This Opinium poll is the best to date for the Tories. On a UNS basis, it implies 59 gains from Labour partially offset by 11 losses to the LDs. If there are 10 further losses to the SNP, the Tories end up on 355 - a majority of 60.
Jezza should have agreed to the election as [one or two of us] said at the time...
Why?
Because Jezza is nothing if he's not a campaigner. Campaigning is what he does. It's in his DNA or that's what everyone thought.
Look what he did in 2017 when he was like "bring it on" - He was litterally a few thousand votes from being PM.
By running and hiding from the electorate he has basically destroyed his rasion d'etre...
The strategy was to boil Boris slowly by waiting until after his self-imposed deadline of 31 Oct.
It’s 21 September.
Have some patience man!!
That's assuming that Brexiteers are too stupid to realise that Remainers in Parliament are the problem and that they need to give Boris a majority to get the job done.
Er, there aren’t enough of them...
Er, we've just had a poll that forecasts a Tory landslide bigger than Blair's.
No, I’m saying that there aren’t enough Brexiteers to trigger an election.
You are getting too excited by a poll man!
Calm down. Think straight.
It doesn't matter.
The longer the opposition run scared of an election the more abject and humiliating they will be and the more they will suffer for it.
Yes, I think you’re right. Labour are suffering badly from the perception they won’t fight an election. It’s just a terrible look. How can you be an opposition if you won’t oppose in the most fundamental way? How can you ask people to vote for you and get rid of the evil Tories, when you’re content to let these evil people remain in power? I expect Labour will yield soon.
Could being outed as a wealthy, privileged out of touch racist actually help Trudeau? Could it reassure key swing voters that he is actually one of them?
Could being outed as a wealthy, privileged out of touch racist actually help Trudeau? Could it reassure key swing voters that he is actually one of them?
I don't think so. Most of those voters probably won't consider voting Liberal.
I can't help thinking that all this talk of a Lib Dem revival is just another unicorn. Or maybe something worse than a unicorn.
In reality I can think of few things more conducive to Johnson getting an electoral mandate for No Deal (if that's what he wants) than a Lib Dem revival that would split the opposition vote.
I'm afraid that most politicians are quite privileged people who will be protected against the consequences of No Deal, and that - despite the self-serving rhetoric - there are only a relatively small number who really see avoiding it as their top priority.
If "most politicians are quite privileged people who will be protected against the consequences of No Deal" and by implication don't care then why are so many putting their careers at risk to stop it? You're also impying that Boris is somehow encouraging the LibDem revival - which, as a unicorn, wouldn't exist. Have you seen the results of the recent elections? Did you even read that post through before clicking 'Post Comment'?
Another reminder of why it's a waste of time commenting here.
But thanks anyway - obviously I still need reminding!
Didn't think you would be able to justify your post
I wonder - is anyone of normal intelligence with even the vaguest interest in politics not aware that under our electoral system it's advantageous to the party of government that the opposition vote is split?
But I think must be the Zeroth Law of Internet discussion that no view is so stupid or ignorant that some fool won't defend it, and no view is so self-evidently true that some fool won't deny it.
Given the Lib Dems are ahead of Labour with half the polling firns ...
Just listening to Ian Murray defending Tom Watson against a female Momentumite. He is extremely good. She's not bad but he's crushing her. The leader Labour should have gone for. Corbyn -as Murray says -is just not up to it. Three Scottish leaders of the four largest parties might seem a bit much but they're a class above their English equivalents. But this is depressing. With Corbyn Labour are completely fuc*ed
Just listening to Ian Murray defending Tom Watson against a female Momentumite. He is extremely good. She's not bad but he's crushing her. The leader Labour should have gone for. Corbyn -as Murray says -is just not up to it. Three Scottish leaders of the four largest parties might seem a bit much but they're a class above their English equivalents. But this is depressing. With Corbyn Labour are completely fuc*ed
CON + BXP = 49% despite the chaos. People should be careful about wishing for PR.
Tory + Brex = 49, lab and ldems = 39 makes you realise how bogus believing in this polling actually is. We take the polls, we do the calculation above, then we feed it through seats calculators, but the elephant in the polling booth is weighting on likely hood to vote. My evidence is the May disaster of 17 wasn’t May Bot, nor her manifesto, nor the dementia tax, it was an actual GE getting people voting Labour who not just told pollsters they wouldn’t, they used Bi elections and the locals as anti corbyn protest vote.
We shouldn’t be looking at likelihood to vote as a gospel, it’s the unlikelihood to vote that is currently making a monkey out of the pollsters.
Jezza should have agreed to the election as [one or two of us] said at the time...
Why?
Because Jezza is nothing if he's not a campaigner. Campaigning is what he does. It's in his DNA or that's what everyone thought.
Look what he did in 2017 when he was like "bring it on" - He was litterally a few thousand votes from being PM.
By running and hiding from the electorate he has basically destroyed his rasion d'etre...
The strategy was to boil Boris slowly by waiting until after his self-imposed deadline of 31 Oct.
It’s 21 September.
Have some patience man!!
That's assuming that Brexiteers are too stupid to realise that Remainers in Parliament are the problem and that they need to give Boris a majority to get the job done.
The interesting thing about that story is nothing to do with Corbo or the hard left. It’s the rumours about a Tory rebel backed gnu under Ken or Harriet.
Did I really see someone upthread run Electoral Calculus on Opinium?
Ye gods. You might as well run a ZX Spectrum random number generator and call it a forecast.
Even using UNS the Tories would gain 62 seats off Labour on tonight's Opinium and only lose 11 to the LDs and say 10 to the SNP, giving a Tory majority of 72
The Sunday times report on the political attitudes of labour members is mind boggling. Far far far far left. Virtually Maoist. And they elect the next leader.
This is a dying party. I do not think it can now be saved.
Yes, labour similar but a different lib to con balance
It is actually the lowest Tory lead with Yougov since Johnson took office. In contrast, Opinium have been shifting sharply against Labour week by week for a month now. I am wondering whether the firm has had methodological changes.
CON + BXP = 49% despite the chaos. People should be careful about wishing for PR.
Why? If Con + BXP are polling 49% the problem is that my side of the debate have failed to convincingly win the argument, not that a polling system might reflect the votes of the electorate.
"NO! NOOOOOOOOO!!! [smashes a conference lectern in anger] I will not sacrifice the Labour Party!. We've made too many compromises already, too many retreats. The Marxists invade our political space, and we fall back. They assimilate entire constituency parties, and we fall back. Not again. The line must be drawn here! This far, no further! And I will make them pay for what they've done!"
Did I really see someone upthread run Electoral Calculus on Opinium?
Ye gods. You might as well run a ZX Spectrum random number generator and call it a forecast.
Even using UNS the Tories would gain 62 seats off Labour on tonight's Opinium and only lose 11 to the LDs and say 10 to the SNP, giving a Tory majority of 72
Did I really see someone upthread run Electoral Calculus on Opinium?
Ye gods. You might as well run a ZX Spectrum random number generator and call it a forecast.
Even using UNS the Tories would gain 62 seats off Labour on tonight's Opinium and only lose 11 to the LDs and say 10 to the SNP, giving a Tory majority of 72
Opinium is suggesting a 6.25% swing. Yougov has the swing as 2.25%.
Labour retake a 1% lead from the LDs but still Labour and the LDs neck and neck for second place.
On YouGov the Tories would gain 24 Labour seats on UNS, the LDs would gain 19 Tory seats so much closer and with SNP gains from the Tories would likely be another hung parliament with the DUP again holding the balance of power
Labour retake a 1% lead from the LDs but still Labour and the LDs neck and neck for second place.
On YouGov the Tories would gain 24 Labour seats on UNS, the LDs would gain 19 Tory seats so much closer and with SNP gains from the Tories would likely be another hung parliament with the DUP again holding the balance of power
I know I was pulling you guys’ legs about triumphalism and hubris but even I hadn’t expected it to be this short-lived!
A mischievous piece of editing on the BBC News. A Labour MP saying they risk a repeat of the EU elections, coming third or fourth - cuts to Corbyn giving the thumbs up!
Sickening but all too unsurprising that Lib Dem MEPs wrote to Juncker asking him not to give us a deal. Sacking this pond life will be one of the more delicious aspects of leaving the EU.
Labour retake a 1% lead from the LDs but still Labour and the LDs neck and neck for second place.
On YouGov the Tories would gain 24 Labour seats on UNS, the LDs would gain 19 Tory seats so much closer and with SNP gains from the Tories would likely be another hung parliament with the DUP again holding the balance of power
I know I was pulling you guys’ legs about triumphalism and hubris but even I hadn’t expected it to be this short-lived!
Where’s your backbone?
The Tories are about 10 points ahead. The Lib Dems are close to overtaking Labour. That much is clear.
On a UNS basis, Yougov implies 23 Tory gains from Labour offset by 21 losses to the LDs and circa 10 to the SNP. That would leave the Tories with 309 seats - though 5 of the vulnerable Labour seats could be saved as a result of first time incumbency.
Labour retake a 1% lead from the LDs but still Labour and the LDs neck and neck for second place.
On YouGov the Tories would gain 24 Labour seats on UNS, the LDs would gain 19 Tory seats so much closer and with SNP gains from the Tories would likely be another hung parliament with the DUP again holding the balance of power
The DUP would not quite hold the balance on the Yougov data.
Sickening but all too unsurprising that Lib Dem MEPs wrote to Juncker asking him not to give us a deal. Sacking this pond life will be one of the more delicious aspects of leaving the EU.
It will be interesting to see how Swinson tries to defend this. It looks awful.
On a UNS basis, Yougov implies 23 Tory gains from Labour offset by 21 losses to the LDs and circa 10 to the SNP. That would leave the Tories with 309 seats - though 5 of the vulnerable Labour seats could be saved as a result of first time incumbency.
What about the first time incumbency boost the Tories would gain in the 20 seats they gained in 2017?
Labour retake a 1% lead from the LDs but still Labour and the LDs neck and neck for second place.
On YouGov the Tories would gain 24 Labour seats on UNS, the LDs would gain 19 Tory seats so much closer and with SNP gains from the Tories would likely be another hung parliament with the DUP again holding the balance of power
I know I was pulling you guys’ legs about triumphalism and hubris but even I hadn’t expected it to be this short-lived!
Where’s your backbone?
The Tories are about 10 points ahead. The Lib Dems are close to overtaking Labour. That much is clear.
Sickening but all too unsurprising that Lib Dem MEPs wrote to Juncker asking him not to give us a deal. Sacking this pond life will be one of the more delicious aspects of leaving the EU.
It will be interesting to see how Swinson tries to defend this. It looks awful.
Boris Johnson didn't criticise/condemn Daniel Kawczynski for effectively trying to get the Polish government to stop a deal.
On a UNS basis, Yougov implies 23 Tory gains from Labour offset by 21 losses to the LDs and circa 10 to the SNP. That would leave the Tories with 309 seats - though 5 of the vulnerable Labour seats could be saved as a result of first time incumbency.
After this approaching clusterfuck of a conference Labour will do well to poll over 15%
That said, there is good news for them. If these multiple rumours are true and Corbyn is close to going, then they will soon have a new and better leader. It they install someone remotely sensible like Thornberry they could be polling 30+ very soon. And headed for an election win. Volatile times
On a UNS basis, Yougov implies 23 Tory gains from Labour offset by 21 losses to the LDs and circa 10 to the SNP. That would leave the Tories with 309 seats - though 5 of the vulnerable Labour seats could be saved as a result of first time incumbency.
What about the first time incumbency boost the Tories would gain in the 20 seats they gained in 2017?
That only applies in a handful of the seats gained from SNP. Their 2017 gains from Labour are not at risk at present. Gains from LDs could enjoy such a bonus - but the Con to LD swing is too big for that to make a difference here.
Given that probably the least dramatic thing that may happen between now and a general election is Johnson asking for and being given an extension, and other possibilities include leaving with No Deal, the dismissal and/or conviction of the prime minister and the formation of a government of national unity, I wish I could understand why anyone thinks it is worth feeding any of these poll ratings into a seat predictor.
Sickening but all too unsurprising that Lib Dem MEPs wrote to Juncker asking him not to give us a deal. Sacking this pond life will be one of the more delicious aspects of leaving the EU.
It will be interesting to see how Swinson tries to defend this. It looks awful.
How did Boris deal with Tory MPs asking the Polish govt to block an extension? Ignored it? Requested it?
Given that probably the least dramatic thing that may happen between now and a general election is Johnson asking for and being given an extension, and other possibilities include leaving with No Deal, the dismissal and/or conviction of the prime minister and the formation of a government of national unity, I wish I could understand why anyone thinks it is worth feeding any of these poll ratings into a seat predictor.
Sickening but all too unsurprising that Lib Dem MEPs wrote to Juncker asking him not to give us a deal. Sacking this pond life will be one of the more delicious aspects of leaving the EU.
Are you talking about the Brexit Party who abstained on a an EU parliament vote demanding the release of Nazanin Zaghari Ratcliffe. You mean that pond life !
On a UNS basis, Yougov implies 23 Tory gains from Labour offset by 21 losses to the LDs and circa 10 to the SNP. That would leave the Tories with 309 seats - though 5 of the vulnerable Labour seats could be saved as a result of first time incumbency.
After this approaching clusterfuck of a conference Labour will do well to poll over 15%
That said, there is good news for them. If these multiple rumours are true and Corbyn is close to going, then they will soon have a new and better leader. It they install someone remotely sensible like Thornberry they could be polling 30+ very soon. And headed for an election win. Volatile times
Unlikely . Yougov had Labour at 23% when May called the election in April 2017 - with the Tories 20% plus ahead.
Given that probably the least dramatic thing that may happen between now and a general election is Johnson asking for and being given an extension, and other possibilities include leaving with No Deal, the dismissal and/or conviction of the prime minister and the formation of a government of national unity, I wish I could understand why anyone thinks it is worth feeding any of these poll ratings into a seat predictor.
Sickening but all too unsurprising that Lib Dem MEPs wrote to Juncker asking him not to give us a deal. Sacking this pond life will be one of the more delicious aspects of leaving the EU.
It will be interesting to see how Swinson tries to defend this. It looks awful.
How did Boris deal with Tory MPs asking the Polish govt to block an extension? Ignored it? Requested it?
Sickening but all too unsurprising that Lib Dem MEPs wrote to Juncker asking him not to give us a deal. Sacking this pond life will be one of the more delicious aspects of leaving the EU.
It will be interesting to see how Swinson tries to defend this. It looks awful.
Boris Johnson didn't criticise/condemn Daniel Kawczynski for effectively trying to get the Polish government to stop a deal.
Your usual whataboutery. Presumably you think the action of the Lib Dem MEP's is ok then?
Given that probably the least dramatic thing that may happen between now and a general election is Johnson asking for and being given an extension, and other possibilities include leaving with No Deal, the dismissal and/or conviction of the prime minister and the formation of a government of national unity, I wish I could understand why anyone thinks it is worth feeding any of these poll ratings into a seat predictor.
It seems a bit like writing out your shopping list for Monday without taking into account that the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse will be riding through town tomorrow. Perhaps literally.
Sickening but all too unsurprising that Lib Dem MEPs wrote to Juncker asking him not to give us a deal. Sacking this pond life will be one of the more delicious aspects of leaving the EU.
It will be interesting to see how Swinson tries to defend this. It looks awful.
How did Boris deal with Tory MPs asking the Polish govt to block an extension? Ignored it? Requested it?
Sickening but all too unsurprising that Lib Dem MEPs wrote to Juncker asking him not to give us a deal. Sacking this pond life will be one of the more delicious aspects of leaving the EU.
It will be interesting to see how Swinson tries to defend this. It looks awful.
Boris Johnson didn't criticise/condemn Daniel Kawczynski for effectively trying to get the Polish government to stop a deal.
Your usual whataboutery. Presumably you think the action of the Lib Dem MEP's is ok then?
Given that probably the least dramatic thing that may happen between now and a general election is Johnson asking for and being given an extension, and other possibilities include leaving with No Deal, the dismissal and/or conviction of the prime minister and the formation of a government of national unity, I wish I could understand why anyone thinks it is worth feeding any of these poll ratings into a seat predictor.
Sickening but all too unsurprising that Lib Dem MEPs wrote to Juncker asking him not to give us a deal. Sacking this pond life will be one of the more delicious aspects of leaving the EU.
It will be interesting to see how Swinson tries to defend this. It looks awful.
How did Boris deal with Tory MPs asking the Polish govt to block an extension? Ignored it? Requested it?
Sickening but all too unsurprising that Lib Dem MEPs wrote to Juncker asking him not to give us a deal. Sacking this pond life will be one of the more delicious aspects of leaving the EU.
It will be interesting to see how Swinson tries to defend this. It looks awful.
Boris Johnson didn't criticise/condemn Daniel Kawczynski for effectively trying to get the Polish government to stop a deal.
Your usual whataboutery. Presumably you think the action of the Lib Dem MEP's is ok then?
I wish all our politicians had got together early on and worked consensually to deliver a sensible soft Brexit. That they didnt is not particularly the fault of the LDs who were largely bystanders in the parliamentary games with a handful of seats. The blame for that is mostly Theresa Mays followed by the Tory party and Jeremy Corbyn. In the present climate both sides will do whatever it takes.
On a UNS basis, Yougov implies 23 Tory gains from Labour offset by 21 losses to the LDs and circa 10 to the SNP. That would leave the Tories with 309 seats - though 5 of the vulnerable Labour seats could be saved as a result of first time incumbency.
After this approaching clusterfuck of a conference Labour will do well to poll over 15%
That said, there is good news for them. If these multiple rumours are true and Corbyn is close to going, then they will soon have a new and better leader. It they install someone remotely sensible like Thornberry they could be polling 30+ very soon. And headed for an election win. Volatile times
I would not even be sure of that given the Tory and Brexit Party combined total is still about level with the Labour and LD combined total and Labour would also lose a few Corbynites to the Greens
Sickening but all too unsurprising that Lib Dem MEPs wrote to Juncker asking him not to give us a deal. Sacking this pond life will be one of the more delicious aspects of leaving the EU.
It will be interesting to see how Swinson tries to defend this. It looks awful.
How did Boris deal with Tory MPs asking the Polish govt to block an extension? Ignored it? Requested it?
Sickening but all too unsurprising that Lib Dem MEPs wrote to Juncker asking him not to give us a deal. Sacking this pond life will be one of the more delicious aspects of leaving the EU.
It will be interesting to see how Swinson tries to defend this. It looks awful.
Boris Johnson didn't criticise/condemn Daniel Kawczynski for effectively trying to get the Polish government to stop a deal.
Your usual whataboutery. Presumably you think the action of the Lib Dem MEP's is ok then?
To self-loathing drunk PB Tories predicting end of Labour and Corbyn through rosacea-addled froth-flecked faces for the 400th time in the last 4 years, I'm sorry about your soon to be ongoing disappointment.
The British Army are to set up camp in Swindon on Monday, rumoured to be preparing for civil unrest in the event of a no-deal Brexit outcome next month.
It’s understood that the Royal Electrical and Mechanical Engineers (REME) corps are moving on to the former Clares factory opposite the Oasis Leisure Centre from the start of next week, 23 September.
Most recent polls seem to agree that Labour is on about 23%. They diverge on the Con and LD shares. Opininum has the gap at 20 points, YouGov at 8.
The most recent poll from ComRes gave Labour 27%, from Deltapoll 28%, from Panelbase 28% - it's easy to be distracted by the polling firms that poll more frequently than others.
Recent machinations are certainly consistent with Jeremy Corbyn standing down in the not too distant future. @Charles mentioned doubts about Corbyn's health and it has long been rumoured that he is not enjoying leading the party. His past service reinforces the view that Corbyn is not personally ambitious.
Or it could just be a clumsy overreach by Lansman.
But three TU reps voted with Lansman. TUs don't vote accidentally. Plus all Corbyn acolytes. Maybe Corbyn left the room because he realized 2/3rd majority was not possible. It was NOT a ruthless Leftist coup. The Hard Left would have been ashamed. They reckon Momentum are a bunch of amateurs.
Although the idiot moderates have fallen for the pretence that a “review” of the role will not lead to abolition
Labour retake a 1% lead from the LDs but still Labour and the LDs neck and neck for second place.
On YouGov the Tories would gain 24 Labour seats on UNS, the LDs would gain 19 Tory seats so much closer and with SNP gains from the Tories would likely be another hung parliament with the DUP again holding the balance of power
I know I was pulling you guys’ legs about triumphalism and hubris but even I hadn’t expected it to be this short-lived!
Where’s your backbone?
Still there but the LDs on 15 to 20% as in Opinium rather than 20 to 25% with Yougov and the Tories closer to 35%+ with Opinium than 30% with Yougov by squeezing the Brexit Party will make the difference between a Tory majority or another hung parliament based on the YouGov and Opinium figures, Labour is polling about the same with both
The British Army are to set up camp in Swindon on Monday, rumoured to be preparing for civil unrest in the event of a no-deal Brexit outcome next month.
It’s understood that the Royal Electrical and Mechanical Engineers (REME) corps are moving on to the former Clares factory opposite the Oasis Leisure Centre from the start of next week, 23 September.
The fact a nation will be doing this to itself shows the utter lunacy now running rampant in the government and in large sections of the public . .
Frankly, I do not believe anymore either sets of polls. [ Opinium, YouGov ] on the one hand and the rest on the other. We need a large MRP poll [ min 20000 ] to recalibrate our compass.
Recent machinations are certainly consistent with Jeremy Corbyn standing down in the not too distant future. @Charles mentioned doubts about Corbyn's health and it has long been rumoured that he is not enjoying leading the party. His past service reinforces the view that Corbyn is not personally ambitious.
Or it could just be a clumsy overreach by Lansman.
But three TU reps voted with Lansman. TUs don't vote accidentally. Plus all Corbyn acolytes. Maybe Corbyn left the room because he realized 2/3rd majority was not possible. It was NOT a ruthless Leftist coup. The Hard Left would have been ashamed. They reckon Momentum are a bunch of amateurs.
Although the idiot moderates have fallen for the pretence that a “review” of the role will not lead to abolition
Big deal . The Lib Dems want to stop Brexit. So why would anyone be shocked that they’ve put that case .
Is it any different to Tory MPs and Farage asking a country to veto an extension.
I personally don’t support the revoke policy but I hope Leavers will spare Remainers the faux outrage when their poster boy Bozo is both a pathological liar and not negotiating in good faith .
It is exactly the same as the Faragists' tactics, which is to say, reprehensible. Lobbying foreign leaders over the heads of Her Majesty's government to help out your own political faction should be off limits. All this does is further delegitimize a successful revoke push. Even if they get it, the Tories will take us out of the EU with no further referendum the next time they get a majority.
You seem to be forgetting that in the unlikely event of a LibDem majority under FPTP they will:
1. Revoke A50 2. Introduce PR to make it extrememly unlikely that the Tories or any other party will win a majority in future.
Think of it as their way of getting their own back on FPTP
They may not introduce PR if they get a majority under FPTP, the Trudeau experience suggests Liberals are all for PR in opposition but as soon as they win a majority under FPTP they dump it rather than risk having to share power with parties to their left or right.
You are unusually cynical this afternoon, Mr HY. It is the Conservatives who make promises when they are campaigning for votes, and then go back on those promises.
Two words, tuition fees shows how LDs can dispense with promises when needed
Yes, no other party has ever gone back on their word before.
It was a dramatic example to be sure, but they at least had an excuse of compromising in a coalition government. The faux superiority of other parties about tuition fees is exceedingly lame.
Most recent polls seem to agree that Labour is on about 23%. They diverge on the Con and LD shares. Opininum has the gap at 20 points, YouGov at 8.
The most recent poll from ComRes gave Labour 27%, from Deltapoll 28%, from Panelbase 28% - it's easy to be distracted by the polling firms that poll more frequently than others.
Though from a brief look at the detailed poll data I'd be more inclined to trust the headline numbers from YouGov than ComRes. Quite a few Labour/LibDem supporters in the ComRes who didn't previously vote.
Frankly, I do not believe anymore either sets of polls. [ Opinium, YouGov ] on the one hand and the rest on the other. We need a large MRP poll [ min 20000 ] to recalibrate our compass.
Unfortunately if you have an error to begin with in your sample then a big sample just magnifies that .
The British Army are to set up camp in Swindon on Monday, rumoured to be preparing for civil unrest in the event of a no-deal Brexit outcome next month.
It’s understood that the Royal Electrical and Mechanical Engineers (REME) corps are moving on to the former Clares factory opposite the Oasis Leisure Centre from the start of next week, 23 September.
The article continues: "The event is being branded as an ‘urban training exercise’, but locals believe that the move could be in preparation for large-scale disorder across the county ahead of the Brexit outcome. Local businesses have been informed of the ‘exercise’ – said to be taking place for around two weeks – and have been warned to expect to see uniformed soldiers carrying firearm."
Sky say Thomas Cook are meeting creditors at a City law firm at 9 am tomorrow for a final attempt at saving the company. The briefing seems to be they'll fold by the early hours of Monday at the latest if no deal is done.
If they do go it's the sort of story that will receive absurd quantities of coverage out of all proportion to either its macroeconomic or human signifigance. That said the Government handled the collapse of Monarch very well with Chris Grayling in charge. While this is of a larger scale by about 50% it's not as if the rescue effort is unprecedented.
At least it will briefly change the national conversation from Brexit.
Emily Thornberry had a neat solution to Brexit the other day.
She said Labour MPs would vote for Bojo’s deal IF it was first put to a referendum, versus Remain.
That’s clever. In a world of terrible options that might just be the best, and help the country to heal. So clearly we won’t do this.
Any new referendum that includes Remain as an option will tear this country apart not heal it.
The country is already torn. It’s a question of choosing the least bad option, from here.
FWIW I think a Boris deal versus Remain referendum would produce a handy victory for a deal.
And while I think the opposite about the result, I would agree its about least bad options. Most would rather not be in a position where a referendum occurred, but there's precious few paths available, let alone good ones.
Comments
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/20/opinion/biden-warren-2020-elections.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
http://britainelects.com/polling/westminster/
FWIW I think a Boris deal versus Remain referendum would produce a handy victory for a deal.
MPs 'angry'. There will be tweets.
Con, 30
Labour, 23
Libs, 22
And read the rest of the report. Apparently the EHRC anti-semitism thing could finish the entire leadership. Horrific.
Tory + Brex = 49, lab and ldems = 39 makes you realise how bogus believing in this polling actually is. We take the polls, we do the calculation above, then we feed it through seats calculators, but the elephant in the polling booth is weighting on likely hood to vote. My evidence is the May disaster of 17 wasn’t May Bot, nor her manifesto, nor the dementia tax, it was an actual GE getting people voting Labour who not just told pollsters they wouldn’t, they used Bi elections and the locals as anti corbyn protest vote.
We shouldn’t be looking at likelihood to vote as a gospel, it’s the unlikelihood to vote that is currently making a monkey out of the pollsters.
Con 30 (-2)
Lab 23 (+2)
LD 22 (-1)
https://news.sky.com/story/sir-patrick-stewart-breaks-with-labour-after-70-years-over-jeremy-corbyns-brexit-stance-11474870
That could work.
And, it could be popular...
I’ve been mooting this for a while.
Ride the gnu!
This is a dying party. I do not think it can now be saved.
https://twitter.com/RosamundUrwin/status/1175478557293895683
On YouGov the Tories would gain 24 Labour seats on UNS, the LDs would gain 19 Tory seats so much closer and with SNP gains from the Tories would likely be another hung parliament with the DUP again holding the balance of power
Definitely not an intelligence sevice asset either.
Where’s your backbone?
Conservatives 319, Labour 210, Liberal Democrats 57
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=30&LAB=23&LIB=22&Brexit=16&Green=4&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
That said, there is good news for them. If these multiple rumours are true and Corbyn is close to going, then they will soon have a new and better leader. It they install someone remotely sensible like Thornberry they could be polling 30+ very soon. And headed for an election win. Volatile times
Unlike you, I'm happy to criticise both sides.
The British Army are to set up camp in Swindon on Monday, rumoured to be preparing for civil unrest in the event of a no-deal Brexit outcome next month.
It’s understood that the Royal Electrical and Mechanical Engineers (REME) corps are moving on to the former Clares factory opposite the Oasis Leisure Centre from the start of next week, 23 September.
It was a dramatic example to be sure, but they at least had an excuse of compromising in a coalition government. The faux superiority of other parties about tuition fees is exceedingly lame.
So it’s not always about sample size .
"The event is being branded as an ‘urban training exercise’, but locals believe that the move could be in preparation for large-scale disorder across the county ahead of the Brexit outcome.
Local businesses have been informed of the ‘exercise’ – said to be taking place for around two weeks – and have been warned to expect to see uniformed soldiers carrying firearm."
If they do go it's the sort of story that will receive absurd quantities of coverage out of all proportion to either its macroeconomic or human signifigance. That said the Government handled the collapse of Monarch very well with Chris Grayling in charge. While this is of a larger scale by about 50% it's not as if the rescue effort is unprecedented.
At least it will briefly change the national conversation from Brexit.