politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s leadership machinations could be a pointer that an ea

Charles said:

surbiton19 said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Recent machinations are certainly consistent with Jeremy Corbyn standing down in the not too distant future. @Charles mentioned doubts about Corbyn's health and it has long been rumoured that he is not enjoying leading the party. His past service reinforces the view that Corbyn is not personally ambitious.

Or it could just be a clumsy overreach by Lansman.

But three TU reps voted with Lansman. TUs don't vote accidentally. Plus all Corbyn acolytes. Maybe Corbyn left the room because he realized 2/3rd majority was not possible. It was NOT a ruthless Leftist coup. The Hard Left would have been ashamed. They reckon Momentum are a bunch of amateurs.

Although the idiot moderates have fallen for the pretence that a “review” of the role will not lead to abolition

Gardenwalker said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Given the Palace found time to tell the world Her Majesty's displeasure about some fluff will the Palace comment on this?

https://twitter.com/RosamundUrwin/status/1175478557293895683

Have we worked out where Jeffrey Epstein got his money yet?

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

New YouGov poll

Con 30 (-2)

Lab 23 (+2)

LD 22 (-1)

Electoral Calculus has the Tories 7 short of a majority with YouGov.

Conservatives 319, Labour 210, Liberal Democrats 57

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=30&LAB=23&LIB=22&Brexit=16&Green=4&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base

Yellow_Submarine said:

Sky say Thomas Cook are meeting creditors at a City law firm at 9 am tomorrow for a final attempt at saving the company. The briefing seems to be they'll fold by the early hours of Monday at the latest if no deal is done.

If they do go it's the sort of story that will receive absurd quantities of coverage out of all proportion to either its macroeconomic or human signifigance. That said the Government handled the collapse of Monarch very well with Chris Grayling in charge. While this is of a larger scale by about 50% it's not as if the rescue effort is unprecedented.

At least it will briefly change the national conversation from Brexit.

MarqueeMark said:

dyedwoolie said:

Labour will at least be able to count on Eddie izzard and that Greek bloke. And Picard.

They lost PIcard.

https://news.sky.com/story/sir-patrick-stewart-breaks-with-labour-after-70-years-over-jeremy-corbyns-brexit-stance-11474870

kle4 said:

MarqueeMark said:

dyedwoolie said:

Labour will at least be able to count on Eddie izzard and that Greek bloke. And Picard.

They lost PIcard.

https://news.sky.com/story/sir-patrick-stewart-breaks-with-labour-after-70-years-over-jeremy-corbyns-brexit-stance-11474870

Given how parties have changed over 7 decades I find it amazing someone could last that long in one party to begin with. How fortuitous that they changed in the exact same way as the party in all that time.

Noo said:

kle4 said:

MarqueeMark said:

dyedwoolie said:

Labour will at least be able to count on Eddie izzard and that Greek bloke. And Picard.

They lost PIcard.

https://news.sky.com/story/sir-patrick-stewart-breaks-with-labour-after-70-years-over-jeremy-corbyns-brexit-stance-11474870

Given how parties have changed over 7 decades I find it amazing someone could last that long in one party to begin with. How fortuitous that they changed in the exact same way as the party in all that time.

If you had an even churn rate of 20% each election, over the course of 17 elections (assuming 1 every 4 years for 70 years), you'd expect 2.2% of voters to stay with the same party right through.
Silly assumptions, but indicative that it's not completely bonkers to find someone who's been like that.

nico67 said:

OblitusSumMe said:

OblitusSumMe said:

AndyJS said:

Most recent polls seem to agree that Labour is on about 23%. They diverge on the Con and LD shares. Opininum has the gap at 20 points, YouGov at 8.

The most recent poll from ComRes gave Labour 27%, from Deltapoll 28%, from Panelbase 28% - it's easy to be distracted by the polling firms that poll more frequently than others.

Though from a brief look at the detailed poll data I'd be more inclined to trust the headline numbers from YouGov than ComRes. Quite a few Labour/LibDem supporters in the ComRes who didn't previously vote.

Intention to vote is one of the most difficult things for pollsters . At the last GE Survation got closest because they didn’t kick out so many previous non voters from their sample .

kle4 said:

Noo said:

kle4 said:

MarqueeMark said:

dyedwoolie said:

Labour will at least be able to count on Eddie izzard and that Greek bloke. And Picard.

They lost PIcard.

https://news.sky.com/story/sir-patrick-stewart-breaks-with-labour-after-70-years-over-jeremy-corbyns-brexit-stance-11474870

Given how parties have changed over 7 decades I find it amazing someone could last that long in one party to begin with. How fortuitous that they changed in the exact same way as the party in all that time.

If you had an even churn rate of 20% each election, over the course of 17 elections (assuming 1 every 4 years for 70 years), you'd expect 2.2% of voters to stay with the same party right through.
Silly assumptions, but indicative that it's not completely bonkers to find someone who's been like that.

Sure, but it should probably be more unusual than it is, since I bet it is a lot more than that percentage (even accepting the crude assumptions). It's football team tribalism. When someone thinks 'I am Labour/Conservative' rather than just supporting them, no wonder they justify sticking with it through all the changes - it'd be losing a part of their self identity.

OblitusSumMe said:

AndyJS said:

Most recent polls seem to agree that Labour is on about 23%. They diverge on the Con and LD shares. Opininum has the gap at 20 points, YouGov at 8.

The most recent poll from ComRes gave Labour 27%, from Deltapoll 28%, from Panelbase 28% - it's easy to be distracted by the polling firms that poll more frequently than others.

surbiton19 said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

New YouGov poll

Con 30 (-2)

Lab 23 (+2)

LD 22 (-1)

Electoral Calculus has the Tories 7 short of a majority with YouGov.

Conservatives 319, Labour 210, Liberal Democrats 57

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=30&LAB=23&LIB=22&Brexit=16&Green=4&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base

Take 10 off the Tories and give it to the SNP.

kle4 said:

Anabobazina said:

AndyJS said:

Chris said:

Given that probably the least dramatic thing that may happen between now and a general election is Johnson asking for and being given an extension, and other possibilities include leaving with No Deal, the dismissal and/or conviction of the prime minister and the formation of a government of national unity, I wish I could understand why anyone thinks it is worth feeding any of these poll ratings into a seat predictor.

Because it's one of the main things we do on PB.

That doesn’t make it worthwhile!

No it's not worthwhile, but hypothesising passes the time.

dyedwoolie said:

Yellow_Submarine said:

dyedwoolie said:

Yellow_Submarine said:

Sky say Thomas Cook are meeting creditors at a City law firm at 9 am tomorrow for a final attempt at saving the company. The briefing seems to be they'll fold by the early hours of Monday at the latest if no deal is done.

If they do go it's the sort of story that will receive absurd quantities of coverage out of all proportion to either its macroeconomic or human signifigance. That said the Government handled the collapse of Monarch very well with Chris Grayling in charge. While this is of a larger scale by about 50% it's not as if the rescue effort is unprecedented.

At least it will briefly change the national conversation from Brexit.

Oh God, we will have the interviews with angry gimps complaining the government didn't fly them on private jets with gold toilets from their flea pit hotel in Aiya Napa

It's already started. Someone who only took the exact amount of crucial heart medication and will apparently die if their flight is delayed. They might win a Darwin Award though. Someone else will run out of nappies and wetwipes, are a " 20 min Taxi ride from the nearest town " and " we don't speak Spanish. "

People. Ugh.

Anabobazina said:

dyedwoolie said:

Yellow_Submarine said:

dyedwoolie said:

Yellow_Submarine said:

Sky say Thomas Cook are meeting creditors at a City law firm at 9 am tomorrow for a final attempt at saving the company. The briefing seems to be they'll fold by the early hours of Monday at the latest if no deal is done.

If they do go it's the sort of story that will receive absurd quantities of coverage out of all proportion to either its macroeconomic or human signifigance. That said the Government handled the collapse of Monarch very well with Chris Grayling in charge. While this is of a larger scale by about 50% it's not as if the rescue effort is unprecedented.

At least it will briefly change the national conversation from Brexit.

Oh God, we will have the interviews with angry gimps complaining the government didn't fly them on private jets with gold toilets from their flea pit hotel in Aiya Napa

It's already started. Someone who only took the exact amount of crucial heart medication and will apparently die if their flight is delayed. They might win a Darwin Award though. Someone else will run out of nappies and wetwipes, are a " 20 min Taxi ride from the nearest town " and " we don't speak Spanish. "

People. Ugh.

Did you read about Patrick Stewart getting a hearing aid fitted on his forehead, because he couldn’t capture any sounds from units on the sides? It was the last resort of the doctors...

dyedwoolie said:

Anabobazina said:

dyedwoolie said:

Yellow_Submarine said:

dyedwoolie said:

Yellow_Submarine said:

Sky say Thomas Cook are meeting creditors at a City law firm at 9 am tomorrow for a final attempt at saving the company. The briefing seems to be they'll fold by the early hours of Monday at the latest if no deal is done.

If they do go it's the sort of story that will receive absurd quantities of coverage out of all proportion to either its macroeconomic or human signifigance. That said the Government handled the collapse of Monarch very well with Chris Grayling in charge. While this is of a larger scale by about 50% it's not as if the rescue effort is unprecedented.

At least it will briefly change the national conversation from Brexit.

Oh God, we will have the interviews with angry gimps complaining the government didn't fly them on private jets with gold toilets from their flea pit hotel in Aiya Napa

It's already started. Someone who only took the exact amount of crucial heart medication and will apparently die if their flight is delayed. They might win a Darwin Award though. Someone else will run out of nappies and wetwipes, are a " 20 min Taxi ride from the nearest town " and " we don't speak Spanish. "

People. Ugh.

Did you read about Patrick Stewart getting a hearing aid fitted on his forehead, because he couldn’t capture any sounds from units on the sides? It was the last resort of the doctors...

I did not

williamglenn said:

The Johnson story looks quite serious.

Noo said:

williamglenn said:

The Johnson story looks quite serious.

Uh oh. That smells like corruption. Glad to see an investigation is underway.

dyedwoolie said:

Noo said:

williamglenn said:

The Johnson story looks quite serious.

Uh oh. That smells like corruption. Glad to see an investigation is underway.

Sounds like Adam Werrity with boobs

Anabobazina said:

dyedwoolie said:

Anabobazina said:

dyedwoolie said:

Yellow_Submarine said:

dyedwoolie said:

Yellow_Submarine said:

Sky say Thomas Cook are meeting creditors at a City law firm at 9 am tomorrow for a final attempt at saving the company. The briefing seems to be they'll fold by the early hours of Monday at the latest if no deal is done.

If they do go it's the sort of story that will receive absurd quantities of coverage out of all proportion to either its macroeconomic or human signifigance. That said the Government handled the collapse of Monarch very well with Chris Grayling in charge. While this is of a larger scale by about 50% it's not as if the rescue effort is unprecedented.

At least it will briefly change the national conversation from Brexit.

Oh God, we will have the interviews with angry gimps complaining the government didn't fly them on private jets with gold toilets from their flea pit hotel in Aiya Napa

It's already started. Someone who only took the exact amount of crucial heart medication and will apparently die if their flight is delayed. They might win a Darwin Award though. Someone else will run out of nappies and wetwipes, are a " 20 min Taxi ride from the nearest town " and " we don't speak Spanish. "

People. Ugh.

Did you read about Patrick Stewart getting a hearing aid fitted on his forehead, because he couldn’t capture any sounds from units on the sides? It was the last resort of the doctors...

I did not

It was the final front ear.

HYUFD said:

62% of Labour Party members want Britain to become a republic, just 15% are proud of British history and only one in five would be proud to sing the national anthem. Most blame the media or Corbyn's opponents for anti-Semitism allegations.

Most Labour members polled by YouGov also want to abolish Britain's borders and abolish the nuclear deterrent and blame Britain rather than the IRA for terrorist attacks in Northern Ireland.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EFBVSq9WsAA05Xk?format=jpg&name=large

Noo said:

dyedwoolie said:

Noo said:

williamglenn said:

The Johnson story looks quite serious.

Uh oh. That smells like corruption. Glad to see an investigation is underway.

Sounds like Adam Werrity with boobs

You mean "disgraced former friend of disgraced former defence secretary Liam Fox" Adam Werritty?

HYUFD said:

A new Canadian poll out today and taken yesterday from Nanos shows the Liberal vote down a bit since the Trudeau 'blackface' affair but the Conservative vote also down slightly, albeit by less than the Liberal vote, with the main gainers the NDP and the Bloc Quebecois.

The figures are Liberals 32%, Conservatives 36.8%, NDP 13.7%, Bloc Quebecois 5.4%, Greens 9%.

The previous Nanos poll had it Liberals 34.2%, Conservatives 37.4%, NDP 12.8%, Bloc Quebecois 3.5%, Greens 9.3%.

Justin Trudeau still leads as preferred PM on 32% to 29% for Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer and 10% for NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh.

https://secureservercdn.net/198.71.233.47/823.910.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/2019-1445-CTV-Globe-ELXN-Ending-September-20-2019.pdf

dyedwoolie said:

Anabobazina said:

dyedwoolie said:

Anabobazina said:

dyedwoolie said:

Yellow_Submarine said:

dyedwoolie said:

Yellow_Submarine said:

Sky say Thomas Cook are meeting creditors at a City law firm at 9 am tomorrow for a final attempt at saving the company. The briefing seems to be they'll fold by the early hours of Monday at the latest if no deal is done.

If they do go it's the sort of story that will receive absurd quantities of coverage out of all proportion to either its macroeconomic or human signifigance. That said the Government handled the collapse of Monarch very well with Chris Grayling in charge. While this is of a larger scale by about 50% it's not as if the rescue effort is unprecedented.

At least it will briefly change the national conversation from Brexit.

Oh God, we will have the interviews with angry gimps complaining the government didn't fly them on private jets with gold toilets from their flea pit hotel in Aiya Napa

It's already started. Someone who only took the exact amount of crucial heart medication and will apparently die if their flight is delayed. They might win a Darwin Award though. Someone else will run out of nappies and wetwipes, are a " 20 min Taxi ride from the nearest town " and " we don't speak Spanish. "

People. Ugh.

Did you read about Patrick Stewart getting a hearing aid fitted on his forehead, because he couldn’t capture any sounds from units on the sides? It was the last resort of the doctors...

I did not

It was the final front ear.

I thought I had the worst Picard joke in the world. I was wrong.

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

62% of Labour Party members want Britain to become a republic, just 15% are proud of British history and only one in five would be proud to sing the national anthem. Most blame the media or Corbyn's opponents for anti-Semitism allegations.

Most Labour members polled by YouGov also want to abolish Britain's borders and abolish the nuclear deterrent and blame Britain rather than the IRA for terrorist attacks in Northern Ireland.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EFBVSq9WsAA05Xk?format=jpg&name=large

Given overall numbers in support of a Republic I am not surprised a high percentage of Labour members do, unfortunately a lot of people have no pride in British history and a lot of people dislike the anthem even if they are proud of this country, and it's no surprise that most think the anti-semitism allegations are not their fault.

The last three do surprise me a little though, less so on the nuclear deterrent than the other two.

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

62% of Labour Party members want Britain to become a republic, just 15% are proud of British history and only one in five would be proud to sing the national anthem. Most blame the media or Corbyn's opponents for anti-Semitism allegations.

Most Labour members polled by YouGov also want to abolish Britain's borders and abolish the nuclear deterrent and blame Britain rather than the IRA for terrorist attacks in Northern Ireland.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EFBVSq9WsAA05Xk?format=jpg&name=large

Given overall numbers in support of a Republic I am not surprised a high percentage of Labour members do, unfortunately a lot of people have no pride in British history and a lot of people dislike the anthem even if they are proud of this country, and it's no surprise that most think the anti-semitism allegations are not their fault.

The last three do surprise me a little though, less so on the nuclear deterrent than the other two.

AndyJS said:

surbiton19 said:

Frankly, I do not believe anymore either sets of polls. [ Opinium, YouGov ] on the one hand and the rest on the other. We need a large MRP poll [ min 20000 ] to recalibrate our compass.

I don't really believe any one poll, but it is worthwhile to look at the latest average of all the polls combined IMO.

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

62% of Labour Party members want Britain to become a republic, just 15% are proud of British history and only one in five would be proud to sing the national anthem. Most blame the media or Corbyn's opponents for anti-Semitism allegations.

Most Labour members polled by YouGov also want to abolish Britain's borders and abolish the nuclear deterrent and blame Britain rather than the IRA for terrorist attacks in Northern Ireland.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EFBVSq9WsAA05Xk?format=jpg&name=large

Given overall numbers in support of a Republic I am not surprised a high percentage of Labour members do, unfortunately a lot of people have no pride in British history and a lot of people dislike the anthem even if they are proud of this country, and it's no surprise that most think the anti-semitism allegations are not their fault.

The last three do surprise me a little though, less so on the nuclear deterrent than the other two.

I would imagine Labour members support for open door immigration and abolishing the monarchy will not go down well in working class Labour Leave seats

Will either be in the manifesto though?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tactical voting could cost the Conservatives up to 60 seats at a snap general election and eject Boris Johnson from No 10, new polling has found.

Almost half of Labour supporters and an even higher proportion of Greens say they are ready to switch to the Liberal Democrats if it would help defeat the party committed to Brexit in their constituency.

More than a third of Lib Dem backers would make the opposite journey at the ballot box – potentially delivering 60 seats and a mortal blow to Mr Johnson’s hopes of winning a majority.

The poll, for the People’s Vote campaign, comes after it unveiled plans for the biggest vote-swapping drive in history, to support the best-placed candidate in more than 100 battleground seats.

“Tactical voting could damage Johnson’s prospects fatally, meaning Labour could make net gains from the Tories,” said pollster Peter Kellner, the former YouGov president.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-poll-boris-johnson-conservatives-brexit-lib-dems-labour-a9114826.html?amp

AndyJS said:

BigRich said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tactical voting could cost the Conservatives up to 60 seats at a snap general election and eject Boris Johnson from No 10, new polling has found.

Almost half of Labour supporters and an even higher proportion of Greens say they are ready to switch to the Liberal Democrats if it would help defeat the party committed to Brexit in their constituency.

More than a third of Lib Dem backers would make the opposite journey at the ballot box – potentially delivering 60 seats and a mortal blow to Mr Johnson’s hopes of winning a majority.

The poll, for the People’s Vote campaign, comes after it unveiled plans for the biggest vote-swapping drive in history, to support the best-placed candidate in more than 100 battleground seats.

“Tactical voting could damage Johnson’s prospects fatally, meaning Labour could make net gains from the Tories,” said pollster Peter Kellner, the former YouGov president.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-poll-boris-johnson-conservatives-brexit-lib-dems-labour-a9114826.html?amp

Yes.......But....

Could there not be Tactical voting between Con and Brexit Party?

It may be less or at least less effective, I don't know but to consider that only one side will tactical vote is not a goo prediction tool.

The problem for the Tories is that a lot of Brexit Party supporters are culturally accustomed to voting Labour in previous times. It's difficult for them to get in the mindset of voting tactically for the Conservatives.

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

62% of Labour Party members want Britain to become a republic, just 15% are proud of British history and only one in five would be proud to sing the national anthem. Most blame the media or Corbyn's opponents for anti-Semitism allegations.

Most Labour members polled by YouGov also want to abolish Britain's borders and abolish the nuclear deterrent and blame Britain rather than the IRA for terrorist attacks in Northern Ireland.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EFBVSq9WsAA05Xk?format=jpg&name=large

Given overall numbers in support of a Republic I am not surprised a high percentage of Labour members do, unfortunately a lot of people have no pride in British history and a lot of people dislike the anthem even if they are proud of this country, and it's no surprise that most think the anti-semitism allegations are not their fault.

The last three do surprise me a little though, less so on the nuclear deterrent than the other two.

I would imagine Labour members support for open door immigration and abolishing the monarchy will not go down well in working class Labour Leave seats

Chris said:

The findings about tactical voting just push these poll-based seat projections even further into the realms of fantasy. A complete waste of time.

HYUFD said:

spire2 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

62% of Labour Party members want Britain to become a republic, just 15% are proud of British history and only one in five would be proud to sing the national anthem. Most blame the media or Corbyn's opponents for anti-Semitism allegations.

Most Labour members polled by YouGov also want to abolish Britain's borders and abolish the nuclear deterrent and blame Britain rather than the IRA for terrorist attacks in Northern Ireland.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EFBVSq9WsAA05Xk?format=jpg&name=large

Given overall numbers in support of a Republic I am not surprised a high percentage of Labour members do, unfortunately a lot of people have no pride in British history and a lot of people dislike the anthem even if they are proud of this country, and it's no surprise that most think the anti-semitism allegations are not their fault.

The last three do surprise me a little though, less so on the nuclear deterrent than the other two.

I would imagine Labour members support for open door immigration and abolishing the monarchy will not go down well in working class Labour Leave seats

what does abolish britains borders mean?

No border controls

Artist said:

Now, in the YouGov poll, 35 per cent of Lib Dem and 42 per cent of Green voters are ready to switch to Jeremy Corbyn‘s party if they “thought that the only parties with a realistic chance of winning in your constituency were the Conservatives or Labour”.

A bit leading.

There are some Lib Dem targets with healthy Labour scores that they'll almost certainly gain if there's 50% Labour tactical voting though like St Albans, Cheadle and Hazel Grove.

spire2 said:

HYUFD said:

spire2 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

62% of Labour Party members want Britain to become a republic, just 15% are proud of British history and only one in five would be proud to sing the national anthem. Most blame the media or Corbyn's opponents for anti-Semitism allegations.

Most Labour members polled by YouGov also want to abolish Britain's borders and abolish the nuclear deterrent and blame Britain rather than the IRA for terrorist attacks in Northern Ireland.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EFBVSq9WsAA05Xk?format=jpg&name=large

Given overall numbers in support of a Republic I am not surprised a high percentage of Labour members do, unfortunately a lot of people have no pride in British history and a lot of people dislike the anthem even if they are proud of this country, and it's no surprise that most think the anti-semitism allegations are not their fault.

The last three do surprise me a little though, less so on the nuclear deterrent than the other two.

I would imagine Labour members support for open door immigration and abolishing the monarchy will not go down well in working class Labour Leave seats

what does abolish britains borders mean?

No border controls

that's not the same as abolishing borders so would you like to edit your previous comment

ReggieCide said:

Chris said:

The findings about tactical voting just push these poll-based seat projections even further into the realms of fantasy. A complete waste of time.

This is far too sensible for most on here

Chris said:

HYUFD said:

Chris said:

The findings about tactical voting just push these poll-based seat projections even further into the realms of fantasy. A complete waste of time.

No they don't as most LD voters will clearly not vote Corbyn Labour even in Labour v Tory marginal seats.

The only difference they might make is the LDs might gain a few more seats from the Tories than UNS suggests as more Labour voters are willing to tactically vote LD than vice-versa

Well, YouGov estimates it could cost the Tories up to 60 seats. No doubt you know better, as always.

But even if you could ignore the likely effect of tactical voting, you'd still be stuck with the fact that the political situation will have changed dramatically by the time of the election. We'll either have left the EU or we'll have extended, and whichever of those happens will potentially have a huge effect on party support. Obsessing over the current polls is just as much of a waste of time as it was one, two, three or four months ago.

AndyJS said:

I hope Boris Johnson is on the case. This is the sort of thing that can get out of control for a government with 150,000 people on holiday with the company.

https://twitter.com/SimonCalder/status/1175549865780293632