politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Boris Johnson ignores the no deal law then 50/1 on him bein
Comments
-
or labour votersChris said:
Just as there is an extremely simple narrative within a herd of lemmings, of course.Alanbrooke said:
a lot of truth in thatCaptainBuzzkill said:If I could offer a suggestion to those who are currently utterly giddy with every rumour and tweet relating to the goings on in parliament.
Stand back and have a look at the bigger picture.
Perhaps even chat with normal people who have rounded lives and don't sit obsessing about politics.
I think you might find that the wider perception is more like:
1. Johnson is trying to get Brexit through
2. Parliament are stopping him implementing the referendum result
For the vast majority of normal people it goes no deeper than that.
Which is why the swivel-eyed headbangers on here are in all likelihood going to get an enormous shock the morning after the GE.
here we analyse the inside of a maggots arse. Most of it is just wasted pixels.
In the wider world there is a much simpler narrative people just arent that interested in politics/0 -
If there wasn't so much at stake the Brexit psychodrama would be the most hilarious thing ever.Morris_Dancer said:I reserve the right to laugh myself to death if the PCP returns to reason and subjects the PM to a no confidence vote.
Don't think it'll happen immediately, mind.0 -
Hammond, Stewart and so many others have been thrown out, and you're still a member??Big_G_NorthWales said:
A fight for the soul of the party. May common sense prevailNigelb said:
The party is completely united...CarlottaVance said:
Accept Bill and get RA
Reinstate the mps
Seek an election for the 15th October
All on monday
And then prorogue parliament0 -
There's no border posts.williamglenn said:
Sorry, but how does making cross-border trade without paying tariffs a criminal act protect the Good Friday Agreement?Gabs2 said:
I understand there are three areas at stake:eek said:
So how does agrifood resolve all the other markets, taxes and laws...Scott_P said:
- People
- Customs
- Live animals
People seems to be dealt with by CTA/Schengen opt out for Ireland. Customs can be done by making it a criminal act in each side's domestic law. Live animals os a thorny one but looks like Boris is playing for DUP to back down.0 -
And what clueless diehard remainers like you don't realise is that the Tory party is not your party any more.HYUFD said:
What utter crap, the latest poll gives a 10% Tory lead what clueless diehard Remainers like you cannot understand is the people have had enough, they are fed up with being patronised by the likes of you and by a Commons which refuses to respect their Leave vote which is why Boris will win the next general election and crush Corbyn Labour once and for all into the bargainCicero said:I think the past 24 hours have been utterly devastating for the Conservatives. Worse than Black Wednesday by a significant factor.
The optics are truly awful. Starting with Johnson's bullshit speech outside Number 10 being drowned out by booing. Losing a phlanx of the most solidly Tory MPs you could imagine through your own childish intransigence. The utterly bollocks "rowing back from austerity", Lee crossing the floor, the much bigger defeat than expected and the body language of Rees Mogg. 100,000 signing up to vote in 24 hours- the *same 24 hours* as the Tory government imploded.
This is the inflection point when the Tories can't get it back.
I think the polls will be increasingly terrifying for Johnson- no one likes losers, and they particularly don't like entitled bastard losers.
I also think that tactical voting against the Tories will accelerate the losses they are going to make.
1997 may not be the low point for the Tories- this time I don't think that they can come back.0 -
Yes when Johnson wins his majority, you get on with life and watch.SouthamObserver said:
This is the most likely scenario. We will all have to suck it up and then watch what happens as Johnson delivers his "easily manageable" No Deal Brexit.AndyJS said:How will Remainers react if there is an election and Boris wins a comfortable majority?
What else can you do ?0 -
More importantly it reduces smugglingPhilip_Thompson said:
There's no border posts.williamglenn said:
Sorry, but how does making cross-border trade without paying tariffs a criminal act protect the Good Friday Agreement?Gabs2 said:
I understand there are three areas at stake:eek said:
So how does agrifood resolve all the other markets, taxes and laws...Scott_P said:
- People
- Customs
- Live animals
People seems to be dealt with by CTA/Schengen opt out for Ireland. Customs can be done by making it a criminal act in each side's domestic law. Live animals os a thorny one but looks like Boris is playing for DUP to back down.0 -
It is clear from last night's YouGov poll that by some considerable margin the mood of the public is to view the actions of Remainer MPs blocking no deal as undemocratic, and their actions are indeed now in plain view for all to see.HYUFD said:
No it is great news for Boris, Parliament blocking the will of the people and defying 17 million Leave voters as the Tories poll lead grows furtherScott_P said:https://twitter.com/robertshrimsley/status/1169286286324248579
CUMMINGS HAS WARGAMED THIS !!!
Furthermore, the Conservatives amongst them have now given Johnson good reason to act against them. If Johnson was going to lose the Commons stage of the bill to stop "no deal", and he always was whatever he did, it was surely better for him to lose it by a bigger margin than a smaller one. The opposition to him from diehard Remainer Conservative MPs was always there but now 22 have been smoked out and have lost the whip. The opportunity will be there quite shortly to replace them with MPs who back Johnson's stance. The alternative might have been that only those MPs (such as Soames) who intended to stand down rebelled, sufficient for the bill still to pass but still leaving the likes of Hammond and Gauke in place after the next election.0 -
The most interesting thing in the Commons tonight may be to see whether Boris gets a simple majority for an election. If he does, he may try to override the FTPA using that majority. (I know the Lords is a problem from his point of view). But if he can't even get a simple majority for an election, the whole idea is obviously dead in the water.0
-
Intriguing. The EU is eager to give us a third extension (££)
https://www.ft.com/content/db716f7a-cf22-11e9-99a4-b5ded7a7fe3f?desktop=true
“There is absolutely no appetite in the EU to throw Britain off the Brexit cliff edge,” said one EU diplomat. “If the UK parliament were to ask for an extension to prevent a no-deal outcome, it would be hard to see how the EU27 could refuse that.”0 -
If the Brexit lords hold the no deal up, how will that help Johnson get his election ?
As he has suspended parliament from next week.0 -
Relevance?Alanbrooke said:
you know little of beef farmingwilliamglenn said:
Sorry, but how does making cross-border trade without paying tariffs a criminal act protect the Good Friday Agreement?Gabs2 said:
I understand there are three areas at stake:eek said:
So how does agrifood resolve all the other markets, taxes and laws...Scott_P said:
- People
- Customs
- Live animals
People seems to be dealt with by CTA/Schengen opt out for Ireland. Customs can be done by making it a criminal act in each side's domestic law. Live animals os a thorny one but looks like Boris is playing for DUP to back down.0 -
The supermajority is for a motion in the Commons alone.Black_Rook said:
And thus the supermajority provision in the FTPA is effectively worthless, because it can be set aside by a simple majority. Boris Johnson's problem is, of course, that he doesn't have even a simple majority that will support him, hence the fact that neither this route nor the mechanism of simply no-confidencing himself are available to him.GIN1138 said:eek said:
Where did this one clause Bill idea come from as it's not supported under the FTPA.ab195 said:
But a one clause Bill doesn’t: and if they are agreed on the text it won’t be amended. If it looks likely, Corbyn will have to find a way to support.eek said:
"Alternatively, as the New Statesman’s political editor Stephen Bush has noted, an election can be called by “passing a one-line bill stating that ‘notwithstanding the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, the next election will be on X, the FTPA act will continue to apply otherwise” (one route Theresa May considered in 2017)."
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/09/how-general-election-called
For supermajorities to be effective, e.g. as used for some decisions in the US Congress, they need to be contained within constitutions or basic laws that a legislature can't simply amend or repeal entirely under its own authority.
Your simple majority would require the Lords to vote for it too, which they would be in their right not to do if the simple majority were being used to dodge the supermajority. (Though I'd back repeal of the FTPA anyway).0 -
Lords would block the Commons voting for an election?OblitusSumMe said:
The supermajority is for a motion in the Commons alone.Black_Rook said:
And thus the supermajority provision in the FTPA is effectively worthless, because it can be set aside by a simple majority. Boris Johnson's problem is, of course, that he doesn't have even a simple majority that will support him, hence the fact that neither this route nor the mechanism of simply no-confidencing himself are available to him.GIN1138 said:eek said:
Where did this one clause Bill idea come from as it's not supported under the FTPA.ab195 said:
But a one clause Bill doesn’t: and if they are agreed on the text it won’t be amended. If it looks likely, Corbyn will have to find a way to support.eek said:
"Alternatively, as the New Statesman’s political editor Stephen Bush has noted, an election can be called by “passing a one-line bill stating that ‘notwithstanding the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, the next election will be on X, the FTPA act will continue to apply otherwise” (one route Theresa May considered in 2017)."
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/09/how-general-election-called
For supermajorities to be effective, e.g. as used for some decisions in the US Congress, they need to be contained within constitutions or basic laws that a legislature can't simply amend or repeal entirely under its own authority.
Your simple majority would require the Lords to vote for it too, which they would be in their right not to do if the simple majority were being used to dodge the supermajority. (Though I'd back repeal of the FTPA anyway).0 -
I would prefer a deal but think no options are good.AndyJS said:How will Remainers react if there is an election and Boris wins a comfortable majority?
The chance of a deal is better if Boris wins a decent majority and an extension has been agreed before the election than it would have been without an election.
Also if we are going to actually no deal it is better with a govt majority than a minority, and it is better with a mandate than no mandate. The voters, the PM and his party will have to own it and its outcomes.
So in terms of Brexit outcomes it would be no worse than we were a month ago. However the disappointment would be that the country rewards recklessness, dishonesty, disloyalty and cowardice with a comfortable majority.
0 -
Thank goodness that this afternoon the Chancellor provided additional funding for more jail places for those committing criminal damage at polling stations.PrinceofTaranto said:
Leavers are going to be tearing down the doors at the polling stations after Brexit is delayed again.There is a lot of anger out there now.SouthamObserver said:
This is the most likely scenario. We will all have to suck it up and then watch what happens as Johnson delivers his "easily manageable" No Deal Brexit.AndyJS said:How will Remainers react if there is an election and Boris wins a comfortable majority?
Huzzah for sensible policies for the modern age.1 -
It's not just a question of avoiding border posts.Philip_Thompson said:
There's no border posts.williamglenn said:
Sorry, but how does making cross-border trade without paying tariffs a criminal act protect the Good Friday Agreement?Gabs2 said:
I understand there are three areas at stake:eek said:
So how does agrifood resolve all the other markets, taxes and laws...Scott_P said:
- People
- Customs
- Live animals
People seems to be dealt with by CTA/Schengen opt out for Ireland. Customs can be done by making it a criminal act in each side's domestic law. Live animals os a thorny one but looks like Boris is playing for DUP to back down.0 -
maybe we should just actually fall back to betting alternatives.0
-
How will it be any different from what we are going through now?AndyJS said:How will Remainers react if there is an election and Boris wins a comfortable majority?
We know it is a mistake and the Govt seem determined to make it. They sure as heck are not listening to Remainers.
If he gets a majority then he gets a majority. I will just note that Remainers, in general, are not the ones threatening violence, intimidation, deportations or civil disorder if we do not get our way...0 -
They'd probably give us unlimited extensions. They don't want us to leave, in case it encourages other members to do the same.Byronic said:Intriguing. The EU is eager to give us a third extension (££)
https://www.ft.com/content/db716f7a-cf22-11e9-99a4-b5ded7a7fe3f?desktop=true
“There is absolutely no appetite in the EU to throw Britain off the Brexit cliff edge,” said one EU diplomat. “If the UK parliament were to ask for an extension to prevent a no-deal outcome, it would be hard to see how the EU27 could refuse that.”0 -
And what difference would it really make? What would there be to stop the bill from being passed when parliament returns in October?Yorkcity said:If the Brexit lords hold the no deal up, how will that help Johnson get his election ?
As he has suspended parliament from next week.0 -
How can you say that? Maybe he approves of the Tories' current policies and plans.TOPPING said:And what clueless diehard remainers like you don't realise is that the Tory party is not your party any more.
That surely, makes it his party?0 -
This is precisely what Johnson is relying on.CaptainBuzzkill said:If I could offer a suggestion to those who are currently utterly giddy with every rumour and tweet relating to the goings on in parliament.
Stand back and have a look at the bigger picture.
Perhaps even chat with normal people who have rounded lives and don't sit obsessing about politics.
I think you might find that the wider perception is more like:
1. Johnson is trying to get Brexit through
2. Parliament are stopping him implementing the referendum result
For the vast majority of normal people it goes no deeper than that.
Which is why the swivel-eyed headbangers on here are in all likelihood going to get an enormous shock the morning after the GE.
That the average person is deeply average.
And like you I expect him to be proved correct.
But one lives in hope. One has to. What is the alternative?0 -
Beef farming isn’t an area I know much about. Dairy, however I do know a bit and it’s doomed without a fixAlanbrooke said:
you know little of beef farmingwilliamglenn said:
Sorry, but how does making cross-border trade without paying tariffs a criminal act protect the Good Friday Agreement?Gabs2 said:
I understand there are three areas at stake:eek said:
So how does agrifood resolve all the other markets, taxes and laws...Scott_P said:
- People
- Customs
- Live animals
People seems to be dealt with by CTA/Schengen opt out for Ireland. Customs can be done by making it a criminal act in each side's domestic law. Live animals os a thorny one but looks like Boris is playing for DUP to back down.0 -
I wonder how long Brendan and his Revolutionary Communist Party pals will stick with Farage. I suspect Boris will soon be the new apple of their collective eye.AndyJS said:A different point of view to the majority on PB:
"Why Remoaners are so terrified of a General Election
These anti-democrats fear the judgement of the people. And they’re right to fear it.
Brendan O'Neill"
https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/09/04/why-remoaners-are-so-terrified-of-a-general-election/0 -
You're right it is a question of looking for excuses to avoid Brexit.williamglenn said:
It's not just a question of avoiding border posts.Philip_Thompson said:
There's no border posts.williamglenn said:
Sorry, but how does making cross-border trade without paying tariffs a criminal act protect the Good Friday Agreement?Gabs2 said:
I understand there are three areas at stake:eek said:
So how does agrifood resolve all the other markets, taxes and laws...Scott_P said:
- People
- Customs
- Live animals
People seems to be dealt with by CTA/Schengen opt out for Ireland. Customs can be done by making it a criminal act in each side's domestic law. Live animals os a thorny one but looks like Boris is playing for DUP to back down.0 -
Mr Big resigned this morning .... probably before Cummings and @HYUFD expelled him !!IanB2 said:
Hammond, Stewart and so many others have been thrown out, and you're still a member??Big_G_NorthWales said:
A fight for the soul of the party. May common sense prevailNigelb said:
The party is completely united...CarlottaVance said:
Accept Bill and get RA
Reinstate the mps
Seek an election for the 15th October
All on monday
And then prorogue parliament1 -
That's one point of view. However, there seems to be the persistance of another group of countries, as reported by the Finnish FM today, who perceive a continuing deferral as damaging to the EU. Cummings and his famous wargames will presumably have been readied for either.AndyJS said:
They'd probably give us unlimited extensions. They don't want us to leave, in case it encourages other members to do the same.Byronic said:Intriguing. The EU is eager to give us a third extension (££)
https://www.ft.com/content/db716f7a-cf22-11e9-99a4-b5ded7a7fe3f?desktop=true
“There is absolutely no appetite in the EU to throw Britain off the Brexit cliff edge,” said one EU diplomat. “If the UK parliament were to ask for an extension to prevent a no-deal outcome, it would be hard to see how the EU27 could refuse that.”0 -
Of course they will give us unlimited extensions. It is better than no deal and we wont accept a deal.AndyJS said:
They'd probably give us unlimited extensions. They don't want us to leave, in case it encourages other members to do the same.Byronic said:Intriguing. The EU is eager to give us a third extension (££)
https://www.ft.com/content/db716f7a-cf22-11e9-99a4-b5ded7a7fe3f?desktop=true
“There is absolutely no appetite in the EU to throw Britain off the Brexit cliff edge,” said one EU diplomat. “If the UK parliament were to ask for an extension to prevent a no-deal outcome, it would be hard to see how the EU27 could refuse that.”0 -
+1 Given how the last few days have panned out. I am genuinely afraid of what will happen in the future. BJ is behaving more like a dictator than the leader of a parliamentary democracy. As someone who is disabled, will I be safe in a Johnson Britain? I say this in all seriousness...Beibheirli_C said:
How will it be any different from what we are going through now?AndyJS said:How will Remainers react if there is an election and Boris wins a comfortable majority?
We know it is a mistake and the Govt seem determined to make it. They sure as heck are not listening to Remainers.
If he gets a majority then he gets a majority. I will just note that Remainers, in general, are not the ones threatening violence, intimidation, deportations or civil disorder if we do not get our way...0 -
I mean, he'll get a majority in the sense that more MPs will vote for his election than against (Labour are abstaining). But I highly doubt he'll get 315 votes, or whatever the majority threshold is among voting MPs. Why would the 21 Tories now without the whip want an election?AndyJS said:The most interesting thing in the Commons tonight may be to see whether Boris gets a simple majority for an election. If he does, he may try to override the FTPA using that majority. (I know the Lords is a problem from his point of view). But if he can't even get a simple majority for an election, the whole idea is obviously dead in the water.
0 -
Words fail me.Burgessian said:
A bit strong Stuart. I don't know Lord F but the feedback I've received is that he is a very courteous and extremely bright guy. Came from a generation of Tories influenced by the Manchester school of economists at St Andrews in the 70s. An interesting fellow and not to be dismissed in these kind of terms, however much you may disagree with him. He is also, unassailably, an authentic working-class Scot.StuartDickson said:Just had a very unpleasant experience. Was innocently listening to the calming tones of Sarah Montague at lunchtime, when I heard a repulsive blast from the past. That ginormous turd Michael Forsyth, who the voters of Stirling soundly dismissed in 1997, was on my bloody radio, splurging his usual lies, hatred and bile.
This is why the House of Lords has to go. Reptiles like Forsyth suck at the taxpayers’ teets for decades after losing elections. The vile serpent had the audacity to present himself as a champion of democracy.
A bit strong eh?
Clear that you were not in Scotland in the 80s and 90s.
Forsyth was utterly despised, throughout the nation. He managed to unite the (then dominant) Scottish Labour Party, Scottish Liberals, the SNP, half the Scottish Tory party, and the unaligned, against him. He was reviled more than Maggie. Why? Well, Maggie was English. She had an excuse. Forsyth didn’t.
Michael Forsyth is why devolution happened. He was the vital catalyst. Never again would Scots be mis-ruled as they had been under Forsyth.
And the wee bastard hasn’t changed one iota in 22 years.0 -
Does the General Election vote have a time?0
-
Time.Chris said:
And what difference would it really make? What would there be to stop the bill from being passed when parliament returns in October?Yorkcity said:If the Brexit lords hold the no deal up, how will that help Johnson get his election ?
As he has suspended parliament from next week.
You cannot get it back and Johnson will not get his election before Oct 31st. He will stay a lame duck.
0 -
But the SNP do?Danny565 said:
I mean, he'll get a majority in the sense that more MPs will vote for his election than against (Labour are abstaining). But I highly doubt he'll get 315 votes, or whatever the majority threshold is among voting MPs. Why would the 21 Tories now without the whip want an election?AndyJS said:The most interesting thing in the Commons tonight may be to see whether Boris gets a simple majority for an election. If he does, he may try to override the FTPA using that majority. (I know the Lords is a problem from his point of view). But if he can't even get a simple majority for an election, the whole idea is obviously dead in the water.
0 -
A dictator who wants a general election. LolThe_Taxman said:
+1 Given how the last few days have panned out. I am genuinely afraid of what will happen in the future. BJ is behaving more like a dictator than the leader of a parliamentary democracy. As someone who is disabled, will I be safe in a Johnson Britain? I say this in all seriousness...Beibheirli_C said:
How will it be any different from what we are going through now?AndyJS said:How will Remainers react if there is an election and Boris wins a comfortable majority?
We know it is a mistake and the Govt seem determined to make it. They sure as heck are not listening to Remainers.
If he gets a majority then he gets a majority. I will just note that Remainers, in general, are not the ones threatening violence, intimidation, deportations or civil disorder if we do not get our way...0 -
If and when the Conservatives and Brexit party found themselves in opposition, Brendan O’Neill would be writing articles about how the British people didn’t deserve Brexit.AndyJS said:A different point of view to the majority on PB:
"Why Remoaners are so terrified of a General Election
These anti-democrats fear the judgement of the people. And they’re right to fear it.
Brendan O'Neill"
https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/09/04/why-remoaners-are-so-terrified-of-a-general-election/0 -
No country is going to want to leave when they see what happens to us after we leaveAndyJS said:
They'd probably give us unlimited extensions. They don't want us to leave, in case it encourages other members to do the same.Byronic said:Intriguing. The EU is eager to give us a third extension (££)
https://www.ft.com/content/db716f7a-cf22-11e9-99a4-b5ded7a7fe3f?desktop=true
“There is absolutely no appetite in the EU to throw Britain off the Brexit cliff edge,” said one EU diplomat. “If the UK parliament were to ask for an extension to prevent a no-deal outcome, it would be hard to see how the EU27 could refuse that.”0 -
You conveniently forget Philip Pullman suggesting that Boris should be hanged the other day. Can't think of anything more extreme. The fact is there are lunatics on both sides and if you don 't realise it you're probably one of them.Beibheirli_C said:
How will it be any different from what we are going through now?AndyJS said:How will Remainers react if there is an election and Boris wins a comfortable majority?
We know it is a mistake and the Govt seem determined to make it. They sure as heck are not listening to Remainers.
If he gets a majority then he gets a majority. I will just note that Remainers, in general, are not the ones threatening violence, intimidation, deportations or civil disorder if we do not get our way...0 -
At least you are beginning to understand the importance of border posts.Philip_Thompson said:
There's no border posts.williamglenn said:
Sorry, but how does making cross-border trade without paying tariffs a criminal act protect the Good Friday Agreement?Gabs2 said:
I understand there are three areas at stake:eek said:
So how does agrifood resolve all the other markets, taxes and laws...Scott_P said:
- People
- Customs
- Live animals
People seems to be dealt with by CTA/Schengen opt out for Ireland. Customs can be done by making it a criminal act in each side's domestic law. Live animals os a thorny one but looks like Boris is playing for DUP to back down.
0 -
I didnt mean literally you doltJackW said:
Thank goodness that this afternoon the Chancellor provided additional funding for more jail places for those committing criminal damage at polling stations.PrinceofTaranto said:
Leavers are going to be tearing down the doors at the polling stations after Brexit is delayed again.There is a lot of anger out there now.SouthamObserver said:
This is the most likely scenario. We will all have to suck it up and then watch what happens as Johnson delivers his "easily manageable" No Deal Brexit.AndyJS said:How will Remainers react if there is an election and Boris wins a comfortable majority?
Huzzah for sensible policies for the modern age.0 -
Brendan O'Neill is one of the ex-Living Marxism, now "Marxist progress"-cum-neoliberal crowd, is he not ? A very odd outfit.AlastairMeeks said:
If and when the Conservatives and Brexit party found themselves in opposition, Brendan O’Neill would be writing articles about how the British people didn’t deserve Brexit.AndyJS said:A different point of view to the majority on PB:
"Why Remoaners are so terrified of a General Election
These anti-democrats fear the judgement of the people. And they’re right to fear it.
Brendan O'Neill"
https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/09/04/why-remoaners-are-so-terrified-of-a-general-election/0 -
Anytime from 20:30 depending on when this debate finishesPhilip_Thompson said:Does the General Election vote have a time?
0 -
Exactly, it does not make any sense. its one mistake after another! Still BJ makes people laughDanny565 said:
I mean, he'll get a majority in the sense that more MPs will vote for his election than against (Labour are abstaining). But I highly doubt he'll get 315 votes, or whatever the majority threshold is among voting MPs. Why would the 21 Tories now without the whip want an election?AndyJS said:The most interesting thing in the Commons tonight may be to see whether Boris gets a simple majority for an election. If he does, he may try to override the FTPA using that majority. (I know the Lords is a problem from his point of view). But if he can't even get a simple majority for an election, the whole idea is obviously dead in the water.
0 -
Good England.AlastairMeeks said:
If and when the Conservatives and Brexit party found themselves in opposition, Brendan O’Neill would be writing articles about how the British people didn’t deserve Brexit.0 -
He is a remainer. As such he very much disapproves of the Tories' current plans.Beibheirli_C said:
How can you say that? Maybe he approves of the Tories' current policies and plans.TOPPING said:And what clueless diehard remainers like you don't realise is that the Tory party is not your party any more.
That surely, makes it his party?0 -
Oh. Frayed nerves?PrinceofTaranto said:
I didnt mean literally you doltJackW said:
Thank goodness that this afternoon the Chancellor provided additional funding for more jail places for those committing criminal damage at polling stations.PrinceofTaranto said:
Leavers are going to be tearing down the doors at the polling stations after Brexit is delayed again.There is a lot of anger out there now.SouthamObserver said:
This is the most likely scenario. We will all have to suck it up and then watch what happens as Johnson delivers his "easily manageable" No Deal Brexit.AndyJS said:How will Remainers react if there is an election and Boris wins a comfortable majority?
Huzzah for sensible policies for the modern age.0 -
Even they have said they won't be voting for the thing tonight.MarqueeMark said:
But the SNP do?Danny565 said:
I mean, he'll get a majority in the sense that more MPs will vote for his election than against (Labour are abstaining). But I highly doubt he'll get 315 votes, or whatever the majority threshold is among voting MPs. Why would the 21 Tories now without the whip want an election?AndyJS said:The most interesting thing in the Commons tonight may be to see whether Boris gets a simple majority for an election. If he does, he may try to override the FTPA using that majority. (I know the Lords is a problem from his point of view). But if he can't even get a simple majority for an election, the whole idea is obviously dead in the water.
It's possible they're willing to vote for it after the No Deal Bill has been ratified next week, but I really doubt they would like the "optics" of being the only other party to side with a Tory PM (if they can convince Plaid Cymru and/or the Lib Dems to join them then it might be different).0 -
I've always said there shouldn't be border posts though haven't I?TOPPING said:
At least you are beginning to understand the importance of border posts.Philip_Thompson said:
There's no border posts.williamglenn said:
Sorry, but how does making cross-border trade without paying tariffs a criminal act protect the Good Friday Agreement?Gabs2 said:
I understand there are three areas at stake:eek said:
So how does agrifood resolve all the other markets, taxes and laws...Scott_P said:
- People
- Customs
- Live animals
People seems to be dealt with by CTA/Schengen opt out for Ireland. Customs can be done by making it a criminal act in each side's domestic law. Live animals os a thorny one but looks like Boris is playing for DUP to back down.
Have you even ONCE seen me say border posts owuld be a good idea? I've said all along border posts both could and should be avoided via other means like this.0 -
No. They want us to Leave on our terms and therefore for the UK to own the consequences. They do not want to be stuck with the charge that they caused any future issues because they are well aware that they would be used as the bogeyman by the UK.AndyJS said:
They'd probably give us unlimited extensions. They don't want us to leave, in case it encourages other members to do the same.Byronic said:Intriguing. The EU is eager to give us a third extension (££)
https://www.ft.com/content/db716f7a-cf22-11e9-99a4-b5ded7a7fe3f?desktop=true
“There is absolutely no appetite in the EU to throw Britain off the Brexit cliff edge,” said one EU diplomat. “If the UK parliament were to ask for an extension to prevent a no-deal outcome, it would be hard to see how the EU27 could refuse that.”0 -
Even before maybeeek said:
No country is going to want to leave when they see what happens to us after we leaveAndyJS said:
They'd probably give us unlimited extensions. They don't want us to leave, in case it encourages other members to do the same.Byronic said:Intriguing. The EU is eager to give us a third extension (££)
https://www.ft.com/content/db716f7a-cf22-11e9-99a4-b5ded7a7fe3f?desktop=true
“There is absolutely no appetite in the EU to throw Britain off the Brexit cliff edge,” said one EU diplomat. “If the UK parliament were to ask for an extension to prevent a no-deal outcome, it would be hard to see how the EU27 could refuse that.”0 -
But did he wargame victory or a catastrophic defeat?Scott_P said:https://twitter.com/robertshrimsley/status/1169286286324248579
CUMMINGS HAS WARGAMED THIS !!!0 -
Evening all.
Politics is piss funny at the moment. Literally. Had to work very hard not to see whilst driving up the M1 at lunchtime listening to Bozo make Jezbollah sound like a statesman.
The government are literally in office and not in power. By tonight they will have been compelled to do something they don't want to do and forced to remain in office when they want an election. Ordinarily this would be stupid, but as the clock is running down and there isnt time for an election OR consensus about an alternative government made up of the same MPs, here we are.
Question- now that the Father of the House is an Independent, would that make him more palatable as an interim PM before an election where he isn't standing and has no party?0 -
I don’t think the Libdems have too much to fear, politically, from an election. They just need to hold their nerve and commit to campaigning hard, everywhere, even in supposed Con/lab marginals.
Just a shame they went for Swinson over Dave.1 -
The length of extension matters. Too short and it forces the same situation again. Too long and it is seen as trying to cancel Brexit.AndyJS said:
They'd probably give us unlimited extensions. They don't want us to leave, in case it encourages other members to do the same.Byronic said:Intriguing. The EU is eager to give us a third extension (££)
https://www.ft.com/content/db716f7a-cf22-11e9-99a4-b5ded7a7fe3f?desktop=true
“There is absolutely no appetite in the EU to throw Britain off the Brexit cliff edge,” said one EU diplomat. “If the UK parliament were to ask for an extension to prevent a no-deal outcome, it would be hard to see how the EU27 could refuse that.”0 -
How likely is it the filibuster is going to work?Morris_Dancer said:0 -
if you understood it you wouldnt be asking the questionwilliamglenn said:
Relevance?Alanbrooke said:
you know little of beef farmingwilliamglenn said:
Sorry, but how does making cross-border trade without paying tariffs a criminal act protect the Good Friday Agreement?Gabs2 said:
I understand there are three areas at stake:eek said:
So how does agrifood resolve all the other markets, taxes and laws...Scott_P said:
- People
- Customs
- Live animals
People seems to be dealt with by CTA/Schengen opt out for Ireland. Customs can be done by making it a criminal act in each side's domestic law. Live animals os a thorny one but looks like Boris is playing for DUP to back down.1 -
You're losing it. Your man turned out not to be the Messiah just a rather bumptious and unpleasant politician.HYUFD said:
What utter crap, the latest poll gives a 10% Tory lead what clueless diehard Remainers like you cannot understand is the people have had enough, they are fed up with being patronised by the likes of you and by a Commons which refuses to respect their Leave vote which is why Boris will win the next general election and crush Corbyn Labour once and for all into the bargainCicero said:I think the past 24 hours have been utterly devastating for the Conservatives. Worse than Black Wednesday by a significant factor.
The optics are truly awful. Starting with Johnson's bullshit speech outside Number 10 being drowned out by booing. Losing a phlanx of the most solidly Tory MPs you could imagine through your own childish intransigence. The utterly bollocks "rowing back from austerity", Lee crossing the floor, the much bigger defeat than expected and the body language of Rees Mogg. 100,000 signing up to vote in 24 hours- the *same 24 hours* as the Tory government imploded.
This is the inflection point when the Tories can't get it back.
I think the polls will be increasingly terrifying for Johnson- no one likes losers, and they particularly don't like entitled bastard losers.
I also think that tactical voting against the Tories will accelerate the losses they are going to make.
1997 may not be the low point for the Tories- this time I don't think that they can come back.0 -
And many other examples. Typical Remainer myopia.felix said:
You conveniently forget Philip Pullman suggesting that Boris should be hanged the other day. Can't think of anything more extreme. The fact is there are lunatics on both sides and if you don 't realise it you're probably one of them.Beibheirli_C said:
How will it be any different from what we are going through now?AndyJS said:How will Remainers react if there is an election and Boris wins a comfortable majority?
We know it is a mistake and the Govt seem determined to make it. They sure as heck are not listening to Remainers.
If he gets a majority then he gets a majority. I will just note that Remainers, in general, are not the ones threatening violence, intimidation, deportations or civil disorder if we do not get our way...1 -
There, that's a bit more measured. And he did bring back the Stone of Destiny.StuartDickson said:
Words fail me.Burgessian said:
A bit strong Stuart. I don't know Lord F but the feedback I've received is that he is a very courteous and extremely bright guy. Came from a generation of Tories influenced by the Manchester school of economists at St Andrews in the 70s. An interesting fellow and not to be dismissed in these kind of terms, however much you may disagree with him. He is also, unassailably, an authentic working-class Scot.StuartDickson said:Just had a very unpleasant experience. Was innocently listening to the calming tones of Sarah Montague at lunchtime, when I heard a repulsive blast from the past. That ginormous turd Michael Forsyth, who the voters of Stirling soundly dismissed in 1997, was on my bloody radio, splurging his usual lies, hatred and bile.
This is why the House of Lords has to go. Reptiles like Forsyth suck at the taxpayers’ teets for decades after losing elections. The vile serpent had the audacity to present himself as a champion of democracy.
A bit strong eh?
Clear that you were not in Scotland in the 80s and 90s.
Forsyth was utterly despised, throughout the nation. He managed to unite the (then dominant) Scottish Labour Party, Scottish Liberals, the SNP, half the Scottish Tory party, and the unaligned, against him. He was reviled more than Maggie. Why? Well, Maggie was English. She had an excuse. Forsyth didn’t.
Michael Forsyth is why devolution happened. He was the vital catalyst. Never again would Scots be mis-ruled as they had been under Forsyth.
And the wee bastard hasn’t changed one iota in 22 years.0 -
I wouldn't recommend using that as a campaigning slogan..kinabalu said:
This is precisely what Johnson is relying on.CaptainBuzzkill said:If I could offer a suggestion to those who are currently utterly giddy with every rumour and tweet relating to the goings on in parliament.
Stand back and have a look at the bigger picture.
Perhaps even chat with normal people who have rounded lives and don't sit obsessing about politics.
I think you might find that the wider perception is more like:
1. Johnson is trying to get Brexit through
2. Parliament are stopping him implementing the referendum result
For the vast majority of normal people it goes no deeper than that.
Which is why the swivel-eyed headbangers on here are in all likelihood going to get an enormous shock the morning after the GE.
That the average person is deeply average.
And like you I expect him to be proved correct.
But one lives in hope. One has to. What is the alternative?
Regardless of the rights, wrongs and potential impact of Brexit the wider perception does appear to be precisely what is happening.
0 -
Benn Bill becoming law is still likely but certainly not a slam dunk.
There's a Betfair market on it - Benn Bill to get Royal Assent in 2019:
Yes 1.4 / 1.5
No 3.0 / 3.750 -
-
Not at all. Looking forward to the surprise Remainers are going to get when the little people they so despise and ignore get their say again.Chris said:
Oh. Frayed nerves?PrinceofTaranto said:
I didnt mean literally you doltJackW said:
Thank goodness that this afternoon the Chancellor provided additional funding for more jail places for those committing criminal damage at polling stations.PrinceofTaranto said:
Leavers are going to be tearing down the doors at the polling stations after Brexit is delayed again.There is a lot of anger out there now.SouthamObserver said:
This is the most likely scenario. We will all have to suck it up and then watch what happens as Johnson delivers his "easily manageable" No Deal Brexit.AndyJS said:How will Remainers react if there is an election and Boris wins a comfortable majority?
Huzzah for sensible policies for the modern age.0 -
Mr. Smith, no idea, I'm afraid.0
-
I don't understand why you keep up this line against HYUFD. It's so weirdTOPPING said:
He is a remainer. As such he very much disapproves of the Tories' current plans.Beibheirli_C said:
How can you say that? Maybe he approves of the Tories' current policies and plans.TOPPING said:And what clueless diehard remainers like you don't realise is that the Tory party is not your party any more.
That surely, makes it his party?0 -
Perhaps if Boles hadn't behaved like a total dick in 2016 we wouldn't be in this position.AndyJS said:1 -
If Lords do talk out the Benn Bill then:
Parliament comes back on Mon 14 Oct. Could Parliament then pass a Bill in time to force PM to get an extension on Sat 19 Oct?
Maybe, maybe not!!!0 -
Boston was the highest Brexit vote wasnt it?SouthamObserver said:
Except the highest Brexit votes were in areas of low EU immigration. The laces where most EU immigrants tend to settle voted Remain.isam said:
Me personally? It depends which yearwilliamglenn said:
Is the average EU migrant earning more or less than you, I wonder?isam said:
Finally a remain voter is in the mindset of the people who voted Leave because of the mass immigration of cheap EU labourBeibheirli_C said:
If I lose my job because of it, why would I care which category it belongs in?Byronic said:
You don’t understand basic economics. There is a WORLD of difference between 5% shrinkage in absolute GDP, and a 5% opportunity cost in lost growthBeibheirli_C said:
You are quibbling over details. To people losing jobs because of it, they will not gave a d*mn which category the recession belongs to.Byronic said:
Hahaha. I pwned the great Nabavi. All your base are belong to I. EtcRichard_Nabavi said:
It depends what timescale you look at. Yes it's lost growth if you look far enough out, but to get there you have substantial downturn first.Byronic said:Either you, the guardian or Carney is wrong. Or all of you. See my recent post
But it’s an understandable error. That is truly shit reporting by the Guardian. Making lost growth look like absolute shrinkage? TSK
What difference would it make? I would still be unemployed.
But the pressure put on wages, job security & state services added to the rapid change in their neighbourhood demographic were the equivalent of a No Deal Brexit on the lowest paid British workers from 2004-2016, that's why they voted Leave, and the lack of negative impact on richer Brits was the reason they didn't/don't understand the problem with FOM0 -
We’re not talking about agriculture. If you understood you wouldn’t be talking about beef farming.Alanbrooke said:
if you understood it you wouldnt be asking the questionwilliamglenn said:
Relevance?Alanbrooke said:
you know little of beef farmingwilliamglenn said:
Sorry, but how does making cross-border trade without paying tariffs a criminal act protect the Good Friday Agreement?Gabs2 said:
I understand there are three areas at stake:eek said:
So how does agrifood resolve all the other markets, taxes and laws...Scott_P said:
- People
- Customs
- Live animals
People seems to be dealt with by CTA/Schengen opt out for Ireland. Customs can be done by making it a criminal act in each side's domestic law. Live animals os a thorny one but looks like Boris is playing for DUP to back down.0 -
Very.....DanSmith said:
How likely is it the filibuster is going to work?Morris_Dancer said:0 -
NoMikeL said:If Lords do talk out the Benn Bill then:
Parliament comes back on Mon 14 Oct. Could Parliament then pass a Bill in time to force PM to get an extension on Sat 19 Oct?
Maybe, maybe not!!!0 -
That is indeed a significant consideration. The SNP is the joker in the pack here. Given the Scottish polls they must want an immediate election so long as they can dodge the accusation that in forcing one they are ensuring that the UK will leave on 31st October. With an early election they then (1) pick up swathes of seats and (2) even if the UK does leave they also think that Scotland would then be more likely to secede from the UK. Whatever the SNP may say publically about Brexit, they may even be quite happy to facilitate Brexit so long as they can escape responsibility for doing so.GIN1138 said:
Unfortunately Nicola doesn't want to hang around until Labour's polls lead recovers.
Hence the SNP should be quite capable of voting for any bespoke government bill that sought to force a general election on a named date before 31st October and put aside the provisions of the FTPA in doing so. Whether we left would still depend on the outcome of the election. And if the Lords did reject it then there would be a Commons majority for telling the Lords to think again.0 -
I see you missed the subclause "in general"...felix said:
You conveniently forget Philip Pullman suggesting that Boris should be hanged the other day. Can't think of anything more extreme. The fact is there are lunatics on both sides and if you don 't realise it you're probably one of them.Beibheirli_C said:
How will it be any different from what we are going through now?AndyJS said:How will Remainers react if there is an election and Boris wins a comfortable majority?
We know it is a mistake and the Govt seem determined to make it. They sure as heck are not listening to Remainers.
If he gets a majority then he gets a majority. I will just note that Remainers, in general, are not the ones threatening violence, intimidation, deportations or civil disorder if we do not get our way...
0 -
Why not?Big_G_NorthWales said:
NoMikeL said:If Lords do talk out the Benn Bill then:
Parliament comes back on Mon 14 Oct. Could Parliament then pass a Bill in time to force PM to get an extension on Sat 19 Oct?
Maybe, maybe not!!!0 -
Correct.noneoftheabove said:
Not sure the DUP will be pleased at all with a GE (and they may not support no deal when push comes to shove, despite being pro Brexit and against the possible deals).ab195 said:So thinking of the next two or three days only, correct me if I’m wrong but election wise it seems to look like this:
- Boris wants an election, and we can assume his 289 loyal MPs (and the DUP) would vote for it.
- Corbyn might want an election, but many of his backbenchers don’t. He seems to be saying yes, once the Queen signs the Act. Many of his backbenchers say not until after 31 Oct. They will abstain tonight be who knows about Fri/Mon.
- The SNP will vote for one once the Queen signs the Act. Presumably because they stand to gain massively.
- The LibDem position is unclear. The might be amenable as they stand to gain.
- Presumably most independents would be against both on the Brexit grounds and because they’d lose their seats. Woodcock and similar might vote for it as a way of binning Corbyn.
Is that about right? That being the case a 15 Oct election looks like a 60% chance because of Corbyn, the SNP, and the one clause Bill route. But who knows?
The DUP are not keen on fighting a surging Alliance.0 -
Well, no one really knows what will happen if there's an election, but I'm sure it's a mistake to take the electorate for granted, even if you do view them as just "little people."PrinceofTaranto said:
Not at all. Looking forward to the surprise Remainers are going to get when the little people they so despise and ignore get their say again.Chris said:
Oh. Frayed nerves?PrinceofTaranto said:
I didnt mean literally you doltJackW said:
Thank goodness that this afternoon the Chancellor provided additional funding for more jail places for those committing criminal damage at polling stations.PrinceofTaranto said:
Leavers are going to be tearing down the doors at the polling stations after Brexit is delayed again.There is a lot of anger out there now.SouthamObserver said:
This is the most likely scenario. We will all have to suck it up and then watch what happens as Johnson delivers his "easily manageable" No Deal Brexit.AndyJS said:How will Remainers react if there is an election and Boris wins a comfortable majority?
Huzzah for sensible policies for the modern age.0 -
If Labour reject an election then for the first time ever I hope the unelected Lords succeed in blocking the law. The undemocratic charge rather fails when the opposition are literally rejecting an election.MarqueeMark said:
Very.....DanSmith said:
How likely is it the filibuster is going to work?Morris_Dancer said:0 -
Why do you waste your time here? You have so much expertise in argiculture and manufacturing. The govt needs you.Alanbrooke said:
if you understood it you wouldnt be asking the questionwilliamglenn said:
Relevance?Alanbrooke said:
you know little of beef farmingwilliamglenn said:
Sorry, but how does making cross-border trade without paying tariffs a criminal act protect the Good Friday Agreement?Gabs2 said:
I understand there are three areas at stake:eek said:
So how does agrifood resolve all the other markets, taxes and laws...Scott_P said:
- People
- Customs
- Live animals
People seems to be dealt with by CTA/Schengen opt out for Ireland. Customs can be done by making it a criminal act in each side's domestic law. Live animals os a thorny one but looks like Boris is playing for DUP to back down.
Would it help if we obtained a large poster of a mustachioed Boris pointing at you and a "You govt needs you" slogan?
0 -
Winston Churchill would have turfed Soames out on his ear for taking his orders from Berlin....AndyJS said:0 -
Oddly enough it was that very episode which made me suddenly realise how Scotland and Britain were diverging in their attitudes to national symbols of this kind. I was struck how little account was being taken by the wider populace, and it wasn't just because of the identity of the particular satrap making this generous gift to the Scots of what was their own to begin with. Yet it didn't stop the Scots from voting for devolution a few years later.Burgessian said:
There, that's a bit more measured. And he did bring back the Stone of Destiny.StuartDickson said:
Words fail me.Burgessian said:
A bit strong Stuart. I don't know Lord F but the feedback I've received is that he is a very courteous and extremely bright guy. Came from a generation of Tories influenced by the Manchester school of economists at St Andrews in the 70s. An interesting fellow and not to be dismissed in these kind of terms, however much you may disagree with him. He is also, unassailably, an authentic working-class Scot.StuartDickson said:Just had a very unpleasant experience. Was innocently listening to the calming tones of Sarah Montague at lunchtime, when I heard a repulsive blast from the past. That ginormous turd Michael Forsyth, who the voters of Stirling soundly dismissed in 1997, was on my bloody radio, splurging his usual lies, hatred and bile.
This is why the House of Lords has to go. Reptiles like Forsyth suck at the taxpayers’ teets for decades after losing elections. The vile serpent had the audacity to present himself as a champion of democracy.
A bit strong eh?
Clear that you were not in Scotland in the 80s and 90s.
Forsyth was utterly despised, throughout the nation. He managed to unite the (then dominant) Scottish Labour Party, Scottish Liberals, the SNP, half the Scottish Tory party, and the unaligned, against him. He was reviled more than Maggie. Why? Well, Maggie was English. She had an excuse. Forsyth didn’t.
Michael Forsyth is why devolution happened. He was the vital catalyst. Never again would Scots be mis-ruled as they had been under Forsyth.
And the wee bastard hasn’t changed one iota in 22 years.
I have a memory of watching the film of the procession up the High Street, mostly in silence by a very thin crowd, and Mr Forsyth passing in solitary splendour, bekilted.0 -
So's beef in irelandeek said:
Beef farming isn’t an area I know much about. Dairy, however I do know a bit and it’s doomed without a fixAlanbrooke said:
you know little of beef farmingwilliamglenn said:
Sorry, but how does making cross-border trade without paying tariffs a criminal act protect the Good Friday Agreement?Gabs2 said:
I understand there are three areas at stake:eek said:
So how does agrifood resolve all the other markets, taxes and laws...Scott_P said:
- People
- Customs
- Live animals
People seems to be dealt with by CTA/Schengen opt out for Ireland. Customs can be done by making it a criminal act in each side's domestic law. Live animals os a thorny one but looks like Boris is playing for DUP to back down.
the problems are the same supermarkets pushing down prices and processors squeezing farmers. The only difference is while HmG pretends its gives a shit Varadkar doesnt.0 -
-
Fair doos. In a flippin Land Rover!! 😳Burgessian said:
There, that's a bit more measured. And he did bring back the Stone of Destiny.StuartDickson said:
Words fail me.Burgessian said:
A bit strong Stuart. I don't know Lord F but the feedback I've received is that he is a very courteous and extremely bright guy. Came from a generation of Tories influenced by the Manchester school of economists at St Andrews in the 70s. An interesting fellow and not to be dismissed in these kind of terms, however much you may disagree with him. He is also, unassailably, an authentic working-class Scot.StuartDickson said:Just had a very unpleasant experience. Was innocently listening to the calming tones of Sarah Montague at lunchtime, when I heard a repulsive blast from the past. That ginormous turd Michael Forsyth, who the voters of Stirling soundly dismissed in 1997, was on my bloody radio, splurging his usual lies, hatred and bile.
This is why the House of Lords has to go. Reptiles like Forsyth suck at the taxpayers’ teets for decades after losing elections. The vile serpent had the audacity to present himself as a champion of democracy.
A bit strong eh?
Clear that you were not in Scotland in the 80s and 90s.
Forsyth was utterly despised, throughout the nation. He managed to unite the (then dominant) Scottish Labour Party, Scottish Liberals, the SNP, half the Scottish Tory party, and the unaligned, against him. He was reviled more than Maggie. Why? Well, Maggie was English. She had an excuse. Forsyth didn’t.
Michael Forsyth is why devolution happened. He was the vital catalyst. Never again would Scots be mis-ruled as they had been under Forsyth.
And the wee bastard hasn’t changed one iota in 22 years.
Shame he repatriated it to the wrong bloody burgh. Twat.0 -
But if you outlaw referendums the SNP would have a legitimate case fir simply declaring independence as soon as they were in power. Against the wishes of the majority.Black_Rook said:
In the case of Brexit, (most) MPs are obviously to a very large extent to blame for this mess - if, as seems pretty clear, the majority of them thought leaving the EU a disaster not to be contemplated, then they should never have voted to hold the referendum in the first place - but it doesn't solve the central problem of trying to treat our representatives as delegates.Richard_Tyndall said:Couldn't disagree more. Plenty of countries make referendums a key part of their legislation and do it very well. And your two examples of failure are spurious.
In the case of the Scottish vote there is nothing problematic or inconsistent with having the SNP elected with one their policies being independence and then having that specific policy rejected by the electorate. They still have many other policies they can enact in Government. Moreover the alternative would be to say that the SNP should simply have declared independence without a referendum - something that at the time clearly had only minority support as we well know from the referendum itself.
As far as Brexit is concerned I would suggest many of those MPs now obstructing or trying to reverse Brexit would never have got elected in 2015 had they been honest and said they would try to reverse the referendum.
The problem is not referendums it is the MPs.
By voting contrary to what MPs were willing to stomach in a referendum, and then compounding the situation by voting in another contrarian Parliament, voters have created circumstances - and this isn't deliberate and isn't their fault, but it is what has come about nonetheless - in which continual corrosive damage to democracy is bound to result. We end up with a confused, dithering and impotent Parliament which contains a majority of members that wish either to comply with the instruction given in the referendum half-heartedly or not at all, and cannot agree on any resolution at all as a result. Meanwhile, a large chunk of the Leave electorate now feels insulted and robbed. It's madness.
In Scotland the situation is somewhat different. Voters have rejected independence in a plebiscite, but keep returning secessionist Parliaments - there is sufficient support for one thing but not quite enough for the other. The risk is that, therefore, both Scotland and the rest of the UK become stuck in a rut: as long as this stalemate exists, the Scottish Government will keep trying to engineer independence referendums and the rest of the UK will be under constant threat of dissolution, with no idea as to if or when it might happen. It's not exactly ideal...
What should happen is that referendums should be binding. MPs should not be able to reject the result.0 -
What utter crap. Soames voted with the marxists and nationalists against his own party on a matter of confidence. He was told beforehand the consequences of doing so but continued nonetheless. Soames decided how to vote and owns the outturn.AndyJS said:1 -
The 14th is a Saturday but even then who is going to lay a bill. Certainly not the governmentPhilip_Thompson said:
Why not?Big_G_NorthWales said:
NoMikeL said:If Lords do talk out the Benn Bill then:
Parliament comes back on Mon 14 Oct. Could Parliament then pass a Bill in time to force PM to get an extension on Sat 19 Oct?
Maybe, maybe not!!!
Sorry my mistake, I misread it as the 14th September0 -
Presumably in that case the anti-No Deal majority in Parliament could still rescue the situation through the alternative means of VONCing Boris Johnson and installing an alternative PM (most likely Corbyn,) with an instruction to go and seek the A50 extension? If the EU27 want to grant it then they could call an emergency summit to deal with the situation on any date up to and including October 31st.Big_G_NorthWales said:
NoMikeL said:If Lords do talk out the Benn Bill then:
Parliament comes back on Mon 14 Oct. Could Parliament then pass a Bill in time to force PM to get an extension on Sat 19 Oct?
Maybe, maybe not!!!0 -
Nobody forced Soames to defy a three line whip on an issue of confidence.AndyJS said:
Still not heard one person objecting to this confirm they'd have objected to seeing Cash or Redwood be thrown out if they'd voted against Maastricht on a confidence matter.0 -
As I said this morning, Corbyn has fucked this up.TGOHF said:0 -
Watch the polls this weekend .You may get a surprise .Roger said:
You're losing it. Your man turned out not to be the Messiah just a rather bumptious and unpleasant politician.HYUFD said:
What utter crap, the latest poll gives a 10% Tory lead what clueless diehard Remainers like you cannot understand is the people have had enough, they are fed up with being patronised by the likes of you and by a Commons which refuses to respect their Leave vote which is why Boris will win the next general election and crush Corbyn Labour once and for all into the bargainCicero said:I think the past 24 hours have been utterly devastating for the Conservatives. Worse than Black Wednesday by a significant factor.
The optics are truly awful. Starting with Johnson's bullshit speech outside Number 10 being drowned out by booing. Losing a phlanx of the most solidly Tory MPs you could imagine through your own childish intransigence. The utterly bollocks "rowing back from austerity", Lee crossing the floor, the much bigger defeat than expected and the body language of Rees Mogg. 100,000 signing up to vote in 24 hours- the *same 24 hours* as the Tory government imploded.
This is the inflection point when the Tories can't get it back.
I think the polls will be increasingly terrifying for Johnson- no one likes losers, and they particularly don't like entitled bastard losers.
I also think that tactical voting against the Tories will accelerate the losses they are going to make.
1997 may not be the low point for the Tories- this time I don't think that they can come back.0 -
It is Boris who has trashed the Tory party to meet an arbitrary date that the UK govt did not even want and was set by the moody French president!!MarqueeMark said:
Winston Churchill would have turfed Soames out on his ear for taking his orders from Berlin....AndyJS said:0 -
I was you werent. toughwilliamglenn said:
We’re not talking about agriculture. If you understood you wouldn’t be talking about beef farming.Alanbrooke said:
if you understood it you wouldnt be asking the questionwilliamglenn said:
Relevance?Alanbrooke said:
you know little of beef farmingwilliamglenn said:
Sorry, but how does making cross-border trade without paying tariffs a criminal act protect the Good Friday Agreement?Gabs2 said:
I understand there are three areas at stake:eek said:
So how does agrifood resolve all the other markets, taxes and laws...Scott_P said:
- People
- Customs
- Live animals
People seems to be dealt with by CTA/Schengen opt out for Ireland. Customs can be done by making it a criminal act in each side's domestic law. Live animals os a thorny one but looks like Boris is playing for DUP to back down.0 -
Of course, "literally rejecting an election" is nothing at all out of the ordinary, or we'd be having one every month!Philip_Thompson said:
If Labour reject an election then for the first time ever I hope the unelected Lords succeed in blocking the law. The undemocratic charge rather fails when the opposition are literally rejecting an election.MarqueeMark said:
Very.....DanSmith said:
How likely is it the filibuster is going to work?Morris_Dancer said:
Suspending parliament and frustrating the will of the Commons by filibustering n the Lords are somewhat rarer.0 -
When's the latest Corbyn can bring a motion of no confidence?MarqueeMark said:
Very.....DanSmith said:
How likely is it the filibuster is going to work?Morris_Dancer said:0 -
I'm surprised. Couldn't the Remainer majority simply vote for each person advancing a wrecking amendment not to be heard, and then move immediately to a vote? Or is it simply the case that there are so many amendments to be considered that the entire process couldn't possibly be completed within the available time?MarqueeMark said:
Very.....DanSmith said:
How likely is it the filibuster is going to work?Morris_Dancer said:0 -
They would install a new PM to act in the same manner as the bill if it was needed.MikeL said:If Lords do talk out the Benn Bill then:
Parliament comes back on Mon 14 Oct. Could Parliament then pass a Bill in time to force PM to get an extension on Sat 19 Oct?
Maybe, maybe not!!!0
