politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Another conference boost for Jo Swinson – this time from LAB

HYUFD said:

Yorkcity said:

HYUFD said:

bigjohnowls said:

There’ll either be a hard right Tory government offering a hard Brexit, or an anti-austerity Labour government offering a referendum with Remain on the ballot, in which a large majority of Labour will campaign for Remain.

Everything else is noise.

The LDs were ahead of Labour with Yougov last week even before today's Labour conference shambles

Yes but if we leave on 311019 as you state Boris Johnson will do.
The Lib dem policy would be then re-join ?
Do you think that would be popular ?
My guess is most people would want to move on to domestic issues.

Like 32 hour weeks and abolishing private schools you mean?

Yes and free prescriptions in England and the social care provision.

Re the abolition of private schools.

If a private school had 100% foreign pupils (foreign royalty, oligarch kids etc) would it still need to be abolished ?

I think the Supreme Court ruling at 10:30am tomorrow and its ramifications will knock the Labour conference and Thomas Cook off the news pages. The SC ruling will dominate for the rest of the week.

Floater said:

OldKingCole said:

TBH Labour's position doesn't seem too silly to me.
AIUI Labour wins the next election. Labour Govt. sits down with the EU to agree a future relationship, allowing for N. Ireland, Gibraltar Free Movement (or not) etc.
Govt and EU agree a position. Labour goes back to the country; Our Deal or Remain.

As a Remainer that seems to me to be a sensible policy.

So explain why the EU would give them a good deal?

What possible incentive do they have.

Plus some of the top people in the cult are already saying they will campaign against it - campaign against their own deal.

If that isn't silly what the hell is?

This idea that Labour can't "negotiate a good deal" when they might campaign to remain afterwards is a red herring. We are talking about negotiating small changes to the WA/PD not the complex trade negotiations that will only happen when/if the UK leaves.
I have come to the reluctant conclusion that the Labour leadership's position on this is actually the right one. If you want to honour the 2016 vote, which we need to, then we need to negotiate an implementable withdrawal from the EU. But given the potential for people to have changed their minds when faced with a concrete plan to leave rather than the nebulous bullshit offered by the Leave campaign, then it's right to offer a second referendum.
Whether Labour officially campaigns for Remain or not is academic, because it is up to the public and I think they will make their mind up without the input of J Corbyn - who after all was as useful as a chocolate teapot last time around anyway.

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

nichomar said:

ydoethur said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

TheJezziah said:

nico67 said:

.

I can see removing charitable status, or charging VAT on school fees or one of a number of other things happening. I don't think abolishing private schools is going to be in the next manifesto.

The Labour conference have just voted abolishing private schools to be official Labour Party policy

While I rarely agree with @charles his view that state schools should be good enough for people to not need private ones. Have always believed that but whilst people with influence don’t experience the problems of the the state system little will change.

Even if private schools were abolished people with influence would send their children to a grammar school or an outstanding sed instead of school fees

How do you 'send' your child to a grammar school? They have to pass an examination.

Well, if Corbyn could manage it they're clearly not terribly hard.

Money money money I believe

The really key point of this private schools policy is that it is massive and I say massive trojan horse for the state taking away private property whenever Momentum decide.

They are proposing to take away these schools' endowments, playing fields, buildings etc etc and redistribute.

Today, private schools. Tomorrow a house with a spare bedroom.

Under a Corbyn majority Government we would all live in state owned housing, work for nationalised companies and our children would attend bog standard comprehensives, choice and private property would be virtually non existent

Don’t forget the occasional holiday, supplied by the nationalised tour operator.

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

nichomar said:

ydoethur said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

TheJezziah said:

nico67 said:

.

I can see removing charitable status, or charging VAT on school fees or one of a number of other things happening. I don't think abolishing private schools is going to be in the next manifesto.

The Labour conference have just voted abolishing private schools to be official Labour Party policy

While I rarely agree with @charles his view that state schools should be good enough for people to not need private ones. Have always believed that but whilst people with influence don’t experience the problems of the the state system little will change.

Even if private schools were abolished people with influence would send their children to a grammar school or an outstanding sed instead of school fees

How do you 'send' your child to a grammar school? They have to pass an examination.

Well, if Corbyn could manage it they're clearly not terribly hard.

Money money money I believe

The really key point of this private schools policy is that it is massive and I say massive trojan horse for the state taking away private property whenever Momentum decide.

They are proposing to take away these schools' endowments, playing fields, buildings etc etc and redistribute.

Today, private schools. Tomorrow a house with a spare bedroom.

Under a Corbyn majority Government we would all live in state owned housing, work for nationalised companies and our children would attend bog standard comprehensives, choice and private property would be virtually non existent

Don’t forget the occasional holiday, supplied by the nationalised tour operator.

To approved worker compounds in Venezuela or Cuba.

CatMan said:

Floater said:

kle4 said:

I'm am however stunned people break out into songs about the leader. It's very odd to do so for very ordinary politicians.

its a cult

"Oh Borrrrrriiiisss Johnsssssooooonnn"

"No Brexit for Boris" fits the cadence nicely.

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

nichomar said:

ydoethur said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

TheJezziah said:

nico67 said:

All party conferences end up being echo chambers to a certain extent however the current Labour one is plumbing new depths .

The abolishing private schools is peak echo chamber , this policy is a gift to both the Tories and Lib Dems .

People like choices , parents even if they don’t currently have the money to send their children to private school might one day dream they might be able to do that.

This policy falls apart because it’s economically illiterate, those children currently in private schools will now have to be accommodated in the state sector . How many people will lose their jobs who currently work in private schools .

The policy smacks of a government telling parents we know better and restricting choice.

On top of this it smacks of hypocrisy , some Labour MPs have sent their children to private schools or they themselves went through that .

This policy is a vote loser and I can’t see anyway that this helps Labour in a GE.

I can see removing charitable status, or charging VAT on school fees or one of a number of other things happening. I don't think abolishing private schools is going to be in the next manifesto.

The Labour conference have just voted abolishing private schools to be official Labour Party policy

While I rarely agree with @charles his view that state schools should be good enough for people to not need private ones. Have always believed that but whilst people with influence don’t experience the problems of the the state system little will change.

Even if private schools were abolished people with influence would send their children to a grammar school or an outstanding sed instead of school fees

How do you 'send' your child to a grammar school? They have to pass an examination.

Well, if Corbyn could manage it they're clearly not terribly hard.

Money money money I believe

The really key point of this private schools policy is that it is massive and I say massive trojan horse for the state taking away private property whenever Momentum decide.

They are proposing to take away these schools' endowments, playing fields, buildings etc etc and redistribute.

Today, private schools. Tomorrow a house with a spare bedroom.

Garden tax.

We so soon forget the wing nut Lloyd Russell-Mole:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-mp-lloyd-russell-moyle-wants-to-nationalise-your-home-7nfhglbf3

Chris said:

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

nichomar said:

Interesting view
caroline cherry 🔶#ShortCummings#FBPE Retweeted

Nick Boles MP
@NickBoles
I have 5 A levels and degrees from Oxford and Harvard. Angela Rayner is a far better politician than I will ever be. And a far more admirable human being than the mean spirited snobs who sneer at her.

The context

https://twitter.com/allisonpearson/status/1176043087103238149?s=20

I’m sorry but is pathetic whilst I have limited sympathy for labour policy you denigrate a women who, against all odds, has achieved something in her life. There are many reasons why people get good grades and many reasons why some don’t but it isn’t the be and end all measurement of ones worth.

Call me old-fashioned, but I am a bit prejudiced against anyone who can't be bothered to spell correctly someone's surname - particularly when the subject is education.

The original tweet actually misspells her surname twice, in two different ways.

Barnesian said:

I think the Supreme Court ruling at 10:30am tomorrow and its ramifications will knock the Labour conference and Thomas Cook off the news pages. The SC ruling will dominate for the rest of the week.

Only if it goes against Johnson.
Which I can not see happening.

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/DMiliband/status/1176197121395105793?s=20

I hate to say this, but Mr "Bugger off to the States for some Green nonsense" David Miliband is hardly in a position to criticise somebody for a failure of leadership.

@justin124 said :

"A lot of LD support is 'easy come easy go'. Very little core support. Even post their own Conference, they remain third in the polls and some way below their 2010 levels. 12% is more likely than 20% at a GE."

...............................................................................

"Easy come, easy go" is a more apt metaphor for Labour support post 2017 general election.

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

Can now see a GE result something like Tories 30 to 35%, LDs 23%, Labour 22% after this vote

Using the latest YOuGOv figures for tactical voting by Lab and LDs, my tactical voting model, on your figures, gives:

Tories/Lab/LD

30/22/23 .... 293/225/62
35/22/23 .... 321/205/55

Tories would be on 346 seats in the latter scenario on UNS, the highest number of Tory MPs won by a Tory leader since Thatcher in 1987 and after tonight's vote I suspect you can count the LD tactical votes for Corbyn Labour on one hand

Most LDs are anti-Brexit and therefore anti-Tory and many will vote tactically for Lab, The YouGov poll indicates 35% will (and 65% won't). That's what I've used.

The Labour party position on Brexit hasn't changed, It is still equivocal but it does include a second referendum. I don't think it will change LibDem tactical voting behaviour much, but I think it will cause some more Labour supporters to defect to the LibDems.

LD tactical votes were already there in 2017 they will be down on then and my figures were on UNS from 2017

It was a much lower LD base in 2017. In your scenario we are looking at a base of 23% LDs considering whether to tactically vote, not the 7% LDs of 2017.

Yes but the peoples vote peoples Who have begged Corbyn for a peoples vote for years now hate him because .... checks notes...he gives them a peoples vote?

another_richard said:

Re the abolition of private schools.

If a private school had 100% foreign pupils (foreign royalty, oligarch kids etc) would it still need to be abolished ?

If Eton was abolished it would not be able to even if it tried, most foreign royals and oligarchs would send their kids to expensive boarding schools in Switzerland or the USA instead

kinabalu said:

The right decision. The policy is a good one.

And contrary to much drivel spouted it is VERY easy for people - other than the ultra dense - to understand.

It depends. The policy as I understand is that Corbyn will renegotiate the deal and then put the renegotiated deal to the electorate without any recommendation. If the plan is to do this after winning an election then I can see the merit. But if it isn't it makes no sense at all and it can't be because if he hasn't won an election it wont be him negotiating a deal.

If it's a manifesto commitment I don't see who it would appeal to. Not everyone votes on Brexit alone but if they do on either side its got to be the worst of all worlds.

viewcode said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/DMiliband/status/1176197121395105793?s=20

I hate to say this, but Mr "Bugger off to the States for some Green nonsense" David Miliband is hardly in a position to criticise somebody for a failure of leadership.

Its Miliband and his ilk which was one of the leading causes of Corbyn becoming Labour leader:

The former foreign secretary has earned £125,000 for 15 days’ work since becoming a director of Sunderland football club in February 2011.

The figure is, pro rata, the equivalent of nearly £42,000 a week, or more than £2.1million a year.

In total, the South Shields Labour MP has registered nearly £1million of outside earnings since the 2010 Labour election.

After losing the Labour leadership to his younger brother Ed, Mr Miliband went on to make £985,315 from the public speaking circuit and his work as an adviser.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/9774016/David-Miliband-nets-125k-for-15-days-work-at-Sunderland-FC.html

ydoethur said:

another_richard said:

Re the abolition of private schools.

If a private school had 100% foreign pupils (foreign royalty, oligarch kids etc) would it still need to be abolished ?

There are several private schools in Staffordshire with large international intakes. The staff have explained to me that the reason they attract overseas students is because they can learn alongside British children. So I don't think that would be a major problem. It's not the selling point.

That said I believe there is such an institution in Coventry. There may be others.

The real issue is it would cause the implosion of the state sector. But Labour don't care about that, because they don't care about poor people, only rich ones.

It was more of a theoretical question.

I imagine private schools earn a few million for this country.

Roger said:

kinabalu said:

The right decision. The policy is a good one.

And contrary to much drivel spouted it is VERY easy for people - other than the ultra dense - to understand.

It depends. The policy as I understand is that Corbyn will renegotiate the deal and then put the renegotiated deal to the electorate without any recommendation. If the plan is to do this after winning an election then I can see the merit. But if it isn't it makes no sense at all and it can't be because if he hasn't won an election it wont be him negotiating a deal.

If it's a manifesto commitment I don't see who it would appeal to. Not everyone votes on Brexit alone but if they do on either side its got to be the worst of all worlds.

For Peoples Voters its a Peoples Vote with Remain on the Ballot

For Brexiteers its a chance to vote again for a better Deal than Mays which is what I will most likely do.

HYUFD said:

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

Can now see a GE result something like Tories 30 to 35%, LDs 23%, Labour 22% after this vote

Using the latest YOuGOv figures for tactical voting by Lab and LDs, my tactical voting model, on your figures, gives:

Tories/Lab/LD

30/22/23 .... 293/225/62
35/22/23 .... 321/205/55

Tories would be on 346 seats in the latter scenario on UNS, the highest number of Tory MPs won by a Tory leader since Thatcher in 1987 and after tonight's vote I suspect you can count the LD tactical votes for Corbyn Labour on one hand

Most LDs are anti-Brexit and therefore anti-Tory and many will vote tactically for Lab, The YouGov poll indicates 35% will (and 65% won't). That's what I've used.

The Labour party position on Brexit hasn't changed, It is still equivocal but it does include a second referendum. I don't think it will change LibDem tactical voting behaviour much, but I think it will cause some more Labour supporters to defect to the LibDems.

LD tactical votes were already there in 2017 they will be down on then and my figures were on UNS from 2017

It was a much lower LD base in 2017. In your scenario we are looking at a base of 23% LDs considering whether to tactically vote, not the 7% LDs of 2017.

Don't forget Brexit Party voters overwhelmingly prefer Boris to Corbyn as PM and could also tactically vote

How will they vote if Boris has been forced to extend A50, or more likely, resigned to allow Corbyn to do it? You've seen the latest ComRes polls today?

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1176087917149728768

MarqueeMark said:

Barnesian said:

I think the Supreme Court ruling at 10:30am tomorrow and its ramifications will knock the Labour conference and Thomas Cook off the news pages. The SC ruling will dominate for the rest of the week.

You really think that if they support the Govt. position, the rest of the week will be spent with all our public commentators saying "sorry we ever doubted you, Prime Minister....."

No, it will be spent with a lot of people saying it was wrong even if it was not legal, and fevered speculation about what the next move will be in the face of the defeat in Court, or Boris fans talking about extending prorogation etc.

I do think this is the worst possible outcome for Labour. Not because there's anything wrong with the Brexit policy in theory - I think it could be sold by a vaguely popular leader who everyone kind of knew was in the remain camp and argued that this was the right approach. But as the header points out, outside the Labour membership, Corbyn is about as popular as chilli eyedrops. There was that recent poll on people trusting Corbyn less than Johnson and everything at this conference has shown remainers why they shouldn't trust him.

It's shown us that he, and perhaps more importantly his acolytes, are much more lukewarm about remaining than even his supporters, and that he and his team are prepared to use the Labour membership's slavish unthinking loyalty to him, and party rules to try and crush dissent and rig things towards his desired outcome.

That being the case, if you're a remainer - why on Earth would you trust Labour to get into power, hold a special conference and then come out and wholeheartedly campaign for remain? Why wouldn't Labour, now safely ensconced in power, do exactly the same thing, and push a deal Corbyn and his acolytes say is good, or at the very least force a policy of neutrality on the grounds of Labour "unity"?

I was just thinking, after all the business wrecking policies that Labour are proposing, this 32hr a week thing...I presume we will all be grateful if we manage to even get that many hours of paid work.

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

ydoethur said:

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

nichomar said:

ydoethur said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

TheJezziah said:

nico67 said:

All party conferences end up being echo chambers to a certain extent however the current Labour one is plumbing new depths .

The

I can see removing charitable status, or charging VAT on school fees or one of a number of other things happening. I don't think abolishing private schools is going to be in the next manifesto.

The Labour conference have just voted abolishing private schools to be official Labour Party policy

While I rarely agree with @charles his view that state schools should be good enough for people to not need private ones. Have always believed that but whilst people with influence don’t experience the problems of the the state system little will change.

Even if private schools were abolished people with influence would send their children to a grammar school or an outstanding sed instead of school fees

How do you 'send' your child to a grammar school? They have to pass an examination.

Well, if Corbyn could manage it they're clearly not terribly hard.

Money money money I believe

The really key point of this private schools policy is that it is massive and I say massive trojan horse for the state taking away private property whenever Momentum decide.

They are proposing to take away these schools' endowments, playing fields, buildings etc etc and redistribute.

Today, private schools. Tomorrow a house with a spare bedroom.

Garden tax.

We so soon forget the wing nut Lloyd Russell-Mole:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-mp-lloyd-russell-moyle-wants-to-nationalise-your-home-7nfhglbf3

Yup, he told a rally Labour should not only take all sold ex council houses back into state hands but all privately owned homes full stop with all homeowners selling a property required to offer it to the local council first.

He is a Labour MP

Sounds like he is a communist who is masquerading as Labour.

Labour are now marxists masquerading as the Labour party.

Floater said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

ydoethur said:

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

nichomar said:

ydoethur said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

TheJezziah said:

nico67 said:

All party conferences end up being echo chambers to a certain extent however the current Labour one is plumbing new depths .

The

I can see removing charitable status, or charging VAT on school fees or one of a number of other things happening. I don't think abolishing private schools is going to be in the next manifesto.

The Labour conference have just voted abolishing private schools to be official Labour Party policy

While I rarely agree with @charles his view that state schools should be good enough for people to not need private ones. Have always believed that but whilst people with influence don’t experience the problems of the the state system little will change.

Even if private schools were abolished people with influence would send their children to a grammar school or an outstanding sed instead of school fees

How do you 'send' your child to a grammar school? They have to pass an examination.

Well, if Corbyn could manage it they're clearly not terribly hard.

Money money money I believe

The really key point of this private schools policy is that it is massive and I say massive trojan horse for the state taking away private property whenever Momentum decide.

They are proposing to take away these schools' endowments, playing fields, buildings etc etc and redistribute.

Today, private schools. Tomorrow a house with a spare bedroom.

Garden tax.

We so soon forget the wing nut Lloyd Russell-Mole:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-mp-lloyd-russell-moyle-wants-to-nationalise-your-home-7nfhglbf3

Yup, he told a rally Labour should not only take all sold ex council houses back into state hands but all privately owned homes full stop with all homeowners selling a property required to offer it to the local council first.

He is a Labour MP

Sounds like he is a communist who is masquerading as Labour.

Labour are now marxists masquerading as the Labour party.

Not much masquerading been going on this week....they are shouting loud and proud.

viewcode said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/DMiliband/status/1176197121395105793?s=20

I hate to say this, but Mr "Bugger off to the States for some Green nonsense" David Miliband is hardly in a position to criticise somebody for a failure of leadership.

"Green nonsense"?

International Rescue helps refugees and others displaced by war and humanitarian disasters. It was founded at the suggestion of Albert Einstein.

bigjohnowls said:

Roger said:

kinabalu said:

The right decision. The policy is a good one.

And contrary to much drivel spouted it is VERY easy for people - other than the ultra dense - to understand.

It depends. The policy as I understand is that Corbyn will renegotiate the deal and then put the renegotiated deal to the electorate without any recommendation. If the plan is to do this after winning an election then I can see the merit. But if it isn't it makes no sense at all and it can't be because if he hasn't won an election it wont be him negotiating a deal.

If it's a manifesto commitment I don't see who it would appeal to. Not everyone votes on Brexit alone but if they do on either side its got to be the worst of all worlds.

For Peoples Voters its a Peoples Vote with Remain on the Ballot

For Brexiteers its a chance to vote again for a better Deal than Mays which is what I will most likely do.

Where does this better deal come from, The EU know if the deal is crap we might stay.

Hardly incentivised are they.

ydoethur said:

JackW said:

@justin124 said :

"A lot of LD support is 'easy come easy go'. Very little core support. Even post their own Conference, they remain third in the polls and some way below their 2010 levels. 12% is more likely than 20% at a GE."

...............................................................................

"Easy come, easy go" is a more apt metaphor for Labour support post 2017 general election.

Or perhaps for Boris Johnson's personal relationships.

Easy come, then 'e's a go.

[Extraordinarily rude joke deleted]

bigjohnowls said:

There’ll either be a hard right Tory government offering a hard Brexit, or an anti-austerity Labour government offering a referendum with Remain on the ballot, in which a large majority of Labour will campaign for Remain.

Everything else is noise.

Logically you might be right but sadly the reality is that it's Corbyn that is going to deliver a Johnson majority.

It's not just that no remainer is going to trust Corbyn/Milne/McCluskey not to weasel out of the referendum commitment if they were ever elected but it's the rest of the baggage Corbyn carries with him. With someone like Hilary Benn as leader Labour would be 10 points clear right now.

If we end up with a majority Tory government you will not need to look any further than Jeremy Corbyn for the reason that we have it.

ydoethur said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

ydoethur said:

We so soon forget the wing nut Lloyd Russell-Mole:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-mp-lloyd-russell-moyle-wants-to-nationalise-your-home-7nfhglbf3

Yup, he told a rally Labour should not only take all sold ex council houses back into state hands but all privately owned homes full stop with all homeowners selling a property required to offer it to the local council first.

He is a Labour MP

Sounds like he is a communist who is masquerading as Labour.

He sounds more like a twit to me. Bear in mind this is a man who invites genocidal maniacs to the House of Commons:

https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/labour-mp-lloyd-russell-moyle-withdraws-parliamentary-invitation-to-houthi-representative-1.485776

Although in fairness he did later change his mind.

rottenborough said:

viewcode said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/DMiliband/status/1176197121395105793?s=20

I hate to say this, but Mr "Bugger off to the States for some Green nonsense" David Miliband is hardly in a position to criticise somebody for a failure of leadership.

"Green nonsense"?

International Rescue helps refugees and others displaced by war and humanitarian disasters. It was founded at the suggestion of Albert Einstein.

International Rescue? Thunderbirds are go!

TheJezziah said:

Thanks to the votes today Labour stand a chance at the next election also but at a lesser level delighted to see Watsons boys were defeated today.

Where does this leave the line about evil Corbyn going against the members and being anti democratic?

Such a shame....

I don't think you are going to get many people believing that today's stitch up was a true representation of the membership's views on Brexit.

https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1176216539651039234?s=21

state_go_away said:

viewcode said:

Every now and then I get a text or a letter that really warms my heart. I went to Belfast this year (I may have mentioned it) and booked it via Thomas Cook, who were really good. I used my credit card and I got a text today from the bank saying that they were wondering if I was OK and could they help? It was obviously unnecessary but it was really nice and quite cheered me up.

Maybe they were worried about your state of mind booking a visit to Belfast?

The shop was a bit taken back when I booked it: I don't think anybody ever had before. However they handled it smoothly, and to be honest I will miss them. I'm a determined late-adopter but I feel myself being dragged closer and closer to Shopping Online and Apps and Paying By Phone, and other newfangled things. Goodness knows what I'm going to do next year...

GIN1138 said:

Mike is going to be very upset when the Lib-Dems only gain five seats at the general.

There are a very wide range of possible outcomes for the LibDems at the next election. They could easily lose Westmoreland & Lonsdale and North Norfolk, especially given they won't have popular incumbents. It's also worth noting that Carshalton is in Leave London.

That being said... the LD seat tally is almost entirely a function of the LD-Con spread (with a probable Remain/Leave overlay). In 2005, that spread was 10%, and they got close to 60 seats.

I suspect that the spread this time around will be about 13-15%, which suggests they will end up with a 1997-type result, and about 40-odd seats.

With the proviso, of course, that my confidence in the 13-15% lead is very low. There is a non-trivial chance (i.e. 1-5%) that the LDs end up leading the Conservatives, probably because Brexit has gone really badly and/or the Labour Party has imploded. And there's a similarly non-trivial chance that the LDs end up on a sub 10% vote share and end up losing seats.

Floater said:

bigjohnowls said:

Roger said:

kinabalu said:

The right decision. The policy is a good one.

And contrary to much drivel spouted it is VERY easy for people - other than the ultra dense - to understand.

It depends. The policy as I understand is that Corbyn will renegotiate the deal and then put the renegotiated deal to the electorate without any recommendation. If the plan is to do this after winning an election then I can see the merit. But if it isn't it makes no sense at all and it can't be because if he hasn't won an election it wont be him negotiating a deal.

If it's a manifesto commitment I don't see who it would appeal to. Not everyone votes on Brexit alone but if they do on either side its got to be the worst of all worlds.

For Peoples Voters its a Peoples Vote with Remain on the Ballot

For Brexiteers its a chance to vote again for a better Deal than Mays which is what I will most likely do.

Where does this better deal come from, The EU know if the deal is crap we might stay.

Hardly incentivised are they.

They also knew May's deal was crap and that she would stay rather than go without any deal. And it's why they are so reluctant to change it for a government that's been denied the ability to leave without accepting what they offer.

They will always offer any government crap, until a government has the will and ability to make a realistic threat of going anyway and leaving them in a mess unless they offer something better.

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1176228387951730690

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1176185057050075137

Only an absolute shellacking has any chance of ridding the party of the Trot virus.

That's unfair. Trotsky was highly intelligent, energetic and courageous, in addition to being a ruthless mass murderer opposed to democracy.

This lot, on the other hand...

Cyclefree said:

They are, as I've said before, now a combination of the SWP and Respect.

What circle of hell is this ...

OllyT said:

TheJezziah said:

Thanks to the votes today Labour stand a chance at the next election also but at a lesser level delighted to see Watsons boys were defeated today.

Where does this leave the line about evil Corbyn going against the members and being anti democratic?

Such a shame....

I don't think you are going to get many people believing that today's stitch up was a true representation of the membership's views on Brexit.

Remain wins - oh wait Jenny she says no.....

And Jezziah thinks this is democracy.....

In Venezuela maybe.

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Floater said:

bigjohnowls said:

Roger said:

kinabalu said:

The right decision. The policy is a good one.

And contrary to much drivel spouted it is VERY easy for people - other than the ultra dense - to understand.

It depends. The policy as I understand is that Corbyn will renegotiate the deal and then put the renegotiated deal to the electorate without any recommendation. If the plan is to do this after winning an election then I can see the merit. But if it isn't it makes no sense at all and it can't be because if he hasn't won an election it wont be him negotiating a deal.

If it's a manifesto commitment I don't see who it would appeal to. Not everyone votes on Brexit alone but if they do on either side its got to be the worst of all worlds.

For Peoples Voters its a Peoples Vote with Remain on the Ballot

For Brexiteers its a chance to vote again for a better Deal than Mays which is what I will most likely do.

Where does this better deal come from, The EU know if the deal is crap we might stay.

Hardly incentivised are they.

[Snip]

They will always offer any government crap, until a government has the will and ability to make a realistic threat of going anyway and leaving them in a mess unless they offer something better.

If we threaten to leave with no deal, and they still do not alter the deal, will you acknowledge that your strategy had failed?

Maybe we'll start electing MPs by a show of hands?

What could possibly go wrong?

Labour's new 'AboLIsH ThE PrivATe sCHoOls' policy isn't quite as divisive as it first appears. Not when you take into account that they are also abolishing one day a week of state tuition too.

timple said:

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

Can now see a GE result something like Tories 30 to 35%, LDs 23%, Labour 22% after this vote

Using the latest YOuGOv figures for tactical voting by Lab and LDs, my tactical voting model, on your figures, gives:

Tories/Lab/LD

30/22/23 .... 293/225/62
35/22/23 .... 321/205/55

Tories would be on 346 seats in the latter scenario on UNS, the highest number of Tory MPs won by a Tory leader since Thatcher in 1987 and after tonight's vote I suspect you can count the LD tactical votes for Corbyn Labour on one hand

Most LDs are anti-Brexit and therefore anti-Tory and many will vote tactically for Lab, The YouGov poll indicates 35% will (and 65% won't). That's what I've used.

The Labour party position on Brexit hasn't changed, It is still equivocal but it does include a second referendum. I don't think it will change LibDem tactical voting behaviour much, but I think it will cause some more Labour supporters to defect to the LibDems.

Labour is doing its level best to deter LDs voting for them tactically. 32 hr working weeks and confiscation of private property etc. They obviously only want 1st choice voters......

It looks like that doesn't it. I wonder when the tipping point comes?

Tabman said:

timple said:

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

Can now see a GE result something like Tories 30 to 35%, LDs 23%, Labour 22% after this vote

Using the latest YOuGOv figures for tactical voting by Lab and LDs, my tactical voting model, on your figures, gives:

Tories/Lab/LD

30/22/23 .... 293/225/62
35/22/23 .... 321/205/55

Tories would be on 346 seats in the latter scenario on UNS, the highest number of Tory MPs won by a Tory leader since Thatcher in 1987 and after tonight's vote I suspect you can count the LD tactical votes for Corbyn Labour on one hand

Most LDs are anti-Brexit and therefore anti-Tory and many will vote tactically for Lab, The YouGov poll indicates 35% will (and 65% won't). That's what I've used.

The Labour party position on Brexit hasn't changed, It is still equivocal but it does include a second referendum. I don't think it will change LibDem tactical voting behaviour much, but I think it will cause some more Labour supporters to defect to the LibDems.

Labour is doing its level best to deter LDs voting for them tactically. 32 hr working weeks and confiscation of private property etc. They obviously only want 1st choice voters......

It looks like that doesn't it. I wonder when the tipping point comes?

Writer in Telegraph says the middle classes are bonkers enough now to buy into all this.

I only paraphrase slightly.

OblitusSumMe said:

Maybe we'll start electing MPs by a show of hands?

What could possibly go wrong?

Floater said:

OllyT said:

TheJezziah said:

Thanks to the votes today Labour stand a chance at the next election also but at a lesser level delighted to see Watsons boys were defeated today.

Where does this leave the line about evil Corbyn going against the members and being anti democratic?

Such a shame....

I don't think you are going to get many people believing that today's stitch up was a true representation of the membership's views on Brexit.

Remain wins - oh wait Jenny she says no.....

And Jezziah thinks this is democracy.....

In Venezuela maybe.

The Lady misspoke. It's the kind of thing anybody might do in the heat of the moment and all Jenny Formby did was correct her There was no fiddle about that.

Nevertheless the chair cut a very poor impression generally. You'd have been pretty unimpressed by that sort of performance at the local PTA meeting.

Drutt said:

Labour's new 'AboLIsH ThE PrivATe sCHoOls' policy isn't quite as divisive as it first appears. Not when you take into account that they are also abolishing one day a week of state tuition too.

No. The 5th Day of the workers week shall be spent in celebration of the Dear Leader's gifts and benevolence with songs and all sorts of salutatory activities.

Our cherished Komsomolets shall lead the way.

rottenborough said:

Tabman said:

timple said:

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

Can now see a GE result something like Tories 30 to 35%, LDs 23%, Labour 22% after this vote

Using the latest YOuGOv figures for tactical voting by Lab and LDs, my tactical voting model, on your figures, gives:

Tories/Lab/LD

30/22/23 .... 293/225/62
35/22/23 .... 321/205/55

Tories would be on 346 seats in the latter scenario on UNS, the highest number of Tory MPs won by a Tory leader since Thatcher in 1987 and after tonight's vote I suspect you can count the LD tactical votes for Corbyn Labour on one hand

Most LDs are anti-Brexit and therefore anti-Tory and many will vote tactically for Lab, The YouGov poll indicates 35% will (and 65% won't). That's what I've used.

The Labour party position on Brexit hasn't changed, It is still equivocal but it does include a second referendum. I don't think it will change LibDem tactical voting behaviour much, but I think it will cause some more Labour supporters to defect to the LibDems.

Labour is doing its level best to deter LDs voting for them tactically. 32 hr working weeks and confiscation of private property etc. They obviously only want 1st choice voters......

It looks like that doesn't it. I wonder when the tipping point comes?

Writer in Telegraph says the middle classes are bonkers enough now to buy into all this.

I only paraphrase slightly.

How many middle class readers does the Telegraph have these days? I thought it was only read in Leaverstan.

Peter_the_Punter said:

Floater said:

OllyT said:

TheJezziah said:

Thanks to the votes today Labour stand a chance at the next election also but at a lesser level delighted to see Watsons boys were defeated today.

Where does this leave the line about evil Corbyn going against the members and being anti democratic?

Such a shame....

I don't think you are going to get many people believing that today's stitch up was a true representation of the membership's views on Brexit.

Remain wins - oh wait Jenny she says no.....

And Jezziah thinks this is democracy.....

In Venezuela maybe.

The Lady misspoke. It's the kind of thing anybody might do in the heat of the moment and all Jenny Formby did was correct her There was no fiddle about that.

Nevertheless the chair cut a very poor impression generally. You'd have been pretty unimpressed by that sort of performance at the local PTA meeting.

Erm. Not what the reporters who witnessed it are saying.

viewcode said:

Tabman said:

timple said:

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

Can now see a GE result something like Tories 30 to 35%, LDs 23%, Labour 22% after this vote

Using the latest YOuGOv figures for tactical voting by Lab and LDs, my tactical voting model, on your figures, gives:

Tories/Lab/LD

30/22/23 .... 293/225/62
35/22/23 .... 321/205/55

Tories would be on 346 seats in the latter scenario on UNS, the highest number of Tory MPs won by a Tory leader since Thatcher in 1987 and after tonight's vote I suspect you can count the LD tactical votes for Corbyn Labour on one hand

Most LDs are anti-Brexit and therefore anti-Tory and many will vote tactically for Lab, The YouGov poll indicates 35% will (and 65% won't). That's what I've used.

The Labour party position on Brexit hasn't changed, It is still equivocal but it does include a second referendum. I don't think it will change LibDem tactical voting behaviour much, but I think it will cause some more Labour supporters to defect to the LibDems.

Labour is doing its level best to deter LDs voting for them tactically. 32 hr working weeks and confiscation of private property etc. They obviously only want 1st choice voters......

It looks like that doesn't it. I wonder when the tipping point comes?

I am the only person I know who genuinely liked Neil Kinnock. I have defended the Premierships of Blair and Brown. I have pointed out that Denis Healey and James Callaghan were the highly patriotic defence-orientated left-wingers that the Right refuses to believe exists....

...And I have no idea how to fix Labour, I really don't. Where in the name of Clement Attlee do they go from here?

The answer, I suspect, is to the LDs, leaving the Labour Party to a small band of cultists.