politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » By George! Will BJ flop or will he last a long time?

SouthamObserver said:

What's an MRP poll?
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1168546988205518850

It is what we were talking about earlier. It doesn't help the Conservatives if big numbers of Labour voters switch to the Lib Dems in Conservative held seats. In fact it may help the Lib Dems win the seat. They need those voters to switch in Labour held seats. Given those voters are highly Remainery it's by no means a given they will do so.

Explanation of the technique here. My simplistic understanding is you poll the demographics, work out how many of each democraphic are in each constituency and then after adjustments for national trends work out the probable votes in each constituency. To some extent each constituency gets a mini poll but you smooth out the big variance caused by tiny subsamples by aggregating constituencies and demographics of a similar type


https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/05/31/how-yougov-model-2017-general-election-works

DeClare said:

SouthamObserver said:

https://twitter.com/hilarybennmp/status/1168560598650621953

His old Dad must be spinning in his grave.

That's very unlikely:

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/i-asked-tony-benn-what-he-thought-of-his-sons-vote-on-iraq-and-learned-never-to-go-there-again-a6761006.html

Beibheirli_C said:

Cyclefree said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Cyclefree said:

Chris said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Chris said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1168552339071995904?s=20

Amazing that people are such absolute sheep. I don't have a mobile phone, but if I did, and someone told me I wouldn't be allowed to attend a social event without handing it over, I should find something else to do very quickly. Pitiful.

Anyone who does that may run afoul of the new Cumming Directive and be deselected

No doubt. Sheep.

It is so so easy to get round that. Unbelievably easy.

Yes. Just tweet it as you leave the building after they hand the phone back to you.

Duh!

Or be a bit cannier and spend a lot of time in the ladies touching up your lipstick.

I am assuming that you get your bag emptied on the door. I suppose you could slip a tiny one on the makeup bag, but I am sure they have x-ray machines for security scanning... *BEEP!*

No... I would just make notes of the salient points and be tweeting them before the car was out of Downing St.

Bags get scanned. Unless they have airport-style scanners, the rest of you not so much.

But yes a good memory and a notepad work just as well.

Shame neither of us are likely to be invited!

Anyway the important thing now is to work out which of Mrs May’s speeches Boris is going to be copying at 6 pm.

Cyclefree said:

Anyway the important thing now is to work out which of Mrs May’s speeches Boris is going to be copying at 6 pm.

Crush the saboteurs.

Disgraceful surrender.

https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1168564645197680641

AndyJS said:

Alistair said:

Feel's a lot like Alastair's mate Paul Masterton is lining up to dutifully vote for Hard Brexit when the time comes.

I thought he was an arch-Remainer.

Whilst a Remainer, he's spent a lot of time criticising arch Remainers.

He voted for the WA and against any anti-Brexit type motions/bills/indocitive options.

Fairly certain now given his tweeting he's tow the party line come the crunch.

This hasn't been a very good day for Boris Johnson.

OllyT said:

Gabs2 said:

Chris said:

viewcode said:

Chris said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Gallowgate said:

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1168541967556468736?s=21

Nigel might have played a blinder here. Boris is now surely completely cornered and has to go with full-on No Deal. That might buy him some short-term reprieve, but the long-term prospects will be ghastly.

It's crazy to assume that embracing No Deal will win him the election.

Because, of course, everything's been really sane so far.

Don't get me wrong. Nobody knows what will happen.

But embracing No Deal is as high-risk a strategy as anyone can imagine.

It could lead to complete disaster.

He does not need to embrace No Deal. He just needs to rule out the backstop. Then he gets BXP support through an election. Post-election he can figure out some wheeze with the EU that rules out a backstop and replaces it with a "totally not the backstop" alternative. Farage can cry, but what else can he do at that point?

Do you think that Farage may have figured out that little ruse himself? Nobody is going to trust the word of someone with Johnson's track record.

Farage has said he would only stand down if Bojo commits to no deal, not just removing backstop. The backstop was nothing but a convenient fig leaf to rage at.

RobD said:

KentRising said:

Disgraceful surrender.

https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1168564645197680641

So they could set it at some absurd date like 3019 and he'd have to accept? What a joke.

Spineless, spineless surrender.

Paristonda said:

OllyT said:

Gabs2 said:

Chris said:

viewcode said:

Chris said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Gallowgate said:

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1168541967556468736?s=21

Nigel might have played a blinder here. Boris is now surely completely cornered and has to go with full-on No Deal. That might buy him some short-term reprieve, but the long-term prospects will be ghastly.

It's crazy to assume that embracing No Deal will win him the election.

Because, of course, everything's been really sane so far.

Don't get me wrong. Nobody knows what will happen.

But embracing No Deal is as high-risk a strategy as anyone can imagine.

It could lead to complete disaster.

He does not need to embrace No Deal. He just needs to rule out the backstop. Then he gets BXP support through an election. Post-election he can figure out some wheeze with the EU that rules out a backstop and replaces it with a "totally not the backstop" alternative. Farage can cry, but what else can he do at that point?

Do you think that Farage may have figured out that little ruse himself? Nobody is going to trust the word of someone with Johnson's track record.

Farage has said he would only stand down if Bojo commits to no deal, not just removing backstop. The backstop was nothing but a convenient fig leaf to rage at.

And could well doom Brexit by therefore undercutting Boris. Hilarious

GIN1138 said:

MarqueeMark said:

AndyJS said:

Martin Baxter has just updated his polling average and seats forecast.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Con 356, Lab 188, LD 34, SNP 50.

That'll do!

Con 62 Seat Majority (biggest Con majority since 1987) - that would get the job done.

And there you have it.

For all the negative thread headers we've had on BoJo destroying the Conservative Party, etc, it's worth remembering that in the last days of Theresa May Electoral Calculus had a Con/BXP coalition as most likely outcome. Quite possibly with BXP as the senior partner if the trend continued.

Not only has Boris saved the Tories, if as rcs1000 says his plan all along has been to seek a majority then pass something that looks like the WA+lipstick, Boris will have actually saved us from a hard brexit - which would've been a certainty in a BXP/Con coalition.

noneoftheabove said:

KentRising said:

Disgraceful surrender.

https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1168564645197680641

Yes a disgraceful surrender from Boris. He should have manned up, made his case in parliament and the EU rather than wait for others to arrange an extension for him.

You can't wriggle out of this one. Remainers are showing what a nation-hating, spineless bunch of wankers they really are on this one. Overplayed their hand big time.

kyf_100 said:

GIN1138 said:

MarqueeMark said:

AndyJS said:

Martin Baxter has just updated his polling average and seats forecast.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Con 356, Lab 188, LD 34, SNP 50.

That'll do!

Con 62 Seat Majority (biggest Con majority since 1987) - that would get the job done.

And there you have it.

For all the negative thread headers we've had on BoJo destroying the Conservative Party, etc, it's worth remembering that in the last days of Theresa May Electoral Calculus had a Con/BXP coalition as most likely outcome. Quite possibly with BXP as the senior partner if the trend continued.

Not only has Boris saved the Tories, if as rcs1000 says his plan all along has been to seek a majority then pass something that looks like the WA+lipstick, Boris will have actually saved us from a hard brexit - which would've been a certainty in a BXP/Con coalition.

If he does that I'll thank him...although BXP would not have arisen as so potent a force had Boris and co not spent a year pissing on a deal that they then accepted was Brexit after all. Even a majority of the ERG did.

RobD said:

KentRising said:

Disgraceful surrender.

https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1168564645197680641

So they could set it at some absurd date like 3019 and he'd have to accept? What a joke.

By the way if you bother to read the full draft, if the EU suggest a later date, parliament is reserving the right to reject it, but not giving the executive that power.

noneoftheabove said:

RobD said:

KentRising said:

Disgraceful surrender.

https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1168564645197680641

So they could set it at some absurd date like 3019 and he'd have to accept? What a joke.

By the way if you bother to read the full draft, if the EU suggest a later date, parliament is reserving the right to reject it, but not giving the executive that power.

BUT EVERYONE KNOWS THEY WON'T REJECT IT.

Treasonous.

noneoftheabove said:

RobD said:

KentRising said:

Disgraceful surrender.

https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1168564645197680641

So they could set it at some absurd date like 3019 and he'd have to accept? What a joke.

By the way if you bother to read the full draft, if the EU suggest a later date, parliament is reserving the right to reject it, but not giving the executive that power.

As if the Commons would reject an extension to 3019.

DeClare said:

SouthamObserver said:

https://twitter.com/hilarybennmp/status/1168560598650621953

His old Dad must be spinning in his grave.

His dad was another person deluded by extreme leftie ideology.

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1168568614565351428 no crest for the wicked.

Mysticrose said:

This hasn't been a very good day for Boris Johnson.

Corbyn has been dancing to Johnson's tune today.

Byronic said:

GIN1138 said:

KentRising said:

Disgraceful surrender.

https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1168564645197680641

The government can't accept that. Forces a general election surely?

Yes. What a ludicrous letter. Could any patriot agree to that??? Stupid and counter productive

Oh God. This guy speaks for all "patriots" now.

What next? The Un-British Activities Committee?

KentRising said:

noneoftheabove said:

KentRising said:

Disgraceful surrender.

https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1168564645197680641

Yes a disgraceful surrender from Boris. He should have manned up, made his case in parliament and the EU rather than wait for others to arrange an extension for him.

You can't wriggle out of this one. Remainers are showing what a nation-hating, spineless bunch of wankers they really are on this one. Overplayed their hand big time.

Have you been on the sauce?

The Great Crested Tit yet to be spotted

TheScreamingEagles said:

Calm down everybody

https://twitter.com/hilarybennmp/status/1168561805855219718

But the Remain/Anti No Deal majority in parliament will not reject an extension of any length will they?

Alanbrooke said:

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/KieranPAndrews/status/1168567197708500992

I do have to question the judgement of the judiciary in getting involved in this, we;ll end uo with elected judges

The law officers aren't members of the judiciary. Idiot.

Alanbrooke said:

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/KieranPAndrews/status/1168567197708500992

I do have to question the judgement of the judiciary in getting involved in this, we;ll end uo with elected judges

Why not question the judgement of the PM for putting judges in the shit position of having to make a divisive and unnecessary ruling?

noneoftheabove said:

I am happy (well at least content) to Brexit with virtually any WA, or hold a 2nd referendum. Why cant Brexiteers find one version that can get majority support in either parliament or the commons?

Unfortunately, it doesn't exist. At min 30ish spartans and Labour (under Corbyn at least) will vote against any WA at all, regardless of what form it takes.

I'm battered.

British politics: guaranteed never to be boring since the 2014 Scottish referendum.

Byronic said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Calm down everybody

https://twitter.com/hilarybennmp/status/1168561805855219718

It hands us over, bound hand and foot, to the EU. To toy with at their pleasure.

It’s unbelievable. Hey, Britain, Have ten years or No Deal. Absolutely fucking shameful.

What on earth is in it for the EU to be unreasonable and want to make it 10 years? We are very likely to have a GE, any party getting a majority can still do whatever it wants regardless of what happens now.

Byronic said:

No political event in my life has shocked me like this. It makes the prorogue look utterly trivial. Deleted deleted deleted

No deal would be the most shocking political event of my life. And it seems many others feel the same way.

To be clear, I would support any Brexit "deal" first.

KentRising said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Byronic said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Calm down everybody

https://twitter.com/hilarybennmp/status/1168561805855219718

It hands us over, bound hand and foot, to the EU. To toy with at their pleasure.

It’s unbelievable. Hey, Britain, Have ten years or No Deal. Absolutely fucking shameful.

Either you want Parliamentary sovereignty or you do not.

If Parlaiment, and not the Government, runs the country, nothing will ever get done. Anarchy.

You do understand how laws are made in this country? It generally involves the consent of Parliament.

I think Johnson is going to announce...another Referendum!

Here we go

Andrew said:

noneoftheabove said:

I am happy (well at least content) to Brexit with virtually any WA, or hold a 2nd referendum. Why cant Brexiteers find one version that can get majority support in either parliament or the commons?

Unfortunately, it doesn't exist. At min 30ish spartans and Labour (under Corbyn at least) will vote against any WA at all, regardless of what form it takes.

Yes but all the Brexiteers need to do is compromise a bit and they can pass brexit either thru parliament or a 2nd ref. They cant even agree amongst themselves.

noneoftheabove said:

Alanbrooke said:

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/KieranPAndrews/status/1168567197708500992

I do have to question the judgement of the judiciary in getting involved in this, we;ll end uo with elected judges

Why not question the judgement of the PM for putting judges in the shit position of having to make a divisive and unnecessary ruling?

Yes I could question that, equally I could question the wisdom of the Speaker tearing up the rules. Neither side is exercising any judgement so we are simply in a political cage fight, The rules are there are no rules,

budget on Wednesday?

TheScreamingEagles said:

KentRising said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Byronic said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Calm down everybody

https://twitter.com/hilarybennmp/status/1168561805855219718

It hands us over, bound hand and foot, to the EU. To toy with at their pleasure.

It’s unbelievable. Hey, Britain, Have ten years or No Deal. Absolutely fucking shameful.

Either you want Parliamentary sovereignty or you do not.

If Parlaiment, and not the Government, runs the country, nothing will ever get done. Anarchy.

You do understand how laws are made in this country? It generally involves the consent of Parliament.

Why, oh why, did no one tell them?

Slackbladder said:

budget on Wednesday?

No, spending announcement.

Nothing has changed??

TheScreamingEagles said:

Slackbladder said:

budget on Wednesday?

No, spending announcement.

Potatoe, Potato

Noo said:

Byronic said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Byronic said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Calm down everybody

https://twitter.com/hilarybennmp/status/1168561805855219718

It hands us over, bound hand and foot, to the EU. To toy with at their pleasure.

It’s unbelievable. Hey, Britain, Have ten years or No Deal. Absolutely fucking shameful.

Either you want Parliamentary sovereignty or you do not.

The word traitor is much overused. Especially in Brexit. But that vile document deserves the word. It is the only word. They are traitors.

Taking power from the executive and vesting it in parliament is by no definition treachery.

It is when the bulk of that Parliament is in thrall to Brussels.

Boris is a pound shop Theresa May.

Byronic said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Byronic said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Calm down everybody

https://twitter.com/hilarybennmp/status/1168561805855219718

It hands us over, bound hand and foot, to the EU. To toy with at their pleasure.

It’s unbelievable. Hey, Britain, Have ten years or No Deal. Absolutely fucking shameful.

Either you want Parliamentary sovereignty or you do not.

The word traitor is much overused. Especially in Brexit. But that vile document deserves the word. It is the only word. They are traitors.

We should not call people traitors. But it feels like Remainers have overreached with this bill. It would go down very badly with the electorate I suspect. I can not see Corbyn accepting it.

Ah... it is not an announcement.

He is pleading. Please do not vote against me...

This is Theresa May-level pointless.

Slackbladder said:

Nothing has changed??

Nothing has changed.