It's pretty certain now that we're heading for a General Election. October 10th looks a good bet.
Cummings / Johnson tried to get the remainers to blink. Instead, they united and held firm.
I think Thursday October 10th looks likely (to avoid the EU Council on 17th Oct).
I reckon on balance that Johnson will call it either this evening or tomorrow. Corbyn will support. The reason for this is that Johnson won't want to go into a GE on the back of a defeat, even if he can frame it as taking on Parliament. Cummings' attempts to de-select the so-called rebels looks manic.
Corbyn will support because he's spent most of the last 2 years calling for a General Election. If he backed down now it could look weak.
Andrew Neil has suggested that an anti-No Deal legislation this week could be disregarded by a new Parliament anyway, so if that's true legislating would be a bit pointless.
I mean I've bet against it in small size but the 5-6 on Lib Dems St Albans plus the potential speeding up of the next Labour leader book happily pays for all that.
Is something being announced at 5 today ?
Corbyn seems well up for it..
Cabinet meeting at 5pm but wouldn't think there will be an annoucement today (i guess its possible there might be an annoucement tomorrow)
Think they will wait until MPs legislate to take No Deal off the table on Wednesday and then they can properly frame the election as Parliament Vs the People.
It'd be the correct strategy (I note Blair implicity agrees with this analysis).
May last time round was scuppered by poor execution and poor tactics. But her strategy was correct.
Corbyn's ratings are dire, Johnson has already been scraping the barnacles off the hull (HS2 etc) - the Tories simply need to put a soft focus sunlit uplands manifesto out and I reckon that should be enough to tonk Labour at least.
Am I right in thinking that any MP deselected to stand as an MP will not qualify for their gold-plated pay-off for losing their seat?
No, so long as they stand again - whether for another party or as independents. The rules are indifferent to your party label - what counts is whether you stand and lose rather than simply walk away. If you stand and lose, you get an average of IIRC £20,000 (it depends on length of service), even if you don't campaign and get few votes.
As I wrote the other day, the incentive for deselected MPs (of any party) to stand is therefore strong. If you're too wealthy to care about 20 grand, you can just give the money to your favourite cause - giving it to the European Movement would be elegant revenge for deselected Remainers. Of course, the split vote will make it harder for your old party to hold the seat, but as they've just kicked you out, your grief might be consolable about that.
That is very useful to know, in judging the likely consequences of Johnson's deselection threat - which in the event of a general election sound likely to be the splitting of the former Tory vote in a number of seats.
Remember several of those likely deselections are not standing including Clarke, Bebb, Letwin, Boles, Harrington
If i were a tory deselected MP i would stand again as remain tory or in a marginal seat the tories wished to gain or retain! Johnson/cummings can be stopped. The parachute payment could pay fro the remain intervention in a marginal seat.
I'd recommend perusing the Nigel Farage's Twitter pages. You'll find plenty of evidence that the BXP is not going to be standing aside to let Boris have a free run. Quite the opposite, he's setting up to portray Boris as a traitor for having the temerity even to contemplate an orderly exit. For example:
It would be quite the volte face from here for the Brexit party to lay down its arms vis a vis the Conservatives.
If Johnson gets into an election campaign promising HYUFD's formulation of "deal or no deal" there are endless opportunities for him to look shifty when up against the clarity of Nigel Farage's straightforward No Deal.
BXP will only agree to a ceasefire if Alexander Johnson only promises a "Clean Break" Brexit. Another point: what makes people think that many Labour MPs will vote for a GE. Corbyn might, but taht's not the same thing. Also why should Tory traditionalists ?
Someone on the radio described it in game theory terms.
One "classic" game theory scenario is a game of chicken. Your best strategy to win is to unscrew the steering wheel and let your opponent see you fling it out of the window,
Two big problems though:
1. Even if Johnson can put Parliament out of the game, he still in fact has the steering wheel in his game of chicken with Parliament. They may still think HE will flinch. So Johnson isn't actually unscrewing the steering wheel as he still has control over it.
2. The scenario crucially depends on both participants in the game of chicken having similar vehicles. If your opponent is in a juggernaut and you're in a Reliant Robin, your opponent may just shrug, plough into you and continue down the road.
FWIW I think that Boris will win a majority. Probably lose 7-9 seats to the SNP, a dozen or so to the Lib Dems but gain 40+ from Labour. Whether that actually amounts to a majority will very much depend on how many of the 22 are still there.
Where are those 40 gains from Labour coming from?
Also it might need to be more than 40 gains. There are a reasonable number of Con held London / South East commuter belt seats "in play" now; even somewhere like Remain voting Woking (Con MP forever) is potentially vulnerable to the Lib Dems now, as the recent Euro elections suggested.
It all depends how the Lib Dems play it.
If they go all Quinoa and sandals, they will lose. If they argue they are truly the non-radical small c conservative choice, they could pull off a lot of surprises.
5. There will be a bit of chaos but nothing like as bad as feared in the immediate short-term.
This is quite an important question, though. If we leave without a deal, how much chaos will there be - how many people will die as a result, and so on.
I'm not sure I've ever seen anyone express an opinion on it that was backed up by actual facts.
It’s very hard to assess. I expect the government to do all it can to minimise the effects in the immediate days. But there are lots of dependencies and unknown factors. For instance, if there were a virulent flu outbreak and a shortage of vaccines with consequent pressures on the NHS, how could one prove that the death of someone not admitted to hospital because of a shortage of beds was due to No Deal etc?
We are simply in uncharted territory, no country ever having done anything remotely similar. It could go OK or it could be a disaster or at any point in between, depending on whcih point in time you’re looking at
It would be quite the volte face from here for the Brexit party to lay down its arms vis a vis the Conservatives.
Indeed it would. I appreciate this isn't the point here, but where can they actually win? Maybe Northern Labour seats and possibly Buckingham?
There’ll always be Thurrock!
Jackie Doyle-Price has 3 consecutive wins by a total of 973 votes. Bonus point to anyone who knows the equivalent(ish) MP on the Labour side (3 wins by a total of 2,232).
Someone on the radio described it in game theory terms.
One "classic" game theory scenario is a game of chicken. Your best strategy to win is to unscrew the steering wheel and let your opponent see you fling it out of the window,
Two big problems though:
1. Even if Johnson can put Parliament out of the game, he still in fact has the steering wheel in his game of chicken with Parliament. They may still think HE will flinch. So Johnson isn't actually unscrewing the steering wheel as he still has control over it.
2. The scenario crucially depends on both participants in the game of chicken having similar vehicles. If your opponent is in a juggernaut and you're in a Reliant Robin, your opponent may just shrug, plough into you and continue down the road.
But a law is still a law until amended. Just because a new government is elected, all previous laws are not disbanded. Yes, the extension law can be amended by a new Parliament. But what if there is no majority to do so ?
I see that my MP is one of the 22. As a party member (and a leave voter in 2016, which now looks to have been a mistake, but I had assumed there would be a sensible transition) I would be appalled if they try to deselect my MP whom I like. Don't we get a chance to vote to keep them?
As mentioned earlier any deselected MPs will probably stand as Independents in order to keep their pay off. So you will be able to vote for them if you wish.
I reckon on balance that Johnson will call it either this evening or tomorrow. Corbyn will support. The reason for this is that Johnson won't want to go into a GE on the back of a defeat, even if he can frame it as taking on Parliament. Cummings' attempts to de-select the so-called rebels looks manic.
This I agree with, if you know you are going to lose, you try to avoid having the vote, or you remove the importance of the vote. I imagine they will give themselves one more night to change minds, but tomorrow morning would be a sensible time to announce it.
They are looking for scapegoats to blame when they have to admit to their gullible following that whatever monumental fuckup we end up with was not their fault.
It would be quite the volte face from here for the Brexit party to lay down its arms vis a vis the Conservatives.
Indeed it would. I appreciate this isn't the point here, but where can they actually win? Maybe Northern Labour seats and possibly Buckingham?
There’ll always be Thurrock!
Jackie Doyle-Price has 3 consecutive wins by a total of 973 votes. Bonus point to anyone who knows the equivalent(ish) MP on the Labour side (3 wins by a total of 2,232).
I see that my MP is one of the 22. As a party member (and a leave voter in 2016, which now looks to have been a mistake, but I had assumed there would be a sensible transition) I would be appalled if they try to deselect my MP whom I like. Don't we get a chance to vote to keep them?
Undemocratic coups obviously still need a bit of explaining.
It's possible that Darth Cummings is playing a blinder and that BoZo will achieve everything his heart desires, and more, but it still seems for the moment that the cunning strategy relies on people that hate them doing exactly what they want at every step of the process
A 15% swing from [SLD} o the SNP would be sub optimal reproduced across Scotland.
But the SNP aren't going to be able to throw their entire party at every single seat in Scotland. And I don't think SLD have 67% of the vote in any Westminster constituency.
By all means dream on if it makes you happier. But the LibDems are the only party in Scotland committed to the Union, responsible capitalism, social democracy, the rule of law and EU membership.
All of which most Scots tend to vote in favour of.
Would you care to frame a bet on how many gains you think they will make
5. There will be a bit of chaos but nothing like as bad as feared in the immediate short-term.
This is quite an important question, though. If we leave without a deal, how much chaos will there be - how many people will die as a result, and so on.
I'm not sure I've ever seen anyone express an opinion on it that was backed up by actual facts.
It’s very hard to assess. I expect the government to do all it can to minimise the effects in the immediate days. But there are lots of dependencies and unknown factors. For instance, if there were a virulent flu outbreak and a shortage of vaccines with consequent pressures on the NHS, how could one prove that the death of someone not admitted to hospital because of a shortage of beds was due to No Deal etc?
We are simply in uncharted territory, no country ever having done anything remotely similar. It could go OK or it could be a disaster or at any point in between, depending on whcih point in time you’re looking at
So not really any basis for saying, as you did, that it would be "nothing like as bad as feared"?
Obviously I don't know either, but based on the evidence of relatively minor causes producing quite major disruption, I find it plausible that it could be complete chaos.
Free Money most seats Con 2/5 Betway, Lab 4/1UniBet and 2 others.
DYOR If Swinson/Farage are biggest party your big red
Laying Swinson and Farage "Next PM" on Betfair is another way to achieve this, you can chuck in Ken Clarke too (I think that idea and him in particular has flown off) to pump up the odds.
FWIW I think that Boris will win a majority. Probably lose 7-9 seats to the SNP, a dozen or so to the Lib Dems but gain 40+ from Labour. Whether that actually amounts to a majority will very much depend on how many of the 22 are still there.
What is different about this election from previous ones is that there is essentially no movement between Labour and Conservative voters on current polling. To win seats, the Conservatives need Labour voters in marginals to switch to Lib Dem because they hate the Tories so much and in doing so let the Conservative candidate through by mistake.
Might happen but not hard to see the risks in that strategy.
I could see the Tory vote down to roughly 35% but Labour down to 25% with the Lib Dems and TBP picking up the slack. That should be enough for the Tories to win a majority (just). If TBP stand aside its easier.
BXP standing aside definitely changes the dynamic.
Tories will definitely lose a number of seats to SNP and LDs. We can also assume Labour won't gain any seats. Conservative prospects for more than making up their losses are entirely dependent on Labour marginals and former Labour voters switching to the Lib Dems. Unless BXP stands aside or the polling starts indicating direct Labour to Conservative switches.
By the way, the Brexit Party will NOT stand aside. Cummings loathes them and it's mutual.
Personally I think Farage is a far superior political strategist and has a far better understanding of EU politics, which is why he was able to anticipate the extension well in advance, and immediately knew that Johnson was laying a trap for himself.
Am I right in thinking that any MP deselected to stand as an MP will not qualify for their gold-plated pay-off for losing their seat?
No, so long as they stand again - whether for another party or as independents. The rules are indifferent to your party label - what counts is whether you stand and lose rather than simply walk away. If you stand and lose, you get an average of IIRC £20,000 (it depends on length of service), even if you don't campaign and get few votes.
As I wrote the other day, the incentive for deselected MPs (of any party) to stand is therefore strong. If you're too wealthy to care about 20 grand, you can just give the money to your favourite cause - giving it to the European Movement would be elegant revenge for deselected Remainers. Of course, the split vote will make it harder for your old party to hold the seat, but as they've just kicked you out, your grief might be consolable about that.
That is very useful to know, in judging the likely consequences of Johnson's deselection threat - which in the event of a general election sound likely to be the splitting of the former Tory vote in a number of seats.
Remember several of those likely deselections are not standing including Clarke, Bebb, Letwin, Boles, Harrington
If i were a tory deselected MP i would stand again as remain tory or in a marginal seat the tories wished to gain or retain! Johnson/cummings can be stopped. The parachute payment could pay fro the remain intervention in a marginal seat.
All of those on the list confirmed they are leaving the HOC before this row
As for the rest it makes sense too stand as independent and they could retain theiir seat
They offer nothing other than Willie ranting about no second referendum for indy , but happy to have one on Brexit. Hard to see why anyone in Scotland would waste a vote on them.
I don't think a Lib Dem vote in Scotland is a waste. If you're after a unionist party with mainstream economic policies and commitment to the rule of law, you have literally no other choice. Of course, the unionism puts *you* off, and yes, they're hypocrites for wanting a second EU referendum and not a second independence referendum, but literally every party has some compelling problem with them. I think the Lib Dems could do rather well in Scotland in a snap election, relative to recent elections.
I disagree and again say they have nothing for Scotland, they are sockpuppets for HQ and have zero talent or policies other than hating the SNP. If they are very lucky they will retain what they have.
I would expect the SNP to regain Edinburgh West unless there is a lot of tactical voting.
I'm sure the LDs will be as gracious losers as they are winners.
I'd heard a rumour that Christine Jardine wasn't standing again. Have you heard anything like that?
2. The scenario crucially depends on both participants in the game of chicken having similar vehicles. If your opponent is in a juggernaut and you're in a Reliant Robin, your opponent may just shrug, plough into you and continue down the road.
The other problem with this is that the No Deal moment isn't the end of the game. After the initial collision, they're still in the juggernaut which keeps backing up and running you over again, you're still in the reliant robbin, and at this point lots of other people in the reliant robin can grab the wheel. (I'm not sure how that works logistically with a Reliant Robbin, maybe if it has some Clown Car technology.)
A 15% swing from [SLD} o the SNP would be sub optimal reproduced across Scotland.
But the SNP aren't going to be able to throw their entire party at every single seat in Scotland. And I don't think SLD have 67% of the vote in any Westminster constituency.
By all means dream on if it makes you happier. But the LibDems are the only party in Scotland committed to the Union, responsible capitalism, social democracy, the rule of law and EU membership.
All of which most Scots tend to vote in favour of.
WE also do not like unprincipled lying toerags who would sell their soul at the drop of a cash box or fancy car
I see that my MP is one of the 22. As a party member (and a leave voter in 2016, which now looks to have been a mistake, but I had assumed there would be a sensible transition) I would be appalled if they try to deselect my MP whom I like. Don't we get a chance to vote to keep them?
As mentioned earlier any deselected MPs will probably stand as Independents in order to keep their pay off. So you will be able to vote for them if you wish.
Which is why deselection won't happen. It would be enough to lose the CINO Party the seat. If you shave off the personal following, and shave off a few more for BXPers it may well be enough to hand the seat to Labour or LDs. these things are often more complicated than right wing headbangers think (eg Brexit itself!)
I think that there is a strong likelihood that people are going to form a view that Johnston is far too wild and unstable - as well as being untrustworthy - to be given such power. It reflects so badly on Tory MPs that they chose to put him forward to the membership.
They offer nothing other than Willie ranting about no second referendum for indy , but happy to have one on Brexit. Hard to see why anyone in Scotland would waste a vote on them.
I don't think a Lib Dem vote in Scotland is a waste. If you're after a unionist party with mainstream economic policies and commitment to the rule of law, you have literally no other choice. Of course, the unionism puts *you* off, and yes, they're hypocrites for wanting a second EU referendum and not a second independence referendum, but literally every party has some compelling problem with them. I think the Lib Dems could do rather well in Scotland in a snap election, relative to recent elections.
I disagree and again say they have nothing for Scotland, they are sockpuppets for HQ and have zero talent or policies other than hating the SNP. If they are very lucky they will retain what they have.
I would expect the SNP to regain Edinburgh West unless there is a lot of tactical voting.
I'd say that's very unlikely. Split last time was LD 34, SNP 29, Con 22, Lab 15. So unionist parties with 71% of the vote. Christine Jardine is also a fairly formidable character.
FWIW I think that Boris will win a majority. Probably lose 7-9 seats to the SNP, a dozen or so to the Lib Dems but gain 40+ from Labour. Whether that actually amounts to a majority will very much depend on how many of the 22 are still there.
Where are those 40 gains from Labour coming from?
Also it might need to be more than 40 gains. There are a reasonable number of Con held London / South East commuter belt seats "in play" now; even somewhere like Remain voting Woking (Con MP forever) is potentially vulnerable to the Lib Dems now, as the recent Euro elections suggested.
It all depends how the Lib Dems play it.
If they go all Quinoa and sandals, they will lose. If they argue they are truly the non-radical small c conservative choice, they could pull off a lot of surprises.
Lib Dems , if they are sensible, will bang on about Remain this time. Locally, the tone will be more nuanced.
I mean I've bet against it in small size but the 5-6 on Lib Dems St Albans plus the potential speeding up of the next Labour leader book happily pays for all that.
Is something being announced at 5 today ?
Corbyn seems well up for it..
Cabinet meeting at 5pm but wouldn't think there will be an annoucement today (i guess its possible there might be an annoucement tomorrow)
Think they will wait until MPs legislate to take No Deal off the table on Wednesday and then they can properly frame the election as Parliament Vs the People.
It'd be the correct strategy (I note Blair implicity agrees with this analysis).
May last time round was scuppered by poor execution and poor tactics. But her strategy was correct.
Corbyn's ratings are dire, Johnson has already been scraping the barnacles off the hull (HS2 etc) - the Tories simply need to put a soft focus sunlit uplands manifesto out and I reckon that should be enough to tonk Labour at least.
What about the Brexit party though? Surely they'll do quite a bit better than UKIP in 2017. I think if the next GE is soon, it's very very hard to predict given the potential for tactical voting. I like lab most seats at 5.5 on Betfair.
I think that there is a strong likelihood that people are going to form a view that Johnston is far too wild and unstable - as well as being untrustworthy - to be given such power. It reflects so badly on Tory MPs that they chose to put him forward to the membership.
It would be quite the volte face from here for the Brexit party to lay down its arms vis a vis the Conservatives.
Indeed it would. I appreciate this isn't the point here, but where can they actually win? Maybe Northern Labour seats and possibly Buckingham?
There’ll always be Thurrock!
Jackie Doyle-Price has 3 consecutive wins by a total of 973 votes. Bonus point to anyone who knows the equivalent(ish) MP on the Labour side (3 wins by a total of 2,232).
On a rather frenzied day, calm reflection may conclude that the sentiment is actually true; Boris wants a deal and knows that other ways of getting one have failed. By and large his critics neither want a deal nor to crash out (except the Brexit Party). To be battling on against Labour, SNP, Brexit, the LDs and the entire remain establishment is to say the least valiant. Maybe I'm a minority of one, but I think Boris wants a deal, his critics on both wings don't and being where we are (partly Boris's fault but he's not alone) his tactic is the best available of a bad bunch.
They offer nothing other than Willie ranting about no second referendum for indy , but happy to have one on Brexit. Hard to see why anyone in Scotland would waste a vote on them.
I don't think a Lib Dem vote in Scotland is a waste. If you're after a unionist party with mainstream economic policies and commitment to the rule of law, you have literally no other choice. Of course, the unionism puts *you* off, and yes, they're hypocrites for wanting a second EU referendum and not a second independence referendum, but literally every party has some compelling problem with them. I think the Lib Dems could do rather well in Scotland in a snap election, relative to recent elections.
I disagree and again say they have nothing for Scotland, they are sockpuppets for HQ and have zero talent or policies other than hating the SNP. If they are very lucky they will retain what they have.
I would expect the SNP to regain Edinburgh West unless there is a lot of tactical voting.
I'd say that's very unlikely. Split last time was LD 34, SNP 29, Con 22, Lab 15. So unionist parties with 71% of the vote. Christine Jardine is also a fairly formidable character.
thick as mince as well
You know as well as anyone that this is no obstacle in politics. In fact, it's a positive advantage sometimes. See also: Hair, Thompson.
I think that there is a strong likelihood that people are going to form a view that Johnston is far too wild and unstable - as well as being untrustworthy - to be given such power. It reflects so badly on Tory MPs that they chose to put him forward to the membership.
So you think the same about Labour MPs who put an anti-Semite - Corbyn - into the ballot?
Both main parties are utterly borken. Whether they are irretrievably borken remains to be seen.
It's pretty certain now that we're heading for a General Election. October 10th looks a good bet.
Cummings / Johnson tried to get the remainers to blink. Instead, they united and held firm.
I think Thursday October 10th looks likely (to avoid the EU Council on 17th Oct).
I reckon on balance that Johnson will call it either this evening or tomorrow. Corbyn will support. The reason for this is that Johnson won't want to go into a GE on the back of a defeat, even if he can frame it as taking on Parliament. Cummings' attempts to de-select the so-called rebels looks manic.
Corbyn will support because he's spent most of the last 2 years calling for a General Election. If he backed down now it could look weak.
Andrew Neil has suggested that an anti-No Deal legislation this week could be disregarded by a new Parliament anyway, so if that's true legislating would be a bit pointless.
BBC suggesting that earliest day for an election would be Friday 11th October on the basis of a Dissolution this Friday.
Have to say, as a Farage fan and former Kipper, I don’t get his obsession with No Deal. Leaving the EU was our goal. I had assumed keeping No Deal on the table was to pressure MPs who wish to waste time into voting for a deal.
It's pretty certain now that we're heading for a General Election. October 10th looks a good bet.
Cummings / Johnson tried to get the remainers to blink. Instead, they united and held firm.
I think Thursday October 10th looks likely (to avoid the EU Council on 17th Oct).
I reckon on balance that Johnson will call it either this evening or tomorrow. Corbyn will support. The reason for this is that Johnson won't want to go into a GE on the back of a defeat, even if he can frame it as taking on Parliament. Cummings' attempts to de-select the so-called rebels looks manic.
Corbyn will support because he's spent most of the last 2 years calling for a General Election. If he backed down now it could look weak.
Andrew Neil has suggested that an anti-No Deal legislation this week could be disregarded by a new Parliament anyway, so if that's true legislating would be a bit pointless.
Andrew Neil is not God. Yes, it is true that no Parliament can bind a future Parliament. But it does not mean all laws passed just disappear. The next Parliament can amend it or even have it deleted. If a Parliament cannot bind a future one, how come we are still talking about the FTPA.
At the end of my trip the owner, Mathilde, asked me to share a £5000 bottle of Bordeaux from a nearby winery. Hard times, they were. Hard.
I am such a pleb which is why I come to PB to gain enlightenment. £5,000 bottle of wine? Hardly an owner-served ampoule of Penfolds Block 42 now, is it?
So plausibly Corbyn says "Yay election, I'm in" but 1/3 of MPs say "Ban No Deal first" and the early election motion falls, then everybody goes into the recess still yelling at each other.
On balance I think this helps Boris's messaging but who knows.
Have to say, as a Farage fan and former Kipper, I don’t get his obsession with No Deal. Leaving the EU was our goal. I had assumed keeping No Deal on the table was to pressure MPs who wish to waste time into voting for a deal.
That's because you thought the point of Brexit was about leaving the EU, whereas to him it was about destroying the EU.
Am I right in thinking that any MP deselected to stand as an MP will not qualify for their gold-plated pay-off for losing their seat?
No, so long as they stand again - whether for another party or as independents. The rules are indifferent to your party label - what counts is whether you stand and lose rather than simply walk away. If you stand and lose, you get an average of IIRC £20,000 (it depends on length of service), even if you don't campaign and get few votes.
As I wrote the other day, the incentive for deselected MPs (of any party) to stand is therefore strong. If you're too wealthy to care about 20 grand, you can just give the money to your favourite cause - giving it to the European Movement would be elegant revenge for deselected Remainers. Of course, the split vote will make it harder for your old party to hold the seat, but as they've just kicked you out, your grief might be consolable about that.
That is very useful to know, in judging the likely consequences of Johnson's deselection threat - which in the event of a general election sound likely to be the splitting of the former Tory vote in a number of seats.
Remember several of those likely deselections are not standing including Clarke, Bebb, Letwin, Boles, Harrington
If i were a tory deselected MP i would stand again as remain tory or in a marginal seat the tories wished to gain or retain! Johnson/cummings can be stopped. The parachute payment could pay fro the remain intervention in a marginal seat.
All of those on the list confirmed they are leaving the HOC before this row
As for the rest it makes sense too stand as independent and they could retain theiir seat
Indeed. I will be watching the polls carefully when it comes to voting as i will be for a hung parliament. I stilll think it is wrong the govt. Is using 100m of tax payer cash to advertise no deal given strategy of no deal ge. If i was an opposition MP I would focus where that money for party propoganda could be better spent i.e. nhs, over 75 free licience fees or tv etc...
It's pretty certain now that we're heading for a General Election. October 10th looks a good bet.
Cummings / Johnson tried to get the remainers to blink. Instead, they united and held firm.
I think Thursday October 10th looks likely (to avoid the EU Council on 17th Oct).
I reckon on balance that Johnson will call it either this evening or tomorrow. Corbyn will support. The reason for this is that Johnson won't want to go into a GE on the back of a defeat, even if he can frame it as taking on Parliament. Cummings' attempts to de-select the so-called rebels looks manic.
Corbyn will support because he's spent most of the last 2 years calling for a General Election. If he backed down now it could look weak.
Andrew Neil has suggested that an anti-No Deal legislation this week could be disregarded by a new Parliament anyway, so if that's true legislating would be a bit pointless.
Andrew Neil is not God. Yes, it is true that no Parliament can bind a future Parliament. But it does not mean all laws passed just disappear. The next Parliament can amend it or even have it deleted. If a Parliament cannot bind a future one, how come we are still talking about the FTPA.
Legislation binds a future Parliament - until it is repealed.
5. There will be a bit of chaos but nothing like as bad as feared in the immediate short-term.
This is quite an important question, though. If we leave without a deal, how much chaos will there be - how many people will die as a result, and so on.
I'm not sure I've ever seen anyone express an opinion on it that was backed up by actual facts.
It’s very hard to assess. I expect the government to do all it can to minimise the effects in the immediate days. But there are lots of dependencies and unknown factors. For instance, if there were a virulent flu outbreak and a shortage of vaccines with consequent pressures on the NHS, how could one prove that the death of someone not admitted to hospital because of a shortage of beds was due to No Deal etc?
We are simply in uncharted territory, no country ever having done anything remotely similar. It could go OK or it could be a disaster or at any point in between, depending on whcih point in time you’re looking at
So not really any basis for saying, as you did, that it would be "nothing like as bad as feared"?
Obviously I don't know either, but based on the evidence of relatively minor causes producing quite major disruption, I find it plausible that it could be complete chaos.
No basis at all. I’m not being Pollyanna-ish. Personally I fear that it could be quite bad. But the reason for saying what I did is that the government will be desperate to make the first few days look ok until press interest dies down so that they can run a “Project Fear overdone (again) story”.
My concern is more for what happens in the days, weeks, months afterwards. I gave an example over the weekend of one particular example in my industry.
But you may very well be right and it could be worse. We are in butterfly-chaos territory here, aren’t we? Certainly, doctors and food retailers are concerned and I’d trust what they say more than the government.
I mean I've bet against it in small size but the 5-6 on Lib Dems St Albans plus the potential speeding up of the next Labour leader book happily pays for all that.
Is something being announced at 5 today ?
Corbyn seems well up for it..
Cabinet meeting at 5pm but wouldn't think there will be an annoucement today (i guess its possible there might be an annoucement tomorrow)
Think they will wait until MPs legislate to take No Deal off the table on Wednesday and then they can properly frame the election as Parliament Vs the People.
It'd be the correct strategy (I note Blair implicity agrees with this analysis).
May last time round was scuppered by poor execution and poor tactics. But her strategy was correct.
Corbyn's ratings are dire, Johnson has already been scraping the barnacles off the hull (HS2 etc) - the Tories simply need to put a soft focus sunlit uplands manifesto out and I reckon that should be enough to tonk Labour at least.
What about the Brexit party though? Surely they'll do quite a bit better than UKIP in 2017. I think if the next GE is soon, it's very very hard to predict given the potential for tactical voting. I like lab most seats at 5.5 on Betfair.
Labour has been doing horribly in by-elections (-10% thus far) according to Harry's analysis - with Corbyn's dire ratings I think it's possible for Johnson to secure a decent victory even if the Brexit Party score ~ 13% or so.
Johnson is very fortunate that BXP didn't win Peterborough, I think Corbyn's victory there could ultimately prove serendipitous for him.
FWIW I think that Boris will win a majority. Probably lose 7-9 seats to the SNP, a dozen or so to the Lib Dems but gain 40+ from Labour. Whether that actually amounts to a majority will very much depend on how many of the 22 are still there.
What is different about this election from previous ones is that there is essentially no movement between Labour and Conservative voters on current polling. To win seats, the Conservatives need Labour voters in marginals to switch to Lib Dem because they hate the Tories so much and in doing so let the Conservative candidate through by mistake.
Might happen but not hard to see the risks in that strategy.
I could see the Tory vote down to roughly 35% but Labour down to 25% with the Lib Dems and TBP picking up the slack. That should be enough for the Tories to win a majority (just). If TBP stand aside its easier.
BXP standing aside definitely changes the dynamic.
Tories will definitely lose a number of seats to SNP and LDs. We can also assume Labour won't gain any seats. Conservative prospects for more than making up their losses are entirely dependent on Labour marginals and former Labour voters switching to the Lib Dems. Unless BXP stands aside or the polling starts indicating direct Labour to Conservative switches.
The more the stakes are raised, the more likely it is that GE2017 Labour voters in Labour-held constituencies will vote Labour again. Johnson is taking a huge gamble IMO.
Have to say, as a Farage fan and former Kipper, I don’t get his obsession with No Deal. Leaving the EU was our goal. I had assumed keeping No Deal on the table was to pressure MPs who wish to waste time into voting for a deal.
Nigel would probably have accepted EEA in 2016 but like everyone he's got more extreme through this tortuous process...
Just noticed that Cummings's Wiki entry says he "sexually identifies as a Wendigo". I guess he didn't put it on there himself!
Interesting that he is one of those political figures who seems famous for being famous. He claims the "credit" for "winning" the referendum, but in reality he seems to have never done a real job, other than some venture in Russia (interesting connection there!). He is now advisor for a PM who has never done a proper job. Birds of a feather an all that!
Have to say, as a Farage fan and former Kipper, I don’t get his obsession with No Deal. Leaving the EU was our goal. I had assumed keeping No Deal on the table was to pressure MPs who wish to waste time into voting for a deal.
Nigel would probably have accepted EEA in 2016 but like everyone he's got more extreme through this tortuous process...
Yes, as I said earlier, it’s testament to the doggedness of Remainers that not having left, three years after the vote to leave, is seen as shrug of the shoulders-worthy rather than for the outrageous state of affairs that it is. Everyone’s a doublin’ down now.
FWIW I think that Boris will win a majority. Probably lose 7-9 seats to the SNP, a dozen or so to the Lib Dems but gain 40+ from Labour. Whether that actually amounts to a majority will very much depend on how many of the 22 are still there.
What is different about this election from previous ones is that there is essentially no movement between Labour and Conservative voters on current polling. To win seats, the Conservatives need Labour voters in marginals to switch to Lib Dem because they hate the Tories so much and in doing so let the Conservative candidate through by mistake.
Might happen but not hard to see the risks in that strategy.
I could see the Tory vote down to roughly 35% but Labour down to 25% with the Lib Dems and TBP picking up the slack. That should be enough for the Tories to win a majority (just). If TBP stand aside its easier.
BXP standing aside definitely changes the dynamic.
Tories will definitely lose a number of seats to SNP and LDs. We can also assume Labour won't gain any seats. Conservative prospects for more than making up their losses are entirely dependent on Labour marginals and former Labour voters switching to the Lib Dems. Unless BXP stands aside or the polling starts indicating direct Labour to Conservative switches.
The more the stakes are raised, the more likely it is that GE2017 Labour voters in Labour-held constituencies will vote Labour again. Johnson is taking a huge gamble IMO.
I voted tory in 2017. I will vote LD or Labour to protect the pro- EU Labour MP. It will depend on the polls.
They offer nothing other than Willie ranting about no second referendum for indy , but happy to have one on Brexit. Hard to see why anyone in Scotland would waste a vote on them.
I don't think a Lib Dem vote in Scotland is a waste. If you're after a unionist party with mainstream economic policies and commitment to the rule of law, you have literally no other choice. Of course, the unionism puts *you* off, and yes, they're hypocrites for wanting a second EU referendum and not a second independence referendum, but literally every party has some compelling problem with them. I think the Lib Dems could do rather well in Scotland in a snap election, relative to recent elections.
I disagree and again say they have nothing for Scotland, they are sockpuppets for HQ and have zero talent or policies other than hating the SNP. If they are very lucky they will retain what they have.
I would expect the SNP to regain Edinburgh West unless there is a lot of tactical voting.
I'd say that's very unlikely. Split last time was LD 34, SNP 29, Con 22, Lab 15. So unionist parties with 71% of the vote. Christine Jardine is also a fairly formidable character.
thick as mince as well
You know as well as anyone that this is no obstacle in politics. In fact, it's a positive advantage sometimes. See also: Hair, Thompson.
We would be here all day if we were comparing numpties for sure.
A 15% swing from [SLD} o the SNP would be sub optimal reproduced across Scotland.
But the SNP aren't going to be able to throw their entire party at every single seat in Scotland. And I don't think SLD have 67% of the vote in any Westminster constituency.
By all means dream on if it makes you happier. But the LibDems are the only party in Scotland committed to the Union, responsible capitalism, social democracy, the rule of law and EU membership.
All of which most Scots tend to vote in favour of.
Would you care to frame a bet on how many gains you think they will make
Flanner's away to lump on LDs most seats in Scotland (slightly shorter than Labour I see with Smarkets, whoever they are). He'll be back shortly to top up with us I'm sure.
Comments
Cummings / Johnson tried to get the remainers to blink. Instead, they united and held firm.
I think Thursday October 10th looks likely (to avoid the EU Council on 17th Oct).
I reckon on balance that Johnson will call it either this evening or tomorrow. Corbyn will support. The reason for this is that Johnson won't want to go into a GE on the back of a defeat, even if he can frame it as taking on Parliament. Cummings' attempts to de-select the so-called rebels looks manic.
Corbyn will support because he's spent most of the last 2 years calling for a General Election. If he backed down now it could look weak.
Andrew Neil has suggested that an anti-No Deal legislation this week could be disregarded by a new Parliament anyway, so if that's true legislating would be a bit pointless.
*see: butt of malmsey...
May last time round was scuppered by poor execution and poor tactics. But her strategy was correct.
Corbyn's ratings are dire, Johnson has already been scraping the barnacles off the hull (HS2 etc) - the Tories simply need to put a soft focus sunlit uplands manifesto out and I reckon that should be enough to tonk Labour at least.
Free Money most seats Con 2/5 Betway, Lab 4/1UniBet and 2 others.
DYOR If Swinson/Farage are biggest party your big red
Another point: what makes people think that many Labour MPs will vote for a GE. Corbyn might, but taht's not the same thing. Also why should Tory traditionalists ?
One "classic" game theory scenario is a game of chicken. Your best strategy to win is to unscrew the steering wheel and let your opponent see you fling it out of the window,
Two big problems though:
1. Even if Johnson can put Parliament out of the game, he still in fact has the steering wheel in his game of chicken with Parliament. They may still think HE will flinch. So Johnson isn't actually unscrewing the steering wheel as he still has control over it.
2. The scenario crucially depends on both participants in the game of chicken having similar vehicles. If your opponent is in a juggernaut and you're in a Reliant Robin, your opponent may just shrug, plough into you and continue down the road.
If they go all Quinoa and sandals, they will lose. If they argue they are truly the non-radical small c conservative choice, they could pull off a lot of surprises.
We are simply in uncharted territory, no country ever having done anything remotely similar. It could go OK or it could be a disaster or at any point in between, depending on whcih point in time you’re looking at
Obviously I don't know either, but based on the evidence of relatively minor causes producing quite major disruption, I find it plausible that it could be complete chaos.
Tories will definitely lose a number of seats to SNP and LDs. We can also assume Labour won't gain any seats. Conservative prospects for more than making up their losses are entirely dependent on Labour marginals and former Labour voters switching to the Lib Dems. Unless BXP stands aside or the polling starts indicating direct Labour to Conservative switches.
"Crush the saboteurs"
As for the rest it makes sense too stand as independent and they could retain theiir seat
About to go and have some more over dinner too.
There must have been some truly scruffy oiks in the pub.
https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1168541409605038080?s=20
https://en.caudalie.com/spas-boutiques
At the end of my trip the owner, Mathilde, asked me to share a £5000 bottle of Bordeaux from a nearby winery. Hard times, they were. Hard.
I think if the next GE is soon, it's very very hard to predict given the potential for tactical voting. I like lab most seats at 5.5 on Betfair.
Both main parties are utterly borken. Whether they are irretrievably borken remains to be seen.
If a Parliament cannot bind a future one, how come we are still talking about the FTPA.
On balance I think this helps Boris's messaging but who knows.
Jezza: Yes. In November, after an extension of the leaving date to Jan 2020.
They would fight about no you didn't yes I did for years.
In the meantime there wouldn't be an election.
My concern is more for what happens in the days, weeks, months afterwards. I gave an example over the weekend of one particular example in my industry.
But you may very well be right and it could be worse. We are in butterfly-chaos territory here, aren’t we? Certainly, doctors and food retailers are concerned and I’d trust what they say more than the government.
Johnson is very fortunate that BXP didn't win Peterborough, I think Corbyn's victory there could ultimately prove serendipitous for him.
Interesting that he is one of those political figures who seems famous for being famous. He claims the "credit" for "winning" the referendum, but in reality he seems to have never done a real job, other than some venture in Russia (interesting connection there!). He is now advisor for a PM who has never done a proper job. Birds of a feather an all that!
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1168545564524470272
And presumably they trust Corbyn on this point not massively more than Johnson.