It is what we were talking about earlier. It doesn't help the Conservatives if big numbers of Labour voters switch to the Lib Dems in Conservative held seats. In fact it may help the Lib Dems win the seat. They need those voters to switch in Labour held seats. Given those voters are highly Remainery it's by no means a given they will do so.
Explanation of the technique here. My simplistic understanding is you poll the demographics, work out how many of each democraphic are in each constituency and then after adjustments for national trends work out the probable votes in each constituency. To some extent each constituency gets a mini poll but you smooth out the big variance caused by tiny subsamples by aggregating constituencies and demographics of a similar type
I hope this isn't going to be a damp squib. 'I urge all members of the House to come together. In the meantime the government will continue its work to make a better Britain for all.'
It'll be a bad omen if he does a Theresa and starts making "Nothing. Has. Changed. addresses to the nation every five minutes.
When a PM makes a national statement it's important they have something of substance to say, otherwise its better not to say anything...
Amazing that people are such absolute sheep. I don't have a mobile phone, but if I did, and someone told me I wouldn't be allowed to attend a social event without handing it over, I should find something else to do very quickly. Pitiful.
Anyone who does that may run afoul of the new Cumming Directive and be deselected
No doubt. Sheep.
It is so so easy to get round that. Unbelievably easy.
Yes. Just tweet it as you leave the building after they hand the phone back to you.
Duh!
Or be a bit cannier and spend a lot of time in the ladies touching up your lipstick.
I am assuming that you get your bag emptied on the door. I suppose you could slip a tiny one on the makeup bag, but I am sure they have x-ray machines for security scanning... *BEEP!*
No... I would just make notes of the salient points and be tweeting them before the car was out of Downing St.
Bags get scanned. Unless they have airport-style scanners, the rest of you not so much.
But yes a good memory and a notepad work just as well.
Nigel might have played a blinder here. Boris is now surely completely cornered and has to go with full-on No Deal. That might buy him some short-term reprieve, but the long-term prospects will be ghastly.
It's crazy to assume that embracing No Deal will win him the election.
Because, of course, everything's been really sane so far.
Don't get me wrong. Nobody knows what will happen.
But embracing No Deal is as high-risk a strategy as anyone can imagine.
It could lead to complete disaster.
He does not need to embrace No Deal. He just needs to rule out the backstop. Then he gets BXP support through an election. Post-election he can figure out some wheeze with the EU that rules out a backstop and replaces it with a "totally not the backstop" alternative. Farage can cry, but what else can he do at that point?
Do you think that Farage may have figured out that little ruse himself? Nobody is going to trust the word of someone with Johnson's track record.
Nigel might have played a blinder here. Boris is now surely completely cornered and has to go with full-on No Deal. That might buy him some short-term reprieve, but the long-term prospects will be ghastly.
It's crazy to assume that embracing No Deal will win him the election.
Because, of course, everything's been really sane so far.
Don't get me wrong. Nobody knows what will happen.
But embracing No Deal is as high-risk a strategy as anyone can imagine.
It could lead to complete disaster.
He does not need to embrace No Deal. He just needs to rule out the backstop. Then he gets BXP support through an election. Post-election he can figure out some wheeze with the EU that rules out a backstop and replaces it with a "totally not the backstop" alternative. Farage can cry, but what else can he do at that point?
Do you think that Farage may have figured out that little ruse himself? Nobody is going to trust the word of someone with Johnson's track record.
Farage has said he would only stand down if Bojo commits to no deal, not just removing backstop. The backstop was nothing but a convenient fig leaf to rage at.
Opens the possibility of the EC offering a 3 year extension which we can't refuse. You couldn't blame them, we're being quite a pita with all these short extensions.
Yes a disgraceful surrender from Boris. He should have manned up, made his case in parliament and the EU rather than wait for others to arrange an extension for him.
Nigel might have played a blinder here. Boris is now surely completely cornered and has to go with full-on No Deal. That might buy him some short-term reprieve, but the long-term prospects will be ghastly.
It's crazy to assume that embracing No Deal will win him the election.
Because, of course, everything's been really sane so far.
Don't get me wrong. Nobody knows what will happen.
But embracing No Deal is as high-risk a strategy as anyone can imagine.
It could lead to complete disaster.
He does not need to embrace No Deal. He just needs to rule out the backstop. Then he gets BXP support through an election. Post-election he can figure out some wheeze with the EU that rules out a backstop and replaces it with a "totally not the backstop" alternative. Farage can cry, but what else can he do at that point?
Do you think that Farage may have figured out that little ruse himself? Nobody is going to trust the word of someone with Johnson's track record.
Farage has said he would only stand down if Bojo commits to no deal, not just removing backstop. The backstop was nothing but a convenient fig leaf to rage at.
And could well doom Brexit by therefore undercutting Boris. Hilarious
Con 62 Seat Majority (biggest Con majority since 1987) - that would get the job done.
And there you have it.
For all the negative thread headers we've had on BoJo destroying the Conservative Party, etc, it's worth remembering that in the last days of Theresa May Electoral Calculus had a Con/BXP coalition as most likely outcome. Quite possibly with BXP as the senior partner if the trend continued.
Not only has Boris saved the Tories, if as rcs1000 says his plan all along has been to seek a majority then pass something that looks like the WA+lipstick, Boris will have actually saved us from a hard brexit - which would've been a certainty in a BXP/Con coalition.
Yes a disgraceful surrender from Boris. He should have manned up, made his case in parliament and the EU rather than wait for others to arrange an extension for him.
You can't wriggle out of this one. Remainers are showing what a nation-hating, spineless bunch of wankers they really are on this one. Overplayed their hand big time.
Con 62 Seat Majority (biggest Con majority since 1987) - that would get the job done.
And there you have it.
For all the negative thread headers we've had on BoJo destroying the Conservative Party, etc, it's worth remembering that in the last days of Theresa May Electoral Calculus had a Con/BXP coalition as most likely outcome. Quite possibly with BXP as the senior partner if the trend continued.
Not only has Boris saved the Tories, if as rcs1000 says his plan all along has been to seek a majority then pass something that looks like the WA+lipstick, Boris will have actually saved us from a hard brexit - which would've been a certainty in a BXP/Con coalition.
If he does that I'll thank him...although BXP would not have arisen as so potent a force had Boris and co not spent a year pissing on a deal that they then accepted was Brexit after all. Even a majority of the ERG did.
So they could set it at some absurd date like 3019 and he'd have to accept? What a joke.
By the way if you bother to read the full draft, if the EU suggest a later date, parliament is reserving the right to reject it, but not giving the executive that power.
So they could set it at some absurd date like 3019 and he'd have to accept? What a joke.
By the way if you bother to read the full draft, if the EU suggest a later date, parliament is reserving the right to reject it, but not giving the executive that power.
So they could set it at some absurd date like 3019 and he'd have to accept? What a joke.
By the way if you bother to read the full draft, if the EU suggest a later date, parliament is reserving the right to reject it, but not giving the executive that power.
As if the Commons would reject an extension to 3019.
Yes a disgraceful surrender from Boris. He should have manned up, made his case in parliament and the EU rather than wait for others to arrange an extension for him.
You can't wriggle out of this one. Remainers are showing what a nation-hating, spineless bunch of wankers they really are on this one. Overplayed their hand big time.
I am happy (well at least content) to Brexit with virtually any WA, or hold a 2nd referendum. Why cant Brexiteers find one version that can get majority support in either parliament or the commons?
Yes a disgraceful surrender from Boris. He should have manned up, made his case in parliament and the EU rather than wait for others to arrange an extension for him.
You can't wriggle out of this one. Remainers are showing what a nation-hating, spineless bunch of wankers they really are on this one. Overplayed their hand big time.
So they could set it at some absurd date like 3019 and he'd have to accept? What a joke.
By the way if you bother to read the full draft, if the EU suggest a later date, parliament is reserving the right to reject it, but not giving the executive that power.
BUT EVERYONE KNOWS THEY WON'T REJECT IT.
Treasonous.
WRITING IN CAPITAL LETTERS DOES NOT MAKE SOMETHING TRUE!
Yes a disgraceful surrender from Boris. He should have manned up, made his case in parliament and the EU rather than wait for others to arrange an extension for him.
You can't wriggle out of this one. Remainers are showing what a nation-hating, spineless bunch of wankers they really are on this one. Overplayed their hand big time.
I am happy (well at least content) to Brexit with virtually any WA, or hold a 2nd referendum. Why cant Brexiteers find one version that can get majority support in either parliament or the commons?
I am happy (well at least content) to Brexit with virtually any WA, or hold a 2nd referendum. Why cant Brexiteers find one version that can get majority support in either parliament or the commons?
Unfortunately, it doesn't exist. At min 30ish spartans and Labour (under Corbyn at least) will vote against any WA at all, regardless of what form it takes.
Yes a disgraceful surrender from Boris. He should have manned up, made his case in parliament and the EU rather than wait for others to arrange an extension for him.
You can't wriggle out of this one. Remainers are showing what a nation-hating, spineless bunch of wankers they really are on this one. Overplayed their hand big time.
I am happy (well at least content) to Brexit with virtually any WA, or hold a 2nd referendum. Why cant Brexiteers find one version that can get majority support in either parliament or the commons?
They can, the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop (also supported by 52% of voters with Survation at the weekend) and which got a Commons majority via the Brady amendment and which Boris is aiming for
It hands us over, bound hand and foot, to the EU. To toy with at their pleasure.
It’s unbelievable. Hey, Britain, Have ten years or No Deal. Absolutely fucking shameful.
What on earth is in it for the EU to be unreasonable and want to make it 10 years? We are very likely to have a GE, any party getting a majority can still do whatever it wants regardless of what happens now.
Yes a disgraceful surrender from Boris. He should have manned up, made his case in parliament and the EU rather than wait for others to arrange an extension for him.
You can't wriggle out of this one. Remainers are showing what a nation-hating, spineless bunch of wankers they really are on this one. Overplayed their hand big time.
I am happy (well at least content) to Brexit with virtually any WA, or hold a 2nd referendum. Why cant Brexiteers find one version that can get majority support in either parliament or the commons?
They can, the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop (also supported by 52% of voters with Survation at the weekend) and which got a Commons majority via the Brady amendment and which Boris is aiming for
It hands us over, bound hand and foot, to the EU. To toy with at their pleasure.
It’s unbelievable. Hey, Britain, Have ten years or No Deal. Absolutely fucking shameful.
Well, since Brexit has shown our once-great country to be a basketcase, with politicians who are frankly incompetent, perhaps we need adults to hold the reins for a while..
And the Brexiteers are responsible for this! How delightful!
I am happy (well at least content) to Brexit with virtually any WA, or hold a 2nd referendum. Why cant Brexiteers find one version that can get majority support in either parliament or the commons?
Unfortunately, it doesn't exist. At min 30ish spartans and Labour (under Corbyn at least) will vote against any WA at all, regardless of what form it takes.
Yes but all the Brexiteers need to do is compromise a bit and they can pass brexit either thru parliament or a 2nd ref. They cant even agree amongst themselves.
I do have to question the judgement of the judiciary in getting involved in this, we;ll end uo with elected judges
Why not question the judgement of the PM for putting judges in the shit position of having to make a divisive and unnecessary ruling?
Yes I could question that, equally I could question the wisdom of the Speaker tearing up the rules. Neither side is exercising any judgement so we are simply in a political cage fight, The rules are there are no rules,
Back in circa 2006 a friend of Tony Benn met Tony Benn and got chatting to him and the convo turned to Hillary Benn
Friend: You must be disappointed that Hillary is turning out to be a Blairite and not Bennite?
Tony Benn: Don't ever disrespect my family like that ever again, I'm very proud of Hillary.
That was the last time the friend ever saw Tony Benn.
I once asked Tony Benn a question about Obama a few years before he died when studying at Aberystwyth, he was a very good speaker in person but yes very loyal to his family
It hands us over, bound hand and foot, to the EU. To toy with at their pleasure.
It’s unbelievable. Hey, Britain, Have ten years or No Deal. Absolutely fucking shameful.
Either you want Parliamentary sovereignty or you do not.
The word traitor is much overused. Especially in Brexit. But that vile document deserves the word. It is the only word. They are traitors.
We should not call people traitors. But it feels like Remainers have overreached with this bill. It would go down very badly with the electorate I suspect. I can not see Corbyn accepting it.
Comments
Explanation of the technique here. My simplistic understanding is you poll the demographics, work out how many of each democraphic are in each constituency and then after adjustments for national trends work out the probable votes in each constituency. To some extent each constituency gets a mini poll but you smooth out the big variance caused by tiny subsamples by aggregating constituencies and demographics of a similar type
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/05/31/how-yougov-model-2017-general-election-works
When a PM makes a national statement it's important they have something of substance to say, otherwise its better not to say anything...
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/i-asked-tony-benn-what-he-thought-of-his-sons-vote-on-iraq-and-learned-never-to-go-there-again-a6761006.html
But yes a good memory and a notepad work just as well.
Shame neither of us are likely to be invited!
Back in circa 2006 a friend of Tony Benn met Tony Benn and got chatting to him and the convo turned to Hillary Benn
Friend: You must be disappointed that Hillary is turning out to be a Blairite and not Bennite?
Tony Benn: Don't ever disrespect my family like that ever again, I'm very proud of Hillary.
That was the last time the friend ever saw Tony Benn.
https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1168564645197680641
He voted for the WA and against any anti-Brexit type motions/bills/indocitive options.
Fairly certain now given his tweeting he's tow the party line come the crunch.
For all the negative thread headers we've had on BoJo destroying the Conservative Party, etc, it's worth remembering that in the last days of Theresa May Electoral Calculus had a Con/BXP coalition as most likely outcome. Quite possibly with BXP as the senior partner if the trend continued.
Not only has Boris saved the Tories, if as rcs1000 says his plan all along has been to seek a majority then pass something that looks like the WA+lipstick, Boris will have actually saved us from a hard brexit - which would've been a certainty in a BXP/Con coalition.
Treasonous.
https://twitter.com/hilarybennmp/status/1168561805855219718
What next? The Un-British Activities Committee?
It’s unbelievable. Hey, Britain, Have ten years or No Deal. Absolutely fucking shameful.
To be clear, I would support any Brexit "deal" first.
And the Brexiteers are responsible for this! How delightful!
A country at ease with it self .... not!
He is pleading. Please do not vote against me...
That was pathetic.