Sadly it’s pretty clear this is no longer a decent country.
The definition of decent of course being having a Parliament that ignores the votes of 17 million people it seems and an electorate that accepts that without complaint
And not prepared to put that to the test with an election. Because that would be indecent.....
On thread, council by-elections are fine but rarely point to anything.
When the General Election comes, all those who voted Tory in 2015 and/or 2017 will have to decide which matters more to them
Remain in the EU and almost certainly have a Jeremy Corbyn government which will tax them out of being able to pay their mortgages and go on their 3 foreign fruit out of natural season in the UK for a while.
Vote Tory = get Tory
Vote Labour = get Labour Vote Liberal = get Labour Vote SNP/PC/Brexit/Green = get Labour
Labour cannot win a majority and at best will have a C&S deal with the Lib Dems and SNP which will remove most contentious items from Labour's policy.
Basically it's vote Tory - pray Operation Yellowhammer is worse than reality (in the sectors I know personally it underplays possible issues). or vote Labour / Lib Dem and not leave under No Deal.
Except that those of us who follow the issues may believe that Labour can't win a majority, but frankly things are so messy and unpredictable at the moment that it's impossible to be sure; and, in any event, the vast bulk of the population doesn't spend its time analysing the breakdown of the electorate or potential swing patterns in key marginal constituencies.
Fear of Corbyn and his acolytes is, barring a wholly unexpected coup in the Labour Party, bound to be a factor in people's voting intentions come the next election, and probably a more significant one than it was last time. Labour got away with very little scrutiny of its manifesto in 2017 because the prospect of it actually getting into Government was written off, due to the stupid opinion polls and the even more stupid journalists who gave them too much credence. This is unlikely to be the case next time around.
I don't think so. There will be big swings in all sorts of seats when the election comes (I expect spring), but very much dependent on what happens in October.
Tories will be wiped out if No Deal happens, merely humbled if May's Deal passes, and probably survive an extension IMO.
Precisely the opposite, if it is No Deal the Tories win a big majority, if the Tories extend again they collapse behind Labour, maybe even behind the Brexit Party too.
May's Deal probably produces another hung parliament with the Tories largest party if it still has the backstop
until HS2 is built the WCML is so congested it's hardly reliable either.
I've spent most of the past 40 years up and down the WCML. It's had its bad patches, but it hasn't had me anything worse than ten minutes later than planned at all this century.
Am I just lucky?
You must be the luckiest person alive. Very implausible.
I've been using the ECML weekly for the last six months and often experience delays. Is the WCML a better bet?
In one key aspect, yes. The four-track sections of the WCML has portals, whilst the four-track bits of the ECML has headspans.
When the ECML was electrified, it was done on the cheap (not necessarily a bad thing, but there are consequences). The overhead wires are hung from other wires:
But, the big advantage of a portal is that if there is a dewirement, it is limited to the one track that it occurs on. When it happens on the ECML, it is utter carnage as it brings the whole lot down.
The WCML has suffered recently from the new WMT timetable, which as @ydoethur rightly points out, has had a number of problems (basically getting trains to join up at New Street is a pain).
I wonder if any Resident’s Associations might be tempted to put up candidates at a General Election?
My mother has been a member of the Tory party for at least 4 decades. She voted for Johnson in the leadership, but is appalled at him deliberately misleading the Queen and suspending parliament.
The switch of Tory polling support to C2DE is going to be a tough one to sustain. The only post Brexit way to keep them on board is continued angry culture war stuff. That is why Brexit does not restore sanity to the country.
Sadly it’s pretty clear this is no longer a decent country.
The definition of decent of course being having a Parliament that ignores the votes of 17 million people it seems and an electorate that accepts that without complaint
And not prepared to put that to the test with an election. Because that would be indecent.....
But you had an election in 2017! What happens if you dont get the result you want this time? Best of three? Best of seventy five!!?
Mr. Jonathan, the problem that some on the right, who might otherwise vote Labour, have is that their leader is even worse.
Boris Johnson isn't fit to be PM. Nor is Corbyn. But Corbyn is far left, whereas the PM's lunacy is ego-driven. It's also a lot easier to oust a Conservative leader than a Labour one.
Just one more complicating factor when trying to predict the next election.
Any doubts about Johnson as far as I'm concerned are solely about his competence, trustworthiness and the legacy of his past actions in both his public and private life rather than his attitude to Brexit. "Lunacy" if it is necessary to drive Brexit through doesn't bother me.
On thread, council by-elections are fine but rarely point to anything
or
Leave the EU by voting Tory and have the inconvenience of having to stand for a wee while at customs when going on their 3 foreign holidays a year plus maybe not getting their favourite fruit out of natural season in the UK for a while.
Vote Tory = get Tory
Vote Labour = get Labour Vote Liberal = get Labour Vote SNP/PC/Brexit/Green = get Labour
Labour cannot win a majority and at best will have a C&S deal with the Lib Dems and SNP which will remove most contentious items from Labour's policy.
Basically it's vote Tory - pray Operation Yellowhammer is worse than reality (in the sectors I know personally it underplays possible issues). or vote Labour / Lib Dem and not leave under No Deal.
Except that those of us who follow the issues may believe that Labour can't win a majority, but frankly things are so messy and unpredictable at the moment that it's impossible to be sure; and, in any event, the vast bulk of the population doesn't spend its time analysing the breakdown of the electorate or potential swing patterns in key marginal constituencies.
Fear of Corbyn and his acolytes is, barring a wholly unexpected coup in the Labour Party, bound to be a factor in people's voting intentions come the next election, and probably a more significant one than it was last time. Labour got away with very little scrutiny of its manifesto in 2017 because the prospect of it actually getting into Government was written off, due to the stupid opinion polls and the even more stupid journalists who gave them too much credence. This is unlikely to be the case next time around.
I don't think so. There will be big swings in all sorts of seats when the election comes (I expect spring), but very much dependent on what happens in October.
Tories will be wiped out if No Deal happens, merely humbled if May's Deal passes, and probably survive an extension IMO.
Precisely the opposite, if it is No Deal the Tories win a big majority, if the Tories extend again they collapse behind Labour, maybe even behind the Brexit Party too.
May's Deal probably produces another hung parliament with the Tories largest party if it still has the backstop
Do you believe that anybody who says now that they will vote Conservative in the event of no deal may change their mind if the consequences of no deal are not exactly optimal?
On thread, council by-elections are fine but rarely point to anything.
When the General Election comes, all those who voted Tory in 2015 and/or 2017 will have to decide which matters more to them
Remain in the EU and almost certainly have a Jeremy Corbyn government which will tax them out of being able to pay their mortgages and go on their 3 foreign fruit out of natural season in the UK for a while.
Vote Tory = get Tory
Vote Labour = get Labour Vote Liberal = get Labour Vote SNP/PC/Brexit/Green = get Labour
Labour cannot win a majority and at best will have a C&S deal with the Lib Dems and SNP which will remove most contentious items from Labour's policy.
Basically it's vote Tory - pray Operation Yellowhammer is worse than reality (in the sectors I know personally it underplays possible issues). or vote Labour / Lib Dem and not leave under No Deal.
Except that those of us who follow the issues may believe that Labour can't win a majority, but frankly things are so messy and unpredictable at the moment that it's impossible to be sure; and, in any event, the vast bulk of the population doesn't spend its time analysing the breakdown of the electorate or potential swing patterns in key marginal constituencies.
Fear of Corbyn and his acolytes is, barring a wholly unexpected coup in the Labour Party, bound to be a factor in people's voting intentions come the next election, and probably a more significant one than it was last time. Labour got away with very little scrutiny of its manifesto in 2017 because the prospect of it actually getting into Government was written off, due to the stupid opinion polls and the even more stupid journalists who gave them too much credence. This is unlikely to be the case next time around.
I don't think so. There will be big swings in all sorts of seats when the election comes (I expect spring), but very much dependent on what happens in October.
Tories will be wiped out if No Deal happens, merely humbled if May's Deal passes, and probably survive an extension IMO.
Precisely the opposite, if it is No Deal the Tories win a big majority, if the Tories extend again they collapse behind Labour, maybe even behind the Brexit Party too.
May's Deal probably produces another hung parliament with the Tories largest party if it still has the backstop
The Commons didn't back May's deal. When she gave as much as she could (customs union on a permanent basis is a matter for the post-deal negotiations, not the transition agreement) they still didn't back her deal.
The Commons had the chance to vote for a second referendum in indicative votes and a majority were against.
Agreeing such a second referendum would probably get more support. But the Commons loathes Boris Johnson. Are they really going to back *anything* he puts forward?
On thread, council by-elections are fine but rarely point to anything.
When the General Election comes, all those who voted Tory in 2015 and/or 2017 will have to decide which matters more to them
Remain in the EU and almost certainly have a Jeremy Corbyn government which will tax them out of being able to pay their mortgages and go on their 3 foreign fruit out of natural season in the UK for a while.
Vote Tory = get Tory
Vote Labour = get Labour Vote Liberal = get Labour Vote SNP/PC/Brexit/Green = get Labour
Labour cannot win a majority and at best will have a C&S deal with the Lib Dems and SNP which will remove most contentious items from Labour's policy.
Basically it's vote Tory - pray Operation Yellowhammer is worse than reality (in the sectors I know personally it underplays possible issues). or vote Labour / Lib Dem and not leave under No Deal.
Except that those of us who follow the issues may believe that Labour
I don't think so. There will be big swings in all sorts of seats when the election comes (I expect spring), but very much dependent on what happens in October.
Tories will be wiped out if No Deal happens, merely humbled if May's Deal passes, and probably survive an extension IMO.
Precisely the opposite, if it is No Deal the Tories win a big majority, if the Tories extend again they collapse behind Labour, maybe even behind the Brexit Party too.
May's Deal probably produces another hung parliament with the Tories largest party if it still has the backstop
Nah, the polls will change after the event. Why would C2DE voters in the North and Midlands stick with the Tories after Brexit? There is nothing so ungrateful as voters.
On thread, council by-elections are fine but rarely point to anything
or
Leave the EU by voting Tory and have the inconvenience of having to stand for a wee while at customs when going on their 3 foreign holidays a year plus maybe not getting their favourite fruit out of natural season in the UK for a while.
Vote Tory = get Tory
Vote Labour = get Labour Vote Liberal = get Labour Vote SNP/PC/Brexit/Green = get Labour
Labour cannot win a majority and at best will have a C&S deal with the Lib Dems and SNP which will remove most contentious items from Labour's policy.
Basically it's vote Tory - pray Operation Yellowhammer is worse than reality (in the sectors I know personally it underplays possible issues). or vote Labour / Lib Dem and not leave under No Deal.
Except that those of us who follow the issues may believe that Labour can't win a majority, but frankly things are so messy and unpredictable at the moment that it's impossible to be sure; and, in any event, the vast bulk of the population doesn't spend its time analysing the breakdown of the electorate or potential swing ound.
I don't think so. There will be big swings in all sorts of seats when the election comes (I expect spring), but very much dependent on what happens in October.
Tories will be wiped out if No Deal happens, merely humbled if May's Deal passes, and probably survive an extension IMO.
Precisely the opposite, if it is No Deal the Tories win a big majority, if the Tories extend again they collapse behind Labour, maybe even behind the Brexit Party too.
May's Deal probably produces another hung parliament with the Tories largest party if it still has the backstop
Do you believe that anybody who says now that they will vote Conservative in the event of no deal may change their mind if the consequences of no deal are not exactly optimal?
I believe the Tories will remain the main right of centre party no matter what happens with No Deal with a good chance of a majority, if the Tories extend again the Tories have zero chance of a majority and I believe the Tories may well go extinct with the Brexit Party overtaking them as the main party of the right.
Those are the stakes and why fanatical diehard Remainers like Foxy must be ignored as they do not understand the fury of Leavers at all
The interesting thing is that "nice middle class Conservative women" in the Home Counties are leaving the party en bloc. The ripe language and the rage that Cummings is trying to capitalize on is alienating at least a third of the Tory core vote. There are huge swings in Con/LD marginals.
More interesting still is why there is this sense of almost panic on the Tory front bench: error after error and not only no contrition but doubling down on the language and attitude that alienate not only Conservative women, but most of the middle class.
Did Rachel give away more than she intended? Is there in fact some much bigger financial scandal than Arcuri (which already looks pretty terrible)?
An ethics investigation has been launched by the Cabinet office into the personal connections between Johnson and certain hedge fund managers. Has our loose lipped PM dropped a far bigger clanger than Darius Guppy and promised things he had no right to promise?
The gossip around Downing St says that several Johnson chickens are coming home to roost at the same time. "When sorrows come, they come not as single spies, but in battalions".
It feels like something very big is brewing and the Tories may be firmly in the cross hairs. Those expelled have nothing to lose by maintaining loyalty now, so the August massacre may be the first of Johnson's deep regrets.
Boris Johnson repels women of a certain age, even those who you might think would be natural supporters of a Conservative party committed to delivering Leave. I'm sure that his antics on Wednesday night will have done him well with Brexity men. With women, I wonder.
The numbers are noisy on gender support. Three YouGovs ago the Tories had 50% more support from men than women, but in the latest poll it is equal. Often Labour and Lib Dems have more support from men than women too.
The only thing that seems certain is that more women say they don't know who they will vote for than men.
Sadly it’s pretty clear this is no longer a decent country.
The definition of decent of course being having a Parliament that ignores the votes of 17 million people it seems and an electorate that accepts that without complaint
And not prepared to put that to the test with an election. Because that would be indecent.....
But you had an election in 2017! What happens if you dont get the result you want this time? Best of three? Best of seventy five!!?
There's nothing to stop remainer MPs forming a government, revoking A50 and governing until June 2022. That would be democratic. Whether or not it would be a good idea or not is another matter.
I wonder if any Resident’s Associations might be tempted to put up candidates at a General Election?
My mother has been a member of the Tory party for at least 4 decades. She voted for Johnson in the leadership, but is appalled at him deliberately misleading the Queen and suspending parliament.
The switch of Tory polling support to C2DE is going to be a tough one to sustain. The only post Brexit way to keep them on board is continued angry culture war stuff. That is why Brexit does not restore sanity to the country.
The Tories still lead with both middle class ABC1s and working class C2DEs with Yougov this week, if the Tories extend again they will lead with neither
Sadly it’s pretty clear this is no longer a decent country.
The definition of decent of course being having a Parliament that ignores the votes of 17 million people it seems and an electorate that accepts that without complaint
And not prepared to put that to the test with an election. Because that would be indecent.....
Boris Johnson repels women of a certain age, even those who you might think would be natural supporters of a Conservative party committed to delivering Leave. I'm sure that his antics on Wednesday night will have done him well with Brexity men. With women, I wonder.
From today's Times.
Polls show Boris Johnson has a women problem.
Boris Johnson is under pressure to tone down his rhetoric after polling showed his popularity falling among women.
Female voters are more likely than men to describe Mr Johnson as “dislikeable” and “out of touch”, and much less likely to think he would make the best prime minister....
..It follows two days of angry clashes in the Commons, with female MPs accusing the prime minister of using violent rhetoric.
A YouGov poll carried out before the parliamentary row on Wednesday night showed how Mr Johnson’s popularity has been hardest hit among women. Almost half of women (47 per cent) described the PM as “dislikeable”, up seven points since the end of August, and five points higher than among men.
Some 51 per cent of women said he was incompetent, up nine points from the end of August. Among men it was up six points to 50 per cent.
While 25 per cent of men described Mr Johnson as honest, just 19 per cent of women agreed. Asked who would make the best prime minister, Mr Johnson was backed by 44 per cent of men and just 35 per cent of women....
...A snap poll carried out by YouGov in the wake of the row found 71 per cent of men believed the prime minister “has a duty to try and create a safe environment in which MPs work”, rising to 76 per cent among women.
On thread, council by-elections are fine but rarely point to anything
or
Leave the EU by voting Tory and have the inconvenience of having to stand for a wee while at customs when going on their 3 foreign holidays a year plus maybe not getting their favourite fruit out of natural season in the UK for a while.
Vote Tory = get Tory
Vote Labour = get Labour Vote Liberal = get Labour Vote SNP/PC/Brexit/Green = get Labour
Labour cannot win a majority and at best will have a C&S deal with the Lib Dems and SNP which will remove most contentious items from Labour's policy.
Basically it's vote Tory - pray Operation Yellowhammer is worse than reality (in the sectors I know personally it underplays possible issues). or vote Labour / Lib Dem and not leave under No Deal.
Except that those of us who follow the issues may believe that Labour can't win a majority, but frankly things are so messy and unpredictable at the moment that it's impossible to be sure; and, in any event, the vast bulk of the population doesn't spend its time analysing the breakdown of the electorate or potential swing ound.
I don't think so. There will be big swings in all sorts of seats when the election comes (I expect spring), but very much dependent on what happens in October.
Tories will be wiped out if No Deal happens, merely humbled if May's Deal passes, and probably survive an extension IMO.
Precisely the opposite, if it is No Deal the Tories win a big majority, if the Tories extend again they collapse behind Labour, maybe even behind the Brexit Party too.
May's Deal probably produces another hung parliament with the Tories largest party if it still has the backstop
Do you believe that anybody who says now that they will vote Conservative in the event of no deal may change their mind if the consequences of no deal are not exactly optimal?
I believe the Tories will remain the main right of centre party no matter what happens with No Deal with a good chance of a majority, if the Tories extend again the Tories have zero chance of a majority and I believe the Tories may well go extinct with the Brexit Party overtaking them as the main party of the right.
Those are the stakes and why fanatical diehard Remainers like Foxy must be ignored as they do not understand the fury of Leavers at all
Well you could just join TBP then all your mates would be there.
Sadly it’s pretty clear this is no longer a decent country.
The definition of decent of course being having a Parliament that ignores the votes of 17 million people it seems and an electorate that accepts that without complaint
The votes of 17 million people have not been ignored. Pretty well nothing else other than Brexit has been discussed for three years.
The idea has been investigated, a deal was negotiated based on the Leave campaign and put to Parliament, where it was roundly rejected by all sides as unacceptable.
The original idea of Leaving with the easiest deal in history has been shown to be a false prospectus. So we need to rethink.
No fanatical die hard Remainers like you Alistair have refused to accept the Leave vote from day 1 and even you have accepted the Leave win required new immigration controls, you will clearly stop at nothing to stop Brexit being delivered, Leavers must now stop at nothing to ensure Brexit is delivered
Genius Cummings has seen all his recent cunning plans fail spectacularly and now appears to be intent on pissing off the body needed to pass the deal he regards as easy to get. He certainly appears to be operating on a level very different to everyone else.
He is a clown, despite fan boys on here spouting how clever he was , reality points a different picture. Just another donkey that got lucky once. Thicker than one of Jack's famous pies and not near as tasty.
On thread, council by-elections are fine but rarely point to anything.
When the General Election comes, all those who voted Tory in 2015 and/or 2017 will have to decide which matters more to them
Remain in the EU and almost certainly have a Jeremy Corbyn government which will tax them out of being able to pay their mortgages and go on their 3 foreign fruit out of natural season in the UK for a while.
Vote Tory = get Tory
Vote Labour = get Labour Vote Liberal = get Labour Vote SNP/PC/Brexit/Green = get Labour
Labour cannot win a majority and at best will have a C&S deal with the Lib Dems and SNP which will remove most contentious items from Labour's policy.
Basically it's vote Tory - pray Operation Yellowhammer is worse than reality (in the sectors I know personally it underplays possible issues). or vote Labour / Lib Dem and not leave under No Deal.
Except that those of us who follow the issues may believe that Labour
I don't think so. There will be big swings in all sorts of seats when the election comes (I expect spring), but very much dependent on what happens in October.
Tories will be wiped out if No Deal happens, merely humbled if May's Deal passes, and probably survive an extension IMO.
Precisely the opposite, if it is No Deal the Tories win a big majority, if the Tories extend again they collapse behind Labour, maybe even behind the Brexit Party too.
May's Deal probably produces another hung parliament with the Tories largest party if it still has the backstop
Nah, the polls will change after the event. Why would C2DE voters in the North and Midlands stick with the Tories after Brexit? There is nothing so ungrateful as voters.
Even Cameron won C2s in 2015, extend again the Tories would never win them again
On thread, council by-elections are fine but rarely point to anything
or
Leave the EU by voting Tory and have the inconvenience of having to stand for a wee while at customs when going on their 3 foreign holidays a year plus maybe not getting their favourite fruit out of natural season in the UK for a while.
Vote Tory = get Tory
Vote Labour = get Labour Vote Liberal = get Labour Vote SNP/PC/Brexit/Green = get Labour
Labour cannot win a majority and at best will have a C&S deal with the Lib Dems and SNP which will remove most contentious items from Labour's policy.
Basically it's vote Tory - pray Operation Yellowhammer is worse than reality (in the sectors I know personally it underplays possible issues). or vote Labour / Lib Dem and not leave under No Deal.
Except that those of us who follow the issues may believe that Labour can't win a majority, but frankly things are so messy and unpredictable at the moment that it's impossible to be sure; and, in any event, the vast bulk of the population doesn't spend its time analysing the breakdown of the electorate or potential swing ound.
I don't think so. There will be big swings in all sorts of seats when the election comes (I expect spring), but very much dependent on what happens in October.
Tories will be wiped out if No Deal happens, merely humbled if May's Deal passes, and probably survive an extension IMO.
Precisely the opposite, if it is No Deal the Tories win a big majority, if the Tories extend again they collapse behind Labour, maybe even behind the Brexit Party too.
May's Deal probably produces another hung parliament with the Tories largest party if it still has the backstop
Do you believe that anybody who says now that they will vote Conservative in the event of no deal may change their mind if the consequences of no deal are not exactly optimal?
I believe the Tories will remain the main right of centre party no matter what happens with No Deal with a good chance of a majority, if the Tories extend again the Tories have zero chance of a majority and I believe the Tories may well go extinct with the Brexit Party overtaking them as the main party of the right.
Those are the stakes and why fanatical diehard Remainers like Foxy must be ignored as they do not understand the fury of Leavers at all
The fury of Leavers is a deliberate political act. Boris is whipping up the mob to get his narrow interpretation of Brexit through.
And fantastic news for the Liberal Democrats in Scotland: the latest ComRes split shows Jo Swinson’s team more than doubling their support, to 16%. This ought to be enough for them to re-take NE Fife and comfortably hold their 4 current seats.
SNP will be pleased too. And SLab relieved to be back in 2nd spot. albeit a very distant 2nd.
However, the party formerly known as “Ruth Davidson’s Candidates” appear to be in freefall: 5th place, on just 10% of the vote. No wonder Ruth did not want her reputation tarnished by The Clown.
HYUFD was bigging up YouGov yesterday, which had the SCon’s still above 20%, just. But none of the other pollsters are remotely as comforting for spluttering British nationalists. We await the first full-sample Scottish VI poll since Ruth’s resignation, but all indications are that it will be very grim indeed for Tories.
I wonder if any Resident’s Associations might be tempted to put up candidates at a General Election?
My mother has been a member of the Tory party for at least 4 decades. She voted for Johnson in the leadership, but is appalled at him deliberately misleading the Queen and suspending parliament.
The switch of Tory polling support to C2DE is going to be a tough one to sustain. The only post Brexit way to keep them on board is continued angry culture war stuff. That is why Brexit does not restore sanity to the country.
Yes, in some ways the shift in England over the last few years echoes the shift that happened (in microcosm) what happened in Northern Ireland when the DUP usurped the UUP as the main political voice of loyalists/the right. The difference is that it was a switch of parties and DUP politicians generally reflected the voters that switched to them.
The characteristics of Conservative Party support is changing, but this is not (currently anyway) reflected in the backgrounds of Tory MPs and leadership. The latter are using the former (or dependent on the former, depending on your viewpoint) to get what they want, but post Brexit they will quite likely struggle to maintain support whilst the disconnect in background and understanding persists.
Whenever you here a Southern Tory going on about the voters of the Midlands/north feeling betrayed/let down, how many of them do you think have really taken the time to delve deeply into the underlying problems? It’s mostly just cliches.
On thread, council by-elections are fine but rarely point to anything.
When the General Election comes, all those who voted Tory in 2015 and/or 2017 will have to decide which matters more to them
Remain in the EU and almost certainly have a Jeremy Corbyn government which will tax them out of being able to pay their mortgages and go on their 3 foreign fruit out of natural season in the UK for a while.
Vote Tory = get Tory
Vote Labour = get Labour Vote Liberal = get Labour Vote SNP/PC/Brexit/Green = get Labour
Labour cannot win a majority and at best will have a C&S deal with the Lib Dems and SNP which will remove most contentious items from Labour's policy.
Basically it's vote Tory - pray Operation Yellowhammer is worse than reality (in the sectors I know personally it underplays possible issues). or vote Labour / Lib Dem and not leave under No Deal.
Except that those of us who follow the issues may believe that Labour
I don't think so. There will be big swings in all sorts of seats when the election comes (I expect spring), but very much dependent on what happens in October.
Tories will be wiped out if No Deal happens, merely humbled if May's Deal passes, and probably survive an extension IMO.
Precisely the opposite, if it is No Deal the Tories win a big majority, if the Tories extend again they collapse behind Labour, maybe even behind the Brexit Party too.
May's Deal probably produces another hung parliament with the Tories largest party if it still has the backstop
Nah, the polls will change after the event. Why would C2DE voters in the North and Midlands stick with the Tories after Brexit? There is nothing so ungrateful as voters.
Even Cameron won C2s in 2015, extend again the Tories would never win them again
It seems that the Tory party is your primary concern.
And fantastic news for the Liberal Democrats in Scotland: the latest ComRes split shows Jo Swinson’s team more than doubling their support, to 16%. This ought to be enough for them to re-take NE Fife and comfortably hold their 4 current seats.
Stu and his Scottish subsamples LOL.
Total numbers of Scots sampled to give these results: total = 101.
Total numbers expressing an intention to Vote Lib Dem after exclusion of DK etc ... er, 12 afaics - increased from what would around 6.
That'll be reliable :-) What's the error margin, Stu?
The interesting thing is that "nice middle class Conservative women" in the Home Counties are leaving the party en bloc. The ripe language and the rage that Cummings is trying to capitalize on is alienating at least a third of the Tory core vote. There are huge swings in Con/LD marginals.
More interesting still is why there is this sense of almost panic on the Tory front bench: error after error and not only no contrition but doubling down on the language and attitude that alienate not only Conservative women, but most of the middle class.
Did Rachel give away more than she intended? Is there in fact some much bigger financial scandal than Arcuri (which already looks pretty terrible)?
An ethics investigation has been launched by the Cabinet office into the personal connections between Johnson and certain hedge fund managers. Has our loose lipped PM dropped a far bigger clanger than Darius Guppy and promised things he had no right to promise?
The gossip around Downing St says that several Johnson chickens are coming home to roost at the same time. "When sorrows come, they come not as single spies, but in battalions".
It feels like something very big is brewing and the Tories may be firmly in the cross hairs. Those expelled have nothing to lose by maintaining loyalty now, so the August massacre may be the first of Johnson's deep regrets.
Boris Johnson repels women of a certain age, even those who you might think would be natural supporters of a Conservative party committed to delivering Leave. I'm sure that his antics on Wednesday night will have done him well with Brexity men. With women, I wonder.
The numbers are noisy on gender support. Three YouGovs ago the Tories had 50% more support from men than women, but in the latest poll it is equal. Often Labour and Lib Dems have more support from men than women too.
The only thing that seems certain is that more women say they don't know who they will vote for than men.
It has been an observable point for years that women are much more likely to be in the not decided group than men in opinion polls. They do vote in similar numbers though.
It may well be that women are more likely to wait for the campaign and manifestos before committing, or merely a reticence to answer.
"Will not say Women" are a key demographic, and not one likely to break for BoZo.
I wonder if any Resident’s Associations might be tempted to put up candidates at a General Election?
My mother has been a member of the Tory party for at least 4 decades. She voted for Johnson in the leadership, but is appalled at him deliberately misleading the Queen and suspending parliament.
The switch of Tory polling support to C2DE is going to be a tough one to sustain. The only post Brexit way to keep them on board is continued angry culture war stuff. That is why Brexit does not restore sanity to the country.
Yes, in some ways the shift in England over the last few years echoes the shift that happened (in microcosm) what happened in Northern Ireland when the DUP usurped the UUP as the main political voice of loyalists/the right. The difference is that it was a switch of parties and DUP politicians generally reflected the voters that switched to them.
The characteristics of Conservative Party support is changing, but this is not (currently anyway) reflected in the backgrounds of Tory MPs and leadership. The latter are using the former (or dependent on the former, depending on your viewpoint) to get what they want, but post Brexit they will quite likely struggle to maintain support whilst the disconnect in background and understanding persists.
Whenever you here a Southern Tory going on about the voters of the Midlands/north feeling betrayed/let down, how many of them do you think have really taken the time to delve deeply into the underlying problems? It’s mostly just cliches.
Last paragraph - yes, I think that's true. But it's no different to many Labour politicians and commentators.
On thread, council by-elections are fine but rarely point to anything
or
Leave the EU by voting Tory and have the inconvenience of having to stand for a wee while at customs when going on their 3 foreign holidays a year plus maybe not getting their favourite fruit out of natural season in the UK for a while.
Vote Tory = get Tory
Vote Labour = get Labour Vote Liberal = get Labour Vote SNP/PC/Brexit/Green = get Labour
Labour cannot win a majority and at best will have a C&S deal with the Lib Dems and SNP which will remove most contentious items from Labour's policy.
Basically it's vote Tory - pray Operation Yellowhammer is worse than reality (in the sectors I know personally it underplays possible issues). or vote Labour / Lib Dem and not leave under No Deal.
Except that those of us who follow the issues may believe that Labour can't win a majority, but frankly things are so messy and unpredictable at the moment that it's impossible to be sure; and, in any event, the vast bulk of the population doesn't spend its time analysing the breakdown of the electorate or potential swing ound.
I don't think so. There will be big swings in all sorts of seats when the election comes (I expect spring), but very much dependent on what happens in October.
Tories will be wiped out if No Deal happens, merely humbled if May's Deal passes, and probably survive an extension IMO.
Precisely the opposite, if it is No Deal the Tories win a big majority, if the Tories extend again they collapse behind Labour, maybe even behind the Brexit Party too.
May's Deal probably produces another hung parliament with the Tories largest party if it still has the backstop
Do you believe that anybody who says now that they will vote Conservative in the event of no deal may change their mind if the consequences of no deal are not exactly optimal?
I believe the Tories will remain the main right of centre party no matter what happens with No Deal with a good chance of a majority, if the Tories extend again the Tories have zero chance of a majority and I believe the Tories may well go extinct with the Brexit Party overtaking them as the main party of the right.
Those are the stakes and why fanatical diehard Remainers like Foxy must be ignored as they do not understand the fury of Leavers at all
Sadly it’s pretty clear this is no longer a decent country.
The definition of decent of course being having a Parliament that ignores the votes of 17 million people it seems and an electorate that accepts that without complaint
The votes of 17 million people have not been ignored. Pretty well nothing else other than Brexit has been discussed for three years.
The idea has been investigated, a deal was negotiated based on the Leave campaign and put to Parliament, where it was roundly rejected by all sides as unacceptable.
The original idea of Leaving with the easiest deal in history has been shown to be a false prospectus. So we need to rethink.
No fanatical die hard Remainers like you Alistair have refused to accept the Leave vote from day 1 and even you have accepted the Leave win required new immigration controls, you will clearly stop at nothing to stop Brexit being delivered, Leavers must now stop at nothing to ensure Brexit is delivered
Will you stop making up things about me? I have consistently said that I would have voted for the deal had I had the option.
So stop lying. An apology would be in order at this point.
And fantastic news for the Liberal Democrats in Scotland: the latest ComRes split shows Jo Swinson’s team more than doubling their support, to 16%. This ought to be enough for them to re-take NE Fife and comfortably hold their 4 current seats.
SNP will be pleased too. And SLab relieved to be back in 2nd spot. albeit a very distant 2nd.
However, the party formerly known as “Ruth Davidson’s Candidates” appear to be in freefall: 5th place, on just 10% of the vote. No wonder Ruth did not want her reputation tarnished by The Clown.
HYUFD was bigging up YouGov yesterday, which had the SCon’s still above 20%, just. But none of the other pollsters are remotely as comforting for spluttering British nationalists. We await the first full-sample Scottish VI poll since Ruth’s resignation, but all indications are that it will be very grim indeed for Tories.
The grim news is for the SNP on just 35% and 40% with Yougov and Comres ie below or barely above 2017 despite Brexit and Boris
LOL, they will be heartbroken on about 50 seats while Tories have 1 or 2
I think you will see a major difference on how tories vote for Westminster and Edinburgh. Ruth Davidson can retain a strong group of MSPs but the Tory MPs are gone.
Sadly it’s pretty clear this is no longer a decent country.
The definition of decent of course being having a Parliament that ignores the votes of 17 million people it seems and an electorate that accepts that without complaint
And not prepared to put that to the test with an election. Because that would be indecent.....
But you had an election in 2017! What happens if you dont get the result you want this time? Best of three? Best of seventy five!!?
There's nothing to stop remainer MPs forming a government, revoking A50 and governing until June 2022. That would be democratic. Whether or not it would be a good idea or not is another matter.
Really? I thought the prevailing view was that it wouldn’t be (Liberal) democratic even if done after securing a majority on a manifesto commitment in a future General Election?
I believe the Tories will remain the main right of centre party no matter what happens with No Deal with a good chance of a majority, if the Tories extend again the Tories have zero chance of a majority and I believe the Tories may well go extinct with the Brexit Party overtaking them as the main party of the right.
Those are the stakes and why fanatical diehard Remainers like Foxy must be ignored as they do not understand the fury of Leavers at all
I don't think I'm alone in thinking that when it comes to fanaticism, you lead the way. The ghastly contortions you perform to defend your party when they've made obvious mistakes are fascinating.
Sadly it’s pretty clear this is no longer a decent country.
The definition of decent of course being having a Parliament that ignores the votes of 17 million people it seems and an electorate that accepts that without complaint
And not prepared to put that to the test with an election. Because that would be indecent.....
But you had an election in 2017! What happens if you dont get the result you want this time? Best of three? Best of seventy five!!?
I suspect if there is another hung Parliament then yes, it will be best of three, or five, or seven, until we have a Parliament that the voters like the look of.
Sadly it’s pretty clear this is no longer a decent country.
The definition of decent of course being having a Parliament that ignores the votes of 17 million people it seems and an electorate that accepts that without complaint
And not prepared to put that to the test with an election. Because that would be indecent.....
But you had an election in 2017! What happens if you dont get the result you want this time? Best of three? Best of seventy five!!?
There's nothing to stop remainer MPs forming a government, revoking A50 and governing until June 2022. That would be democratic. Whether or not it would be a good idea or not is another matter.
Really? I thought the prevailing view was that it wouldn’t be (Liberal) democratic even if done after securing a majority on a manifesto commitment in a future General Election?
That's definitely not my view. I suppose there might be a legal challenge if they did it before an election, but if they have a majority in the Commons that ought not to be an issue.
Obviously the risk of it getting overturned - without the triggering of A50 - after the 2022 election would be there.
An interesting line of questioning by Nick Robinson to a Tory Cabinet Minister 'Is it reasonable for the Prime Minister to talk about 'surrender' to the likes of Rory Stewart who served their country with distinction in Afghanistan and Iraq" (implied..... while he was bonking his way through a succession of floozies while on official business)
Not really, the Tories had a still huge 14% lead in the South over the LDs yesterday with Yougov but in the North were just 1% behind Labour and in the Midlands and Wales had a 10% lead over Labour.
It is more working class men who voted Leave leaving Labour than Tory Home Counties women who voted Remain leaving the Tories
Honestly HYUFD, you must, surely, realise that a "huge 14%" over a party who were nowhere just two years ago is going to lead to Conservative seat losses.
Let's take your part of the world. I'm guessing that the Conservatives have more than a 14% lead in Epping Forest. Let's say Epping Forest goes 60% Con, 15% Brexit, 10% Labour, 10% Lib Dem, 5% other. That sounds finger-in-the-air plausible to me. And there are plenty of Epping Forests in the South-East.
So in order for 14% to be true across YouGov's "Rest of South" (i.e. not London), that 50% Conservative lead (over the Lib Dems) in Epping Forest has to be balanced out by some pretty good Lib Dem numbers elsewhere.
Those good Lib Dem numbers did not exist in GE2017. They just didn't. The Lib Dems won just three seats in "Rest of South" at GE2017 (OxWAB, Eastbourne, Bath). The Conservatives won cartloads of seats.
Any halfway sensible projection (or even Electoral Calculus) will show you that a Con lead of just 14% over the Lib Dems means a lot of GE2017 Conservative voters have left the party.
On thread, council by-elections are fine but rarely point to anything
or
Leave the EU by voting Tory and have the inconvenience of having to stand for a wee while at customs when going on their 3 foreign holidays a year plus maybe not getting their favourite fruit out of natural season in the UK for a while.
Vote Tory = get Tory
Vote Labour = get Labour Vote Liberal = get Labour Vote SNP/PC/Brexit/Green = get Labour
Labour cannot win a majority and at best will have a C&S deal with the Lib Dems and SNP which will remove most contentious items from Labour's policy.
Basically it's vote Tory - pray Operation Yellowhammer is worse than reality (in the sectors I know personally it underplays possible issues). or vote Labour / Lib Dem and not leave under No Deal.
Except that those of us who follow the issues may believe that Labour can't win a majority, but frankly things are so messy and unpredictable at the moment that it's impossible to be sure; and, in any event, the vast bulk of the population doesn't spend its time analysing the breakdown of the electorate or potential swing ound.
I don't think so. There will be big swings in all sorts of seats when the election comes (I expect spring), but very much dependent on what happens in October.
Tories will be wiped out if No Deal happens, merely humbled if May's Deal passes, and probably survive an extension IMO.
May's Deal probably produces another hung parliament with the Tories largest party if it still has the backstop
Do you believe that anybody who says now that they will vote Conservative in the event of no deal may change their mind if the consequences of no deal are not exactly optimal?
I believe the Tories will remain the main right of centre party no matter what happens with No Deal with a good chance of a majority, if the Tories extend again the Tories have zero chance of a majority and I believe the Tories may well go extinct with the Brexit Party overtaking them as the main party of the right.
Those are the stakes and why fanatical diehard Remainers like Foxy must be ignored as they do not understand the fury of Leavers at all
Well you could just join TBP then all your mates would be there.
Yep, not sure what HYUFD’s objection to a BXP Government is. It would be interesting to know where he disagrees with them.
Sadly it’s pretty clear this is no longer a decent country.
The definition of decent of course being having a Parliament that ignores the votes of 17 million people it seems and an electorate that accepts that without complaint
The votes of 17 million people have not been ignored. Pretty well nothing else other than Brexit has been discussed for three years.
The idea has been investigated, a deal was negotiated based on the Leave campaign and put to Parliament, where it was roundly rejected by all sides as unacceptable.
The original idea of Leaving with the easiest deal in history has been shown to be a false prospectus. So we need to rethink.
No fanatical die hard Remainers like you Alistair have refused to accept the Leave vote from day 1 and even you have accepted the Leave win required new immigration controls, you will clearly stop at nothing to stop Brexit being delivered, Leavers must now stop at nothing to ensure Brexit is delivered
Will you stop making up things about me? I have consistently said that I would have voted for the deal had I had the option.
So stop lying. An apology would be in order at this point.
I too am not a "die-hard Remainer". For 2 years after the 2016 vote I supported a Hard Brexit, only shifting to a #peoplesvote in 2018.
I am fairly relaxed about any outcome though. I have the most secure of jobs, a secure pension and have hedged my investments well against No Deal.
On thread, council by-elections are fine but rarely point to anything
or
Leave the EU by voting Tory and have the inconvenience of having to stand for a wee while at customs when going on their 3 foreign holidays a year plus maybe not getting their favourite fruit out of natural season in the UK for a while.
Vote Tory = get Tory
Vote Labour = get Labour Vote Liberal = get Labour Vote SNP/PC/Brexit/Green = get Labour
Labour cannot win a majority and at best will have a C&S deal with the Lib Dems and SNP which will remove most contentious items from Labour's policy.
Basically it's vote Tory - pray Operation Yellowhammer is worse than reality (in the sectors I know personally it underplays possible issues). or vote Labour / Lib Dem and not leave under No Deal.
Except that those of us who follow the issues may believe that Labour can't win a majority, but frankly things are so messy and unpredictable at the moment that it's impossible to be sure; and, in any event, the vast bulk of the population doesn't spend its time analysing the breakdown of the electorate or potential swing ound.
I don't think so. There will be big swings in all sorts of seats when the election comes (I expect spring), but very much dependent on what happens in October.
Tories will be wiped out if No Deal happens, merely humbled if May's Deal passes, and probably survive an extension IMO.
Precisely the opposite, if it is No Deal the Tories win a big majority, if the Tories extend again they collapse behind Labour, maybe even behind the Brexit Party too.
May's Deal probably produces another hung parliament with the Tories largest party if it still has the backstop
Do you believe that anybody who says now that they will vote Conservative in the event of no deal may change their mind if the consequences of no deal are not exactly optimal?
ories may well go extinct with the Brexit Party overtaking them as the main party of the right.
Those are the stakes and why fanatical diehard Remainers like Foxy must be ignored as they do not understand the fury of Leavers at all
The fury of Leavers is a deliberate political act. Boris is whipping up the mob to get his narrow interpretation of Brexit through.
Fairly obvious. and a tactic as old as democracy itself.
Sadly it’s pretty clear this is no longer a decent country.
The definition of decent of course being having a Parliament that ignores the votes of 17 million people it seems and an electorate that accepts that without complaint
And not prepared to put that to the test with an election. Because that would be indecent.....
But you had an election in 2017! What happens if you dont get the result you want this time? Best of three? Best of seventy five!!?
I suspect if there is another hung Parliament then yes, it will be best of three, or five, or seven, until we have a Parliament that the voters like the look of.
Same applies to the referendum. The voters no longer like the look of Leave. Time to confirm or reverse Brexit.
Sadly it’s pretty clear this is no longer a decent country.
The definition of decent of course being having a Parliament that ignores the votes of 17 million people it seems and an electorate that accepts that without complaint
And not prepared to put that to the test with an election. Because that would be indecent.....
But you had an election in 2017! What happens if you dont get the result you want this time? Best of three? Best of seventy five!!?
I suspect if there is another hung Parliament then yes, it will be best of three, or five, or seven, until we have a Parliament that the voters like the look of.
If was the "Will of the People" in May 2017 to elect a hung parliament, in large part to restrain an overly autocratic executive. I think it highly likely they will do so again.
Sadly it’s pretty clear this is no longer a decent country.
The definition of decent of course being having a Parliament that ignores the votes of 17 million people it seems and an electorate that accepts that without complaint
And not prepared to put that to the test with an election. Because that would be indecent.....
But you had an election in 2017! What happens if you dont get the result you want this time? Best of three? Best of seventy five!!?
I suspect if there is another hung Parliament then yes, it will be best of three, or five, or seven, until we have a Parliament that the voters like the look of.
You mean a Parliament that a largish minority of voters like the look of. Might I hazard a guess that this nice looking Parliament would accord with your own idea of legislative beauty?
On thread, council by-elections are fine but rarely point to anything
or
Leave the EU by voting Tory and have the inconvenience of having to stand for a wee while at customs when going on their 3 foreign holidays a year plus maybe not getting their favourite fruit out of natural season in the UK for a while.
Vote Tory = get Tory
Vote Labour = get Labour Vote Liberal = get Labour Vote SNP/PC/Brexit/Green = get Labour
Labour cannot win a majority and at best will have a C&S deal with the Lib Dems and SNP which will remove most contentious items from Labour's policy.
Basically it's vote Tory - pray Operation Yellowhammer is worse than reality (in the sectors I know personally it underplays possible issues). or vote Labour / Lib Dem and not leave under No Deal.
Except that those of us who follow tn of the electorate or potential swing ound.
I don't think so. There will be big swings in all sorts of seats when the election comes (I expect spring), but very much dependent on what happens in October.
Tories will be wiped out if No Deal happens, merely humbled if May's Deal passes, and probably survive an extension IMO.
Precisely the opposite, if it is No Deal the Tories win a big majority, if the Tories extend again they collapse behind Labour, maybe even behind the Brexit Party too.
May's Deal probably produces another hung parliament with the Tories largest party if it still has the backstop
Do you believe that anybody who says now that they will vote Conservative in the event of no deal may change their mind if the consequences of no deal are not exactly optimal?
I believe the Tories will remain the main right of centre party no matter what happens with No Deal with a good chance of a majority, if the Tories extend again the Tories have zero chance of a majority and I believe the Tories may well go extinct with the Brexit Party overtaking them as the main party of the right.
Those are the stakes and why fanatical diehard Remainers like Foxy must be ignored as they do not understand the fury of Leavers at all
But you don't understand the fury of Leavers any more than you understand the fervour of Momentum activists.
Because you are neither. You are a remainer. A die hard remainer, in the vernacular.
Sadly it’s pretty clear this is no longer a decent country.
The definition of decent of course being having a Parliament that ignores the votes of 17 million people it seems and an electorate that accepts that without complaint
And not prepared to put that to the test with an election. Because that would be indecent.....
But you had an election in 2017! What happens if you dont get the result you want this time? Best of three? Best of seventy five!!?
I suspect if there is another hung Parliament then yes, it will be best of three, or five, or seven, until we have a Parliament that the voters like the look of.
If was the "Will of the People" in May 2017 to elect a hung parliament, in large part to restrain an overly autocratic executive. I think it highly likely they will do so again.
Also because we are a divided country, there is no getting away from that. Our choices are to deepen the divide or try and work together to accept something that may not be our first preference but is the fewest peoples last preference.
People calling for further division, on both sides, are choosing the wrong path.
I wasn't aware that Labour transphobia was a thing until now.
It's not transphobia that troubles Labour, it's the nasty, borderline violent struggle between radical feminists ("TERFs") and militant trans rights activists.
They hate each other the same way extreme Marxist groupuscules hate each other.
What a charming place the Left has become. And now their lunacy spreads everywhere...
The main obstacle to any deal has been that Jezza isn't that bothered about the EU. He craves power and little else. He would have whipped the Labour party to accept Mrs May's deal if had didn't have the taint of the Tory party about it. He feared them taking credit for it.
That means he'll vote against any deal BoJo brings back for the same reason. I know I'm stating the obvious but where hypocrisy rules, truth is seldom aired.
The LDs will never vote for any Brexit, even BINO, because it will make it harder to rejoin, Democracy is irrelevant, but It makes a nice name.
The SNP will never vote for any deal for their own political reasons. Many Brexit supporters were always cynical about it happening because the runes were readable from the beginning. But it would be nice if the parties would stop lying - but it's the nature of the beast.
An interesting line of questioning by Nick Robinson to a Tory Cabinet Minister 'Is it reasonable for the Prime Minister to talk about 'surrender' to the likes of Rory Stewart who served their country with distinction in Afghanistan and Iraq" (implied..... while he was bonking his way through a succession of floozies while on official business)
I think we have seen on here in our quiet little backwater of PB that the most fervent, militant rhetoric comes from armchair generals who would shit themselves if placed in any kind of confrontational situation.
I wasn't aware that Labour transphobia was a thing until now.
Transphobia is quite broadly defined on the left now. I'm sure there is plenty of hardcore transphobia. What Labour has more of is feminist groups who want to protect sex-based rights as well as gender-based rights. Some of them are transphobic for sure, I think some of them are just scared of what happens when the criterion for being able to access protected women's spaces is "say you are a woman" rather than "are biologically female". We are seeing this debate play out on a range of issues globally from changing rooms to waxing salons and elite sports. I don't think it's black and white on either side, and both sides behave sufficiently badly that, much like Parliament, it's a shame there isn't a way for them both to lose.
I suspect this is where it will end up . If the Lib Dems , PC and independents who are anti no deal really want to stop it they’re going to have to put up with Corbyn.
If they refuse to do that then they can explain to their voters why they allowed the UK to crash out when they could have stopped that .
And let’s be blunt given the cesspit that now passes as no 10 . Compared to Bozo at least Corbyn wouldn’t try and break the law . The more unhinged Bozo gets the better Corbyn looks.
A question about the working of FTPA. Corbyn calls a VONC and wins. Johnson heads up to Balmoral to resign and suggests HM send for Corbyn. Corbyn assembles a rainbow coalition which loses the confirmatory VOC. Who then further advises HM about another possible successor or date of general election? Is it Corbyn or Johnson? The Act doesn't seem very clear about this.
I wasn't aware that Labour transphobia was a thing until now.
It's not transphobia that troubles Labour, it's the nasty, borderline violent struggle between radical feminists ("TERFs") and militant trans rights activists.
They hate each other the same way extreme Marxist groupuscules hate each other.
What a charming place the Left has become. And now their lunacy spreads everywhere...
The left always eats itself eventually. Too many inherent contradictions in their creed.
I wonder if any Resident’s Associations might be tempted to put up candidates at a General Election?
My mother has been a member of the Tory party for at least 4 decades. She voted for Johnson in the leadership, but is appalled at him deliberately misleading the Queen and suspending parliament.
The switch of Tory polling support to C2DE is going to be a tough one to sustain. The only post Brexit way to keep them on board is continued angry culture war stuff. That is why Brexit does not restore sanity to the country.
Yes, in some ways the shift in England over the last few years echoes the shift that happened (in microcosm) what happened in Northern Ireland when the DUP usurped the UUP as the main political voice of loyalists/the right. The difference is that it was a switch of parties and DUP politicians generally reflected the voters that switched to them.
The characteristics of Conservative Party support is changing, but this is not (currently anyway) reflected in the backgrounds of Tory MPs and leadership. The latter are using the former (or dependent on the former, depending on your viewpoint) to get what they want, but post Brexit they will quite likely struggle to maintain support whilst the disconnect in background and understanding persists.
Whenever you here a Southern Tory going on about the voters of the Midlands/north feeling betrayed/let down, how many of them do you think have really taken the time to delve deeply into the underlying problems? It’s mostly just cliches.
Very good post. Let's add another element here: the direction the Tories are going is going to be hugely detrimental to them in the long term. The "fuck business" approach will see wealthy donors -- always the Tories' most formidable weapon -- disappear, perhaps in the direction of the Lib Dems. If the typical Tory changes from Dorothy & Dennis to Dawn & Dan, donations will dry up.
Sadly it’s pretty clear this is no longer a decent country.
Give me strength.
if Tim Farron wants to live in a "decent society", maybe he should persuade his party to drop their policy of simply cancelling the largest single vote in British history, and telling 17 million Britons their vote means nothing, because we are no longer a democracy.
That is the most indecent policy ever proposed by a major British party. If the Lib Dems ever carried it out it would truly envenom our nation, for a generation.
Not really, the Tories had a still huge 14% lead in the South over the LDs yesterday with Yougov but in the North were just 1% behind Labour and in the Midlands and Wales had a 10% lead over Labour.
It is more working class men who voted Leave leaving Labour than Tory Home Counties women who voted Remain leaving the Tories
Honestly HYUFD, you must, surely, realise that a "huge 14%" over a party who were nowhere just two years ago is going to lead to Conservative seat losses.
Let's take your part of the world. I'm guessing that the Conservatives have more than a 14% lead in Epping Forest. Let's say Epping Forest goes 60% Con, 15% Brexit, 10% Labour, 10% Lib Dem, 5% other. That sounds finger-in-the-air plausible to me. And there are plenty of Epping Forests in the South-East.
So in order for 14% to be true across YouGov's "Rest of South" (i.e. not London), that 50% Conservative lead (over the Lib Dems) in Epping Forest has to be balanced out by some pretty good Lib Dem numbers elsewhere.
Those good Lib Dem numbers did not exist in GE2017. They just didn't. The Lib Dems won just three seats in "Rest of South" at GE2017 (OxWAB, Eastbourne, Bath). The Conservatives won cartloads of seats.
Any halfway sensible projection (or even Electoral Calculus) will show you that a Con lead of just 14% over the Lib Dems means a lot of GE2017 Conservative voters have left the party.
I don't think your figures for Epping Forest are very accurate. In the 2019 there were more LD votes than Tory, and the Greens were close to pushing the Tories into 4th place.
Sadly it’s pretty clear this is no longer a decent country.
Give me strength.
if Tim Farron wants to live in a "decent society", maybe he should persuade his party to drop their policy of simply cancelling the largest single vote in British history, and telling 17 million Britons their vote means nothing, because we are no longer a democracy.
That is the most indecent policy ever proposed by a major British party. If the Lib Dems ever carried it out it would truly envenom our nation, for a generation.
You keep posting this nonsense but it doesn’t make it true.
A question about the working of FTPA. Corbyn calls a VONC and wins. Johnson heads up to Balmoral to resign and suggests HM send for Corbyn. Corbyn assembles a rainbow coalition which loses the confirmatory VOC. Who then further advises HM about another possible successor or date of general election? Is it Corbyn or Johnson? The Act doesn't seem very clear about this.
Corbyn.
It's not in the FTPA because that's not what the FTPA is about: The FTPA just regulates calling elections, and all the preexisting arrangements about everything related to that still apply.
A question about the working of FTPA. Corbyn calls a VONC and wins. Johnson heads up to Balmoral to resign and suggests HM send for Corbyn. Corbyn assembles a rainbow coalition which loses the confirmatory VOC. Who then further advises HM about another possible successor or date of general election? Is it Corbyn or Johnson? The Act doesn't seem very clear about this.
If the queen has appointed Corbyn, it's Corbyn. He remains PM until a new candidate is found or until a general election confirms or removes him.
Even if he had asked the PM he wouldnt know. Because the PM is a duplicitous liar who can say "I dont want an election" and "I do want an election" simultaneously at the dispatch box with a straight face.
He could ask Cummings I suppose, but would probably just get told "I dont know who you are, f*** off".
I believe the Tories will remain the main right of centre party no matter what happens with No Deal with a good chance of a majority, if the Tories extend again the Tories have zero chance of a majority and I believe the Tories may well go extinct with the Brexit Party overtaking them as the main party of the right.
Those are the stakes and why fanatical diehard Remainers like Foxy must be ignored as they do not understand the fury of Leavers at all
I don't think I'm alone in thinking that when it comes to fanaticism, you lead the way. The ghastly contortions you perform to defend your party when they've made obvious mistakes are fascinating.
As the European Parliament elections (in which I still voted Tory) showed if the Tories extend again Tory and Leave voters will defect an masse to the Brexit Party which will then overtake the Tories.
Sooner or later if Brexit is then cancelled by diehard Remainers we will get a populist right even a far right Government within the next decade, a nasty, nasty Government from the perspective of left liberal die hard Remainers even more so than the so called 'evil Tories.'
And diehard Remainers will have nobody to blame but themselves
Sadly it’s pretty clear this is no longer a decent country.
Give me strength.
if Tim Farron wants to live in a "decent society", maybe he should persuade his party to drop their policy of simply cancelling the largest single vote in British history, and telling 17 million Britons their vote means nothing, because we are no longer a democracy.
That is the most indecent policy ever proposed by a major British party. If the Lib Dems ever carried it out it would truly envenom our nation, for a generation.
You keep posting this nonsense but it doesn’t make it true.
There are enough Lib Dems, just on this site, who are deeply disturbed by the policy of Revoke. And they are Lib Dems.
The main way of excusing the madness of Revoke seems to be: Yes, it's a disaster and it's anti-democratic, but don't worry, we'll never win, so it's OK.
If your best way of selling a policy is to say It''s shit, but it will never be enacted, then there is a major problem. Revoke is extraordinarily irresponsible. It's the sort of breezy constitutional wheeze David Cameron might have devised, to get himself out of a fix.
And fantastic news for the Liberal Democrats in Scotland: the latest ComRes split shows Jo Swinson’s team more than doubling their support, to 16%. This ought to be enough for them to re-take NE Fife and comfortably hold their 4 current seats.
SNP will be pleased too. And SLab relieved to be back in 2nd spot. albeit a very distant 2nd.
However, the party formerly known as “Ruth Davidson’s Candidates” appear to be in freefall: 5th place, on just 10% of the vote. No wonder Ruth did not want her reputation tarnished by The Clown.
HYUFD was bigging up YouGov yesterday, which had the SCon’s still above 20%, just. But none of the other pollsters are remotely as comforting for spluttering British nationalists. We await the first full-sample Scottish VI poll since Ruth’s resignation, but all indications are that it will be very grim indeed for Tories.
I wasn't aware that Labour transphobia was a thing until now.
It's not transphobia that troubles Labour, it's the nasty, borderline violent struggle between radical feminists ("TERFs") and militant trans rights activists.
They hate each other the same way extreme Marxist groupuscules hate each other.
What a charming place the Left has become. And now their lunacy spreads everywhere...
The left always eats itself eventually. Too many inherent contradictions in their creed.
Unlike the right? Unlike the Brexiteers? Unlike any two consecutive tweets from President Trump? Where is this island of harmony and stability in today's politics, or yesterday's, come to that?
Sadly it’s pretty clear this is no longer a decent country.
Give me strength.
if Tim Farron wants to live in a "decent society", maybe he should persuade his party to drop their policy of simply cancelling the largest single vote in British history, and telling 17 million Britons their vote means nothing, because we are no longer a democracy.
That is the most indecent policy ever proposed by a major British party. If the Lib Dems ever carried it out it would truly envenom our nation, for a generation.
You keep posting this nonsense but it doesn’t make it true.
You can't implement a manifesto policy after a general election victory, that's undemocratic! You can't have a referendum, that's undemocratic! You aren't allowed to express opinions that go against the Little Book of Approved Ideas, that's undemocratic! Democracy is forever enshrined in a single number, and that number is 17.4 million. Anything you want -- anything at all -- has to equal 17.4 million or it is undemocratic.
Not really, the Tories had a still huge 14% lead in the South over the LDs yesterday with Yougov but in the North were just 1% behind Labour and in the Midlands and Wales had a 10% lead over Labour.
It is more working class men who voted Leave leaving Labour than Tory Home Counties women who voted Remain leaving the Tories
Honestly HYUFD, you must, surely, realise that a "huge 14%" over a party who were nowhere just two years ago is going to lead to Conservative seat losses.
Let's take your part of the world. I'm guessing that the Conservatives have more than a 14% lead in Epping Forest. Let's say Epping Forest goes 60% Con, 15% Brexit, 10% Labour, 10% Lib Dem, 5% other. That sounds finger-in-the-air plausible to me. And there are plenty of Epping Forests in the South-East.
So in order for 14% to be true across YouGov's "Rest of South" (i.e. not London), that 50% Conservative lead (over the Lib Dems) in Epping Forest has to be balanced out by some pretty good Lib Dem numbers elsewhere.
Those good Lib Dem numbers did not exist in GE2017. They just didn't. The Lib Dems won just three seats in "Rest of South" at GE2017 (OxWAB, Eastbourne, Bath). The Conservatives won cartloads of seats.
Any halfway sensible projection (or even Electoral Calculus) will show you that a Con lead of just 14% over the Lib Dems means a lot of GE2017 Conservative voters have left the party.
A few losses to the LDs in the South and London will be more than made up for in Tory gains from Labour in the Midlands, Wales, London and the North
A question about the working of FTPA. Corbyn calls a VONC and wins. Johnson heads up to Balmoral to resign and suggests HM send for Corbyn. Corbyn assembles a rainbow coalition which loses the confirmatory VOC. Who then further advises HM about another possible successor or date of general election? Is it Corbyn or Johnson? The Act doesn't seem very clear about this.
If the queen has appointed Corbyn, it's Corbyn. He remains PM until a new candidate is found or until a general election confirms or removes him.
Yes, it would be PM Corbyn in Number 10 during such an election. Presumably the homeless family in Number 11 would be wise not to unpack too much!
If Corbyn respects electoral purdah, and gets an EU extension in line with current law, it should be worth a few % on his polling. He may also get to stay on post GE in the likely event of a hung parliament taking time to assemble a government. He could easily outlast BoZo.
Sadly it’s pretty clear this is no longer a decent country.
The definition of decent of course being having a Parliament that ignores the votes of 17 million people it seems and an electorate that accepts that without complaint
The votes of 17 million people have not been ignored. Pretty well nothing else other than Brexit has been discussed for three years.
The idea has been investigated, a deal was negotiated based on the Leave campaign and put to Parliament, where it was roundly rejected by all sides as unacceptable.
The original idea of Leaving with the easiest deal in history has been shown to be a false prospectus. So we need to rethink.
No fanatical die hard Remainers like you Alistair have refused to accept the Leave vote from day 1 and even you have accepted the Leave win required new immigration controls, you will clearly stop at nothing to stop Brexit being delivered, Leavers must now stop at nothing to ensure Brexit is delivered
Will you stop making up things about me? I have consistently said that I would have voted for the deal had I had the option.
So stop lying. An apology would be in order at this point.
Apology on that front then, as I said at least you have accepted the Leave win required tighter immigration controls
Sadly it’s pretty clear this is no longer a decent country.
Give me strength.
if Tim Farron wants to live in a "decent society", maybe he should persuade his party to drop their policy of simply cancelling the largest single vote in British history, and telling 17 million Britons their vote means nothing, because we are no longer a democracy.
That is the most indecent policy ever proposed by a major British party. If the Lib Dems ever carried it out it would truly envenom our nation, for a generation.
You keep posting this nonsense but it doesn’t make it true.
You can't implement a manifesto policy after a general election victory, that's undemocratic! You can't have a referendum, that's undemocratic! You aren't allowed to express opinions that go against the Little Book of Approved Ideas, that's undemocratic! Democracy is forever enshrined in a single number, and that number is 17.4 million. Anything you want -- anything at all -- has to equal 17.4 million or it is undemocratic.
Revoke is as dangerous and extreme as the most egregious No Deal fantasies of the frothiest Brexiteer. Deep down, you know this, so I don't know why you bother denying it.
And fantastic news for the Liberal Democrats in Scotland: the latest ComRes split shows Jo Swinson’s team more than doubling their support, to 16%. This ought to be enough for them to re-take NE Fife and comfortably hold their 4 current seats.
SNP will be pleased too. And SLab relieved to be back in 2nd spot. albeit a very distant 2nd.
However, the party formerly known as “Ruth Davidson’s Candidates” appear to be in freefall: 5th place, on just 10% of the vote. No wonder Ruth did not want her reputation tarnished by The Clown.
HYUFD was bigging up YouGov yesterday, which had the SCon’s still above 20%, just. But none of the other pollsters are remotely as comforting for spluttering British nationalists. We await the first full-sample Scottish VI poll since Ruth’s resignation, but all indications are that it will be very grim indeed for Tories.
I believe the Tories will remain the main right of centre party no matter what happens with No Deal with a good chance of a majority, if the Tories extend again the Tories have zero chance of a majority and I believe the Tories may well go extinct with the Brexit Party overtaking them as the main party of the right.
Those are the stakes and why fanatical diehard Remainers like Foxy must be ignored as they do not understand the fury of Leavers at all
I don't think I'm alone in thinking that when it comes to fanaticism, you lead the way. The ghastly contortions you perform to defend your party when they've made obvious mistakes are fascinating.
As the European Parliament elections (in which I still voted Tory) showed if the Tories extend again Tory and Leave voters will defect an masse to the Brexit Party which will then overtake the Tories.
Sooner or later if Brexit is then cancelled by diehard Remainers we will get a populist right even a far right Government within the next decade, a nasty, nasty Government from the perspective of left liberal die hard Remainers even more so than the so called 'evil Tories.'
And diehard Remainers will have nobody to blame but themselves
You were telling us about the fury of the Leavers. And I was wondering what on earth you would know about the fury of Leavers?
I believe the Tories will remain the main right of centre party no matter what happens with No Deal with a good chance of a majority, if the Tories extend again the Tories have zero chance of a majority and I believe the Tories may well go extinct with the Brexit Party overtaking them as the main party of the right.
Those are the stakes and why fanatical diehard Remainers like Foxy must be ignored as they do not understand the fury of Leavers at all
I don't think I'm alone in thinking that when it comes to fanaticism, you lead the way. The ghastly contortions you perform to defend your party when they've made obvious mistakes are fascinating.
As the European Parliament elections (in which I still voted Tory) showed if the Tories extend again Tory and Leave voters will defect an masse to the Brexit Party which will then overtake the Tories.
Sooner or later if Brexit is then cancelled by diehard Remainers we will get a populist right even a far right Government within the next decade, a nasty, nasty Government from the perspective of left liberal die hard Remainers even more so than the so called 'evil Tories.'
And diehard Remainers will have nobody to blame but themselves
I believe the Tories will remain the main right of centre party no matter what happens with No Deal with a good chance of a majority, if the Tories extend again the Tories have zero chance of a majority and I believe the Tories may well go extinct with the Brexit Party overtaking them as the main party of the right.
Those are the stakes and why fanatical diehard Remainers like Foxy must be ignored as they do not understand the fury of Leavers at all
I don't think I'm alone in thinking that when it comes to fanaticism, you lead the way. The ghastly contortions you perform to defend your party when they've made obvious mistakes are fascinating.
As the European Parliament elections (in which I still voted Tory) showed if the Tories extend again Tory and Leave voters will defect an masse to the Brexit Party which will then overtake the Tories.
Sooner or later if Brexit is then cancelled by diehard Remainers we will get a populist right even a far right Government within the next decade, a nasty, nasty Government from the perspective of left liberal die hard Remainers even more so than the so called 'evil Tories.'
And diehard Remainers will have nobody to blame but themselves
(IF)^2=CRAP
32% of voters voted Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections, how many PBers?
I wasn't aware that Labour transphobia was a thing until now.
It's not transphobia that troubles Labour, it's the nasty, borderline violent struggle between radical feminists ("TERFs") and militant trans rights activists.
They hate each other the same way extreme Marxist groupuscules hate each other.
What a charming place the Left has become. And now their lunacy spreads everywhere...
The left always eats itself eventually. Too many inherent contradictions in their creed.
Unlike the right? Unlike the Brexiteers? Unlike any two consecutive tweets from President Trump? Where is this island of harmony and stability in today's politics, or yesterday's, come to that?
Not all Brexiteers are right wing. Trump is arguably very far from being right wing.
There is no harmony because of the contradictions inherent in all our thinking at the moment. You can’t support affirmative feminism at the same time as supporting transgender rights without alienating one of the groups.
You can’t expect a generously funded universal welfare state and at the same time seek to destroy the rich and successful who pay for it.
You can’t have a No Deal Brexit and expect to carry on as normal.
I believe the Tories will remain the main right of centre party no matter what happens with No Deal with a good chance of a majority, if the Tories extend again the Tories have zero chance of a majority and I believe the Tories may well go extinct with the Brexit Party overtaking them as the main party of the right.
Those are the stakes and why fanatical diehard Remainers like Foxy must be ignored as they do not understand the fury of Leavers at all
I don't think I'm alone in thinking that when it comes to fanaticism, you lead the way. The ghastly contortions you perform to defend your party when they've made obvious mistakes are fascinating.
As the European Parliament elections (in which I still voted Tory) showed if the Tories extend again Tory and Leave voters will defect an masse to the Brexit Party which will then overtake the Tories.
Sooner or later if Brexit is then cancelled by diehard Remainers we will get a populist right even a far right Government within the next decade, a nasty, nasty Government from the perspective of left liberal die hard Remainers even more so than the so called 'evil Tories.'
And diehard Remainers will have nobody to blame but themselves
You don't fend off the far right by giving them what they want. That's what Cameron did, that's what May did, and that's what Boris is. If I wanted advice on how to prevent the far right from taking root the very last person I would ask is a Tory.
Gods, I'm actually amazed you can't see this! You think after nine years of Tory government and 9 years of rising far-right sentiment, the Tories and Tory policies are the solution? You really don't see it yet? You did this. You.
Is it still LD policy to refuse to accept any further referendum unless it gives them the answer they want? Or was it just Ms Swinson's opinion?
You misunderstand her position, presumably deliberately. Whatever the outcome of any referendum or GE, a Swinson led party would campaign to rejoin the EU. That is not a refusal to accept, it is a determination to overturn.
It is a very similar position to the SNP on Scottish independence, no amount of electoral reverses are going to change the ultimate goal.
And fantastic news for the Liberal Democrats in Scotland: the latest ComRes split shows Jo Swinson’s team more than doubling their support, to 16%. This ought to be enough for them to re-take NE Fife and comfortably hold their 4 current seats.
SNP will be pleased too. And SLab relieved to be back in 2nd spot. albeit a very distant 2nd.
However, the party formerly known as “Ruth Davidson’s Candidates” appear to be in freefall: 5th place, on just 10% of the vote. No wonder Ruth did not want her reputation tarnished by The Clown.
HYUFD was bigging up YouGov yesterday, which had the SCon’s still above 20%, just. But none of the other pollsters are remotely as comforting for spluttering British nationalists. We await the first full-sample Scottish VI poll since Ruth’s resignation, but all indications are that it will be very grim indeed for Tories.
Anyone suspect there is more to come on the pole dancing american - being kept in the drawer for an election period?
No. The story is not being pushed by political opponents because they know it will come back to bite them as they're all as bad as each other in this respect.
I believe the Tories will remain the main right of centre party no matter what happens with No Deal with a good chance of a majority, if the Tories extend again the Tories have zero chance of a majority and I believe the Tories may well go extinct with the Brexit Party overtaking them as the main party of the right.
Those are the stakes and why fanatical diehard Remainers like Foxy must be ignored as they do not understand the fury of Leavers at all
I don't think I'm alone in thinking that when it comes to fanaticism, you lead the way. The ghastly contortions you perform to defend your party when they've made obvious mistakes are fascinating.
As the European Parliament elections (in which I still voted Tory) showed if the Tories extend again Tory and Leave voters will defect an masse to the Brexit Party which will then overtake the Tories.
Sooner or later if Brexit is then cancelled by diehard Remainers we will get a populist right even a far right Government within the next decade, a nasty, nasty Government from the perspective of left liberal die hard Remainers even more so than the so called 'evil Tories.'
And diehard Remainers will have nobody to blame but themselves
(IF)^2=CRAP
32% of voters voted Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections, how many PBers?
I believe the Tories will remain the main right of centre party no matter what happens with No Deal with a good chance of a majority, if the Tories extend again the Tories have zero chance of a majority and I believe the Tories may well go extinct with the Brexit Party overtaking them as the main party of the right.
Those are the stakes and why fanatical diehard Remainers like Foxy must be ignored as they do not understand the fury of Leavers at all
I don't think I'm alone in thinking that when it comes to fanaticism, you lead the way. The ghastly contortions you perform to defend your party when they've made obvious mistakes are fascinating.
As the European Parliament elections (in which I still voted Tory) showed if the Tories extend again Tory and Leave voters will defect an masse to the Brexit Party which will then overtake the Tories.
Sooner or later if Brexit is then cancelled by diehard Remainers we will get a populist right even a far right Government within the next decade, a nasty, nasty Government from the perspective of left liberal die hard Remainers even more so than the so called 'evil Tories.'
And diehard Remainers will have nobody to blame but themselves
You don't fend off the far right by giving them what they want. That's what Cameron did, that's what May did, and that's what Boris is. If I wanted advice on how to prevent the far right from taking root the very last person I would ask is a Tory.
Gods, I'm actually amazed you can't see this! You think after nine years of Tory government and 9 years of rising far-right sentiment, the Tories and Tory policies are the solution? You really don't see it yet? You did this. You.
You don't tend off far right sentiment by ignoring the biggest vote since the war and driving those voters to the hard right or far right
I believe the Tories will remain the main right of centre party no matter what happens with No Deal with a good chance of a majority, if the Tories extend again the Tories have zero chance of a majority and I believe the Tories may well go extinct with the Brexit Party overtaking them as the main party of the right.
Those are the stakes and why fanatical diehard Remainers like Foxy must be ignored as they do not understand the fury of Leavers at all
I don't think I'm alone in thinking that when it comes to fanaticism, you lead the way. The ghastly contortions you perform to defend your party when they've made obvious mistakes are fascinating.
As the European Parliament elections (in which I still voted Tory) showed if the Tories extend again Tory and Leave voters will defect an masse to the Brexit Party which will then overtake the Tories.
Sooner or later if Brexit is then cancelled by diehard Remainers we will get a populist right even a far right Government within the next decade, a nasty, nasty Government from the perspective of left liberal die hard Remainers even more so than the so called 'evil Tories.'
And diehard Remainers will have nobody to blame but themselves
(IF)^2=CRAP
32% of voters voted Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections, how many PBers?
...does it take to change a light bulb? To fill a bath? To dig three holes with two teaspoons?
I believe the Tories will remain the main right of centre party no matter what happens with No Deal with a good chance of a majority, if the Tories extend again the Tories have zero chance of a majority and I believe the Tories may well go extinct with the Brexit Party overtaking them as the main party of the right.
Those are the stakes and why fanatical diehard Remainers like Foxy must be ignored as they do not understand the fury of Leavers at all
I don't think I'm alone in thinking that when it comes to fanaticism, you lead the way. The ghastly contortions you perform to defend your party when they've made obvious mistakes are fascinating.
As the European Parliament elections (in which I still voted Tory) showed if the Tories extend again Tory and Leave voters will defect an masse to the Brexit Party which will then overtake the Tories.
Sooner or later if Brexit is then cancelled by diehard Remainers we will get a populist right even a far right Government within the next decade, a nasty, nasty Government from the perspective of left liberal die hard Remainers even more so than the so called 'evil Tories.'
And diehard Remainers will have nobody to blame but themselves
You don't fend off the far right by giving them what they want. That's what Cameron did, that's what May did, and that's what Boris is. If I wanted advice on how to prevent the far right from taking root the very last person I would ask is a Tory.
Gods, I'm actually amazed you can't see this! You think after nine years of Tory government and 9 years of rising far-right sentiment, the Tories and Tory policies are the solution? You really don't see it yet? You did this. You.
You don't tend off far right sentiment by ignoring the biggest vote since the war and driving those voters to the hard right or far right
Your populist scum party is the one driving them to the hard right.
None of this matters, because - when the general election comes - the 17.4 million good decent sensible patriotic Leave voters (i.e. the people who believe in freedom and self-government, and who understand how democracy works) will rise up in a united frenzy of patriotic fervour and will vote en masse for the Conservative Party under our great historic liberator, Boris Johnson.
The Brexit Party supporters will do their own electoral pact in the sanctity of the polling booth (regardless of whether there is a Brexit Party candidate standing in their constituency), will avoid splitting the vote, and will also vote Conservative, knowing that the Conservative Party is the only party which can be trusted to deliver Brexit.
The tiny minority of 16.1 million weird undemocratic anti-democratic Remain voters, Remoaners, Remoaniacs, saboteurs, anti-patriots, and people who want to live under the tyrannical yoke of an undemocratic unaccountable wasteful corrupt foreign bureaucracy of dictators, meddlers, regulators, and impertinent interferers, and who are willing to extract billions of pounds a year from ordinary normal decent hard-working UK taxpayers in order to pay the membership fee, will split their votes in several directions and lose seats accordingly.
The ordinary centre-left weirdoes who do not want their whole existence to be taxed, nationalised, collectivised and regulated by a frenzied gang of extreme-left Maoists under Corbyn, but who are happy for their children to be indoctrinated into yellowism and forced to eat tofu in a politically-correct gulag, will defect from Labour and will vote for the Illiberal Anti-Democrats.
The anti-everything weirdoes of the left who want the whole of civilisation to be abolished will vote for the Green Party or the SNP; and the tiny minority of extreme lefties who want their entire lives to be regimented and controlled in a network of worker-peasant collective slave-camps, will vote for the Labour Party.
The net result is that in the strongest Remain areas, Labour will lose lots of votes and seats to the (il)Lib (anti)Dems, and in the suburbs and swing marginals, a split vote will result in the election of Conservative MPs.
The result will be something like Con 600 Lab 10 LD 10 SNP 10 Northern Ireland 18 Green 1 PC 1
I didn't realise we were allowed to just make parody accounts of other users; I feel this is rather mean spirited towards the likes of HYUFD myself (sarcasm)
I suspect this is where it will end up . If the Lib Dems , PC and independents who are anti no deal really want to stop it they’re going to have to put up with Corbyn.
If they refuse to do that then they can explain to their voters why they allowed the UK to crash out when they could have stopped that .
And let’s be blunt given the cesspit that now passes as no 10 . Compared to Bozo at least Corbyn wouldn’t try and break the law . The more unhinged Bozo gets the better Corbyn looks.
Actually, I am going to do a bit of Godwin's Law but apply it to Corbyn. If that does happen (and I don't think the LDs will do as it will destroy their chances of winning wealthy Tory seats in the SOuth), then it will resemble what happened in 1933 when Hitler became Chancellor. Corbyn being put in power on the back of other parties who believe that they can control and restrain him and rein in his excesses. I suspect, like Hitler, Corbyn would prove them wrong.
Comments
May's Deal probably produces another hung parliament with the Tories largest party if it still has the backstop
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1176103416990437377?s=20
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1176087917149728768?s=20
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1176096370702180355?s=20
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1175856112299577350?s=20
When the ECML was electrified, it was done on the cheap (not necessarily a bad thing, but there are consequences). The overhead wires are hung from other wires:
https://richardwyattblog.files.wordpress.com/2014/07/image3.jpeg
This is cheaper and less visually intrusive (see the Goring Gap in the link below - there's an argument about that) than a portal:
https://tinyurl.com/y67oyrv5
But, the big advantage of a portal is that if there is a dewirement, it is limited to the one track that it occurs on. When it happens on the ECML, it is utter carnage as it brings the whole lot down.
The WCML has suffered recently from the new WMT timetable, which as @ydoethur rightly points out, has had a number of problems (basically getting trains to join up at New Street is a pain).
The switch of Tory polling support to C2DE is going to be a tough one to sustain. The only post Brexit way to keep them on board is continued angry culture war stuff. That is why Brexit does not restore sanity to the country.
The Commons didn't back May's deal. When she gave as much as she could (customs union on a permanent basis is a matter for the post-deal negotiations, not the transition agreement) they still didn't back her deal.
The Commons had the chance to vote for a second referendum in indicative votes and a majority were against.
Agreeing such a second referendum would probably get more support. But the Commons loathes Boris Johnson. Are they really going to back *anything* he puts forward?
Those are the stakes and why fanatical diehard Remainers like Foxy must be ignored as they do not understand the fury of Leavers at all
The only thing that seems certain is that more women say they don't know who they will vote for than men.
Polls show Boris Johnson has a women problem.
Boris Johnson is under pressure to tone down his rhetoric after polling showed his popularity falling among women.
Female voters are more likely than men to describe Mr Johnson as “dislikeable” and “out of touch”, and much less likely to think he would make the best prime minister....
..It follows two days of angry clashes in the Commons, with female MPs accusing the prime minister of using violent rhetoric.
A YouGov poll carried out before the parliamentary row on Wednesday night showed how Mr Johnson’s popularity has been hardest hit among women. Almost half of women (47 per cent) described the PM as “dislikeable”, up seven points since the end of August, and five points higher than among men.
Some 51 per cent of women said he was incompetent, up nine points from the end of August. Among men it was up six points to 50 per cent.
While 25 per cent of men described Mr Johnson as honest, just 19 per cent of women agreed. Asked who would make the best prime minister, Mr Johnson was backed by 44 per cent of men and just 35 per cent of women....
...A snap poll carried out by YouGov in the wake of the row found 71 per cent of men believed the prime minister “has a duty to try and create a safe environment in which MPs work”, rising to 76 per cent among women.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/polls-show-boris-johnson-has-a-women-problem-xsvtjq06g
The characteristics of Conservative Party support is changing, but this is not (currently anyway) reflected in the backgrounds of Tory MPs and leadership. The latter are using the former (or dependent on the former, depending on your viewpoint) to get what they want, but post Brexit they will quite likely struggle to maintain support whilst the disconnect in background and understanding persists.
Whenever you here a Southern Tory going on about the voters of the Midlands/north feeling betrayed/let down, how many of them do you think have really taken the time to delve deeply into the underlying problems? It’s mostly just cliches.
It may well be that women are more likely to wait for the campaign and manifestos before committing, or merely a reticence to answer.
"Will not say Women" are a key demographic, and not one likely to break for BoZo.
So stop lying. An apology would be in order at this point.
Really? I thought the prevailing view was that it wouldn’t be (Liberal) democratic even if done after securing a majority on a manifesto commitment in a future General Election?
https://twitter.com/snowthistle/status/1177478187963404288?s=20
Obviously the risk of it getting overturned - without the triggering of A50 - after the 2022 election would be there.
Let's take your part of the world. I'm guessing that the Conservatives have more than a 14% lead in Epping Forest. Let's say Epping Forest goes 60% Con, 15% Brexit, 10% Labour, 10% Lib Dem, 5% other. That sounds finger-in-the-air plausible to me. And there are plenty of Epping Forests in the South-East.
So in order for 14% to be true across YouGov's "Rest of South" (i.e. not London), that 50% Conservative lead (over the Lib Dems) in Epping Forest has to be balanced out by some pretty good Lib Dem numbers elsewhere.
Those good Lib Dem numbers did not exist in GE2017. They just didn't. The Lib Dems won just three seats in "Rest of South" at GE2017 (OxWAB, Eastbourne, Bath). The Conservatives won cartloads of seats.
Any halfway sensible projection (or even Electoral Calculus) will show you that a Con lead of just 14% over the Lib Dems means a lot of GE2017 Conservative voters have left the party.
A Rose by any other name...
I am fairly relaxed about any outcome though. I have the most secure of jobs, a secure pension and have hedged my investments well against No Deal.
I see no bar chart.
"The level of transphobia and antisemitism was also difficult to see, and must be horrendous to endure for our trans and Jewish comrades. "
https://labourlist.org/2019/09/first-time-conference-goers-delegate-diary-day-five/
I wasn't aware that Labour transphobia was a thing until now.
Because you are neither. You are a remainer. A die hard remainer, in the vernacular.
People calling for further division, on both sides, are choosing the wrong path.
They hate each other the same way extreme Marxist groupuscules hate each other.
What a charming place the Left has become. And now their lunacy spreads everywhere...
That means he'll vote against any deal BoJo brings back for the same reason. I know I'm stating the obvious but where hypocrisy rules, truth is seldom aired.
The LDs will never vote for any Brexit, even BINO, because it will make it harder to rejoin, Democracy is irrelevant, but It makes a nice name.
The SNP will never vote for any deal for their own political reasons. Many Brexit supporters were always cynical about it happening because the runes were readable from the beginning. But it would be nice if the parties would stop lying - but it's the nature of the beast.
If they refuse to do that then they can explain to their voters why they allowed the UK to crash out when they could have stopped that .
And let’s be blunt given the cesspit that now passes as no 10 . Compared to Bozo at least Corbyn wouldn’t try and break the law . The more unhinged Bozo gets the better Corbyn looks.
Let's add another element here: the direction the Tories are going is going to be hugely detrimental to them in the long term. The "fuck business" approach will see wealthy donors -- always the Tories' most formidable weapon -- disappear, perhaps in the direction of the Lib Dems.
If the typical Tory changes from Dorothy & Dennis to Dawn & Dan, donations will dry up.
if Tim Farron wants to live in a "decent society", maybe he should persuade his party to drop their policy of simply cancelling the largest single vote in British history, and telling 17 million Britons their vote means nothing, because we are no longer a democracy.
That is the most indecent policy ever proposed by a major British party. If the Lib Dems ever carried it out it would truly envenom our nation, for a generation.
https://www.eppingforestdc.gov.uk/eastern-region-eu-parliamentary-result/
I think that broadly you are right though, a low LD vote in Essex means a higher vote in places like Hampshire.
It's not in the FTPA because that's not what the FTPA is about: The FTPA just regulates calling elections, and all the preexisting arrangements about everything related to that still apply.
He could ask Cummings I suppose, but would probably just get told "I dont know who you are, f*** off".
Unelected bureaucrats anyone?
Sooner or later if Brexit is then cancelled by diehard Remainers we will get a populist right even a far right Government within the next decade, a nasty, nasty Government from the perspective of left liberal die hard Remainers even more so than the so called 'evil Tories.'
And diehard Remainers will have nobody to blame but themselves
The main way of excusing the madness of Revoke seems to be: Yes, it's a disaster and it's anti-democratic, but don't worry, we'll never win, so it's OK.
If your best way of selling a policy is to say It''s shit, but it will never be enacted, then there is a major problem. Revoke is extraordinarily irresponsible. It's the sort of breezy constitutional wheeze David Cameron might have devised, to get himself out of a fix.
Democracy is forever enshrined in a single number, and that number is 17.4 million. Anything you want -- anything at all -- has to equal 17.4 million or it is undemocratic.
If Corbyn respects electoral purdah, and gets an EU extension in line with current law, it should be worth a few % on his polling. He may also get to stay on post GE in the likely event of a hung parliament taking time to assemble a government. He could easily outlast BoZo.
To which every question should be "Why did you vote against it happening in March?"
What are the odds it's a bit of Classic Dommery?
There is no harmony because of the contradictions inherent in all our thinking at the moment. You can’t support affirmative feminism at the same time as supporting transgender rights without alienating one of the groups.
You can’t expect a generously funded universal welfare state and at the same time seek to destroy the rich and successful who pay for it.
You can’t have a No Deal Brexit and expect to carry on as normal.
In November...
If I wanted advice on how to prevent the far right from taking root the very last person I would ask is a Tory.
Gods, I'm actually amazed you can't see this! You think after nine years of Tory government and 9 years of rising far-right sentiment, the Tories and Tory policies are the solution? You really don't see it yet? You did this. You.
It is a very similar position to the SNP on Scottish independence, no amount of electoral reverses are going to change the ultimate goal.
I think we should be told.