politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Boris Johnson ignores the no deal law then 50/1 on him bein
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Boris Johnson ignores the no deal law then 50/1 on him being suspended from the Commons this year looks attractive
If Boris Johnson does ignore any law passed by parliament to stop a no-deal Brexit, something which Michael Gove repeatedly refused rule out on Sunday as we see the in the video above then I expect Parliament to take action.
Comments
-
So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.
1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October
Then two likely results:
6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October
Or:
6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?
0 -
Nice continuation thread0
-
ICYMIGabs2 said:So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.
1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October
Then two likely results:
6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October
Or:
6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?
Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)
1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.0 -
2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.JBriskinindyref2 said:
ICYMIGabs2 said:So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.
1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October
Then two likely results:
6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October
Or:
6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?
Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)
1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.
Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.0 -
6c. Corbyn resigns after failing to take Labour to victory.Gabs2 said:So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.
1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October
Then two likely results:
6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October
Or:
6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?
9c. New Labour leader attempts to form coalition.0 -
Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too friteek said:
2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.JBriskinindyref2 said:
ICYMIGabs2 said:So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.
1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October
Then two likely results:
6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October
Or:
6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?
Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)
1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.
Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.0 -
When is the celebrity fund-raising TV special?
https://twitter.com/RohitKachrooITV/status/11692621259461468220 -
Is Milne taking back control from Starmer ?JBriskinindyref2 said:
Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too friteek said:
2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.JBriskinindyref2 said:
ICYMIGabs2 said:So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.
1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October
Then two likely results:
6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October
Or:
6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?
Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)
1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.
Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.0 -
All the Sky News presenters are having a party. They think Brexit is cancelled!0
-
Kinda fancy that one on Boris being the shortest-serving PM ……. courtesy of a tactical resignation to provoke a general election. Seems quite plausible rather than being forced into going for an extension.0
-
I think - as the TV people keep stating - it's a fluid situationPulpstar said:
Is Milne taking back control from Starmer ?JBriskinindyref2 said:
Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too friteek said:
2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.JBriskinindyref2 said:
ICYMIGabs2 said:So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.
1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October
Then two likely results:
6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October
Or:
6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?
Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)
1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.
Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.0 -
Good afternoon all.
Just watching Chris Bryant and Jeffrey Archer chatting to Beth Rigby on Sky News. Suggestion from that discussion is that the wheeze of defeating the emergency EU Withdrawal (No.6) Bill by advising the Queen not give Royal Assent won't work, which shields HM from the nuclear fallout for the immediate future at least...0 -
I think they're probably just happy at a potential GEXtrain said:All the Sky News presenters are having a party. They think Brexit is cancelled!
0 -
Labour has announced they will support a GE once bill is passed.JBriskinindyref2 said:
ICYMIGabs2 said:So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.
1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October
Then two likely results:
6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October
Or:
6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?
Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)
1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.0 -
Which doesn't contradict what I saidGabs2 said:
Labour has announced they will support a GE once bill is passed.JBriskinindyref2 said:
ICYMIGabs2 said:So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.
1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October
Then two likely results:
6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October
Or:
6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?
Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)
1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.0 -
I think he is more likely to resign than risk such an outcome.0
-
He does that then Phil Hammond sustains a Corbyn govt for the next 3 yearsAndrew said:Kinda fancy that one on Boris being the shortest-serving PM ……. courtesy of a tactical resignation to provoke a general election. Seems quite plausible rather than being forced into going for an extension.
0 -
Hammond just said in Commons that need to allow time for litigation as Govt likely to dispute interpretation of the Bill.0
-
Sixteenth like the letters in Graham Brady's safe?
I know he's stood down and it'll be someone else now, but for old times sake...0 -
Hammond monstering Johnson.-2
-
Does anyone know whether there was any explanation of why the Queen's consent was not required?0
-
43 and three quarters like letters in Graham Brady safe.
You don’t mean suspended from the ceiling of the commons, with EU flags tied to his wrists and ankles?0 -
This is no longer about Europe.0
-
I've been thinking hard about yesterday's developments and the part the Labour Party has played in trying to prevent no deal. And for the first time in my life I'm coming around to the idea of voting for them.
I haven't yet made up my mind, and I think it's still less than 50% chance I'll vote for them. But it's always been 0% chance at every previous election, so something profound has changed for me.
No I don't really want Corbyn in be PM. Yes the antisemitism bothers me a great deal, but I'm taking my lead from two Jewish friends who don't think it's as bad as it's made out (one of them is in fact a Labour member, her husband is a now-homeless Conservative voter).
I am a floating voter, so I'm not nailing any colours to the mast, and a lot might change between now and polling day, whenever that may be. But part of my thinking is that I would like to give this Conservative government the kicking of a lifetime, and voting for Corbyn feels like *one* way of achieving that.
Happy to be persuaded out of this almost-certain folly. If anyone has a better idea of legally registering my disgust at this Boris Johnson government that does not involve voting for Corbyn's lot, I'm all ears.0 -
re Kinnock amendment (May's deal): There's always been a group of Labour MPs who wanted to support the WA but couldn't because of the Labour whip. Now that everyone's scrabbling around for a way of avoiding No Deal, they feel a bit braver (?) in going against the dear leader. But bear in mind that Corbyn was against the WA largely because he was using Brexit as leverage into a general election. Now a GE is imminent so I think he'd secretly be rather pleased if the WA was passed now. And it'd be a killer for the Tories. lol0
-
Does anyone trust them not to go back on that out of self interest?JBriskinindyref2 said:
Which doesn't contradict what I saidGabs2 said:
Labour has announced they will support a GE once bill is passed.JBriskinindyref2 said:
ICYMIGabs2 said:So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.
1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October
Then two likely results:
6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October
Or:
6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?
Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)
1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.0 -
I think we have a winner for the JRM pictures:
https://twitter.com/oisingrip/status/1169163390754926592/photo/12 -
So if Labour doesn't back it, Boris will do everything he can to play for time. Then resign. Corbyn will try to become PM and won't get the support. Presumably Grieve or Hammond becomes PM with the necessary Labour backing and extends. After that I imagine Corbyn withdraws support and nobody can form a government. Then a two week wait and a General Election.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Which doesn't contradict what I saidGabs2 said:
Labour has announced they will support a GE once bill is passed.JBriskinindyref2 said:
ICYMIGabs2 said:So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.
1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October
Then two likely results:
6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October
Or:
6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?
Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)
1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.0 -
It never was.Fenman said:This is no longer about Europe.
0 -
Thankyou. That is genuinely useful. I was equally confuzzledGabs2 said:So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.
1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October
Then two likely results:
6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October
Or:
6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?0 -
"wanted to support the WA but couldn't because of the Labour whip" didn't seem to be an issue for the Tory rebels (On either side !)Dadge said:re Kinnock amendment (May's deal): There's always been a group of Labour MPs who wanted to support the WA but couldn't because of the Labour whip. Now that everyone's scrabbling around for a way of avoiding No Deal, they feel a bit braver (?) in going against the dear leader. But bear in mind that Corbyn was against the WA largely because he was using Brexit as leverage into a general election. Now a GE is imminent so I think he'd secretly be rather pleased if the WA was passed now. And it'd be a killer for the Tories. lol
0 -
Spoil your ballot with necessary crude language. Please don't vote for a man that commemorates Jew murderers. Your Jewish friends are not representative of the vast majority of Jews in this country, who are very scared at how much Corbyn will embolden anti-Semites and normalise such positions.Noo said:I've been thinking hard about yesterday's developments and the part the Labour Party has played in trying to prevent no deal. And for the first time in my life I'm coming around to the idea of voting for them.
I haven't yet made up my mind, and I think it's still less than 50% chance I'll vote for them. But it's always been 0% chance at every previous election, so something profound has changed for me.
No I don't really want Corbyn in be PM. Yes the antisemitism bothers me a great deal, but I'm taking my lead from two Jewish friends who don't think it's as bad as it's made out (one of them is in fact a Labour member, her husband is a now-homeless Conservative voter).
I am a floating voter, so I'm not nailing any colours to the mast, and a lot might change between now and polling day, whenever that may be. But part of my thinking is that I would like to give this Conservative government the kicking of a lifetime, and voting for Corbyn feels like *one* way of achieving that.
Happy to be persuaded out of this almost-certain folly. If anyone has a better idea of legally registering my disgust at this Boris Johnson government that does not involve voting for Corbyn's lot, I'm all ears.1 -
Yes from memory it's the same decision as for Cooper Letwin - Bercow used dates in his references.Chris said:0 -
Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too friteek said:
2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.JBriskinindyref2 said:
ICYMIGabs2 said:So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.
1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October
Then two likely results:
6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October
Or:
6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?
Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)
1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.
Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.0 -
I think the past 24 hours have been utterly devastating for the Conservatives. Worse than Black Wednesday by a significant factor.
The optics are truly awful. Starting with Johnson's bullshit speech outside Number 10 being drowned out by booing. Losing a phlanx of the most solidly Tory MPs you could imagine through your own childish intransigence. The utterly bollocks "rowing back from austerity", Lee crossing the floor, the much bigger defeat than expected and the body language of Rees Mogg. 100,000 signing up to vote in 24 hours- the *same 24 hours* as the Tory government imploded.
This is the inflection point when the Tories can't get it back.
I think the polls will be increasingly terrifying for Johnson- no one likes losers, and they particularly don't like entitled bastard losers.
I also think that tactical voting against the Tories will accelerate the losses they are going to make.
1997 may not be the low point for the Tories- this time I don't think that they can come back.1 -
You got me. I've not seen any official explanation yet. You could argue it infringes a little bit on the prerogative power to negotiation with other countries. But that'd be a weak case in my not-lawyer opinion.Chris said:0 -
That, and John McDonnell plans to destroy the entire basis of the economy by setting aside the right to private property with a mass programme of expropriations.Gabs2 said:
Spoil your ballot with necessary crude language. Please don't vote for a man that commemorates Jew murderers. Your Jewish friends are not representative of the vast majority of Jews in this country, who are very scared at how much Corbyn will embolden anti-Semites and normalise such positions.Noo said:I've been thinking hard about yesterday's developments and the part the Labour Party has played in trying to prevent no deal. And for the first time in my life I'm coming around to the idea of voting for them.
I haven't yet made up my mind, and I think it's still less than 50% chance I'll vote for them. But it's always been 0% chance at every previous election, so something profound has changed for me.
No I don't really want Corbyn in be PM. Yes the antisemitism bothers me a great deal, but I'm taking my lead from two Jewish friends who don't think it's as bad as it's made out (one of them is in fact a Labour member, her husband is a now-homeless Conservative voter).
I am a floating voter, so I'm not nailing any colours to the mast, and a lot might change between now and polling day, whenever that may be. But part of my thinking is that I would like to give this Conservative government the kicking of a lifetime, and voting for Corbyn feels like *one* way of achieving that.
Happy to be persuaded out of this almost-certain folly. If anyone has a better idea of legally registering my disgust at this Boris Johnson government that does not involve voting for Corbyn's lot, I'm all ears.0 -
egg said:
Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too friteek said:
2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.JBriskinindyref2 said:
ICYMIGabs2 said:So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.
1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October
Then two likely results:
6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October
Or:
6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?
Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)
1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.
Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.
No. Labour, especially Corbyn, are too dim, desperate and greedy to realise they are best served by waiting. GE in October if Surrender Bill passes.
0 -
As Gab2 states the government will VONC itself - Autumn General Election Nailed Onegg said:
Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too friteek said:
2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.JBriskinindyref2 said:
ICYMIGabs2 said:So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.
1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October
Then two likely results:
6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October
Or:
6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?
Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)
1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.
Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.0 -
A collection from ITV:RobD said:I think we have a winner for the JRM pictures:
https://twitter.com/oisingrip/status/1169163390754926592/photo/1
https://www.itv.com/news/2019-09-04/jacob-rees-mogg-gets-meme-treatment-after-commons-lie-down-goes-viral/0 -
I wish I agreed with you but I don’t. Boris is playing to the gallery and it will be popular.Cicero said:I think the past 24 hours have been utterly devastating for the Conservatives. Worse than Black Wednesday by a significant factor.
The optics are truly awful. Starting with Johnson's bullshit speech outside Number 10 being drowned out by booing. Losing a phlanx of the most solidly Tory MPs you could imagine through your own childish intransigence. The utterly bollocks "rowing back from austerity", Lee crossing the floor, the much bigger defeat than expected and the body language of Rees Mogg. 100,000 signing up to vote in 24 hours- the *same 24 hours* as the Tory government imploded.
This is the inflection point when the Tories can't get it back.
I think the polls will be increasingly terrifying for Johnson- no one likes losers, and they particularly don't like entitled bastard losers.
I also think that tactical voting against the Tories will accelerate the losses they are going to make.
1997 may not be the low point for the Tories- this time I don't think that they can come back.
How popular? Who can say.0 -
How do they VONC themselves?!JBriskinindyref2 said:
As Gab2 states the government will VONC itself - Autumn General Election Nailed Onegg said:
Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too friteek said:
2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.JBriskinindyref2 said:
ICYMIGabs2 said:So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.
1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October
Then two likely results:
6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October
Or:
6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?
Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)
1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.
Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.0 -
These 2 Aussies are 100% nailed on to get centuries.... sure as sure can be. Yes sir.0
-
With the help of their majority of -40.Byronic said:
How do they VONC themselves?!JBriskinindyref2 said:
As Gab2 states the government will VONC itself - Autumn General Election Nailed Onegg said:
Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too friteek said:
2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.JBriskinindyref2 said:
ICYMIGabs2 said:So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.
1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October
Then two likely results:
6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October
Or:
6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?
Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)
1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.
Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.0 -
Spoiling my ballot is off the table. I will vote for SOMEONE.Gabs2 said:
Spoil your ballot with necessary crude language. Please don't vote for a man that commemorates Jew murderers. Your Jewish friends are not representative of the vast majority of Jews in this country, who are very scared at how much Corbyn will embolden anti-Semites and normalise such positions.Noo said:I've been thinking hard about yesterday's developments and the part the Labour Party has played in trying to prevent no deal. And for the first time in my life I'm coming around to the idea of voting for them.
I haven't yet made up my mind, and I think it's still less than 50% chance I'll vote for them. But it's always been 0% chance at every previous election, so something profound has changed for me.
No I don't really want Corbyn in be PM. Yes the antisemitism bothers me a great deal, but I'm taking my lead from two Jewish friends who don't think it's as bad as it's made out (one of them is in fact a Labour member, her husband is a now-homeless Conservative voter).
I am a floating voter, so I'm not nailing any colours to the mast, and a lot might change between now and polling day, whenever that may be. But part of my thinking is that I would like to give this Conservative government the kicking of a lifetime, and voting for Corbyn feels like *one* way of achieving that.
Happy to be persuaded out of this almost-certain folly. If anyone has a better idea of legally registering my disgust at this Boris Johnson government that does not involve voting for Corbyn's lot, I'm all ears.0 -
Boris's only achievement so far, he makes Theresa May look good! This article makes very valid points:
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/no-wonder-theresa-may-was-smiling-boris-johnsons-chaotic-brexit-means-nothing-has-changed/ar-AAGMTAm?ocid=spartanntp0 -
For your "a" route, there does need to be atleast a "working majority", even a majority of +15 could be close. Although the PM would be putting huge pressure on MPs by saying "the electorate has voted for no-deal" there will probably still be 5 or 10 Conservative MPs who think that no-deal is completely unacceptable, and the threat of losing their seat is weak when there is 5 and a half years until the next election, and you have just been reelected as a known Wet.Gabs2 said:So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.
1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October
Then two likely results:
6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October
Or:
6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?
For your "b" route it will be very dependent on the make-up of the hung parliament. But I think it will be very difficult to see a no-deal on 31st Oct if parliament is hung.
The important thing is to ensure that Mr Cummings cannot wheedle a no-deal through the back door by some cunning plan.0 -
Johnson loyalists + SNP gives the numbers if they want to pursue this route.Chris said:
With the help of their majority of -40.Byronic said:
How do they VONC themselves?!JBriskinindyref2 said:
As Gab2 states the government will VONC itself - Autumn General Election Nailed Onegg said:
Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too friteek said:
2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.JBriskinindyref2 said:
ICYMIGabs2 said:So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.
1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October
Then two likely results:
6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October
Or:
6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?
Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)
1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.
Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.0 -
Boris is playing to the gallery but I suspect as in 1997 a lot of former Tory voters won't be voting (or if they do vote voting for someone else).Gallowgate said:
I wish I agreed with you but I don’t. Boris is playing to the gallery and it will be popular.Cicero said:I think the past 24 hours have been utterly devastating for the Conservatives. Worse than Black Wednesday by a significant factor.
The optics are truly awful. Starting with Johnson's bullshit speech outside Number 10 being drowned out by booing. Losing a phlanx of the most solidly Tory MPs you could imagine through your own childish intransigence. The utterly bollocks "rowing back from austerity", Lee crossing the floor, the much bigger defeat than expected and the body language of Rees Mogg. 100,000 signing up to vote in 24 hours- the *same 24 hours* as the Tory government imploded.
This is the inflection point when the Tories can't get it back.
I think the polls will be increasingly terrifying for Johnson- no one likes losers, and they particularly don't like entitled bastard losers.
I also think that tactical voting against the Tories will accelerate the losses they are going to make.
1997 may not be the low point for the Tories- this time I don't think that they can come back.
How popular? Who can say.0 -
My brain hurts. Please elaborate. Doesn’t FTPA require 2/3 of the House? Or can the government just dissolve itself?Chris said:
With the help of their majority of -40.Byronic said:
How do they VONC themselves?!JBriskinindyref2 said:
As Gab2 states the government will VONC itself - Autumn General Election Nailed Onegg said:
Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too friteek said:
2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.JBriskinindyref2 said:
ICYMIGabs2 said:So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.
1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October
Then two likely results:
6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October
Or:
6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?
Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)
1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.
Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.0 -
Yeah - I'm not quite sure of that bit. But if VONC is called tory MPs could vote against government.Byronic said:
How do they VONC themselves?!JBriskinindyref2 said:
As Gab2 states the government will VONC itself - Autumn General Election Nailed Onegg said:
Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too friteek said:
2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.JBriskinindyref2 said:
ICYMIGabs2 said:So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.
1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October
Then two likely results:
6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October
Or:
6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?
Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)
1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.
Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.
Somethings got to give.0 -
I resigned from the party today but that does not mean I will enable Corbyn to take power and indeed Phil Hammond has just said that in the HOCCicero said:I think the past 24 hours have been utterly devastating for the Conservatives. Worse than Black Wednesday by a significant factor.
The optics are truly awful. Starting with Johnson's bullshit speech outside Number 10 being drowned out by booing. Losing a phlanx of the most solidly Tory MPs you could imagine through your own childish intransigence. The utterly bollocks "rowing back from austerity", Lee crossing the floor, the much bigger defeat than expected and the body language of Rees Mogg. 100,000 signing up to vote in 24 hours- the *same 24 hours* as the Tory government imploded.
This is the inflection point when the Tories can't get it back.
I think the polls will be increasingly terrifying for Johnson- no one likes losers, and they particularly don't like entitled bastard losers.
I also think that tactical voting against the Tories will accelerate the losses they are going to make.
1997 may not be the low point for the Tories- this time I don't think that they can come back.
I would caution assuming the polls are going to change against the government, they could but until a trend indicates so I am in the camp that it is wide open
0 -
I myself am Jewish and the reason my grandparents came to this country as refugees was because of anti Jewish pogroms in Russia and Ukraine.Gabs2 said:
Spoil your ballot with necessary crude language. Please don't vote for a man that commemorates Jew murderers. Your Jewish friends are not representative of the vast majority of Jews in this country, who are very scared at how much Corbyn will embolden anti-Semites and normalise such positions.Noo said:I've been thinking hard about yesterday's developments and the part the Labour Party has played in trying to prevent no deal. And for the first time in my life I'm coming around to the idea of voting for them.
I haven't yet made up my mind, and I think it's still less than 50% chance I'll vote for them. But it's always been 0% chance at every previous election, so something profound has changed for me.
No I don't really want Corbyn in be PM. Yes the antisemitism bothers me a great deal, but I'm taking my lead from two Jewish friends who don't think it's as bad as it's made out (one of them is in fact a Labour member, her husband is a now-homeless Conservative voter).
I am a floating voter, so I'm not nailing any colours to the mast, and a lot might change between now and polling day, whenever that may be. But part of my thinking is that I would like to give this Conservative government the kicking of a lifetime, and voting for Corbyn feels like *one* way of achieving that.
Happy to be persuaded out of this almost-certain folly. If anyone has a better idea of legally registering my disgust at this Boris Johnson government that does not involve voting for Corbyn's lot, I'm all ears.
I also really do not like Corbyn and would hate him to be our PM.
However, if it came to it, I would vote for my local Labour candidate (she is great) if it was needed in a polarizing election.
A culture war might require me to take a side.0 -
He is worse than Brown, possibly worse than May. There was me thinking: at least he can think on his feet. Now I am thinking that either I am entirely misremembering his performances on HIGNFY, or they were entirely scripted.Cicero said:I think the past 24 hours have been utterly devastating for the Conservatives. Worse than Black Wednesday by a significant factor.
The optics are truly awful. Starting with Johnson's bullshit speech outside Number 10 being drowned out by booing. Losing a phlanx of the most solidly Tory MPs you could imagine through your own childish intransigence. The utterly bollocks "rowing back from austerity", Lee crossing the floor, the much bigger defeat than expected and the body language of Rees Mogg. 100,000 signing up to vote in 24 hours- the *same 24 hours* as the Tory government imploded.
This is the inflection point when the Tories can't get it back.
I think the polls will be increasingly terrifying for Johnson- no one likes losers, and they particularly don't like entitled bastard losers.
I also think that tactical voting against the Tories will accelerate the losses they are going to make.
1997 may not be the low point for the Tories- this time I don't think that they can come back.0 -
It hasn’t got the numbers to commit suicide. This truly is in office but not in power.JBriskinindyref2 said:
As Gab2 states the government will VONC itself - Autumn General Election Nailed Onegg said:
Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too friteek said:
2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.JBriskinindyref2 said:
ICYMIGabs2 said:So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.
1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October
Then two likely results:
6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October
Or:
6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?
Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)
1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.
Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.0 -
The Tories scraped in at just over 30% of the vote even in 1997. They've been written off before, in error. You *might* be correct, but I'll believe it when I see it.Cicero said:I think the past 24 hours have been utterly devastating for the Conservatives. Worse than Black Wednesday by a significant factor.
The optics are truly awful. Starting with Johnson's bullshit speech outside Number 10 being drowned out by booing. Losing a phlanx of the most solidly Tory MPs you could imagine through your own childish intransigence. The utterly bollocks "rowing back from austerity", Lee crossing the floor, the much bigger defeat than expected and the body language of Rees Mogg. 100,000 signing up to vote in 24 hours- the *same 24 hours* as the Tory government imploded.
This is the inflection point when the Tories can't get it back.
I think the polls will be increasingly terrifying for Johnson- no one likes losers, and they particularly don't like entitled bastard losers.
I also think that tactical voting against the Tories will accelerate the losses they are going to make.
1997 may not be the low point for the Tories- this time I don't think that they can come back.
Besides, this is a potentially very complex election, in which four and possibly five parties could poll over 10% in England, as well as in Scotland and Wales. If the Tories manage to hold on to 30% of the vote then they could win an outright majority if it stacks up in the right places.
In short, nobody has the faintest idea of how this is all going to pan out.0 -
Robert Craig's lawyerly opinion seemed convincing to me, though I am also not a lawyer:RobD said:
You got me. I've not seen any official explanation yet. You could argue it infringes a little bit on the prerogative power to negotiation with other countries. But that'd be a weak case in my not-lawyer opinion.Chris said:
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/09/02/proponents-of-the-new-bill-to-stop-no-deal-face-a-significant-dilemma-over-queens-consent/
He is not convinced he was wrong:
https://twitter.com/RobertCraig3/status/11692617426413568000 -
That doesn't guarantee an election though does it.JBriskinindyref2 said:
As Gab2 states the government will VONC itself - Autumn General Election Nailed Onegg said:
Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too friteek said:
2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.JBriskinindyref2 said:
ICYMIGabs2 said:So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.
1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October
Then two likely results:
6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October
Or:
6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?
Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)
1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.
Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.0 -
Parliament is Samuel L Jackson? Who does Jihn Travolta get to play?
0 -
No, with a VONC a simple majority is required and then there's a 14 day period where no-one knows what happens. I'm not entirely sure who can call a VONC though, I think maybe just Corbyn.Byronic said:
My brain hurts. Please elaborate. Doesn’t FTPA require 2/3 of the House? Or can the government just dissolve itself?Chris said:
With the help of their majority of -40.Byronic said:
How do they VONC themselves?!JBriskinindyref2 said:
As Gab2 states the government will VONC itself - Autumn General Election Nailed Onegg said:
Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too friteek said:
2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.JBriskinindyref2 said:
ICYMIGabs2 said:So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.
1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October
Then two likely results:
6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October
Or:
6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?
Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)
1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.
Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.0 -
SNP can help kill it as they want a GE. But yes, on its own it doesn't have the numbers right nowegg said:
It hasn’t got the numbers to commit suicide. This truly is in office but not in power.JBriskinindyref2 said:
As Gab2 states the government will VONC itself - Autumn General Election Nailed Onegg said:
Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too friteek said:
2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.JBriskinindyref2 said:
ICYMIGabs2 said:So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.
1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October
Then two likely results:
6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October
Or:
6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?
Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)
1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.
Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced. 0 -
Comes back to what I've been saying for the last couple of days. If Johnson wants a shot at this election, he'll have to resign and do it as LOTO rather than PM.egg said:
It hasn’t got the numbers to commit suicide. This truly is in office but not in power.JBriskinindyref2 said:
As Gab2 states the government will VONC itself - Autumn General Election Nailed Onegg said:
Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too friteek said:
2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.JBriskinindyref2 said:
ICYMIGabs2 said:So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.
1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October
Then two likely results:
6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October
Or:
6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?
Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)
1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.
Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.0 -
I thought a government could only VoC itself.JBriskinindyref2 said:
As Gab2 states the government will VONC itself - Autumn General Election Nailed Onegg said:
Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too friteek said:
2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.JBriskinindyref2 said:
ICYMIGabs2 said:So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.
1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October
Then two likely results:
6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October
Or:
6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?
Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)
1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.
Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.0 -
We can see even on here the country is divided. It will be popular and cheered on by some and detested by others. Large parts of the country see the same events in completely opposite fashions, and get surprised when the others dont react in the same way.Cicero said:I think the past 24 hours have been utterly devastating for the Conservatives. Worse than Black Wednesday by a significant factor.
The optics are truly awful. Starting with Johnson's bullshit speech outside Number 10 being drowned out by booing. Losing a phlanx of the most solidly Tory MPs you could imagine through your own childish intransigence. The utterly bollocks "rowing back from austerity", Lee crossing the floor, the much bigger defeat than expected and the body language of Rees Mogg. 100,000 signing up to vote in 24 hours- the *same 24 hours* as the Tory government imploded.
This is the inflection point when the Tories can't get it back.
I think the polls will be increasingly terrifying for Johnson- no one likes losers, and they particularly don't like entitled bastard losers.
I also think that tactical voting against the Tories will accelerate the losses they are going to make.
1997 may not be the low point for the Tories- this time I don't think that they can come back.
It is hard to see why we won't end up with another hung parliament without a majority for anything, and politicians without even the slightest intention of either compromising or leading by trying to convince others rather than gaming the system.0 -
Good grief. I'm not going to be cowed into giving BoJo a majority by trolling from Russian bots.Gabs2 said:
Spoil your ballot with necessary crude language. Please don't vote for a man that commemorates Jew murderers. Your Jewish friends are not representative of the vast majority of Jews in this country, who are very scared at how much Corbyn will embolden anti-Semites and normalise such positions.Noo said:I've been thinking hard about yesterday's developments and the part the Labour Party has played in trying to prevent no deal. And for the first time in my life I'm coming around to the idea of voting for them.
I haven't yet made up my mind, and I think it's still less than 50% chance I'll vote for them. But it's always been 0% chance at every previous election, so something profound has changed for me.
No I don't really want Corbyn in be PM. Yes the antisemitism bothers me a great deal, but I'm taking my lead from two Jewish friends who don't think it's as bad as it's made out (one of them is in fact a Labour member, her husband is a now-homeless Conservative voter).
I am a floating voter, so I'm not nailing any colours to the mast, and a lot might change between now and polling day, whenever that may be. But part of my thinking is that I would like to give this Conservative government the kicking of a lifetime, and voting for Corbyn feels like *one* way of achieving that.
Happy to be persuaded out of this almost-certain folly. If anyone has a better idea of legally registering my disgust at this Boris Johnson government that does not involve voting for Corbyn's lot, I'm all ears.0 -
I don't think they'll get to an election through a VONC but rather from passing a one line bill stating that the election will be on "X" day.Gabs2 said:So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.
1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October
Then two likely results:
6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October
Or:
6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?
That only requires a majority of one.0 -
Voting Lib Dem would seem to solve your dilemma.Noo said:I've been thinking hard about yesterday's developments and the part the Labour Party has played in trying to prevent no deal. And for the first time in my life I'm coming around to the idea of voting for them.
I haven't yet made up my mind, and I think it's still less than 50% chance I'll vote for them. But it's always been 0% chance at every previous election, so something profound has changed for me.
No I don't really want Corbyn in be PM. Yes the antisemitism bothers me a great deal, but I'm taking my lead from two Jewish friends who don't think it's as bad as it's made out (one of them is in fact a Labour member, her husband is a now-homeless Conservative voter).
I am a floating voter, so I'm not nailing any colours to the mast, and a lot might change between now and polling day, whenever that may be. But part of my thinking is that I would like to give this Conservative government the kicking of a lifetime, and voting for Corbyn feels like *one* way of achieving that.
Happy to be persuaded out of this almost-certain folly. If anyone has a better idea of legally registering my disgust at this Boris Johnson government that does not involve voting for Corbyn's lot, I'm all ears.0 -
Boris tries to vonc himself. It’s pointed out in debate the possibly this could result in a PM Corbyn. Boris loses such vote by about 600JBriskinindyref2 said:
No, with a VONC a simple majority is required and then there's a 14 day period where no-one knows what happens. I'm not entirely sure who can call a VONC though, I think maybe just Corbyn.Byronic said:
My brain hurts. Please elaborate. Doesn’t FTPA require 2/3 of the House? Or can the government just dissolve itself?Chris said:
With the help of their majority of -40.Byronic said:
How do they VONC themselves?!JBriskinindyref2 said:
As Gab2 states the government will VONC itself - Autumn General Election Nailed Onegg said:
Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too friteek said:
2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.JBriskinindyref2 said:
ICYMIGabs2 said:So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.
1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October
Then two likely results:
6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October
Or:
6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?
Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)
1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.
Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.0 -
I was suggesting they might find it difficult to VONC themselves as they don't have a majority!Byronic said:
My brain hurts. Please elaborate. Doesn’t FTPA require 2/3 of the House? Or can the government just dissolve itself?Chris said:
With the help of their majority of -40.Byronic said:
How do they VONC themselves?!JBriskinindyref2 said:
As Gab2 states the government will VONC itself - Autumn General Election Nailed Onegg said:
Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too friteek said:
2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.JBriskinindyref2 said:
ICYMIGabs2 said:So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.
1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October
Then two likely results:
6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October
Or:
6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?
Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)
1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.
Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.
But in theory as well as the 2/3 option, there is the option of a VONC in the government, and an election will follow if there isn't a VOC within the following fortnight.0 -
How quickly could the FTPA be repealed?0
-
Err, it's a fluid situation (i.e I am at the limit of my knowledge)eristdoof said:
I thought a government could only VoC itself.JBriskinindyref2 said:
As Gab2 states the government will VONC itself - Autumn General Election Nailed Onegg said:
Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too friteek said:
2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.JBriskinindyref2 said:
ICYMIGabs2 said:So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.
1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October
Then two likely results:
6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October
Or:
6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?
Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)
1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.
Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.0 -
Sounds like you would recommend voting for another party then.Gallowgate said:
I myself am Jewish and the reason my grandparents came to this country as refugees was because of anti Jewish pogroms in Russia and Ukraine.Gabs2 said:
Spoil your ballot with necessary crude language. Please don't vote for a man that commemorates Jew murderers. Your Jewish friends are not representative of the vast majority of Jews in this country, who are very scared at how much Corbyn will embolden anti-Semites and normalise such positions.Noo said:I've been thinking hard about yesterday's developments and the part the Labour Party has played in trying to prevent no deal. And for the first time in my life I'm coming around to the idea of voting for them.
I haven't yet made up my mind, and I think it's still less than 50% chance I'll vote for them. But it's always been 0% chance at every previous election, so something profound has changed for me.
No I don't really want Corbyn in be PM. Yes the antisemitism bothers me a great deal, but I'm taking my lead from two Jewish friends who don't think it's as bad as it's made out (one of them is in fact a Labour member, her husband is a now-homeless Conservative voter).
I am a floating voter, so I'm not nailing any colours to the mast, and a lot might change between now and polling day, whenever that may be. But part of my thinking is that I would like to give this Conservative government the kicking of a lifetime, and voting for Corbyn feels like *one* way of achieving that.
Happy to be persuaded out of this almost-certain folly. If anyone has a better idea of legally registering my disgust at this Boris Johnson government that does not involve voting for Corbyn's lot, I'm all ears.
I also really do not like Corbyn and would hate him to be our PM.
However, if it came to it, I would vote for my local Labour candidate (she is great) if it was needed in a polarizing election.
A culture war might require me to take a side.
But what's the best way to kick the Tories in the coming election? That's as important to me as the policies of the party I will vote for. I'm really itching to maximise the force with which I say "no" to Boris. I don't feel like voting, say, Green is going to be felt as much.
I live in England, so there is no SNP/Plaid Cymru/Sinn Fein option open to me.0 -
So Corbyn would be a caretaker PM?Black_Rook said:
Comes back to what I've been saying for the last couple of days. If Johnson wants a shot at this election, he'll have to resign and do it as LOTO rather than PM.egg said:
It hasn’t got the numbers to commit suicide. This truly is in office but not in power.JBriskinindyref2 said:
As Gab2 states the government will VONC itself - Autumn General Election Nailed Onegg said:
Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too friteek said:
2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.JBriskinindyref2 said:
ICYMIGabs2 said:So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.
1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October
Then two likely results:
6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October
Or:
6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?
Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)
1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.
Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.
But if that happens Corbs would secure a 6 month extension and call a referendum. Which would change everything0 -
If you are culturally siding with the supporters of Hamas, the IRA and Black September, you are making a mistake.Gallowgate said:
I myself am Jewish and the reason my grandparents came to this country as refugees was because of anti Jewish pogroms in Russia and Ukraine.Gabs2 said:
Spoil your ballot with necessary crude language. Please don't vote for a man that commemorates Jew murderers. Your Jewish friends are not representative of the vast majority of Jews in this country, who are very scared at how much Corbyn will embolden anti-Semites and normalise such positions.Noo said:I've been thinking hard about yesterday's developments and the part the Labour Party has played in trying to prevent no deal. And for the first time in my life I'm coming around to the idea of voting for them.
I haven't yet made up my mind, and I think it's still less than 50% chance I'll vote for them. But it's always been 0% chance at every previous election, so something profound has changed for me.
No I don't really want Corbyn in be PM. Yes the antisemitism bothers me a great deal, but I'm taking my lead from two Jewish friends who don't think it's as bad as it's made out (one of them is in fact a Labour member, her husband is a now-homeless Conservative voter).
I am a floating voter, so I'm not nailing any colours to the mast, and a lot might change between now and polling day, whenever that may be. But part of my thinking is that I would like to give this Conservative government the kicking of a lifetime, and voting for Corbyn feels like *one* way of achieving that.
Happy to be persuaded out of this almost-certain folly. If anyone has a better idea of legally registering my disgust at this Boris Johnson government that does not involve voting for Corbyn's lot, I'm all ears.
I also really do not like Corbyn and would hate him to be our PM.
However, if it came to it, I would vote for my local Labour candidate (she is great) if it was needed in a polarizing election.
A culture war might require me to take a side.0 -
Contrary to popular belief, isn't the current farrago evidence that the Fixed Term Parliament Act is an improvement on the previous system? I say that because, under the old system, an unelected minority PM could have crashed us out in chaos, despite the will of parliament, by using his personal power to call a GE to get parliament out of the way over the critical date. With the Act in place, the opposition parties can ensure that the options are kept open until we've had a GE and any new government can then decide what to do.1
-
Why should it be? The executive does not like it... tough. It is not there for their convenienceAndyJS said:How quickly could the FTPA be repealed?
0 -
-
It totally depends on which constituency you are in. Who was the main challenger to the Tories in the Euros, the Locals and the last three GEs. Then decide.Noo said:
Spoiling my ballot is off the table. I will vote for SOMEONE.Gabs2 said:
Spoil your ballot with necessary crude language. Please don't vote for a man that commemorates Jew murderers. Your Jewish friends are not representative of the vast majority of Jews in this country, who are very scared at how much Corbyn will embolden anti-Semites and normalise such positions.Noo said:I've been thinking hard about yesterday's developments and the part the Labour Party has played in trying to prevent no deal. And for the first time in my life I'm coming around to the idea of voting for them.
I haven't yet made up my mind, and I think it's still less than 50% chance I'll vote for them. But it's always been 0% chance at every previous election, so something profound has changed for me.
No I don't really want Corbyn in be PM. Yes the antisemitism bothers me a great deal, but I'm taking my lead from two Jewish friends who don't think it's as bad as it's made out (one of them is in fact a Labour member, her husband is a now-homeless Conservative voter).
I am a floating voter, so I'm not nailing any colours to the mast, and a lot might change between now and polling day, whenever that may be. But part of my thinking is that I would like to give this Conservative government the kicking of a lifetime, and voting for Corbyn feels like *one* way of achieving that.
Happy to be persuaded out of this almost-certain folly. If anyone has a better idea of legally registering my disgust at this Boris Johnson government that does not involve voting for Corbyn's lot, I'm all ears.0 -
My MP is a filthy blairite lickspittle so my conscience is clear.Gabs2 said:
If you are culturally siding with the supporters of Hamas, the IRA and Black September, you are making a mistake.Gallowgate said:
I myself am Jewish and the reason my grandparents came to this country as refugees was because of anti Jewish pogroms in Russia and Ukraine.Gabs2 said:
Spoil your ballot with necessary crude language. Please don't vote for a man that commemorates Jew murderers. Your Jewish friends are not representative of the vast majority of Jews in this country, who are very scared at how much Corbyn will embolden anti-Semites and normalise such positions.Noo said:I've been thinking hard about yesterday's developments and the part the Labour Party has played in trying to prevent no deal. And for the first time in my life I'm coming around to the idea of voting for them.
I haven't yet made up my mind, and I think it's still less than 50% chance I'll vote for them. But it's always been 0% chance at every previous election, so something profound has changed for me.
No I don't really want Corbyn in be PM. Yes the antisemitism bothers me a great deal, but I'm taking my lead from two Jewish friends who don't think it's as bad as it's made out (one of them is in fact a Labour member, her husband is a now-homeless Conservative voter).
I am a floating voter, so I'm not nailing any colours to the mast, and a lot might change between now and polling day, whenever that may be. But part of my thinking is that I would like to give this Conservative government the kicking of a lifetime, and voting for Corbyn feels like *one* way of achieving that.
Happy to be persuaded out of this almost-certain folly. If anyone has a better idea of legally registering my disgust at this Boris Johnson government that does not involve voting for Corbyn's lot, I'm all ears.
I also really do not like Corbyn and would hate him to be our PM.
However, if it came to it, I would vote for my local Labour candidate (she is great) if it was needed in a polarizing election.
A culture war might require me to take a side.0 -
I doesn't matter who votes for or against the motion. It's just a vote of confidence/no confidence in the government.eristdoof said:
I thought a government could only VoC itself.JBriskinindyref2 said:
As Gab2 states the government will VONC itself - Autumn General Election Nailed Onegg said:
Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too friteek said:
2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.JBriskinindyref2 said:
ICYMIGabs2 said:So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.
1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October
Then two likely results:
6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October
Or:
6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?
Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)
1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.
Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.0 -
Why would Corbyn call a referendum? He has lost much of his middle class support already. A referendum would hurt him with his working class support.Byronic said:
So Corbyn would be a caretaker PM?Black_Rook said:
Comes back to what I've been saying for the last couple of days. If Johnson wants a shot at this election, he'll have to resign and do it as LOTO rather than PM.egg said:
It hasn’t got the numbers to commit suicide. This truly is in office but not in power.JBriskinindyref2 said:
As Gab2 states the government will VONC itself - Autumn General Election Nailed Onegg said:
Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too friteek said:
2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.JBriskinindyref2 said:
ICYMIGabs2 said:So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.
1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October
Then two likely results:
6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October
Or:
6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?
Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)
1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.
Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.
But if that happens Corbs would secure a 6 month extension and call a referendum. Which would change everything0 -
The 97 landslide was based on Labour stealing large numbers of voters directly from the Tories. The complicating factor this time around is, of course, that Corbyn ain't no Blair.eek said:
Boris is playing to the gallery but I suspect as in 1997 a lot of former Tory voters won't be voting (or if they do vote voting for someone else).Gallowgate said:
I wish I agreed with you but I don’t. Boris is playing to the gallery and it will be popular.Cicero said:I think the past 24 hours have been utterly devastating for the Conservatives. Worse than Black Wednesday by a significant factor.
The optics are truly awful. Starting with Johnson's bullshit speech outside Number 10 being drowned out by booing. Losing a phlanx of the most solidly Tory MPs you could imagine through your own childish intransigence. The utterly bollocks "rowing back from austerity", Lee crossing the floor, the much bigger defeat than expected and the body language of Rees Mogg. 100,000 signing up to vote in 24 hours- the *same 24 hours* as the Tory government imploded.
This is the inflection point when the Tories can't get it back.
I think the polls will be increasingly terrifying for Johnson- no one likes losers, and they particularly don't like entitled bastard losers.
I also think that tactical voting against the Tories will accelerate the losses they are going to make.
1997 may not be the low point for the Tories- this time I don't think that they can come back.
How popular? Who can say.
Can the Conservatives keep large numbers of older and wealthier voters on side simply because, regardless of how they feel about Brexit, they're terrified of a Corbyn Government? We just don't know.0 -
Who is your local MP and how has he/she done? Will he/she stand up for what they believe in or follow the herd? That should have a big impact when both main party leaderships are unpalatable.Noo said:I've been thinking hard about yesterday's developments and the part the Labour Party has played in trying to prevent no deal. And for the first time in my life I'm coming around to the idea of voting for them.
I haven't yet made up my mind, and I think it's still less than 50% chance I'll vote for them. But it's always been 0% chance at every previous election, so something profound has changed for me.
No I don't really want Corbyn in be PM. Yes the antisemitism bothers me a great deal, but I'm taking my lead from two Jewish friends who don't think it's as bad as it's made out (one of them is in fact a Labour member, her husband is a now-homeless Conservative voter).
I am a floating voter, so I'm not nailing any colours to the mast, and a lot might change between now and polling day, whenever that may be. But part of my thinking is that I would like to give this Conservative government the kicking of a lifetime, and voting for Corbyn feels like *one* way of achieving that.
Happy to be persuaded out of this almost-certain folly. If anyone has a better idea of legally registering my disgust at this Boris Johnson government that does not involve voting for Corbyn's lot, I'm all ears.0 -
Maybe in that one specific scenario it is an improvement, but forcing a government without a majority to limp along for months or years is in no-ones interest.Richard_Nabavi said:Contrary to popular belief, isn't the current farrago evidence that the Fixed Term Parliament Act is an improvement on the previous system? I say that because, under the old system, an unelected minority PM could have crashed us out in chaos, despite the will of parliament, by using his personal power to call a GE to get parliament out of the way over the critical date. With the Act in place, the opposition parties can ensure that the options are kept open until we've had a GE and any new government can then decide what to do.
0 -
Great minds think alike Mr Nabavi. I was just typing a less elegant version of the same thought.Richard_Nabavi said:Contrary to popular belief, isn't the current farrago evidence that the Fixed Term Parliament Act is an improvement on the previous system? I say that because, under the old system, an unelected minority PM could have crashed us out in chaos, despite the will of parliament, by using his personal power to call a GE to get parliament out of the way over the critical date. With the Act in place, the opposition parties can ensure that the options are kept open until we've had a GE and any new government can then decide what to do.
0 -
This is absurdly black-and-white. My wife is Jewish and says much the same as Gallowgate.Gabs2 said:
If you are culturally siding with the supporters of Hamas, the IRA and Black September, you are making a mistake.Gallowgate said:
I myself am Jewish and the reason my grandparents came to this country as refugees was because of anti Jewish pogroms in Russia and Ukraine.Gabs2 said:
Spoil your ballot with necessary crude language. Please don't vote for a man that commemorates Jew murderers. Your Jewish friends are not representative of the vast majority of Jews in this country, who are very scared at how much Corbyn will embolden anti-Semites and normalise such positions.Noo said:I've been thinking hard about yesterday's developments and the part the Labour Party has played in trying to prevent no deal. And for the first time in my life I'm coming around to the idea of voting for them.
I haven't yet made up my mind, and I think it's still less than 50% chance I'll vote for them. But it's always been 0% chance at every previous election, so something profound has changed for me.
No I don't really want Corbyn in be PM. Yes the antisemitism bothers me a great deal, but I'm taking my lead from two Jewish friends who don't think it's as bad as it's made out (one of them is in fact a Labour member, her husband is a now-homeless Conservative voter).
I am a floating voter, so I'm not nailing any colours to the mast, and a lot might change between now and polling day, whenever that may be. But part of my thinking is that I would like to give this Conservative government the kicking of a lifetime, and voting for Corbyn feels like *one* way of achieving that.
Happy to be persuaded out of this almost-certain folly. If anyone has a better idea of legally registering my disgust at this Boris Johnson government that does not involve voting for Corbyn's lot, I'm all ears.
I also really do not like Corbyn and would hate him to be our PM.
However, if it came to it, I would vote for my local Labour candidate (she is great) if it was needed in a polarizing election.
A culture war might require me to take a side.1 -
Haven’t you noticed, as soon as the brexit can is kicked down the road everything stops getting excited and starts treading water.Byronic said:
So Corbyn would be a caretaker PM?Black_Rook said:
Comes back to what I've been saying for the last couple of days. If Johnson wants a shot at this election, he'll have to resign and do it as LOTO rather than PM.egg said:
It hasn’t got the numbers to commit suicide. This truly is in office but not in power.JBriskinindyref2 said:
As Gab2 states the government will VONC itself - Autumn General Election Nailed Onegg said:
Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too friteek said:
2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.JBriskinindyref2 said:
ICYMIGabs2 said:So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.
1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October
Then two likely results:
6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October
Or:
6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?
Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)
1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.
Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.
But if that happens Corbs would secure a 6 month extension and call a referendum. Which would change everything0 -
But in practice that is extremely unlikely, because either it would lose a VONC or the opposition would happily support an election.RobD said:
Maybe in that one specific scenario it is an improvement, but forcing a government without a majority to limp along for months or years is in no-ones interest.Richard_Nabavi said:Contrary to popular belief, isn't the current farrago evidence that the Fixed Term Parliament Act is an improvement on the previous system? I say that because, under the old system, an unelected minority PM could have crashed us out in chaos, despite the will of parliament, by using his personal power to call a GE to get parliament out of the way over the critical date. With the Act in place, the opposition parties can ensure that the options are kept open until we've had a GE and any new government can then decide what to do.
0 -
Are you serious? Of course he’d call a referendum. He’s already promised one. He’d be lynched by his own party if he didn’t. It’s the one policy area where he’s HAD to surrender, despite his personal reluctanceGabs2 said:
Why would Corbyn call a referendum? He has lost much of his middle class support already. A referendum would hurt him with his working class support.Byronic said:
So Corbyn would be a caretaker PM?Black_Rook said:
Comes back to what I've been saying for the last couple of days. If Johnson wants a shot at this election, he'll have to resign and do it as LOTO rather than PM.egg said:
It hasn’t got the numbers to commit suicide. This truly is in office but not in power.JBriskinindyref2 said:
As Gab2 states the government will VONC itself - Autumn General Election Nailed Onegg said:
Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too friteek said:
2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.JBriskinindyref2 said:
ICYMIGabs2 said:So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.
1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October
Then two likely results:
6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October
Or:
6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?
Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)
1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.
Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.
But if that happens Corbs would secure a 6 month extension and call a referendum. Which would change everything0 -
Sometimes you need to see the wood for trees.WhisperingOracle said:
This is absurdly black-and-white. My wife is Jewish and says much the same as Gallowgate.Gabs2 said:
If you are culturally siding with the supporters of Hamas, the IRA and Black September, you are making a mistake.Gallowgate said:
I myself am Jewish and the reason my grandparents came to this country as refugees was because of anti Jewish pogroms in Russia and Ukraine.Gabs2 said:
Spoil your ballot with necessary crude language. Please don't vote for a man that commemorates Jew murderers. Your Jewish friends are not representative of the vast majority of Jews in this country, who are very scared at how much Corbyn will embolden anti-Semites and normalise such positions.Noo said:I've been thinking hard about yesterday's developments and the part the Labour Party has played in trying to prevent no deal. And for the first time in my life I'm coming around to the idea of voting for them.
I haven't yet made up my mind, and I think it's still less than 50% chance I'll vote for them. But it's always been 0% chance at every previous election, so something profound has changed for me.
No I don't really want Corbyn in be PM. Yes the antisemitism bothers me a great deal, but I'm taking my lead from two Jewish friends who don't think it's as bad as it's made out (one of them is in fact a Labour member, her husband is a now-homeless Conservative voter).
I am a floating voter, so I'm not nailing any colours to the mast, and a lot might change between now and polling day, whenever that may be. But part of my thinking is that I would like to give this Conservative government the kicking of a lifetime, and voting for Corbyn feels like *one* way of achieving that.
Happy to be persuaded out of this almost-certain folly. If anyone has a better idea of legally registering my disgust at this Boris Johnson government that does not involve voting for Corbyn's lot, I'm all ears.
I also really do not like Corbyn and would hate him to be our PM.
However, if it came to it, I would vote for my local Labour candidate (she is great) if it was needed in a polarizing election.
A culture war might require me to take a side.0 -
So thinking of the next two or three days only, correct me if I’m wrong but election wise it seems to look like this:
- Boris wants an election, and we can assume his 289 loyal MPs (and the DUP) would vote for it.
- Corbyn might want an election, but many of his backbenchers don’t. He seems to be saying yes, once the Queen signs the Act. Many of his backbenchers say not until after 31 Oct. They will abstain tonight be who knows about Fri/Mon.
- The SNP will vote for one once the Queen signs the Act. Presumably because they stand to gain massively.
- The LibDem position is unclear. The might be amenable as they stand to gain.
- Presumably most independents would be against both on the Brexit grounds and because they’d lose their seats. Woodcock and similar might vote for it as a way of binning Corbyn.
Is that about right? That being the case a 15 Oct election looks like a 60% chance because of Corbyn, the SNP, and the one clause Bill route. But who knows?0 -
See, that's my default at the moment. But a lot of Conservatives will be treating the Lib Dems as their lifeboat (that friend of mine I mentioned is leaning that way). So it feels like a Lib Dem vote will fulfil the requirement of /opposing/ Boris, but not the requirement to give him the electoral kicking he deserves.rkrkrk said:
Voting Lib Dem would seem to solve your dilemma.Noo said:I've been thinking hard about yesterday's developments and the part the Labour Party has played in trying to prevent no deal. And for the first time in my life I'm coming around to the idea of voting for them.
I haven't yet made up my mind, and I think it's still less than 50% chance I'll vote for them. But it's always been 0% chance at every previous election, so something profound has changed for me.
No I don't really want Corbyn in be PM. Yes the antisemitism bothers me a great deal, but I'm taking my lead from two Jewish friends who don't think it's as bad as it's made out (one of them is in fact a Labour member, her husband is a now-homeless Conservative voter).
I am a floating voter, so I'm not nailing any colours to the mast, and a lot might change between now and polling day, whenever that may be. But part of my thinking is that I would like to give this Conservative government the kicking of a lifetime, and voting for Corbyn feels like *one* way of achieving that.
Happy to be persuaded out of this almost-certain folly. If anyone has a better idea of legally registering my disgust at this Boris Johnson government that does not involve voting for Corbyn's lot, I'm all ears.1 -
Is the number dependent on the number of Conservative MPs with the whip?RobD said:
And the threshold just got lower....tpfkar said:Sixteenth like the letters in Graham Brady's safe?
I know he's stood down and it'll be someone else now, but for old times sake...
The rule is 15% of the Parliamentary Party.
15% of 22 is 3.3 so the number would be 3 letters fewer.0 -
I would rather vote Lib Dem but unfortunately we don’t have proportional representation.Gabs2 said:
Sometimes you need to see the wood for trees.WhisperingOracle said:
This is absurdly black-and-white. My wife is Jewish and says much the same as Gallowgate.Gabs2 said:
If you are culturally siding with the supporters of Hamas, the IRA and Black September, you are making a mistake.Gallowgate said:
I myself am Jewish and the reason my grandparents came to this country as refugees was because of anti Jewish pogroms in Russia and Ukraine.Gabs2 said:
Spoil your ballot with necessary crude language. Please don't vote for a man that commemorates Jew murderers. Your Jewish friends are not representative of the vast majority of Jews in this country, who are very scared at how much Corbyn will embolden anti-Semites and normalise such positions.Noo said:I've been thinking hard about yesterday's developments and the part the Labour Party has played in trying to prevent no deal. And for the first time in my life I'm coming around to the idea of voting for them.
I haven't yet made up my mind, and I think it's still less than 50% chance I'll vote for them. But it's always been 0% chance at every previous election, so something profound has changed for me.
No I don't really want Corbyn in be PM. Yes the antisemitism bothers me a great deal, but I'm taking my lead from two Jewish friends who don't think it's as bad as it's made out (one of them is in fact a Labour member, her husband is a now-homeless Conservative voter).
I am a floating voter, so I'm not nailing any colours to the mast, and a lot might change between now and polling day, whenever that may be. But part of my thinking is that I would like to give this Conservative government the kicking of a lifetime, and voting for Corbyn feels like *one* way of achieving that.
Happy to be persuaded out of this almost-certain folly. If anyone has a better idea of legally registering my disgust at this Boris Johnson government that does not involve voting for Corbyn's lot, I'm all ears.
I also really do not like Corbyn and would hate him to be our PM.
However, if it came to it, I would vote for my local Labour candidate (she is great) if it was needed in a polarizing election.
A culture war might require me to take a side.
I will see where the wind is blowing and decide the best way to use my vote.
It’s all academic anyway as I live in a safe Labour seat.0 -
Maybe the way to think of it is that Boris decides this job involves doing some hard work, hadn't realised that, and has had quite enough. So he goes to the palace to resign. QEII asks him to nominate a successor holding the confidence of the house - what does he say?egg said:
It hasn’t got the numbers to commit suicide. This truly is in office but not in power.JBriskinindyref2 said:
As Gab2 states the government will VONC itself - Autumn General Election Nailed Onegg said:
Frit? Despicable cowards? Or sensible self interest that you would do yourself? No GE till May or June now I reckon.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Beth backtracking a bit now - says Labour MPs might not be too friteek said:
2 - fails because the opposition don't trust Boris so they want 1 finalised first.JBriskinindyref2 said:
ICYMIGabs2 said:So this is my understanding of what happens next. I would appreciate comments because I am still very confused.
1) Extension bill passes the Commons today
2) Government delays it in the Lords as much as they can
3) Bill passes Lords
4) VONC held, government 'loses'
5) Election held mid-October
Then two likely results:
6a) Govt wins a majority on No Deal platform
7a) Extension bill repealed
8a) EU decides to compromise or not, but probably not
9a) We leave the EU end of October
Or:
6b) Another hung parliament
7b) PM forced to extend
8b) Boris presumably resigns
9b) Corbyn tries to form a government, fails
10b) Someone else tries and Corbyn gives in
11b) We extend for six months
12b) Corbyn VONCs GONAFAE
13b) No one can form a government
14b) New election?
Here's what's happening today (h/t Beth Rigby)
1. Anti-No Deal bill - passes
2. Boris motions for a GE - Fails cus Labour too frit.
3. Err, that's it.
Once finalised Corbyn will say now about that election but Boris will have Prorogued Parliament before a second motion can be introduced.
0 -
0
