Can now see a GE result something like Tories 30 to 35%, LDs 23%, Labour 22% after this vote
Using the latest YOuGOv figures for tactical voting by Lab and LDs, my tactical voting model, on your figures, gives:
Tories/Lab/LD
30/22/23 .... 293/225/62 35/22/23 .... 321/205/55
Tories would be on 346 seats in the latter scenario on UNS, the highest number of Tory MPs won by a Tory leader since Thatcher in 1987 and after tonight's vote I suspect you can count the LD tactical votes for Corbyn Labour on one hand
Most LDs are anti-Brexit and therefore anti-Tory and many will vote tactically for Lab, The YouGov poll indicates 35% will (and 65% won't). That's what I've used.
The Labour party position on Brexit hasn't changed, It is still equivocal but it does include a second referendum. I don't think it will change LibDem tactical voting behaviour much, but I think it will cause some more Labour supporters to defect to the LibDems.
Labour is doing its level best to deter LDs voting for them tactically. 32 hr working weeks and confiscation of private property etc. They obviously only want 1st choice voters......
It looks like that doesn't it. I wonder when the tipping point comes?
I am the only person I know who genuinely liked Neil Kinnock. I have defended the Premierships of Blair and Brown. I have pointed out that Denis Healey and James Callaghan were the highly patriotic defence-orientated left-wingers that the Right refuses to believe exists....
...And I have no idea how to fix Labour, I really don't. Where in the name of Clement Attlee do they go from here?
The answer, I suspect, is to the LDs, leaving the Labour Party to a small band of cultists.
Quietly devastating take down of Labour's utter shambles. I wouldn't be surprised if even Neil Kinnock is contemplating tearing up his membership card after this afternoon.
"The events that carried the Labour Party to this abysmal point were predictably abysmal."
"It was the most denuded example of what was, in essence, a theological debate on Corbal infallibility. This, ostensibly, was party democracy in action, but it never rose beyond the claim that, “If Jeremy says it, it must be right.”
Democracy indeed, but of a decidedly North Korean kind."
The festering corpse of Scottish Labour does not seem to be a sufficient warning to the the rest of the party. Labour will be minced by the Lib Dems in London and indeed pretty much any seat south of the Wash-Severn line. There comes a point where they can never come back- and this is getting really close to the edge.
Of course the Fall of Czar Jeremy may bring total meltdown...
Next week's polls could show a tipping point that Labour can not come back from.
Meanwhile Johnson and the "friend who got benefits" and the little matter of playing very fast and loose with the constitution could equally see the Tories in a spot of bother. Kaiser Boris may need to spend some time in Holland...
Is this where the simultaneous collapse of two empires allows the Polish Lib Dems to restore the glory of former centuries?
In the current insane world of the UK, you can't quite rule it out
Quietly devastating take down of Labour's utter shambles. I wouldn't be surprised if even Neil Kinnock is contemplating tearing up his membership card after this afternoon.
"The events that carried the Labour Party to this abysmal point were predictably abysmal."
"It was the most denuded example of what was, in essence, a theological debate on Corbal infallibility. This, ostensibly, was party democracy in action, but it never rose beyond the claim that, “If Jeremy says it, it must be right.”
Democracy indeed, but of a decidedly North Korean kind."
The festering corpse of Scottish Labour does not seem to be a sufficient warning to the the rest of the party. Labour will be minced by the Lib Dems in London and indeed pretty much any seat south of the Wash-Severn line. There comes a point where they can never come back- and this is getting really close to the edge.
Of course the Fall of Czar Jeremy may bring total meltdown...
Next week's polls could show a tipping point that Labour can not come back from.
Meanwhile Johnson and the "friend who got benefits" and the little matter of playing very fast and loose with the constitution could equally see the Tories in a spot of bother. Kaiser Boris may need to spend some time in Holland...
Is this where the simultaneous collapse of two empires allows the Polish Lib Dems to restore the glory of former centuries?
In the current insane world of the UK, you can't quite rule it out
Can now see a GE result something like Tories 30 to 35%, LDs 23%, Labour 22% after this vote
Using the latest YOuGOv figures for tactical voting by Lab and LDs, my tactical voting model, on your figures, gives:
Tories/Lab/LD
30/22/23 .... 293/225/62 35/22/23 .... 321/205/55
Tories would be on 346 seats in the latter scenario on UNS, the highest number of Tory MPs won by a Tory leader since Thatcher in 1987 and after tonight's vote I suspect you can count the LD tactical votes for Corbyn Labour on one hand
Most LDs are anti-Brexit and therefore anti-Tory and many will vote tactically for Lab, The YouGov poll indicates 35% will (and 65% won't). That's what I've used.
The Labour party position on Brexit hasn't changed, It is still equivocal but it does include a second referendum. I don't think it will change LibDem tactical voting behaviour much, but I think it will cause some more Labour supporters to defect to the LibDems.
Labour is doing its level best to deter LDs voting for them tactically. 32 hr working weeks and confiscation of private property etc. They obviously only want 1st choice voters......
It looks like that doesn't it. I wonder when the tipping point comes?
I am the only person I know who genuinely liked Neil Kinnock. I have defended the Premierships of Blair and Brown. I have pointed out that Denis Healey and James Callaghan were the highly patriotic defence-orientated left-wingers that the Right refuses to believe exists....
...And I have no idea how to fix Labour, I really don't. Where in the name of Clement Attlee do they go from here?
The answer, I suspect, is to the LDs, leaving the Labour Party to a small band of cultists.
That being the case Johnson has a free pass for an awfully long time.
Less than ten years since they left government the Labour Party is now no more relevant than a student debating society.
Next week's polls could show a tipping point that Labour can not come back from.
Meanwhile Johnson and the "friend who got benefits" and the little matter of playing very fast and loose with the constitution could equally see the Tories in a spot of bother. Kaiser Boris may need to spend some time in Holland...
And yet.. Johnson presently holds up in the opinion polls - which is deeply worrying.
What if there's a large enough minority among the British public to give Corbyn a boost after this conference?
Can now see a GE result something like Tories 30 to 35%, LDs 23%, Labour 22% after this vote
Using the latest YOuGOv figures for tactical voting by Lab and LDs, my tactical voting model, on your figures, gives:
Tories/Lab/LD
30/22/23 .... 293/225/62 35/22/23 .... 321/205/55
Tories would be on 346 seats in the latter scenario on UNS, the highest number of Tory MPs won by a Tory leader since Thatcher in 1987 and after tonight's vote I suspect you can count the LD tactical votes for Corbyn Labour on one hand
Most LDs are anti-Brexit and therefore anti-Tory and many will vote tactically for Lab, The YouGov poll indicates 35% will (and 65% won't). That's what I've used.
The Labour party position on Brexit hasn't changed, It is still equivocal but it does include a second referendum. I don't think it will change LibDem tactical voting behaviour much, but I think it will cause some more Labour supporters to defect to the LibDems.
Labour is doing its level best to deter LDs voting for them tactically. 32 hr working weeks and confiscation of private property etc. They obviously only want 1st choice voters......
It looks like that doesn't it. I wonder when the tipping point comes?
Can now see a GE result something like Tories 30 to 35%, LDs 23%, Labour 22% after this vote
Using the latest YOuGOv figures for tactical voting by Lab and LDs, my tactical voting model, on your figures, gives:
Tories/Lab/LD
30/22/23 .... 293/225/62 35/22/23 .... 321/205/55
Tories would be on 346 seats in the latter scenario on UNS, the highest number of Tory MPs won by a Tory leader since Thatcher in 1987 and after tonight's vote I suspect you can count the LD tactical votes for Corbyn Labour on one hand
Most LDs are anti-Brexit and therefore anti-Tory and many will vote tactically for Lab, The YouGov poll indicates 35% will (and 65% won't). That's what I've used.
The Labour party position on Brexit hasn't changed, It is still equivocal but it does include a second referendum. I don't think it will change LibDem tactical voting behaviour much, but I think it will cause some more Labour supporters to defect to the LibDems.
Labour is doing its level best to deter LDs voting for them tactically. 32 hr working weeks and confiscation of private property etc. They obviously only want 1st choice voters......
It looks like that doesn't it. I wonder when the tipping point comes?
A sub-20% poll.....?
We could already be past the tipping point. Today could mark a watershed moment, it looked ridiculous.
Is it possible the SC excoriate Boris without declaring prorogation illegal? Something along the lines of within the rules but the rules are not fit for purpose and must be changed? Or is that not possible?
Can now see a GE result something like Tories 30 to 35%, LDs 23%, Labour 22% after this vote
Using the latest YOuGOv figures for tactical voting by Lab and LDs, my tactical voting model, on your figures, gives:
Tories/Lab/LD
30/22/23 .... 293/225/62 35/22/23 .... 321/205/55
Tories would be on 346 seats in the latter scenario on UNS, the highest number of Tory MPs won by a Tory leader since Thatcher in 1987 and after tonight's vote I suspect you can count the LD tactical votes for Corbyn Labour on one hand
Most LDs are anti-Brexit and therefore anti-Tory and many will vote tactically for Lab, The YouGov poll indicates 35% will (and 65% won't). That's what I've used.
The Labour party position on Brexit hasn't changed, It is still equivocal but it does include a second referendum. I don't think it will change LibDem tactical voting behaviour much, but I think it will cause some more Labour supporters to defect to the LibDems.
Labour is doing its level best to deter LDs voting for them tactically. 32 hr working weeks and confiscation of private property etc. They obviously only want 1st choice voters......
It looks like that doesn't it. I wonder when the tipping point comes?
I am the only person I know who genuinely liked Neil Kinnock. I have defended the Premierships of Blair and Brown. I have pointed out that Denis Healey and James Callaghan were the highly patriotic defence-orientated left-wingers that the Right refuses to believe exists....
...And I have no idea how to fix Labour, I really don't. Where in the name of Clement Attlee do they go from here?
I don't think you can. It's only the Labour brand and assets that keeps the Social Democrats there, surely? But that brand is going the way of Thomas Cook ....
Quietly devastating take down of Labour's utter shambles. I wouldn't be surprised if even Neil Kinnock is contemplating tearing up his membership card after this afternoon.
"The events that carried the Labour Party to this abysmal point were predictably abysmal."
"It was the most denuded example of what was, in essence, a theological debate on Corbal infallibility. This, ostensibly, was party democracy in action, but it never rose beyond the claim that, “If Jeremy says it, it must be right.”
Democracy indeed, but of a decidedly North Korean kind."
The festering corpse of Scottish Labour does not seem to be a sufficient warning to the the rest of the party. Labour will be minced by the Lib Dems in London and indeed pretty much any seat south of the Wash-Severn line. There comes a point where they can never come back- and this is getting really close to the edge.
Of course the Fall of Czar Jeremy may bring total meltdown...
Next week's polls could show a tipping point that Labour can not come back from.
Meanwhile Johnson and the "friend who got benefits" and the little matter of playing very fast and loose with the constitution could equally see the Tories in a spot of bother. Kaiser Boris may need to spend some time in Holland...
Is this where the simultaneous collapse of two empires allows the Polish Lib Dems to restore the glory of former centuries?
In the current insane world of the UK, you can't quite rule it out
Brilliant analogy old friend! You are the Misciewicz de nos jours
Thanks to the votes today Labour stand a chance at the next election also but at a lesser level delighted to see Watsons boys were defeated today.
Where does this leave the line about evil Corbyn going against the members and being anti democratic?
Such a shame....
I don't think you are going to get many people believing that today's stitch up was a true representation of the membership's views on Brexit.
Remain wins - oh wait Jenny she says no.....
And Jezziah thinks this is democracy.....
In Venezuela maybe.
I'm curious. What the hell has it to do with the Gen Sec? The conference chair was running the vote and should have been free to get on with it.
Surely this can be challenged?
The BBC political correspondent included in their report on the events describes the vote as having been 'decisive' and only that 'some remainers maintain that the vote would at least have been closer (my emphasis) if it wasn't conducted in public'
Suggesting that the General Secretary had called it right? Granted it makes for a bizarre video in the way the Chair phrases it by saying she thought it was the other way, but the Chair still made the call, not the General Secretary.
Is it possible the SC excoriate Boris without declaring prorogation illegal? Something along the lines of within the rules but the rules are not fit for purpose and must be changed? Or is that not possible?
"We declared the whole thing null and void 8 minutes after we started because nobody was on the same page numbers"
Is it possible the SC excoriate Boris without declaring prorogation illegal? Something along the lines of within the rules but the rules are not fit for purpose and must be changed? Or is that not possible?
That seems along the lines of the theorized judgement that they will say that prorogation is justiciable, but that this one was just about lawful but it was mighty close.
I'm a bit torn about it all to be honest. I am interested to know what the view is on the fundamental question, but its hard to escape that neither side has that question as their main concern, since parliament always had a way of stopping Johnson, and Johnson himself is getting sources out to attack the judges in advance for the people vs the elite election he hopes to have some day, so whichever side loses is not particularly affected in their next moves.
Can now see a GE result something like Tories 30 to 35%, LDs 23%, Labour 22% after this vote
Using the latest YOuGOv figures for tactical voting by Lab and LDs, my tactical voting model, on your figures, gives:
Tories/Lab/LD
30/22/23 .... 293/225/62 35/22/23 .... 321/205/55
Tories would be on 346 seats in the latter scenario on UNS, the highest number of Tory MPs won by a Tory leader since Thatcher in 1987 and after tonight's vote I suspect you can count the LD tactical votes for Corbyn Labour on one hand
Most LDs are anti-Brexit and therefore anti-Tory and many will vote tactically for Lab, The YouGov poll indicates 35% will (and 65% won't). That's what I've used.
The Labour party position on Brexit hasn't changed, It is still equivocal but it does include a second referendum. I don't think it will change LibDem tactical voting behaviour much, but I think it will cause some more Labour supporters to defect to the LibDems.
Labour is doing its level best to deter LDs voting for them tactically. 32 hr working weeks and confiscation of private property etc. They obviously only want 1st choice voters......
It looks like that doesn't it. I wonder when the tipping point comes?
A sub-20% poll.....?
Labour polled down at 18% after the European election.
Can now see a GE result something like Tories 30 to 35%, LDs 23%, Labour 22% after this vote
Using the latest YOuGOv figures for tactical voting by Lab and LDs, my tactical voting model, on your figures, gives:
Tories/Lab/LD
30/22/23 .... 293/225/62 35/22/23 .... 321/205/55
Tories would be on 346 seats in the latter scenario on UNS, the highest number of Tory MPs won by a Tory leader since Thatcher in 1987 and after tonight's vote I suspect you can count the LD tactical votes for Corbyn Labour on one hand
Most LDs are anti-Brexit and therefore anti-Tory and many will vote tactically for Lab, The YouGov poll indicates 35% will (and 65% won't). That's what I've used.
The Labour party position on Brexit hasn't changed, It is still equivocal but it does include a second referendum. I don't think it will change LibDem tactical voting behaviour much, but I think it will cause some more Labour supporters to defect to the LibDems.
Labour is doing its level best to deter LDs voting for them tactically. 32 hr working weeks and confiscation of private property etc. They obviously only want 1st choice voters......
It looks like that doesn't it. I wonder when the tipping point comes?
Thanks to the votes today Labour stand a chance at the next election also but at a lesser level delighted to see Watsons boys were defeated today.
Where does this leave the line about evil Corbyn going against the members and being anti democratic?
Such a shame....
I don't think you are going to get many people believing that today's stitch up was a true representation of the membership's views on Brexit.
Remain wins - oh wait Jenny she says no.....
And Jezziah thinks this is democracy.....
In Venezuela maybe.
The Lady misspoke. It's the kind of thing anybody might do in the heat of the moment and all Jenny Formby did was correct her There was no fiddle about that.
Nevertheless the chair cut a very poor impression generally. You'd have been pretty unimpressed by that sort of performance at the local PTA meeting.
Erm. Not what the reporters who witnessed it are saying.
From the Independent - that tory rag.......
“I thought it was one way,” she said. “Jennie said something else. That was lost.”
There were gasps and cheers in equal measure. Ms Nichols, the actual chair of the event, thought that the motion had carried, that Remain had won, but was saying, openly, that she had been overruled.
There was the option, at this point, to have an actual “card vote” – to count up the votes properly, if the show of hands is inconclusive. But that was rejected too. Half the hall, and I do mean half, exactly half, began chanting “Oh Jeremy Corbyn.”
Can now see a GE result something like Tories 30 to 35%, LDs 23%, Labour 22% after this vote
Using the latest YOuGOv figures for tactical voting by Lab and LDs, my tactical voting model, on your figures, gives:
Tories/Lab/LD
30/22/23 .... 293/225/62 35/22/23 .... 321/205/55
Tories would be on 346 seats in the latter scenario on UNS, the highest number of Tory MPs won by a Tory leader since Thatcher in 1987 and after tonight's vote I suspect you can count the LD tactical votes for Corbyn Labour on one hand
Most LDs are anti-Brexit and therefore anti-Tory and many will vote tactically for Lab, The YouGov poll indicates 35% will (and 65% won't). That's what I've used.
The Labour party position on Brexit hasn't changed, It is still equivocal but it does include a second referendum. I don't think it will change LibDem tactical voting behaviour much, but I think it will cause some more Labour supporters to defect to the LibDems.
Labour is doing its level best to deter LDs voting for them tactically. 32 hr working weeks and confiscation of private property etc. They obviously only want 1st choice voters......
It looks like that doesn't it. I wonder when the tipping point comes?
A sub-20% poll.....?
Labour polled down at 18% after the European election.
But that was a free kick at the established order. The Tories were half that.
The Tories have bounced back. Labour are now plumbing their depths again.
The greatest Labour have been behind the Lib Dems this year is 5 points and the longest is for two polls in succession.
So those are the bars that would need to be exceeded for any poll result to represent another step towards the Lib Dems eclipsing Labour.
Seems reasonable. Labour have a strong brand, very strong emotional ties with many people, and the voting system really encourages LDs to hold their nose and vote Labour rather than Labour hold their nose and vote LD. The LDs need momentum and Labour chaos to really have a chance of making people believe they not only are a better option, but that they are a better option with a chance of winning in places they have never won before.
I just cannot see it. Seeing how much people resist stepping away from Labour shows how hard many will find it.
The only thing that can save Labour now is the Supreme Court finding against Bozo to divert attention from the conference .
Does any one know when the EHRC investigation into AS publishes?
They sent out for a shit load more ink last month.......
Again from the tory supporting Independent today
"A woman called Vanessa Stilwell, there ostensibly to offer a view on Labour’s Brexit policy, saw fit to declare: “Jeremy Corbyn is the most anti-racist leader this party has ever had!”
They went wild. Labour’s most anti-racist leader? Down in the lower reaches of the Freeview channels, there are precious few list shows that have not yet been made. The Labour Party’s most anti-racist leaders would be compelling viewing.
On what basis Jeremy Corbyn edges out, say, Michael Foot, Keir Hardie, Neil Kinnock, Clement Attlee and the rest is not immediately clear, not least as none of them have been accused of active complicity in racism,"
Can now see a GE result something like Tories 30 to 35%, LDs 23%, Labour 22% after this vote
Using the latest YOuGOv figures for tactical voting by Lab and LDs, my tactical voting model, on your figures, gives:
Tories/Lab/LD
30/22/23 .... 293/225/62 35/22/23 .... 321/205/55
Tories would be on 346 seats in the latter scenario on UNS, the highest number of Tory MPs won by a Tory leader since Thatcher in 1987 and after tonight's vote I suspect you can count the LD tactical votes for Corbyn Labour on one hand
Most LDs are anti-Brexit and therefore anti-Tory and many will vote tactically for Lab, The YouGov poll indicates 35% will (and 65% won't). That's what I've used.
The Labour party position on Brexit hasn't changed, It is still equivocal but it does include a second referendum. I don't think it will change LibDem tactical voting behaviour much, but I think it will cause some more Labour supporters to defect to the LibDems.
Labour is doing its level best to deter LDs voting for them tactically. 32 hr working weeks and confiscation of private property etc. They obviously only want 1st choice voters......
It looks like that doesn't it. I wonder when the tipping point comes?
A sub-20% poll.....?
Labour polled down at 18% after the European election.
But that was a free kick at the established order. The Tories were half that.
The Tories have bounced back. Labour are now plumbing their depths again.
The 18% was in an opinion poll. The lowest the Tories went in the opinion polls was 17% (twice).
The greatest Labour have been behind the Lib Dems this year is 5 points and the longest is for two polls in succession.
So those are the bars that would need to be exceeded for any poll result to represent another step towards the Lib Dems eclipsing Labour.
Seems reasonable. Labour have a strong brand, very strong emotional ties with many people, and the voting system really encourages LDs to hold their nose and vote Labour rather than Labour hold their nose and vote LD. The LDs need momentum and Labour chaos to really have a chance of making people believe they not only are a better option, but that they are a better option with a chance of winning in places they have never won before.
I just cannot see it. Seeing how much people resist stepping away from Labour shows how hard many will find it.
I give you two words: Scottish Labour.
I give you two more words: Black Swan
I give you a further two words: Inductivist Turkey
Can now see a GE result something like Tories 30 to 35%, LDs 23%, Labour 22% after this vote
Using the latest YOuGOv figures for tactical voting by Lab and LDs, my tactical voting model, on your figures, gives:
Tories/Lab/LD
30/22/23 .... 293/225/62 35/22/23 .... 321/205/55
Tories would be on 346 seats in the latter scenario on UNS, the highest number of Tory MPs won by a Tory leader since Thatcher in 1987 and after tonight's vote I suspect you can count the LD tactical votes for Corbyn Labour on one hand
Most LDs are anti-Brexit and therefore anti-Tory and many will vote tactically for Lab, The YouGov poll indicates 35% will (and 65% won't). That's what I've used.
The Labour party position on Brexit hasn't changed, It is still equivocal but it does include a second referendum. I don't think it will change LibDem tactical voting behaviour much, but I think it will cause some more Labour supporters to defect to the LibDems.
Labour is doing its level best to deter LDs voting for them tactically. 32 hr working weeks and confiscation of private property etc. They obviously only want 1st choice voters......
It looks like that doesn't it. I wonder when the tipping point comes?
I am the only person I know who genuinely liked Neil Kinnock. I have defended the Premierships of Blair and Brown. I have pointed out that Denis Healey and James Callaghan were the highly patriotic defence-orientated left-wingers that the Right refuses to believe exists....
...And I have no idea how to fix Labour, I really don't. Where in the name of Clement Attlee do they go from here?
The answer, I suspect, is to the LDs, leaving the Labour Party to a small band of cultists.
That being the case Johnson has a free pass for an awfully long time.
Less than ten years since they left government the Labour Party is now no more relevant than a student debating society.
Labour will always get 200 seats in Tory free zones. What we need is for Jo to get 100 and the job is done. I just hope the Libs get their pitch right. They'll never have a better chance
Can now see a GE result something like Tories 30 to 35%, LDs 23%, Labour 22% after this vote
Using the latest YOuGOv figures for tactical voting by Lab and LDs, my tactical voting model, on your figures, gives:
Tories/Lab/LD
30/22/23 .... 293/225/62 35/22/23 .... 321/205/55
Tories would be on 346 seats in the latter scenario on UNS, the highest number of Tory MPs won by a Tory leader since Thatcher in 1987 and after tonight's vote I suspect you can count the LD tactical votes for Corbyn Labour on one hand
Most LDs are anti-Brexit and therefore anti-Tory and many will vote tactically for Lab, The YouGov poll indicates 35% will (and 65% won't). That's what I've used.
The Labour party position on Brexit hasn't changed, It is still equivocal but it does include a second referendum. I don't think it will change LibDem tactical voting behaviour much, but I think it will cause some more Labour supporters to defect to the LibDems.
Labour is doing its level best to deter LDs voting for them tactically. 32 hr working weeks and confiscation of private property etc. They obviously only want 1st choice voters......
It looks like that doesn't it. I wonder when the tipping point comes?
A sub-20% poll.....?
Labour polled down at 18% after the European election.
But that was a free kick at the established order. The Tories were half that.
The Tories have bounced back. Labour are now plumbing their depths again.
I don't think you should be quite so smug just yet. Johnson has the capacity to plunge the Conservatives into sub- Corbyn territory,
The greatest Labour have been behind the Lib Dems this year is 5 points and the longest is for two polls in succession.
So those are the bars that would need to be exceeded for any poll result to represent another step towards the Lib Dems eclipsing Labour.
Seems reasonable. Labour have a strong brand, very strong emotional ties with many people, and the voting system really encourages LDs to hold their nose and vote Labour rather than Labour hold their nose and vote LD. The LDs need momentum and Labour chaos to really have a chance of making people believe they not only are a better option, but that they are a better option with a chance of winning in places they have never won before.
I just cannot see it. Seeing how much people resist stepping away from Labour shows how hard many will find it.
I give you two words: Scottish Labour.
I give you two more words: Black Swan
I give you a further two words: Inductivist Turkey
I grant you that, but it's my instinct in these matters that I struggle to overcome, I suffer real failures of imagination with it. It's been predicted so many times in recent years, and while the boy who cried wolf was eventually right it took a long time.
The only thing that can save Labour now is the Supreme Court finding against Bozo to divert attention from the conference .
Does any one know when the EHRC investigation into AS publishes?
They started it, what, 4 months ago, give or take? Far less complex investigations have taken far longer than that, and how long did it take between getting a complaint and deciding to investigate? I hope they have quality investigators doing it.
Is it possible the SC excoriate Boris without declaring prorogation illegal? Something along the lines of within the rules but the rules are not fit for purpose and must be changed? Or is that not possible?
Surely the one thing judges never say is that the law should be different!
The greatest Labour have been behind the Lib Dems this year is 5 points and the longest is for two polls in succession.
So those are the bars that would need to be exceeded for any poll result to represent another step towards the Lib Dems eclipsing Labour.
Seems reasonable. Labour have a strong brand, very strong emotional ties with many people, and the voting system really encourages LDs to hold their nose and vote Labour rather than Labour hold their nose and vote LD. The LDs need momentum and Labour chaos to really have a chance of making people believe they not only are a better option, but that they are a better option with a chance of winning in places they have never won before.
I just cannot see it. Seeing how much people resist stepping away from Labour shows how hard many will find it.
I give you two words: Scottish Labour.
I give you two more words: Black Swan
I give you a further two words: Inductivist Turkey
I grant you that, but it's my instinct in these matters that I struggle to overcome, I suffer real failures of imagination with it. It's been predicted so many times in recent years, and while the boy who cried wolf was eventually right it took a long time.
I'm kind of with you - never underestimate the utter tribal pig-headedness of the average Labour voter. And yet ... Scotland
Sadiq Khan is part of the answer for Labour to find its way back.
Is he? He has hardly shone as Mayor of London. Has never struck me as a very grown up thinker. Lots of broken promises that may (or may not) come back to hurt him. He is almost certainly going to get re-elected. But I don't see him as a national leader
Is it possible the SC excoriate Boris without declaring prorogation illegal? Something along the lines of within the rules but the rules are not fit for purpose and must be changed? Or is that not possible?
Surely the one thing judges never say is that the law should be different!
"There is a lack of clarity in this area of law which would be a matter for parliament to resolve if it chooses"?
Can now see a GE result something like Tories 30 to 35%, LDs 23%, Labour 22% after this vote
Using the latest YOuGOv figures for tactical voting by Lab and LDs, my tactical voting model, on your figures, gives:
Tories/Lab/LD
30/22/23 .... 293/225/62 35/22/23 .... 321/205/55
Tories would be on 346 seats in the latter scenario on UNS, the highest number of Tory MPs won by a Tory leader since Thatcher in 1987 and after tonight's vote I suspect you can count the LD tactical votes for Corbyn Labour on one hand
Most LDs are anti-Brexit and therefore anti-Tory and many will vote tactically for Lab, The YouGov poll indicates 35% will (and 65% won't). That's what I've used.
The Labour party position on Brexit hasn't changed, It is still equivocal but it does include a second referendum. I don't think it will change LibDem tactical voting behaviour much, but I think it will cause some more Labour supporters to defect to the LibDems.
Labour is doing its level best to deter LDs voting for them tactically. 32 hr working weeks and confiscation of private property etc. They obviously only want 1st choice voters......
It looks like that doesn't it. I wonder when the tipping point comes?
I am the only person I know who genuinely liked Neil Kinnock. I have defended the Premierships of Blair and Brown. I have pointed out that Denis Healey and James Callaghan were the highly patriotic defence-orientated left-wingers that the Right refuses to believe exists....
...And I have no idea how to fix Labour, I really don't. Where in the name of Clement Attlee do they go from here?
The answer, I suspect, is to the LDs, leaving the Labour Party to a small band of cultists.
That being the case Johnson has a free pass for an awfully long time.
Less than ten years since they left government the Labour Party is now no more relevant than a student debating society.
Labour will always get 200 seats in Tory free zones. What we need is for Jo to get 100 and the job is done. I just hope the Libs get their pitch right. They'll never have a better chance
Not so sure Roger. ITV Wales were interviewing lifelong Labour (and Leaver) voters in the Gower constituency last week. They were going straight to Boris to get Brexit done.
Sadiq Khan is part of the answer for Labour to find its way back.
Is he? He has hardly shone as Mayor of London. Has never struck me as a very grown up thinker. Lots of broken promises that may (or may not) come back to hurt him. He is almost certainly going to get re-elected. But I don't see him as a national leader
Can now see a GE result something like Tories 30 to 35%, LDs 23%, Labour 22% after this vote
Using the latest YOuGOv figures for tactical voting by Lab and LDs, my tactical voting model, on your figures, gives:
Tories/Lab/LD
30/22/23 .... 293/225/62 35/22/23 .... 321/205/55
Tories would be on 346 seats in the latter scenario on UNS, the highest number of Tory MPs won by a Tory leader since Thatcher in 1987 and after tonight's vote I suspect you can count the LD tactical votes for Corbyn Labour on one hand
Most LDs are anti-Brexit and therefore anti-Tory and many will vote tactically for Lab, The YouGov poll indicates 35% will (and 65% won't). That's what I've used.
The Labour party position on Brexit hasn't changed, It is still equivocal but it does include a second referendum. I don't think it will change LibDem tactical voting behaviour much, but I think it will cause some more Labour supporters to defect to the LibDems.
Labour is doing its level best to deter LDs voting for them tactically. 32 hr working weeks and confiscation of private property etc. They obviously only want 1st choice voters......
It looks like that doesn't it. I wonder when the tipping point comes?
I am the only person I know who genuinely liked Neil Kinnock. I have defended the Premierships of Blair and Brown. I have pointed out that Denis Healey and James Callaghan were the highly patriotic defence-orientated left-wingers that the Right refuses to believe exists....
...And I have no idea how to fix Labour, I really don't. Where in the name of Clement Attlee do they go from here?
The answer, I suspect, is to the LDs, leaving the Labour Party to a small band of cultists.
That being the case Johnson has a free pass for an awfully long time.
Less than ten years since they left government the Labour Party is now no more relevant than a student debating society.
Labour will always get 200 seats in Tory free zones. What we need is for Jo to get 100 and the job is done. I just hope the Libs get their pitch right. They'll never have a better chance
"On what basis Jeremy Corbyn edges out, say, Michael Foot, Keir Hardie, Neil Kinnock, Clement Attlee and the rest is not immediately clear, not least as none of them have been accused of active complicity in racism,"
Well, whoever wrote that for The Independent is clearly a grade-one know-nothing.
No less than Henry McLeish has provided compelling evidence that Keir Hardie was an intolerant xenophobe who indulged in crude racial stereotyping and castigated foreigners for taking Scottish jobs.
This has been such an unmitigated shitshow of a conference for Labour that I wouldn't be surprised to see them up five points in the first post conference poll... such is the bloody minded determination of the British public (Gawd bless 'em) to confound all reasonable expectations
Sadiq Khan is part of the answer for Labour to find its way back.
Is he? He has hardly shone as Mayor of London. Has never struck me as a very grown up thinker. Lots of broken promises that may (or may not) come back to hurt him. He is almost certainly going to get re-elected. But I don't see him as a national leader
..but is he going to get re-elected? Khan could be collateral damage from the Corbyn plan for world domination.
Can now see a GE result something like Tories 30 to 35%, LDs 23%, Labour 22% after this vote
Using the latest YOuGOv figures for tactical voting by Lab and LDs, my tactical voting model, on your figures, gives:
Tories/Lab/LD
30/22/23 .... 293/225/62 35/22/23 .... 321/205/55
Tories would be on 346 seats in the latter scenario on UNS, the highest number of Tory MPs won by a Tory leader since Thatcher in 1987 and after tonight's vote I suspect you can count the LD tactical votes for Corbyn Labour on one hand
Most LDs are anti-Brexit and therefore anti-Tory and many will vote tactically for Lab, The YouGov poll indicates 35% will (and 65% won't). That's what I've used.
The Labour party position on Brexit hasn't changed, It is still equivocal but it does include a second referendum. I don't think it will change LibDem tactical voting behaviour much, but I think it will cause some more Labour supporters to defect to the LibDems.
Labour is doing its level best to deter LDs voting for them tactically. 32 hr working weeks and confiscation of private property etc. They obviously only want 1st choice voters......
It looks like that doesn't it. I wonder when the tipping point comes?
I am the only person I know who genuinely liked Neil Kinnock. I have defended the Premierships of Blair and Brown. I have pointed out that Denis Healey and James Callaghan were the highly patriotic defence-orientated left-wingers that the Right refuses to believe exists....
...And I have no idea how to fix Labour, I really don't. Where in the name of Clement Attlee do they go from here?
The answer, I suspect, is to the LDs, leaving the Labour Party to a small band of cultists.
That being the case Johnson has a free pass for an awfully long time.
Less than ten years since they left government the Labour Party is now no more relevant than a student debating society.
Labour will always get 200 seats in Tory free zones. What we need is for Jo to get 100 and the job is done. I just hope the Libs get their pitch right. They'll never have a better chance
Not so sure Roger. ITV Wales were interviewing lifelong Labour (and Leaver) voters in the Gower constituency last week. They were going straight to Boris to get Brexit done.
Gwyr is exactly the kind of constituency that will fall to the Tories.
The only thing that can save Labour now is the Supreme Court finding against Bozo to divert attention from the conference .
Does any one know when the EHRC investigation into AS publishes?
They started it, what, 4 months ago, give or take? Far less complex investigations have taken far longer than that, and how long did it take between getting a complaint and deciding to investigate? I hope they have quality investigators doing it.
Oh absolutely. But I do remember the unexploded bomb for the Tories during 2017 GE of the Election expenses scandal. For what, a couple of weeks of the campaign it sat in the background awaiting judgement and had the potential to do an awful amount of damage.
As it happened, nothing happened. But with a GE maybe forthcoming this November would the EHRC delay publication during an Election or could Labour have the potential for a game changer in the middle of a campaign this time around? For better or worse?
Sadiq Khan is part of the answer for Labour to find its way back.
Is he? He has hardly shone as Mayor of London. Has never struck me as a very grown up thinker. Lots of broken promises that may (or may not) come back to hurt him. He is almost certainly going to get re-elected. But I don't see him as a national leader
..but is he going to get re-elected? Khan could be collateral damage from the Corbyn plan for world domination.
He has, from time to time, tried to distance himself from Corbyn (and at other times cosied up)
On Brexit, he has been resolutely for Remain - which might be enough
The only thing that can save Labour now is the Supreme Court finding against Bozo to divert attention from the conference .
Does any one know when the EHRC investigation into AS publishes?
They started it, what, 4 months ago, give or take? Far less complex investigations have taken far longer than that, and how long did it take between getting a complaint and deciding to investigate? I hope they have quality investigators doing it.
Oh absolutely. But I do remember the unexploded bomb for the Tories during 2017 GE of the Election expenses scandal. For what, a couple of weeks of the campaign it sat in the background awaiting judgement and had the potential to do an awful amount of damage.
As it happened, nothing happened. But with a GE maybe forthcoming this November would the EHRC delay publication during an Election or could Labour have the potential for a game changer in the middle of a campaign this time around? For better or worse?
I can't imagine the EHRC taking less than a year to complete this.
Sadiq Khan is part of the answer for Labour to find its way back.
Agreed, especially as a Muslim that shows solidarity with both Jews and gay people. But he needs to be far more vocal about the rot. It is not enough to be in the right. You also need to stand up to those in the wrong.
This has been such an unmitigated shitshow of a conference for Labour that I wouldn't be surprised to see them up five points in the first post conference poll... such is the bloody minded determination of the British public (Gawd bless 'em) to confound all reasonable expectations
Doubt it! I think their best hope is no-change, on the basis that nobody is paying attention amid all the other noise caused by the likes of Tom Asscook and Sue Preme-Court.
Sadiq Khan is part of the answer for Labour to find its way back.
Is he? He has hardly shone as Mayor of London. Has never struck me as a very grown up thinker. Lots of broken promises that may (or may not) come back to hurt him. He is almost certainly going to get re-elected. But I don't see him as a national leader
..but is he going to get re-elected? Khan could be collateral damage from the Corbyn plan for world domination.
Probably. Shaun Bailey isn't much of a candidate. His biggest risk is Siobhan Benita sneaking second and taking it, but I'd not describe it as a high likelihood.
It’s been the source of much twitter conjecture as to what might happen with the Supreme Court .
The judges are really quite good at never giving the game away.
I think whatever side of the debate you’re on it’s important that they at least find the matter justiciable.
This will send a message that any future PM won’t get a free pass.
I don't quite agree with the statement 'whatever side of the debate you’re on it’s important that they at least find the matter justiciable. This will send a message that any future PM won’t get a free pass'.
If the law as it stands really is as the government says, then it is not for the Justices to decide to make sure a future PM will not get a free pass surely? I don't want PMs to get a free pass, and clearly many eminent legal minds think the law does not allow them that, so I hope they find it justiciable (the question of lawfulness I care less about, since I think the action was the wrong thing to do even if it is lawful) and that this sends a message, but I'd hope it is not the motivation of the justices to send that message.
Sadiq Khan is part of the answer for Labour to find its way back.
Agreed, especially as a Muslim that shows solidarity with both Jews and gay people. But he needs to be far more vocal about the rot. It is not enough to be in the right. You also need to stand up to those in the wrong.
Well, the whole damned Party needs to stand up to those in the wrong.
Tories would be on 346 seats in the latter scenario on UNS, the highest number of Tory MPs won by a Tory leader since Thatcher in 1987 and after tonight's vote I suspect you can count the LD tactical votes for Corbyn Labour on one hand
Most LDs are anti-Brexit and therefore anti-Tory and many will vote tactically for Lab, The YouGov poll indicates 35% will (and 65% won't). That's what I've used.
The Labour party position on Brexit hasn't changed, It is still equivocal but it does include a second referendum. I don't think it will change LibDem tactical voting behaviour much, but I think it will cause some more Labour supporters to defect to the LibDems.
Labour is doing its level best to deter LDs voting for them tactically. 32 hr working weeks and confiscation of private property etc. They obviously only want 1st choice voters......
It looks like that doesn't it. I wonder when the tipping point comes?
I am the only person I know who genuinely liked Neil Kinnock. I have defended the Premierships of Blair and Brown. I have pointed out that Denis Healey and James Callaghan were the highly patriotic defence-orientated left-wingers that the Right refuses to believe exists....
...And I have no idea how to fix Labour, I really don't. Where in the name of Clement Attlee do they go from here?
The answer, I suspect, is to the LDs, leaving the Labour Party to a small band of cultists.
That being the case Johnson has a free pass for an awfully long time.
Less than ten years since they left government the Labour Party is now no more relevant than a student debating society.
Labour will always get 200 seats in Tory free zones. What we need is for Jo to get 100 and the job is done. I just hope the Libs get their pitch right. They'll never have a better chance
Not so sure Roger. ITV Wales were interviewing lifelong Labour (and Leaver) voters in the Gower constituency last week. They were going straight to Boris to get Brexit done.
But by the time we get to an election, either Boris will have failed to get Brexit done, or else he will already have done it.
Did these lifelong Labour voters say what they'd do then?
Comments
Of course the Fall of Czar Jeremy may bring total meltdown...
Next week's polls could show a tipping point that Labour can not come back from.
Meanwhile Johnson and the "friend who got benefits" and the little matter of playing very fast and loose with the constitution could equally see the Tories in a spot of bother. Kaiser Boris may need to spend some time in Holland...
Is this where the simultaneous collapse of two empires allows the Polish Lib Dems to restore the glory of former centuries?
In the current insane world of the UK, you can't quite rule it out
But of course all done in the best possible taste.
Less than ten years since they left government the Labour Party is now no more relevant than a student debating society.
What if there's a large enough minority among the British public to give Corbyn a boost after this conference?
If you cant agree who has clearly won a show of hands...
This one is different.
It actually is a car crash, a disaster, an unmitigated shambles.
We've deliberated, cogitated and digested.......
https://www.itv.com/news/2019-09-23/how-jeremy-corbyn-stitched-up-labours-brexit-vote-writes-robert-peston/
Suggesting that the General Secretary had called it right? Granted it makes for a bizarre video in the way the Chair phrases it by saying she thought it was the other way, but the Chair still made the call, not the General Secretary.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49789938
https://twitter.com/tomrhickman/status/1176225655933067271?s=21
If he doesn’t know, everyone else is just guessing.
I'm a bit torn about it all to be honest. I am interested to know what the view is on the fundamental question, but its hard to escape that neither side has that question as their main concern, since parliament always had a way of stopping Johnson, and Johnson himself is getting sources out to attack the judges in advance for the people vs the elite election he hopes to have some day, so whichever side loses is not particularly affected in their next moves.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7496223/It-clear-Iran-responsible-attack-Saudi-oil-facility-Britain-France-Germany-say.html
https://news.sky.com/story/labour-falls-into-fourth-place-in-new-opinion-poll-11756313
This really is a thing of beauty though, no matter how many times we see it
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#/media/File:UK_opinion_polls.svg
The rot at the heart of Labour
So those are the bars that would need to be exceeded for any poll result to represent another step towards the Lib Dems eclipsing Labour.
“I thought it was one way,” she said. “Jennie said something else. That was lost.”
There were gasps and cheers in equal measure. Ms Nichols, the actual chair of the event, thought that the motion had carried, that Remain had won, but was saying, openly, that she had been overruled.
There was the option, at this point, to have an actual “card vote” – to count up the votes properly, if the show of hands is inconclusive. But that was rejected too. Half the hall, and I do mean half, exactly half, began chanting “Oh Jeremy Corbyn.”
Labour 2019
The Tories have bounced back. Labour are now plumbing their depths again.
I just cannot see it. Seeing how much people resist stepping away from Labour shows how hard many will find it.
"A woman called Vanessa Stilwell, there ostensibly to offer a view on Labour’s Brexit policy, saw fit to declare: “Jeremy Corbyn is the most anti-racist leader this party has ever had!”
They went wild. Labour’s most anti-racist leader? Down in the lower reaches of the Freeview channels, there are precious few list shows that have not yet been made. The Labour Party’s most anti-racist leaders would be compelling viewing.
On what basis Jeremy Corbyn edges out, say, Michael Foot, Keir Hardie, Neil Kinnock, Clement Attlee and the rest is not immediately clear, not least as none of them have been accused of active complicity in racism,"
Ouch, ouch, ouch
As for the Labour guys who were talking to him..... dear fucking god.
I give you two more words: Black Swan
I give you a further two words: Inductivist Turkey
Remainers cling to the minority opinion of Lady Hale who calls for Boris to be arrested.
No less than Henry McLeish has provided compelling evidence that Keir Hardie was an intolerant xenophobe who indulged in crude racial stereotyping and castigated foreigners for taking Scottish jobs.
As it happened, nothing happened. But with a GE maybe forthcoming this November would the EHRC delay publication during an Election or could Labour have the potential for a game changer in the middle of a campaign this time around? For better or worse?
On Brexit, he has been resolutely for Remain - which might be enough
The judges are really quite good at never giving the game away.
I think whatever side of the debate you’re on it’s important that they at least find the matter justiciable.
This will send a message that any future PM won’t get a free pass.
https://mobile.twitter.com/britainelects/status/1176241325215297536
If the law as it stands really is as the government says, then it is not for the Justices to decide to make sure a future PM will not get a free pass surely? I don't want PMs to get a free pass, and clearly many eminent legal minds think the law does not allow them that, so I hope they find it justiciable (the question of lawfulness I care less about, since I think the action was the wrong thing to do even if it is lawful) and that this sends a message, but I'd hope it is not the motivation of the justices to send that message.
Did these lifelong Labour voters say what they'd do then?