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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Another conference boost for Jo Swinson – this time from LAB

The big political news has been the Labour conference decision to reject a move that would have seen the party take out-and-out Remain position in the run-up to the likely early general election.

Read the full story here

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/DMiliband/status/1176197121395105793?s=20

HYUFD

Can now see a GE result something like Tories 30 to 35%, LDs 23%, Labour 22% after this vote

SouthamObserver

The reason a card vote was being called for was:
(1) that way it would be possible to see whether CLP delegates were voting as they had been mandated by their CLPs.
(2) to ensure that only those entitled to vote could vote.
It is telling - though totally unsurprising - that Len McCluskey appointee Jennie Formby jumped in immediately to ensure that there was no card vote. But in doing so she will undoubtedly have pissed off a lot of party members. Not that it matters very much. Labour has finally destroyed itself this week. The only sadness is that it will take too long to die, meaning Boris Johnson has a free run at the next general election.

kle4

Labour will be fine.

SouthamObserver

HYUFD said:

Can now see a GE something like Tories 30 to 35%, LDs 23%, Labour 22% after this vote

Yep - from here it's very hard to see past a decent Tory majority despite the very high likelihood of Johnson getting far fewer votes than May received in 2017. My guess is that a lot of potential LD tactical votes for Labour will not now be cast. The big thing to look out for will be whether the LDs outpoll Labour. I think it coud happen as LD voters will be very motivated.

SirNorfolkPassmore

Swinson is, possibly, that rarest of beasts - a lucky leader.

Drutt

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/DMiliband/status/1176197121395105793?s=20

Vintage champagne in CCHQ.

Classic Dom.

(With apologies to those who have heard this joke before, from me, really quite recently)

GIN1138

Mike is going to be very upset when the Lib-Dems only gain five seats at the general.

Floater

"oh Jeremy Corbyn" LMAO

HYUFD

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

Can now see a GE something like Tories 30 to 35%, LDs 23%, Labour 22% after this vote

Yep - from here it's very hard to see past a decent Tory majority despite the very high likelihood of Johnson getting far fewer votes than May received in 2017. My guess is that a lot of potential LD tactical votes for Labour will not now be cast. The big thing to look out for will be whether the LDs outpoll Labour. I think it coud happen as LD voters will be very motivated.

Yes I think the LDs could finally manage to do to Corbyn what the SDP Liberal Alliance narrowly failed to do to Foot in 1983 and get more votes than Labour in a general election for the first time in a century, tonight's Labour conference vote to be non committal on Brexit is that significant coupled with the hard left economics and social policy

kle4

I'm am however stunned people break out into songs about the leader. It's very odd to do so for very ordinary politicians.

Roger

Roger said:

HYUFD said:

Roger said:

Jeremy wins! Surprise surprise

So Remainers sticking with the LDs then

I hope so. I know know lots of Labour voters who are this time following the Yellow Brick Road. I am.

Yellow_Submarine

So progress at Labour Conference. The fact they are having to use inept tricks to avoid defeat on card votes show's Corbyn's spell is broken. Thhe direction of travel is clear. Europhiles will at some point recapture the Labour leadership. Recapture it in time ? I don't know. Recapture it before Corbtn's toxic project causes institutional meltdown. Quite unlikely. But now that Boris has made Brexit an indelibly rightwing project the Newtonian counter reaction will proceed. Corbyn can only hold the line so long.

As for the chaos at Labour Conference that's in the price. We've known Labour's institutional antisemiticism is going to collide with Equalities law for months. That collision will be career ending for dozens and incur 7 figure costs.

We fight on.

Toms

little Britain
little Labour
Big mistake

MarqueeMark

Drutt said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/DMiliband/status/1176197121395105793?s=20

Vintage champagne in CCHQ.

Classic Dom.

(With apologies to those who have heard this joke before, from me, really quite recently)

I really don't think Dom will be taking any credit for what Labour has done.

It is levels of damage beyond anything he could engineer.

OldKingCole

TBH Labour's position doesn't seem too silly to me.
AIUI Labour wins the next election. Labour Govt. sits down with the EU to agree a future relationship, allowing for N. Ireland, Gibraltar Free Movement (or not) etc.
Govt and EU agree a position. Labour goes back to the country; Our Deal or Remain.

As a Remainer that seems to me to be a sensible policy.

Floater

kle4 said:

I'm am however stunned people break out into songs about the leader. It's very odd to do so for very ordinary politicians.

its a cult

Tabman

Have we just seen the needle of the syringe being slipped in?

kinabalu

The right decision. The policy is a good one.

And contrary to much drivel spouted it is VERY easy for people - other than the ultra dense - to understand.

bigjohnowls

People saying I am voting LD instead of Lab results in a No Deal Jester win.

People voting Lab instead of LD results in PM Jezza and a Peoples Vote with Remain on the Ballot

Not Rocket Science. Tory Swinson = #BolloxtostoppingBrexit

Floater

OldKingCole said:

TBH Labour's position doesn't seem too silly to me.
AIUI Labour wins the next election. Labour Govt. sits down with the EU to agree a future relationship, allowing for N. Ireland, Gibraltar Free Movement (or not) etc.
Govt and EU agree a position. Labour goes back to the country; Our Deal or Remain.

As a Remainer that seems to me to be a sensible policy.

So explain why the EU would give them a good deal?

What possible incentive do they have.

Plus some of the top people in the cult are already saying they will campaign against it - campaign against their own deal.

If that isn't silly what the hell is?

Roger

An idea for the Lib Dems. A jolly song originating from the Wizard of OZ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DDOL7iY8kfo

CatMan

Floater said:

kle4 said:

I'm am however stunned people break out into songs about the leader. It's very odd to do so for very ordinary politicians.

its a cult

"Oh Borrrrrriiiisss Johnsssssooooonnn"

Floater

bigjohnowls said:

People saying I am voting LD instead of Lab results in a No Deal Jester win.

People voting Lab instead of LD results in PM Jezza and a Peoples Vote with Remain on the Ballot

Not Rocket Science. Tory Swinson = #BolloxtostoppingBrexit

People voting Labour enable property theft and the destruction of our economy

# feck that

nichomar

Just a simple view from being out with a particularly Tory voting segment of the electorate today about what has exercised their thinking

1 the government should have done something to support TC to at least get people home.

2 the allegations of Johnson in proprietary whilst not universally accepted has actually broken through

3 I’m afraid Greta protests too much and should have quit whilst she was in front.

The labour party conference isn’t even on the radar and there are a few people wondering what the hell the government is doing spending money on brexit adverts when it doesn’t know what’s happening

bigjohnowls

I see Jester says its a "moral hazard" to help TC

Was it a "moral hazard" to pay that blonde chick £126,000 of public money for a BJ for BJ?

DavidL

One thing is now crystal clear and that is that the gap between the PLP and the actual membership is not so much a chasm as a different country. Had this been an MP vote Corbyn would have lost 10-1.

SouthamObserver

OldKingCole said:

TBH Labour's position doesn't seem too silly to me.
AIUI Labour wins the next election. Labour Govt. sits down with the EU to agree a future relationship, allowing for N. Ireland, Gibraltar Free Movement (or not) etc.
Govt and EU agree a position. Labour goes back to the country; Our Deal or Remain.

As a Remainer that seems to me to be a sensible policy.

Labour's policy is silly because it has been designed solely to accommodate Jeremy Corbyn, who is trusted by neither Remain or Leave supporters. He is the problem. As ever!

nichomar

Floater said:

kle4 said:

I'm am however stunned people break out into songs about the leader. It's very odd to do so for very ordinary politicians.

its a cult

Do we stop around for the death throws though?

SirNorfolkPassmore

OldKingCole said:

TBH Labour's position doesn't seem too silly to me.
AIUI Labour wins the next election. Labour Govt. sits down with the EU to agree a future relationship, allowing for N. Ireland, Gibraltar Free Movement (or not) etc.
Govt and EU agree a position. Labour goes back to the country; Our Deal or Remain.

As a Remainer that seems to me to be a sensible policy.

"Vote for us and we'll have another vote at some future date, when we may or may not favour leaving the EU".

With a polarised electorate, it's crackers. Designed to appeal to everyone... actually appeals to (next to) nobody.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1176206845628878850

Yorkcity

OldKingCole said:

TBH Labour's position doesn't seem too silly to me.
AIUI Labour wins the next election. Labour Govt. sits down with the EU to agree a future relationship, allowing for N. Ireland, Gibraltar Free Movement (or not) etc.
Govt and EU agree a position. Labour goes back to the country; Our Deal or Remain.

As a Remainer that seems to me to be a sensible policy.

Same here.
The Lib Dem revoke is not democratic, and imo if implemented would cause civil unrest.

SouthamObserver

DavidL said:

One thing is now crystal clear and that is that the gap between the PLP and the actual membership is not so much a chasm as a different country. Had this been an MP vote Corbyn would have lost 10-1.

By denying a card vote, the leadership has ensured it is not possible to know how constituency delegates voted. There will be strong suspicions that many did not follow the mandates they were given by members.

HYUFD

nichomar said:

Just a simple view from being out with a particularly Tory voting segment of the electorate today about what has exercised their thinking

1 the government should have done something to support TC to at least get people home.

2 the allegations of Johnson in proprietary whilst not universally accepted has actually broken through

3 I’m afraid Greta protests too much and should have quit whilst she was in front.

The labour party conference isn’t even on the radar and there are a few people wondering what the hell the government is doing spending money on brexit adverts when it doesn’t know what’s happening

Yougov today has most voters backing the government's decision not to bail out Thomas Cook by 54% to 22% (and the Government is bringing travellers home) while opposing Labour's policy to abolish private schools by 50% to 22%
https://yougov.co.uk/opi/surveys/results#/survey/07579420-dde5-11e9-8b4a-578fdf782d3e

not_on_fire

Yorkcity said:

OldKingCole said:

TBH Labour's position doesn't seem too silly to me.
AIUI Labour wins the next election. Labour Govt. sits down with the EU to agree a future relationship, allowing for N. Ireland, Gibraltar Free Movement (or not) etc.
Govt and EU agree a position. Labour goes back to the country; Our Deal or Remain.

As a Remainer that seems to me to be a sensible policy.

Same here.
The Lib Dem revoke is not democratic, and imo if implemented would cause civil unrest.

Why? They would have democratically won a GE having been fully open about their intentions.

bigjohnowls

Yellow_Submarine said:

So progress at Labour Conference. The fact they are having to use inept tricks to avoid defeat on card votes show's Corbyn's spell is broken. Thhe direction of travel is clear. Europhiles will at some point recapture the Labour leadership. Recapture it in time ? I don't know. Recapture it before Corbtn's toxic project causes institutional meltdown. Quite unlikely. But now that Boris has made Brexit an indelibly rightwing project the Newtonian counter reaction will proceed. Corbyn can only hold the line so long.

As for the chaos at Labour Conference that's in the price. We've known Labour's institutional antisemiticism is going to collide with Equalities law for months. That collision will be career ending for dozens and incur 7 figure costs.

We fight on.

You gone off a Peoples Vote?

PM Corbyn means a Peoples Vote PM Jester means No Deal Brexit

A vote for Tory Swinson makes the latter most likely outcome

Its not Rocket Science Tory Swinson = #BolloxtostoppingBrexit

Roger

Voters from 1997 onwards have been pretty smart at voting against governments they didn't like. This time I think it'll be Johnson's. How they achieve it is a mystery but they usually find a way

SirNorfolkPassmore

kinabalu said:

The right decision. The policy is a good one.

And contrary to much drivel spouted it is VERY easy for people - other than the ultra dense - to understand.

They understand it, but it doesn't answer the question everyone is asking, which is "are you in favour of Remaining in or Leaving the EU?"

bigjohnowls

not_on_fire said:

Yorkcity said:

OldKingCole said:

TBH Labour's position doesn't seem too silly to me.
AIUI Labour wins the next election. Labour Govt. sits down with the EU to agree a future relationship, allowing for N. Ireland, Gibraltar Free Movement (or not) etc.
Govt and EU agree a position. Labour goes back to the country; Our Deal or Remain.

As a Remainer that seems to me to be a sensible policy.

Same here.
The Lib Dem revoke is not democratic, and imo if implemented would cause civil unrest.

Why? They would have democratically won a GE having been fully open about their intentions.

Dreamland

A vote for Tory Swinson is a vote for Jesters No Deal

Roger

Roger said:

An idea for the Lib Dems. A jolly song originating from the Wizard of OZ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DDOL7iY8kfo

Colours always go down well as a theme. Think football..

Yellow_Submarine

I'm pleased to see the snap YouGov numbers heavily backing the Government's decision not to bail out Thomas Cook. Given it was taken in the heat of the moment with bogus cost/benefit analyses floating about it suggests those figures will improve after the shock wears off. I suspect this is a slow burner with the initial chaos being much less than hyped ( even the Guardian Live Blog is struggling to find much genuine hardship ) and longer term the loss of the 500 odd shop network will be the bigger story domestically.

matt

kle4 said:

I'm am however stunned people break out into songs about the leader. It's very odd to do so for very ordinary politicians.

They’re not ordinary people. Religion is a strange old beast.

bigjohnowls

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

OldKingCole said:

TBH Labour's position doesn't seem too silly to me.
AIUI Labour wins the next election. Labour Govt. sits down with the EU to agree a future relationship, allowing for N. Ireland, Gibraltar Free Movement (or not) etc.
Govt and EU agree a position. Labour goes back to the country; Our Deal or Remain.

As a Remainer that seems to me to be a sensible policy.

"Vote for us and we'll have another vote at some future date, when we may or may not favour leaving the EU".

With a polarised electorate, it's crackers. Designed to appeal to everyone... actually appeals to (next to) nobody.

Not at some future date

Within 6 months

TheJezziah

Thanks to the votes today Labour stand a chance at the next election also but at a lesser level delighted to see Watsons boys were defeated today.

Where does this leave the line about evil Corbyn going against the members and being anti democratic?

Such a shame....

Barnesian

HYUFD said:

Can now see a GE result something like Tories 30 to 35%, LDs 23%, Labour 22% after this vote

Using the latest YOuGOv figures for tactical voting by Lab and LDs, my tactical voting model, on your figures, gives:

Tories/Lab/LD

30/22/23 .... 293/225/62
35/22/23 .... 321/205/55

matt

Roger said:

Voters from 1997 onwards have been pretty smart at voting against governments they didn't like. This time I think it'll be Johnson's. How they achieve it is a mystery but they usually find a way

There was generally a reasonably positive alternative. Perhaps 1983, which you’ve avoided, is instructive.

Scott_P

TheJezziah said:

Where does this leave the line about evil Corbyn going against the members and being anti democratic?

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1176208844424458246

bigjohnowls

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

kinabalu said:

The right decision. The policy is a good one.

And contrary to much drivel spouted it is VERY easy for people - other than the ultra dense - to understand.

They understand it, but it doesn't answer the question everyone is asking, which is "are you in favour of Remaining in or Leaving the EU?"

Depends on the Deal and anyway the People get to decide.

DavidL

So Boris comes back to the Commons with a deal that looks incredibly like May's. What does Labour do after this? Deal or no deal?

nichomar

Interesting view
caroline cherry 🔶#ShortCummings#FBPE Retweeted

Nick Boles MP
@NickBoles
I have 5 A levels and degrees from Oxford and Harvard. Angela Rayner is a far better politician than I will ever be. And a far more admirable human being than the mean spirited snobs who sneer at her.

TheJezziah

Scott_P said:

TheJezziah said:

Where does this leave the line about evil Corbyn going against the members and being anti democratic?

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1176208844424458246

Ahh, a conspiracy, that is how the evil Corbyn pulled it off... damn he is one dastardly Stalinist.

Sour grapes by any chance?

ydoethur

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

TheJezziah said:

nico67 said:

All party conferences end up being echo chambers to a certain extent however the current Labour one is plumbing new depths .

The abolishing private schools is peak echo chamber , this policy is a gift to both the Tories and Lib Dems .

People like choices , parents even if they don’t currently have the money to send their children to private school might one day dream they might be able to do that.

This policy falls apart because it’s economically illiterate, those children currently in private schools will now have to be accommodated in the state sector . How many people will lose their jobs who currently work in private schools .

The policy smacks of a government telling parents we know better and restricting choice.

On top of this it smacks of hypocrisy , some Labour MPs have sent their children to private schools or they themselves went through that .

This policy is a vote loser and I can’t see anyway that this helps Labour in a GE.

I can see removing charitable status, or charging VAT on school fees or one of a number of other things happening. I don't think abolishing private schools is going to be in the next manifesto.

The Labour conference have just voted abolishing private schools to be official Labour Party policy

While I rarely agree with @charles his view that state schools should be good enough for people to not need private ones. Have always believed that but whilst people with influence don’t experience the problems of the the state system little will change.

Even if private schools were abolished people with influence would send their children to a grammar school or an outstanding comprehensive, academy or free school anyway not a requires improvement or inadequate bog standard comprehensive with coaching, church attendance or moving to the right catchment area being used instead of school fees

How do you 'send' your child to a grammar school? They have to pass an examination.

Well, if Corbyn could manage it they're clearly not terribly hard.

Chris

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

Can now see a GE result something like Tories 30 to 35%, LDs 23%, Labour 22% after this vote

Using the latest YOuGOv figures for tactical voting by Lab and LDs, my tactical voting model, on your figures, gives:

Tories/Lab/LD

30/22/23 .... 293/225/62
35/22/23 .... 321/205/55

Seems reasonable enough, provided nothing at all controversial happens between now and the election. I can't think of anything that could, but who knows? (I do seem to remember reading something about the possibility of our leaving the European Union, but maybe I was imagining it.)

Barnesian

bigjohnowls said:

People saying I am voting LD instead of Lab results in a No Deal Jester win.

People voting Lab instead of LD results in PM Jezza and a Peoples Vote with Remain on the Ballot

Not Rocket Science. Tory Swinson = #BolloxtostoppingBrexit

Some LDs will vote Labour and some Labour will vote LD, depending on the constituency, to stop the Tories. The Greens will do the same.

kle4

While the actual Labour policy is not as destructive as it may seem, the party will probably still be thankful there will be a much bigger story dominating for the rest of the week.

HYUFD

nichomar said:

Interesting view
caroline cherry 🔶#ShortCummings#FBPE Retweeted

Nick Boles MP
@NickBoles
I have 5 A levels and degrees from Oxford and Harvard. Angela Rayner is a far better politician than I will ever be. And a far more admirable human being than the mean spirited snobs who sneer at her.

Humble brag if ever there was one

nichomar

ydoethur said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

TheJezziah said:

nico67 said:

All party conferences end up being echo chambers to a certain extent however the current Labour one is plumbing new depths .

The abolishing private schools is peak echo chamber , this policy is a gift to both the Tories and Lib Dems .

People like choices , parents even if they don’t currently have the money to send their children to private school might one day dream they might be able to do that.

This policy falls apart because it’s economically illiterate, those children currently in private schools will now have to be accommodated in the state sector . How many people will lose their jobs who currently work in private schools .

The policy smacks of a government telling parents we know better and restricting choice.

On top of this it smacks of hypocrisy , some Labour MPs have sent their children to private schools or they themselves went through that .

This policy is a vote loser and I can’t see anyway that this helps Labour in a GE.

I can see removing charitable status, or charging VAT on school fees or one of a number of other things happening. I don't think abolishing private schools is going to be in the next manifesto.

The Labour conference have just voted abolishing private schools to be official Labour Party policy

While I rarely agree with @charles his view that state schools should be good enough for people to not need private ones. Have always believed that but whilst people with influence don’t experience the problems of the the state system little will change.

Even if private schools were abolished people with influence would send their children to a grammar school or an outstanding comprehensive, academy or free school anyway not a requires improvement or inadequate bog standard comprehensive with coaching, church attendance or moving to the right catchment area being used instead of school fees

How do you 'send' your child to a grammar school? They have to pass an examination.

Well, if Corbyn could manage it they're clearly not terribly hard.

Money money money I believe

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/rafaelbehr/status/1176210641448767488

HYUFD

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

Can now see a GE result something like Tories 30 to 35%, LDs 23%, Labour 22% after this vote

Using the latest YOuGOv figures for tactical voting by Lab and LDs, my tactical voting model, on your figures, gives:

Tories/Lab/LD

30/22/23 .... 293/225/62
35/22/23 .... 321/205/55

Tories would be on 346 seats in the latter scenario on UNS, the highest number of Tory MPs won by a Tory leader since Thatcher in 1987 and after tonight's vote I suspect you can count the LD tactical votes for Corbyn Labour on one hand

kle4

I will say the video of the vote on the Brexit motion does look awfully awkward for the person chairing it. Cannot imagine many will see that though.

Yorkcity

not_on_fire said:

Yorkcity said:

OldKingCole said:

TBH Labour's position doesn't seem too silly to me.
AIUI Labour wins the next election. Labour Govt. sits down with the EU to agree a future relationship, allowing for N. Ireland, Gibraltar Free Movement (or not) etc.
Govt and EU agree a position. Labour goes back to the country; Our Deal or Remain.

As a Remainer that seems to me to be a sensible policy.

Same here.
The Lib Dem revoke is not democratic, and imo if implemented would cause civil unrest.

Why? They would have democratically won a GE having been fully open about their intentions.

Because GE , would not be totally about Brexit.
Where a referendum would be.

rottenborough

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/rafaelbehr/status/1176210641448767488

Keep existing welfare standards for as little time as they can get away with is what he means. Anyone who trusts the maniacs who wake up every morning going 'red tape, red tape, everywhere red tape' into their mirrors is a fool.

Chris

Yellow_Submarine said:

I'm pleased to see the snap YouGov numbers heavily backing the Government's decision not to bail out Thomas Cook. Given it was taken in the heat of the moment with bogus cost/benefit analyses floating about it suggests those figures will improve after the shock wears off. I suspect this is a slow burner with the initial chaos being much less than hyped ( even the Guardian Live Blog is struggling to find much genuine hardship ) and longer term the loss of the 500 odd shop network will be the bigger story domestically.

Well, the Lyk Card website is still redirecting to a statement about Thomas Cook having ceased trading, so I hope the FSCS is applicable.

bigjohnowls

There’ll either be a hard right Tory government offering a hard Brexit, or an anti-austerity Labour government offering a referendum with Remain on the ballot, in which a large majority of Labour will campaign for Remain.

Everything else is noise.

rottenborough

nichomar said:

ydoethur said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

TheJezziah said:

nico67 said:

All party conferences end up being echo chambers to a certain extent however the current Labour one is plumbing new depths .

The abolishing private schools is peak echo chamber , this policy is a gift to both the Tories and Lib Dems .

People like choices , parents even if they don’t currently have the money to send their children to private school might one day dream they might be able to do that.

This policy falls apart because it’s economically illiterate, those children currently in private schools will now have to be accommodated in the state sector . How many people will lose their jobs who currently work in private schools .

The policy smacks of a government telling parents we know better and restricting choice.

On top of this it smacks of hypocrisy , some Labour MPs have sent their children to private schools or they themselves went through that .

This policy is a vote loser and I can’t see anyway that this helps Labour in a GE.

I can see removing charitable status, or charging VAT on school fees or one of a number of other things happening. I don't think abolishing private schools is going to be in the next manifesto.

The Labour conference have just voted abolishing private schools to be official Labour Party policy

While I rarely agree with @charles his view that state schools should be good enough for people to not need private ones. Have always believed that but whilst people with influence don’t experience the problems of the the state system little will change.

Even if private schools were abolished people with influence would send their children to a grammar school or an outstanding comprehensive, academy or free school anyway not a requires improvement or inadequate bog standard comprehensive with coaching, church attendance or moving to the right catchment area being used instead of school fees

How do you 'send' your child to a grammar school? They have to pass an examination.

Well, if Corbyn could manage it they're clearly not terribly hard.

Money money money I believe

The really key point of this private schools policy is that it is massive and I say massive trojan horse for the state taking away private property whenever Momentum decide.

They are proposing to take away these schools' endowments, playing fields, buildings etc etc and redistribute.

Today, private schools. Tomorrow a house with a spare bedroom.

kle4

It's not wrong, in the longer term.
https://twitter.com/nedsimons/status/1176192098548244480

MarqueeMark

bigjohnowls said:

There’ll either be a hard right Tory government offering a hard Brexit, or an anti-austerity Labour government offering a referendum with Remain on the ballot, in which a large majority of Labour will campaign for Remain.

Everything else is noise.

That one's a keeper.....

not_on_fire

Lol

https://twitter.com/mattchorley/status/1176026746493308928?s=21

HYUFD

bigjohnowls said:

There’ll either be a hard right Tory government offering a hard Brexit, or an anti-austerity Labour government offering a referendum with Remain on the ballot, in which a large majority of Labour will campaign for Remain.

Everything else is noise.

The LDs were ahead of Labour with Yougov last week even before today's Labour conference shambles

Chris

bigjohnowls said:

There’ll either be a hard right Tory government offering a hard Brexit, or an anti-austerity Labour government offering a referendum with Remain on the ballot, in which a large majority of Labour will campaign for Remain.

Everything else is noise.

Oi! Prime Minister Swinson could be revoking. (unicorn)

HYUFD

nichomar said:

Interesting view
caroline cherry 🔶#ShortCummings#FBPE Retweeted

Nick Boles MP
@NickBoles
I have 5 A levels and degrees from Oxford and Harvard. Angela Rayner is a far better politician than I will ever be. And a far more admirable human being than the mean spirited snobs who sneer at her.

The context

https://twitter.com/allisonpearson/status/1176043087103238149?s=20

rottenborough

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1176211407957876737

OldKingCole

ydoethur said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

TheJezziah said:

nico67 said:

All party conferences end up being echo chambers to a certain extent however the current Labour one is plumbing new depths .

The abolishing private schools is peak echo chamber , this policy is a gift to both the Tories and Lib Dems .

People like choices , parents even if they don’t currently have the money to send their children to private school might one day dream they might be able to do that.

This policy falls apart because it’s economically illiterate, those children currently in private schools will now have to be accommodated in the state sector . How many people will lose their jobs who currently work in private schools .

The policy smacks of a government telling parents we know better and restricting choice.

On top of this it smacks of hypocrisy , some Labour MPs have sent their children to private schools or they themselves went through that .

This policy is a vote loser and I can’t see anyway that this helps Labour in a GE.

I can see removing charitable status, or charging VAT on school fees or one of a number of other things happening. I don't think abolishing private schools is going to be in the next manifesto.

The Labour conference have just voted abolishing private schools to be official Labour Party policy

While I rarely agree with @charles his view that state schools should be good enough for people to not need private ones. Have always believed that but whilst people with influence don’t experience the problems of the the state system little will change.

Even if private schools were abolished people with influence would send their children to a grammar school or an outstanding comprehensive, academy or free school anyway not a requires improvement or inadequate bog standard comprehensive with coaching, church attendance or moving to the right catchment area being used instead of school fees

How do you 'send' your child to a grammar school? They have to pass an examination.

Well, if Corbyn could manage it they're clearly not terribly hard.

Are you the product of a private school or comprehensive then? I can assure you that in the late 40's the exam seemed hard, to both my self and wife, and our siblings.
It also seemed hard, I was told, to the grandchildren who live in Kent and therefore had the pleasure of a) studying for it and b) taking it.

Barnesian

HYUFD said:

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

Can now see a GE result something like Tories 30 to 35%, LDs 23%, Labour 22% after this vote

Using the latest YOuGOv figures for tactical voting by Lab and LDs, my tactical voting model, on your figures, gives:

Tories/Lab/LD

30/22/23 .... 293/225/62
35/22/23 .... 321/205/55

Tories would be on 346 seats in the latter scenario on UNS, the highest number of Tory MPs won by a Tory leader since Thatcher in 1987 and after tonight's vote I suspect you can count the LD tactical votes for Corbyn Labour on one hand

Most LDs are anti-Brexit and therefore anti-Tory and many will vote tactically for Lab, The YouGov poll indicates 35% will (and 65% won't). That's what I've used.

The Labour party position on Brexit hasn't changed, It is still equivocal but it does include a second referendum. I don't think it will change LibDem tactical voting behaviour much, but I think it will cause some more Labour supporters to defect to the LibDems.

Tabman

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

Can now see a GE result something like Tories 30 to 35%, LDs 23%, Labour 22% after this vote

Using the latest YOuGOv figures for tactical voting by Lab and LDs, my tactical voting model, on your figures, gives:

Tories/Lab/LD

30/22/23 .... 293/225/62
35/22/23 .... 321/205/55

Tories would be on 346 seats in the latter scenario on UNS, the highest number of Tory MPs won by a Tory leader since Thatcher in 1987 and after tonight's vote I suspect you can count the LD tactical votes for Corbyn Labour on one hand

Most LDs are anti-Brexit and therefore anti-Tory and many will vote tactically for Lab, The YouGov poll indicates 35% will (and 65% won't). That's what I've used.

The Labour party position on Brexit hasn't changed, It is still equivocal but it does include a second referendum. I don't think it will change LibDem tactical voting behaviour much, but I think it will cause some more Labour supporters to defect to the LibDems.

Too simplistic. We don't mind some Tories. Just not the current lot

HYUFD

rottenborough said:

nichomar said:

ydoethur said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

TheJezziah said:

nico67 said:

All party conferences end up being echo chambers to a certain extent however the current Labour one is plumbing new depths .

The abolishing private schools is peak echo chamber , this policy is a gift to both the Tories and Lib Dems .

People like choices , parents even if they don’t currently have the money to send their children to private school might one day dream they might be able to do that.

This policy falls apart because it’s economically illiterate, those children currently in private schools will now have to be accommodated in the state sector . How many people will lose their jobs who currently work in private schools .

The policy smacks of a government telling parents we know better and restricting choice.

On top of this it smacks of hypocrisy , some Labour MPs have sent their children to private schools or they themselves went through that .

This policy is a vote loser and I can’t see anyway that this helps Labour in a GE.

I can see removing charitable status, or charging VAT on school fees or one of a number of other things happening. I don't think abolishing private schools is going to be in the next manifesto.

The Labour conference have just voted abolishing private schools to be official Labour Party policy

While I rarely agree with @charles his view that state schools should be good enough for people to not need private ones. Have always believed that but whilst people with influence don’t experience the problems of the the state system little will change.

Even if private schools were abolished people with influence would send their children to a grammar school or an outstanding sed instead of school fees

How do you 'send' your child to a grammar school? They have to pass an examination.

Well, if Corbyn could manage it they're clearly not terribly hard.

Money money money I believe

The really key point of this private schools policy is that it is massive and I say massive trojan horse for the state taking away private property whenever Momentum decide.

They are proposing to take away these schools' endowments, playing fields, buildings etc etc and redistribute.

Today, private schools. Tomorrow a house with a spare bedroom.

Under a Corbyn majority Government we would all live in state owned housing, work for nationalised companies and our children would attend bog standard comprehensives, choice and private property would be virtually non existent

bigjohnowls

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1176211407957876737

and also out of the shadow cabinet.

Yorkcity

HYUFD said:

bigjohnowls said:

There’ll either be a hard right Tory government offering a hard Brexit, or an anti-austerity Labour government offering a referendum with Remain on the ballot, in which a large majority of Labour will campaign for Remain.

Everything else is noise.

The LDs were ahead of Labour with Yougov last week even before today's Labour conference shambles

Yes but if we leave on 311019 as you state Boris Johnson will do.
The Lib dem policy would be then re-join ?
Do you think that would be popular ?
My guess is most people would want to move on to domestic issues.

nichomar

HYUFD said:

nichomar said:

Interesting view
caroline cherry 🔶#ShortCummings#FBPE Retweeted

Nick Boles MP
@NickBoles
I have 5 A levels and degrees from Oxford and Harvard. Angela Rayner is a far better politician than I will ever be. And a far more admirable human being than the mean spirited snobs who sneer at her.

The context

https://twitter.com/allisonpearson/status/1176043087103238149?s=20

I’m sorry but is pathetic whilst I have limited sympathy for labour policy you denigrate a women who, against all odds, has achieved something in her life. There are many reasons why people get good grades and many reasons why some don’t but it isn’t the be and end all measurement of ones worth.

HYUFD

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1176211407957876737

No they would be the next to defect to the LDs

rottenborough

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

nichomar said:

Interesting view
caroline cherry 🔶#ShortCummings#FBPE Retweeted

Nick Boles MP
@NickBoles
I have 5 A levels and degrees from Oxford and Harvard. Angela Rayner is a far better politician than I will ever be. And a far more admirable human being than the mean spirited snobs who sneer at her.

The context

https://twitter.com/allisonpearson/status/1176043087103238149?s=20

I’m sorry but is pathetic whilst I have limited sympathy for labour policy you denigrate a women who, against all odds, has achieved something in her life. There are many reasons why people get good grades and many reasons why some don’t but it isn’t the be and end all measurement of ones worth.

Wait until Pearson finds out that Rayner has a very good chance of being next leader.

HYUFD

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

nichomar said:

Interesting view
caroline cherry 🔶#ShortCummings#FBPE Retweeted

Nick Boles MP
@NickBoles
I have 5 A levels and degrees from Oxford and Harvard. Angela Rayner is a far better politician than I will ever be. And a far more admirable human being than the mean spirited snobs who sneer at her.

The context

https://twitter.com/allisonpearson/status/1176043087103238149?s=20

I’m sorry but is pathetic whilst I have limited sympathy for labour policy you denigrate a women who, against all odds, has achieved something in her life. There are many reasons why people get good grades and many reasons why some don’t but it isn’t the be and end all measurement of ones worth.

I said the context, a neutral term identifying what Boles was replying to

HYUFD

Yorkcity said:

HYUFD said:

bigjohnowls said:

There’ll either be a hard right Tory government offering a hard Brexit, or an anti-austerity Labour government offering a referendum with Remain on the ballot, in which a large majority of Labour will campaign for Remain.

Everything else is noise.

The LDs were ahead of Labour with Yougov last week even before today's Labour conference shambles

Yes but if we leave on 311019 as you state Boris Johnson will do.
The Lib dem policy would be then re-join ?
Do you think that would be popular ?
My guess is most people would want to move on to domestic issues.

Like 32 hour weeks and abolishing private schools you mean?

rottenborough

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

nichomar said:

ydoethur said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

TheJezziah said:

nico67 said:

All party conferences end up being echo chambers to a certain extent however the current Labour one is plumbing new depths .

The abolishing private schools is peak echo chamber , this policy is a gift to both the Tories and Lib Dems .

People like choices , parents even if they don’t currently have the money to send their children to private school might one day dream they might be able to do that.

This policy falls apart because it’s economically illiterate, those children currently in private schools will now have to be accommodated in the state sector . How many people will lose their jobs who currently work in private schools .

The policy smacks of a government telling parents we know better and restricting choice.

On top of this it smacks of hypocrisy , some Labour MPs have sent their children to private schools or they themselves went through that .

This policy is a vote loser and I can’t see anyway that this helps Labour in a GE.

I can see removing charitable status, or charging VAT on school fees or one of a number of other things happening. I don't think abolishing private schools is going to be in the next manifesto.

The Labour conference have just voted abolishing private schools to be official Labour Party policy

snip.

Even if private schools were abolished people with influence would send their children to a grammar school or an outstanding sed instead of school fees

How do you 'send' your child to a grammar school? They have to pass an examination.

Well, if Corbyn could manage it they're clearly not terribly hard.

Money money money I believe

The really key point of this private schools policy is that it is massive and I say massive trojan horse for the state taking away private property whenever Momentum decide.

They are proposing to take away these schools' endowments, playing fields, buildings etc etc and redistribute.

Today, private schools. Tomorrow a house with a spare bedroom.

Under a Corbyn majority Government we would all live in state owned housing, work for nationalised companies and our children would attend bog standard comprehensives, choice and private property would be virtually non existent

Certainly looks that way.

Those banker analysts quoted in the Guardian the other day who say the City is coming around to the idea of Corbyn need to take a look at the policies coming out of this shambles of a conference.

another_richard

rottenborough said:

nichomar said:

ydoethur said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

TheJezziah said:

nico67 said:

All party conferences end up being echo chambers to a certain extent however the current Labour one is plumbing new depths .

The abolishing private schools is peak echo chamber , this policy is a gift to both the Tories and Lib Dems .

People like choices , parents even if they don’t currently have the money to send their children to private school might one day dream they might be able to do that.

This policy falls apart because it’s economically illiterate, those children currently in private schools will now have to be accommodated in the state sector . How many people will lose their jobs who currently work in private schools .

The policy smacks of a government telling parents we know better and restricting choice.

On top of this it smacks of hypocrisy , some Labour MPs have sent their children to private schools or they themselves went through that .

This policy is a vote loser and I can’t see anyway that this helps Labour in a GE.

I can see removing charitable status, or charging VAT on school fees or one of a number of other things happening. I don't think abolishing private schools is going to be in the next manifesto.

The Labour conference have just voted abolishing private schools to be official Labour Party policy

While I rarely agree with @charles his view that state schools should be good enough for people to not need private ones. Have always believed that but whilst people with influence don’t experience the problems of the the state system little will change.

Even if private schools were abolished people with influence would send their children to a grammar school or an outstanding sed instead of school fees

How do you 'send' your child to a grammar school? They have to pass an examination.

Well, if Corbyn could manage it they're clearly not terribly hard.

Money money money I believe

The really key point of this private schools policy is that it is massive and I say massive trojan horse for the state taking away private property whenever Momentum decide.

They are proposing to take away these schools' endowments, playing fields, buildings etc etc and redistribute.

Today, private schools. Tomorrow a house with a spare bedroom.

Garden tax.

HYUFD

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

Can now see a GE result something like Tories 30 to 35%, LDs 23%, Labour 22% after this vote

Using the latest YOuGOv figures for tactical voting by Lab and LDs, my tactical voting model, on your figures, gives:

Tories/Lab/LD

30/22/23 .... 293/225/62
35/22/23 .... 321/205/55

Tories would be on 346 seats in the latter scenario on UNS, the highest number of Tory MPs won by a Tory leader since Thatcher in 1987 and after tonight's vote I suspect you can count the LD tactical votes for Corbyn Labour on one hand

Most LDs are anti-Brexit and therefore anti-Tory and many will vote tactically for Lab, The YouGov poll indicates 35% will (and 65% won't). That's what I've used.

The Labour party position on Brexit hasn't changed, It is still equivocal but it does include a second referendum. I don't think it will change LibDem tactical voting behaviour much, but I think it will cause some more Labour supporters to defect to the LibDems.

LD tactical votes were already there in 2017 they will be down on then and my figures were on UNS from 2017

Barnesian

Tabman said:

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

Can now see a GE result something like Tories 30 to 35%, LDs 23%, Labour 22% after this vote

Using the latest YOuGOv figures for tactical voting by Lab and LDs, my tactical voting model, on your figures, gives:

Tories/Lab/LD

30/22/23 .... 293/225/62
35/22/23 .... 321/205/55

Tories would be on 346 seats in the latter scenario on UNS, the highest number of Tory MPs won by a Tory leader since Thatcher in 1987 and after tonight's vote I suspect you can count the LD tactical votes for Corbyn Labour on one hand

Most LDs are anti-Brexit and therefore anti-Tory and many will vote tactically for Lab, The YouGov poll indicates 35% will (and 65% won't). That's what I've used.

The Labour party position on Brexit hasn't changed, It is still equivocal but it does include a second referendum. I don't think it will change LibDem tactical voting behaviour much, but I think it will cause some more Labour supporters to defect to the LibDems.

Too simplistic. We don't mind some Tories. Just not the current lot

That's what I mean. It's the current lot that will be fighting the next GE.

Yorkcity

kle4 said:

While the actual Labour policy is not as destructive as it may seem, the party will probably still be thankful there will be a much bigger story dominating for the rest of the week.

Yes , Thomas Cook , was the main news today.
Boris Johnson also got a hearing on his use of tax payers money to his past girl friend.
With the supreme court hearing to come .

rottenborough

not_on_fire said:

Lol

https://twitter.com/mattchorley/status/1176026746493308928?s=21

The other 77% will be reeducated.

JackW

Jezza the gift that keeps on giving to the LibDems.

The yellow peril dead in the water last year and Corbyn has kindly insisted on breathing life into the corpse and now the monster is on the threshold on consuming the composite remnants of the Labour party.

rottenborough

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1176215677235019776

nichomar

HYUFD said:

nichomar said:

HYUFD said:

nichomar said:

Interesting view
caroline cherry 🔶#ShortCummings#FBPE Retweeted

Nick Boles MP
@NickBoles
I have 5 A levels and degrees from Oxford and Harvard. Angela Rayner is a far better politician than I will ever be. And a far more admirable human being than the mean spirited snobs who sneer at her.

The context

https://twitter.com/allisonpearson/status/1176043087103238149?s=20

I’m sorry but is pathetic whilst I have limited sympathy for labour policy you denigrate a women who, against all odds, has achieved something in her life. There are many reasons why people get good grades and many reasons why some don’t but it isn’t the be and end all measurement of ones worth.

I said the context, a neutral term identifying what Boles was replying to

Ok but by implication you appeared to be supporting that view that her background was unsuitable for her job.

Casino_Royale

DavidL said:

So Boris comes back to the Commons with a deal that looks incredibly like May's. What does Labour do after this? Deal or no deal?

Do Labour decide to share?

Or to shaft?

rottenborough

JackW said:

Jezza the gift that keeps on giving to the LibDems.

The yellow peril dead in the water last year and Corbyn has kindly insisted on breathing life into the corpse and now the monster is on the threshold on consuming the composite remnants of the Labour party.

Tush, tush. Seamus is a tactical genius don't you know!

Scrapheap_as_was

JackW said:

Jezza the gift that keeps on giving to the LibDems.

The yellow peril dead in the water last year and Corbyn has kindly insisted on breathing life into the corpse and now the monster is on the threshold on consuming the composite remnants of the Labour party.

The cult though he was the messiah and he's brought them back from the dead....

Drutt

Chris said:

Yellow_Submarine said:

I'm pleased to see the snap YouGov numbers heavily backing the Government's decision not to bail out Thomas Cook. Given it was taken in the heat of the moment with bogus cost/benefit analyses floating about it suggests those figures will improve after the shock wears off. I suspect this is a slow burner with the initial chaos being much less than hyped ( even the Guardian Live Blog is struggling to find much genuine hardship ) and longer term the loss of the 500 odd shop network will be the bigger story domestically.

Well, the Lyk Card website is still redirecting to a statement about Thomas Cook having ceased trading, so I hope the FSCS is applicable.

I think the Lyk money is held by MasterCard so it's not affected by TC's liquidation.

Benpointer

Yorkcity said:

not_on_fire said:

Yorkcity said:

OldKingCole said:

TBH Labour's position doesn't seem too silly to me.
AIUI Labour wins the next election. Labour Govt. sits down with the EU to agree a future relationship, allowing for N. Ireland, Gibraltar Free Movement (or not) etc.
Govt and EU agree a position. Labour goes back to the country; Our Deal or Remain.

As a Remainer that seems to me to be a sensible policy.

Same here.
The Lib Dem revoke is not democratic, and imo if implemented would cause civil unrest.

Why? They would have democratically won a GE having been fully open about their intentions.

Because GE , would not be totally about Brexit.
Where a referendum would be.

Yet Leavers don't want to have a referendum to see if the public support the deal.

ozymandias

Yorkcity said:

kle4 said:

While the actual Labour policy is not as destructive as it may seem, the party will probably still be thankful there will be a much bigger story dominating for the rest of the week.

Yes , Thomas Cook , was the main news today.
Boris Johnson also got a hearing on his use of tax payers money to his past girl friend.
With the supreme court hearing to come .

So the best chance Labour have is that people don't notice what they're doing.One wonders why they bother at all.

another_richard

So if we are to do 4 days work for 5 days pay doesn't that mean that for the NHS:

There will need to be a 25% increase in employees

or

NHS employees will need to increase their work rate by 25%

or

NHS services will need to be reduced by 20%

or

some combination of the above.

And likewise for the rest of the public sector.

Barnesian

HYUFD said:

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

Can now see a GE result something like Tories 30 to 35%, LDs 23%, Labour 22% after this vote

Using the latest YOuGOv figures for tactical voting by Lab and LDs, my tactical voting model, on your figures, gives:

Tories/Lab/LD

30/22/23 .... 293/225/62
35/22/23 .... 321/205/55

Tories would be on 346 seats in the latter scenario on UNS, the highest number of Tory MPs won by a Tory leader since Thatcher in 1987 and after tonight's vote I suspect you can count the LD tactical votes for Corbyn Labour on one hand

Most LDs are anti-Brexit and therefore anti-Tory and many will vote tactically for Lab, The YouGov poll indicates 35% will (and 65% won't). That's what I've used.

The Labour party position on Brexit hasn't changed, It is still equivocal but it does include a second referendum. I don't think it will change LibDem tactical voting behaviour much, but I think it will cause some more Labour supporters to defect to the LibDems.

LD tactical votes were already there in 2017 they will be down on then and my figures were on UNS from 2017

It was a much lower LD base in 2017. In your scenario we are looking at a base of 23% LDs considering whether to tactically vote, not the 7% LDs of 2017.