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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Another conference boost for Jo Swinson – this time from LAB

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Another conference boost for Jo Swinson – this time from LAB

The big political news has been the Labour conference decision to reject a move that would have seen the party take out-and-out Remain position in the run-up to the likely early general election.

Read the full story here


«1345

Comments

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,256
    edited September 2019
    Can now see a GE result something like Tories 30 to 35%, LDs 23%, Labour 22% after this vote
  • The reason a card vote was being called for was:
    (1) that way it would be possible to see whether CLP delegates were voting as they had been mandated by their CLPs.
    (2) to ensure that only those entitled to vote could vote.
    It is telling - though totally unsurprising - that Len McCluskey appointee Jennie Formby jumped in immediately to ensure that there was no card vote. But in doing so she will undoubtedly have pissed off a lot of party members. Not that it matters very much. Labour has finally destroyed itself this week. The only sadness is that it will take too long to die, meaning Boris Johnson has a free run at the next general election.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,482
    Labour will be fine.
  • HYUFD said:

    Can now see a GE something like Tories 30 to 35%, LDs 23%, Labour 22% after this vote

    Yep - from here it's very hard to see past a decent Tory majority despite the very high likelihood of Johnson getting far fewer votes than May received in 2017. My guess is that a lot of potential LD tactical votes for Labour will not now be cast. The big thing to look out for will be whether the LDs outpoll Labour. I think it coud happen as LD voters will be very motivated.

  • Swinson is, possibly, that rarest of beasts - a lucky leader.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,093
    HYUFD said:
    Vintage champagne in CCHQ.

    Classic Dom.

    (With apologies to those who have heard this joke before, from me, really quite recently)
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,551
    Mike is going to be very upset when the Lib-Dems only gain five seats at the general. :D
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    "oh Jeremy Corbyn" LMAO

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,256
    edited September 2019

    HYUFD said:

    Can now see a GE something like Tories 30 to 35%, LDs 23%, Labour 22% after this vote

    Yep - from here it's very hard to see past a decent Tory majority despite the very high likelihood of Johnson getting far fewer votes than May received in 2017. My guess is that a lot of potential LD tactical votes for Labour will not now be cast. The big thing to look out for will be whether the LDs outpoll Labour. I think it coud happen as LD voters will be very motivated.

    Yes I think the LDs could finally manage to do to Corbyn what the SDP Liberal Alliance narrowly failed to do to Foot in 1983 and get more votes than Labour in a general election for the first time in a century, tonight's Labour conference vote to be non committal on Brexit is that significant coupled with the hard left economics and social policy
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,482
    I'm am however stunned people break out into songs about the leader. It's very odd to do so for very ordinary politicians.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,467
    edited September 2019
    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    Jeremy wins! Surprise surprise

    So Remainers sticking with the LDs then
    I hope so. I know know lots of Labour voters who are this time following the Yellow Brick Road. I am.




  • So progress at Labour Conference. The fact they are having to use inept tricks to avoid defeat on card votes show's Corbyn's spell is broken. Thhe direction of travel is clear. Europhiles will at some point recapture the Labour leadership. Recapture it in time ? I don't know. Recapture it before Corbtn's toxic project causes institutional meltdown. Quite unlikely. But now that Boris has made Brexit an indelibly rightwing project the Newtonian counter reaction will proceed. Corbyn can only hold the line so long.

    As for the chaos at Labour Conference that's in the price. We've known Labour's institutional antisemiticism is going to collide with Equalities law for months. That collision will be career ending for dozens and incur 7 figure costs.

    We fight on.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    little Britain
    little Labour
    Big mistake
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,047
    Drutt said:

    HYUFD said:
    Vintage champagne in CCHQ.

    Classic Dom.

    (With apologies to those who have heard this joke before, from me, really quite recently)
    I really don't think Dom will be taking any credit for what Labour has done.

    It is levels of damage beyond anything he could engineer.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,179
    TBH Labour's position doesn't seem too silly to me.
    AIUI Labour wins the next election. Labour Govt. sits down with the EU to agree a future relationship, allowing for N. Ireland, Gibraltar Free Movement (or not) etc.
    Govt and EU agree a position. Labour goes back to the country; Our Deal or Remain.

    As a Remainer that seems to me to be a sensible policy.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    kle4 said:

    I'm am however stunned people break out into songs about the leader. It's very odd to do so for very ordinary politicians.

    its a cult
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,028
    Have we just seen the needle of the syringe being slipped in?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,293
    The right decision. The policy is a good one.

    And contrary to much drivel spouted it is VERY easy for people - other than the ultra dense - to understand.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,583
    People saying I am voting LD instead of Lab results in a No Deal Jester win.

    People voting Lab instead of LD results in PM Jezza and a Peoples Vote with Remain on the Ballot

    Not Rocket Science. Tory Swinson = #BolloxtostoppingBrexit
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    TBH Labour's position doesn't seem too silly to me.
    AIUI Labour wins the next election. Labour Govt. sits down with the EU to agree a future relationship, allowing for N. Ireland, Gibraltar Free Movement (or not) etc.
    Govt and EU agree a position. Labour goes back to the country; Our Deal or Remain.

    As a Remainer that seems to me to be a sensible policy.

    So explain why the EU would give them a good deal?

    What possible incentive do they have.

    Plus some of the top people in the cult are already saying they will campaign against it - campaign against their own deal.

    If that isn't silly what the hell is?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,467
    edited September 2019
    An idea for the Lib Dems. A jolly song originating from the Wizard of OZ

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DDOL7iY8kfo
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 1,811
    Floater said:

    kle4 said:

    I'm am however stunned people break out into songs about the leader. It's very odd to do so for very ordinary politicians.

    its a cult
    "Oh Borrrrrriiiisss Johnsssssooooonnn" ;)
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    People saying I am voting LD instead of Lab results in a No Deal Jester win.

    People voting Lab instead of LD results in PM Jezza and a Peoples Vote with Remain on the Ballot

    Not Rocket Science. Tory Swinson = #BolloxtostoppingBrexit

    People voting Labour enable property theft and the destruction of our economy

    # feck that
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Just a simple view from being out with a particularly Tory voting segment of the electorate today about what has exercised their thinking

    1 the government should have done something to support TC to at least get people home.

    2 the allegations of Johnson in proprietary whilst not universally accepted has actually broken through

    3 I’m afraid Greta protests too much and should have quit whilst she was in front.

    The labour party conference isn’t even on the radar and there are a few people wondering what the hell the government is doing spending money on brexit adverts when it doesn’t know what’s happening
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,583
    I see Jester says its a "moral hazard" to help TC

    Was it a "moral hazard" to pay that blonde chick £126,000 of public money for a BJ for BJ?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,333
    One thing is now crystal clear and that is that the gap between the PLP and the actual membership is not so much a chasm as a different country. Had this been an MP vote Corbyn would have lost 10-1.
  • TBH Labour's position doesn't seem too silly to me.
    AIUI Labour wins the next election. Labour Govt. sits down with the EU to agree a future relationship, allowing for N. Ireland, Gibraltar Free Movement (or not) etc.
    Govt and EU agree a position. Labour goes back to the country; Our Deal or Remain.

    As a Remainer that seems to me to be a sensible policy.

    Labour's policy is silly because it has been designed solely to accommodate Jeremy Corbyn, who is trusted by neither Remain or Leave supporters. He is the problem. As ever!

  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Floater said:

    kle4 said:

    I'm am however stunned people break out into songs about the leader. It's very odd to do so for very ordinary politicians.

    its a cult
    Do we stop around for the death throws though?
  • TBH Labour's position doesn't seem too silly to me.
    AIUI Labour wins the next election. Labour Govt. sits down with the EU to agree a future relationship, allowing for N. Ireland, Gibraltar Free Movement (or not) etc.
    Govt and EU agree a position. Labour goes back to the country; Our Deal or Remain.

    As a Remainer that seems to me to be a sensible policy.

    "Vote for us and we'll have another vote at some future date, when we may or may not favour leaving the EU".

    With a polarised electorate, it's crackers. Designed to appeal to everyone... actually appeals to (next to) nobody.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    TBH Labour's position doesn't seem too silly to me.
    AIUI Labour wins the next election. Labour Govt. sits down with the EU to agree a future relationship, allowing for N. Ireland, Gibraltar Free Movement (or not) etc.
    Govt and EU agree a position. Labour goes back to the country; Our Deal or Remain.

    As a Remainer that seems to me to be a sensible policy.

    Same here.
    The Lib Dem revoke is not democratic, and imo if implemented would cause civil unrest.
  • DavidL said:

    One thing is now crystal clear and that is that the gap between the PLP and the actual membership is not so much a chasm as a different country. Had this been an MP vote Corbyn would have lost 10-1.

    By denying a card vote, the leadership has ensured it is not possible to know how constituency delegates voted. There will be strong suspicions that many did not follow the mandates they were given by members.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,256
    edited September 2019
    nichomar said:

    Just a simple view from being out with a particularly Tory voting segment of the electorate today about what has exercised their thinking

    1 the government should have done something to support TC to at least get people home.

    2 the allegations of Johnson in proprietary whilst not universally accepted has actually broken through

    3 I’m afraid Greta protests too much and should have quit whilst she was in front.

    The labour party conference isn’t even on the radar and there are a few people wondering what the hell the government is doing spending money on brexit adverts when it doesn’t know what’s happening

    Yougov today has most voters backing the government's decision not to bail out Thomas Cook by 54% to 22% (and the Government is bringing travellers home) while opposing Labour's policy to abolish private schools by 50% to 22%
    https://yougov.co.uk/opi/surveys/results#/survey/07579420-dde5-11e9-8b4a-578fdf782d3e
  • Yorkcity said:

    TBH Labour's position doesn't seem too silly to me.
    AIUI Labour wins the next election. Labour Govt. sits down with the EU to agree a future relationship, allowing for N. Ireland, Gibraltar Free Movement (or not) etc.
    Govt and EU agree a position. Labour goes back to the country; Our Deal or Remain.

    As a Remainer that seems to me to be a sensible policy.

    Same here.
    The Lib Dem revoke is not democratic, and imo if implemented would cause civil unrest.
    Why? They would have democratically won a GE having been fully open about their intentions.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,583

    So progress at Labour Conference. The fact they are having to use inept tricks to avoid defeat on card votes show's Corbyn's spell is broken. Thhe direction of travel is clear. Europhiles will at some point recapture the Labour leadership. Recapture it in time ? I don't know. Recapture it before Corbtn's toxic project causes institutional meltdown. Quite unlikely. But now that Boris has made Brexit an indelibly rightwing project the Newtonian counter reaction will proceed. Corbyn can only hold the line so long.

    As for the chaos at Labour Conference that's in the price. We've known Labour's institutional antisemiticism is going to collide with Equalities law for months. That collision will be career ending for dozens and incur 7 figure costs.

    We fight on.

    You gone off a Peoples Vote?

    PM Corbyn means a Peoples Vote PM Jester means No Deal Brexit

    A vote for Tory Swinson makes the latter most likely outcome

    Its not Rocket Science Tory Swinson = #BolloxtostoppingBrexit
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,467
    Voters from 1997 onwards have been pretty smart at voting against governments they didn't like. This time I think it'll be Johnson's. How they achieve it is a mystery but they usually find a way
  • kinabalu said:

    The right decision. The policy is a good one.

    And contrary to much drivel spouted it is VERY easy for people - other than the ultra dense - to understand.

    They understand it, but it doesn't answer the question everyone is asking, which is "are you in favour of Remaining in or Leaving the EU?"
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,583

    Yorkcity said:

    TBH Labour's position doesn't seem too silly to me.
    AIUI Labour wins the next election. Labour Govt. sits down with the EU to agree a future relationship, allowing for N. Ireland, Gibraltar Free Movement (or not) etc.
    Govt and EU agree a position. Labour goes back to the country; Our Deal or Remain.

    As a Remainer that seems to me to be a sensible policy.

    Same here.
    The Lib Dem revoke is not democratic, and imo if implemented would cause civil unrest.
    Why? They would have democratically won a GE having been fully open about their intentions.
    Dreamland

    A vote for Tory Swinson is a vote for Jesters No Deal
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,467
    edited September 2019
    Roger said:

    An idea for the Lib Dems. A jolly song originating from the Wizard of OZ

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DDOL7iY8kfo

    Colours always go down well as a theme. Think football..
  • Yellow_SubmarineYellow_Submarine Posts: 647
    edited September 2019
    I'm pleased to see the snap YouGov numbers heavily backing the Government's decision not to bail out Thomas Cook. Given it was taken in the heat of the moment with bogus cost/benefit analyses floating about it suggests those figures will improve after the shock wears off. I suspect this is a slow burner with the initial chaos being much less than hyped ( even the Guardian Live Blog is struggling to find much genuine hardship ) and longer term the loss of the 500 odd shop network will be the bigger story domestically.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    kle4 said:

    I'm am however stunned people break out into songs about the leader. It's very odd to do so for very ordinary politicians.

    They’re not ordinary people. Religion is a strange old beast.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,583

    TBH Labour's position doesn't seem too silly to me.
    AIUI Labour wins the next election. Labour Govt. sits down with the EU to agree a future relationship, allowing for N. Ireland, Gibraltar Free Movement (or not) etc.
    Govt and EU agree a position. Labour goes back to the country; Our Deal or Remain.

    As a Remainer that seems to me to be a sensible policy.

    "Vote for us and we'll have another vote at some future date, when we may or may not favour leaving the EU".

    With a polarised electorate, it's crackers. Designed to appeal to everyone... actually appeals to (next to) nobody.
    Not at some future date

    Within 6 months
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Thanks to the votes today Labour stand a chance at the next election also but at a lesser level delighted to see Watsons boys were defeated today.

    Where does this leave the line about evil Corbyn going against the members and being anti democratic?

    Such a shame....



  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,275
    HYUFD said:

    Can now see a GE result something like Tories 30 to 35%, LDs 23%, Labour 22% after this vote

    Using the latest YOuGOv figures for tactical voting by Lab and LDs, my tactical voting model, on your figures, gives:

    Tories/Lab/LD

    30/22/23 .... 293/225/62
    35/22/23 .... 321/205/55
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Roger said:

    Voters from 1997 onwards have been pretty smart at voting against governments they didn't like. This time I think it'll be Johnson's. How they achieve it is a mystery but they usually find a way

    There was generally a reasonably positive alternative. Perhaps 1983, which you’ve avoided, is instructive.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Where does this leave the line about evil Corbyn going against the members and being anti democratic?

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1176208844424458246
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,583

    kinabalu said:

    The right decision. The policy is a good one.

    And contrary to much drivel spouted it is VERY easy for people - other than the ultra dense - to understand.

    They understand it, but it doesn't answer the question everyone is asking, which is "are you in favour of Remaining in or Leaving the EU?"
    Depends on the Deal and anyway the People get to decide.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,333
    So Boris comes back to the Commons with a deal that looks incredibly like May's. What does Labour do after this? Deal or no deal?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Interesting view
    caroline cherry 🔶#ShortCummings#FBPE Retweeted

    Nick Boles MP
    @NickBoles
    I have 5 A levels and degrees from Oxford and Harvard. Angela Rayner is a far better politician than I will ever be. And a far more admirable human being than the mean spirited snobs who sneer at her.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Scott_P said:

    Where does this leave the line about evil Corbyn going against the members and being anti democratic?

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1176208844424458246
    Ahh, a conspiracy, that is how the evil Corbyn pulled it off... damn he is one dastardly Stalinist.

    Sour grapes by any chance? :smile:
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,903

    HYUFD said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    All party conferences end up being echo chambers to a certain extent however the current Labour one is plumbing new depths .

    The abolishing private schools is peak echo chamber , this policy is a gift to both the Tories and Lib Dems .

    People like choices , parents even if they don’t currently have the money to send their children to private school might one day dream they might be able to do that.

    This policy falls apart because it’s economically illiterate, those children currently in private schools will now have to be accommodated in the state sector . How many people will lose their jobs who currently work in private schools .

    The policy smacks of a government telling parents we know better and restricting choice.

    On top of this it smacks of hypocrisy , some Labour MPs have sent their children to private schools or they themselves went through that .

    This policy is a vote loser and I can’t see anyway that this helps Labour in a GE.


    I can see removing charitable status, or charging VAT on school fees or one of a number of other things happening. I don't think abolishing private schools is going to be in the next manifesto.
    The Labour conference have just voted abolishing private schools to be official Labour Party policy
    While I rarely agree with @charles his view that state schools should be good enough for people to not need private ones. Have always believed that but whilst people with influence don’t experience the problems of the the state system little will change.
    Even if private schools were abolished people with influence would send their children to a grammar school or an outstanding comprehensive, academy or free school anyway not a requires improvement or inadequate bog standard comprehensive with coaching, church attendance or moving to the right catchment area being used instead of school fees
    How do you 'send' your child to a grammar school? They have to pass an examination.
    Well, if Corbyn could manage it they're clearly not terribly hard.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,890
    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Can now see a GE result something like Tories 30 to 35%, LDs 23%, Labour 22% after this vote

    Using the latest YOuGOv figures for tactical voting by Lab and LDs, my tactical voting model, on your figures, gives:

    Tories/Lab/LD

    30/22/23 .... 293/225/62
    35/22/23 .... 321/205/55
    Seems reasonable enough, provided nothing at all controversial happens between now and the election. I can't think of anything that could, but who knows? (I do seem to remember reading something about the possibility of our leaving the European Union, but maybe I was imagining it.)
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,275

    People saying I am voting LD instead of Lab results in a No Deal Jester win.

    People voting Lab instead of LD results in PM Jezza and a Peoples Vote with Remain on the Ballot

    Not Rocket Science. Tory Swinson = #BolloxtostoppingBrexit

    Some LDs will vote Labour and some Labour will vote LD, depending on the constituency, to stop the Tories. The Greens will do the same.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,482
    While the actual Labour policy is not as destructive as it may seem, the party will probably still be thankful there will be a much bigger story dominating for the rest of the week.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,256
    nichomar said:

    Interesting view
    caroline cherry 🔶#ShortCummings#FBPE Retweeted

    Nick Boles MP
    @NickBoles
    I have 5 A levels and degrees from Oxford and Harvard. Angela Rayner is a far better politician than I will ever be. And a far more admirable human being than the mean spirited snobs who sneer at her.

    Humble brag if ever there was one
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    All party conferences end up being echo chambers to a certain extent however the current Labour one is plumbing new depths .

    The abolishing private schools is peak echo chamber , this policy is a gift to both the Tories and Lib Dems .

    People like choices , parents even if they don’t currently have the money to send their children to private school might one day dream they might be able to do that.

    This policy falls apart because it’s economically illiterate, those children currently in private schools will now have to be accommodated in the state sector . How many people will lose their jobs who currently work in private schools .

    The policy smacks of a government telling parents we know better and restricting choice.

    On top of this it smacks of hypocrisy , some Labour MPs have sent their children to private schools or they themselves went through that .

    This policy is a vote loser and I can’t see anyway that this helps Labour in a GE.


    I can see removing charitable status, or charging VAT on school fees or one of a number of other things happening. I don't think abolishing private schools is going to be in the next manifesto.
    The Labour conference have just voted abolishing private schools to be official Labour Party policy
    While I rarely agree with @charles his view that state schools should be good enough for people to not need private ones. Have always believed that but whilst people with influence don’t experience the problems of the the state system little will change.
    Even if private schools were abolished people with influence would send their children to a grammar school or an outstanding comprehensive, academy or free school anyway not a requires improvement or inadequate bog standard comprehensive with coaching, church attendance or moving to the right catchment area being used instead of school fees
    How do you 'send' your child to a grammar school? They have to pass an examination.
    Well, if Corbyn could manage it they're clearly not terribly hard.
    Money money money I believe
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,256
    edited September 2019
    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Can now see a GE result something like Tories 30 to 35%, LDs 23%, Labour 22% after this vote

    Using the latest YOuGOv figures for tactical voting by Lab and LDs, my tactical voting model, on your figures, gives:

    Tories/Lab/LD

    30/22/23 .... 293/225/62
    35/22/23 .... 321/205/55
    Tories would be on 346 seats in the latter scenario on UNS, the highest number of Tory MPs won by a Tory leader since Thatcher in 1987 and after tonight's vote I suspect you can count the LD tactical votes for Corbyn Labour on one hand
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,482
    I will say the video of the vote on the Brexit motion does look awfully awkward for the person chairing it. Cannot imagine many will see that though.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Yorkcity said:

    TBH Labour's position doesn't seem too silly to me.
    AIUI Labour wins the next election. Labour Govt. sits down with the EU to agree a future relationship, allowing for N. Ireland, Gibraltar Free Movement (or not) etc.
    Govt and EU agree a position. Labour goes back to the country; Our Deal or Remain.

    As a Remainer that seems to me to be a sensible policy.

    Same here.
    The Lib Dem revoke is not democratic, and imo if implemented would cause civil unrest.
    Why? They would have democratically won a GE having been fully open about their intentions.
    Because GE , would not be totally about Brexit.
    Where a referendum would be.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    edited September 2019
    Scott_P said:
    Keep existing welfare standards for as little time as they can get away with is what he means. Anyone who trusts the maniacs who wake up every morning going 'red tape, red tape, everywhere red tape' into their mirrors is a fool.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,890

    I'm pleased to see the snap YouGov numbers heavily backing the Government's decision not to bail out Thomas Cook. Given it was taken in the heat of the moment with bogus cost/benefit analyses floating about it suggests those figures will improve after the shock wears off. I suspect this is a slow burner with the initial chaos being much less than hyped ( even the Guardian Live Blog is struggling to find much genuine hardship ) and longer term the loss of the 500 odd shop network will be the bigger story domestically.

    Well, the Lyk Card website is still redirecting to a statement about Thomas Cook having ceased trading, so I hope the FSCS is applicable.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,583
    There’ll either be a hard right Tory government offering a hard Brexit, or an anti-austerity Labour government offering a referendum with Remain on the ballot, in which a large majority of Labour will campaign for Remain.

    Everything else is noise.
  • nichomar said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    All party conferences end up being echo chambers to a certain extent however the current Labour one is plumbing new depths .

    The abolishing private schools is peak echo chamber , this policy is a gift to both the Tories and Lib Dems .

    People like choices , parents even if they don’t currently have the money to send their children to private school might one day dream they might be able to do that.

    This policy falls apart because it’s economically illiterate, those children currently in private schools will now have to be accommodated in the state sector . How many people will lose their jobs who currently work in private schools .

    The policy smacks of a government telling parents we know better and restricting choice.

    On top of this it smacks of hypocrisy , some Labour MPs have sent their children to private schools or they themselves went through that .

    This policy is a vote loser and I can’t see anyway that this helps Labour in a GE.


    I can see removing charitable status, or charging VAT on school fees or one of a number of other things happening. I don't think abolishing private schools is going to be in the next manifesto.
    The Labour conference have just voted abolishing private schools to be official Labour Party policy
    While I rarely agree with @charles his view that state schools should be good enough for people to not need private ones. Have always believed that but whilst people with influence don’t experience the problems of the the state system little will change.
    Even if private schools were abolished people with influence would send their children to a grammar school or an outstanding comprehensive, academy or free school anyway not a requires improvement or inadequate bog standard comprehensive with coaching, church attendance or moving to the right catchment area being used instead of school fees
    How do you 'send' your child to a grammar school? They have to pass an examination.
    Well, if Corbyn could manage it they're clearly not terribly hard.
    Money money money I believe
    The really key point of this private schools policy is that it is massive and I say massive trojan horse for the state taking away private property whenever Momentum decide.

    They are proposing to take away these schools' endowments, playing fields, buildings etc etc and redistribute.

    Today, private schools. Tomorrow a house with a spare bedroom.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,482
    edited September 2019
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,047

    There’ll either be a hard right Tory government offering a hard Brexit, or an anti-austerity Labour government offering a referendum with Remain on the ballot, in which a large majority of Labour will campaign for Remain.

    Everything else is noise.

    That one's a keeper.....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,256
    edited September 2019

    There’ll either be a hard right Tory government offering a hard Brexit, or an anti-austerity Labour government offering a referendum with Remain on the ballot, in which a large majority of Labour will campaign for Remain.

    Everything else is noise.

    The LDs were ahead of Labour with Yougov last week even before today's Labour conference shambles
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,890

    There’ll either be a hard right Tory government offering a hard Brexit, or an anti-austerity Labour government offering a referendum with Remain on the ballot, in which a large majority of Labour will campaign for Remain.

    Everything else is noise.

    Oi! Prime Minister Swinson could be revoking. (unicorn)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,256
    nichomar said:

    Interesting view
    caroline cherry 🔶#ShortCummings#FBPE Retweeted

    Nick Boles MP
    @NickBoles
    I have 5 A levels and degrees from Oxford and Harvard. Angela Rayner is a far better politician than I will ever be. And a far more admirable human being than the mean spirited snobs who sneer at her.

    The context

    https://twitter.com/allisonpearson/status/1176043087103238149?s=20
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,179
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    All party conferences end up being echo chambers to a certain extent however the current Labour one is plumbing new depths .

    The abolishing private schools is peak echo chamber , this policy is a gift to both the Tories and Lib Dems .

    People like choices , parents even if they don’t currently have the money to send their children to private school might one day dream they might be able to do that.

    This policy falls apart because it’s economically illiterate, those children currently in private schools will now have to be accommodated in the state sector . How many people will lose their jobs who currently work in private schools .

    The policy smacks of a government telling parents we know better and restricting choice.

    On top of this it smacks of hypocrisy , some Labour MPs have sent their children to private schools or they themselves went through that .

    This policy is a vote loser and I can’t see anyway that this helps Labour in a GE.


    I can see removing charitable status, or charging VAT on school fees or one of a number of other things happening. I don't think abolishing private schools is going to be in the next manifesto.
    The Labour conference have just voted abolishing private schools to be official Labour Party policy
    While I rarely agree with @charles his view that state schools should be good enough for people to not need private ones. Have always believed that but whilst people with influence don’t experience the problems of the the state system little will change.
    Even if private schools were abolished people with influence would send their children to a grammar school or an outstanding comprehensive, academy or free school anyway not a requires improvement or inadequate bog standard comprehensive with coaching, church attendance or moving to the right catchment area being used instead of school fees
    How do you 'send' your child to a grammar school? They have to pass an examination.
    Well, if Corbyn could manage it they're clearly not terribly hard.
    Are you the product of a private school or comprehensive then? I can assure you that in the late 40's the exam seemed hard, to both my self and wife, and our siblings.
    It also seemed hard, I was told, to the grandchildren who live in Kent and therefore had the pleasure of a) studying for it and b) taking it.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,275
    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Can now see a GE result something like Tories 30 to 35%, LDs 23%, Labour 22% after this vote

    Using the latest YOuGOv figures for tactical voting by Lab and LDs, my tactical voting model, on your figures, gives:

    Tories/Lab/LD

    30/22/23 .... 293/225/62
    35/22/23 .... 321/205/55
    Tories would be on 346 seats in the latter scenario on UNS, the highest number of Tory MPs won by a Tory leader since Thatcher in 1987 and after tonight's vote I suspect you can count the LD tactical votes for Corbyn Labour on one hand
    Most LDs are anti-Brexit and therefore anti-Tory and many will vote tactically for Lab, The YouGov poll indicates 35% will (and 65% won't). That's what I've used.

    The Labour party position on Brexit hasn't changed, It is still equivocal but it does include a second referendum. I don't think it will change LibDem tactical voting behaviour much, but I think it will cause some more Labour supporters to defect to the LibDems.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,028
    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Can now see a GE result something like Tories 30 to 35%, LDs 23%, Labour 22% after this vote

    Using the latest YOuGOv figures for tactical voting by Lab and LDs, my tactical voting model, on your figures, gives:

    Tories/Lab/LD

    30/22/23 .... 293/225/62
    35/22/23 .... 321/205/55
    Tories would be on 346 seats in the latter scenario on UNS, the highest number of Tory MPs won by a Tory leader since Thatcher in 1987 and after tonight's vote I suspect you can count the LD tactical votes for Corbyn Labour on one hand
    Most LDs are anti-Brexit and therefore anti-Tory and many will vote tactically for Lab, The YouGov poll indicates 35% will (and 65% won't). That's what I've used.

    The Labour party position on Brexit hasn't changed, It is still equivocal but it does include a second referendum. I don't think it will change LibDem tactical voting behaviour much, but I think it will cause some more Labour supporters to defect to the LibDems.
    Too simplistic. We don't mind some Tories. Just not the current lot
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,256

    nichomar said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    All party conferences end up being echo chambers to a certain extent however the current Labour one is plumbing new depths .

    The abolishing private schools is peak echo chamber , this policy is a gift to both the Tories and Lib Dems .

    People like choices , parents even if they don’t currently have the money to send their children to private school might one day dream they might be able to do that.

    This policy falls apart because it’s economically illiterate, those children currently in private schools will now have to be accommodated in the state sector . How many people will lose their jobs who currently work in private schools .

    The policy smacks of a government telling parents we know better and restricting choice.

    On top of this it smacks of hypocrisy , some Labour MPs have sent their children to private schools or they themselves went through that .

    This policy is a vote loser and I can’t see anyway that this helps Labour in a GE.


    I can see removing charitable status, or charging VAT on school fees or one of a number of other things happening. I don't think abolishing private schools is going to be in the next manifesto.
    The Labour conference have just voted abolishing private schools to be official Labour Party policy
    While I rarely agree with @charles his view that state schools should be good enough for people to not need private ones. Have always believed that but whilst people with influence don’t experience the problems of the the state system little will change.
    Even if private schools were abolished people with influence would send their children to a grammar school or an outstanding sed instead of school fees
    How do you 'send' your child to a grammar school? They have to pass an examination.
    Well, if Corbyn could manage it they're clearly not terribly hard.
    Money money money I believe
    The really key point of this private schools policy is that it is massive and I say massive trojan horse for the state taking away private property whenever Momentum decide.

    They are proposing to take away these schools' endowments, playing fields, buildings etc etc and redistribute.

    Today, private schools. Tomorrow a house with a spare bedroom.
    Under a Corbyn majority Government we would all live in state owned housing, work for nationalised companies and our children would attend bog standard comprehensives, choice and private property would be virtually non existent
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    HYUFD said:

    There’ll either be a hard right Tory government offering a hard Brexit, or an anti-austerity Labour government offering a referendum with Remain on the ballot, in which a large majority of Labour will campaign for Remain.

    Everything else is noise.

    The LDs were ahead of Labour with Yougov last week even before today's Labour conference shambles
    Yes but if we leave on 311019 as you state Boris Johnson will do.
    The Lib dem policy would be then re-join ?
    Do you think that would be popular ?
    My guess is most people would want to move on to domestic issues.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    HYUFD said:

    nichomar said:

    Interesting view
    caroline cherry 🔶#ShortCummings#FBPE Retweeted

    Nick Boles MP
    @NickBoles
    I have 5 A levels and degrees from Oxford and Harvard. Angela Rayner is a far better politician than I will ever be. And a far more admirable human being than the mean spirited snobs who sneer at her.

    The context

    https://twitter.com/allisonpearson/status/1176043087103238149?s=20
    I’m sorry but is pathetic whilst I have limited sympathy for labour policy you denigrate a women who, against all odds, has achieved something in her life. There are many reasons why people get good grades and many reasons why some don’t but it isn’t the be and end all measurement of ones worth.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,256
    No they would be the next to defect to the LDs
  • nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    nichomar said:

    Interesting view
    caroline cherry 🔶#ShortCummings#FBPE Retweeted

    Nick Boles MP
    @NickBoles
    I have 5 A levels and degrees from Oxford and Harvard. Angela Rayner is a far better politician than I will ever be. And a far more admirable human being than the mean spirited snobs who sneer at her.

    The context

    https://twitter.com/allisonpearson/status/1176043087103238149?s=20
    I’m sorry but is pathetic whilst I have limited sympathy for labour policy you denigrate a women who, against all odds, has achieved something in her life. There are many reasons why people get good grades and many reasons why some don’t but it isn’t the be and end all measurement of ones worth.
    Wait until Pearson finds out that Rayner has a very good chance of being next leader.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,256
    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    nichomar said:

    Interesting view
    caroline cherry 🔶#ShortCummings#FBPE Retweeted

    Nick Boles MP
    @NickBoles
    I have 5 A levels and degrees from Oxford and Harvard. Angela Rayner is a far better politician than I will ever be. And a far more admirable human being than the mean spirited snobs who sneer at her.

    The context

    https://twitter.com/allisonpearson/status/1176043087103238149?s=20
    I’m sorry but is pathetic whilst I have limited sympathy for labour policy you denigrate a women who, against all odds, has achieved something in her life. There are many reasons why people get good grades and many reasons why some don’t but it isn’t the be and end all measurement of ones worth.
    I said the context, a neutral term identifying what Boles was replying to
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,256
    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    There’ll either be a hard right Tory government offering a hard Brexit, or an anti-austerity Labour government offering a referendum with Remain on the ballot, in which a large majority of Labour will campaign for Remain.

    Everything else is noise.

    The LDs were ahead of Labour with Yougov last week even before today's Labour conference shambles
    Yes but if we leave on 311019 as you state Boris Johnson will do.
    The Lib dem policy would be then re-join ?
    Do you think that would be popular ?
    My guess is most people would want to move on to domestic issues.
    Like 32 hour weeks and abolishing private schools you mean?
  • HYUFD said:

    nichomar said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    All party conferences end up being echo chambers to a certain extent however the current Labour one is plumbing new depths .

    The abolishing private schools is peak echo chamber , this policy is a gift to both the Tories and Lib Dems .

    People like choices , parents even if they don’t currently have the money to send their children to private school might one day dream they might be able to do that.

    This policy falls apart because it’s economically illiterate, those children currently in private schools will now have to be accommodated in the state sector . How many people will lose their jobs who currently work in private schools .

    The policy smacks of a government telling parents we know better and restricting choice.

    On top of this it smacks of hypocrisy , some Labour MPs have sent their children to private schools or they themselves went through that .

    This policy is a vote loser and I can’t see anyway that this helps Labour in a GE.


    I can see removing charitable status, or charging VAT on school fees or one of a number of other things happening. I don't think abolishing private schools is going to be in the next manifesto.
    The Labour conference have just voted abolishing private schools to be official Labour Party policy
    snip.
    Even if private schools were abolished people with influence would send their children to a grammar school or an outstanding sed instead of school fees
    How do you 'send' your child to a grammar school? They have to pass an examination.
    Well, if Corbyn could manage it they're clearly not terribly hard.
    Money money money I believe
    The really key point of this private schools policy is that it is massive and I say massive trojan horse for the state taking away private property whenever Momentum decide.

    They are proposing to take away these schools' endowments, playing fields, buildings etc etc and redistribute.

    Today, private schools. Tomorrow a house with a spare bedroom.
    Under a Corbyn majority Government we would all live in state owned housing, work for nationalised companies and our children would attend bog standard comprehensives, choice and private property would be virtually non existent
    Certainly looks that way.

    Those banker analysts quoted in the Guardian the other day who say the City is coming around to the idea of Corbyn need to take a look at the policies coming out of this shambles of a conference.
  • nichomar said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    All party conferences end up being echo chambers to a certain extent however the current Labour one is plumbing new depths .

    The abolishing private schools is peak echo chamber , this policy is a gift to both the Tories and Lib Dems .

    People like choices , parents even if they don’t currently have the money to send their children to private school might one day dream they might be able to do that.

    This policy falls apart because it’s economically illiterate, those children currently in private schools will now have to be accommodated in the state sector . How many people will lose their jobs who currently work in private schools .

    The policy smacks of a government telling parents we know better and restricting choice.

    On top of this it smacks of hypocrisy , some Labour MPs have sent their children to private schools or they themselves went through that .

    This policy is a vote loser and I can’t see anyway that this helps Labour in a GE.


    I can see removing charitable status, or charging VAT on school fees or one of a number of other things happening. I don't think abolishing private schools is going to be in the next manifesto.
    The Labour conference have just voted abolishing private schools to be official Labour Party policy
    While I rarely agree with @charles his view that state schools should be good enough for people to not need private ones. Have always believed that but whilst people with influence don’t experience the problems of the the state system little will change.
    Even if private schools were abolished people with influence would send their children to a grammar school or an outstanding sed instead of school fees
    How do you 'send' your child to a grammar school? They have to pass an examination.
    Well, if Corbyn could manage it they're clearly not terribly hard.
    Money money money I believe
    The really key point of this private schools policy is that it is massive and I say massive trojan horse for the state taking away private property whenever Momentum decide.

    They are proposing to take away these schools' endowments, playing fields, buildings etc etc and redistribute.

    Today, private schools. Tomorrow a house with a spare bedroom.
    Garden tax.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,256
    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Can now see a GE result something like Tories 30 to 35%, LDs 23%, Labour 22% after this vote

    Using the latest YOuGOv figures for tactical voting by Lab and LDs, my tactical voting model, on your figures, gives:

    Tories/Lab/LD

    30/22/23 .... 293/225/62
    35/22/23 .... 321/205/55
    Tories would be on 346 seats in the latter scenario on UNS, the highest number of Tory MPs won by a Tory leader since Thatcher in 1987 and after tonight's vote I suspect you can count the LD tactical votes for Corbyn Labour on one hand
    Most LDs are anti-Brexit and therefore anti-Tory and many will vote tactically for Lab, The YouGov poll indicates 35% will (and 65% won't). That's what I've used.

    The Labour party position on Brexit hasn't changed, It is still equivocal but it does include a second referendum. I don't think it will change LibDem tactical voting behaviour much, but I think it will cause some more Labour supporters to defect to the LibDems.
    LD tactical votes were already there in 2017 they will be down on then and my figures were on UNS from 2017
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,275
    Tabman said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Can now see a GE result something like Tories 30 to 35%, LDs 23%, Labour 22% after this vote

    Using the latest YOuGOv figures for tactical voting by Lab and LDs, my tactical voting model, on your figures, gives:

    Tories/Lab/LD

    30/22/23 .... 293/225/62
    35/22/23 .... 321/205/55
    Tories would be on 346 seats in the latter scenario on UNS, the highest number of Tory MPs won by a Tory leader since Thatcher in 1987 and after tonight's vote I suspect you can count the LD tactical votes for Corbyn Labour on one hand
    Most LDs are anti-Brexit and therefore anti-Tory and many will vote tactically for Lab, The YouGov poll indicates 35% will (and 65% won't). That's what I've used.

    The Labour party position on Brexit hasn't changed, It is still equivocal but it does include a second referendum. I don't think it will change LibDem tactical voting behaviour much, but I think it will cause some more Labour supporters to defect to the LibDems.
    Too simplistic. We don't mind some Tories. Just not the current lot
    That's what I mean. It's the current lot that will be fighting the next GE.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    kle4 said:

    While the actual Labour policy is not as destructive as it may seem, the party will probably still be thankful there will be a much bigger story dominating for the rest of the week.

    Yes , Thomas Cook , was the main news today.
    Boris Johnson also got a hearing on his use of tax payers money to his past girl friend.
    With the supreme court hearing to come .
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Jezza the gift that keeps on giving to the LibDems.

    The yellow peril dead in the water last year and Corbyn has kindly insisted on breathing life into the corpse and now the monster is on the threshold on consuming the composite remnants of the Labour party.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    HYUFD said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    nichomar said:

    Interesting view
    caroline cherry 🔶#ShortCummings#FBPE Retweeted

    Nick Boles MP
    @NickBoles
    I have 5 A levels and degrees from Oxford and Harvard. Angela Rayner is a far better politician than I will ever be. And a far more admirable human being than the mean spirited snobs who sneer at her.

    The context

    https://twitter.com/allisonpearson/status/1176043087103238149?s=20
    I’m sorry but is pathetic whilst I have limited sympathy for labour policy you denigrate a women who, against all odds, has achieved something in her life. There are many reasons why people get good grades and many reasons why some don’t but it isn’t the be and end all measurement of ones worth.
    I said the context, a neutral term identifying what Boles was replying to
    Ok but by implication you appeared to be supporting that view that her background was unsuitable for her job.
  • DavidL said:

    So Boris comes back to the Commons with a deal that looks incredibly like May's. What does Labour do after this? Deal or no deal?

    Do Labour decide to share?

    Or to shaft?
  • JackW said:

    Jezza the gift that keeps on giving to the LibDems.

    The yellow peril dead in the water last year and Corbyn has kindly insisted on breathing life into the corpse and now the monster is on the threshold on consuming the composite remnants of the Labour party.

    Tush, tush. Seamus is a tactical genius don't you know!
  • JackW said:

    Jezza the gift that keeps on giving to the LibDems.

    The yellow peril dead in the water last year and Corbyn has kindly insisted on breathing life into the corpse and now the monster is on the threshold on consuming the composite remnants of the Labour party.

    The cult though he was the messiah and he's brought them back from the dead....
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,093
    Chris said:

    I'm pleased to see the snap YouGov numbers heavily backing the Government's decision not to bail out Thomas Cook. Given it was taken in the heat of the moment with bogus cost/benefit analyses floating about it suggests those figures will improve after the shock wears off. I suspect this is a slow burner with the initial chaos being much less than hyped ( even the Guardian Live Blog is struggling to find much genuine hardship ) and longer term the loss of the 500 odd shop network will be the bigger story domestically.

    Well, the Lyk Card website is still redirecting to a statement about Thomas Cook having ceased trading, so I hope the FSCS is applicable.
    I think the Lyk money is held by MasterCard so it's not affected by TC's liquidation.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,758
    Yorkcity said:

    Yorkcity said:

    TBH Labour's position doesn't seem too silly to me.
    AIUI Labour wins the next election. Labour Govt. sits down with the EU to agree a future relationship, allowing for N. Ireland, Gibraltar Free Movement (or not) etc.
    Govt and EU agree a position. Labour goes back to the country; Our Deal or Remain.

    As a Remainer that seems to me to be a sensible policy.

    Same here.
    The Lib Dem revoke is not democratic, and imo if implemented would cause civil unrest.
    Why? They would have democratically won a GE having been fully open about their intentions.
    Because GE , would not be totally about Brexit.
    Where a referendum would be.
    Yet Leavers don't want to have a referendum to see if the public support the deal.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,502
    Yorkcity said:

    kle4 said:

    While the actual Labour policy is not as destructive as it may seem, the party will probably still be thankful there will be a much bigger story dominating for the rest of the week.

    Yes , Thomas Cook , was the main news today.
    Boris Johnson also got a hearing on his use of tax payers money to his past girl friend.
    With the supreme court hearing to come .
    So the best chance Labour have is that people don't notice what they're doing.One wonders why they bother at all.
  • So if we are to do 4 days work for 5 days pay doesn't that mean that for the NHS:

    There will need to be a 25% increase in employees

    or

    NHS employees will need to increase their work rate by 25%

    or

    NHS services will need to be reduced by 20%

    or

    some combination of the above.

    And likewise for the rest of the public sector.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,275
    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Can now see a GE result something like Tories 30 to 35%, LDs 23%, Labour 22% after this vote

    Using the latest YOuGOv figures for tactical voting by Lab and LDs, my tactical voting model, on your figures, gives:

    Tories/Lab/LD

    30/22/23 .... 293/225/62
    35/22/23 .... 321/205/55
    Tories would be on 346 seats in the latter scenario on UNS, the highest number of Tory MPs won by a Tory leader since Thatcher in 1987 and after tonight's vote I suspect you can count the LD tactical votes for Corbyn Labour on one hand
    Most LDs are anti-Brexit and therefore anti-Tory and many will vote tactically for Lab, The YouGov poll indicates 35% will (and 65% won't). That's what I've used.

    The Labour party position on Brexit hasn't changed, It is still equivocal but it does include a second referendum. I don't think it will change LibDem tactical voting behaviour much, but I think it will cause some more Labour supporters to defect to the LibDems.
    LD tactical votes were already there in 2017 they will be down on then and my figures were on UNS from 2017
    It was a much lower LD base in 2017. In your scenario we are looking at a base of 23% LDs considering whether to tactically vote, not the 7% LDs of 2017.
This discussion has been closed.