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Are you seriously projecting the actions of a party in one country to an unrelated party in another country because the names are similar? That's some pretty impressive dimwittery, even for a notorious thicko like you.HYUFD said:
They may not introduce PR if they get a majority under FPTP, the Trudeau experience suggests Liberals are all for PR in opposition but as soon as they win a majority under FPTP they dump it rather than risk having to share power with parties to their left or right.Benpointer said:
You seem to be forgetting that in the unlikely event of a LibDem majority under FPTP they will:Gabs2 said:
It is exactly the same as the Faragists' tactics, which is to say, reprehensible. Lobbying foreign leaders over the heads of Her Majesty's government to help out your own political faction should be off limits. All this does is further delegitimize a successful revoke push. Even if they get it, the Tories will take us out of the EU with no further referendum the next time they get a majority.nico67 said:
Big deal . The Lib Dems want to stop Brexit. So why would anyone be shocked that they’ve put that case .TGOHF said:
Is it any different to Tory MPs and Farage asking a country to veto an extension.
I personally don’t support the revoke policy but I hope Leavers will spare Remainers the faux outrage when their poster boy Bozo is both a pathological liar and not negotiating in good faith .
1. Revoke A50
2. Introduce PR to make it extrememly unlikely that the Tories or any other party will win a majority in future.
Think of it as their way of getting their own back on FPTP
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Wait till you see the Liberal Democrats in Russia.Noo said:
Are you seriously projecting the actions of a party in one country to an unrelated party in another country because the names are similar? That's some pretty impressive dimwittery, even for a notorious thicko like you.HYUFD said:
They may not introduce PR if they get a majority under FPTP, the Trudeau experience suggests Liberals are all for PR in opposition but as soon as they win a majority under FPTP they dump it rather than risk having to share power with parties to their left or right.Benpointer said:
You seem to be forgetting that in the unlikely event of a LibDem majority under FPTP they will:Gabs2 said:
It is exactly the same as the Faragists' tactics, which is to say, reprehensible. Lobbying foreign leaders over the heads of Her Majesty's government to help out your own political faction should be off limits. All this does is further delegitimize a successful revoke push. Even if they get it, the Tories will take us out of the EU with no further referendum the next time they get a majority.nico67 said:
Big deal . The Lib Dems want to stop Brexit. So why would anyone be shocked that they’ve put that case .TGOHF said:
Is it any different to Tory MPs and Farage asking a country to veto an extension.
I personally don’t support the revoke policy but I hope Leavers will spare Remainers the faux outrage when their poster boy Bozo is both a pathological liar and not negotiating in good faith .
1. Revoke A50
2. Introduce PR to make it extrememly unlikely that the Tories or any other party will win a majority in future.
Think of it as their way of getting their own back on FPTP0 -
Typical of mainstream journalism on anything related to aviation - they don’t know what they don’t know, to the point that they can’t even do basic maths and see that £600m divided by 150,000 means they’ll all be flying home by private bizjet!ab195 said:
Thanks, that makes substantially more sense. Also does rather highlight the danger of drawing too many conclusions from figures out of context.Sandpit said:
The £600m figure includes the cost of refunding the entire forward book of TC customers, which is mostly already insured via ATOL.ab195 said:
The BBC says 150,000 Brits are on holiday with it, and also quotes the £600m figure. Does nobody question these things? £4000 per person to get them home from, by definition, easily reachable holiday destinations? We also know a large company that was leasing a lot of a/c is about to go out of business, leaving those serviceable a/c available and the leasing company desperate for cash.RobD said:
It’d cost half a billion to bring everyone home?DecrepitJohnL said:
On yesterday's thread it was suggested that bailing out Thomas Cook was the cheap option at £200 million as it would cost two or three times that to bring everyone home. In Europe it is common for the state to part-own private companies. Put those two things together and it does not seem too outrageous.Yellow_Submarine said:I see the Labour Front Bench has called for HMG to take an equity stake in Thomas Cook. Interesting times.
Perhaps we should wait for Dominic Cummings to wargame stranded holidaymakers voting for the wrong party.
The £200m figure is the cash they need to get them past the end of this month, to pay bills due and renew their ATOL bond (of £100m) - with no guarantee they wouldn’t implode shortly afterwards without another £1bn cash injection.
The cost of repatriating c150k passengers is likely to be £80-£100m, most of which will be covered by ATOL and passengers’ own insurance policies. The airlift itself will be organised by the CAA and underwritten by government, who are likely to be on the hook for £10m or so that they can’t reclaim from elsewhere. It will work in the same way as the Monarch airlift that happened exactly two years ago on 2nd October 2017 - the dates are no coincidence.
Long thread running in pilots’ forum at https://www.pprune.org/airlines-airports-routes/599819-thomas-cook-2-a-49.html - but bear in mind that a number of the posters on that forum are about to lose their jobs as TC collapses.
After the speculation last night, it now could be tomorrow night the plug gets pulled - at a carefully chosen time when as many aircraft as possible are on the ground at home bases.0 -
A50 requires the EU to negotiate a deal. How regularly do MEPs urge the Council / Commission to break its own treaty?TGOHF said:0 -
Evening all
The big polling news from Canada isn't the rolling Nanos and Mainstreet Research daily polls though both have shown a move to the Conservatives from the Liberals.
We now have an Ontario regional poll - the significance of Ontario is it has 121 of the 338 ridings so rather more than a third of the total. The Liberal majority last time (and indeed on all other occasions) has been built on a strong performance in Ontario backed by a good result in Quebec.
In 2015 Justin Trudeau's Liberals won 45% of the vote and 80 seats, the Conservatives polled 35% for 33 seats and the NDP got 8 seats with 17%.
The overnight Campaign Research poll puts the Conservatives on 39% (+4) and the Liberals on 35% (-10) so a healthy 7% swing for Andrew Scheer. The NDP has 12% (-5) and the Greens 10% (+7). I reckon that swing will deliver 20-25 seats for Andrew Scheer and re-enforces my view that Trudeau is going to lose his majority but Scheer isn't yet in a position to win one for the Conservatives.
As an example when Harper won in 2011 the Conservatives won 45% of the Ontario vote and 73 of the 106 seats with the NDP and Liberals on 25% each. Scheer doesn't yet have the vote share or the vote lead Harper enjoyed in Ontario when he won a 22 seat majority in the Canadian Parliament.
It's been a disastrous start for Trudeau, no question, but I think he looks more likely to lose his majority than Scheer is to win a majority and it may be the nDP collapse will end up helping the Liberals stay in power but there's a way to go yet.0 -
No, he is making the sensible point that to change FPTP, you first must win under FPTP.Noo said:
Are you seriously projecting the actions of a party in one country to an unrelated party in another country because the names are similar? That's some pretty impressive dimwittery, even for a notorious thicko like you.HYUFD said:
They may not introduce PR if they get a majority under FPTP, the Trudeau experience suggests Liberals are all for PR in opposition but as soon as they win a majority under FPTP they dump it rather than risk having to share power with parties to their left or right.Benpointer said:
You seem to be forgetting that in the unlikely event of a LibDem majority under FPTP they will:Gabs2 said:
It is exactly the same as the Faragists' tactics, which is to say, reprehensible. Lobbying foreign leaders over the heads of Her Majesty's government to help out your own political faction should be off limits. All this does is further delegitimize a successful revoke push. Even if they get it, the Tories will take us out of the EU with no further referendum the next time they get a majority.nico67 said:
Big deal . The Lib Dems want to stop Brexit. So why would anyone be shocked that they’ve put that case .TGOHF said:
Is it any different to Tory MPs and Farage asking a country to veto an extension.
I personally don’t support the revoke policy but I hope Leavers will spare Remainers the faux outrage when their poster boy Bozo is both a pathological liar and not negotiating in good faith .
1. Revoke A50
2. Introduce PR to make it extrememly unlikely that the Tories or any other party will win a majority in future.
Think of it as their way of getting their own back on FPTP
And, if you are winning under FPTP, you tend to see its benefits (vide Blair as well as Trudeau).
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That's terrible!Scott_P said:
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Why are Opinium and YouGov so vastly different to other pollsters. This has to be about methodology. One group is badly wrong.Scott_P said:
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Slogan: "Freedom, Patriotism, Law"No_Offence_Alan said:
Wait till you see the Liberal Democrats in Russia.Noo said:
Are you seriously projecting the actions of a party in one country to an unrelated party in another country because the names are similar? That's some pretty impressive dimwittery, even for a notorious thicko like you.HYUFD said:
They may not introduce PR if they get a majority under FPTP, the Trudeau experience suggests Liberals are all for PR in opposition but as soon as they win a majority under FPTP they dump it rather than risk having to share power with parties to their left or right.Benpointer said:
You seem to be forgetting that in the unlikely event of a LibDem majority under FPTP they will:Gabs2 said:
It is exactly the same as the Faragists' tactics, which is to say, reprehensible. Lobbying foreign leaders over the heads of Her Majesty's government to help out your own political faction should be off limits. All this does is further delegitimize a successful revoke push. Even if they get it, the Tories will take us out of the EU with no further referendum the next time they get a majority.nico67 said:
Big deal . The Lib Dems want to stop Brexit. So why would anyone be shocked that they’ve put that case .TGOHF said:
Is it any different to Tory MPs and Farage asking a country to veto an extension.
I personally don’t support the revoke policy but I hope Leavers will spare Remainers the faux outrage when their poster boy Bozo is both a pathological liar and not negotiating in good faith .
1. Revoke A50
2. Introduce PR to make it extrememly unlikely that the Tories or any other party will win a majority in future.
Think of it as their way of getting their own back on FPTP
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No doubt someone will be along in a minute to say under Flavible that means a Hung Parliament with Lib Dems as kingmakers with a record number of seats. 😂Scott_P said:
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Not necessarily. Differential turnout models could explain a lot of it. And they aren't right or wrong because polls aren't predictions.surbiton19 said:
Why are Opinium and YouGov so vastly different to other pollsters. This has to be about methodology. One group is badly wrong.Scott_P said:1 -
Under Flavible that means a Hung Parliament with Lib Dems as kingmakers with a record number of seatsScott_P said:
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A good time to try and escape . Do you have any EU connections in terms of family ! At this point Bozo could decapitate Bambi on live tv whilst at the same time ordering a missile strike on a school and still the voters will flock to him !The_Taxman said:0 -
I do think, were the LDs to win a landslide majority, they would use the five years of the elected dictatorship to implement a truly radical programme of legislation - hopefully as radical as the Asquith Government of blessed memory.HYUFD said:
Two words, tuition fees shows how LDs can dispense with promises when needed
I admire and respect your cynicism but I'd like to think the introduction of STV for all local elections would be immediate and for Westminster in time. The impact of such a move would be to break the party system as it stands but new groupings of parties would emerge including a centre-left bloc and a centre-right bloc.0 -
Oh dear, what a shame, no backward socialism for us! How ever will we cope?The_Taxman said:0 -
Brexitism is socialismblueblue said:
Oh dear, what a shame, no backward socialism for us! How ever will we cope?The_Taxman said:0 -
For Labour it is ....The_Taxman said:2 -
Except the main movement since the blackface affair has been from the Liberals to the NDP.stodge said:Evening all
The big polling news from Canada isn't the rolling Nanos and Mainstreet Research daily polls though both have shown a move to the Conservatives from the Liberals.
We now have an Ontario regional poll - the significance of Ontario is it has 121 of the 338 ridings so rather more than a third of the total. The Liberal majority last time (and indeed on all other occasions) has been built on a strong performance in Ontario backed by a good result in Quebec.
In 2015 Justin Trudeau's Liberals won 45% of the vote and 80 seats, the Conservatives polled 35% for 33 seats and the NDP got 8 seats with 17%.
The overnight Campaign Research poll puts the Conservatives on 39% (+4) and the Liberals on 35% (-10) so a healthy 7% swing for Andrew Scheer. The NDP has 12% (-5) and the Greens 10% (+7). I reckon that swing will deliver 20-25 seats for Andrew Scheer and re-enforces my view that Trudeau is going to lose his majority but Scheer isn't yet in a position to win one for the Conservatives.
As an example when Harper won in 2011 the Conservatives won 45% of the Ontario vote and 73 of the 106 seats with the NDP and Liberals on 25% each. Scheer doesn't yet have the vote share or the vote lead Harper enjoyed in Ontario when he won a 22 seat majority in the Canadian Parliament.
It's been a disastrous start for Trudeau, no question, but I think he looks more likely to lose his majority than Scheer is to win a majority and it may be the nDP collapse will end up helping the Liberals stay in power but there's a way to go yet.
The latest Nanos poll today shows the NDP up along with the BQ with the Liberals down and the Conservatives also a little bit down compared to the previous Nanos poll.
The Ontario poll reflects the swing to the Tories since 2015 and again tells us Trudeau is likely to lose his majority but Scheer is unlikely to win a majority but it does not tell us anything about the blackface impact unlike the rolling Nanos polling0 -
LOL - A lib dem can post THAT with a straight face....PClipp said:
You are unusually cynical this afternoon, Mr HY. It is the Conservatives who make promises when they are campaigning for votes, and then go back on those promises.HYUFD said:
They may not introduce PR if they get a majority under FPTP, the Trudeau experience suggests Liberals are all for PR in opposition but as soon as they win a majority under FPTP they dump it rather than risk having to share power with parties to their left or right.Benpointer said:
You seem to be forgetting that in the unlikely event of a LibDem majority under FPTP they will:Gabs2 said:
It is exactly the same as the Faragists' tactics, which is to say, reprehensible. Lobbying foreign leaders over the heads of Her Majesty's government to help out your own political faction should be off limits. All this does is further delegitimize a successful revoke push. Even if they get it, the Tories will take us out of the EU with no further referendum the next time they get a majority.nico67 said:
Big deal . The Lib Dems want to stop Brexit. So why would anyone be shocked that they’ve put that case .TGOHF said:
Is it any different to Tory MPs and Farage asking a country to veto an extension.
I personally don’t support the revoke policy but I hope Leavers will spare Remainers the faux outrage when their poster boy Bozo is both a pathological liar and not negotiating in good faith .
1. Revoke A50
2. Introduce PR to make it extrememly unlikely that the Tories or any other party will win a majority in future.
Think of it as their way of getting their own back on FPTP
1 -
Despite your continued brain dead attempts to get as many insults as possible into a post without saying a single thing of interest, my point was of course entirely relevant as before they won a majority in 2015 under FPTP Trudeau's Liberals were fully committed to PR.Noo said:
Are you seriously projecting the actions of a party in one country to an unrelated party in another country because the names are similar? That's some pretty impressive dimwittery, even for a notorious thicko like you.HYUFD said:
They may not introduce PR if they get a majority under FPTP, the Trudeau experience suggests Liberals are all for PR in opposition but as soon as they win a majority under FPTP they dump it rather than risk having to share power with parties to their left or right.Benpointer said:
You seem to be forgetting that in the unlikely event of a LibDem majority under FPTP they will:Gabs2 said:
It is exactly the same as the Faragists' tactics, which is to say, reprehensible. Lobbying foreign leaders over the heads of Her Majesty's government to help out your own political faction should be off limits. All this does is further delegitimize a successful revoke push. Even if they get it, the Tories will take us out of the EU with no further referendum the next time they get a majority.nico67 said:
Big deal . The Lib Dems want to stop Brexit. So why would anyone be shocked that they’ve put that case .TGOHF said:
Is it any different to Tory MPs and Farage asking a country to veto an extension.
I personally don’t support the revoke policy but I hope Leavers will spare Remainers the faux outrage when their poster boy Bozo is both a pathological liar and not negotiating in good faith .
1. Revoke A50
2. Introduce PR to make it extrememly unlikely that the Tories or any other party will win a majority in future.
Think of it as their way of getting their own back on FPTP
If as is likely they lose that majority they may go back to it but that does not change the point1 -
You realise of course that were the Lib Dems to win a majority under FPTP and then introduce PR that would mean hundreds of newly elected MPs would suddenly find themselves unable to win next time around?stodge said:
I do think, were the LDs to win a landslide majority, they would use the five years of the elected dictatorship to implement a truly radical programme of legislation - hopefully as radical as the Asquith Government of blessed memory.HYUFD said:
Two words, tuition fees shows how LDs can dispense with promises when needed
I admire and respect your cynicism but I'd like to think the introduction of STV for all local elections would be immediate and for Westminster in time. The impact of such a move would be to break the party system as it stands but new groupings of parties would emerge including a centre-left bloc and a centre-right bloc.
Turkeys voting for Christmas.2 -
Electoral Calculus gives a Tory majority of 172, bigger than Thatcher's 1983 landslide and almost as big as Blair's 1997 landslide.Scott_P said:
Conservatives 411, Labour 151, LDs 31
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=37&LAB=22&LIB=17&Brexit=12&Green=4&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base0 -
60 for a 15 point lead? No chance, that model is borked if so.CatMan said:
I strongly doubt it will remain a 15 point lead but I remain confident we will soon see a poll showing Tories on 40%+ like I've predicted will occur by end of October when Corbyn made the terrible mistake of refusing the election.
An opposition leader should never reject an election. He'll rue the day.1 -
...and are a different party in a different country. Gods, you don't half talk some nonsense.HYUFD said:
Despite your continued brain dead attempts to get as many insults as possible into a post without saying a single thing of interest, my point was of course entirely relevant as before they won a majority in 2015 under FPTP Trudeau's Liberals were fully committed to PR.Noo said:
Are you seriously projecting the actions of a party in one country to an unrelated party in another country because the names are similar? That's some pretty impressive dimwittery, even for a notorious thicko like you.HYUFD said:
They may not introduce PR if they get a majority under FPTP, the Trudeau experience suggests Liberals are all for PR in opposition but as soon as they win a majority under FPTP they dump it rather than risk having to share power with parties to their left or right.Benpointer said:
You seem to be forgetting that in the unlikely event of a LibDem majority under FPTP they will:Gabs2 said:
It is exactly the same as the Faragists' tactics, which is to say, reprehensible. Lobbying foreign leaders over the heads of Her Majesty's government to help out your own political faction should be off limits. All this does is further delegitimize a successful revoke push. Even if they get it, the Tories will take us out of the EU with no further referendum the next time they get a majority.nico67 said:
Big deal . The Lib Dems want to stop Brexit. So why would anyone be shocked that they’ve put that case .TGOHF said:
Is it any different to Tory MPs and Farage asking a country to veto an extension.
I personally don’t support the revoke policy but I hope Leavers will spare Remainers the faux outrage when their poster boy Bozo is both a pathological liar and not negotiating in good faith .
1. Revoke A50
2. Introduce PR to make it extrememly unlikely that the Tories or any other party will win a majority in future.
Think of it as their way of getting their own back on FPTP
If as is likely they lose that majority they may go back to it but that does not change the point0 -
Must have something to do with online polling.surbiton19 said:
Why are Opinium and YouGov so vastly different to other pollsters. This has to be about methodology. One group is badly wrong.Scott_P said:0 -
I would love a result like that. Even better would be Tories >400 and crossover so LDs ahead of Labour. Once can hope.HYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives a Tory majority of 172, bigger even than Blair's 1997 landslide.Scott_P said:
Conservatives 411, Labour 151, LDs 31
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=37&LAB=22&LIB=17&Brexit=12&Green=4&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base0 -
I'm wary of arguing polls with you but I'd make two points:HYUFD said:
Except the main movement since the blackface affair has been from the Liberals to the NDP.
The latest Nanos poll today shows the NDP up along with the BQ with the Liberals down and the Conservatives also a little bit down compared to the previous Nanos poll.
The Ontario poll reflects the swing to the Tories since 2015 and again tells us Trudeau is likely to lose his majority but Scheer is unlikely to win a majority but it does not tell us anything about the blackface impact unlike the rolling Nanos polling
1) Both Nanos and Mainstreet are running daily rolling polls which basically re-sample the same group by thirds on a daily basis so the comparison shouldn't be from day to day but every three days as the whole sample is re-measured. Nanos are sampling 1,200 by phone while Mainstreet's sample size is 2,087 by interview.
2) The significance of Ontario can't be over-stated. With 121 ridings it is the place where Canadian elections are won or lost. It would be as if London and the South East had 250 constituencies in the UK. Neither Liberals nor Conservatives can build a majority without a strong performance in Ontario given the Conservatives will sweep the Prairies and the Liberals will win in the east.
Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia will decide the election and I'd argue regional polls mean much more than national polls. The 7% swing from Liberal to Conservative would certainly deprive Trudeau of a majority but the collapse of the NDP probably means 300+ of the 338 seats will be won by the two main parties with the NDP reduced to a rump and BQ probably making a few gains.
It's not inconceivable the two main parties might end up very close on seats at around 145-155 each.
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The point doesn't matter with regards to country or party. Tony Blair was all for voting reform until he saw himself win a landslide too.Noo said:
...and are a different party in a different country. Gods, you don't half talk some nonsense.HYUFD said:
Despite your continued brain dead attempts to get as many insults as possible into a post without saying a single thing of interest, my point was of course entirely relevant as before they won a majority in 2015 under FPTP Trudeau's Liberals were fully committed to PR.Noo said:
Are you seriously projecting the actions of a party in one country to an unrelated party in another country because the names are similar? That's some pretty impressive dimwittery, even for a notorious thicko like you.HYUFD said:
They may not introduce PR if they get a majority under FPTP, the Trudeau experience suggests Liberals are all for PR in opposition but as soon as they win a majority under FPTP they dump it rather than risk having to share power with parties to their left or right.Benpointer said:
You seem to be forgetting that in the unlikely event of a LibDem majority under FPTP they will:Gabs2 said:
It is exactly the same as the Faragists' tactics, which is to say, reprehensible. Lobbying foreign leaders over the heads of Her Majesty's government to help out your own political faction should be off limits. All this does is further delegitimize a successful revoke push. Even if they get it, the Tories will take us out of the EU with no further referendum the next time they get a majority.nico67 said:
Big deal . The Lib Dems want to stop Brexit. So why would anyone be shocked that they’ve put that case .TGOHF said:
Is it any different to Tory MPs and Farage asking a country to veto an extension.
I personally don’t support the revoke policy but I hope Leavers will spare Remainers the faux outrage when their poster boy Bozo is both a pathological liar and not negotiating in good faith .
1. Revoke A50
2. Introduce PR to make it extrememly unlikely that the Tories or any other party will win a majority in future.
Think of it as their way of getting their own back on FPTP
If as is likely they lose that majority they may go back to it but that does not change the point1 -
Well the LDs are much closer to Labour on votes and seats than Labour are to the Tories now if Opinium is correctPhilip_Thompson said:
I would love a result like that. Even better would be Tories >400 and crossover so LDs ahead of Labour. Once can hope.HYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives a Tory majority of 172, bigger even than Blair's 1997 landslide.Scott_P said:
Conservatives 411, Labour 151, LDs 31
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=37&LAB=22&LIB=17&Brexit=12&Green=4&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base0 -
A very good point. But since the Lib Dems sadly aren't averse to bumping folk up to the Lords, there would be a few soft landings.Philip_Thompson said:
You realise of course that were the Lib Dems to win a majority under FPTP and then introduce PR that would mean hundreds of newly elected MPs would suddenly find themselves unable to win next time around?stodge said:
I do think, were the LDs to win a landslide majority, they would use the five years of the elected dictatorship to implement a truly radical programme of legislation - hopefully as radical as the Asquith Government of blessed memory.HYUFD said:
Two words, tuition fees shows how LDs can dispense with promises when needed
I admire and respect your cynicism but I'd like to think the introduction of STV for all local elections would be immediate and for Westminster in time. The impact of such a move would be to break the party system as it stands but new groupings of parties would emerge including a centre-left bloc and a centre-right bloc.
Turkeys voting for Christmas.0 -
Kantar and Ipsos MORI also have big Con leads. Most recent:surbiton19 said:
Why are Opinium and YouGov so vastly different to other pollsters. This has to be about methodology. One group is badly wrong.Scott_P said:
Opinium - Con +15
Kantar - Con +14
YouGov - Con +9
Ipsos MORI - Con +91 -
Opinium has CON+BP at 49% and Lab/LD/Green at 43%Philip_Thompson said:
60 for a 15 point lead? No chance, that model is borked if so.
I strongly doubt it will remain a 15 point lead but I remain confident we will soon see a poll showing Tories on 40%+ like I've predicted will occur by end of October when Corbyn made the terrible mistake of refusing the election.
An opposition leader should never reject an election. He'll rue the day.
IPSOS-MORI had CON+BP at 43% and Lab/LD/Green at 51%
YouGov had CON+BP at 46% and Lab/LD/Green at 48%
Something for everyone but please don't believe any of them.1 -
I do agree both the Liberals and Tories could be neck and neck on seats (given the huge Conservative lead in Alberta bumps up their popular vote lead) with the NDP and BQ holding the balance of power and the blackface affair has not really changed that if Nanos today is correctstodge said:
I'm wary of arguing polls with you but I'd make two points:HYUFD said:
Except the main movement since the blackface affair has been from the Liberals to the NDP.
The latest Nanos poll today shows the NDP up along with the BQ with the Liberals down and the Conservatives also a little bit down compared to the previous Nanos poll.
The Ontario poll reflects the swing to the Tories since 2015 and again tells us Trudeau is likely to lose his majority but Scheer is unlikely to win a majority but it does not tell us anything about the blackface impact unlike the rolling Nanos polling
1) Both Nanos and Mainstreet are running daily rolling polls which basically re-sample the same group by thirds on a daily basis so the comparison shouldn't be from day to day but every three days as the whole sample is re-measured. Nanos are sampling 1,200 by phone while Mainstreet's sample size is 2,087 by interview.
2) The significance of Ontario can't be over-stated. With 121 ridings it is the place where Canadian elections are won or lost. It would be as if London and the South East had 250 constituencies in the UK. Neither Liberals nor Conservatives can build a majority without a strong performance in Ontario given the Conservatives will sweep the Prairies and the Liberals will win in the east.
Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia will decide the election and I'd argue regional polls mean much more than national polls. The 7% swing from Liberal to Conservative would certainly deprive Trudeau of a majority but the collapse of the NDP probably means 300+ of the 338 seats will be won by the two main parties with the NDP reduced to a rump and BQ probably making a few gains.
It's not inconceivable the two main parties might end up very close on seats at around 145-155 each.
The NDP collapse really came in 2015 when they fell from second and 30% in 2011 to third and just 19% as Trudeau's Liberals leapt from just 18% in 2011 to first place on 39%. They are currently still polling in the teens like 2015 even if the lower rather than higher teens0 -
Going so well for Labour under Jez and Len.Scott_P said:0 -
Most certainly. Every time the Lib Dems have got an overall majority in the last 100 years, they have never failed to keep their promises.Floater said:
LOL - A lib dem can post THAT with a straight face....PClipp said:
You are unusually cynical this afternoon, Mr HY. It is the Conservatives who make promises when they are campaigning for votes, and then go back on those promises.HYUFD said:
They may not introduce PR if they get a majority under FPTP, the Trudeau experience suggests Liberals are all for PR in opposition but as soon as they win a majority under FPTP they dump it rather than risk having to share power with parties to their left or right.Benpointer said:
You seem to be forgetting that in the unlikely event of a LibDem majority under FPTP they will:Gabs2 said:
It is exactly the same as the Faragists' tactics, which is to say, reprehensible. Lobbying foreign leaders over the heads of Her Majesty's government to help out your own political faction should be off limits. All this does is further delegitimize a successful revoke push. Even if they get it, the Tories will take us out of the EU with no further referendum the next time they get a majority.nico67 said:
Big deal . The Lib Dems want to stop Brexit. So why would anyone be shocked that they’ve put that case .TGOHF said:
Is it any different to Tory MPs and Farage asking a country to veto an extension.
I personally don’t support the revoke policy but I hope Leavers will spare Remainers the faux outrage when their poster boy Bozo is both a pathological liar and not negotiating in good faith .
1. Revoke A50
2. Introduce PR to make it extrememly unlikely that the Tories or any other party will win a majority in future.
Think of it as their way of getting their own back on FPTP
You Tories cannot say as much, can you?0 -
Didn't think you would be able to justify your postChris said:
Another reminder of why it's a waste of time commenting here.logical_song said:
If "most politicians are quite privileged people who will be protected against the consequences of No Deal" and by implication don't care then why are so many putting their careers at risk to stop it?Chris said:I can't help thinking that all this talk of a Lib Dem revival is just another unicorn. Or maybe something worse than a unicorn.
In reality I can think of few things more conducive to Johnson getting an electoral mandate for No Deal (if that's what he wants) than a Lib Dem revival that would split the opposition vote.
I'm afraid that most politicians are quite privileged people who will be protected against the consequences of No Deal, and that - despite the self-serving rhetoric - there are only a relatively small number who really see avoiding it as their top priority.
You're also impying that Boris is somehow encouraging the LibDem revival - which, as a unicorn, wouldn't exist. Have you seen the results of the recent elections?
Did you even read that post through before clicking 'Post Comment'?
But thanks anyway - obviously I still need reminding!0 -
-
Your analogy with the Canadian Liberals is very good ... because before they found Trudeau, they had slipped into third place behind the Conservatives and the NDP.HYUFD said:
Despite your continued brain dead attempts to get as many insults as possible into a post without saying a single thing of interest, my point was of course entirely relevant as before they won a majority in 2015 under FPTP Trudeau's Liberals were fully committed to PR.Noo said:
Are you seriously projecting the actions of a party in one country to an unrelated party in another country because the names are similar? That's some pretty impressive dimwittery, even for a notorious thicko like you.HYUFD said:
They may not introduce PR if they get a majority under FPTP, the Trudeau experience suggests Liberals are all for PR in opposition but as soon as they win a majority under FPTP they dump it rather than risk having to share power with parties to their left or right.Benpointer said:
You seem to be forgetting that in the unlikely event of a LibDem majority under FPTP they will:Gabs2 said:
It is exactly the same as the Faragists' tactics, which is to say, reprehensible. Lobbying foreign leaders over the heads of Her Majesty's government to help out your own political faction should be off limits. All this does is further delegitimize a successful revoke push. Even if they get it, the Tories will take us out of the EU with no further referendum the next time they get a majority.nico67 said:
Big deal . The Lib Dems want to stop Brexit. So why would anyone be shocked that they’ve put that case .TGOHF said:
Is it any different to Tory MPs and Farage asking a country to veto an extension.
I personally don’t support the revoke policy but I hope Leavers will spare Remainers the faux outrage when their poster boy Bozo is both a pathological liar and not negotiating in good faith .
1. Revoke A50
2. Introduce PR to make it extrememly unlikely that the Tories or any other party will win a majority in future.
Think of it as their way of getting their own back on FPTP
If as is likely they lose that majority they may go back to it but that does not change the point
Third placed parties always love electoral reform.
First placed parties never.
If the LibDems ever win under FPTP, they will learn to stop worrying about it and love it. As Trudeau did.1 -
CON + BXP = 49% despite the chaos. People should be careful about wishing for PR.Scott_P said:0 -
Welcome to Breitbart World. All parties with "Liberal" in their name must behave like US Democrats and be lumped together. All parties with "Conservative" in their name must behave like US Republicans and be lumped together. Any factual contradictions to this stupidity must be ignored or abused using poor logic.Noo said:
Are you seriously projecting the actions of a party in one country to an unrelated party in another country because the names are similar? That's some pretty impressive dimwittery, even for a notorious thicko like you.HYUFD said:
They may not introduce PR if they get a majority under FPTP, the Trudeau experience suggests Liberals are all for PR in opposition but as soon as they win a majority under FPTP they dump it rather than risk having to share power with parties to their left or right.Benpointer said:
You seem to be forgetting that in the unlikely event of a LibDem majority under FPTP they will:Gabs2 said:
It is exactly the same as the Faragists' tactics, which is to say, reprehensible. Lobbying foreign leaders over the heads of Her Majesty's government to help out your own political faction should be off limits. All this does is further delegitimize a successful revoke push. Even if they get it, the Tories will take us out of the EU with no further referendum the next time they get a majority.nico67 said:
Big deal . The Lib Dems want to stop Brexit. So why would anyone be shocked that they’ve put that case .TGOHF said:
Is it any different to Tory MPs and Farage asking a country to veto an extension.
I personally don’t support the revoke policy but I hope Leavers will spare Remainers the faux outrage when their poster boy Bozo is both a pathological liar and not negotiating in good faith .
1. Revoke A50
2. Introduce PR to make it extrememly unlikely that the Tories or any other party will win a majority in future.
Think of it as their way of getting their own back on FPTP0 -
Con heading into landslide territory now.Scott_P said:
Jezza should have agreed to the election as [one or two of us] said at the time...1 -
Lib Dems have a way bigger ceiling than Labour now, so I wouldn't wish for that.Philip_Thompson said:
I would love a result like that. Even better would be Tories >400 and crossover so LDs ahead of Labour. Once can hope.HYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives a Tory majority of 172, bigger even than Blair's 1997 landslide.Scott_P said:
Conservatives 411, Labour 151, LDs 31
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=37&LAB=22&LIB=17&Brexit=12&Green=4&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base0 -
Last time I checked, most pollsters used online panel polling, with some occasional exceptions (do Survation still use telephone polling?)nunuone said:
Must have something to do with online polling.surbiton19 said:
Why are Opinium and YouGov so vastly different to other pollsters. This has to be about methodology. One group is badly wrong.Scott_P said:0 -
Are Labour still in favour of a snap election?Scott_P said:0 -
Important point, this. The flagellation of the Lib Dems over tuition fees is desperate stuff. It was relevant: I voted Lib Dem in 2010 and have not voted for them since. That was one of the reasons. But, christ, it was nearly a decade ago and they were a junior partner in the coalition.PClipp said:
Most certainly. Every time the Lib Dems have got an overall majority in the last 100 years, they have never failed to keep their promises.Floater said:
LOL - A lib dem can post THAT with a straight face....PClipp said:
You are unusually cynical this afternoon, Mr HY. It is the Conservatives who make promises when they are campaigning for votes, and then go back on those promises.HYUFD said:
They may not introduce PR if they get a majority under FPTP, the Trudeau experience suggests Liberals are all for PR in opposition but as soon as they win a majority under FPTP they dump it rather than risk having to share power with parties to their left or right.Benpointer said:
You seem to be forgetting that in the unlikely event of a LibDem majority under FPTP they will:Gabs2 said:
It is exactly the same as the Faragists' tactics, which is to say, reprehensible. Lobbying foreign leaders over the heads of Her Majesty's government to help out your own political faction should be off limits. All this does is further delegitimize a successful revoke push. Even if they get it, the Tories will take us out of the EU with no further referendum the next time they get a majority.nico67 said:
Big deal . The Lib Dems want to stop Brexit. So why would anyone be shocked that they’ve put that case .TGOHF said:
Is it any different to Tory MPs and Farage asking a country to veto an extension.
I personally don’t support the revoke policy but I hope Leavers will spare Remainers the faux outrage when their poster boy Bozo is both a pathological liar and not negotiating in good faith .
1. Revoke A50
2. Introduce PR to make it extrememly unlikely that the Tories or any other party will win a majority in future.
Think of it as their way of getting their own back on FPTP
You Tories cannot say as much, can you?
I'd find it plausible if people criticising the Lib Dems were advocating another party that had a better record, but 90%+ of the time they're Tories and Labour voters whose record on lies and broken promises is, well, more substantial.
Like being lectured by a murderer over taking your library book back late. Hair-raising hypocrisy.0 -
Need to wait until November, and see if the Brexit Party is at 20%+ levels.0
-
I am stuck here (medical conditions)! Besides short trips away from home are great but living somewhere else has never really appealed to me. I do have some French heritage, they were Huguenots who were of course persecuted and large number fled to the safety of this country. But I cannot speak French, it was the only subject I ever failed at school!nico67 said:
A good time to try and escape . Do you have any EU connections in terms of family ! At this point Bozo could decapitate Bambi on live tv whilst at the same time ordering a missile strike on a school and still the voters will flock to him !The_Taxman said: Never mind when Bozo orders the extermination of people like me I will be first in the queue I have no doubt! 0 -
They say Tories have just two settings - complacency and panic.
Wise words.0 -
Its what I think would be best for the country.Gabs2 said:
Lib Dems have a way bigger ceiling than Labour now, so I wouldn't wish for that.Philip_Thompson said:
I would love a result like that. Even better would be Tories >400 and crossover so LDs ahead of Labour. Once can hope.HYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives a Tory majority of 172, bigger even than Blair's 1997 landslide.Scott_P said:
Conservatives 411, Labour 151, LDs 31
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=37&LAB=22&LIB=17&Brexit=12&Green=4&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
Tories won't be in office forever. Better when they go that they're replaced by the LDs than Labour.0 -
Blaming the voters is never a good political strategy. Had Labour embraced soft Brexit as the only game in town, we would have remained close to the EU, the Labour coalition would have held together and we would be remaining close enough to Brussels re-entry in a decade would have been viable.*nico67 said:
A good time to try and escape . Do you have any EU connections in terms of family ! At this point Bozo could decapitate Bambi on live tv whilst at the same time ordering a missile strike on a school and still the voters will flock to him !The_Taxman said:
*May also have required opposing racism against Jews.1 -
That was not what I was saying which was more an attitude to FPTP and PR depending on whether you have a majority or not.viewcode said:
Welcome to Breitbart World. All parties with "Liberal" in their name must behave like US Democrats and be lumped together. All parties with "Conservative" in their name must behave like US Republicans and be lumped together. Any factual contradictions to this stupidity must be ignored or abused using poor logic.Noo said:
Are you seriously projecting the actions of a party in one country to an unrelated party in another country because the names are similar? That's some pretty impressive dimwittery, even for a notorious thicko like you.HYUFD said:
They may not introduce PR if they get a majority under FPTP, the Trudeau experience suggests Liberals are all for PR in opposition but as soon as they win a majority under FPTP they dump it rather than risk having to share power with parties to their left or right.Benpointer said:
You seem to be forgetting that in the unlikely event of a LibDem majority under FPTP they will:Gabs2 said:
It is exactly the same as the Faragists' tactics, which is to say, reprehensible. Lobbying foreign leaders over the heads of Her Majesty's government to help out your own political faction should be off limits. All this does is further delegitimize a successful revoke push. Even if they get it, the Tories will take us out of the EU with no further referendum the next time they get a majority.nico67 said:
Big deal . The Lib Dems want to stop Brexit. So why would anyone be shocked that they’ve put that case .TGOHF said:
Is it any different to Tory MPs and Farage asking a country to veto an extension.
I personally don’t support the revoke policy but I hope Leavers will spare Remainers the faux outrage when their poster boy Bozo is both a pathological liar and not negotiating in good faith .
1. Revoke A50
2. Introduce PR to make it extrememly unlikely that the Tories or any other party will win a majority in future.
Think of it as their way of getting their own back on FPTP
While Conservative Parties all over the world do tend to be conservstive, even if not as populist as the Republicans under Trump, Liberal parties can vary. While in the Liberal Party in Canada, the UK Liberal Democrats, the US Democrats, the liberal En Marche in France etc tend to centre left, the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party, the Australian Liberals, the Spanish liberal Citizens party, the German liberal FDP and liberal parties in the Netherlands and Scandinavia tend to be centre right0 -
Can't argue with that.Philip_Thompson said:
Its what I think would be best for the country.Gabs2 said:
Lib Dems have a way bigger ceiling than Labour now, so I wouldn't wish for that.Philip_Thompson said:
I would love a result like that. Even better would be Tories >400 and crossover so LDs ahead of Labour. Once can hope.HYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives a Tory majority of 172, bigger even than Blair's 1997 landslide.Scott_P said:
Conservatives 411, Labour 151, LDs 31
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=37&LAB=22&LIB=17&Brexit=12&Green=4&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
Tories won't be in office forever. Better when they go that they're replaced by the LDs than Labour.0 -
There won’t be an election while ever Labour’s polling is in the doldrums. The FTPA doing its job I guess, removes power from the hands of the PM.0
-
Yes if the LDs win a majority their new MPs will be much less clear on FPTP as Philip Thompson correctly statesYBarddCwsc said:
Your analogy with the Canadian Liberals is very good ... because before they found Trudeau, they had slipped into third place behind the Conservatives and the NDP.HYUFD said:
Despite your continued brain dead attempts to get as many insults as possible into a post without saying a single thing of interest, my point was of course entirely relevant as before they won a majority in 2015 under FPTP Trudeau's Liberals were fully committed to PR.Noo said:
Are you seriously projecting the actions of a party in one country to an unrelated party in another country because the names are similar? That's some pretty impressive dimwittery, even for a notorious thicko like you.HYUFD said:
They may not introduce PR if they get a majority under FPTP, the Trudeau experience suggests Liberals are all for PR in opposition but as soon as they win a majority under FPTP they dump it rather than risk having to share power with parties to their left or right.Benpointer said:
You seem to be forgetting that in the unlikely event of a LibDem majority under FPTP they will:Gabs2 said:
It is exactly the same as the Faragists' tactics, which is to say, reprehensible. Lobbying foreign leaders over the heads of Her Majesty's government to help out your own political faction should be off limits. All this does is further delegitimize a successful revoke push. Even if they get it, the Tories will take us out of the EU with no further referendum the next time they get a majority.nico67 said:
Big deal . The Lib Dems want to stop Brexit. So why would anyone be shocked that they’ve put that case .TGOHF said:
Is it any different to Tory MPs and Farage asking a country to veto an extension.
I personally don’t support the revoke policy but I hope Leavers will spare Remainers the faux outrage when their poster boy Bozo is both a pathological liar and not negotiating in good faith .
1. Revoke A50
2. Introduce PR to make it extrememly unlikely that the Tories or any other party will win a majority in future.
Think of it as their way of getting their own back on FPTP
If as is likely they lose that majority they may go back to it but that does not change the point
Third placed parties always love electoral reform.
First placed parties never.
If the LibDems ever win under FPTP, they will learn to stop worrying about it and love it. As Trudeau did.1 -
Bang on. The torpidity of it all is fucking numbing.viewcode said:
Welcome to Breitbart World. All parties with "Liberal" in their name must behave like US Democrats and be lumped together. All parties with "Conservative" in their name must behave like US Republicans and be lumped together. Any factual contradictions to this stupidity must be ignored or abused using poor logic.Noo said:
Are you seriously projecting the actions of a party in one country to an unrelated party in another country because the names are similar? That's some pretty impressive dimwittery, even for a notorious thicko like you.HYUFD said:
They may not introduce PR if they get a majority under FPTP, the Trudeau experience suggests Liberals are all for PR in opposition but as soon as they win a majority under FPTP they dump it rather than risk having to share power with parties to their left or right.Benpointer said:
You seem to be forgetting that in the unlikely event of a LibDem majority under FPTP they will:Gabs2 said:
It is exactly the same as the Faragists' tactics, which is to say, reprehensible. Lobbying foreign leaders over the heads of Her Majesty's government to help out your own political faction should be off limits. All this does is further delegitimize a successful revoke push. Even if they get it, the Tories will take us out of the EU with no further referendum the next time they get a majority.nico67 said:
Big deal . The Lib Dems want to stop Brexit. So why would anyone be shocked that they’ve put that case .TGOHF said:
Is it any different to Tory MPs and Farage asking a country to veto an extension.
I personally don’t support the revoke policy but I hope Leavers will spare Remainers the faux outrage when their poster boy Bozo is both a pathological liar and not negotiating in good faith .
1. Revoke A50
2. Introduce PR to make it extrememly unlikely that the Tories or any other party will win a majority in future.
Think of it as their way of getting their own back on FPTP0 -
I will more than likely vote LD at the next election but I cannot see them doing better than 40 - 60 seats. I think talk of LD usurping Labour is for the birds! Even if it is for yellow parrots...Philip_Thompson said:
Its what I think would be best for the country.Gabs2 said:
Lib Dems have a way bigger ceiling than Labour now, so I wouldn't wish for that.Philip_Thompson said:
I would love a result like that. Even better would be Tories >400 and crossover so LDs ahead of Labour. Once can hope.HYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives a Tory majority of 172, bigger even than Blair's 1997 landslide.Scott_P said:
Conservatives 411, Labour 151, LDs 31
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=37&LAB=22&LIB=17&Brexit=12&Green=4&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
Tories won't be in office forever. Better when they go that they're replaced by the LDs than Labour. 1 -
There might be if the LDs, SNP and Tories vote for one, all would gain seats with Opinium unlike LabourAnabobazina said:There won’t be an election while ever Labour’s polling is in the doldrums. The FTPA doing its job I guess, removes power from the hands of the PM.
0 -
I wonder - is anyone of normal intelligence with even the vaguest interest in politics not aware that under our electoral system it's advantageous to the party of government that the opposition vote is split?logical_song said:
Didn't think you would be able to justify your postChris said:
Another reminder of why it's a waste of time commenting here.logical_song said:
If "most politicians are quite privileged people who will be protected against the consequences of No Deal" and by implication don't care then why are so many putting their careers at risk to stop it?Chris said:I can't help thinking that all this talk of a Lib Dem revival is just another unicorn. Or maybe something worse than a unicorn.
In reality I can think of few things more conducive to Johnson getting an electoral mandate for No Deal (if that's what he wants) than a Lib Dem revival that would split the opposition vote.
I'm afraid that most politicians are quite privileged people who will be protected against the consequences of No Deal, and that - despite the self-serving rhetoric - there are only a relatively small number who really see avoiding it as their top priority.
You're also impying that Boris is somehow encouraging the LibDem revival - which, as a unicorn, wouldn't exist. Have you seen the results of the recent elections?
Did you even read that post through before clicking 'Post Comment'?
But thanks anyway - obviously I still need reminding!
But I think must be the Zeroth Law of Internet discussion that no view is so stupid or ignorant that some fool won't defend it, and no view is so self-evidently true that some fool won't deny it.0 -
It might take two elections but it will happen. An anti-Semitic, autocrat-friendly far Left Labour Party is only going to lose support over time. And I can't see them reforming. Their most promising talent has already left.The_Taxman said:
I will more than likely vote LD at the next election but I cannot see them doing better than 40 - 60 seats. I think talk of LD usurping Labour is for the birds! Even if it is for yellow parrots...Philip_Thompson said:
Its what I think would be best for the country.Gabs2 said:
Lib Dems have a way bigger ceiling than Labour now, so I wouldn't wish for that.Philip_Thompson said:
I would love a result like that. Even better would be Tories >400 and crossover so LDs ahead of Labour. Once can hope.HYUFD said:
Electoral Calculus gives a Tory majority of 172, bigger even than Blair's 1997 landslide.Scott_P said:
Conservatives 411, Labour 151, LDs 31
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=37&LAB=22&LIB=17&Brexit=12&Green=4&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
Tories won't be in office forever. Better when they go that they're replaced by the LDs than Labour.1 -
Labour currently has 38% of MPs so they can block an election unless some of them go rogue.HYUFD said:
There might be if the LDs, SNP and Tories vote for one, all would gain seats with Opinium unlike LabourAnabobazina said:There won’t be an election while ever Labour’s polling is in the doldrums. The FTPA doing its job I guess, removes power from the hands of the PM.
0 -
OT: The cricket is very exciting0
-
A meteor might hit the Earth.HYUFD said:
There might be if the LDs, SNP and Tories vote for one, all would gain seats with Opinium unlike LabourAnabobazina said:There won’t be an election while ever Labour’s polling is in the doldrums. The FTPA doing its job I guess, removes power from the hands of the PM.
However, it remains unlikely.0 -
Because Jezza is nothing if he's not a campaigner. Campaigning is what he does. It's in his DNA or that's what everyone thought.Anabobazina said:
Look what he did in 2017 when he was like "bring it on" - He was litterally a few thousand votes from being PM.
By running and hiding from the electorate he has basically destroyed his rasion d'etre...0 -
If LDs and SNP on board they can do it by amending the FTPAAndyJS said:
Labour currently has 38% of MPs so they can block an election unless some of them go rogue.HYUFD said:
There might be if the LDs, SNP and Tories vote for one, all would gain seats with Opinium unlike LabourAnabobazina said:There won’t be an election while ever Labour’s polling is in the doldrums. The FTPA doing its job I guess, removes power from the hands of the PM.
1 -
The Guardian is indicating that Labour are now in the final, tertiary stage of their civil war, when the madness emerges into the light, glistening and horrible.
Heh.1 -
Given the Lib Dems are ahead of Labour with half the polling firns and have a way higher ceiling than Corbyn's Labour, there is a strong argument that it is Labour splitting the Lib Dem vote.Chris said:
I wonder - is anyone of normal intelligence with even the vaguest interest in politics not aware that under our electoral system it's advantageous to the party of government that the opposition vote is split?logical_song said:
Didn't think you would be able to justify your postChris said:
Another reminder of why it's a waste of time commenting here.logical_song said:
If "most politicians are quite privileged people who will be protected against the consequences of No Deal" and by implication don't care then why are so many putting their careers at risk to stop it?Chris said:I can't help thinking that all this talk of a Lib Dem revival is just another unicorn. Or maybe something worse than a unicorn.
In reality I can think of few things more conducive to Johnson getting an electoral mandate for No Deal (if that's what he wants) than a Lib Dem revival that would split the opposition vote.
I'm afraid that most politicians are quite privileged people who will be protected against the consequences of No Deal, and that - despite the self-serving rhetoric - there are only a relatively small number who really see avoiding it as their top priority.
You're also impying that Boris is somehow encouraging the LibDem revival - which, as a unicorn, wouldn't exist. Have you seen the results of the recent elections?
Did you even read that post through before clicking 'Post Comment'?
But thanks anyway - obviously I still need reminding!
But I think must be the Zeroth Law of Internet discussion that no view is so stupid or ignorant that some fool won't defend it, and no view is so self-evidently true that some fool won't deny it.0 -
O/T
Canadian general election: NDP defences.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1B-i3PZE7gNVdo5cgtFGx-OIs0I5-u5JKq8okqTGXDDE/edit#gid=00 -
That would make it a meteorite.Anabobazina said:
A meteor might hit the Earth.HYUFD said:
There might be if the LDs, SNP and Tories vote for one, all would gain seats with Opinium unlike LabourAnabobazina said:There won’t be an election while ever Labour’s polling is in the doldrums. The FTPA doing its job I guess, removes power from the hands of the PM.
However, it remains unlikely. 0 -
Differences between pollsters have to explain this. People have observed that:surbiton19 said:
Why are Opinium and YouGov so vastly different to other pollsters. This has to be about methodology. One group is badly wrong.Scott_P said:
1) Pollsters who prompt for the Brexit party have different responses to those who do not
2) Pollsters who correct by recalled previous party vote have different responses to those who do not or who correct by recorded PPV
I also suspect turnout models will be different, tho' that's a bit of a cold read (when are they ever the same?)
So. We have one group of pollsters showing massive Con leads. Another group showing smaller. I do not know which is correct.0 -
Lol. Not going to happen.dyedwoolie said:
If LDs and SNP on board they can do it by amending the FTPAAndyJS said:
Labour currently has 38% of MPs so they can block an election unless some of them go rogue.HYUFD said:
There might be if the LDs, SNP and Tories vote for one, all would gain seats with Opinium unlike LabourAnabobazina said:There won’t be an election while ever Labour’s polling is in the doldrums. The FTPA doing its job I guess, removes power from the hands of the PM.
0 -
It is actually impossible for a meteor to hit the Earth by definition.Anabobazina said:
A meteor might hit the Earth.HYUFD said:
There might be if the LDs, SNP and Tories vote for one, all would gain seats with Opinium unlike LabourAnabobazina said:There won’t be an election while ever Labour’s polling is in the doldrums. The FTPA doing its job I guess, removes power from the hands of the PM.
However, it remains unlikely.
Unless you mean a meteorite, in which case it happens all the time.0 -
The strategy was to boil Boris slowly by waiting until after his self-imposed deadline of 31 Oct.GIN1138 said:
Because Jezza is nothing if he's not a campaigner. Campaigning is what he does. It's in his DNA or that's what everyone thought.Anabobazina said:
Look what he did in 2017 when he was like "bring it on" - He was litterally a few thousand votes from being PM.
By running and hiding from the electorate he has basically destroyed his rasion d'etre...
It’s 21 September.
Have some patience man!!0 -
True, although it's not so obvious those parties would vote in favour of amending the FTPA, as opposed to simply voting in favour of an election under the current rule of needing two-thirds of MP to vote in favour of it.dyedwoolie said:
If LDs and SNP on board they can do it by amending the FTPAAndyJS said:
Labour currently has 38% of MPs so they can block an election unless some of them go rogue.HYUFD said:
There might be if the LDs, SNP and Tories vote for one, all would gain seats with Opinium unlike LabourAnabobazina said:There won’t be an election while ever Labour’s polling is in the doldrums. The FTPA doing its job I guess, removes power from the hands of the PM.
0 -
FFS. I have been entrapped by the PB Astro-pedants.Gabs2 said:
It is actually impossible for a meteor to hit the Earth by definition.Anabobazina said:
A meteor might hit the Earth.HYUFD said:
There might be if the LDs, SNP and Tories vote for one, all would gain seats with Opinium unlike LabourAnabobazina said:There won’t be an election while ever Labour’s polling is in the doldrums. The FTPA doing its job I guess, removes power from the hands of the PM.
However, it remains unlikely.
Unless you mean a meteorite, in which case it happens all the time.0 -
That's assuming that Brexiteers are too stupid to realise that Remainers in Parliament are the problem and that they need to give Boris a majority to get the job done.Anabobazina said:
The strategy was to boil Boris slowly by waiting until after his self-imposed deadline of 31 Oct.GIN1138 said:
Because Jezza is nothing if he's not a campaigner. Campaigning is what he does. It's in his DNA or that's what everyone thought.Anabobazina said:
Look what he did in 2017 when he was like "bring it on" - He was litterally a few thousand votes from being PM.
By running and hiding from the electorate he has basically destroyed his rasion d'etre...
It’s 21 September.
Have some patience man!!1 -
No, theyll let the ruined and finished labour party call the shots. L to the o to the lAnabobazina said:
Lol. Not going to happen.dyedwoolie said:
If LDs and SNP on board they can do it by amending the FTPAAndyJS said:
Labour currently has 38% of MPs so they can block an election unless some of them go rogue.HYUFD said:
There might be if the LDs, SNP and Tories vote for one, all would gain seats with Opinium unlike LabourAnabobazina said:There won’t be an election while ever Labour’s polling is in the doldrums. The FTPA doing its job I guess, removes power from the hands of the PM.
0 -
Er, there aren’t enough of them...Philip_Thompson said:
That's assuming that Brexiteers are too stupid to realise that Remainers in Parliament are the problem and that they need to give Boris a majority to get the job done.Anabobazina said:
The strategy was to boil Boris slowly by waiting until after his self-imposed deadline of 31 Oct.GIN1138 said:
Because Jezza is nothing if he's not a campaigner. Campaigning is what he does. It's in his DNA or that's what everyone thought.Anabobazina said:
Look what he did in 2017 when he was like "bring it on" - He was litterally a few thousand votes from being PM.
By running and hiding from the electorate he has basically destroyed his rasion d'etre...
It’s 21 September.
Have some patience man!!0 -
dyedwoolie said:
No, theyll let the ruined and finished labour party call the shots. L to the o to the lAnabobazina said:
Lol. Not going to happen.dyedwoolie said:
If LDs and SNP on board they can do it by amending the FTPAAndyJS said:
Labour currently has 38% of MPs so they can block an election unless some of them go rogue.HYUFD said:
There might be if the LDs, SNP and Tories vote for one, all would gain seats with Opinium unlike LabourAnabobazina said:There won’t be an election while ever Labour’s polling is in the doldrums. The FTPA doing its job I guess, removes power from the hands of the PM.
Okay, noted. Let’s see who is right...0 -
Indeed. If we haven't leaft on 1st November Brexiteers will be very clear where the fauly lies.Philip_Thompson said:
That's assuming that Brexiteers are too stupid to realise that Remainers in Parliament are the problem and that they need to give Boris a majority to get the job done.Anabobazina said:
The strategy was to boil Boris slowly by waiting until after his self-imposed deadline of 31 Oct.GIN1138 said:
Because Jezza is nothing if he's not a campaigner. Campaigning is what he does. It's in his DNA or that's what everyone thought.Anabobazina said:
Look what he did in 2017 when he was like "bring it on" - He was litterally a few thousand votes from being PM.
By running and hiding from the electorate he has basically destroyed his rasion d'etre...
It’s 21 September.
Have some patience man!!
And it won't be with Boris...0 -
Er, we've just had a poll that forecasts a Tory landslide bigger than Blair's.Anabobazina said:
Er, there aren’t enough of them...Philip_Thompson said:
That's assuming that Brexiteers are too stupid to realise that Remainers in Parliament are the problem and that they need to give Boris a majority to get the job done.Anabobazina said:
The strategy was to boil Boris slowly by waiting until after his self-imposed deadline of 31 Oct.GIN1138 said:
Because Jezza is nothing if he's not a campaigner. Campaigning is what he does. It's in his DNA or that's what everyone thought.Anabobazina said:
Look what he did in 2017 when he was like "bring it on" - He was litterally a few thousand votes from being PM.
By running and hiding from the electorate he has basically destroyed his rasion d'etre...
It’s 21 September.
Have some patience man!!0 -
Neither of us I think as labour will fold like a deck chair and allow one. But we will seeAnabobazina said:dyedwoolie said:
No, theyll let the ruined and finished labour party call the shots. L to the o to the lAnabobazina said:
Lol. Not going to happen.dyedwoolie said:
If LDs and SNP on board they can do it by amending the FTPAAndyJS said:
Labour currently has 38% of MPs so they can block an election unless some of them go rogue.HYUFD said:
There might be if the LDs, SNP and Tories vote for one, all would gain seats with Opinium unlike LabourAnabobazina said:There won’t be an election while ever Labour’s polling is in the doldrums. The FTPA doing its job I guess, removes power from the hands of the PM.
Okay, noted. Let’s see who is right...0 -
Emily Thornberry had a neat solution to Brexit the other day.
She said Labour MPs would vote for Bojo’s deal IF it was first put to a referendum, versus Remain.
That’s clever. In a world of terrible options that might just be the best, and help the country to heal. So clearly we won’t do this.0 -
The last time Labour polled more than 30% with any pollster was on 22nd May with Survation.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election0 -
Lib Dem gain Islington South and finsbury is on my bucket listByronic said:Emily Thornberry had a neat solution to Brexit the other day.
She said Labour MPs would vote for Bojo’s deal IF it was first put to a referendum, versus Remain.
That’s clever. In a world of,terrible options that might just be the best, and help the country to heal. So clearly we won’t do this.0 -
When was the last time the Conservatives polled 40% plus? I think the next time could be very soon.AndyJS said:The last time Labour polled more than 30% with any pollster was on 22nd May with Survation.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election0 -
Not true - only Yougov sometimes put the LDs ahead of Labour.Gabs2 said:
Given the Lib Dems are ahead of Labour with half the polling firns and have a way higher ceiling than Corbyn's Labour, there is a strong argument that it is Labour splitting the Lib Dem vote.Chris said:
I wonder - is anyone of normal intelligence with even the vaguest interest in politics not aware that under our electoral system it's advantageous to the party of government that the opposition vote is split?logical_song said:
Didn't think you would be able to justify your postChris said:
Another reminder of why it's a waste of time commenting here.logical_song said:
If "most politicians are quite privileged people who will be protected against the consequences of No Deal" and by implication don't care then why are so many putting their careers at risk to stop it?Chris said:I can't help thinking that all this talk of a Lib Dem revival is just another unicorn. Or maybe something worse than a unicorn.
In reality I can think of few things more conducive to Johnson getting an electoral mandate for No Deal (if that's what he wants) than a Lib Dem revival that would split the opposition vote.
I'm afraid that most politicians are quite privileged people who will be protected against the consequences of No Deal, and that - despite the self-serving rhetoric - there are only a relatively small number who really see avoiding it as their top priority.
You're also impying that Boris is somehow encouraging the LibDem revival - which, as a unicorn, wouldn't exist. Have you seen the results of the recent elections?
Did you even read that post through before clicking 'Post Comment'?
But thanks anyway - obviously I still need reminding!
But I think must be the Zeroth Law of Internet discussion that no view is so stupid or ignorant that some fool won't defend it, and no view is so self-evidently true that some fool won't deny it.0 -
More intriguingly, can Labour go below 20%, and stay there? I think yes, under CorbzPhilip_Thompson said:
When was the last time the Conservatives polled 40% plus? I think the next time could be very soon.AndyJS said:The last time Labour polled more than 30% with any pollster was on 22nd May with Survation.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election0 -
Labour will at least be able to count on Eddie izzard and that Greek bloke. And Picard.0
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No, I’m saying that there aren’t enough Brexiteers to trigger an election.Philip_Thompson said:
Er, we've just had a poll that forecasts a Tory landslide bigger than Blair's.Anabobazina said:
Er, there aren’t enough of them...Philip_Thompson said:
That's assuming that Brexiteers are too stupid to realise that Remainers in Parliament are the problem and that they need to give Boris a majority to get the job done.Anabobazina said:
The strategy was to boil Boris slowly by waiting until after his self-imposed deadline of 31 Oct.GIN1138 said:
Because Jezza is nothing if he's not a campaigner. Campaigning is what he does. It's in his DNA or that's what everyone thought.Anabobazina said:
Look what he did in 2017 when he was like "bring it on" - He was litterally a few thousand votes from being PM.
By running and hiding from the electorate he has basically destroyed his rasion d'etre...
It’s 21 September.
Have some patience man!!
You are getting too excited by a poll man!
Calm down. Think straight.0 -
Can they outpoll Frank Fields curiously specific party in Birkenhead?Byronic said:
More intriguingly, can Labour go below 20%, and stay there? I think yes, under CorbzPhilip_Thompson said:
When was the last time the Conservatives polled 40% plus? I think the next time could be very soon.AndyJS said:The last time Labour polled more than 30% with any pollster was on 22nd May with Survation.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election0 -
This thread will be yet another hubristic PB Tory keeper when the sands shift at some point.0
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Did I really see someone upthread run Electoral Calculus on Opinium?
Ye gods. You might as well run a ZX Spectrum random number generator and call it a forecast.0 -
It doesn't matter.Anabobazina said:
No, I’m saying that there aren’t enough Brexiteers to trigger an election.Philip_Thompson said:
Er, we've just had a poll that forecasts a Tory landslide bigger than Blair's.Anabobazina said:
Er, there aren’t enough of them...Philip_Thompson said:
That's assuming that Brexiteers are too stupid to realise that Remainers in Parliament are the problem and that they need to give Boris a majority to get the job done.Anabobazina said:
The strategy was to boil Boris slowly by waiting until after his self-imposed deadline of 31 Oct.GIN1138 said:
Because Jezza is nothing if he's not a campaigner. Campaigning is what he does. It's in his DNA or that's what everyone thought.Anabobazina said:
Look what he did in 2017 when he was like "bring it on" - He was litterally a few thousand votes from being PM.
By running and hiding from the electorate he has basically destroyed his rasion d'etre...
It’s 21 September.
Have some patience man!!
You are getting too excited by a poll man!
Calm down. Think straight.
The longer the opposition run scared of an election the more abject and humiliating they will be and the more they will suffer for it.0 -
So they are either ‘frit’ or ‘folding like a deckchair’.dyedwoolie said:
Neither of us I think as labour will fold like a deck chair and allow one. But we will seeAnabobazina said:dyedwoolie said:
No, theyll let the ruined and finished labour party call the shots. L to the o to the lAnabobazina said:
Lol. Not going to happen.dyedwoolie said:
If LDs and SNP on board they can do it by amending the FTPAAndyJS said:
Labour currently has 38% of MPs so they can block an election unless some of them go rogue.HYUFD said:
There might be if the LDs, SNP and Tories vote for one, all would gain seats with Opinium unlike LabourAnabobazina said:There won’t be an election while ever Labour’s polling is in the doldrums. The FTPA doing its job I guess, removes power from the hands of the PM.
Okay, noted. Let’s see who is right...
Only from the PB Tories.
Only on PB.0 -
They're both, but reality will dawn and they will have to fold. Because if they don't they'll be polling in single digits before long.Anabobazina said:
So they are either ‘frit’ or ‘folding like a deckchair’.dyedwoolie said:
Neither of us I think as labour will fold like a deck chair and allow one. But we will seeAnabobazina said:dyedwoolie said:
No, theyll let the ruined and finished labour party call the shots. L to the o to the lAnabobazina said:
Lol. Not going to happen.dyedwoolie said:
If LDs and SNP on board they can do it by amending the FTPAAndyJS said:
Labour currently has 38% of MPs so they can block an election unless some of them go rogue.HYUFD said:
There might be if the LDs, SNP and Tories vote for one, all would gain seats with Opinium unlike LabourAnabobazina said:There won’t be an election while ever Labour’s polling is in the doldrums. The FTPA doing its job I guess, removes power from the hands of the PM.
Okay, noted. Let’s see who is right...
Only from the PB Tories.
Only on PB.0
This discussion has been closed.