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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » An overnight local election result that highlights how difficu
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » An overnight local election result that highlights how difficult it will be to call GE2019
Icknield (Luton) result:
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The end-game is near - whatever that might be...
The Brexit Party supporters will do their own electoral pact in the sanctity of the polling booth (regardless of whether there is a Brexit Party candidate standing in their constituency), will avoid splitting the vote, and will also vote Conservative, knowing that the Conservative Party is the only party which can be trusted to deliver Brexit.
The tiny minority of 16.1 million weird undemocratic anti-democratic Remain voters, Remoaners, Remoaniacs, saboteurs, anti-patriots, and people who want to live under the tyrannical yoke of an undemocratic unaccountable wasteful corrupt foreign bureaucracy of dictators, meddlers, regulators, and impertinent interferers, and who are willing to extract billions of pounds a year from ordinary normal decent hard-working UK taxpayers in order to pay the membership fee, will split their votes in several directions and lose seats accordingly.
The ordinary centre-left weirdoes who do not want their whole existence to be taxed, nationalised, collectivised and regulated by a frenzied gang of extreme-left Maoists under Corbyn, but who are happy for their children to be indoctrinated into yellowism and forced to eat tofu in a politically-correct gulag, will defect from Labour and will vote for the Illiberal Anti-Democrats.
The anti-everything weirdoes of the left who want the whole of civilisation to be abolished will vote for the Green Party or the SNP; and the tiny minority of extreme lefties who want their entire lives to be regimented and controlled in a network of worker-peasant collective slave-camps, will vote for the Labour Party.
The net result is that in the strongest Remain areas, Labour will lose lots of votes and seats to the (il)Lib (anti)Dems, and in the suburbs and swing marginals, a split vote will result in the election of Conservative MPs.
The result will be something like
Con 600 Lab 10 LD 10 SNP 10 Northern Ireland 18 Green 1 PC 1
SNP will be pleased too. And SLab relieved to be back in 2nd spot. albeit a very distant 2nd.
However, the party formerly known as “Ruth Davidson’s Candidates” appear to be in freefall: 5th place, on just 10% of the vote. No wonder Ruth did not want her reputation tarnished by The Clown.
HYUFD was bigging up YouGov yesterday, which had the SCon’s still above 20%, just. But none of the other pollsters are remotely as comforting for spluttering British nationalists. We await the first full-sample Scottish VI poll since Ruth’s resignation, but all indications are that it will be very grim indeed for Tories.
https://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/The-Telegraph-Tables-Snap-Poll-Sept-2019.pdf
1. No Deal - initially 0% (but see below)
2. Deal agreed with EU - 30%..but needs parliamentary approval, so
2a - deal agreed by parliament - 50% - so 15% overall
2b - deal rejected by Parliament - 50% - what next?
3. Boris submits extension request - 10%
4. Boris resigns or VONCd- 20% - replaced by caretaker PM or GONU - extension request submitted
5. Cummings has another trick...40%. ...the known unknown...
In case of 5 the lawyers and judges will be on speed dial -
What happens in 2b?
DomBo ?
https://twitter.com/stephentall/status/1177350553799667712?s=21
FWIW I am not sure what I would do in the final forced choice, though I see Stephen Tall’s logic in his follow-up tweet.
Trump is seeking to overturn US v. Nixon....
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/09/trump-imperial-presidency-investigation-immunity-nixon.html
- the eclipse of Scottish Labour
= the ascendary of Scottish Nationalists
- the collapse of the Liberal Democrats
- an avowed Marxist taking over Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition
- two indecisive general elections including a partial Conservative revival in Scotland
- a new party (Change UK/TIG - remember them) being set up and basically falling apart
- a Government depriving itself of a majority
- maybe the rebirth of the Liberal Democrats
- the discreditation of the Speaker in the eyes of many MPs
I'm trying to think of a stranger period in our history and I can only think of:
- the years of crisis between the loss of the American War of Independence and the establishment of the Pitt the Younger ministry
- the 1840s and the party convulsions following the repeal of the Corn Laws
- the Conservatives' self-destruction then partial revival before the First World War
- the Liberals' annihilation between the Wars
but nothing really comes close. Going further back, there was a very strange political period between the Nine Years' War and the War of Spanish Succession,
but we do not have the data to know what went on then.
It's mostly traceable to the fact that our majoritarian system doesn't really work if one Party doesn't have a clear majority in Parliament. It is arguable that giving the winning party a bonus of 100 party list MPs to get it there could give us the functioning government we used to have. And/or repealing the FTPA, which requires governments to limp on without the confidence of Parliament. But without that, we'll just have to get used to living with Governments in office but not in power.
Total numbers of Scots sampled to give these results: total = 101.
Total numbers expressing an intention to Vote Lib Dem after exclusion of DK etc ... er, 12 afaics - increased from what would around 6.
That'll be reliable :-) What's the error margin, Stu?
https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1177450647915909121
Which is where we would have been without the fuckwittery of the Benn Act. An Act so stupidly treacherous as to blast away at the legs of the UK negotiators with high-calibre weaponry. In the most important commercial negotiation this country has ever undertaken.
And so it deserves to be subject to 5 being a thing, however much it will cause Remain heads to explode.....
But is 5 a thing?
Gym lost.
If there is a revised Deal, then it will be because of the selfless heros of the Benn Act. The only surrender is of the No Dealers...
https://twitter.com/tweetwithkieran/status/1177394961139978241?s=19
I think that they put it back a week because of school exams.
http://www.twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1177327061817528321 What wasn't mentioned is that at this moment there are major roadworks on the M6 between Stoke and Stafford that are causing major delays.
Also, due to some useless pillock not knowing where Oldbury Viaduct is there are major delays around junction 8 due to the totally unnecessary closure of half the M5. That's less likely to be a problem though as I imagine most of them will take the M6 Toll - on expenses.
Frankly, the only way to get from London to Manchester quickly is by train, but until HS2 is built the WCML is so congested it's hardly reliable either.
1. The Tories might as well go ahead with their conference because they're powerless to prevent votes in the Commons going against them, or
2. The Tories should've cancelled the conference and blamed the decision on the unreasonable behaviour of the Opposition. Party conferences are arguably a waste of time and resources, it might have earned them some marginal degree of sympathy amongst part of the electorate, and the potential damage to the Mancunian economy hardly matters to them from an electoral standpoint because Manchester is a Labour one-party state anyway
On balance, they probably should've gone for option 2.
And I do suspect Cummings has or is looking for a 5 - but like Wile E. Coyote it won't last 30 seconds of thought.
As for 2b - Boris can't no deal so will need to ask for an extension or avoid asking for an extension.
I think it’s still marginally quicker via the M6 than the BCN, Staffs & Worcs and Trent & Mersey, but I wonder if the Shropshire Union route might shade it. Unless you hit congestion at Audlem Locks, of course.
It’s the tragedy of the Commons.
These protests need to focussed on the USA, Brazil, Indonesia, China and India.
When the General Election comes, all those who voted Tory in 2015 and/or 2017 will have to decide which matters more to them
Remain in the EU and almost certainly have a Jeremy Corbyn government which will tax them out of being able to pay their mortgages and go on their 3 foreign holidays to other EU countries each year. In addition they will see their pension funds go up in smoke (unless they work in the public sector) as John MacDonnell confiscates the pension fund investments in utility and rail companies in exchange for meaningless, worthless Government bonds as anyone who ever owned "War stocks" knows!
or
Leave the EU by voting Tory and have the inconvenience of having to stand for a wee while at customs when going on their 3 foreign holidays a year plus maybe not getting their favourite fruit out of natural season in the UK for a while.
Vote Tory = get Tory
Vote Labour = get Labour
Vote Liberal = get Labour
Vote SNP/PC/Brexit/Green = get Labour
Elsewhere especially in a Tory held seat - I suspect the best bet will be to vote Lib Dem unless it's a close Tory / Labour marginal.
I suspect You Gov will do a constituency level poll at some point but it's not easy for even them to be correct.
In most dispassionate terms, this cabinet could have had Brexit in March if they had voted for it. They then engaged in a game of Brinkmanship threatening a no deal exit, but didn’t inspire confidence that they wanted a deal. It looked like they actually wanted no deal and were stopped. They tried to bend the law on Parliament and were found to break it. Now they are deepening divisions by doubling down on inflammatory rhetoric. Having once ruled out an election, they no say one is essential, largely because they sacked 20 of their own MPs.
Fear of Corbyn and his acolytes is, barring a wholly unexpected coup in the Labour Party, bound to be a factor in people's voting intentions come the next election, and probably a more significant one than it was last time. Labour got away with very little scrutiny of its manifesto in 2017 because the prospect of it actually getting into Government was written off, due to the stupid opinion polls and the even more stupid journalists who gave them too much credence. This is unlikely to be the case next time around.
Tories will be wiped out if No Deal happens, merely humbled if May's Deal passes, and probably survive an extension IMO.
Now, Labour have openly committed to the abolition and expropriation of private schools and transferring everything except probably the money to a state sector already on the brink of collapse.
You don't have to be a foam-flecked nutter like Cummings to have very strong reservations about that on a number of levels. But in practice, the policies are identical.
https://www.politico.eu/article/where-boris-johnson-went-wrong-dominic-cummings-plan/
The opposition will get there, it it will be close.
“We hate you and despise you, now vote for us you traitors and quislings” is unlikely to be a great recruiting slogan.
Mr. Smithson, aye, I'd suspect lots of weird things like that, plus BP letting in other candidates by taking votes from those currently holding seats.
If we haven't left, of course, some Facebook posters (FWTW) assert that 'they will never vote again'!
https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1177248861708017664?s=21
Sadly it’s pretty clear this is no longer a decent country.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/07/16/the-catch-why-boris-johnson-probably-wont-be-going-for-a-general-election-early/
The Cabinet did vote for a Brexit Deal in May.
It was voted down by the ideologues in the ERG, and the utterly cynical opportunism of the opposition.
We will get nowhere so long as both side use their remarkable proluctivity for confirmation bias to blame the other.
Deliver an outcome that virtually nobody voted for by pandering to the extreme end (furthest from the initial binary divide) whilst claiming public support from people who would never have voted as they did in the first place had the outcome not been dismissed at the time, and playing down the consequences of the outcome for those who currently claim to support it.
I think Johnson has cracked (it).
But we're so divided even that isn't working.
It's also unclear whether this is a deliberate strategy or a clownish misstep by someone endowed with the intellectual clout of a boiled cabbage.
Edited extra bit: corrected minor typo.
Am I just lucky?
I am not blaming anyone. Just describing what has happened and asserting that by blaming MPs you are supporting the latest Cummings narrative.
But, it is also an "observation of the obvious" to say that the PM & Government can be removed very easily.
https://www.expressandstar.com/news/transport/2019/09/04/200m-chase-line-service-scrapped-over-complaints/
We desperately need more capacity.
All it can lead to is voters feeling cheated and frustrated, looking for someone to blame. He merely hopes they blame the wrong people.
More interesting still is why there is this sense of almost panic on the Tory front bench: error after error and not only no contrition but doubling down on the language and attitude that alienate not only Conservative women, but most of the middle class.
Did Rachel give away more than she intended? Is there in fact some much bigger financial scandal than Arcuri (which already looks pretty terrible)?
An ethics investigation has been launched by the Cabinet office into the personal connections between Johnson and certain hedge fund managers. Has our loose lipped PM dropped a far bigger clanger than Darius Guppy and promised things he had no right to promise?
The gossip around Downing St says that several Johnson chickens are coming home to roost at the same time. "When sorrows come, they come not as single spies, but in battalions".
It feels like something very big is brewing and the Tories may be firmly in the cross hairs. Those expelled have nothing to lose by maintaining loyalty now, so the August massacre may be the first of Johnson's deep regrets.
So, yes, all MPs who voted against this deal own this. I will give the SNP and Liberal Democrats a pass because they have an alternative plan. Labour, for all their pompous and condescending blether, do not.
No, I haven't forgotten your views on Corbyn.
Quite aside from the fact it’s in the broader long-term political interests of both Labour and the Conservatives to move on from Brexit.
Others in his shadow cabinet just think trench warfare will destroy Brexit.
They are both being utterly short-sighted.
Yes, a combined Labour-Conservative negotiating team in Brussels would make the most sense, or at least a political panel to review the deal, but both sides don’t have the balls or bravery to lead on that, and back it up to the public.
Oh well.
They took it. They've broken it. They own it. They'll pay for it.
And that would have required very brave political leadership from both sides.
I wonder if any Resident’s Associations might be tempted to put up candidates at a General Election?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RtjDsCo6rxw
Although it was @Stuart_Dickson who was doing it on the las thread.
I've been using the ECML weekly for the last six months and often experience delays. Is the WCML a better bet?
For me this is now about finding a way to defeat polarisation, populism and cynical manipulation of popular opinion through tools like social media. This latest example of number 10 whipping up the mob and bending the law until it breaks and then crying to the ref, is what I am against. It must be defeated.
The number of people or MPs who really want to stop Brexit at all costs is about 1 in 5. Well over 500 MPs have voted for their preferred flavour of Brexit.
Why does a minority government think it has a divine right to determine the flavour of Brexit without any input from the parliamentary majority?
Not to mention then demonising the people whose votes they need to deliver the Brexit (which Boris claims they really want to do) as traitors. What rational person who needs someones vote does that? It is bonkers. It is not just about his method being disgusting, it is both disgusting and cannot achieve what he claims to want.
A PM willing to reach out, negotiate and compromise could achieve Brexit very quickly and maintain the fabric of society.
Which is bloody annoying if you are on one of the said other services.
*Stockpiling popcorn*
I hope OGH you will look at Labour MPs that were in seats that were strongly for Leave as well as Tory Mps in seats that were strongly for Remain
Boris Johnson isn't fit to be PM. Nor is Corbyn. But Corbyn is far left, whereas the PM's lunacy is ego-driven. It's also a lot easier to oust a Conservative leader than a Labour one.
Just one more complicating factor when trying to predict the next election.
It is more working class men who voted Leave leaving Labour than Tory Home Counties women who voted Remain leaving the Tories
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/sep/27/anxiety-mental-breakdowns-depression-uk-students
The idea has been investigated, a deal was negotiated based on the Leave campaign and put to Parliament, where it was roundly rejected by all sides as unacceptable.
The original idea of Leaving with the easiest deal in history has been shown to be a false prospectus. So we need to rethink.