Frankly, I do not believe anymore either sets of polls. [ Opinium, YouGov ] on the one hand and the rest on the other. We need a large MRP poll [ min 20000 ] to recalibrate our compass.
I don't really believe any one poll, but it is worthwhile to look at the latest average of all the polls combined IMO.
Recent machinations are certainly consistent with Jeremy Corbyn standing down in the not too distant future. @Charles mentioned doubts about Corbyn's health and it has long been rumoured that he is not enjoying leading the party. His past service reinforces the view that Corbyn is not personally ambitious.
Or it could just be a clumsy overreach by Lansman.
But three TU reps voted with Lansman. TUs don't vote accidentally. Plus all Corbyn acolytes. Maybe Corbyn left the room because he realized 2/3rd majority was not possible. It was NOT a ruthless Leftist coup. The Hard Left would have been ashamed. They reckon Momentum are a bunch of amateurs.
Although the idiot moderates have fallen for the pretence that a “review” of the role will not lead to abolition
Who says they have fallen for it? They may not what it means (if your summation is correct), they are just addicted to kicking the can to put off a hard decision, like most of our political classes.
Given that probably the least dramatic thing that may happen between now and a general election is Johnson asking for and being given an extension, and other possibilities include leaving with No Deal, the dismissal and/or conviction of the prime minister and the formation of a government of national unity, I wish I could understand why anyone thinks it is worth feeding any of these poll ratings into a seat predictor.
Because it's one of the main things we do on PB.
That doesn’t make it worthwhile!
No it's not worthwhile, but hypothesising passes the time.
Recent machinations are certainly consistent with Jeremy Corbyn standing down in the not too distant future. @Charles mentioned doubts about Corbyn's health and it has long been rumoured that he is not enjoying leading the party. His past service reinforces the view that Corbyn is not personally ambitious.
Or it could just be a clumsy overreach by Lansman.
But three TU reps voted with Lansman. TUs don't vote accidentally. Plus all Corbyn acolytes. Maybe Corbyn left the room because he realized 2/3rd majority was not possible. It was NOT a ruthless Leftist coup. The Hard Left would have been ashamed. They reckon Momentum are a bunch of amateurs.
Although the idiot moderates have fallen for the pretence that a “review” of the role will not lead to abolition
This is quite a Trumpian development. Say one thing, watch the uproar for a while, then do something less severe/insane and everybody is worn out condemning the first thing that they acquiesce. Know what else it reminds me of? Brexit. The foamers have dragged us from leave to hard brexit to no deal with the idea that we will be so glad to step back towards a "mere" hard brexit that we'll shut up. It might work, but the Lib Dem shift to revoke wasn't part of the plan and it's scared the brexit jihadis. It's also an interesting marker for those who have been successfully gaslit. Anyone saying "I'm for remain, but this remain policy is too much!" needs to shake their head a little and remember who we're dealing with.
I've got all sorts of reasons to dislike the Lib Dems, but I fucking love them for pushing back so hard on this. It's the first thing that's given me any hope in several years of politics.
Sky say Thomas Cook are meeting creditors at a City law firm at 9 am tomorrow for a final attempt at saving the company. The briefing seems to be they'll fold by the early hours of Monday at the latest if no deal is done.
If they do go it's the sort of story that will receive absurd quantities of coverage out of all proportion to either its macroeconomic or human signifigance. That said the Government handled the collapse of Monarch very well with Chris Grayling in charge. While this is of a larger scale by about 50% it's not as if the rescue effort is unprecedented.
At least it will briefly change the national conversation from Brexit.
Oh God, we will have the interviews with angry gimps complaining the government didn't fly them on private jets with gold toilets from their flea pit hotel in Aiya Napa
Most recent polls seem to agree that Labour is on about 23%. They diverge on the Con and LD shares. Opininum has the gap at 20 points, YouGov at 8.
The most recent poll from ComRes gave Labour 27%, from Deltapoll 28%, from Panelbase 28% - it's easy to be distracted by the polling firms that poll more frequently than others.
Though from a brief look at the detailed poll data I'd be more inclined to trust the headline numbers from YouGov than ComRes. Quite a few Labour/LibDem supporters in the ComRes who didn't previously vote.
Intention to vote is one of the most difficult things for pollsters . At the last GE Survation got closest because they didn’t kick out so many previous non voters from their sample .
Given how parties have changed over 7 decades I find it amazing someone could last that long in one party to begin with. How fortuitous that they changed in the exact same way as the party in all that time.
Given how parties have changed over 7 decades I find it amazing someone could last that long in one party to begin with. How fortuitous that they changed in the exact same way as the party in all that time.
You know Patrick Stewart now owns a star trek TNG themed needle and thread repair shop? It's called make it sew.
Given how parties have changed over 7 decades I find it amazing someone could last that long in one party to begin with. How fortuitous that they changed in the exact same way as the party in all that time.
If you had an even churn rate of 20% each election, over the course of 17 elections (assuming 1 every 4 years for 70 years), you'd expect 2.2% of voters to stay with the same party right through. Silly assumptions, but indicative that it's not completely bonkers to find someone who's been like that.
The Lib Dems and sundry Independents offered to pass May's deal in return for a May's Deal vs Remain referendum. The Kyle-Wilson amendment by Labour backbenchers offered the same and drew heavy support. Theresa May said No.
If Boris is to now accept what has been on the table since last Winter he's given himself no room. " Do or Die ".
He'll have to die first then conceed from a position of weakness. And as he's the PM would he resign if he lost said referendum ? Could he stay PM if we voted Remain ? The circumstances in which he agreed to a Boris' Deal vs Remain referendum are surely those that woukd gave forced him from office first.
Given how parties have changed over 7 decades I find it amazing someone could last that long in one party to begin with. How fortuitous that they changed in the exact same way as the party in all that time.
If you had an even churn rate of 20% each election, over the course of 17 elections (assuming 1 every 4 years for 70 years), you'd expect 2.2% of voters to stay with the same party right through. Silly assumptions, but indicative that it's not completely bonkers to find someone who's been like that.
Sure, but it should probably be more unusual than it is, since I bet it is a lot more than that percentage (even accepting the crude assumptions). It's football team tribalism. When someone thinks 'I am Labour/Conservative' rather than just supporting them, no wonder they justify sticking with it through all the changes - it'd be losing a part of their self identity.
The Lib Dems and sundry Independents offered to pass May's deal in return for a May's Deal vs Remain referendum. The Kyle-Wilson amendment by Labour backbenchers offered the same and drew heavy support. Theresa May said No.
If Boris is to now accept what has been on the table since last Winter he's given himself no room. " Do or Die ".
He'll have to die first then conceed from a position of weakness. And as he's the PM would he resign if he lost said referendum ? Could he stay PM if we voted Remain ? The circumstances in which he agreed to a Boris' Deal vs Remain referendum are surely those that woukd gave forced him from office first.
Do or Die was always stupid for many reasons, not least of which was he never meant it since there were plenty of ways to 'do' which he would never ever consider, just as the 'will do anything to stop no deal' crowd conveniently ignored several very easy ways to avoid it which they didn't like.
Most recent polls seem to agree that Labour is on about 23%. They diverge on the Con and LD shares. Opininum has the gap at 20 points, YouGov at 8.
The most recent poll from ComRes gave Labour 27%, from Deltapoll 28%, from Panelbase 28% - it's easy to be distracted by the polling firms that poll more frequently than others.
Though from a brief look at the detailed poll data I'd be more inclined to trust the headline numbers from YouGov than ComRes. Quite a few Labour/LibDem supporters in the ComRes who didn't previously vote.
Intention to vote is one of the most difficult things for pollsters . At the last GE Survation got closest because they didn’t kick out so many previous non voters from their sample .
And it will be a particular nightmare this time. Brexit? Disillusionment with politicians because of Brexit? Who knows?
Sky say Thomas Cook are meeting creditors at a City law firm at 9 am tomorrow for a final attempt at saving the company. The briefing seems to be they'll fold by the early hours of Monday at the latest if no deal is done.
If they do go it's the sort of story that will receive absurd quantities of coverage out of all proportion to either its macroeconomic or human signifigance. That said the Government handled the collapse of Monarch very well with Chris Grayling in charge. While this is of a larger scale by about 50% it's not as if the rescue effort is unprecedented.
At least it will briefly change the national conversation from Brexit.
Oh God, we will have the interviews with angry gimps complaining the government didn't fly them on private jets with gold toilets from their flea pit hotel in Aiya Napa
It's already started. Someone who only took the exact amount of crucial heart medication and will apparently die if their flight is delayed. They might win a Darwin Award though. Someone else will run out of nappies and wetwipes, are a " 20 min Taxi ride from the nearest town " and " we don't speak Spanish. "
Given how parties have changed over 7 decades I find it amazing someone could last that long in one party to begin with. How fortuitous that they changed in the exact same way as the party in all that time.
If you had an even churn rate of 20% each election, over the course of 17 elections (assuming 1 every 4 years for 70 years), you'd expect 2.2% of voters to stay with the same party right through. Silly assumptions, but indicative that it's not completely bonkers to find someone who's been like that.
Sure, but it should probably be more unusual than it is, since I bet it is a lot more than that percentage (even accepting the crude assumptions). It's football team tribalism. When someone thinks 'I am Labour/Conservative' rather than just supporting them, no wonder they justify sticking with it through all the changes - it'd be losing a part of their self identity.
Yeah and to be honest it's something I've never understood. I spoke to a Labour voter recently who had come around to revoke, but she said no way would she vote Lib Dem. Labour all the way. I'm a floating voter, and it feels to me such a powerful position to be in. Like how if someone seems to be taking me for granted, I'll vote for someone else. I wish people would chop and change more, the country would be in a much better state.
Sky say Thomas Cook are meeting creditors at a City law firm at 9 am tomorrow for a final attempt at saving the company. The briefing seems to be they'll fold by the early hours of Monday at the latest if no deal is done.
If they do go it's the sort of story that will receive absurd quantities of coverage out of all proportion to either its macroeconomic or human signifigance. That said the Government handled the collapse of Monarch very well with Chris Grayling in charge. While this is of a larger scale by about 50% it's not as if the rescue effort is unprecedented.
At least it will briefly change the national conversation from Brexit.
Oh God, we will have the interviews with angry gimps complaining the government didn't fly them on private jets with gold toilets from their flea pit hotel in Aiya Napa
It's already started. Someone who only took the exact amount of crucial heart medication and will apparently die if their flight is delayed. They might win a Darwin Award though. Someone else will run out of nappies and wetwipes, are a " 20 min Taxi ride from the nearest town " and " we don't speak Spanish. "
"Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn accused Israel of carrying out a genocide of the Palestinian people in a far left document which also appeared to back armed resistance to the Jewish state."
Perhaps as a good old English bloke he was being ironic rather than moronic
Most recent polls seem to agree that Labour is on about 23%. They diverge on the Con and LD shares. Opininum has the gap at 20 points, YouGov at 8.
The most recent poll from ComRes gave Labour 27%, from Deltapoll 28%, from Panelbase 28% - it's easy to be distracted by the polling firms that poll more frequently than others.
The most recent Survation also had Labour under 25%
"Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn accused Israel of carrying out a genocide of the Palestinian people in a far left document which also appeared to back armed resistance to the Jewish state."
Perhaps as a good old English bloke he was being ironic rather than moronic
Given how parties have changed over 7 decades I find it amazing someone could last that long in one party to begin with. How fortuitous that they changed in the exact same way as the party in all that time.
If you had an even churn rate of 20% each election, over the course of 17 elections (assuming 1 every 4 years for 70 years), you'd expect 2.2% of voters to stay with the same party right through. Silly assumptions, but indicative that it's not completely bonkers to find someone who's been like that.
Sure, but it should probably be more unusual than it is, since I bet it is a lot more than that percentage (even accepting the crude assumptions). It's football team tribalism. When someone thinks 'I am Labour/Conservative' rather than just supporting them, no wonder they justify sticking with it through all the changes - it'd be losing a part of their self identity.
Yeah and to be honest it's something I've never understood. I spoke to a Labour voter recently who had come around to revoke, but she said no way would she vote Lib Dem. Labour all the way. I'm a floating voter, and it feels to me such a powerful position to be in. Like how if someone seems to be taking me for granted, I'll vote for someone else. I wish people would chop and change more, the country would be in a much better state.
Parties do serve a useful purpose with broad visions for the country and all that, but yeah, given how much they can leap around the political spectrum on issue to issue anyway, even die hard fans of one ideology should find it easier than they do.
In fairness we have at least some politicians this year demonstrating courage of conviction and recognising that their political home no longer fitted. One can argue that some jumped before being pushed, but many don't even get that far, particularly the ones who bow out.
If the Conservatives are doing worse in one region than UNS suggests then they will be doing better in others to compensate.
So changing the prediction to include a 'Scotland factor' can result in the overall number of Conservatives increasing even as the number of SCONs reduces.
"Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn accused Israel of carrying out a genocide of the Palestinian people in a far left document which also appeared to back armed resistance to the Jewish state."
Perhaps as a good old English bloke he was being ironic rather than moronic
"Genocide" is too far, but not by the longest chalk. Certainly Israel is run by a racist government, is engaged in imperialist activities, has indulged in ethnic cleansing and the suppression of the votes of Arabs within its territory. But I think "genocide" is a step beyond that and Israel isn't there.
Given that probably the least dramatic thing that may happen between now and a general election is Johnson asking for and being given an extension, and other possibilities include leaving with No Deal, the dismissal and/or conviction of the prime minister and the formation of a government of national unity, I wish I could understand why anyone thinks it is worth feeding any of these poll ratings into a seat predictor.
Because it's one of the main things we do on PB.
That doesn’t make it worthwhile!
No it's not worthwhile, but hypothesising passes the time.
Given that probably the least dramatic thing that may happen between now and a general election is Johnson asking for and being given an extension, and other possibilities include leaving with No Deal, the dismissal and/or conviction of the prime minister and the formation of a government of national unity, I wish I could understand why anyone thinks it is worth feeding any of these poll ratings into a seat predictor.
Because it's one of the main things we do on PB.
That doesn’t make it worthwhile!
No it's not worthwhile, but hypothesising passes the time.
So does doing a jigsaw.
People can waste their time as they choose, certainly.
Sky say Thomas Cook are meeting creditors at a City law firm at 9 am tomorrow for a final attempt at saving the company. The briefing seems to be they'll fold by the early hours of Monday at the latest if no deal is done.
If they do go it's the sort of story that will receive absurd quantities of coverage out of all proportion to either its macroeconomic or human signifigance. That said the Government handled the collapse of Monarch very well with Chris Grayling in charge. While this is of a larger scale by about 50% it's not as if the rescue effort is unprecedented.
At least it will briefly change the national conversation from Brexit.
Oh God, we will have the interviews with angry gimps complaining the government didn't fly them on private jets with gold toilets from their flea pit hotel in Aiya Napa
It's already started. Someone who only took the exact amount of crucial heart medication and will apparently die if their flight is delayed. They might win a Darwin Award though. Someone else will run out of nappies and wetwipes, are a " 20 min Taxi ride from the nearest town " and " we don't speak Spanish. "
People. Ugh.
Did you read about Patrick Stewart getting a hearing aid fitted on his forehead, because he couldn’t capture any sounds from units on the sides? It was the last resort of the doctors...
Given that probably the least dramatic thing that may happen between now and a general election is Johnson asking for and being given an extension, and other possibilities include leaving with No Deal, the dismissal and/or conviction of the prime minister and the formation of a government of national unity, I wish I could understand why anyone thinks it is worth feeding any of these poll ratings into a seat predictor.
Because it's one of the main things we do on PB.
That doesn’t make it worthwhile!
No it's not worthwhile, but hypothesising passes the time.
So does doing a jigsaw.
"Cricket is like doing a jigsaw: a pointless way to pass the time until you die!"
Sky say Thomas Cook are meeting creditors at a City law firm at 9 am tomorrow for a final attempt at saving the company. The briefing seems to be they'll fold by the early hours of Monday at the latest if no deal is done.
If they do go it's the sort of story that will receive absurd quantities of coverage out of all proportion to either its macroeconomic or human signifigance. That said the Government handled the collapse of Monarch very well with Chris Grayling in charge. While this is of a larger scale by about 50% it's not as if the rescue effort is unprecedented.
At least it will briefly change the national conversation from Brexit.
Oh God, we will have the interviews with angry gimps complaining the government didn't fly them on private jets with gold toilets from their flea pit hotel in Aiya Napa
It's already started. Someone who only took the exact amount of crucial heart medication and will apparently die if their flight is delayed. They might win a Darwin Award though. Someone else will run out of nappies and wetwipes, are a " 20 min Taxi ride from the nearest town " and " we don't speak Spanish. "
People. Ugh.
Did you read about Patrick Stewart getting a hearing aid fitted on his forehead, because he couldn’t capture any sounds from units on the sides? It was the last resort of the doctors...
Sky say Thomas Cook are meeting creditors at a City law firm at 9 am tomorrow for a final attempt at saving the company. The briefing seems to be they'll fold by the early hours of Monday at the latest if no deal is done.
If they do go it's the sort of story that will receive absurd quantities of coverage out of all proportion to either its macroeconomic or human signifigance. That said the Government handled the collapse of Monarch very well with Chris Grayling in charge. While this is of a larger scale by about 50% it's not as if the rescue effort is unprecedented.
At least it will briefly change the national conversation from Brexit.
Oh God, we will have the interviews with angry gimps complaining the government didn't fly them on private jets with gold toilets from their flea pit hotel in Aiya Napa
It's already started. Someone who only took the exact amount of crucial heart medication and will apparently die if their flight is delayed. They might win a Darwin Award though. Someone else will run out of nappies and wetwipes, are a " 20 min Taxi ride from the nearest town " and " we don't speak Spanish. "
People. Ugh.
Did you read about Patrick Stewart getting a hearing aid fitted on his forehead, because he couldn’t capture any sounds from units on the sides? It was the last resort of the doctors...
62% of Labour Party members want Britain to become a republic, just 15% are proud of British history and only one in five would be proud to sing the national anthem. Most blame the media or Corbyn's opponents for anti-Semitism allegations.
Most Labour members polled by YouGov also want to abolish Britain's borders and abolish the nuclear deterrent and blame Britain rather than the IRA for terrorist attacks in Northern Ireland.
Uh oh. That smells like corruption. Glad to see an investigation is underway.
An investigation of a grant in June 2018, from a Department with no connection to the PM, who was a backbencher at the time. All of which is oddly listed alongside bits and pieces which may or may not have legs, from years ago. Odd.
"Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn accused Israel of carrying out a genocide of the Palestinian people in a far left document which also appeared to back armed resistance to the Jewish state."
Perhaps as a good old English bloke he was being ironic rather than moronic
"Genocide" is too far, but not by the longest chalk. Certainly Israel is run by a racist government, is engaged in imperialist activities, has indulged in ethnic cleansing and the suppression of the votes of Arabs within its territory. But I think "genocide" is a step beyond that and Israel isn't there.
Sky say Thomas Cook are meeting creditors at a City law firm at 9 am tomorrow for a final attempt at saving the company. The briefing seems to be they'll fold by the early hours of Monday at the latest if no deal is done.
If they do go it's the sort of story that will receive absurd quantities of coverage out of all proportion to either its macroeconomic or human signifigance. That said the Government handled the collapse of Monarch very well with Chris Grayling in charge. While this is of a larger scale by about 50% it's not as if the rescue effort is unprecedented.
At least it will briefly change the national conversation from Brexit.
Oh God, we will have the interviews with angry gimps complaining the government didn't fly them on private jets with gold toilets from their flea pit hotel in Aiya Napa
It's already started. Someone who only took the exact amount of crucial heart medication and will apparently die if their flight is delayed. They might win a Darwin Award though. Someone else will run out of nappies and wetwipes, are a " 20 min Taxi ride from the nearest town " and " we don't speak Spanish. "
People. Ugh.
Did you read about Patrick Stewart getting a hearing aid fitted on his forehead, because he couldn’t capture any sounds from units on the sides? It was the last resort of the doctors...
I did not
It was the final front ear.
I thought I had the worst Picard joke in the world. I was wrong.
62% of Labour Party members want Britain to become a republic, just 15% are proud of British history and only one in five would be proud to sing the national anthem. Most blame the media or Corbyn's opponents for anti-Semitism allegations.
Most Labour members polled by YouGov also want to abolish Britain's borders and abolish the nuclear deterrent and blame Britain rather than the IRA for terrorist attacks in Northern Ireland.
Given overall numbers in support of a Republic I am not surprised a high percentage of Labour members do, unfortunately a lot of people have no pride in British history and a lot of people dislike the anthem even if they are proud of this country, and it's no surprise that most think the anti-semitism allegations are not their fault.
The last three do surprise me a little though, less so on the nuclear deterrent than the other two.
"Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn accused Israel of carrying out a genocide of the Palestinian people in a far left document which also appeared to back armed resistance to the Jewish state."
Perhaps as a good old English bloke he was being ironic rather than moronic
"Genocide" is too far, but not by the longest chalk. Certainly Israel is run by a racist government, is engaged in imperialist activities, has indulged in ethnic cleansing and the suppression of the votes of Arabs within its territory. But I think "genocide" is a step beyond that and Israel isn't there.
The Lib Dems and sundry Independents offered to pass May's deal in return for a May's Deal vs Remain referendum. The Kyle-Wilson amendment by Labour backbenchers offered the same and drew heavy support. Theresa May said No.
If Boris is to now accept what has been on the table since last Winter he's given himself no room. " Do or Die ".
He'll have to die first then conceed from a position of weakness. And as he's the PM would he resign if he lost said referendum ? Could he stay PM if we voted Remain ? The circumstances in which he agreed to a Boris' Deal vs Remain referendum are surely those that woukd gave forced him from office first.
What is to stop the government resigning at the very last minute on 31/10?
Or even the week before and then blocking any alternatives?
More about adding cumulatively to the perception of Bojo presumably, same as with Corbyn. Hopefully there are forensic anthropologists on hand to sort through all their respective skeletons.
A new Canadian poll out today and taken yesterday from Nanos shows the Liberal vote down a bit since the Trudeau 'blackface' affair but the Conservative vote also down slightly, albeit by less than the Liberal vote, with the main gainers the NDP and the Bloc Quebecois.
The figures are Liberals 32%, Conservatives 36.8%, NDP 13.7%, Bloc Quebecois 5.4%, Greens 9%.
The previous Nanos poll had it Liberals 34.2%, Conservatives 37.4%, NDP 12.8%, Bloc Quebecois 3.5%, Greens 9.3%.
Justin Trudeau still leads as preferred PM on 32% to 29% for Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer and 10% for NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh.
"Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn accused Israel of carrying out a genocide of the Palestinian people in a far left document which also appeared to back armed resistance to the Jewish state."
Perhaps as a good old English bloke he was being ironic rather than moronic
"Genocide" is too far, but not by the longest chalk. Certainly Israel is run by a racist government, is engaged in imperialist activities, has indulged in ethnic cleansing and the suppression of the votes of Arabs within its territory. But I think "genocide" is a step beyond that and Israel isn't there.
Sky say Thomas Cook are meeting creditors at a City law firm at 9 am tomorrow for a final attempt at saving the company. The briefing seems to be they'll fold by the early hours of Monday at the latest if no deal is done.
If they do go it's the sort of story that will receive absurd quantities of coverage out of all proportion to either its macroeconomic or human signifigance. That said the Government handled the collapse of Monarch very well with Chris Grayling in charge. While this is of a larger scale by about 50% it's not as if the rescue effort is unprecedented.
At least it will briefly change the national conversation from Brexit.
Oh God, we will have the interviews with angry gimps complaining the government didn't fly them on private jets with gold toilets from their flea pit hotel in Aiya Napa
It's already started. Someone who only took the exact amount of crucial heart medication and will apparently die if their flight is delayed. They might win a Darwin Award though. Someone else will run out of nappies and wetwipes, are a " 20 min Taxi ride from the nearest town " and " we don't speak Spanish. "
People. Ugh.
Did you read about Patrick Stewart getting a hearing aid fitted on his forehead, because he couldn’t capture any sounds from units on the sides? It was the last resort of the doctors...
I did not
It was the final front ear.
I thought I had the worst Picard joke in the world. I was wrong.
62% of Labour Party members want Britain to become a republic, just 15% are proud of British history and only one in five would be proud to sing the national anthem. Most blame the media or Corbyn's opponents for anti-Semitism allegations.
Most Labour members polled by YouGov also want to abolish Britain's borders and abolish the nuclear deterrent and blame Britain rather than the IRA for terrorist attacks in Northern Ireland.
Given overall numbers in support of a Republic I am not surprised a high percentage of Labour members do, unfortunately a lot of people have no pride in British history and a lot of people dislike the anthem even if they are proud of this country, and it's no surprise that most think the anti-semitism allegations are not their fault.
The last three do surprise me a little though, less so on the nuclear deterrent than the other two.
The anthem needs to be ditched in favour of something a bit more uplifting ! I love the Italian National anthem ! Or perhaps we could get Benny from ABBA to compose something new ! Lol
I personally don’t mind the monarchy , it’s better than having another politician as President .
I think Harry’s great and adored Diana . The thing is the membership is only a small minority of actual Labour voters .
62% of Labour Party members want Britain to become a republic, just 15% are proud of British history and only one in five would be proud to sing the national anthem. Most blame the media or Corbyn's opponents for anti-Semitism allegations.
Most Labour members polled by YouGov also want to abolish Britain's borders and abolish the nuclear deterrent and blame Britain rather than the IRA for terrorist attacks in Northern Ireland.
Given overall numbers in support of a Republic I am not surprised a high percentage of Labour members do, unfortunately a lot of people have no pride in British history and a lot of people dislike the anthem even if they are proud of this country, and it's no surprise that most think the anti-semitism allegations are not their fault.
The last three do surprise me a little though, less so on the nuclear deterrent than the other two.
The anthem needs to be ditched in favour of something a bit more uplifting ! I love the Italian National anthem ! Or perhaps we could get Benny from ABBA to compose something new ! Lol
I personally don’t mind the monarchy , it’s better than having another politician as President .
I think Harry’s great and adored Diana . The thing is the membership is only a small minority of actual Labour voters .
62% of Labour Party members want Britain to become a republic, just 15% are proud of British history and only one in five would be proud to sing the national anthem. Most blame the media or Corbyn's opponents for anti-Semitism allegations.
Most Labour members polled by YouGov also want to abolish Britain's borders and abolish the nuclear deterrent and blame Britain rather than the IRA for terrorist attacks in Northern Ireland.
Given overall numbers in support of a Republic I am not surprised a high percentage of Labour members do, unfortunately a lot of people have no pride in British history and a lot of people dislike the anthem even if they are proud of this country, and it's no surprise that most think the anti-semitism allegations are not their fault.
The last three do surprise me a little though, less so on the nuclear deterrent than the other two.
I would imagine Labour members support for open door immigration and abolishing the monarchy will not go down well in working class Labour Leave seats
62% of Labour Party members want Britain to become a republic, just 15% are proud of British history and only one in five would be proud to sing the national anthem. Most blame the media or Corbyn's opponents for anti-Semitism allegations.
Most Labour members polled by YouGov also want to abolish Britain's borders and abolish the nuclear deterrent and blame Britain rather than the IRA for terrorist attacks in Northern Ireland.
Given overall numbers in support of a Republic I am not surprised a high percentage of Labour members do, unfortunately a lot of people have no pride in British history and a lot of people dislike the anthem even if they are proud of this country, and it's no surprise that most think the anti-semitism allegations are not their fault.
The last three do surprise me a little though, less so on the nuclear deterrent than the other two.
I would imagine Labour members support for open door immigration and abolishing the monarchy will not go down well in working class Labour Leave seats
Frankly, I do not believe anymore either sets of polls. [ Opinium, YouGov ] on the one hand and the rest on the other. We need a large MRP poll [ min 20000 ] to recalibrate our compass.
I don't really believe any one poll, but it is worthwhile to look at the latest average of all the polls combined IMO.
I can't work out how to do a properly formatted table in the comments, so I won't post all the figures, but here are the Mean (and Median) of the most recent poll from all eleven pollsters
Conservative 33 (31) Labour 26 (26) Liberal Democrat 19 (19) Brexit Party 12 (13) Green 4 (4)
I'm most surprised by the Con+BXP being roughly equal to Lab+Lib. Not what I've been conditioned to expect from the more frequent YouGov polls.
Sky say Thomas Cook are meeting creditors at a City law firm at 9 am tomorrow for a final attempt at saving the company. The briefing seems to be they'll fold by the early hours of Monday at the latest if no deal is done.
If they do go it's the sort of story that will receive absurd quantities of coverage out of all proportion to either its macroeconomic or human signifigance. That said the Government handled the collapse of Monarch very well with Chris Grayling in charge. While this is of a larger scale by about 50% it's not as if the rescue effort is unprecedented.
At least it will briefly change the national conversation from Brexit.
Oh God, we will have the interviews with angry gimps complaining the government didn't fly them on private jets with gold toilets from their flea pit hotel in Aiya Napa
It's already started. Someone who only took the exact amount of crucial heart medication and will apparently die if their flight is delayed. They might win a Darwin Award though. Someone else will run out of nappies and wetwipes, are a " 20 min Taxi ride from the nearest town " and " we don't speak Spanish. "
People. Ugh.
Did you read about Patrick Stewart getting a hearing aid fitted on his forehead, because he couldn’t capture any sounds from units on the sides? It was the last resort of the doctors...
I did not
It was the final front ear.
I thought I had the worst Picard joke in the world. I was wrong.
So sad that William Shatner has fallen to making a living from doing voiceovers for toilet cleaner ads.
62% of Labour Party members want Britain to become a republic, just 15% are proud of British history and only one in five would be proud to sing the national anthem. Most blame the media or Corbyn's opponents for anti-Semitism allegations.
Most Labour members polled by YouGov also want to abolish Britain's borders and abolish the nuclear deterrent and blame Britain rather than the IRA for terrorist attacks in Northern Ireland.
Given overall numbers in support of a Republic I am not surprised a high percentage of Labour members do, unfortunately a lot of people have no pride in British history and a lot of people dislike the anthem even if they are proud of this country, and it's no surprise that most think the anti-semitism allegations are not their fault.
The last three do surprise me a little though, less so on the nuclear deterrent than the other two.
I would imagine Labour members support for open door immigration and abolishing the monarchy will not go down well in working class Labour Leave seats
Will either be in the manifesto though?
Dosen't matter; HYUFD will just find another party somewhere in the world that has an "L" in its name and believes those things, and imagine that it must also be Labour policy.
Tactical voting could cost the Conservatives up to 60 seats at a snap general election and eject Boris Johnson from No 10, new polling has found.
Almost half of Labour supporters and an even higher proportion of Greens say they are ready to switch to the Liberal Democrats if it would help defeat the party committed to Brexit in their constituency.
More than a third of Lib Dem backers would make the opposite journey at the ballot box – potentially delivering 60 seats and a mortal blow to Mr Johnson’s hopes of winning a majority.
The poll, for the People’s Vote campaign, comes after it unveiled plans for the biggest vote-swapping drive in history, to support the best-placed candidate in more than 100 battleground seats.
“Tactical voting could damage Johnson’s prospects fatally, meaning Labour could make net gains from the Tories,” said pollster Peter Kellner, the former YouGov president.
Bloody hell: on Radio Five Live there was just an interview with someone who isn't being allowed to check out from their hotel to catch a flight because the hotel says they haven't been paid by Thomas Cook. They're effectively being "held hostage", in their words, unless they pay the hotel directly. The gates are being kept shut by security guards. In Tunisia I think.
Tactical voting could cost the Conservatives up to 60 seats at a snap general election and eject Boris Johnson from No 10, new polling has found.
Almost half of Labour supporters and an even higher proportion of Greens say they are ready to switch to the Liberal Democrats if it would help defeat the party committed to Brexit in their constituency.
More than a third of Lib Dem backers would make the opposite journey at the ballot box – potentially delivering 60 seats and a mortal blow to Mr Johnson’s hopes of winning a majority.
The poll, for the People’s Vote campaign, comes after it unveiled plans for the biggest vote-swapping drive in history, to support the best-placed candidate in more than 100 battleground seats.
“Tactical voting could damage Johnson’s prospects fatally, meaning Labour could make net gains from the Tories,” said pollster Peter Kellner, the former YouGov president.
Tactical voting could cost the Conservatives up to 60 seats at a snap general election and eject Boris Johnson from No 10, new polling has found.
Almost half of Labour supporters and an even higher proportion of Greens say they are ready to switch to the Liberal Democrats if it would help defeat the party committed to Brexit in their constituency.
More than a third of Lib Dem backers would make the opposite journey at the ballot box – potentially delivering 60 seats and a mortal blow to Mr Johnson’s hopes of winning a majority.
The poll, for the People’s Vote campaign, comes after it unveiled plans for the biggest vote-swapping drive in history, to support the best-placed candidate in more than 100 battleground seats.
“Tactical voting could damage Johnson’s prospects fatally, meaning Labour could make net gains from the Tories,” said pollster Peter Kellner, the former YouGov president.
Tactical voting could cost the Conservatives up to 60 seats at a snap general election and eject Boris Johnson from No 10, new polling has found.
Almost half of Labour supporters and an even higher proportion of Greens say they are ready to switch to the Liberal Democrats if it would help defeat the party committed to Brexit in their constituency.
More than a third of Lib Dem backers would make the opposite journey at the ballot box – potentially delivering 60 seats and a mortal blow to Mr Johnson’s hopes of winning a majority.
The poll, for the People’s Vote campaign, comes after it unveiled plans for the biggest vote-swapping drive in history, to support the best-placed candidate in more than 100 battleground seats.
“Tactical voting could damage Johnson’s prospects fatally, meaning Labour could make net gains from the Tories,” said pollster Peter Kellner, the former YouGov president.
Now, in the YouGov poll, 35 per cent of Lib Dem and 42 per cent of Green voters are ready to switch to Jeremy Corbyn‘s party if they “thought that the only parties with a realistic chance of winning in your constituency were the Conservatives or Labour”.
A bit leading.
There are some Lib Dem targets with healthy Labour scores that they'll almost certainly gain if there's 50% Labour tactical voting though like St Albans, Cheadle and Hazel Grove.
Tactical voting could cost the Conservatives up to 60 seats at a snap general election and eject Boris Johnson from No 10, new polling has found.
Almost half of Labour supporters and an even higher proportion of Greens say they are ready to switch to the Liberal Democrats if it would help defeat the party committed to Brexit in their constituency.
More than a third of Lib Dem backers would make the opposite journey at the ballot box – potentially delivering 60 seats and a mortal blow to Mr Johnson’s hopes of winning a majority.
The poll, for the People’s Vote campaign, comes after it unveiled plans for the biggest vote-swapping drive in history, to support the best-placed candidate in more than 100 battleground seats.
“Tactical voting could damage Johnson’s prospects fatally, meaning Labour could make net gains from the Tories,” said pollster Peter Kellner, the former YouGov president.
Could there not be Tactical voting between Con and Brexit Party?
It may be less or at least less effective, I don't know but to consider that only one side will tactical vote is not a goo prediction tool.
The problem for the Tories is that a lot of Brexit Party supporters are culturally accustomed to voting Labour in previous times. It's difficult for them to get in the mindset of voting tactically for the Conservatives.
Tactical voting could cost the Conservatives up to 60 seats at a snap general election and eject Boris Johnson from No 10, new polling has found.
Almost half of Labour supporters and an even higher proportion of Greens say they are ready to switch to the Liberal Democrats if it would help defeat the party committed to Brexit in their constituency.
More than a third of Lib Dem backers would make the opposite journey at the ballot box – potentially delivering 60 seats and a mortal blow to Mr Johnson’s hopes of winning a majority.
The poll, for the People’s Vote campaign, comes after it unveiled plans for the biggest vote-swapping drive in history, to support the best-placed candidate in more than 100 battleground seats.
“Tactical voting could damage Johnson’s prospects fatally, meaning Labour could make net gains from the Tories,” said pollster Peter Kellner, the former YouGov president.
Could there not be Tactical voting between Con and Brexit Party?
It may be less or at least less effective, I don't know but to consider that only one side will tactical vote is not a goo prediction tool.
The problem for the Tories is that a lot of Brexit Party supporters are culturally accustomed to voting Labour in previous times. It's difficult for them to get in the mindset of voting tactically for the Conservatives.
More Brexit Party voters voted Tory in 2017 than Labour on current polls
I hope Boris Johnson is on the case. This is the sort of thing that can get out of control for a government with 150,000 people on holiday with the company.
62% of Labour Party members want Britain to become a republic, just 15% are proud of British history and only one in five would be proud to sing the national anthem. Most blame the media or Corbyn's opponents for anti-Semitism allegations.
Most Labour members polled by YouGov also want to abolish Britain's borders and abolish the nuclear deterrent and blame Britain rather than the IRA for terrorist attacks in Northern Ireland.
Given overall numbers in support of a Republic I am not surprised a high percentage of Labour members do, unfortunately a lot of people have no pride in British history and a lot of people dislike the anthem even if they are proud of this country, and it's no surprise that most think the anti-semitism allegations are not their fault.
The last three do surprise me a little though, less so on the nuclear deterrent than the other two.
I would imagine Labour members support for open door immigration and abolishing the monarchy will not go down well in working class Labour Leave seats
62% of Labour Party members want Britain to become a republic, just 15% are proud of British history and only one in five would be proud to sing the national anthem. Most blame the media or Corbyn's opponents for anti-Semitism allegations.
Most Labour members polled by YouGov also want to abolish Britain's borders and abolish the nuclear deterrent and blame Britain rather than the IRA for terrorist attacks in Northern Ireland.
Given overall numbers in support of a Republic I am not surprised a high percentage of Labour members do, unfortunately a lot of people have no pride in British history and a lot of people dislike the anthem even if they are proud of this country, and it's no surprise that most think the anti-semitism allegations are not their fault.
The last three do surprise me a little though, less so on the nuclear deterrent than the other two.
I would imagine Labour members support for open door immigration and abolishing the monarchy will not go down well in working class Labour Leave seats
what does abolish britains borders mean?
No border controls or restrictions on migration to the UK
Tactical voting could cost the Conservatives up to 60 seats at a snap general election and eject Boris Johnson from No 10, new polling has found.
Almost half of Labour supporters and an even higher proportion of Greens say they are ready to switch to the Liberal Democrats if it would help defeat the party committed to Brexit in their constituency.
More than a third of Lib Dem backers would make the opposite journey at the ballot box – potentially delivering 60 seats and a mortal blow to Mr Johnson’s hopes of winning a majority.
The poll, for the People’s Vote campaign, comes after it unveiled plans for the biggest vote-swapping drive in history, to support the best-placed candidate in more than 100 battleground seats.
“Tactical voting could damage Johnson’s prospects fatally, meaning Labour could make net gains from the Tories,” said pollster Peter Kellner, the former YouGov president.
Could there not be Tactical voting between Con and Brexit Party?
It may be less or at least less effective, I don't know but to consider that only one side will tactical vote is not a goo prediction tool.
The problem for the Tories is that a lot of Brexit Party supporters are culturally accustomed to voting Labour in previous times. It's difficult for them to get in the mindset of voting tactically for the Conservatives.
More Brexit Party voters voted Tory in 2017 than Labour on current polls
Though they have moved away for a reason, and despite the new leader and hard line on Brexit.
I wouldn't put too much weight on seat projections until YouGov do another seat based analysis.
62% of Labour Party members want Britain to become a republic, just 15% are proud of British history and only one in five would be proud to sing the national anthem. Most blame the media or Corbyn's opponents for anti-Semitism allegations.
Most Labour members polled by YouGov also want to abolish Britain's borders and abolish the nuclear deterrent and blame Britain rather than the IRA for terrorist attacks in Northern Ireland.
Given overall numbers in support of a Republic I am not surprised a high percentage of Labour members do, unfortunately a lot of people have no pride in British history and a lot of people dislike the anthem even if they are proud of this country, and it's no surprise that most think the anti-semitism allegations are not their fault.
The last three do surprise me a little though, less so on the nuclear deterrent than the other two.
I would imagine Labour members support for open door immigration and abolishing the monarchy will not go down well in working class Labour Leave seats
what does abolish britains borders mean?
No border controls
that's not the same as abolishing borders so would you like to edit your previous comment
The findings about tactical voting just push these poll-based seat projections even further into the realms of fantasy. A complete waste of time.
No they don't as most LD voters will clearly not vote Corbyn Labour even in Labour v Tory marginal seats.
The only difference they might make is the LDs might gain a few more seats from the Tories than UNS suggests as more Labour voters are willing to tactically vote LD than vice-versa
Now, in the YouGov poll, 35 per cent of Lib Dem and 42 per cent of Green voters are ready to switch to Jeremy Corbyn‘s party if they “thought that the only parties with a realistic chance of winning in your constituency were the Conservatives or Labour”.
A bit leading.
There are some Lib Dem targets with healthy Labour scores that they'll almost certainly gain if there's 50% Labour tactical voting though like St Albans, Cheadle and Hazel Grove.
I'll post this again 'cos I love it and is an excellent comment on today's shenanigans
62% of Labour Party members want Britain to become a republic, just 15% are proud of British history and only one in five would be proud to sing the national anthem. Most blame the media or Corbyn's opponents for anti-Semitism allegations.
Most Labour members polled by YouGov also want to abolish Britain's borders and abolish the nuclear deterrent and blame Britain rather than the IRA for terrorist attacks in Northern Ireland.
Given overall numbers in support of a Republic I am not surprised a high percentage of Labour members do, unfortunately a lot of people have no pride in British history and a lot of people dislike the anthem even if they are proud of this country, and it's no surprise that most think the anti-semitism allegations are not their fault.
The last three do surprise me a little though, less so on the nuclear deterrent than the other two.
I would imagine Labour members support for open door immigration and abolishing the monarchy will not go down well in working class Labour Leave seats
what does abolish britains borders mean?
No border controls
that's not the same as abolishing borders so would you like to edit your previous comment
No I would not as there is no difference, the question asked about abolishing Britain's borders and that means as I said no border controls.
62% of Labour Party members want Britain to become a republic, just 15% are proud of British history and only one in five would be proud to sing the national anthem. Most blame the media or Corbyn's opponents for anti-Semitism allegations.
Most Labour members polled by YouGov also want to abolish Britain's borders and abolish the nuclear deterrent and blame Britain rather than the IRA for terrorist attacks in Northern Ireland.
Given overall numbers in support of a Republic I am not surprised a high percentage of Labour members do, unfortunately a lot of people have no pride in British history and a lot of people dislike the anthem even if they are proud of this country, and it's no surprise that most think the anti-semitism allegations are not their fault.
The last three do surprise me a little though, less so on the nuclear deterrent than the other two.
I would imagine Labour members support for open door immigration and abolishing the monarchy will not go down well in working class Labour Leave seats
what does abolish britains borders mean?
No border controls
that's not the same as abolishing borders so would you like to edit your previous comment
No I would not as there is no difference, the question asked about abolishing Britain's borders and that means as I said no border controls.
The findings about tactical voting just push these poll-based seat projections even further into the realms of fantasy. A complete waste of time.
No they don't as most LD voters will clearly not vote Corbyn Labour even in Labour v Tory marginal seats.
The only difference they might make is the LDs might gain a few more seats from the Tories than UNS suggests as more Labour voters are willing to tactically vote LD than vice-versa
Well, YouGov estimates it could cost the Tories up to 60 seats. No doubt you know better, as always.
But even if you could ignore the likely effect of tactical voting, you'd still be stuck with the fact that the political situation will have changed dramatically by the time of the election. We'll either have left the EU or we'll have extended, and whichever of those happens will potentially have a huge effect on party support. Obsessing over the current polls is just as much of a waste of time as it was one, two, three or four months ago.
The findings about tactical voting just push these poll-based seat projections even further into the realms of fantasy. A complete waste of time.
No they don't as most LD voters will clearly not vote Corbyn Labour even in Labour v Tory marginal seats.
The only difference they might make is the LDs might gain a few more seats from the Tories than UNS suggests as more Labour voters are willing to tactically vote LD than vice-versa
Well, YouGov estimates it could cost the Tories up to 60 seats. No doubt you know better, as always.
But even if you could ignore the likely effect of tactical voting, you'd still be stuck with the fact that the political situation will have changed dramatically by the time of the election. We'll either have left the EU or we'll have extended, and whichever of those happens will potentially have a huge effect on party support. Obsessing over the current polls is just as much of a waste of time as it was one, two, three or four months ago.
No Peter Kellner whose wife is a former EU commissioner and is a diehard Remainer 'estimates' the raw data does not suggest that clearly at all especially as 2/3 of LD voters would refuse to vote for Corbyn Labour in Labour v Tory marginals the poll says and also as it ignores Brexit Party tactical voting for the Tories (given Brexit Party voters overwhelmingly prefer Boris to Corbyn as PM on current polling).
We won't have left without a Deal as Parliament has legislated against that and Boris will refuse to extend under any circumstances at all, including going into opposition rather than extending and a Deal is unlikely in this Parliament given the EU will not remove the backstop and the DUP will vote against a NI only backstop and not enough Labour MPs will vote for the Withdrawal Agreement
Was at a wedding where I didn't have a +1. Tested the Tory power pose. Did my best George Osborne impression. It went down better than my very low expectations, but that could be the gun talking. The sexy bridesmaid definitely wanted a piece, I put that down to the power pose, there's no way it would have happened without it!
I hope Boris Johnson is on the case. This is the sort of thing that can get out of control for a government with 150,000 people on holiday with the company.
Perhaps Boris can arrange free accommodation by announcing they are all spies, like he did for Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe.
To be serious, this is another reason, besides the costs, for the government to intervene. As suggested earlier, Number 10 is probably, and quite cynically, considering the electoral impact.
I wonder if we'll see Biden drop some more with the whole Ukraine story. I know the provable wrongdoing is Trump's not Biden's, but the story is complicated and most of Biden's support seems to be from Dems who think everyone else is going to vote for him, so a hint of scandal seems bad, even if it's a non-scandal.
Comments
Know what else it reminds me of? Brexit. The foamers have dragged us from leave to hard brexit to no deal with the idea that we will be so glad to step back towards a "mere" hard brexit that we'll shut up.
It might work, but the Lib Dem shift to revoke wasn't part of the plan and it's scared the brexit jihadis.
It's also an interesting marker for those who have been successfully gaslit. Anyone saying "I'm for remain, but this remain policy is too much!" needs to shake their head a little and remember who we're dealing with.
I've got all sorts of reasons to dislike the Lib Dems, but I fucking love them for pushing back so hard on this. It's the first thing that's given me any hope in several years of politics.
It's called make it sew.
Silly assumptions, but indicative that it's not completely bonkers to find someone who's been like that.
If Boris is to now accept what has been on the table since last Winter he's given himself no room. " Do or Die ".
He'll have to die first then conceed from a position of weakness. And as he's the PM would he resign if he lost said referendum ? Could he stay PM if we voted Remain ? The circumstances in which he agreed to a Boris' Deal vs Remain referendum are surely those that woukd gave forced him from office first.
I'm a floating voter, and it feels to me such a powerful position to be in. Like how if someone seems to be taking me for granted, I'll vote for someone else. I wish people would chop and change more, the country would be in a much better state.
Anyone surprised?
"Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn accused Israel of carrying out a genocide of the Palestinian people in a far left document which also appeared to back armed resistance to the Jewish state."
Perhaps as a good old English bloke he was being ironic rather than moronic
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2654710
In fairness we have at least some politicians this year demonstrating courage of conviction and recognising that their political home no longer fitted. One can argue that some jumped before being pushed, but many don't even get that far, particularly the ones who bow out.
So changing the prediction to include a 'Scotland factor' can result in the overall number of Conservatives increasing even as the number of SCONs reduces.
But I think "genocide" is a step beyond that and Israel isn't there.
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Embargoed poll of Labour members until midnight...
https://www.thomascookgroup.com/investors/insight_external_assest/Thomas_Cook_AR_2018_web.pdf
It had net assets of £291m but valued 'goodwill' at nearly ten times that amount.
And the directors seem to have been getting well paid for a business which was losing money.
Most Labour members polled by YouGov also want to abolish Britain's borders and abolish the nuclear deterrent and blame Britain rather than the IRA for terrorist attacks in Northern Ireland.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EFBVSq9WsAA05Xk?format=jpg&name=large
The last three do surprise me a little though, less so on the nuclear deterrent than the other two.
Or even the week before and then blocking any alternatives?
https://ipolitics.ca/2019/09/21/liberals-slip-in-new-mainstreet-polling-numbers/
I personally don’t mind the monarchy , it’s better than having another politician as President .
I think Harry’s great and adored Diana . The thing is the membership is only a small minority of actual Labour voters .
Conservative 33 (31)
Labour 26 (26)
Liberal Democrat 19 (19)
Brexit Party 12 (13)
Green 4 (4)
I'm most surprised by the Con+BXP being roughly equal to Lab+Lib. Not what I've been conditioned to expect from the more frequent YouGov polls.
Almost half of Labour supporters and an even higher proportion of Greens say they are ready to switch to the Liberal Democrats if it would help defeat the party committed to Brexit in their constituency.
More than a third of Lib Dem backers would make the opposite journey at the ballot box – potentially delivering 60 seats and a mortal blow to Mr Johnson’s hopes of winning a majority.
The poll, for the People’s Vote campaign, comes after it unveiled plans for the biggest vote-swapping drive in history, to support the best-placed candidate in more than 100 battleground seats.
“Tactical voting could damage Johnson’s prospects fatally, meaning Labour could make net gains from the Tories,” said pollster Peter Kellner, the former YouGov president.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-poll-boris-johnson-conservatives-brexit-lib-dems-labour-a9114826.html?amp
https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/1175539855167807492?s=20
Have the questions asked been publicised yet? And the order they were asked in?
Could there not be Tactical voting between Con and Brexit Party?
It may be less or at least less effective, I don't know but to consider that only one side will tactical vote is not a goo prediction tool.
So the relevant factor is any change in the amount of tactical voting vs 2017.
A bit leading.
There are some Lib Dem targets with healthy Labour scores that they'll almost certainly gain if there's 50% Labour tactical voting though like St Albans, Cheadle and Hazel Grove.
And a little googling shows that there were plenty of claims about huge tactical voting in 2017.
https://twitter.com/SimonCalder/status/1175549865780293632
I wouldn't put too much weight on seat projections until YouGov do another seat based analysis.
The only difference they might make is the LDs might gain a few more seats from the Tories than UNS suggests as more Labour voters are willing to tactically vote LD than vice-versa
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49783047
https://youtu.be/wTxUPXOMhq8
But even if you could ignore the likely effect of tactical voting, you'd still be stuck with the fact that the political situation will have changed dramatically by the time of the election. We'll either have left the EU or we'll have extended, and whichever of those happens will potentially have a huge effect on party support. Obsessing over the current polls is just as much of a waste of time as it was one, two, three or four months ago.
We won't have left without a Deal as Parliament has legislated against that and Boris will refuse to extend under any circumstances at all, including going into opposition rather than extending and a Deal is unlikely in this Parliament given the EU will not remove the backstop and the DUP will vote against a NI only backstop and not enough Labour MPs will vote for the Withdrawal Agreement
Yes, really.
To be serious, this is another reason, besides the costs, for the government to intervene. As suggested earlier, Number 10 is probably, and quite cynically, considering the electoral impact.
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2019/09/22/iowa-poll-election-2020-iowa-caucus-elizabeth-warren-joe-biden-bernie-sanders-democrat-candidates/2370015001/
Warren 22%
Biden 20%
Sanders 11%
Buttigieg 9%
Harris 6%
Booker 3%
KLOBUCHAR 3%
Gabbard 2%
O’Rourke 2%
Steyer 2%
Yang 2%
Bullock 1%
Castro 1%
Delaney 1%