politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sporting Index open their general election seat markets
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sporting Index open their general election seat markets
I really enjoy spread betting, it is fun laced with huge risk which makes it fun, and allows you to open and close positions long before election day, plus in the past it has been very profitable so I’m glad Sporting Index have opened up these markets.
Comments
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FTP
Was there much evidence of disloyalty in the Coalition government? Was disloyalty really greater between June 2015 and June 2017 than in the Major Years or the Callaghan Years?148grss said:
The idea of a GE was another whip with which to beat MPs. "If you don't support the PM on this issue and the government fails, we will have a GE". Without that whip, there has been a massive increase in disloyalty to the government within the governing party (something to bear in mind with a potential Corbyn premiership).
Many political observers including Thatcher in the Major Years have said that MPs are allowed to be freer when the government has a healthy Majority and a certain amount of disloyalty is tolerated. When the majority is small or negative then every abstention can potentially make a difference, which is why it makes big news.
Disloyalty to the Johnson government has been a feature of his short term in office, but that has everything to do with Johnson and little to do with the FTPA.0 -
nearly first0
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Lol 'UKIP seats'0
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Ah, here it is.0
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Labour seem a touch on the low side.0
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Yes. That - even at a 0.5-1.5 spread - is surely free money?dyedwoolie said:Lol 'UKIP seats'
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Now 0.2-0.8 someone waded inSirNorfolkPassmore said:
Yes. That - even at a 0.5-1.5 spread - is surely free money?dyedwoolie said:Lol 'UKIP seats'
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I would argue that the coalition was a strong government, (although they did lose a vote on war, and they always threaded the needle of legislation to make sure things did happen because of the coalition agreement). But obviously Cameron was aware of his flank, within and without, otherwise he wouldn't have made the promise he did about a Brexit Referendum etc.eristdoof said:FTP
Was there much evidence of disloyalty in the Coalition government? Was disloyalty really greater between June 2015 and June 2017 than in the Major Years or the Callaghan Years?148grss said:
The idea of a GE was another whip with which to beat MPs. "If you don't support the PM on this issue and the government fails, we will have a GE". Without that whip, there has been a massive increase in disloyalty to the government within the governing party (something to bear in mind with a potential Corbyn premiership).
Many political observers including Thatcher in the Major Years have said that MPs are allowed to be freer when the government has a healthy Majority and a certain amount of disloyalty is tolerated. When the majority is small or negative then every abstention can potentially make a difference, which is why it makes big news.
Disloyalty to the Johnson government has been a feature of his short term in office, but that has everything to do with Johnson and little to do with the FTPA.
And I think you value disloyalty qualitatively not quantitatively; if you vote against your government knowing it will lead to that government losing a vote, that is different to voting against due to principle when you know the vote will pass anyway.0 -
Not intending to partake, but interesting to see the starting numbers.0
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The Greens are a sell at 2-2.5. There's a really good chance they still end up with only 1 seat and the chance of 3+ seats is pretty small.0
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Midpoint of one seat for UKIP!
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No wonder Labour don't want an election. 218 to 226 seats.0
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Think Lib Dems will be closer to 30 than 40. They'd probably need some surprise London gains to get over that mark.0
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At this point I'd be in favour of anything that helped lead to a decision, whatever it was . Unfortunately I doubt a legal view on prorogation helped that, but it was not looking good anyway.0
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Remember John Redwood & Co in the 90's?148grss said:
I would argue that the coalition was a strong government, (although they did lose a vote on war, and they always threaded the needle of legislation to make sure things did happen because of the coalition agreement). But obviously Cameron was aware of his flank, within and without, otherwise he wouldn't have made the promise he did about a Brexit Referendum etc.eristdoof said:FTP
Was there much evidence of disloyalty in the Coalition government? Was disloyalty really greater between June 2015 and June 2017 than in the Major Years or the Callaghan Years?148grss said:
The idea of a GE was another whip with which to beat MPs. "If you don't support the PM on this issue and the government fails, we will have a GE". Without that whip, there has been a massive increase in disloyalty to the government within the governing party (something to bear in mind with a potential Corbyn premiership).
Many political observers including Thatcher in the Major Years have said that MPs are allowed to be freer when the government has a healthy Majority and a certain amount of disloyalty is tolerated. When the majority is small or negative then every abstention can potentially make a difference, which is why it makes big news.
Disloyalty to the Johnson government has been a feature of his short term in office, but that has everything to do with Johnson and little to do with the FTPA.
And I think you value disloyalty qualitatively not quantitatively; if you vote against your government knowing it will lead to that government losing a vote, that is different to voting against due to principle when you know the vote will pass anyway.0 -
I will join in but not yet. The circumstances of any election are going to be critical this time.2
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613/641 the general spread.0
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Middle of each range (compared with 2017, ignoring by-election and defection) implies:
Con - 306 (-11 or 12 with Speaker)
Lab - 222 (-40)
SNP - 47 (+12)
LD - 41 (+29)
PC - 4 (n/c)
Brexit - 4 (+4)
Green - 2.25 (+1.25)
UKIP - 1 (+1)
This is a very risky market. I don't share TSE's confidence in the Lib Dem total although can see them in the 30s, and think Labour are probably a buy (although there's a big downside - it's possible they could be hammered). There is probably enough anti-SNP tactical voting for them to be a sell (although they will make gains). Brexit are a risky sell (the least they can get is zero but it's just possible they could get dozens so downside risk there). UKIP are a non-risky sell - I don't see how they can conceivably win anything - doubt they'll keep a deposit.0 -
Did you manage to sell UKIP at 0.5 though ?AlastairMeeks said:I will join in but not yet. The circumstances of any election are going to be critical this time.
Still a sell at 0.2 you think ?0 -
I don't see where a second Green seat is going to come from. Can't see them winning either Norwich South or Bristol West with the current incumbents in place who are very popular in their constituencies.1
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Size of Any Majority is an interesting one. If you're convinced it will be a Hung Parliament that's a good return.0
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No, I would have been a wee laddieeristdoof said:
Remember John Redwood & Co in the 90's?148grss said:
I would argue that the coalition was a strong government, (although they did lose a vote on war, and they always threaded the needle of legislation to make sure things did happen because of the coalition agreement). But obviously Cameron was aware of his flank, within and without, otherwise he wouldn't have made the promise he did about a Brexit Referendum etc.eristdoof said:FTP
Was there much evidence of disloyalty in the Coalition government? Was disloyalty really greater between June 2015 and June 2017 than in the Major Years or the Callaghan Years?148grss said:
The idea of a GE was another whip with which to beat MPs. "If you don't support the PM on this issue and the government fails, we will have a GE". Without that whip, there has been a massive increase in disloyalty to the government within the governing party (something to bear in mind with a potential Corbyn premiership).
Many political observers including Thatcher in the Major Years have said that MPs are allowed to be freer when the government has a healthy Majority and a certain amount of disloyalty is tolerated. When the majority is small or negative then every abstention can potentially make a difference, which is why it makes big news.
Disloyalty to the Johnson government has been a feature of his short term in office, but that has everything to do with Johnson and little to do with the FTPA.
And I think you value disloyalty qualitatively not quantitatively; if you vote against your government knowing it will lead to that government losing a vote, that is different to voting against due to principle when you know the vote will pass anyway.0 -
Check that that market goes negative.OblitusSumMe said:Size of Any Majority is an interesting one. If you're convinced it will be a Hung Parliament that's a good return.
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Spare pair of trousers needed if Kantar is correct on that one.OblitusSumMe said:Size of Any Majority is an interesting one. If you're convinced it will be a Hung Parliament that's a good return.
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Yeah, we are stuck on one seat unless Remain Alliance is a real thing and it includes LabourAndyJS said:I don't see where a second Green seat is going to come from. Can't see them winning either Norwich South or Bristol West with the current incumbents in place who are very popular in their constituencies.
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Mr. Artist, I'd be wary of the upside risk. If the Lib Dems go into an election with a clear policy whilst Labour has its fence-sitting mess and Corbyn as potential PM, whilst the Conservatives are busy trying to eat their own face and are led by a jester, the yellows could make very significant gains.0
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Yes it is.Pulpstar said:
Did you manage to sell UKIP at 0.5 though ?AlastairMeeks said:I will join in but not yet. The circumstances of any election are going to be critical this time.
Still a sell at 0.2 you think ?0 -
0 stop. No way I could sell that personally.tlg86 said:
Check that that market goes negative.OblitusSumMe said:Size of Any Majority is an interesting one. If you're convinced it will be a Hung Parliament that's a good return.
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That's probably right, although they did apparently top the poll in nine constituencies in June and will probably be given a free run by the Lib Dems in some seats. I do agree 3 is unlikely though.OblitusSumMe said:The Greens are a sell at 2-2.5. There's a really good chance they still end up with only 1 seat and the chance of 3+ seats is pretty small.
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The Greens were absolutely hammered by tactical voting/Corbyn surge at 2017GE, so they're now 53% behind in Bristol West, and it's still probably one of the more promising targets.AndyJS said:I don't see where a second Green seat is going to come from. Can't see them winning either Norwich South or Bristol West with the current incumbents in place who are very popular in their constituencies.
They've been polling well, but I don't see them gaining a seat anywhere without some major betrayal by the Labour leadership and the local candidates.0 -
Going to be an odd election. They were savagely squeezed by Corbyn in 2017 and I cannot see that being repeated. Agree I can't really see them gaining more than one, and one is a stretch - as you say, their targets are pretty much all reasonably strong Labour incumbents.AndyJS said:I don't see where a second Green seat is going to come from. Can't see them winning either Norwich South or Bristol West with the current incumbents in place who are very popular in their constituencies.
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Yeah - that's why it's interesting!Pulpstar said:
Spare pair of trousers needed if Kantar is correct on that one.OblitusSumMe said:Size of Any Majority is an interesting one. If you're convinced it will be a Hung Parliament that's a good return.
If you decide to buy on the back of the HYUFD Prophecy then you're also still covered in the case that Johnson completely implodes and Corbyn exceeds his 2017GE surge.0 -
Well I've sold UKIP @ 0.2 for £75.
Hopefully no change in the voting system before the election...1 -
Greens will be squeezed again.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Going to be an odd election. They were savagely squeezed by Corbyn in 2017 and I cannot see that being repeated. Agree I can't really see them gaining more than one, and one is a stretch - as you say, their targets are pretty much all reasonably strong Labour incumbents.AndyJS said:I don't see where a second Green seat is going to come from. Can't see them winning either Norwich South or Bristol West with the current incumbents in place who are very popular in their constituencies.
I'm more than happy campaigning for the local elections, but at the GE I will vote LDs as they are the only ones who can beat the Tories in St Albans.1 -
Whether by good fortune or deliberate action Labour have very strong incumbent MPs in the Green target seats who have strong personal appeal to likely Green voters.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
That's probably right, although they did apparently top the poll in nine constituencies in June and will probably be given a free run by the Lib Dems in some seats. I do agree 3 is unlikely though.OblitusSumMe said:The Greens are a sell at 2-2.5. There's a really good chance they still end up with only 1 seat and the chance of 3+ seats is pretty small.
If Kate Hoey was standing for re-election in Bristol West then it would be a different story.0 -
Even if it included Labour (and it won't) Green target seats are mainly Labour seats and they obviously wouldn't stand down in held seats. Perhaps they'd stand down somewhere like the Isle of Wight, but that's very blue nowadays so a huge ask.148grss said:
Yeah, we are stuck on one seat unless Remain Alliance is a real thing and it includes LabourAndyJS said:I don't see where a second Green seat is going to come from. Can't see them winning either Norwich South or Bristol West with the current incumbents in place who are very popular in their constituencies.
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Norwich South is my constituency. It will probably be a labour hold but the LDs held it in 2010 kicking out former HS Charles Clarke, they may gave a resurgence. The Greens will do well but high teens well I think sadly, their pockets are the student rich areas of west earlham and towards the city centre, but they did very well in the council and euro elections. If labour collapse I could see LD gain but not enough for a green gain. Tories will be moribund 15 to 20% as per usual hereAndyJS said:I don't see where a second Green seat is going to come from. Can't see them winning either Norwich South or Bristol West with the current incumbents in place who are very popular in their constituencies.
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I expect the UKIP line to move down to 0 - 0.5 in a day or so.0
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Thangam Debonnaire is always a teller for remain stuff in the Commons. Lewis is a bit more of a Corbynite but still very remain, didn't vote to trigger A50.OblitusSumMe said:
Whether by good fortune or deliberate action Labour have very strong incumbent MPs in the Green target seats who have strong personal appeal to likely Green voters.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
That's probably right, although they did apparently top the poll in nine constituencies in June and will probably be given a free run by the Lib Dems in some seats. I do agree 3 is unlikely though.OblitusSumMe said:The Greens are a sell at 2-2.5. There's a really good chance they still end up with only 1 seat and the chance of 3+ seats is pretty small.
If Kate Hoey was standing for re-election in Bristol West then it would be a different story.0 -
Roy dropped0
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The greens could win multiple seats if there is a formal remain alliance. Otherwise it is 0, 1 or 2, probably 1.AndyJS said:I don't see where a second Green seat is going to come from. Can't see them winning either Norwich South or Bristol West with the current incumbents in place who are very popular in their constituencies.
Getting short of Brexit seats at 3 would be erm....brave. I would be expecting them to trade closer to 10-12. They are only 24 on bf to have most seats (well any other party is effectively them at this stage). If they get most seats they probably have over 200.
That 4% scenario according to the BF market alone gives them around 8 expected seats.1 -
I thought it didn’t start till tomorrow!dyedwoolie said:Roy dropped
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I don't really see the BXP making many gains, they are big enough to be a spoiler but not to win seats. I think 6 max, 1-3 more likely.noneoftheabove said:
The greens could win multiple seats if there is a formal remain alliance. Otherwise it is 0, 1 or 2, probably 1.AndyJS said:I don't see where a second Green seat is going to come from. Can't see them winning either Norwich South or Bristol West with the current incumbents in place who are very popular in their constituencies.
Getting short of Brexit seats at 3 would be erm....brave. I would be expecting them to trade closer to 10-12. They are only 24 on bf to have most seats (well any other party is effectively them at this stage). If they get most seats they probably have over 200.
That 4% scenario according to the BF market alone gives them around 8 expected seats.0 -
Curran and woakes in for Overton, stokes plays as a batsman1
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Yes 0 is most likely and you would win 3 units if that happened. Betfair thinks there is a 4% chance you lose around 200 units though!148grss said:
I don't really see the BXP making many gains, they are big enough to be a spoiler but not to win seats. I think 6 max, 1-3 more likely.noneoftheabove said:
The greens could win multiple seats if there is a formal remain alliance. Otherwise it is 0, 1 or 2, probably 1.AndyJS said:I don't see where a second Green seat is going to come from. Can't see them winning either Norwich South or Bristol West with the current incumbents in place who are very popular in their constituencies.
Getting short of Brexit seats at 3 would be erm....brave. I would be expecting them to trade closer to 10-12. They are only 24 on bf to have most seats (well any other party is effectively them at this stage). If they get most seats they probably have over 200.
That 4% scenario according to the BF market alone gives them around 8 expected seats.0 -
Which seats do the Lib Dems stand aside in that the Greens can win from Labour?noneoftheabove said:
The greens could win multiple seats if there is a formal remain alliance. Otherwise it is 0, 1 or 2, probably 1.AndyJS said:I don't see where a second Green seat is going to come from. Can't see them winning either Norwich South or Bristol West with the current incumbents in place who are very popular in their constituencies.
Getting short of Brexit seats at 3 would be erm....brave. I would be expecting them to trade closer to 10-12. They are only 24 on bf to have most seats (well any other party is effectively them at this stage). If they get most seats they probably have over 200.
That 4% scenario according to the BF market alone gives them around 8 expected seats.
I don't see any.0 -
Mr. grss, hard to be specific given how turbulent politics is, but I agree with your general view that BP will underperform. Faragian vehicles are not good at FPTP elections. Given how long he's been in politics it's quite odd.
However, that doesn't mean they'll have a small impact. They could easily let long shot candidates come through the middle in a string of seats.0 -
Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/11717559209441853480 -
The Ch4 mrp polling did suggest the Tories are not too far behind in a number of longer shot northern seats due to BXP labour leave hooveringMorris_Dancer said:Mr. grss, hard to be specific given how turbulent politics is, but I agree with your general view that BP will underperform. Faragian vehicles are not good at FPTP elections. Given how long he's been in politics it's quite odd.
However, that doesn't mean they'll have a small impact. They could easily let long shot candidates come through the middle in a string of seats.0 -
LDs will do no better than third place in Norwich South. Clive Lewis is very safe.dyedwoolie said:
Norwich South is my constituency. It will probably be a labour hold but the LDs held it in 2010 kicking out former HS Charles Clarke, they may gave a resurgence. The Greens will do well but high teens well I think sadly, their pockets are the student rich areas of west earlham and towards the city centre, but they did very well in the council and euro elections. If labour collapse I could see LD gain but not enough for a green gain. Tories will be moribund 15 to 20% as per usual hereAndyJS said:I don't see where a second Green seat is going to come from. Can't see them winning either Norwich South or Bristol West with the current incumbents in place who are very popular in their constituencies.
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He should be. If hes not labour ars getting a poundingjustin124 said:
LDs will do no better than third place in Norwich South. Clive Lewis is very safe.dyedwoolie said:
Norwich South is my constituency. It will probably be a labour hold but the LDs held it in 2010 kicking out former HS Charles Clarke, they may gave a resurgence. The Greens will do well but high teens well I think sadly, their pockets are the student rich areas of west earlham and towards the city centre, but they did very well in the council and euro elections. If labour collapse I could see LD gain but not enough for a green gain. Tories will be moribund 15 to 20% as per usual hereAndyJS said:I don't see where a second Green seat is going to come from. Can't see them winning either Norwich South or Bristol West with the current incumbents in place who are very popular in their constituencies.
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Maybe Sheffield Central? They've done very well in locals and Euros, Sheffield Hallam bound to be a battle diverting Labour activists, very large student vote (who largely aren't the same people as 2017).OblitusSumMe said:
Which seats do the Lib Dems stand aside in that the Greens can win from Labour?noneoftheabove said:
The greens could win multiple seats if there is a formal remain alliance. Otherwise it is 0, 1 or 2, probably 1.AndyJS said:I don't see where a second Green seat is going to come from. Can't see them winning either Norwich South or Bristol West with the current incumbents in place who are very popular in their constituencies.
Getting short of Brexit seats at 3 would be erm....brave. I would be expecting them to trade closer to 10-12. They are only 24 on bf to have most seats (well any other party is effectively them at this stage). If they get most seats they probably have over 200.
That 4% scenario according to the BF market alone gives them around 8 expected seats.
I don't see any.
I agree it feels unlikely, but possibly the one with the strongest case.0 -
That's true, why I suggest they will be spoilers not gainers themselves. Difficulty with BXP is where will they be spoilers? If you think BXP are going to do well, you should also assume LDs will do well (because some Tory seats will split between BXP/Con/LD alongside the typical LD vote) and it is hard to know what the BXP effect on Labour will be. Some argue in places like Stoke BXP would make it easier for BXP; Labour voters more likely to jump ship to Farage than Johnson. I am uncertain. I think that the Tory voters in those seats are just as likely to vote Farage, and that the Labour vote would hold more; not only that LDs and Greens in those areas would vote tactically to prevent a Con or BXP win. I think we could have a very lopsided FPTP election, where BXP and Cons do well in overall % but the map looks a lot more LD than people expected.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. grss, hard to be specific given how turbulent politics is, but I agree with your general view that BP will underperform. Faragian vehicles are not good at FPTP elections. Given how long he's been in politics it's quite odd.
However, that doesn't mean they'll have a small impact. They could easily let long shot candidates come through the middle in a string of seats.0 -
What has Arron Banks got to do with the Brexit Party ? He's as much a part of that as Dominic Cummings - None.GIN1138 said:Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/11717559209441853480 -
Whenever I play the spreads I get my arse handed to me on a plate, and they close the markets down regularly. Usually when I need them the most.
I don’t like them, but appreciate others have fun with them.
Enjoy!1 -
Best prices - Outcome next UK GE
NOM 5/7
Con Maj 2/1
Lab Maj 10/10 -
If the Tories were to stand down in any seats to give the Brexit Party a clear run, presumably there would be a good chance of Independent Conservative candidates in most of them.148grss said:
I don't really see the BXP making many gains, they are big enough to be a spoiler but not to win seats. I think 6 max, 1-3 more likely.noneoftheabove said:
The greens could win multiple seats if there is a formal remain alliance. Otherwise it is 0, 1 or 2, probably 1.AndyJS said:I don't see where a second Green seat is going to come from. Can't see them winning either Norwich South or Bristol West with the current incumbents in place who are very popular in their constituencies.
Getting short of Brexit seats at 3 would be erm....brave. I would be expecting them to trade closer to 10-12. They are only 24 on bf to have most seats (well any other party is effectively them at this stage). If they get most seats they probably have over 200.
That 4% scenario according to the BF market alone gives them around 8 expected seats.0 -
One to be treasured alongside chaos with Ed Miliband perhaps?GIN1138 said:Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/11717559209441853480 -
My problem with this, and with Tory strategy of saying "we'll nick a northern Leave seat for every St Albans", is that Labour are historically very good in these areas at strong-arming their reluctant voters from the estates when push comes to shove. The Brexit Party campaign in these areas will, meanwhile, be largely an air war.dyedwoolie said:
The Ch4 mrp polling did suggest the Tories are not too far behind in a number of longer shot northern seats due to BXP labour leave hooveringMorris_Dancer said:Mr. grss, hard to be specific given how turbulent politics is, but I agree with your general view that BP will underperform. Faragian vehicles are not good at FPTP elections. Given how long he's been in politics it's quite odd.
However, that doesn't mean they'll have a small impact. They could easily let long shot candidates come through the middle in a string of seats.
Maybe this is the election where the old certainties like that fall apart. But I'd not bet the farm on it.0 -
Hmm. An interesting one. The Greens could score 40% of the vote there and come a close second.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Maybe Sheffield Central? They've done very well in locals and Euros, Sheffield Hallam bound to be a battle diverting Labour activists, very large student vote (who largely aren't the same people as 2017).OblitusSumMe said:
Which seats do the Lib Dems stand aside in that the Greens can win from Labour?noneoftheabove said:
The greens could win multiple seats if there is a formal remain alliance. Otherwise it is 0, 1 or 2, probably 1.AndyJS said:I don't see where a second Green seat is going to come from. Can't see them winning either Norwich South or Bristol West with the current incumbents in place who are very popular in their constituencies.
Getting short of Brexit seats at 3 would be erm....brave. I would be expecting them to trade closer to 10-12. They are only 24 on bf to have most seats (well any other party is effectively them at this stage). If they get most seats they probably have over 200.
That 4% scenario according to the BF market alone gives them around 8 expected seats.
I don't see any.
I agree it feels unlikely, but possibly the one with the strongest case.0 -
I suspect much of the party will be a bit miffed that Mr. Johnson has insulted messrs Farage and Banks. They have long memories and could cause massive problems with GE seat targetingGIN1138 said:Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1171755920944185348
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I now like Labour's policy , a deal then a referendum with the deal v remain.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Artist, I'd be wary of the upside risk. If the Lib Dems go into an election with a clear policy whilst Labour has its fence-sitting mess and Corbyn as potential PM, whilst the Conservatives are busy trying to eat their own face and are led by a jester, the yellows could make very significant gains.
It is a sensible position for a deeply divided split country.
It is also better than the Lib Dems revoke or the Brexit Parties leave with no deal.
Harold Wilson's position in regard to the 1975 referendum, Labour 2019 are copying.
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What are they trying to infer? Is it just a smear to make people think of the Russia connections and sympathies or does it have some substance? I guess we will never know.DecrepitJohnL said:
One to be treasured alongside chaos with Ed Miliband perhaps?GIN1138 said:Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/11717559209441853480 -
Yes, I think it's a big ask. The thing it has going for it, though, is Labour have a very tough neighbouring defence whereas Greens could potentially flood it. If Labour get the resource allocation wrong, they could be in shocked.OblitusSumMe said:
Hmm. An interesting one. The Greens could score 40% of the vote there and come a close second.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Maybe Sheffield Central? They've done very well in locals and Euros, Sheffield Hallam bound to be a battle diverting Labour activists, very large student vote (who largely aren't the same people as 2017).OblitusSumMe said:
Which seats do the Lib Dems stand aside in that the Greens can win from Labour?noneoftheabove said:
The greens could win multiple seats if there is a formal remain alliance. Otherwise it is 0, 1 or 2, probably 1.AndyJS said:I don't see where a second Green seat is going to come from. Can't see them winning either Norwich South or Bristol West with the current incumbents in place who are very popular in their constituencies.
Getting short of Brexit seats at 3 would be erm....brave. I would be expecting them to trade closer to 10-12. They are only 24 on bf to have most seats (well any other party is effectively them at this stage). If they get most seats they probably have over 200.
That 4% scenario according to the BF market alone gives them around 8 expected seats.
I don't see any.
I agree it feels unlikely, but possibly the one with the strongest case.0 -
They can both be right.GIN1138 said:Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/11717559209441853481 -
"Game on: federal election gets underway
Justin Trudeau visits Governor-General Julie Payette at Rideau Hall"
https://www.theglobeandmail.com0 -
fruitcakes, loons and...beentheredonethat said:
I suspect much of the party will be a bit miffed that Mr. Johnson has insulted messrs Farage and Banks. They have long memories and could cause massive problems with GE seat targetingGIN1138 said:Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/11717559209441853480 -
I think so. A man who has at best flirted with defying the law and been incompetent in following it has few legs to stand on.DecrepitJohnL said:
One to be treasured alongside chaos with Ed Miliband perhaps?GIN1138 said:Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/11717559209441853480 -
And Mr. Howard with cranks and gadfliesTOPPING said:
fruitcakes, loons and...beentheredonethat said:
I suspect much of the party will be a bit miffed that Mr. Johnson has insulted messrs Farage and Banks. They have long memories and could cause massive problems with GE seat targetingGIN1138 said:Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1171755920944185348
0 -
I can.AndyJS said:I don't see where a second Green seat is going to come from. Can't see them winning either Norwich South or Bristol West with the current incumbents in place who are very popular in their constituencies.
A lot has changed since 2017GE and the sort of people who love Extinction Rebellion live there and it’s an obvious alternative for left-wing voters who no longer want to go Labour or still don’t quite trust the Lib Dems. Bristol West could go three-way marginal with Greens winning.
The real longshots for them are Hove, Kemptown and Cambridge, as well as Norwich South and Bristol West.1 -
Bxp asked for a lot. I assume this is the counter saying 'no official pact" with a bid and a wink that they need to help each other later.beentheredonethat said:
I suspect much of the party will be a bit miffed that Mr. Johnson has insulted messrs Farage and Banks. They have long memories and could cause massive problems with GE seat targetingGIN1138 said:Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/11717559209441853480 -
The bit about Banks was completely unneeded - I mean I know he's not well liked but he's not part of The Brexit Party.beentheredonethat said:
I suspect much of the party will be a bit miffed that Mr. Johnson has insulted messrs Farage and Banks. They have long memories and could cause massive problems with GE seat targetingGIN1138 said:Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1171755920944185348
Anyway this is a tactical mistake
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7452187/Boris-Johnson-launches-extraordinary-attack-not-fit-proper-Nigel-Farage.html
Daily Mail always a good place to gauge Brexit/Tory party sentiment:
Justin case, United Kingdom, United Kingdom, 2 hours ago
let's all get behind Nigel. I have Boris a chance he not the man for the job it's a becoming quite obvious. I'm beginning to think hell give away everything we want just to save his own skin
9:1 like ratio.0 -
Well, both had abundant evidence to back them up. Anyone for gay donkeys or mining the asteroids?beentheredonethat said:
And Mr. Howard with cranks and gadfliesTOPPING said:
fruitcakes, loons and...beentheredonethat said:
I suspect much of the party will be a bit miffed that Mr. Johnson has insulted messrs Farage and Banks. They have long memories and could cause massive problems with GE seat targetingGIN1138 said:Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/11717559209441853480 -
Money to be made on Labour.0
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Huge variable on this market is the timing of the election - surely it has to be this year - this mad era of self harm can’t continue surely ?0
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BREAKING: The Prime Minister just announced that royal proclamations dissolving Parliament and calling for new elections have been issued under the Great Seal. Polling date is 21 October 2019.0
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He should gone for a prorogation for 5 years.AndyJS said:"Game on: federal election gets underway
Justin Trudeau visits Governor-General Julie Payette at Rideau Hall"
https://www.theglobeandmail.com0 -
That might be so, butAlastairMeeks said:
Well, both had abundant evidence to back them up. Anyone for gay donkeys or mining the asteroids?beentheredonethat said:
And Mr. Howard with cranks and gadfliesTOPPING said:
fruitcakes, loons and...beentheredonethat said:
I suspect much of the party will be a bit miffed that Mr. Johnson has insulted messrs Farage and Banks. They have long memories and could cause massive problems with GE seat targetingGIN1138 said:Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1171755920944185348
Is it really good tactics for the Tories to shoot down their traditionalist Scottish vote and potential brexit switcher Johnny Come Latelies on the same day ?0 -
Canada's allowed to have an election!AndyJS said:"Game on: federal election gets underway
Justin Trudeau visits Governor-General Julie Payette at Rideau Hall"
https://www.theglobeandmail.com
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The Great seal O_O !?!??!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Tissue_Price said:BREAKING: The Prime Minister just announced that royal proclamations dissolving Parliament and calling for new elections have been issued under the Great Seal. Polling date is 21 October 2019.
Is this Canada though /0 -
One added complication is that social media campaigns are becoming ever more sophisticated. This is one reason PMQs consisted of Corbyn asking questions about buses, and May ignored them before having a rant in the sixth question when Corbyn could not reply.
See this recent Telegraph article about the sorts of things that are now easily possible and already used by Boris. It is not just the Russians!
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2019/09/07/inside-nationbuilder-californian-data-targeting-start-up-delivered/
ETA: the point for betting purposes is that much of the campaign will be invisible to us. I can see what posters the LibDems have launched but not what they've sent to 100 key voters on the subject of international bridges.0 -
I'm just going on this tweet:Pulpstar said:
The Great seal O_O !?!??!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Tissue_Price said:BREAKING: The Prime Minister just announced that royal proclamations dissolving Parliament and calling for new elections have been issued under the Great Seal. Polling date is 21 October 2019.
https://twitter.com/yuanyi_z/status/11717973495947304970 -
Good choice.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Maybe Sheffield Central? They've done very well in locals and Euros, Sheffield Hallam bound to be a battle diverting Labour activists, very large student vote (who largely aren't the same people as 2017).OblitusSumMe said:
Which seats do the Lib Dems stand aside in that the Greens can win from Labour?noneoftheabove said:
The greens could win multiple seats if there is a formal remain alliance. Otherwise it is 0, 1 or 2, probably 1.AndyJS said:I don't see where a second Green seat is going to come from. Can't see them winning either Norwich South or Bristol West with the current incumbents in place who are very popular in their constituencies.
Getting short of Brexit seats at 3 would be erm....brave. I would be expecting them to trade closer to 10-12. They are only 24 on bf to have most seats (well any other party is effectively them at this stage). If they get most seats they probably have over 200.
That 4% scenario according to the BF market alone gives them around 8 expected seats.
I don't see any.
I agree it feels unlikely, but possibly the one with the strongest case.0 -
Mr. City, negotiating a deal then campaigning against it is certainly a distinct policy.
On spreads: a few years ago I was going to look at them for F1, and then they stopped the points market, shifting to a rubbish placement market instead. Shame, although maybe it saved me a bundle of cash.0 -
What the actual **** fuck is going on? Why rule out a deal so categorically? What if there's an official Remain alliance? ARGH!beentheredonethat said:
I suspect much of the party will be a bit miffed that Mr. Johnson has insulted messrs Farage and Banks. They have long memories and could cause massive problems with GE seat targetingGIN1138 said:Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/11717559209441853480 -
And after that 5 years of Corbyn/Sturgeon Gov't to look forward to.GIN1138 said:
I think we could be stuck in this dreadful state for many more months or even years yet...TGOHF said:Huge variable on this market is the timing of the election - surely it has to be this year - this mad era of self harm can’t continue surely ?
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What were they before GE 2017AndyJS said:No wonder Labour don't want an election. 218 to 226 seats.
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It could and should have been done more tactfully. We know Cummings hates Farage - does he hate Banks though ?blueblue said:
What the actual **** fuck is going on? Why rule out a deal so categorically? What if there's an official Remain alliance? ARGH!beentheredonethat said:
I suspect much of the party will be a bit miffed that Mr. Johnson has insulted messrs Farage and Banks. They have long memories and could cause massive problems with GE seat targetingGIN1138 said:Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/11717559209441853480 -
300 ups at 3 compares quite well to the betfair outright majority market.surbiton19 said:Money to be made on Labour.
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The other question to ask is: "Is there anywhere that the LDs trust our ground game enough that they would feel confident letting the Greens have a punt over them?" and the likely answer is "No, because the Greens can't organise a piss up in a brewery"... I like being a Green, but we are absolutely terrible at campaigning outside of Local Elections, and our internal organisation is rubbish...SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Maybe Sheffield Central? They've done very well in locals and Euros, Sheffield Hallam bound to be a battle diverting Labour activists, very large student vote (who largely aren't the same people as 2017).OblitusSumMe said:
Which seats do the Lib Dems stand aside in that the Greens can win from Labour?noneoftheabove said:
The greens could win multiple seats if there is a formal remain alliance. Otherwise it is 0, 1 or 2, probably 1.AndyJS said:I don't see where a second Green seat is going to come from. Can't see them winning either Norwich South or Bristol West with the current incumbents in place who are very popular in their constituencies.
Getting short of Brexit seats at 3 would be erm....brave. I would be expecting them to trade closer to 10-12. They are only 24 on bf to have most seats (well any other party is effectively them at this stage). If they get most seats they probably have over 200.
That 4% scenario according to the BF market alone gives them around 8 expected seats.
I don't see any.
I agree it feels unlikely, but possibly the one with the strongest case.0 -
A lot depends for the Greens (and to a lesser degree PC) where LDs stand down as quid pro quo for the recent bye election.AndyJS said:I don't see where a second Green seat is going to come from. Can't see them winning either Norwich South or Bristol West with the current incumbents in place who are very popular in their constituencies.
To a certain degree BXP could be affected too by a Tory stand down.0 -
Lib Dems may give Greens a, clear run in those two seats in return for them not standing in the west and Cambridgeshire.Casino_Royale said:
I can.AndyJS said:I don't see where a second Green seat is going to come from. Can't see them winning either Norwich South or Bristol West with the current incumbents in place who are very popular in their constituencies.
A lot has changed since 2017GE and the sort of people who love Extinction Rebellion live there and it’s an obvious alternative for left-wing voters who no longer want to go Labour or still don’t quite trust the Lib Dems. Bristol West could go three-way marginal with Greens winning.
The real longshots for them are Hove, Kemptown and Cambridge, as well as Norwich South and Bristol West.0 -
Looks a close election, the Liberals and Conservative Party of Canada both in the mid 30s though Trudeau still leads Scheer as preferred PMTissue_Price said:
I'm just going on this tweet:Pulpstar said:
The Great seal O_O !?!??!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Tissue_Price said:BREAKING: The Prime Minister just announced that royal proclamations dissolving Parliament and calling for new elections have been issued under the Great Seal. Polling date is 21 October 2019.
https://twitter.com/yuanyi_z/status/1171797349594730497
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_Canadian_federal_election0 -
YesPulpstar said:
It could and should have been done more tactfully. We know Cummings hates Farage - does he hate Banks though ?blueblue said:
What the actual **** fuck is going on? Why rule out a deal so categorically? What if there's an official Remain alliance? ARGH!beentheredonethat said:
I suspect much of the party will be a bit miffed that Mr. Johnson has insulted messrs Farage and Banks. They have long memories and could cause massive problems with GE seat targetingGIN1138 said:Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1171755920944185348
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And why exactly are the Conservatives letting Cummings commit unforced error after unforced error, strategic disaster after strategic disaster? This is madness of Nick Timothy proportions!beentheredonethat said:
YesPulpstar said:
It could and should have been done more tactfully. We know Cummings hates Farage - does he hate Banks though ?blueblue said:
What the actual **** fuck is going on? Why rule out a deal so categorically? What if there's an official Remain alliance? ARGH!beentheredonethat said:
I suspect much of the party will be a bit miffed that Mr. Johnson has insulted messrs Farage and Banks. They have long memories and could cause massive problems with GE seat targetingGIN1138 said:Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/11717559209441853480 -
The Brexit Party will only do a Deal with the Tories if Boris dumps the Withdrawal Agreement completely, even minus the backstop, which he will not do.GIN1138 said:Interesting that Downing St. is using the "fit and proper" test against Farage and Banks on the day a court has found that the government may have mislead the Queen and acted illegally?
https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1171755920944185348
However they have said they will not stand against the 20 or so Tory MPs who voted against the Withdrawal Agreement even at MV3 and against further extension past October 31st and are diehard No Dealers0 -
If 50+ MPs want to agree a deal with Boris he’s home and dry.CarlottaVance said:
I’ll believe it when I see it. I still don’t think he’s got a quarter of those.0
