politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » First post-Supreme Court polling finds the LDs main beneficiar

edmundintokyo said:

bigjohnowls said:

Voters decide. Every vote for Tory Swinson is a vote for Jester/ Cummings.

General rule: In a seat with a Labour MP, this is correct. In a seat without a Labour MP, this is the exact opposite of correct.

Not correct in Southampton Itchen, is it.

bigjohnowls said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1177158135355719682

Boris or Jezza Binary Choice


Voters decide. Every vote for Tory Swinson is a vote for Jester/ Cummings.

Ther only 2 possible outcomes.

No, there are endless permutations all of which are different results with different outcomes in terms of policy. What you write is palpably and clearly false. Given most of the LDs votes are coming from the educated your simplistic reduction is unlikely to cut much ice.

So after last night, do people think it's out of the question that Johnson will go for broke next month - refuse to request an extension, refuse to resign, refuse to accept a judgment of the Supreme Court?

Theuniondivvie said:

noneoftheabove said:

Andy_JS said:

https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1176999988599099394

What elected position of responsibility does this man hold? Of course it is horrible and offensive and I think he made a big mistake in doing it.

Surely the boundaries of taste and courtesy we demand from our PM, who is supposed to be the highest representative of the whole country, and an artist most people over 30 have never heard of are different? Is this where conservatives have ended up?

I'm sure this is honest offence taking from Tobes compared to the other kind.

https://twitter.com/spectator/status/1177161795854843904?s=20

Can I find honest offence at the suggestion that Paula Sheriff's offence taking is in any way disingenuous. She would be very high up any list of MPs who have had to endure the vilest abuse, much simply by truck of her looks, gender and where she represents. Also, safe to say, the main Dewsbury part of her constituency is not only neighbours, but forms a contiguous and coherent area of small towns with Batley and Spen, and she is one the MPs who would have been very closest to Jo Cox's murder.

Dadge said:

nunuone said:

So many remainers are complaining about Boris's bad behaviour.

Lol. They had a perfectly reasonable, and amenable PM in May and they treated her like shit.

No, they did not. May was stabbed by the Right, not the Left.

She was stabbed by both.

Pulpstar said:

nunuone said:

So many remainers are complaining about Boris's bad behaviour.

Lol. They had a perfectly reasonable, and amenable PM in May and they treated her like shit.

So, why exactly should Boris "tone it down"? I say Boris should double down.

As evidenced by both the ultra-leave and ultra-remain factions, May had completely internalised the compromise at the heart of the issue.

And yes she was treated disgracefully for doing so.

Yes the Remain side didn’t, and don’t want to compromise. If they did, they’d have voted for Mays agreement with the EU. They have always wanted to have another go or just revoke.

May was left a rotten hand, played it well and was treated disgracefully

nunuone said:

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/p_surridge/status/1177147781728931840

Look at the Conservative vote share in the Level 4 group!

No real surprise, the Tories now do better with skilled working class Leavers than upper middle class Remainers and the LDs lead with graduates.

Even in 2015 under Cameron the Tories only won graduates narrowly and by less than they won overall

This means the tories have a huge lead with C2's.

Which surely means they have a huge lead in the traditional marginals?

I feel like the swing o meters are wrong, and the tories are piling up votes where it matters.

Five council by-elections tonight; 3 Tory defences, one Labour and one Residents Association.
Should be safe, except the RA, who seem to have folded. Seat could go to either Con or LD.

Edit; Predictive text glitch!!!

noneoftheabove said:

bigjohnowls said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1177158135355719682

Boris or Jezza Binary Choice


Voters decide. Every vote for Tory Swinson is a vote for Jester/ Cummings.

Ther only 2 possible outcomes.

No, there are endless permutations all of which are different results with different outcomes in terms of policy. What you write is palpably and clearly false. Given most of the LDs votes are coming from the educated your simplistic reduction is unlikely to cut much ice.

Only 2 PMs are possible

LDs know that in their hearts

LAB 24 LD 22 Tory PM

LAB 34 LD 12 LAB PM PEOPLES VOTE

https://twitter.com/siennamarla/status/1177169194556755971

nunuone said:

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/p_surridge/status/1177147781728931840

Look at the Conservative vote share in the Level 4 group!

No real surprise, the Tories now do better with skilled working class Leavers than upper middle class Remainers and the LDs lead with graduates.

Even in 2015 under Cameron the Tories only won graduates narrowly and by less than they won overall

This means the tories have a huge lead with C2's.

Which surely means they have a huge lead in the traditional marginals?

I feel like the swing o meters are wrong, and the tories are piling up votes where it matters.

Looking at the polling the Tories have a big lead in the Midlands and Wales and I would expect many Tory gains from Labour there, Labour still lead in the North but by less than 2017 so I would expect a few Tory gains there and the Tories lead in the South still but also by less than 2017 with the LDs second so I would expect a few LD gains there

In London Labour is down and the Tories are about the same with the LDs up so I would expect LD gains from Labour and the Tories and a few Tory gains from Labour in the capital. In Scotland the SNP lead is bigger than 2017 and the Tories and Labour are down but the LDs up so I would expect SNP gains from the Tories and Labour in Scotland with the LDs maybe even gaining a seat or 2 from the SNP

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/p_surridge/status/1177147781728931840

Look at the Conservative vote share in the Level 4 group!

No real surprise, the Tories now do better with skilled working class Leavers than upper middle class Remainers and the LDs lead with graduates.

Even in 2015 under Cameron the Tories only won graduates narrowly and by less than they won overall

It is a massive surprise. However much you try and spin it in your Comical Ali fashion it demonstrates that the Conservative Party, the Party of Disraeli, Keith Joseph and David "two brains" Willets has shifted itself to the lowest common denominator of intellect. It has prostituted itself and sold off its good name and future to appeal to a simplistic nationalist message that appeals to Boris fan-boys like you. The Conservative Party is the New Stupid Party

noneoftheabove said:

Chris said:

So after last night, do people think it's out of the question that Johnson will go for broke next month - refuse to request an extension, refuse to resign, refuse to accept a judgment of the Supreme Court?

Its irrelevant if he does so, he will be turfed out before it gets to the Supreme Court.

By a Vote of No Confidence? For one thing he would still be PM after that. For another, if he was really going for broke, he could try to prorogue Parliament again.

isam said:

Interesting adverts on ITV during the RWC from the government, helping people to sort out travel arrangements etc ‘when we leave the EU on Oct 31’

Boris is so obviously setting the opposition up to be the anti democrats in the forthcoming GE. A layman watching that ad would not think there were any chance that we won’t be leaving on that date

Boris voted against May's deal twice, and only Brave Sir Robin'd at the last moment. He did his bit to torpedo May's deal. He's as much an 'anti-democrat' as the ERGers, hardcore remainers or Labour.

It's also odd to see incorrectly proroguing parliament as being a 'democratic' move.

bigjohnowls said:

noneoftheabove said:

bigjohnowls said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1177158135355719682

Boris or Jezza Binary Choice


Voters decide. Every vote for Tory Swinson is a vote for Jester/ Cummings.

Ther only 2 possible outcomes.

No, there are endless permutations all of which are different results with different outcomes in terms of policy. What you write is palpably and clearly false. Given most of the LDs votes are coming from the educated your simplistic reduction is unlikely to cut much ice.

Only 2 PMs are possible

LDs know that in their hearts

LAB 24 LD 22 Tory PM

LAB 34 LD 12 LAB PM PEOPLES VOTE

It is perfectly plausible that in a minority govt it is neither Boris or Corbyn that becomes PM as they are too divisive. And as we are seeing being PM on its own isnt particularly powerful, you cannot do what you want without the consent of parliament. Every single seat is valuable within parliament when the forecast is no-one winning.

noneoftheabove said:

isam said:

Pulpstar said:

nunuone said:

So many remainers are complaining about Boris's bad behaviour.

Lol. They had a perfectly reasonable, and amenable PM in May and they treated her like shit.

So, why exactly should Boris "tone it down"? I say Boris should double down.

As evidenced by both the ultra-leave and ultra-remain factions, May had completely internalised the compromise at the heart of the issue.

And yes she was treated disgracefully for doing so.

Yes the Remain side didn’t, and don’t want to compromise. If they did, they’d have voted for Mays agreement with the EU. They have always wanted to have another go or just revoke.

May was left a rotten hand, played it well and was treated disgracefully

Yes the Tories didnt, and dont want to compromise. If they did theyd have voted for Customs Union agreement with the EU. They have always wanted to have another go or just no deal.

Poor effort. If they’d have wanted No deal we’d have left with no deal by now.

Dadge said:

edmundintokyo said:

bigjohnowls said:

Voters decide. Every vote for Tory Swinson is a vote for Jester/ Cummings.

General rule: In a seat with a Labour MP, this is correct. In a seat without a Labour MP, this is the exact opposite of correct.

Not correct in Southampton Itchen, is it.

Probably not, but probably also not counter-productive in that if Lab vs Con are going backwards, as it currently looks like they will, and it's leave-ish but without much of a UKIP history therefore not much expectation of Con splitting with BXP, Lab aren't going to take it.

geoffw said:

Cyclefree said:

..snip..

I was referring to how Irishmen who fought with British forces were treated after they returned home after the war. They were I believe forbidden from working for the government. Not something of which Ireland can be proud.

3rd May 1945:
the Taoiseach and Minister for External Affairs, Éamon de Valera, accompanied by the Secretary of External Affairs, Joseph Walshe, ‘called on Dr Hempel, the German minister, last evening, to express his condolences’. The condolences were for Hitler who had committed suicide on 30 April. The Irish Times was prevented by the censor from publishing the following report from Reuter on 3 May: ‘Éire delegation mourns Hitler. Lisbon, May 3. The Éireann Minister in Lisbon today hoisted the German swastika at half mast over the legation as a sign of mourning for Hitler’.
https://www.historyireland.com/20th-century-contemporary-history/de-valera-hitler-the-visit-of-condolence-may-1945/

Did British and US governments send condolences on the death of Stalin? Would that have been more or less justifiable, or about the same?

JosiasJessop said:

noneoftheabove said:

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Andy_JS said:

https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1176999988599099394

Weirdly, I don't remember the Mercury Prizes being dished out in the chamber of the House of Commons.

You're missing the point. Whilst one does not excuse the other, Labour MPs suggest they are concerned about all threats and intimations of violence towards members of the house, not just their own side.

I'd argue that showing a decapitated head of the PM on national TV is an order of magnitude more serious than Boris' comment last night. Yet there was pretty much silence.

In the current febrile atmosphere, it's the duty of everyone to condemn this sort of thing - even it's targeted at your enemies.

It shouldnt have been allowed on national TV. Artists have always been edgy and distasteful and their right to do so is an important part of art and free speech, but it doesnt need to be national TV and it should be criticised. It was widely criticised given it only has a niche audience in the first place.

You are the one missing the point if you think the PM should have the same right to be edgy, distasteful and flirt with violence as a random minor artist.

But the two cases are different. I'm not defending Boris (see my post first thing this morning), but what Boris said is much less serious than the decapitated head 'stunt'. Boris should not have said what he said, and he should apologise, but again, it's up to all of us to get the heat out of this febrile atmosphere.

And that includes when it is against 'the enemy'.

Yes I agree with that, both sides should be reigned in and the best criticism would come from their own side. Bringing a random minor artist outside of party politics (afaik) into the conversation is a huge distraction.

Being PM used to mean something. A position of responsibility and duty. For all her faults to PM May it meant something. To the current occupant it is a vehicle for self promotion without responsibility or duty.

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/p_surridge/status/1177147781728931840

Look at the Conservative vote share in the Level 4 group!

No real surprise, the Tories now do better with skilled working class Leavers than upper middle class Remainers and the LDs lead with graduates.

Even in 2015 under Cameron the Tories only won graduates narrowly and by less than they won overall

It is a massive surprise. However much you try and spin it in your Comical Ali fashion it demonstrates that the Conservative Party, the Party of Disraeli, Keith Joseph and David "two brains" Willets has shifted itself to the lowest common denominator of intellect. It has prostituted itself and sold off its good name and future to appeal to a simplistic nationalist message that appeals to Boris fan-boys like you. The Conservative Party is the New Stupid Party

Not true, especially as about 30% of voters are graduates now compared to 10% 40 years ago and the older you are the more likely you are to vote Tory.

However it is true to say now that if you are a earning well and or a home owner but not a graduate you will be more likely to vote Tory, if you are a graduate you will be more likely to vote Liberal Democrat and if you are poor or a graduate who works in the public sector you will still likely vote Labour.

Disraeli and Thatcher were of course full of populist nationalism to appeal to the skilled working class vote and Thatcher's right to buy was focused on them and won many to the Tories while many graduates voted SDP

Noo said:

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/p_surridge/status/1177147781728931840

Look at the Conservative vote share in the Level 4 group!

The more you know..

Does that suggest Tory voters are unedcated? I thought provincial worked quite well in the non geographical sense of the word

bigjohnowls said:

isam said:

Pulpstar said:

nunuone said:

So many remainers are complaining about Boris's bad behaviour.

Lol. They had a perfectly reasonable, and amenable PM in May and they treated her like shit.

So, why exactly should Boris "tone it down"? I say Boris should double down.

As evidenced by both the ultra-leave and ultra-remain factions, May had completely internalised the compromise at the heart of the issue.

And yes she was treated disgracefully for doing so.

Yes the Remain side didn’t, and don’t want to compromise. If they did, they’d have voted for Mays agreement with the EU. They have always wanted to have another go or just revoke.

May was left a rotten hand, played it well and was treated disgracefully

She called GE 2017

Then she ignored calls to agree cross party red lines from the outset after GE 2017.

She failed to agree a good deal

She was a complete and utter failure

The cross party red lines were to rule out any deal. This was shown by Labour's five tests and tye indicative votes. When May asked for cross-party ideas, the Labour Party ran a social media campaign mocking her for being out of ideas.

noneoftheabove said:

JosiasJessop said:

noneoftheabove said:

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Andy_JS said:

https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1176999988599099394

Weirdly, I don't remember the Mercury Prizes being dished out in the chamber of the House of Commons.

You're missing the point. Whilst one does not excuse the other, Labour MPs suggest they are concerned about all threats and intimations of violence towards members of the house, not just their own side.

I'd argue that showing a decapitated head of the PM on national TV is an order of magnitude more serious than Boris' comment last night. Yet there was pretty much silence.

In the current febrile atmosphere, it's the duty of everyone to condemn this sort of thing - even it's targeted at your enemies.

It shouldnt have been allowed on national TV. Artists have always been edgy and distasteful and their right to do so is an important part of art and free speech, but it doesnt need to be national TV and it should be criticised. It was widely criticised given it only has a niche audience in the first place.

You are the one missing the point if you think the PM should have the same right to be edgy, distasteful and flirt with violence as a random minor artist.

But the two cases are different. I'm not defending Boris (see my post first thing this morning), but what Boris said is much less serious than the decapitated head 'stunt'. Boris should not have said what he said, and he should apologise, but again, it's up to all of us to get the heat out of this febrile atmosphere.

And that includes when it is against 'the enemy'.

Yes I agree with that, both sides should be reigned in and the best criticism would come from their own side. Bringing a random minor artist outside of party politics (afaik) into the conversation is a huge distraction.

Being PM used to mean something. A position of responsibility and duty. For all her faults to PM May it meant something. To the current occupant it is a vehicle for self promotion without responsibility or duty.

There are many factors at play, but I would suggest three are most important: the act, the actor and the platform.

A musician holding up a fake decapitated head on TV is bad. But his innate power compared to the PM is low, even if the act is more problematic and the platform has potential for wider audience. The PM at the dispatch box describing legislation that has passed the house as a "Surrender Bill" is unacceptable. It is full on stab in the back territory similar to that used by far right conspiracy theorists throughout history. It is dangerous and unbecoming of the office.

bigjohnowls said:

Breaking Boris doesnt want MPs killed - No10 statement

Is there a tweet missing from this or is it a wry quip ?

eek said:

Gabs2 said:

Noo said:

GIN1138 said:

Interesting to see Bercow calling out Parliament for being "toxic" when he, more than anyone else, has helped to create the impasse we're currently at and whip up the toxicity.

Silly comment. You've gone giddy. Drink a glass of water.

It is true. Rather than be impartial, he overruled his clerks to change long established rules to help his preferred side. He has also regularly guided Remainers on parliamentary tactics including secretive meetings with Dominic Grieve.

It seems a lot of people don't understand what Parliamentary Democracy actually means and what is required for it to work.

Parliament is not the tick boxing exercise many Brexiters seem to want it to be.

I would have thought the parliamentary clerks that ruled the opposite way to Bercow had a pretty good idea of what is required for parliamentary democracy to work.

Gabs2 said:

eek said:

Gabs2 said:

Noo said:

GIN1138 said:

Interesting to see Bercow calling out Parliament for being "toxic" when he, more than anyone else, has helped to create the impasse we're currently at and whip up the toxicity.

Silly comment. You've gone giddy. Drink a glass of water.

It is true. Rather than be impartial, he overruled his clerks to change long established rules to help his preferred side. He has also regularly guided Remainers on parliamentary tactics including secretive meetings with Dominic Grieve.

It seems a lot of people don't understand what Parliamentary Democracy actually means and what is required for it to work.

Parliament is not the tick boxing exercise many Brexiters seem to want it to be.

I would have thought the parliamentary clerks that ruled the opposite way to Bercow had a pretty good idea of what is required for parliamentary democracy to work.

Any actual evidence to confirm the clerks thought things were different.

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/p_surridge/status/1177147781728931840

Look at the Conservative vote share in the Level 4 group!

No real surprise, the Tories now do better with skilled working class Leavers than upper middle class Remainers and the LDs lead with graduates.

Even in 2015 under Cameron the Tories only won graduates narrowly and by less than they won overall

It is a massive surprise. However much you try and spin it in your Comical Ali fashion it demonstrates that the Conservative Party, the Party of Disraeli, Keith Joseph and David "two brains" Willets has shifted itself to the lowest common denominator of intellect. It has prostituted itself and sold off its good name and future to appeal to a simplistic nationalist message that appeals to Boris fan-boys like you. The Conservative Party is the New Stupid Party

Not true, especially as about 30% of voters are graduates now compared to 10% 40 years ago and the older you are the more likely you are to vote Tory.

However it is true to say now that if you are a earning well and or a home owner but not a graduate you will be more likely to vote Tory, if you are a graduate you will be more likely to vote Liberal Democrat and if you are poor or a graduate who works in the public sector you will still likely vote Labour.

Disraeli and Thatcher were of course full of populist nationalism to appeal to the skilled working class vote and Thatcher's right to buy was focused on them and won many to the Tories while many graduates voted SDP

It is related to the principles of thought leadership, which is why it is a very bad thing for the Conservative Party however you try to spin it. As you are a fan of Boris Johnson, I do not expect you to understand.

Speaking of Israel it looks like the wily old fox Bibi might be staying as leader of the Knesset, or at least forcing another election.

https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1177147467160281088

SouthamObserver said:

Jacques Chirac est mort.

Just noticed, Chirac was a titan of French and European politics as both PM and French President, a conservative but also an opponent of the Iraq War and the Le Pens albeit tainted by scandal in later years. RIP

TheWhiteRabbit said:

franklyn said:

A smart move by Luciana Berger to stand in Finchley and Golders Green. It is an area with a very large Jewish population, and many years ago, the old Liberal Party ran Finchley Council, so there is some sort of "pedigree"

Against a Tory! There is a decent chance she will split the anti-Labour vote and let them in. Strange risk to take IMO

No, that is a nailed on LD gain.

Let’s imagine the EU referendum was a referendum on gay marriage, and YES won 52/48...

It is now for the HofC, who mainly supported NO, to make sense of what it means.

The PM suggests allowing churches, mosques etc the choice of whether to marry gay people or not, while all registry offices are compelled to. A small section of YES MPs vote against the proposal as they want gay marriage to be allowed in every place traditional marriage is currently. A load of MPs who campaigned against gay marriage,but pledged to accept the referendum result, now vote against the PMs deal because the YES team did, and three years later, still no gay couple are allowed to marry

I can’t believe the people who are fine with us still not having left the EU would be as comfortable with that scenario

Pulpstar said:

Speaking of Israel it looks like the wily old fox Bibi might be staying as leader of the Knesset, or at least forcing another election.

Well I suppose either helps keep him out of jail, allegedly.

DecrepitJohnL said:

franklyn said:

A smart move by Luciana Berger to stand in Finchley and Golders Green. It is an area with a very large Jewish population, and many years ago, the old Liberal Party ran Finchley Council, so there is some sort of "pedigree"

As I said earlier, it is a terrible move owing to the danger of affirming the antisemitic twats who drove Luciana Berger out of Liverpool.

It's a remain seat where Labour who were second don't have much of a chance due to the Jewish population. It's the closest thing to a certain Lib Dem of a seat where they were third.

Theuniondivvie said:

geoffw said:

Cyclefree said:

..snip..

I was referring to how Irishmen who fought with British forces were treated after they returned home after the war. They were I believe forbidden from working for the government. Not something of which Ireland can be proud.

3rd May 1945:
the Taoiseach and Minister for External Affairs, Éamon de Valera, accompanied by the Secretary of External Affairs, Joseph Walshe, ‘called on Dr Hempel, the German minister, last evening, to express his condolences’. The condolences were for Hitler who had committed suicide on 30 April. The Irish Times was prevented by the censor from publishing the following report from Reuter on 3 May: ‘Éire delegation mourns Hitler. Lisbon, May 3. The Éireann Minister in Lisbon today hoisted the German swastika at half mast over the legation as a sign of mourning for Hitler’.
https://www.historyireland.com/20th-century-contemporary-history/de-valera-hitler-the-visit-of-condolence-may-1945/

Did British and US governments send condolences on the death of Stalin? Would that have been more or less justifiable, or about the same?

I don't know, perhaps you can tell me. But anyway your attempt at some kind of equivalence there doesn't work because we were allies of the Soviet Union. Was Ireland allied with the axis powers? No, it was nominally neutral. But the condolences reveal something else.

TheJezziah said:

noneoftheabove said:

bigjohnowls said:

noneoftheabove said:

bigjohnowls said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1177158135355719682

Boris or Jezza Binary Choice


Voters decide. Every vote for Tory Swinson is a vote for Jester/ Cummings.

Ther only 2 possible outcomes.

No, there are endless permutations all of which are different results with different outcomes in terms of policy. What you write is palpably and clearly false. Given most of the LDs votes are coming from the educated your simplistic reduction is unlikely to cut much ice.

Only 2 PMs are possible

LDs know that in their hearts

LAB 24 LD 22 Tory PM

LAB 34 LD 12 LAB PM PEOPLES VOTE

It is perfectly plausible that in a minority govt it is neither Boris or Corbyn that becomes PM as they are too divisive. And as we are seeing being PM on its own isnt particularly powerful, you cannot do what you want without the consent of parliament. Every single seat is valuable within parliament when the forecast is no-one winning.

I don't see how we don't keep having elections until one of them is PM?

Maybe one side gives up eventually but one election isn't going to be enough for anyone to give up.

It depends on the numbers. If Sturgeon and Swinson say they would work with Thornberry, Starmer but not Corbyn, or Stewart, Hunt but not Johnson, others could emerge.

It could still be Farage or Swinson as the biggest party leader if the election is in mid 2020 and the Tories implode, which doesnt seem impossible with the current trajectory.

noneoftheabove said:

isam said:

noneoftheabove said:

isam said:

Pulpstar said:

nunuone said:

So many remainers are complaining about Boris's bad behaviour.

Lol. They had a perfectly reasonable, and amenable PM in May and they treated her like shit.

So, why exactly should Boris "tone it down"? I say Boris should double down.

As evidenced by both the ultra-leave and ultra-remain factions, May had completely internalised the compromise at the heart of the issue.

And yes she was treated disgracefully for doing so.

Yes the Remain side didn’t, and don’t want to compromise. If they did, they’d have voted for Mays agreement with the EU. They have always wanted to have another go or just revoke.

May was left a rotten hand, played it well and was treated disgracefully

Yes the Tories didnt, and dont want to compromise. If they did theyd have voted for Customs Union agreement with the EU. They have always wanted to have another go or just no deal.

Poor effort. If they’d have wanted No deal we’d have left with no deal by now.

Poor effort. If the remainer elite MPs wanted revoke we would have revoked by now.

I’m sorry but your having a mare. Why would the Tories, who you say want no deal, also have ‘wanted to have another go’?

Bizarre

williamglenn said:

isam said:

Let’s imagine the EU referendum was a referendum on gay marriage, and YES won 52/48...

It is now for the HofC, who mainly supported NO, to make sense of what it means.

The PM suggests allowing churches, mosques etc the choice of whether to marry gay people or not, while all registry offices are compelled to. A small section of YES MPs vote against the proposal as they want gay marriage to be allowed in every place traditional marriage is currently. A load of MPs who campaigned against gay marriage,but pledged to accept the referendum result, now vote against the PMs deal because the YES team did, and three years later, still no gay couple are allowed to marry

I can’t believe the people who are fine with us still not having left the EU would be as comfortable with that scenario

Your point is presumably that it was a mistake not to have a precisely defined version of Brexit agreed before the referendum?

No, it’s that MPs shouldn’t have been given a vote on the deal.

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/p_surridge/status/1177147781728931840

Look at the Conservative vote share in the Level 4 group!

No real surprise, the Tories now do better with skilled working class Leavers than upper middle class Remainers and the LDs lead with graduates.

Even in 2015 under Cameron the Tories only won graduates narrowly and by less than they won overall

It is a massive surprise. However much you try and spin it in your Comical Ali fashion it demonstrates that the Conservative Party, the Party of Disraeli, Keith Joseph and David "two brains" Willets has shifted itself to the lowest common denominator of intellect. It has prostituted itself and sold off its good name and future to appeal to a simplistic nationalist message that appeals to Boris fan-boys like you. The Conservative Party is the New Stupid Party

Not true, especially as about 30% of voters are graduates now compared to 10% 40 years ago and the older you are the more likely you are to vote Tory.

However it is true to say now that if you are a earning well and or a home owner but not a graduate you will be more likely to vote Tory, if you are a graduate you will be more likely to vote Liberal Democrat and if you are poor or a graduate who works in the public sector you will still likely vote Labour.

Disraeli and Thatcher were of course full of populist nationalism to appeal to the skilled working class vote and Thatcher's right to buy was focused on them and won many to the Tories while many graduates voted SDP

It is related to the principles of thought leadership, which is why it is a very bad thing for the Conservative Party however you try to spin it. As you are a fan of Boris Johnson, I do not expect you to understand.

There are still plenty of graduates, even postgraduates, working for the Tories who can be policy wonks.

However you go where the votes are, it is the lower middle class and skilled working class who will win a majority for the Tories as they did for Thatcher, Major and Cameron not the graduate class (and as the poll shows graduates are voting LD not Corbyn Labour anyway)

Cameron not of the graduate class???????

williamglenn said:

isam said:

Let’s imagine the EU referendum was a referendum on gay marriage, and YES won 52/48...

It is now for the HofC, who mainly supported NO, to make sense of what it means.

The PM suggests allowing churches, mosques etc the choice of whether to marry gay people or not, while all registry offices are compelled to. A small section of YES MPs vote against the proposal as they want gay marriage to be allowed in every place traditional marriage is currently. A load of MPs who campaigned against gay marriage,but pledged to accept the referendum result, now vote against the PMs deal because the YES team did, and three years later, still no gay couple are allowed to marry

I can’t believe the people who are fine with us still not having left the EU would be as comfortable with that scenario

Your point is presumably that it was a mistake not to have a precisely defined version of Brexit agreed before the referendum?

I'm sure our SNP friends would be quite understanding if, having won independence 52:48, the House of Commons refused to implement that independence because the issue of the currency wasn't resolved on the ballot paper.....

eek said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. grss, the EU does deserve some blame too.

The sequencing is demented, and the demand for regulatory annexation was ridiculous.

Even when the deal was clearly doomed in the Commons they refused to countenance any change (beyond the UK submitting to the customs union, contrary to what both sides in the referendum campaign said would happen).

Going further back, we should've had a referendum, as promised by all major parties at the time, on Lisbon. EU and pro-EU types certainly don't want us to leave but this crop that's being harvested was, to a large extent, planted by them.

Any sequencing should have been ruled out immediately. The fact we allowed the EU to impose it is a part of this mess.

How could the UK have ruled it out? The divorce issues wouldn't have changed no matter how long the UK sat on its hands.

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/p_surridge/status/1177147781728931840

Look at the Conservative vote share in the Level 4 group!

No real surprise, the Tories now do better with skilled working class Leavers than upper middle class Remainers and the LDs lead with graduates.

Even in 2015 under Cameron the Tories only won graduates narrowly and by less than they won overall

It is a massive surprise. However much you try and spin it in your Comical Ali fashion it demonstrates that the Conservative Party, the Party of Disraeli, Keith Joseph and David "two brains" Willets has shifted itself to the lowest common denominator of intellect. It has prostituted itself and sold off its good name and future to appeal to a simplistic nationalist message that appeals to Boris fan-boys like you. The Conservative Party is the New Stupid Party

Not true, especially as about 30% of voters are graduates now compared to 10% 40 years ago and the older you are the more likely you are to vote Tory.

However it is true to say now that if you are a earning well and or a home owner but not a graduate you will be more likely to vote Tory, if you are a graduate you will be more likely to vote Liberal Democrat and if you are poor or a graduate who works in the public sector you will still likely vote Labour.

Disraeli and Thatcher were of course full of populist nationalism to appeal to the skilled working class vote and Thatcher's right to buy was focused on them and won many to the Tories while many graduates voted SDP

It is related to the principles of thought leadership, which is why it is a very bad thing for the Conservative Party however you try to spin it. As you are a fan of Boris Johnson, I do not expect you to understand.

There are still plenty of graduates, even postgraduates, working for the Tories who can be policy wonks.

However you go where the votes are, it is the lower middle class and skilled working class who will win a majority for the Tories as they did for Thatcher, Major and Cameron not the graduate class (and as the poll shows graduates are voting LD not Corbyn Labour anyway)

Cameron not of the graduate class???????

Sorry, misread.

MarqueeMark said:

williamglenn said:

isam said:

Let’s imagine the EU referendum was a referendum on gay marriage, and YES won 52/48...

It is now for the HofC, who mainly supported NO, to make sense of what it means.

The PM suggests allowing churches, mosques etc the choice of whether to marry gay people or not, while all registry offices are compelled to. A small section of YES MPs vote against the proposal as they want gay marriage to be allowed in every place traditional marriage is currently. A load of MPs who campaigned against gay marriage,but pledged to accept the referendum result, now vote against the PMs deal because the YES team did, and three years later, still no gay couple are allowed to marry

I can’t believe the people who are fine with us still not having left the EU would be as comfortable with that scenario

Your point is presumably that it was a mistake not to have a precisely defined version of Brexit agreed before the referendum?

I'm sure our SNP friends would be quite understanding if, having won independence 52:48, the House of Commons refused to implement that independence because the issue of the currency wasn't resolved on the ballot paper.....

This doesn't work because in your analogy the House of Commons is to Scotland what the European Parliament is to the UK. The equivalent would be a referendum won for independence 52:48, followed by a Scottish Parliamentary election which produced no clear winner.

Mexicanpete said:

bigjohnowls said:

Breaking Boris doesnt want MPs killed - No10 statement

If that is genuine can we have a citation please?

BBC just read out a No 10 statement


MPs on all sides should not have to suffer death threats or fear physical violence

geoffw said:

Theuniondivvie said:

geoffw said:

Cyclefree said:

..snip..

I was referring to how Irishmen who fought with British forces were treated after they returned home after the war. They were I believe forbidden from working for the government. Not something of which Ireland can be proud.

3rd May 1945:
the Taoiseach and Minister for External Affairs, Éamon de Valera, accompanied by the Secretary of External Affairs, Joseph Walshe, ‘called on Dr Hempel, the German minister, last evening, to express his condolences’. The condolences were for Hitler who had committed suicide on 30 April. The Irish Times was prevented by the censor from publishing the following report from Reuter on 3 May: ‘Éire delegation mourns Hitler. Lisbon, May 3. The Éireann Minister in Lisbon today hoisted the German swastika at half mast over the legation as a sign of mourning for Hitler’.
https://www.historyireland.com/20th-century-contemporary-history/de-valera-hitler-the-visit-of-condolence-may-1945/

Did British and US governments send condolences on the death of Stalin? Would that have been more or less justifiable, or about the same?

I don't know, perhaps you can tell me. But anyway your attempt at some kind of equivalence there doesn't work because we were allies of the Soviet Union. Was Ireland allied with the axis powers? No, it was nominally neutral. But the condolences reveal something else.

We were allies of the SU in 1953? Well, there's a thing.
Well done though on not expressing an opinion on whether it was right to send condolences on the death of the worst mass murdering dictator in history (™PB Tories, when they're not having a go at Maoist McDonnell or indulging in drivel about Hitler being a 'socialist').

nunuone said:

We need some regional polling.

Could do with one of those 50000 YouGov polls from the last election. I hope we get one soon

Mexicanpete said:

MarqueeMark said:

williamglenn said:

isam said:

Let’s imagine the EU referendum was a referendum on gay marriage, and YES won 52/48...

It is now for the HofC, who mainly supported NO, to make sense of what it means.

The PM suggests allowing churches, mosques etc the choice of whether to marry gay people or not, while all registry offices are compelled to. A small section of YES MPs vote against the proposal as they want gay marriage to be allowed in every place traditional marriage is currently. A load of MPs who campaigned against gay marriage,but pledged to accept the referendum result, now vote against the PMs deal because the YES team did, and three years later, still no gay couple are allowed to marry

I can’t believe the people who are fine with us still not having left the EU would be as comfortable with that scenario

Your point is presumably that it was a mistake not to have a precisely defined version of Brexit agreed before the referendum?

I'm sure our SNP friends would be quite understanding if, having won independence 52:48, the House of Commons refused to implement that independence because the issue of the currency wasn't resolved on the ballot paper.....

That is a poor analogy.

Just because you don't like it and have no answer doesn't make it poor.....

williamglenn said:

MarqueeMark said:

williamglenn said:

isam said:

Let’s imagine the EU referendum was a referendum on gay marriage, and YES won 52/48...

It is now for the HofC, who mainly supported NO, to make sense of what it means.

The PM suggests allowing churches, mosques etc the choice of whether to marry gay people or not, while all registry offices are compelled to. A small section of YES MPs vote against the proposal as they want gay marriage to be allowed in every place traditional marriage is currently. A load of MPs who campaigned against gay marriage,but pledged to accept the referendum result, now vote against the PMs deal because the YES team did, and three years later, still no gay couple are allowed to marry

I can’t believe the people who are fine with us still not having left the EU would be as comfortable with that scenario

Your point is presumably that it was a mistake not to have a precisely defined version of Brexit agreed before the referendum?

I'm sure our SNP friends would be quite understanding if, having won independence 52:48, the House of Commons refused to implement that independence because the issue of the currency wasn't resolved on the ballot paper.....

This doesn't work because in your analogy the House of Commons is to Scotland what the European Parliament is to the UK. The equivalent would be a referendum won for independence 52:48, followed by a Scottish Parliamentary election which produced no clear winner.

...after MPs of all sides, elected on a pledge to honour the referendum result, had voted to enact Scottish independence

bigjohnowls said:

Mexicanpete said:

bigjohnowls said:

Breaking Boris doesnt want MPs killed - No10 statement

If that is genuine can we have a citation please?

BBC just read out a No 10 statement


MPs on all sides should not have to suffer death threats or fear physical violence

Thanks

If I were a cynic which I am, that sounds almost like a dog whistle to crazies.

TheJezziah said:

noneoftheabove said:

TheJezziah said:

noneoftheabove said:

bigjohnowls said:

noneoftheabove said:

bigjohnowls said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1177158135355719682

Boris or Jezza Binary Choice


Voters decide. Every vote for Tory Swinson is a vote for Jester/ Cummings.

Ther only 2 possible outcomes.

No, there are endless permutations all of which are different results with different outcomes in terms of policy. What you write is palpably and clearly false. Given most of the LDs votes are coming from the educated your simplistic reduction is unlikely to cut much ice.

Only 2 PMs are possible

LDs know that in their hearts

LAB 24 LD 22 Tory PM

LAB 34 LD 12 LAB PM PEOPLES VOTE

It is perfectly plausible that in a minority govt it is neither Boris or Corbyn that becomes PM as they are too divisive. And as we are seeing being PM on its own isnt particularly powerful, you cannot do what you want without the consent of parliament. Every single seat is valuable within parliament when the forecast is no-one winning.

I don't see how we don't keep having elections until one of them is PM?

Maybe one side gives up eventually but one election isn't going to be enough for anyone to give up.

It depends on the numbers. If Sturgeon and Swinson say they would work with Thornberry, Starmer but not Corbyn, or Stewart, Hunt but not Johnson, others could emerge.

It could still be Farage or Swinson as the biggest party leader if the election is in mid 2020 and the Tories implode, which doesnt seem impossible with the current trajectory.

I assume we are having an election pretty soon, I don't think Labour members will let others choose their leader.

Edit: Also SNP seem happy to work with Labour under its current leadership. Only the Lib Dems really.

The SNP could probably win some seats in England such is the paucity of quality in our main parties.