politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Summary : August 2019
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No deal frothers are so consumed with hubris that the only way is down.0
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looks like we ought to keep hold of those Ken Clarke next PM betting slips...Scott_P said:0 -
Lucky most of parliament are looking after the interests of 60m.CaptainBuzzkill said:
Hammond, Gauke and Grieve were finished anyway.Scott_P said:
Their refusal to accept the democratic will of 17m+ has left them diminished and tarnished such that they are electoral poison.0 -
They are odds on with the bookies...Scott_P said:
In your dreams...basicbridge said:A GE which Johnson will win.....
And this is a political betting site, after all....0 -
I wonder whether there might be just two candidates in a constituency like Rushcliffe: the official Conservative candidate, and Ken Clarke.0
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Believe in Britain mate.Scott_P said:0 -
Nope, as I showed earlier 66% of Anglicans in a scientific poll voted Leave.ydoethur said:
But that's 60/40 Remain, so the opposite of what HYUFD said. However, seems I was mistaken about one:Charles said:60/40 not too different to HYUFD’s estimate
So that makes it 50/50 with HYUFD swinging around more than a priest in a...let's not go there.Foxy said:Point of order!
@Foxy is a Nonconformist, and not in the C of E.
End of conversation
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/09/20/how-anglicans-tipped-the-brexit-vote/0 -
Do they really? Who, where, why (and our country meaning Wales, or the UK)?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Tens of thousands do that daily in our country with the EU flag - so naff as well !!!!Gallowgate said:
You can be patriotic but still not care about a few idiots burning a flag. Flag waving is just naff anyway.Foxy said:
There are always a few idiots, but the plethora of Union Flags at #Peoplesvote marches amongst the other flags shows that there are plenty of patriotic Remainers.CaptainBuzzkill said:
I have a feeling you're projecting your sense of right and wrong on to decent people.Gallowgate said:
People don’t give a sh*t mate. It’s just a flag and incredibly unbritish to get your knickers in a twist over.0 -
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The process is to wait until I post, then sneakily do a new thread immediately after I post it.Scott_P said:
Fill your boots.basicbridge said:Tories 6/4 to have an overall majority....
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The dark nights election will soon be upon us....
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We may get an election before the clocks go back.MarqueeMark said:The dark nights election will soon be upon us....
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https://twitter.com/JenWilliamsMEN/status/1168271709780303873Gallowgate said:Believe in Britain mate.
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Every day in demonstration around the HOC against brexit, all over the country this last weekend, and by Country I mean Great BritainIshmael_Z said:
Do they really? Who, where, why (and our country meaning Wales, or the UK)?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Tens of thousands do that daily in our country with the EU flag - so naff as well !!!!Gallowgate said:
You can be patriotic but still not care about a few idiots burning a flag. Flag waving is just naff anyway.Foxy said:
There are always a few idiots, but the plethora of Union Flags at #Peoplesvote marches amongst the other flags shows that there are plenty of patriotic Remainers.CaptainBuzzkill said:
I have a feeling you're projecting your sense of right and wrong on to decent people.Gallowgate said:
People don’t give a sh*t mate. It’s just a flag and incredibly unbritish to get your knickers in a twist over.0 -
The "frothers" are mainly remainers (most of them seemingly on this site).Gallowgate said:No deal frothers are so consumed with hubris that the only way is down.
Night night - an hour in the echo chamber is quite long enough.....0 -
Hammond voted for A50 and the deal.CaptainBuzzkill said:
Hammond, Gauke and Grieve were finished anyway.Scott_P said:
Their refusal to accept the democratic will of 17m+ has left them diminished and tarnished such that they are electoral poison.
You are literally accusing him of thought crime, which might not make you the good guy here.0 -
I assume same in Calais but that is not mentionedGallowgate said:
Believe in Britain mate.Scott_P said:0 -
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Ken is standing downAndyJS said:I wonder whether there might be just two candidates in a constituency like Rushcliffe: the official Conservative candidate, and Ken Clarke.
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I suspect the bookies have a rather better feel for the odds than you do.Scott_P said:
Fill your boots.basicbridge said:Tories 6/4 to have an overall majority....
Tip - the red mist is not a good lens through which to see these things....0 -
Fascinating to watch men (and perhaps women) who voted for the WA three times purged.
Boris (or perhaps Cummings) is ruthless in a way we actually haven’t seen before in this country, not in modern times.
What I can’t quite figure out though is how this helps him.
If he doesn’t have a majority how is he going to call an election? The only way it can happen is if he loses a VONC, but I don’t think parliament is going to give him the “satisfaction”.0 -
Yes although of course France is not really dependent on the Dover Calais route for any of its basic supplies.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I assume same in Calais but that is not mentionedGallowgate said:
Believe in Britain mate.Scott_P said:0 -
Welcome Philip.Noo said:
Hammond voted for A50 and the deal.CaptainBuzzkill said:
Hammond, Gauke and Grieve were finished anyway.Scott_P said:
Their refusal to accept the democratic will of 17m+ has left them diminished and tarnished such that they are electoral poison.
You are literally accusing him of thought crime, which might not make you the good guy here.0 -
DougSeal said:
You and your fellow diehard Remainers cannot get away any longer with refusing to respect the Leave vote and both Boris and Cummings are rightly prepared to go to war with you in a way May was not when you went to war with her by rejecting the Withdrawal Agreement.HYUFD said:
You cannot get away with that line for much longer. If he wanted any of those those things he’d be pushing for enough time to get them in place - something impossible to do before 31 October. You know there is no “technical solution” as well as anyone or you would have told us what it is by now. It’s just the same tired phrases that mean nothing “Diehard Remainers”, “points based”, “technical solutions”. There is no “technical solution”.DougSeal said:
ls and is free of control from European courtsHYUFD said:
Vote Leave campaignedg Leave voters by ignoring-Benpointer said:
"...what Leave voters really voted for" Now there's a thing.HYUFD said:
In 10 years maybe but weth a points system first as well as doing our own tradeCasino_Royale said:
That's probably the biggest blue and an emergency brake would cover it.HYUFD said:
I woukd be willingCasino_Royale said:Interesting to see on the previous thread that Beverley (a self-professed die hard Remainer) would accept EEA-
It's incredible the way some people are self-appointing themselves as the only true diviners of what 17m people voted for.
https://news.sky.com/story/technological-solution-to-irish-border-issue-could-be-a-decade-away-says-home-office-document-11696337
We already have a “points system” for non EEA nationals that is has failed completely and no proposals have been put forward for a new one that is.
https://capx.co/britains-immigration-isnt-fit-for-purpose/
It’s all empty phrases, all of it. It’s all you have. You can persuade huge numbers of people by telling them nice things they love to hear but you can’t deliver any of it.
Both Macron and Merkel have said they will listen to the technical solution Boris proposes in the next 30 days and rightly so, Withdrawal Agreement minus backstop was the only Brexit option to get a Commons majority and got the support of 52% of voters with Survation this weekend.
We do not have a full Australian style points system for either EEA or non EEA nationals and Boris will ensure we have one exactly as Vote Leave promised in the campaign.0 -
I made no comment on the odds.basicbridge said:I suspect the bookies have a rather better feel for the odds than you do.
I was suggesting you avail yourself of the opportunity to clean up betting on the outcome you are so sure of.
Fill your boots0 -
So. If Corbyn refuses to have an election at Boris’s command, he will be accused of being frit.
Considering the government has constantly told us that the public does not want an election, its not exactly going to cost Jezza any votes.
Therefore, he has nothing to lose. He just needs to make Boris stew.0 -
Who knows, he may change his mind.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Ken is standing downAndyJS said:I wonder whether there might be just two candidates in a constituency like Rushcliffe: the official Conservative candidate, and Ken Clarke.
He seems quite up for anything these days.0 -
I'm in Belfast. It's raining. It's a rainy Sunday night in Belfast and everything is closed.
Poo.
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It is for its exportsBenpointer said:
Yes although of course France is not really dependent on the Dover Calais route for any of its basic supplies.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I assume same in Calais but that is not mentionedGallowgate said:
Believe in Britain mate.Scott_P said:1 -
Ha! What about the EU ref?basicbridge said:
I suspect the bookies have a rather better feel for the odds than you do.Scott_P said:
Fill your boots.basicbridge said:Tories 6/4 to have an overall majority....
Tip - the red mist is not a good lens through which to see these things....0 -
Will dosteve_garner said:
Feel free to add me to the list of Anglican Leavers.ydoethur said:
But that's 60/40 Remain, so the opposite of what HYUFD said. However, seems I was mistaken about one:Charles said:60/40 not too different to HYUFD’s estimate
So that makes it 50/50 with HYUFD swinging around more than a priest in a...let's not go there.Foxy said:Point of order!
@Foxy is a Nonconformist, and not in the C of E.0 -
Buy a 6 pack of Carling tinnies. I hear its delicious.viewcode said:I'm in Belfast. It's raining. It's a rainy Sunday night in Belfast and everything is closed.
Poo.0 -
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They need us more than we need them right?Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is for its exportsBenpointer said:
Yes although of course France is not really dependent on the Dover Calais route for any of its basic supplies.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I assume same in Calais but that is not mentionedGallowgate said:
Believe in Britain mate.Scott_P said:0 -
NEW THREAD
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The Tory Party actually has 2 11% leads and 1 7% lead in the 3 latest polls since Cummings too overScott_P said:0 -
Why quote that at me. I want a deal and of course it always was a nonsense statement by leave. I voted remain by the wayGallowgate said:
They need us more than we need them right?Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is for its exportsBenpointer said:
Yes although of course France is not really dependent on the Dover Calais route for any of its basic supplies.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I assume same in Calais but that is not mentionedGallowgate said:
Believe in Britain mate.Scott_P said:0 -
At this point, the least worst outcome is a GONU led by Ken Clarke which agrees an EFTA-like Brexit and maintains itself until an election in 2022.Gallowgate said:So. If Corbyn refuses to have an election at Boris’s command, he will be accused of being frit.
Considering the government has constantly told us that the public does not want an election, its not exactly going to cost Jezza any votes.
Therefore, he has nothing to lose. He just needs to make Boris stew.
Second best is to for Parliament to legislate a delay in Brexit somehow, and to keep Boris sitting there powerless to do anything, unable even to call an election under the FTPA. He would be Theresified.0 -
Irony of all ironies if trueScott_P said:0 -
Like him or loathe him, he's done more in the last three weeks than May managed in three years.Gardenwalker said:Fascinating to watch men (and perhaps women) who voted for the WA three times purged.
Boris (or perhaps Cummings) is ruthless in a way we actually haven’t seen before in this country, not in modern times.
What I can’t quite figure out though is how this helps him.
If he doesn’t have a majority how is he going to call an election? The only way it can happen is if he loses a VONC, but I don’t think parliament is going to give him the “satisfaction”.
Tactically, I think he's figured out that he *can't* win.
What he wants to do is make a fight of it. Then at the next GE say "I tried, nobody could try harder than me - but the parliamentary maths aren't there. Give me the majority I need and I will deliver Brexit."
This is his best chance of winning a GE, whenever that may be. Goad remainers into thwarting him and hope it'll piss off enough leavers to win him a majority, after which he can do what he likes (which will probably be some variant on May's deal).
It's why I think people who think Dominic Cummings is playing "chicken" with the EU are wrong. The aim isn't to play chicken with the EU, it's to look tough for domestic media.
The calculation is simple. Make it look like he's done everything possible to deliver Brexit, while giving remainers every possible reason, chance, opportunity to thwart him - including withdrawing the whip from rebels - and gamble on the voters returning him with a bigger majority for trying.0 -
Johnson has got to the Crush the Saboteurs stage of the May Brexit trajectory. It took May a year to get there. Johnson is on an accelerated flight path and it's only taken him a month to get to the same stage.0
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If we have an election before a No Deal Brexit, the entire election will be about what No Deal will entail. The Tories will have to promise it will be fine. That’s why if and when they win it will be the last Tory election victory in UK history.0
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All the shops are shut. It's weird. No kebab shops. No 8-til-lates. Just strange groups of youts, wandering around. Hoodies are back, apparently.Gallowgate said:
Buy a 6 pack of Carling tinnies. I hear its delicious.viewcode said:I'm in Belfast. It's raining. It's a rainy Sunday night in Belfast and everything is closed.
Poo.0 -
What I have been saying since the half hearted prorogation. They are desperate to lose control and get an extension.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Irony of all ironies if trueScott_P said:0 -
GODSDAMMIT!TheScreamingEagles said:viewcode said:The process is to wait until I post, then sneakily do a new thread immediately after I post it.
NEW THREAD
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I see it the other way.SouthamObserver said:If we have an election before a No Deal Brexit, the entire election will be about what No Deal will entail. The Tories will have to promise it will be fine. That’s why if and when they win it will be the last Tory election victory in UK history.
Remainer fear mongering has been so hysterical as to make anything other than a disaster of biblical proportions a success.
If there has been one constant over the last 3 years it has been Project Fear overplaying their hand.0 -
Perhaps Boris and Cummings have gone mad and are going to declare themselves "Big Brother" and "Little Brother" and rule by diktat?Gardenwalker said:Fascinating to watch men (and perhaps women) who voted for the WA three times purged.
Boris (or perhaps Cummings) is ruthless in a way we actually haven’t seen before in this country, not in modern times.
What I can’t quite figure out though is how this helps him.
If he doesn’t have a majority how is he going to call an election? The only way it can happen is if he loses a VONC, but I don’t think parliament is going to give him the “satisfaction”.
However, "Yorick" and "Walter Mitty" might be more appropriate titles
Doublespeak will become the norm. "Minority" now means "Majority"0 -
I would love to believe this but you even have Big G and his son-in-law practically begging for a No Deal at this point.SouthamObserver said:If we have an election before a No Deal Brexit, the entire election will be about what No Deal will entail. The Tories will have to promise it will be fine. That’s why if and when they win it will be the last Tory election victory in UK history.
Cummings knows how to manage the media and various useful idiots in a way that the varying forces of Remain just can’t compete with.0 -
Utter crap. There will always be a right of centre party in the UK and that party will always form a government at some point.SouthamObserver said:If we have an election before a No Deal Brexit, the entire election will be about what No Deal will entail. The Tories will have to promise it will be fine. That’s why if and when they win it will be the last Tory election victory in UK history.
The only way there would never be another Tory election victory is if the Tories did not deliver Brexit and the Brexit Party replaced them as the main party of the right0 -
...or if the UK ceases to existHYUFD said:
Utter crap. There will always be a right of centre party in the UK and that party will always form a government at some point.SouthamObserver said:If we have an election before a No Deal Brexit, the entire election will be about what No Deal will entail. The Tories will have to promise it will be fine. That’s why if and when they win it will be the last Tory election victory in UK history.
The only way there would never be another Tory election victory is if the Tories did not deliver Brexit and the Brexit Party replaced them as the main party of the right0
