politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » By George! Will BJ flop or will he last a long time?
Comments
-
You mean we are more European than you thought.Cyclefree said:
I quite agree. I am building up my reserves.Chris said:
Yes. I was told here yesterday to "grow up" for suggesting that there could be food shortages. But apparently after Michael Gove claimed “there will be no shortages of fresh food,” the British Retail Consortium issued a statement saying they had told ministers repeatedly that that wasn't true.Cyclefree said:
No basis at all. I’m not being Pollyanna-ish. Personally I fear that it could be quite bad. But the reason for saying what I did is that the government will be desperate to make the first few days look ok until press interest dies down so that they can run a “Project Fear overdone (again) story”.Chris said:
So not really any basis for saying, as you did, that it would be "nothing like as bad as feared"?Cyclefree said:
We are simply in uncharted territory, no country ever having done anything remotely similar. It could go OK or it could be a disaster or at any point in between, depending on whcih point in time you’re looking at
Obviously I don't know either, but based on the evidence of relatively minor causes producing quite major disruption, I find it plausible that it could be complete chaos.
My concern is more for what happens in the days, weeks, months afterwards. I gave an example over the weekend of one particular example in my industry.
But you may very well be right and it could be worse. We are in butterfly-chaos territory here, aren’t we? Certainly, doctors and food retailers are concerned and I’d trust what they say more than the government.
If ministers are lying to us about the potential for food shortages as a result of their policies, I think people should be very concerned.
We are still nearly two months away from a No Deal Brexit. I think it would be entirely prudent for people to build up some reserves of food during that period. Yet Matt Hancock publicly told people they shouldn't do so. I think that is the height of irreponsibility. If people die as a result of this reckless policy, I think he and others should be held to account.
We do not have a responsible grown up government.
I felt that Britain had quite a grown up thoughtful political culture, and it was one reason I was - and to a certain extent still am - quite sceptical about the EU project. (Note: IMO there is a difference between being Eurosceptic and a Brexiteer.) But the last few years have been quite an eye opener. The extent of the frivolousness and a fundamental lack of seriousness in our politicians, with a few rare exceptions, has been shocking.0 -
Breaching a long held convention would be just the thing that one should expect from the Conservative In Name Only Party. I wonder what they will do if the monarchy becomes inconvenient, or the House of Lords?GIN1138 said:
I'm sure Boris and Cummings will run a Con candidate against him.Scott_P said:
Were you up for Bercow?
0 -
.
Bercow started it.Nigel_Foremain said:
Breaching a long held convention would be just the thing that one should expect from the Conservative In Name Only Party. I wonder what they will do if the monarchy becomes inconvenient, or the House of Lords?GIN1138 said:
I'm sure Boris and Cummings will run a Con candidate against him.Scott_P said:
Were you up for Bercow?
0 -
The USA brews some very fine real ales, particularly in New York. Many of our own micro-breweries now produce American Pale Ale, and very good it is too!Andrew said:
Probably higher alcohol content than most American beers too.JosiasJessop said:
TBF, "dilute German Scout piss" is probably preferable to many cheap wines ...0 -
Someone ought to put together one of those internet gifs featuring Johnson and Cummings playing pipes while Corbyn dances around in front of them.0
-
He does not need to embrace No Deal. He just needs to rule out the backstop. Then he gets BXP support through an election. Post-election he can figure out some wheeze with the EU that rules out a backstop and replaces it with a "totally not the backstop" alternative. Farage can cry, but what else can he do at that point?Chris said:
Don't get me wrong. Nobody knows what will happen.viewcode said:
Because, of course, everything's been really sane so far.Chris said:
It's crazy to assume that embracing No Deal will win him the election.Stark_Dawning said:
Nigel might have played a blinder here. Boris is now surely completely cornered and has to go with full-on No Deal. That might buy him some short-term reprieve, but the long-term prospects will be ghastly.Gallowgate said:
But embracing No Deal is as high-risk a strategy as anyone can imagine.
It could lead to complete disaster.0 -
Taking two phones solves that problem.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Relax, folks. There will not be a snap election.
Nothing ever happens when Mike is away.0 -
There you go. Another Conservative!RobD said:.
Bercow started it.Nigel_Foremain said:
Breaching a long held convention would be just the thing that one should expect from the Conservative In Name Only Party. I wonder what they will do if the monarchy becomes inconvenient, or the House of Lords?GIN1138 said:
I'm sure Boris and Cummings will run a Con candidate against him.Scott_P said:
Were you up for Bercow?0 -
and hed be straight off the States to give Trump a BJ and invade IranThe_Taxman said:
To be fair to Blair if he set up a Blair party i would vote for iti!Tabman said:
Perhaps it was reverse psychology. Blair wants an election to purge Labour and/or complete the realignmnet, so says to Corbyn, under no circumstance should we have an election. Corbyn duly complies by asking for one as he does the opposite of what Blair wants.Tissue_Price said:
Quite. Does Blair have any self-awareness?Pulpstar said:Hah. Nothing probably tempted him more than Blair railing against the idea on the radio this morning.
0 -
You think there won't be intimate searches?AlastairMeeks said:
Taking two phones solves that problem.CarlottaVance said:0 -
This just goes to show that FTPA was, is and remains and complete and utter waste of time in practice (including all the hours and hours devoted to debating it on PB) because the Opposition will ALWAYS agree to a general election in any and all circumstances as its the only way they can ever go from Opposition to power.AndyJS said:Cummings probably got this one right, and was depending on it.
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1168544562954067970
For the love of god can the next Parliament just get rid of it already. 0 -
It's not that long held. For example, Labour and Liberal both ran against Selwyn Lloyd in 1974Nigel_Foremain said:
Breaching a long held convention would be just the thing that one should expect from the Conservative In Name Only Party. I wonder what they will do if the monarchy becomes inconvenient, or the House of Lords?GIN1138 said:
I'm sure Boris and Cummings will run a Con candidate against him.Scott_P said:
Were you up for Bercow?0 -
...although to be fair, Boris will do that too.Alanbrooke said:
and hed be straight off the States to give Trump a BJ and invade IranThe_Taxman said:
To be fair to Blair if he set up a Blair party i would vote for iti!Tabman said:
Perhaps it was reverse psychology. Blair wants an election to purge Labour and/or complete the realignmnet, so says to Corbyn, under no circumstance should we have an election. Corbyn duly complies by asking for one as he does the opposite of what Blair wants.Tissue_Price said:
Quite. Does Blair have any self-awareness?Pulpstar said:Hah. Nothing probably tempted him more than Blair railing against the idea on the radio this morning.
Unasked.0 -
Oh, that's OK then!RobD said:.
Bercow started it.Nigel_Foremain said:
Breaching a long held convention would be just the thing that one should expect from the Conservative In Name Only Party. I wonder what they will do if the monarchy becomes inconvenient, or the House of Lords?GIN1138 said:
I'm sure Boris and Cummings will run a Con candidate against him.Scott_P said:
Were you up for Bercow?0 -
As i say, I will follow the polls carefully and tactically vote against the tories and encourage people to not vote ory in seberal ways...0
-
Morning all.
I think Boris Johnson's plan, through all of this, has been to get an election without being accused of being opportunistic about it. His goal is to unite the Brexit vote, by promising to go No Deal if necessary, and to use this to secure a working majority. With said majority, he hopes to secure something that looks like the WA, only with (perhaps) an extended Implementation period or something else that renders the backstop a non-issue.
It may very well work, but there are a number of issues:
1. The Brexit Party are not complete idiots. They see Boris posturing about No Deal, but know he doesn't really want No Deal. Therefore, they are not likely to stand aside. It may be that they can be kept to under 10%, in which case, Boris's bet paid off. But if Nigel Farage gets traction and they end up in the mid-teens, then Mr Johnson will not look so smart.
2. How much tactical voting will there be? And how much is th Labour vote tribal? Ultimately, success for Boris Johnson happens if he takes 20-30 Labour Leave seats, while only losing a dozen to the LibDems and SNP. (On which note, the House of Commons will be poorer for the loss of Zac Goldsmith.) The problem is if Remainers in Don Valley decide to hold their nose and vote Labour rather than split the non-Tory vote. Mr Johnson is fortunate indeed that his opponent is Jeremy Corbyn, but it may not be enough.
3. The true danger for Mr Johnson would be if Ms Swinson turned out to be a brilliant media performer, and the LDs repeated their Euro election result. I don't think this is likely, but elections are funny things.
Ultimately, risky though an election is, it's probably the right thing for the country. If Mr Johnson wins, he has the mandate for No Deal if Necessary. If the Brexit Party wins, we will simply have No Deal. If the LibDems win, there will be an extension and then a referendum on revoke. And if Labour wins, Brexit will be the least of our worries.2 -
Bad day in the Bahamas, 225 MPH gusts and 30 inches of rain.0
-
In a seat where Remain tallied a majority at the referendum, the Conservatives don't look particularly well-placed to evict an MP who seems well enough liked locally.The_Taxman said:0 -
Your wit is as pleasant and urbane as ever, Richard, but the sad truth is that the EU representatives have made ours look a sorry bunch.Richard_Tyndall said:
You mean we are more European than you thought.Cyclefree said:
I quite agree. I am building up my reserves.Chris said:
Yes. I was told here yesterday to "grow up" for suggesting that there could be food shortages. But apparently after Michael Gove claimed “there will be no shortages of fresh food,” the British Retail Consortium issued a statement saying they had told ministers repeatedly that that wasn't true.Cyclefree said:
Nodown so that they can run a “Project Fear overdone (again) story”.Chris said:
So not really any basis for saying, as you did, that it would be "nothing like as bad as feared"?Cyclefree said:
We are simply in uncharted territory, no country ever having done anything remotely similar. It could go OK or it could be a disaster or at any point in between, depending on whcih point in time you’re looking at
Obviously I don't know either, but based on the evidence of relatively minor causes producing quite major disruption, I find it plausible that it could be complete chaos.
My concern is more for what happens in the days, weeks, months afterwards. I gave an example over the weekend of one particular example in my industry.
But you may very well be right and it could be worse. We are in butterfly-chaos territory here, aren’t we? Certainly, doctors and food retailers are concerned and I’d trust what they say more than the government.
If ministers are lying to us about the potential for food shortages as a result of their policies, I think people should be very concerned.
We are still nearly two months away from a No Deal Brexit. I think it would be entirely prudent for people to build up some reserves of food during that period. Yet Matt Hancock publicly told people they shouldn't do so. I think that is the height of irreponsibility. If people die as a result of this reckless policy, I think he and others should be held to account.
We do not have a responsible grown up government.
I felt that Britain had quite a grown up thoughtful political culture, and it was one reason I was - and to a certain extent still am - quite sceptical about the EU project. (Note: IMO there is a difference between being Eurosceptic and a Brexiteer.) But the last few years have been quite an eye opener. The extent of the frivolousness and a fundamental lack of seriousness in our politicians, with a few rare exceptions, has been shocking.0 -
Why is it fine for Bercow to do away with long-held traditions, but not Johnson?Nigel_Foremain said:
Oh, that's OK then!RobD said:.
Bercow started it.Nigel_Foremain said:
Breaching a long held convention would be just the thing that one should expect from the Conservative In Name Only Party. I wonder what they will do if the monarchy becomes inconvenient, or the House of Lords?GIN1138 said:
I'm sure Boris and Cummings will run a Con candidate against him.Scott_P said:
Were you up for Bercow?0 -
Handing in all phones is SOP at Number 10 - I was at a meeting there a few weeks ago (no, not with Boris) so I know it's still current practice.AlastairMeeks said:
Taking two phones solves that problem.CarlottaVance said:
They don't actually search you, so you could take in 10 phones if you really wanted to.0 -
The reality of it is that there is a large group of Brexiteers, Farage among them, who don't actually want to OWN Brexit. They are gearing themselves up, and have done for months, to say "ah, but it wasn't exactly what we wanted, just 80% of what we wanted, so we really aren't to blame for anything and will continue to complain from the sidelines.isam said:
Have to say, as a Farage fan and former Kipper, I don’t get his obsession with No Deal. Leaving the EU was our goal. I had assumed keeping No Deal on the table was to pressure MPs who wish to waste time into voting for a deal.Gallowgate said:
I have much the same criticism of Lib Dems who bailed soon after the Coalition was founded. Did they ever really want power, if they ran a mile the moment they had a bit (ostensibly on the basis they had to share it, but really because they liked carping more than running things)?
It's "God make me good... but not yet".0 -
I remember making the point before the 2016 referendum that a Leave win would make a Corbyn government much more likely.rcs1000 said:And if Labour wins, Brexit will be the least of our worries.
0 -
Well to be fair Bercow has gone back on his word about how long he would serve as Speaker.Nigel_Foremain said:
Breaching a long held convention would be just the thing that one should expect from the Conservative In Name Only Party. I wonder what they will do if the monarchy becomes inconvenient, or the House of Lords?GIN1138 said:
I'm sure Boris and Cummings will run a Con candidate against him.Scott_P said:
Were you up for Bercow?
He promised he'd do no more than nine years and is past ten so he's fair game IMO.
Bercow wants to "go on and on" it seems and as the Blessed Margaret found out that never ends well...0 -
fair comment :-)viewcode said:
...although to be fair, Boris will do that too.Alanbrooke said:
and hed be straight off the States to give Trump a BJ and invade IranThe_Taxman said:
To be fair to Blair if he set up a Blair party i would vote for iti!Tabman said:
Perhaps it was reverse psychology. Blair wants an election to purge Labour and/or complete the realignmnet, so says to Corbyn, under no circumstance should we have an election. Corbyn duly complies by asking for one as he does the opposite of what Blair wants.Tissue_Price said:
Quite. Does Blair have any self-awareness?Pulpstar said:Hah. Nothing probably tempted him more than Blair railing against the idea on the radio this morning.
Unasked.0 -
0
-
What's an MRP poll?
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/11685469882055188500 -
Thats why Alistair always takes two phonesChris said:
You think there won't be intimate searches?AlastairMeeks said:
Taking two phones solves that problem.CarlottaVance said:0 -
If they want him to lose, aren't they better off leaving him to the Brexit Party? It's a 51% Remain seat so Bercow vs Con vs BXP looks a fairly comfortable win for him (though NB the Greens have stood against him previously, scoring around 15%).GIN1138 said:I'm sure Boris and Cummings will run a Con candidate against him.
Were you up for Bercow?0 -
It's hard to think of anything Labour could do that could be more economically destructive than the combination of No Deal Brexit and magic money tree spending that Boris seems determined to pursue.rcs1000 said:Morning all.
I think Boris Johnson's plan, through all of this, has been to get an election without being accused of being opportunistic about it. His goal is to unite the Brexit vote, by promising to go No Deal if necessary, and to use this to secure a working majority. With said majority, he hopes to secure something that looks like the WA, only with (perhaps) an extended Implementation period or something else that renders the backstop a non-issue.
It may very well work, but there are a number of issues:
1. The Brexit Party are not complete idiots. They see Boris posturing about No Deal, but know he doesn't really want No Deal. Therefore, they are not likely to stand aside. It may be that they can be kept to under 10%, in which case, Boris's bet paid off. But if Nigel Farage gets traction and they end up in the mid-teens, then Mr Johnson will not look so smart.
2. How much tactical voting will there be? And how much is th Labour vote tribal? Ultimately, success for Boris Johnson happens if he takes 20-30 Labour Leave seats, while only losing a dozen to the LibDems and SNP. (On which note, the House of Commons will be poorer for the loss of Zac Goldsmith.) The problem is if Remainers in Don Valley decide to hold their nose and vote Labour rather than split the non-Tory vote. Mr Johnson is fortunate indeed that his opponent is Jeremy Corbyn, but it may not be enough.
3. The true danger for Mr Johnson would be if Ms Swinson turned out to be a brilliant media performer, and the LDs repeated their Euro election result. I don't think this is likely, but elections are funny things.
Ultimately, risky though an election is, it's probably the right thing for the country. If Mr Johnson wins, he has the mandate for No Deal if Necessary. If the Brexit Party wins, we will simply have No Deal. If the LibDems win, there will be an extension and then a referendum on revoke. And if Labour wins, Brexit will be the least of our worries.0 -
I was thinking the same thing! tape one inside your underpants! Phoning from it afterwards might be a little unpleasant, but who is going to start frisking Nick Soame's nether regions to check he hasn't got something in there?!AlastairMeeks said:
Taking two phones solves that problem.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Multilevel regression. It's the same kind of polling that accurately predicted results like Labour winning Canterbury in 2017.SouthamObserver said:What's an MRP poll?
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/11685469882055188500 -
How would you price Bercow's seat if the Tories, Brexit party and say 1 other no hoper independent were running.AlastairMeeks said:
In a seat where Remain tallied a majority at the referendum, the Conservatives don't look particularly well-placed to evict an MP who seems well enough liked locally.The_Taxman said:0 -
you just lack imaginationFeersumEnjineeya said:
It's hard to think of anything Labour could do that could be more economically destructive than the combination of No Deal Brexit and magic money tree spending that Boris seems determined to pursue.rcs1000 said:Morning all.
I think Boris Johnson's plan, through all of this, has been to get an election without being accused of being opportunistic about it. His goal is to unite the Brexit vote, by promising to go No Deal if necessary, and to use this to secure a working majority. With said majority, he hopes to secure something that looks like the WA, only with (perhaps) an extended Implementation period or something else that renders the backstop a non-issue.
It may very well work, but there are a number of issues:
1. The Brexit Party are not complete idiots. They see Boris posturing about No Deal, but know he doesn't really want No Deal. Therefore, they are not likely to stand aside. It may be that they can be kept to under 10%, in which case, Boris's bet paid off. But if Nigel Farage gets traction and they end up in the mid-teens, then Mr Johnson will not look so smart.
2. How much tactical voting will there be? And how much is th Labour vote tribal? Ultimately, success for Boris Johnson happens if he takes 20-30 Labour Leave seats, while only losing a dozen to the LibDems and SNP. (On which note, the House of Commons will be poorer for the loss of Zac Goldsmith.) The problem is if Remainers in Don Valley decide to hold their nose and vote Labour rather than split the non-Tory vote. Mr Johnson is fortunate indeed that his opponent is Jeremy Corbyn, but it may not be enough.
3. The true danger for Mr Johnson would be if Ms Swinson turned out to be a brilliant media performer, and the LDs repeated their Euro election result. I don't think this is likely, but elections are funny things.
Ultimately, risky though an election is, it's probably the right thing for the country. If Mr Johnson wins, he has the mandate for No Deal if Necessary. If the Brexit Party wins, we will simply have No Deal. If the LibDems win, there will be an extension and then a referendum on revoke. And if Labour wins, Brexit will be the least of our worries.0 -
I think it's the same as YouGov's fancy model from 2017.SouthamObserver said:What's an MRP poll?
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/11685469882055188500 -
In a seat where John Stevens beat Nigel Farage, and the Labour and LibDems won't be standing...AlastairMeeks said:
In a seat where Remain tallied a majority at the referendum, the Conservatives don't look particularly well-placed to evict an MP who seems well enough liked locally.The_Taxman said:
Yes, Bercow would win. But I struggle to se how he could remain Speaker in a situation where the party of government (assuming a Conservative victory) ran against him.
Elevation to the Lords is, of course, the usual thing. But is it "writ in stone", or could he cast aside convention and return to the backbenches as an independent? In which case, the Conservatives could lose end up effectively losing another seat.0 -
Amber Rudd could lose her 346 majority to Labour in Hastings and Rye since the town is moving in a Labour direction demographically.0
-
Not if you give it to Grayling.Gabs2 said:
That could be done in six hours.Beibheirli_C said:
No. If you wait until Oct 28th, the only option left is Revoke, because it takes very little time - probably an afternoon and that includes writing the letter and sending a plane over to Brussels to deliver it.Jonathan said:
He would say “I’ve heard the concerns , No one wants no deal. So on 28 October we have one chance to avert it. I call on the EU and opposition to come together to get a deal over the line. I offer a free vote. The onus is now on everyone to come together and pass a better deal”.Beibheirli_C said:
No its not. By then it would be too late to do anything. They would just say so and point at Boris and say "What is coming is entirely your fault."Jonathan said:Been thinking about what Boris should do to leave on 31 Oct with enough political capital to survive beyond it.
He should schedule a MV for late 28 October. Make it a free vote on whatever the status of the deal is by then. Get agreement from Gaukeward now for no extensions.
Pressure is then on his opponents.0 -
Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification poll.SouthamObserver said:What's an MRP poll?
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1168546988205518850
Is the methodology used so successfully in 2017 with their constituency poll.0 -
wouldnt he just switch party ?rcs1000 said:
In a seat where John Stevens beat Nigel Farage, and the Labour and LibDems won't be standing...AlastairMeeks said:
In a seat where Remain tallied a majority at the referendum, the Conservatives don't look particularly well-placed to evict an MP who seems well enough liked locally.The_Taxman said:
Yes, Bercow would win. But I struggle to se how he could remain Speaker in a situation where the party of government (assuming a Conservative victory) ran against him.
Elevation to the Lords is, of course, the usual thing. But is it "writ in stone", or could he cast aside convention and return to the backbenches as an independent? In which case, the Conservatives could lose end up effectively losing another seat.0 -
Surprise surprise. What a bummer for HYUFD et al. Boris not making a blind bit of difference over his super-competent predecessor! What a bunch of over confident twats! So they have another election, it is a hung parliament. What then Mr Cummy-Biscuit?williamglenn said:
Multilevel regression. It's the same kind of polling that accurately predicted results like Labour winning Canterbury in 2017.SouthamObserver said:What's an MRP poll?
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/11685469882055188500 -
So Lab/lib dem/SNP/Plaid comes to...320TheScreamingEagles said:
Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification poll.SouthamObserver said:What's an MRP poll?
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1168546988205518850
Is the methodology used so successfully in 2017 with their constituency poll.
still not a majority.
0 -
A man can hope.Chris said:
You think there won't be intimate searches?AlastairMeeks said:
Taking two phones solves that problem.CarlottaVance said:1 -
Alliance are forecast to gain Belfast East in Northern Ireland. The one change there.Slackbladder said:
So Lab/lib dem/SNP/Plaid comes to...320TheScreamingEagles said:
Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification poll.SouthamObserver said:What's an MRP poll?
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1168546988205518850
Is the methodology used so successfully in 2017 with their constituency poll.
still not a majority.0 -
I wonder what assumptions they made about the Brexit Party standing candidates?SouthamObserver said:What's an MRP poll?
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/11685469882055188500 -
Have we now hit the point where if no election is called this week Boris will be said to have “bottled it”? Plenty of chance for Number 10 to have stopped these rumours by now.0
-
It is so so easy to get round that. Unbelievably easy.Chris said:
No doubt. Sheep.Beibheirli_C said:
Anyone who does that may run afoul of the new Cumming Directive and be deselectedChris said:
Amazing that people are such absolute sheep. I don't have a mobile phone, but if I did, and someone told me I wouldn't be allowed to attend a social event without handing it over, I should find something else to do very quickly. Pitiful.CarlottaVance said:0 -
321 with the alliance gain of Belfast East in NI.Slackbladder said:
So Lab/lib dem/SNP/Plaid comes to...320TheScreamingEagles said:
Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification poll.SouthamObserver said:What's an MRP poll?
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1168546988205518850
Is the methodology used so successfully in 2017 with their constituency poll.
still not a majority.0 -
If the Alliance surge in Northern Ireland actually translates into them winning seats, thenSouthamObserver said:What's an MRP poll?
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1168546988205518850
So, Con + DUP would be about three seats below Lab + SNP + LD + Green + PC + Alliance.
"Strong and stable" would not be the best description of that outcome.0 -
Polling of various forms predicted an Ed Miliband-led government in 2015.Nigel_Foremain said:
Surprise surprise. What a bummer for HYUFD et al. Boris not making a blind bit of difference over his super-competent predecessor! What a bunch of over confident twats! So they have another election, it is a hung parliament. What then Mr Cummy-Biscuit?williamglenn said:
Multilevel regression. It's the same kind of polling that accurately predicted results like Labour winning Canterbury in 2017.SouthamObserver said:What's an MRP poll?
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/11685469882055188500 -
"Bottler" Boris has an even better ring than Bottler Brownab195 said:Have we now hit the point where if no election is called this week Boris will be said to have “bottled it”? Plenty of chance for Number 10 to have stopped these rumours by now.
0 -
So - a desperate gamble on Johnson's part in the hope that something unexpected will turn up to improve his position.SouthamObserver said:What's an MRP poll?
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1168546988205518850
At the cost of explaining to the British public, over the course of several weeks, how a No Deal Brexit would work. And having to turn up to debates, answer questions in interviews, and all that kind of thing.
If he goes for that, it's a recognition of how hopeless his position is with the current House of Commons.0 -
Martin Baxter has just updated his polling average and seats forecast.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Con 356, Lab 188, LD 34, SNP 50.0 -
keep clutching at them!JSpring said:
Polling of various forms predicted an Ed Miliband-led government in 2015.Nigel_Foremain said:
Surprise surprise. What a bummer for HYUFD et al. Boris not making a blind bit of difference over his super-competent predecessor! What a bunch of over confident twats! So they have another election, it is a hung parliament. What then Mr Cummy-Biscuit?williamglenn said:
Multilevel regression. It's the same kind of polling that accurately predicted results like Labour winning Canterbury in 2017.SouthamObserver said:What's an MRP poll?
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/11685469882055188500 -
Wouldn’t it be delicious if there was no time to debate the vote to dissolve Parliament due to the progrogation?0
-
A fine upstanding citizen indeed.The_Taxman said:As I say, I will follow the polls carefully and tactically vote against the tories and encourage people to not vote tory in several ways...
And hopefully there are many more like you - since there lies the route to evicting the toxic clown.0 -
Not been able to keep up today - has Faraged essentially nixed a Tory-BXP pact, potentially securing remain, yet?0
-
Yes. Just tweet it as you leave the building after they hand the phone back to you.Cyclefree said:
It is so so easy to get round that. Unbelievably easy.Chris said:
No doubt. Sheep.Beibheirli_C said:
Anyone who does that may run afoul of the new Cumming Directive and be deselectedChris said:
Amazing that people are such absolute sheep. I don't have a mobile phone, but if I did, and someone told me I wouldn't be allowed to attend a social event without handing it over, I should find something else to do very quickly. Pitiful.CarlottaVance said:
Duh!0 -
i know an MP who was in a meeting with Cummings this morning..they havent bottled it. Evidently he was very clear in his mind as to where this was going and how it would play out.
Evidently its the media who are getting edgy as to what will happen next.
More surprises to come i reckon.0 -
Well, more British. Very possibly I had a rose-tinted view of that.Richard_Tyndall said:
You mean we are more European than you thought.Cyclefree said:
I quite agree. I am building up my reserves.Chris said:
Yes. I was told here yesterday to "grow up" for suggesting that there could be food shortages. But apparently after Michael Gove claimed “there will be no shortages of fresh food,” the British Retail Consortium issued a statement saying they had told ministers repeatedly that that wasn't true.Cyclefree said:
No basis at all. I’m not being Pollyanna-ish. Personally I fear that it could be quite bad. But the reason for saying what I did is that the government will be desperate to make the first few days look ok until press interest dies down so that they can run a “Project Fear overdone (again) story”.Chris said:
So not really any basis for saying, as you did, that it would be "nothing like as bad as feared"?Cyclefree said:
We are simply in uncharted territory, no country ever having done anything remotely similar. It could go OK or it could be a disaster or at any point in between, depending on whcih point in time you’re looking at
Obviously I don't know either, but based on the evidence of relatively minor causes producing quite major disruption, I find it plausible that it could be complete chaos.
My concern is more for what happens in the days, weeks, months afterwards. I gave an example over the weekend of one particular example in my industry.
But you may very well be right and it could be worse. We are in butterfly-chaos territory here, aren’t we? Certainly, doctors and food retailers are concerned and I’d trust what they say more than the government.
If ministers are lying to us about the potential for food shortages as a result of their policies, I think people should be very concerned.
We are still nearly two months away from a No Deal Brexit. I think it would be entirely prudent for people to build up some reserves of food during that period. Yet Matt Hancock publicly told people they shouldn't do so. I think that is the height of irreponsibility. If people die as a result of this reckless policy, I think he and others should be held to account.
We do not have a responsible grown up government.
I felt that Britain had quite a grown up thoughtful political culture, and it was one reason I was - and to a certain extent still am - quite sceptical about the EU project. (Note: IMO there is a difference between being Eurosceptic and a Brexiteer.) But the last few years have been quite an eye opener. The extent of the frivolousness and a fundamental lack of seriousness in our politicians, with a few rare exceptions, has been shocking.0 -
Feel's a lot like Alastair's mate Paul Masterton is lining up to dutifully vote for Hard Brexit when the time comes.0
-
And polling predicted a massive May majority in 2017.JSpring said:
Polling of various forms predicted an Ed Miliband-led government in 2015.Nigel_Foremain said:
Surprise surprise. What a bummer for HYUFD et al. Boris not making a blind bit of difference over his super-competent predecessor! What a bunch of over confident twats! So they have another election, it is a hung parliament. What then Mr Cummy-Biscuit?williamglenn said:
Multilevel regression. It's the same kind of polling that accurately predicted results like Labour winning Canterbury in 2017.SouthamObserver said:What's an MRP poll?
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1168546988205518850
We don't know what will happen. It may be the LDs wither during the election campaign, limiting Labour losses to the Conservatives. It may be that Ms Swinson and Mr Corbyn and whoever is running the Greens, split the Remain vote, and Mr Johnson ends up with a handsome majority.
We simply don't know.0 -
In this I would defend them - that convention has not been as widely adhered to as people pretend it has, it is not cast iron by any means and it is a shame the LDs said theyd stand against Bercow then didnt.Nigel_Foremain said:
Breaching a long held convention would be just the thing that one should expect from the Conservative In Name Only Party. I wonder what they will do if the monarchy becomes inconvenient, or the House of Lords?GIN1138 said:
I'm sure Boris and Cummings will run a Con candidate against him.Scott_P said:
Were you up for Bercow?0 -
That'll do!AndyJS said:Martin Baxter has just updated his polling average and seats forecast.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Con 356, Lab 188, LD 34, SNP 50.
0 -
Or about whether there would be two dozen sitting MPs standing as Independent Anti-No Deal Conservatives - for example?MarqueeMark said:
I wonder what assumptions they made about the Brexit Party standing candidates?SouthamObserver said:What's an MRP poll?
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/11685469882055188500 -
But if they have assumed that the Brexit Party stands candidtaes, that is the worst case scenario. Even if Farage tries his spoiler routine.rcs1000 said:
If the Alliance surge in Northern Ireland actually translates into them winning seats, thenSouthamObserver said:What's an MRP poll?
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1168546988205518850
So, Con + DUP would be about three seats below Lab + SNP + LD + Green + PC + Alliance.
"Strong and stable" would not be the best description of that outcome.
If he doesn't.....0 -
My point is that the Conservatives would need to elect one of their own MPs to become speaker, but in doing so, they effectively lose said MP.Alanbrooke said:
wouldnt he just switch party ?rcs1000 said:
In a seat where John Stevens beat Nigel Farage, and the Labour and LibDems won't be standing...AlastairMeeks said:
In a seat where Remain tallied a majority at the referendum, the Conservatives don't look particularly well-placed to evict an MP who seems well enough liked locally.The_Taxman said:
Yes, Bercow would win. But I struggle to se how he could remain Speaker in a situation where the party of government (assuming a Conservative victory) ran against him.
Elevation to the Lords is, of course, the usual thing. But is it "writ in stone", or could he cast aside convention and return to the backbenches as an independent? In which case, the Conservatives could lose end up effectively losing another seat.
Opposition would be +1 of Bercow,
Government would be -1 of the new Speaker,
Unless the government could force Bercow up to the Lords, and therefore get a by-election.0 -
He is wrong..LDs to get over 50AndyJS said:Martin Baxter has just updated his polling average and seats forecast.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Con 356, Lab 188, LD 34, SNP 50.0 -
I thought passing a motion of the commons was very quick?not_on_fire said:Wouldn’t it be delicious if there was no time to debate the vote to dissolve Parliament due to the progrogation?
0 -
Chris said:
You think there won't be intimate searches?AlastairMeeks said:
Taking two phones solves that problem.CarlottaVance said:
There’s intimate. And then there’s sexual assault.
But I see that @NickPalmer has confirmed that there’s nothing to stop you bringing in half a dozen of the things if you want.0 -
Sure, if Farage doesn't stand, then that helps a lot.MarqueeMark said:
But if they have assumed that the Brexit Party stands candidtaes, that is the worst case scenario. Even if Farage tries his spoiler routine.rcs1000 said:
If the Alliance surge in Northern Ireland actually translates into them winning seats, thenSouthamObserver said:What's an MRP poll?
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1168546988205518850
So, Con + DUP would be about three seats below Lab + SNP + LD + Green + PC + Alliance.
"Strong and stable" would not be the best description of that outcome.
If he doesn't.....
The Conservative Party's official position is WA - Backstop, and if we can't have that, then No Deal. The Brexit Party's position is that the WA (even without the Backstop) is the work of the Devil.
So what does Farage get out of not standing? Unless there was some kind of pact, where the Conservatives stood aside in (say) five Leave-y Labour seats, then I don't see why he would, given he hates the Conservatives prefererred outcome.0 -
Boris Johnson to make a statement around 6pm.0
-
Crest or no crest?TheScreamingEagles said:Boris Johnson to make a statement around 6pm.
2 -
https://twitter.com/KatySearle/status/1168561725102338048 look for the crest at 6.00 pm.2
-
Whatever your views on Brexit, it is very hard to reconcile that speech to today's political landscape.Stark_Dawning said:
That actually brings a tear to my eye. Back then there was a least some romance and optimism in aspects of Brexit. These days it's just grubby politics and smart arsery - solely about Cummings's one-upmanship and Boris's career.Scott_P said:0 -
Or be a bit cannier and spend a lot of time in the ladies touching up your lipstick.Beibheirli_C said:
Yes. Just tweet it as you leave the building after they hand the phone back to you.Cyclefree said:
It is so so easy to get round that. Unbelievably easy.Chris said:
No doubt. Sheep.Beibheirli_C said:
Anyone who does that may run afoul of the new Cumming Directive and be deselectedChris said:
Amazing that people are such absolute sheep. I don't have a mobile phone, but if I did, and someone told me I wouldn't be allowed to attend a social event without handing it over, I should find something else to do very quickly. Pitiful.CarlottaVance said:
Duh!
0 -
Interesting.MarqueeMark said:
That'll do!AndyJS said:Martin Baxter has just updated his polling average and seats forecast.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Con 356, Lab 188, LD 34, SNP 50.
Con gain 61 from Lab but lose 23 to LD and SNP
Lab lose 74 (to Con, LD, SNP)
LD gain 22 (from Con, Lab, Plaid)
SNP gain 16 (from Con and Lab) but lose Fife NE
Plaid lose 1 to LD
Alliance gain 1 from DUP
0 -
#CrestWatchTheScreamingEagles said:Boris Johnson to make a statement around 6pm.
0 -
Statement outside Downing St at 60
-
Interesting that they defined the wording of the letter.SouthamObserver said:0 -
Beth Rigby says her sources say it's not GE announcement.RobD said:0 -
https://twitter.com/RochdaleHerald/status/1168562729747173377 wry observation from 'local' paper.0
-
Larry the cat to be expelled from the Conservative Party after refusing to leave 10 Downing Street by 31st October ??TheScreamingEagles said:Boris Johnson to make a statement around 6pm.
1 -
crest fallen?JBriskinindyref2 said:
Beth Rigby says her sources say it's not GE announcement.RobD said:0 -
The big question is: will 434 MPs support an early election?0
-
Con 62 Seat Majority (biggest Con majority since 1987) - that would get the job done.MarqueeMark said:
That'll do!AndyJS said:Martin Baxter has just updated his polling average and seats forecast.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Con 356, Lab 188, LD 34, SNP 50. 0 -
I am assuming that you get your bag emptied on the door. I suppose you could slip a tiny one on the makeup bag, but I am sure they have x-ray machines for security scanning... *BEEP!*Cyclefree said:
Or be a bit cannier and spend a lot of time in the ladies touching up your lipstick.Beibheirli_C said:
Yes. Just tweet it as you leave the building after they hand the phone back to you.Cyclefree said:
It is so so easy to get round that. Unbelievably easy.Chris said:
No doubt. Sheep.Beibheirli_C said:
Anyone who does that may run afoul of the new Cumming Directive and be deselectedChris said:
Amazing that people are such absolute sheep. I don't have a mobile phone, but if I did, and someone told me I wouldn't be allowed to attend a social event without handing it over, I should find something else to do very quickly. Pitiful.CarlottaVance said:
Duh!
No... I would just make notes of the salient points and be tweeting them before the car was out of Downing St.0 -
The point is that no one knows what will happen, once we get into an election campaign!MarqueeMark said:
But if they have assumed that the Brexit Party stands candidtaes, that is the worst case scenario. Even if Farage tries his spoiler routine.rcs1000 said:
If the Alliance surge in Northern Ireland actually translates into them winning seats, thenSouthamObserver said:What's an MRP poll?
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1168546988205518850
So, Con + DUP would be about three seats below Lab + SNP + LD + Green + PC + Alliance.
"Strong and stable" would not be the best description of that outcome.
If he doesn't.....
Maybe it will turn into a Brexiteers' wet dream. Maybe the electorate will be terrified by five weeks' discussion of No Deal.
The point is that Johnson was elected in July with something close to a majority in the Commons, and we were told he held all the cards and couldn't be stopped from forcing a No Deal Brexit.
But now he's (apparently) opting for an election, not on the basis of polls indicating a landslide victory, as Theresa May mistakenly did, but on the basis of polls showing saying it's too close to call, and leaving everyone scurrying around trying to work out what assumptions the projections are based on.0 -
Well I'm fifty quid down on the day indeed.dr_spyn said:
crest fallen?JBriskinindyref2 said:
Beth Rigby says her sources say it's not GE announcement.RobD said:0 -
rcs1000 said:
Morning all.
I think Boris Johnson's plan, through all of this, has been to get an election without being accused of being opportunistic about it. His goal is to unite the Brexit vote, by promising to go No Deal if necessary, and to use this to secure a working majority. With said majority, he hopes to secure something that looks like the WA, only with (perhaps) an extended Implementation period or something else that renders the backstop a non-issue.
Agreed on the former, I've been assuming that for a while.
The latter ….. more of a hope of mine than a real belief. He's certainly quite capable of turning around and flat out betraying the kippers/spartans with a WA+lipstick, but I'm dubious he'll have the numbers to pass it.
0 -
-
I hope this isn't going to be a damp squib. 'I urge all members of the House to come together. In the meantime the government will continue its work to make a better Britain for all.'TheScreamingEagles said:Boris Johnson to make a statement around 6pm.
0 -
Will you do a Paddy and eat your hat if they don't get 50?timmo said:
He is wrong..LDs to get over 50AndyJS said:Martin Baxter has just updated his polling average and seats forecast.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Con 356, Lab 188, LD 34, SNP 50. 0 -
Sky calling it a damp squib. Or "Doing a Theresa"Stark_Dawning said:
I hope this isn't going to be a damp squib. 'I urge all members of the House to come together. In the meantime the government will continue its work to make a better Britain for all.'TheScreamingEagles said:Boris Johnson to make a statement around 6pm.
0 -
His old Dad must be spinning in his grave.SouthamObserver said:
0
