5. There will be a bit of chaos but nothing like as bad as feared in the immediate short-term.
This is quite an important question, though. If we leave without a deal, how much chaos will there be - how many people will die as a result, and so on.
I'm not sure I've ever seen anyone express an opinion on it that was backed up by actual facts.
And you sound like an idiot that doesn't read the news
Dominic Cummings, the former director of the official leave campaign, has been ruled to be in contempt of parliament after failing to appear before MPs investigating fake news.
Oh I know he has contempt for Parliament (well seeing how MPs have behaved since 2016 I can't disagree with him) but the idea the government would announce a date for a general election to everyone up to and including HMQ and then sneakily change the day once the legislation has gone through is for the birds.
1. There will be much huffing and puffing in Parliament this week but nothing definitive will happen. 2. Eventually there will be a GE. 3. Johnson may win but another hung Parliament is quite likely. 4. Britain will exit without a deal. 5. There will be a bit of chaos but nothing like as bad as feared in the immediate short-term. 6. Difficulties will reveal themselves over time. 7. The Johnson government will find itself ground down by having to deal with all these issues, as well as “Events”. 8. A post-Brexit settlement will still be unresolved this time next year. 9. There will likely be some unknown unknown which will render all or any of these predictions worthless.
Pretty much.
which makes all the current ranting just that,
The bit I would add is that HMG if it wins a GE will get a one off chance to make major policy changes. if it loses it cant and is deader than a dead duck. Longer term the tectonic plates of UK politics will have shifted and we have yet to see the new line up.
I might be missing something, but if the SNP is up for an election and Boris can command 300 votes of his own, that’s enough isn’t it (noting the simple two or three clause fallback plan Bill from 2017 that’s doing the rounds)? That Bill will also fix the date.
On the other hand one would think that will weigh heavily in the rebels’ thinking. They could be unemployed by Friday if they are deselected and then there’s an election, and yet if this legislation doesn’t go through they still have another chance to overthrow the Gvt in October.
He would need 2/3, that would be 434. I.e, he needs Labour.
I think that bill makes sense because it ties Boris to a date but it does have to get through the Lords, ie it needs cross party consent.
Labour would, I think, be okay with a definite mid-October date, as it rules out the (fanciful imo) idea that Boris could later change the date to post Oct 31.
If I was advising Labour I would insist upon it. I would also be wondering if an election right now was a good idea though.
At least telling the Queen to veto the decision of the elected representatives of the people would be a cheaper way of circumventing democracy than appointing a large number of peers. The latter would imply a recurring cost, and after all, there's no way of ensuring they would continue to do as they were told. You might have to appoint an even larger number to outvote them, if they became awkward.
Yes - if we want a way of abolishing democracy, let's at least do it as cheaply as possible.
I've said before - I'd be happy to be a Peer for a Year, just to get Brexit away, on the understanding I would then end my tenure. Me and thousands of others......
I'm sorry to have to break it to you, but I think you're unlikely to be asked :-(
They offer nothing other than Willie ranting about no second referendum for indy , but happy to have one on Brexit. Hard to see why anyone in Scotland would waste a vote on them.
I don't think a Lib Dem vote in Scotland is a waste. If you're after a unionist party with mainstream economic policies and commitment to the rule of law, you have literally no other choice. Of course, the unionism puts *you* off, and yes, they're hypocrites for wanting a second EU referendum and not a second independence referendum, but literally every party has some compelling problem with them. I think the Lib Dems could do rather well in Scotland in a snap election, relative to recent elections.
The interesting bit in that story isn’t the election stuff, which we know, it’s the next paragraph down. This:
‘Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar signaled his willingness to consider alternatives to the backstop, by describing some proposals from the Ulster Unionist Party as “interesting.”
The UUP proposals include the creation of a criminal offense of transporting non-compliant goods through the U.K. to the EU, and creating a cross-border trade body, the BBC reported.
While Varadkar told reporters these wouldn’t solve all the problems at the frontier, they shouldn’t be dismissed “out of hand.”’
Are there faint faint glimmers of a last minute deal here?
Once again that's exactly what I've suggested should be the solution all along.
Drop the backstop, keep the border open, make smuggling across the border a crime and come down hard on criminals that do it. Problem solved.
Take the onus of enforcing the border away from posts and put it into self-declarations and self-enforcement.
Yes. If we no deal Brexit, the eventual solution will surely be something like that. With added tech.
In which case everyone will ask why the F the two sides couldn’t reach a deal, including this. It will be a tremendous failure of statecraft, by all concerned.
I might be missing something, but if the SNP is up for an election and Boris can command 300 votes of his own, that’s enough isn’t it (noting the simple two or three clause fallback plan Bill from 2017 that’s doing the rounds)? That Bill will also fix the date.
On the other hand one would think that will weigh heavily in the rebels’ thinking. They could be unemployed by Friday if they are deselected and then there’s an election, and yet if this legislation doesn’t go through they still have another chance to overthrow the Gvt in October.
He would need 2/3, that would be 434. I.e, he needs Labour.
Highly tempted by that 5/1 on BJ to lose his seat.
10/1 to change seat is better
Leadership interviews - ran away Leadership debates - ran away Parliamentary scrutiny - prorogues Deal with rebels - not talking to them and kick them out
A coward only interested in himself.
I find it bizarre that people are still accusing Boris of being a coward. He may be reckless or incompetent or wrong but he has shown a determination and focus since becoming PM. Having an election now and risking being the briefest PM in history is not the act of a coward. It may well be what Yes Minister might have called "brave".
He's simply at the mercy of events, having made the initial spectacular error of tying himself to the October 31st date.
I think that is too simple. The extension to 31st October has been a disaster. We should have left in March. It has damaged our economy, damaged our politics and damaged the Conservative party. I can see no evidence at all that any further extension would not be even worse. Parliament must choose and if it won't we need a different Parliament.
We may well need a different parliament (we certainly need a different PM). The correct way to have got one would have been to agree an extension with the EU, in order to hold a GE with enough time aftwerards to implement the legislation necessary to mitigate the disaster of no-deal, or alternatively to agree and implement a smooth exit, depending on the GE result.
We don't need more time to hold an election. Whether we need more time afterwards depends on the result. We may be revoking at the instance of PM Swinson. It's all to play for but this has dragged on too long already.
Swinson will never be near it David , people are stupid but that stupid
I may not have been entirely serious with that suggestion. Interesting question what the USP of Lib Dems in Scotland is going to be given the position of the SNP. They are almost certain to under perform their UK results up here, Scottish leader notwithstanding.
They offer nothing other than Willie ranting about no second referendum for indy , but happy to have one on Brexit. Hard to see why anyone in Scotland would waste a vote on them.
The interesting bit in that story isn’t the election stuff, which we know, it’s the next paragraph down. This:
‘Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar signaled his willingness to consider alternatives to the backstop, by describing some proposals from the Ulster Unionist Party as “interesting.”
The UUP proposals include the creation of a criminal offense of transporting non-compliant goods through the U.K. to the EU, and creating a cross-border trade body, the BBC reported.
While Varadkar told reporters these wouldn’t solve all the problems at the frontier, they shouldn’t be dismissed “out of hand.”’
Are there faint faint glimmers of a last minute deal here?
Once again that's exactly what I've suggested should be the solution all along.
Drop the backstop, keep the border open, make smuggling across the border a crime and come down hard on criminals that do it. Problem solved.
Take the onus of enforcing the border away from posts and put it into self-declarations and self-enforcement.
Yes. If we no deal Brexit, the eventual solution will surely be something like that. With added tech.
In which case everyone will ask why the F the two sides couldn’t reach a deal, including this. It will be a tremendous failure of statecraft, by all concerned.
Brexit is already the most tremendous failure of statecraft since the European powers fell into WW1.....
The period from 1933-1939 was also somewhat sub optimal. As was Versailles, of course.
Am I right in thinking that any MP deselected to stand as an MP will not qualify for their gold-plated pay-off for losing their seat?
IIRC, if you stand as an Independent candidate and lose, you still get the payment - the odious Simon Danczuk stood in Rochdale in GE 2017, to ensure he got the pay-off.
I might be missing something, but if the SNP is up for an election and Boris can command 300 votes of his own, that’s enough isn’t it (noting the simple two or three clause fallback plan Bill from 2017 that’s doing the rounds)? That Bill will also fix the date.
On the other hand one would think that will weigh heavily in the rebels’ thinking. They could be unemployed by Friday if they are deselected and then there’s an election, and yet if this legislation doesn’t go through they still have another chance to overthrow the Gvt in October.
He would need 2/3, that would be 434. I.e, he needs Labour.
Am I right in thinking that any MP deselected to stand as an MP will not qualify for their gold-plated pay-off for losing their seat?
The PM can't yet prevent someone from standing as an MP, and this provision is unlikely to be enacted unless he wins a majority.
He can stop them running as *Conservatives*, but the payments aren't related to the party, and I'd expect a lot of them will run as independents / LibDems / a new party.
They offer nothing other than Willie ranting about no second referendum for indy , but happy to have one on Brexit. Hard to see why anyone in Scotland would waste a vote on them.
I don't think a Lib Dem vote in Scotland is a waste. If you're after a unionist party with mainstream economic policies and commitment to the rule of law, you have literally no other choice. Of course, the unionism puts *you* off, and yes, they're hypocrites for wanting a second EU referendum and not a second independence referendum, but literally every party has some compelling problem with them. I think the Lib Dems could do rather well in Scotland in a snap election, relative to recent elections.
How does Bollocks to Brexit work when you are fighting the SNP (who are nowhere near so polite)? I think that they will go backwards in Scotland even if they end up gaining seats in London and the SW.
They offer nothing other than Willie ranting about no second referendum for indy , but happy to have one on Brexit. Hard to see why anyone in Scotland would waste a vote on them.
I don't think a Lib Dem vote in Scotland is a waste. If you're after a unionist party with mainstream economic policies and commitment to the rule of law, you have literally no other choice. Of course, the unionism puts *you* off, and yes, they're hypocrites for wanting a second EU referendum and not a second independence referendum, but literally every party has some compelling problem with them. I think the Lib Dems could do rather well in Scotland in a snap election, relative to recent elections.
I disagree and again say they have nothing for Scotland, they are sockpuppets for HQ and have zero talent or policies other than hating the SNP. If they are very lucky they will retain what they have.
Am I right in thinking that any MP deselected to stand as an MP will not qualify for their gold-plated pay-off for losing their seat?
IIRC, if you stand as an Independent candidate and lose, you still get the payment - the odious Simon Danczuk stood in Rochdale in GE 2017, to ensure he got the pay-off.
Ironically, it effectively guarantees almost everyone will stand as the "Real Conservative".
At least telling the Queen to veto the decision of the elected representatives of the people would be a cheaper way of circumventing democracy than appointing a large number of peers. The latter would imply a recurring cost, and after all, there's no way of ensuring they would continue to do as they were told. You might have to appoint an even larger number to outvote them, if they became awkward.
Yes - if we want a way of abolishing democracy, let's at least do it as cheaply as possible.
I've said before - I'd be happy to be a Peer for a Year, just to get Brexit away, on the understanding I would then end my tenure. Me and thousands of others......
I'm sorry to have to break it to you, but I think you're unlikely to be asked :-(
Well, the Legion of Stout Yeoman stand ready to do our nation's bidding. Just in case.
The interesting bit in that story isn’t the election stuff, which we know, it’s the next paragraph down. This:
‘Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar signaled his willingness to consider alternatives to the backstop, by describing some proposals from the Ulster Unionist Party as “interesting.”
The UUP proposals include the creation of a criminal offense of transporting non-compliant goods through the U.K. to the EU, and creating a cross-border trade body, the BBC reported.
While Varadkar told reporters these wouldn’t solve all the problems at the frontier, they shouldn’t be dismissed “out of hand.”’
Are there faint faint glimmers of a last minute deal here?
Once again that's exactly what I've suggested should be the solution all along.
Drop the backstop, keep the border open, make smuggling across the border a crime and come down hard on criminals that do it. Problem solved.
Take the onus of enforcing the border away from posts and put it into self-declarations and self-enforcement.
Yes. If we no deal Brexit, the eventual solution will surely be something like that. With added tech.
In which case everyone will ask why the F the two sides couldn’t reach a deal, including this. It will be a tremendous failure of statecraft, by all concerned.
Fantasy
Maybe, malc, but it’s a fantasy suggested by the Ulster Unionists, which is being seriously considered by the Taoiseach.
I see Cyclefree's comments nowadays through the post they made comparing a potential post-Brexit Britain to post-Tito Yugoslavia.
The trouble, you see, is that if you frame everything in the context of absurd hyperbole, as so many remainers have done, then you tend to undermine your own credibility..
Since I didn’t say that the only credibility you have undermined is your own.
Parliament has had THREE years to agree a deal. And it has failed to do so.
The corollary is that we leave without a deal.
The public seem to understand this rather better than the self-appointed guardians of moral and political rectitude on the remain side seem to realise.
Not this comment again.
Awkward facts, as i said.
I note no attempt on your part to refute them.
Various facts are wrong:
Fact 1: Article 50 was not triggered until 29 March 2017. Two and a half not three years ago.
Fact 2: the deal which was negotiated was first put to Parliament in December, first voted on in January 2019, with the third vote occurring on 29 March 2019.
So the period during which Parliament failed to agree a deal was 4 months. If you include the subsequent indicative votes that just adds a further 2 months.
The period during which Parliament has had time to consider and vote on any sort of deal has, in reality, been a quite short concentrated period. Not over three years at all.
so if theyre so short of time, did they cancel their holidays ? Have they stopped the conference season ? Have they said they will work weekends ?
There ain’t a deal to debate at the moment. And the PM is proroguing Parliament to stop them doing anything.
And as I’m sure you recall it was May and her Leader of the House who kept putting off votes.
So if theres nothing to debate then theres no time lost, whats all the fuss about ?
I wasn’t the one complaining about the time taken. Some Leaver was. I think (as my recent header made clear) think we should take more time to do this properly, though I realise that that is quite a niche view.
I'm not sure I've ever seen anyone express an opinion on it that was backed up by actual facts.
Listen to JRM on LBC this morning...
I'm sorry, I don't think I can bring myself to do that, given the minuscule probability that there would be anything worth listening to.
But if you know of any actual facts that would help us in preparing for the effect of a No Deal Brexit on our lives, please do post links to the information. It may save lives, after all.
I might be missing something, but if the SNP is up for an election and Boris can command 300 votes of his own, that’s enough isn’t it (noting the simple two or three clause fallback plan Bill from 2017 that’s doing the rounds)? That Bill will also fix the date.
On the other hand one would think that will weigh heavily in the rebels’ thinking. They could be unemployed by Friday if they are deselected and then there’s an election, and yet if this legislation doesn’t go through they still have another chance to overthrow the Gvt in October.
Could the government get such a bill through the House of Lords in time, given the opposition ranged against it?
If the date were in the legislation as pre-31 Oct, and watertight, I don’t think enough peers would vote down the Commons wanting an election.
Frankly I’m starting to wonder if Corbyn wouldn’t just whip for it himself (I’m assuming the 2/3 route is not available because no one now trusts Boris on prerogative powers and he could shift it).
Am I right in thinking that any MP deselected to stand as an MP will not qualify for their gold-plated pay-off for losing their seat?
IIRC, if you stand as an Independent candidate and lose, you still get the payment - the odious Simon Danczuk stood in Rochdale in GE 2017, to ensure he got the pay-off.
Interesting, thanks. So the PM has to buy them off with a peerage.....
They offer nothing other than Willie ranting about no second referendum for indy , but happy to have one on Brexit. Hard to see why anyone in Scotland would waste a vote on them.
I don't think a Lib Dem vote in Scotland is a waste. If you're after a unionist party with mainstream economic policies and commitment to the rule of law, you have literally no other choice. Of course, the unionism puts *you* off, and yes, they're hypocrites for wanting a second EU referendum and not a second independence referendum, but literally every party has some compelling problem with them. I think the Lib Dems could do rather well in Scotland in a snap election, relative to recent elections.
From an SLD point of view, not replicating the Shetland by election performance I presume? A 15% swing from them to the SNP would be sub optimal reproduced across Scotland.
For Corbyn, it seems the socialist revolution cannot wait. Tony Blair's and Owen Smith's warnings about the trap of an early election fall on deaf ears.
"“A general election is the democratic way forward” – Corbyn’s full speech in Salford"
Oh I know he has contempt for Parliament (well seeing how MPs have behaved since 2016 I can't disagree with him) but the idea the government would announce a date for a general election to everyone up to and including HMQ and then sneakily change the day once the legislation has gone through is for the birds.
I don't see why this is any madder than shutting down parliament for 5 weeks under the pretext that you need the time to prepare parliament for The Queen to make a speech about crime and the NHS.
Am I right in thinking that any MP deselected to stand as an MP will not qualify for their gold-plated pay-off for losing their seat?
IIRC, if you stand as an Independent candidate and lose, you still get the payment - the odious Simon Danczuk stood in Rochdale in GE 2017, to ensure he got the pay-off.
Interesting, thanks. So the PM has to buy them off with a peerage.....
A sensible person would, otherwise you have Tory, Brexit Party and the incumbent all splitting the right wing vote.
Am I right in thinking that any MP deselected to stand as an MP will not qualify for their gold-plated pay-off for losing their seat?
No, so long as they stand again - whether for another party or as independents. The rules are indifferent to your party label - what counts is whether you stand and lose rather than simply walk away. If you stand and lose, you get an average of IIRC £20,000 (it depends on length of service), even if you don't campaign and get few votes.
As I wrote the other day, the incentive for deselected MPs (of any party) to stand is therefore strong. If you're too wealthy to care about 20 grand, you can just give the money to your favourite cause - giving it to the European Movement would be elegant revenge for deselected Remainers. Of course, the split vote will make it harder for your old party to hold the seat, but as they've just kicked you out, your grief might be consolable about that.
For Corbyn, it seems the socialist revolution cannot wait. Tony Blair's and Owen Smith's warnings about the trap of an early election fall on deaf ears.
"“A general election is the democratic way forward” – Corbyn’s full speech in Salford"
I might be missing something, but if the SNP is up for an election and Boris can command 300 votes of his own, that’s enough isn’t it (noting the simple two or three clause fallback plan Bill from 2017 that’s doing the rounds)? That Bill will also fix the date.
On the other hand one would think that will weigh heavily in the rebels’ thinking. They could be unemployed by Friday if they are deselected and then there’s an election, and yet if this legislation doesn’t go through they still have another chance to overthrow the Gvt in October.
Could the government get such a bill through the House of Lords in time, given the opposition ranged against it?
If the date were in the legislation as pre-31 Oct, and watertight, I don’t think enough peers would vote down the Commons wanting an election.
Frankly I’m starting to wonder if Corbyn wouldn’t just whip for it himself (I’m assuming the 2/3 route is not available because no one now trusts Boris on prerogative powers and he could shift it).
Once you know someone is a compulsive liar, whether to trust them becomes a calculation based on your perception of their perception of their self-interest.
That calculation is extremely difficult in the present circumstances. I'd suggest the rational course is not to trust anyone who is known to be a compulsive liar.
1. There will be much huffing and puffing in Parliament this week but nothing definitive will happen. 2. Eventually there will be a GE. 3. Johnson may win but another hung Parliament is quite likely. 4. Britain will exit without a deal. 5. There will be a bit of chaos but nothing like as bad as feared in the immediate short-term. 6. Difficulties will reveal themselves over time. 7. The Johnson government will find itself ground down by having to deal with all these issues, as well as “Events”. 8. A post-Brexit settlement will still be unresolved this time next year. 9. There will likely be some unknown unknown which will render all or any of these predictions worthless.
+1 for a thoughtful contribution
Although point 9 is now moot, since you've predicted it. It will be a known unknown unknown.
The interesting bit in that story isn’t the election stuff, which we know, it’s the next paragraph down. This:
‘Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar signaled his willingness to consider alternatives to the backstop, by describing some proposals from the Ulster Unionist Party as “interesting.”
The UUP proposals include the creation of a criminal offense of transporting non-compliant goods through the U.K. to the EU, and creating a cross-border trade body, the BBC reported.
While Varadkar told reporters these wouldn’t solve all the problems at the frontier, they shouldn’t be dismissed “out of hand.”’
Are there faint faint glimmers of a last minute deal here?
Once again that's exactly what I've suggested should be the solution all along.
Drop the backstop, keep the border open, make smuggling across the border a crime and come down hard on criminals that do it. Problem solved.
Take the onus of enforcing the border away from posts and put it into self-declarations and self-enforcement.
Yes. If we no deal Brexit, the eventual solution will surely be something like that. With added tech.
In which case everyone will ask why the F the two sides couldn’t reach a deal, including this. It will be a tremendous failure of statecraft, by all concerned.
Fantasy
Maybe, malc, but it’s a fantasy suggested by the Ulster Unionists, which is being seriously considered by the Taoiseach.
I am not convinced, lots of panic but for sure if there had been even a glimmer of it being feasible it wold have been out before now. They are all just trying to make out how hard they really tried so they can shirk taking any blame. I think we are too far down the road, it has to be No Deal or UK goes cap in hand and accepts what it takes to remove backstop.
Am I right in thinking that any MP deselected to stand as an MP will not qualify for their gold-plated pay-off for losing their seat?
No I think they still get their severence pay no matter how they lose their seat.
As I understand it, until 2015, an MP who lost an election got more than a retiring MP. But that's no longer the case, as you say.
Some MPs in the past have been known to stand in a neighbouring, unwinnable seat on retirement as it still used to count as being defeated at an election. And, of course, deselection wouldn't stop you standing for re-election - I believe de-selected Tory, John Browne, did so in Winchester in 1992 as an Independent Conservative, partly with the redundancy payment in mind.
I might be missing something, but if the SNP is up for an election and Boris can command 300 votes of his own, that’s enough isn’t it (noting the simple two or three clause fallback plan Bill from 2017 that’s doing the rounds)? That Bill will also fix the date.
On the other hand one would think that will weigh heavily in the rebels’ thinking. They could be unemployed by Friday if they are deselected and then there’s an election, and yet if this legislation doesn’t go through they still have another chance to overthrow the Gvt in October.
He would need 2/3, that would be 434. I.e, he needs Labour.
I'd recommend perusing Nigel Farage's Twitter pages. You'll find plenty of evidence that the BXP is not going to be standing aside to let Boris have a free run. Quite the opposite, he's setting up to portray Boris as a traitor for having the temerity even to contemplate an orderly exit. For example:
FWIW I think that Boris will win a majority. Probably lose 7-9 seats to the SNP, a dozen or so to the Lib Dems but gain 40+ from Labour. Whether that actually amounts to a majority will very much depend on how many of the 22 are still there.
Am I right in thinking that any MP deselected to stand as an MP will not qualify for their gold-plated pay-off for losing their seat?
No, so long as they stand again - whether for another party or as independents. The rules are indifferent to your party label - what counts is whether you stand and lose rather than simply walk away. If you stand and lose, you get an average of IIRC £20,000 (it depends on length of service), even if you don't campaign and get few votes.
As I wrote the other day, the incentive for deselected MPs (of any party) to stand is therefore strong. If you're too wealthy to care about 20 grand, you can just give the money to your favourite cause - giving it to the European Movement would be elegant revenge for deselected Remainers. Of course, the split vote will make it harder for your old party to hold the seat, but as they've just kicked you out, your grief might be consolable about that.
That is very useful to know, in judging the likely consequences of Johnson's deselection threat - which in the event of a general election sound likely to be the splitting of the former Tory vote in a number of seats.
Parliament has had THREE years to agree a deal. And it has failed to do so.
The corollary is that we leave without a deal.
The public seem to understand this rather better than the self-appointed guardians of moral and political rectitude on the remain side seem to realise.
Parliament was completely sidelined until the first meaningful vote in January. Not even nine months ago.
Really? So there was no Parliamentary Select Committee on Brexit?
What exactly has Hillary Benn been doing if Parliament wasn't debating Brexit until the first meaningful vote?
Select Committees don’t make legislation, as you well know. Select Committees don’t debate. They take evidence, issue reports, question Ministers.
The only period during which Parliament had any role to agree or not a deal was over a 4 month (possibly 6 months, if you want to be generous) period.
Given how important a decision Brexit is, that is far too little. But both May and Johnson have this in common: a wish to sideline Parliament.
You're right its not the select committees job to make legislation, the Commons doesn't negotiate deals either.
The Commons discussions on Brexit didn't begin with the finalised deal. The first reading of the European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Act 2017 was in January 2017 with Royal Assent given by March 2017. In that Act the Commons decided democratically to change our law that we leave the EU with or without a deal at the end of the Article 50 process.
Now given the Commons and Lords passed that Act, I would have thought that anyone opposed to No Deal would back any deal that came back to the Commons. But apparently the Commons thought better. So be it.
If we leave due to Article 50 expiring then that won't be due to a decision made this year alone. It will have been made possible by an Act of Parliament passed nearly 3 years ago.
I was talking about debate on the WA and you about the whole process. So happily on this occasion we are both right!
They offer nothing other than Willie ranting about no second referendum for indy , but happy to have one on Brexit. Hard to see why anyone in Scotland would waste a vote on them.
I don't think a Lib Dem vote in Scotland is a waste. If you're after a unionist party with mainstream economic policies and commitment to the rule of law, you have literally no other choice. Of course, the unionism puts *you* off, and yes, they're hypocrites for wanting a second EU referendum and not a second independence referendum, but literally every party has some compelling problem with them. I think the Lib Dems could do rather well in Scotland in a snap election, relative to recent elections.
From an SLD point of view, not replicating the Shetland by election performance I presume? A 15% swing from them to the SNP would be sub optimal reproduced across Scotland.
From the point of view of previous national elections: 2015, 2016, 2017. Yes the Shetland result wasn't brilliant for the Lib Dems, but a by-election is a different dynamic to a national election.
I'd recommend perusing the Nigel Farage's Twitter pages. You'll find plenty of evidence that the BXP is not going to be standing aside to let Boris have a free run. Quite the opposite, he's setting up to portray Boris as a traitor for having the temerity even to contemplate an orderly exit. For example:
I see that my MP is one of the 22. As a party member (and a leave voter in 2016, which now looks to have been a mistake, but I had assumed there would be a sensible transition) I would be appalled if they try to deselect my MP whom I like. Don't we get a chance to vote to keep them?
Am I right in thinking that any MP deselected to stand as an MP will not qualify for their gold-plated pay-off for losing their seat?
No, so long as they stand again - whether for another party or as independents. The rules are indifferent to your party label - what counts is whether you stand and lose rather than simply walk away. If you stand and lose, you get an average of IIRC £20,000 (it depends on length of service), even if you don't campaign and get few votes.
As I wrote the other day, the incentive for deselected MPs (of any party) to stand is therefore strong. If you're too wealthy to care about 20 grand, you can just give the money to your favourite cause - giving it to the European Movement would be elegant revenge for deselected Remainers. Of course, the split vote will make it harder for your old party to hold the seat, but as they've just kicked you out, your grief might be consolable about that.
Didn't they change the rules after the 2015 election so that no longer applies? I thought retiring and defeated MPs now get the same?
As noted below, there have been cases in the past of de-selected MPs standing as independents, and even older, retiring MPs standing as a paper candidate elsewhere.
They offer nothing other than Willie ranting about no second referendum for indy , but happy to have one on Brexit. Hard to see why anyone in Scotland would waste a vote on them.
I don't think a Lib Dem vote in Scotland is a waste. If you're after a unionist party with mainstream economic policies and commitment to the rule of law, you have literally no other choice. Of course, the unionism puts *you* off, and yes, they're hypocrites for wanting a second EU referendum and not a second independence referendum, but literally every party has some compelling problem with them. I think the Lib Dems could do rather well in Scotland in a snap election, relative to recent elections.
I disagree and again say they have nothing for Scotland, they are sockpuppets for HQ and have zero talent or policies other than hating the SNP. If they are very lucky they will retain what they have.
I would expect the SNP to regain Edinburgh West unless there is a lot of tactical voting.
1. There will be much huffing and puffing in Parliament this week but nothing definitive will happen. 2. Eventually there will be a GE. 3. Johnson may win but another hung Parliament is quite likely. 4. Britain will exit without a deal. 5. There will be a bit of chaos but nothing like as bad as feared in the immediate short-term. 6. Difficulties will reveal themselves over time. 7. The Johnson government will find itself ground down by having to deal with all these issues, as well as “Events”. 8. A post-Brexit settlement will still be unresolved this time next year. 9. There will likely be some unknown unknown which will render all or any of these predictions worthless.
Pretty much.
which makes all the current ranting just that,
The bit I would add is that HMG if it wins a GE will get a one off chance to make major policy changes. if it loses it cant and is deader than a dead duck. Longer term the tectonic plates of UK politics will have shifted and we have yet to see the new line up.
4 Exit with a deal. Remain is second favourite 9 Is a certainty
Am I right in thinking that any MP deselected to stand as an MP will not qualify for their gold-plated pay-off for losing their seat?
No, so long as they stand again - whether for another party or as independents. The rules are indifferent to your party label - what counts is whether you stand and lose rather than simply walk away. If you stand and lose, you get an average of IIRC £20,000 (it depends on length of service), even if you don't campaign and get few votes.
As I wrote the other day, the incentive for deselected MPs (of any party) to stand is therefore strong. If you're too wealthy to care about 20 grand, you can just give the money to your favourite cause - giving it to the European Movement would be elegant revenge for deselected Remainers. Of course, the split vote will make it harder for your old party to hold the seat, but as they've just kicked you out, your grief might be consolable about that.
Just out of interest, would you stand again in a GE? Never say never?!
I'd recommend perusing the Nigel Farage's Twitter pages. You'll find plenty of evidence that the BXP is not going to be standing aside to let Boris have a free run. Quite the opposite, he's setting up to portray Boris as a traitor for having the temerity even to contemplate an orderly exit. For example:
Might Ruth Davidson stand for Parliament in an early election?
Surely even she does not have the brass neck for that u turn and it would need to be as a carpet bagger in England as she would want a safe seat in the highly unlikely event she did.
Ruth won't stand. Far more likely to return to the fray in the event of IndyRef2, May even lead the No campaign.
FWIW I think that Boris will win a majority. Probably lose 7-9 seats to the SNP, a dozen or so to the Lib Dems but gain 40+ from Labour. Whether that actually amounts to a majority will very much depend on how many of the 22 are still there.
Where are those 40 gains from Labour coming from?
On the basis of UNS that would require a swing to the Tories of 4.4% - a lead of 11.3%.
They offer nothing other than Willie ranting about no second referendum for indy , but happy to have one on Brexit. Hard to see why anyone in Scotland would waste a vote on them.
I don't think a Lib Dem vote in Scotland is a waste. If you're after a unionist party with mainstream economic policies and commitment to the rule of law, you have literally no other choice. Of course, the unionism puts *you* off, and yes, they're hypocrites for wanting a second EU referendum and not a second independence referendum, but literally every party has some compelling problem with them. I think the Lib Dems could do rather well in Scotland in a snap election, relative to recent elections.
I disagree and again say they have nothing for Scotland, they are sockpuppets for HQ and have zero talent or policies other than hating the SNP. If they are very lucky they will retain what they have.
I would expect the SNP to regain Edinburgh West unless there is a lot of tactical voting.
I'm sure the LDs will be as gracious losers as they are winners.
FPT - If you think a snap GE might be held this week with a very short campaign leading to an election around 12th October (5 weeks later) that results in Boris losing then a new Government rapidly passes a second referendum act inside a week or two, followed by a very short set up and official campaign of about 4 weeks, it's not impossible a second referendum is held before 2020. It would end up with a poll about mid December. Requires EU to extend to year end of course but they almost certainly would for that.
You can currently lay that at 1.03 on Betfair (roughly 40/1) with plenty of money available.
A referendum requires 6 months minimum and that’s allowing the question to be refined as the other processes continue. We’ve discussed this before and the details can be found on the electoral commission website from memory.
I’m on my mobile so can’t find the link sorry
My memory of the previous discussions was that the 6 months is a general recommendation but you can totally do it way faster.
They offer nothing other than Willie ranting about no second referendum for indy , but happy to have one on Brexit. Hard to see why anyone in Scotland would waste a vote on them.
I don't think a Lib Dem vote in Scotland is a waste. If you're after a unionist party with mainstream economic policies and commitment to the rule of law, you have literally no other choice. Of course, the unionism puts *you* off, and yes, they're hypocrites for wanting a second EU referendum and not a second independence referendum, but literally every party has some compelling problem with them. I think the Lib Dems could do rather well in Scotland in a snap election, relative to recent elections.
I disagree and again say they have nothing for Scotland, they are sockpuppets for HQ and have zero talent or policies other than hating the SNP. If they are very lucky they will retain what they have.
I would expect the SNP to regain Edinburgh West unless there is a lot of tactical voting.
I'd say that's very unlikely. Split last time was LD 34, SNP 29, Con 22, Lab 15. So unionist parties with 71% of the vote. Christine Jardine is also a fairly formidable character.
Am I right in thinking that any MP deselected to stand as an MP will not qualify for their gold-plated pay-off for losing their seat?
No, so long as they stand again - whether for another party or as independents. The rules are indifferent to your party label - what counts is whether you stand and lose rather than simply walk away. If you stand and lose, you get an average of IIRC £20,000 (it depends on length of service), even if you don't campaign and get few votes.
As I wrote the other day, the incentive for deselected MPs (of any party) to stand is therefore strong. If you're too wealthy to care about 20 grand, you can just give the money to your favourite cause - giving it to the European Movement would be elegant revenge for deselected Remainers. Of course, the split vote will make it harder for your old party to hold the seat, but as they've just kicked you out, your grief might be consolable about that.
That is very useful to know, in judging the likely consequences of Johnson's deselection threat - which in the event of a general election sound likely to be the splitting of the former Tory vote in a number of seats.
Remember several of those likely deselections are not standing including Clarke, Bebb, Letwin, Boles, Harrington
I mean I've bet against it in small size but the 5-6 on Lib Dems St Albans plus the potential speeding up of the next Labour leader book happily pays for all that.
They offer nothing other than Willie ranting about no second referendum for indy , but happy to have one on Brexit. Hard to see why anyone in Scotland would waste a vote on them.
I don't think a Lib Dem vote in Scotland is a waste. If you're after a unionist party with mainstream economic policies and commitment to the rule of law, you have literally no other choice. Of course, the unionism puts *you* off, and yes, they're hypocrites for wanting a second EU referendum and not a second independence referendum, but literally every party has some compelling problem with them. I think the Lib Dems could do rather well in Scotland in a snap election, relative to recent elections.
From an SLD point of view, not replicating the Shetland by election performance I presume? A 15% swing from them to the SNP would be sub optimal reproduced across Scotland.
Yep it certainly would be suboptimal, but won't happen. They will easily hold their 4 seats and probably pick up one more - Fife NE.
FWIW I think that Boris will win a majority. Probably lose 7-9 seats to the SNP, a dozen or so to the Lib Dems but gain 40+ from Labour. Whether that actually amounts to a majority will very much depend on how many of the 22 are still there.
Where are those 40 gains from Labour coming from?
Also it might need to be more than 40 gains. There are a reasonable number of Con held London / South East commuter belt seats "in play" now; even somewhere like Remain voting Woking (Con MP forever) is potentially vulnerable to the Lib Dems now, as the recent Euro elections suggested.
A 15% swing from [SLD} o the SNP would be sub optimal reproduced across Scotland.
But the SNP aren't going to be able to throw their entire party at every single seat in Scotland. And I don't think SLD have 67% of the vote in any Westminster constituency.
By all means dream on if it makes you happier. But the LibDems are the only party in Scotland committed to the Union, responsible capitalism, social democracy, the rule of law and EU membership.
All of which most Scots tend to vote in favour of.
They offer nothing other than Willie ranting about no second referendum for indy , but happy to have one on Brexit. Hard to see why anyone in Scotland would waste a vote on them.
I don't think a Lib Dem vote in Scotland is a waste. If you're after a unionist party with mainstream economic policies and commitment to the rule of law, you have literally no other choice. Of course, the unionism puts *you* off, and yes, they're hypocrites for wanting a second EU referendum and not a second independence referendum, but literally every party has some compelling problem with them. I think the Lib Dems could do rather well in Scotland in a snap election, relative to recent elections.
From an SLD point of view, not replicating the Shetland by election performance I presume? A 15% swing from them to the SNP would be sub optimal reproduced across Scotland.
From the point of view of previous national elections: 2015, 2016, 2017. Yes the Shetland result wasn't brilliant for the Lib Dems, but a by-election is a different dynamic to a national election.
They could pick up seats such as North East Fife, with the benefit of some tactical voting from disgruntled Tories, whilst losing others.
Its Labour that will collapse like scaffolding in a stiff breeze. Can Ian Murray hold onto the People's Socialist Republic of Morningside? I assume he will be last man standing for SLab.
Duplicity and being untrustworthy are part of politics but hancock for some reason strikes me as being a first rate candidate as duplicitous cnut of the year!
FWIW I think that Boris will win a majority. Probably lose 7-9 seats to the SNP, a dozen or so to the Lib Dems but gain 40+ from Labour. Whether that actually amounts to a majority will very much depend on how many of the 22 are still there.
Where are those 40 gains from Labour coming from?
On the basis of UNS that would require a swing to the Tories of 4.4% - a lead of 11.3%.
I'd recommend perusing Nigel Farage's Twitter pages. You'll find plenty of evidence that the BXP is not going to be standing aside to let Boris have a free run. Quite the opposite, he's setting up to portray Boris as a traitor for having the temerity even to contemplate an orderly exit. For example:
Yes, Farage knows that his political career is only sustainable on a constant diet of betrayal and anger. He can't just say "well done Boris" and join up with him, he would become politically irrelevant. All the credit for no deal would go to Boris and Farage would be forgotten about, with very little appetite to invite him on Question Time etc in future. Boris could promise to invade France and Farage would still find a way to accuse him of selling out to Brussels.
FWIW I think that Boris will win a majority. Probably lose 7-9 seats to the SNP, a dozen or so to the Lib Dems but gain 40+ from Labour. Whether that actually amounts to a majority will very much depend on how many of the 22 are still there.
What is different about this election from previous ones is that there is essentially no movement between Labour and Conservative voters on current polling. To win seats, the Conservatives need Labour voters in marginals to switch to Lib Dem because they hate the Tories so much and in doing so let the Conservative candidate through by mistake.
Might happen but not hard to see the risks in that strategy.
I might be missing something, but if the SNP is up for an election and Boris can command 300 votes of his own, that’s enough isn’t it (noting the simple two or three clause fallback plan Bill from 2017 that’s doing the rounds)? That Bill will also fix the date.
On the other hand one would think that will weigh heavily in the rebels’ thinking. They could be unemployed by Friday if they are deselected and then there’s an election, and yet if this legislation doesn’t go through they still have another chance to overthrow the Gvt in October.
He would need 2/3, that would be 434. I.e, he needs Labour.
But who beyond Governmenr loyalists would support that?
Corbyn loyalists and the SNP. Enough to get you a majority.
Why would it be in Corbyn's interests to do that?
Corbyn campaigning on his platform with added “only Labour can avert a disastrous no deal Brexit on 31 October” is a serious proposition. Personally I think Boris would win, but I only think he’s more likely than not; not that he’s a shoe in.
With reference to a couple of comments on Farage, I actually think him calling Boris a splitter who wants to get a deal might be the most useful thing for Boris: keeps some moderates in the boat whilst maintain current gains and allowing Farage to have a crack at labour.
They offer nothing other than Willie ranting about no second referendum for indy , but happy to have one on Brexit. Hard to see why anyone in Scotland would waste a vote on them.
I don't think a Lib Dem vote in Scotland is a waste. If you're after a unionist party with mainstream economic policies and commitment to the rule of law, you have literally no other choice. Of course, the unionism puts *you* off, and yes, they're hypocrites for wanting a second EU referendum and not a second independence referendum, but literally every party has some compelling problem with them. I think the Lib Dems could do rather well in Scotland in a snap election, relative to recent elections.
I disagree and again say they have nothing for Scotland, they are sockpuppets for HQ and have zero talent or policies other than hating the SNP. If they are very lucky they will retain what they have.
I would expect the SNP to regain Edinburgh West unless there is a lot of tactical voting.
I'm sure the LDs will be as gracious losers as they are winners.
I'd heard a rumour that Christine Jardine wasn't standing again. Have you heard anything like that?
FWIW I think that Boris will win a majority. Probably lose 7-9 seats to the SNP, a dozen or so to the Lib Dems but gain 40+ from Labour. Whether that actually amounts to a majority will very much depend on how many of the 22 are still there.
Where are those 40 gains from Labour coming from?
On the basis of UNS that would require a swing to the Tories of 4.4% - a lead of 11.3%.
So it'd require UNS to hold true and for there to be no meaningful change in the Labour and Tory vote shares during the campaign.
A 15% swing from [SLD} o the SNP would be sub optimal reproduced across Scotland.
But the SNP aren't going to be able to throw their entire party at every single seat in Scotland. And I don't think SLD have 67% of the vote in any Westminster constituency.
By all means dream on if it makes you happier. But the LibDems are the only party in Scotland committed to the Union, responsible capitalism, social democracy, the rule of law and EU membership.
All of which most Scots tend to vote in favour of.
So just to test how much of a realist rather than a dreamer you are, how many seats will the LDs gain in Scotland, and are you willing to bet on it?
I mean I've bet against it in small size but the 5-6 on Lib Dems St Albans plus the potential speeding up of the next Labour leader book happily pays for all that.
Is something being announced at 5 today ?
Corbyn seems well up for it..
Cabinet meeting at 5pm but wouldn't think there will be an annoucement today (i guess its possible there might be an annoucement tomorrow)
Think they will wait until MPs legislate to take No Deal off the table on Wednesday and then they can properly frame the election as Parliament Vs the People.
I see that my MP is one of the 22. As a party member (and a leave voter in 2016, which now looks to have been a mistake, but I had assumed there would be a sensible transition) I would be appalled if they try to deselect my MP whom I like. Don't we get a chance to vote to keep them?
I think your post illustrates the danger of moving blocs of Cons Leavers/Lab Leavers/etc around the potential GE outcome chess board as though they were all of one mind.
FWIW I think that Boris will win a majority. Probably lose 7-9 seats to the SNP, a dozen or so to the Lib Dems but gain 40+ from Labour. Whether that actually amounts to a majority will very much depend on how many of the 22 are still there.
What is different about this election from previous ones is that there is essentially no movement between Labour and Conservative voters on current polling. To win seats, the Conservatives need Labour voters in marginals to switch to Lib Dem because they hate the Tories so much and in doing so let the Conservative candidate through by mistake.
Might happen but not hard to see the risks in that strategy.
I could see the Tory vote down to roughly 35% but Labour down to 25% with the Lib Dems and TBP picking up the slack. That should be enough for the Tories to win a majority (just). If TBP stand aside its easier.
I'd recommend perusing the Nigel Farage's Twitter pages. You'll find plenty of evidence that the BXP is not going to be standing aside to let Boris have a free run. Quite the opposite, he's setting up to portray Boris as a traitor for having the temerity even to contemplate an orderly exit. For example:
It would be quite the volte face from here for the Brexit party to lay down its arms vis a vis the Conservatives.
If Johnson gets into an election campaign promising HYUFD's formulation of "deal or no deal" there are endless opportunities for him to look shifty when up against the clarity of Nigel Farage's straightforward No Deal.
Has anyone thought that being shortest serving PM might suit Johnson's ego? He'll guarantee his place in history and the record is not likely to be broken.
Comments
I'm not sure I've ever seen anyone express an opinion on it that was backed up by actual facts.
which makes all the current ranting just that,
The bit I would add is that HMG if it wins a GE will get a one off chance to make major policy changes. if it loses it cant and is deader than a dead duck. Longer term the tectonic plates of UK politics will have shifted and we have yet to see the new line up.
Of course, the unionism puts *you* off, and yes, they're hypocrites for wanting a second EU referendum and not a second independence referendum, but literally every party has some compelling problem with them.
I think the Lib Dems could do rather well in Scotland in a snap election, relative to recent elections.
He will agree to a GE, of course. Stuff the sophistry of his Remainers.
He can stop them running as *Conservatives*, but the payments aren't related to the party, and I'd expect a lot of them will run as independents / LibDems / a new party.
But if you know of any actual facts that would help us in preparing for the effect of a No Deal Brexit on our lives, please do post links to the information. It may save lives, after all.
Frankly I’m starting to wonder if Corbyn wouldn’t just whip for it himself (I’m assuming the 2/3 route is not available because no one now trusts Boris on prerogative powers and he could shift it).
"“A general election is the democratic way forward” – Corbyn’s full speech in Salford"
https://labourlist.org/2019/09/a-general-election-is-the-democratic-way-forward-corbyns-full-speech-in-salford/
This is war, as HYUFD and his tribe see it.
Might stockpile popcorn for election night.
As I wrote the other day, the incentive for deselected MPs (of any party) to stand is therefore strong. If you're too wealthy to care about 20 grand, you can just give the money to your favourite cause - giving it to the European Movement would be elegant revenge for deselected Remainers. Of course, the split vote will make it harder for your old party to hold the seat, but as they've just kicked you out, your grief might be consolable about that.
That calculation is extremely difficult in the present circumstances. I'd suggest the rational course is not to trust anyone who is known to be a compulsive liar.
Although point 9 is now moot, since you've predicted it. It will be a known unknown unknown.
I think we are too far down the road, it has to be No Deal or UK goes cap in hand and accepts what it takes to remove backstop.
Some MPs in the past have been known to stand in a neighbouring, unwinnable seat on retirement as it still used to count as being defeated at an election. And, of course, deselection wouldn't stop you standing for re-election - I believe de-selected Tory, John Browne, did so in Winchester in 1992 as an Independent Conservative, partly with the redundancy payment in mind.
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1167024094115770368
There are lots of other examples.
Just had a wine bath with my wife followed by a head, shoulders and back massage in a wine spa resort in rural Bulgaria
It's amazing how that takes the edge off.
Yes the Shetland result wasn't brilliant for the Lib Dems, but a by-election is a different dynamic to a national election.
As noted below, there have been cases in the past of de-selected MPs standing as independents, and even older, retiring MPs standing as a paper candidate elsewhere.
9 Is a certainty
https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1168508977900150785
It would be quite the volte face from here for the Brexit party to lay down its arms vis a vis the Conservatives.
I mean I've bet against it in small size but the 5-6 on Lib Dems St Albans plus the potential speeding up of the next Labour leader book happily pays for all that.
Is something being announced at 5 today ?
Corbyn seems well up for it..
But the SNP aren't going to be able to throw their entire party at every single seat in Scotland. And I don't think SLD have 67% of the vote in any Westminster constituency.
By all means dream on if it makes you happier. But the LibDems are the only party in Scotland committed to the Union, responsible capitalism, social democracy, the rule of law and EU membership.
All of which most Scots tend to vote in favour of.
Its Labour that will collapse like scaffolding in a stiff breeze. Can Ian Murray hold onto the People's Socialist Republic of Morningside? I assume he will be last man standing for SLab.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1168536686227316736?s=20
You calculated before that that was a lead of just under 10%? 2.4% + 3.6x2 = 9.6%?
Might happen but not hard to see the risks in that strategy.
With reference to a couple of comments on Farage, I actually think him calling Boris a splitter who wants to get a deal might be the most useful thing for Boris: keeps some moderates in the boat whilst maintain current gains and allowing Farage to have a crack at labour.
Colour me unconvinced.
b) a wine bath is a thing?
Think they will wait until MPs legislate to take No Deal off the table on Wednesday and then they can properly frame the election as Parliament Vs the People.
*cough* @HYUFD *cough*