I can't see this race ending in anything other than a Warren v Biden contest. Sanders doesn't seem to be commanding the numbers one might have expected. Nor Harris.
...I hope Boris Johnson is on the case. This is the sort of thing that can get out of control for a government with 150,000 people on holiday with the company...
DC: "BORRISSS!!!!" BJ: "Yeth, Marthter" DC: "Thomas Cook has gone bankrupt. I have to go to Washington, so you have to sort it. Rescue 150,000 stranded holidaymakers, and not - I repeat NOT - rescue one bloke called Thomas Cook. IS THAT CLEAR?" BJ: "Yeth, Marthter"
One week later. DC returns. There is a dishevelled man in DC's office
DC: "BORRISSS!!!!" BJ: "Yeth, Marthter" DC: "Who is this dishevelled man in my office?" BJ: "It's the man you told me to rethcue, Marthter" DC: Boris. I'm going to ask you just one question. Is this a man called Thomas Cook?" BJ: "Yeth, Marthter" DC: AAAARGH!
I can't see this race ending in anything other than a Warren v Biden contest. Sanders doesn't seem to be commanding the numbers one might have expected. Nor Harris.
Sanders is about where you'd expect based on last time being his high water mark, when he was the only opposition to Hillary and yet tolerated rather than attacked by her campaign.
Yes, it does look like Warren vs Biden but the first primary votes will not be cast in Iowa for another five months so there is still all to play for. Look at the Republicans last time where one after the other, the front-runners imploded.
I wonder if we'll see Biden drop some more with the whole Ukraine story. I know the provable wrongdoing is Trump's not Biden's, but the story is complicated and most of Biden's support seems to be from Dems who think everyone else is going to vote for him, so a hint of scandal seems bad, even if it's a non-scandal.
Biden looks like the winner because everyone else will back him, and so everyone will back him. As David Davis showed when favourite to succeed Michael Howard as Conservative leader, that sort of backing can be very volatile, and evaporate overnight once the aura of inevitability disappears. On the other hand, that is why Boris was elected in a landslide.
Biden looks like the winner because everyone else will back him, and so everyone will back him. As David Davis showed when favourite to succeed Michael Howard as Conservative leader, that sort of backing can be very volatile, and evaporate overnight once the aura of inevitability disappears. On the other hand, that is why Boris was elected in a landslide.
I agree, and I'm not sure how much fight he has in him: I could see him dropping out rather than grinding it out.
This potentially opens the thing up to another of the moderates beginning with the letter B, so I wouldn't yet write off Buttigeig, Booker, Beto or Baemy.
Biden looks like the winner because everyone else will back him, and so everyone will back him. As David Davis showed when favourite to succeed Michael Howard as Conservative leader, that sort of backing can be very volatile, and evaporate overnight once the aura of inevitability disappears. On the other hand, that is why Boris was elected in a landslide.
I agree, and I'm not sure how much fight he has in him: I could see him dropping out rather than grinding it out.
This potentially opens the thing up to another of the moderates beginning with the letter B, so I wouldn't yet write off Buttigeig, Booker, Beto or Baemy.
Mayor Pete is the one who adapted Gordon Brown's speech (or they both nicked it from someone else). It was plagiarising Neil Kinnock that did for that other guy 30 years ago, Joe Biden.
Beto exemplifies what we were talking about: an early front-runner who faded. Kamala Harris too: nailed on to win California until suddenly she wasn't.
Corey Booker, dunno. A great candidate on paper except that no-one wants to vote for him, or even listen to him, which is a bit of a drawback for a politician.
Mayor Pete is the one who adapted Gordon Brown's speech (or they both nicked it from someone else). It was plagiarising Neil Kinnock that did for that other guy 30 years ago, Joe Biden.
Beto exemplifies what we were talking about: an early front-runner who faded. Kamala Harris too: nailed on to win California until suddenly she wasn't.
Corey Booker, dunno. A great candidate on paper except that no-one wants to vote for him, or even listen to him, which is a bit of a drawback for a politician.
Perhaps you should top up your Amy bets.
Yup, I agree with all of that. I'm not sure about Mayor Pete: I totally fail to see the attraction, the only thing in his record is policing which was a shitshow he can't adequately defend, and I don't really understand what his supporters see in him. But the fact is the he does have a lot of dedicated supporters, and he's raised a lot of money too.
Seems funny preferring* a YouGov poll to one by another pollster, I think it is the first time in a while YouGov hasn't been the worst for Labour or at least very close. The 7 point Tory lead over Labour puts them more middle of the pack. If someone offered me a Corbyn vs Johnson election with that as the starting point I would fancy Labours chances.
It isn't the best for Labour though I think one pollsters most recent poll had a 1 point lead for the Tories over Labour. That is an outlier in the opposite way to the Opinium poll though. Which doesn't necessarily make either wrong.
*As in I just prefer the numbers produced, I have no concrete reason to write off one pollster or another as being accurate or wrong.
The British Army are to set up camp in Swindon on Monday, rumoured to be preparing for civil unrest in the event of a no-deal Brexit outcome next month.
It’s understood that the Royal Electrical and Mechanical Engineers (REME) corps are moving on to the former Clares factory opposite the Oasis Leisure Centre from the start of next week, 23 September.
REME will be able to help out if there is an unexpected pie surplus but won't be of much use otherwise.
Mayor Pete is the one who adapted Gordon Brown's speech (or they both nicked it from someone else). It was plagiarising Neil Kinnock that did for that other guy 30 years ago, Joe Biden.
Beto exemplifies what we were talking about: an early front-runner who faded. Kamala Harris too: nailed on to win California until suddenly she wasn't.
Corey Booker, dunno. A great candidate on paper except that no-one wants to vote for him, or even listen to him, which is a bit of a drawback for a politician.
Perhaps you should top up your Amy bets.
Yup, I agree with all of that. I'm not sure about Mayor Pete: I totally fail to see the attraction, the only thing in his record is policing which was a shitshow he can't adequately defend, and I don't really understand what his supporters see in him. But the fact is the he does have a lot of dedicated supporters, and he's raised a lot of money too.
Quite often the next leader of a country is the "opposite" personality of the previous one in several key ways, think Johnson-May, Trump-Obama, Obama-Bush, Brown-Blair as examples. Pete (or Warren) score very highly as opposites to Trump, far more so than Biden or Sanders for example, (although Trump is so weird you could make a case for any of them).
Mayor Pete is the one who adapted Gordon Brown's speech (or they both nicked it from someone else). It was plagiarising Neil Kinnock that did for that other guy 30 years ago, Joe Biden.
Beto exemplifies what we were talking about: an early front-runner who faded. Kamala Harris too: nailed on to win California until suddenly she wasn't.
Corey Booker, dunno. A great candidate on paper except that no-one wants to vote for him, or even listen to him, which is a bit of a drawback for a politician.
Perhaps you should top up your Amy bets.
Yup, I agree with all of that. I'm not sure about Mayor Pete: I totally fail to see the attraction, the only thing in his record is policing which was a shitshow he can't adequately defend, and I don't really understand what his supporters see in him. But the fact is the he does have a lot of dedicated supporters, and he's raised a lot of money too.
I like Pete. Comes across well. Fresh. Direct. Energetic.
Labour has to stop an election at all costs. Whatever one thinks about Brexit this is beginning to look like a vote for order or chaos. Labour looks and sounds like the party is chaotic. It has to be sorted before an election or the worse possible outcome -a majority Johnson government-looks a certainty
Comments
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/labour-suspends-sex-pest-mp-mike-hill-s6p8jzn2v
BJ: "Yeth, Marthter"
DC: "Thomas Cook has gone bankrupt. I have to go to Washington, so you have to sort it. Rescue 150,000 stranded holidaymakers, and not - I repeat NOT - rescue one bloke called Thomas Cook. IS THAT CLEAR?"
BJ: "Yeth, Marthter"
One week later. DC returns. There is a dishevelled man in DC's office
DC: "BORRISSS!!!!"
BJ: "Yeth, Marthter"
DC: "Who is this dishevelled man in my office?"
BJ: "It's the man you told me to rethcue, Marthter"
DC: Boris. I'm going to ask you just one question. Is this a man called Thomas Cook?"
BJ: "Yeth, Marthter"
DC: AAAARGH!
Yes, it does look like Warren vs Biden but the first primary votes will not be cast in Iowa for another five months so there is still all to play for. Look at the Republicans last time where one after the other, the front-runners imploded.
This potentially opens the thing up to another of the moderates beginning with the letter B, so I wouldn't yet write off Buttigeig, Booker, Beto or Baemy.
Beto exemplifies what we were talking about: an early front-runner who faded. Kamala Harris too: nailed on to win California until suddenly she wasn't.
Corey Booker, dunno. A great candidate on paper except that no-one wants to vote for him, or even listen to him, which is a bit of a drawback for a politician.
Perhaps you should top up your Amy bets.
Mark Pickup, Will Jennings and Robert Ford"
https://sotonpolitics.org/2019/09/10/house-effects-and-how-to-read-the-polling-tea-leaves/
https://twitter.com/janeosanders/status/1175534794614235136
Seems funny preferring* a YouGov poll to one by another pollster, I think it is the first time in a while YouGov hasn't been the worst for Labour or at least very close. The 7 point Tory lead over Labour puts them more middle of the pack. If someone offered me a Corbyn vs Johnson election with that as the starting point I would fancy Labours chances.
It isn't the best for Labour though I think one pollsters most recent poll had a 1 point lead for the Tories over Labour. That is an outlier in the opposite way to the Opinium poll though. Which doesn't necessarily make either wrong.
*As in I just prefer the numbers produced, I have no concrete reason to write off one pollster or another as being accurate or wrong.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1176059898490228736?s=21