The interesting one is where 5 is a thing that can still deliver No Deal. The EU know that 5 is a thing that can deliver No Deal. They would rather a Deal. So they give Boris an improved Deal. Boris then goes to Step 2 knowing that 2a is the only realistic option.

    Which is where we would have been without the fuckwittery of the Benn Act. An Act so stupidly treacherous as to blast away at the legs of the UK negotiators with high-calibre weaponry. In the most important commercial negotiation this country has ever undertaken.

    And so it deserves to be subject to 5 being a thing, however much it will cause Remain heads to explode.....

    But is 5 a thing?
    Except the Benn Act has not stopped BoZo making proposals for a Deal, albeit on the back of a fag packet. Until then there were no proposals at all.

    If there is a revised Deal, then it will be because of the selfless heros of the Benn Act. The only surrender is of the No Dealers...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042
    JohnLoony said:

    None of this matters, because - when the general election comes - the 17.4 million good decent sensible patriotic Leave voters (i.e. the people who believe in freedom and self-government, and who understand how democracy works) will rise up in a united frenzy of patriotic fervour and will vote en masse for the Conservative Party under our great historic liberator, Boris Johnson.

    The Brexit Party supporters will do their own electoral pact in the sanctity of the polling booth (regardless of whether there is a Brexit Party candidate standing in their constituency), will avoid splitting the vote, and will also vote Conservative, knowing that the Conservative Party is the only party which can be trusted to deliver Brexit.

    The tiny minority of 16.1 million weird undemocratic anti-democratic Remain voters, Remoaners, Remoaniacs, saboteurs, anti-patriots, and people who want to live under the tyrannical yoke of an undemocratic unaccountable wasteful corrupt foreign bureaucracy of dictators, meddlers, regulators, and impertinent interferers, and who are willing to extract billions of pounds a year from ordinary normal decent hard-working UK taxpayers in order to pay the membership fee, will split their votes in several directions and lose seats accordingly.

    The ordinary centre-left weirdoes who do not want their whole existence to be taxed, nationalised, collectivised and regulated by a frenzied gang of extreme-left Maoists under Corbyn, but who are happy for their children to be indoctrinated into yellowism and forced to eat tofu in a politically-correct gulag, will defect from Labour and will vote for the Illiberal Anti-Democrats.

    The anti-everything weirdoes of the left who want the whole of civilisation to be abolished will vote for the Green Party or the SNP; and the tiny minority of extreme lefties who want their entire lives to be regimented and controlled in a network of worker-peasant collective slave-camps, will vote for the Labour Party.

    The net result is that in the strongest Remain areas, Labour will lose lots of votes and seats to the (il)Lib (anti)Dems, and in the suburbs and swing marginals, a split vote will result in the election of Conservative MPs.

    The result will be something like
    Con 600 Lab 10 LD 10 SNP 10 Northern Ireland 18 Green 1 PC 1

    Still annoying that the Not-very-liberal Certainly-not-Democrats get rewarded with 10 seats. Can you tweak your model a bit?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,620
    In other news, NZ is having massive turnouts for the #climatestrike This is a great picture of The Beehive.

    https://twitter.com/tweetwithkieran/status/1177394961139978241?s=19

    I think that they put it back a week because of school exams.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    edited September 2019
    This was mentioned on the last thread:
    http://www.twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1177327061817528321 What wasn't mentioned is that at this moment there are major roadworks on the M6 between Stoke and Stafford that are causing major delays.

    Also, due to some useless pillock not knowing where Oldbury Viaduct is there are major delays around junction 8 due to the totally unnecessary closure of half the M5. That's less likely to be a problem though as I imagine most of them will take the M6 Toll - on expenses.

    Frankly, the only way to get from London to Manchester quickly is by train, but until HS2 is built the WCML is so congested it's hardly reliable either.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    ydoethur said:

    This was mentioned on the last thread:
    http://www.twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1177327061817528321 What wasn't mentioned is that at this moment there are major roadworks on the M6 between Stoke and Stafford that are causing major delays.

    Also, due to some useless pillock not knowing where Oldbury Viaduct is there are major delays around junction 8 due to the totally unnecessary closure of half the M5. That's less likely to be a problem though as I imagine most of them will take the M6 Toll - on expenses.

    Frankly, the only way to get from London to Manchester quickly is by train, but until HS2 is built the WCML is so congested it's hardly reliable either.

    There are two ways of looking at this:

    1. The Tories might as well go ahead with their conference because they're powerless to prevent votes in the Commons going against them, or
    2. The Tories should've cancelled the conference and blamed the decision on the unreasonable behaviour of the Opposition. Party conferences are arguably a waste of time and resources, it might have earned them some marginal degree of sympathy amongst part of the electorate, and the potential damage to the Mancunian economy hardly matters to them from an electoral standpoint because Manchester is a Labour one-party state anyway

    On balance, they probably should've gone for option 2.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819

    Penddu said:

    So gaming it....possible outcomes are:
    1. No Deal - initially 0% (but see below)
    2. Deal agreed with EU - 30%..but needs parliamentary approval, so
    2a - deal agreed by parliament - 50% - so 15% overall
    2b - deal rejected by Parliament - 50% - what next?
    3. Boris submits extension request - 10%
    4. Boris resigns or VONCd- 20% - replaced by caretaker PM or GONU - extension request submitted
    5. Cummings has another trick...40%. ...the known unknown...

    In case of 5 the lawyers and judges will be on speed dial -

    What happens in 2b?


    The interesting one is where 5 is a thing that can still deliver No Deal. The EU know that 5 is a thing that can deliver No Deal. They would rather a Deal. So they give Boris an improved Deal. Boris then goes to Step 2 knowing that 2a is the only realistic option.

    Which is where we would have been without the fuckwittery of the Benn Act. An Act so stupidly treacherous as to blast away at the legs of the UK negotiators with high-calibre weaponry. In the most important commercial negotiation this country has ever undertaken.

    And so it deserves to be subject to 5 being a thing, however much it will cause Remain heads to explode.....

    But is 5 a thing?
    Even if 5 is a thing does the approach escape Justicability and would it pass the SC new "don't try it on" approach.

    And I do suspect Cummings has or is looking for a 5 - but like Wile E. Coyote it won't last 30 seconds of thought.

    As for 2b - Boris can't no deal so will need to ask for an extension or avoid asking for an extension.
  • ydoethur said:

    This was mentioned on the last thread:
    http://www.twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1177327061817528321 What wasn't mentioned is that at this moment there are major roadworks on the M6 between Stoke and Stafford that are causing major delays.

    Also, due to some useless pillock not knowing where Oldbury Viaduct is there are major delays around junction 8 due to the totally unnecessary closure of half the M5. That's less likely to be a problem though as I imagine most of them will take the M6 Toll - on expenses.

    Frankly, the only way to get from London to Manchester quickly is by train, but until HS2 is built the WCML is so congested it's hardly reliable either.

    There are two ways of looking at this:

    1. The Tories might as well go ahead with their conference because they're powerless to prevent votes in the Commons going against them, or
    2. The Tories should've cancelled the conference and blamed the decision on the unreasonable behaviour of the Opposition. Party conferences are arguably a waste of time and resources, it might have earned them some marginal degree of sympathy amongst part of the electorate, and the potential damage to the Mancunian economy hardly matters to them from an electoral standpoint because Manchester is a Labour one-party state anyway

    On balance, they probably should've gone for option 2.
    The public don’t give a stuff about party conferences.
  • ydoethur said:

    This was mentioned on the last thread:
    http://www.twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1177327061817528321 What wasn't mentioned is that at this moment there are major roadworks on the M6 between Stoke and Stafford that are causing major delays.

    Also, due to some useless pillock not knowing where Oldbury Viaduct is

    It’s above the Old Main Line.

    I think it’s still marginally quicker via the M6 than the BCN, Staffs & Worcs and Trent & Mersey, but I wonder if the Shropshire Union route might shade it. Unless you hit congestion at Audlem Locks, of course.
  • MPs are focussing solely on their own positions at the moment and not caring about the bigger picture, where they might need to sacrifice a bit of what they’d like to have if they had their own way in the national interest of ending this feud.

    It’s the tragedy of the Commons.
  • Foxy said:

    In other news, NZ is having massive turnouts for the #climatestrike This is a great picture of The Beehive.

    https://twitter.com/tweetwithkieran/status/1177394961139978241?s=19

    I think that they put it back a week because of school exams.

    Again, New Zealand has a sensible target to become carbon neutral by 2050. Just as we do.

    These protests need to focussed on the USA, Brazil, Indonesia, China and India.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042
    eek said:

    Penddu said:

    So gaming it....possible outcomes are:
    1. No Deal - initially 0% (but see below)
    2. Deal agreed with EU - 30%..but needs parliamentary approval, so
    2a - deal agreed by parliament - 50% - so 15% overall
    2b - deal rejected by Parliament - 50% - what next?
    3. Boris submits extension request - 10%
    4. Boris resigns or VONCd- 20% - replaced by caretaker PM or GONU - extension request submitted
    5. Cummings has another trick...40%. ...the known unknown...

    In case of 5 the lawyers and judges will be on speed dial -

    What happens in 2b?


    The interesting one is where 5 is a thing that can still deliver No Deal. The EU know that 5 is a thing that can deliver No Deal. They would rather a Deal. So they give Boris an improved Deal. Boris then goes to Step 2 knowing that 2a is the only realistic option.

    Which is where we would have been without the fuckwittery of the Benn Act. An Act so stupidly treacherous as to blast away at the legs of the UK negotiators with high-calibre weaponry. In the most important commercial negotiation this country has ever undertaken.

    And so it deserves to be subject to 5 being a thing, however much it will cause Remain heads to explode.....

    But is 5 a thing?
    Even if 5 is a thing does the approach escape Justicability and would it pass the SC new "don't try it on" approach.

    And I do suspect Cummings has or is looking for a 5 - but like Wile E. Coyote it won't last 30 seconds of thought.

    As for 2b - Boris can't no deal so will need to ask for an extension or avoid asking for an extension.
    5 being a thing obviously has to escape the grasp of the power-crazy judiciary. If it doesn't, then it isn't a thing ab initio.
  • On thread, council by-elections are fine but rarely point to anything.

    When the General Election comes, all those who voted Tory in 2015 and/or 2017 will have to decide which matters more to them

    Remain in the EU and almost certainly have a Jeremy Corbyn government which will tax them out of being able to pay their mortgages and go on their 3 foreign holidays to other EU countries each year. In addition they will see their pension funds go up in smoke (unless they work in the public sector) as John MacDonnell confiscates the pension fund investments in utility and rail companies in exchange for meaningless, worthless Government bonds as anyone who ever owned "War stocks" knows!

    or

    Leave the EU by voting Tory and have the inconvenience of having to stand for a wee while at customs when going on their 3 foreign holidays a year plus maybe not getting their favourite fruit out of natural season in the UK for a while.

    Vote Tory = get Tory

    Vote Labour = get Labour
    Vote Liberal = get Labour
    Vote SNP/PC/Brexit/Green = get Labour

  • eekeek Posts: 21,819

    Something for the Conservative posters to think about:

    https://twitter.com/stephentall/status/1177350553799667712?s=21

    FWIW I am not sure what I would do in the final forced choice, though I see Stephen Tall’s logic in his follow-up tweet.

    In my case it's simple - in a Labour held seat unless the Labour vote completely collapses and I see evidence beyond a Lib Dem bar chart as a Remain voter vote Labour. I'm happy to do so as Labour cannot win a majority so the insaner elements of the manifesto won't get anywhere.

    Elsewhere especially in a Tory held seat - I suspect the best bet will be to vote Lib Dem unless it's a close Tory / Labour marginal.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819
    edited September 2019

    On thread, council by-elections are fine but rarely point to anything.

    When the General Election comes, all those who voted Tory in 2015 and/or 2017 will have to decide which matters more to them

    Remain in the EU and almost certainly have a Jeremy Corbyn government which will tax them out of being able to pay their mortgages and go on their 3 foreign holidays to other EU countries each year. In addition they will see their pension funds go up in smoke (unless they work in the public sector) as John MacDonnell confiscates the pension fund investments in utility and rail companies in exchange for meaningless, worthless Government bonds as anyone who ever owned "War stocks" knows!

    or

    Leave the EU by voting Tory and have the inconvenience of having to stand for a wee while at customs when going on their 3 foreign holidays a year plus maybe not getting their favourite fruit out of natural season in the UK for a while.

    Vote Tory = get Tory

    Vote Labour = get Labour
    Vote Liberal = get Labour
    Vote SNP/PC/Brexit/Green = get Labour

    The point of the polling is that even as you are told Labour and Tory votes have collapsed you don't know how the collapse has played out in any seat so accurately guessing the end result without constituency level polling is impossible.

    I suspect You Gov will do a constituency level poll at some point but it's not easy for even them to be correct.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,363
    Genius Cummings has seen all his recent cunning plans fail spectacularly and now appears to be intent on pissing off the body needed to pass the deal he regards as easy to get. He certainly appears to be operating on a level very different to everyone else.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,620

    ydoethur said:

    This was mentioned on the last thread:
    http://www.twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1177327061817528321 What wasn't mentioned is that at this moment there are major roadworks on the M6 between Stoke and Stafford that are causing major delays.

    Also, due to some useless pillock not knowing where Oldbury Viaduct is there are major delays around junction 8 due to the totally unnecessary closure of half the M5. That's less likely to be a problem though as I imagine most of them will take the M6 Toll - on expenses.

    Frankly, the only way to get from London to Manchester quickly is by train, but until HS2 is built the WCML is so congested it's hardly reliable either.

    There are two ways of looking at this:

    1. The Tories might as well go ahead with their conference because they're powerless to prevent votes in the Commons going against them, or
    2. The Tories should've cancelled the conference and blamed the decision on the unreasonable behaviour of the Opposition. Party conferences are arguably a waste of time and resources, it might have earned them some marginal degree of sympathy amongst part of the electorate, and the potential damage to the Mancunian economy hardly matters to them from an electoral standpoint because Manchester is a Labour one-party state anyway

    On balance, they probably should've gone for option 2.
    The public don’t give a stuff about party conferences.

    On thread, council by-elections are fine but rarely point to anything.

    When the General Election comes, all those who voted Tory in 2015 and/or 2017 will have to decide which matters more to them

    Remain in the EU and almost certainly have a Jeremy Corbyn government which will tax them out of being able to pay their mortgages and go on their 3 foreign holidays to other EU countries each year. In addition they will see their pension funds go up in smoke (unless they work in the public sector) as John MacDonnell confiscates the pension fund investments in utility and rail companies in exchange for meaningless, worthless Government bonds as anyone who ever owned "War stocks" knows!

    or

    Leave the EU by voting Tory and have the inconvenience of having to stand for a wee while at customs when going on their 3 foreign holidays a year plus maybe not getting their favourite fruit out of natural season in the UK for a while.

    Vote Tory = get Tory

    Vote Labour = get Labour
    Vote Liberal = get Labour
    Vote SNP/PC/Brexit/Green = get Labour

    Nah, vote Lib Dem, get Lib Dem.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,179

    ydoethur said:

    This was mentioned on the last thread:
    http://www.twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1177327061817528321 What wasn't mentioned is that at this moment there are major roadworks on the M6 between Stoke and Stafford that are causing major delays.

    Also, due to some useless pillock not knowing where Oldbury Viaduct is

    It’s above the Old Main Line.

    I think it’s still marginally quicker via the M6 than the BCN, Staffs & Worcs and Trent & Mersey, but I wonder if the Shropshire Union route might shade it. Unless you hit congestion at Audlem Locks, of course.
    Like the canal thought; the M6 can be a pig when there are no roadworks. I've taken to going up the M1 to the A50 and across to Stoke. Seems to be better.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    eek said:

    On thread, council by-elections are fine but rarely point to anything.

    When the General Election comes, all those who voted Tory in 2015 and/or 2017 will have to decide which matters more to them

    Remain in the EU and almost certainly have a Jeremy Corbyn government which will tax them out of being able to pay their mortgages and go on their 3 foreign holidays to other EU countries each year. In addition they will see their pension funds go up in smoke (unless they work in the public sector) as John MacDonnell confiscates the pension fund investments in utility and rail companies in exchange for meaningless, worthless Government bonds as anyone who ever owned "War stocks" knows!

    or

    Leave the EU by voting Tory and have the inconvenience of having to stand for a wee while at customs when going on their 3 foreign holidays a year plus maybe not getting their favourite fruit out of natural season in the UK for a while.

    Vote Tory = get Tory

    Vote Labour = get Labour
    Vote Liberal = get Labour
    Vote SNP/PC/Brexit/Green = get Labour

    Labour cannot win a majority and at best will have a C&S deal with the Lib Dems and SNP which will remove most contentious items from Labour's policy.

    Basically it's vote Tory - pray Operation Yellowhammer is worse than reality (in the sectors I know personally it underplays possible issues).
    or vote Labour / Lib Dem and not leave under No Deal.
    Except that those of us who follow the issues may believe that Labour can't win a majority, but frankly things are so messy and unpredictable at the moment that it's impossible to be sure; and, in any event, the vast bulk of the population doesn't spend its time analysing the breakdown of the electorate or potential swing patterns in key marginal constituencies.

    Fear of Corbyn and his acolytes is, barring a wholly unexpected coup in the Labour Party, bound to be a factor in people's voting intentions come the next election, and probably a more significant one than it was last time. Labour got away with very little scrutiny of its manifesto in 2017 because the prospect of it actually getting into Government was written off, due to the stupid opinion polls and the even more stupid journalists who gave them too much credence. This is unlikely to be the case next time around.
  • Jonathan said:

    MPs are focussing solely on their own positions at the moment and not caring about the bigger picture, where they might need to sacrifice a bit of what they’d like to have if they had their own way in the national interest of ending this feud.

    It’s the tragedy of the Commons.

    It seems fashionable to blame MPs on all sides at the moment. But that is falling into the trap of the people vs. Parliament narrative pushed by number 10.

    In most dispassionate terms, this cabinet could have had Brexit in March if they had voted for it. They then engaged in a game of Brinkmanship threatening a no deal exit, but didn’t inspire confidence that they wanted a deal. It looked like they actually wanted no deal and were stopped. They tried to bend the law on Parliament and were found to break it. Now they are deepening divisions by doubling down on inflammatory rhetoric. Having once ruled out an election, they no say one is essential, largely because they sacked 20 of their own MPs.


    Quite. The problem is the executive not the legislature.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,767

    Jonathan said:

    MPs are focussing solely on their own positions at the moment and not caring about the bigger picture, where they might need to sacrifice a bit of what they’d like to have if they had their own way in the national interest of ending this feud.

    It’s the tragedy of the Commons.

    It seems fashionable to blame MPs on all sides at the moment. But that is falling into the trap of the people vs. Parliament narrative pushed by number 10.

    In most dispassionate terms, this cabinet could have had Brexit in March if they had voted for it. They then engaged in a game of Brinkmanship threatening a no deal exit, but didn’t inspire confidence that they wanted a deal. It looked like they actually wanted no deal and were stopped. They tried to bend the law on Parliament and were found to break it. Now they are deepening divisions by doubling down on inflammatory rhetoric. Having once ruled out an election, they no say one is essential, largely because they sacked 20 of their own MPs.


    Quite. The problem is the executive not the legislature.
    And changing the executive is in the gift of the legislature.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,620

    eek said:

    On thread, council by-elections are fine but rarely point to anything.

    When the General Election comes, all those who voted Tory in 2015 and/or 2017 will have to decide which matters more to them

    Remain in the EU and almost certainly have a Jeremy Corbyn government which will tax them out of being able to pay their mortgages and go on their 3 foreign holidays to other EU countries each year. In addition they will see their pension funds go up in smoke (unless they work in the public sector) as John MacDonnell confiscates the pension fund investments in utility and rail companies in exchange for meaningless, worthless Government bonds as anyone who ever owned "War stocks" knows!

    or

    Leave the EU by voting Tory and have the inconvenience of having to stand for a wee while at customs when going on their 3 foreign holidays a year plus maybe not getting their favourite fruit out of natural season in the UK for a while.

    Vote Tory = get Tory

    Vote Labour = get Labour
    Vote Liberal = get Labour
    Vote SNP/PC/Brexit/Green = get Labour

    Labour cannot win a majority and at best will have a C&S deal with the Lib Dems and SNP which will remove most contentious items from Labour's policy.

    Basically it's vote Tory - pray Operation Yellowhammer is worse than reality (in the sectors I know personally it underplays possible issues).
    or vote Labour / Lib Dem and not leave under No Deal.
    Except that those of us who follow the issues may believe that Labour can't win a majority, but frankly things are so messy and unpredictable at the moment that it's impossible to be sure; and, in any event, the vast bulk of the population doesn't spend its time analysing the breakdown of the electorate or potential swing patterns in key marginal constituencies.

    Fear of Corbyn and his acolytes is, barring a wholly unexpected coup in the Labour Party, bound to be a factor in people's voting intentions come the next election, and probably a more significant one than it was last time. Labour got away with very little scrutiny of its manifesto in 2017 because the prospect of it actually getting into Government was written off, due to the stupid opinion polls and the even more stupid journalists who gave them too much credence. This is unlikely to be the case next time around.
    I don't think so. There will be big swings in all sorts of seats when the election comes (I expect spring), but very much dependent on what happens in October.

    Tories will be wiped out if No Deal happens, merely humbled if May's Deal passes, and probably survive an extension IMO.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    edited September 2019

    Except that those of us who follow the issues may believe that Labour can't win a majority, but frankly things are so messy and unpredictable at the moment that it's impossible to be sure; and, in any event, the vast bulk of the population doesn't spend its time analysing the breakdown of the electorate or potential swing patterns in key marginal constituencies.

    Fear of Corbyn and his acolytes is, barring a wholly unexpected coup in the Labour Party, bound to be a factor in people's voting intentions come the next election, and probably a more significant one than it was last time. Labour got away with very little scrutiny of its manifesto in 2017 because the prospect of it actually getting into Government was written off, due to the stupid opinion polls and the even more stupid journalists who gave them too much credence. This is unlikely to be the case next time around.

    Also, the manifesto is a lot more open about its intentions this time. For example, last time their VAT policies would have closed most private schools, but as this was not explicitly stated most people (including most on this board) just thought it would be rich people paying more tax, not hundreds of thousands of extra children suddenly swamping the state sector.

    Now, Labour have openly committed to the abolition and expropriation of private schools and transferring everything except probably the money to a state sector already on the brink of collapse.

    You don't have to be a foam-flecked nutter like Cummings to have very strong reservations about that on a number of levels. But in practice, the policies are identical.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,604
    edited September 2019
    tlg86 said:

    Jonathan said:

    MPs are focussing solely on their own positions at the moment and not caring about the bigger picture, where they might need to sacrifice a bit of what they’d like to have if they had their own way in the national interest of ending this feud.

    It’s the tragedy of the Commons.

    It seems fashionable to blame MPs on all sides at the moment. But that is falling into the trap of the people vs. Parliament narrative pushed by number 10.

    In most dispassionate terms, this cabinet could have had Brexit in March if they had voted for it. They then engaged in a game of Brinkmanship threatening a no deal exit, but didn’t inspire confidence that they wanted a deal. It looked like they actually wanted no deal and were stopped. They tried to bend the law on Parliament and were found to break it. Now they are deepening divisions by doubling down on inflammatory rhetoric. Having once ruled out an election, they no say one is essential, largely because they sacked 20 of their own MPs.


    Quite. The problem is the executive not the legislature.
    And changing the executive is in the gift of the legislature.
    But that is hard to do in a hung parliament, but doubly hard to do when the incumbent intends to use the process of changing administration to sneak through policy for which they have no majority.

    The opposition will get there, it it will be close.
  • eek said:

    On thread, council by-elections are fine but rarely point to anything.

    When the General Election comes, all those who voted Tory in 2015 and/or 2017 will have to decide which matters more to them

    Remain in the EU and almost certainly have a Jeremy Corbyn government which will tax them out of being able to pay their mortgages and go on their 3 foreign holidays to other EU countries each year. In addition they will see their pension funds go up in smoke (unless they work in the public sector) as John MacDonnell confiscates the pension fund investments in utility and rail companies in exchange for meaningless, worthless Government bonds as anyone who ever owned "War stocks" knows!

    or

    Leave the EU by voting Tory and have the inconvenience of having to stand for a wee while at customs when going on their 3 foreign holidays a year plus maybe not getting their favourite fruit out of natural season in the UK for a while.

    Vote Tory = get Tory

    Vote Labour = get Labour
    Vote Liberal = get Labour
    Vote SNP/PC/Brexit/Green = get Labour

    Labour cannot win a majority and at best will have a C&S deal with the Lib Dems and SNP which will remove most contentious items from Labour's policy.

    Basically it's vote Tory - pray Operation Yellowhammer is worse than reality (in the sectors I know personally it underplays possible issues).
    or vote Labour / Lib Dem and not leave under No Deal.
    Except that those of us who follow the issues may believe that Labour can't win a majority, but frankly things are so messy and unpredictable at the moment that it's impossible to be sure; and, in any event, the vast bulk of the population doesn't spend its time analysing the breakdown of the electorate or potential swing patterns in key marginal constituencies.

    Fear of Corbyn and his acolytes is, barring a wholly unexpected coup in the Labour Party, bound to be a factor in people's voting intentions come the next election, and probably a more significant one than it was last time. Labour got away with very little scrutiny of its manifesto in 2017 because the prospect of it actually getting into Government was written off, due to the stupid opinion polls and the even more stupid journalists who gave them too much credence. This is unlikely to be the case next time around.
    It’s apparent that the Conservatives don’t realise just how much they too are despised. Take a look at that Stephen Tall tweet. He is far from alone and there are a lot more like me who would find the choice like one between anthrax and Ebola.

    “We hate you and despise you, now vote for us you traitors and quislings” is unlikely to be a great recruiting slogan.
  • tlg86 said:

    Jonathan said:

    MPs are focussing solely on their own positions at the moment and not caring about the bigger picture, where they might need to sacrifice a bit of what they’d like to have if they had their own way in the national interest of ending this feud.

    It’s the tragedy of the Commons.

    It seems fashionable to blame MPs on all sides at the moment. But that is falling into the trap of the people vs. Parliament narrative pushed by number 10.

    In most dispassionate terms, this cabinet could have had Brexit in March if they had voted for it. They then engaged in a game of Brinkmanship threatening a no deal exit, but didn’t inspire confidence that they wanted a deal. It looked like they actually wanted no deal and were stopped. They tried to bend the law on Parliament and were found to break it. Now they are deepening divisions by doubling down on inflammatory rhetoric. Having once ruled out an election, they no say one is essential, largely because they sacked 20 of their own MPs.


    Quite. The problem is the executive not the legislature.
    And changing the executive is in the gift of the legislature.
    All in good time. The current one is being used up, in preparation for being discarded at the right time. That time is coming.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    ydoethur said:

    This was mentioned on the last thread:
    http://www.twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1177327061817528321 What wasn't mentioned is that at this moment there are major roadworks on the M6 between Stoke and Stafford that are causing major delays.

    Also, due to some useless pillock not knowing where Oldbury Viaduct is there are major delays around junction 8 due to the totally unnecessary closure of half the M5. That's less likely to be a problem though as I imagine most of them will take the M6 Toll - on expenses.

    Frankly, the only way to get from London to Manchester quickly is by train, but until HS2 is built the WCML is so congested it's hardly reliable either.

    there is the train...
  • ydoethur said:

    Except that those of us who follow the issues may believe that Labour can't win a majority, but frankly things are so messy and unpredictable at the moment that it's impossible to be sure; and, in any event, the vast bulk of the population doesn't spend its time analysing the breakdown of the electorate or potential swing patterns in key marginal constituencies.

    Fear of Corbyn and his acolytes is, barring a wholly unexpected coup in the Labour Party, bound to be a factor in people's voting intentions come the next election, and probably a more significant one than it was last time. Labour got away with very little scrutiny of its manifesto in 2017 because the prospect of it actually getting into Government was written off, due to the stupid opinion polls and the even more stupid journalists who gave them too much credence. This is unlikely to be the case next time around.

    Also, the manifesto is a lot more open about its intentions this time. For example, last time their VAT policies would have closed most private schools, but as this was not explicitly stated most people (including most on this board) just thought it would be rich people paying more tax, not hundreds of thousands of extra children suddenly swamping the state sector.

    Now, Labour have openly committed to the abolition and expropriation of private schools and transferring everything except probably the money to a state sector already on the brink of collapse.

    You don't have to be a foam-flecked nutter like Cummings to have very strong reservations about that on a number of levels. But in practice, the policies are identical.
    The policies by conference were quite bonkers, as much a danger as no deal would be. They will surely be rewritten substantially and toned down in the manifesto - of course the conference ones would still leave them open to easy attack lines from opponents.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Smithson, aye, I'd suspect lots of weird things like that, plus BP letting in other candidates by taking votes from those currently holding seats.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,179

    eek said:

    On thread, council by-elections are fine but rarely point to anything.

    When the General Election comes, all those who voted Tory in 2015 and/or 2017 will have to decide which matters more to them

    Remain in the EU and almost certainly have a Jeremy Corbyn government which will tax them out of being able to pay their mortgages and go on their 3 foreign holidays to other EU countries each year. In addition they will see their pension funds go up in smoke (unless they work in the public sector) as John MacDonnell confiscates the pension fund investments in utility and rail companies in exchange for meaningless, worthless Government bonds as anyone who ever owned "War stocks" knows!

    or

    Leave the EU by voting Tory and have the inconvenience of having to stand for a wee while at customs when going on their 3 foreign holidays a year plus maybe not getting their favourite fruit out of natural season in the UK for a while.

    Vote Tory = get Tory

    Vote Labour = get Labour
    Vote Liberal = get Labour
    Vote SNP/PC/Brexit/Green = get Labour

    Labour cannot win a majority and at best will have a C&S deal with the Lib Dems and SNP which will remove most contentious items from Labour's policy.

    Basically it's vote Tory - pray Operation Yellowhammer is worse than reality (in the sectors I know personally it underplays possible issues).
    or vote Labour / Lib Dem and not leave under No Deal.
    Fear of Corbyn and his acolytes is, barring a wholly unexpected coup in the Labour Party, bound to be a factor in people's voting intentions come the next election, and probably a more significant one than it was last time. Labour got away with very little scrutiny of its manifesto in 2017 because the prospect of it actually getting into Government was written off, due to the stupid opinion polls and the even more stupid journalists who gave them too much credence. This is unlikely to be the case next time around.
    It’s apparent that the Conservatives don’t realise just how much they too are despised. Take a look at that Stephen Tall tweet. He is far from alone and there are a lot more like me who would find the choice like one between anthrax and Ebola.

    “We hate you and despise you, now vote for us you traitors and quislings” is unlikely to be a great recruiting slogan.
    There was, IIRC, some good evidence that some at least of the 17.4m didn't normally vote, for whatever reason, and consequently may not do so again. Which would suggest that among the 70% or so of the normally voting population there could be a Remain, or Remain party voting, majority.

    If we haven't left, of course, some Facebook posters (FWTW) assert that 'they will never vote again'!
  • Meanwhile I didn’t see this mentioned yesterday:

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1177248861708017664?s=21

    Sadly it’s pretty clear this is no longer a decent country.
  • ydoethur said:

    This was mentioned on the last thread:
    http://www.twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1177327061817528321 What wasn't mentioned is that at this moment there are major roadworks on the M6 between Stoke and Stafford that are causing major delays.

    Also, due to some useless pillock not knowing where Oldbury Viaduct is there are major delays around junction 8 due to the totally unnecessary closure of half the M5. That's less likely to be a problem though as I imagine most of them will take the M6 Toll - on expenses.

    Frankly, the only way to get from London to Manchester quickly is by train, but until HS2 is built the WCML is so congested it's hardly reliable either.

    there is the train...
    Id assumed they would just hire a helicopter - is that really over budget?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,604

    Meanwhile I didn’t see this mentioned yesterday:

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1177248861708017664?s=21

    Sadly it’s pretty clear this is no longer a decent country.

    We’re decent. This simply the result of deliberate strategy in number 10 to polarise the debate to win a majority. Trumpian politics.
  • Jonathan said:

    MPs are focussing solely on their own positions at the moment and not caring about the bigger picture, where they might need to sacrifice a bit of what they’d like to have if they had their own way in the national interest of ending this feud.

    It’s the tragedy of the Commons.

    It seems fashionable to blame MPs on all sides at the moment. But that is falling into the trap of the people vs. Parliament narrative pushed by number 10.

    In most dispassionate terms, this cabinet could have had Brexit in March if they had voted for it. They then engaged in a game of Brinkmanship threatening a no deal exit, but didn’t inspire confidence that they wanted a deal. It looked like they actually wanted no deal and were stopped. They tried to bend the law on Parliament and were found to break it. Now they are deepening divisions by doubling down on inflammatory rhetoric. Having once ruled out an election, they no say one is essential, largely because they sacked 20 of their own MPs.


    Jonathan said:

    MPs are focussing solely on their own positions at the moment and not caring about the bigger picture, where they might need to sacrifice a bit of what they’d like to have if they had their own way in the national interest of ending this feud.

    It’s the tragedy of the Commons.

    It seems fashionable to blame MPs on all sides at the moment. But that is falling into the trap of the people vs. Parliament narrative pushed by number 10.

    In most dispassionate terms, this cabinet could have had Brexit in March if they had voted for it. They then engaged in a game of Brinkmanship threatening a no deal exit, but didn’t inspire confidence that they wanted a deal. It looked like they actually wanted no deal and were stopped. They tried to bend the law on Parliament and were found to break it. Now they are deepening divisions by doubling down on inflammatory rhetoric. Having once ruled out an election, they no say one is essential, largely because they sacked 20 of their own MPs.


    That’s a lot of partisan whataboutist nonsense.

    The Cabinet did vote for a Brexit Deal in May.

    It was voted down by the ideologues in the ERG, and the utterly cynical opportunism of the opposition.

    We will get nowhere so long as both side use their remarkable proluctivity for confirmation bias to blame the other.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Solution to bringing to country together:

    Deliver an outcome that virtually nobody voted for by pandering to the extreme end (furthest from the initial binary divide) whilst claiming public support from people who would never have voted as they did in the first place had the outcome not been dismissed at the time, and playing down the consequences of the outcome for those who currently claim to support it.

    I think Johnson has cracked (it).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855

    ydoethur said:

    Except that those of us who follow the issues may believe that Labour can't win a majority, but frankly things are so messy and unpredictable at the moment that it's impossible to be sure; and, in any event, the vast bulk of the population doesn't spend its time analysing the breakdown of the electorate or potential swing patterns in key marginal constituencies.

    Fear of Corbyn and his acolytes is, barring a wholly unexpected coup in the Labour Party, bound to be a factor in people's voting intentions come the next election, and probably a more significant one than it was last time. Labour got away with very little scrutiny of its manifesto in 2017 because the prospect of it actually getting into Government was written off, due to the stupid opinion polls and the even more stupid journalists who gave them too much credence. This is unlikely to be the case next time around.

    Also, the manifesto is a lot more open about its intentions this time. For example, last time their VAT policies would have closed most private schools, but as this was not explicitly stated most people (including most on this board) just thought it would be rich people paying more tax, not hundreds of thousands of extra children suddenly swamping the state sector.

    Now, Labour have openly committed to the abolition and expropriation of private schools and transferring everything except probably the money to a state sector already on the brink of collapse.

    You don't have to be a foam-flecked nutter like Cummings to have very strong reservations about that on a number of levels. But in practice, the policies are identical.
    The policies by conference were quite bonkers, as much a danger as no deal would be. They will surely be rewritten substantially and toned down in the manifesto - of course the conference ones would still leave them open to easy attack lines from opponents.
    Corbyn has always said he will abide by motions at conference. So I don't think he can tone them down without damaging his brand among his supporters. Since that's all he cares about, he won't do it.
  • Meanwhile I didn’t see this mentioned yesterday:

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1177248861708017664?s=21

    Sadly it’s pretty clear this is no longer a decent country.

    It is a decent country, just we have an absolute **** as PM. It will pass.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855

    Jonathan said:

    MPs are focussing solely on their own positions at the moment and not caring about the bigger picture, where they might need to sacrifice a bit of what they’d like to have if they had their own way in the national interest of ending this feud.

    It’s the tragedy of the Commons.

    It seems fashionable to blame MPs on all sides at the moment. But that is falling into the trap of the people vs. Parliament narrative pushed by number 10.

    In most dispassionate terms, this cabinet could have had Brexit in March if they had voted for it. They then engaged in a game of Brinkmanship threatening a no deal exit, but didn’t inspire confidence that they wanted a deal. It looked like they actually wanted no deal and were stopped. They tried to bend the law on Parliament and were found to break it. Now they are deepening divisions by doubling down on inflammatory rhetoric. Having once ruled out an election, they no say one is essential, largely because they sacked 20 of their own MPs.


    Jonathan said:

    MPs are focussing solely on their own positions at the moment and not caring about the bigger picture, where they might need to sacrifice a bit of what they’d like to have if they had their own way in the national interest of ending this feud.

    It’s the tragedy of the Commons.

    It seems fashionable to blame MPs on all sides at the moment. But that is falling into the trap of the people vs. Parliament narrative pushed by number 10.

    In most dispassionate terms, this cabinet could have had Brexit in March if they had voted for it. They then engaged in a game of Brinkmanship threatening a no deal exit, but didn’t inspire confidence that they wanted a deal. It looked like they actually wanted no deal and were stopped. They tried to bend the law on Parliament and were found to break it. Now they are deepening divisions by doubling down on inflammatory rhetoric. Having once ruled out an election, they no say one is essential, largely because they sacked 20 of their own MPs.


    That’s a lot of partisan whataboutist nonsense.

    The Cabinet did vote for a Brexit Deal in May.

    It was voted down by the ideologues in the ERG.
    Many of whom are now in Cabinet.
  • This is an excellent and balanced summary.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    ydoethur said:

    Except that those of us who follow the issues may believe that Labour can't win a majority, but frankly things are so messy and unpredictable at the moment that it's impossible to be sure; and, in any event, the vast bulk of the population doesn't spend its time analysing the breakdown of the electorate or potential swing patterns in key marginal constituencies.

    Fear of Corbyn and his acolytes is, barring a wholly unexpected coup in the Labour Party, bound to be a factor in people's voting intentions come the next election, and probably a more significant one than it was last time. Labour got away with very little scrutiny of its manifesto in 2017 because the prospect of it actually getting into Government was written off, due to the stupid opinion polls and the even more stupid journalists who gave them too much credence. This is unlikely to be the case next time around.

    Also, the manifesto is a lot more open about its intentions this time. For example, last time their VAT policies would have closed most private schools, but as this was not explicitly stated most people (including most on this board) just thought it would be rich people paying more tax, not hundreds of thousands of extra children suddenly swamping the state sector.

    Now, Labour have openly committed to the abolition and expropriation of private schools and transferring everything except probably the money to a state sector already on the brink of collapse.

    You don't have to be a foam-flecked nutter like Cummings to have very strong reservations about that on a number of levels. But in practice, the policies are identical.
    The policies by conference were quite bonkers, as much a danger as no deal would be. They will surely be rewritten substantially and toned down in the manifesto - of course the conference ones would still leave them open to easy attack lines from opponents.
    Fine if Corbyn hadn’t included half of them in his speech!
  • Jonathan said:

    MPs are focussing solely on their own positions at the moment and not caring about the bigger picture, where they might need to sacrifice a bit of what they’d like to have if they had their own way in the national interest of ending this feud.

    It’s the tragedy of the Commons.

    It seems fashionable to blame MPs on all sides at the moment. But that is falling into the trap of the people vs. Parliament narrative pushed by number 10.

    In most dispassionate terms, this cabinet could have had Brexit in March if they had voted for it. They then engaged in a game of Brinkmanship threatening a no deal exit, but didn’t inspire confidence that they wanted a deal. It looked like they actually wanted no deal and were stopped. They tried to bend the law on Parliament and were found to break it. Now they are deepening divisions by doubling down on inflammatory rhetoric. Having once ruled out an election, they no say one is essential, largely because they sacked 20 of their own MPs.


    Jonathan said:

    MPs are focussing solely on their own positions at the moment and not caring about the bigger picture, where they might need to sacrifice a bit of what they’d like to have if they had their own way in the national interest of ending this feud.

    It’s the tragedy of the Commons.

    It seems fashionable to blame MPs on all sides at the moment. But that is falling into the trap of the people vs. Parliament narrative pushed by number 10.

    In most dispassionate terms, this cabinet could have had Brexit in March if they had voted for it. They then engaged in a game of Brinkmanship threatening a no deal exit, but didn’t inspire confidence that they wanted a deal. It looked like they actually wanted no deal and were stopped. They tried to bend the law on Parliament and were found to break it. Now they are deepening divisions by doubling down on inflammatory rhetoric. Having once ruled out an election, they no say one is essential, largely because they sacked 20 of their own MPs.


    That’s a lot of partisan whataboutist nonsense.

    The Cabinet did vote for a Brexit Deal in May.

    It was voted down by the ideologues in the ERG, and the utterly cynical opportunism of the opposition.

    We will get nowhere so long as both side use their remarkable proluctivity for confirmation bias to blame the other.
    Nearly everyone has some share of the blame. It is not whataboutery to say that the PM and the govt have a different level of responsibility for events than the opposition. It is an observation of the obvious.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    alex. said:

    Solution to bringing to country together:

    Deliver an outcome that virtually nobody voted for by pandering to the extreme end (furthest from the initial binary divide) whilst claiming public support from people who would never have voted as they did in the first place had the outcome not been dismissed at the time, and playing down the consequences of the outcome for those who currently claim to support it.

    I think Johnson has cracked (it).

    Well, he's trying his damnedest to unite the country against him.

    But we're so divided even that isn't working.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,670
    edited September 2019
    Mr. Jonathan, point of order: the polarisation is being exacerbated by Boris Johnson. It wasn't created by him.

    It's also unclear whether this is a deliberate strategy or a clownish misstep by someone endowed with the intellectual clout of a boiled cabbage.

    Edited extra bit: corrected minor typo.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855

    Mr. Jonathan, point of order: the polarisation is being exacerbated by Boris Johnson. It wasn't created by him.

    It's also unclear whether this is a deliberate strategy or a clownish misstep by someone endowed with the intellectual clout of a boiled cabbage.

    Edited extra bit: corrected minor typo.

    Unfair. Boiled cabbages are far more intelligent than Johnson and Cummings.
  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 357
    ydoethur said:

    until HS2 is built the WCML is so congested it's hardly reliable either.

    I've spent most of the past 40 years up and down the WCML. It's had its bad patches, but it hasn't had me anything worse than ten minutes later than planned at all this century.

    Am I just lucky?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,604

    Jonathan said:

    MPs are focussing solely on their own positions at the moment and not caring about the bigger picture, where they might need to sacrifice a bit of what they’d like to have if they had their own way in the national interest of ending this feud.

    It’s the tragedy of the Commons.

    It seems fashionable to blame MPs on all sides at the moment. But that is falling into the trap of the people vs. Parliament narrative pushed by number 10.

    In most dispassionate terms, this cabinet could have had Brexit in March if they had voted for it. They then engaged in a game of Brinkmanship threatening a no deal exit, but didn’t inspire confidence that they wanted a deal. It looked like they actually wanted no deal and were stopped. They tried to bend the law on Parliament and were found to break it. Now they are deepening divisions by doubling down on inflammatory rhetoric. Having once ruled out an election, they no say one is essential, largely because they sacked 20 of their own MPs.


    Jonathan said:

    MPs are focussing solely on their own positions at the moment and not caring about the bigger picture, where they might need to sacrifice a bit of what they’d like to have if they had their own way in the national interest of ending this feud.

    It’s the tragedy of the Commons.

    It seems fashionable to blame MPs on all sides at the moment. But that is falling into the trap of the people vs. Parliament narrative pushed by number 10.

    In most dispassionate terms, this cabinet could have had Brexit in March if they had voted for it. They then engaged in a game of Brinkmanship threatening a no deal exit, but didn’t inspire confidence that they wanted a deal. It looked like they actually wanted no deal and were stopped. They tried to bend the law on Parliament and were found to break it.


    That’s a lot of partisan whataboutist nonsense.

    The Cabinet did vote for a Brexit Deal in May.

    It was voted down by the ideologues in the ERG, and the utterly cynical opportunism of the opposition.

    We will get nowhere so long as both side use their remarkable proluctivity for confirmation bias to blame the other.
    Key members of this cabinet didn’t vote for Brexit. Oppositions oppose. That’s their job in Parliament. It’s the governments job to get a majority for their policy, in a hung parliament that means they need to compromise and convince. There was precious little of that.

    I am not blaming anyone. Just describing what has happened and asserting that by blaming MPs you are supporting the latest Cummings narrative.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,864



    Nearly everyone has some share of the blame. It is not whataboutery to say that the PM and the govt have a different level of responsibility for events than the opposition. It is an observation of the obvious.

    All fair comment.

    But, it is also an "observation of the obvious" to say that the PM & Government can be removed very easily.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    Flanner said:

    ydoethur said:

    until HS2 is built the WCML is so congested it's hardly reliable either.

    I've spent most of the past 40 years up and down the WCML. It's had its bad patches, but it hasn't had me anything worse than ten minutes later than planned at all this century.

    Am I just lucky?
    Yes. This is the reality for those of us whose local services share it:

    https://www.expressandstar.com/news/transport/2019/09/04/200m-chase-line-service-scrapped-over-complaints/

    We desperately need more capacity.


  • Nearly everyone has some share of the blame. It is not whataboutery to say that the PM and the govt have a different level of responsibility for events than the opposition. It is an observation of the obvious.

    All fair comment.

    But, it is also an "observation of the obvious" to say that the PM & Government can be removed very easily.
    Yes but whilst being PM one has a responsibility and duty to act. If you are a minority govt PM the idea that you can simply attack all your opponents and promise to do something the parliamentary majority will block is a dereliction of duty.

    All it can lead to is voters feeling cheated and frustrated, looking for someone to blame. He merely hopes they blame the wrong people.
  • Flanner said:

    ydoethur said:

    until HS2 is built the WCML is so congested it's hardly reliable either.

    I've spent most of the past 40 years up and down the WCML. It's had its bad patches, but it hasn't had me anything worse than ten minutes later than planned at all this century.

    Am I just lucky?
    Can you pick some lottery numbers for me?
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 1,487
    The interesting thing is that "nice middle class Conservative women" in the Home Counties are leaving the party en bloc. The ripe language and the rage that Cummings is trying to capitalize on is alienating at least a third of the Tory core vote. There are huge swings in Con/LD marginals.

    More interesting still is why there is this sense of almost panic on the Tory front bench: error after error and not only no contrition but doubling down on the language and attitude that alienate not only Conservative women, but most of the middle class.

    Did Rachel give away more than she intended? Is there in fact some much bigger financial scandal than Arcuri (which already looks pretty terrible)?

    An ethics investigation has been launched by the Cabinet office into the personal connections between Johnson and certain hedge fund managers. Has our loose lipped PM dropped a far bigger clanger than Darius Guppy and promised things he had no right to promise?

    The gossip around Downing St says that several Johnson chickens are coming home to roost at the same time. "When sorrows come, they come not as single spies, but in battalions".

    It feels like something very big is brewing and the Tories may be firmly in the cross hairs. Those expelled have nothing to lose by maintaining loyalty now, so the August massacre may be the first of Johnson's deep regrets.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    edited September 2019
    Jonathan said:

    Key members of this cabinet didn’t vote for Brexit. Oppositions oppose. That’s their job in Parliament. It’s the governments job to get a majority for their policy, in a hung parliament that means they need to compromise and convince. There was precious little of that.

    I am not blaming anyone. Just describing what has happened and asserting that by blaming MPs you are supporting the latest Cummings narrative.

    Which would have been an unanswerable point if the opposition had shown the slightest interest in any form of compromise. But even when talks were belatedly opened and they were in effect given the compromise they asked for, they refused to budge. The leader of the opposition - a man who shares platforms with mass murderers, Holocaust deniers and fascist dictators - even walked out of these talks claiming that he was offended at being in the same room as an MP who left Labour over Corbyn's racism.

    So, yes, all MPs who voted against this deal own this. I will give the SNP and Liberal Democrats a pass because they have an alternative plan. Labour, for all their pompous and condescending blether, do not.

    No, I haven't forgotten your views on Corbyn.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    Jonathan said:

    MPs are focussing solely on their own positions at the moment and not caring about the bigger picture, where they might need to sacrifice a bit of what they’d like to have if they had their own way in the national interest of ending this feud.

    It’s the tragedy of the Commons.

    It seems fashionable to blame MPs on all sides at the moment. But that is falling into the trap of the people vs. Parliament narrative pushed by number 10.

    In most dispassionate terms, this cabinet could have had Brexit in March if they had voted for it. They then engaged in a game of Brinkmanship threatening a no deal exit, but didn’t inspire confidence that they wanted a deal. It looked like they actually wanted no deal and were stopped. They tried to bend the law on Parliament and were found to break it. Now they are deepening divisions by doubling down on inflammatory rhetoric. Having once ruled out an election, they no say one is essential, largely because they sacked 20 of their own MPs.


    Jonathan said:

    MPs are focussing solely on their own positions at the moment and not caring about the bigger picture, where they might need to sacrifice a bit of what they’d like to have if they had their own way in the national interest of ending this feud.

    It’s the tragedy of the Commons.

    It seems fashionable to blame MPs on all sides at the moment. But that is falling into the trap of the people vs. Parliament narrative pushed by number 10.

    In most dispassionate terms, this cabinet could have had Brexit in March if they had voted for it. They then engaged in a game of Brinkmanship threatening a no deal exit, but didn’t inspire confidence that they wanted a deal. It looked like they actually wanted no deal and were stopped. They tried to bend the law on Parliament and were found to break it. Now they are deepening divisions by doubling down on inflammatory rhetoric. Having once ruled out an election, they no say one is essential, largely because they sacked 20 of their own MPs.


    That’s a lot of partisan whataboutist nonsense.

    The Cabinet did vote for a Brexit Deal in May.

    It was voted down by the ideologues in the ERG, and the utterly cynical opportunism of the opposition.

    We will get nowhere so long as both side use their remarkable proluctivity for confirmation bias to blame the other.
    He wrote THIS cabinet for a reason...
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    MPs are focussing solely on their own positions at the moment and not caring about the bigger picture, where they might need to sacrifice a bit of what they’d like to have if they had their own way in the national interest of ending this feud.

    It’s the tragedy of the Commons.




    Jonathan said:

    MPs are focussing solely on their own positions at the moment and not caring about the bigger picture, where they might need to sacrifice a bit of what they’d like to have if they had their own way in the national interest of ending this feud.

    It’s the tragedy of the Commons.

    It seems fashionable to blame MPs on all sides at the moment. But that is falling into the trap of the people vs. Parliament narrative pushed by number 10.

    In most dispassionate terms, this cabinet could have had Brexit in March if they had voted for it. They then engaged in a game of Brinkmanship threatening a no deal exit, but didn’t inspire confidence that they wanted a deal. It looked like they actually wanted no deal and were stopped. They tried to bend the law on Parliament and were found to break it.


    That’s a lot of partisan whataboutist nonsense.

    The Cabinet did vote for a Brexit Deal in May.

    It was voted down by the ideologues in the ERG, and the utterly cynical opportunism of the opposition.

    We will get nowhere so long as both side use their remarkable proluctivity for confirmation bias to blame the other.
    Key members of this cabinet didn’t vote for Brexit. Oppositions oppose. That’s their job in Parliament. It’s the governments job to get a majority for their policy, in a hung parliament that means they need to compromise and convince. There was precious little of that.

    I am not blaming anyone. Just describing what has happened and asserting that by blaming MPs you are supporting the latest Cummings narrative.
    The fact that Parliamentarians haven’t been willing to compromise is entirely my point. We know Labour have virtually no issues with the WA: it’s the future political arrangements for the FTA that were up for debate and the discussion could have moved onto that very quickly.

    Quite aside from the fact it’s in the broader long-term political interests of both Labour and the Conservatives to move on from Brexit.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Meanwhile I didn’t see this mentioned yesterday:

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1177248861708017664?s=21

    Sadly it’s pretty clear this is no longer a decent country.

    It is a decent country, just we have an absolute **** as PM. It will pass.
    but it is about Brexit, it really is, like him or loathe him there are opposition parties desperate to stop Johnson achieving Brexit. those are the facts. Johnson's methods may disgust, but it does not alter the facts as the public see it. hence the abuse.
  • Jonathan said:

    MPs are focussing solely on their own positions at the moment and not caring about the bigger picture, where they might need to sacrifice a bit of what they’d like to have if they had their own way in the national interest of ending this feud.

    It’s the tragedy of the Commons.

    It seems fashionable to blame MPs on all sides at the moment. But that is falling into the trap of the people vs. Parliament narrative pushed by number 10.




    Jonathan said:

    MPs are focussing solely on their own positions at the moment and not caring about the bigger picture, where they might need to sacrifice a bit of what they’d like to have if they had their own way in the national interest of ending this feud.

    It’s the tragedy of the Commons.

    It seems fashionable to blame MPs on all sides at the moment. But that is falling into the trap of the people vs. Parliament narrative pushed by number 10.

    In most dispassionate terms, this cabinet could have had Brexit in March if they had voted for it. They then engaged in a game of Brinkmanship threatening a no deal exit, but didn’t inspire confidence that they wanted a deal. It looked like they actually wanted no deal and were stopped. They tried to bend the law on Parliament and were found to break it. Now they are deepening divisions by doubling down on inflammatory rhetoric. Having once ruled out an election, they no say one is essential, largely because they sacked 20 of their own MPs.


    That’s a lot of partisan whataboutist nonsense.

    The Cabinet did vote for a Brexit Deal in May.

    It was voted down by the ideologues in the ERG, and the utterly cynical opportunism of the opposition.

    We will get nowhere so long as both side use their remarkable proluctivity for confirmation bias to blame the other.
    Nearly everyone has some share of the blame. It is not whataboutery to say that the PM and the govt have a different level of responsibility for events than the opposition. It is an observation of the obvious.
    We all know that the current Labour leader believes he’ll profit from the chaos of a No Deal Brexit to pursue his warped extreme ideology. That’s what lies behind his moves.

    Others in his shadow cabinet just think trench warfare will destroy Brexit.

    They are both being utterly short-sighted.

    Yes, a combined Labour-Conservative negotiating team in Brussels would make the most sense, or at least a political panel to review the deal, but both sides don’t have the balls or bravery to lead on that, and back it up to the public.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,604

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    MPs are focussing solely on their own positions at the moment and not caring about the bigger picture, where they might need to sacrifice a bit of what they’d like to have if they had their own way in the national interest of ending this feud.

    It’s the tragedy of the Commons.




    Jonathan said:

    MPs are focussing solely on their own positions at the moment and not caring about the bigger picture, where they might need to sacrifice a bit of what they’d like to have if they had their own way in the national interest of ending this feud.

    It’s the tragedy of the Commons.

    It seems fashionable to blame MPs on all sides at the moment. But that is falling into the trap of the people vs. Parliament narrative pushed by number 10.

    In most dispassionate terms, this cabinet could have had Brexit in March if they had voted for it. They then engaged in a game of Brinkmanship threatening a no deal exit, but didn’t inspire confidence that they wanted a deal. It looked like they actually wanted no deal and were stopped. They tried to bend the law on Parliament and were found to break it.


    That’s a lot of partisan whataboutist nonsense.

    The Cabinet did vote for a Brexit Deal in May.

    It was voted down by the ideologues in the ERG, and the utterly cynical opportunism of the opposition.

    We will get nowhere so long as both side use their remarkable proluctivity for confirmation bias to blame the other.
    Key members of this cabinet didn’t vote for Brexit. Oppositions oppose. That’s their job in Parliament. It’s the governments job to get a majority for their policy, in a hung parliament that means they need to compromise and convince. There was precious little of that.

    I am not blaming anyone. Just describing what has happened and asserting that by blaming MPs you are supporting the latest Cummings narrative.
    The fact that Parliamentarians haven’t been willing to compromise is entirely my point. We know Labour have virtually no issues with the WA: it’s the future political arrangements for the FTA that were up for debate and the discussion could have moved onto that very quickly.

    Quite aside from the fact it’s in the broader long-term political interests of both Labour and the Conservatives to move on from Brexit.
    No meaningful compromise was ever offered. Talks were offered too late at a point when Mays ability to deliver anything was shot. The time for compromise was immediately after the 2017 election.

    Oh well.
  • ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    MPs are focussing solely on their own positions at the moment and not caring about the bigger picture, where they might need to sacrifice a bit of what they’d like to have if they had their own way in the national interest of ending this feud.

    It’s the tragedy of the Commons.




    Jonathan said:

    MPs are focussing solely on their own positions at the moment and not caring about the bigger picture, where they might need to sacrifice a bit of what they’d like to have if they had their own way in the national interest of ending this feud.

    It’s the tragedy of the Commons.

    It seems fashionable to blame MPs on all sides at the moment. But that is falling into the trap of the people vs. Parliament narrative pushed by number 10.

    In most dispassionate terms, this cabinet could have had Brexit in March if they had voted for it. They then engaged in a game of Brinkmanship threatening a no deal exit, but didn’t inspire confidence that they wanted a deal. It looked like they actually wanted no deal and were stopped. They tried to bend the law on Parliament and were found to break it. Now they are deepening divisions by doubling down on inflammatory rhetoric. Having once ruled out an election, they no say one is essential, largely because they sacked 20 of their own MPs.


    That’s a lot of partisan whataboutist nonsense.

    The Cabinet did vote for a Brexit Deal in May.

    It was voted down by the ideologues in the ERG.
    Many of whom are now in Cabinet.
    Indeed. I said the ideologues in the ERG were just as much to blame before, and I stand by that.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042

    Jonathan said:

    MPs are focussing solely on their own positions at the moment and not caring about the bigger picture, where they might need to sacrifice a bit of what they’d like to have if they had their own way in the national interest of ending this feud.

    It’s the tragedy of the Commons.

    It seems fashionable to blame MPs on all sides at the moment. But that is falling into the trap of the people vs. Parliament narrative pushed by number 10.

    In most dispassionate terms, this cabinet could have had Brexit in March if they had voted for it. They then engaged in a game of Brinkmanship threatening a no deal exit, but didn’t inspire confidence that they wanted a deal. It looked like they actually wanted no deal and were stopped. They tried to bend the law on Parliament and were found to break it. Now they are deepening divisions by doubling down on inflammatory rhetoric. Having once ruled out an election, they no say one is essential, largely because they sacked 20 of their own MPs.


    Quite. The problem is the executive not the legislature.
    Power currently resides with the legislature.

    They took it. They've broken it. They own it. They'll pay for it.
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    MPs are focussing solely on their own positions at the moment and not caring about the bigger picture, where they might need to sacrifice a bit of what they’d like to have if they had their own way in the national interest of ending this feud.

    It’s the tragedy of the Commons.




    Jonathan said:

    MPs are focussing solely on their own positions at the moment and not caring about the bigger picture, where they might need to sacrifice a bit of what they’d like to have if they had their own way in the national interest of ending this feud.

    It’s the tragedy of the Commons.

    It seems fashionable to bla and were found to break it.


    That’s a lot of partisan whataboutist nonsense.

    The Cabinet did vote for a Brexit Deal in May.

    It was voted down by the ideologues in the ERG, and the utterly cynical opportunism of the opposition.

    We will get nowhere so long as both side use their remarkable proluctivity for confirmation bias to blame the other.
    Key members of this cabinet didn’t vote for Brexit. Oppositions oppose. That’s their job in Parliament. It’s the governments job to get a majority for their policy, in a hung parliament that means they need to compromise and convince. There was precious little of that.

    I am not blaming anyone. Just describing what has happened and asserting that by blaming MPs you are supporting the latest Cummings narrative.
    The fact that Parliamentarians haven’t been willing to compromise is entirely my point. We know Labour have virtually no issues with the WA: it’s the future political arrangements for the FTA that were up for debate and the discussion could have moved onto that very quickly.

    Quite aside from the fact it’s in the broader long-term political interests of both Labour and the Conservatives to move on from Brexit.
    No meaningful compromise was ever offered. Talks were offered too late at a point when Mays ability to deliver anything was shot. The time for compromise was immediately after the 2017 election.

    Oh well.
    I agree with that last point.

    And that would have required very brave political leadership from both sides.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Re: “Moderate Tory (women) in the Home Counties”

    I wonder if any Resident’s Associations might be tempted to put up candidates at a General Election?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    MattW said:

    And fantastic news for the Liberal Democrats in Scotland: the latest ComRes split shows Jo Swinson’s team more than doubling their support, to 16%. This ought to be enough for them to re-take NE Fife and comfortably hold their 4 current seats.

    Stu and his Scottish subsamples LOL.

    Total numbers of Scots sampled to give these results: total = 101.

    Total numbers expressing an intention to Vote Lib Dem after exclusion of DK etc ... er, 12 afaics - increased from what would around 6.

    That'll be reliable :-) What's the error margin, Stu?

    https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1177450647915909121
    This is a pisstake of HYUFD who is Scottish sub sample mad.
  • Jonathan said:

    tlg86 said:

    Jonathan said:

    MPs are focussing solely on their own positions at the moment and not caring about the bigger picture, where they might need to sacrifice a bit of what they’d like to have if they had their own way in the national interest of ending this feud.

    It’s the tragedy of the Commons.

    It seems fashionable to blame MPs on all sides at the moment. But that is falling into the trap of the people vs. Parliament narrative pushed by number 10.

    In most dispassionate terms, this cabinet could have had Brexit in March if they had voted for it. They then engaged in a game of Brinkmanship threatening a no deal exit, but didn’t inspire confidence that they wanted a deal. It looked like they actually wanted no deal and were stopped. They tried to bend the law on Parliament and were found to break it. Now they are deepening divisions by doubling down on inflammatory rhetoric. Having once ruled out an election, they no say one is essential, largely because they sacked 20 of their own MPs.


    Quite. The problem is the executive not the legislature.
    And changing the executive is in the gift of the legislature.
    But that is hard to do in a hung parliament, but doubly hard to do when the incumbent intends to use the process of changing administration to sneak through policy for which they have no majority.

    The opposition will get there, it it will be close.
    There wouldn't be a hung parliament if both main parties hadn't decided to play silly beggars and call the election in 2017.
  • In better news, I just discovered Civ VI is being released for consoles in November.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RtjDsCo6rxw
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    Alistair said:

    MattW said:

    And fantastic news for the Liberal Democrats in Scotland: the latest ComRes split shows Jo Swinson’s team more than doubling their support, to 16%. This ought to be enough for them to re-take NE Fife and comfortably hold their 4 current seats.

    Stu and his Scottish subsamples LOL.

    Total numbers of Scots sampled to give these results: total = 101.

    Total numbers expressing an intention to Vote Lib Dem after exclusion of DK etc ... er, 12 afaics - increased from what would around 6.

    That'll be reliable :-) What's the error margin, Stu?

    https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1177450647915909121
    This is a pisstake of HYUFD who is Scottish sub sample mad.
    Scottish subsamples KLAXON!

    Although it was @Stuart_Dickson who was doing it on the las thread.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited September 2019
    Flanner said:

    ydoethur said:

    until HS2 is built the WCML is so congested it's hardly reliable either.

    I've spent most of the past 40 years up and down the WCML. It's had its bad patches, but it hasn't had me anything worse than ten minutes later than planned at all this century.

    Am I just lucky?
    You must be the luckiest person alive. Very implausible.

    I've been using the ECML weekly for the last six months and often experience delays. Is the WCML a better bet?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    MattW said:

    And fantastic news for the Liberal Democrats in Scotland: the latest ComRes split shows Jo Swinson’s team more than doubling their support, to 16%. This ought to be enough for them to re-take NE Fife and comfortably hold their 4 current seats.

    Stu and his Scottish subsamples LOL.

    Total numbers of Scots sampled to give these results: total = 101.

    Total numbers expressing an intention to Vote Lib Dem after exclusion of DK etc ... er, 12 afaics - increased from what would around 6.

    That'll be reliable :-) What's the error margin, Stu?

    https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1177450647915909121
    This is a pisstake of HYUFD who is Scottish sub sample mad.
    Scottish subsamples KLAXON!

    Although it was @Stuart_Dickson who was doing it on the las thread.
    Yes, as a pisstake!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,604
    edited September 2019
    FWIW for me this isn’t partisan and hasn’t been for years. Mainly due to the fact that my party doesn’t really exist currently. Quite frankly it isn’t about Brexit either. I would have preferred EFTA.

    For me this is now about finding a way to defeat polarisation, populism and cynical manipulation of popular opinion through tools like social media. This latest example of number 10 whipping up the mob and bending the law until it breaks and then crying to the ref, is what I am against. It must be defeated.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,922
    edited September 2019

    Meanwhile I didn’t see this mentioned yesterday:

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1177248861708017664?s=21

    Sadly it’s pretty clear this is no longer a decent country.

    It is a decent country, just we have an absolute **** as PM. It will pass.
    but it is about Brexit, it really is, like him or loathe him there are opposition parties desperate to stop Johnson achieving Brexit. those are the facts. Johnson's methods may disgust, but it does not alter the facts as the public see it. hence the abuse.
    That is what he wants people to believe.

    The number of people or MPs who really want to stop Brexit at all costs is about 1 in 5. Well over 500 MPs have voted for their preferred flavour of Brexit.

    Why does a minority government think it has a divine right to determine the flavour of Brexit without any input from the parliamentary majority?

    Not to mention then demonising the people whose votes they need to deliver the Brexit (which Boris claims they really want to do) as traitors. What rational person who needs someones vote does that? It is bonkers. It is not just about his method being disgusting, it is both disgusting and cannot achieve what he claims to want.

    A PM willing to reach out, negotiate and compromise could achieve Brexit very quickly and maintain the fabric of society.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855

    Flanner said:

    ydoethur said:

    until HS2 is built the WCML is so congested it's hardly reliable either.

    I've spent most of the past 40 years up and down the WCML. It's had its bad patches, but it hasn't had me anything worse than ten minutes later than planned at all this century.

    Am I just lucky?
    You must be the luckiest person alive. Do you have any lottery numbers you can suggest?
    If you're travelling on an express, it's pretty good actually. But that's because in the event of a delay, they prioritise the expresses and epically bugger up every other service on the line to make do.

    Which is bloody annoying if you are on one of the said other services.
  • Cicero said:

    The interesting thing is that "nice middle class Conservative women" in the Home Counties are leaving the party en bloc. The ripe language and the rage that Cummings is trying to capitalize on is alienating at least a third of the Tory core vote. There are huge swings in Con/LD marginals.

    More interesting still is why there is this sense of almost panic on the Tory front bench: error after error and not only no contrition but doubling down on the language and attitude that alienate not only Conservative women, but most of the middle class.

    Did Rachel give away more than she intended? Is there in fact some much bigger financial scandal than Arcuri (which already looks pretty terrible)?

    An ethics investigation has been launched by the Cabinet office into the personal connections between Johnson and certain hedge fund managers. Has our loose lipped PM dropped a far bigger clanger than Darius Guppy and promised things he had no right to promise?

    The gossip around Downing St says that several Johnson chickens are coming home to roost at the same time. "When sorrows come, they come not as single spies, but in battalions".

    It feels like something very big is brewing and the Tories may be firmly in the cross hairs. Those expelled have nothing to lose by maintaining loyalty now, so the August massacre may be the first of Johnson's deep regrets.


    *Stockpiling popcorn*
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148
    Of the 21 Con MPs who were booted out of the party for refusing to back Brexit over further extension only Guto Bebb and Justine Greening are in marginal seats that have ever been won by a party other than the Tories so even if they did at and as Independents I doubt it would make much difference.

    I hope OGH you will look at Labour MPs that were in seats that were strongly for Leave as well as Tory Mps in seats that were strongly for Remain
  • Mr. Jonathan, the problem that some on the right, who might otherwise vote Labour, have is that their leader is even worse.

    Boris Johnson isn't fit to be PM. Nor is Corbyn. But Corbyn is far left, whereas the PM's lunacy is ego-driven. It's also a lot easier to oust a Conservative leader than a Labour one.

    Just one more complicating factor when trying to predict the next election.
  • Meanwhile I didn’t see this mentioned yesterday:

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1177248861708017664?s=21

    Sadly it’s pretty clear this is no longer a decent country.

    It is a decent country, just we have an absolute **** as PM. It will pass.
    but it is about Brexit, it really is, like him or loathe him there are opposition parties desperate to stop Johnson achieving Brexit. those are the facts. Johnson's methods may disgust, but it does not alter the facts as the public see it. hence the abuse.
    That is what he wants people to believe.

    The number of people or MPs who really want to stop Brexit at all costs is about 1 in 5. Well over 500 MPs have voted for their preferred flavour of Brexit.

    Why does a minority government think it has a divine right to determine the flavour of Brexit without any input from the parliamentary majority?

    Not to mention then demonising the people whose votes they need to deliver the Brexit (which Boris claims they really want to do) as traitors. What rational person who needs someones vote does that? It is bonkers. It is not just about his method being disgusting, it is both disgusting and cannot achieve what he claims to want.

    A PM willing to reach out, negotiate and compromise could achieve Brexit very quickly and maintain the fabric of society.
    This is what so enrages me about the government's strategy. If they would only compromise and either embrace a softer form of Brexit or attach a confirmatory referendum to their preferred deal then it would have already got through the Commons. Their arrogance is breathtaking.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148
    edited September 2019
    Cicero said:

    The interesting thing is that "nice middle class Conservative women" in the Home Counties are leaving the party en bloc. The ripe language and the rage that Cummings is trying to capitalize on is alienating at least a third of the Tory core vote. There are huge swings in Con/LD marginals.

    More interesting still is why there is this sense of almost panic on the Tory front bench: error after error and not only no contrition but doubling down on the language and attitude that alienate not only Conservative women, but most of the middle class.

    Did Rachel give away more than she intended? Is there in fact some much bigger financial scandal than Arcuri (which already looks pretty terrible)?

    An ethics investigation has been launched by the Cabinet office into the personal connections between Johnson and certain hedge fund managers. Has our loose lipped PM dropped a far bigger clanger than Darius Guppy and promised things he had no right to promise?

    The gossip around Downing St says that several Johnson chickens are coming home to roost at the same time. "When sorrows come, they come not as single spies, but in battalions".

    It feels like something very big is brewing and the Tories may be firmly in the cross hairs. Those expelled have nothing to lose by maintaining loyalty now, so the August massacre may be the first of Johnson's deep regrets.

    Not really, the Tories had a still huge 14% lead in the South over the LDs yesterday with Yougov but in the North were just 1% behind Labour and in the Midlands and Wales had a 10% lead over Labour.

    It is more working class men who voted Leave leaving Labour than Tory Home Counties women who voted Remain leaving the Tories
  • Fishing said:

    The period since the Scottish referendum in 2014 has been probably the most confused and confusing in British political history. We've seen:

    - the eclipse of Scottish Labour
    = the ascendary of Scottish Nationalists
    - the collapse of the Liberal Democrats
    - an avowed Marxist taking over Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition
    - two indecisive general elections including a partial Conservative revival in Scotland
    - a new party (Change UK/TIG - remember them) being set up and basically falling apart
    - a Government depriving itself of a majority
    - maybe the rebirth of the Liberal Democrats
    - the discreditation of the Speaker in the eyes of many MPs

    I'm trying to think of a stranger period in our history and I can only think of:
    - the years of crisis between the loss of the American War of Independence and the establishment of the Pitt the Younger ministry
    - the 1840s and the party convulsions following the repeal of the Corn Laws
    - the Conservatives' self-destruction then partial revival before the First World War
    - the Liberals' annihilation between the Wars

    but nothing really comes close. Going further back, there was a very strange political period between the Nine Years' War and the War of Spanish Succession,
    but we do not have the data to know what went on then.

    It's mostly traceable to the fact that our majoritarian system doesn't really work if one Party doesn't have a clear majority in Parliament. It is arguable that giving the winning party a bonus of 100 party list MPs to get it there could give us the functioning government we used to have. And/or repealing the FTPA, which requires governments to limp on without the confidence of Parliament. But without that, we'll just have to get used to living with Governments in office but not in power.

    I think you need to look up the meaning of 'avowed'. Jezza may or may not be a Marxist but avowing that he's one is something that he's very much avoided doing (handy hint, the Conservative party and Mail saying something does not make it so).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148

    Meanwhile I didn’t see this mentioned yesterday:

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1177248861708017664?s=21

    Sadly it’s pretty clear this is no longer a decent country.

    The definition of decent of course being having a Parliament that ignores the votes of 17 million people it seems and an electorate that accepts that without complaint
  • Cicero said:

    The interesting thing is that "nice middle class Conservative women" in the Home Counties are leaving the party en bloc. The ripe language and the rage that Cummings is trying to capitalize on is alienating at least a third of the Tory core vote. There are huge swings in Con/LD marginals.

    More interesting still is why there is this sense of almost panic on the Tory front bench: error after error and not only no contrition but doubling down on the language and attitude that alienate not only Conservative women, but most of the middle class.

    Did Rachel give away more than she intended? Is there in fact some much bigger financial scandal than Arcuri (which already looks pretty terrible)?

    An ethics investigation has been launched by the Cabinet office into the personal connections between Johnson and certain hedge fund managers. Has our loose lipped PM dropped a far bigger clanger than Darius Guppy and promised things he had no right to promise?

    The gossip around Downing St says that several Johnson chickens are coming home to roost at the same time. "When sorrows come, they come not as single spies, but in battalions".

    It feels like something very big is brewing and the Tories may be firmly in the cross hairs. Those expelled have nothing to lose by maintaining loyalty now, so the August massacre may be the first of Johnson's deep regrets.

    Boris Johnson repels women of a certain age, even those who you might think would be natural supporters of a Conservative party committed to delivering Leave. I'm sure that his antics on Wednesday night will have done him well with Brexity men. With women, I wonder.
  • HYUFD said:

    Meanwhile I didn’t see this mentioned yesterday:

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1177248861708017664?s=21

    Sadly it’s pretty clear this is no longer a decent country.

    The definition of decent of course being having a Parliament that ignores the votes of 17 million people it seems and an electorate that accepts that without complaint
    Any competent PM could deliver Brexit quickly.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148

    And fantastic news for the Liberal Democrats in Scotland: the latest ComRes split shows Jo Swinson’s team more than doubling their support, to 16%. This ought to be enough for them to re-take NE Fife and comfortably hold their 4 current seats.

    SNP will be pleased too. And SLab relieved to be back in 2nd spot. albeit a very distant 2nd.

    However, the party formerly known as “Ruth Davidson’s Candidates” appear to be in freefall: 5th place, on just 10% of the vote. No wonder Ruth did not want her reputation tarnished by The Clown.

    HYUFD was bigging up YouGov yesterday, which had the SCon’s still above 20%, just. But none of the other pollsters are remotely as comforting for spluttering British nationalists. We await the first full-sample Scottish VI poll since Ruth’s resignation, but all indications are that it will be very grim indeed for Tories.

    https://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/The-Telegraph-Tables-Snap-Poll-Sept-2019.pdf

    The grim news is for the SNP on just 35% and 40% with Yougov and Comres ie below or barely above 2017 despite Brexit and Boris
  • HYUFD said:

    Meanwhile I didn’t see this mentioned yesterday:

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1177248861708017664?s=21

    Sadly it’s pretty clear this is no longer a decent country.

    The definition of decent of course being having a Parliament that ignores the votes of 17 million people it seems and an electorate that accepts that without complaint
    The votes of 17 million people have not been ignored. Pretty well nothing else other than Brexit has been discussed for three years.

    The idea has been investigated, a deal was negotiated based on the Leave campaign and put to Parliament, where it was roundly rejected by all sides as unacceptable.

    The original idea of Leaving with the easiest deal in history has been shown to be a false prospectus. So we need to rethink.
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