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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s leadership machinations could be a pointer that an early change is being planned
So far I have not been tempted to take the Betfair 26% that Corbyn will step down as LAB leader during 2019. But an early exit for Mr Corbyn is how some of the machinations ahead of the party conference both last night and this morning I’ve being interpreted.
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Or it could just be a clumsy overreach by Lansman.
https://twitter.com/OborneTweets/status/1175363861408616448?s=20
The thing that made me think this was possible and looking at the fixtures there isn't any that looks insurmountable.
Of the big clubs Arsenal has already been defeated.
Chelsea and Man are away so tricky but they're very vulnerable at the minute.
Man City are obviously tricky but are at Anfield and without Laporte.
Spurs, Merseyside Derby and Leicester all at Anfield too.
If we can keep winning at Anfield and defeat Man Utd and Chelsea on the road then there's not many fixtures left.
What would you think fair odds would be?
Save your money.
Frothers from both extremes disappointed.
Move on people.
Rather than do a game by game accumulator, getting an advance quote may be better, as if the streak goes on, the odds will shorten. Wins are not independent variables, winning teams carry on winning.
The figures are Liberals 32%, Conservatives 36.8%, NDP 13.7%, Bloc Quebecois 5.4%, Greens 9%.
The previous Nanos poll had it Liberals 34.2%, Conservatives 37.4%, NDP 12.8%, Bloc Quebecois 3.5%, Greens 9.3%.
Justin Trudeau still leads as preferred PM on 32% to 29% for Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer and 10% for NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh.
https://secureservercdn.net/198.71.233.47/823.910.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/2019-1445-CTV-Globe-ELXN-Ending-September-20-2019.pdf
Yes, it means Watson isn't going to be removed this week - but the message is clear that dissent will not be tolerated. And that should worry everyone.
If it is wrong to remove the whip from those Tory MPs who voted against the party a few weeks ago, it is equally wrong to try to silence those on the Labour benches who dare to espouse alternative perspectives.
Corbyn's career was built on being a serial rebel against the party line. And now he and his fellow travellers threaten those who dare to even think about doing the same.
Everyone should be worried - even if the immediate danger has gone. The threat is still there.
https://twitter.com/OwenSmith_MP/status/1175383719428927488
Paradoxes abound.
Is it any different to Tory MPs and Farage asking a country to veto an extension.
I personally don’t support the revoke policy but I hope Leavers will spare Remainers the faux outrage when their poster boy Bozo is both a pathological liar and not negotiating in good faith .
1. Revoke A50
2. Introduce PR to make it extrememly unlikely that the Tories or any other party will win a majority in future.
Think of it as their way of getting their own back on FPTP
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1175455734676557824?s=20
And far more people voted for Boris than for Juncker, in both absolute terms and percentage of the relevant geography's population.
Yes, that's the way I would do it. I'm sure that's the way to get the best odds because you could cherry pick between the firms before each game. If the winning streak continues they may refuse part of your stake as being too big but you just spread the bets around the bookies.
The problem is the psychological one. If you get to mid-December and have just a few more games to go you will be tempted to trouser the winnings and not risk any further. That would probably be wise, but if you want to continue the fun without risking the whole pool, just keep half the winnings and carry on with rest.
Good luck!
...Revoking A50 preserves the status quo. Any future government deciding to leave will still be faced with the intractable problem of how to leave and continue to trade with the EU.
That, of course "should be one of the easiest deals in history".
"English is just a Mandarin dialect, Chinese scholars claim
World Civilisation Research Association argue Shakespeare was an 'illiterate actor' and his works were in fact written by Samuel Johnson, author of the Johnson English Dictionary"
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/mandarin-chinese-english-shakespeare-world-civilization-research-association-a9097926.html
They generally get a boost during the Labour conference, but this year I sense something special.
It seems to me that it's the Corbynistas getting all their ducks in a row because they think there will be a general election before the next Lab Conf, and the range of likely outcomes could well precipitate Corbyn's departure.
In the event Labour is marmalised, he probably has to go immediately and a pro-Europen loyalist moderate would have a real chance of winning - see Thornberry's manoeuvres and Starmer's silence. Watson being acting leader and in control of the NEC would allow him power to shape the contest in their favour.
The likeliest current outcome - Labour lose a few seats and vote share but put in an 'acceptable' performance would probably buy Corbyn some time and allow them to likely ensure a succession - but still with some threat of moderate insurrection.
The top end likely outcome - another hung parliament - would keep Corbyn in situ, but probably set off manoeuvres among the Corbynista dauphins - who would begin to get irritated by the prospect of squandering their ambitions on a two-time loser. Also worth remembering that in the event of coalition/confidence talks, the Lib Dems' big non-Brexit demand is ditch Corbyn. They'd never do it if it made Watson acting leader pending an election - install a far left candidate without the baggage that makes Corbyn a non-starter, however, and it might be possible.
In all those cases, the Labour far left's cause is helped by being able to select the acting leader should Corbyn leave, by putting in place a figure who would promote their interests. In the former, it would allow them to stymie a credible moderate challenge. In the second, they could pose as unifiers. In the third, they'd ensure they have total control over every lever of power inside Labour. In coalition it puts the ball back in the Lib Dem court over refusing to deal with Corbyn.
Win, and of course none of that matters. But I think that whatever they say in public, the smarter Corbyn acolytes know it ain't gonna happen.
Keep talking nonsense like that and people might have vague ideas that your claim to be an ardent remainder might be wholly spurious. Or have you abandoned that persona yet?
This year, I think you may be right, buy talking so much about internal party rules, antisemitism, and so on I could see more bad press then good.
Brexit part and Con may also get a small boost, but the LD boost may be more retentive if a handful of poles show then in second place, it could start to become perminat.
In reality I can think of few things more conducive to Johnson getting an electoral mandate for No Deal (if that's what he wants) than a Lib Dem revival that would split the opposition vote.
I'm afraid that most politicians are quite privileged people who will be protected against the consequences of No Deal, and that - despite the self-serving rhetoric - there are only a relatively small number who really see avoiding it as their top priority.
Perhaps we should wait for Dominic Cummings to wargame stranded holidaymakers voting for the wrong party.
You're also impying that Boris is somehow encouraging the LibDem revival - which, as a unicorn, wouldn't exist. Have you seen the results of the recent elections?
Did you even read that post through before clicking 'Post Comment'?
"If a handful of poles show then in second place...."
LDs take Warsaw!
But thanks anyway - obviously I still need reminding!
the government did not see its options as being between spending £200m to help Thomas Cook with its cash shortfall or £600m to repatriate its British customers abroad.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49783911
No customers, two saleswoman and manager seemed cheerful though. Interestingly no signs up.
He became a Voodoo Pole!
This site is an absolute hoot- a must read pisstake of the liberal elite....
People here probably will not be too surprised that I live on said "Glebe Road" in the "Golden Triangle."
Edit - also haven’t read the details, but under either administration or liquidation a Gvt sponsored repatriation deal should be doable.
https://www.caa.co.uk/ATOL-protection/Consumers/About-ATOL/
https://www.abta.com/tips-and-advice/is-my-holiday-protected
https://twitter.com/ElunedAnderson/status/1175467163655843845?s=19
The £200m figure is the cash they need to get them past the end of this month, to pay bills due and renew their ATOL bond (of £100m) - with no guarantee they wouldn’t implode shortly afterwards without another £1bn cash injection.
The cost of repatriating c150k passengers is likely to be £80-£100m, most of which will be covered by ATOL and passengers’ own insurance policies. The airlift itself will be organised by the CAA and underwritten by government, who are likely to be on the hook for £10m or so that they can’t reclaim from elsewhere. It will work in the same way as the Monarch airlift that happened exactly two years ago on 2nd October 2017 - the dates are no coincidence.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7489539/amp/Camelot-comeback-Joe-Kennedy-III-38-announces-bid-Senate.html