So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.
ICYMI
Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)
1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes 2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit. 3. Err, that's it.
2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.
Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.
Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too frit
Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.
As Gab2 states the government will VONC itself - Autumn General Election Nailed On
It hasn’t got the numbers to commit suicide. This truly is in office but not in power.
Comes back to what I've been saying for the last couple of days. If Johnson wants a shot at this election, he'll have to resign and do it as LOTO rather than PM.
So Corbyn would be a caretaker PM?
But if that happens Corbs would secure a 6 month extension and call a referendum. Which would change everything
Why would Corbyn call a referendum? He has lost much of his middle class support already. A referendum would hurt him with his working class support.
Are you serious? Of course he’d call a referendum. He’s already promised one. He’d be lynched by his own party if he didn’t. It’s the one policy area where he’s HAD to surrender, despite his personal reluctance
Corbyn has promised to support a referendum on a Tory Brexit. He has made no commitment on doing it for a Labour deal. If PM he would try to negotiate his own deal first (Customs Union etc) then he would say it is a compromise soft Brexit and another referendum would divide the country once more.
He is worse than Brown, possibly worse than May. There was me thinking: at least he can think on his feet. Now I am thinking that either I am entirely misremembering his performances on HIGNFY, or they were entirely scripted.
I think the past 24 hours have been utterly devastating for the Conservatives. Worse than Black Wednesday by a significant factor.
The optics are truly awful. Starting with Johnson's bullshit speech outside Number 10 being drowned out by booing. Losing a phlanx of the most solidly Tory MPs you could imagine through your own childish intransigence. The utterly bollocks "rowing back from austerity", Lee crossing the floor, the much bigger defeat than expected and the body language of Rees Mogg. 100,000 signing up to vote in 24 hours- the *same 24 hours* as the Tory government imploded.
This is the inflection point when the Tories can't get it back.
I think the polls will be increasingly terrifying for Johnson- no one likes losers, and they particularly don't like entitled bastard losers.
I also think that tactical voting against the Tories will accelerate the losses they are going to make.
1997 may not be the low point for the Tories- this time I don't think that they can come back.
You're not really a glass half full person are you.
What none of us really know on here is how this is playing outside our and Westminster's bubble
There are many of us who are constantly being confused and caught out by the political twists and turns but we seem to forget that millions just get on with their work and only hear the odd soundbite or the opinions of their family and friends
It is this cohort who will decide the next GE , not any of us
What none of us really know on here is how this is playing outside our and Westminster's bubble
There are many of us who are constantly being confused and caught out by the political twists and turns but we seem to forget that millions just get on with their work and only hear the odd soundbite or the opinions of their family and friends
It is this cohort who will decide the next GE , not any of us
My much less engaged, but liberaly remainy university friends seem to be going back to Labour.
So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.
ICYMI
Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)
1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes 2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit. 3. Err, that's it.
2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.
Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.
Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too frit
Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.
As Gab2 states the government will VONC itself - Autumn General Election Nailed On
It hasn’t got the numbers to commit suicide. This truly is in office but not in power.
Comes back to what I've been saying for the last couple of days. If Johnson wants a shot at this election, he'll have to resign and do it as LOTO rather than PM.
So Corbyn would be a caretaker PM?
But if that happens Corbs would secure a 6 month extension and call a referendum. Which would change everything
Why would Corbyn call a referendum? He has lost much of his middle class support already. A referendum would hurt him with his working class support.
Are you serious? Of course he’d call a referendum. He’s already promised one. He’d be lynched by his own party if he didn’t. It’s the one policy area where he’s HAD to surrender, despite his personal reluctance
Corbyn has promised to support a referendum on a Tory Brexit. He has made no commitment on doing it for a Labour deal. If PM he would try to negotiate his own deal first (Customs Union etc) then he would say it is a compromise soft Brexit and another referendum would divide the country once more.
No. He’s moved further, and now supports a 2nd vote on any deal
So thinking of the next two or three days only, correct me if I’m wrong but election wise it seems to look like this:
- Boris wants an election, and we can assume his 289 loyal MPs (and the DUP) would vote for it.
- Corbyn might want an election, but many of his backbenchers don’t. He seems to be saying yes, once the Queen signs the Act. Many of his backbenchers say not until after 31 Oct. They will abstain tonight be who knows about Fri/Mon.
- The SNP will vote for one once the Queen signs the Act. Presumably because they stand to gain massively.
- The LibDem position is unclear. The might be amenable as they stand to gain.
- Presumably most independents would be against both on the Brexit grounds and because they’d lose their seats. Woodcock and similar might vote for it as a way of binning Corbyn.
Is that about right? That being the case a 15 Oct election looks like a 60% chance because of Corbyn, the SNP, and the one clause Bill route. But who knows?
Not sure the DUP will be pleased at all with a GE (and they may not support no deal when push comes to shove, despite being pro Brexit and against the possible deals).
Contrary to popular belief, isn't the current farrago evidence that the Fixed Term Parliament Act is an improvement on the previous system? I say that because, under the old system, an unelected minority PM could have crashed us out in chaos, despite the will of parliament, by using his personal power to call a GE to get parliament out of the way over the critical date. With the Act in place, the opposition parties can ensure that the options are kept open until we've had a GE and any new government can then decide what to do.
Maybe in that one specific scenario it is an improvement, but forcing a government without a majority to limp along for months or years is in no-ones interest.
I'm also against captive Governments and deadlocked, useless Parliaments - though, to be absolutely fair, there is a way to resolve this issue. The Government can simply resign.
I've been thinking hard about yesterday's developments and the part the Labour Party has played in trying to prevent no deal. And for the first time in my life I'm coming around to the idea of voting for them.
I haven't yet made up my mind, and I think it's still less than 50% chance I'll vote for them. But it's always been 0% chance at every previous election, so something profound has changed for me.
No I don't really want Corbyn in be PM. Yes the antisemitism bothers me a great deal, but I'm taking my lead from two Jewish friends who don't think it's as bad as it's made out (one of them is in fact a Labour member, her husband is a now-homeless Conservative voter).
I am a floating voter, so I'm not nailing any colours to the mast, and a lot might change between now and polling day, whenever that may be. But part of my thinking is that I would like to give this Conservative government the kicking of a lifetime, and voting for Corbyn feels like *one* way of achieving that.
Happy to be persuaded out of this almost-certain folly. If anyone has a better idea of legally registering my disgust at this Boris Johnson government that does not involve voting for Corbyn's lot, I'm all ears.
Spoil your ballot with necessary crude language. Please don't vote for a man that commemorates Jew murderers. Your Jewish friends are not representative of the vast majority of Jews in this country, who are very scared at how much Corbyn will embolden anti-Semites and normalise such positions.
I myself am Jewish and the reason my grandparents came to this country as refugees was because of anti Jewish pogroms in Russia and Ukraine.
I also really do not like Corbyn and would hate him to be our PM.
However, if it came to it, I would vote for my local Labour candidate (she is great) if it was needed in a polarizing election.
A culture war might require me to take a side.
If you are culturally siding with the supporters of Hamas, the IRA and Black September, you are making a mistake.
This is absurdly black-and-white. My wife is Jewish and says much the same as Gallowgate.
Sometimes you need to see the wood for trees.
I would rather vote Lib Dem but unfortunately we don’t have proportional representation.
I will see where the wind is blowing and decide the best way to use my vote.
It’s all academic anyway as I live in a safe Labour seat.
Safe Labour seat here too..But that doesn't affect the way I vote. I vote for the outcomes I want, not the ones that I think other people want.
So about the same as the 2008/9 crash. Phew, that's a relief.
While the GDP impact might be similar to 2008/9, the practical impact on the ground will be much greater. It won't be something that most people don't notice.
So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.
1) Extension bill passes the Commons today 2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can 3) Bill passes Lords 4) VONC held, government 'loses' 5) Election held mid-October
Then two likely results:
6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform 7a) Extension bill repealed 8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not 9a) We leave the EU end of October
Or:
6b) Another hung parliament 7b) PM forced to extend 8b) Boris presumably resigns 9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails 10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in 11b) We extend for six months 12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE 13b) No one can form a government 14b) New election?
ICYMI
Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)
1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes 2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit. 3. Err, that's it.
2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.
Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.
Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too frit
Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.
As Gab2 states the government will VONC itself - Autumn General Election Nailed On
How do they VONC themselves?!
And if they do, do they lose the Whip? It's one way of getting rid of this government.
So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.
1) Extension bill passes the Commons today 2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can 3) Bill passes Lords 4) VONC held, government 'loses' 5) Election held mid-October
Then two likely results:
6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform 7a) Extension bill repealed 8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not 9a) We leave the EU end of October
Or:
6b) Another hung parliament 7b) PM forced to extend 8b) Boris presumably resigns 9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails 10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in 11b) We extend for six months 12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE 13b) No one can form a government 14b) New election?
ICYMI
Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)
1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes 2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit. 3. Err, that's it.
2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.
Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.
Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too frit
Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.
As Gab2 states the government will VONC itself - Autumn General Election Nailed On
It hasn’t got the numbers to commit suicide. This truly is in office but not in power.
Maybe the way to think of it is that Boris decides this job involves doing some hard work, hadn't realised that, and has had quite enough. So he goes to the palace to resign. QEII asks him to nominate a successor holding the confidence of the house - what does he say?
“Well liz me old monarch, that would be a toss up between David Attenborough and Judi Dench.”
So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.
1) Extension bill passes the Commons today 2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can 3) Bill passes Lords 4) VONC held, government 'loses' 5) Election held mid-October
Then two likely results:
6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform 7a) Extension bill repealed 8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not 9a) We leave the EU end of October
Or:
6b) Another hung parliament 7b) PM forced to extend 8b) Boris presumably resigns 9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails 10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in 11b) We extend for six months 12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE 13b) No one can form a government 14b) New election?
ICYMI
Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)
1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes 2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit. 3. Err, that's it.
2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.
Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.
Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too frit
Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.
As Gab2 states the government will VONC itself - Autumn General Election Nailed On
How do they VONC themselves?!
And if they do, do they lose the Whip? It's one way of getting rid of this government.
And do those who vote against the no-confidence motion regain the whip?
It's one way of getting Rory Stewart as PM in a government of national unity!
Boris Johnson withdrawing the whip is an interesting development especially if those MPs who have had the whip withdrawn contest their seats again. From a financial perspective MPs certainly used to get more money if they contested a seat rather than just retired.
If the MPs (One Nation Tories) intervene in a GE then Boris could well have shot himself in the foot as he is turning safe seats into marginal ones in some areas. This means using precious resources to elect MPs in what once was a safe seat. For instance Rory Stewart has said he will contest his seat as an Independent but he would rather do it under Conservative party colours.
Instead of being able to combat other parties Boris’s short-sightedness or the incompetence of his advice may well have led to less resources keeping the LD and SNP at bay or winning safe Labour seats off Labour. You cannot spend resources twice and a decision will have to be made to neglect one set of seats at the expense of others. I think the current electoral strategy of the Tories is barking and they will suffer a humbling defeat. I don’t believe the Tories can take safe seats off Labour in the North and Midlands. Certainly I will be tactically voting against the Tories…
So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.
ICYMI
Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)
1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes 2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit. 3. Err, that's it.
2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.
Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.
Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too frit
Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.
As Gab2 states the government will VONC itself - Autumn General Election Nailed On
It hasn’t got the numbers to commit suicide. This truly is in office but not in power.
Comes back to what I've been saying for the last couple of days. If Johnson wants a shot at this election, he'll have to resign and do it as LOTO rather than PM.
So Corbyn would be a caretaker PM?
But if that happens Corbs would secure a 6 month extension and call a referendum. Which would change everything
Why would Corbyn call a referendum? He has lost much of his middle class support already. A referendum would hurt him with his working class support.
Are you serious? Of course he’d call a referendum. He’s already promised one. He’d be lynched by his own party if he didn’t. It’s the one policy area where he’s HAD to surrender, despite his personal reluctance
Corbyn has promised to support a referendum on a Tory Brexit. He has made no commitment on doing it for a Labour deal. If PM he would try to negotiate his own deal first (Customs Union etc) then he would say it is a compromise soft Brexit and another referendum would divide the country once more.
No. He’s moved further, and now supports a 2nd vote on any deal
Bails off in Manchester. That's a small advantage for the fielding side as it means ANY touch of the ball on the wickets will be a dismissal (Not all touches remove the bails)
So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.
1) Extension bill passes the Commons today 2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can 3) Bill passes Lords 4) VONC held, government 'loses' 5) Election held mid-October
Then two likely results:
6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform 7a) Extension bill repealed 8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not 9a) We leave the EU end of October
Or:
6b) Another hung parliament 7b) PM forced to extend 8b) Boris presumably resigns 9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails 10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in 11b) We extend for six months 12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE 13b) No one can form a government 14b) New election?
ICYMI
Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)
1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes 2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit. 3. Err, that's it.
2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.
Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.
Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too frit
Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.
As Gab2 states the government will VONC itself - Autumn General Election Nailed On
It hasn’t got the numbers to commit suicide. This truly is in office but not in power.
Comes back to what I've been saying for the last couple of days. If Johnson wants a shot at this election, he'll have to resign and do it as LOTO rather than PM.
So Corbyn would be a caretaker PM?
But if that happens Corbs would secure a 6 month extension and call a referendum. Which would change everything
It's good for the fielding side, anything the umpires think has clipped the bails will be reviewed by DRS.
Confirmed: Broad is having a discussion with Marais Erasmus about the playing conditions now there are no bails. Marais says "you just need to hit the stumps"
So about the same as the 2008/9 crash. Phew, that's a relief.
While the GDP impact might be similar to 2008/9, the practical impact on the ground will be much greater. It won't be something that most people don't notice.
That's probably true, and another big difference is that the economic pain will be more concentrated on specific sectors (manufacturing, agriculture, fishing) and areas (NI). So plenty of scope for media horror stories.
The good news is that this time round the City shouldn't be so badly hit, but I'm not that voters generally will see that as unalloyed good news.
Actually, yes, I just checked. I think you’re right (but I’m still unsure). If so: apologies.
But these are terrifying stats. Why aren’t they better known? Before today’s revision the BoE was expecting a near-10% drop in GDP. i.e. almost a Depression not a recession.
He's got to be worried. Every journalist on radio and TV are laughing at him. 'I can't remember a leader's support draining so fast' said one. Where are the non apparatchiks to speak up for him? The best he's had are those trying to blame Cummings. Being hopeless by proxy is not a defense.
Contrary to popular belief, isn't the current farrago evidence that the Fixed Term Parliament Act is an improvement on the previous system? I say that because, under the old system, an unelected minority PM could have crashed us out in chaos, despite the will of parliament, by using his personal power to call a GE to get parliament out of the way over the critical date. With the Act in place, the opposition parties can ensure that the options are kept open until we've had a GE and any new government can then decide what to do.
Maybe in that one specific scenario it is an improvement, but forcing a government without a majority to limp along for months or years is in no-ones interest.
Au contraire, the problem with most governments is hyperactivity.
A government that is unable to do much at all is often a blessing for businesses, who are safe in the knowledge that they aren't going to faff around with legislation needlessly, causing unintended consequences, as is exactly what happens 99.9% of the time.
This was what I asked for the other day and nobody could find. Clearly I was wrong. But Corbyn would still wait to renegotiate first.
An extra thought on this. I can not imagine the new Tory Party, expunged of many Remainers both in parliament and in the electorate, will accept the result of a second referendum to Remain. They will say the other side wasn't bound by the previous one so why should they listen? It is highly likely they put a pledge to leave the EU in their manifesto for every GE from now on. Leaving the EU will be as much part of Tory DNA as leaving the UK is for the SNP.
So about the same as the 2008/9 crash. Phew, that's a relief.
While the GDP impact might be similar to 2008/9, the practical impact on the ground will be much greater. It won't be something that most people don't notice.
I remember being out of work in 2008/2009. The lack of jobs felt like you had been consigned to a pit with glass walls and no way out. How anyone can consider this type of economic ruin a good thing is beyond belief. Truly, those who want a No Deal Brexit should be the ones who have to pay the price for it...
So, it looks like it is McDonnell and Starmer v Corbyn and the Morning Star Brexiteers, with the vast majority of the PLP on the former's side. It is for moments like these that Labour MPs will tell you they have not walked away. Today they have real power and there is absolutely nothing Corbyn, Momentum, Milne or anyone else can do about it.
What none of us really know on here is how this is playing outside our and Westminster's bubble
There are many of us who are constantly being confused and caught out by the political twists and turns but we seem to forget that millions just get on with their work and only hear the odd soundbite or the opinions of their family and friends
It is this cohort who will decide the next GE , not any of us
Indeed. That comment just now about the Tories doing worse than 1997 was just incredible. I can go to the Guardian for that sort of nonsense. What you’re supposed to find here is killer analysis predicting closely contested outcomes, not these heartfelt laments about how the world should be.
The weekend polls should give some proper perspective on “the worst PMQs performance of all time”. I’ll confidently predict they won’t show the Tories on 165 seats or less.
Actually, yes, I just checked. I think you’re right (but I’m still unsure). If so: apologies.
But these are terrifying stats. Why aren’t they better known? Before today’s revision the BoE was expecting a near-10% drop in GDP. i.e. almost a Depression not a recession.
Ouch!
To be honest I wouldn't take those forecasts too seriously, in the sense that no-one can really model this stuff. There simply aren't any precedents in peacetime in a modern integrated economy. That doesn't necessarily mean that the forecasts are too pessimistic; they might just as easily be too optimistic.
As it happens, though, a slump comparable to 2008/9 was my guesstimate posted here some time ago. I think it's the right order of magnitude.
I've been thinking hard about yesterday's developments and the part the Labour Party has played in trying to prevent no deal. And for the first time in my life I'm coming around to the idea of voting for them.
I haven't yet made up my mind, and I think it's still less than 50% chance I'll vote for them. But it's always been 0% chance at every previous election, so something profound has changed for me.
No I don't really want Corbyn in be PM. Yes the antisemitism bothers me a great deal, but I'm taking my lead from two Jewish friends who don't think it's as bad as it's made out (one of them is in fact a Labour member, her husband is a now-homeless Conservative voter).
I am a floating voter, so I'm not nailing any colours to the mast, and a lot might change between now and polling day, whenever that may be. But part of my thinking is that I would like to give this Conservative government the kicking of a lifetime, and voting for Corbyn feels like *one* way of achieving that.
Happy to be persuaded out of this almost-certain folly. If anyone has a better idea of legally registering my disgust at this Boris Johnson government that does not involve voting for Corbyn's lot, I'm all ears.
Spoil your ballot with necessary crude language. Please don't vote for a man that commemorates Jew murderers. Your Jewish friends are not representative of the vast majority of Jews in this country, who are very scared at how much Corbyn will embolden anti-Semites and normalise such positions.
I myself am Jewish and the reason my grandparents came to this country as refugees was because of anti Jewish pogroms in Russia and Ukraine.
I also really do not like Corbyn and would hate him to be our PM.
However, if it came to it, I would vote for my local Labour candidate (she is great) if it was needed in a polarizing election.
A culture war might require me to take a side.
If you are culturally siding with the supporters of Hamas, the IRA and Black September, you are making a mistake.
My MP is a filthy blairite lickspittle so my conscience is clear.
Yes, I could happily vote for some Lab candidates and not others. Political geography makes a big difference in these things.
Contrary to popular belief, isn't the current farrago evidence that the Fixed Term Parliament Act is an improvement on the previous system? I say that because, under the old system, an unelected minority PM could have crashed us out in chaos, despite the will of parliament, by using his personal power to call a GE to get parliament out of the way over the critical date. With the Act in place, the opposition parties can ensure that the options are kept open until we've had a GE and any new government can then decide what to do.
Maybe in that one specific scenario it is an improvement, but forcing a government without a majority to limp along for months or years is in no-ones interest.
Au contraire, the problem with most governments is hyperactivity.
A government that is unable to do much at all is often a blessing for businesses, who are safe in the knowledge that they aren't going to faff around with legislation needlessly, causing unintended consequences, as is exactly what happens 99.9% of the time.
True, but a common complaint against this and the last government is that it is myopically focused on Brexit.
Actually, yes, I just checked. I think you’re right (but I’m still unsure). If so: apologies.
But these are terrifying stats. Why aren’t they better known? Before today’s revision the BoE was expecting a near-10% drop in GDP. i.e. almost a Depression not a recession.
Ouch!
To be honest I wouldn't take those forecasts too seriously, in the sense that no-one can really model this stuff. There simply aren't any precedents in peacetime in a modern integrated economy. That doesn't necessarily mean that the forecasts are too pessimistic; they might just as easily be too optimistic.
As it happens, though, a slump comparable to 2008/9 was my guesstimate posted here some time ago. I think it's the right order of magnitude.
Either you, the guardian or Carney is wrong. Or all of you. See my recent post
I've been thinking hard about yesterday's developments and the part the Labour Party has played in trying to prevent no deal. And for the first time in my life I'm coming around to the idea of voting for them.
I haven't yet made up my mind, and I think it's still less than 50% chance I'll vote for them. But it's always been 0% chance at every previous election, so something profound has changed for me.
No I don't really want Corbyn in be PM. Yes the antisemitism bothers me a great deal, but I'm taking my lead from two Jewish friends who don't think it's as bad as it's made out (one of them is in fact a Labour member, her husband is a now-homeless Conservative voter).
I am a floating voter, so I'm not nailing any colours to the mast, and a lot might change between now and polling day, whenever that may be. But part of my thinking is that I would like to give this Conservative government the kicking of a lifetime, and voting for Corbyn feels like *one* way of achieving that.
Happy to be persuaded out of this almost-certain folly. If anyone has a better idea of legally registering my disgust at this Boris Johnson government that does not involve voting for Corbyn's lot, I'm all ears.
Voting Lib Dem would seem to solve your dilemma.
See, that's my default at the moment. But a lot of Conservatives will be treating the Lib Dems as their lifeboat (that friend of mine I mentioned is leaning that way). So it feels like a Lib Dem vote will fulfil the requirement of /opposing/ Boris, but not the requirement to give him the electoral kicking he deserves.
In much of England voting LD is the most effective way to kick BoZo up the arse.
So about the same as the 2008/9 crash. Phew, that's a relief.
While the GDP impact might be similar to 2008/9, the practical impact on the ground will be much greater. It won't be something that most people don't notice.
I remember being out of work in 2008/2009. The lack of jobs felt like you had been consigned to a pit with glass walls and no way out. How anyone can consider this type of economic ruin a good thing is beyond belief. Truly, those who want a No Deal Brexit should be the ones who have to pay the price for it...
True. I only wish Jacob Rees-Mogg really understood what enforced idleness is like.
It looks like there'll still be an election on 15th October, as long as the government agrees to a law saying a no deal Brexit won't happen. If Johnson wins the election he can cancel that law, although time would be short.
So about the same as the 2008/9 crash. Phew, that's a relief.
While the GDP impact might be similar to 2008/9, the practical impact on the ground will be much greater. It won't be something that most people don't notice.
I think the past 24 hours have been utterly devastating for the Conservatives. Worse than Black Wednesday by a significant factor.
The optics are truly awful. Starting with Johnson's bullshit speech outside Number 10 being drowned out by booing. Losing a phlanx of the most solidly Tory MPs you could imagine through your own childish intransigence. The utterly bollocks "rowing back from austerity", Lee crossing the floor, the much bigger defeat than expected and the body language of Rees Mogg. 100,000 signing up to vote in 24 hours- the *same 24 hours* as the Tory government imploded.
This is the inflection point when the Tories can't get it back.
I think the polls will be increasingly terrifying for Johnson- no one likes losers, and they particularly don't like entitled bastard losers.
I also think that tactical voting against the Tories will accelerate the losses they are going to make.
1997 may not be the low point for the Tories- this time I don't think that they can come back.
The Tories scraped in at just over 30% of the vote even in 1997. They've been written off before, in error. You *might* be correct, but I'll believe it when I see it.
Besides, this is a potentially very complex election, in which four and possibly five parties could poll over 10% in England, as well as in Scotland and Wales. If the Tories manage to hold on to 30% of the vote then they could win an outright majority if it stacks up in the right places.
In short, nobody has the faintest idea of how this is all going to pan out.
Between them, the Conservative/Brexit Party/UKIP vote share of 46% or so seems pretty solid. There can certainly be shifts within this group, but I suspect not many people will shift out of it, now.
Actually, yes, I just checked. I think you’re right (but I’m still unsure). If so: apologies.
But these are terrifying stats. Why aren’t they better known? Before today’s revision the BoE was expecting a near-10% drop in GDP. i.e. almost a Depression not a recession.
Ouch!
To be honest I wouldn't take those forecasts too seriously, in the sense that no-one can really model this stuff. There simply aren't any precedents in peacetime in a modern integrated economy. That doesn't necessarily mean that the forecasts are too pessimistic; they might just as easily be too optimistic.
As it happens, though, a slump comparable to 2008/9 was my guesstimate posted here some time ago. I think it's the right order of magnitude.
I hope so as the next order of magnitude is a 50% drop in GDP.
I'm picking up a whiff of MASSIVE tactical voting against Johnson if there is an election in this climate. But I'm still worried because Cummings will probably have 'gamed' that. It's what he does. He's a stone cold genius.
So about the same as the 2008/9 crash. Phew, that's a relief.
While the GDP impact might be similar to 2008/9, the practical impact on the ground will be much greater. It won't be something that most people don't notice.
lol
you think they didnt notice the GFC ?
For lots of people the only impact was that their mortgage got cheaper.
And since then no deal has been mitigated? So where does this 5% shrinkage come from?
I think it’s possibly lost growth and you’re reading it wrong.
Apologies for butting in but do not forget this is the BoE worst case scenario. So there are assumptions used that have a very small percentage of happening. For example in this worst case scenario the EU refuses to accept UK exports to them that meet EU product regulations. may happen but we already know that the EU has legislated that cars that got EU type approval from VOSA will still have type approval after no deal brexit so can still be sold in the EU.
This was what I asked for the other day and nobody could find. Clearly I was wrong. But Corbyn would still wait to renegotiate first.
An extra thought on this. I can not imagine the new Tory Party, expunged of many Remainers both in parliament and in the electorate, will accept the result of a second referendum to Remain. They will say the other side wasn't bound by the previous one so why should they listen? It is highly likely they put a pledge to leave the EU in their manifesto for every GE from now on. Leaving the EU will be as much part of Tory DNA as leaving the UK is for the SNP.
The fallout from both 2014 and 2016 has been a masterclass in why representative and direct democracy are wholly incompatible. First the Scottish electorate votes in a Nationalist Government and then denies it its core policy objective at a referendum. Then the UK electorate votes for a policy in a referendum, but elects a Parliament that is unwilling and unable to implement the policy. The result is that the policy in dispute gains a life of its own and all else begins to revolve and polarise around it. Scotland has Ulsterized around independence, and it's quite possible that England will Ulsterize around membership of the EU. It's hugely destructive.
We should therefore follow the example of the Germans and ban plebiscites under all circumstances save two: an NI border poll, because of the GFA, and for ratification or amendment of a constitution, should Parliament decide that one is needed and put it to the people.
As far as any other issue, include Scottish independence, is concerned, it should be a matter for our representatives. England as well as Scotland and Wales should have its own Parliament and, if we are going to continue to recognise the Union between them as temporary and dissoluble rather than permanent, then all three of those bodies should have a right to vote for secession, subject to certain limited safeguards.
So about the same as the 2008/9 crash. Phew, that's a relief.
While the GDP impact might be similar to 2008/9, the practical impact on the ground will be much greater. It won't be something that most people don't notice.
lol
you think they didnt notice the GFC ?
For lots of people the only impact was that their mortgage got cheaper.
So, it looks like it is McDonnell and Starmer v Corbyn and the Morning Star Brexiteers, with the vast majority of the PLP on the former's side. It is for moments like these that Labour MPs will tell you they have not walked away. Today they have real power and there is absolutely nothing Corbyn, Momentum, Milne or anyone else can do about it.
The real test doesn't come now. It comes if Labour wins an election outright and Corbyn and McDonnell choose to try to unleash Disaster Socialism upon the country. Which, if any, of the more extreme ideas in the Labour manifesto will the "moderates" vote down?
Contrary to popular belief, isn't the current farrago evidence that the Fixed Term Parliament Act is an improvement on the previous system? I say that because, under the old system, an unelected minority PM could have crashed us out in chaos, despite the will of parliament, by using his personal power to call a GE to get parliament out of the way over the critical date. With the Act in place, the opposition parties can ensure that the options are kept open until we've had a GE and any new government can then decide what to do.
Maybe in that one specific scenario it is an improvement, but forcing a government without a majority to limp along for months or years is in no-ones interest.
Is it clear what would happen next if Boris unilaterally resigned as PM and took his bat home, declining to name a successor? The FTPA seems not to allow for it, but if he did it it would be hard to see how he could be stopped.
I'm picking up a whiff of MASSIVE tactical voting against Johnson if there is an election in this climate. But I'm still worried because Cummings will probably have 'gamed' that. It's what he does. He's a stone cold genius.
Cummings is heading for a major fall from grace. The Sam Allardyce of politics.
Contrary to popular belief, isn't the current farrago evidence that the Fixed Term Parliament Act is an improvement on the previous system? I say that because, under the old system, an unelected minority PM could have crashed us out in chaos, despite the will of parliament, by using his personal power to call a GE to get parliament out of the way over the critical date. With the Act in place, the opposition parties can ensure that the options are kept open until we've had a GE and any new government can then decide what to do.
Maybe in that one specific scenario it is an improvement, but forcing a government without a majority to limp along for months or years is in no-ones interest.
If it is in no one's interest then it would get the 2/3s VoNC vote in Parliament.
Either you, the guardian or Carney is wrong. Or all of you. See my recent post
It depends what timescale you look at. Yes it's lost growth if you look far enough out, but to get there you have substantial downturn first.
Hahaha. I pwned the great Nabavi. All your base are belong to I. Etc
But it’s an understandable error. That is truly shit reporting by the Guardian. Making lost growth look like absolute shrinkage? TSK
Eh? If you look at the graph, there's an absolute shrinkage of just over 6% at the lowest point (from 107 to just above 100 where 100=2016 GDP). There is then growth but it's only back to 107 by Q4 2022 - still about 6% lower GDP than the forecast without crash-out.
Comments
"We're Sh*t And We Know It" is a winning strategy.
There are many of us who are constantly being confused and caught out by the political twists and turns but we seem to forget that millions just get on with their work and only hear the odd soundbite or the opinions of their family and friends
It is this cohort who will decide the next GE , not any of us
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/27/jeremy-corbyn-signals-more-support-for-second-referendum-after-voter-exodus
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1169254673410400256
https://twitter.com/Doylech/status/1169265436317368320
So about the same as the 2008/9 crash. Phew, that's a relief.
https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/c6037abcaae9e3b3ab9a178ee89ce7feea7570fb/0_0_765_470/master/765.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=588ac6f9a911fbed529d9a4d0d5e1c82
It's one way of getting Rory Stewart as PM in a government of national unity!
If the MPs (One Nation Tories) intervene in a GE then Boris could well have shot himself in the foot as he is turning safe seats into marginal ones in some areas. This means using precious resources to elect MPs in what once was a safe seat. For instance Rory Stewart has said he will contest his seat as an Independent but he would rather do it under Conservative party colours.
Instead of being able to combat other parties Boris’s short-sightedness or the incompetence of his advice may well have led to less resources keeping the LD and SNP at bay or winning safe Labour seats off Labour. You cannot spend resources twice and a decision will have to be made to neglect one set of seats at the expense of others. I think the current electoral strategy of the Tories is barking and they will suffer a humbling defeat. I don’t believe the Tories can take safe seats off Labour in the North and Midlands. Certainly I will be tactically voting against the Tories…
If you live in a safe Labour seat, vote Lib Dem.
Confirmed: Broad is having a discussion with Marais Erasmus about the playing conditions now there are no bails. Marais says "you just need to hit the stumps"
The good news is that this time round the City shouldn't be so badly hit, but I'm not that voters generally will see that as unalloyed good news.
But these are terrifying stats. Why aren’t they better known? Before today’s revision the BoE was expecting a near-10% drop in GDP. i.e. almost a Depression not a recession.
Ouch!
A government that is unable to do much at all is often a blessing for businesses, who are safe in the knowledge that they aren't going to faff around with legislation needlessly, causing unintended consequences, as is exactly what happens 99.9% of the time.
I have returned!
Has anything dramatic happened in the last 9 hours or so?
The weekend polls should give some proper perspective on “the worst PMQs performance of all time”. I’ll confidently predict they won’t show the Tories on 165 seats or less.
Brexit continues to destroy all it touches.
As it happens, though, a slump comparable to 2008/9 was my guesstimate posted here some time ago. I think it's the right order of magnitude.
Back in July the OBR thought no deal would only shrink the economy by 2%
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jul/18/no-deal-brexit-would-plunge-britain-into-a-recession-says-obr
And since then no deal has been mitigated? So where does this 5% shrinkage come from?
I think it’s possibly lost growth and you’re reading it wrong.
Oh, wait ...
That this Bill gets through the Lords quickly for a start...
you think they didnt notice the GFC ?
But it’s an understandable error. That is truly shit reporting by the Guardian. Making lost growth look like absolute shrinkage? TSK
Mr. P, I see the PM's cunning plan to re-enact the Battle of Lake Trasimene would be going better if he were playing Hannibal rather than Flaminius.
We should therefore follow the example of the Germans and ban plebiscites under all circumstances save two: an NI border poll, because of the GFA, and for ratification or amendment of a constitution, should Parliament decide that one is needed and put it to the people.
As far as any other issue, include Scottish independence, is concerned, it should be a matter for our representatives. England as well as Scotland and Wales should have its own Parliament and, if we are going to continue to recognise the Union between them as temporary and dissoluble rather than permanent, then all three of those bodies should have a right to vote for secession, subject to certain limited safeguards.
What sort of genius is Cumming supposed to be?
I had to double check then that the grapes weren't grown up there! (they are grown in the slightly less astounding Leicestershire)
out in the working world it was diffewrent.
Their OODA loops are all over the place now!
https://twitter.com/everbluetonian/status/1168201295347494913?s=19
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1169278040360308738